This documen is he Accep ed Manusc ip e sion o a Published Wo k ha appea ed in inal
o m in:
Dilekli N., Cazca o I. 2019. Tes ing he SDG a ge s on wa e and sani a ion using he wo ld ade
model wi h a was e, was ewa e , and ecycling amewo k. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS. 165. DOI
(10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106376).
© 2019 Else ie B.V.
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1
Tes ing he SDG Ta ge s on Wa e and Sani a ion Using he Wo ld T ade Model
wi h a Was e, Was ewa e , and Recycling F amewo k
Abs ac
In his a icle, we employ an ex ended wo ld ade model and ec angula choice o echnology
(WTM/RCOT) amewo k, which minimizes global ac o cos s subjec o sa is ying inal
demand and espec ing egion-speci ic ac o cons ain s, o calcula e he economic cos s o
achie ing he Uni ed Na ions Sus ainable De elopmen Goals (SDGs) o wa e and sani a ion.
We es ima e how achie ing hese goals will a ec ac o use, ade balances, sca ci y en s, and
p oduc ion in 19 egions o he wo ld, d awing on an expanded da abase de eloped om he
GTAP9 da abase, he de eloped model in ol es 64 echnology columns and 74 ows o ac o s
o p oduc ion. On a heo e ical le el, his model con ibu es o he exis ing li e a u e on he opic
by using endogenous cos es ima es ha conside shi s in p oduc ion and ac o sca ci y en s and
by conside ing ecycling and was es wi hin an inpu -ou pu model, in which was es can be
modelled as inpu esou ces as well as was e ou pu s. We ind ha he addi ional ac o cos s o
mee ing he wa e and sani a ion a ge s o he SDGs exceed US$100 billion annually, wi h a o al
cos o US$3.3 illion om 2015 o 2030. These igu es a e simila o o he ecen wo ks on he
subjec despi e me hodological di e ences. I also sugges s ha he wo ldwide SDG a ge s can
be achie ed wi h mode a e cos s ela i e o he o al global GDP, especially in compa ison o he
high es ima ed cos o inac ion. P edic ably, in a eas wo king owa d wa e and sani a ion SDGs
(a eas such as Sub-Saha an A ica, egions in Sou h Asia, e c.), ac o use cos s inc ease, bu no
commensu a ely wi h he g ow h o co e age—some egions, such as a eas o Sou h Ame ica,
no ably ha e highe ac o use cos s along in p opo ion o he co e age. Indeed, Sub-Saha an
A ica, which needs he highes inc ease in co e age, will no likely ha e as la ge inc eases in
ac o uses and would ba ely ge sca ci y en s. In gene al, egions wi h highe SDG a ge s will
equi e u he ade, especially addi ional impo s o inpu s such as chemicals and ene gy
p oduc s. This ade will inc ease ac o ea nings in ac o ich egions such as he Eu opean
Union, Japan, and Ko ea.
Keywo ds: Wo ld T ade Model, inpu -ou pu scena io analysis, SDGs, was e, wa e ,
sani a ion.
This documen is he Accep ed Manusc ip e sion o a Published Wo k ha appea ed in inal
o m in:
Dilekli N., Cazca o I. 2019. Tes ing he SDG a ge s on wa e and sani a ion using he wo ld ade
model wi h a was e, was ewa e , and ecycling amewo k. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS. 165. DOI
(10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106376).
© 2019 Else ie B.V.
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h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
2
1. In oduc ion
As he global popula ion g ows and pe capi a esou ce consump ion inc eases, humani y
aces in e connec ed challenges ela ed o wa e , ood, ene gy, and en i onmen al
sus ainabili y. Recognizing hese challenges, many esea che s ha e u ned hei a en ion
owa d iden i ying mo e sus ainable s a egies o global esou ce managemen . See, o
example, he wo k o Beng sson e al. (2018), Heinz e al. (2017), Hubacek e al. (2016),
Kol un (2010), and K ausmann e al. (2017).
In his pape , we employ an in eg a ed Wo ld T ade Model and Rec angula Choice o
Technology Model (WTM/RCOT) o assess he economic cos s and he changes in ac o
use, ade balances, sca ci y en s, and p oduc ion ha would be equi ed i he wo ld is
o mee he Uni ed Na ions Sus ainable De elopmen Goals (SDGs) ela ed o wa e and
sani a ion.
In 2015, he Uni ed Na ions p omulga ed he SDGs as a uni e sal call o ac ion o end
po e y, p o ec he plane , and ensu e ha all people enjoy peace and p ospe i y. The
Goal 6 a ge s o he SDGs aim o achie e uni e sal and equi able access o sa e and
a o dable d inking wa e , sani a ion, and hygiene by 2030. These goals a e ambi ious. In
2008, nea ly 900 million people did no ecei e d inking-wa e om imp o ed wa e
sou ces (WHO/UN, 2010), and in 2015, o e 2.4 billion people li ed wi hou access o
imp o ed sani a ion acili ies (UNICEF, 2015). As o 2015, a leas 1.8 billion people ely
on a sou ce o d inking wa e ha is con amina ed by eces, and o he was ewa e
p oduced by human ac i i ies, mo e han 80% is discha ged in o i e s o seas wi hou
any pollu ion emo al (UNICEF, 2015). The consequen impac s o human heal h include
he dea hs o 1.8 million child en unde he age o i e e e y yea om wa e - ela ed
diseases (Co co an e al., 2010) and he dea hs o a o al o 2.2 million people annually
om diseases, such as chole a, yphoid, and dysen e y, ha a e sp ead by con amina ed
wa e and poo hygiene. Fu he su e ing is h ea ened by wo sening eshwa e s ess,
which is exace ba ed by popula ion g ow h, seasonal d ough s, and global clima e change
(UN_Wa e -FAO, 2007; Wa kins e al., 2006). To mo e om he cu en s a e o a ai s
o he wo ld en isioned by he SDGs, humani y mus make subs an ial in es men s in
was ewa e ea men and sani a ion. Along his line o hinking, we pose he ollowing
esea ch ques ion: Is i physically easible o sa is y he SDGs ega ding sa e wa e and
sani a ion by 2030? I so, wha in as uc u e sys ems and echnologies would need o be
pu in place and how subs an ial mus hese in es men s be, hough? Wha changes in he
global economy will hey en ail?
In his wo k, we add ess hese ques ions h ough a WTM/RCOT amewo k ex ended o
dealing wi h was e and necessa y capi al in es men s. We s udy how achie ing he SDGs
equi es inancial cos s and a ec s ac o use, ade balances, sca ci y en s, and
p oduc ion, unde h ee di e en ypes o scena io (each wi h ou a ian s). The i s ype
This documen is he Accep ed Manusc ip e sion o a Published Wo k ha appea ed in inal
o m in:
Dilekli N., Cazca o I. 2019. Tes ing he SDG a ge s on wa e and sani a ion using he wo ld ade
model wi h a was e, was ewa e , and ecycling amewo k. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS. 165. DOI
(10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106376).
© 2019 Else ie B.V.
This manusc ip e sion is made a ailable unde he CC-BY-NC-ND 3.0 license
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3
o scena io deals wi h he hypo he ical accomplishmen o he Uni ed Na ion’s p e ious
Millennium De elopmen Goals (MDGs), which we e he p ecu so s o SDGs in he
pe iod om 2011-2015. Secondly, he ac ual-his o ical accomplishmen o he pas
MDGs ( he eal end) is un o he same pe iod, se ing as he baseline o he hi d
scena io. The hi d ype o scena io, o which we dedica e mos o ou a en ion, uses he
second ype o scena io as a baseline o p ojec he economic cos s and consequences o
mee ing he SDG a ge s ela ed o wa e supply ( he p o ision o access o heal h ul,
accessible, and a o dable wa e ) and sani a ion ( he e acua ion, ea men , egene a ion,
and euse o was ewa e ).
2. Li e a u e Re iew
Since he a ailabili y (o lack) o clean wa e has implica ions o he en i onmen , human
heal h, and economic ac i i y, he e is signi ican in e es in he cos s and consequences
o p o iding clean wa e , pa icula ly o mee SDG Goal 6.
Exis ing s udies—when accoun ing no jus o basic wa e supply bu also o ad anced
sys ems, such as in-house sewage and egula ed in-house piped wa e supplies wi h
quali y moni o ing—es ima e ha p o iding wa e and sani a ion o all would equi e
be ween US$2 billion and US$100 billion annually (Annam aju e al., 2001; Financing
Wa e Fo All, 2003; Hu on and Halle , 2004; Wo ld-Bank, 2003). The conside able
a ia ion be ween hese cos s is due o high unce ain y ela ed o ea men echnologies,
ambigui ies in de ining he a ge s in quan i iable e ms, lack o da a, and he use o
di e en me hods and assump ions. As a summa y o exis ing conclusions, we ep esen
in Table S1 he majo s udies es ima ing he cos s o he wa e and sani a ion a ge s o
MDGs and SDGs.
As e iewed by Toubkiss (2006), he cos s o eaching wa e and sani a ion a ge s a e
o en unde es ima ed, wi h s udies egula ly ailing o include he cos s o main aining,
ehabili a ing, o eplacing exis ing in as uc u e, which may be aging o neglec ed. In
an addi ional sou ce o possible e o , exis ing s udies ely on exogenous p icing o
calcula e global cos s. The accu a e ea men o ecycling and was e has also been a
challenge, pa icula ly he modelling o was es ha can be inpu esou ces as well as was e
ou pu s. In sho , he ac ual cos s and consequences o achie ing wa e - ela ed SDGs a e
s ill con es able.
To make models o wa e and sani a ion mo e accu a e and eliable, esea che s ha e
de eloped se e al p omising app oaches. To inc ease he accu acy o p ice es ima es and
add ess inaccu acies in oduced by exogenous p icing, IO analyses can calcula e shi s in
p oduc ion and ac o sca ci y en s o de e mine cos s endogenously, add essing
scena ios ha include changes in demands. IO models can also add ess issues o ecycling
and was e. Examples o such wo k include Duchin's (1990a) seminal wo k, which, wi hin
This documen is he Accep ed Manusc ip e sion o a Published Wo k ha appea ed in inal
o m in:
Dilekli N., Cazca o I. 2019. Tes ing he SDG a ge s on wa e and sani a ion using he wo ld ade
model wi h a was e, was ewa e , and ecycling amewo k. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS. 165. DOI
(10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106376).
© 2019 Else ie B.V.
This manusc ip e sion is made a ailable unde he CC-BY-NC-ND 3.0 license
h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
4
he amewo k o he en i onmen al IO model, included an example wi h wo ypes o
was ewa e aba emen p ocesses, which espec i ely ea was ewa e con aining high and
low le els o biological solids; he WIO model (Kondo and Nakamu a, 2003; Nakamu a,
1999; Nakamu a and Kondo, 2002), which is also a miles one in he ield and is used in
he li e a u e o s udy he ela ion be ween physical and mone a y IO ables
(Die zenbache , 2005; Giljum e al., 2004; Suh e al., 2009; Weisz and Duchin, 2006) and
ma e ial low analysis and ela ed opics in indus ial ecology (Suh and Kagawa, 2005);
and he esea ch o Kagawa (2005), Kondo and Nakamu a (2005), Nakamu a e al.
(2007), Nakamu a and Kondo (2006), Nakamu a and Nakajima (2006, 2005), Takase e
al. (2005), and Yokoyama e al. (2006), who de eloped a WIO linea p og amming model
(WIO-LP), a decision analy ic ex ension o he WIO.
The WIO model is an ex ension o he con en ional IO model ha explici ly conside s
he in e dependence be ween he low o goods and he low o was e in he whole
economy. I is a gene aliza ion o he Leon ie –Duchin en i onmen al IO model (Duchin,
1990; Leon ie , 1970) wi h emphasis on was e lows. The WIO model p o ides a gene al
amewo k o hyb id li e cycle assessmen (LCA) in ol ing was e managemen and
ecycling. A numbe o LCA and li e cycle in en o y analyses o was ewa e ea men
ha e been ca ied ou based on p ocess da a. See, o example, Almanza Rami ez (2012),
F anklinAssocia es (2009), Meng e al. (2010), Muñoz e al. (2017), and Risch e al. (
2015). Lin (2011, 2009) p oposed i as an ex ension o a hyb id IO model designed o
analyze bo h he gene a ion and ea men o was ewa e . Lenzen and Reynolds (2014)
inco po a ed a supply-use o malism, esul ing in was e supply-use ables, and
mul i egional WIO has been p oposed o he s udy o s eel (Pauliuk e al., 2017).
Addi ionally, Dilekli and Duchin (2015) explici ly used nega i e coe icien s wi hin a
WTM/RCOT o ep esen go e nmen subsidies and use ul chemical byp oduc s
gene a ed by he cellulosic e hanol sec o s. Thei success ul applica ion o nega i e
coe icien s demons a es ha abili y o ep esen ecycling and was e ea men wi hin a
WTM/RCOT model.
In his sec ion, we iden i ied ha mos o he IO s udies ocus on he small scale o bo om-
up aspec s (wa e and sani a ion echnologies and hei cos s, ypes o connec ions o
households, ac o uses, e c.). Howe e , he ami ica ions o he global economy due o
changing low o goods and ac o p ices has no been su icien ly cla i ied, especially in
he con ex o was ewa e ea men . We he e o e pay a subs an ial e o o disco e he
global pa e ns while inco po a ing he smalle scale da a o accu acy. Building on hese
p e ious s udies, his pape adop s a mul i egional WTM/RCOT as an op imiza ion model
and in oduces basic elemen s o he WIO and dynamic IO models o analyze wa e and
sani a ion in ela ion o SDGs. In addi ion o his pape ’s wo k in oducing WIO and
This documen is he Accep ed Manusc ip e sion o a Published Wo k ha appea ed in inal
o m in:
Dilekli N., Cazca o I. 2019. Tes ing he SDG a ge s on wa e and sani a ion using he wo ld ade
model wi h a was e, was ewa e , and ecycling amewo k. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS. 165. DOI
(10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106376).
© 2019 Else ie B.V.
This manusc ip e sion is made a ailable unde he CC-BY-NC-ND 3.0 license
h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
5
dynamic IO o WMT/RCOT, his pape also di e s om mos a icles on wa e pollu ion
(including he mal pollu ion) and IO (see Dua e e al., 2002; Dua e and Sanchez-Choliz,
1998; Ni e al., 2001; Okade a e al., 2006, Chenowe h e al., 2014; Daniels e al., 2011;
Dua e and Yang, 2011, Dilekli e al., 2018) by posing wa e sani a ion as he cen al
objec o s udy.
3. Ma e ials and Me hods
This s udy employs an ex ended WTM/RCOT amewo k ha inco po a es WIO, IO, and
an upda ed da abase buil upon he GTAP9 da abase de eloped by Na ayanan e al. (2015,
2012). This ex ended model is used o explo e h ee main scena ios, each wi h ou
a iables, o wa e ea men and sani a ion.
3.1 The Ex ended WTM/RCOT
The WTM is a linea p og am ha minimizes global ac o use subjec o sa is ying inal
demand and espec ing egion-speci ic ac o cons ain s (Duchin, 2005). A model
solu ion e lec s compa a i e ad an age gene alized o he case o 𝑚 egions, 𝑛 sec o s,
and 𝑘 ac o s. The WTM he e inco po a es he ec angula choice-o - echnology (RCOT)
model (Duchin and Le ine, 2012, 2011) ha makes he endogenous choice among
echnologies. Each egion’s ma ix o in e media e inpu coe icien s is ec angula in ha
i includes a column o each al e na i e echnology, bu only a single ow o each o
hose deli e ies, like a ypical IO ma ix, on he assump ion ha he consume is
indi e en o he way he p oduc was p oduced. The WTM logic assumes ha p oduc ion
akes place in he ela i ely lowes -cos egions, and he RCOT logic assumes ha he
p oducing egions use hei ela i ely lowes -cos echnological op ions, subjec o
cons ain s imposed by limi ed ac o endowmen s. A esou ce (o o he ac o o
p oduc ion) ha is ully u ilized in a gi en egion incu s a sca ci y en in addi ion o he
exogenous po ion o i s p ice.
The model sol ed o e ime we de elop he e wo ks wi h ma ices and ec o s: ixed (o e
ime) A𝑖
∗ ma ices o in e media e inpu equi emen s, and F𝑖
∗ ma ices o ac o inpu s pe
uni o ou pu o inal demand and π*i ec o s o ac o p ices; wi h exogenous a iables
including yi ec o s o domes ic inal demand; ki ec o s o accumula ed (i.e. new capi al
in es men o wa e echnologies), Ri ma ices o eplacemen capi al in es men
(amoun o capi al goods p oduced by sec o n and held by echnology ha mus be
eplaced in o de o echnology o p oduce a uni o ou pu du ing a yea ) o wa e
echnologies, i ec o s o ac o endowmen s,; and h ee ec o s o endogenous a iables
including xi ec o s o ou pu ; p ec o o wo ld p ices, and i ec o s o sca ci y en s on
ully u ilized ac o s, o each egion 𝑖. The pa ame e s (exogenous) and endogenous
This documen is he Accep ed Manusc ip e sion o a Published Wo k ha appea ed in inal
o m in:
Dilekli N., Cazca o I. 2019. Tes ing he SDG a ge s on wa e and sani a ion using he wo ld ade
model wi h a was e, was ewa e , and ecycling amewo k. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS. 165. DOI
(10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106376).
© 2019 Else ie B.V.
This manusc ip e sion is made a ailable unde he CC-BY-NC-ND 3.0 license
h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
6
a iables a e shown in Suppo ing In o ma ion (S) Table S2. They a e modi ied o e lec
each ype o scena io. Addi ionally, hey a e modi ied dynamically o each annual ime
s ep since he model is un o e a ime se ies.
The objec i e unc ion (1) o he WTM/RCOT p imal model minimizes he global ac o
use cos , adding o he usual componen o ac o s o p oduc ion pe uni o ou pu , F𝑖,𝑖𝑛𝑡
∗,
he ec o F𝑖,𝑦
∗ o di ec uses (o was e) pe uni o inal demand (𝐲𝑖
+ being he no malized
ec o o inal demand in mone a y uni s). The ma ix equa ion summing o e egions
(2) assu es ha global inal demand is sa is ied, (3) imposes ac o cons ain s in each
egion by limi ing esou ce use bo h o in e media e p oduc ion and inal demand, and
(4) assu es ha all ou pu s a e non-nega i e.
min 𝑍 = ∑π*𝑖
′(F𝑖,𝑖𝑛𝑡
∗x𝑖
∗+𝐅𝑖,𝑦
∗∑𝐲𝑖
+
𝒏)
𝑖 (1)
subjec o
∑(𝐈∗−A𝑖
∗− 𝐑𝑖)𝐱𝑖=∑k𝑖𝑖 +∑y𝑖
𝑖𝑖 (2)
Based on equa ion 1, he solu ion is d i en by π*𝑖
′F𝑖,𝑖𝑛𝑡
∗x𝑖
∗ as in he o iginal o mula ion
o he WTM gi en ha bo h 𝐅𝑖,𝑦
∗ and 𝐲𝑖
+ a e exogenous (compu ed “ou side o he model”)
o each un. They mainly unc ion as ac o cons ain s as shown in Equa ion 4. In
equa ion 2, 𝐑i is simply de ined o he columns o wa e supply and ea men
echnologies 𝐭, while a bi a ily small alues a e in oduced in he cells o he sec o s wi h
he associa ed echnologies (quasi main diagonal). Simila ly, his is also applied o k𝑖,
e lec ing he capi al p oduced in he di e en sec o s o inc ease he capaci y o he wa e
supply and ea men echnologies 𝐭. Ou k𝑖 plays he ole o wha was de ined as B𝑖
∗𝐨
(in es men capi al ma ix o egion i imes he inc ease in he p oduc i e capaci y
be ween pe iods pe iod -1 and pe iod ) in he seminal wo ks on dynamic IO models, such
as Duchin and Szyld (1985) and Leon ie and Duchin (1986). He e ou o mula ion is
simple , wi hou any o wa d-looking p ojec ed capaci y expansion. In ou applica ion
𝐑𝑖 and k𝑖 a e de ined solely om he ga he ed da a on he necessa y in es men o capi al
eplacemen in a yea , and on he cumula i e new in es men in wa e and wa e ea men
sec o s o mee he SDG a ge s (Re e o Figu e S2 o amoun s accoun ed o on his las
aspec ).
I should be no ed ha , we can de i e he ollowing equa ion o he s udy o he ne
expo s (𝐞) by each egion 𝑖 a e he execu ion o he model:
(𝐈∗−A𝑖
∗−R𝑖
∗)𝐱𝑖=k𝑖+y𝑖+ 𝐞𝒊 ∀𝑖 (3)
Commen ed [ND1]: I hink his may be con used wi h ,
echnology wo lines abo e. Tha ’s he eason I changed i
acco dingly.
This documen is he Accep ed Manusc ip e sion o a Published Wo k ha appea ed in inal
o m in:
Dilekli N., Cazca o I. 2019. Tes ing he SDG a ge s on wa e and sani a ion using he wo ld ade
model wi h a was e, was ewa e , and ecycling amewo k. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS. 165. DOI
(10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106376).
© 2019 Else ie B.V.
This manusc ip e sion is made a ailable unde he CC-BY-NC-ND 3.0 license
h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
7
The equa ion on ac o , was e, o any ep esen ed p essu es wi h he F𝑖,𝑖𝑛𝑡
∗ ma ices and
F𝑖,𝑦
∗ ec o s is o mula ed as ollows, sa is ying also he condi ion o non-nega i e
(equa ion 5) p oduc ion:
∑(F
𝑡𝑖,𝑖𝑛𝑡
∗𝐱𝑖) + F𝑖,𝑦
∗∑y
𝒏𝑖
+≤ 𝑖, ∀𝑖 (4)
º 𝐱𝑖≥ 0 ∀𝑖. (5)
The inclusion o F𝑖,𝑦
∗ aims o add ess how o bes e lec consump ion and was e
occu ing a household le el, which is no o dina ily cap u ed h ough ac o use o
in e media e p oduc ion. When people d aw wa e om a well o pick ee b anches o
daily ac i i ies, i can as well be conside ed an economic ac i i y and could be e lec ed
in 𝐅𝑖,𝑖𝑛𝑡
∗ o mo e accu a e accoun ing and analysis. Addi ionally, his allows he model o
be mo e explici and modula (ins ead o con ounding he componen F𝑖,𝑦
∗∑y
𝒏𝑖
+), while
accoun ing o his pu pose and be e limi ing he use o he ac o endowmen ,
2
.
Al e na i ely i is possible o o mula e he equa ions sepa a ing he ma ices o ne was e
o sec o s G𝑖,𝑖𝑛𝑡
∗ and o ne was e o households G𝑖,𝑦
∗ om F𝑖,𝑖𝑛𝑡
∗ and F𝑖,𝑦
∗, so ha equa ion
(4) would ead be ∑((F
𝑡𝑖,𝑖𝑛𝑡
∗+G𝑖,𝑖𝑛𝑡
∗)𝐱𝑖) + (F𝑖,𝑦
∗ + G𝑖,𝑦
∗)∑𝐲𝒊𝒏 ≤ 𝑖, ∀𝑖. Howe e , we
p e e o keep he o iginal o mula ion because in some cases a speci ic ow in F — o
example, wa e o a ce ain low quali y— is an inpu o a echnology (posi i e alue) and
a was e ou pu o ano he (which needs a highe quali y ype and e u ns his lowe
quali y ype, wi h a nega i e coe icien ). We could also conside he ma ix o
in e media e coe icien s o he was e p ocessing sec o s (A𝑖
∗,𝐼𝐼) sepa a ely om A𝑖
∗, as in
Nakamu a and Kondo (2002), bu we keep he o mula ion wi h he whole A𝑖
∗, jus no ing
ha while mos o he sec o s ypically show nega i e coe icien s o was e ou pu ows,
hese p ocessing sec o s ypically will ha e posi i e coe icien s in was e ou pu ows (o
in he case o p ima y and seconda y was e wa e ea men , in he ow o low quali y
wa e ). 𝑘,𝑖, he was e endowmen is ei he ze o o a nega i e alue (e.g. en i onmen al
egula ions), o each ype k o was e.
The model ep esen s a compac e sion o a mul i-sec o al and mul i- egional wo ld
economy ha is pa ame e ized o un scena ios. Because i is based on he logic o
compa a i e ad an age, i does no equi e he pa ame e iza ion o ade o equa ions
quan i ying impo s and expo s as unc ions o o he a iables.
2
In scena io analysis his also needs o be conside ed, since i equi es a pa ame e speci ying he ela ion
be ween he changes in he consump ion by sec o s a ec ing he esou ce use o an elemen o F𝑖,𝑦
∗ o o al
inal demand (e.g. he ela ion o he change in F𝑖,𝑦
∗ when changing he wa e demand wi h espec o o al
inal demand).
Commen ed [ND2]: Wha is his?
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model wi h a was e, was ewa e , and ecycling amewo k. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS. 165. DOI
(10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106376).
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8
Addi ionally, we in oduce cons ain s on ade o non- aded
3
o pa ially aded sec o s,
so ha o a sec o n, he equa ion (2) has o be me ully (o pa ially) o each egion.
Also he bene i -o - ade cons ain assu es ha a egion will en e in o ade only o he
ex en ha i s impo s a no- ade p ices a e wo h a leas as much as i s expo s. This
cons ain in ol ing he no- ade (model) p ice p'n mi, is depic ed in he ollowing
equa ion:
∑(p'n mi(𝐈∗−A𝑖
∗)xi ≤ ∑(p'n mi yi)
𝑛
𝑛,𝑡 (6)
3.2 Was e and Recycling Concep ualiza ion wi hin he WTM/RCOT
The applica ion in he WTM/RCOT o was e and ecycling p oposed he e bo ows
ce ain concep ualiza ions om WIO in he ep esen a ion o was e and was e ea men
p ocesses, wi h pa simonious ep esen a ion o key p ocesses. The model used allows
wo k wi h physical uni s. I enables he addi ion o new and al e na i e echnologies, such
as al e na i e was e ea men echnologies including compos ing (C), incine a ion (I),
land illing (L), sh edding (S), gasi ica ion (G), and al e na i e ecycling (R). In his
applica ion, we de elop echnology columns o each ecycling echnology in A and F
ma ices. These addi ional columns co espond o he “Alloca ion Ma ix” in WIO and
ep esen he use o he ea ed/ ecycled/ e-used ma e ial.
We ep esen e u ns o byp oduc s as aw ma e ials ( ac o s) as well as commodi ies
using F and A ma ices. Acco ding o he nomencla u e o he WIO, was e “inpu s” (Wi)
a e ep esen ed by posi i e alues (+), and was e “ou pu s” (Wo) a e ep esen ed wi h
nega i e alues (-). These alues a e in physical uni s ( ypically ons, o m3, e c.) pe uni
o ou pu . We iden i y wo ypes o was e ou pu : was e ou pu ha can be ecycled in o
a use ul ma e ial ( ep esen ed wi h a + alue) by a ea men echnology and was e ou pu
ha canno be ecycled and ha is subjec o he ca ying capaci y o he sys em (e.g.,
limi a ion o land ill a ea o an en i onmen al egula ion). In he la e case, an cons ain
is in oduced wi h a nega i e alue o limi i s gene a ion.
WTM/RCOT p o ides endogenous mechanisms o p o ide easible solu ions. We
acco dingly cons uc ecycling echnologies o ensu e ac o endowmen s can be
a ailable as much as needed by economies, p o ided ha he cos s a e me . The model
also allows o he u iliza ion o he p ice (πi) o he ac o s and ne was e inpu , as
explained by Nakamu a and Kondo (2006) and Nakamu a and Kondo (2009).
Addi ionally, was e om households can be and is accommoda ed o impose cons ain s
3
These sec o s include Wa e dis ibu ion, Wa e ea men 1, Wa e ea men 2, Cons uc ion,
Communica ion, Rec ea ional and o he se ices, Public Adminis a ion, De ense, Educa ion, Heal h and
Dwellings.
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Dilekli N., Cazca o I. 2019. Tes ing he SDG a ge s on wa e and sani a ion using he wo ld ade
model wi h a was e, was ewa e , and ecycling amewo k. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS. 165. DOI
(10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106376).
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9
by in oducing he ec o F𝑖,𝑦
∗ o households’ ac o use pe uni o inal demand, which
also implies a ac o use in absolu e e ms F𝑖,𝑦
∗y𝑖
∗, a ec ing he cons ain on endowmen
(equa ion 4). P e ious WTM applica ions did no ep esen di ec was e (o ood o he
co esponding ow, o o he was e h ough oile s as ou pu o low-quali y wa e ) o
emissions di ec ly impu ed o households ( anspo , such as ca s, elec ici y
consump ion, e c.); his ex ension makes i possible o inco po a e his impo an ea u e.
In he Figu e S1, we p o ide a mo e gene al and de ailed explana ion and ep esen a ion
o was e in he WTM/RCOT. In Figu e 1 below we p o ide a concep ual da abase o
ep esen wa e pollu ion and wa e ea men wi h ele an echnologies o a gi en
sec o based on hei abili y o use low-quali y (L), medium quali y (M), o high quali y
(H) wa e . This de ines a amewo k on how he sludge, wa e ea men p ocess, and
wa e quali y a e ep esen ed. Sewage sludge is p oduced om he ea men o
was ewa e in sewage ea men plan s. I is usually ea ed by one o se e al ea men
s eps. Following ea men , i is ei he land illed, incine a ed, applied on ag icul u al land,
o , in some cases, e ailed o gi en away.
I wa e canno be used due o wa e quali y and quan i y equi emen s, ei he was ewa e
ea men akes place, o p oduc ion needing clean wa e mo es o ano he loca ion. In
o de o mee d inking quali y o a ce ain s anda d, wa e is ypically pu i ied o emo e
undesi able chemicals, biological con aminan s, suspended solids, and gases. Also,
households demand he olumes supplied by he wa e sec o (unde s ood in gene al
e ms, hese olumes can be piped wa e , as is ypical in de eloped coun ies, o “basic”
om wells), and households also demand sani a ion (wa e should be accessible on
p emises, a ailable when needed, and ee om con amina ion). Sani a ion can be ei he
“basic” (p o ided om ou i s wa e cleaning echnology) o “sa ely managed”
(p o ided om ou second wa e cleaning echnology).
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Dilekli N., Cazca o I. 2019. Tes ing he SDG a ge s on wa e and sani a ion using he wo ld ade
model wi h a was e, was ewa e , and ecycling amewo k. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS. 165. DOI
(10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106376).
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16
Figu e 2 summa izes he global pa hs o popula ion co e age o he baseline and SDG
scena ios. Figu es S2 and S3 show popula ion co e age o he di e en egions modelled
he e.
Figu e 2: Popula ion (millions o people) a ge ed o co e age (unde he MDGs and
SDGs) and ac ually co e ed
Sou ce: Own elabo a ion om Hu on and Ba am, 2008; Hu on and Va ughese, 2016; JMP, 2018; UN,
2018, 2017; WHO, 2012.
The scena ios p esen ed in he ollowing sec ions depa om he new baseline o he
yea 2015.
4.1. Global cos s and ac o uses
To e alua e global cos s associa ed wi h achie ing SDG goals, we i s look a he ac o
use cos s, which a e gene a ed om inc eased inal demands and he inc eased ac o s
and inpu s (goods and se ices) equi ed o mee he demands. F om 2015 o 2030, global
ac o cos s ( e lec ed as he global alue o Z, he objec i e unc ion) inc ease om
US$62 illion in 2015 o US$135.4 illion in 2030 (2015 p ices). Unde scena ios wi h
he medium a ian s o popula ion g ow h and G oss Regional P oduc (GRP) pe capi a
g ow h (equi alen o he SSP2 o IIASA), global ac o use cos s each o app oxima ely
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model wi h a was e, was ewa e , and ecycling amewo k. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS. 165. DOI
(10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106376).
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17
US$132 illion in 2030 (2015 p ices). As shown in Figu e 3, he scena io wi h high
popula ion g ow h and low GRP pe capi a g ow h (pa h SSP3) in ol es smalle cos s
han a scena io wi h low popula ion g ow h and ela i ely high GRP pe capi a g ow h
(pa h SSP5). The di e ences in global cos s due o hese di e ences in pa hs a e highe
han he di e ences due o he accomplishmen o he SDG a ge s.
Unde he a ian o echnological con e gence, i equi es a o al o US$3.4 illion (2015
p ices) om 2015 o 2030 in o de o accomplish he SDGs unde he sa ely managed
pa hway wi h medium g ow h in GDP pe capi a. This o al expense ep esen s abou
0.24% o he global GDP on a e age. Unde he scena io a ian o low g ow h in GDP
pe capi a (SSP3), he o al cos om 2015 o 2030 is US$3 illion; wi h high g ow h in
GDP pe capi a (SSP5), he cos is US$3.7 illion (2015 p ices). Accomplishing he
“Basic” SDGs wi h medium g ow h in GDP pe capi a (scena io a ian SSP2) equi es
a o al o US$1.9 illion (2015 p ices) be ween 2015 and 2030.
Figu e 3: Change in he Global Value o Z be ween 2015 and 2030 wi h he echnological
con e gence a ian (million US$).
Sou ce: Modelling esul s.
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Dilekli N., Cazca o I. 2019. Tes ing he SDG a ge s on wa e and sani a ion using he wo ld ade
model wi h a was e, was ewa e , and ecycling amewo k. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS. 165. DOI
(10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106376).
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Fo SDG wa e supply a ge s, he a ea wi h he la ges need o inc ease co e age is he
egion o Sub-Saha an A ica, ollowed in o de by Sou heas Asia, Sou h Asia, Malaysia
and Indonesia, and India. Fo he “Sa ely managed” sani a ion a ge s, he highes inc ease
in co e age is equi ed in Sou h Asia, ollowed by he ollowing egions in Asia: India
and China.
Inc easing co e age in hese egions does a ec ac o uses and inc ease cos s, bu he
global cos s om ac o use a e domina ed by he egions o US, EU, and China, ollowed
a a dis ance by Japan and Ko eas. Figu e S3 shows he absolu e change in ac o use
cos s (π𝑖
′(F𝑖,𝑖𝑛𝑡
∗x𝑖
∗+𝐅𝑖,𝑦
∗𝐲𝑖
∗+)) o he 19 egions om 2015 o 2030 (sa ely managed
a ge s, medium popula ion g ow h and GRP pe capi a, SSP2). Unde he same scena ios,
Figu e S4 shows he change by ac o s. Mo e in e es ing may be he pe cen age changes
in ac o use cos s, which a e shown in Figu e 4. In he achie emen o he SDGs o
wa e and sani a ion, No h A ica and he Middle Eas (16MEAS_NAF_RSA), as well
as Eas Asia, Sou h Ame ica, China, and Sou h Asia, would expe ience he highes
inc eases in ac o use cos s.
Figu e 4 e lec s changes in popula ion and GRP pe capi a, based on he SDG wa e and
sani a ion accomplishmen . Thus, Figu e 5 has been de eloped o isola e he compa ison
by showing he di e en ial change in ac o use cos s (compa ing sa ely managed a ge
s. no inc ease in accomplishmen ) in he 19 egions om 2015 o 2030. We obse e ha
Sou h Asia and Middle Eas and No h A ica show he highes di e en ial inc eases wi h
espec o hei GRP, ollowed a a dis ance by B azil and Sub-Saha an A ica.
Figu e 4: Pe cen age change in ac o use cos s equi ed o achie e sa ely managed wa e
and sani a ion acco ding o he SDGs (medium popula ion g ow h and GRP pe capi a,
SSP2 a ian ) in 19 egions om 2015 o 2030.
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Dilekli N., Cazca o I. 2019. Tes ing he SDG a ge s on wa e and sani a ion using he wo ld ade
model wi h a was e, was ewa e , and ecycling amewo k. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS. 165. DOI
(10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106376).
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19
No e: The o de ing o he egions om op o bo om ollows om highes o lowes end poin (in 2030).
Sou ce: Modelling esul s.
Figu e 5: Di e en ial change (wi h sa ely managed a ge s. no inc ease in
accomplishmen ) in ac o use cos s in he 13 egions wi h he highes pe cen age change
om 2015 o 2030 (medium popula ion g ow h and GRP pe capi a, SSP2 a ian ).
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Dilekli N., Cazca o I. 2019. Tes ing he SDG a ge s on wa e and sani a ion using he wo ld ade
model wi h a was e, was ewa e , and ecycling amewo k. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS. 165. DOI
(10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106376).
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No e: The o de ing o he egions om le o igh ollows he highes pe cen age change in 2030 wi h
espec o he GRP, as shown in he le axis. The igh axis shows he absolu e change in US$ million.
Sou ce: Modelling esul s.
4.2. Sca ci y en s
In his sec ion, we ind ha mos o he changes in ac o ea nings do no occu di ec ly
in hose egions wi h he highes changes in inal demand. We speci ically ind inc easing
ac o ea nings, despi e low in as uc u e in es men s, o some a luen egions ha
al eady ha e high le els o wa e and sani a ion co e age. This is explained by how hi d
pa ies ( egions whe e ac o uses a e no subs an ially changed) may ge addi ional
ea nings om en e ing in o p oduc ion and ade in he sec o s o lowes cos p oduce
egions, inc easing ac o ea nings o hose egions ha we e al eady p oducing he
echnology a a lowe p ice. We may ind ha he winne s om achie ing SDG a ge s
a e no only hose egions ha ob ain inc eased co e age, bu also hose egions whe e
en s a e inc easingly ea ned om highe use and sca ci y o esou ces. The main eason
o his is ha he combina ion o inpu s needed o achie ing hese goals al e p oduc ion
elsewhe e, and hence ac o uses. Fac o s ha a e ully u ilized in a egion ea n a sca ci y
en (𝐫). A non-ze o en indica es ha he ac o is sca ce in ha egion, e en i i is no
a p iced ac o .
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Dilekli N., Cazca o I. 2019. Tes ing he SDG a ge s on wa e and sani a ion using he wo ld ade
model wi h a was e, was ewa e , and ecycling amewo k. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS. 165. DOI
(10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106376).
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21
To explain his u he , Figu e S5 shows he p ojec ed absolu e changes in sca ci y en s
by egion (led in absolu e e ms by China and EU, ollowed a a dis ance by he US, India,
Middle Eas and No h A ica, and Japan and Ko eas). Simila ly, Figu e S6 shows he
p ojec ed absolu e changes in sca ci y en s by ac o s. The ini ial pa h is s able, which
can be explained by he dec easingly impo an addi ional capi al in es men s, wi h some
ele an inc eases in he second hal o he pe iod. Figu e 6 summa izes he di e en ial
change in sca ci y en s compa ed o he G oss Regional P oduc (GRP) by egions. As
shown in Figu e 6, he egion o Middle Eas and No h A ica ob ains he highes
inc eases in sca ci y en s as a pe cen age o i s GRP, a esul a ibu able o he inc eased
p oduc ion in some o he sec o s in which his egion is a low-cos p oduce , sec o s such
as mine al ex ac ion, e ous me als, pe oleum and coal p oduc s, chemicals, and ubbe
and plas ic p oduc s.
Finally, ade balances indica e he need o u he ade in egions ha equi e high
inc eases in wa e and sani a ion co e age. Speci ically, hese egions will equi e he
impo a ion o ele an inpu s, such as chemicals. This is shown in he SM (“Addi ional
esul s and discussions”).
Figu e 6: Di e en ial change in sca ci y en s (wi h sa ely managed a ge s. no inc ease
in accomplishmen ) wi h espec o GRP by selec ed ( op 12) egions om 2015 o 2030
(medium popula ion g ow h and GD pe capi a, SSP2 a ian ).
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Dilekli N., Cazca o I. 2019. Tes ing he SDG a ge s on wa e and sani a ion using he wo ld ade
model wi h a was e, was ewa e , and ecycling amewo k. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS. 165. DOI
(10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106376).
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22
No e: The o de ing o he egions om op o bo om ollows om highes o lowes end poin (in 2030).
Sou ce: Modelling esul s.
5. Discussions
As we ha e e iewed, a long h ead o li e a u e has e y ca e ully add essed he p ojec ed
cos s and bene i s o accomplishing he MDG and SDG a ge s a he echnology de ail
le el (Dobbs e al., 2013; Hu on, 2013; Hu on and Ba am, 2008; Hu on and Chase,
2016; Hu on and Halle , 2004; Hu on and Va ughese, 2016; U.N. Wa e , 2015;
Whi ing on e al., 2007; WHO, 2012; WHO and UN-Wa e , 2012; Wo ld Bank G oup
and UNICEF, 2017). P e ious wo ks o e insigh ul indings on a ying le els o goal
accomplishmen , in es men cos s, bene i s, and inancing gaps. F om a me hodological
pe spec i e, ou applica ion o WTM complemen s hese s udies by p o iding de ailed
in o ma ion on p oduc ion, ade balances, p ices, ac o use, and sca ci y en s in an
i e a i e manne wi h mul iple ime s eps.
Ou WTM esul s on ade balance changes e eal o wha ex en he egions a e
specialized (o no ) in p oducing he inpu s needed o un wa e dis ibu ion and ea men
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
4%
5%
5%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
16MEAS_NAF_RSA
19Russia
11CS_Ame ica
14EU27
13B azil
7Sou hAsia
8India
17SS_A ica
18O he _CEE_CI
12SOAme ica
10US
3ChinaHK
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Dilekli N., Cazca o I. 2019. Tes ing he SDG a ge s on wa e and sani a ion using he wo ld ade
model wi h a was e, was ewa e , and ecycling amewo k. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS. 165. DOI
(10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106376).
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23
ac i i ies. The ade balance esul s also show how accomplishing he SDGs, wi h
inc eases in inal demand, may ypically al e ade ela ionship wi h o he egions.
Realis ically, a egion may con inue impo ing inpu s as long as ade de ici s do no
hampe he economy.
Going back o ou esea ch ques ion, we ind he SDG goals physically achie able
globally. In e ms o mone a y indings, ou analyses sugges ha he wo ldwide SDG
a ge s can be achie ed wi h mode a e cos s ela i e o he o al global GDP, especially
in compa ison o he high es ima ed cos o inac ion (OECD, 2008; WB, 2009). Wi h a
ull accoun ing o he cos s incu ed, including hose o inc eased ac o uses, we es ima e
he yea ly global cos s o mee ing he SDG a ge s a sligh ly abo e US$100 billion,
adding up o US1.5 illion (in 2015 p ices) in ac o use o he pe iod o 2015-2030. The
esul is wi hin an o de o magni ude o he mos compa able wo k (Hu on and
Va ughese, 2016), which indica ed a o al igu e o US$3 illion o he same pe iod.
In his wo k, p oduc ion and ade mo e in line wi h minimizing global cos s. Regions
wi h inc easing co e age do inc ease ac o uses, bu no o he same ex en : some egions,
such as Sou h Ame ica, no ably inc ease ac o use cos s along wi h co e age, bu Sub-
Saha an A ica, which has he highes inc ease in co e age, does no ha e as la ge an
inc ease in ac o uses and ba ely incu s sca ci y en s.
We emphasize ou indings on sca ci y en s because, while he global economy is
g owing by mos measu es (popula ion, esou ce ex ac ion, p oduc ion, consump ion,
e c.), he plane 's geophysical esou ce base does no expand, and i s abili y o abso b
was es is al eady being es ed (Duchin, 2015).
Ou second emphasis is on in e egional ade globally and how i is impac ed by mee ing
SDG a ge s. Wi hin in e egional ade, geog aphic egions a di e en s ages o
economic de elopmen and ma e ial s anda ds o li ing connec o he ma e ial base ha
is composed o ac o s o p oduc ion, including includes wa e , land, labo , mine al
esou ces, e c. (Hubacek e al., 2016).
The wa e ea men sec o s ely subs an ially on impo able inpu s om sec o s in which
many de eloped coun ies a e compe i i e, including coal, pe oleum, coal p oduc s,
chemicals (e.g. U.S., E.U., Japan, also B azil, Middle Eas and No h A ica), machine y
and equipmen (China and E.U.), manu ac u es (e.g. China, India, B azil, and E.U.),
elec ici y (Russia) and Financial se ices (U.S.).
The new and eplacemen capi al in es men s equi e subs an ial inc eases in he
cons uc ion sec o , which subsequen ly equi es inpu s o e ous me als and mine als,
business se ices (in which e.g. E.U. is compe i i e), machine y and equipmen , anspo ,
This documen is he Accep ed Manusc ip e sion o a Published Wo k ha appea ed in inal
o m in:
Dilekli N., Cazca o I. 2019. Tes ing he SDG a ge s on wa e and sani a ion using he wo ld ade
model wi h a was e, was ewa e , and ecycling amewo k. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS. 165. DOI
(10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106376).
© 2019 Else ie B.V.
This manusc ip e sion is made a ailable unde he CC-BY-NC-ND 3.0 license
h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
24
and wood (in which Canada is he low-cos p oduce ). Following he cons uc ion sec o ,
he in es men s equi e signi ican ou pu s om he sec o s o machine y and equipmen ,
anspo (in which se e al de eloped egions a e compe i i e), elec onic equipmen (in
which i is Asian coun ies a e compe i i e); me als, manu ac u es and he
a o emen ioned se ices.
The U.S. and he E.U. showcase he ac ha mo e p oduc ion, expo s, and uses o
esou ces can be igge ed in a egion by changes in o he egions, esul ing, in his case,
in he de elopmen o wa e ea men sec o s in many de eloping egions. Inc eases in
ce ain sec o s o p oduc ion a e necessa y o build up he wa e pu i ica ion sec o , which
in u n inc eases p oduc ion in he o me sec o . In he case o he E.U., we ind
addi ional en s on medium quali y wa e , as well as o he esou ces, such as mine als and
imbe . In he case o U.S., we see inc eased en s on ene gy ac o s and capi al due o he
exhaus ion o cu en endowmen s. E en mo e no iceably, No h A ica and he Middle
Eas is he egion wi h he mos impo an di e en ial changes (sa e y managed wa e and
sani a ion s. no a ge accomplishmen ), and i also p o ides some o he inpu s and gains
p o i s om en s in ossil uels.
6. Conclusions
In his a icle, we demons a e uses o WTM/RCOT o was e managemen and ecycling
analysis and modelled he condi ions and ou comes o SDG a ge s on wa e and
sani a ion. We inc ease he “g anula i y” o he da a in he model o explici ly exp ess
was e inpu s, was e ou pu s, and ac o uses by he inal demand. We ep esen e u ns o
byp oduc s as aw ma e ials ( ac o s) as well as commodi ies using F and A ma ices. We
in oduce da a and me hods o accoun o cumula i e new in es men s, using k ec o s,
and capi al eplacemen , using R ma ices. We conclude ha , con i ming some exis ing
s udies, ou analyses no only ind physically easible o sa is y he SDG goals ega ding
sa e wa e and sani a ion by 2030, bu also ind mode a e cos s associa ed wi h mee ing
hem ac oss he wo ld.
The WTM enables a pa simonious ep esen a ion o he wo ld economy wi h ew
equa ions, a iables, and pa ame e s o acili a e ins uc i e in e p e a ions o a wide
ange o scena ios. Ou main mo i a ion in using he WTM is no o eplica e he exis ing
p oduc ion and ade pa e ns, bu o ex ac ui ul lessons om hem. Acco dingly,
despi e he e y impo an ole o cons ain s in p o iding mo e ealis ic baselines, he
baseline solu ion does no ep oduce esul s iden ical o he aw da a on pu pose, e en
hough we ind he solu ions o be consis en e.g. in e ms o he sha e o he ou pu o a
echnology in a egion in he o al o he ou pu o he egion, o in he o al ou pu o ha
echnology in he wo ld (See Table S2). As expec ed, simula ed ade olumes a e la ge
This documen is he Accep ed Manusc ip e sion o a Published Wo k ha appea ed in inal
o m in:
Dilekli N., Cazca o I. 2019. Tes ing he SDG a ge s on wa e and sani a ion using he wo ld ade
model wi h a was e, was ewa e , and ecycling amewo k. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS. 165. DOI
(10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106376).
© 2019 Else ie B.V.
This manusc ip e sion is made a ailable unde he CC-BY-NC-ND 3.0 license
h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
25
han he aw da a since a mo e e icien wo ld economy is assumed wi h he op imiza ion
o ac o u iliza ions.
We obse e ha he model cap u es he compa a i e ad an age ac oss he wo ld egions,
some o which a e a o ed in e ms o p oduc ion and ade due o hem being low-cos
p oduce s wi h la ge ac o endowmen s ha a e necessa y o such ope a ions. As pa
o ou pa simonious app oach o modeling, we a e no in e es ed in co e ing all
complexi ies and excep ions, such as he ine iciencies, a bi a y poli ical sys ems and
decisions, which condi ion economics empo ally bu no consis en ly and logically. Fo
example, in ou modeling e o he ole o inancial aspec s is basically no p esen , no
aspec s such as he ela ion o ade de ici s o he US wi h being he dolla he
p edominan ese e cu ency.
Fo u u e s udies, we plan o upda e ou analyses o e alua e he accomplishmen o o he
SDGs o add ess mo e comp ehensi e de elopmen goals wo ldwide. The compila ion o
he da abase has been a long-las ing p ocess wi h mul iple i e a ions, con inually
imp o ing he ealism o he baseline uns. Ne e heless, we u he plan o inc ease he
“g anula i y” o he da a in he WTM, so ha mo e was e inpu s, ou pu s, and sec o s a e
explici ly exp essed. In addi ion, we would like o in eg a e u he was e ea men and
ecycling echnologies, ounded on p ocess-based in o ma ion in he enginee ing
li e a u e o inc ease he p ecision and accu acy o modelling. These u he e o s would
na ow he gap be ween he ques ions o be ween heo e ical easibili y and ac ual
accomplishmen . Simila ly, we ind ha he e is oom o imp o ing he ep esen a ion
o dynamics wi hin he WTM/RCOT, o sol e se e al pe iods wi hin he same un,
conside ing u he aspec s such as planned capaci y expansion, also o he e olu ion o
mo e sec o s and o endowmen s. This wo k success ully inco po a ed ele an pa s o
household consump ion and i s ami ica ions in he wo ld economy. Fu he e o s a e
needed in u u e wo k o include impo an and ele an aspec s such as emissions om
he gasoline-based ehicles used by households.
Finally, u u e WTM based s udies can conside addi ional bene i s om mee ing SDG
goals by inco po a ing sa ings in heal hca e cos s and con ibu ions o he labo
endowmen s.
Acknowledgemen s
This wo k was s a ed ha ing suppo by US Na ional Science Founda ion CNH g an
#1115025, “Impac s o Global Change Scena ios on Ecosys em Se ices om he
Wo ld's Ri e s.” The au ho s acknowledge inpu om he p ojec eam and ha e buil
on p e ious model implemen a ions o Na haniel Sp inge , S ephen Le ine and Faye
Commen ed [ND3]: Mo e o discussions?
This documen is he Accep ed Manusc ip e sion o a Published Wo k ha appea ed in inal
o m in:
Dilekli N., Cazca o I. 2019. Tes ing he SDG a ge s on wa e and sani a ion using he wo ld ade
model wi h a was e, was ewa e , and ecycling amewo k. ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS. 165. DOI
(10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106376).
© 2019 Else ie B.V.
This manusc ip e sion is made a ailable unde he CC-BY-NC-ND 3.0 license
h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/
32
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