Economic deglobalization – from hypothesis to reality

42015, XVIII, 2 Ekonomie DOI: 10.15240/ ul/001/2015-2-001 In oduc ion Benefi s o globaliza ion in he economy o he coun y is a con en ious issue no only in gene al public bu also among academics and p o essionals o he wo ld economy and in e na ional ade, managemen and ma ke ing, who hold impo an posi ions in Eu opean o in e na ional fi nancial ins i u ions [4]. So a , in mos cases, deglobaliza ion has been ega ded as a p ocess o diminishing economic in e dependence and in eg a ion be ween s a es [16]. Consequen ly, he e m is widely used o desc ibe se e al his o ical pe iods, when he fl ows o o eign di ec in es men (FDI) and he capaci y o in e na ional ade we e declining due o he consequences o egional o global economic c ises. By defi ni ion, deglobaliza ion is concep ually se in con as o he p ocess o globaliza ion, hus ailing o admi he mul iple conno a ions o he la e concep . Beginning wi h he 1980s o he las cen u y, when he hi d g ea wa e o globaliza ion became a subjec o conce n, some economis s and sociologis s implied ha hey we e ques ioning he posi i e s ance o globaliza ion, conside ing ha i migh no be as s ong as i seemed and i would no ha e long- e m incidence [20]. Discou aged by he incapaci y o globaliza ion o fi nd solu ions o some i al issues o he global economy (such as po e y, unemploymen , decline and des uc u ing o en i e economic sec o s e c.), a se ies o esea che s and p ac i ione s el compelled o wi ness he p o ound deg ada ion o se e al his o ically cons i u ed economic and social s uc u es, which, un il hen, seemed o be unwa e ing. Acco dingly, hey swi ly p oceeded o he defi ni ion and implemen a ion o a new e m which, o lack o o he no ions, was e med “deglobaliza ion”. “Deglobaliza ion” de i es om “globaliza ion” by adding he p efi x “de” [16]. The no ion pe mea ed he economic discussions wi hou e e ha ing been gi en a su fi cien ly clea and commonly accep ed defi ni ion appa en ly in ended as an an onym. The cu en global economic e olu ions ha e s a ed ha he globaliza ion p ocess has los he p opelling o ce i had possessed be o e he cu en fi nancial-economic c isis. Thus, pe iods o ela i e decline can also occu a imes and hey can be associa ed wi h a deglobaliza ion endency, specifi cally wi h a endency o eposi ion he global economy on new coo dina es o e fi ciency and compe i i eness. Hence, pe iods o e e sal may possibly lead o deglobaliza ion endencies wi h new ules o e fi ciency and compe i i eness. This si ua ion ep esen s o a ce ain ex en an op ion o su i al and no necessa ily a plea o e isi ing he age o economic p o ec ionism, specifi c o many decades o he las cen u y. Such pe iods in which he p ocess o globaliza ion dec eased in in ensi y, ha e been known since he second hal o he 19 h cen u y. They became mo e nume ous h oughou he 20 h cen u y, especially as a ollow-up o he ou b eak o he wo wo ld wa s which immensely des abilized he global economy. They we e accompanied by he G ea Dep ession o he 1929–1933s, whose echo died ou many yea s la e , bu whose e ec s a e pe sis ing nowadays in one o m o ano he [16]. The p ocess o globalisa ion is closely linked o ideas o neolibe alism, laissez- ai e economy, ee ma ke and i is no he esul o egula ed s a e policy [3]. 1. Measu ing Deglobaliza ion Indeed, one o he cons an issues o economic heo y and p ac ice e e s o he me hod o measu ing he deglobaliza ion phenomenon. Simila o globaliza ion, a se o indices can be aken in o accoun in o de o e eal he ECONOMIC DEGLOBALIZATION – FROM HYPOTHESIS TO REALITY Că ălin Pos elnicu, Vasile Dinu, Dan-C is ian Dabija EM_2_2015.indd 4EM_2_2015.indd 4 3.6.2015 13:08:503.6.2015 13:08:50 5 2, XVIII, 2015 Economics ace s o he phenomenon o deglobaliza ion. Con empo a y economic esea ch [16] pos ula es ha he p ocess o deglobaliza ion can be bes highligh ed by wa ching a leas h ee main economic fl ows, such as:  Dynamics o impo s and expo s o goods and se ices a a global o egional le el, as an exp ession o in e na ional comme ce.  Dynamics o expa s’ money emi ance.  Infl ows and ou fl ows b ough by o eign di ec and po olio in es men s. Moni o ing hese h ee mac oeconomic componen s alone does no gi e a clea enough pic u e o he globaliza ion p ocess. The analysis mus es on addi ional in o ma ion, such as o changes in echnology ans e , e olu ion o a i s and non- a i ba ie s o ade, es ic ions imposed by some s a es on he ee mo emen o labou , elabo a ion o adminis a i e ac s mean o encou age he pu chase and consump ion o local goods, subsidies o e ed o p o ec he ag icul u al sec o e c. [6]. Many o hese le e ages a e ac i a ed especially du ing pe iods o economic c isis. In his ega d, conclusi e e idence ollows om he eac ion o highly de eloped coun ies (Japan, USA, Ge many, F ance, UK e c.) o he nega i e e ec s o he economic-fi nancial c isis be ween 2008 and 2010. These ha e con ibu ed in di e en ways o some d awback in he p ocess o globaliza ion. This may be connec ed wi h s agna ion o e en ecession in some economies (cu en ly obse ed in some s a es o he Eu opean Union (EU), and also in o he egions o he global economy). S ill, i would be w ong o a ibu e hese changes only o economic c ises. O he e en s, such as na u al and economic disas e s, majo a med confl ic s, e c., can con ibu e o his de elopmen . Some esea che s [11], [14], [30] poin ou in ecen s udies ha wi hin he las 10–20 yea s, deglobaliza ion phenomena ha e in ac su aced mo e in ensi ely a a global le el. A leas he las wa e o globaliza ion shows a ypical endencies when compa ed o he o me ones [24]. The exis ence o such a p ocess was confi med in 2013, when he Swiss Economic Ins i u e (SEI, Zü ich, Swi ze land) published he so-called Index o Globaliza ion [25]. Basically, his index co e s a wide ange o issues, including no only he economic bu also he social, poli ical and cul u al globaliza ion. The index highligh s he globaliza ion le el o a na ional economy, aking in o conside a ion he o e men ioned main economic fl ows, as well as he mac oeconomic policy ins umen s os e ed by go e nmen s. E en i he phenomenon o globaliza ion is e y di fi cul o cap u e in numbe s and ables [4], some au ho s poin ou ha he globaliza ion index is based on 25 a iables [21], o 1970–2011 and calcula ed o 207 coun ies [23]. This allows o indi ec obse a ion o he deglobaliza ion p ocess a ce ain pe iods o ime. While he social dimension efl ec s he ex en o dissemina ion o in o ma ion and ideas, he poli ical one e e s o he le el o poli ical coope a ion be ween s a es, bu undoub edly he mos impo an dimension emains he economic one, as i helps in es ima ing some o he consequences o he economic phenomena on he global ma ke [12]. The necessa y da a o he index a e a ailable up o 2011. The analysis ocuses on he consequences o he mos ecen economic-fi nancial c isis on he slowdown o he globaliza ion p ocess. In ou opinion, such a p ocess could be conside ed a s a o deglobaliza ion. S ill, i s e ec s would be sho - e m. The ela i e slowdown o he globaliza ion p ocess was mainly expe ienced by he de eloped s a es, e.g. membe s o OECD. Fo hese coun ies i was la ely epo ed ha he in eg a ion p ocess in o he wo ld economy had been s agna ing. I is e y in e es ing ha a he op o he mos globalized s a es, Singapo e has achie ed he highes sco e, o a while, and hen came second o I eland [24]. They we e closely ollowed by Belgium and he Ne he lands [21]. O he economically de eloped s a es u he dis ance hemsel es om he op – 10, such as: Canada – posi ion 12, Swi ze land – 11, I alia – 22, Ge many – 26, and he USA ba ely 32, on a scale om 1 o 100 [21]. We g adually no ice ha many de eloped coun ies los hei high alua ion acco ding o he globaliza ion index e en ually eco e ed a e 2010. De eloping coun ies end o keep he lowe posi ions o he index, weakly an icipa ing any possibili y o majo upg ading on he index. The posi ions aken by hese coun ies efl ec he syne gic infl uence, a conglome a e o all dimensions, wi hou making a clea dis inc ion be ween hem. The syne gis ic e ec s o hese dimensions a e shown in fi gu e 1, which indica es he e olu ion o he economic globaliza ion index du ing 1980–2011. Resea che s om he SEI s a e ha he globaliza ion p ocess has EM_2_2015.indd 5EM_2_2015.indd 5 3.6.2015 13:08:503.6.2015 13:08:50 62015, XVIII, 2 Ekonomie been isibly slowed down all o e he wo ld as a consequence o he cu en economic- fi nancial c isis, as compa ed o he p e-c isis pe iod [25]. S ill we don’ ha e o o ge ha globaliza ion is pa ially de e mined by his o ical con ex o a coun y and o he specifi c coun y condi ions [3]. As fi gu e 1 indica es, he globaliza ion index highligh s a sligh dec ease o he pace o economic globaliza ion a e 2007. And his is conside ed o be a end owa ds deglobaliza ion. Walden Bello is among hose who ha e no iced he eme gence o he economic deglobaliza ion p ocess s a ing in 2004 [1]. He men ions he so-called “decons uc ion”, la e e med “deglobaliza ion” in a plu alis wo ld [1]. In his opinion, deglobaliza ion desc ibes he means used by de eloping s a es in o de o p omo e hei local in e es s, a he cos o he ones endo sed by he suppo e s o globaliza ion. The deglobaliza ion p ocess is no necessa ily connec ed o he e ec s c ea ed by he economic o fi nancial c ises, bu i may also be due o o he causes (sha p d op in global demand, na u al disas e s, a med confl ic s e c.). In suppo o his claims, Bello no ices he a e shock caused by he G ea Dep ession o 1929–1933 o he Asian fi nancial c isis o 1997 [1]. We hink ha he cu en economic dep ession as a consequence o he fi nancial c isis o 2007 and 2008 confi ms his concep ions. The au ho unde lines ha “… he p og ess o global capi alism is ma ked no only by he sho - e m business cycles, bu also by he long- e m ones, especially by he supe -cycles men ioned by Kond a ie a long ime ago” [1]. Wi hin such long wa es, sp eading o e 50–60 yea s, se e al pe iods o c isis can dis o he globaliza ion p ocess, bu also gene a e ac o s a ou able o globaliza ion. The cyclic cha ac e o globaliza ion and deglobaliza ion has also been obse ed by o he esea che s [11], o e a long pe iod o ime. The e a e in e ac ions wi h he global ci cui o alues, as o he size o ade, capi al mo emen , balance o ex e nal paymen s and in e na ional echnology ans e . Thus, he deglobaliza ion p ocess is opposed o he p ocess o inc easing in eg a ion o ma ke s and p oduc ion, which does no only mean less global economy, bu also mo e genuine coope a ion be ween s a es. This should be based on fi nancial and echnological ag eemen s, o secu e economic compe i i eness o all coun ies. In he long un, such unbalanced de elopmen s can gene a e in empe a e en ichmen o some na ions, espec i ely he impo e ishmen o some o he s [1]. Hence, deglobaliza ion also means c ea ing leeway so ha each coun y can de elop i s own economic s a egy in acco dance wi h i s cul u al and social alues, i s economic necessi ies and possibili ies o sus ainable de elopmen Fig. 1: E olu ion o he economic globaliza ion index du ing 1980–2011, a global le el Sou ce: [21] EM_2_2015.indd 6EM_2_2015.indd 6 3.6.2015 13:08:503.6.2015 13:08:50 7 2, XVIII, 2015 Economics [13]. Human esou ces like in ellec ual capi al and ma e ial esou ces ha e o be aken in o accoun . Deglobaliza ion does no necessa ily exp ess he mani es a ion o a des uc i e s a egy dic a ed by he p olonged c isis aced by global capi alism, as much as i exp esses he descending phase o he Kond a ie (K-Wa e) Long Wa e Cycle [19]. The ascending phase o his cycle began in he 1950s o he las cen u y, and 30 yea s la e i eached a peak-poin when he exploi a ion o obsole e echnologies came o an end. This also explains he sequence o se e al economic c ises ha ha e weakened he s eng h o globaliza ion. B eaking he cycle means fi nding ue al e na i es o he cu en global sys em, wi h c edible and accep ed ou comes by all pa icipan s o he in e na ional ade in commodi ies and se ices. Bello in ac p oposes he idea o a new global economy, al hough i s chances a e ague. The deglobaliza ion p ocess is s ill in i s ini ial phase. I will no end up in au a chy bu in new na ional so e eign y. Deglobaliza ion hus becomes an e o o “ econs uc ion” which does no in ol e a wi hd awal om he in e na ional economy, bu i s “ eo ien a ion”, capable o emo ing he defi ciencies o globalized p oduc ion, all he mo e so as he many ace s o he ac ual sys em a e agile and unsus ainable [1]. Globaliza ion has o some ime become an ine i able phenomenon in he his o y o humani y. The las decades ha e been cha ac e ized by an enhancemen o his phenomenon, due o unp eceden ed p og ess in echnology, communica ions, science, anspo a ion, bio echnologies, in o ma ics, ma e ial p oduc ion e c. The cu en s age o de elopmen o he wo ld economy and he e olu ion o con empo a y capi alism ans o m deglobaliza ion in o a my h and no in o an ac ual eali y in ended o impose i sel as a d i ing o ce in he nea u u e. O cou se, globaliza ion has b ough o h ad an ages and disad an ages. I has allowed he cheapening o many p oduc s, i has as ly b oadened ma ke s and especially access o hem, i has acili a ed dissemina ion o new echnologies, hus a ou ing economic g ow h [15]. C i ics o globaliza ion a gue ha i has led o he g ow h o unemploymen , i has c ea ed mul iple en i onmen al p oblems, i has hugely complica ed fi nancial ela ions which some imes degene a ed in o se e e c ises e c. This si ua ion has led o he necessi y o a di e en kind o globaliza ion, om which all pa icipan s in he in e na ional di ision o labou can benefi . S ill, he globaliza ion p ocess could no be s opped, because he global economy i sel is in ull p ocess o ans o ma ion. Consequen ly, globaliza ion does no ep esen a simple economic e en , bu a la ge-scale phenomenon. D ucke has signalled he ac ha in o de o be success ul in a compe i i e global ma ke , knowing one’s cos s is no enough. E e y company should be able o de e mine he cos s o he en i e economic chain o p oduc ion which, in mos cases, co e s a la ge numbe o companies sp ead wo ldwide [8]. Des uc u ing such a ne wo k al eady o med h ough globaliza ion is only a u opian, una ainable and o ally ine ec i e goal. Cu en ly, p oduc ion, managemen and dis ibu ion a e o ganized in ne wo ks. Mul ina ional fi ms ha e he capaci y o wo k and ac now in eal ime on a global scale. Ce ainly, no e e y economic ac i i y necessa ily p esen s a global ea u e. Many ac i i ies keep hei local o egional ea u es. Howe e , he majo s a egic ac i i ies a e cu en ly included in a globalized, in e connec ed, in e dependen sys em, so ha wha e e happens in he mo ning in a la ge No h Ame ican bank on Wall S ee is el in a e y sho ime in Tokyo, F ank u and London. The sophis ica ed in o ma ion sys em based on global communica ion ne wo ks enables e y as esponses o any signal coming om any economic o fi nancial “co ne ” o he wo ld [9]. F om his pe spec i e, we hink ha he e o o c ea e an en i ely ee global ma ke , as imagined by Bello, is an illusion, a u opia, an una ainable goal in he nea u u e. The Du ch economis an Be geijk s a s [27] om he obse a ion ha , du ing he las yea s ma ked by he ecen economic-c isis, in e na ional ade has unde gone a eal collapse, compa able o he one eco ded du ing he G ea Dep ession o he 1930s o he las cen u y. To a ce ain ex en , he esea che o e emphasises he in e na ional ade aspec s du ing he wo pe iods, as well as he comple ely di e en causes ha de e mined i s b eak- down. S ill, an Be geijk b oadly demons a es ha he globaliza ion p ocess mainly caused by he in e na ional ade fl ows can be summa ized in wo majo causes: social and economic isks and unce ain ies caused by he c isis. The au ho wa ns o he dange o p o ec ionism e i al ha seems o be “wai ing by he co ne ”. EM_2_2015.indd 7EM_2_2015.indd 7 3.6.2015 13:08:503.6.2015 13:08:50 82015, XVIII, 2 Ekonomie The e o e, an Be geijk in e p e s he decline o in e na ional ade o be a clea indica ion o he deglobaliza ion p ocess o he global economy. Hilleb and app oaches his issue mo e p agma ically [10], conside ing ha he deglobaliza ion p ocess has s a ed o mani es i sel om he pe iod 1913–1950 when, due o he wo wo ld wa s, he in e na ional di ision o labou was se iously a ec ed, concomi an ly wi h he some imes excessi e asse ion o global p o ec ionism [10]. He analysis in de ail he long- e m e ec ha deglobaliza ion would ha e on he de eloped coun ies, membe s o OECD. In o de o do his, he c ea es wo scena ios: he one o “deglobaliza ion”, unde s ood as a p ocess o educing he economic in e dependence be ween s a es (including in eg a ion), he o he o “globaliza ion” i sel . Finally, Hilleb and eaches he conclusion ha he GDP pe capi a in 2035 could be by 23% smalle in case o “deglobaliza ion” han by con inuing economic “globaliza ion” [10]. Concomi an ly, he numbe o people globally li ing in ex eme po e y will inc ease. Hence, no only he ich, de eloped s a es and he less ad anced ones will su e om deglobaliza ion, bu also he socie y as a whole. The infl uences and impac would ha e di e en p opo ions. Fo example, applying he globaliza ion scena io on he USA would aise GDP pe capi a o 66,150 dolla s/yea by 2035, whils applying he deglobaliza ion scena io would aise GDP pe capi a only o 60,290/ yea . Hence, a di e ence o -8.9%. In absolu e amoun , he o al GDP o he USA would ise o 24,287 billion dolla s i he globaliza ion scena io we e applied, as compa ed o 19,794 billion dolla s in case o deglobaliza ion [10]. The si ua ion would look e en wo se o he EU. He e he di e ence be ween he wo GDPs would be e en mo e p onounced, amoun ing o -21.3%, o $31,270 pe capi a in annual a e age, in case o he globaliza ion scena io, and only $24,600 in case o he deglobaliza ion one [10]. These da a confi m ha globaliza ion wo ks in andem wi h economic de elopmen , in con as o deglobaliza ion which impedes i . Mo e se ious is he ac ha deglobaliza ion gene a es ins abili y be ween s a es due o weakening he ies o economic in e dependence, enhancing he p ospec o unwan ed economic o ade confl ic s. Thus, deglobaliza ion con ibu es o he educ ion o ade and capi al fl ows, nega i ely a ec ing economic de elopmen . Unde he condi ion o deglobaliza ion (syne gis ic e ec s o a ious uncon ollable ac o s, d as ic educ ion o echnology ans e , aw ma e ials and inno a ions, less dependence on o eign capi al) s a es impai hei own u u e due o a dec ease o labou p oduc i i y. This is he main ac o o economic g ow h and po e y educ ion. Au a chic de elopmen has he e o e become anach onis ic a he p esen s age o de elopmen o he global economy, possible only o es ic ed geog aphical a eas, wi h e y small, isola ed s a es. 2. Is Deglobaliza ion a Long-Te m Phenomenon? Ca e ul obse a ion o he e olu ion o in e na ional ade and o eign di ec in es men s (FDI) can help o fi nd ou whe he deglobaliza ion is a pe manen o only a empo a y p ocess. The issue o money emi ances om expa s wo king ab oad is a di e en ques ion. Du ing he las 20–30 yea s, a se ies o majo changes ha e ma ked he e olu ion o in e na ional ade. This allows us o say ha we a e con on ed wi h a new s age o de elopmen o he global economy, namely deglobaliza ion. The Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion (WTO) Repo o 2013 enables us o assess he main endencies in ecen wo ld ade, bu also se e al possible scena ios o u u e e olu ion [28], [29]. The WTO analysis emphasizes ha in e na ional ade in commodi ies and se ices has expe ienced no able changes wi h espec o geog aphical dispe sion, s uc u e and numbe o agen s. These ades ha e been and a e s ill infl uenced by a se ies o majo ac o s such as demog aphy, FDI, echnologies in ol ed in he p oduc ion p ocess, ene gy sou ces and he necessi y o p ese e exploi able na u al esou ces, sus ainabili y o consump ion, anspo a ion cos s, p oduc ion o mode n means o communica ion, ade ag eemen s be ween s a es. Subsequen ly, he in eg a ionis p essu e has enhanced in ensi y a a es a beyond global GDP. Fo example, be ween 1980 and 2011, he in e na ional ade in commodi ies inc eased a a a e o o e 7% pe yea , up o a alue o 18 illion US dolla s a he end o he pe iod. T ade se ices, o abou 4 illion US dolla s by he end o 2011, EM_2_2015.indd 8EM_2_2015.indd 8 3.6.2015 13:08:513.6.2015 13:08:51 9 2, XVIII, 2015 Economics Fig. 2: Dynamics o wo ld commodi y expo s 1990–2011 (1990 = 100) Sou ce: [26] ha e o be added o his alue. In eal e ms (by emo ing he infl uence o he infl a ion a e and he a ia ion o exchange a es), he in e na ional commodi y ade ose, be ween 1980 and 2011, on an almos ou imes highe le el and wo imes as e han p oduc ion [29]. Simul aneously, new pa icipan s ha e eme ged on he global ma ke scene, such as se e al de eloping coun ies, eme ging coun ies (Cen al Eu opean s a es and om he o me So ie infl uence block), as well as apidly indus ializing economies (China, India, B azil, he Russian Fede a ion, e c.). In 1980, de eloping economies accoun ed o 34% o he wo ld me chandise expo s, by 2011 hey eached a sha e o 47% [29]. China, India, B azil, Mexico, e c., pa icula ly a e ou s anding among hem. The sp ead o mode n echnology, expo specializa ion and inc easing ac o mobili y ac- company a as amplifi ca ion o ade be ween “Sou h-Sou h” and “No h-Sou h”. In ecen yea s, many s a es ha e been able o be e exploi compa a i e ad an ages, especially as a na u al consequence o he globaliza ion p ocess [16]. The inc ease o p oduc ion has played a decisi e ole o economic g ow h, al- hough he connec ion be ween his and he de- mog aphic ac o has become mo e complica- ed in ce ain geog aphical a eas. We es ima e ha in his si ua ion we can no longe speak o a “collapse” o in e na ional ade, o o a clea deglobaliza ion endency due o he decline in in e na ional ade be ween 2008 and 2009. All da a submi ed by WTO ha e indis- pu ably p o en he opposi e. Figu e 2 indica es ha he capaci y o wo ld commodi y expo has ollowed an upwa d end be ween 1990 and 2012, wi h a sligh decline be ween 2008 and 2009 caused by he fi nancial and economic c isis. The same conclusion can be d awn om he g ow h a es o GDP, he global impo s and expo s ( able 1). 2009 indeed p o ed o be he mos un o - una e yea , no only o he g oss wo ld p oduc (GWP), bu also o he in e na ional commo- di y ade, measu ed by expo s and impo s. Al hough 2010 indica ed he p ospec o a as eco e y, 2011 was s ongly a ec ed by he so e eign deb c isis in Eu ope and con ac i- ons in he supply o goods caused by ce ain na u al disas e s (ea hquakes, fl oods, e c.) o social un es in some A ab coun ies (Libya, Tu- nisia, Egyp ). EM_2_2015.indd 9EM_2_2015.indd 9 3.6.2015 13:08:513.6.2015 13:08:51 10 2015, XVIII, 2 Ekonomie I is a ema kable ac ha he de eloping economies ha e been less a ec ed by he ad e se consequences o he ecen economic and fi nancial c isis, as compa ed o he de eloped coun ies ( able 2). The mos impo an eme ging economies wi h s ong economic po en ial such as China, India, B azil, he Sou h A ican Republic, he Russian Fede a ion, Mexico and o he s, ha e had an impo an ole in his de elopmen . The fi e la ges expo e s in 2011 we e China wi h 1.9 illion US dolla s o 10.4% o wo ld expo s, he U.S.A. (1.48 illion US dolla s), Ge many (1.47 illion US dolla s), Japan (833 billion US dolla s), he Ne he lands (660 billion US dolla s). EU-27 was anked on op o expo e s by 2.13 illion US dolla s in 2011 [28]. Wi hin he nex yea s, we expec ha hey will be he main p omo e s o wo ld ade in commodi ies. As o he capi al fl ows caused by FDI, hey we e clea ly less p esen when compa ed o he p e ious yea s, eaching a o al o 1.35 illion US dolla s in 2012. The se e e educ ion (by app oxima ely 18%) was in sha p con as wi h he e olu ion o GDP and in e na ional ade which eco ded global inc eases [26]. This dec ease efl ec s he defi ciencies o he global economy and he unce ain ies caused by he ecen c isis, which de e mined he in es o s o become mo e cau ious. The epo p esen ed by UNCTAD s a es ha he eco e y o confi dence in he business en i onmen will ake longe han economis s ha e expec ed. Though mac oeconomic condi ions imp o ed, FDI migh eco d a conside able leap, eaching 1.6 illion US dolla s in 2014 and 1.8 illion US dolla s in 2015 [26] despi e se e al isks. This demons a es he weakness o he global fi nancial sys em, he possible de e io a ion o he mac oeconomic si ua ion in some geog aphical a eas, as well as he slow eco e y o in es o s’ confi dence. As shown by he da a analysis included in fi gu e 3, he e was a d op in FDI a e hei spec acula inc ease om 2004 o mid-2007, due o he economic-fi nancial c isis. A e 2009 a slowing a e o decline can be obse ed, he FDI olume eco ding se e al oscilla ions due o he slow e i al o he global economy. The op posi ions o he la ges in es ing economies a e s ill occupied by he same de eloped coun ies, o which se e al eme ging coun ies ha e been added. Thus, he op places we e ep esen ed in 2012 by he USA (329 billion US dolla s), Japan (123), China (84), he Uni ed Kingdom (71), Ge many (67), Canada (54), he Russian Fede a ion (51), Swi ze land (44), F ance (37), Sweden (33), Sou h Ko ea (33), I aly (30), and so on [26]. These economies will main ain he posi i e end un il and a e 2015, he wo ld s ock o capi al in es men s con inuing o ise om 14.706 billion US dolla s, he alue du ing he 2005–2007 p e-c isis pe iod, o 22.593 billion US dolla s in 2012 [26]. GDP Expo Impo 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 Global -2.6 3.8 2.4 -12 13.8 5.0 -12.9 13.7 4.9 Sou ce: Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion, Wo ld T ade Repo 2012, p. 20. GDP Expo Impo 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011 De eloped s a es -4.1 2.9 1.5 -15.1 13.0 4.7 -14.4 10.9 2.8 De eloping s a es 2.2 7.2 5.7 -7.4 14.9 5.4 -10.5 18.1 7.9 Sou ce: Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion, Wo ld T ade Repo 2012, p. 20. Tab. 1: G oss domes ic p oduc (GDP) and expo – global impo o goods (annual inc ease / dec ease in %) Tab. 2: G ow h a es o GDP and commodi y ade eco ded by de eloped coun ies as compa ed o de eloping coun ies EM_2_2015.indd 10EM_2_2015.indd 10 3.6.2015 13:08:513.6.2015 13:08:51 11 2, XVIII, 2015 Economics Though some fl uc ua ions occu ed o e ime, FDI fl ows will con inue hei upswing in he ollowing pe iod, he idea o deglobaliza ion emaining s ill an illusion om his poin o iew. O cou se, bo h he emi ing and he ecei ing coun ies will become mo e selec i e owa ds he inco po a ion o hese in es men s wi h espec o di e en economic goals. In addi ion, we should no o e look he ac ha he isk o p o ec ionism in he in es men fi eld has no al oge he disappea ed, especially in wha ce ain s a egic sec o s a e conce ned (high- ech indus ies, inno a ion, ene gy, e c.). Conclusions Globaliza ion has eached a s age o de elopmen whe e he agmen a ion o p oduc ion and he in e na ional dispe sion o economic ac i i ies ha e eached unimaginable sha es in he no oo dis an pas . A p esen , almos 60% o he global ade consis s o in e media e goods and se ices ha a e inco po a ed in o a ious s ages o ma e ial p oduc ion. This has led o he c ea ion o a highly complex ne wo k ha was included in o wha we may call “ he global alue chain”. Nowadays, his global alue chain has become he main ea u e o he wo ld economy. Globally, abou 28% o he o al expo s co espond o he added alue ha was fi s impo ed, and hen inco po a ed in o p oduc s and se ices o be expo ed again [26]. F agmen a ion o p oduc ion has eached such high le els in some indus ies (au omobile, elec onics, chemis y, IT, e c.), ha hese p oduc i e chains can no longe be in e up ed, wi hou se iously impai ing cos s and economic e fi ciency on a whole. Each coun y aims a aking a posi ion as a ou able as possible in his global p oduc ion chain, and s i es no o isola e i sel . To speak unde such ci cums ances abou he necessi y o deglobaliza ion means o condemn an economy “ab ini io” o unde de elopmen , backwa dness, and e en ually o a d op-ou om he map o he ci ilized wo ld. Deglobaliza ion p esen ed as a new possible e sion o he in e na ional di ision o labou , only means he annihila ion o he syne gis ic e ec s c ea ed by globaliza ion h ough in es men s and ade. Ul ima ely, he ele ance o hese wo majo ec o s o de elopmen canno be e idenced by deglobaliza ion, bu by in e na ional economic in eg a ion. Unde ce ain ci cums ances, he cyclic na u e o economy could e en ually a ec all playe s on he ma ke . This, on he o he hand, could en i le us o ead i as a posi i e ou come o deglobaliza ion. The cu en economic c isis is global, wi hou o e ing global solu ions. On he con a y, each na ion looks o i s own solu ions. Consequen ly, he global c isis is p ac ically unde s ood mo e as he sum- o al o se e al local c ises. When speaking o “local solu ions o a global c isis”, we a e also dealing wi h a endency owa ds deglobaliza ion. Fig. 3: The global FDI fl ows du ing 2004–2012 and hei p ojec ion o he yea s 2014–2015 (US billion dolla s) Sou ce: [26] EM_2_2015.indd 11EM_2_2015.indd 11 3.6.2015 13:08:513.6.2015 13:08:51 12 2015, XVIII, 2 Ekonomie Re e ences [1] BELLO, W. Deglobaliza ion: Ideas o a New Wo ld Economy. Zed Books, 2004. ISBN 978- 1842773055. [2] CHEBEŇ, J., HUDÁČKOVÁ, L. Infl uence o he global economic c isis on consume beha iou in Slo akia. 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