De eloping na a i es o policy- ele an wa e -ene gy- ood-ecosys em
nexus pa hways: How global and Eu opean Union d i e s in e ac
Imen A a
a,b
, Ad i´
an Gonz´
alez-Rosell
a,b
, K is ina Go o ukha
c
, Be ny Bisselink
d
,
Ma ia Blanco
a,b,*
a
Depa men o Ag icul u al Economics, Uni e sidad Poli ´
ecnica de Mad id, ETSIAAB, A da. Pue a Hie o 2, 28040 Mad id, Spain
b
CEIGRAM, Uni e sidad Poli ´
ecnica de Mad id, Calle Senda del Rey 13, 28040 Mad id, Spain
c
E3-Modelling S.A., Kolonnens . 7, PO 10829, Be lin, Ge many
d
Unisys ems Luxembou g S`
a l, L-8070 Be ange, Luxembou g
ARTICLE INFO
Keywo ds:
Sus ainabili y pa hways
S o yline de elopmen
Pa icipa o y esea ch
Wa e -ene gy- ood-ecosys em nexus
Na a i es
Eu opean Union
ABSTRACT
The sha ed socioeconomic pa hways (SSPs) and ep esen a i e concen a ion pa hways (RCPs) we e c ea ed o
socioeconomic and clima e change assessmen s and a e widely used in global en i onmen al assessmen s.
Howe e , mapping SSP-RCP pa hways and policies o wa e , ene gy, ood and ecosys ems (WEFE) emains
elusi e. The e is unce ain y on how o in eg a e cu en Eu opean Union (EU) policies wi h clima e and so-
cioeconomic pa hways. To add ess ha unce ain y, we de eloped na a i es desc ibing possible policy- ele an
WEFE nexus pa hways un il 2050 by collabo a ing wi h a b oad ange o s akeholde s and expe s. By mapping
se e al SSP-RCP pa hways wi h EU-WEFE policies, h ee p ima y policy- ele an WEFE pa hways, namely
“Sus ainable De elopmen ,” “Weak Coope a ion,” and “Global F agmen a ion”, and wo ex eme pa hways,
“Emissions Neu ali y” and “Global Risk,” we e iden i ied. Fo each o hese pa hways, a na a i e was de eloped
explaining how global and EU d i e s in e ac . These na a i es in eg a e clima e, socioeconomic and go e -
nance d i e s. Findings show ha he Emissions Neu ali y pa hway would equi e a high le el o coo dina ion
be ween global and EU commi men s. A he o he end, Global F agmen a ion ep esen s a challenging u u e o
he EU, showing ha he global ends will condi ion he achie emen o EU-WEFE objec i es and highligh ing
he need o global coo dina ion. Beyond he esul s, hese na a i es con ibu e o a be e unde s anding o
WEFE nexus. Fu he mo e, hey can se e as a basis o explo e po en ial u u e de elopmen s and asses WEFE
nexus solu ions.
1. In oduc ion
Changes in clima e, en i onmen , and socie y pu p essu e on na u al
esou ces and gene a e nega i e consequences, such as mig a ion p es-
su e, ood p ice shocks, wa e sca ci y, and imbalances in ene gy ma -
ke s. These changes ha e been iden i ied as some o he majo challenges
acing he EU and h ea en wa e , ene gy, and ood secu i y, as well as
ecosys ems conse a ion. Fu u e de elopmen s o clima e, socioeco-
nomic and policy d i e s a e highly unce ain (EEA, 2019; Ma i e al.,
2023). Mo eo e , signi ican unce ain y s ill su ounds he con ibu ion
o EU policies o he secu i y o he wa e -ene gy- ood-ecosys ems
(WEFE) nexus.
Hence, unde s anding he in e linkages be ween clima e,
socioeconomic, and WEFE de elopmen s is essen ial o o esigh anal-
ysis and policy impac assessmen , and can con ibu e o o mula ing
mo e cohe en policies and solu ions o he WEFE sec o s.
In his s udy, we de ine a u u e scena io as a plausible and in e nally
consis en desc ip ion o how he u u e migh un old unde a se o
assump ions abou he e olu ion o key d i ing o ces and unce ain ies.
Fu u e scena ios a e ypically b oad, encompassing a wide ange o
possible de elopmen s and can be used o unde s and he implica ions o
di e en decisions and o suppo policymake s in designing cohe en
policies aligned wi h he desi ed goals (Mi e e al., 2020). The
scena io-building p ocess begins by de eloping al e na i e plausible
pa hways (Van Vuu en e al., 2017) and is ollowed by he na a i es
ha desc ibe hose pa hways and acili a e he de ini ion o quan i a i e
* Co esponding au ho a : Depa men o Ag icul u al Economics, Uni e sidad Poli ´
ecnica de Mad id, ETSIAAB, A da. Pue a Hie o 2, 28040 Mad id, Spain.
E-mail add esses: [email p o ec ed] (I. A a), [email p o ec ed] (A. Gonz´
alez-Rosell), [email p o ec ed] (K. Go o ukha),
[email p o ec ed] (B. Bisselink), [email p o ec ed] (M. Blanco).
Con en s lis s a ailable a ScienceDi ec
En i onmen al Impac Assessmen Re iew
jou nal homepage: www.else ie .com/loca e/eia
h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.eia .2025.108122
Recei ed 21 Augus 2024; Recei ed in e ised o m 11 July 2025; Accep ed 11 Augus 2025
En i onmen al Impac Assessmen Re iew 116 (2026) 108122
A ailable online 16 Augus 2025
0195-9255/© 2025 The Au ho s. Published by Else ie Inc. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license ( h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-
nc-nd/4.0/ ).
scena ios (Alcamo and Hen ichs, 2008).
In his con ex , a pa hway e e s o a sequence o se ies o e en s and
ac ions ha lead om he p esen o a speci ic u u e ou come o s a e,
con ibu ing o he ealiza ion o a pa icula scena io. Pa hways p o-
ide insigh s in o he dynamics and ac o s ha d i e he ansi ion om
he cu en s a e o he en isioned u u e, helping o iden i y c i ical
junc u es and ipping poin s.
A na a i e is a quali a i e desc ip ion o he ela ionships and dy-
namics o a pa hway, ocusing on he cha ac e is ics, gene al logic, and
de elopmen s unde lying a pa icula u u e scena io. They may include
d i e s o change, s o ylines, and de ailed desc ip ions ha make he
pa hway mo e unde s andable. In addi ion, na a i es can conside so-
cial and cul u al pe cep ions and he iews o s akeholde s. By high-
ligh ing syne gies and ade-o s, hey also help o o m ou
unde s anding o he wo ld, he po en ial u u e scena ios, and he ac-
ions equi ed o achie e hose u u es unde condi ions o unce ain y
(Ra en and Elahi, 2015).
The de elopmen o na a i es desc ibing al e na i e plausible
policy- ele an WEFE nexus pa hways equi es conside a ions o mul-
iple alues, iews, oices, and ensions be ween hem. Con as ing
pe spec i es on desi able sus ainabili y pa hways may be held by ac o s
om di e en WEFE sec o s (Aguia e al., 2020). Imp o ed comp e-
hension o he e ec s o global change ac oss scales and disciplines, as
well as enhanced abili y o s akeholde s o handle unce ain y and
complexi y, a e among he nume ous ad an ages o quali a i e na a-
i e de elopmen (Tompkins e al., 2008; O e os-Rozas e al., 2015;
S asse e al., 2019). E ec i e s akeholde engagemen in he scena io-
building p ocess can help inc ease he accep abili y and c edibili y o
he inal scena ios (Alcamo, 2001; Cabello e al., 2021). When ac o s
in e ac ace- o- ace, hey u ilise na a i es as a means o communica-
ion o es ablish expec a ions and sha e knowledge and poin s o iew
(Koch e al., 2023).
Na a i e de elopmen o al e na i e plausible pa hways has gained
impo ance o e he las decade because o i s wide applicabili y in
esea ch and p ac ice. In en i onmen al esea ch, na a i es ha e been
used o explo e he e olu ion o en i onmen al assessmen (Gazzola and
Onyango, 2024; Mo ison-Saunde s e al., 2024). In and he a ea o
go e nance, na a i es a e essen ial, especially when ackling complex
challenges, such as clima e change. Fo ins ance, na a i es a e used o
expand ou unde s anding o he WEFE nexus complexi ies and chal-
lenges a a ious le els (global, con inen al, and na ional) (Paschen and
Ison, 2014; Aguia e al., 2020). Also, na a i es can help o in es iga e
how di e en unce ain ies may impac u u e pa hways (Ma i e al.,
2023).
To assess he impac s o clima e change, he sha ed socioeconomic
pa hways (SSPs) and he ep esen a i e concen a ion pa hways (RCPs)
a e widely used in global en i onmen al esea ch. A se o na a i es
desc ibing he SSPs has been de eloped on a global scale (O’Neill e al.,
2017). These na a i es ha e been de eloped o highligh key scena io
ea u es and causal connec ions be ween clima e and socioeconomic
d i ing o ces, helping o in e p e po en ial ajec o ies (IPCC, 2022a).
Due o hei global co e age, hose na a i es do no conside policy
d i e s o na ional o subna ional sec o al cha ac e is ics. The mapping
be ween he SSP-RCP pa hways and WEFE policies a he Eu opean le el
has no been es ablished so a . This in o ma ion is, howe e , key o
assessing policy impac and in es iga ing he po en ial u u e de-
elopmen s o he WEFE sec o and i s impac s on he en i onmen a
he Eu opean le el.
Some a emp s o combine he RCP-SSP pa hways wi h sec o ial
de elopmen s include global s udies analysing g een g ow h ends (Van
Vuu en e al., 2017) o c op p oduc i i y g ow h (Wang e al., 2020). A
he con inen al le el, na a i es ha e been de eloped o e alua e he
ans o ma ion o he ood and ag icul u al sys ems in A ica (Aguia
e al., 2020). A he local le el, na a i es ha e been de eloped ocusing
on he in e connec ions be ween wa e and ag icul u e, bu wi hou
being aligned wi h clima e and socioeconomic pa hways (Cabello e al.,
2021).
Focusing on he Eu opean Union (EU), some s udies ha e de eloped
na a i es o EU ene gy and ood sys ems. Pa hways ha e been de el-
oped o assess he impac o he EU ene gy ansi ion on social heal h
and well-being (Dahal e al., 2024). In addi ion, quan i a i e s o y elling
has been applied o assess he connec ions be ween ene gy and wa e
esou ces (Di Felice e al., 2023). Based on he se o SSPs, s o ylines
ha e been de eloped desc ibing al e na i e plausible u u e de-
elopmen s o EU ag i ood sys ems un il 2050 (Mi e e al., 2020).
Wi h an emphasis on consume ends, na a i es ha e been de eloped
o he ood sec o in he EU, based on he SSPs and complemen ed by
expe knowledge and da a on ce ain opics, such as nu i ion and ood
sa e y (Ma hijs e al., 2018). SSPs ha e also been expanded o accoun
o pes icide use in Eu ope, om a m o con inen al scale, bu excluding
policy d i e s (Nagesh e al., 2023).
Despi e an inc easing numbe o s udies adop ing na a i es
desc ibing pa hways, mos o hem emain ocused on a subse o WEFE
sec o s and do no su icien ly in eg a e cu en EU policies and s a e-
gies. Exis ing s udies gene ally ail o ake in o accoun he di e si y o
iewpoin s in de eloping na a i es and ha e, in many cases, been
cons uc ed om he op down, adop ing he ideas o selec ed expe s in
one sec o bu igno ing o he key ac o s om o he sec o s (Alcamo and
Hen ichs, 2008). They ei he emain a he concep ual le el (Mi e
e al., 2020), a e no consis en wi h he SSP-RCP amewo k (Cabello
e al., 2021) o do no p o ide su icien de ail on he clima e, socio-
economic, and policy d i e s (O’Neill e al., 2017; Van Vuu en e al.,
2017; IPCC, 2022b).
In ou iew, na a i es o assess he WEFE nexus in he EU equi e a
pa icipa o y app oach, including and connec ing all WEFE nexus
componen s, in eg a ing clima e, socioeconomic and policy d i e s, and
being capable o measu ing he deg ee o compliance o WEFE policy
objec i es. Howe e , o he bes o ou knowledge, no p e ious s udy
conside s all hese c i e ia. Hence, he main objec i e o his s udy is o
de elop policy- ele an WEFE na a i es o he EU ha a e complian
wi h he SSP-RCP amewo k and conside EU policy objec i es.
The no el y o his esea ch lies in he mapping o he exis ing SSP-
RCP pa hways wi h he EU policy d i e s o he WEFE sec o s. The e-
o e, he esul ing pa hways in eg a e cu en WEFE policies a he EU
le el wi h global clima e and socioeconomic d i e s un il 2050. Fo each
pa hway, a policy- ele an WEFE na a i e was de eloped using
pa icipa o y app oaches. The policy- ele an WEFE na a i es desc ibe
c i ical d i e s o change, ends, and po en ial u u e e en s, high-
ligh ing how global and Eu opean d i e s in e ac and how clima e,
socioeconomic, and policy d i e s can h ea en o s eng hen he WEFE
nexus secu i y. Such in o ma ion is use ul o esea che s and policy-
make s o pe o m impac assessmen s o clima e, en i onmen , and
socie al challenges a he EU scale and unde di e en socioeconomic
and clima e pa hways.
The es o he pape is o ganized as ollows: Sec ion 2 explains he
me hodological app oach and he p ocess o de elop policy- ele an
WEFE na a i es. Sec ion 3 desc ibes he a ious inpu s ob ained om
he li e a u e e iew and s akeholde engagemen and p esen s he i e
policy- ele an WEFE na a i es de eloped. Sec ion 4 discusses he
na a i es de eloped. Finally, sec ion 5 ou lines he ele an poin s and
concluding ema ks.
2. Me hodological app oach
2.1. P ocess o de eloping policy- ele an WEFE na a i es
Fig. 1 p esen s he pa icipa o y app oach o de eloping policy-
ele an WEFE na a i es. A comp ehensi e backg ound s udy and
analysis o examine cu en pa hways was conduc ed. Based on hese
s udies, clima e and socioeconomic d i e s we e selec ed o se e as he
ounda ion o de eloping he na a i es. Fu he mo e, a li e a u e e-
iew o policy documen s was conduc ed o e iew he main EU-WEFE
I. A a e al.
En i onmen al Impac Assessmen Re iew 116 (2026) 108122
2
policy objec i es and d i e s. By mapping he a ious exis ing SSP-RCP
scena ios wi h he EU-WEFE policy objec i es, policy- ele an WEFE
pa hways we e de eloped based on s akeholde engagemen . Fo each
pa hway, a na a i e was d a ed and discussed wi h ele an
s akeholde s.
The de elopmen o he pa hways na a i es was unde aken
h ough a se ies o s uc u ed wo kshops in ol ing a di e se g oup o
s akeholde s and expe s, including na ional and Eu opean o ganiza-
ions and academia.
Hence, he p ocess o de eloping a se o policy- ele an WEFE
na a i es o WEFE u u e quan i a i e scena ios conside s he
ollowing s eps:
2.2. Scoping e iew
2.2.1. Clima e and socioeconomic scena io selec ion
The de elopmen o he policy- ele an WEFE na a i es is guided by
selec ing he main clima e and socioeconomic d i e s ha in luence
hese in e connec ed sys ems. In he exis ing li e a u e, nume ous
s udies explo e po en ial u u e scena ios by examining he clima e and
socioeconomic d i e s (IPCC, 2021. Typically, hese s udies ocus hei
analyses on p e ious assessmen s by he IPCC. In ou case, we speci -
ically conside ed he mos ecen s udies, encompassing assessmen s
om he Coupled Model In e compa ison P ojec Phase 6 (CMIP6),
in eg a ing a ious SSPs and RCPs scena ios. Based on hese scena ios,
clima e and socioeconomic d i e s we e iden i ied. Ou app oach in-
co po a es ecen ad ancemen s, in eg a ing Sha ed Socioeconomic
Pa hways (SSPs) and Rep esen a i e Concen a ion Pa hways (RCPs) o
e lec plausible u u es. Based on hese scena ios, c i ical d i e s we e
iden i ied and used as ounda ional elemen s o shape he policy-
ele an WEFE na a i es. These d i e s p o ide a s uc u ed pa hway
o add ess key WEFE policy objec i es.
2.2.2. Re iew o EU-WEFE policy objec i es and d i e s
Addi ionally, o in es iga e whe he and how a e he ela ionships
be ween sec o al policies in he EU, a g ey li e a u e om pe inen
Eu opean policies was consul ed, encompassing exis ing policies and
s a egies such as he EU G een Deal and he an icipa ed changes in he
EU wa e , ene gy, ood and en i onmen al policies. O e all, 11 policy
documen s ha e been examined: ou ela ed o he wa e policy a ea,
h ee o he ene gy policy a ea, h ee o he ood policy a ea, and one o
he ecosys em policy a ea (see Annex 1). In his s ep, a panel o 20 ex-
pe s pa icipa ed in an online wo kshop whe e we p esen ed and dis-
cussed he main WEFE policy objec i es o he EU (see Table 1). The
expe s engaged in his i s wo kshop b ough oge he a b oad ange o
pe spec i es ha we e key o selec ing he main WEFE policy objec i es.
2.3. Iden i ica ion o policy- ele an WEFE pa hways
A e analysing clima e and socioeconomic scena ios and e iewing
he main EU-WEFE policy objec i es, we explo ed he e olu ion o he
Scoping e iew
Policy-
ele an
WEFE nexus
pa hways
Policy-
ele an
WEFE
na a i es
Backg ound
analysis
Re iew o
policy
documen s
Final policy-
ele an
WEFE
na a i es
Consis ency
checking
D a ing
Second wo kshop
Using can as
Su ey Thi d wo kshop
Clima e and
socioeconomic
scena io
WEFE policy
objec i es and
d i e s
Ma ching
Selec ing
S akeholde engagemen
Fi s wo kshop
Fig. 1. Me hodological app oach o de elop policy- ele an WEFE na a i es. Sou ce: Ou own elabo a ion.
Table 1
Summa y o he pa icipa o y app oach (wo kshops and su eys).
Pa icipa o y
e en
Da e and
place
Expe s’ a ilia ion and
ole
Objec i e
Fi s
wo kshop
Ma ch 2023,
online
20 expe s:
•5 ep esen a i es
om EU Commission
se ices in he a eas
o ood, clima e
ac ion, ene gy, and
en i onmen
•6 expe s om wa e
•4 expe s om ood
•3 expe s om ene gy
•2 expe s om
ecosys em
Selec ion o main EU-
WEFE policy
objec i es
Second
wo kshop
May 2023,
Como (I aly)
20 WEFE expe s:
•3 expe s om ene gy
•3 expe s om
ecosys ems
•6 expe s om ood-
wa e
•2 expe s om
clima e
•11 expe s om
wa e
Ma ching clima e and
socioeconomic
scena ios o EU-
WEFE policy
objec i es o iden i y
WEFE pa hways
Su ey June 2023,
online
10 WEFE expe s:
•3 om ood-wa e
•2 om ene gy
•2 om ecosys em
•3 om wa e
P o ide insigh s in o
he compliance o
speci ic EU-WEFE
policy objec i es in
each selec ed WEFE
pa hway
Thi d
wo kshop
Sep embe
2023,
Mad id
(Spain)
120 expe s (60 in
pe son, 60 online),
including:
•Eu opean
policymake s in he
ields o ood,
en i onmen , and
clima e
•WEFE expe s om
non-go e nmen al
o ganiza ions and he
p i a e sec o
Consis ency check
Sou ce. Ou own elabo a ion.
I. A a e al.
En i onmen al Impac Assessmen Re iew 116 (2026) 108122
3
d i e s o change as well as hei ela ed unce ain ies. Expanding upon
he exis ing pa hways ou lined in socioeconomic and clima e scena ios,
we in oduced a policy dimension o de elop he policy- ele an WEFE
pa hways, inco po a ing inpu s om s akeholde s. Du ing a second
wo kshop held in I aly, we p esen ed he SSP-RCP con ex as well as he
main EU policy objec i es o a panel o 25 expe s (di e en om he
expe s o he i s wo kshop) ep esen ing a ious sec o s o he WEFE
nexus (see Table 1). Using a can as me hodology, his panel o expe s
was ac i ely engaged in aligning clima e and socioeconomic scena ios o
u u e de elopmen s o clima e, socio-economic, and go e nance d i e s
(see Annex 3). The undamen al concep o he can as app oach is o
decompose in ica e sys ems in o essen ial componen s ha a e show-
cased on a one-page isual layou (Os e walde and Pigneu , 2010). This
app oach acili a es a comp ehensi e unde s anding o he sys em as a
whole and eases s akeholde dialogue ia a common isual language.
Based on expe eedback, he policy- ele an WEFE pa hways we e
iden i ied. Fu he mo e, a su ey was de eloped and sen o 15 WEFE
expe s o ga he app oxima e quali a i e in o ma ion ega ding he
deg ee o achie emen o WEFE policy objec i es o each o he WEFE
pa hways. 10 WEFE expe s answe ed his su ey, which can be
conside ed as a ai esponse a e o his ype o s udy. Acco ding o
Powell (2003), he accu acy o a panel depends mo e on he quali y o
he pa icipan s han on he quan i y (see Table 1). In ha sense,
s akeholde inpu played a signi ican ole in shaping he con en and
di ec ion o he policy- ele an WEFE na a i es.
2.4. D a ing o policy- ele an WEFE na a i es and consis ency check
Policy- ele an WEFE na a i es we e de eloped based on he
mapping o he selec ed WEFE policy objec i es and policy d i e s o he
pa hway’s elemen s o he clima e and socioeconomic d i e s gene a ed
om expe s’ eedback (can as and su ey). These inpu s om expe s
we e syn hesized in o p elimina y na a i es by he esea ch eam.
Howe e , an ea ly challenge was ensu ing ha he language used in he
na a i es was accessible o all pa icipan s, no jus WEFE expe s. Fo
each policy- ele an WEFE pa hway, a na a i e was de eloped. These
policy- ele an WEFE na a i es inco po a e clima e, socioeconomic,
and policy d i e s and conside he deg ee o achie emen o a se o EU-
WEFE policy objec i es, iden i ied h ough a e iew o cu en EU pol-
icies and expe knowledge. A e d a ing policy- ele an WEFE na -
a i es, a consis ency check was conduc ed du ing a hi d wo kshop held
in Mad id wi h a panel o s akeholde s ep esen ing Eu opean policy-
make s in ag icul u e, en i onmen , and clima e, along wi h WEFE ex-
pe s om non-go e nmen al o ganiza ions and he p i a e sec o (see
Table 1). The expe s p o ided eedback on he alignmen o WEFE
policy objec i es wi hin each na a i e and on he unce ain ies su -
ounding he in eg a ion o cu en policies wi h clima e and socioeco-
nomic scena ios wi hin he WEFE nexus con ex .
3. Resul s
This sec ion illus a es he esul s ob ained ollowing he policy-
ele an WEFE na a i e de elopmen p ocess men ioned abo e.
3.1. Clima e and socioeconomic scena ios
Nume ous s udies add ess possible u u e clima ic scena ios based on
clima e and socioeconomic d i e s. These s udies gene ally ocus hei
analyses on p e ious IPCC assessmen s. In ou case, we ha e conside ed
he SSP-RCP scena io ma ix encompassed by he Coupled Model
In e compa ison P ojec Phase 6 (CMIP6) (IPCC, 2022a).
F om he combina ions be ween RCPs and SSPs and expe knowl-
edge ( eedback p o ided du ing he second wo kshop), ou scena ios
we e selec ed: SSP1–1.9 and SSP1–2.6 ( ela ed o achie ing he goal o
no su passing 1.5 and 2 deg ees o global wa ming, as indica ed in he
Pa is Ag eemen ), SSP3–7.0 (uppe -middle scena io conside ing he
con inua ion o ecen ends and he ongoing ene gy ansi ion) and
SSP5–8.5 (wo s -case scena io). Table 2 shows he main cha ac e is ics
o he selec ed scena ios, whe e he SSPs encompass a se o d i e s
( echnology de elopmen , land-use change, popula ion g ow h, and
in e na ional ade).
3.2. Main EU-WEFE policy objec i es
C i ical and main WEFE policy objec i es we e e iewed based on
he ongoing EU policies, he EU G een Deal, and en isaged changes in
EU wa e , ene gy, ood and en i onmen al policies. F om his e iew,
we selec ed 42 objec i es ele an o he WEFE nexus ( he ull lis o
WEFE policy objec i es is p esen ed in annex 2).
This lis o WEFE policy objec i es was p esen ed o a panel o ex-
pe s du ing he i s wo kshop on Ma ch 2023, in which ep esen a i es
om EU Commission se ices in cha ge o he policies ela ed o ag i-
cul u e and u al de elopmen , clima e ac ion, ene gy, and en i on-
men , as well as WEFE expe s, we e in i ed o p o ide eedback. Du ing
his i s wo kshop, s akeholde s we e asked o selec he objec i es hey
deemed mos ele an o de eloping policy- ele an WEFE na a i es.
F om he ini ial pool o 42 policy objec i es, 19 main WEFE policy ob-
jec i es we e iden i ied (see Table 3).
3.3. Iden i ica ion o policy- ele an WEFE-nexus pa hways
To iden i y he policy- ele an WEFE pa hways and hei na a i es,
he exis ing clima e and socioeconomic scena ios should ma ch he main
Eu opean WEFE policy objec i es selec ed du ing he i s wo kshop.
This s ep was ealized mainly based on s akeholde ’s eedback. Du ing
he second wo kshop, WEFE expe s al eady amilia wi h he SSP-RCP
amewo k i s helped o iden i y he ele an SSP-RCP pa hways o
his s udy (see Sec ion 3.1). Nex , using he Can as me hodology, hese
expe s p o ided eedback on how o ma ch cu en and o eseen EU-
WEFE policies wi h he SSP-RCP scena ios un il 2050 (see Annex 3).
Based on he Can as esul s, eedback om expe s highligh ed he need
o addi ional cla i ica ion o ce ain echnical e ms and concep s,
p omp ing adjus men s in how in o ma ion is p esen ed in each
pa hway. Signi ican di e gences and unce ain ies eme ged among
expe s ega ding he in eg a ion o cu en EU-WEFE policies wi h
clima e and socioeconomic scena ios. These di e gences necessi a ed
u he delibe a ions and p ocessing ( anking) o econcile a ying
pe spec i es. While hese me hods imp o ed consensus, hey also
unde sco ed he challenges o ully ha monizing p io i ies ac oss di e se
WEFE sec o s.
Du ing he wo kshop, he panel o expe s highligh ed se e al
pe inen aspec s ega ding he complexi y o mapping he cu en
WEFE policies wi h he selec ed SSP-RCP pa hways. They obse ed ha
achie ing equi able p og ess in complying wi h WEFE policy objec i es
ac oss di e en dimensions o he WEFE nexus is challenging unde he
a ious SSP-RCPs. In e ac ions wi hin he WEFE nexus o en in ol e
a ious ade-o s; compliance wi h objec i es in one dimension o he
nexus can esul in non-compliance wi h objec i es in o he nexus di-
mensions. Addi ionally, assessing he a ainmen o WEFE policy ob-
jec i es ac oss di e en spa ial scales gene a es complex implica ions.
Expe s ag eed ha , despi e he EU’s signi icance in he global
con ex , he e is a weak link be ween he ul ilmen o EU-WEFE policy
objec i es and global clima e and socioeconomic de elopmen s. How-
e e , he in luence in he opposi e di ec ion is s ong: global de-
elopmen s can signi ican ly impac he EU’s abili y o achie e i s WEFE
policy objec i es. As a conclusion, a lowe o highe EU clima e ambi ion
will no be enough o mo e om one SSP-RCP pa hway o ano he .
By mapping he exis ing a ious SSP-RCP pa hways wi h EU-WEFE
policies, h ee p ima y WEFE pa hways we e iden i ied du ing he sec-
ond wo kshop:
I. A a e al.
En i onmen al Impac Assessmen Re iew 116 (2026) 108122
4
•Sus ainable De elopmen : high clima e ambi ion bo h a global and
EU le els, aligned wi h SSP1–2.6.
•Weak Coope a ion: global consensus o mi iga e clima e change, bu
weak coope a ion and socioeconomic p oblems hinde he ansi ion
o sus ainable de elopmen , aligned wi h SSP3–7.0.
•Global F agmen a ion: high clima e ambi ion a EU le el, in a
con ex o global ossil- uelled de elopmen and inc easing geopo-
li ical ensions, aligned wi h SSP5–8.5.
Two ex eme pa hways we e also discussed:
•Emissions Neu ali y: aligned wi h SSP1–1.9.
•Global Risk: aligned wi h SSP5–8.5+(uppe ex eme o SSP5–8.5).
All pa hways assume ha he EU will keep he o eseen le el o
clima e ambi ion un il 2050. Howe e , i is impo an o men ion ha ,
while we conside ed ele an o keep he SSP-RCP amewo k, ou
pa hways do no exac ly ma ch he SSP-RCP na a i es, mainly because
expe expec a ions on u u e global ends ha e signi ican ly changed in
ecen yea s due o heal h c isis and geopoli ical ensions.
In pa icula , s akeholde s ag eed ha he “Global F agmen a ion”
and “Global Risk” pa hways will ep esen a challenging u u e o he
EU because, despi e i s clima e mi iga ion policies, he EU will ha e o
cope wi h ising clima e change. S akeholde s conside ed ha he
“Global F agmen a ion” and “Global Risk” pa hways will lead o SSP5-
RCP8.5, e lec ing ha cu en geopoli ical ensions and a lack o
conce ed ac ion could jeopa dize en i onmen al objec i es mo e han
socioeconomic ones.
3.4. Ma ch o WEFE pa hways wi h achie emen o EU-WEFE policy
objec i es
Du ing he second wo kshop, expe s we e also asked o iden i y he
main indica o s o conside when measu ing he deg ee o compliance o
he selec ed policy objec i es. Based on hei eedback, i e WEFE in-
dica o s we e selec ed o his pu pose, and di e en le els o compli-
ance o each indica o we e es ablished as h esholds o each na a i e
(see Table 4). An online su ey allowed us o ga he app oxima e semi-
quan i a i e in o ma ion ega ding he deg ee o achie emen o EU-
WEFE policy objec i es in he h ee p ima y WEFE pa hways, “Sus-
ainable De elopmen ,” “Weak Coope a ion,” and “Global
F agmen a ion”.
The EU aims a achie ing a good s a us o all wa e bodies by 2050.
Acco ding o he su ey esponden s (Fig. 2), in he Sus ainable De el-
opmen pa hway, his indica o would each 70 o 80 % by 2050. In he
Weak Coope a ion pa hway, mos expe s belie e ha he p opo ion o
wa e bodies wi h good s a us would be 50 o 60 % by 2050. Fo Global
F agmen a ion pa hway, acco ding o mos expe s, he wa e bodies in
good s a us would each 50 o 60 %. In conclusion, in all h ee na a-
i es, he a ge will no be eached by 2050.
The EU has se a minimum a ge o 45 % o ene gy om enewable
sou ces by 2030. In he Sus ainable De elopmen pa hway, mos expe s
s a ed ha he sha e o ene gy om enewable sou ces would exceed 40
% by 2030. Fo he Weak Coope a ion pa hway, mos expe s s a ed ha
he sha e o enewable ene gy would each 25 o 30 %. Fo Global
F agmen a ion pa hway, mos expe s conside ed ha he sha e o en-
e gy om enewable sou ces would only each 20 o 25 %, meaning he
si ua ion will be a om he a ge .
Acco ding o su ey esul s, inal ene gy consump ion would
dec ease by 4–6 % in 2030 compa ed o 2020 in he Sus ainable
De elopmen pa hway. In he Weak Coope a ion pa hway, his indica o
would dec ease by 2–4 % in 2030. Mos expe s conside ed ha he inal
ene gy consump ion would no dec ease in Global F agmen a ion
pa hway.
The EU se an objec i e o educe GHG emissions om anspo by
90 % in 2050. In Sus ainable De elopmen pa hway, mos expe s s a ed
ha GHG emissions om anspo would dec ease by 60–80 % by 2050.
The Weak Coope a ion pa hway shows unce ain ies ega ding his in-
dica o : ou expe s es ima ed a dec ease by 0–20 %, while ano he ou
decla ed a dec ease o 40–60 %. Fo Global F agmen a ion pa hway,
mos expe s ag eed ha GHG emissions om anspo would no
dec ease.
As o he las indica o (sha e o p o ec ed a ea), he expe s
conside ed he ha he sha e o p o ec ed a ea would each mo e han
28–30 % by 2030 in he Sus ainable De elopmen pa hway. In he Weak
Coope a ion pa hway, expe s p edic ed ha his indica o would each
26–28 % by 2030. In Global F agmen a ion pa hway, mos expe s
es ima ed he sha e o p o ec ed a eas would each 24–26 % by 2030.
Fig. 2 p o ides a gene al es ima e o policy objec i e compliance o
each na a i e, based on expe s’ eedback.
3.5. Desc ip ion o policy- ele an WEFE na a i es
Building upon he selec ed WEFE pa hways and hei ma ch o EU
policy objec i es, we designed na a i es o each policy- ele an nexus
WEFE pa hway by syn he izing he iews o he s akeholde s. Those
na a i es i s conside he global con ex (based on li e a u e and
expe eedback) and hen ocus on he achie emen o EU-WEFE pol-
icies (based on eedback om s akeholde s). Feedback om expe s
highligh ed ha some echnical e ms and concep s equi ed addi ional
cla i ica ion, leading o adjus men s in how he in o ma ion was p e-
sen ed. This i e a i e e inemen enhanced he inclusi i y and usabili y
o he na a i es, pa icula ly o policymake s. Below, we de ail he
na a i es o each o he policy- ele an WEFE pa hways shown in
Fig. 3.
3.6. Emissions neu ali y
The Emissions Neu ali y pa hway is he mos ambi ious pa h o
global sus ainabili y goals, aligning wi h SSP1–1.9. Globally, i en i-
sions a wo ld capable o achie ing he mos ambi ious goals o he Pa is
Ag eemen , including eaching ne -ze o global emissions by 2050 and
limi ing he inc ease in global su ace empe a u e o 1.5 ◦C abo e p e-
indus ial le els, ollowed by a downwa d end and s abilisa ion a ound
1.4 ◦C by he end o he cen u y (2100). This pa hway assumes signi i-
can changes in human beha iou , including a shi owa d mo e sus-
ainable li es yles and consump ion pa e ns, d i en by a ocus on equi y
and gene al well-being abo e economic g ow h. The pa hway depic s an
en i onmen al awa eness in socie ies a ound he wo ld, and a mo e
owa d less esou ce-in ensi e li es yles. This shi is also d i en by a
Table 2
Main cha ac e is ics o clima e and socioeconomic scena ios.
Scena ios Radia i e o cing (W/
m2)
Range o global mean empe a u e inc ease in
2100 (◦C)
Technology
de elopmen
Land use change
egula ion
Popula ion
g ow h
In e na ional
ade
SSP1–1.9 1.9 ~1 o ~1.5 Rapid S ong Low In e media e
SSP1–2.6 2.6 ~1.5 o ~2 Rapid S ong Low In e media e
SSP3–7.0 7.0 ~4 Slow Limi ed High Low
SSP5–8.5 8.5 >4 Rapid Incomple ely egula ed Low High
Sou ce. Own elabo a ion based on IPCC (2022a).
I. A a e al.
En i onmen al Impac Assessmen Re iew 116 (2026) 108122
5
high deg ee o ca e o social inclusion, cul u al he i age, and en i on-
men conse a ion. The imp o emen s in human well-being will lowe
popula ion g ow h. Coope a ion among di e en coun ies will be
excellen , wi h educed a i s and subsidies in in e na ional ade while
s eng hening local businesses globally. All o his will achie e sus ain-
able de elopmen goals globally.
A he EU le el, his pa hway assumes apid and a - eaching an-
si ions in ene gy, land use, u banisa ion, and indus ial sys ems,
esul ing in e y low le els o GHG emissions. Th ough EU policies such
as he Renewable Ene gy Di ec i e (RED) and Ene gy E iciency Di ec-
i e, i implies signi ican echnological ad ancemen s, which will allow
o a enewable ene gy ma ix, and will include de eloping and imple-
men ing ca bon dioxide emo al echnologies. The sha e om enew-
able ene gy sou ces will achie e mo e han 40 % by 2030. This will
educe GHG emissions om he ene gy sec o by mo e han 80 % by
2030, pa ing he way owa d a mo e sus ainable u u e. The inal ene gy
consump ion will be educed by app oxima ely 8 % by 2030. The Wa e
F amewo k Di ec i e (WFD) will lead o lowe wa e demand and
imp o ed wa e e iciency, coupled wi h mi iga ed global wa ming, will
enable achie ing wa e secu i y and imp o e he condi ion o aqua ic
and e es ial ecosys ems. The wa e bodies wi h good s a us will each
mo e han 90 % by 2050.
Th ough s a egies such as a m- o- o k (F2F) and he EU biodi e -
si y s a egy, he en i onmen al and clima e impac o he ood sys em is
e e sed, p ese ing ood p oduc i i y, and gua an eeing ood secu i y
in he ace o clima e change and he global biodi e si y loss. Wi h his
pa hway, he sha e o p o ec ed a eas will inc ease o each mo e han
30 % by 2030. These ac ions will allow us o achie e he a ge s o he
WFD and mos o he objec i es o he EU Biodi e si y S a egy. The
esul ing clima e amewo k would no signi ican ly di e om he
cu en one, albei wi h g ea e impac s ela ed o he highe magni ude
o wa ming. Despi e mo e equen ex eme wea he e en s, unde his
pa hway, he wo ld can a oid mos o he wo s impac s o clima e
change, and his can acili a e he achie emen o WEFE policy objec-
i es a he EU le el. This pa hway will imply signi ican socioeconomic
Table 3
Se o EU- ele an WEFE policy objec i es selec ed.
WEFE
dimensions
Objec i e Desc ip ion
Wa e Secu e supply o
d inking wa e
Gua an ee a s able and secu e supply
o d inking wa e , by encou aging
he inco po a ion o he isks o
clima e change in isk analyses.
Wa e Reduce wa e use
Reduce wa e use by aising he
wa e -sa ing equi emen s o
p oduc s, encou aging wa e
e iciency and sa ings, and by
p omo ing he wide use o d ough
managemen plans as well as
sus ainable soil managemen and
land use.
Wa e
Ensu e clima e- esilien
and sus ainable wa e
use
Ensu e he goal by imp o ing he
coo dina ion o hema ic plans and
o he mechanisms, such as wa e
esou ce alloca ion and wa e
pe mi s.
Wa e
En i onmen
Ensu e good s a us o
all wa e bodies
Achie e good s a us o po en ial o
all wa e bodies by 2027.
Wa e
Food
Encou age wa e euse
in i iga ion
P omo e and acili a e wa e euse in
ag icul u al i iga ion o educe
wa e abs ac ion ( he Wa e Reuse
Regula ion o 2020 se s new ules on
minimum wa e quali y
equi emen s o he sa e euse o
ea ed was ewa e ).
Ene gy
Clima e
En i onmen
Inc ease enewable
ene gy
Inc ease he o e all binding a ge
om he cu en 32 % o a new le el
o 42.5 % o enewables’ sha e in he
EU inal ene gy consump ion mix by
2030 (RED III di ec i e).
Ene gy Reduce ene gy
consump ion
Achie e a educ ion o 11.7 % o
inal ene gy consump ion by 2030
compa ed o he 2020 EU Re e ence
Scena io.
Food
En i onmen
Reduce he isk and use
o chemical pes icides
Reduce he o e all use and isk o
chemical pes icides by 50 % and he
use o mo e haza dous pes icides by
50 % by 2030.
Food
En i onmen
Reduce an imic obial
esis ance
Reduce o e all EU sales o
an imic obials o a med animals
and in aquacul u e by 50 % by 2030.
Food
En i onmen Fos e o ganic a ming
Inc ease he a ea o ag icul u al land
unde o ganic a ming managemen
and he adop ion o ag oecological
p ac ices in ag icul u e.
Food
En i onmen Reduce e ilise s use
Reduce he losses o nu ien s om
e ilise s by 50 %, educing he use
o e ilise s by a leas 20 %.
Food Reduce ood was e
Reduce ood was e by 2030, by 10 %
in p ocessing and manu ac u ing,
and by 30 % (pe capi a) a e ail and
consump ion.
En i onmen
Land Inc ease CO
2
emo als
Achie e 310 M CO
2
eq o g eenhouse
gas (GHG) emo als in he Land Use
Change and Fo es y sec o
(LULUCF) and inc ease he quali y
and quan i y o he EU’s o es s and
o he na u al ca bon sinks.
En i onmen Inc ease o es quan i y
Plan a leas 3 billion addi ional
ees by 2030, ollowing sus ainable
e- and a o es a ion p ac ices while
ully espec ing ecological
p inciples.
Clima e
En i onmen
Reduce ne GHG
emissions
Reduce ne g eenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions by 2030, by a leas 55 %
compa ed o 1990 le els.
Clima e Reduce anspo
emissions
Achie e a 90 % educ ion in o e all
anspo emissions (compa ed o
1990 le els) by 2050.
En i onmen
Land
Legally p o ec he land
a ea
Legally p o ec a minimum o 30 %
o he EU’s land and sea a ea, wi h a
Table 3 (con inued)
WEFE
dimensions
Objec i e Desc ip ion
hi d o hese s ic ly p o ec ed
(undis u bed by human ac i i y).
En i onmen
Wa e
Res o e ee- lowing
i e s
Res o e a leas 25,000 km o ee-
lowing i e s.
En i onmen
Biodi e si y P ese e biodi e si y
Ensu e ha Eu ope’s biodi e si y
will be on he pa h o eco e y by
2030.
Sou ce: Ou own elabo a ion.
Table 4
Lis o policy objec i es, indica o s, and a ge s.
WEFE
Dimension
Objec i e Indica o Le el
(2020)
Ta ge
Wa e -
En i onmen
Ensu e good
s a us o all
wa e bodies
Wa e bodies in
good s a us (%)
42 100
(2050)
Ene gy-Clima e
En i onmen
Inc ease
enewable ene gy
Sha e o ene gy
om enewable
sou ces (%)
22 45
(2030)
Ene gy Reduce ene gy
consump ion
Final ene gy
consump ion
(M oe)
905 763
(2030)
Clima e Reduce anspo
emissions
Reduc ion o GHG
emissions om
anspo (%)
30 90
(2050)
En i onmen
Land
Legally p o ec
he land a ea
Sha e o p o ec ed
a eas (%)
26 30
(2030)
Sou ce: Ou own elabo a ion.
I. A a e al.
En i onmen al Impac Assessmen Re iew 116 (2026) 108122
6
changes and, he e o e, i is no he mos likely o be achie ed.
3.7. Sus ainable de elopmen
The “Sus ainable De elopmen ” pa hway p esen s a high-ambi ion
sus ainabili y ou look owa d educing global GHG emissions and
achie ing ne -ze o global emissions a e 2050. I is aligned wi h
SSP1–2.6. Speci ically, i is p ojec ed ha , by he end o he cen u y, he
global su ace empe a u e will ise by app oxima ely 1.8 ◦C abo e p e-
indus ial le els. Globally, sus ainable de elopmen is s ongly
emphasised, wi h a cen al commi men o achie ing sus ainable
de elopmen goals. Wi hin he socioeconomic end, he wo ld shi s
g adually owa d a mo e sus ainable pa h, emphasising inclusi e
de elopmen ha espec s en i onmen al bounda ies. This shi is
d i en by inc easing e idence and accoun ing o he social, cul u al,
and economic cos s o en i onmen al deg ada ion and inequali y.
Inequali y is educed bo h ac oss and wi hin coun ies and imp o e-
men s in human well-being will dec ease he popula ion. This na a i e
p edic s global ends owa d abolishing cu en impo a i s and
expo subsidies, while g an ing p e e ences o egionally p oduced
ag icul u al p oduc s.
Th ough EU policies such as he Renewable Ene gy Di ec i e (RED)
and Ene gy E iciency Di ec i e, he de elopmen o en i onmen ally
iendly echnologies will be encou aged, and enewable ene gy sou ces
such as wind, sola , and hyd opowe will cons i u e a subs an ial p o-
po ion o he ene gy mix. The sha e om enewable ene gy sou ces will
achie e mo e han 40 % by 2030. This will educe GHG emissions om
he ene gy sec o by 60–80 %, pa ing he way owa d a mo e sus ainable
u u e. The inal ene gy consump ion will dec ease by 4–8 % by 2030.
The WFD will enable achie ing ela i ely lowe wa e demand and
imp o ed wa e e iciency. This will achie e wa e secu i y, and wa e
bodies wi h good s a us will each 70–80 % by 2050. Adop ing s a egies
Wa e bodiesin
good s a us
S
ha eo
enewable ene gy
Reduc ion o
ene gy
consump ion
Dec ease o
G
H
G
emission om anspo
S
ha eo
p o ec ed a ea
Fig. 2. Policy- ele an WEFE na a i es su ey esul s. Sou ce: ou own elabo a ion.
I. A a e al.
En i onmen al Impac Assessmen Re iew 116 (2026) 108122
7
such as F2F and p omo ing o ganic a ming p ac ices will e ec i ely
educe he clima e impac s on he ood sys em. Wi h his pa hway, he
sha e o p o ec ed a eas will inc ease o each mo e han 30 % by 2030,
making a leas a hi d o e es ial a ea una ailable o ag icul u al
expansion. Such p ac ices will help educe he use o chemical pes i-
cides, soil, wa e , and ai pollu ion, as well as biodi e si y loss. Reduced
consump ion o animal p oduc s is expec ed o dec ease he en i on-
men al impac o ood consump ion. Inno a ions will imp o e c op
yields and i iga ion e iciency while minimizing ood was e o inc ease
compe i i eness and s eng hen links in he ood supply chain. These
ac ions will allow us o achie e mos o he a ge s o he WFD and many
o he objec i es o he EU Biodi e si y S a egy. In his pa hway, hanks
o he ha moniza ion o EU and global e o s, he EU-WEFE policy ob-
jec i es will be la gely achie ed by 2050.
3.8. Weak coope a ion
The Weak Coope a ion pa hway ep esen s a medium le el o
ambi ion o achie e sus ainabili y goals by mid-cen u y, as coun ies
become inc easingly compe i i e wi h each o he , p io i izing na ional
secu i y a he han coope a ing o achie e sus ainable de elopmen . I
is aligned wi h SSP3–7.0. Globally, GHG emissions and empe a u es
con inue o inc ease. By he end o he cen u y, he global su ace
empe a u e is p ojec ed o ha e isen by 3.6 ◦C abo e p e-indus ial
le els. The wo ld will ace an inc easingly agmen ed u u e, cha ac-
e ised by economic and geopoli ical ensions. Regional i al ies will
hinde in e na ional coope a ion and de elopmen , impeding p og ess
in mi iga ing clima e change and achie ing sus ainable de elopmen
goals. High popula ion g ow h in de eloping coun ies will lead o in-
come inequali ies and pocke s o ex eme po e y alongside mode a e
weal h. Consump ion will emain ma e ial-in ensi e as in es men s in
g een echnologies will be low. Inequali y will pe sis and coun ies will
p io i ise hei ene gy and ood secu i y goals a he expense o b oade
de elopmen .
A he EU le el, adop ing he WFD will enable achie ing good s a us
o 50 o 60 % o wa e bodies by 2050. P essu e o achie e ood and
ene gy secu i y will lead o g owing wa e -use in ensi y. This, combined
wi h he signi ican inc ease in d ough s due o clima e change, will
agg a a e wa e sca ci y. Th ough EU policies such as he RED and
Ene gy E iciency Di ec i e, he inal ene gy consump ion on his
pa hway will dec ease by 2–4 % by 2030. The low echnological
de elopmen and high ma e ial consump ion lea e economic ac i i y
s ongly linked o high le els o inal ene gy demand. Due o conce ns
abou ene gy secu i y, uel p e e ences will be based p ima ily on p ice,
limi ing he de elopmen o enewable ene gy sou ces. The sha e o
enewable ene gy sou ces will he e o e only each 25–30 % by 2030.
T ade ba ie s o ossil uel supplies and he slow de elopmen o
enewable ene gy echnologies mean ha adi ional bio uels will be
phased ou a a slowe pace, esul ing in a small educ ion in GHG
emissions om anspo (0–20 %).
In e ms o ag icul u e, in ensi e ag icul u e will be p omo ed, and
c op yield and i iga ion e iciency will ise wi h GDP. The consump ion
o animal p oduc s and ood was e con inues o ollow he cu en end.
Th ough he EU biodi e si y s a egy, p o ec ed a eas o land use will
each 24–26 % a he EU le el by 2030, and he sca ci y o na u al e-
se es and unsus ainable ag icul u al p ac ices will con ibu e o educe
ecosys em se ices. As a esul , i will be di icul o achie e he WFD
a ge s and he objec i es o he EU Biodi e si y S a egy. G owing
esou ce in ensi y, ossil uel dependency and s ong en i onmen al
deg ada ion, along wi h di icul y in achie ing in e na ional coope a-
ion and slow echnological change, imply high challenges o mee he
EU-WEFE policy objec i es by 2050.
3.9. Global agmen a ion
The Global F agmen a ion pa hway e lec s low ambi ion o sus-
ainabili y, and i is aligned wi h SSP5–8.5. In his pa hway, he wo ld
economy expe iences apid g ow h, d i en by ex ensi e ossil uel
exploi a ion and highly ene gy-in ensi e li es yles, esul ing in a sub-
s an ial inc ease in GHG emissions and global empe a u e. By 2100, he
Fig. 3. Policy- ele an WEFE pa hways.
I. A a e al.
En i onmen al Impac Assessmen Re iew 116 (2026) 108122
8
global su ace empe a u e will ha e inc eased by a s agge ing 4.4 ◦C
abo e p e-indus ial le els. The pa hway also assumes limi ed p og ess
in clima e adap a ion and a signi ican inc ease in he equency and
se e i y o clima e- ela ed disas e s, leading o subs an ial economic and
social dis up ions. This pa hway en isions a u u e wo ld in which
policies a e agmen ed, and go e nance is ocused on na ional sel -
in e es s. De eloping coun ies expe ience apid mac o-economic
g ow h, depending on he use o ossil uels, bu de eloped coun ies
con inue o domina e he global economy. The wo ld expe iences high
le els o popula ion g ow h, income inequali y, and ossil uel de-
pendency. Adap a ion o clima e change and mi iga ion e o s a e
hinde ed by low global sus ainabili y ambi ion, leading o signi ican
challenges.
Fo he EU, e en wi h ene gy policies (RED and ene gy e iciency
di ec i e), he ene gy sec o la gely elies on ossil uels, wi h limi ed
echnological ad ancemen s in enewable ene gy sou ces. The sha e o
ene gy om enewable esou ces will only each 20–25 % by 2030. This
will no dec ease ene gy consump ion by 2030. Fu he mo e, he GHG
emissions om anspo a he EU le el will no dec ease by 2050.
Wa e secu i y will be a p essing conce n, as demand o wa e in-
c eases apidly, and wa e quali y declines due o pollu ion and o e -
ex ac ion, p e en ing he achie emen o mos WFD a ge s. Th ough
WFD, he wa e bodies wi h good s a us will each 50–60 % by 2050 in
his pa hway. All hese ac o s lead o inc eased esou ce p essu e,
including land and wa e sca ci y, and signi ican en i onmen al
deg ada ion.
Ag icul u e will ace signi ican challenges in ood p oduc ion and
secu i y. S a egies such as F2F and EU Biodi e si y S a egy will ha e a
e y limi ed e ec . Pes icide and chemical use will be p io i ised o in-
c ease ag icul u al yields, ha ming ecosys ems. Conse a ion o eco-
sys ems and biodi e si y will be limi ed due o he p io i isa ion o
economic g ow h o e en i onmen al p o ec ion. Land use will be
cha ac e ised by de o es a ion and he con e sion o na u al habi a s o
ag icul u e and u banisa ion, u he con ibu ing o en i onmen al
deg ada ion. The sha e o p o ec ed a eas will only each 24–26 % by
2030.
Fo he EU, his pa hway will en ail a challenging u u e because,
despi e i s e o s owa d sus ainabili y, he WEFE policy objec i es will
only be achie ed o a e y limi ed ex en , highligh ing he dependence
o he EU on global ag eemen s and coope a ion.
3.10. Global isk
The Global Risk is a pa hway wi h in ensi ied geopoli ical con lic s
and a med wa s as he p ima y d i e s o socioeconomic c ises, en i-
onmen al damage, and sca ci y o ood and na u al esou ces. This
pa hway ep esen s he uppe ex eme o SSP5–8.5, p ojec ing a long-
e m (2081–2100) a e age empe a u e inc ease o a ca as ophic
5.7 ◦C abo e p e-indus ial le els. The global popula ion will dec ease,
la gely due o colla e al casual ies om a med con lic s. In es men ,
indus y, and echnological de elopmen will ocus on mili a y weap-
on y a he han enewable ene gy sou ces o sus ainable de elopmen .
By 2030, his pa hway will demons a e a sligh imp o emen om he
ac ual si ua ion. Fossil uels will la gely domina e he ene gy mix and
he GHG will no be educed by 2050.The con lic s will e ol e a ound
con olling na u al esou ces, pa icula ly oil and gas, mine al deposi s,
and e en wa e and a able land. Consequen ly, widesp ead amine and
mig a ion will ensue, d i en by wa , clima e c ises, and hunge .
3.11. Consis ency check
A e d a ing he na a i es, a consis ency check was pe o med
wi h a panel o expe s in a wo kshop held in Mad id on Sep embe
2023. The s akeholde s ga e hei eedback abou compliance o WEFE
policy objec i es in each na a i e and he mapping be ween hese
WEFE policy objec i es and clima e and socioeconomic pa hways based
on Fig. 4.
The panel included expe s ep esen ing Eu opean policymake s in
he ields o ag icul u e, en i onmen , and clima e, oge he wi h WEFE
expe s om non-go e nmen al o ganiza ions and he p i a e sec o .
Du ing his session, he expe s highligh ed he high le el o unce ain y
in u u e pa hways:
•Se e al unce ain ies exis ega ding how o achie e u u e WEFE
policy objec i es equi ably o ins ance, achie ing educed emissions
equi e an inc ease in he sha e o enewable ene gy. Howe e ,
compliance wi h his objec i e may lead o non-compliance wi h
ce ain o he objec i es ou lined in he WFD and hose ela ed o
ood.
•The e a e unce ain ies ega ding he pace o echnological change
and how new echnologies will a ec he ade-o s be ween di e en
WEFE policy objec i es in he u u e.
•Addi ionally, unce ain ies exis abou he e olu ion o he d i e s o
change and ends, and explo ing hei implica ions is c ucial o
de eloping policy- ele an WEFE na a i es.
4. Discussion
The p ima y con ibu ion o his s udy is o de elop policy- ele an
WEFE na a i es ha desc ibe al e na i e plausible pa hways o he
WEFE nexus in he EU un il 2050. The policy- ele an WEFE pa hways
we e de eloped by mapping he EU-WEFE ela ed policies o a selec ion
o global SSP-RCP pa hways, while accoun ing o he cu en global
con ex . The policy- ele an WEFE pa hways play c ucial oles in
de ining u u e quan i a i e-policy WEFE scena ios o policy impac
assessmen , con ibu ing o he b oade scena io-building p ocess.
Na a i es de eloped o policy- ele an WEFE pa hways help in
explo ing and unde s anding how a ious unce ain ies may impac he
secu i y o he WEFE nexus a he EU le el.
This s udy makes se e al no el con ibu ions o he design and
applica ion o policy- ele an WEFE na a i es.
Fi s , a dis inguishing ea u e o his s udy is i s comp ehensi e
co e age o all ou WEFE sec o s h oughou he na a i e de elopmen
p ocess. While many p e ious e o s ha e ocused on only one o wo
dimensions o he nexus, his app oach add esses in e linkages ac oss all
sec o s. Such holis ic in eg a ion enhances he cohe ence, policy ele-
ance, and p ac ical applicabili y o he esul ing na a i es.
Second, he pa icipa o y na u e o he me hodology ep esen s a
majo s eng h. The de elopmen p ocess in ol ed a di e se and
balanced g oup o expe s and s akeholde s om ac oss he WEFE sec-
o s, selec ed o e lec a wide ange o ins i u ional backg ounds, dis-
ciplines, and pe spec i es. Conduc ed h ough a se ies o s uc u ed
wo kshops, his inclusi e p ocess os e ed knowledge co-p oduc ion,
g ounded he na a i es in eal-wo ld insigh s, and s eng hened hei
legi imacy and usabili y in policy con ex s.
Thi d, he esea ch ad ances exis ing clima e and socioeconomic
scena ios by explici ly embedding he EU policy dimension and ac-
coun ing o he changing geopoli ical con ex . As a esul , he p oposed
WEFE pa hways p o ide ele an insigh s o policymaking p ocesses.
Fou h, al hough he p ima y ocus o he na a i es is a he EU
le el, hei de elopmen explici ly inco po a es global d i e s and in-
e dependencies. This dual-scale pe spec i e inc eases he ele ance o
he na a i es in a globally in e connec ed con ex and enhances hei
po en ial o in o m bo h EU and in e na ional s a egies.
Fi h, he inal se o policy- ele an WEFE na a i es de ines a se o
ep esen a i e u u es ha cap u e a wide ange o unce ain ies. These
na a i es a e pa icula ly well-sui ed o scena io-based policy e alu-
a ion, p o iding a s uc u ed app oach o es he obus ness o policy
op ions and assess p og ess owa d in eg a ed WEFE objec i es. To he
bes o ou knowledge, no o he s udy has in eg a ed he Eu opean
WEFE policies wi h he exis ing clima e and socioeconomic pa hways
based on pa icipa o y app oaches. Despi e an inc easing numbe o
I. A a e al.
En i onmen al Impac Assessmen Re iew 116 (2026) 108122
9
