Agro-economic and socio-environmental assessments of food and virtual water trades of Iran

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Ag o‑economic
and socio‑en i onmen al
assessmen s o ood and i ual
wa e ades o I an
Fa emeh Ka andish1,2*, Hamideh Nou i3 & Ma cela B ugnach4,5
Ending hunge and ensu ing ood secu i y a e among a ge s o 2030’s SDGs. While ood ade and he
embedded ( i ual) wa e (VW) may imp o e ood a ailabili y and accessibili y o mo e people all yea
ound, he sus ainabili y and e iciency o ood and VW ade needs o be e isi ed. In his esea ch,
we assess he sus ainabili y and e iciency o ood and VW ades unde wo ood secu i y scena ios
o I an, a coun y su e ing om an escala ing wa e c isis. These scena ios a e (1) Indi idual C op
Food Secu i y (ICFS), which es ic s calo ie ul illmen om indi idual c ops and (2) C op Ca ego y
Food Secu i y (CCFS), which p omo es “ea ing local” by sugges ing ood subs i u ion wi hin he c op
ca ego y. To his end, we simula e he wa e oo p in and VW ades o 27 majo c ops, wi hin 8 c op
ca ego ies, in 30 p o inces o I an (2005–2015). We in es iga e he impac s o hese wo scena ios on
(a) p o incial ood secu i y (FSp) and expo s; (b) sus ainable and e icien blue wa e consump ion,
and (c) blue VW expo . We hen es he co ela ion be ween ag o‑economic and socio‑en i onmen al
indica o s and p o incial ood secu i y. Ou esul s show ha mos p o inces we e h ea ened
by unsus ainable and ine icien blue wa e consump ion o c op p oduc ion, pa icula ly in he
summe ime. This wa e mismanagemen esul s in 14.41 and 8.45 billion m3 y −1 unsus ainable and
ine icien blue VW expo s unde ICFS. “Ea ing local” imp o es he FSp alue by up o 210% which
lessens he unsus ainable and ine icien blue VW expo om ho spo s. As illus a ed in he g aphical
abs ac , he FSp alue s ongly co ela es wi h di e en ag o‑economic and socio‑en i onmen al
indica o s, bu in di e en ways. Ou indings p omo e “ea ing local” besides imp o ing ag o‑
economic and socio‑en i onmen al condi ions o ake ans o ma i e s eps owa d e adica ing ood
insecu i y no only in I an bu also in o he coun ies acing wa e limi a ions.
Food secu i y is a global challenge unde an e e -inc easing popula ion and e e -sh inking ini e esou ces.
Cu en ly, abou one billion (16%) o he wo ld’s popula ion a e unde nou ished, 80% o which li e in he global
sou h1. Globally, ul illing ood demand is acing wo main challenges conce ning land and wa e a ailabili y2,3.
On one hand, global c oplands a e signi ican ly educed by u baniza ion g ow h, he o e exploi a ion o e ile
lands and de o es a ion4. On he o he hand, ood p oduc ion wi hin he emaining c oplands is also es ic ed
by e e -sh inking ini e wa e esou ces. This is esul ing in an in ensi ica ion o managemen s a egies, such
as imp o ing ag icul u al p ac ices o wa e managemen o enhance he p oduc i i y o c opping sys ems5.
Howe e , he ood secu i y achie ed unde hese s a egies is, in some na ions, mainly a he expense o he
en i onmen ; in pa icula o eshwa e esou ces3. These s a egies canno las long, unless hey a e sys ema i-
cally e isi ed based on he a ailabili y and sus ainabili y o esou ces1,6.
Among nume ous quan i a i e indica o s, wa e oo p in (WF)7 is known as a mul idimensional indica o o
wa e consump ion, which can be used o o mula e pa hways o achie e sus ainable wa e esou ce de elopmen
in ag icul u e. Along wi h WF assessmen (WFA), ecen s udies p o ed ha wa e sca ci y could be alle ia ed
h ough e icien wa e use in c oplands by mulching and e icien i iga ion sys ems8,9, changing c opping
pa e ns9, o benchma king10,11. Vi ual wa e (VW) ade is ano he concep ha was de eloped o moni o
OPEN
1Wa e Enginee ing Depa men , Uni e si y o Zabol, Zabol, I an. 2Mul idisciplina y Wa e Managemen , Facul y
o Enginee ing Technology, Uni e si y o Twen e, Enschede, The Ne he lands. 3Di ision o Ag onomy, Uni e si y
o Gö ingen, Von-Siebold-S asse 8, 37075 Gö ingen, Ge many. 4Basque Cen e o Clima e Change, Scien i ic
Campus o he Uni e si y o he Basque Coun y, 48940 Leioa, Spain. 5Basque Founda ion o Science, Ike basque,
Bilbao, Spain. *email: [email p o ec ed]
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and manage embedded wa e in c op ades. Wa e -sma ood ade in wa e -sca ce egions, i.e. impo ing
wa e -in ensi e c ops ins ead o domes ic p oduc ion, has he po en ial o achie e highe le els o ood and wa e
secu i y compa ed o localized ood p oduc ion om a wa e managemen poin o iew12,13. On he con a y,
wa e sca ci y in expo ing egions could be escala ed when VW lows a e issued in he opposi e di ec ion14,15.
Many coun ies in he wo ld a e in ol ed in VW ade and sa is y hei ood demand h ough he impo /
expo p ocess. Addi ionally, inc easing wa e ades become p oblema ic since hey, no only dec ease al eady
sca ce wa e esou ces, bu also educe he esilience o communi ies owa d unan icipa ed c ises16. Indeed, a
VW ade is labeled sus ainable when he p oduc s a e no p oduced a and expo ed om ho spo s, whe e he
wa e consump ion exceeds he sus ainable a ailabili y o wa e . C op- ela ed VW ade is e icien when he
WFs o he p oduced c ops in he expo ing egions a e lowe han hei benchma k le els. The li e a u e e iew
e eals ha li le esea ch has been done on he sus ainabili y and e iciency o in e - o in a-na ional VW ade.
In I an, eloca ing whea cul i a ion may modi y c op and VW ade di ec ion o educe consump ion in wa e -
sca ce p o inces17. In he UK, o example, i was claimed ha abou 50% o he impo ed VW was unsus ainable
and ine icien since i o igina ed om coun ies wi h blue wa e sca ci y (BWS) > 1 and WF alues beyond he
benchma k le els18. Ano he s udy e ealed ha co on consump ion in Ge many exace ba es wa e sca ci y in
Pakis an, and de e io a es he quali y o d inking wa e . Hence, a global e o should aise awa eness on he
impac s o ex e nalizing he wa e consump ion o a na ion and i s epe cussions on wa e esou ces o ano he
na ion19. A c op- ela ed WF assessmen o I an demons a ed ha he di ec ion o p o incial VW ade occu ed
om he wa e -sca ce p o inces o he wa e -abundan ones20.
He e, and o he i s ime, we assessed he e iciency and sus ainabili y o he in e -p o incial c op- ela ed
VW expo unde di e en ood secu i y scena ios as a case s udy o I an, he second la ges coun y in he mos
wa e sca ce egion o he wo ld, The Middle Eas and No h A ica (MENA)21. I an is acing a se e e BWS, and
i iga ed ag icul u e con ibu es o 97% in he o al ne blue wa e abs ac ion13,22. Ag icul u e plays a key ole in
I an’s economy wi h a con ibu ion o 13% in he na ional g oss domes ic p oduc ion, 20% in employmen a e,
23% in he non-oil expo , 82% in o al ood consumed by he esiden s, and 90% in o al aw ma e ials used
by he ood-p ocessing ac o ies17. In 1979, sel -su iciency in ood p oduc ion was implemen ed in he cen e
o I an’s ood policies which p omo ed na ional sel -su iciency in e ms o ag icul u al p oduc ion, mainly o
ce eal p oduc ion20. Ne e heless, he na ional sel -su iciency plan has no ye been achie ed and I an elies on
o he coun ies’ wa e bodies o mee i s ood demand20. Due o he subs an ial con ibu ion o ag icul u e in
he na ional wa e consump ion, we assessed he po en ials o imp o ing c op- ela ed blue wa e consump ion
and ade in he hopes o ge ing sus ainable sel -su icien ood secu i y in I an while educing wa e - ela ed
challenges.
In his s udy, we i s e alua ed he p o incial ood secu i y le els om domes ic ag icul u al p oduc ion;
he in luence o cu en p oduc ion pa e ns on he e iciency and sus ainabili y o blue wa e consump ion and
VW ade. The ea e , we es ed he ela ionship be ween e iciency/sui abili y and sel -su icien ood secu i y
le els; and sugges ed po en ials o imp o ing he cu en condi ions. These po en ials we e ex ac ed om
ag o-economic and socio-en i onmen al assessmen s using di e en ag icul u al, economic, en i onmen al,
and social indica o s.
Resul s
Food secu i y and expo . Table1 shows he FSp alues ob ained om each c op ca ego y and om all
27 c ops, unde ICFS and CCFS scena ios. Conside ing all 27 selec ed c ops, he o e all FSp alue a ies in he
ange o 11–98% and 16–100% unde ICFS and CCFS scena ios, espec i ely. Indeed, conside ing c op subs i u-
ion wi hin a speci ic c op ca ego y inc eases he p o incial FSp alues by 1–210%.
Fo bo h scena ios, he o e all FSp alue s ongly co ela es wi h ce eal’s FSp alues, whe e p o inces wi h
highe con ibu ions in ce eal p oduc ion ha e highe FSp alues. I iga ed ag icul u e has a c ucial ole in
sa is ying ood secu i y in I an since oughly 66–100% o he o e all FSp alue is supplied by he i iga ed c ops
(Table2).
Unde he ICFS scena io, a o al o 30.0 million ons o i iga ed c ops a e in e -p o incially aded pe
yea ; ce eals and suga c ops ha e he highes con ibu ion in his expo . Unde he CCFS scena io, he in e -
p o incial c op ade dec eases 17% compa ed o he ICFS scena io; no iceably o ce eals and ui s.
Sus ainabili y and e iciency o blue wa e consump ion. On he annual scale, 45.5 billion m3 o
blue wa e is consumed o p oduce hese 27 majo c ops, 78% (35.5 billion m3 y−1) o which is unsus ainable
consump ion, and 34% o which (15.5 billion m3 y−1) is ine icien consump ion. Figu e1 shows ha ce eals a e
majo con ibu o s in bo h he annual unsus ainable and ine icien blue wa e consump ion (m3 y−1, 46% and
35%, espec i ely). Howe e , by uni measu emen s o unsus ainabili y and ine iciency (m3 ha−1) indica e ha
suga c ops ha e he highes unsus ainable blue WF alue (10.9 housand m3 ha1) and ha pulses ha e he high-
es ine iciency ( housand 10.0 m3 ha−1).
P o incial uni unsus ainable blue WF alues (m3 ha−1) a y om 0.71 housand m3 ha−1 (Es ahan) o 7.1
housand m3 ha−1 (Yazd) in ho spo p o inces depending on hei c opping pa e n, accessibili y o di e en
sou ces, and ag icul u al p ac ices and wa e managemen (Fig.2). In se en p o inces, blue wa e consump ion is
sus ainable due o high blue wa e a ailabili y. The e is no p o ince in which blue wa e consump ion is ully e i-
cien . Uni ine icien blue WF alues a y om 0.2 housand m3 ha−1 (Ke man) o 5.3 housand m3 ha−1 (Yazd).
Sus ainabili y and e iciency o blue VW expo . In e ‑p o incial sus ainabili y o blue VW expo un‑
de he ICFS and CCFS scena ios. ICFS scena io—23 ou o 30 p o inces ha e unsus ainable blue VW expo ;
accoun ing o 0.59 billion m3 y−1 o 1.85 billion m3 y−1 (Fig.3a). Th ee p o inces o Fa s, Khuzes an and Sou h-
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Kho asan, h ee majo c op-g owing a eas o I an wi h a con ibu ion o 12%, 18% and 5% in he na ional
p oduc ion, ha e he g ea es unsus ainable blue VW expo ; accoun ing o 1.85, 1.61 and 1.57 billion m3 y−1,
espec i ely. These p o inces con ibu e he mos in he in e -p o incial i iga ed-c op expo (11%, 21% and
7%, espec i ely) while hey a e classi ied as se e e blue wa e sca ce egions based on he BWS index.
The expo ed c op ype om a ho spo (i.e., a egion wi h BWS > 1) a ec s he absolu e unsus ainable blue
VW expo . Fa s p o ince has a lowe con ibu ion o he o al in e -p o incial c op expo (11%) han he
Khuzes an p o ince (21%), bu i s con ibu ion in o al unsus ainable blue VW expo is la ge . In he Fa s
p o ince, ce eals and ui s a e majo expo s and bo h ha e highe unsus ainable blue WF alues compa ed o
suga c ops (Table2), which a e majo expo s in he Khuzes an p o ince. Sou h-Kho asan p o ince, howe e ,
has a lowe unsus ainable blue VW expo alue because o i s smalle con ibu ion in he o al in e -p o incial
c op expo (7%).
In sus ainabili y assessmen om he angle o blue VW expo pe uni o c opland (m3 ha−1), Sou h-Kho asan
is he mos c i ical p o ince among hi y p o inces o I an (Fig.3b). I has he highes uni unsus ainable blue
WF alue (4.53 housand m3 ha−1), which is 122% and 112% highe han hose in he p o inces o Fa s and
Khuzes an. This is why he BWS alue in Sou h-Kho asan (9.1) is no iceably highe han hose in Khuzes an
Table 1. P o incial le el o sel -supplied c op- ela ed ood secu i y unde ICFS and CCFS scena ios. ICFS
is Indi idual C op Food Secu i y, which es ic s calo ie ul illmen om indi idual c ops and CCFS is C op
Ca ego y Food Secu i y, which p omo es “ea ing local” by sugges ing ood subs i u ion wi hin he c op
ca ego y. a Fo a speci ic c op ca ego y, a p o ince wi h a ood secu i y le el o 100% is en i ely sel -su icien in
supplying domes ic demand; and could be a ood expo e o p o inces wi h de ici p oduc ion. b A p o ince
could ha e an o e all ood secu i y le el o < 100%, al hough being ood expo e o some speci ic c op
ca ego ies.
P o ince
Sel -supplied ood secu i y le el (%) unde ICFS scena ioaSel -supplied ood secu i y le el (%) unde CCFS scena io
Ce eals
Roo
and
ube s Suga
c ops Pulses Nu s Oil
c ops Vege ables F ui s All
c opsbCe eals
Roo
and
ube s Suga
c ops Pulses Nu s Oil
c ops Vege ables F ui s All
c ops
A debil 82 38 100 58 25 9 52 17 76 100 38 100 84 25 9 56 40 92
Aza Gha bi 82 78 69 6 42 28 41 41 76 100 78 69 6 90 28 41 100 94
Aza Sha ghi 83 82 100 4 6 70 100 41 81 100 100 100 4 6 70 100 100 99
Busheh 41 83 4 4 0 100 0 70 44 50 100 4 4 0 100 0 100 54
Chaha ma-
hal 88 6 100 16 33 100 100 41 83 100 6 100 16 33 100 100 85 96
Es ahan 77 68 100 6 42 60 0 24 71 100 100 100 6 46 60 0 32 90
Fa s 99 100 91 19 42 100 100 88 98 100 100 91 32 75 100 100 100 100
Ghaz in 85 69 77 12 42 100 46 41 80 100 100 77 12 51 100 46 100 97
Ghom 18 2 1 6 0 100 7 10 20 39 2 1 6 0 100 7 10 36
Guilan 24 10 8 2 0 54 100 17 26 100 10 8 2 0 54 100 17 81
Go gan 100 67 100 100 0 0 26 18 86 100 100 100 100 0 0 26 20 87
Hamedan 82 69 100 18 42 100 100 41 80 100 69 100 37 52 100 100 100 99
Ho mozgan 16 100 56 1 0 51 1 49 23 30 100 56 1 0 51 1 100 37
Ilam 88 49 4 9 2 49 10 9 75 100 49 4 9 2 49 11 9 85
Ke man 57 33 100 1 13 100 16 65 59 94 33 100 1 13 100 16 100 92
Ke manshah 82 47 15 6 42 100 39 40 75 100 47 15 6 42 100 39 72 91
Khuzes an 96 100 26 5 78 9 62 37 82 100 100 26 5 100 9 62 77 88
Kohgiluieh 83 28 1 18 10 39 76 52 67 100 28 1 23 10 39 77 100 83
Ko des an 82 29 100 6 1 100 19 37 78 100 29 100 6 1 100 19 45 92
Lo es an 86 71 100 23 26 100 100 40 84 100 100 100 23 26 100 100 47 97
Ma kazi 81 81 100 19 16 100 100 41 81 100 100 100 24 16 100 100 100 100
Mazanda an 42 25 26 100 1 16 32 19 39 100 25 26 100 1 16 32 100 90
No h-
Kho asan 82 100 100 7 42 67 70 41 80 100 100 100 7 100 67 71 100 98
Raza i-
Kho asan 50 75 22 3 0 100 9 41 50 73 100 22 3 0 100 9 100 72
Semnan 81 91 100 4 42 100 100 34 80 100 100 100 6 56 100 100 100 100
Sis an 42 59 10 1 0 100 0 79 42 53 82 10 1 0 100 0 100 53
Sou h-Kho-
asan 82 100 100 6 42 100 100 49 82 100 100 100 6 100 100 100 49 97
Old-Teh an 10 25 16 1 2 13 7 13 11 16 25 16 1 2 13 7 13 16
Yazd 52 64 15 1 3 100 18 45 52 76 64 15 1 3 100 18 63 72
Zanjan 86 100 100 12 40 100 100 41 85 100 100 100 12 40 100 100 100 100
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(3.6) and Fa s (2.2). The e o e, he ac ion o unsus ainable blue WF alue o a speci ic c op in Sou h-Kho asan
is la ge han he same c op in Fa s o Khuzes an. Hence, Sou h-Kho asan is he mos ulne able p o ince o
en i onmen al de e io a ion and ag icul u al d ough , and c op expo s om his p o ince is no jus i ied om
an en i onmen al poin o iew.
CCFS scena io— he numbe o p o inces wi h unsus ainable blue VW expo dec eases om 23 o 22 p o -
inces (Fig.3c). This one di e en p o ince is Old-Teh an, which includes New-Teh an as he capi al o I an wi h
Table 2. To al and uni i iga ed-c op, blue VW expo , and unsus ainable blue VW expo o di e en c op
ca ego ies unde he ICFS and CCFS scena ios o e he s udy pe iod (2005–2015).
C op
ca ego y
ICFS scena io CCFS scena io
C op expo Blue VW expo C op expo Blue VW expo
To al
expo Uni
expo To al
expo Uni
expo Unsus ainable
expo
Uni
unsus ainable
expo To al
expo Uni
expo To al
expo Uni
expo Unsus ainable
expo
Uni
unsus ainable
expo
(106 y−1)( ha−1)(109 m3
y−1) (m3 ha−1) (109 m3 y−1) (m3 ha−1) (106 y−1)( ha−1)(109 m3
y−1) (m3 ha−1) (109 m3 y−1) (m3 ha−1)
Ce eals 9.51 1.82 12.21 2343 6.18 1185 7.41 1.42 9.75 1872 5.19 996
Roo and
ube 2.56 12.31 0.39 1891 0.21 1006 2.56 12.31 0.39 1891 0.21 1006
Suga
c ops 7.77 35.36 2.12 9655 1.61 7329 7.03 32.00 1.89 8591 1.50 6844
Pulses 0.28 0.63 1.49 3352 0.66 1472 0.20 0.45 0.98 2197 0.32 721
Nu s 0.56 1.00 3.08 5543 1.83 3301 0.56 1.00 3.08 5543 1.83 3301
Oil c ops 0.33 1.15 0.65 2267 0.45 1588 0.26 0.93 0.51 1776 0.36 1268
Vege ables 3.63 13.56 1.11 4141 0.74 2772 3.21 12.00 1.00 3715 0.68 2533
F ui s 5.36 7.73 5.26 7585 2.73 3942 3.60 5.19 3.87 5584 2.09 3011
All c ops 30.00 3.80 26.32 3337 14.41 1828 24.84 3.15 21.47 2722 12.19 1546
Figu e1. Annual o al (m3 y−1) and uni (m3 ha−1) (a) sus ainable/unsus ainable and (b) ine icien blue WFs
o di e en c op ca ego ies I an o e he s udy pe iod (2005–2015). The uni unsus ainable o ine icien blue
WFs (m3 ha−1) was es ima ed by di iding o al unsus ainable o ine icien blue WFs (m3 y−1) by he a ea o
c oplands (ha) in he speci ic p o ince. (i.e., The Figu e is c ea ed in he en i onmen o Mic oso O ice—
Excel— e sion 10.).
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he la ges popula ion and a e o u baniza ion, bu he smalles con ibu ion in na ional c oplands. As expec ed,
he New-Teh an p o ince consumes i s domes ic own c op p oduc ion wi h li le le o expo . No expo
om his p o ince leads o ze o unsus ainable blue VW expo alue. In o he p o inces, he in e -p o incial
unsus ainable blue VW expo a ies om 0.02 billion m3 y−1 (Es ahan) o 1.76 million m3 y−1 (Fa s). Ne e he-
less, he ho spo p o inces emain unchanged; Fa s, Khuzes an and Sou h-Kho asan. These p o inces ha e he
la ges con ibu ions in he o al unsus ainable blue VW expo s; accoun ing o 1.87 billion m3 y−1, 1.69 billion
m3 y−1, and 1.46 billion m3 y−1, espec i ely. In addi ion, Sou h-Kho asan has he highes uni o unsus ainable
blue VW expo ; al hough i s alue dec eased by 5.1% o 4.3 housand m3 ha−1 compa ed o he one unde ICFS
scena io (Fig.3d).
The o al and uni unsus ainable blue VW expo , o di e en c op ca ego ies be ween ICFS and CCFS
scena ios we e compa ed o e he pe iod 2005–2015 (Table2).
Unde ICFS scena io, a o al o 26.3 billion m3 y−1 o blue VW is in e p o incially expo ed; 55% (14.4 billion
m3 y−1) o which is unsus ainable. Ce eals ha e he highes con ibu ion (43%), ollowed by ui s (19%). Such
high ce eal p oduc ion a es a e due o i s dominan con ibu ion o he na ional c oplands and p oduc ions
(see Fig.S2 in he supplemen a y in o ma ion). Howe e , when uni unsus ainable blue VW expo s (m3 ha−1)
a e conside ed, p oducing suga c ops, ui s and nu s become less sus ainable (Table2).
Figu e2. P o incial uni (a) unsus ainable and (b) ine icien blue wa e oo p in (WF) pe uni o c opland
(m3 ha−1) o e he s udy pe iod (2005–2015). Pe p o ince, uni unsus ainable o ine icien blue WFs was
calcula ed by di iding he o al unsus ainable o ine icien blue WFs (m3 y−1) by he a ea o c oplands (ha) in
he speci ic p o ince. (i.e., This Figu e is c ea ed in he en i onmen o A cMap-GIS e sion 10.7).

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Unde he CCFS scena io, he o al blue VW expo dec eases by 18% (21.5 billion m3 y−1), which in u n
esul s in an 17% educ ion in he o al i iga ed-c ops expo . Consequen ly, he o al unsus ainable blue VW
expo dec eases by 15% (12.2 billion m3 y−1). C op subs i u ion in ood die s also educes c op-ca ego y-speci ic
unsus ainable blue VW expo by 7% (in suga c ops) o 51% (in pulses). Simila ly han in he ICFS scena io,
ce eals and ui s ha e majo con ibu ions in he o e all in e -p o incial unsus ainable blue VW expo , wi h
43% and 17% espec i ely. Uni unsus ainable blue VW expo s also dec ease up o 51% while he c i ical c ops
emain he same as he alues unde he ICFS scena io.
Figu e3. In e -p o incial alues o he o al (a and c) and uni (b and d) unsus ainable blue i ual wa e
(VW) expo s unde ICFS (le ) and CCFS ( igh ) scena ios. The con ibu ion o eigh c op ca ego ies in he
o al i iga ed c op expo and o al unsus ainable blue VW expo a e epo ed in op- h ee ho spo s o —Fa s,
Khuzes an, and Sou h-Kho asan p o inces. Pe p o ince, uni unsus ainable blue VW expo s (m3 ha−1) we e
es ima ed by di iding he o al unsus ainable blue VW expo (m3 y−1) by he a ea o c oplands (ha) in he
speci ic p o ince. (i.e., This Figu e is c ea ed in he en i onmen o A cMap-GIS e sion 10.7).
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In e ‑p o incial e iciency o blue VW expo unde he ICFS and CCFS scena ios. Unde he ICFS scena io,
excep o Old-Teh an, he con ibu ion o p o inces o ine icien expo a ies om 0.18 billion m3 y−1 (Bush-
eh ) o 0.92 billion m3 y−1 (Fa s), as p esen ed in Fig.4. Th ee p o inces o Fa s, Eas -Aza baijan, and Sou h-
Kho asan ha e he la ges ine icien blue VW expo s (11%, 9% and 8% espec i ely). In Fa s and Eas -Aze bai-
jan p o inces ce eals a e majo con ibu o s, while in Sou h-Kho asan suga c ops a e. The o al i iga ed-c op
expo om Eas -Aze baijan (1.6 million y−1) is 28% less han in he Sou h-Kho asan p o ince (2.2 million
y−1); howe e , i s highe con ibu ion in ine icien blue VW expo is due o he expo o ce eals and ui s, bo h
o which ha e highe ine icien blue WF alues (m3 −1) compa ed o suga c ops in Sou h-Kho asan.
Rega ding uni ine icien blue VW expo , he alues (m3 ha−1) in Yazd, Homozgan, and Sis an a e c i ical,
as hese p o inces expo la ge a es o ine icien blue wa e (3451 m3 ha−1, 3056 m3 ha−1, and 2460 m3 ha−1,
espec i ely).
Unde he CCFS scena io, he in e -p o incial ine icien blue VW expo alue is educed om 0.01 million
m3 y−1 (Busheh , 0.1%) o 371 million m3 y−1 (Raza i-Kho asan, 69%). Ho spo p o inces emain unchanged.
The uni ine icien blue VW expo dec eases by 0.1–75% in di e en p o inces compa ed o hose unde he
ICFS scena io.
The o al and uni ine icien blue VW expo , o di e en c op ca ego ies be ween ICFS and CCFS scena ios
we e compa ed o e he pe iod 2005–2015 (Table3).
Unde ICFS scena io, a o al o 8.45 billion m3 y−1 o ine icien blue VW is in e -p o incially expo ed (32%
o o al), 43% o which occu ed om ce eal lands and 24% om ui lands. By he uni ine icien blue VW
expo is exp essed in e ms o m3 ha−1, whe e suga - and ui c ops ha e he highes ine icien blue VW expo .
Unde CCFS scena io, he o al ine icien blue VW expo dec eases by 19% o 6.86 billion m3 y−1. This
educ ion is, in u n, caused by 8% ( o ege ables) o 37% ( o pulses) educ ions in c op-ca ego y-speci ic
in e -p o incial ine icien blue VW expo s. Ne e heless, Ce eals and ui s s ill ha e he highes con ibu ions
(43% and 21% espec i ely). In addi ion, c i ical c ops ega ding hei uni ine icien blue VW expo alue (m3
ha−1) s ay he same, as e i iable in he ICFS scena io.
Discussion
The sus ainabili y and e iciency o c op p oduc ion and VW ades unde wo ood secu i y scena ios o ICFS
and CCFS we e e alua ed. Ou esul s show ha ea ing locally by adop ing c op subs i u ions in ood die s
unde he CCFS scena io imp o es he FSp alue up o 210% compa ed o he ICFS scena io; his leads o an
17% educ ion in he in e -p o incial c op ade (Table1).
Unde he CCFS scena io, localized ood ma ke ing will be s uc u ed mo e e icien ly; which helps a me s
economically p ospe . When a me s es ablish hei own a m businesses, he e is no need o spli hei incomes
wi h he p o incial ade b oke s; hence consume s can addi ionally ecei e cheape oods. On he o he hand,
ood a ailabili y and accessibili y may inc ease unde CCFS scena io when in e -p o incial ood ade is no
easible. The dis ance be ween he ading pa ne s is always a es ic ion o bila e al ades. Such a ba ie could
become mo e se e e du ing ci cums ances such as he COVID19 pandemic. Indeed, in e -p o incial c op ades
inc ease he esilience in handling local shock (i.e., such as d ough o he o he na u al o unna u al haza ds
which cause ag icul u al losses), bu simul aneously inc ease he ulne abili y o ma ke shocks. The e o e,
small-scale a ming and local ma ke imp o emen s could se e as ools o educing ood dependency and
aluing indi idual ood p oduce s23. A he same ime, all p o inces can con ibu e inc emen ally o local ood
p oduc ion by p omo ing s a egies, such as imp o ing c op/wa e p oduc i i ies, educing ood losses, and/o
changing local ood die s in o de o inc ease local ood a ailabili y.
Simul aneously, he en i onmen bene i s om local ea ing since in e -p o incial ood anspo a ion is
dec eased unde he CCFS scena io (Table2), o ins ance, by educing ene gy consump ion and anspo a ion-
ela ed GHG emissions24. Fu he mo e, less ood anspo a ion is associa ed wi h less ood losses25,26. Food loss
h ough anspo a ion is ansla ed in o eco-en i onmen al esou ce losses including wa e , ene gy and capi al
losses. Reduced in e -p o incial ood ade unde he CCFS scena io esul s in a 16% educ ion in unsus ainable
and a 19% educ ion in ine icien in e -p o incial blue VW expo alue (Tables2 and 3). Indeed, he CCFS
scena io lessens he p essu e o in-need p o inces on he expo ing egions, in pa icula in ho spo p o inces. An
elimina ion o his p essu e allows decision make s o use ini e local esou ces mo e sus ainably and e icien ly
in o de o p io i ize hei own local demand in a sus ainable manne .
Ad e se impac s o ood ades ha e been os e ing mo emen s owa ds inc easing local ood supply p o i-
sions, e en a a global scale27,28, calling o a powe shi om la ge ag icul u al companies and global ma ke s
o local ac o s ha can lead o a mo e sus ainable c op p oduc ion23. Fu he mo e, i has been acknowledged
ha , ensu ing he sus ainabili y and s abili y o ood secu i y equi es a b oade assessmen ha is no es ic ed
o echnical aspec s and includes economic, social and en i onmen al ac o s. Hence, we es ed he ela ionship
be ween di e en ag o-economic and socio-en i onmen al indica o s and FSP alues (Fig.5).
En i onmen al indica o s ha e a ious e ec s on he local FSp alues. While FSp alues posi i ely co ela e wi h
pe capi a blue wa e a ailabili y (m3 cap−1) (Fig.5i), hey espond ad e sely o any inc ease in wa e a ailabili y
pe uni o c opland (m3 ha−1) (Fig.5i). In egions wi h highe blue wa e a ailabili y pe uni o c opland, he
con ibu ion o ce eal p oduc ion (dominan c ops in I anian’ ood baske ) in o he o al p oduc ion is lowe ;
which in u n esul s in lowe FSp alues.. This explains why a me s in hese egions a e in a o o cash c ops
(e.g. ui s) a he han s aple c ops. This inding is in line wi h he co ela ion be ween FSp alues and BWS alues
(Fig.5i); wa e -sca ce p o inces con ibu e mo e in s aple c op p oduc ion and ha e he highes FSp alues. The
cul i a ion o wa e -in ensi e c ops in ho spo s in ensi ies en i onmen al de e io a ion a es and h ea ens sus-
ainable ag icul u e. Consequen ly, long- e m ood secu i y plans necessi a e an u gen e ision in he c opping
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pa e n in hese egions. E ec i e policies need o be implemen ed o b idge he gap be ween p o incial ood
demands and supplies while conside ing en i onmen al p o ec ion.
In addi ion, Fig.5 shows ha educing he po ion o ine icien blue wa e consump ion helps imp o e FSp.
Se e al esea che s demons a ed he posi i e e ec s o c op edis ibu ion on e icien wa e consump ion9,29
Figu e4. In e -p o incial alues o he o al (a and c) and uni (b and d) ine icien blue i ual wa e (VW)
expo s unde ICFS (le ) and CCFS ( igh ) scena ios. The con ibu ion o eigh c op ca ego ies in he o al
i iga ed c op expo and o al ine icien blue VW expo a e epo ed in op- h ee ho spo s o Fa s, Khuzes an,
and Sou h-Kho asan p o inces. Pe p o ince, uni ine icien blue VW expo s (m3 ha−1) we e es ima ed by
di iding he o al unsus ainable blue VW expo (m3 y−1) by he a ea o c oplands (ha) in he speci ic p o ince.
(i.e., This Figu e is c ea ed in he en i onmen o A cMap-GIS e sion 10.7).
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besides o he esilien ag icul u al p ac ices30,31. Unde he condi ion o clima e change, implemen ing clima e-
esilien pa hways in he ag icul u al sec o is a necessi y in a aining ood secu i y31. Howe e , he e ec i eness
o hese s a egies di e s pe c op and pe egion, and should be ully in es iga ed be o e implemen a ion.
Ag icul u al indica o s co ela e well wi h he FSp alues. The FSp alue inc eases in esponse o a heigh ened
a ailabili y o c oplands (Fig.5ii), pa icula ly in i iga ed c oplands (Fig.5). O e he s udy pe iod 2005–2015,
59–100% o he o e all FSp alue is ul illed by i iga ed p oduc ion (Table1), which highligh s he i al ole o
i iga ed ag icul u e in ood p oduc ion in I an. Sma long- e m decisions in bo h i iga ed and ain ed a ming
imp o es c op p oduc ion pe capi a and smoo hens he pa h o FSp alues.
Owne ship o e a mland also has a posi i e co ela ion o ood secu i y a a p o incial scale (Fig.5). In I an,
small-scale a me s mainly cul i a e s aple c ops o a highe con ibu ion in hei ood baske s. Whe eas, la ge-
scale a ms mos ly p oduce cash c ops wi h a highe uni alue ($ −1) and a smalle con ibu ion in I anian’s
Table 3. To al and uni ine icien blue VW expo o di e en c op ca ego ies unde he ICFS and CCFS
scena ios o e he s udy pe iod (2005–2015).
C op ca ego y
ICFS scena io CCFS scena io
Ine icien blue VW expo Uni ine icien blue VW
expo Ine icien blue VW expo Uni ine icien blue VW
expo
(109 m3 y−1) (m3 ha−1) (109 m3 y−1) (m3 ha−1)
Ce eals 3.60 691 2.96 568
Roo and ube 0.13 611 0.13 611
Suga c ops 0.58 2653 0.50 2263
Pulses 0.53 1198 0.34 761
Nu s 0.91 1633 0.91 1633
Oil c ops 0.32 1121 0.26 915
Vege ables 0.39 1451 0.36 1336
F ui s 1.99 2868 1.42 2042
All c ops 8.45 1071 6.86 870
Figu e5. The co ela ions be ween sel -supplied p o incial ood secu i y and he selec ed (i) en i onmen al,
(ii) ag icul u al, (iii) economic, and (i ) social indica o s. (i.e., The Figu e is c ea ed in he en i onmen o
Mic oso O ice—Excel— e sion 10.).
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