42015, XVIII, 2
Ekonomie
DOI: 10.15240/ ul/001/2015-2-001
In oduc ion
Benefi s o globaliza ion in he economy o
he coun y is a con en ious issue no only in
gene al public bu also among academics
and p o essionals o he wo ld economy and
in e na ional ade, managemen and ma ke ing,
who hold impo an posi ions in Eu opean
o in e na ional fi nancial ins i u ions [4]. So
a , in mos cases, deglobaliza ion has been
ega ded as a p ocess o diminishing economic
in e dependence and in eg a ion be ween
s a es [16]. Consequen ly, he e m is widely
used o desc ibe se e al his o ical pe iods,
when he fl ows o o eign di ec in es men
(FDI) and he capaci y o in e na ional ade
we e declining due o he consequences o
egional o global economic c ises.
By defi ni ion, deglobaliza ion is concep ually
se in con as o he p ocess o globaliza ion,
hus ailing o admi he mul iple conno a ions
o he la e concep . Beginning wi h he 1980s
o he las cen u y, when he hi d g ea wa e
o globaliza ion became a subjec o conce n,
some economis s and sociologis s implied ha
hey we e ques ioning he posi i e s ance o
globaliza ion, conside ing ha i migh no be
as s ong as i seemed and i would no ha e
long- e m incidence [20]. Discou aged by he
incapaci y o globaliza ion o fi nd solu ions
o some i al issues o he global economy
(such as po e y, unemploymen , decline and
des uc u ing o en i e economic sec o s e c.),
a se ies o esea che s and p ac i ione s el
compelled o wi ness he p o ound deg ada ion
o se e al his o ically cons i u ed economic and
social s uc u es, which, un il hen, seemed
o be unwa e ing. Acco dingly, hey swi ly
p oceeded o he defi ni ion and implemen a ion
o a new e m which, o lack o o he no ions,
was e med “deglobaliza ion”.
“Deglobaliza ion” de i es om
“globaliza ion” by adding he p efi x “de”
[16]. The no ion pe mea ed he economic
discussions wi hou e e ha ing been gi en
a su fi cien ly clea and commonly accep ed
defi ni ion appa en ly in ended as an an onym.
The cu en global economic e olu ions ha e
s a ed ha he globaliza ion p ocess has los
he p opelling o ce i had possessed be o e he
cu en fi nancial-economic c isis. Thus, pe iods
o ela i e decline can also occu a imes and
hey can be associa ed wi h a deglobaliza ion
endency, specifi cally wi h a endency o
eposi ion he global economy on new
coo dina es o e fi ciency and compe i i eness.
Hence, pe iods o e e sal may possibly lead
o deglobaliza ion endencies wi h new ules o
e fi ciency and compe i i eness.
This si ua ion ep esen s o a ce ain ex en
an op ion o su i al and no necessa ily
a plea o e isi ing he age o economic
p o ec ionism, specifi c o many decades o
he las cen u y. Such pe iods in which he
p ocess o globaliza ion dec eased in in ensi y,
ha e been known since he second hal o he
19 h cen u y. They became mo e nume ous
h oughou he 20 h cen u y, especially as
a ollow-up o he ou b eak o he wo wo ld
wa s which immensely des abilized he global
economy. They we e accompanied by he G ea
Dep ession o he 1929–1933s, whose echo
died ou many yea s la e , bu whose e ec s a e
pe sis ing nowadays in one o m o ano he [16].
The p ocess o globalisa ion is closely linked o
ideas o neolibe alism, laissez- ai e economy,
ee ma ke and i is no he esul o egula ed
s a e policy [3].
1. Measu ing Deglobaliza ion
Indeed, one o he cons an issues o economic
heo y and p ac ice e e s o he me hod o
measu ing he deglobaliza ion phenomenon.
Simila o globaliza ion, a se o indices can
be aken in o accoun in o de o e eal he
ECONOMIC DEGLOBALIZATION – FROM
HYPOTHESIS TO REALITY
Că ălin Pos elnicu, Vasile Dinu, Dan-C is ian Dabija
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5
2, XVIII, 2015
Economics
ace s o he phenomenon o deglobaliza ion.
Con empo a y economic esea ch [16]
pos ula es ha he p ocess o deglobaliza ion
can be bes highligh ed by wa ching a leas
h ee main economic fl ows, such as:
 Dynamics o impo s and expo s o goods
and se ices a a global o egional le el, as
an exp ession o in e na ional comme ce.
 Dynamics o expa s’ money emi ance.
 Infl ows and ou fl ows b ough by o eign
di ec and po olio in es men s.
Moni o ing hese h ee mac oeconomic
componen s alone does no gi e a clea
enough pic u e o he globaliza ion p ocess. The
analysis mus es on addi ional in o ma ion,
such as o changes in echnology ans e ,
e olu ion o a i s and non- a i ba ie s o
ade, es ic ions imposed by some s a es on
he ee mo emen o labou , elabo a ion o
adminis a i e ac s mean o encou age he
pu chase and consump ion o local goods,
subsidies o e ed o p o ec he ag icul u al
sec o e c. [6]. Many o hese le e ages a e
ac i a ed especially du ing pe iods o economic
c isis. In his ega d, conclusi e e idence ollows
om he eac ion o highly de eloped coun ies
(Japan, USA, Ge many, F ance, UK e c.) o
he nega i e e ec s o he economic-fi nancial
c isis be ween 2008 and 2010. These ha e
con ibu ed in di e en ways o some d awback
in he p ocess o globaliza ion. This may be
connec ed wi h s agna ion o e en ecession in
some economies (cu en ly obse ed in some
s a es o he Eu opean Union (EU), and also
in o he egions o he global economy). S ill, i
would be w ong o a ibu e hese changes only
o economic c ises. O he e en s, such as na u al
and economic disas e s, majo a med confl ic s,
e c., can con ibu e o his de elopmen .
Some esea che s [11], [14], [30] poin
ou in ecen s udies ha wi hin he las 10–20
yea s, deglobaliza ion phenomena ha e in
ac su aced mo e in ensi ely a a global
le el. A leas he las wa e o globaliza ion
shows a ypical endencies when compa ed
o he o me ones [24]. The exis ence o
such a p ocess was confi med in 2013, when
he Swiss Economic Ins i u e (SEI, Zü ich,
Swi ze land) published he so-called Index o
Globaliza ion [25]. Basically, his index co e s
a wide ange o issues, including no only
he economic bu also he social, poli ical and
cul u al globaliza ion. The index highligh s he
globaliza ion le el o a na ional economy, aking
in o conside a ion he o e men ioned main
economic fl ows, as well as he mac oeconomic
policy ins umen s os e ed by go e nmen s.
E en i he phenomenon o globaliza ion is
e y di fi cul o cap u e in numbe s and ables
[4], some au ho s poin ou ha he globaliza ion
index is based on 25 a iables [21], o
1970–2011 and calcula ed o 207 coun ies
[23]. This allows o indi ec obse a ion o he
deglobaliza ion p ocess a ce ain pe iods o
ime. While he social dimension efl ec s he
ex en o dissemina ion o in o ma ion and ideas,
he poli ical one e e s o he le el o poli ical
coope a ion be ween s a es, bu undoub edly
he mos impo an dimension emains he
economic one, as i helps in es ima ing some o
he consequences o he economic phenomena
on he global ma ke [12].
The necessa y da a o he index a e
a ailable up o 2011. The analysis ocuses
on he consequences o he mos ecen
economic-fi nancial c isis on he slowdown
o he globaliza ion p ocess. In ou opinion,
such a p ocess could be conside ed a s a o
deglobaliza ion. S ill, i s e ec s would be sho -
e m. The ela i e slowdown o he globaliza ion
p ocess was mainly expe ienced by he
de eloped s a es, e.g. membe s o OECD. Fo
hese coun ies i was la ely epo ed ha he
in eg a ion p ocess in o he wo ld economy had
been s agna ing. I is e y in e es ing ha a he
op o he mos globalized s a es, Singapo e has
achie ed he highes sco e, o a while, and hen
came second o I eland [24]. They we e closely
ollowed by Belgium and he Ne he lands [21].
O he economically de eloped s a es u he
dis ance hemsel es om he op – 10, such as:
Canada – posi ion 12, Swi ze land – 11, I alia –
22, Ge many – 26, and he USA ba ely 32, on
a scale om 1 o 100 [21]. We g adually no ice
ha many de eloped coun ies los hei high
alua ion acco ding o he globaliza ion index
e en ually eco e ed a e 2010. De eloping
coun ies end o keep he lowe posi ions o
he index, weakly an icipa ing any possibili y o
majo upg ading on he index.
The posi ions aken by hese coun ies
efl ec he syne gic infl uence, a conglome a e o
all dimensions, wi hou making a clea dis inc ion
be ween hem. The syne gis ic e ec s o hese
dimensions a e shown in fi gu e 1, which indica es
he e olu ion o he economic globaliza ion
index du ing 1980–2011. Resea che s om he
SEI s a e ha he globaliza ion p ocess has
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62015, XVIII, 2
Ekonomie
been isibly slowed down all o e he wo ld
as a consequence o he cu en economic-
fi nancial c isis, as compa ed o he p e-c isis
pe iod [25]. S ill we don’ ha e o o ge ha
globaliza ion is pa ially de e mined by his o ical
con ex o a coun y and o he specifi c coun y
condi ions [3].
As fi gu e 1 indica es, he globaliza ion
index highligh s a sligh dec ease o he pace
o economic globaliza ion a e 2007. And his is
conside ed o be a end owa ds deglobaliza ion.
Walden Bello is among hose who ha e no iced
he eme gence o he economic deglobaliza ion
p ocess s a ing in 2004 [1]. He men ions
he so-called “decons uc ion”, la e e med
“deglobaliza ion” in a plu alis wo ld [1]. In
his opinion, deglobaliza ion desc ibes he
means used by de eloping s a es in o de
o p omo e hei local in e es s, a he cos
o he ones endo sed by he suppo e s o
globaliza ion. The deglobaliza ion p ocess
is no necessa ily connec ed o he e ec s
c ea ed by he economic o fi nancial c ises,
bu i may also be due o o he causes (sha p
d op in global demand, na u al disas e s, a med
confl ic s e c.). In suppo o his claims, Bello
no ices he a e shock caused by he G ea
Dep ession o 1929–1933 o he Asian fi nancial
c isis o 1997 [1]. We hink ha he cu en
economic dep ession as a consequence o he
fi nancial c isis o 2007 and 2008 confi ms his
concep ions.
The au ho unde lines ha “… he p og ess
o global capi alism is ma ked no only by he
sho - e m business cycles, bu also by he
long- e m ones, especially by he supe -cycles
men ioned by Kond a ie a long ime ago” [1].
Wi hin such long wa es, sp eading o e 50–60
yea s, se e al pe iods o c isis can dis o
he globaliza ion p ocess, bu also gene a e
ac o s a ou able o globaliza ion. The cyclic
cha ac e o globaliza ion and deglobaliza ion
has also been obse ed by o he esea che s
[11], o e a long pe iod o ime. The e a e
in e ac ions wi h he global ci cui o alues,
as o he size o ade, capi al mo emen ,
balance o ex e nal paymen s and in e na ional
echnology ans e . Thus, he deglobaliza ion
p ocess is opposed o he p ocess o inc easing
in eg a ion o ma ke s and p oduc ion, which
does no only mean less global economy,
bu also mo e genuine coope a ion be ween
s a es. This should be based on fi nancial and
echnological ag eemen s, o secu e economic
compe i i eness o all coun ies. In he long un,
such unbalanced de elopmen s can gene a e
in empe a e en ichmen o some na ions,
espec i ely he impo e ishmen o some
o he s [1].
Hence, deglobaliza ion also means c ea ing
leeway so ha each coun y can de elop i s own
economic s a egy in acco dance wi h i s cul u al
and social alues, i s economic necessi ies
and possibili ies o sus ainable de elopmen
Fig. 1: E olu ion o he economic globaliza ion index du ing 1980–2011, a global le el
Sou ce: [21]
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2, XVIII, 2015
Economics
[13]. Human esou ces like in ellec ual capi al
and ma e ial esou ces ha e o be aken in o
accoun . Deglobaliza ion does no necessa ily
exp ess he mani es a ion o a des uc i e
s a egy dic a ed by he p olonged c isis aced
by global capi alism, as much as i exp esses he
descending phase o he Kond a ie (K-Wa e)
Long Wa e Cycle [19]. The ascending phase o
his cycle began in he 1950s o he las cen u y,
and 30 yea s la e i eached a peak-poin when
he exploi a ion o obsole e echnologies came
o an end. This also explains he sequence o
se e al economic c ises ha ha e weakened
he s eng h o globaliza ion. B eaking he cycle
means fi nding ue al e na i es o he cu en
global sys em, wi h c edible and accep ed
ou comes by all pa icipan s o he in e na ional
ade in commodi ies and se ices.
Bello in ac p oposes he idea o a new
global economy, al hough i s chances a e
ague. The deglobaliza ion p ocess is s ill in
i s ini ial phase. I will no end up in au a chy
bu in new na ional so e eign y. Deglobaliza ion
hus becomes an e o o “ econs uc ion”
which does no in ol e a wi hd awal om he
in e na ional economy, bu i s “ eo ien a ion”,
capable o emo ing he defi ciencies o
globalized p oduc ion, all he mo e so as he
many ace s o he ac ual sys em a e agile and
unsus ainable [1].
Globaliza ion has o some ime become
an ine i able phenomenon in he his o y
o humani y. The las decades ha e been
cha ac e ized by an enhancemen o his
phenomenon, due o unp eceden ed p og ess
in echnology, communica ions, science,
anspo a ion, bio echnologies, in o ma ics,
ma e ial p oduc ion e c. The cu en s age o
de elopmen o he wo ld economy and he
e olu ion o con empo a y capi alism ans o m
deglobaliza ion in o a my h and no in o an ac ual
eali y in ended o impose i sel as a d i ing o ce
in he nea u u e. O cou se, globaliza ion has
b ough o h ad an ages and disad an ages. I
has allowed he cheapening o many p oduc s,
i has as ly b oadened ma ke s and especially
access o hem, i has acili a ed dissemina ion
o new echnologies, hus a ou ing economic
g ow h [15]. C i ics o globaliza ion a gue ha i
has led o he g ow h o unemploymen , i has
c ea ed mul iple en i onmen al p oblems, i has
hugely complica ed fi nancial ela ions which
some imes degene a ed in o se e e c ises
e c. This si ua ion has led o he necessi y o
a di e en kind o globaliza ion, om which
all pa icipan s in he in e na ional di ision
o labou can benefi . S ill, he globaliza ion
p ocess could no be s opped, because he
global economy i sel is in ull p ocess o
ans o ma ion. Consequen ly, globaliza ion
does no ep esen a simple economic e en ,
bu a la ge-scale phenomenon.
D ucke has signalled he ac ha in o de
o be success ul in a compe i i e global ma ke ,
knowing one’s cos s is no enough. E e y
company should be able o de e mine he cos s
o he en i e economic chain o p oduc ion
which, in mos cases, co e s a la ge numbe o
companies sp ead wo ldwide [8]. Des uc u ing
such a ne wo k al eady o med h ough
globaliza ion is only a u opian, una ainable and
o ally ine ec i e goal. Cu en ly, p oduc ion,
managemen and dis ibu ion a e o ganized in
ne wo ks. Mul ina ional fi ms ha e he capaci y o
wo k and ac now in eal ime on a global scale.
Ce ainly, no e e y economic ac i i y necessa ily
p esen s a global ea u e. Many ac i i ies keep
hei local o egional ea u es. Howe e , he
majo s a egic ac i i ies a e cu en ly included
in a globalized, in e connec ed, in e dependen
sys em, so ha wha e e happens in he mo ning
in a la ge No h Ame ican bank on Wall S ee is
el in a e y sho ime in Tokyo, F ank u and
London. The sophis ica ed in o ma ion sys em
based on global communica ion ne wo ks
enables e y as esponses o any signal coming
om any economic o fi nancial “co ne ” o he
wo ld [9]. F om his pe spec i e, we hink ha
he e o o c ea e an en i ely ee global ma ke ,
as imagined by Bello, is an illusion, a u opia, an
una ainable goal in he nea u u e.
The Du ch economis an Be geijk s a s
[27] om he obse a ion ha , du ing he las
yea s ma ked by he ecen economic-c isis,
in e na ional ade has unde gone a eal
collapse, compa able o he one eco ded
du ing he G ea Dep ession o he 1930s o he
las cen u y. To a ce ain ex en , he esea che
o e emphasises he in e na ional ade aspec s
du ing he wo pe iods, as well as he comple ely
di e en causes ha de e mined i s b eak-
down. S ill, an Be geijk b oadly demons a es
ha he globaliza ion p ocess mainly caused by
he in e na ional ade fl ows can be summa ized
in wo majo causes: social and economic isks
and unce ain ies caused by he c isis. The
au ho wa ns o he dange o p o ec ionism
e i al ha seems o be “wai ing by he co ne ”.
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82015, XVIII, 2
Ekonomie
The e o e, an Be geijk in e p e s he decline o
in e na ional ade o be a clea indica ion o he
deglobaliza ion p ocess o he global economy.
Hilleb and app oaches his issue mo e
p agma ically [10], conside ing ha he
deglobaliza ion p ocess has s a ed o mani es
i sel om he pe iod 1913–1950 when,
due o he wo wo ld wa s, he in e na ional
di ision o labou was se iously a ec ed,
concomi an ly wi h he some imes excessi e
asse ion o global p o ec ionism [10]. He
analysis in de ail he long- e m e ec ha
deglobaliza ion would ha e on he de eloped
coun ies, membe s o OECD. In o de o
do his, he c ea es wo scena ios: he one o
“deglobaliza ion”, unde s ood as a p ocess
o educing he economic in e dependence
be ween s a es (including in eg a ion), he
o he o “globaliza ion” i sel . Finally, Hilleb and
eaches he conclusion ha he GDP pe capi a
in 2035 could be by 23% smalle in case o
“deglobaliza ion” han by con inuing economic
“globaliza ion” [10]. Concomi an ly, he numbe
o people globally li ing in ex eme po e y will
inc ease.
Hence, no only he ich, de eloped
s a es and he less ad anced ones will su e
om deglobaliza ion, bu also he socie y as
a whole. The infl uences and impac would ha e
di e en p opo ions. Fo example, applying he
globaliza ion scena io on he USA would aise
GDP pe capi a o 66,150 dolla s/yea by 2035,
whils applying he deglobaliza ion scena io
would aise GDP pe capi a only o 60,290/
yea . Hence, a di e ence o -8.9%. In absolu e
amoun , he o al GDP o he USA would ise
o 24,287 billion dolla s i he globaliza ion
scena io we e applied, as compa ed o 19,794
billion dolla s in case o deglobaliza ion [10].
The si ua ion would look e en wo se o he
EU. He e he di e ence be ween he wo GDPs
would be e en mo e p onounced, amoun ing
o -21.3%, o $31,270 pe capi a in annual
a e age, in case o he globaliza ion scena io,
and only $24,600 in case o he deglobaliza ion
one [10].
These da a confi m ha globaliza ion
wo ks in andem wi h economic de elopmen ,
in con as o deglobaliza ion which
impedes i . Mo e se ious is he ac ha
deglobaliza ion gene a es ins abili y be ween
s a es due o weakening he ies o economic
in e dependence, enhancing he p ospec o
unwan ed economic o ade confl ic s. Thus,
deglobaliza ion con ibu es o he educ ion
o ade and capi al fl ows, nega i ely a ec ing
economic de elopmen . Unde he condi ion o
deglobaliza ion (syne gis ic e ec s o a ious
uncon ollable ac o s, d as ic educ ion
o echnology ans e , aw ma e ials and
inno a ions, less dependence on o eign
capi al) s a es impai hei own u u e due o
a dec ease o labou p oduc i i y. This is he
main ac o o economic g ow h and po e y
educ ion. Au a chic de elopmen has he e o e
become anach onis ic a he p esen s age o
de elopmen o he global economy, possible
only o es ic ed geog aphical a eas, wi h e y
small, isola ed s a es.
2. Is Deglobaliza ion a Long-Te m
Phenomenon?
Ca e ul obse a ion o he e olu ion o
in e na ional ade and o eign di ec
in es men s (FDI) can help o fi nd ou whe he
deglobaliza ion is a pe manen o only
a empo a y p ocess. The issue o money
emi ances om expa s wo king ab oad is
a di e en ques ion. Du ing he las 20–30
yea s, a se ies o majo changes ha e ma ked
he e olu ion o in e na ional ade. This allows
us o say ha we a e con on ed wi h a new
s age o de elopmen o he global economy,
namely deglobaliza ion.
The Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion (WTO)
Repo o 2013 enables us o assess he
main endencies in ecen wo ld ade, bu also
se e al possible scena ios o u u e e olu ion
[28], [29]. The WTO analysis emphasizes ha
in e na ional ade in commodi ies and se ices
has expe ienced no able changes wi h espec
o geog aphical dispe sion, s uc u e and
numbe o agen s. These ades ha e been
and a e s ill infl uenced by a se ies o majo
ac o s such as demog aphy, FDI, echnologies
in ol ed in he p oduc ion p ocess, ene gy
sou ces and he necessi y o p ese e
exploi able na u al esou ces, sus ainabili y o
consump ion, anspo a ion cos s, p oduc ion
o mode n means o communica ion, ade
ag eemen s be ween s a es. Subsequen ly, he
in eg a ionis p essu e has enhanced in ensi y
a a es a beyond global GDP. Fo example,
be ween 1980 and 2011, he in e na ional ade
in commodi ies inc eased a a a e o o e 7%
pe yea , up o a alue o 18 illion US dolla s
a he end o he pe iod. T ade se ices, o
abou 4 illion US dolla s by he end o 2011,
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9
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Economics
Fig. 2: Dynamics o wo ld commodi y expo s 1990–2011 (1990 = 100)
Sou ce: [26]
ha e o be added o his alue. In eal e ms
(by emo ing he infl uence o he infl a ion
a e and he a ia ion o exchange a es), he
in e na ional commodi y ade ose, be ween
1980 and 2011, on an almos ou imes highe
le el and wo imes as e han p oduc ion
[29]. Simul aneously, new pa icipan s ha e
eme ged on he global ma ke scene, such
as se e al de eloping coun ies, eme ging
coun ies (Cen al Eu opean s a es and om
he o me So ie infl uence block), as well as
apidly indus ializing economies (China, India,
B azil, he Russian Fede a ion, e c.). In 1980,
de eloping economies accoun ed o 34% o
he wo ld me chandise expo s, by 2011 hey
eached a sha e o 47% [29]. China, India,
B azil, Mexico, e c., pa icula ly a e ou s anding
among hem.
The sp ead o mode n echnology, expo
specializa ion and inc easing ac o mobili y ac-
company a as amplifi ca ion o ade be ween
“Sou h-Sou h” and “No h-Sou h”. In ecen
yea s, many s a es ha e been able o be e
exploi compa a i e ad an ages, especially
as a na u al consequence o he globaliza ion
p ocess [16]. The inc ease o p oduc ion has
played a decisi e ole o economic g ow h, al-
hough he connec ion be ween his and he de-
mog aphic ac o has become mo e complica-
ed in ce ain geog aphical a eas. We es ima e
ha in his si ua ion we can no longe speak o
a “collapse” o in e na ional ade, o o a clea
deglobaliza ion endency due o he decline in
in e na ional ade be ween 2008 and 2009.
All da a submi ed by WTO ha e indis-
pu ably p o en he opposi e. Figu e 2 indica es
ha he capaci y o wo ld commodi y expo
has ollowed an upwa d end be ween 1990
and 2012, wi h a sligh decline be ween 2008
and 2009 caused by he fi nancial and economic
c isis. The same conclusion can be d awn om
he g ow h a es o GDP, he global impo s and
expo s ( able 1).
2009 indeed p o ed o be he mos un o -
una e yea , no only o he g oss wo ld p oduc
(GWP), bu also o he in e na ional commo-
di y ade, measu ed by expo s and impo s.
Al hough 2010 indica ed he p ospec o a as
eco e y, 2011 was s ongly a ec ed by he
so e eign deb c isis in Eu ope and con ac i-
ons in he supply o goods caused by ce ain
na u al disas e s (ea hquakes, fl oods, e c.) o
social un es in some A ab coun ies (Libya, Tu-
nisia, Egyp ).
EM_2_2015.indd 9EM_2_2015.indd 9 3.6.2015 13:08:513.6.2015 13:08:51
10 2015, XVIII, 2
Ekonomie
I is a ema kable ac ha he de eloping
economies ha e been less a ec ed by he
ad e se consequences o he ecen economic
and fi nancial c isis, as compa ed o he
de eloped coun ies ( able 2).
The mos impo an eme ging economies
wi h s ong economic po en ial such as China,
India, B azil, he Sou h A ican Republic, he
Russian Fede a ion, Mexico and o he s, ha e
had an impo an ole in his de elopmen . The
fi e la ges expo e s in 2011 we e China wi h
1.9 illion US dolla s o 10.4% o wo ld expo s,
he U.S.A. (1.48 illion US dolla s), Ge many
(1.47 illion US dolla s), Japan (833 billion
US dolla s), he Ne he lands (660 billion US
dolla s). EU-27 was anked on op o expo e s
by 2.13 illion US dolla s in 2011 [28]. Wi hin
he nex yea s, we expec ha hey will be he
main p omo e s o wo ld ade in commodi ies.
As o he capi al fl ows caused by FDI, hey
we e clea ly less p esen when compa ed o
he p e ious yea s, eaching a o al o 1.35
illion US dolla s in 2012. The se e e educ ion
(by app oxima ely 18%) was in sha p con as
wi h he e olu ion o GDP and in e na ional
ade which eco ded global inc eases [26].
This dec ease efl ec s he defi ciencies o he
global economy and he unce ain ies caused
by he ecen c isis, which de e mined he
in es o s o become mo e cau ious. The epo
p esen ed by UNCTAD s a es ha he eco e y
o confi dence in he business en i onmen will
ake longe han economis s ha e expec ed.
Though mac oeconomic condi ions imp o ed,
FDI migh eco d a conside able leap, eaching
1.6 illion US dolla s in 2014 and 1.8 illion
US dolla s in 2015 [26] despi e se e al isks.
This demons a es he weakness o he global
fi nancial sys em, he possible de e io a ion
o he mac oeconomic si ua ion in some
geog aphical a eas, as well as he slow eco e y
o in es o s’ confi dence. As shown by he da a
analysis included in fi gu e 3, he e was a d op in
FDI a e hei spec acula inc ease om 2004
o mid-2007, due o he economic-fi nancial
c isis. A e 2009 a slowing a e o decline can
be obse ed, he FDI olume eco ding se e al
oscilla ions due o he slow e i al o he global
economy.
The op posi ions o he la ges in es ing
economies a e s ill occupied by he same
de eloped coun ies, o which se e al eme ging
coun ies ha e been added. Thus, he op places
we e ep esen ed in 2012 by he USA (329 billion
US dolla s), Japan (123), China (84), he Uni ed
Kingdom (71), Ge many (67), Canada (54),
he Russian Fede a ion (51), Swi ze land (44),
F ance (37), Sweden (33), Sou h Ko ea (33),
I aly (30), and so on [26]. These economies will
main ain he posi i e end un il and a e 2015,
he wo ld s ock o capi al in es men s con inuing
o ise om 14.706 billion US dolla s, he alue
du ing he 2005–2007 p e-c isis pe iod, o
22.593 billion US dolla s in 2012 [26].
GDP Expo Impo
2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011
Global -2.6 3.8 2.4 -12 13.8 5.0 -12.9 13.7 4.9
Sou ce: Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion, Wo ld T ade Repo 2012, p. 20.
GDP Expo Impo
2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011
De eloped
s a es -4.1 2.9 1.5 -15.1 13.0 4.7 -14.4 10.9 2.8
De eloping
s a es 2.2 7.2 5.7 -7.4 14.9 5.4 -10.5 18.1 7.9
Sou ce: Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion, Wo ld T ade Repo 2012, p. 20.
Tab. 1: G oss domes ic p oduc (GDP) and expo – global impo o goods
(annual inc ease / dec ease in %)
Tab. 2: G ow h a es o GDP and commodi y ade eco ded by de eloped coun ies as
compa ed o de eloping coun ies
EM_2_2015.indd 10EM_2_2015.indd 10 3.6.2015 13:08:513.6.2015 13:08:51
11
2, XVIII, 2015
Economics
Though some fl uc ua ions occu ed o e
ime, FDI fl ows will con inue hei upswing in
he ollowing pe iod, he idea o deglobaliza ion
emaining s ill an illusion om his poin o iew.
O cou se, bo h he emi ing and he ecei ing
coun ies will become mo e selec i e owa ds
he inco po a ion o hese in es men s wi h
espec o di e en economic goals. In addi ion,
we should no o e look he ac ha he isk
o p o ec ionism in he in es men fi eld has
no al oge he disappea ed, especially in wha
ce ain s a egic sec o s a e conce ned (high-
ech indus ies, inno a ion, ene gy, e c.).
Conclusions
Globaliza ion has eached a s age o
de elopmen whe e he agmen a ion o
p oduc ion and he in e na ional dispe sion o
economic ac i i ies ha e eached unimaginable
sha es in he no oo dis an pas . A p esen ,
almos 60% o he global ade consis s o
in e media e goods and se ices ha a e
inco po a ed in o a ious s ages o ma e ial
p oduc ion. This has led o he c ea ion o
a highly complex ne wo k ha was included
in o wha we may call “ he global alue chain”.
Nowadays, his global alue chain has become
he main ea u e o he wo ld economy. Globally,
abou 28% o he o al expo s co espond o
he added alue ha was fi s impo ed, and
hen inco po a ed in o p oduc s and se ices
o be expo ed again [26].
F agmen a ion o p oduc ion has eached
such high le els in some indus ies (au omobile,
elec onics, chemis y, IT, e c.), ha hese
p oduc i e chains can no longe be in e up ed,
wi hou se iously impai ing cos s and economic
e fi ciency on a whole. Each coun y aims a aking
a posi ion as a ou able as possible in his global
p oduc ion chain, and s i es no o isola e i sel .
To speak unde such ci cums ances abou he
necessi y o deglobaliza ion means o condemn
an economy “ab ini io” o unde de elopmen ,
backwa dness, and e en ually o a d op-ou om
he map o he ci ilized wo ld. Deglobaliza ion
p esen ed as a new possible e sion o he
in e na ional di ision o labou , only means he
annihila ion o he syne gis ic e ec s c ea ed
by globaliza ion h ough in es men s and ade.
Ul ima ely, he ele ance o hese wo majo
ec o s o de elopmen canno be e idenced by
deglobaliza ion, bu by in e na ional economic
in eg a ion.
Unde ce ain ci cums ances, he cyclic
na u e o economy could e en ually a ec all
playe s on he ma ke . This, on he o he hand,
could en i le us o ead i as a posi i e ou come
o deglobaliza ion. The cu en economic c isis
is global, wi hou o e ing global solu ions. On
he con a y, each na ion looks o i s own
solu ions. Consequen ly, he global c isis is
p ac ically unde s ood mo e as he sum- o al
o se e al local c ises. When speaking o “local
solu ions o a global c isis”, we a e also dealing
wi h a endency owa ds deglobaliza ion.
Fig. 3: The global FDI fl ows du ing 2004–2012 and hei p ojec ion o he yea s
2014–2015 (US billion dolla s)
Sou ce: [26]
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