1
This is he Accep ed Manusc ip o “U ueña, S. (2023). Enac ing an icipa o y heu is ics:
A en a i e me hodological p oposal o s ee ing esponsible inno a ion. Jou nal o
Responsible Inno a ion, 10 (1): 1–32 (A icle: 2160552). ISSN: 2329-9460. doi:
10.1080/23299460.2022.2160552”.
The Ve sion o Reco d o his manusc ip has been published and is eely a ailable in
Jou nal o Responsible Inno a ion 10(1) 2023
h ps://www. and online.com/doi/10.1080/23299460.2022.2160552
Enac ing an icipa o y heu is ics: A en a i e me hodological p oposal
o s ee ing esponsible inno a ion
Se gio U ueñaab
a Depa men o Philosophy, Uni e si y o he Basque Coun y UPV/EHU
b Cen e o Technology and Socie y, Depa men o In e disciplina y S udies o
Cul u e, No wegian Uni e si y o Science and Technology
Email: se gio.u [email protected]
ORCID: 0000-0002-1084-2709
Acknowledgmen s
This wo k was suppo ed by he Spanish Minis y o Science and Inno a ion and he
Spanish S a e Resea ch Agency unde P ojec G an PID2020-114279RB-I00, and by
he Spanish Minis y o Economy and Compe i i eness and he Eu opean Regional
De elopmen Fund unde G an BES-2016-079192. The au ho would also like o hank
he Depa men o In e disciplina y S udies o Cul u e and he No wegian Uni e si y o
Science and Technology (NTNU), especially o Knu H. Sø ensen o his kind insigh s
on ea ly d a s o his wo k. Any inaccu acies emain he esponsibili y o he au ho .
The au ho does no decla e any con lic o in e es
2
Enac ing an icipa o y heu is ics: A me hodological p oposal o
s ee ing esponsible inno a ion
Abs ac
O e he pas decade, a ious no ma i e amewo ks ha aim o p omo e mo e
esponsible go e nance o esea ch and inno a ion in e ms o be e aligning
wi h socie y’s demands and expec a ions ha e eme ged. Among he common
aspec s o hese no ma i e amewo ks and p oposals is he eliance on o esigh
and/o an icipa ion as a key in e en i e dimension o ins umen . The a icle
e iews he main challenges o which an icipa ion has been explici ly o
implici ly di ec ed and he espec i e me hodological app oaches ha ha e been
associa ed wi h hem. In doing so, he a icle diagnoses a agmen a ion in he
me hodological ea men o he di e en challenges. Agains his agmen a ion,
a mul i- o esigh me hodology is p oposed. The p oposed me hodology no only
add esses he agmen a ion p oblem by emb acing he di e en challenges posed
o o esigh /an icipa ion o p omo ing mo e socio-poli ically esponsible
echnoscien i ic and inno a ion p ac ices, bu also aims o minimise he unc i ical
ei ica ion o u u es.
Keywo ds: o esigh ; esponsible inno a ion; me hods; RRI; echnology
assessmen .
1. In oduc ion
Mul iple ecen umb ella amewo ks poin o he need o an icipa ion as an ope a ional
dimension o p omo ing mo e esponsible esea ch and inno a ion. An icipa o y
Go e nance (AG) (Ba ben e al. 2008; Gus on 2014), Responsible Inno a ion (RI)
(S ilgoe e al. 2013), Responsible Resea ch o Inno a ion (RRI) (Eu opean Commission
2013b, 2013a; on Schombe g 2013), o ecen de elopmen s in Technology
Assessmen (TA) (G unwald 2019) a e examples o no ma i e app oaches ha
explici ly ely on an icipa ion as a cen al— hough no he sole—p ocedu al dimension
3
o imp o e co-p oduc ion dynamics in science, echnology, and inno a ion (STI).
1
In con as o he adi ional and his o ically dominan p edic i e-based
app oaches o STI go e nance, an icipa ion in hese no ma i e models akes on a mo e
e lexi e cha ac e (Gus on 2014). Following he ounda ional wo k o oday's dominan
u u es s udies pe spec i es, he u u e is unde s ood as a non-exis en (and he e o e
unknowable), open and plu al space (e.g. de Jou enel 1967; Bell and Olick 1989). Ye ,
he idea ha he u u e canno be known does no p e en ep esen a ions o he u u e
om being conside ed as heu is ically ui ul esou ces o lea ning and enac ing
e lec ion in he p esen (Rip and e Kul e 2008; Selin 2014). Conco dan wi h non-
p edic i is app oaches, an icipa ion is unde s ood by AG, RRI, RI, and TA schola s as
a key enabling p ocedu al p inciple o align STI p ocesses, ou comes, and pu poses wi h
socie al in e es s, alues, and expec a ions h oughou he whole co-p oduc ion phases
(Eu opean Commission 2013b, 4). Accommoda ing a ious concep ual b oadenings o
esponsibili y and i s o wa d-looking cha ac e (e.g. Jonas 1984; G o es 2006; Adam
and G o es 2011), esponsibili y is he e unde s ood as ‘ aking ca e o he u u e owa ds
collec i e s ewa dship o science and inno a ion in he p esen ’ (S ilgoe e al. 2013,
1570), and an icipa ion is one o he ools used o p omo e he ongoing, ea ly, and
socially obus p oblema isa ion o he u u es ha a e (no ) a s ake h ough STI
de elopmen s (Rip e al. 1995; Gus on and Sa ewi z 2002; Dupuy and G inbaum 2004).
Agains his con ex , he call o an icipa ion inds i s mos di ec ope a i e ac o
in he execu ion o o esigh exe cises such as socio echnical o echno-mo al scena ios
(Ba ben e al. 2008, 993; Selin 2011; A naldi 2018; Wi hycombe Keele e al. 2019).
1
Long his o ical-concep ual oo s nou ish, suppo , and inspi e AG, RRI, RI, and TA. Fo mo e
on he o igins o hese amewo ks, see: Ba ben e al. (2008) and Ka inen and Gus on (2009)
on AG; on Schombe g (2013) and Owen e al. (2012) on RRI; S ilgoe e al. (2013) and Owen
and Panse a (2019) on RI; and G unwald (2019) and G unwald (2009) on TA.
4
The e lexi e heu is ics o p omo e a be e STI go e nance a ibu ed o o esigh can
ake a ious o ms and be a ge ed a di e en esea ch and inno a ion dimensions and
ields o ac ion. Fo ins ance, i has been s a ed ha o esigh migh se e in he
managemen o isions and expec a ions (Wa nke and Heime iks 2008, 79), o shape
mo e sys emic hinking o ‘socially- obus isk esea ch’ (S ilgoe e al. 2013, 1570), o
o os e ‘p ac ical wisdom’ (Boenink 2013) and ‘emancipa e’ socie al ac o s
(Wi hycombe Keele e al. 2019). These he e ogeneous heu is ics o o esigh only
mi o he di e si y o epis emologies, schools, and modes o o ien a ion ha cons i u e
he plu al iden i y o u u es s udies (Sa da 2010; G unwald 2013).
In he de elopmen o such heu is ics asc ibed o o esigh , he p ocesses
channelled by he me hodology a e o pa amoun impo ance. Howe e , me hodological
a chi ec u es a e su p isingly unde -explo ed and unde -p oblema ised in AG, RRI, RI,
and TA li e a u e. As Lehoux e al. (2020, 1) diagnoses, ‘ he e is li le empi ical
esea ch examining how in p ac ice p ospec i e public delibe a ion p ocesses should be
o ganized o in o m an icipa o y go e nance’. The ques ions o which me hods can
be e shape esponsibilisa ion heu is ics, how and why, ha e no been a he o e on .
Only ecen ly has some concep ual wo k eme ged on he me hodological and
ope a ional aspec s o an icipa ion wi hin he academic communi y (e.g. A naldi 2018;
Lehoux e al. 2020; Macnagh en 2021).
This a icle seeks o ad ance he p oblema isa ion o me hods o enac ing
an icipa o y knowledge and capabili ies aimed a p omo ing socio-poli ically
esponsible STI ac i i ies. To his end, i i s explo es how an icipa ion/ o esigh is
heo e ically unde s ood in AG, RRI, RI, and TA and wha challenges a e associa ed
wi h his dimension. I is shown ha an icipa ion is unde s ood and app oached as
add essing he e ogeneous challenges, each o which equi es speci ic o ms o
5
engagemen wi h ‘ u u es’ (Sec ion 2). The a icle hen analyses 17 p ac ical
an icipa o y in e en ions o AG, RRI, RI, and TA. The ocus o he analysis is on he
me hodological s uc u es o he in e en ions and how hese open up ce ain STI issues
o p oblema isa ion and exclude o he s. In his con ex , wo main limi a ions a e
iden i ied. The i s ela es o he agmen ed ways in which he challenges a ibu ed o
an icipa ion a e add essed (which hinde s he de elopmen o holis ic an icipa o y
heu is ics). The second ela es o he ei ica ion o u u es (which p e en s a deep
p oblema isa ion o STI) (Sec ion 3). Finally, gi en he abo e diagnosis, a en a i e
a chi ec u e o a mul i- o esigh p ocess is p oposed. This p ocedu al me hodology aims
o p omo e a mo e holis ic o in eg al ea men o he challenges ha an icipa ion
add esses and minimise he unc i ical ei ica ion o u u es (Sec ion 4). The a icle ends
wi h a se ies o concluding ema ks (Sec ion 5).
2. An icipa ion as a heu is ic esou ce o os e mo e esponsible esea ch and
inno a ion: concep ualisa ions and p ac ical challenges
The las wo decades ha e been pa icula ly ui ul in he eme gence o go e nance
amewo ks ha a emp o mo e beyond he endency o o mula e ex-an e
esponsibili y solely based on expe -based models o he u u e wi h a p edic i e
ambi ion. No ma i e amewo ks such as AG, RRI, RI, and TA a e clea examples in
his ega d. These p oposals poin o he need o de elop mo e socio-poli ically obus
o adical o ms o esponsibilisa ion o he en a i e go e nance o STI (see Kuhlmann
e al. 2019).
Aside om he no ma i e nuances ha quali y and dis inguish AG, RRI, RI, and
TA amewo ks, hey all sha e hei genealogies and coincide in a leas wo
undamen al aspec s. On he one hand, hey unde s and esponsibili y in e ms o
opening-up o collec i e p oblema isa ion he po en ial coe olu iona y u u e pa hways
6
ha he eme gence o he STI in ques ion may shape (including he delibe a ion a ound
i s pu poses, p ocesses, and ‘posi i e’/‘nega i e’ ou comes) (S ilgoe e al. 2013, 1570;
on Schombe g 2014). The (im)plausibili y and (un)desi abili y o STI socio echnical
and echno-mo al pa hways and hei espec i e socio-poli ical and e hical implica ions
a e subjec o inclusi e delibe a ion. The de elopmen o esponsible STI would equi e
he in ol emen o di e se socie al ac o s, conce ns, and expe ise h oughou he whole
de elopmen p ocess and om i s ea lies s ages (Eu opean Commission 2013a; on
Schombe g 2013). Responsible STI en ails p omo ing mo e socio-poli ically obus and
bo om-up, o ‘ups eam’ ways o shaping socio echnical wo lds h ough STI (i.e. mo e
anspa en and aligned wi h di e en ac o s’ in e es s, alues, and expec a ions).
T adi ionally silenced o ma ginalised oices would be acili a ed o speak ou du ing
he STI co-p oduc ion and go e nance p ac ices, hus sub e ing he cu en hegemonic,
echnoc a ic o ms o mo al di ision o labou (Rip 2016).
On he o he hand, his no ion o esponsibili y inds ope a ional suppo in he
o esigh /an icipa ion dimension in all hese amewo ks. An icipa ion is one o he
ope a ional dimensions ha , in symbiosis o mu ual ein o cemen wi h he o he
dimensions o each amewo k, aims o p omo e his mo e socio-poli ically adical and
e lexi e no ion o esponsibili y. Howe e , despi e his cons i u i e ole gi en o
an icipa ion, he e has no been a obus and sys ema ic concep ualisa ion o wha
an icipa ion en ails o hese amewo ks. As Gus on (2013, 110) s a es, an icipa ion ‘is
pe haps he mos c ucial and p oblema ic dimension o deal wi h’, ye i is also he mos
unde -explo ed dimension: ‘ he e is less concep ual de elopmen a ound an icipa ion,
and e en poo e in ui ions’.
A de ailed look a he ounda ional ex s o hese amewo ks can e eal he
di e en oles a ibu ed o an icipa ion. Table 1 lis s some examples o he di e se
7
engagemen s wi h he u u e ha each no ma i e amewo k es ablishes in i s
ounda ional ex s when add essing hei co esponding dimension o
an icipa ion/ o esigh .
8
Table 1. An icipa ion in AG, RRI, RI, and ecen app oaches o TA. De ini ions, objec i es, and associa ed echniques.
1
No ma i e
amewo k
De ini ions o he amewo k
O he dimensions
assembled wi h
an icipa ion
Objec i es and cha ac e is ics o o esigh /an icipa ion
Techniques and
ac i i ies linked o
an icipa ion
AG
AG ‘comp ises he abili y o a a ie y o lay and
expe s akeholde s, bo h indi idually and
h ough an a ay o eedback mechanisms, o
collec i ely imagine, c i ique, and he eby shape
he issues p esen ed by eme ging echnologies
be o e hey become ei ied in pa icula way’
(Ba ben e al. 2008, 993).
Engagemen
Socio- echnical in eg a ion
Non-p edic i is (does no s i e o ce ain y, o o educe
complexi y).
Public engagemen exe cises aimed a ‘ o help ame deba es
abou he socie al implica ions o new echnologies’
(Ba ben e al. 2008, 986).
‘seek o in eg a e e lec ion wi h e e yday decision making’
(Ba ben e al. 2008, 986).
‘ o b idge he cogni i e gap be ween p esen and u u e’
(Ba ben e al. 2008, 991).
Fu u e scena ios co-
cons uc ed in a
la ge-scale h ough
mul iple wiki si es
Scena io
de elopmen o
isioning
wo kshops
Science ic ion
p o o yping
Responsible
Resea ch and
Inno a ion
(RRI)
RRI ‘allows all socie al ac o s ( esea che s,
ci izens, policy make s, business, hi d sec o
o ganisa ions, e c.) o wo k oge he du ing he
whole esea ch and inno a ion p ocess in o de
o be e align bo h he p ocess and i s ou comes
wi h he alues, needs and expec a ions o
Eu opean socie y’ (Eu opean Commission
2013b, 4)
Eu opean Commission –
Pilla s / Themes: Socie al
engagemen , gende ,
open access/da a, science
educa ion, e hics, and
go e nance
The Eu opean T ea y as
no ma i e ancho poin
‘ he use o o esigh p ojec s can help us o o e come he
o en oo na owly concei ed p oblem de ini ion scien is s
implici ly wo k wi h’ ( on Schombe g 2012, 46)
‘ echnology o esigh can educe he human cos o ial and
e o and make ad an age o a socie al lea ning p ocess o
s akeholde s and echnical inno a o s. (…) This will
ul ima ely lead o p oduc s which a e (mo e) socie al
obus ’ ( on Schombe g 2012, 52)
RRI ‘p ocesses need o become mo e esponsi e and adap i e
o hese g and challenges. This implies, among o he s, he
in oduc ion o b oade o esigh ’ ( on Schombe g 2013,
51)
Technology
o esigh
Impac assessmen
9
No ma i e
amewo k
De ini ions o he amewo k
O he dimensions
assembled wi h
an icipa ion
Objec i es and cha ac e is ics o o esigh /an icipa ion
Techniques and
ac i i ies linked o
an icipa ion
Responsible
Inno a ion (RI)
RI ‘means aking ca e o he u u e h ough
collec i e s ewa dship o science and inno a ion
in he p esen ’ (S ilgoe e al. 2013, 1570)
Inclusi e delibe a ion
Re lexi i y
Responsi eness
* Openness
‘An icipa ion is he e dis inguished om p edic ion in i s
explici ecogni ion o he complexi ies and unce ain ies o
science and socie y’s co-e olu ion’ (S ilgoe e al. 2013,
1571)
‘An icipa ion p omp s esea che s and o ganisa ions o ask
‘wha i …?’ ques ions (…), o conside con ingency, wha
is known, wha is likely, wha is plausible and wha is
possible. An icipa ion in ol es sys ema ic hinking aimed
a inc easing esilience, while e ealing new oppo uni ies
o inno a ion and he shaping o agendas o socially-
obus isk esea ch’ (S ilgoe e al. 2013, 1570)
An icipa o y me hodologies ‘se e as a use ul en y poin o
eflec ion on he pu poses, p omises, and possible impac s
o inno a ion’ (Owen e al. 2013, 38)
Fo esigh
Scena io
de elopmen
Ho izon scanning
Vision assessmen
Socio-li e a y
u u es- hinking
Technology
Assessmen
(TA) ( ecen
app oaches)
‘TA is an in e disciplina y ield o scien i ic
esea ch and ad ice, which aims o p o ide
knowledge and o ien a ion o be e -in o med
and well- e lec ed decisions conce ning new
echnologies and hei consequences’ (G unwald
2019, 1–2)
Inclusion
Complexi y
‘an icipa ion add esses he dimension o ime when acing an
open u u e: enhancing eflexi i y o e ime’ (G unwald
2019, 2)
An icipa ion aims o s imula e ac o s o p oduc i ely imagine
op ions o desi able echnological u u es (Decke e al.
2017)
‘ o esigh in TA is inc easingly o ien ed owa ds p ocesses o
knowledge co-gene a ion be ween di e en ac o g oups’
(So oudeh and Gudowsky 2018, 53)
Fo esigh
Scena io
de elopmen
Vision Assessmen
He meneu ic
Technology
Assessmen
* Dimensions added by Owen and Panse a (2019).
2
16
Table 2. Analysis o in e en i e an icipa o y exe cises.
Sou ce
F amewo k(s)
o e e ence
STI domain o
in e en ion
Me hodology & s uc u e
Types o
engagemen s wi h
u u es
Pa icipan s (as
men ioned)
Challenge(s)
ackled
Opening aspec s
Closu e aspec s
Douglas and
S eme ding
(2014)
RRI/AG
Syn he ic biology
(i) Re iew epo s and a icles ha highligh
po en ially p omising applica ions o SynBio; (ii)
pe o m ELSI analysis o hese applica ions; and (iii)
nego ia e and s eng hen he iden i ied ELSI wi h
pa icipan s and explo e go e nance app oaches o
balance bene i s and isks
Explo a o y-
e oca i e
Policymake s
Analys s
Regula o s
E hics commi ees
Pa ien
o ganisa ions
Academics
(philosophe s,
social scien is s,
SynBio
esea che s)
In e na ional heal h
o ganisa ions
Resea ch unde s
ONGs
I
ELSI ques ions we e kep
open in a lexible way
o allow o new
insigh s om he
pa icipan s
In ol e a wide ange o
socie al ac o s
The o ganise s
acknowledge ha he
ELSI scena ios did no
mee hei expec a ions
Rein o ce SynBio’s p omises ela ed o he
selec ed applica ions
The mos impo an ELSI aspec s discussed
we e iden i ied by he o ganise s o he
in e en ion
The ELSI-SynBio scena ios does no cap u e
he complexi y o socio echnical and
echno-mo al co-e olu ions
Reduces esponsibili y o he ‘e hics
managemen ’ o ELSI conce ns
Mann (2015)
TA
Biodi e si y o se s
and banking
(i) Iden i y ac o s and c ea e scena ios (‘endogenous
u u es’); and (ii) deba e he scena ios
Explo a o y-
e oca i e
Explo a o y-
no ma i e
(delibe a ion on
al eady co-c ea ed
u u es)
Expe s
Public
ep esen a i es
En i onmen al
NGOs
I
II
Opens spaces o
discussion and
e lexi i y abou he
pu poses and p oblem-
ame o biodi e si y
Shows ha con o e sies
a e unde pinned by
di e en wo ld iews
and philosophical and
poli ical o ien a ions
Scena ios a e no c ea ed by he pa icipan s,
bu a e p e-se , which can signi ican ly
ame he deba e
Sadowski and
Gus on
(2016)
AG
Nano echnology
(i) Iden i y ac o s; and (ii) conduc a ques ionnai e on
he u u e o nanoscien is s’ esea ch and po en ial
ou comes
Explo a o y-
no ma i e
Nanoscien is s
I
P o ides insigh in o he
opinions o
nanoscien is s on he
u u e o hei wo k
I migh gene a e
e lexi i y among
nanoscien is s
The e is no collec i e deba e o
p oblema isa ion on nano
Luci e o
(2016)
TA
Immunosigna u es
Nanopil
Techno-e hical scena ios: Explo e po en ial pa hways
o he co-e olu ion o he inno a ion wi h alues,
obliga ions, and esponsibili ies
Techno-mo al igne es: Na a i es ha explo e
po en ial (‘so ’) impac s o echs on o ms o li e, and
mo ali y.
Explo a o y-
e oca i e
Academics
I
Use o scena ios as a
heu is ic esou ce o
acili a e discussion on
he ‘so impac s’ o
echs, and he eby
assess hei associa ed
e hical and desi abili y
and enhance ‘mo al
imagina ion’
Raises c i ical ques ions
abou he socio-
sys emic ac i i ies and
ou comes ha he
scena ios may enable
The explo a ion is limi ed in e ms o (i)
ac o s in ol ed, and (ii) a iables
conside ed (e.g. ‘pa ien -can e ed’ s.
‘doc o -media ed’)
The discussions a e amed by p e-gi en
scena ios
17
Table 2. Analysis o in e en i e an icipa o y exe cises.
Sou ce
F amewo k(s)
o e e ence
STI domain o
in e en ion
Me hodology & s uc u e
Types o
engagemen s wi h
u u es
Pa icipan s (as
men ioned)
Challenge(s)
ackled
Opening aspec s
Closu e aspec s
Gudowsky
and So oudeh
(2017)
RRI/TA
Au onomous li ing
o olde adul s
T ansdisciplina y, isionee ing co-c ea ion p ocess:
(i) Ci izens p oduce isions; (ii) expe s and
s akeholde s elici socie al needs based on ‘(i)’ and
o mula e ecommenda ions o R&D agendas; and
(iii) he ci izens alida e ‘(ii)’ ou pu
Explo a o y-
no ma i e
S a egic
Laypeople
Expe s
S akeholde s
II
Visions ha e socie al
issues a hei cen e:
Poli ics on STI
pu poses comes i s o
p e en he p oblem
om being amed in
pu ely echnical e ms
I assumes an epis emic and mo al di ision o
labou among he ac o s
Ci izens’ isions may be biased by p omises,
expec a ions, and p e iously ci cula ed
isions
I does no p oblema ise scena ios abou he
possible consequences o STI and hei
plausibili y and desi abili y
Bech old e
al. (2017)
TA/RI
Ambien and
Assis i e Techs
( ega ding ageing
issues)
Scena ios
Explo a o y-
e oca i e
Expe s
S akeholde s
Laype sons
I
I displays he common
denomina o s o
di e en publics’
pe spec i es and
desi es (expe s,
s akeholde s,
laype sons)
Explo a ions a e ocused
on how STI will a ec
di e en ac o s, and
no so much on he STI
i sel
I assumes an epis emic and mo al di ision o
labou among he ac o s, and discussions
ake place in pa allel.
No scena ios a e en isaged whe e he e y
exis ence o he STI a hand can be
ques ioned
A naldi
(2018)
TA/RRI
Nano neu al implan
Re ooled Techno-mo al scena ios: (i) Ske ching he
landscape ( echnoscien i ic, mo al and socio-
economic); (ii) gene a ing con o e sies (p os and
cons o he c ea ion); and (iii) closu e and
esponsibili y egimes (who is esponsible,
esponsibili y con igu a ions, means o suppo
esponsibili y)
Explo a o y-
e oca i e (p os
and cons)
S a egic (who
should be
esponsible, unde
which means o
suppo ce ain
esponsibili y
egimes)
Publics, expe s,
s akeholde s
I
In oduces explici
e lec ion on who
should be esponsible,
o wha , and in wha
sense
The p omises o
echnologies a e
c i icised
The deba e is being amed in con o e sies,
and i would be mo e ui ul o ame i in
e ms o modes o co-p oduc ion.
I is unclea o wha ex en he complexi y o
he co-e olu ion be ween echnology and
mo ali y is e lec ed in he scena ios
The c i ique o he p omises o STI is
c i icised in e ms o unde lying ‘ha d’
and ‘so ’ nega i e impac s
Wi hycombe
Keele e al.
(2019)
Sus ainabili y-
o ien ed RRI
Was ewa e Sensing
(WWS)
Scena ios (scena io axes): (i) De ine ocal ques ions
and ime ame; (ii) iden i y pa icipan s; (iii)
explo a ion o analogous echnologies, key ac o s,
and c i ical unce ain ies su ounding he
de elopmen and dissemina ion o he ech; (i )
b ains o m d i ing o ces; ( ) iden i y c i ical
unce ain ies; ( i) selec scena io axes; ( ii) ske ch
scena io s o ylines; ( iii) w i e scena ios na a i es;
(ix) assess scena ios (SWOT analysis); and (x) c ea e
p oposals o ac ion.
Explo a o y-
e oca i e
(explo a ions o
impac s)
S a egic (cos -
bene i analysis in
aking ac ion)
Cen e o
En i onmen al
Secu i y
WWS Resea che s
Legal Schola s
STS and E hics
Schola s
Regula o s
Wa e Manage s
Mili a y
I
Scena ios a e p esen ed as
a means o capabili y-
building
The whole p ocess is
pe o med in e lexi e
eedback wi h
pa icipan s
I aises impo an
ques ions ega ding
who he inno a ion
impac s and bene i s
I includes p oposals o
ac ions
The scena ios do no p o ide al e na i es o
he echnology i sel , a he hey indi ec ly
ei y i s de elopmen (albei imp o ing i )
The a iables acing he ou inal scena ios
a e public/p i a e (owne ship) and
indi idual/communi y (wha is sensed)
(i.e. mul i a ia e scena ios could ha e
been used)
18
Table 2. Analysis o in e en i e an icipa o y exe cises.
Sou ce
F amewo k(s)
o e e ence
STI domain o
in e en ion
Me hodology & s uc u e
Types o
engagemen s wi h
u u es
Pa icipan s (as
men ioned)
Challenge(s)
ackled
Opening aspec s
Closu e aspec s
S eme ding e
al. (2019)
RI/TA
Syn he ic biology
Applica ion scena ios: (i) De ine he na u e o he
p oblem and he ole o SynBio; (ii) consul use s
and s akeholde s abou needs and ision; (iii) hink
abou a business case; (i ) iden i y issues o isk and
egula ion; ( ) conside design choices and
equi emen s in his con ex ; and ( i) combine hese
elemen s in an un olding s o yline abou u u e
SynBio
Techno-mo al scena ios: (i) conside ‘so impac s’ o
he applica ion scena io; (ii) iden i y mo ally
p oblema ic si ua ions; (iii) imagine how people
migh be a ec ed and espond; and (i ) c ea e a sho
s o y as igne e
Explo a o y-
e oca i e
Explo a o y-
no ma i e
S a egic
S uden s
Socie al
s akeholde s
Resea che s in
SynBio
II
I
The in e en ion was
ex ended in ime (>3
yea s)
The a en ion o he
p omo ion o
an icipa o y
capabili ies in he ea ly
s ages o he scien i ic
ca ee
Highligh s conside a ion
o socie al needs and
de ini ion o pu pose
h ough s akeholde
in ol emen
Conside s bo h ‘so ’ and
‘ha d’ impac s
I assumes an epis emic and mo al di ision o
labou among he ac o s: mos o he wo k
and isioning o he u u e is done by he
s uden eam (in e ac ion wi h
s akeholde s is limi ed)
SynBio’s isions a e no c i icised: An
enligh ened iew o science is p omo ed,
in which science is p esen ed as a p oblem
sol e
Emphasis on p o iding solu ions o social
p oblems is add essed h ough an
en ep eneu ial app oach
Schneide e
al. (2021)
TA
3-D P in ing
T ans o ma i e Vision Assessmen : (i) Cu en
analysis (quali a i e social science me hods); (ii)
dialogue (wo kshops); and (iii) modula ion
(pa icipa o y scena ios)
C i ical-he meneu ic
(Analysis and
dialogue)
Explo a o y-
e oca i e
(Building
socio echnical
scena ios)
Explo a o y-
no ma i e
(Building mo e
sus ainable
isions)
Social scien is s
S akeholde s
STEM esea che s
III
II
I
I begins wi h a c i ical
app oach ha seeks o
p oblema ise exis ing
isions
The modula ion and
modula ion o isions
is based on bo h
no ma i e and
desc ip i e
explo a ions
I assumes an epis emic and mo al di ision o
labou among he ac o s: Scien is s c ea e
he scena ios, and scien is s and
s akeholde s discuss hem
The a iables acing he ou scena ios a e
limi ed o ‘inclusi i y/exclusion’ and
‘sus ainabili y/unsus ainabili y’ (i.e.
mul i a ia e scena ios could ha e been
used)
Scena ios whe e he STI a hand does no
exis a e no en isaged
Repo and
Ma schoss
(2019)
RRI
S a egic R&D
Policies
Wo kshops: (i) Resea che s ask ci izens o a icula e
isions; (ii) expe s o mula e esea ch p io i ies
based on hose isions; and (iii) ci izens asses he
connec ions be ween he p io i ies and hei isions
Explo a o y-
no ma i e
S a egic
Expe s
Ci izens
II
Visions ha e socie al
issues a hei cen e:
Poli ics on STI
pu poses comes i s o
p e en he p oblem
om being amed in
pu ely echnical e ms
I assumes an epis emic and mo al di ision o
labou among he ac o s
Ci izens’ isions may be biased by p omises,
expec a ions, and p e iously ci cula ed
isions
I does no p oblema ise scena ios abou he
possible consequences o he STI and hei
plausibili y and desi abili y
Lehoux e al.
(2020)
AG/RRI
Implan able ca diac
‘ ec i ie ’
(gene ically a -
isk adul s)
Techno-mo al scena ios: (i) C ea ion o ideos
depic ing how he inno a ion wo ks, he u u e
con ex o i s use, and wo u u e scena ios; (ii)
pe o m ou ace- o- ace delibe a i e wo kshops; and
(iii) conduc an online o um o scena ios discussion
Explo a o y-
e oca i e
(explo a ions o
e hical ensions)
38 indi iduals
(wo kshops)
57 indi iduals
( o ums)
I
In ol es pa icipan s o
all ages.
P omo es he exe cise o
mo al imagina ion as a
long- e m p e equisi e
o he p omo ion o
RRI.
E en hough he s udy
was Explo a o y-
e oca i e in na u e,
some pa icipan s
exp essed conce ns
abou scena ios’
unde lying p omises
The scena ios a e c ea ed and discussed by
he o ganise s (i.e. no opened up o he
co-nego ia ion be ween pa icipan s)
The eme gence o c i ique o isions was
dependen on he con ingen dynamics o
he exe cise, no me hodologically
p omo ed
I is no cla i ied how he in e en ion
modelled he dynamics o STI co-
p oduc ion
19
Table 2. Analysis o in e en i e an icipa o y exe cises.
Sou ce
F amewo k(s)
o e e ence
STI domain o
in e en ion
Me hodology & s uc u e
Types o
engagemen s wi h
u u es
Pa icipan s (as
men ioned)
Challenge(s)
ackled
Opening aspec s
Closu e aspec s
Ke a (2020)
AG/RRI
Blockchain and
decen alised
ledge
echnologies
Simula ion game: (i) Imme si e expe ience in a
ic ional ‘sma illage’; (ii) delibe a i e ole-play and
conclusions o conce ns; (iii) de elop and p o o ype
based on ‘(ii)’
Explo a o y-
e oca i e
S a egic
Ci izens
I
Enac s an icipa o y
capabili ies h ough
in e ac i e exe cises in
a wide ange o issues
(design p o o yping,
policy, egula ion
issues)
Suppo s con ex ual
aming
Con empla es he
mo a o ium o he
echnology as an
op ion
I is unclea o wha ex en and how hese
capabili ies we e ans e ed o STI
p ac ice
Pa icipan s a e ‘con on ed’ wi h scena ios,
which ame he simula ion game
111
20
The esul s p esen ed in Table 2 show he he e ogenei y o app oaches o an icipa ion in
112
p ac ice and allow se e al conclusions o be d awn. Due o space cons ain s, only he
113
mos ele an esul s a e highligh ed below. These esul s will in o m he alue o he
114
me hodological s uc u e o he mul i- o esigh p ocess desc ibed in he ollowing
115
sec ion.
116
The mos ele an and gene al conclusion ha can be d awn om he abo e
117
analysis is he exis ence o a agmen a ion when i comes o add essing he a ious
118
challenges ha an icipa ion poses (i.e. ‘I.’, ‘II.’, and ‘III.’)—an excep ion is he
119
T ans o ma i e Vision Assessmen me hod ecen ly p oposed by Schneide e al. (2021).
120
In o he wo ds, he da a sugges ha he an icipa o y exe cises o AG, RRI, RRI, and
121
TA a e no comp ehensi e enough when i comes o p oblema ising he di e en
122
dimensions o STIs: hei ou comes (‘I.’), hei pu poses and p ocesses (‘II.’) and hei
123
associa ed na a i es, isions, p omises, and expec a ions (‘III.’). The analysis hus
124
shows ha STI is p oblema ised (p omo ing dynamics o openness), ye his
125
p oblema isa ion is simul aneously ypically es ic ed o di e en domains o STIs
126
(p omo ing dynamics o closu e).
2
127
The analysis shows, o example, ha he e is a s ong endency o unde s and
128
an icipa ion in e ms o explo ing impac s, be hey echnical, socio echnical, o echno-
129
mo al. This is e lec ed in he widesp ead use o ools such as socio echnical and
130
echno-mo al scena ios in he implemen a ion o an icipa ion. The challenge ha AG,
131
RRI, RI, and TA an icipa o y exe cises end o add ess in p ac ice—conside ing a ious
132
2
The d i e s cons i u ing he agmen a ion in he p oblema isa ion o he dimensions o STIs a e
he e ogeneous. While explo ing he causes o his agmen a ion would be a necessa y and
in e es ing ask, his a icle is limi ed o a en a i e diagnosis o i s exis ence. Ul ima ely, he
aim is o encou age he design and adop ion o an icipa o y p ocesses ha a e no a p io i
limi ed o p oblema ising a pa icula subse o he issues aised by STIs. All his is done in
awa eness ha no me hod is a panacea. Ra he , i is a ma e o p oblema ising which
“a o dances o c i ique” in e ening p ocesses enac .
21
g ada ions o inclusi i y, esponsi i y, and e lexi i y—is ‘I.’. This can be in e p e ed in
133
he ligh o he p ominence o he p ecau iona y consequen ialis adi ion. This adi ion
134
has ypically unde s ood esponsibili y in e ms o he explo a ion o u u e impac s in
135
he se ice o (i) he minimisa ion (o a oidance) o hose impac s ha a e conside ed
136
nega i e, and (ii) he maximisa ion o hose impac s ha a e conside ed posi i e. Once
137
he po en ial impac ‘X’ has been iden i ied and deemed nega i e, being esponsible has
138
ypically been concei ed as he minimisa ion o a oidance o ‘X’. O cou se, he
139
ques ion o on wha and whose g ounds some hing is judged o be ‘posi i e’/‘nega i e’
140
is no i ial and should be on he able (which is o en no he case in hese exe cises).
141
This endency o link an icipa ion o he p oblema isa ion o STI impac s (and
142
especially nega i e ones) is pa icula ly p oblema ic on accoun o he agmen a ion
143
p e iously no ed. No only is an icipa ion o en linked o he p oblema isa ion o
144
impac s, bu i is usually educed o his. The downside is no so much ha an icipa ion
145
is p edominan ly ela ed o he challenge o p oblema ising ou comes (i.e. ‘I.’), bu ha
146
an icipa ion is p edominan ly ac i a ed only in ela ion o his challenge. This is highly
147
de imen al o a comp ehensi e ope a ionalisa ion o AG, RRI, RI, o TA h ough
148
o esigh exe cises, which should include no only he p oblema isa ion o ou comes,
149
bu also he p oblema isa ion o STI pu poses, p ocesses, and
150
isions/expec a ions/p omises.
151
Indeed, ano he cen al challenge o AG, RRI, RI, and TA is o open up he
152
pu poses o which STI is o ien ed (i.e. ‘II.’). While acknowledging he con ingency,
153
impossibili y o con ol, and non-linea na u e o STI, he goal is o p oblema ise in eal
154
ime he na u e o he socio-poli ical and echno-mo al wo lds we mould h ough STI
155
p ac ices. While his is he case in heo y, analysis shows ha such p oblema isa ion o
156
22
he STI ends does no always occu in p ac ice and ha when i does occu , his
157
p oblema isa ion has a ious me hodological-ope a ional limi a ions.
158
In ac , only i e sou ces we e iden i ied ha explici ly p oblema ise he socio-
159
poli ical pu poses o STI. Howe e , hese i e wo ks p esen a a ie y o
160
me hodological challenges. Fo example, Mann (2015) and S eme ding e al. (2019)
161
p oblema ise he pu poses, bu his p oblema isa ion occu s wi hin he ame p e iously
162
es ablished by p ojec ions abou he po en ial me i s and pi alls o he STI in ques ion
163
( he o me in e ms o u u e impac s, he la e in e ms o po en ial niches whe e STI
164
could become aluable o p o i able). This means ha he p oblema isa ion o he
165
pu poses is no so much abou he socio-poli ical signi icance o he STI a hand, bu
166
a he he modali ies unde which he STI mus be p omo ed in o de no o be socio-
167
poli ically (so) p oblema ic in he u u e. In his way, he exe cises sub ly ei y he
168
needs and goals o he STIs unde s udy. This p oblem o ei ica ion could be sol ed by
169
s a ing he p ocess wi h an explo a o y-no ma i e exe cise, as is he case wi h Repo
170
and Ma schoss (2019)’s exe cise. Howe e , his exe cise is by no means unp oblema ic
171
ei he . I s main p oblem is ha i does no conside ha ci izens’ isions can be dis o ed
172
by p omises and isions, and he e o e c i ically ei y he STI lines ha ep esen hose
173
isions. Fo his e y eason, Schneide e al. (2021) sugges ha he co e o he
174
in e en ion should begin wi h a c i ical-he meneu ic engagemen wi h pa icipan s’
175
an icipa o y assump ions: The aim is o coun e ac he pe o ma i e powe ha some
176
isions migh ha e la e in he in e en ion when goals and implica ions a e explo ed
177
and e lec ed upon.
178
The wo k o Schneide e al. (2021) is indeed he only one o he analysed
179
sou ces ha in eg a es he c i ical-he meneu ic app oach and hus he only one ha
180
add esses he ‘III.’ challenge o AG, RRI, RI, and TA. Mo eo e , he wo k o Schneide
181
23
e al. (2021) is he only one ha add esses he h ee challenges o AG, RRI, RI, and TA.
182
Howe e , he way he wo k is s uc u ed has some sho comings, he mos impo an
183
being ha he possibili y o he non-exis ence o 3D p in ing is no p esen ed in any
184
scena io, o ha 3D p in ing has been p esen ed as a dis up i e elemen in all scena ios
185
( hus ul ima ely ep oducing he isions ha 3D p in ing campaigne s a e in e es ed in).
186
The deba e should no longe be me hodologically closed, so ha a mo a o ium could be
187
concei able as a plausible scena io. Mo eo e , as wi h many o he exe cises, he e is
188
li le e idence on how he an icipa o y conside a ions and enabled knowledge we e la e
189
in eg a ed in o STI p ac ice.
190
As p e iously men ioned, he assessmen o he an icipa o y dimension canno
191
be sepa a ed om o he dimensions ha pe mea e AG, RI, RRI, and TA, such as
192
e lexi i y, inclusion, o esponsi eness. Rega ding e lexi i y, i has al eady been
193
sugges ed ha he di e en o ms o enabling an icipa ion exe di e en deg ees o
194
e lexi i y on STI. In e ms o inclusi i y, he p esence o closu e mechanisms in
195
ela ion o he ac o s coming in o play and hei (some imes oo passi e) ole in he
196
p ocesses o co-c ea ing and assessing scena ios is wo h no ing. Many o hese
197
exe cises emain unde aken wi hin he amewo k o an epis emic, poli ical, and mo al
198
di ision o labou (e.g. he e is e y o en a dema ca ion be ween he g oup o ac o s
199
who co-cons uc he scena ios and he g oup ha co-assesses hem). Many o he
200
scena ios a e c ea ed by desk esea ch and hen p esen ed o a ious pa icipan s o
201
c i ique and eedback; pa icipan s who a e in u n e e ed o using a a ie y o labels,
202
each ha ing di e en seman ic conno a ions. These mechanisms o sub le closu e
203
con as wi h exe cises whe ein all ac o s collec i ely co-p oduce he e y scena ios ha
204
will la e be he subjec o collec i e c i ique and a sou ce o e lec ion. These mo e
205
open exe cises, being a mino i y, a e expec ed o allow o a mo e inclusi e and
206
24
esponsi e p ocess in e ms o he unde lying assump ions o be conside ed, hus
207
opening-up he al e na i es o be conside ed. The indings o he analysis sugges ha
208
mo e a en ion needs o be gi en o (i) he c i e ia unde lying he selec ion o ac o s, (ii)
209
he ways in which hese ac o s a e e e ed o and he biases o cons ain s associa ed
210
wi h hem ( hey a e he e ogeneously p esen ed unde labels such as ‘s akeholde s’, ‘lay
211
people’, ‘public’, ‘ci izens’, ‘expe s’, e c.), and (iii) he o ms o pa icipa ion ha a e
212
ac ually acili a ed in o de o s eng hen hei oices and allow o a mo e obus socio-
213
poli ical c i ique o STI. As I win e al. (2013) a gue, c i ique should be ‘a key
214
componen ’ o public engagemen o imp o e he quali y o knowledge co-p oduc ion
215
p ocesses. Finally, ega ding esponsi eness, in mos cases he e is no demons a ion o
216
how hese ac ions ha e subsequen ly impac ed on STI sys ems and how public conce ns
217
ha e been e lec ed in subsequen STI p ac ices and de elopmen s. In his sense, he e is
218
a need o mo e in-dep h analysis and moni o ing o he ways in which hese exe cises
219
ans o m STI p ac ices.
220
Many o he abo e limi a ions a e o cou se a ibu able o ime and socio-ma e ial
221
cons ain s (which a e una oidable). Howe e , many o he limi a ions a e due o
222
me hodological c i e ia (which a e ce ainly a oidable o minimisable). The discussion
223
abo e is no in ended o highligh hings we migh be doing w ong, bu a he o sugges
224
wha we could be doing be e . The emphasis on closu e in he abo e c i ical e iew
225
should no blind us o he bene i s exp essed in he exe cises ci ed. These undoub edly
226
p omo e mo e obus o ms o STI co-p oduc ion han he mains eam ones. Howe e , i
227
he ul ima e ambi ion is o open up STI modes o mo e socio-poli ically obus o ms o
228
co-p oduc ion, i is wo h discussing how he s uc u es ha unde pin ou in e en i e
229
me hods na ow he spaces o discussion and p oblema isa ion.
230
25
4. A comp ehensi e me hodological p oposal o ope a ionalise an icipa ion
231
This sec ion p oposes a en a i e s uc u e o a (mul i-) o esigh p ocess o suppo he
232
ope a ionalisa ion o AG, RRI, RI, and TA. This p ocedu al an icipa o y s uc u e is
233
p esen ed as ‘a me hodology o inqui y-in-in e ac ion, which inc eases e lexi i y o he
234
[STI] de elopmen s’ (Rip and Robinson 2013, 37). The en a i e s uc u e o he mul i-
235
o esigh exe cise seeks o minimise he wo main limi a ions iden i ied abo e: (i) he
236
agmen a ion o o esigh exe cises in add essing he main challenges o AG, RI, RRI,
237
and TA, and (ii) he p oblem o ei ying u u es.
238
While he p oblem o agmen a ion is add essed h ough a sys ema ic
239
p oblema isa ion o he di e se STI domains (pu poses, p ocesses, and ou comes), he
240
p oblem o he ei ica ion o u u es is add essed h ough he in eg a ion o a c i ical-
241
he meneu ic app oach o u u e na a i es and ep esen a ions du ing he in e en ion.
242
Since some deg ee o ei ica ion is inescapable, he enemy is no ei ica ion pe se, bu
243
a he unc i ical ei ica ion. The aim is o in oduce ‘ups eam’ e lexi i y in STI
244
p ac ices h ough o esigh so ha he socio echnical u u es ha a e in cons an co-
245
p oduc ion a e an icipa o ily shaped in he mos anspa en , inclusi e, and e lec i e
246
way possible (Jasano 2020).
247
I should be no ed ha he ac ha he me hodology p oposed he e aims o be
248
less ulne able o hese wo p oblems does no mean nai ely supposing ha i will no
249
be subjec o he limi a ions and con ingencies inhe en in any in e en i e
250
ope a ionalisa ion. The exe cise does no claim o be a solu ion o panacea. Ins ead, i is
251
a en a i e ideal- ypical p oposal ha can be u he c i iqued and elabo a ed.
252
Ul ima ely, i aims o p omo e in e en ion mechanisms ha , om hei concep ion, a e
253
mo e sensi i e o he ei ica ion o u u es and a end o he poli ics o an icipa ion in
254
which hey a e emb oiled, and which a e p opaga ed h ough hem.
255
32
Subphase
2.III
‘I.’: To explo e he di e en impac s
ha migh coe ol e wi h he
de elopmen o he STI
Fu u e: Opening-up he ange
o issues and conce ns
conside ed ega ding he STI
a s ake
Explo a o y: Opening-
up he po en ial
impac s
Subphase
2.IV
‘II.’: To p oblema ise he p ocesses
and o ien a ions o he STI
Fu u e: D aw up guidelines
o cu en ac ions o p omo e
he ealisa ion o he desi able
u u es al eady p oblema ised
S a egic: Ou lining
guiding ac ions
365
Subphase 2.I – Se ing he s age o plausibili y and desi abili y nego ia ions
366
The i s subphase aims o p epa e ce ain g ounds o he subsequen nego ia ion o he
367
plausibili y and desi abili y o u u es. These bases a e in ended o be es ablished
368
h ough he gene a ion o e lexi e dynamics ha add ess bo h pas and p esen
369
empo ali y, as well as he c i ique o he u u es-in- he-p esen ha ma e ialise in
370
isions, expec a ions, and socio echnical imagina ies.
371
As De byshi e and W igh (2017) a gue, many scena io-building exe cises
372
cu en ly de o e ‘li le a en ion o he conside a ion o ei he he p esen s a e o how i
373
has come o be’, e en hough he ea men o he pas and p esen can gene a e many
374
heu is ics ha can be pa icula ly aluable o STI esponsibilisa ion. Gi en ha he
375
lenses o assump ions h ough which we look a he pas and p esen a e mul i-laye ed
376
(di e en ac o s could unde line di e en dimensions o he p esen and he pas ), and
377
many o he disc epancies abou he u u e will be d i en by di e gences o he p esen
378
and pas , i is necessa y o add ess and co-nego ia e he plausibili y o hese om he
379
ou se .
380
The aim o os e ing dynamics o e lec ion on he cu en s a e is no so much
381
in ended o es ablish a common g ound (i.e. o impose a uni o m o monoli hic s a e o
382
he a ), bu a he o conside he di e en pe spec i es on he p esen om which
383
ac o s pe cei e and in e p e eali y; bo h in ela ion o he socio echnical sys em in
384
which he in e en ion akes place, and mo e speci ically in ela ion o he STI a s ake.
385
Indeed, i has been ecognised in he li e a u e ha he plausibilisa ion o o he u u es
386
33
also depends on he plausibilisa ion and possibili ies o e aming he p esen s (U ueña
387
2019; Fische and Dannenbe g 2021).
388
I migh also be pa icula ly ui ul o p oblema ise how we ela e he pas o he
389
p esen o he STI in ques ion, as well as he pas o i s u u e. Schwa z-Plaschg (2018a,
390
153), o example, has poin ed ou how analogies om he pas (i.e. compa isons o he
391
pas and he p esen ) a e used ‘ o make a gumen s and en o ce amings’. She has also
392
highligh ed how analogical imagina ion and enhanced analogical sensibili y can help
393
p omo e RRI (Schwa z-Plaschg 2018b). The case o nano echnology is a clea example
394
o a non-p esen is ield whe e he use o bo h he pas s and u u es has helped o
395
mobilise he imagina ions and opinions o di e en publics ( a ou able o un a ou able
396
o legi imise nano-de elopmen ) (Mody 2004; Selin 2006; Schwa z-Plaschg 2018b).
397
Despi e he alue o pas knowledge o STI esponsibilisa ion, he e a e calls o
398
inc ease bo h he use o his knowledge and i s p oblema isa ion (Zimme -Me kle and
399
Fleische 2017). The inclusion o pas empo ali y in ended he e also unde lines his.
400
The case o he use and mobilisa ion o analogies illus a es ha he colonisa ion
401
o he spaces o plausibili y and desi abili y is no ca ied ou by u u e ep esen a ions
402
alone. Howe e , his does no mean ha he la e a e excluded. The inclusion o he
403
p oblema isa ion o u u es-in- he-p esen is in ended o p e en he pe o ma i e powe
404
o p omises, expec a ions, and socio echnical imagina ies om limi ing he la e
405
explo a ions o he mul i- o esigh p ocess. As G o es (2013, 186) no es, ‘ echnological
406
u u e imagina ies may help o p e en sc u iny o assump ions abou inno a ion
407
pa hways and o exclude al e na i e isions o he u u e om discussion, hus making
408
p og ess on he p ocedu al elemen s o RRI mo e di icul ’. The p oposed
409
p oblema isa ion o hese a e ac s om he ou se aims o enable a basic o m o
410
‘ u u es li e acies’ (Mille and Sand o d 2019) ha neu alises as much as possible hei
411
34
powe o ei y ce ain possibili ies and hus impede he opening-up o al e na i es o be
412
conside ed in la e subphases. While i would be naï e o assume ha hese a e ac s
413
will no longe ha e powe in subsequen phases, i is possible o asse ha he
414
necessa y and possible mechanisms ha e been c ea ed o ensu e ha hei impac is
415
lessened as much as possible.
416
417
418
In conclusion, his i s subphase ac i a es he nego ia ion o plausibili y as an epis emic
419
p ocess in he se ice o c i ically opening-up he pas , p esen , and u u es-in- he-
420
p esen ha de ac o colonise and modula e he way we imagine, explo e, and con on
421
eali y. This i s subphase is ul ima ely p oposed as a social lea ning exe cise aimed a
422
opening/acqui ing capaci ies o opening-up he ep esen a i e a e ac s ha , exploi ing
423
empo ali y in each his o ical momen , cons ain ou explo a ions and isions o he
424
u u e, he eby closing-down he spaces o possibili y deemed desi able and plausible.
425
The pu pose is o ope a ionalise he demand o begin e e y explo a ion by such c i ical
426
assessmen s (G in and G unwald 2000; No dmann 2014), as well as o o e a esponse
427
o calls o he in oduc ion and p omo ion o he meneu ic an icipa ion ( an de Bu g
428
2014; G unwald 2020).
429
430
Subphase 2.II – Gi ing ou STI p ac ices a desi able and plausible di ec ion
431
In con as o explo a o y o esigh exe cises ha s a om ‘p oduc scenes’ and
432
p oblema ise hei (un)desi abili y and (im)plausibili y la e , his second subphase o he
433
mul i- o esigh exe cise aims o p oblema ise up on he p oblems, challenges, o
434
pu poses wi h which we align he STI. Ul ima ely, he aim is o discuss he
435
socio echnical and echno-mo al wo lds o which he STI is expec ed o con ibu e and
436
35
he ways in which i can/could con ibu e o hem. This way o s uc u ing he deba e
437
p io i ises discussion o he plausibili y and desi abili y o he p oblem- aming and
438
policy pu poses unde pinning he STI in ques ion o e explo a ion o i s po en ial
439
impac s. The aim is o add ess he p oblem al eady explici ly iden i ied and c i icised by
440
on Schombe g (2012, 7):
441
442
[F]o esigh p ojec s could bene i om a p io analysis o po en ial ela ionships be ween
443
ypes o plausible echnological pa hways and pa icula (social) p oblem-de ini ions, a he
444
han s a ing wi h ‘naï e p oduc scenes,’ (…) he eby me hodologically igno ing he
445
unde lying p oblem de ini ions.
446
447
Suppose we co-design an an icipa o y p ocess. I s i s exe cise consis s o co-p ojec ing
448
and nego ia ing he (im)plausibili y and (un)desi abili y o socio echnical scena ios ha
449
could a ise om s a osphe ic sulpha e injec ion as a measu e in he ace o clima e
450
change. These scena ios will depic di e se nega i e and posi i e con igu a ions ha he
451
a ious pa icipan s a e able o en ision and jus i y. Howe e , once we en e he deba e
452
on he (im)plausibili y and (un)desi abili y o hese scena ios, we would be doing so no
453
only a he expense o aking he echnology i sel as plausible bu also indi ec ly
454
accep ing a way o dealing wi h he clima e change p oblem ha can and should be
455
explici ly p oblema ised. Fo example, we would be assuming he Enligh enmen
456
pa adigm o echnological solu ionism, whe e he solu ion is posi ed as echnical a he
457
han socio echnical and o ganisa ional. The ‘p oduc scene’ en ames a de ini ion o he
458
p oblem and i s co esponding esolu ion. The p oblem is clima e change, and i is
459
en amed as a echnical p oblem— hus wi h i s co esponding echnical solu ion. The
460
solu ion is o sol e he e ec s o clima e change by minimising he e ec s caused by
461
ou cu en o ms o indus ial p oduc ion. The ‘p oduc scene’ p esen s a solu ion o
462
one o ou G and Challenges, bu i ames hose solu ions so ha i shields he causes
463
36
o he p oblem om p oblema isa ion, ocusing only on coun e ac ing he e ec s. I
464
si ua es us in a scena io whe e he aim is o sol e he e ec s o clima e change caused
465
by ou cu en sys ems, bu wi hou p omo ing a undamen al deba e on he necessi y
466
and ele ance o changing ou cu en socio echnical sys ems and hei p oduc i e
467
cons ella ions. This way o aming he p oblem sub ly p omo es he ei ica ion o
468
pe pe ua ion o he same o ganisa ional scheme ha causes he p oblem by no
469
p omo ing he concep ion o al e na i e socio-economic and echno-indus ial o ms o
470
o ganisa ion ha would add ess o minimise he p oblem a i s oo .
471
The absence o an explici opening-up mechanism o unpack he po en ial
472
ela ionships be ween ypes o plausible STI pa hways and pa icula p oblem
473
de ini ions would en ail lea ing i o chance whe he hese ela ionships a e main ained
474
o ans o med. The aim o in e en i e an icipa o y exe cises is no o lea e hese
475
issues o chance, bu o p omo e e lexi i y as deeply as possible (Gus on 2014). The
476
aim o subphase 2.II should he e o e be o explici ly de- and econs uc he p oblem
477
de ini ions and he STI pu poses hese embody. This includes, o example, ques ioning
478
he ex en o which hese p oblem de ini ions and STI pu poses co espond o he
479
wishes, expec a ions, and in e es s o he social ac o s in ol ed. The p oposed c i ique
480
should be no only decons uc i e bu also cons uc i e. The exe cise has o emain
481
open o he sugges ion o al e na i es. I he e a e oices ha conside he STI pu poses
482
and issues o be ‘implausible’ and/o ‘undesi able’, hese oices should sugges
483
‘plausible’ and ‘desi able’ ones as a coun e poin .
484
This collec i e p oblema isa ion o he u u es conside ed ‘(un)desi able’ and
485
hei g ounds/ ames can ob iously lead o he ac i a ion o p oblema isa ion p ocesses
486
ha will equi e calling on o e isi ing he esul s o he p e ious subphase (e.g. aking
487
in o accoun he ex en o which na a i es and meanings close he pu poses).
488
37
Fu he mo e, his p oblema isa ion may also equi e ac i a ing socio-sys emic p ocesses
489
ha would co espond o he nex subphase (e.g. conduc ing isk explo a ions o ei he
490
he socio- echnical p ojec in ques ion o o hose al e na i es conside ed mos
491
desi able). I is he e o e expec able ha i e a i e and back and o h p ocesses will exis
492
be ween hese subphases. The a ionale o placing his subphase in his second posi ion
493
wi hin he s uc u e is o p e en p oblem de ini ions om unc i ically p e-se ing
494
possibili y spaces ou side o which al e na i es canno be en isaged.
495
496
Subphase 2.III – En iching ou no ma i e u u es
497
Once he u u es deemed desi able ha e been explo ed, i is impo an o en ich hem
498
wi h e lec ions on he possible nega i e/posi i e ou comes ha migh a ise bo h in he
499
p ocess o pu suing hese u u es and in he hypo he ical si ua ion in which hese
500
become a eali y ( o some deg ee).
501
The eason o such hypo he ical-p ojec i e explo a ions lies in he need o
502
p oblema ise ha he pu sui o a desi able u u e is nei he neu al no ee om
503
ensions o imbalances. As Adam and G o es (2007, 2011) obse e, any o m o u u e-
504
making is a o m o u u e- aking, and e en he u u e(s) nego ia ed as ‘desi able’ would
505
no be ee o depic ing and emb acing powe asymme ies. This p ocess aims p ecisely
506
o explo e he socio echnical and echno-mo al co-e olu ions ha migh occu .
507
Ques ions a ound (i) wha e ec s he e migh be (e.g. e ec s on echno-mo al o
508
socio echnical o de s) and (ii) wha he dis ibu ion o hese e ec s is (e.g. o whom
509
hey a e seen as posi i e o nega i e and unde wha condi ions) would be he subjec o
510
social examina ion and en ichmen . This phase is hus ul ima ely abou en iching he
511
no ma i e u u es co-nego ia ed in subphase 2.II h ough e lexi i y.
512
38
A his poin , one migh ask whe he he exe cise does no ei y he no ma i e
513
u u e(s) deal wi h in subphase 2.II. The answe is ha a ce ain deg ee o ei ica ion is
514
una oidable. I any kind o ac ion is o be an icipa o ily in o med, i is necessa y o
515
close he space o possibili ies unde conside a ion. In his sense, he p oblem he e is
516
no so much ei ica ion pe se, bu unc i ical ei ica ion. In o he wo ds, he p oblem is
517
he ei ica ions p oduced on he basis o u u es ha a e li le discussed and nego ia ed,
518
and hus on u u es wi h li le socio-epis emic and socio-poli ical legi imacy. The mul i-
519
o esigh p ocess he e o e aims o minimise his p oblem by discussing he
520
consequences wi hin u u es ha ha e been p e iously p oblema ised.
521
The u u es o subphase 2.II ha se he ame o his subphase 2.III, howe e ,
522
mus be kep open o e-examina ion. The esul s o subphase 2.III may lead o a
523
econside a ion o he isions o desi able u u es hemsel es by eac i a ing he
524
p e ious subphase.
525
526
Subphase 2.IV – Co-c ea ing ac ion plans
527
The ou h and inal subphase has he di icul ask o ansla ing all he heu is ics
528
coming om he p e ious opening-up p ocesses in o p ac ical guidance o he STI
529
exe cises. Ul ima ely, as is common in s a egic and isionee ing exe cises, he aim is o
530
c ea e an execu ion plan. This essen ially consis s o iden i ying how, gi en he
531
esou ces a ailable and he diagnosis o he cu en si ua ion p e iously es ablished in
532
subphase 2.I, ac ions can be igge ed o p omo e he eme gence o he nego ia ed
533
plausible and desi ed u u e(s).
534
The e a e a leas wo aspec s o his ex-du e subphase ha a e impo an o
535
commen on. The i s e e s o he need o keep he implemen a ion plan unde
536
con inuous e iew, as an open plan. This is impo an o be able o adap i o he
537
39
con ingencies ha eme ge du ing he p ocess. Mo eo e , i is also impo an o insis
538
du ing he media ion p ocess ha p ocesses and plans a e allible in na u e, and hei
539
signi icance is me ely heu is ic-o ien a ional. E en when he ou lined plan is accu a ely
540
ollowed, i is impo an o emphasise ha he desi able u u e may no be achie ed
541
(al hough ollowing he ins uc ions will mo e likely app oxima e his han o he wise).
542
Ul ima ely, hese o ms o media ion a e impo an o p e en he mul i- o esigh
543
exe cise om alling in o he illusion o looking a he u u e as a space ha can be he
544
a ge o ou design. The u u e, in his sense, mus be main ained h oughou he
545
p ocess as a space ha is in insically unce ain, complex, con ingen , and ela i ely
546
open.
547
The esul s o subphase 2.IV may lead o e isions o he u u es o isions
548
conside ed plausible and desi able, o o he speci ic issues conside ed in hese. As a
549
esul , i may be possible o e u n o ea lie s ages o he mul i- o esigh p ocess (e.g.
550
e isi ing he indings o subphases 2.II and/o 2.III).
551
Phase 3: Fo esigh dissemina ion and assessmen
552
The hi d phase includes all he ac i i ies ha ake place a e he comple ion o he
553
mul i- o esigh exe cise. These ex-pos ac i i ies ocus mainly—bu no only—on (i) he
554
dissemina ion o he esul s and (ii) he sys ema ic and mainly quali a i e (al hough i
555
may be complemen ed by quan i a i e da a) moni o ing and e alua ion o he o esigh
556
p ocesses, ou comes, and pu poses (Table 4). The sys ema ic and ex-pos na u e is
557
p ecisely wha dis inguishes his e alua ion om he e alua ion ha could (and should)
558
be ca ied ou in eal ime h oughou he whole ope a ionalisa ion p ocess.
559
560
Table 4. Examples o key ques ions o add ess du ing he o esigh assessmen p ocess
561
Examples o key ques ion(s)
Po en ial key heu is ics
40
P ocesses
• Wha unde lying dynamics o an icipa o y
knowledge co-c ea ion unde pinned he
exe cise?
• How we e he a ious an icipa o y
capabili ies in ended o be de eloped o
ein o ced?
• Which/whose oices we e hea d/silenced,
which/whose capaci ies we e enhanced, and
which/whose spaces o possibili y we e
selec ed/disca ded, and on wha g ounds
Iden i ica ion o powe dynamics and hampe ing
( )ac o s unc ioning du ing an icipa ion p ocesses
Types o ela ionships and hei espec i e quali ies
and asymme ies (e.g. iden i ying ins ances o
a gumen a i e and epis emic injus ices)
Ou comes
• Wha heu is ics and/o an icipa o y
knowledge o capabili ies we e de ac o
ac i a ed? (in he long/medium/sho e m)
• Did he hegemonic dynamics and eali ies o
STI change? Which ones? When? To whom
and in wha sense?
Knowledge abou he eme gence o immedia e,
in e media e, and inal heu is ics (including hose
unexpec ed o undesi ed) and how hey e ol ed in
ime (whe he hey we e ein o ced, a ophied, o
main ained)
Iden i ica ion o he ac o s who bene i ed (o no )
om he esul s and in ela ion o which aspec s
Pu poses
To wha ex en do he ou comes ma ch he
ini ial ope a ionalisa ion plan?
Re lec ion on he in e ening pe o mance and he
adequacy o he ini ial ope a ionalisa ion plan
562
The ealisa ion o his assessmen would ha e as a necessa y condi ion he c ea ion o
563
documen a y eco ds o he p ocesses (e.g. audio, ideo, ield no ebooks). These da a
564
and eco ds could hen be analysed and in e p e ed using a ious well es ablished
565
quali a i e esea ch me hods in he social sciences and humani ies—especially hose
566
ypically applied in he STS. Conduc ing his p ocess e alua ion could se e o d aw
567
p ac ical ope a ional lessons o eed in o subsequen an icipa ion exe cises.
568
5. Conclusions
569
AG, RI, RRI, and TA p opose an icipa ion as a key dimension h ough which o shape
570
mo e esponsible inno a ion. This pape has p o ided an explo a o y o e iew o how
571
an icipa ion has been ope a ionalised ecen ly o AG, RI, RRI, and TA. This o e iew
572
poin s o an ope a ional agmen a ion in add essing he heo e ical challenges
573
associa ed wi h an icipa ion. In heo y, an icipa ion is mobilised o del e in o a leas
574
h ee in e ela ed challenges: Enabling a socio-poli ically obus explo a ion o STI (I.)
575
ou comes (‘posi i e’/‘nega i e’, ‘so ’/‘ha d’), (II.) pu poses and p ocesses, and (III.)
576
c i iquing he pe o ma i e powe o STI isions, imagina ies, p omises, and
577
expec a ions. Howe e , in p ac ice, an icipa ion is ca ied ou wi h a na ow ocus on a
578
41
ew o hese challenges ( hus lea ing challenges and issues unp oblema ised and sub ly
579
p omo ing ei ica ion o some ames and u u es).
580
The he e ogeneous and simul aneously agmen ed na u e o an icipa o y
581
p ac ices has mo i a ed he p oposal o a lexible and gene al quali a i e o esigh
582
p ocess. The o esigh p ocess ou lined he e p oposes o s uc u e he exe cise om i s
583
e y incep ion in o sel - e lexi e p ocesses ega ding how he aming o he
584
in e en i e exe cise is i sel amed and ixed (phase 1, ex-an e). This means, among
585
o he conside a ions, ha he openness and closu e mechanisms in ol ed in he
586
selec ion o he STI as a a ge o in e en ion ( o he de imen o o he s) o in he
587
in i a ion o ac o s o pa icipa e in he p ocess should be c i ically conside ed. Le us
588
imagine ha in his i s o ex-an e o p epa a o y phase, i was decided o ca y ou he
589
an icipa o y exe cise on s a osphe ic sulpha e injec ion as a socio echnical measu e in
590
he ace o clima e change. Mo eo e , a he e ogeneous g oup o ac o s ha e been
591
e lexi ely and c i ically iden i ied and in i ed o pa icipa e in o de o ha e di e en
592
pe spec i es and in e es s among hese ac o s (in ela ion ei he o his echnology in
593
pa icula o o mo e gene al conce ns).
594
The nex phase (i.e. phase 2, ex-du e) would encompass he socio-epis emic and
595
delibe a i e p ocesses o he ac i a ion o an icipa o y heu is ics. The s uc u e
596
p oposes o ini ia e he p ocess by enac ing a c i ical-he meneu ic app oach (subphase
597
2.I). This app oach would include ac i i ies ocused on collec i ely iden i ying he lines
598
o esea ch ha poin o he de elopmen o his STI, e iewing simila echnologies
599
ha a e occu ing in he p esen o ha e occu ed in he pas , and in pa icula c i iquing
600
he ames, na a i es, and u u es (e.g. isions, imagina ies, p omises) ha a e
601
mobilised in ela ion o his STI. The goal is o p oblema ise he (pe spec i es on) pas
602
and cu en s a e o a ai s and simul aneously o a oid (o minimise) ha he
603
48
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