Decoupling between human development and energy consumption within footprint accounts

1
DECOUPLING BETWEEN HUMAN DEVELOPMENT AND ENERGY
CONSUMPTION WITHIN FOOTPRINT ACCOUNTS
O zi Akizu-Ga doki1,2, Go ka Bueno3, Thomas Wiedmann4,
Jose Manuel Lopez-Guede5, Iñaki A o6, Pa xi He nandez7, Daniel Mo an8
1 Uni e si y o he Basque Coun y (UPV/EHU), Depa men o G aphic Design and Enginee ing P ojec s,
Nie es Cano 12, 01006 Vi o ia-Gas eiz, Spain
2 Uni e si y o he Basque Coun y (UPV/EHU), Hegoa Ins i u e o In e na ional Coope a ion and De elopmen S udies, A da.
Lehendaka i Agi e, 81, 48015 Bilbao Spain
3 Uni e si y o he Basque Coun y (UPV/EHU), Depa men o Elec onics Technology, Bilbao, Spain
4 Sus ainabili y Assessmen P og am, School o Ci il and En i onmen al Enginee ing, UNSW Sydney, Aus alia
5 Uni e si y o he Basque Coun y (UPV/EHU), Depa men o Enginee ing Sys ems and Au oma ics, Vi o ia-Gas eiz, Spain
6 Basque Cen e o Clima e Change, Bilbao, Spain
7 Tecnalia Resea ch & Inno a ion, Azpei ia, Spain
8 No wegian Uni e si y o Science and Technology (NTNU), Depa men o Ene gy and P ocess Technology, T ondheim, No way
Abs ac
His o ically, he g ow h o ene gy consump ion has uelled human de elopmen , bu his app oach is no longe socially and
en i onmen ally sus ainable. Recen analyses sugges ha some indi idual coun ies ha e esponded o his issue success ully by
decoupling To al P ima y Ene gy Supply om human de elopmen inc ease. Howe e , globalisa ion and in e na ional ade ha e
allowed high-income coun ies o ou sou ce indus ial p oduc ion o lowe income coun ies, he eby inc easingly elying on
o eign ene gy use o sa is y hei own consump ion o goods and se ices. Accoun ing o he impo o embodied ene gy in goods
and se ices, his s udy p oposes an al e na i e es ima ion o he Decoupling Index based on he To al P ima y Ene gy Foo p in
a he han To al P ima y Ene gy Supply. An analysis o 126 coun ies o e he yea s 2000-2014 demons a es ha p e ious s udies
based on ene gy supply highly o e es ima ed decoupling. Foo p in -based esul s, on he o he hand, show an o e all dec ease o
he Decoupling Index o mos coun ies (93 ou o 126). The e is a educ ion o he numbe o bo h absolu ely decoupled coun ies
( om 40 o 27) and ela i ely decoupled coun ies ( om 29 o 17), and an inc ease o coupled coun ies ( om 55 o 80).
Fu he mo e, he s udy shows ha decoupling is no a phenomenon cha ac e ising only high-income coun ies due o imp o emen s
in ene gy e iciency, bu is also occu ing in coun ies wi h low Human De elopmen Index and low ene gy consump ion. Finally,
six exempla y coun ies ha e been iden i ied, which we e able o main ain a con inuous decoupling end. F om hese exempla y
coun ies, lessons ha e been iden i ied in o de o boos he necessa y global decoupling o ene gy consump ion and achie ed
wel a e.
Keywo ds: decoupling index; ene gy oo p in ; ene gy democ acy; ene gy ansi ions; consump ion based accoun s; sus ainable
de elopmen goals
Highligh s:
-Ene gy oo p in accoun s show an o e all dec ease o decoupling o mos coun ies.
- Six exempla y coun ies show a main ained decoupling o HDI om ene gy equi emen .
- Pe manen o empo a y decoupling has been de ec ed in 89 coun ies.
- Bo h high and low-HDI coun ies can achie e empo a y decoupling.
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Ac onyms
ADP
Absolu e Decoupling Poin
CBA
Consump ion Base Accoun s
DF
D i ing Fo ce s
DI
Decoupling Index
EI
Educa ion Index
EP
En i onmen al P essu e
GDP
G oss Domes ic P oduc
GFC
G ea Financial C isis – G ea Recession
GMRIO
Global Mul i Regional Inpu -Ou pu
HDI
Human De elopmen Index
IEA
In e na ional Ene gy Agency
II
Income Index
LEI
Li e Expec ancy Index
MF
Ma e ial Foo p in
PB
Plane a y Bounda ies
PBA
P oduc ion Based Accoun s
TFC
To al Final Consump ion
TPEF
To al P ima y Ene gy Foo p in
TPES
To al P ima y Ene gy Supply
1. In oduc ion
In o de o achie e a global sus ainable a use o ene gy esou ces, ene gy consump ion needs o espec
socially ai and en i onmen ally iable Plane a y Bounda ies (O’Neill e al., 2018). The in oduc ion
e iews he li e a u e o es ablish he equi ed ene gy o achie e de elopmen and de ine sus ainable ene gy
bounda ies. Wi hin his con ex , he decoupling phenomenon has been obse ed, in which ene gy
consump ion can be educed while inc easing coun ies de elopmen le els.
1.1 Ene gy consump ion equi emen s
The co ela ion be ween he ene gy consump ion and wel a e o a coun y has been a well discussed opic.
The e is gene al ag eemen in he li e a u e ha a ce ain amoun o ene gy consump ion is undamen al o
he economic p og ess and social de elopmen o a coun y (Wu and Chen, 2017). Ne e heless, he e is
s ill no consensus ega ding he minimum h esholds o ene gy consump ion needed o achie e accep able
li ing s anda ds. K ugmann and Goldembe g (1983) ound ha be ween 11.5 and 15.7 MWh pe capi a pe
yea was he cos o sa is ying he basic human needs. Subsequen ly, an economic minimum equi emen o
7.25 MWh pe capi a pe yea was iden i ied (G abl e al., 2004). Compa a i ely, Ma ínez and Ebenhack
(2008) iden i ied ha 9.3 MWh pe capi a pe yea (MWh·cap-1·y -1) we e necessa y o main ain he HDI
le el abo e 0.7, and 33.7 MWh in o de o upli he HDI alue abo e 0.9. Wi h 2005 da a, i was s a ed
ha an a e age consump ion o 16.7 MWh·cap-1·y -1 was enough o achie e a 0.8 HDI alue (S einbe ge
and Robe s, 2010). Subsequen ly, using he Li e Expec ancy pa ame e , Mazu (2011) de ec ed ha all
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na ions consuming abo e 40 MWh·cap-1·y -1ha e li e expec ancies nea 80 yea s. Simila ly, in 2012 i was
de ec ed ha ene gy consump ion o abo e 43.8 MWh·cap-1·y -1 does no necessa ily lead o a highe
Quali y o Li e Index (Pas en and San ama ina, 2012). Finally, S eckel e al. (2013) ound ha
27.8 MWh·cap-1·y -1 could e y likely main ain he HDI highe han 0.9.
1.2 Ene gy consump ion bounda ies
In o de o ma ch human ene gy needs o a ailable ene gy, cu en esea ch a emp s o unde s and how
much ene gy is accessible wo ldwide as well as which he physical and sus ainable Plane a y Bounda ies
(PB) a e (Rocks öm e al., 2009), in o de o p ese e he Ea h Sys em in a esilien and accommoda ing
s a e (S e en e al., 2015). The na u al limi s o global ene gy esou ces we e ecognised by he scien i ic
communi y o he i s ime in he 1970s (Meadows e al., 1972). Cu en ly, o ecas ing he peak-oil is a
cons an challenge o he scien i ic communi y (Pa gman e al., 2017). Cu en ossil- uel-based global
ene gy consump ion h eshold needs o be lowe ed, since is has been de ined as: en i onmen ally
unsus ainable (Inman, 2008), (IPCC, 2015), (Gies, 2017), socially un ai (So acool e al., 2016)
(Eisens ein, 2017), and u he economic losses and c ises ha e been o ecas ed (Hsiang e al., 2017)
(Fouque , 2017) (Inman, 2013).
In esponse o he knowledge o ene gy limi a ions, as well as an a emp o p omo e an equal oppo uni y
o he access o ene gy o all ci izens in he wo ld, in 1998 he Swiss Go e nmen p omo ed he “2000
Wa Socie y” (S ulz e al., 2011). The ini ia i e had he ambi ious a ge o educing 60% o he To al
P ima y Ene gy Supply (TPES) om 41 o 17.52 MWh·cap-1·y -1 (Hee en e al., 2012). Howe e , 18 yea s
la e , in 2015, he TPES o he coun y was s ill 34.46 MWh·cap-1·y -1 (In e na ional Ene gy Agency,
2015). Bu his igu e does no include he ene gy consumed in o he coun ies embodied in impo ed
p oduc s and se ices, which has been g owing in ecen decades (A o e al., 2016).
The shi owa ds enewable ene gy sou ces has been s a ed o be en i onmen ally indispensable (IPCC,
2015) and e en bene icial in economic o social e ms globally (Jacobson and Delucchi, 2011) (WWF,
2011) (Jacobson e al., 2015) (Teske e al., 2015) (Ga cía-Oli a es, 2016) and na ionally (Kucuk a e al.,
2017), as demons a ed by using he T iple Bo om Line me hodology (Slape and Hall, 2011). Acco ding
o op imis ic s udies, a 100% enewable ene gy supply o 139 coun ies could be possible wi hin 2050,
while ac ually main aining he global ene gy consump ion o 2012 (Jacobson e al., 2017). In his espec ,
e en i all he coun ies in he wo ld could be able o main ain 2012 consump ion le els wi hin enewable
gene a ion (13,267,620 k oe, In e na ional Ene gy Agency, IEA), main aining human popula ion in 2012
le els (7100 millions) each indi idual would ha e he equal igh o consuming a To al P ima y Ene gy
Foo p in o 21.9 MWh·cap-1·y -1 o ully enewable ene gy. Ne e heless, limi s o enewable ene gies
ha e been disco e ed. Fo example, aking in o accoun he land usage in he case o he sola esou ce,
has concluded ha a global ansi ion o domes ically p oduced enewable sola ene gy will be physically
un easible o main ain cu en ene gy consump ion le els (Capellán-Pé ez e al., 2017). O he esea ch has
conside ed a s ong limi in enewable ene gy pene a ion; in an op imis ic scena io, he o al ins alled
capaci y o enewables is o ecas ed o sa u a e a a ound 1.8 TW in 2030 (Hansen e al., 2017) and
maximum global p oduc ion capaci ies o a ound 145,000 TWh in 2050 (Capellán-Pé ez e al., 2014).
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Being awa e o hese limi s, Cullen e al. (2011) analysed he capaci y o educ ion o TPES h ough
sa ings and e icien managemen and concluded ha a 73% educ ion would be easible. A global ene gy
consump ion educ ion om 475 EJ·y -1 o 129 EJ·y -1 (based on he 2005 da a) was iden i ied as easible,
educing ene gy use om buildings, anspo and indus y (Cullen e al., 2011). This baseline would gi e
each ci izen he equal igh o consume o 4.7 MWh·cap-1·y -1. Ne e heless his educ ion capaci y has
been con as ed based on he di icul y o educing cu en ene gy consump ion le els; especially due o he
s ong co ela ion be ween ene gy consump ion and economic g ow h (So ell, 2015).
Las ly, due o he limi a ion o he Plane a y Bounda ies, has been ound ha gene ally he cu en esou ce
consump ion le el is 2 o 6 imes he sus ainable le el one (O’Neill e al., 2018). Thus, aking in o accoun
he p esen global ene gy consump ion (13,647,367 k oe in 2015, IEA) and assuming he posi i e condi ion
ha popula ion igu es will be main ained (7,355 millions in 2015, Wo ld Bank), ene gy consump ion
should be educed o be ween 3.6 and 10.8 MWh·cap-1·y -1.
1.3 Decoupling
Being awa e o he limi ed a ailabili y o ene gy ( enewable o less), he decoupling be ween ene gy
consump ion (and i s impac s) and he achie ed wel a e has been de ined as a “key issue” o each he
Sus ainable De elopmen Goals (SDGs) (UNEP, 2011), (UNEP, 2014). This issue es ablishes how
humani y should be able o main ain cu en li e s anda ds in de eloped coun ies and p omo e
de elopmen in low-income coun ies wi hou a ec ing he en i onmen al bio-capaci y o he Ea h. To
accomplish he decoupling challenge, echnological inno a ions (eco-e iciency and sys em inno a ions)
ha e been seen as he main le e ages (UNEP, 2011), (UNEP, 2014). As a seconda y aspec , he need o
encou age change in consump ion pa e ns, o educe he consump ion o esou ces while achie ing
imp o emen s in quali y o li e, has been iden i ied as an in luen ial ac o (UNEP, 2014). These objec i es
a e aligned wi h “Goal 7” o SDG (UN, 2015) whe e he sus ainable ene gy a ailabili y is ecognised as a
igh o all indi iduals, “Goal 10” o SDG, whe e equali y be ween coun ies is ecognised, and inally
“Goal 12” whe e sus ainable consump ion ways a e claimed.
Since 1970, he ela ion be ween consumed ene gy and gained GNP o GDP has been widely s udied and
has assessed he possibili y o decoupling (Bulla d and Fos e , 1976), (Meadows e al., 1972), (Nilsson,
1993). In 2002, an ex ensi e s udy was de eloped by he O ganisa ion o Economic Co-ope a ion and
De elopmen (OECD, 2002), whe e indica o s o measu e he En i onmen al P essu e (EP) om speci ic
D i ing Fo ce s (DF) we e classi ied, and he a ia ion a io be ween EP and DF du ing a ce ain pe iod
was de ined as he Decoupling Fac o (DF). Mielnik and Goldembe g (2002) analysed he decoupling
phenomena in 20 de eloping coun ies, concluding ha echnology imp o emen s due o o eign
in es men s could p omo e a decoupling. Decoupling was also analysed in he anspo a ion sec o ,
be ween consumed ene gy and p o oked emissions (Tapio, 2005). Diakoulaki and Manda aka (2007)
analysed he decoupling be ween emissions and indus ial g ow h wi hin he 14 EU coun ies, inding ha a
conside able e o has been done o decoupling. Decoupling be ween en i onmen al impac s (measu ed in
CO2eq emissions) and GDP has also been analysed in B azil (de F ei as and Kaneko, 2011), and be ween
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consumed ene gy and GDP in China (Zhang e al., 2015). Bo h s udies concluded ha echnology played an
impo an ole in decoupling in B azil, educing he ca bon in ensi y o he gene a ion mix, and in China,
inc easing he ene gy e iciency (ene gy in ensi ied e ec ). In China was ounded ha decoupling was also
a esul o he apid economic g ow h o he coun y (Wang, 2011).
A mo e ecen s udy, ha analysed he decoupling phenomenon in eigh coun ies, concluded ha
decoupling, is mo e p esen and cons an in de eloped coun ies (Wu e al., 2018). Wu e al. (2018) used a
speci ic Decoupling Index (DI) o Impac -GDP-Technology (IGT) in di e en coun ies wi hin GDP and
TPES, whe e his decoupling is clea ly obse ed in de eloped coun ies such as he UK, F ance, and USA.
In he s udy, absolu e decoupling and ela i e decoupling e ms we e used o clea ly dis inguish he
achie emen s o di e en coun ies.
Ne e heless, ela ing he decoupling phenomenon o echnological ad ancemen s o he de eloped
coun ies, has al eady been conside ed o e-e alua ion (Mo eau and Vuille, 2018). When in eg a ing
oo p in accoun ing in esou ce consump ion measu emen s, i was ound ha he decoupling be ween
economic achie emen s and en i onmen al impac s was “smalle han epo ed o e en non-exis en ”
(Wiedmann e al., 2015), due o expo ing p oduc ion chains o o he coun ies. Mo eau and Vuille (2018)
s a es ha decoupling is s ill unde discussion due o he “ i ual decoupling” concep . The “ i ual
decoupling” occu s when a de eloped coun y a gues o educe ene gy consump ion, while in eali y has
only expo ed he indus ial p oduc ion chains o o he less de eloped coun ies (Mo eau and Vuille, 2018),
hus na ional ene gy measu emen s a e no able o de ec his consump ions. As a esul , e en i decoupling
has been de ined as a necessa y ac o o achie e sus ainable goals, i is no clea which coun ies and when
each decoupling – o simply ha e expo high ene gy consume indus y o o he coun ies –, and whe he
he e is an impe us o a ain i .
1.4 Accoun ing o o al p ima y ene gy consump ion
In o de o de e mine decoupling, ene gy consumed by a coun y may be measu ed in di e en ways ha
a ec he esul s. The To al P ima y Ene gy Supply o a coun y (TPES) and he To al Final Consump ion
(TFC) ha e been he mos popula indica o s when measu ing ene gy consump ion, bo h de ined by he
(In e na ional Ene gy Agency, 2015). TPES is he sum o TFC and he losses o he ene gy ans o ma ion
and dis ibu ion sec o s (Goldembe g and Siquei a P ado, 2011). Howe e , TPES and TFC a e bo h
P oduc ion Based Accoun s (PBA), whe e ene gy consump ion is measu ed wi hin he bounda ies o a
coun y (Pe e s, 2008). In p esen day, he massi e ou sou cing o indus ial p oduc ion chains and se ices
(especially om high-income coun ies o low-income ones), causes he o al ene gy consump ion o high-
income coun ies appea s o be smalle , since pa o i is ou sou ced and accoun ed o in o he coun ies
(A o e al., 2016).
To add ess his occu ence, scien is s ha e used Consump ion Base Accoun ing (CBA). CBA was ini ially
used o Ca bon Foo p in measu emen (Munksgaa d and Pede sen, 2001), (Pe e s, 2008), (Pe e s and
He wich, 2008), (Kanemo o e al., 2012), (Ba e e al., 2013) using he Global Mul i Regional Inpu -
Ou pu (GMRIO) me hodology (Wiedmann and Lenzen, 2018). Foo p in accoun ing has become a well-
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es ablished me hod o ace he o al esou ce needs and en i onmen al impac s o a coun y’s consump ion
(Wiedmann e al., 2007), (Galli e al., 2012), (Hoeks a and Wiedmann, 2014), (Wiedmann e al., 2015).
Using he same GMRIO me hodology, he “Ene gy Foo p in ” concep was de eloped (A o e al., 2016).
This conside s he ene gy embodied in impo ed goods and se ices ha is consumed in o he coun ies,
and is de ined as To al P ima y Ene gy Foo p in (TPEF). TPEF allows eloca ing he ene gy accoun s
acco ding o he inal consume s.
I needs o be cla i ied ha he concep o Ene gy Foo p in has been used ei he o speci ic indus ial
p ocesses (p ocessing wi h he LCA me hodology) o o calcula e whole coun ies’ ene gy oo p in s (such
as in his esea ch, using he GMRIO me hodology). Gene ally, when he e m Ene gy Foo p in is used o
calcula e he ex e nal ene gy use o speci ic indus ial manu ac u ing o esou ce ex ac ion p ocesses, he
concep Cumula i e Ene gy Demand (CED) is used and Li e Cycle Assessmen (LCA) me hodology is
mo e equen (Röh lich e al., 2000), (Huijb eg s e al., 2010), (Puig e al., 2013). Ne e heless, in his
esea ch, Ene gy Foo p in speci ically e e s o he CBA ene gy consump ion o a de e mina e whole
coun y.
Se e al s udies ha e been de eloped in his ield, aking in o accoun di e en da abases (GTAP, WIOD,
OECD, Eo a and EXIOBASE) as well as di e en coun ies (Chen and Lin, 2008), (Wiedmann, 2009),
(Ma i enga and Rajemi, 2011), (Chen and Chen, 2013), (Heinonen and Junnila, 2014), (A o e al., 2016),
(Lan e al., 2016). The la es esea ch in he ene gy ield p io i ised compa ing he accu acy o esul s when
calcula ing he ene gy oo p in (Owen e al., 2017), (Min and Rao, 2017); o ecas ed u u e ene gy
scena ios (Kucuk a e al., 2017), (Kal enegge e al., 2017); as well as compu ed ene gy oo p in
calcula ions based in single yea s (Wu and Chen, 2017), (Chen and Wu, 2017), (Rocco e al., 2018), (Chen
e al., 2018), (Wood e al., 2018), (Zhang e al., 2018).
Despi e hese ad ancemen s, he decoupling phenomenon be ween he TPEF and subsequen achie ed
wel a e has no been add essed in a b oad way h ough –analysing con empo aneously se e al coun ies–
wi h he use o a Decoupling Index and Ene gy Foo p in accoun s. Gi en he p eceden “ i ual
decoupling” de ec ed in Swi ze land (Mo eau and Vuille, 2018), he possibili y o s udying decoupling in
se e al coun ies wi hin a oo p in accoun pe spec i e is especially ele an .
1.5 S udy aims
The objec i e o his s udy is o analyse unsol ed decoupling phenomena be ween To al P ima y Ene gy
Foo p in (TPEF) and achie ed wel a e (measu ed wi h HDI) among 126 coun ies om 2000 o 2014. The
p esence o he decoupling e ec in de eloped and non-de eloped coun ies has been s udied, in an a emp
o de ine any link be ween he le el o de elopmen in a coun y and he achie emen o decoupling.
Fo his pu pose, he TPEF o 126 coun ies has been calcula ed using CBA du ing 2000 and 2014. Wi h
hese da a, he Decoupling Index (DI) be ween consumed ene gy and achie ed HDI (de ined in
Me hodology sec ion) has been calcula ed, analysing he di e ence be ween TPES and TPEF esul s.
Secondly, TPEF based DI e sus gained HDI has been analysed and coun ies ha e been classi ied in ou
decoupling ypes. A his s age, exempla y coun ies ha e been iden i ied di iding he Decoupling Index in
ou yea gaps: 2000-2004, 2004-2008, 2008-2012 and 2012-2014, whe e main ained decoupling has been
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achie ed. Thi dly, coun y-based, ime se ies ha e been de eloped in o de o mo e accu a ely obse e he
decoupling ends o exempla y coun ies. Las ly, empo a y decoupled coun ies ha e also been de ec ed
in o de o unde s and which coun ies could achie e u u e absolu e decoupling ends.
Sec ion 2 o his pape illus a es he Global Mul i-Region Inpu -Ou pu me hod used. Sec ion 3 b eaks
down esul s di ided in he abo e de ined ou pa s and in Sec ion 4, he esul s a e discussed. Finally,
Sec ion 5 p o ides ecommenda ions and implica ions o imp o ed policy making.
2. Me hods and da a
2.1 GMRIO calcula ion
Global Mul i Regional Inpu -Ou pu (GMRIO) me hodology has been used o calcula e he To al P ima y
Ene gy Foo p in (TPEF) om he ini ial To al P ima y Ene gy Supply (TPES) ob ained om he
In e na ional Ene gy Agency (IEA). This has been accomplished using he 26 indus y sec o based Eo a
da abase economic in o ma ion o 189 coun ies (Lenzen e al., 2012). A mo e de ailed e sion o his
da abase, wi h 15,909 sec o s, is a ailable (Lenzen e al., 2013) bu , since he o iginal ene gy da a om he
IEA ma ches be e wi h 26-sec o e sion o Eo a, he o me has been conside ed mo e app op ia e o he
pu pose o his esea ch. I mus be cla i ied ha he Eo a 26 da abase es ima es he economic sec o ial da a
o ce ain indus ies in some coun ies, hus when using hese da a o calcula e he TPEF o a coun y, he
e o s al eady epo ed in economic ma ixes will be e lec ed in he calcula ed oo p in s. Acco ding o
Mo an and Wood (2014), a e pe o ming a sensi i i y analysis wi hin a ha monised ca bon oo p in
sa elli e accoun , di e ences be ween Eo a, WIOD, EXIOBASE and GTAP da abases a e smalle han 10%
in mos majo economies. Reducing unce ain y in MRIO analysis has been iden i ied as ele an wo k o
he u u e s anda diza ion o esul s (Rod igues e al., 2018), bu i is ou o he scope o his pape .
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Figu e 1: Global Mul i-Regional Inpu -Ou pu (GMRIO) s uc u e wi h he Eo a 26-sec o da abase (o ange) and TPES da a
om IEA (g een). The inal block in he o iginal e sion o Eo a epo s 6 ca ego ies o inal demand o each coun y. Fo he
sake o simplici y, o each one, we ha e agg ega ed he 6 ca ego ies by coun y in o one. Adap ed om Mille and Blai (2009).
A s anda d, en i onmen ally ex ended, demand-d i en inpu -ou pu model has been used (see Figu e 1) o
calcula e he TPEF o coun ies (Owen e al., 2017), (Oi a e al., 2016), (Lenzen e al., 2004), (Wiedmann e
al., 2007). In o de o ela e IEA TPES ene gy da a wi h he Eo a 26 economic da abase, a ow ec o o
sa elli e da a o ene gy consump ion o each indus ial sec o by coun y was c ea ed ( I) ollowing he
c i e ia indica ed in Supplemen a y Table 1. The TPES is he sum o ene gy consump ion by indus ies ( I, a
ow ec o wi h in o ma ion on he ene gy use o 189 coun ies and 26 sec o s) and he di ec use o ene gy
pe household ( H, a ow ec o wi h in o ma ion on ene gy use pe household in 189 coun ies). This
me hod, also known as he Leon ie equa ion, ollows he sequence o equa ions below. Fi s ly, he ene gy
consump ion coe icien pe uni o indus ial ou pu (c ec o ) has been calcula ed, whe e diag s ands o
he diagonaliza ion o a ec o , as:
𝐜 = 𝐟𝐈·(diag(𝐱))−𝟏
(1)
The echnical coe icien s ma ix (A) has been calcula ed, and om his in u n we a i e a he Leon ie
In e se (L):
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𝐀 = 𝐙(diag(𝐱))−𝟏
(2)
𝐋 ≡ (𝐈−𝐀)−𝟏
(3)
Nex , he o al (i.e. a scala ) indus ial ene gy embodied in he p oduc s and se ices demanded by coun y
(gI
) is ob ained using he s anda d demand-d i en IO model:
𝑔𝐼
𝑟 = 𝐜𝐋𝐲𝐓𝐎𝐓
𝐫
(4)
Whe e 𝐲𝐓𝐎𝐓
𝐫 is a column ec o (4915 x 1) ep esen ing he o al inal demand o goods and se ices by
coun y .
Finally, we ob ain he o al TPEF o coun y as he sum o he indus ial ene gy embodied in he p oduc s
and se ices (gI
) and he ene gy consumed di ec ly by inal use s (gH
).
𝑔𝑟= 𝑔𝐼
𝑟+𝑔𝐻
𝑟
(5)
In his s udy, due o he insu iciency o he ene gy consump ion coun y-based sa elli e da a, and he ex an
di icul ies o c oss- e e encing he esul s o MRIO analysis wi h HDI da a, we ha e howe e ob ained he
esul s o 126 coun ies ou o he o al 189 Eo a da abase coun ies.
2.2 Human De elopmen Index
The Human De elopmen Index has been he selec ed indica o o compa e he consumed ene gy wi h he
achie ed wel a e o a coun y; as his accoun s o he economic ad an ages bu also imp o emen s in
human well-being (Sen, 1992). Da a has been de i ed om UNDP (UNDP, 2015) and has been p ocessed
in o de o ob ain a e age ends, which ha e been used o alida e he inal conclusions o he p ojec .
HDI, shown in Equa ion 6, is he geome ic mean o Income Index (II), Li e Expec ancy Index (LEI) and
Educa ion Index (EI), based in he agg ega ion o economic, heal h and educa ion le el o a coun y
(UNDP, 2017).
𝐻𝐷𝐼 = √𝐿𝐸𝐼 ×𝐼𝐼 ×𝐸𝐼
3
(6)
2.3 Decoupling Index
The decoupling phenomena, has been mos equen ly g aphically obse ed (Wiedmann e al., 2015),
(S einbe ge and Robe s, 2010). Ne e heless, he Decoupling Index (DI) (Wang, 2011), (Wu e al., 2018),
is a c ucial pa ame e ha enables o compa e he achie emen s o a single coun y o e ime, o o
compa e di e en coun ies wi h each o he . The DI allows unde s anding how coun ies a e educing
en i onmen al bu dens (in his case ene gy consump ion) while inc easing hei de elopmen s a us. The
di e ence be ween ela i e decoupling and absolu e decoupling is especially impo an since he la e
implies an ene gy educ ion in absolu e e ms. The DIGDP has been a de elopmen om he well known
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Figu e 7: Pe cen inc ease o dec ease o ene gy consump ion by sec o (acco ding o TPEF accoun s) om 2000 o 2014 o
he six exempla y coun ies.
3.4 Tempo a y o pe manen decoupling
In his subsec ion, coun ies ha ha e mani es ed a empo a y decoupling in one o mo e yea s ha e been
iden i ied. Figu e 8 shows ha om he 126 coun ies analysed, aking in o accoun he TPEF alues, 89
ha e eached a pe manen o empo a y decoupling; om which 27 (as shown in Figu e 3) a e pe manen ly
decoupled and 62 ha e expe ienced a empo a y decoupling. Tempo a y decoupling means ha a leas in
one yea ha e been able o educe TPEF while inc easing hei HDI alue. The TPEF alue a which hese
coun ies ha e each he empo a y decoupling, is d as ically di e en among coun ies. Some coun ies
ha e been able o decouple wi h a TPEF in e io han 20 MWh·cap-1·y -1 (especially in A ica), whe eas
o he s ha e decoupled wi h a TPEF supe io han 180 MWh·cap-1·y -1. Achie ing a empo a y decoupling
– e en i less ele an han achie ing an a e age absolu e decoupling –, e eals he possible 62 candida e
coun ies ha could be able o each a main ained decoupling in he incoming yea s (Supplemen a y
Figu e 2 and Supplemen a y Figu e 3).
Figu e 8: 89 coun ies ha e been empo a ily o pe manen ly decoupled du ing he 2000-2014 pe iod acco ding TPEF accoun s.
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4. Discussion:
4.1 Gene al discussion:
In o de o achie e global ene gy jus ice (So acool e al., 2016) and gain a global equal sha e o ene gy
esou ces, mos de eloped coun ies should educe hei cu en ene gy consump ion (as explained
Sec ion 1). Ne e heless his educ ion does no imply necessa ily a educ ion o ci izen’s wellbeing. The
possibili y o mee ing a decoupling be ween ene gy consump ion and HDI allows coun ies o ansi
owa ds a low socio-en i onmen al impac ene gy sys em. Fu he mo e, his could enhance a ai sha e o
global ene gy esou ces among coun ies, boos ing in e na ional ene gy jus ice. In his s udy, six coun ies
ha e been iden i ied (FRA, HUN, ITA, JPN, GBR, ESP), which a e al eady expe iencing he decoupling
phenomenon in a main ained way. Un il he p esen day, mainly he “deg ow h mo emen ”, ecognised by
he scien i ic communi y (Weiss and Ca aneo, 2017), has made clea p oposals o educing esou ces
consump ion in o de o each be e global li ing s anda ds. The ene gy deg ow h p oposal, due o he
possibili y o inc easing de elopmen (wel a e) while educing ene gy consump ion, has he po en ial o
become an in e na ional ene gy ansi ion s a egy.
In o de o analyse DI, his s udy shows ha consump ion-based accoun s mus be used; since esul s a e
mo e comple e han adi ional TPES-based analyses. Only oo p in -based accoun s a e able o e lec he
cu en eali y o he in e na ionally globalised goods and se ices ma ke . The use o TPEF da a, ins ead o
TPES, b ings mos o he analysed coun ies owa ds a mo e coupled si ua ion be ween ene gy
consump ion and HDI. Calcula ions ha ha e been ca ied ou wi h TPES (Wu e al., 2018) a e only able o
o e an in e es ing bu pa ial pe spec i e o he ene gy consump ion decoupling, gene a ing a “ i ual
decoupling” in nume ous coun ies (such as AUS, CAN, LUX, CHE, e c.). This s udy shows ha oo p in
accoun s need o be aken in o accoun o a oid “ i ual decoupling”, no only in de eloped coun ies, bu
e en in non-de eloped ones. This is pa icula ly signi ican when de ining wo ldwide ene ge ically
exempla y coun ies o ollow.
As a posi i e esul o he esea ch, i has been no ed ha absolu e decoupling has been pe manen ly o
pa ially achie ed wi hin e y di e en ene gy consump ion and HDI alues by 89 coun ies (Figu e 8).
Absolu e decoupling has been achie ed om high-ene gy consump ion coun ies as QAT, ISL and LUX
(wi h a TPEF be ween 192-169 MWh·cap-1·y -1and a HDI be ween 0.83-0.89), o low ene gy consump ion
ones as YEM, SEN and NER (wi h a TPEF be ween 4-2 MWh·cap-1·y -1 and a HDI be ween 0.35-0.49).
This gi es an op imis ic nuance o he incoming necessa y ene gy ansi ion p ocess, meaning ha
ega dless o he ene gy in ensi y o a coun y, he e is oom o imp o emen o ene gy consump ion
educ ions in e e y na ional eali y and main ain o inc ease he HDI. Fu he mo e, i could be obse ed in
Figu e 4, shows ha mo e coun ies a e able o each an absolu e decoupling in he las pe iod (2012-2014)
han p e iously, showing a clea in e na ional endency o mo e owa ds lowe ene gy consump ion
eali ies.
This s udy shows ha acco ding o he analysed 126 coun ies, he e is much le o do o igge he
necessa y wo ldwide decoupling equi ed o each su icien ene gy consump ion educ ion in de eloped
coun ies, and boos he inc ease o HDI in less-de eloped ones o achie e he sus ainable use o global
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ene gy esou ces, wi h low socio-en i onmen al impac s. Ne e heless, posi i e pe o mances ha e been
ound, obse ing ha mo e coun ies ha e been achie ing impo an decoupling a ge s in ecen yea s,
especially be ween 2012 and 2014.
4.2 Exempla y coun ies:
Al hough achie ing a empo a y absolu e decoupling can equen ly occu , main aining his endency in he
long- e m, in o de o clea ly educe he ene gy consump ion o a coun y while inc easing i s HDI, has
been ound o be challenging. F om he 126 coun ies analysed, only 27 ha e shown an a e age absolu e
decoupling du ing he o al yea gap o 2000-2014 (Figu e 3), and only 6 o hem, wi hin he HDI abo e
0.8, ha e shown a main ained absolu e decoupling du ing he las h ee yea gaps, 2004-2008, 2008-2012
and 2012-2014 (Figu e 4 and Figu e 5). These exempla y coun ies show h ee ele an aspec s.
Fi s ly, he g adual ene gy educ ion is a cons an end in mos o hem, a oiding d as ic educ ions.
Ene gy educ ions ha e been achie ed inside he coun y bounda ies (mos p obably due o he ene gy
e iciency achie emen s: eco-e iciency and inno a ion), bu also wi hin he impo ed ene gy embodied in
goods and se ices. Reached ene gy educ ions du ing 14 yea s ha e been signi ican , and h ee o he
exempla y coun ies (ESP, ITA, HUN) ha e been able o educe a ound 30% o hei TPEF. Acco ding o
he sec o ial dis ibu ion o educ ions, achie emen s in he elec ic p oduc ion sec o ha e been no o ious
in all coun ies, as well as in he pe ochemical sec o . Reduc ions in he cons uc ion and he household
sec o s a e also ele an in some coun ies. Thus, i is no iced ha each coun y has i s own s a egy o
educe he TPEF, educing ene gy consump ion om signi ican ly di e en economic sec o s.
Secondly, he GFC has posi i ely impac ed in he exempla y coun ies ega ding his scope, p o oking
ul e io educ ions in hei ene gy consump ion while s ill inc easing he HDI alue. This allows ci izens o
unde s and he c isis as an oppo uni y (Schneide e al., 2010).
Finally, all o he exempla y coun ies a e ne embodied ene gy impo e s. This should be aken in o
accoun o imp o e in e na ional ela ions p omo ing he suppo o mos indus ial p oduce coun ies,
enhancing hei inc ease o HDI while main aining low le els o hei pe capi a ene gy consump ion. The
ecogni ion o he cu en impo s o embodied ene gy in goods and se ices is a key ac o . Impo e
coun ies need o be awa e o he p i ileges ha his b ings o hem (such as o allow an easie decoupling
be ween ene gy consump ion and wel a e), and ai economic paymen s o impo ed embodied ene gy
should be p omo ed. Compensa ion sys ems, such as he ones de eloped in ca bon oo p in s in global scale
(Pezzey and Jo zo, 2013), (Meng e al., 2018) o in ecosys em se ices in a mo e na ional o egional scale
(Reed e al., 2017), could be implemen ed in he ene gy ield.
5. Conclusions and Policy Implica ions
In he cu en globalised ma ke , wi h la ge amoun o goods and se ice exchanges among coun ies, i is
compulso y o ake in o accoun he ene gy embodied in ade i an in eg al ene gy consump ion diagnosis
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is desi ed. Coun ies can no longe unde s and hei ene gy consump ion accoun s using TPES da a di ec ly
d awn om he In e na ional Ene gy Agency da abase. Ins ead, TPES da a needs o be complemen ed wi h
TPEF calcula ions in o de o a oid dis o ion o ene gy consump ion pa e n eali ies.
Exempla y coun ies, he ones ha ha e achie ed a main ained decoupling among consumed ene gy and
imp o ed HDI, ha e de eloped i ia g adual ene gy consump ion educ ions as opposed o d as ic ene gy
consump ion educ ion pe o mances. These educ ions could be achie ed by wo pa hs; i s ly by
enhancing he in eg a ion o eco-e iciency and inno a ion ools wi hin na ional bounda ies (in pa icula
wi hin he elec ici y, pe ochemical, cons uc ion and p i a e houses sec o s), and secondly ia suppo ing
he educ ion o impo ed ene gy embodied in p oduc s and se ices om o he coun ies which in u n
igge s ene gy so e eign y. Despi e he lack o clea ly iden i ied en i onmen ally sus ainable and socially
ai global ene gy h eshold, mos de eloping coun ies seem o ha e a ma gin o inc ease hei ene gy
consump ion in o de o inc ease hei HDI. Howe e , his inc ease could be suppo ed and expedi ed by
in e na ional collabo a ions wi h ene gy e icien s anda ds ac oss de eloping coun ies h ough Kyo o
P o ocol- ype clean de elopmen mechanisms o echnology ans e s (UNEP, 1998).
The s udy shows, ha economic c ises a e an oppo uni y o gain decoupling. In all o he six exempla y
coun ies, he 2009 Global Financial C isis (GFC) enhanced hei ene gy educ ion while inc easing hei
HDI.
Ne embodied-ene gy expo e coun ies ha e been ound especially weak when ying o achie e a
decoupling eali y; hus, in o de o c ea e a global absolu e decoupling end, solida i y owa ds and
collabo a ion wi h ne embodied-ene gy expo e coun ies should be inc eased. Building upon he
ecogni ion o ade in embodied ene gy ade and on quan i a i e in o ma ion on ene gy oo p in s,
in e na ional coope a ion on educing global ene gy demand should be designed.
This wo k con ibu es o “Goal 7” o SDG (UN, 2015), p omo ing insigh s o each a sus ainable ene gy
sys em o all indi iduals. The wo k also con ibu es owa ds he achie emen o “Goal 10” o he SDG,
os e ing he educ ion o inequali y among coun ies, and “Goal 12”, enhancing sus ainable consump ion
pa e ns.
6. Acknowledgmen
The au ho s a e g a e ul o he p o ided unding o he E asmus Pan he P og amme coo dina ed by
Wa saw Uni e si y o Technology, and backed by he Sus ainabili y Assessmen P og am (SAP) o he
Uni e si y o New Sou h Wales (UNSW Sydney) and he Uni e si y o he Basque Coun y (UPV/EHU),
o make he 10-mon h esea ch s ay possible a UNSW Sydney, whe e his pape has been de eloped
(G an e e ence: E asmus Pan he PN/TG1/UNSW/PhD/02/2017). The au ho s also hank Hung Pham o
his pa ience and suppo in Ma lab coding. The au ho s hank James Hayes, Ma ian A an e and An hony
Coxe e o hei aluable con ibu ion as p o essional English edi o s wi hin his p ojec .
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Supplemen a y Figu e 3: The 89 empo a ily and pe manen ly decoupled coun ies (exempla y coun ies in black
lines) o de ed om le o igh acco ding he highe TPEF whe e decoupling was achie ed (in e ical axis Y1). A
line has been aced in he alue o 0.8 HDI, which is unde s ood as he bo om limi o high HDI acco ding o UNDP.
To he le o he line, coun ies wi h a highe decoupling han 35 MWh·cap-1·y -1 can be ound. In o de o be e
unde s and he cha ac e is ics o he 89 decoupling coun ies, HDI da a (in e ical axis Y2) has been disagg ega ed
in Li e Expec ancy Index (LEI, pu ple), Educa ion Index (EI, g een) and Income Index (II, o ange). I is obse ed ha
while he high II le els o high-TPEF consume coun ies a e able o main ain hei decoupling end, he low EI
(below 0.7) o some high-TPEF coun ies migh make sus ained decoupling di icul . On he con a y, high LEI o
some medium-low TPEF coun ies migh suppo hei capaci y o achie e sus ained decoupling.
Supplemen a y Table 2: Decoupling Index alues (DITPES and DITPEF ) du ing he 2000-2014 yea pe iod by
coun y and coun y codes. Coun ies ha e been lis ed om g ea es o lowes acco ding hei DITPEF , om he mos
absolu ely decoupled coun y o he mos coupled ones, and las ly he ones whe e HDI has been educed. In he
igh mos column, Hidden Ene gy Flow (HEF) has been added (HEF =TPEF/TPES-1), which shows he pe cen age
inc ease/ educ ion o ene gy ha coun ies display i impo ed ene gy embodied in goods and se ices is aken in o
accoun (Akizu e al., 2017). Absolu e decoupled coun ies ha e been iden i ied in g een, ela i ely decoupled ones in
o ange, coupled coun ies in ed and coun ies whose HDI alue has dec eased in g ey. Nega i e HEF coun ies ha e
been ma ked yellow.
Coun y
Code
DI_TPES
(2000-2014)
DI_TPEF
(2000-2014)
HEF
(A e age 2000-2014)
Bah ain
BHR
162.89
168.73
-23%
Belgium
BEL
171.55
168.30
-3%
USA
USA
164.25
164.68
14%
UAE
ARE
167.92
163.76
4%
Jamaica
JAM
167.17
160.55
20%
Is ael
ISR
129.90
157.16
42%
UK
GBR
169.69
156.66
50%
Japan
JPN
160.31
156.56
30%
Cyp us
CYP
164.55
155.57
70%
I aly
ITA
162.12
155.33
30%
F ance
FRA
155.50
152.88
19%
Uzbekis an
UZB
150.93
150.73
-8%
Po ugal
PRT
153.92
150.12
34%
I eland
IRL
162.83
150.01
36%
G eece
GRC
152.34
148.79
62%
Spain
ESP
158.89
146.47
23%
Zimbabwe
ZWE
123.56
145.56
-13%
Jo dan
JOR
117.83
145.55
23%
Mal a
MLT
62.74
136.92
75%
Ge many
DEU
135.90
134.49
12%
Denma k
DNK
158.18
131.12
52%
Came oon
CMR
134.38
130.81
7%
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Philippines
PHL
127.84
130.25
3%
Sweden
SWE
153.51
129.10
5%
Hunga y
HUN
122.86
108.89
9%
Mexico
MEX
71.57
99.02
5%
Cuba
CUB
129.54
97.54
14%
E hiopia
ETH
85.58
86.77
-22%
Mozambique
MOZ
78.80
80.44
5%
Luxembou g
LUX
155.17
78.79
64%
Zambia
ZMB
78.74
77.99
3%
Dominican
Republic
DOM
143.77
77.40
8%
Bela us
BLR
42.21
74.48
-81%
Pakis an
PAK
77.69
73.36
-10%
Togo
TGO
61.03
68.92
1%
Nige
NER
66.41
67.22
16%
Tanzania
TZA
57.69
66.54
-2%
El Sal ado
SLV
112.57
64.53
23%
Uk aine
UKR
142.38
62.35
-21%
Slo enia
SVN
87.28
59.62
5%
Senegal
SEN
67.17
50.36
18%
Venezuela
VEN
71.32
49.65
-4%
Angola
AGO
55.48
49.18
5%
Finland
FIN
102.31
45.99
-8%
Aus ia
AUT
50.28
43.92
31%
Aze baijan
AZE
68.62
41.63
-8%
Kenya
KEN
56.34
40.76
11%
Nepal
NPL
49.53
40.51
7%
C oa ia
HRV
88.91
39.91
20%
DR Congo
COD
41.70
39.88
4%
Canada
CAN
125.90
39.09
-3%
Swi ze land
CHE
155.02
38.06
80%
Slo akia
SVK
136.21
37.87
22%
Bo swana
BWA
50.11
37.35
88%
Ghana
GHA
86.61
37.20
2%
Se bia
SRB
74.92
35.50
7%
Singapo e
SGP
50.11
35.44
131%
Cambodia
KHM
36.16
35.01
10%
Czech Republic
CZE
105.72
32.97
-1%
Nica agua
NIC
30.27
32.49
15%
Boli ia
BOL
17.18
32.04
-8%
Benin
BEN
26.15
31.40
7%
Myanma
MMR
41.17
30.82
-3%
Co e dI oi e
CIV
19.30
29.72
-14%
Tunisia
TUN
22.66
28.13
5%
Bulga ia
BGR
53.54
27.72
-21%
Ne he lands
NLD
150.31
26.95
13%
Pa aguay
PRY
51.74
26.63
29%
Mo occo
MAR
25.84
26.13
-7%
Tu key
TUR
28.35
26.01
26%
India
IND
25.10
25.79
-5%
Gua emala
GTM
24.04
25.68
12%
Sou h A ica
ZAF
27.54
25.25
-16%
Poland
POL
52.75
24.01
8%
Yemen
YEM
62.21
23.46
-1%
Indonesia
IDN
34.00
23.17
-10%
Romania
ROU
96.40
22.66
0%
Russia
RUS
34.40
22.25
-17%
Mau i ius
MUS
27.26
22.16
75%
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Sou h Ko ea
KOR
16.70
21.75
0%
New Zealand
NZL
60.55
19.53
8%
A gen ina
ARG
18.50
19.19
3%
Egyp
EGY
17.09
19.10
1%
Namibia
NAM
19.19
18.48
79%
Bangladesh
BGD
20.82
18.03
4%
Hondu as
HND
19.98
17.58
7%
B azil
BRA
14.56
17.51
1%
Colombia
COL
43.70
17.51
31%
No way
NOR
139.48
16.86
30%
S i Lanka
LKA
36.20
15.96
0%
Iceland
ISL
7.05
15.88
-9%
Panama
PAN
18.01
15.71
35%
Es onia
EST
16.08
15.52
5%
Albania
ALB
21.04
15.12
28%
Li huania
LTU
34.47
14.75
36%
Chile
CHL
24.35
14.68
-4%
Tajikis an
TJK
100.01
14.00
-1%
La ia
LVA
21.70
13.84
37%
Kazakhs an
KAZ
10.51
13.82
-14%
Alge ia
DZA
16.29
13.61
-32%
I an
IRN
14.54
13.23
0%
Ecuado
ECU
20.37
12.34
13%
A menia
ARM
15.28
12.33
18%
Saudi A abia
SAU
16.39
11.72
-8%
Cos a Rica
CRI
13.04
11.48
22%
Moldo a
MDA
45.37
11.25
-71%
Congo
COG
8.29
10.14
12%
Thailand
THA
10.85
9.90
-14%
Aus alia
AUS
140.74
9.80
13%
Mongolia
MNG
16.38
9.44
-14%
Oman
OMN
8.64
9.38
-25%
Vie Nam
VNM
10.21
9.28
-10%
Geo gia
GEO
9.84
9.21
35%
Hai i
HTI
8.99
9.14
3%
China
CHN
9.26
8.85
-14%
Ky gyzs an
KGZ
17.28
8.41
-2%
Malaysia
MYS
11.90
8.30
-28%
U uguay
URY
8.27
8.08
45%
Pe u
PER
8.04
6.57
17%
Qa a
QAT
83.22
5.63
-23%
Gabon
GAB
4.36
5.40
6%
Kuwai
KWT
138.41
5.15
13%
T inidad and
Tobago
TTO
5.93
4.28
-50%
I aq
IRQ
13.74
3.46
-7%
Sy ia
SYR
-171.36
-168.37
-13%
Libya
LBY
-145.06
-175.20
-42%
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