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Drivers and spatial pattern of post-socialist suburban development: A case of a second-tier Ukrainian city

Abstract

This study explores the drivers (explanatory factors) and spatial patterns of suburban development in Vinnytsia, a second-tier Ukrainian city, within the broader context of post-socialist urban transformation. The objective of the paper is to identify the drivers of suburban development of Vinnytsia as a second-tier Ukrainian city at the level of individual settlements and to uncover the general spatial patterns of its suburban area. Drawing on spatial features of suburbanisation including population change, housing modernisation, real estate market activity, and construction permits, the research reveals a distinct centre–periphery structure of the suburban area, asymmetrically distributed along the southwest-northeast axis. The suburban area comprises three quasi-concentric zones, each exhibiting varying levels and forms of suburban development. The first zone, directly adjacent to the city, is dominated by classical western-type suburbanisation, involving the influx of affluent residents and the emergence of low-rise and multi-storey housing. The second zone, stretching 15–20 km from the city centre, is characterised by housing modernisation rather than new construction, with commercial activity concentrated near major highways. The third zone, up to 30 km away, shows only partial transformation, mainly through the renovation of existing homes, which may be equally referred to both suburban and peri-urban development. Logistic regression confirms proximity to the central city as the most influential factor across all indicators, while landscape features and access to highways also contribute significantly. The research identifies asymmetries rooted in both natural landscape preferences and the spatial configuration of the city itself. Notably, administrative reforms have failed to align governance boundaries with functional suburban integration. The study concludes that suburbanisation in Vinnytsia reflects hybrid dynamics of post-socialist development, merging unregulated urban expansion with spontaneous and policy-driven modernisation. The findings offer insights for spatial planning in second-tier cities, advocating for more integrated approaches to suburban and peri-urban governance.

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Drivers and spatial pattern of post-socialist suburban development: A case of a second-tier Ukrainian city

Author: Gnatiuk, Oleksiy; Klymenko, Anna
Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.3897/jbgs.e157082
Source: https://zenodo.org/records/17255604/files/JBGS_article_157082.pdf
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D i e s and spa ial pa e n o pos -socialis subu ban
de elopmen : A case o a second- ie Uk ainian ci y
Oleksiy Gna iuk1, Anna Klymenko1
1 Ta as She chenko Na ional Uni e si y o Kyi , Kyi , Uk aine
Co esponding au ho : Oleksiy Gna iuk ([email p o ec ed])
Copy igh : © Oleksiy Gna iuk & Anna Klymenko
This is an open access a icle dis ibu ed unde
e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion
License (A ibu ion 4.0 In e na ional – CC BY 4.0).
Resea ch A icle
Abs ac
This s udy explo es he d i e s (explana o y ac o s) and spa ial pa e ns o subu ban
de elopmen in Vinny sia, a second- ie Uk ainian ci y, wi hin he b oade con ex o
pos -socialis u ban ans o ma ion. The objec i e o he pape is o iden i y he d i e s
o subu ban de elopmen o Vinny sia as a second- ie Uk ainian ci y a he le el o
indi idual se lemen s and o unco e he gene al spa ial pa e ns o i s subu ban a ea.
D awing on spa ial ea u es o subu banisa ion including popula ion change, housing
mode nisa ion, eal es a e ma ke ac i i y, and cons uc ion pe mi s, he esea ch e-
eals a dis inc cen e–pe iphe y s uc u e o he subu ban a ea, asymme ically dis-
ibu ed along he sou hwes -no heas axis. The subu ban a ea comp ises h ee qua-
si-concen ic zones, each exhibi ing a ying le els and o ms o subu ban de elopmen .
The i s zone, di ec ly adjacen o he ci y, is domina ed by classical wes e n- ype sub-
u banisa ion, in ol ing he in lux o a luen esiden s and he eme gence o low- ise
and mul i-s o ey housing. The second zone, s e ching 15–20 km om he ci y cen e,
is cha ac e ised by housing mode nisa ion a he han new cons uc ion, wi h com-
me cial ac i i y concen a ed nea majo highways. The hi d zone, up o 30 km away,
shows only pa ial ans o ma ion, mainly h ough he eno a ion o exis ing homes,
which may be equally e e ed o bo h subu ban and pe i-u ban de elopmen . Logis ic
eg ession con i ms p oximi y o he cen al ci y as he mos in luen ial ac o ac oss
all indica o s, while landscape ea u es and access o highways also con ibu e signi i-
can ly. The esea ch iden i ies asymme ies oo ed in bo h na u al landscape p e e enc-
es and he spa ial con igu a ion o he ci y i sel . No ably, adminis a i e e o ms ha e
ailed o align go e nance bounda ies wi h unc ional subu ban in eg a ion. The s udy
concludes ha subu banisa ion in Vinny sia e lec s hyb id dynamics o pos -socialis
de elopmen , me ging un egula ed u ban expansion wi h spon aneous and policy-d i -
en mode nisa ion. The indings o e insigh s o spa ial planning in second- ie ci ies,
ad oca ing o mo e in eg a ed app oaches o subu ban and pe i-u ban go e nance.
Key wo ds: Fac o s, pos -socialis ci y, subu banisa ion, Vinny sia
1. In oduc ion
The subu ban a ea is a dynamic en i onmen whe e u ban and u al a eas in e -
ac , leading o a undamen al ans o ma ion o adi ional se lemen sys ems,
changes in he social s uc u e o he popula ion, he eme gence o unique
Academic edi o : Chad S addon
Recei ed:
26 Ap il 2025
Accep ed:
21 Augus 2025
Published:
01 Oc obe 2025
Ci a ion: Gna iuk O, Klymenko A
(2025) D i e s and spa ial pa e n o
pos -socialis subu ban de elopmen :
A case o a second- ie Uk ainian ci y.
Jou nal o he Bulga ian Geog aphical
Socie y 53: 87–118. h ps://doi.
o g/10.3897/jbgs.e157082
Jou nal o he Bulga ian Geog aphical Socie y 53: 87–118 (2025)
DOI: 10.3897/jbgs.e157082
88
Jou nal o he Bulga ian Geog aphical Socie y 53: 87–118 (2025), DOI: 10.3897/jbgs.e157082
Oleksiy Gna iuk & Anna Klymenko: D i e s and spa ial pa e n o pos -socialis subu ban de elopmen
land-use pa e ns, and landscape ans o ma ions. Resea ching he d i e s (ex-
plana o y ac o s) o subu ban de elopmen helps iden i y pa e ns in hese
p ocesses, which is c ucial o e ec i e planning and managemen o u ban
and egional de elopmen . Unde s anding subu ban de elopmen d i e s a
he le el o indi idual se lemen s allows o iden i ying a eas wi h he highes
g ow h po en ial and hose a isk o socio-economic s agna ion, p edic ing he
load on anspo , social, and en i onmen al in as uc u e, p e en ing chao -
ic cons uc ion, i a ional land use, and u ban con lic s (McG ego e al. 2005;
Ra e z e al. 2013; Kubeš and No áček 2019). Ul ima ely, his con ibu es o he
balanced de elopmen o he ci y and i s subu ban a ea, as well as o speci ic
pa s o he la e .
In pos -socialis coun ies, subu ban de elopmen ypically di e s signi i-
can ly om he wes e n model, ep esen ed i s o all by he ypical US o Ca-
nadian subu bs (Beau ega d 2006; Kubeš and No áček 2019), due o di e -
ences in socio-economic and ins i u ional condi ions du ing he pos -socialis
e a (Bo én and Gen ile 2007; Lee maa and Tamma u 2007; Zaku ynska and
Sly ka 2016; Lozynskyi 2022). The legacy o So ie planning also plays a signi -
ican ole. Du ing he socialis pe iod, ci ies de eloped unde s ic ly egula ed
schemes ha did no accoun o ma ke -d i en mig a ion mechanisms and did
no allow classical subu banisa ion p ocesses o un old ully. Ins ead, summe
esidences (so-called “dachi”) se ed as a socialis su oga e o classic sub-
u bia (Lee maa e al. 2012). Howe e , wi h he collapse o socialism, con ol
o e spa ial de elopmen weakened conside ably, leading o chao ic subu ban
cons uc ion, he des uc ion o g een spaces, ag icul u al land, and aluable
na u al landscapes, as well as an inc easing imbalance be ween housing de-
elopmen and se ice sec o expansion (Kubeš and No áček 2019; Lozynskyi
2019; Ha di e al. 2020). This also esul ed in ising commu e mig a ion and,
consequen ly, inc eased p essu e on anspo in as uc u e, along wi h g ow-
ing social seg ega ion be ween a luen subu bani es and he less a luen local
long- e m esiden s (Gna iuk e al. 2021). Un egula ed subu ban de elopmen
can lead o a ange o social and en i onmen al p oblems, making his issue
pa icula ly c i ical o pos -socialis coun ies. In u n, success ul manage-
men o subu ban de elopmen equi es an unde s anding o he ac o s and
spa ial pa e ns o subu ban expansion in pos -socialis ci ies.
Unde s anding di e ences in subu ban de elopmen a he se lemen le el
is c ucial because each subu ban se lemen has i s own unique cha ac e is-
ics, including he le el o anspo connec i i y wi h he cen al ci y, access
o u ban in as uc u e, na u al ea u es ( e ain, p esence o wa e bodies,
o es s), socio-economic composi ion o he popula ion, economic cha ac e -
is ics, local he i age, and iden i y (Kok and Ko ács 1999; Man ey and Sud a
2019; Gna iuk e al. 2021; Lozynskyi 2022). This is pa icula ly impo an in he
con ex o a gene al end owa d decen alisa ion and he inc easing ole o lo-
cal sel -go e nmen in democ a ic coun ies, whe e many spa ial de elopmen
decisions a e made a he local le el. Thus, esea ch ocusing on a local le el
helps de elop a ge ed de elopmen policies ha conside he speci ic needs
and po en ial o pa icula a eas. S udying he explana o y ac o s o subu -
ban de elopmen a he se lemen le el is essen ial o ensu ing he balanced
g ow h o u ban egions. Fo pos -socialis ci ies, which ha e unde gone sig-
ni ican changes in go e nance s uc u es, economy, and demog aphics, such
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Jou nal o he Bulga ian Geog aphical Socie y 53: 87–118 (2025), DOI: 10.3897/jbgs.e157082
Oleksiy Gna iuk & Anna Klymenko: D i e s and spa ial pa e n o pos -socialis subu ban de elopmen
esea ch no only helps explain cu en ends bu also allows o o ecas ing
u u e de elopmen scena ios while minimising he isks o uncon olled u ban
sp awl (Slae and Ko ache 2014; We ne e al. 2022; Cocheci and Pe işo
2023).
The as majo i y o li e a u e on subu ban de elopmen in pos -socialis
coun ies ocuses on la ge me opolises, wi h only a ew publica ions explo ing
he peculia i ies o second- ie ci ies (Ma lo ič and Sedláko á 2007; Gna iuk
2016; Zaku ynska and Sly ka 2016; Repaská e al. 2017; Kubeš and No áček
2019; Ha di e al. 2020; Gna iuk e al. 2021; Ha di 2022; Kubeš and Ouředníček
2022; Ilie a e al. 2023). Mo eo e , despi e a signi ican shi in he pas de-
cade, Uk aine emains on he pe iphe y o knowledge p oduc ion ega ding
e en pos -socialis subu ban de elopmen (K yczka e al. 2025). By ocusing
on he second- ie ci y o Vinny sia, Uk aine, we aim o add ess his gap and
p o ide new insigh s in o subu ban de elopmen om a global u ban pe iphe y.
The objec i e o his s udy is o iden i y he ac o s in luencing subu ban de-
elopmen in Vinny sia as a second- ie Uk ainian ci y a he le el o indi idual
se lemen s, as well as o unco e he gene al spa ial pa e n o i s subu ban
a ea. A spa ial pa e n o subu ban a ea e e s he e o he geog aphic dis ibu-
ion and con igu a ion o subu ban g ow h, including he loca ion, densi y, and
s uc u e o esiden ial a eas, anspo ne wo ks, and land use ypes in ela ion
o he cen al ci y.
T adi ionally, he de elopmen o he subu ban a ea is closely associa ed wi h
he p ocess o subu banisa ion. In i s classical sense, subu banisa ion e e s o
he mo emen o p edominan ly a luen ci y dwelle s o he subu bs, d i en by
en i onmen al conside a ions – o escape he disad an ages o u ban li e and
seek a highe -quali y and mo e amily-o ien ed li es yle in g eene , mo e p i a e,
and socially exclusi e se ings. As a esul , classical wes e n-s yle subu bs a e
ypically low- ise esiden ial a eas ha emain highly dependen on he cen al
ci y o employmen , leading o inc eased commu ing (Hi 2007). Addi ionally,
subu banisa ion e e s o he s age o u ban egion de elopmen when he pop-
ula ion o subu ban a ea is g owing as e han ha o he ci y in absolu e o
ela i e numbe s (Osada 2003; Sýko a and Poso á 2011; K yczka e al. 2025).
Howe e , he obse ed o ms o ci y- o-hin e land in e ac ion wo ldwide a e
no limi ed o classical wes e n-s yle subu banisa ion. Ins ead, subu banisa-
ion is jus one o se e al p ocesses o ypes o subu ban de elopmen (Fo d
1999; Hi 2007; Ouředníček 2007).
In pa icula , ou ypes o pe i-u ban g ow h ha e been iden i ied based on
he o igin o mig an s, hei ela ionship o he me opoli an egion, hei mo i-
a ion, housing quali y and accessibili y (Fo d 1999; Fishe 2003): (1) subu -
banisa ion – mig a ion om he me opoli an cen e o he nea es subu bs; (2)
coun e -u banisa ion – mig a ion om he me opoli an cen e o mo e dis an
subu ban zone; (3) popula ion e en ion – main aining popula ion le els wi hin
he subu ban a ea; and (4) cen i ugal mig a ion – om he subu bs back o he
me opoli an cen e.
Depending on he social p o ile, o igin, employmen and main mo i a ion o
mig an s, he ollowing p ocesses changing he ace o subu ban a ea a e dis in-
guished (Hi 2007): (1) wes e n- ype subu banisa ion – he eloca ion o a luen
households om he me opoli an cen e o u al a eas; (2) u ban u alisa ion, o
de-u banisa ion – he mo emen o low-income popula ions om he me opol-
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Oleksiy Gna iuk & Anna Klymenko: D i e s and spa ial pa e n o pos -socialis subu ban de elopmen
i an cen e o he pe i-u ban a ea; and (3) u al u banisa ion – he mo emen o
low-income popula ions om he u al hin e land o he me opoli an cen e.
De eloping he amewo k o he di e en ia ed subu ban de elopmen ,
Ouředníček (2007) iden i ied se en mig a ion p ocesses based on mo i a ion,
connec ion o he cen al ci y, housing quali y, and he in luence o p e ious and
new places o esidence: (1) om he me opoli an cen e o newly buil hous-
ing (subu banisa ion); (2) om he me opoli an cen e o al eady exis ing old
housing; (3) om he me opoli an cen e o nu sing homes o he elde ly; (4)
om he me opoli an cen e o a second home (seasonal subu banisa ion); (5)
om he me opoli an cen e o dis an loca ions (de-u banisa ion); (6) wi hin
he subu ban zone ( angen ial mig a ion); (7) om o he pa s o he coun y
and ab oad (long-dis ance mig a ion).
Lozynskyi (2022) explici ly wa ns ha subu ban illages in Uk aine should
no be e e ed o as “subu bs” o “subu bia” since only a po ion o hem e-
sembles adi ional Ame ican subu bs. He sugges s ha he e m “subu bs”
should be applied only o hose pa s o subu ban illages o ci y ou ski s ha
exhibi cha ac e is ics ypical o Ame ican subu bs.
Alongside he concep o subu ban de elopmen , he e is a ela ed bu dis-
inc e m – pe i-u ban de elopmen . The la e e e s o he s uc u al ans-
o ma ion o u al a eas unde he in luence o he ci y, esul ing in he blu ing
o he bounda y be ween u ban and u al spaces, he o ma ion o a mixed u -
ban- u al landscape, and he in e wea ing o u ban and u al unc ions. Pe i-u -
ban a ea is gene ally de ined as an u ban- u al ansi ion bel ha expe ienc-
es a subs an ial impac om he ci y in social, economic, and en i onmen al
aspec s, making i signi ican ly di e en om adjacen u al a eas beyond
he ci y’s di ec in luence (Iaquin a and D esche 2002; McG ego e al. 2005;
A am 2009; Pio e al. 2011; Ra e z e al. 2013; Go e o e al. 2023; Zbo owski
e al. 2023). Exis ing heo e ical models o pe i-u ban a eas desc ibe g adu-
al cen e-pe iphe y ansi ion om he cen al ci y o he u al hin e land: he
u al-u ban con inuum model (Waugh 2000) dis inguishes subu ban a ea, u -
ban shadow and u al a ea, while he spa ial mo phology model (Thuo 2013)
ou lines such basic s uc u al elemen s o he u ban egion as inne and ou e
u ban inges, u ban shadow, and u al hin e land. Ci ies a e seen as cen es
o inno a ion di usion and poles o g ow h (Pe oux 1955; F iedmann 1972),
capable o signi ican ly ans o ming he subu ban a ea e en in he absence o
di ec popula ion mig a ion o o om i . Gi en he mul iplici y and di e si y o
o ms o subu ban de elopmen and app oaches o de ine his me e concep
(Fo sy h 2012), in his esea ch we o en canno clea ly dis inguish he ea u es
and esul s o pu e subu banisa ion om hose o pe i-u banisa ion, and hus
he e ms “pe i-u ban a ea” and “pe i-u ban de elopmen ” a e o en used in he
a icle, albei he main ocus is e ained on subu banisa ion.
The speci ic de elopmen ajec o ies o en i e subu ban a eas and hei in-
di idual pa s a e highly a iable and esis uni e sal sys ema isa ion, equi ing
a deep unde s anding o egional and local con ex s.
Fi s ly, he de elopmen o subu ban a eas is in luenced by he b oade so-
cial, economic, cul u al, and poli ical-ins i u ional con ex (Bo én and Gen ile
2007; Lee maa and Tamma u 2007; Lee maa e al. 2009; B ade e al. 2010;
Slae and Ko ache 2014; Lozynskyi 2022). The ac o s and spa ial pa e ns
o subu ban de elopmen depend on he combina ion and in e play o he p o-
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Oleksiy Gna iuk & Anna Klymenko: D i e s and spa ial pa e n o pos -socialis subu ban de elopmen
cesses (e.g. subu banisa ion, de-u banisa ion, coun e -u banisa ion) occu ing
wi hin a pa icula u ban egion, e lec ing mo i a ions o mig an s o and om
subu ban a ea.
Secondly, he ans o ma ion p ocesses wi hin subu ban a eas a y signi i-
can ly depending on he size o he cen al ci y. Mo e de ailed heo e ical expla-
na ion o his pa e n has been p oposed wi hin he amewo k o a di e en ial
u banisa ion heo y (Geye and Kon uly 1993; Kon uly and Geye 2003). I has
been demons a ed, including based on he Uk ainian ma e ial (Mezen se and
Ha yliuk 2015; Gna iuk 2017; Ha yliuk 2021), ha la ges ci ies a e as e
en e ing he subsequen s ages o u ban e olu ion, and subu banisa ion p o-
cesses a e mo e in ensi e, al hough he e a e nume ous de ia ions om he
gene al ule. The pa e ns o mig a ions (cen i ugal s. cen ipe al) and mo i s
o mig an s may also di e depending on he size o a cen al ci y/u ban egion
in he same coun y (Mezen se e al. 2019, 2020).
Thi dly, he as majo i y o subu ban a eas exhibi a clea cen e-pe iphe y
s uc u e wi h espec o he cen al ci y, subdi iding in o se e al zones ha
di e in he p esence, in ensi y, and p opo ion o a ious phenomena such as
esiden ial, comme cial, and indus ial subu banisa ion, as well as p ocesses
like subu banisa ion, coun e -u banisa ion, e c. (Lee maa and Tamma u 2007;
Pidg ushnyi e al. 2020; Siko ski and Szmy kie 2021). This s uc u e ends o be
mo e ex ensi e, p onounced, and polycen ic (wi h addi ional economic g ow h
poles as edge ci ies, e c.) in la ge me opoli an a eas (Sýko a and Ouředníček
2007; Ma cińczak 2012; Tanaś 2013; Pidg ushnyi e al. 2023) and mo e com-
pac , less di e en ia ed, and monocen ic in second- and hi d- ie ci ies (Ma -
lo ič and Sedláko á 2007; Zaku ynska and Sly ka 2016; Kubeš and No áček
2019; Ilie a e al. 2023). The in luence o local ac o s can in oduce signi i-
can asymme y in he de elopmen o pa icula sec o s o he subu ban a ea.
The e o e, he p esence o a gene al isible asymme y (Gna iuk 2016) o a
sec o al s uc u e aligned wi h he ou ing o majo anspo a e ies (Mezen -
se and Mezen se a 2017; Kubeš and No áček 2019; Gie czak-Ko zeniowska
2020; Uba e ičienė and Bu neika 2020; Dudek-Mańkowska e al. 2024; Ju kow-
ski e al. 2024) is a ai ly widesp ead phenomenon.
Fou hly, he in ensi y and na u e o subu ban de elopmen can a y signi i-
can ly be ween di e en pa s o he subu ban a ea and speci ic subu ban se -
lemen s. Resea ch on subu ban de elopmen in he P ague me opoli an a ea
demons a es a ia ions in spa ial pa e ns, he in ensi y o spa ial p ocesses,
and he social and economic s a us o new subu bani es (Ouředníček 2007).
Mezen se (2017) iden i ies i e ypes o subu ban spaces in Uk aine, di e ing
in hei su ounding en i onmen , he na u e o changes, housing ypes, and
li es yles: u al se lemen s a ec ed by subu banisa ion, new co age owns,
o me seasonal “dacha” se lemen s ans o med in o pe manen esidences,
g owing So ie -e a sa elli e owns, and a eas o in a-u ban subu banisa ion.
Man ey and Sud a (2019), based on he Wa saw Me opoli an Region se ing,
elabo a ed a ypology o subu bs based on six c i e ia: (1) he le el o neigh-
bou hood (spa ial scale), (2) he ime when he neighbou hood was e ec ed,
(3) spa ial in e ac ion wi h he nea es own/ci y, (4) he p e ailing ype o in-
es men , (5) s ee layou , and (6) access o he ci y cen e by public anspo .
Mo e o less simila ypologies o subu ban se lemen s ha e been p oposed
by di e en au ho s o di e en con ex s (Zębik 2011; Repaská e al. 2017).

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Oleksiy Gna iuk & Anna Klymenko: D i e s and spa ial pa e n o pos -socialis subu ban de elopmen
Fi hly, ex eme he e ogenei y o subu ban buil en i onmen s and li es yle
o ms is obse ed (Walks 2013; Dymi ow and S enseke 2016; Phelps 2017; Keil
2018), as well as coexis ence o di e en buil o ms and li es yles wi hin a sin-
gle subu ban se lemen (Mezen se e al. 2019; Gna iuk e al. 2021; Lozynskyi
2022), and, a imes, e en wi hin a single s ee (P o o a and Melnychuk 2025).
Gi en he a o emen ioned di e si y o subu ban a eas, we can iden i y ce -
ain gene al g oups o explana o y ac o s ha ei he p omo e o hinde he de-
elopmen o subu ban se lemen s. Despi e he global end owa d inc easing
unc ional au onomy and independence o subu ban a eas (Golubchiko e al.
2010; Ha is 2010; Pidg ushnyi e al. 2020), a signi ican  and in some cases
c i ical  dependence o e e yday li e in he subu bia on he cen al ci y pe sis s.
Wi h his in mind, wo ac o s a e ypically decisi e: he dis ance o he cen-
al ci y and he quali y o anspo a ion connec ions (Wolny and Ź óbek 2017;
Bogusz e al. 2024; Dudek-Mańkowska e al. 2024). Fo a luen subu bani es,
a key ad an age is he a ailabili y o as and high-quali y oad connec ions,
while o poo e popula ion g ea e impo ance is placed on subu ban ail and
bus se ices, as well as he ex ension o u ban public anspo ou es in o he
subu ban a ea. P oximi y o he cen al ci y is also impo an in e ms o loca -
ing la ge e ail and logis ics cen es in he subu ban a ea – hey mus be easily
accessible o u ban esiden s as well, which makes loca ions a he e y edge
o he ci y, wi hin each o public anspo , he mos a ou able (Ronse e al.
2015; Pei e -Smadja and To e 2018; Siko ski and Szmy kie 2021). In ecen
yea s, alongside anspo a ion connec i i y, he quali y o mobile communica-
ion and in e ne access has also become inc easingly impo an .
The s a us and popula ion size o a subu ban se lemen also ma e (Kubeš
and Ouředníček 2022). On he one hand, he la ges subu ban se lemen s
 pa icula ly sa elli e owns and u ban- ype se lemen s  ypically ha e mo e
de eloped economies (and he e o e mo e job oppo uni ies) and be e so-
cial in as uc u e, making hem mo e a ac i e o mig an s (Bogusz e al.
2024). In addi ion, due o he hie a chical na u e o spa ial inno a ion di usion
(Häge s and 1967), he de elopmen o comme cial in as uc u e in he la g-
es and mos p ominen se lemen s occu s mo e apidly (Ronse e al. 2015;
Pei e -Smadja and To e 2018; Pidg ushnyi e al. 2020; Siko ski and Szmy kie
2021; Kazako e al. 2024). On he o he hand, om he pe spec i e o a luen
subu bani es seeking p oximi y o na u e and social exclusi i y, ela i ely small
illages may be mo e a ac i e (Mezen se and Mezen se a 2017).
Impo an ac o s ha a ac po en ial esiden s o classical wes e n-s yle
subu bia include en i onmen ally a ou able li ing condi ions and pic u esque
landscapes, such as he p esence o i e s, lakes, and o es ed a eas (Mez-
en se and Mezen se a 2017; Uba e ičienė and Bu neika 2020; Bogusz e al.
2024). A he same ime, i should be no ed ha en i onmen al ac o s and
p oximi y o “unpleasan ” o haza dous acili ies do no always ac as limi ing
ac o s. Fo ins ance, co age owns in he subu ban a ea o Kyi  he Uk ainian
capi al  a e being buil in he di ec ion o he Cho nobyl Exclusion Zone, nea
land ills o solid and cons uc ion was e, and close o he T ypillia The mal
Powe Plan (Mezen se and Mezen se a 2017). Na u al condi ions also ma -
e as ac o s ha ei he c ea e mo e con enien condi ions o cons uc ion
( la e ain, low g oundwa e le els, s able soils, access o wa e esou ces),
o , on he con a y, hinde de elopmen ( ugged e ain, dense o es s, swamp-
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iness, lood o landslide isks, e c.) (Ma ushchyne s 2020; Uba e ičienė and
Bu neika 2020). This applies no only o esiden ial de elopmen bu especially
o indus ial and comme cial cons uc ion. The e o e, he same na u al condi-
ions may ha e opposi e e ec s on he de elopmen dynamics o a subu ban
se lemen depending on he local con ex .
Among o he d i e s, he image and epu a ion o a pa icula se lemen
mus be men ioned. Se lemen s wi h a well-de eloped local iden i y and land-
ma ks may expe ience highe de elopmen a es. Low land and p ope y p ices
also con ibu e o he de elopmen o subu ban a eas (Bogusz e al. 2024).
Howe e , in ensi e subu ban g ow h ypically leads o a su ge in p ices, mean-
ing ha o en p ices should be conside ed no as a d i e bu a he as a ea u e
o subu ban de elopmen . In some cases, he ac o o e hnici y ma e s oo
(Uba e ičienė e al. 2015; Š eda e al. 2016). Finally, legal and adminis a i e
se ings play an impo an ole, including local au ho i ies and hei policies
ega ding e i o ial de elopmen (Kok and Ko ács 1999). In pa icula , his con-
ce ns he de elopmen s a egy o he subu ban communi y (e.g., whe he o
in eg a e in o he cen al ci y o o emain a sepa a e communi y), spa ial plan-
ning and pe mi ing policies (such as whe he mul i-s o y, indus ial, o com-
me cial cons uc ion is allowed), and in es men policy.
2. Ma e ials and me hods
2.1. Case s udy a ea
The ci y o Vinny sia, a egional cen e in he sou h-wes o Uk aine wi h a pop-
ula ion o ca. 370000, has al eady been he subjec o subu banisa ion s udies
in Uk aine (Gna iuk 2016, 2017; Gna iuk e al. 2021). O e he pas decades,
Vinny sia has been among he Uk ainian ci ies demons a ing p onounced
popula ion g ow h in he pe i-u ban a ea, while he popula ion o he ci y i sel
has s agna ed o e en declined (Gna iuk 2017). This end indica es ha he
ci y and i s u ban egion ha e en e ed he subu banisa ion s age o he u ban
de elopmen li ecycle ( o di e en app oaches o he de ini ions o he subu -
banisa ion s age o u ban de elopmen see Osada (2003), Sýko a and Poso á
(2011) and Ha yliuk e al. (2021)).
Resea ch on housing mode nisa ion based on emo e sensing da a (Gna iuk
2016) sugges s ha he subu ban de elopmen o Vinny sia is in luenced by
se e al key ac o s: he aes he ic quali ies o landscapes, he con igu a ion o
majo anspo a e ies, di e ences in he unc ional p o iles o a ious pa s
o he cen al ci y, and geog aphical posi ion ela i e o o he adjacen ci ies.
The a ea in luenced by he cen al ci y was ound o ha e an a e age adius o
25 km, albei wi h dis inc spa ial asymme y. In pa icula , he highes a es
o subu ban g ow h we e obse ed in he sou h-wes e n and wes e n sec o s.
Two ac o s may be po en ially impo an o shaping his une en subu -
ban de elopmen a ound Vinny sia. The i s o hem is a pa e n o na u al
landscapes (Fig. 1). The landscapes o he wes and sou h-wes o Vinny sia
exhibi highe aes he ic appeal due o mo e dissec ed e ain, g ea e o es
co e age, and pic u esque g ani e ou c ops in i e alleys, in con as o he
p edominan ly la and hea ily cul i a ed landscapes o he no h-eas and eas
o he ci y. Thus, he landscapes in he wes e n sec o may be mo e a ac i e
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o subu bani es. Simul aneously, plain e ain and mo e e ile soils may a ou
he indus ial and ag icul u al de elopmen eas wa d o he ci y. The second
explana o y ac o may be spa ial s uc u e o he cen al ci y (Fig. 2). Vinny -
sia’s his o ical co e is loca ed in i s wes e n ( igh -bank) pa and con ains he
majo i y o he ci y’s educa ional and cul u al ins i u ions. The la ges esiden-
ial neighbou hoods a e concen a ed in he wes e n and sou h-wes e n pe iph-
e ies o he ci y. Residen ial and comme cial-se ice de elopmen s, o ien ed
owa d he end-use , di ec ly bo de he subu ban a ea in his pa o he ci y.
In con as , he no h-eas e n and eas e n ou ski s o Vinny sia ep esen an
almos con inuous bel o indus ial and wa ehouse zones, which o m an un-
desi able neighbou ing en i onmen o po en ial subu ban esiden s and hin-
de access o comme cial in as uc u e – o example, he nea es shopping
malls in he inne ci y. This may hinde esiden ial subu banisa ion, howe e , i
does no necessa ily impede indus ial and, o a lesse ex en , se ice-o ien ed
subu ban de elopmen (c . Uba e ičienė and Bu neika 2020).
Mo e ecen esea ch (Gna iuk e al. 2021) ocusing on Ah onomichne, a il-
lage on he u ban inge o Vinny sia (ma ked wi h he le e A in Fig. 1), has
e ealed a dominan wes e n- ype pa e n o pe i-u ban de elopmen . Speci -
ically, he majo i y o newcome s a e o me u ban esiden s, mos o whom
eloca ed om he cen al ci y. These newcome s end o be mo e a luen han
Figu e 1. The s udy se ing. Elabo a ed by he au ho s based on Google Maps (2024), Popula ion S a is ic o Eas e n
Eu ope (2024), and Denysyk GI e al. (2008).
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long- e m esiden s and ha e highe social s a us. Thei p ima y mo i a ions
o mo ing o subu bia include a quie e li ing en i onmen and be e heal h
condi ions, aligning wi h he b oade concep o u ban escape. Fu he mo e,
mos newcome s eside in newly cons uc ed housing. Howe e , some subu -
bani es in Ah onomichne epo ed mixed mo i a ion  u ban escape combined
wi h lowe housing cos s  indica ing ha he s eam o mig an s o subu bia is
no homogeneous: weal hy mig an s a e accompanied by indi iduals wi h ela-
i ely lowe incomes (Gna iuk e al. 2021). O cou se, Ah onomichne is only one
u al se lemen in he subu ban zone o Vinny sia, so he conclusions d awn
om i canno be uncondi ionally ex ended o o he pa s wi hin he subu ban
o , mo e so, pe i-u ban a ea. Ne e heless, i p o ides some gene al unde -
s anding o he subu ban de elopmen on he ci y’s u ban inge. The e o e, he
subu ban de elopmen o Vinny sia should be classi ied as subu banisa ion
(mig a ion om he cen al ci y o he nea es subu ban bel ) (Fo d 1999; Fishe
2003), wes e n- ype subu banisa ion ( eloca ion o weal hy households om
he cen al ci y o he coun yside) (Hi 2007), and cen i ugal mig a ion om
he cen al ci y o he subu ban a ea, p edominan ly o he newly-buil housing
(Ouředníček 2007).
Figu e 2. Spa ial s uc u e o Vinny sia: main mo phological and unc ional a eas. Elabo a ed by he au ho s based on he
Vinny sia Mas e Plan (Vinny sia Ci y Council 2021).
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ully a ibu ed o me hodological limi a ions (such as he unde es ima ion o
mode nised housing uni s in mul i-s o ey apa men buildings).
Gi en i s ex ensi e ch onological co e age, his indica o appea s o mos
comp ehensi ely e lec changes in he housing sec o o Vinny sia’s subu ban
a ea, cap u ing bo h he di ec p ocess o subu banisa ion and he mode nising
in luence o he cen al ci y. In pa icula , esiden s o subu ban illages end
o engage mo e ac i ely in he mode nisa ion o hei homes due o inc eased
income oppo uni ies om employmen in he ci y, imp o ed physical access
o goods and se ices ma ke s in Vinny sia, and emula ion o he li es yles and
housing aes he ics o mo e a luen subu ban mig an s (Gna iuk e al. 2021).
The spa ial pa e n e lec ed by he hi d indica o ep esen s a snapsho o
he eal es a e ma ke in he subu ban a ea o Vinny sia as o 2024 (Fig. 3C).
Again, we obse e he leading de elopmen o he u ban inge, a mo e dis an
zone cha ac e ised by a g adual decline in eal es a e ma ke ac i i y o back-
g ound hin e land le els, and a gene al asymme y along he sou hwes –no h-
eas axis, which is e iden wi hin bo h zones. Howe e , he simila i y be ween
he pa e ns is no comple e. In pa icula , a signi ican numbe o se lemen s
wi h a ela i ely high sha e o new o mode nised housing exhibi e y low eal
es a e ma ke ac i i y. This disc epancy may be a ibu ed o di e ences in he
empo al co e age o he wo indica o s, as well as o ins ances o housing
mode nisa ion unde aken by subu ban esiden s wi hou p ope y ansac-
ions – a phenomenon mo e ypical o he mo e emo e subu ban zone.
The analysis o he ou h indica o  he numbe o issued cons uc ion pe -
mi s (Fig. 3D)  e eals a somewha di e en spa ial pa e n. Fi s ly, he con-
as be ween he u ban inge and he mo e emo e subu ban zone is less p o-
nounced. Secondly, while he o e all spa ial asymme y pe sis s, i s na u e is
di e en : wi hin he u ban inge, he mos in ensi e de elopmen adi ionally
occu s in he wes e n di ec ion, whe eas in he mo e dis an subu ban zone, i
is obse ed owa d he eas and sou h-eas . O e all, he a ea o e iden u ban
in luence ex ends app oxima ely 15–20 km beyond he ci y’s ou e bounda y.
Thi dly, he size and s a us o he se lemen appea o ma e : owns and u -
ban- ype se lemen s s and ou wi h highe numbe s o issued cons uc ion
pe mi s, bo h wi hin he zone o clea u ban in luence and beyond i , a dis anc-
es exceeding 20 km om he ci y bounda y. This disc epancy can be explained
by he ac ha he p e ious indica o s e e ed exclusi ely o he esiden ial
sec o , whe eas cons uc ion pe mi s co e a ious sec o s o de elopmen . In
his case, i may be supposed he ole o small owns loca ed 20–25 km om
Vinny sia as seconda y cen es o mode nisa ion.
A deepe unde s anding o he si ua ion can be gained by analysing he unc-
ional a ilia ion o he acili ies unde cons uc ion o econs uc ion (Fig. 4).
Pe mi s o he cons uc ion and econs uc ion o housing we e issued in a lim-
i ed numbe o subu ban se lemen s, p ima ily hose loca ed nea he bo de
o Vinny sia. These a e he a eas whe e indi idual apa men buildings, en i e
esiden ial complexes, as well as la ge ownhouses and ga ed co age commu-
ni ies a e being de eloped. The same se lemen s eco ded he highes num-
be o pe mi s in he comme cial eal es a e sec o , indica ing ha comme cial
subu banisa ion a ound Vinny sia la gely ollows esiden ial de elopmen and
is o ien ed owa d se ing he subu ban popula ion (c . Ma lo ič and Sedláko á
2007; Pidg ushnyi e al. 2020, 2023). A he same ime, comme cial eal es a e

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pe mi s we e also issued in o he se lemen s ha a e no unde going mass
housing de elopmen . These a e mainly se lemen s loca ed nea majo high-
ways, whe e comme cial acili ies ca e no only o he local popula ion bu
also o ansien lows o clien s, including hose om he cen al ci y. In pa -
icula , au o se ice s a ions, logis ics cen es, and la ge chain supe ma ke s
a e h i ing in hese a eas (c . Dębińska and Pałubska 2021). I is also e iden
ha esiden ial subu banisa ion has igge ed he de elopmen o he social
in as uc u e in he subu ban zone, especially in he a eas closes o he cen-
al ci y. The ypical spa ial asymme y o issued cons uc ion pe mi s ac oss
he analysed sec o s is again obse ed, wi h he wes e n and sou h-wes e n
sec o s de eloping ahead o he no h-eas e n and eas e n sec o s. By con-
as , he eas e n sec o is mo e ac i e in he implemen a ion o in as uc u e
p ojec s – a likely explana ion being ha pa o his sec o belongs o he Vin-
ny sia u ban e i o ial communi y, which, since i s es ablishmen in 2020, has
ca ied ou signi ican municipal in es men s in he in as uc u e de elopmen
o subu ban illages.
The ques ion ha has emained unadd essed hus a conce ns he eason
o he o e all spa ial asymme y obse ed in Vinny sia’s subu ban a ea. This
asymme y ollows a dis inc and ecu en pa e n ac oss a ious indica o s.
Based on he ange o iden i ied empi ical ac s, bo h di e ences in he na u al
landscapes o he wes and he eas o he ci y and he spa ial s uc u e o he
cen al ci y i sel may con ibu e o he obse ed pa e n.
Be o e d awing inal conclusions on he ac o s in luencing subu ban de el-
opmen in Vinny sia, i makes sense o examine he esul s o he logis ic e-
g ession analysis (Tables 2, 3). The mos impo an ac o , by a ou weighing
all o he s in magni ude, is p oximi y o he cen al ci y. In pa icula , a dis ance
o less han 10 km om he cen e o Vinny sia ( e e ence ca ego y: >20 km) in-
c eases he likelihood o a se lemen expe iencing e y in ensi e subu ban de-
elopmen by be ween 14 imes (cons uc ion pe mi s) and 1430 imes ( eal y
ad e isemen s); a dis ance wi hin he 10–20 km ange inc eases hese odds
by be ween 6 imes (popula ion g ow h) and 43 imes ( eal y ad e isemen s).
A dis ance o a majo highway o less han 4 km p o ed o be a s a is ically
signi ican p edic o only o eal es a e ad e isemen s (bo h s ong and so
c i e ia, wi h odds a ios o 13.3 and 4.9, espec i ely), and o cons uc ion
pe mi s (only o he so c i e ion, wi h an odds a io o 2.7).
In se e al models, landscape ype also has a s a is ically signi ican impac .
Fo ins ance, se lemen s loca ed wi hin landscape ype 1 we e signi ican ly
mo e likely o all in o he ca ego y o hose wi h he highes popula ion g ow h
(odds a io: 5.6) and he la ges sha e o new o mode nised esiden ial uni s
(odds a io: 11.2). Simila ly, se lemen s wi hin landscape ype 2 had highe
odds o expe iencing s ong popula ion g ow h (odds a io: 3.9) and he highes
ac i i y o eal y ma ke (odds a io: 2.4). Howe e , he o es co e age ac o ,
ini ially hypo hesised as a p edic o o mo e in ensi e subu ban de elopmen ,
u ned ou o be la gely insigni ican ; in one o he models ( o es co e age
>20%, cons uc ion pe mi s, so c i e ion), i was e en a s a is ically signi i-
can p edic o o weake subu ban de elopmen (odds a io: 0.3). The wa e
co e age ac o was also mos ly s a is ically insigni ican , excep in one model
(wa e co e age 0.2–0.5%, new/mode nised esiden ial uni s, so c i e ion),
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Figu e 4. Absolu e numbe s o issued cons uc ion pe mi s and unc ional ypes o ( e)
cons uc ed objec s. Elabo a ed by he au ho s based on O icial Regis e o Planning
Condi ions and Res ic ions (2025).
whe e a posi i e ela ionship be ween wa e co e age and subu ban de elop-
men was de ec ed.
Rega ding he size and s a us o he se lemen , i was ound ha he small-
es illages (popula ion < 500) we e signi ican ly mo e likely o be among hose
wi h he highes sha e o new o mode nised esiden ial uni s. A he same ime,
small se lemen s (popula ion in be ween o 500 and 1000) we e less likely o
ha e la ge numbe o cons uc ion pe mi s issued. Fo ac o s such as p oximi y
o subu ban ailway s a ions and p oximi y o undesi able acili ies, no s a is i-
cally signi ican in luence on subu ban de elopmen indica o s was de ec ed.
Thus, he mos impo an d i e de e mining he in ensi y o se lemen de-
elopmen in he subu ban a ea o Vinny sia du ing he pos -socialis pe iod
is p oximi y o he cen al ci y. A he same ime, p oximi y o majo highways,
landscape ype, and se lemen size also play a signi ican ole. Conside ing
ha landscape ype appea s as a s a is ically signi ican p edic o only o
ce ain indica o s o subu ban de elopmen , i is likely ha he in e nal spa ial
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s uc u e o he cen al ci y (as p e iously discussed) also exe s an in luence.
A he same ime, no s a is ically signi ican e ec s we e iden i ied o o es
co e age, wa e co e age, p oximi y o subu ban ailway s a ions, o p oximi y
o undesi able acili ies.
Based on he mul i a ia e a e age o all ou indica o s ( ea u es o subu ban
de elopmen ), he subu ban a ea o Vinny sia exhibi s a cen e-pe iphe y s uc-
u e consis ing o h ee quasi-concen ic zones, asymme ically dis ibu ed
a ound he cen al ci y, wi h clea hin s o sec o al s a -shaped pa e n ela ed
o he main i e and mo o ways (Fig. 4). D awing on he indings o his s udy,
including ield obse a ions, and p e ious s udies (Mezen se e al. 2019; Gna-
iuk e al. 2021), hese zones can be cha ac e ised oge he as ollows.
Table 2. Bina y logis ic eg ession esul s (odds a ios): p edic o s o ‘ e y in ense’ subu ban de elopmen .
Independen a iables
(co a ia es)
Popula ion g ow h
(1989-2001), %
> 0.00
New/mode nised
esiden ial uni s
(2024), %, > 9
Cons uc ion pe mi s
pe 1000 esiden s
(2017–2024), > 2
Real y ad e isemen s
(Feb ua y 2025)
pe 1000 esiden s
(2001), > 25
Dis ance o cen al ci y cen e:
10–20 km ( e . > 20 km) 5.825* 33.843*** 7.146** 42.770***
Dis ance o cen al ci y cen e: < 10
km ( e . > 20 km) 36.987*** 774.700*** 14.220** 1430.736***
Dis ance o main mo o way:
< 4 km ( e . > 4 km) 1.845 2.632 3.380 13.345*
Dis ance o subu ban ain s a ion:
< 4 km ( e . > 4 km) 0.895 1.547 0.801 0.786
Fo es co e age:
10 –20% ( e . < 10%) 0.502 2.753 0.804 1.384
Fo es co e age:
> 20% ( e . < 10%) 1.144 2.022 0.941 1.659
Wa e co e age:
0.2–0.5% ( e . < 0.2%) 0.611 1.033 0.657 0.656
Wa e co e age:
> 0.5% ( e . < 0.2%) 0.689 3.598 1.030 3.590
Landscape: ype 1
( e . ype 3) 5.590* 11.282* 0.603 0.215
Landscape: ype 2
( e . ype 3) 3.870* 4.431 0.563 2.444*
Undesi ed objec : a leas 1 objec
in 5 km
( e . no objec s)
2.734 2.309 2.057 2.617
Popula ion (1989):
500–1000 ( e . > 1000) 0.660 1.522 0.700 0.967
Popula ion (1989):
< 500 ( e . > 1000) 0.541 9.692* 0.879 2.117
Cons an 0.010 0.000 0.029 0.000
O e all co ec p edic ions, % 89.2 89.9 83.5 93.0
Hosme -Lemeshow Tes (Sig.) 0.046 0.927 0.266 0.948
Nagelke ke R Squa e 0.327 0.604 0.323 0.723
No e: odds coe . = Exp(B); * p < 0.1; ** p < 0.01; *** p < 0.001.
Sou ce: Calcula ions by he au ho s.
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Oleksiy Gna iuk & Anna Klymenko: D i e s and spa ial pa e n o pos -socialis subu ban de elopmen
The i s zone includes se lemen s di ec ly adjacen o Vinny sia and is cha -
ac e ised by he highes in ensi y o subu ban de elopmen . The p ima y d i -
e o g ow h he e is classical wes e n- ype subu banisa ion. La ge clus e s o
new subu bs a e eme ging in his a ea, coexis ing wi h olde pa s o illages
and ownships, which a e also unde going subs an ial mode nisa ion. This is
he only zone whe e mul i-s o ey esiden ial cons uc ion wi h apa men blocks
is p esen . In some loca ions, he new housing me ges seamlessly wi h ha o
he ci y, making his a ea inc easingly esemble a na u al ex ension o he u ban
ab ic. Comme cial subu banisa ion is o ien ed, on he one hand, owa ds mee -
Table 3. Bina y logis ic eg ession esul s (odds a ions): p edic o s o ‘mode a ely in ense’ subu ban de elopmen .
Independen a iables
(co a ia es)
Popula ion g ow h
(1989–2001), %
> - 0.25
New/mode nised
esiden ial uni s
(2024), %,
> 5
Cons uc ion pe mi s
pe 1000 esiden s
(2017–2024), > 0
Real y ad e isemen s
(Feb ua y 2025)
pe 1000 esiden s
(2001), > 5
Dis ance o cen al ci y cen e:
10–20 km
( e . > 20 km)
3.737* 12.338*** 4.346** 41.191***
Dis ance o cen al ci y cen e: <
10 km
( e . > 20 km)
8.612** 189.357*** 3.349 269.738***
Dis ance o main mo o way:
< 4 km ( e . > 4 km) 1.723 1.566 2.731* 4.904*
Dis ance o subu ban ain s a ion:
< 4 km ( e . > 4 km) 1.156 1.120 1.151 1.015
Fo es co e age:
10–20% ( e . < 10%) 0.704 1.410 0.591 1.285
Fo es co e age:
> 20% ( e . < 10%) 0.684 1.463 0.263* 3.288
Wa e co e age:
0.2–0.5% ( e . < 0.2%) 1.784 3.695* 0.532 0.533
Wa e co e age:
> 0.5% ( e . < 0.2%) 1.055 1.684 0.976 2.148
Landscape: ype 1
( e . ype 3) 2.319 4.198* 1.014 0.450
Landscape: ype 2
( e . ype 3) 1.952 6.614** 0.523 1.042
Undesi ed objec : a leas 1 objec
in 5 km
( e . no objec s)
2.591 0.529 1.236 0.956
Popula ion (1989):
500–1000 ( e . > 1000) 0.710 1.588 0.172** 0.938
Popula ion (1989):
< 500 ( e . > 1000) 0.381 4.415* 0.082*** 1.630
Cons an 0.006 0.015 0.947 0.120
O e all co ec p edic ions, % 82.9 82.3 81.6 88.6
Hosme -Lemeshow Tes (Sig.) 0.758 0.625 0.483 0.921
Nagelke ke R Squa e 0.261 0.514 0.467 0.683
No e: odds coe . = Exp(B); * p < 0.1; ** p < 0.01; *** p < 0.001.
Sou ce: Calcula ions by he au ho s.
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Oleksiy Gna iuk & Anna Klymenko: D i e s and spa ial pa e n o pos -socialis subu ban de elopmen
ing he needs o Vinny sia esiden s (e.g., la ge e ail chains), and on he o he
hand, ollows esiden ial subu banisa ion by esponding o he demands o he
new subu ban popula ion. While he li es yle o esiden s in his zone is mos ly
subu ban, i inc easingly acqui es u ban cha ac e is ics (c . Gna iuk e al. 2021).
The second zone includes se lemen s loca ed app oxima ely 15–20 km
om Vinny sia’s cen e in sou h-wes e n di ec ion, na owing o 5–10 km in
he no h-eas e n di ec ion. Wes e n- ype subu banisa ion is also p esen he e,
hough la ge-scale clus e s o new subu ban de elopmen a e a e. A mo e sig-
ni ican ole is played by he mode nisa ion o exis ing housing s ock – ei he
by newcome s o by long- e m esiden s. Comme cial ac i i y is weak and gen-
e ally consis en wi h ypical u al de elopmen pa e ns in he egion, wi h he
excep ion o se lemen s along majo highways, whe e comme cial se ices
a e mo e o ien ed owa d se ing ansi a ic. The e e yday li e o esiden s in
his zone likely combines elemen s o bo h subu ban and u al li es yles.
The hi d zone ex ends up o app oxima ely 30 km om he ci y cen e in he
sou h-wes e n di ec ion and na ows o 15–20 km in he no h-eas e n di ec-
ion. The in luence o he cen al ci y is subs an ially weake he e, cen i ugal
mig a ion plays only a mino ole, and con inuous subu ban de elopmen clus-
e s a e la gely absen . None heless, le els o subu ban de elopmen  pa icu-
la ly in e ms o mode nising exis ing housing  emain abo e he backg ound
Figu e 5. Spa ial s uc u e o Vinny sia’s subu ban a ea.

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Oleksiy Gna iuk & Anna Klymenko: D i e s and spa ial pa e n o pos -socialis subu ban de elopmen
le els obse ed in he wide hin e land. The p e ailing li es yle in his zone is
u al, wi h isola ed subu ban elemen s. Comme cial subu banisa ion has no
eached his zone up o he momen .
4. Discussion
The spa ial ex en o pos -socialis subu banisa ion in Cen al and Eas e n
Eu ope (CEE) mos ly depends on he popula ion size o he ci y (Kubeš and
No áček 2019). This s udy con i ms he p e ious es ima e o he subu ban
zone o Vinny sia as ex ending app oxima ely 15–20 km om he ci y bound-
a y (c . Gna iuk 2016). A he same ime, he se lemen s ha can be clas-
si ied as subu bs acco ding o he c i e ia p esen ed in he li e a u e (Kubeš
and No áček 2019), a e loca ed wi hin 5–10 km om he ci y bounda y. When
compa ed wi h o he CEE ci ies (Ma lo ič and Sedláko á 2007; Czako á 2009;
Halás e al. 2012; Š eda e al. 2016; Wolny and Ź óbek 2017; Kubeš and Ouřed-
níček 2022; Zbo owski e al. 2023), i becomes e iden ha he subu ban a ea
o Vinny sia (wi h a popula ion o a ound 400000) co esponds in spa ial ex en
o ha o CEE ci ies wi h popula ions o app oxima ely 100000. This ela i e
unde de elopmen o Vinny sia subu ban a ea – a leas in e ms o esiden-
ial and comme cial subu banisa ion – can be a ibu ed o he la e onse and
lowe in ensi y o subu banisa ion p ocesses in Uk aine compa ed o o he CEE
coun ies (Mezen se 2017; Mezen se and Mezen se a 2017). Fu he mo e,
he spa ial ex en o Vinny sia subu ban a ea is signi ican ly smalle han ha
o Uk aine’s capi al ci y, a majo me opoli an cen e (Mezen se and Mezen -
se a 2017; Pidg ushnyi e al. 2023). A he same ime, i is sligh ly la ge han
he subu ban zone o I ano–F anki sk, a second- ie ci y in wes e n Uk aine
wi h a popula ion o app oxima ely 250000 (Zaku ynska and Sly ka 2016). This
is consis en wi h Vinny sia’s la ge popula ion and i s e iden ansi ion o he
subu banisa ion s age, in con as o I ano–F anki sk, whe e he cen al ci y
has con inued o g ow a a as e pace han i s subu ban a ea (Gna iuk 2017).
The subu ban a ea o Vinny sia exhibi s a ela i ely simple quasi-concen ic
s uc u e ha aligns well, in e ms o subu ban de elopmen in ensi y, domi-
nan p ocesses, and p e ailing li es yles, wi h exis ing heo e ical models o
pe i-u ban a eas. Fo ins ance, wi hin he u al-u ban con inuum model (Waugh
2000) he i s concen ic zone can be in e p e ed as subu ban, he second as
he u ban shadow, and he hi d as a u al a ea wi h a modes , ye non-negligible,
u ban in luence. Acco ding o he spa ial mo phology model o u ban egions
(Thuo 2013), he i s zone co esponds o he ou e u ban inge, he second o
he u ban shadow, and he hi d o he u al hin e land. Acco ding o Zbo owski
e al. (2023), he i s concen ic zone is a zone o subu baniza ion, aking a
o m o ypical u ban sp awl, while he second and hi d zones o m a zone o
pe i-u baniza ion/commu ing. Clea pa allels can be d awn wi h he cen e-pe-
iphe y spa ial s uc u e obse ed in o he ci ies o simila ank bo h in Uk aine
(Zaku ynska and Sly ka 2016) and beyond (Kubeš and No áček 2019; Ilie a e
al. 2023). A he same ime, as in many o he cases, he concen ic s uc u e o
Vinny sia subu ban a ea is dis o ed by sec o al asymme y. Unlike la ge me -
opoli an a eas, whe e his asymme y is ypically d i en by he o ien a ion o
adial oad and ail co ido s (Mezen se and Mezen se a 2017; Podawca e al.
2019; Kubeš and Ouředníček 2022; Pidg ushnyi e al. 2023; Dudek-Mańkowska
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Oleksiy Gna iuk & Anna Klymenko: D i e s and spa ial pa e n o pos -socialis subu ban de elopmen
e al. 2024; Ju kowski e al. 2024), in he case o Vinny sia, i can be p ima ily
a ibu ed o di e ences in na u al landscapes and he speci ic spa ial con ig-
u a ion o he cen al ci y i sel (c . Š eda e al. 2016; Zaku ynska and Sly ka
2016; Uba e ičienė and Bu neika 2020).
The spa ial asymme y o subu ban de elopmen obse ed in he case o
Vinny sia poses signi ican challenges o he in eg a ed de elopmen o he
ci y and i s subu ban a ea. Following he adminis a i e- e i o ial e o m o
2020, he leas de eloped subu ban se lemen s loca ed o he eas and no h-
eas o Vinny sia op ed no o es ablish independen e i o ial communi ies,
bu ins ead chose o join he Vinny sia u ban e i o ial communi y. Lacking
s ong sou ces o e enue o hei local budge s, hese se lemen s p io i ised
he bene i s o coope a ion wi h he ci y, pa icula ly in e ms o budge a y in-
es men s in in as uc u e de elopmen . In con as , se lemen s o he wes ,
no h, and sou h o Vinny sia  cha ac e ised by mo e in ensi e subu banisa ion
and s onge economic capaci y  chose o es ablish hei own sepa a e e i o i-
al communi ies, he eby e aining con ol o e hei local esou ces. As a esul ,
a pa adoxical and ine icien si ua ion eme ged in e ms o ci y-subu b go e -
nance: he subu ban se lemen s mos closely in eg a ed wi h he ci y (some
pa s o hem a e e ec i ely ans o ming in o de- ac o u ban neighbou hoods)
we e excluded om he bounda ies o he u ban e i o ial communi y. This is
pa ly he esul o he sho comings o he 2015–2020 adminis a i e- e i o-
ial e o m and he absence o an e ec i e mechanism o in e municipal co-
ope a ion wi hin u ban agglome a ions in Uk aine (Udo ychenko e al. 2017;
Pa lo e al. 2024). New challenges also a ise in he con ex o he Russian–
Uk ainian wa . In 2023, a modula se lemen o in e nally displaced pe sons
was es ablished in he u ban- ype se lemen o Vo ono y sia, loca ed sou h-
eas o Vinny sia. I can be assumed ha he choice o loca ion o he modula
se lemen was d i en by he “lowe p es ige” o his sec o o he subu ban
a ea. As a esul , he socio-spa ial con as be ween di e en sec o s o he
subu ban a ea is u he exace ba ing, while he esiden s o he modula se -
lemen u n ou o be maximally isola ed in spa ial e ms om he main bene-
i s o u ban li e compa ed o being loca ed in ano he pa o he subu ban a ea
(c . Ha yliuk 2024).
The iden i ied d i e s shaping he de elopmen o he subu ban a ea o
Vinny sia align wi h he wes e n- ype subu banisa ion p ocess: a luen subu -
bani es, mo i a ed by he pu sui o mo e com o able and highe -quali y li ing
condi ions in close p oximi y o na u e, eloca e om he cen al ci y while
main aining s ong ies o i . Depending on hei inancial capaci ies, hese sub-
u bani es choose mo e expensi e housing in de ached houses o ownhouses,
op o mo e a o dable apa men s in mul i-s o ey buildings, o in es in he
mode nisa ion o olde homes eads. The a ailabili y o social in as uc u e
and local employmen oppo uni ies in he subu ban a ea is no a decisi e ac-
o o such mig an s due o hei egula connec ion wi h he cen al ci y. This
si ua ion mi o s ha o pos -socialis second- and hi d- ie ci ies (Ma lo ič
and Sedláko á 2007; Kubeš and No áček 2019; Ilie a e al. 2023), bu con as s
wi h pos -socialis me opolises, whe e economic de elopmen and social in-
as uc u e a e among he key d i e s o subu ban g ow h (B ade e al. 2010;
Bogusz e al. 2024; Dudek-Mańkowska e al. 2024; Kazako e al. 2024). A sim-
ila con as exis s wi h Kyi , whe e clus e s o wes e n-s yle classical subu bs
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Oleksiy Gna iuk & Anna Klymenko: D i e s and spa ial pa e n o pos -socialis subu ban de elopmen
coexis wi h high- ise subu ban de elopmen s inhabi ed by a ious ca ego ies
o in-mig an s, including hose om o he egions o he coun y, who a e in
sea ch o cheape housing and a mo e a o dable li es yle in p oximi y o he
capi al (Mezen se and Mezen se a 2017; Mezen se e al. 2019, 2020). Since
a luen Uk ainians p ima ily ely on p i a e ehicles a he han he la gely un-
com o able subu ban ail se ices, and gi en he ela i ely limi ed spa ial ex-
en o he subu ban a ea, subu ban ail connec i i y p o es insigni ican o he
de elopmen o subu ban a eas in second- ie ci ies –unlike in i s - ie ci ies.
A he same ime, as in he case o Kyi (Mezen se and Mezen se a 2017),
he p esence o unpleasan o undesi able acili ies does no appea o hinde
he subu ban de elopmen o Vinny sia. Conside ing he en i onmen ally d i -
en mo i a ions o classical subu bani es, his phenomenon dese es u he
in-dep h in es iga ion.
Al hough he p ocess o subu banisa ion p ima ily esiden ial and, o a less-
e ex en , comme cial  plays a key ole in ans o ming he subu ban a ea o
Vinny sia, he ci y’s in luence on i s pe iphe y ex ends beyond subu banisa ion
alone (c . Zbo owski e al. 2023). We also obse e bo h spon aneous and in en-
ional mode nisa ion e ec s o he cen al ci y on subu ban se lemen s. The
spon aneous, un egula ed impac  ou side he di ec con ol o s a e o munic-
ipal au ho i ies  mani es s i sel h ough he mode nisa ion o housing by local
esiden s, hei u ilisa ion o he ad an ages o p oximi y o a la ge ci y, pa ial
adap a ion o e e yday p ac ices o u ban li es yles, and changes in land use
pa e ns (c . Gna iuk e al 2021). The in en ional in luence is exp essed h ough
s a e and municipal policies a ge ing he de elopmen o he subu ban zone
o i s speci ic pa s, as exempli ied by he in ensi ied in es men s made by he
Vinny sia ci y adminis a ion in o he anspo and social in as uc u e o he
eas e n sec ion o he subu ban a ea, which was inco po a ed in o he Vinny -
sia municipal e i o ial communi y.
Acco dingly, wha we obse e is no me ely subu banisa ion bu a he a mul-
iplici y o subu banisms and he g adual ma u a ion o a holis ic u ban- u al
con inuum wi hin he pe i-u ban a ea (Iaquin a and D esche 2002; McG ego
e al. 2005; A am 2009; Pio e al. 2011; Ra e z e al. 2013), whe e u ban, sub-
u ban, and u al a chi ec u al o ms, li es yles, and land-use p ac ices coexis ,
hyb idise, and luidly in e ac in a ying p opo ions (Waugh 2000; Thuo 2013;
Phelps 2017; Keil 2018; Uba e ičienė and Bu neika 2020; Lozynskyi 2022). Im-
po an ly, he same ac o s may ha e di e en , some imes e en diame ical-
ly opposed e ec s depending on he p ocesses and de elopmen aspec s in
ques ion, he balance o which may shi o e ime e en wi hin he same subu -
ban zone. Fo ins ance, a hilly landscape and high o es co e age – a ibu es
alued by a classical subu bani e seeking a pic u esque en i onmen – may be
i ele an o e en undesi able o a low-income mig an in sea ch o a o dable
housing wi h good access o he ci y ia public anspo a ion, o o an en e-
p eneu looking o a loca ion o es ablish a logis ics hub o indus ial acili y.
Al hough he de elopmen o he pe i-u ban a ea  and subu banisa ion in
pa icula  en ails nume ous social, economic, and en i onmen al challenges,
including o second- ie pos -socialis ci ies (Ma lo ič and Sedláko á 2007;
Slae and Ko ache 2014; Kubeš and No áček 2019; Lozynskyi 2019; Ha di e
al. 2020; Uba e ičienė and Bu neika 2020; Ilie a e al. 2023), hese p ocesses
can and should be managed (Kubeš and No áček 2019; Lozynskyi 2019; Ca -
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Oleksiy Gna iuk & Anna Klymenko: D i e s and spa ial pa e n o pos -socialis subu ban de elopmen
i elli 2021; Ha di 2022; Ilyniak 2024; Kazako e al. 2024; Pa lo e al. 2024).
Unde s anding he d i e s ha lead di e en pa s o he pe i-u ban a ea o
de elop in dis inc ways and iden i ying he spa ial pa e ns ha may eme ge
a di e en s ages o de elopmen will enable u ban planne s o design mo e
e ec i e spa ial de elopmen s a egies o subu ban spaces and hei in e -
ac ion wi h he cen al ci y (Lozynskyi 2019). Thus, scien is s, local au ho i ies,
eal-es a e de elope s and he local popula ion ep esen he p incipal bene i-
cia ies o he cu en s udy’s esul s.
5. Conclusions
The p esen esea ch con ibu es o a ela i ely unde ep esen ed body o li -
e a u e on second- ie ci ies in Uk aine wi h ega ds o hei subu ban/pe i-u -
ban de elopmen . I ad oca es o g ea e a en ion o smalle u ban cen es,
whose pe i-u ban ansi ions may di e ma kedly om hose o la ge me op-
olises ye a e equally c ucial o na ional spa ial de elopmen s a egies.
The subu ban de elopmen o Vinny sia demons a es he spa ial and unc-
ional complexi y ypical o pos -socialis second- ie ci ies. Al hough subu -
banisa ion – pa icula ly esiden ial and, o a lesse ex en , comme cial – plays
a cen al ole in eshaping he ci y’s subu ban a ea, his s udy e eals ha he
ci y’s in luence ex ends beyond me e popula ion eloca ion. A nuanced blend o
subu banisa ion and b oade mode nisa ion p ocesses is e iden , mani es ing
in bo h spon aneous and policy-d i en ans o ma ions.
The analysis o ou key indica o s  popula ion g ow h, housing mode nisa-
ion, eal es a e ma ke ac i i y, and cons uc ion pe mi s  enabled he delinea-
ion o h ee concen ic subu ban zones wi h a ying de elopmen al dynamics.
The dominan d i e ac oss all indica o s is he p oximi y o he cen al ci y.
Se lemen s loca ed wi hin 10 km o he ci y cen e a e mos likely o expe-
ience in ensi e subu ban de elopmen , consis en wi h he classical model
o wes e n-s yle subu banisa ion. Beyond his ange, housing mode nisa ion
becomes mo e p ominen han new cons uc ion, e lec ing a di e en se o
mo i a ions and capaci ies among esiden s. Addi ional ac o s in luencing
subu ban de elopmen include p oximi y o highways, landscape aes he ics,
and se lemen size. While o es and wa e co e age showed limi ed s a is ical
signi icance, hilly e ain and o es ed a eas appea o a ac weal hie subu -
ban mig an s. Con e sely, he spa ial con igu a ion o Vinny sia, pa icula ly he
indus ial zones on i s no h-eas e n inge, con ibu es o spa ial asymme y in
subu ban g ow h. These dynamics unde sco e he impo ance o bo h na u al
and u ban s uc u al ac o s in shaping pe i-u ban de elopmen .
Fo u ban planne s and policymake s, he esea ch unde sco es he need
o econcile adminis a i e bounda ies wi h ac ual pa e ns o u ban in luence
and mobili y. S eng hening in e -municipal coope a ion mechanisms, enhanc-
ing da a a ailabili y, and ailo ing planning s a egies o local socio-spa ial e-
ali ies a e c i ical o p omo ing balanced de elopmen . The indings suppo
he no ion ha subu ban de elopmen in pos -socialis se ings di e ges om
wes e n ajec o ies, displaying hyb id pa e ns ma ked by un egula ed sp awl
and selec i e mode nisa ion. This hyb idisa ion necessi a es lexible and con-
ex -speci ic policy esponses.
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Oleksiy Gna iuk & Anna Klymenko: D i e s and spa ial pa e n o pos -socialis subu ban de elopmen
Addi ional in o ma ion
Con lic o in e es
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E hical s a emen
No e hical s a emen was epo ed.
Use o AI
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Funding
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Au ho con ibu ions
Concep ualiza ion: OG. Da a cu a ion: OG. In es iga ion: OG. Me hodology: OG. Visual-
iza ion: AK. W i ing - o iginal d a : OG, AK.
Au ho ORCIDs
Oleksiy Gna iuk h ps://o cid.o g/0000-0003-1818-2415
Anna Klymenko h ps://o cid.o g/0009-0000-9571-8661
Da a a ailabili y
All o he da a ha suppo he indings o his s udy a e a ailable in he main ex o
Supplemen a y In o ma ion.
Supplemen a y ma e ial 1
Da ashee
Au ho s: Oleksiy Gna iuk
Da a ype: Da ashee
Explana ion no e: A Table in MS Excel o ma con aining he aw da a pe subu ban
se lemen o analysis.
Copy igh no ice: This da ase is made a ailable unde he Open Da abase License
(h p://openda acommons.o g/licenses/odbl/1.0/). The Open Da abase License
(ODbL) is a license ag eemen in ended o allow use s o eely sha e, modi y, and
use his Da ase while main aining his same eedom o o he s, p o ided ha he
o iginal sou ce and au ho (s) a e c edi ed.
Link: h ps://doi.o g/10.3897/jbgs.e157082.suppl1