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BACHELOR’S DEGREE FINAL PROJECT
DOUBLE BACHELOR’S DEGREE IN BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS
POLAND’S EURO CHALLENGE: ECONOMIC & SOCIAL
CONSEQUENCES OF EURO ADOPTION
FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS SCIENCES
UPV/EHU
COURSE 2024/2025
Au o : Ma kel Za andona Cañas
Tu o : Juan Ma ía Ba edo Zu ia ain
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INDEX
1. INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................5
2. THEORETICAL FRAMWORK.....................................................................................6
2.1. The Eu o: O igins & De elopmen ....................................................................... 6
2.2. Condi ions o joining he EU and Eu ozone ........................................................ 7
2.3. Poland’s Pa h o he Eu opean Union .................................................................. 8
3. LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................ 10
4. EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF EUROZONE TRANSITION.......................................... 12
4.1. GDP pe Capi a ................................................................................................... 16
4.2. In la ion .............................................................................................................. 18
4.3. Fo eign Di ec In es men (FDI) ......................................................................... 21
4.4. T ade Balance ..................................................................................................... 23
4.5. Go e nmen Deb .............................................................................................. 29
5. POLITICAL PERSPECTIVES FOR THE DEBATE ON MONETARY INTEGRATION ............ 31
6. CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................... 33
7. BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................... 34
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FIGURES INDEX
Figu e 1: In e es Ra es E olu ion ............................................................................................ 13
Figu e 2: Economic G ow h E olu ion ..................................................................................... 16
Figu e 3: In la ion E olu ion ..................................................................................................... 18
Figu e 4: Fo eign Di ec In es men In lows E olu ion ............................................................ 21
Figu e 5: Slo enia’s T ade Balance ........................................................................................... 23
Figu e 6: Slo akia’s T ade Balance ........................................................................................... 25
Figu e 7: Li huania’s T ade Balance ......................................................................................... 26
Figu e 8: T ade Balance E olu ion ............................................................................................ 27
Figu e 9: Go e nmen Deb E olu ion ..................................................................................... 29
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ACRNONYMS LIST
ECB - Eu opean Cen al Bank
EEC - Eu opean Economic Communi y
EMU - Economic and Mone a y Union
EMS - Eu opean Mone a y Sys em
ERM II - Exchange Ra e Mechanism II
EU - Eu opean Union
FDI - Fo eign Di ec In es men
GDP - G oss Domes ic P oduc
HICP - Ha monised Index o Consume P ices
MRO - Main Re inancing Ope a ions
NBP - Na odowy Bank Polski (Na ional Bank o Poland)
NCBs - Na ional Cen al Banks
OCA - Op imum Cu ency A ea
SGP - S abili y and G ow h Pac
SSM - Single Supe iso y Mechanism
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1. INTRODUCTION
The adop ion o a common cu ency is one o he mos impo an s eps a coun y can ake in
i s poli ical and economic egional in eg a ion. Fo Poland, a coun y ha joined he Eu opean
Union (EU) in 2004, his s ep s ill emains a complex and con o e sial opic. This wo k ies o
analyze he economic implica ions o adop ing he eu o, ocusing on how a ansi ion like his
could impac Poland's economy. I will y o show he possible bene i s and challenges o he
coun y, making us unde s and he possible consequences he eu o adop ion could cause o
Poland.
The coun y’s ela ion wi h he eu o is de ined by i s obliga ions as an EU membe and i s
domes ic ci cums ances. Al hough Poland mus adop he eu o unde i s accession ea y o
he EU, a ixed da e has no been se o do so, and public skep icism has slowed p og ess.
Joining he eu o could s eng hen Poland's ies wi h he cen al EU na ions, inc easing ade
and in es men and lowe ing cu ency isks. Howe e , he e a e ea s o ising p ices, loss o
con ol o e mone a y policy and h ea s o na ional iden i y. These ac o s make he opic
especially ele an a his ime.
To unde s and he economic implica ions o adop ing he eu o in he coun y and o assess i s
po en ial bene i s and challenges o he coun y's economy, a compa a i e analysis o key
a iables such as G oss Domes ic P oduc (GDP), in la ion, Fo eign Di ec In es men (FDI),
ade balance and go e nmen deb was done wi h Slo akia, Li huania and Slo enia, coun ies
wi h simila i ies o Poland ha ha e al eady joined he eu o.
This esea ch is di ided in o i e pa s. In he i s one, he heo e ical amewo k is discussed,
including he his o y o he eu o, he c i e ia o adop ing his cu ency and Poland’s pa h o
he EU. The second poin explains he li e a u e o he opic, p esen ing he s udies ha ha e
been ca ied ou so a and how his hesis will con ibu e o he deba e. The hi d one
analyzes he expe iences o he selec ed coun ies o he eu ozone and compa es hem o
Poland’s end. In he ou h pa , a summa y o he analysis is done, explaining he main
indings o he wo k and he possible consequences o he accession o he eu o in Poland.
Finally, conclusions a e d awn.
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2. THEORETICAL FRAMWORK
2.1. The Eu o: O igins & De elopmen
The eu o (€) is p obably he mos ambi ious accomplishmen o Eu opean in eg a ion in
uni ying economic and mone a y policy among membe s a es. The concep o an Economic
and Mone a y Union (EMU) was in oduced in he la e 1960s o align iscal policies, c ea e a
common cu ency and simpli y ade while s abilizing economies. Howe e , p og ess in ha
sense was delayed due o a lack o poli ical will, con lic o e economic p io i ies and
in e na ional inancial ins abili y. The launch o he Eu opean Mone a y Sys em (EMS) in 1979
ep esen ed a change o di ec ion, in oducing a sys em o ixed exchange a es o i s membe
s a es wi h he objec i e o s abilizing cu encies and ixing he base o u he coo dina ion
in mone a y policies (Eu opean Union, n.d. - A).
The guide o he eu o was es ablished wi h he Delo s Repo in 1989, which desc ibed a
h ee-s age p ocess o achie e EMU. The epo , unde he leade ship o Jacques Delo s, hen
P esiden o he Eu opean Commission, exp essed he need o much s onge mone a y
coope a ion and p oposed a s ep-by-s ep app oach o ensu e economic alignmen among he
pa icipa ing coun ies. The i s s age ocused on close economic coo dina ion, he second
one on es ablishing he Eu opean Mone a y Ins i u e and he hi d one on c ea ing he
Eu opean Cen al Bank (ECB) and launching he eu o i sel (Eu opean Cen al Bank, n.d. - A).
These ecommenda ions we e o malized in he Maas ich T ea y, o icially known as he
T ea y on Eu opean Union, which was signed in signed in 1991. I p o ided he legal
amewo k o he eu o and in oduced he con e gence c i e ia ha membe s a es needed
o mee o adop he cu ency. These c i e ia included condi ions o iscal discipline, p ice
s abili y, exchange a e alignmen and long- e m in e es a e a ge s. The ea y also p o ided
he basis o he c ea ion o he ECB, which would be esponsible o mone a y policy, and
es ablished a imeline o he in oduc ion o he single cu ency (EUR-Lex, n.d.).
A e yea s o p epa a ion, he eu o was inally es ablished on Janua y 1, 1999, as an
accoun ing and inancial ansac ion digi al cu ency. Physical eu o bankno es and coins we e
in oduced h ee yea s la e , on Janua y 1, 2002, eplacing he na ional cu encies o he 12
membe coun ies in he Eu opea Union in wha was one o he bigges mone a y
changeo e s in his o y. On Decembe 31, 1998, pe manen exchange a es we e ixed
be ween he eu o and he na ional cu encies o he i s coun ies o join. Du ing he h ee-
yea ansi ion pe iod, go e nmen s and companies adap ed hei accoun ing sys ems and
dual p icing was in oduced o help consume s unde s and he alue o he eu o. By Janua y
3, 2002, 96% o ATMs in he eu o a ea we e p o iding eu o bankno es and, wi hin a week,
mo e han hal o all cash ansac ions we e being done in eu os (Banco de España, n.d. - A).
F om ha momen onwa ds, he eu o a ea has expanded o include o he membe s a es.
Slo enia joined in 2007, ollowed by Cyp us and Mal a in 2008, Slo akia in 2009, Es onia in
2011, La ia in 2014, Li huania in 2015 and C oa ia in 2023. (Banco de España, n.d. - A). Today,
acco ding o he Bank o Spain, “ he eu o is used by mo e han 300 million ci izens ac oss 20
coun ies, ep esen ing economic uni y and he esul o decades o planning”. (Banco de
España, n.d. - B)
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2.2. Condi ions o joining he EU and Eu ozone
The p ocess o joining he EU in ol es mee ing ce ain c i e ia conce ning poli ical s abili y,
economic eadiness and alignmen wi h EU alues and policies. Two se s o c i e ia make up
he equi emen s: he Copenhagen C i e ia o EU membe ship and he Maas ich C i e ia
o eu o adop ion.
The Copenhagen C i e ia, which was es ablished a he Eu opean Council mee ing in
Copenhagen in 1993, de ines he equi emen s o he candida e coun ies o become
membe s a es o he EU. These include h ee main aspec s: poli ically, coun ies mus ha e
s able ins i u ions ha gua an ee democ acy, he ule o law, human igh s and p o ec ion o
mino i ies; economically, hey mus demons a e he exis ence o a unc ioning ma ke
economy ha can esis he compe i i e p essu e wi hin he EU; las ly, candida e coun ies
mus accep he EY acquis, which in ol es aligning hei na ional laws wi h he EU legisla ion
and demons a ing he adminis a i e capaci y o implemen hese laws e ec i ely (Eu opean
Commission, n.d. - A).
The Maas ich C i e ia, p e iously men ioned, se s he economic c i e ia ha EU membe
s a es mus mee o adop he eu o. In oduced as pa o he Maas ich T ea y in 1991 wi h
he aim o ensu e economic s abili y and alignmen among eu ozone membe s, i included
se e al equi emen s: i s ly, p ice s abili y is equi ed, wi h in la ion a es no exceeding 1.5
pe cen age poin s abo e he a e age o he h ee EU membe s a es wi h he lowes in la ion;
secondly, s able public inances mus be demons a ed ei he h ough a go e nmen budge
de ici ha mus no be g ea e han 3% o GDP and public deb le els ha mus be below
60% o GDP o in a downwa d end owa d his a ge ; hi dly, he e should be exchange a e
s abili y h ough pa icipa ion in he Exchange Ra e Mechanism (ERM II) o a leas wo yea s,
showing no signi ican de ia ions om he ag eed cen al pa i y a e; inally, con e gence o
long- e m in e es a es is necessa y, wi h he a es no exceeding 2 pe cen age poin s abo e
he a e age o he h ee EU membe s a es wi h he mos s able p ices (Eu opean
Commission, n.d. - B).
These equi emen s we e designed o ensu e ha coun ies adop ing he eu o would be
economically s able and aligned wi h he exis ing eu ozone membe s.
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2.3. Poland’s Pa h o he Eu opean Union
Poland’s jou ney owa d membe ship in he Eu opean Union (EU) was a p ocess ha las ed
mo e han a decade and included deep e o ms, diploma ic achie emen s and a collec i e
aspi a ion o in eg a e wi h Eu ope. This p ocess began in Sep embe 1988, when Poland
es ablished diploma ic ela ions wi h he Eu opean Economic Communi y (EEC). A second
ag eemen on ade and economic coope a ion, called “Ag eemen be ween he People’s
Republic o Poland and he Eu opean Economic Communi y on T ade and Comme cial and
Economic Coope a ion”, was c ea ed in Wa saw on 19 Sep embe 1989. This ag eemen
imp o ed economic ela ions by lowe ing cus oms du ies and emo ing limi s on expo ing
ce ain p oduc s, b inging Poland much close o complying wi h he no ms o Wes e n Eu ope
while i was aking democ a ic e o ms as communism collapsed wi hin he bo de s o Eas e n
Eu ope.
On Decembe 16, 1991, he Eu ope Ag eemen iden i ied Poland as an associa ed membe o
he EEC. The ag eemen suppo ed ade and encou aged poli ical dialogue o p epa e he
amewo k o u he in eg a ion. Two yea s la e , in 1993, he Copenhagen Eu opean Council
con i med ha Poland, oge he wi h o he coun ies om Cen al and Eas e n Eu ope, would
be allowed o become membe s o he EU once hey had ul illed ce ain poli ical and
economic c i e ia, which we e he p e iously Copenhagen C i e ia.
Poland submi ed i s o mal applica ion o join he EU on Ap il 26, 1994, du ing he summi
mee ing held in A hens. A he Eu opean Council in Essen la e ha yea , a p e-accession
s a egy was adop ed, ou lining a eas o coope a ion and e o ms necessa y o in eg a ion
(Wallas, 2023). In Janua y 1997, Poland adop ed he Na ional S a egy o In eg a ion (NSI),
which p io i ized ins i u ional e o m, legal ha moniza ion and public educa ion abou he EU
(Eu opean Commission, 1997).
Fo mal accession nego ia ions began in Ma ch 1998 and co e ed 37 chap e s o EU law and
policy. By 2002, Poland had comple ed nego ia ions on all chap e s, esul ing in he signing o
he T ea y o Accession in A hens on Ap il 16, 2003. The ea y was a i ied h ough a na ional
e e endum in June 2003, whe e 77.45% o o e s suppo ed EU membe ship. On May 1,
2004, Poland o icially became a membe o he Eu opean Union, oge he wi h nine o he
coun ies (Wallas, 2023).
In his momen , Poland also en e ed he Eu opean Sys em o Cen al Banks (ESCB), which
includes he ECB and he na ional cen al banks (NCBs) o all EU Membe S a es (Eu opean
Cen al Bank, n.d. - B). Al hough being pa o his sys em, Poland does no ha e o ollow he
ECB’s mone a y policy, as he Na ional Bank o Poland is esponsible o i s mone a y policy.
Ne e heless, as an EU membe , i is s ill linked o he ECB, ha ing o comply he Single
Supe iso y Mechanism (SSM), he amewo k h ough which he ECB supe ises banks in he
eu o a ea and pa icipa ing non-eu o coun ies (Eu opean Cen al Bank, n.d. - C), and
he S abili y and G ow h Pac (SGP), which es ablishes ules o main ain iscal discipline wi hin
he EU by se ing limi s on budge de ici s and go e nmen deb (Eu opean Commission, n.d.
- C).
Despi e i s legal obliga ion unde EU ea ies o adop he eu o, joining he eu ozone emains
a dis an goal o Poland. Donald Tusk, o me Polish p ime minis e and co-au ho o a epo
in 2015 on s eng hening Eu ope’s economic and mone a y union, has no p io i ized eu o
adop ion in Poland, e en i his ecen campaign emphasized close alignmen wi h he EU. The
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economic case o adop ing he eu o is s ong: 75% o Poland’s ade is wi h he EU and he
ola ili y o he zło y has c ea ed unce ain y and aised ansac ion cos s o businesses, as
i s alue agains he eu o has luc ua ed by up o 26% below o 12% abo e i s cu en le el
o e he pas wo decades. Ne e heless, signi ican ba ie s pe sis . Mos Poles emain
agains eplacing he zło y and cons i u ional amendmen s needed o eu o adop ion would
equi e a wo- hi ds pa liamen a y majo i y, which he go e nmen lacks. Fo now, Poland’s
ocus emains on sol ing domes ic challenges, such as add essing judicial independence,
secu ing €25 billion in EU eco e y unds and managing a budge de ici nea ing 5% o GDP.
While adop ing he eu o may help Poland in he long e m, he coun y has achie ed
subs an ial economic g ow h since joining he EU in 2004, wi h GDP pe capi a doubling in eal
e ms, allowing i o su pass some eu ozone coun ies like Po ugal. Thus, i seems like eu o
adop ion is a long- e m goal a he han an immedia e p io i y (Reu e s, 2024).
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4.1. GDP pe Capi a
G oss Domes ic P oduc (GDP) pe capi a can be conside ed he mos impo an indica o o
economic pe o mance, as i measu es he o al economic ou pu o a coun y di ided by i s
popula ion. This helps o unde s and he a e age income, p oduc i i y and s anda d o li ing
in a coun y. S udying GDP pe capi a is essen ial when analyzing he e ec s o adop ing he
eu o because i shows how an economy g ows and how people's incomes change o e ime.
F om my pe spec i e, Poland’s economic g ow h would inc ease a e adop ing he eu o.
Joining he Eu ozone could s eng hen Poland’s economy by a ac ing mo e o eign di ec
in es men , boos ing ade and imp o ing inancial s abili y, all o which con ibu e o highe
economic ou pu . Addi ionally, businesses would bene i om lowe ansac ion cos s and
g ea e ma ke in eg a ion, leading o highe p oduc i i y and inc eased wages. O e ime, as
Poland aligns mo e closely wi h he economic s uc u es o o he Eu ozone coun ies, income
le els could ise, e lec ing an o e all imp o emen in economic condi ions.
Figu e 2: Economic G ow h E olu ion
Sou ce: Wo ld Bank, n.d.
Figu e 2 shows he e olu ion o GDP pe capi a g ow h o Slo enia (g ay), Slo akia (o ange),
Li huania (blue) and Poland (yellow) om 2000 o 2023. The h ee shaded a eas ma k, once
again, he yea s when each coun y adop ed he eu o: Slo enia in 2007 (g ay), Slo akia in 2009
(o ange) and Li huania in 2015 (blue).
The h ee now Eu ozone coun ies ollowed a simila economic g ow h pa e n, expe iencing
cons an inc easing g owh in he ea ly 2000s, a sha p dec ease du ing he 2008-2009 inancial
c isis and a slow bu une en eco e y. While each coun y showed di e ences in magni ude
and iming, hey all wen h ough he same gene al economic cycles, wi h a nega i e in luence
o joining he eu o. Poland, on he o he hand, can be seen o ha e a mo e s able g ow h,
excep ing he las yea s due o hea y economic c ises.
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F om 2000 o 2007, all ou coun ies had as economic g ow h. Li huania and Slo akia had
he highes peaks, eaching 12,41% (2007) and 10,79% (2007), espec i ely. Slo enia also had
s able g ow h be o e joining he eu o in 2007, which closely ollowed Poland. Howe e , he
2008-2009 inancial c isis caused a s ong economic dec ease. Li huania was hi he ha des
(-13,89%), ollowed by Slo enia (-8,42%) and Slo akia (-5,63%). In compa ison, Poland was he
only coun y ha a oided ecession, s ill g owing a 2,55% in 2009.
A e he c isis, eco e y was di e en in each coun y. Slo akia, which had jus joined he
eu o in 2009, eco e ed as e han Slo enia. In ac , Slo enia had a ha de ime a e adop ing
he eu o in 2007, wi h low g ow h a es in 2010 (0,67%) and 2011 (0,45%), ollowed by a
nega i e g ow h in 2012 (-3,12%) and 2013 (-0,96%). Li huania, which joined he eu o la e in
2015, had al eady s abilized i s economy by hen, wi h a g ow h o 3.80% in his yea and
6,09% in he nex one. Poland, he only coun y ha did no adop he eu o and he e o e
s ayed was less a ec ed by he Eu opean deb c isis, had he mos s able economy, a oiding
ex emes and showing s eady g ow h a e 2013.
The COVID-19 c isis in 2020 caused ano he economic down u n, wi h all he coun ies ha ing
nega i e g ow hs excep om Li huania. Slo enia was he mos a ec ed coun y (-4,73%),
ollowed by Slo akia (-2,67%) and Poland (-1,86%), while Li huania had a null g ow h (0,02%).
Howe e , all ou coun ies quickly eco e ed in 2021 due o he ending o es ic ions,
wi h Poland g owing he as es wi h a 9.58% inc ease, ollowed by Slo enia (8.10%), Li huania
(6,15%) and Slo akia (5,95%). Despi e his, he yea s a e he pandemic saw slowe g ow h
due o ex e nal e en s like he Uk aine wa . By 2023, Li huania, he mos ecen coun y o
join he eu o, was he only one wi h nega i e g ow h (-1,05%), while Poland (0,51%), Slo akia
(1,47%) and Slo enia (1,71%) had low bu posi i e g ow h.
E en hough hese economies had simila ends, hei decisions on joining he eu o seem o
ha e nega i e e ec in hei pe o mance. Poland pe o med he bes du ing economic c ises,
a oiding ecession in 2009 and ha ing he s onges pos -COVID eco e y. Li huania had he
bigges changes, wi h he highes p e-c isis g ow h, he deepes all in 2009 and he only
nega i e g ow h in 2023. Slo enia’s economy became less s able a e joining he eu o in 2007,
wi h mul iple yea s o nega i e g ow h a e he inancial c isis. Slo akia, which joined he
eu o in 2009, also slowed down a e wa ds, wi h mo e uns able and lowe g ow h han in he
ea ly 2000s.
I Poland we e o adop he eu o, i s economic g ow h migh become mo e ola ile, simila o
wha happened in Li huania, Slo enia and Slo akia. All h ee coun ies expe ienced s ong and
s able g ow h be o e being pa eu ozone, bu hei pa e ns became mo e unce ain a e
adop ion. Howe e , i is impo an o highligh ha o he ac o s such as global economic
c ises and na ional policies also inc ease economic ola ili y. The e o e, while he e appea s
o be some associa ion be ween eu o membe ship and inc eased luc ua ions in g ow h,
u he analysis is needed o de e mine he ex en o his ela ionship.
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4.2. In la ion
In la ion ano he impo an economic indica o when assessing he ansi ion o he eu o, as
i e lec s changes in p ice s abili y and pu chasing powe . Joining he eu o could be expec ed
o ini ially push he p ice le el in he coun y. As an example, i may wo h emembe ing he
adop ion o he common cu ency by Spain, whe e he ansi ion om he pese a o he eu o
led o a ise in p ices. Then, i Poland adop s he eu o, p ices may adjus o align mo e closely
wi h hose in he Eu ozone, which could lead o an inc ease in he cos o goods and se ices.
Mo eo e , he lack o mone a y policy ha he ansi ion causes would p e en he coun y
om con olling i s own in la ion, which I belie e would cause i s inc ease as well in he long
e m.
In o de o ca y ou his analysis, he Ha monized Index o Consume P ices (HICP) will be
used. This is he Eu opean Union e e ence o measu ing in la ion, and i is p epa ed join ly
by Eu os a , he s a is ical o ice o he Eu opean Union and he na ional s a is ical ins i u es
o he EU Membe S a es (Eu opean Cen al Bank, n.d. - D).
Figu e 3: In la ion E olu ion
Sou ce: Eu opean Cen al Bank, n.d. – E, F, G; Ins i u o Nacional de Es adís ica, n.d.
Figu e 2 p o ides a iew o in la ion ends in Slo enia, Slo akia, Li huania, Poland and he
Eu ozone along he 21s cen u y, wi h each coun y ep esen ed by he same colo as in
p e ious g aphs: Li huania (blue), Slo akia (o ange), Slo enia (g ay), Poland (yellow) and he
Eu ozone (black). The shaded a eas indica e again he yea s when coun ies adop ed he eu o:
Slo enia in 2007 (g ay), Slo akia in 2009 (o ange), and Li huania in 2015 (blue).
Slo enia, which was he i s coun y o he selec ed ones o join he eu o on Janua y 1, 2007,
p esen s di e en pa e ns be o e and a e adop ing he eu o. In he yea s p eceding 2007,
we can obse e ha Slo enia’s in la ion was highe and mo e uns able compa ed o he
Eu ozone. F om 2000 o 2006, Slo enia’s in la ion anged om 8.4% in Janua y 2002 o 2,6%
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in Janua y 2006, dec easing as i p epa ed o join he eu o due o he Maas ich c i e ia ( ecall
sec ion 2.2). The Eu ozone, in con as , had lowe and mo e s able in la ion, s aying
be ween 1,7% and 2,5% in he same pe iod.
A e adop ing he eu o in Janua y 2007, Slo enia’s in la ion s a ed inc easing, eaching 5,7%
in Decembe 2007, while he Eu ozone’s was only 3,1%, indica ing ha Slo enia ini ially aced
s onge in la iona y p essu es han he es o he mone a y union. In ac , app oxima e
calcula ions o Eu os a show ha he eu o changeo e con ibu ed abou 0,3 pe cen age
poin s o in la ion du ing his pe iod (Eu os a , 2007). This empo a y inc ease is p obably a
consequence o he p ice adjus men s ela ed o he cu ency change, such as ounding
e ec s in ce ain sec o s and he psychological impac o swi ching o a s onge cu ency.
Speci ic p ice inc eases we e no ed in ca ego ies such as es au an s, ca es, pe sonal ca e
se ices and household main enance se ices (Eu os a , 2007). Because o all hese ac o s,
Slo enia’s in la ion a e s ayed abo e he a e age Eu ozone a e, he o me eaching o i s
peak in July 2008 wi h a a e o 6,9%, while he la e ha ing a maximum o 4,1% in he same
da e. Mo eo e , his ansi ion coincided wi h he global inancial c isis, which caused a p ice
bubble o explode in 2008, leading o a sha p dec ease in in la ion h oughou 2009 ha
eaching a –0,6% in July o ha yea . In he ollowing yea s, Slo enia had in la ion unde
con ol and close o he Eu o A ea a e age, e lec ing how joining he cu ency change
con ibu ed o he coun y’s in la ion s abiliza ion. In ecen yea s, howe e , in la ion has
inc eased due o he Uk aine wa , which caused supply sho ages, making i each a peak o
11,7% in July 2022.
Slo akia, ou second coun y o adop he eu o on Janua y 1, 2009, p esen s as well di e en
ends be o e and a e he cu ency change. In he beginning o he cen u y, Slo akia
p esen ed la ge luc ua ions, going om a peak o 16,8% in Ma ch 2000 o a 2,2% in July 2002,
o u he inc ease o a 9,5% in No embe 2003. These luc ua ions con inued in he nex
yea s. The Eu ozone, meanwhile, had a cons an in la ion a e, anging om a minimum 1,6%
o a maximum o 2,6%. F om Augus 2007 onwa ds, bo h he Eu ozone and Slo akia s a ed
ollowing simila a es pa h due o Slo akia’s commi men o comply wi h Maas ich c i e ia.
In wha e e s o he ansi ion in 2009, Eu os a es ima es ha he o al e ec o he eu o
changeo e on consume in la ion was up o 0.3 pe cen age poin s du ing he pe iod om
Decembe 2008 o Feb ua y 2009. This impac was in line wi h he expe iences o o he eu o-
adop ing coun ies. Acco ding o hem, unusual p ice inc eases we e obse ed in speci ic
ca ego ies, such as ood, be e ages, heal hca e p oduc s and ce ain housing- ela ed se ices,
bu hese we e no signi ican enough o in luence he o e all in la ion end (Eu os a , 2009).
Las ly, he pos op ion pe iod was ma ked by he closely ollowing o Slo akia o he Eu ozone
a es. Howe e , i is impo an o men ion ha Slo akia has been mo e ola ile han he Eu o
A ea, eaching highe a es in peaks like in Oc obe 2012, wi h a 3,9% and a 2,50% espec i ely,
and in c ises such as he wa o Russia and Uk aine, wi h a 15,4% o he coun y and a 9,20%
o he a ea in he end o 2022 and beginning o 2023, espec i ely.
Li huania, he hi d coun y selec ed o ou analysis, adop ed he eu o on Janua y 1, 2015. In
compa ison o Slo enia and Slo akia, Li huania s a ed he cen u y wi h a much lowe in la ion
a e, being o a 0,9% in Janua y 2009, lowe as well han he Eu ozone one, which was o
1,90% a ha momen . Along he p e-adop ion pe iod, wo main peaks can be obse ed: he
i s one, consequence o a all o in la ion om a a e o 3,2% in Janua y 2002 o a -1,4% in
Sep embe o he same yea ; he second one, ollowed by a cons an inc ease o in la ion om
20
ha momen onwa ds, eaching a maximum o 12,7% in 2008 due o he inc ease in in e es
a es ha ollowed las yea ( ecall igu e 1) , lowe ing in la ion o a –0,6% in Feb ua y 2010.
In he ollowing yea s, Li huania p epa ed o add ess he equi emen s o he Maas ich
c i e ia, being close o he a e age Eu ozone a e om his yea onwa ds.
The eu o changeo e con ibu ed app oxima ely 0,12 pe cen age poin s o he annual
Ha monized Index o Consume P ices (HICP) in la ion a e, ep esen ing a e y limi ed e ec
on o e all in la ion. Mino p ice inc eases we e obse ed in speci ic se ice ca ego ies,
pa ially a ibu able o ounding e ec s, hough hese we e no subs an ial enough o
signi ican ly in luence in la ion ends acco ding o Eu os a (Eu os a , 2015). Ne e heless,
highligh he much highe impac ha he Russia and Uk aine wa had in Li huania, which was
mo e han double han he one o he Eu ozone.
Poland, he non-eu o coun y o ou analysis, p esen s, as Slo akia and Li huania, a downwa d
end in he beginning o he cen u y, going om a 10,1% in Janua y 2000 o a 0,3% in Janua y
2003. A e his big dec ease, smalle luc ua ions can be obse ed in he coun y’s in la ion,
e lec ing ex e nal economic shocks and domes ic mone a y adjus men s. In ac , om 2010
onwa ds, a clea simila bu sligh ly mo e ola ile a e can be obse ed in he coun y
compa ed o he Eu ozone, which sugges s ha Poland is s ongly in luenced by b oade
Eu opean economic ends. Howe e , in he ecen yea s, in la ion inc eased as in he
Eu ozone coun ies, mo e han doubling due o he coun y’s dependence on Russian and
Uk aine p oduc s and he wa be ween hese wo, which made in la ion each a 16,4% in
Oc obe 22.
O e all, he analysis shows ha , al hough he h ee coun ies expe ienced sligh sho - e m
inc eases in hei in la ion due o he cu ency change, he long- e m e ec s esul ed in less
ola ile a es, imp o ing in es o con idence and acili a ing ade. Ne e heless, i can be
obse ed ha inancial c ises also a ec he in la ion ends in wo di e en ways: on he one
hand, hey can educe GDP g ow h ( ecall igu e 2) and, he e o e, in la ion, as obse ed in
he G ea Recession (2009); on he o he hand, hey can inc ease i due o ade bo lenecks
as seen in he Russia-Uk aine (2022) wa . Rega ding Poland, i s in la ion ends closely ollow
hose o he Eu ozone, sugges ing ha , in e ms o p ice s abili y, i al eady mee s he
Maas ich c i e ia o eu o adop ion. This indica es ha i Poland we e o join he eu o, he
main change would be he loss o independen mone a y policy ( ecall igu e 1) a he han a
big inc ease in i s in la ion.
21
4.3. Fo eign Di ec In es men (FDI)
When analyzing he eu o ansi ion, FDI is as well impo an economic indica o since i shows
a na ion's long- e m g ow h po en ial, economic in eg a ion and in es o con idence. FDI
quan i ies c oss-bo de in es men s, which occu when a o eign in es o c ea es o has a
majo impac on a company in ano he na ion, equen ly con ibu ing money, echnology and
managemen skills. Fu he mo e, ends in FDI a e also e y impo an since hey can show
how economically appealing a na ion was bo h be o e and a e a cu ency change.
We may expec an inc ease o FDI in lows in Poland a e adop ing he eu o. One o he main
easons is ha o eign in es o s would no longe ace exchange a e cos s when in es ing in
Poland, making i easie and mo e a ac i e o do business he e. Mo eo e , wi hou cu ency
con e sion isks, in es o s om o he Eu ozone coun ies could ope a e mo e e icien ly,
inc easing hei con idence and encou aging mo e c oss-bo de in es men s.
Fo his analysis, he pe cen age o GDP will be used o compa e FDI ac oss he coun ies
be o e and a e hei adop ion o he eu o, as well as Poland’s pe o mance ou side he
Eu ozone. In his way, how en e ing he Eu o al e ed each coun y’s p e ious ends and
Poland’s ajec o y as a non-eu o membe will be con as ed.
Figu e 4: Fo eign Di ec In es men In lows E olu ion
Sou ce: Mac o ends, n.d. – A, B, C, D.
Figu e 3 shows he long- e m e olu ion o FDI in lows as a p opo ion o GDP in he h ee eu o
selec ed coun ies, ep esen ed by ba s, and Poland, ep esen ed by a line. Being all colo s as
in p e ious igu es, he shaded a eas in his g aph also indica e he yea s when he coun ies
adop ed he eu o.
When compa ing Poland’s FDI in lows o he o he h ee coun ies, bo h simila i ies and
di e ences can be obse ed. In e ms o simila i ies, all ou coun ies expe ienced a decline
in FDI in lows du ing he 2008-2009 inancial c isis. Poland’s d op om 5,83% in 2007 o 3,19%
22
in 2009 ollows he same pa e n as Slo akia, which ell om 5,84% in 2007 o 1,70% in 2009,
and Slo enia, which d opped om 3,92% in 2007 o -0,69% in 2009. Li huania also ollowed a
simila end, dec easing om 6,55% in 2007 o 3,61% in 2008 and u he o -0,96% in 2009,
showing ha he global c isis had a se e e impac on all ou economies. Addi ionally, all ou
coun ies expe ienced a pos -pandemic in es men boos in 2020-2021, wi h Poland
eaching 5,31% in 2021, while Li huania peaked a 7,91% in 2020 and Slo enia ose o 3,59%
in 2021.
Howe e , Poland di e s signi ican ly in long- e m FDI in lows s abili y compa ed o he eu o-
adop ing coun ies. Slo akia and Slo enia saw a long- e m educ ion in FDI le els a e joining
he eu o, as Slo akia’s FDI in lows dec eased om an a e age o 5,24% p e-eu o (2000-2008)
o 2,14% pos -eu o (2009-2023) and Slo enia saw a sligh decline om 2,68% p e-eu o (2000-
2006) o 2,44% pos -eu o (2007-2023). These declines can be a ibu ed o h ee key ac o s:
he s abiliza ion o o eign in es men in lows as he Eu ozone's expec ed economic s abili y
was achie ed, inc eased compe i ion om o he eu o coun ies o o eign in es men and a
shi in FDI in lows owa ds sa e , long- e m in es men s a he han ola ile specula i e
in lows. This shi does no necessa ily indica e an economic weakness bu a he a ansi ion
o a mo e sus ainable in es men en i onmen . In con as , Li huania’s a e age in lows
inc eased om 3,30% p e-eu o (2000-2014) o 3,81% pos -eu o (2015-2023), showing ha
en e ing he Eu ozone helped he coun y o a ac mo e o eign in es men . Poland, in
compa ison, main ained an upwa d end eaching high le els, peaking a 5,35% in 2022. This
sugges s ha keeping i s own cu ency did no nega i ely impac i s a ac i eness o o eign
in es o s. Ins ead, Poland e ained he abili y o implemen lexible mone a y policies while
s ill bene i ing om i s s ong economic ies o he Eu opean ma ke .
I Poland we e o join he Eu ozone, i s FDI in lows could ollow wo possible ends based on
he expe iences o Slo akia, Slo enia, and Li huania: on one hand, Poland migh expe ience a
pa e n simila o Slo akia and Slo enia, whe e in es men lows became mo e s able bu
sligh ly lowe in olume a e adop ing he eu o; on he o he hand, i could also ollow
Li huania’s expe ience, whe e FDI inc eased a e eu o adop ion.
O e all, hese pa e ns show how eu o adop ion can educe FDI in lows ola ili y and s abilize
in lows while ha ing a ying e ec s on o e all in es men le els. Howe e , a mo e de ailed
analysis o he o igin and des ina ion o o eign in es men in lows would be necessa y o
complemen he e alua ion o absolu e in es men le els. Unde s anding whe he FDI in lows
p ima ily come om wi hin he EU o om ex e nal economies could p o ide impo an
in o ma ion abou he ole o Eu ozone membe ship in a ac ing o eign capi al. Addi ionally,
analyzing he sec o s ecei ing he mos in es men would help de e mine whe he eu o
adop ion has led o a shi om ola ile, high-g ow h in es men s o mo e s able, long- e m
capi al alloca ion. This would cla i y whe he changes in FDI in lows ends a e p ima ily
in luenced by mac oeconomic s abili y, in es o con idence o sec o al compe i i eness,
o e ing a be e iew o he eal impac o eu o adop ion on o eign di ec in es men .
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4.4. T ade Balance
The ade balance is ano he key indica o o a coun y's pe o mance in in e na ional ade,
e lec ing he di e ence be ween he alue o i s expo s and impo s. When expo s exceed
impo s, he esul is a ade su plus, which can be sign o s ong economic p oduc ion and
compe i i eness. Al e na i ely, a ade de ici , whe e impo s a e highe han expo s, migh
sugges g ea e dependence on o eign goods and se ices o imbalances in ade policies.
In my opinion, I belie e bo h expo s and impo s o inc ease i Poland adop s he eu o. Being
pa o he Eu ozone would make i easie o Polish businesses o ade wi h o he eu o
coun ies, as hey would no longe ace exchange a e luc ua ions o con e sion cos s. This
could encou age mo e expo s o Eu ozone coun ies. A he same ime, impo s migh also
inc ease, as Polish consume s and businesses would ha e easie access o goods and se ices
om he eu o a ea. Since bo h expo s and impo s would g ow oge he , he o e all ade
balance may no change signi ican ly, bu o al ade ac i i y would likely expand.
Hence o h, he ade balance o he selec ed o e he las wo decades will be analyzed,
ocusing on ends in expo s, impo s and he ade balance pe cen age. The ade balance
pe cen age ep esen s he ade balance as a sha e o o al ade (expo s plus impo s),
p o iding a mo e s anda dized way o compa e pe o mance ac oss di e en coun ies and
ime pe iods.
Figu e 5: Slo enia’s T ade Balance
Sou ce: Mac o ends, n.d. - G
Figu e 4 shows how Slo enia had ade de ici s in six ou o he se en yea s (85% o hem)
p io o joining he eu o in 2007, wi h only one yea , 2004, he yea i joined he EU, egis e ing
a ade su plus. Howe e , we can also obse e a cons an g ow h o expo s and impo s in
hese yea s, wi h expo s inc easing om $10,17 billion in 2000 o $25,61 billion in 2006, while
impo s ose om $10,91 billion o $25,63 billion in he same pe iod.
24
Du ing Slo enia’s p e-eu o pe iod, aking as a benchma k 2002, expo s we e p ima ily led by
au omobiles, pa s o sea s and medicamen s, e lec ing he coun y’s specializa ion in
au omo i e and pha maceu ical indus ies. Impo s hea ily elied on pe oleum oils,
au omobile componen s and mo o ehicle pa s, emphasizing he need o aw ma e ials and
in e media e goods o suppo i s manu ac u ing base. Ge many was as well Slo enia's la ges
ading pa ne o bo h expo s and impo s, wi h a pa ne sha e o 24,73% and 18,49%,
espec i ely, ollowed by o he key pa ne s ha included I aly, C oa ia, Aus ia and F ance.
Addi ionally, Slo enia's expo s we e concen a ed in consume and in e media e goods,
which oge he ep esen ed o e 70% o i s ade, while impo s p io i ized capi al goods,
essen ial o indus ial de elopmen and expansion (Wo ld Bank, 2002).
When Slo enia adop ed he eu o in 2007, i con inued o see g ow h in ade olumes, wi h
expo s eaching $32,63 billion and impo s $33,27 billion, esul ing in a ade de ici o -
0,97%. The adop ion o he eu o acili a ed educed ansac ion cos s and elimina ed
exchange a e isks wi hin he Eu ozone, u he in eg a ing Slo enia in o Eu opean ma ke s.
Howe e , he global inancial c isis o 2008-2009 in oduced challenges, wi h he ade
balance lowe ing o -1,56% in 2008. Despi e his, Slo enia quickly ebounded, achie ing a
ade su plus o 1,24% as ea ly as 2009, wi h expo s a $28,96 billion and impo s sligh ly
lowe a $28,25 billion. F om his momen onwa ds, he coun y s eadily inc eased i s ade
su pluses, accompanied by a con inuous g ow h in bo h expo and impo olumes. These
ends show Slo enia’s quick eco e y om he global inancial c isis and i s success ul
adjus men o he eu o in e ms o ade, which shi ed he coun y owa ds a mo e expo -
d i en economy.
In 2012, Slo enia's ade pa e ns showed an e olu ion, e lec ing he economic impac s o
eu o adop ion. Expo s had di e si ied o include signi ican con ibu ions om elec ical
ene gy and pe oleum p oduc s, alongside au omobiles and medicamen s. Impo s ollowed
a simila end, wi h elec ical ene gy becoming a key componen , highligh ing a g owing ocus
on ene gy ade wi hin he Eu ozone. Ge many emained he leading ading pa ne in he
expo side, wi h a 21,16% in he pa ne sha e. Howe e , I aly became he main expo e o
goods o Slo enia, lea ing Ge many in a close second place and expanding ade ne wo k
expanded o include China as an impo an supplie o impo s, eplacing adi ional
Eu opean pa ne s. In e ms o p oduc ca ego ies, consume goods con inued o domina e
Slo enia’s expo s, accoun ing o 44,10%, ollowed by capi al goods a 25,88%. Impo s also
e ol ed, wi h consume goods ep esen ing 43,06% and capi al goods con ibu ing 21,46%.
This di e si ica ion and shi owa ds highe - alue goods show how eu o adop ion acili a ed
Slo enia’s in eg a ion in o Eu opean ma ke s, s eng hened i s ade e iciency and suppo ed
i s ansi ion o a mo e expo -d i en economy (Wo ld Bank, 2012).
25
Figu e 6: Slo akia’s T ade Balance
Sou ce: Mac o ends, n.d. - F
As i can be seen in igu e 5, 89% o he yea s p io o adop ing he eu o we e ma ked by
de ici s in Slo akia. In his con ex , Slo akia’s 2004 ade was cha ac e ized by expo s
p ima ily domina ed by au omobiles, pe oleum oils and ehicle- ela ed p oduc s, e lec ing
he coun y’s g owing au omo i e indus y. Impo s du ing his pe iod ocused hea ily on
ene gy esou ces such as pe oleum oils and na u al gas, alongside mo o ehicle pa s, which
complemen ed i s expo -d i en manu ac u ing base. Ge many was Slo akia's la ges ading
pa ne o bo h expo s and impo s, wi h a pa ne sha e o 28,60% and 23,37% espec i ely,
ollowed by he Czech Republic, Aus ia, I aly and Poland in he expo side and by Czech
Republic, Russian Fede a ion and I aly in he impo side. Fu he mo e, Slo akia’s expo s
we e la gely concen a ed in consume and in e media e goods, while impo s we e led by
capi al goods, e lec ing he coun y’s eliance on machine y and equipmen o suppo i s
expanding indus ies (Wo ld Bank, 2004).
When Slo akia adop ed he eu o, i expe ienced bene i s in e ms o ade e iciency and
educed ansac ion cos s. Ne e heless, con a y o Slo enia, 2009 ma ked a decline in bo h
expo s and impo s compa ed o 2008, wi h expo s d opping om $80,85 billion o $60,82
billion and impo s dec easing om $82,64 billion o $60,97 billion, p obably due o he
cu ency ansi ion and he economic c ises o hose yea s. Howe e , Slo akia's ade balance
imp o ed in ha yea , eaching o a sligh de ici o -0,12%. By 2011, Slo akia had al eady
eco e ed, achie ing a ade su plus o 0,41%, wi h expo s ebounding o $84,27 billion and
impo s s abilizing a $83,59 billion. F om his poin onwa ds, Slo akia main ained consis en
ade su pluses and inc easing expo and impo olumes, e lec ing he bene i s o eu o
adop ion.
Fi e yea s a e adop ing he eu o, Slo akia's ade pa e ns had e ol ed. The expo p o ile
expanded o include elec onics such as ele ision ecei e s and ansmission appa a us,
which joined he au omo i e and pe oleum indus ies as key con ibu o s. Impo s also
di e si ied, wi h ansmission appa a us and op ical de ices supplemen ing he adi ional
32
Las ly, go e nmen deb could become a challenge as well. Be o e joining he Eu ozone,
Poland would need o con ol i s deb le els no o inc ease and mee he Maas ich c i e ia.
Howe e , his o ical ends show ha , a e adop ing he eu o, Slo enia, Slo akia and Li huania
all saw deb le els ise. Wi hou con ol o e in e es a es, Poland would be mo e dependen
on iscal policy as i s main ool o managing economic c ises, which could lead o highe deb
bu dens and g ea e di icul y in esponding o c ises.
Beyond economic ac o s, adop ing he eu o would also ein o ce Poland’s poli ical and
economic in eg a ion wi hin he EU. The membe ship in he Eu ozone could inc ease Poland’s
in luence in Eu opean inancial and economic policy discussions. Ne e heless, he impac o
eu o adop ion is no pu ely posi i e o nega i e; as explained, while i may b ing bene i s, i
could also pose challenges.
33
6. CONCLUSION
In he ollowing yea s, i is ine i able ha Poland will adop he eu o due o i s legal
obliga ion unde EU ea ies o join he cu ency. Howe e , he exac iming and impac o
his ansi ion emain unce ain.
The expe iences om coun ies like Slo enia, Slo akia and Li huania show bo h he
oppo uni ies and isks o joining he Eu ozone. In conclusion, adop ing he eu o could
b ing Poland long- e m bene i s, such as lowe bo owing cos s, inc eased ade and
in es men and a s onge economic and poli ical in eg a ion wi hin he EU. Howe e , i
also comes wi h isks, such as he loss o mone a y policy con ol, GDP g ow h ola ili y
and iscal challenges.
The success o Poland’s ansi ion o he eu o will ul ima ely depend on abili y o o he
coun y con ols i s deb , sus ain expo compe i i eness and manage economic shocks
e ec i ely. Ne e heless, wi hou he necessa y e o ms and s abili y measu es, Poland
could ace economic challenges ha su pass he ad an ages o eu o adop ion.
34
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