Quan i a i e S o y elling: Science, na a i es and
unce ain y in nexus inno a ions
Louisa Jane Di Felice a; Viole a Cabello b; Maddalena Ripa c d; C is ina
Mad id a
a Ins i u e o En i onmen al Science and Technology, Uni e si a Au ònoma de
Ba celona, 08193 Bella e a, Spain
b Science Collab, Basque Cen e o Clima e Change
c Au onomous Uni e si y o Ba celona, Ba celona, Spain
d I alian Minis y o Educa ion, Uni e si y and Resea ch (MIUR), I aly
Abs ac
Inno a ions a e cen al ins umen s o sus ainabili y policies. They p ojec
u u e isions on o echnological solu ions, and enable win-win amings o
complex sus ainabili y issues. Ye , hey also c ea e new p oblems by
in e connec ing di e en esou ces such as wa e , ood and ene gy, wha is
known as he “WEF nexus.” In his pape , we apply a new app oach called
Quan i a i e S o y elling (QST) o he assessmen o ou inno a ions wi h a
s ong nexus componen in EU policy: bio uels, shale gas, elec ic ehicles, and
al e na i e wa e esou ces. Recognizing i educible plu alism and unce ain ies,
QST inspec s he ela ionships be ween he na a i es used o ame
sus ainabili y issues and he e idence on hose issues. Ou expe iences ou lined
wo a ionales o implemen ing QST. Fi s , QST can be used o ques ion
dominan na a i es ha p omo e ce ain inno a ions despi e e idence agains
hei e ec i eness. Second, QST can o e a enues o plu alis ic p ocesses o co-
c ea ion o al e na i e na a i es and imagina ies. We e lec on he
implemen a ion o QST and on he ole played by di e en unce ain ies
h oughou hese p ocesses. Ou expe iences sugges ha while he ole o
nexus assessmen s using bo h numbe s and na a i es may no be ins umen al
in di ec ly inducing policy change, hey a e aluable means o open discussions
on inno a ions ou side o dominan nexus imagina ies.
Keywo ds: na a i es, inno a ions, WEF nexus, complexi y, unce ain y
Published e sion in Science, Technology and Human Values:
h ps://doi.o g/10.1177/
1 In oduc ion
The analysis o sus ainabili y challenges in complex social-ecological
sys ems calls o he in eg a ion o mul iple analy ical me hods, ames, and
pe spec i es. The EU Ho izon 2020 p ojec MAGIC, sho o Mo ing Towa ds
Adap i e Go e nance in Complexi y: In o ming Nexus Secu i y, in es iga es he
ela ionships be ween nexus elemen s o social-ecological sys ems, such as
wa e , ene gy and ood, and he na a i es ha a e used o ame hose
ela ionships and sys ems (Ripa and Giampie o 2017). To do so, MAGIC
combines quan i a i e analyses, quali a i e analyses, and he engagemen o
di e en ac o s, h ough a ansdisciplina y app oach called Quan i a i e
S o y elling (QST). QST was p oposed o add ess gaps in he science o
go e nance li e a u e wi h espec o complexi y and unce ain y as g ound
p inciples o knowledge co-p oduc ion (Sal elli and Giampie o 2017). By
ecognizing he i educible plu ali y o complex eali y and he ine i able
exis ence o unce ain ies, QST aims o check he cohe ence be ween he
na a i es used o ame sus ainabili y issues ied o nexus dimensions and he
e idence on hose issues, whe e he e idence can be al eady exis ing, o newly
p oduced by QST esea che s. In his pape , we e lec on ou sha ed
expe iences o using he QST app oach in assessing he na a i es unde pinning
inno a ions o sus ainabili y, ocusing on ou inno a ions ha ha e a s ong
nexus componen : al e na i e wa e esou ces, bio uels, shale gas and elec ic
ehicles.
The concep o he wa e –ene gy– ood nexus was popula ized ollowing
he Bonn 2011 Nexus Con e ence, in esponse o clima e change and social
changes including popula ion g ow h, globaliza ion, economic g ow h and
u baniza ion (Ho 2011). A nexus lens emphasizes he complex ela ionships
be ween wa e , ene gy, and ood (Ha wood 2018). G ounded in a holis ic,
sys ems pe spec i e, c i ical nexus assessmen s can highligh he inhe en
ade-o s be ween sus ainabili y dimensions, showing how decisions aken in
one sec o o he nexus may ha e di ec o indi ec consequences on o he
sec o s ( an Ge el 2020). Howe e , discou ses o u u e pa hways can also ake
2
he o m o nexus imagina ies. In his case, a speci ic solu ion, o en in he o m
o inno a ion, is expec ed o simul aneously sol e p oblems ac oss mul iple
nexus dimensions (Cai ns and K zywoszynska 2016; P o enhaue and Jasano
2017). These win-win amings assume ha consequences o complex policy
decisions can be mapped on o bina y ou comes, gene a ing ei he winne s o
lose s (Jasano 2007). Focusing on he science-policy-socie y in e ace, (U bina i
e al. 2020) in oduce he “nexus o humili y” amewo k. Humili y is associa ed
wi h i educible unce ain y and epis emic plu alism. In his iew, he nexus
shi s om being a p oblem o be sol ed, o being a way o iewing p oblems.
Following his iew, in his pape and in he QST p ocess de eloped wi hin he
MAGIC p ojec we open ou nexus ocus om an objec -o ien ed one (i.e., he
nexus as a se o ma e ial ela ionships be ween wa e , ene gy and ood) o a
ela ional one (i.e., he nexus as an en angled se o ela ionships be ween
di e en obse e s and complex eali y). This iew includes di e en ac o s,
alues, and imagina ies wi hin nexus ela ionships.
In his pape , we ocus on nexus inno a ions in he Eu opean policy
con ex . Since inno a ions a e u u e-o ien ed, ac o s canno p edic - hen-ac
om an e idence base (Bo up e al. 2006). Faced wi h complex issues and
incomple e knowledge, hey mus ely on na a i es, expec a ions, and
imagina ies o a oid pa alysis. Ou de ini ion o na a i e is concep ually
g ounded in complexi y (Zellme , Allen, and Kesseboehme 2006) and in pos -
no mal science (Fun owicz and Ra e z 1993). Complexi y a ises om sys em-
obse e ela ionships: ep esen a ions o complex si ua ions canno be
comp essed in o a single, sel -consis en iew. This en ails imp edica i i y, wi h
e en s un olding and simul aneously a ec ing one ano he a di e en scales. As
such, he e is no unique di ec ion o causali y in complex sys ems (Mi chell
2002). Fo example, inno a ions a ec and a e a ec ed by beha io s, like in he
chicken-egg pa adox. To allow o decision-making in imp edica i e si ua ions,
na a i es a e used o simpli y eali y by i ing i wi hin a chosen (causal)
s o yline. When na a i es a e p ojec ed on o he u u e, hey become
expec a ions, i.e., “ u u e-o ien ed abs ac ions,” smoo hing unce ain ies o
p o ide a sha ed ision ha di e en ac o s can ac upon (Bo up e al. 2006).
Na a i es and expec a ions a e cons uc ed wi hin socio echnical
imagina ies, i.e., collec i ely held social belie s and alues de ining wha is
3
desi able (Jasano and Kim 2015). Imp edica i i y is also p esen in he
na a i e-imagina y ela ionship: on one hand, na a i es a e g ounded in
imagina ies; on he o he , hey can ein o ce hose imagina ies, o c ea e and
pe o m new ones. As wi h he chicken-egg pa adox, i is impossible o say
whe he a na a i e o an imagina y came i s , as hey co-c ea e one ano he
ac oss di e en imescales. Imagina ies help explain why, ou o he uni e se o
possibili ies, some isions o echno-scien i ic and social o de win suppo o e
o he s, educing he inde e minacy o he u u e. Ac o s may choose o iew
complex sus ainabili y challenges using di e en na a i es, g ounded in hei
own imagina ies and expec a ions. This gene a es a plu ali y o oices and
alues (Jasano 2007; Allen and Giampie o 2006). To handle his plu ali y,
scien i ic knowledge mus ac i ely deal wi h he unce ain y associa ed wi h he
exis ence o di e se na a i es. By ecognizing mul iple (and o en con adic o y)
legi ima e pe spec i es, he a en ion o QST is placed on how inno a ions a e
amed, wha e idence is used o suppo hem, and how e idence and
na a i es in e ac . Th oughou he p ocess, he ole played by di e en ypes o
unce ain ies in science-policy ela ions is obse ed.
In he es o his pape , we p esen a me a-analysis o ou case s udies
ca ied ou wi hin he MAGIC p ojec , looking a he na a i es behind al e na i e
wa e esou ces, elec ic ehicles, bio uels, and shale gas wi hin Eu opean
con ex s. Each case s udy was de eloped by applying he QST app oach o
discuss he ole played by hose inno a ions in sol ing complex sus ainabili y
p oblems. De ails on indi idual case s udies can be ound in Cabello e al. (2020,
2021) o al e na i e wa e esou ces; Di Felice e al. (2020) and Di Felice,
Renne , and Giampie o (2021) o elec ic ehicles; Cadillo-Benalcaza e al.
(2020) and Ripa, Cadillo-Benalcaza , and Giampie o (2021) o bio uels and
Mad id Lopez (2020) o shale gas. By explo ing he commonali ies and
di e ences o he case s udies, we e- ame QST as a ool o na iga e and
inspec science-policy ela ions, using ou expe iences o e lec on he
in e ac ions be ween scien i ic assessmen s, plu al na a i es, and unce ain y in
he go e nance o nexus inno a ions.
4
2 Quan i a i e S o y elling, Na a i es & Unce ain y
QST was de eloped wi hin MAGIC as a common me hodological g ound o
ansdisciplina y nexus esea ch (Ma hews e al. 2017). I builds and expands on
he accoun ing scheme known as MuSIASEM (Mul i-Scale Analysis o Socie al and
Ecological Me abolism), de eloped p io o QST o quan i a i e accoun ing o he
nexus ac oss scales (Giampie o, Mayumi, and Ramos-Ma in 2009; Giampie o
e al. 2014). MuSIASEM is g ounded in bio-economics, complexi y, and hie a chy
heo y. I con ibu es o sys em pe spec i es o sus ainabili y issues, by
desc ibing social-ecological sys ems ac oss hie a chical le els, geog aphical and
empo al scales. MuSIASEM is cha ac e ized by a ocus on he ela ions among
nexus a iables -- how wa e , ood, ene gy, land, GHG emissions, labo , e c. a e
in e linked in social-ecological p ocesses a di e en analy ical le els.
Complexi y in sys em-obse e ela ionships means ha si ua ions can be
iewed di e en ly depending on how a p oblem is amed and analyzed, and by
whom (Rosen 1991; Ko acic and Giampie o 2015). The way ac o s choose o
ame and add ess eali y builds on hei na a i es, which canno be ue o
alse. In his con ex , MuSIASEM does no aim o gene a e quan i a i e
assessmen s ha a e ue o co ec , bu ones which a e cohe en a a gi en
poin in ime, by linking numbe s and a iables ac oss scales and le els (wha is
also known as he “Sudoku e ec ” (Giampie o and Bukkens 2015)). To do so,
MuSIASEM accoun s o he inpu s and ou pu s associa ed wi h p ocesses a a
chosen scale o analysis (e.g., he amoun o wa e consumed, and g eenhouse
gases emi ed by a powe plan ) and agg ega es hose p ocesses o highe -
scale, con ex ualized desc ip ions (e.g., he amoun o wa e consumed, and
g eenhouse gases emi ed by he elec ici y sec o o a coun y, in a gi en yea ).
Fo mo e de ails on MuSIASEM, see (Giampie o e al. 2014).
QST b oadens MuSIASEM o include cohe ence no only be ween numbe s
a di e en le els and scales, bu also be ween numbe s and he na a i es hey
build on. This leads o a shi om MuSIASEM’s goal o gene a ing cohe en
quan i a i e assessmen s, o a wide goal in QST o gene a ing assessmen s ha
a e i o pu pose (i.e., adequa e in add essing desi ed conce ns) (Fun owicz and
Ra e z 1990). Fo example, i he conce n is ensu ing secu i y o ene gy supply
in a coun y, MuSIASEM builds a cohe en analysis by b eaking down he coun y
in o i s di e en egions, sec o s in o sub-sec o s, and linking ene gy p oduc ion
and consump ion pa e ns wi h o he nexus dimensions. Wi h a b oade scope,
5
QST would add phases o quali a i e analysis and/o public in e ac ion o answe
ques ions such as: Why is secu i y impo an , and o whom is i impo an ? Wha
un old s o ies a e associa ed wi h o icial secu i y na a i es?
Ini ial
na a i es
F ame he
analysis
Design & un
MuSIASEM
Feedback on
na a i es
?
The QST
cycle
Figu e 1. Ini ial QST cycle
Figu e 1 shows he ini ial concep ualiza ion o QST as an i e a i e cycle,
wi h a quan i a i e pa and a quali a i e one (cha ac e ized by he analysis o
na a i es). A he s a o he cycle, na a i es ele an o a gi en inno a ion
a e iden i ied. F om hose na a i es, nexus p oblems o be explo ed a e amed.
A MuSIASEM analysis is hen designed and execu ed. The in o ma ion p oduced
by he quan i a i e analysis is hen in e p e ed, eeding back in o he pool o
na a i es on he opic. QST allows o each s ep o be de eloped in di e en
ways, depending on he pu pose o he cycle. This is due bo h o he openness o
he app oach, and o he ac ha i is s ill new, and hus no igo ously
o malized. Engagemen ac i i ies can be used a any s age o he QST p ocess:
o iden i y na a i es, o design he quan i a i e assessmen o o in e p e and
discuss esul s. C ucially, ac o s a e in ol ed in he inal s age o sha ing and
alida ing analy ical eedback. I he na a i es a e aken om in e iews wi h
policymake s, o example, he QST cycle ideally closes by p esen ing hose
policymake s wi h in o ma ion, leading o he eme gence o a di e en se o
na a i es in ela ion o he p oblem a hand.
6
To unde s and conce ns a ound inno a ions and he p oblems hey a e
supposed o add ess, we dis inguish be ween h ee ypes o in e ela ed policy
na a i es o s a he cycle, which can be iden i ied ei he h ough di ec
in e iews wi h ele an ac o s, o h ough ex analyses o policy documen s (o
bo h): jus i ica ion na a i es, no ma i e na a i es, and explana ion na a i es
(Giampie o 2018). No ma i e na a i es answe he ques ion: “Wha should be
done?” Jus i ica ion na a i es ope a e a a highe le el o abs ac ion, answe ing
he ques ion: “Why should i be done?” They iden i y ele an conce ns o be
add essed and ela e hem wi h solu ions and no ma i e goals. In doing so, hey
c ea e expec a ions o he pe o mance o hose solu ions. Explana ion
na a i es ope a e a a lowe abs ac ion le el, answe ing he ques ion: “How
should i be done?” They speci y he condi ions unde which hose goals should
be pu sued. This axonomy is use ul in mapping ela ions among policy
na a i es, bu i does no ca y in o ma ion abou who he na a i e is
gene a ed by, and o wha pu pose. To include his posi ionali y dimension, we
ollow he dis inc ion be ween dominan and al e na i e imagina ies used by
(Longhu s and Chil e s 2019), ansla ing i in o dominan and al e na i e
na a i es. In his logic, dominan na a i es a e hose gene a ed wi hin cen e s
o powe . These cen e s could be go e nmen ins i u ions, academic ones,
lobbies, e c. The e can be con as ing dominan na a i es a di e en
go e nance le els, e.g., EU na a i es e sus hose o a local go e nmen .
Al e na i e na a i es a e decen alized ones, gene a ed ou side o hese cen e s
o powe . This dis inc ion, which is dependen on le els o go e nance, is use ul
when discussing he possible impac s o scien i ic assessmen s. The o iginal goal
o QST was one o alsi ica ion o dominan inno a ion na a i es, using mul i-
scale nexus assessmen s o show how hese na a i es a e no necessa ily
g ounded in biophysical eali y. In his con ex , he aim was o subs i u e
dominan inno a ion na a i es wi h a se o al e na i e ones which a e mo e
cohe en ac oss en i onmen al and socio- echnical dimensions and i o he
conce ns hey a e mean o add ess. This goal, howe e , had impo an
limi a ions as i iewed inno a ions as pu ely ma e ial, a he han poli ical,
objec s. We will e lec on his in Sec ions 4 and 5.
As men ioned in he In oduc ion, QST also ecognizes ha unce ain y is
ine i able in he p ocesses o knowledge p oduc ion and decision-making.
Following he wo k o (Knigh 1921), (Wynne 1992), and (S i ling 2003),
7
unce ain y can be u he spli in o he concep s o isk, s ic unce ain y,
igno ance, inde e minacy and ambigui y. Wi h isk, he odds a e known; in s ic
unce ain y, unknowns a e known; in igno ance, unknowns a e unknown.
Inde e minacy and ambigui y a e i educible p ope ies o complexi y: he o me
e e s o he ac ha complex sys ems a e cha ac e ized by open causal chains,
while he la e e e s o he i educibili y o plu al pe spec i es (Ko acic and Di
Felice 2019). The unc ionali y o ambigui y in decision-making p ocesses has
been long acknowledged. In he policy ealm, (Ma land 1995) i s made he
dis inc ion be ween ambigui y o means (plu al explana ion na a i es) and
ambigui y o goals (plu al no ma i e na a i es), each being unc ional in o de
o each policy decisions. The e is also ambigui y in he p oblem aming (plu al
jus i ica ion na a i es) when ac o s ha e di e en unde s andings and
unde lying assump ions on wha he p oblem is, and why i is a p oblem
(B ugnach and Ing am 2012). Hen y Kissinge e e ed o “cons uc i e
ambigui y” as he “delibe a e use o ambiguous language in a sensi i e issue in
o de o ad ance some poli ical pu pose” (Be idge and James 2003, 51).
Howe e , ecognizing ou g ounding in complexi y, i is impo an he e o make
he dis inc ion be ween agueness and ambigui y (Ko acic and Di Felice 2019).
The o me e e s o lack o cla i y when using a e m (so cons uc i e ambigui y,
o us, alls unde agueness) and is a poli ical choice. Fo example, he
s a emen ha oil impo s o he EU a e om poli ically uns able egions (EC
2013) is ague, as i pu pose ully does no name hese egions. Ambigui y, on
he o he hand, has a wide scope as i e e s o incommensu abili y. The
concep o ene gy secu i y is ambiguous no because i lacks cla i y, bu because
mul iple de ini ions o ene gy secu i y can co-exis . This dis inc ion is ele an o
he case s udies p esen ed below.
3 Applica ions o QST
This pape d aws on ou case s udies assessing inno a ions wi h QST in
he MAGIC p ojec : bio uels, shale gas, elec ic ehicles, and al e na i e wa e
esou ces (Boxes 1-4). The inno a ions we e chosen due o hei ela ions wi h
he nexus elemen s o wa e , ood, ene gy and clima e. In his sec ion, we b ie ly
desc ibe he main cha ac e is ics o each case s udy (Table 1) and discuss
commonali ies and di e ences wi h ega ds o hei pu pose, me hods, and
esul s.
8
BOX 1 - Bio uels as an example o he clima e-ene gy- ood nexus in he EU.
Inno a ion: Bio uels e e o liquid uels o anspo p oduced om biomass
(EC 2018, 104). The echnological de elopmen o his inno a ion can be
de ined as ma u e o i s gene a ion bio uels, i.e., ood c ops bio uels, and
eme ging o ad anced bio uels, i.e., bio uels p oduced om a ious ypes o
non- ood biomass, as some o hem a e s ill a a non-comme cial s age (Cheng
and Timilsina 2011).
Nexus ele ance: The p oduc ion o bio uels can be in ui i ely linked o
mul iple nexus dimensions, such as he compe i ion o i s gene a ion bio uels
wi h ood o land and wa e ; and he ene ge ic and economic con enience o
ad anced bio uels.
Eu opean policies: Policies o bio uels and ad anced bio uels ha e been in
place since 2003 wi h he bio uels di ec i e (Di ec i e 2003/30/EC). The
e ised Renewable Ene gy Di ec i e (REDII) (2018) in oduced a 14% RES-
anspo a ion ene gy a ge and a 3.5% ad anced bio uels sub- a ge by 2030
(EC 2018).
BOX 2 - Shale gas as an example o he wa e -ene gy nexus in he EU
.
Inno a ion: Shale gas is an uncon en ional sou ce o na u al gas held in shale
s one po es. I s exploi a ion inc eases he a ailabili y o na u al gas. I is
conside ed as a means o inc ease ene gy secu i y and geopoli ical powe
ela ed o ene gy, and as a d i e o u al de elopmen .
Nexus ele ance: Shale gas is ex ac ed wi h hyd aulic ac u ing o acking,
a echnology ha d ills in o he ea h and injec s a high-p essu e mix u e o
wa e s and chemicals o ac u e laye s o shale s one, eleasing gas. Thus, he
p ocess o acking is deeply ied o impac s on wa e and land.
Eu opean policies: Following he U.S. expe ience and in p epa a ion o a
si ua ion o se e e na u al gas supply sho age, he EU conside ed in he ea ly
2010s i and how shale gas should be de eloped and a egula o y amewo k
o guide a po en ial implemen a ion o he inno a ion was buil (EC 2014b).
The EU Ene gy Roadmap 2050 sees shale gas as a po en ially impo an new
sou ce o na u al gas o suppo he ene gy ansi ion (EC 2012).
9
Bio uels Shale gas Elec ic
ehicles
Al e na i e
wa e
esou ces
REFERENCES Cadillo-
Benalcaza
e al. 2021;
M. Ripa,
Cadillo-
Benalcaza ,
and
Giampie o
2021
Mad
id Lopez
2020
Di Felice e al.
2020; Di
Felice,
Renne , and
Giampie o
2021
Cabello e al.
2020, 2021
SCOPE Pu pose o
he QST
cycle
Check obus ness o
dominan jus i ica ion
na a i es
C i ical e lec ion on
unce ain ies and al e na i es
Go e nanc
e le el
Eu opean Eu opean Eu opean Local/Regional
Geog aphi
cal scale
Na ional/
Eu opean
Na ional/
Ri e Basin/
Eu opean
(Regionalize
d)
Eu opean Local/
Regional
METHODS Na a i e
analysis
Policy ex
analysis;
scien i ic
li e a u e
e iew
Policy ex
analysis,
in e iews
(5)
Policy ex
analysis
Semi-
s uc u ed
in e iews
(27) o ac o s
holding
knowledge on
wa e , ood
and ene gy
managemen
Quan i a i
e
analysis
Analysis o
p oduc ion,
impo s, and
expo s o
bio uels in
he
Ne he lands
and Eu ope
GIS
scena io o
wa e -
ene gy
nexus o
demog aph
ic pa e ns
o
Analysis o
nexus
dimensions o
elec ic
ehicles:
ene gy
consump ion,
GHG
Mul i-le el
diagnosis o
wa e - ood
supply nexus
pa e ns o
a ming
sys ems.
Ene gy cos
16
ex ac ion
wells
emissions,
local ai
emissions,
labo
in es men s
and ma e ial
equi emen s.
o wa e
sou ces.
Numbe s-
na a i es
ela ion
Nega i e eedback,
alsi ica ion
Nega i e and posi i e eedback,
explo e unce ain ies
ENGAGEM
ENT
Pu pose Valida ion (o no ) o he
alsi ica ion o dominan
na a i es
Re lexi i y on he na a i es,
co-c ea ion o new na a i es
Numbe
and ype
o ac i i y
1 wo kshop In e iews
Failed
wo kshop
2 wo kshops In e iews
2 wo kshops in
he Cana y
Islands
Engaged
ac o s
Ene gy
modele s and
EU
policymake s
EU
policymake ,
indus y,
academics,
and ele an
NGOs.
Regional
coope a i es
and ci il
socie y g oups,
u ban planne s
and decision-
make s a EU
Regions &
Ci ies week,
PhD s uden s
Ag icul u al
and wa e
managemen
o ganiza ions,
public
au ho i ies,
academics,
ci il socie y,
s uden s
4 Discussion
Inno a ions a e no jus ma e ial objec s. They a e g ounded in
imagina ies ha ely on alues, emo ions, and expec a ions beyond wha can be
discussed solely h ough quan i a i e assessmen s. A ela ional nexus lens can
open he assessmen o inno a ions o include he na a i es and imagina ies
ha hese inno a ions a e g ounded in, and which hey con ibu e o, ela ing
hem o ma e ial dimensions. Ou QST p ocesses highligh ed he dominan
na a i es jus i ying he implemen a ion o nexus inno a ions in Eu opean
17
policies. In he bio uel and shale gas cases, we obse ed expec a ions o an
ene gy-secu e Eu ope g ounded in poli ical needs o o e come he bo leneck
c ea ed by he dependence on impo ed oil and gas. To a oid a poli ical s all,
go e nance shi s o he managemen o expec a ions (Bo up e al. 2006). On
he o he hand, he p omo ion o elec ic ehicles and al e na i e wa e
esou ces elies on expec a ions o hese echnologies as e ec i e solu ions o
p essing social-ecological conce ns such as clima e change and wa e sca ci y.
Ul ima ely, he ou inno a ions p o ide an a enue o econciling he ensions
be ween con lic ing policy goals (Ko acic, Romme ei , and S and 2020): wi h
economic g ow h being con inuously coupled wi h en i onmen al p o ec ion, he
EU may pu sue i s leade ship o sus ainable g ow h while depoli icizing he
ma e ial equi emen s and impac s o such g ow h (Le idow 2013). Dominan
na a i es placed he inno a ions wi hin nexus imagina ies (Cai ns and
K zywoszynska 2016). By aming each solu ion as he mos desi able one in
ela ion o mul iple and some imes changing conce ns, unce ain ies associa ed
wi h he inno a ions a e minimized o igno ed, adeo s a e pu po edly
esol ed, and possible al e na i es a e cas aside.
Ou quan i a i e assessmen s se ed o explo e whe he he inno a ions’
dominan na a i es we e cohe en when checked om a mul i-scale nexus
pe spec i e. Fo bio uels and shale gas, jus i ica ions we e ques ioned wi h
biophysical e idence, in o de o alsi y hem; o elec ic ehicles and al e na i e
wa e esou ces, he dominance o he no ma i e-jus i ica ion ela ionship was
ques ioned, opening he space o al e na i es o eme ge. Looking back a
Sec ion 2, we asked whe he he inno a ions mee hei ma e ial expec a ions.
Fo bio uels, his is clea ly no he case. Fo shale gas, ma e ial expec a ions
un old ac oss di e en scales. Indi idual wells p o ide a su plus o ene gy and
economic e enue ha o some landowne s may jus i y he impac s o e wa e
and land. Howe e , when i comes o he EU’s expec a ions o using shale gas o
ansi ion o clean ene gy, his would no be possible a he la ge scale due o
wa e and land equi emen s. Fo EVs, he answe is also “i depends”: ou case
s udy highligh ed he a ious sou ces o unce ain y ied o hose expec a ions
( o example, s udies claiming ha GHG emissions will be educed wi h EVs, and
s udies claiming he opposi e). Fo al e na i e wa e esou ces, ma e ial
expec a ions a e mos ly me : hese esou ces sus ain a a ie y o a ming
sys ems and wa e ables ha e s opped d opping. In addi ion, he e is a s ong
18
sense o secu i y de i ed om he lack o eshwa e esou ces (con olled in a
specula i e p i a e ma ke ). Fa me s now know whe e hey can ge wa e , a
s able supply and p ices.
We also asked wha unce ain ies su ound he implemen a ion o hese
inno a ions. On one hand, ambigui y o goals allows o policy measu es such as
bio uels and shale gas o pe sis despi e con as ing biophysical e idence. On he
o he , s ic unce ain y and inde e minacy allow o elec ic ehicles and
al e na i e wa e esou ces o be amed in a posi i e ligh , wi h ambigui y also
playing a pa in he jus i ica ions associa ed wi h hese inno a ions. This iew
o unce ain ies and hei unde lying poli ics cas s doub on whe he mul i-scale
assessmen s can di ec ly shi dominan policy na a i es and imagina ies
(Tu nhou e al. 2020).
F om an implemen a ion pe spec i e, ou quan i a i e assessmen s we e
no discussed wi h EU policymake s, pa ially because o a s ong esis ance o
ac o s om Eu opean ins i u ions o ge in ol ed in he p ojec . This led o he
engagemen o o he ac o s who did no eel ully e lec ed in he na a i es
p esen ed, while also ha ing a limi ed capaci y o di ec ly in luence Eu opean
policies. The impo ance o engaging ele an ac o s om he onse o co-
p oduc ion p ocesses has been ex ensi ely signaled (No s öm e al. 2020). Ye ,
we ha e lea n ha when hose ac o s ejec pa icipa ing, QST may s ill o e
ele an a enues o explo a ion.
A discussion buil on bo h na a i es and numbe s o e ed he oppo uni y
o collec i ely e lec on he ecosys em o na a i es ha su ounds complex
sus ainabili y challenges wi h a a ie y o ac o s. Fo example, in he elec ic
ehicle wo kshops, exis ing e idence on how GHG emissions a e ied o he size
o ehicles spa ked deba es abou he ension be ween en i onmen al bene i s
o he ehicles, and he EU’s p io i y o boos ing i s au omo i e indus y. In he
bio uel wo kshop, when p esen ed wi h EU bio uel jus i ica ion na a i es and
con as ing e idence, ene gy modele s acknowledged exis ing ade-o s in he
bio uel supply chain, sugges ing ha bio uels end o play a small pa in he
cons uc ion o hei scena ios. In his sense, he modele s we e al eady awa e o
he biophysical limi a ions played by bio uels. G ounding he discussion in bo h
na a i es and me ics c ea ed he oppo uni y o discuss how hei own iews o
he ole o bio uels di e om he EU’s o icial aming. This ou come ques ions
19
he p e e ence o using solely quan i a i e ools in he nexus li e a u e
(Alb ech , C oo o , and Sco 2018) by sugges ing ha quali a i e and plu al
amings o nexus ela ions a e c ucial o b ing poli ics in o e lexi e
assessmen s ( an Ge el 2020).
In addi ion o discussing dominan na a i es and hei e idence base, o
he cases o elec ic ehicles and al e na i e wa e esou ces he engagemen
p ocesses se ed o open con e sa ions on con ex and al e na i es. The
wo kshops on elec ic ehicles held space o imagining al e na i e solu ions o
he unsus ainabili y o he anspo sys em, by en isioning he u u e o ci ies
and o u al-u ban di ides. The discussion ocused on he po en ial oles o ca -
sha ing, public anspo , walking and cycling in shaping u u e anspo
sys ems. This, in u n, led o b oade con e sa ions abou whe e esponsibili y
lies, and abou he local dimensions o mobili y, sugges ing ha elec ic ehicles
may be use ul in some con ex s, and less so in o he s. The wo kshops on
al e na i e wa e esou ces ocused on discussing wha new oles could be
en isioned o hese inno a ions wi hin u u es wi h mo e sus ainable a ming
p ac ices. F aming he con e sa ion a ound desi able u u es helped expand he
deba e om he echnicali ies o wa e managemen o he di icul ies small
a ming sys ems ace o s ay a loa wi hin an expo -impo s based Eu opean
ood policy. Ou ou comes in e ms o con ex ualizing and b oadening
discussions, as well as empi ical and me hodological insigh s o STS, add o calls
o “opening up” he assessmen o inno a ions and o he nexus (S i ling 2008;
U bina i e al. 2020).
20
New na a i es &
imagina ies
No ma i e
na a i es
Dominan nexus imagina y
Jus i ica ion
na a i es
QST: open he
ela ionship up o
plu ali y
QST: alsi y he
ela ionship
Di use impac s Di use impac s
?
?
Jus i ica ion
na a i es
No ma i e
na a i es
Jus i ica ion
na a i es
No ma i e
na a i es
Figu e 2. QST as a means o ques ion dominan imagina ies
Building on ou sha ed expe iences, QST can be e- amed om he closed
cycle o Figu e 1 o a means o opening he deba e o science-policy ela ions o
wide audiences, discussing dominan imagina ies as shown in Figu e 2. When
he p omo ion o an inno a ion esponds o es ed in e es s, like we obse ed in
he cases on bio uels and shale gas, he QST ou e o alsi ica ion can ques ion
whe he dominan na a i es a e cohe en by ampli ying c i ical e idence and
al e na i e na a i es. This is a s a egy o include “unknown knowns” in he o
ou ou case s udies, dominan EU na a i es ie oge he economic g ow h,
secu i y, en i onmen al p o ec ion, and local de elopmen . Nexus inno a ions
a e seen as a way o simul aneously add ess hese mul iple conce ns, con i ming
21
he exis ence o wha has been e med in he li e a u e as “nexus imagina ies”
(Cai ns and K zywoszynska 2016).
In his con ex , simply p esen ing policymake s wi h biophysical e idence
is no enough o gene a e change in hei na a i es. On one hand, inno a ions
a e ine i ably ied o di e en ypes o unce ain y ha may se e poli ical
pu poses and canno be educed by p oducing addi ional quan i a i e
assessmen s. On he o he hand, he e may be limi ed in e es o hese kinds o
c i ical esul s, as ou a emp s o engage wi h policymake s sugges . This,
howe e , does no mean ha analyses such as QST, whe e ela ionships
be ween numbe s and na a i es a e ou lined, do no ha e a place in he cu en
ecosys em o science o policy. Wha we saw h ough ou engagemen e en s is
ha QST may be used o ques ion exis ing na a i es and co-c ea e new
imagina ies. In his way, by discussing inno a ions beyond hei ma e ial
dimensions, he nexus can become a lens ha accommoda es plu al isions.
Gi en he expe imen al na u e o he case s udies, he e a e many
limi a ions o QST in i s cu en o m, and o he me a-analysis ha can be
ex ac ed om he ou inno a ions. While we p o ided wo main “ ou es” which
may be aken h ough QST ( alsi ica ion s. opening up o plu ali y), he
ope a ionaliza ion o QST a he me hodological le el is no ye o malized – in
his i s i e a ion, di e en esea che s made di e en decisions ega ding hei
own case s udies. We hope ha his pape can se e as a poin o e lec ion o
esea che s o mo e o wa d in mo e coo dina ed s eps. This includes
engagemen ac i i ies, an impo an pa o QST ha was implemen ed in
di e en ways. Fu he discussion is needed o e lec upon he ole o
engagemen in QST and mo e b oadly in he analysis o science-policy ela ions.
On his, he di icul y in engaging ele an ac o s om he onse was pa icula ly
limi ing, and u u e i e a ions o QST may ha e o e- ocus objec i es by keeping
his limi a ion in mind. When i comes o impac s, we men ioned in ou
discussion how QST may lead o di use impac s, which a e ha de o quan i y.
While we do no belie e ha hese impac s should be educed o me ics, i
would be ui ul o hink o ways o ack hese p ocesses o e ime, o example
h ough he analysis o he e olu ion o na a i es, o he engagemen o he
same ac o s ac oss he yea s. This would equi e mul iple i e a ions o QST, while
wha we p esen ed he e was an indi idual “cycle.” We a e awa e ha his kind o
22
wo k would equi e ex ensi e ime and ene gy, and ha unding bodies may be
eluc an o in es in acking long- e m, di use impac s o expe imen al wo k o
his so . S ill, we hope ha ou e lec ions may p o ide ood o hough o
hose esea ching nexus inno a ions and hei ole in science-policy ela ions,
and ha he insigh s gene a ed by ou i s i e a ion o QST can en ich exis ing
me hods and app oaches. p ocess (Giampie o and Fun owicz 2020).
Al e na i ely, when oppo uni ies o plu alis ic p ocesses a ise, one migh op o
a co-c ea ion ou e a ending o di e en unce ain ies in symme ical dialogical
ela ions (Gia i 2019). Ra he han di ec policy o na a i e change, he
ou comes om hese p ocesses migh be di e se and di use. They ex end
beyond he obse ed ime ame and a e ha de o ace o quan i y. In he long
un, ou es o his kind may con ibu e o sha ed al e na i e imagina ies ha
may, in u n, lead o changes in he go e nance o nexus inno a ions.
Impo an ly, Figu e 2 eme ged om a i s un o expe imen a ion o QST: as
such, s eps a e no ye o malized. While we belie e ha a deg ee o openness in
he me hodology is necessa y o accommoda e a a ie y o case s udies, ac o s,
and objec i es, u he es ing and implemen a ion a e needed o discuss how
QST can be used in consis en ways ac oss di e se case s udies.
5 Concluding ema ks
Scien is s a e inc easingly asked o p oduce policy- ele an esea ch,
in ended as esea ch ha can ha e di ec , quan i iable impac s on decision-
making p ocesses. In his pape , we ha e p esen ed and e lec ed upon ou
expe iences o implemen ing QST, an app oach ini ially aimed a assessing
dominan inno a ion na a i es and empi ically es ing hem h ough mul i-scale
nexus assessmen s, o eplace hem wi h na a i es ha a e g ounded in
biophysical eali y. Ou expe iences speak o he ole played by socio- echnical
imagina ies in shaping policy solu ions, pa icula ly inno a ions. We ound ha
o ou ou case s udies, dominan EU na a i es ie oge he economic g ow h,
secu i y, en i onmen al p o ec ion, and local de elopmen . Nexus inno a ions
a e seen as a way o simul aneously add ess hese mul iple conce ns, con i ming
he exis ence o wha has been e med in he li e a u e as “nexus imagina ies”
(Cai ns and K zywoszynska 2016).
23
In his con ex , simply p esen ing policymake s wi h biophysical e idence
is no enough o gene a e change in hei na a i es. On one hand, inno a ions
a e ine i ably ied o di e en ypes o unce ain y ha may se e poli ical
pu poses and canno be educed by p oducing addi ional quan i a i e
assessmen s. On he o he hand, he e may be limi ed in e es o hese kinds o
c i ical esul s, as ou a emp s o engage wi h policymake s sugges . This,
howe e , does no mean ha analyses such as QST, whe e ela ionships
be ween numbe s and na a i es a e ou lined, do no ha e a place in he cu en
ecosys em o science o policy. Wha we saw h ough ou engagemen e en s is
ha QST may be used o ques ion exis ing na a i es and co-c ea e new
imagina ies. In his way, by discussing inno a ions beyond hei ma e ial
dimensions, he nexus can become a lens ha accommoda es plu al isions.
Gi en he expe imen al na u e o he case s udies, he e a e many
limi a ions o QST in i s cu en o m, and o he me a-analysis ha can be
ex ac ed om he ou inno a ions. While we p o ided wo main “ ou es” which
may be aken h ough QST ( alsi ica ion s. opening up o plu ali y), he
ope a ionaliza ion o QST a he me hodological le el is no ye o malized – in
his i s i e a ion, di e en esea che s made di e en decisions ega ding hei
own case s udies. We hope ha his pape can se e as a poin o e lec ion o
esea che s o mo e o wa d in mo e coo dina ed s eps. This includes
engagemen ac i i ies, an impo an pa o QST ha was implemen ed in
di e en ways. Fu he discussion is needed o e lec upon he ole o
engagemen in QST and mo e b oadly in he analysis o science-policy ela ions.
On his, he di icul y in engaging ele an ac o s om he onse was pa icula ly
limi ing, and u u e i e a ions o QST may ha e o e- ocus objec i es by keeping
his limi a ion in mind. When i comes o impac s, we men ioned in ou
discussion how QST may lead o di use impac s, which a e ha de o quan i y.
While we do no belie e ha hese impac s should be educed o me ics, i
would be ui ul o hink o ways o ack hese p ocesses o e ime, o example
h ough he analysis o he e olu ion o na a i es, o he engagemen o he
same ac o s ac oss he yea s. This would equi e mul iple i e a ions o QST, while
wha we p esen ed he e was an indi idual “cycle.” We a e awa e ha his kind o
wo k would equi e ex ensi e ime and ene gy, and ha unding bodies may be
eluc an o in es in acking long- e m, di use impac s o expe imen al wo k o
his so . S ill, we hope ha ou e lec ions may p o ide ood o hough o
24
hose esea ching nexus inno a ions and hei ole in science-policy ela ions,
and ha he insigh s gene a ed by ou i s i e a ion o QST can en ich exis ing
me hods and app oaches.
Acknowledgemen s
This esea ch has been unded by: he Eu opean Union’s H2020 p ojec MAGIC:
Mo ing Towa ds Adap i e Go e nance in Complexi y (MAGIC GA No. 689669);
Eu opean Union’s FP7 p ojec IANEX: In eg a ed Assessmen o he Nexus: he
case o hyd aulic ac u ing, Ma ie Cu ie In e na ional Ou going Fellowship GA
No. 623593; Spanish Minis y o Science’ Juan de la Cie a Fellowship IJC2019-
038847-I/ AEI / 10.13039/501100011033; Ma ia de Mae zu CEX2019-000940-M.
The p esen wo k e lec s only he au ho s' iew and he unding Agencies
canno be held esponsible o any use ha may be made o he in o ma ion i
con ains. The au ho s a e g a e ul o he Sci-Hub ee knowledge pla o m om
which many o he e e enced pape s could be accessed.
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