ISSN 2976 - 730X
IPI Le e s 2025,Vol 3 (4):O44-O73
h ps://doi.o g/10.59973/ipil.270
Recei ed: 2025-09-18
Accep ed: 2025-09-23
Published: 2025-10-06
Opinion
Sola Hyd oelec ic Ene gy: a Challenge o
Sus ainabili y and AI/IT-Ene gy Needs
Rocco Mo elli1,2,∗, Emiliano Cinelli3
1In o ma ion Physics Ins i u e, Rome, I aly
2Economic Enginee ing Associa ion, AICE-ICEC, Milano, I aly
3O de o he Na ional Council o Geologis s and Mayo o Mon e San Gio anni Campano, 03025, I aly
∗Co esponding au ho : mo elli. [email p o ec ed]
Abs ac - A e explaining he easons why ene gy is one o he challenges o he u u e, ega dless o hu-
man choices in many o he ields, he au ho emphasizes how he en i e EU, including I aly, emains highly
dependen on ene gy. Wi hou being able o ejec o he con en ional sou ces in imes o c isis, unde penal y
o eg ession and decline, he need o exploi sola ene gy is hus impe a i e, despi e he ola ili y o pho o-
ol aic o wind gene a ion and he esul ing isks and cons ain s o which a highly in e connec ed elec ici y
g id exposes. This is also e lec ed in he isks o an isola ed o poo ly in e connec ed g id, which equi es
egula ion in he con ex o he expansion o enewables. The au ho sugges s he easons o mo ing owa d
”hyd o-sola p ojec s” (hyd oelec ic pumping uni s powe ed by la ge pho o ol aic plan s), eclaiming a eas
o comp omised, some imes pollu ed, o decommissioned land, and in any case no in ended o ag icul u al
use. In his con ex , EU ETSs a e he e o e seen as a ool ha can help pay o hese new plan s, which exploi
enewable ene gy and cons i u e emedia ion measu es, as well as po en ial ene gy s o age and egula ion
in as uc u es se ing he ene gy needs o local communi ies, also p omo ing hei de elopmen . P elimina y
and explo a o y conside a ions ha e led o ini ial echnical, economic, and inancial simula ions, epo ed he e
in abula and g aphical o m, which demons a e he limi s o easibili y/bankabili y in he cu en con ex
based on expec ed p oduc ion cos s and g id placemen p ices; p ices s ill signi ican ly highe han hose o
he Eu opean ma ke in gene al. The ques ion he e o e a ises as o whe he land and en i onmen al ca e and
emedia ion measu es, such as he p oposed in as uc u e measu es (elec ici y g ids and new plan s o eplace
old and pollu ing ones), which ha e impac on human heal h, he plane , and i s obsole e in as uc u e, should
be subjec o ma ke ules. In his ega d, u he e lec ion is needed, also in iew o he mo e demanding
ene gy equi emen s o he sp ead o AI/IT and he necessa y da a cen e s.
Keywo ds - Sus ainabili y; Renewable ene gy; Pho o ol aics; Hyd o-sola p ojec s; G id in e connec ion;
Ene gy independence; P ima y egula ion; ETS; ESG; Challenges; Clima e change; En i onmen al impac :
AI/IT Ene gy Needs; Da a Cen e s.
1 In oduc ion
Among he g ea es challenges acing humani y is sus ainabili y, in gene alised mode, in e e y ield
o ac i i y. Today, decision science and managemen a e shi ing owa d new a he han adi ional
app oaches, hanks in pa o AI and mul idimensional da a analysis ha enable mo e measu ed and
a ional choices. Fo example, o p ojec s, alongside Sys em Value Managemen (SVM) a he han
Ene gy o AI/IT Needs
adi ional To al Cos Managemen (TCM), ESG (En i onmen al, Social, and Go e nance) c i e ia a e
becoming inc easingly popula . These p o ide a ele an amewo k o econ igu ing adi ional
managemen p ac ices wi hin a sus ainabili y- ocused pa adigm, emphasizing he in e connec ions
be ween sus ainabili y and o ganiza ional pe o mance in e e y p oduc ion acili y o goods o se -
ices. The e o e, you don’ ha e o be a p ophe o ha e a possible ision o he u u e, especially
since he inc easing ene gy demand o he expansion o a i icial in elligence and IT ( ypically: da a
cen e s) equi es e e mo e ene gy. Wha e e he scena io (economic-demog aphic g ow h o decline,
popula ion o adical depopula ion, wa o peace, coope a ion o compe i ion, na ional so e eign y
o cosmopoli anism, e c.) and wha e e pa h human ci iliza ion akes in he u u e, we can i mly
belie e ha he challenge will always be ene gy and en i onmen al p o ec ion. The ESG app oach,
like any o he , is a pa adigm ha does no de e mine, bu p esupposes, ene gy, wi hou which human
ci iliza ion alls in o impo ence and eg esses. E en he WEB, AI/IT, and BLOCKCHAIN (includ-
ing HFT-High F equency T ading upon which mode n inance is buil ) a e powe less i he e isn’
su icien ene gy a ailable. Fu he mo e, no only an I alian issue bu also a b oade Eu opean one,
i in ol es he in e connec ion o g ids and he p ima y con ol o equency and ol age o in e -
connec ed g ids o elec ici y ansmission and dis ibu ion. ≪The Eu opean elec ici y sys em is
in e connec ed: a p oblem wi h ene gy exchanges in he Balkans has epe cussions ac oss he en i e
con inen . . . . .. The elec ici y sys em in he coming decades aces nume ous challenges in main ain-
ing s able equency, and wi h i he eliabili y o supply, h ough eliable and a o dable esou ces
(RSE, Dossie 01/2017) [1]. I canno be igno ed, howe e , ha one o he ad an ages o e ed by
g id in e connec ion and he ee, bu con olled, elec ici y ma ke is he injec ion in o he g id o
quan i ies o ene gy p oduced (e.g. du ing he day, when pho o ol aic sys ems a e ac i e) ha can
be aken om he g id when needed (e.g. du ing he nigh , o hyd o-pumping needs), making hem
he subjec o app op ia e ag eemen s, compensa ion and adjus men s bylaw.
Elec ici y p oduc ion om wind and pho o ol aic powe is known o exhibi signi ican a ia ions
h oughou he yea , mon h, day, and e en wi hin a single hou . The a iabili y o wind and
pho o ol aic powe , as well as hei espec i e capaci y ac o s, which a e much lowe han hose o
o he gene a ion echnologies, a e well known and summa ized in he ollowing igu e.
Figu e 1: Va iabili y and in e mi ency o wind and pho o ol aic (Sou ces: US EIA +h ps://www. i is aene gia.i /2021/04/ a iabili a-e-
in e mi enza-di-eolico-e- o o ol aico/)
I is an es ablished ac , and mus be aken in o accoun in planning, ha wo 50 MW plan s wi h
o e lapping p oduc ion, one wind and he o he pho o ol aic, oge he p oduce as much as an ideal
plan o ano he ype ha ope a es a a powe o ∼25 MW con inuously (see Ene gy Magazine 2021 04)
[2]. The e o e, 1 GW o nuclea o he moelec ic powe does no co espond o 1 GW o pho o ol aic
o wind powe in e ms o p oducibili y.
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Ul ima ely, due o hei in insic a iabili y and modes capaci y ac o , i is p ac ically impossible
o expand he wind and pho o ol aic powe o an elec ici y sys em beyond ce ain limi s wi hou
p o iding adequa e ” o a ing” powe (peak-load hyd oelec ic, as well as base-load nuclea and
he moelec ic) ha can ensu e ol age and equency egula ion, as equi ed by elec ici y se ice
con inui y and sa e y c i e ia. Al hough his was clea ly demons a ed in he ecen blackou s in he
Ibe ian Peninsula, some planne s appea o be able o igno e i , pe haps d i en by he al e na i e
o ba e y s o age sys ems, which cu en ly appea un iable, no only o en i onmen al p o ec ion
easons. Such an op ion should be e alua ed and discussed in a sepa a e, mul idisciplina y s udy. I
should also be emembe ed ha Eu ope, bo h a p omo e and a ic im o indus ializa ion, is do ed
wi h abandoned indus ial si es, some imes pollu ed and pollu ing ( o example, nuclea , pe ochem-
ical, mining, chemical-pha maceu ical, chemical-biological, municipal was e land ills, e c.), which
mus be emedia ed and e u ned o hei o iginal in ended use. Whe e possible, p io i izing he
euse o such si es o accommoda e la ge-scale pho o ol aic sys ems would no only enable p oduc-
i e euse o he necessa y ene gy, pa icula ly nea by da a cen e s, bu would also acili a e e o s o
emedia e and euse hem wi hou consuming addi ional land o new plan s o ins alla ions. I hose
lands we e use ully sui able o ag icul u e o pas u e, hey would play a p ima y ole in ag o- ood
sus ainabili y and should be made una ailable o any o he use. I should also be emphasized, as
he ecen specula ions on ene gy ma ke ha e been con i ming o some ime, ha o he common
good, he e is a g ea need o inc ease each coun y’s ene gy independence. And—gi en ha sunligh
is s ill a ailable and ee e e ywhe e— he use o pho o ol aic ene gy appea s o be becoming one
o he mos cos -e ec i e ways o do so. Fo o e wo decades, I aly, like o he EU coun ies, has
impo ed pho o ol aic panels wo h ens o billions o eu os, wi h he in es men ’s impac p ima ily
ab oad. ENEL’s ini ia i e o c ea e a na ional supply line in Sicily (as Ge many has long done) could
make a di e ence, especially because i ocuses on bi acial panels, which p omise a 10 o 25% inc ease
in ou pu compa ed o adi ional panels and o e a p ice poin simila o he la e . A ou la i udes
(e.g., Rome), wi h op imal exposu e, annual p oduc ion is a ound 1100-1300 kWh/kW ins alled (see
Fig. 20 in he Appendix). In he Sicilian plan s planned by ENEL, p oduc ion le els o nea ly 2000
kWh/kW ins alled a e expec ed. Typically, 1 kW peak (kWp) is achie ed wi h∼10 m2o panels. Fo
he a eas equi ed o pho o ol aic ields,∼1.5 ha/MW a e es ima ed, also o ope a ion and main e-
nance easons. Fu he mo e, i is no ed ha pho o ol aics in eg a e well wi h pumped hyd oelec ic
plan s, because pumping can ake place a he expense o he sola ene gy p oduced by he pho o-
ol aic sys em ( e e o Fig. 7.A and 7.B below). Howe e , pho o ol aics is no only unc ional o
cos -e ec i eness and pumping, bu also o ha o da a cen e s, o example, which a e expec ed
o expand subs an ially due o he sp ead o AI. Fu he mo e, combined wi h pumping, which in
i sel is al eady an ene gy s o age sys em, he ins alled hyd o-pho o ol aic sys em can cons i u e a
eal ene gy ese e o local needs, in imes o c isis, ensu ing ene gy secu i y and a wa e ese e
unc ion h ough hyd o-sola sys ems o easonable powe .
The di ec link be ween sus ainable ene gy and en i onmen al p o ec ion is undeniable as much as we
hink abou he g owing ene gy needs o sp ead a i icial in elligence and in o ma ion echnologies.
This connec ion also ex ends o he clima e change eme gency. Po en ial hyd o-sola p ojec s a e in-
s alla ions ha os e he expansion o enewable sou ces, sol ing he p oblems o p ima y equency
and ol age egula ion ha p e en hei widesp ead adop ion as a eplacemen o o he ossil- uel o
nuclea -powe ed sou ces. They would help mi iga e he e ec s o clima e change and sa egua d he
en i onmen h ough lowe emissions. Th ough EU-ETS (Emission T ading Sys em)[3], hey would
also se e as a ool o inancing hei cons uc ion, making ETS no longe a me e ool o keeping old,
pollu ing plan s unning simply by holding emission ce i ica es. Gi en he enue o his discussion,
a close look a he p oposed opics seems app op ia e. Ra he han p o iding ce ain ies, i seems
app op ia e o aise ques ions and p o ide da a and examples o encou age u he in es iga ion. All
his is o open up spaces o ho ough, ins i u ional, and au ho i a i e in es iga ions ha shed ligh on
some o he gene al issues ha appea o be aking on con o e sial aspec s, such as he an h opogenic
o igin o on-going clima e change. A leas acco ding o he pe cep ion o many in he gene al public,
bu also o some indi iduals o g oups in he scien i ic communi y, clima e change may no ha e
an h opogenic o igins. A p ime example o li e a u e on his subjec [4] is ”Dialogues on Clima e,”
edi ed by A. P es ininzi wi h he scien i ic con ibu ion o CERI – Digi al Edi ion 2022 – Rube ino
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Edi o e. This and simila collec ions o a icles and esea ch by a ious academics in a ious ields
lead o ques ions abou many opics ega ding he ene gy ansi ion and he an h opogenic causes
ha make i necessa y. The eme ging ques ions may conce n, depending on indi idual sensi i i y
and knowledge, he ollowing:
•a) he ue weigh o CO2as a scien i ically ecognized d i ing o ce o he g eenhouse e ec
in clima e change, gi en, o example, ha in compa a i e e ms, wa e apo could ha e
a de e mining and p e ailing e ec , also gi en he small amoun o CO2in he a mosphe e
compa ed o wa e apo and o he cons i uen s;
•b) as ophysical causes: e ec s o con ibu ions, o example, o sola cycles, co onal mass
ejec ions, me eo bomba dmen o he plane , changes in he e ec i eness o he plane ’s na u al
elec omagne ic shields, ene gy densi y o galac ic and ex agalac ic cosmic adia ion, and
gamma ay blas s, e c.; all p ocesses ha b ing ene gy o Ea h;
•c) geological causes: o example, in e nal hea and adioac i i y, ising plumes, ene gy eleased
by seismic and olcanic e ec s, e c.;
•d) he impac o an h opogenic causes on he obse ed clima e change, gi en ha hey a e
accompanied by causes o con ibu o y ac o s o a ious o igins:
- Demog aphic: since he human body is a sou ce o hea , on a e age, o ∼80 W om me abolic
p ocesses;
- In ensi e li es ock a ming: he abo e e ec also exis s o mammals aised o ood;
- Plan -based: T ees dissipa e me abolic hea p ima ily h ough anspi a ion (wa e abso bed om
he soil and wa e apo eleased om he lea es, which cools he ee) and con ec ion (hea ex-
change wi h he su ounding ai ). Addi ional s a egies include o ien ing coole lea es upwa d o
pho osyn hesis and using soil mois u e;
- Ene ge ic: Inc easing dissipa ion o ene gy consumed on he Ea h’s su ace ( o indus ial, ans-
po a ion, domes ic, e c.) could lead o negligible accumula ions in he sho e m, bu signi ican in
he long e m, as hese a e addi i e e ec s whose dissipa ion in o deep space necessa ily equi es an
inc ease in empe a u e, a leas locally.
The cu en scien i ic consensus seems o ocus on ixed poin s, some o which a e b ie ly summa ized
he e below.
Clima e models include: sola a iabili y, olcanoes, an h opogenic g eenhouse gases, ae osols,
ca bon cycles, wa e apo eedbacks, clouds, ege a ion, and land use. They, howe e , ea as negli-
gible: geo he mal hea , seismici y, human and animal body hea , and di ec ene gy dissipa ion. They
do no include (excep in ex eme o paleo-clima ic scena ios): me eo i es, gamma- ay bu s s, and
signi ican changes in he geomagne ic ield (because hei ene ge ic e ec s a e conside ed minimal).
The ele ance o wa e apo , hen, is based on he impossibili y o di e gen e ec s. Wa e apo
is a mo e powe ul and abundan g eenhouse gas han CO2, bu i s a mosphe ic concen a ion is
belie ed o be s able o e ime, making i a eedback (an ampli ie ) a he han he p ima y d i e o
cu en global wa ming, which is ins ead a ibu ed o he inc ease in CO2and o he an h opogenic
g eenhouse gases. Bu since i is a eedback, one migh ask wha he limi o he inc ease in wa e
apo is ha makes he g eenhouse e ec a po en ially uns oppable di e gen p ocess. The answe s
lie in he ac ha he clima e sys em is no an ”open loop”, bu also has nega i e eedbacks and
physical limi s: clouds, which can in-c ease e lec i i y (albedo); he mal adia ion emi ed by he
Ea h, which inc eases wi h empe a u e ( he S e an-Bol zmann law); and a mosphe ic and oceanic
p ocesses ha dis ibu e hea and humidi y. The e o e, wa e apo is conside ed ampli ie , bu by
i sel canno make he clima e inde ini ely uns able.
Wa e apo as a eedback has a limi : i becomes di e gen only i he Ea h’s capaci y o adia e sola
hea in o space is exceeded: ha is, he ”uncon olled g eenhouse e ec .” Physical es ima es show ha
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his limi is una ainable wi h cu en CO2emissions: i would equi e wa ming o ens o deg ees,
a beyond cu en p ojec ions. The e o e, he inc ease in apo ampli ies he wa ming, bu does no
make he Ea h’s clima e ca as ophically uns able. Clima ological s udies (Kas ing, Goldbla , and
o he s; see e e ences in Appendix 2) es ima e ha on Ea h he adia ion limi co esponds o an
a e age global wa ming o abou +700C compa ed o oday; ha is, when he a mosphe e would be
almos sa u a ed wi h wa e apo . Cu en an h opogenic wa ming o a ew deg ees 0C does no
e en begin o app oach ha egime.
In Fig.2, is a concep ual g aph o he adia ion limi (Simpson–Nakajima): i shows how he OLR
(Ou going Longwa e-in a ed Radia ion) inc eases wi h d y empe a u es bu , in he p esence o
la ge amoun s o wa e apo , ends o an asymp o e a ound∼300 W/m2. As long as he maximum
OLR emains abo e he abso bed sola ene gy (˜
240 W/m2), he sys em inds equilib ium: he e is no
di e gence. The unaway g eenhouse would only begin i he abso bed ene gy consis en ly exceeded
ha limi , which is a om he case oday. A sepa a e and mo e ex ensi e li e a u e sea ch on hese
widely s udied opics, conduc ed using Deep Sea ch, is included in he Appendix o u he eading.
Figu e 2
Rega ding he clima ic signi icance o he a ious sou ces known oday, i should be no ed ha , in
summa y, only he sun and g eenhouse gases a e conside ed s ong d i e s o global clima e. Sola
a iabili y and olcanoes ha e measu able e ec s, bu hey a e conside ed mino and empo a y. All
o he di ec ene gy con ibu ions (human hea , animals, geo he mal ene gy, me eo i es) a e o de s o
magni ude smalle and do no seem o impac he global clima e balance (see Table 1). I should be
no ed, howe e , ha acco ding o he ollowing able, an h opogenic was e hea (20 TW globally),
al hough small globally, can be signi ican locally (e.g. causing u ban hea islands), especially in
la ge ci ies o la ge indus ial clus e s. Conside ing ha he a ia ion in he ene gy lux induced
by an h opogenic g eenhouse gases (=2.7 W/m2), conside ed ha he cu en e ec i e ne o cing is
abou 1% compa ed o he sola lux (˜
240 W/m2), his means ha mul iple non-an h opogenic e ec s
combined wi h pa icula local si ua ions in a gi en place can p oduce ad e se e ec s in he so-called
“mic oclima e” (e.g. a eas adjacen o closed seas ha end o hea up in he wa m season beyond he
usual a e age empe a u es and p oducing unusual le els o ai humidi y. And he so-called com o
cu e, which measu es he pe cep ion o hea , well known in he mo- echnics, is a unc ion o bo h
empe a u e and humidi y!).
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Table 1: Clima ic Rele ance o Di e en Sou ces. (Sou ce Cha GPT).
Clima e change also ine i ably impac s human heal h h ough inc eased hea -wa es ha cause ca -
dio ascula and espi a o y diseases, he sp ead o in ec ious diseases ansmi ed by mosqui oes
and icks, wo sening ai quali y esul ing in espi a o y diseases, ood and wa e sho ages leading
o malnu i ion, and a nega i e impac on men al heal h due o ex eme wea he e en s and s ess.
Conce n abou CO2le els has long been a d i ing o ce, esul ing in some issues being o e looked
a he han highligh ed. Examples include he abso p ion o mic o-plas ics, whose e ec s on human
and en i onmen al heal h a e g adually eme ging, bu e en ine pa icles some imes seem o go en,
despi e he p o en ha m hey cause o human heal h.
Table 2: Pm2.5 emissions (k /yea ) by sec o in some key yea s (I aly). (Sou ce: ISPRA Na ional In en o y).
The able abo e shows ha om 2010 o 2019, he e was a clea imp o emen in Pm2.5 pa icula e
ma e in I aly, bu since hen he e ha e been no signi ican educ ions, and one ge s he imp ession
ha a limi has been eached ha can no longe be imp o ed. One almos ge s he eeling ha a limi
is insu moun able.
The sense o an insu moun able limi is e en mo e e iden when looking a he o al Pm2.5 da a o
he en i e EU (see Tab. 3), especially in g aphical o m, whe e he magni ude o he end o e all
and ac oss di e en sec o s can be immedia ely seen in he ollowing g aph (see Fig.3 below). The e
ha e been ai ly limi ed imp o emen s up o 2018, bu since 2020, i ’s di icul o say whe he he
obse ed s agna ion has occu ed due o in insic echnical limi a ions o he ine ec i eness o he
policies adop ed.
These abo e epo ed a e adi ionally explana o y a gumen s o clima e change and he need o
an ene gy ansi ion. Al hough hey do no di ec ly ques ion pas o on-going modeling due o
hei scope and he esul s achie ed o da e, do no always seem o elici absolu e and widesp ead
consensus among he a ious scien i ic communi ies, especially hose mos c i ical and dis an om
he mains eam consensus.
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Table 3: EU-27 – Pm2.5 by sec o (k /anno) – Sou ce: EEA (Eu opean En i onmen Agency).
Figu e 3: Recen Pm2.5 Emissions T end in EU-27 (Sou ce: Deep Sea ch)
Adop ing he p ecau iona y p inciple in eme gency p o ec ion policies is app op ia e i combined
wi h a balanced scien i ic consensus and he du y o in es iga e he unde lying causes, wi hou o cing
one di ec ion o ano he , bu esponding and ac ing wi h a ional explana ions o he a gumen s o
hose scien i ic communi ies, albei a mino i y, who s uggle o each consensus on he con o e sial
aspec s hey highligh in dialogue. Con o e sy illed wi h a gumen s ha a e some imes o e looked
and no always lacking in cohe ence o ounda ion. Dissen is, howe e , pa o a democ a ic
ci iliza ion. And while mains eam scien i ic consensus can ca y g ea weigh , scien i ic u h comes
o us om expe imen al e i ica ion, a he han om majo i y consensus. The e o e, i is on hese
”expe imen s” ha we mus shi he discussion, iden i y any necessa y policies, and gain consensus
h ough hem. Wi hou o ge ing ha dissen , howe e mino i y, can ha e a c i ical powe o
” igge ing” coun e -in o ma ion owa d posi ions pe cei ed as ”p e-es ablished” by gene al public
opinions. Pe haps, o his eason, i has no helped o igno e he logis ical, in as uc u al, and abo e
all human and en i onmen al damage caused by sinking No d S eam, as well as ha caused by
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on-going wa s, o wo se, he nuclea wa s hey could unleash. The pe cei ed lack o in eg i y in
he balancing o an in o ma ion sys em does no os e he clima e o us necessa y o consensus,
which is needed o implemen emedial plans o he eme gency si ua ions in o which we ha e been
plunged, ce ainly no suddenly, no unknowingly.
2 Discussion
2.1 EU (and I aly) a e ne impo e s o ene gy (and no jus elec ici y)
The Eu opean Union is a ne ene gy impo e , meaning i impo s mo e ene gy han i expo s. In
2020, o e hal o he EU’s ene gy came om impo s. In pa icula , he EU is hea ily dependen on
ossil uel impo s, wi h Russia as he main supplie . In 2020, app oxima ely 58% o he EU’s ene gy
was p oduced ou side i s bo de s. I aly’s dependence on o eign sou ces o supply is an es ablished
ac , and e en mo e c i ical. App oxima ely 7% o 15% o elec ici y is impo ed e en om nuclea
sou ces. In 2022, ossil uel impo s co e ed 78% o I aly’s ene gy needs. In 2024, I aly saw i s
ene gy dependence on o eign sou ces decline, alling o 72%, hanks o lowe ossil uel impo s
and an inc ease in domes ic enewable ene gy(mainly PV and Wind). Despi e his, I aly con inues o
ha e a high need o impo ed ene gy, and al hough ene gy expendi u e has dec eased signi ican ly
compa ed o 2022, i emains one o he Eu opean coun ies wi h he highes dependence on o eign
ene gy. This makes i agile and, in a ee ma ke con ex , some a gue, exposes i o specula ion,
as necessa y ene gy quo as can be g an ed a a highe p ice o ”weal hie ” coun ies, esul ing in de
ac o sho ages and p ice inc eases on domes ic ma ke s. This aises ene gy secu i y and su iciency
issues ha imply geopoli ical di e si ica ion o supply sou ces and di e si ica ion o p oduc ion
echnologies, wi hou excep ion, nuclea i s and o emos .
Figu e 4: Fossil uel impo s in o he EU in he las i e yea s.
Bu how sus ainable, in gene al, is he use o he moelec ic powe and he e o e ossil uels, e en
low-ca bon ones (i.e., gas), h ough he holding o g een ce i ica es o co e he esul ing emissions,
when he e a e∼2,000 GWe ins alled globally, wi h an a e age li espan o ∼15 yea s ( o coal alone)?
This is one o he i s eal challenges, since emissions caused by ossil uels – pa icula ly ine pa icles
Pm2.5, PM10, as well as CO2and o he g eenhouse gases – can con ibu e o ad e se e ec s on human
heal h and ecosys ems in gene al. On he o he hand, humani y is no in a posi ion o gi e up any
o he ene gy sou ces known oday un il i has new, clean sou ces and echnologies ha mee he
concep o ”p o en echnology” (i.e., con inuous ope a ion o 8,000 hou s/yea ).
This clea ly implies he need o p omo e ene gy esea ch well beyond ma ke condi ions since i is
he s a es hemsel es ha a e called upon o ake ac ion o sa egua d he communi ies hey manage
and o whose u u e hey a e esponsible. I all his is los sigh o , i becomes ine i able ha popula
hough (o en labeled “populis ”) will sp ead and call in o ques ion he e y basis o he legi imacy
o he powe o which i is subjec ed.
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Figu e 5: Ene gy Dependence in I aly.
2.2 S abili y o Na ional and Local Elec ici y G ids
To gi e an example, Sicily case will be discussed he e, bu he discussion can be ex ended o any egion,
no necessa ily geog aphically isola ed, bu isola ed in e ms o g id in e connec ion. Gi en he
po en ial o sho e wind p ojec s in Sicily o aling app oxima ely 3 GW—plus a u he 4 GW planned
o pho o ol aic ins alla ions, on an o e all exis ing local powe o app oxima ely 9.5 GW—one
mus ask whe he , wi h he con inued expansion o pho o ol aic and wind plan s, he elec ici y
g id o which hey connec can emain s able. The e a e epo s and e iden occu ences ha o he
Eu opean coun ies, accele a ing enewables, ha e expe ienced ins abili y p oblems. Pa ly because,
ypically, equency and powe egula ion, in he pas , occu ed a he na ional dispa ching le el,
a High Vol age (HV). Today, howe e , an inc easing numbe o wind and pho o ol aic plan s a e
being connec ed o Medium o Low Vol age (MV/LV) g ids. And no e e yone is con inced ha he
egula ion applied o he HV g id is immedia ely e ec i e on local MV/LV g ids, whe e e hey a e
loca ed. A e hey w ong? I doesn’ seem so, because be ween he HV ansmission g ids and he
MV/LV dis ibu ion g ids he e may be ans o ma ion and powe ac o co ec ion subs a ions.
Figu e 6: (Sou ce: TERNA)
2.3 Compa ibili y be ween sus ainabili y and g ow h in he con ex o ongoing clima e change
Rega dless o he con o e sies be ween p oponen s o an h opogenic causes and hose o na u al
cyclical causes, clima e change appea s o be incon o e ibly demons a ed in he measu emen s
and moni o ing o objec i e geophysical pa ame e s, as well as in he conc e e en i onmen al e ec s
ha mode n science and echnology make a ailable h ough con inuous moni o ing. The ange
o possible causes (an h opogenic, cyclical, geological, as ophysical, e c.) seems o push legisla-
o s—beyond cause-and-e ec esea ch— o ake in o accoun a ”p ecau iona y p inciple.” This is
also unde p essu e om mo e o less a ge ed in o ma ion and media campaigns ha ampli y he
esonance o a ”ca as ophism” no sha ed by all, due o he impe a i e adop ion o ene gy models
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Table 6: Summa y 2 – Simula ions.
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Figu e 8: G aphical esul s o selec ed Indica o s o Hyd o Powe Plan 100MW.
Figu e 9: G aphical esul s o selec ed Indica o s o PV Plan 300MW.
2.7 Some echnical aspec s o conside when inalizing he p ojec
The aspec s o be conside ed in he enginee ing and design phase a e bo h o a s ic ly echnical na u e
as well as inancial na u e, including he possibili y o using ETS o p ojec inancing pu poses[ 23-28]
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(see Fig. 10 and Table 7 below, along wi h he online wie e h ps://sandbag.be/ca bon-p ice- iewe /).
Figu e 10: CO2p ice end (in €/ ) in he i s en mon hs o 2021.
Table 7: ETS ”WHAT IF” es ima e: Gi en an a e age end in he cos o CO2in a gi en pe iod, he able shows he es ima e o i s a oided
cos o he pu poses o adable emission ce i ica es.
Fo example, ega ding he op imiza ion o he olume and posi ioning o he hyd o ese oi s based
on he du a ion o he pumping and egula ion se ice; as well as o he choice o he ype o hy-
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d aulic u bine based on head and low a e e e o Fig. 11 and Fig. 12. Ob iously, i is ad isable o
op imize p ojec s wi h he highes possible geode ic heads o educe he cos s o ese oi s, pens ocks,
machine y, e c. Small heads wi h high low a es may gene ally in luence he ype o sys em and
a ec in es men cos s. Fu he mo e, whe e one wishes o p io i ize he eliabili y o he pumping
se ice and he e sa ili y o he plan , one could conside dis ibu ing he powe ac oss mul iple
plan sec ions: o example, ins ead o a 100 MW hyd oelec ic plan , one could conside wo 50 MW
sec ions o ou 25 MW sec ions, p o ided ha he cos s allow i .
The leng h o he pens ock along he geode ic head can cause wa e hamme in he e en o a sudden
closu e o in e up ion o wa e low and may also equi e, as a mi iga ing measu e, a piezome ic
and damping sys em, wi h implica ions on in es men cos s.
The de elopmen and implemen a ion p og ams also need o be op imized, o which wo p elimi-
na y p oposals ha e been epo ed below, d awn up sepa a ely in Fig. 13 and Fig. 15, espec i ely
o he hyd oelec ic pa and o he pho o ol aic pa . Fo a 100 MW hyd oelec ic plan , EIA da a
sugges s a i e-yea ime ame, om he s a o on-si e cons uc ion. Howe e , in p ac ice, he e
may be speci ic ci cums ances (as has occu ed in o he la ge hyd oelec ic plan s in I aly and else-
whe e) ha could ha e ex ended he ime ame. Typically, i is au ho iza ion p ocesses (pe mi s and
licenses), whe he ins i u ional, ex e nal, o in e nal, ha can c ea e delays, as well as complica ions
wi h on-si e ci il enginee ing wo k, o delays in he ab ica ion o componen s in he wo kshop.
Ob iously, delays ha occu a e cons uc ion has begun, nega i ely impac he p ojec ’s inancial
cos s, no only because hey inc ease in e es on he inancing ecei ed, bu also because hey delay
he plan ’s en y in o comme cial se ice and he e o e impac he Deb Repaymen Se ice. In sho ,
a hyd oelec ic plan ’s p og am is longe and exposes i o g ea e economic, inancial, and o he
isks, which mus be app op ia ely conside ed in ad ance. Taking in o accoun he g ea e di icul ies
ha a e objec i ely encoun e ed in he cons uc ion o sys ems in ca e ns a he han a he oo o he
dam, he p elimina y e e ence o 3 yea s o de elopmen and design +9 yea s o cons uc ion o a
ca e n solu ion as in Fig. 13 and Fig. 14. Fo he solu ion a he oo o he dam i can be p elimina ily
assumed ha he cons uc ion p og am is educed om 9 o 6 yea s, and i he de elopmen and
design p og am emains a 3 yea s, he o al is 6 +3=9 yea s.
The basic assump ions o a imeline o a la ge pho o ol aic sys em (≥100 MW) a e as ollows:
a) - a la ge pho o ol aic ield does no necessa ily ha e o be buil on a single, seamless a ea; ha is,
i may also consis o se e al sub- ields loca ed in di e en pa s o he same e i o y (e.g., di e en
municipali ies in he same p o ince), bu pa o he same p ojec and essen ially using he same
local elec ici y g id o eed hei p oduc ion in o he g id. Ob iously, in his case, he exis ence and
a ailabili y o logis ical in as uc u e mus be e i ied o each sub- ield;
b) - his means ha since a PV plan is a modula p ojec ha can be educed o si e p epa a ion, ci il
enginee ing, and assembly o suppo ing s uc u es and panels, i is possible o wo k simul aneously,
p ac ically in pa allel, on mul iple sub- ields (di e en ly loca ed), p o iding in app op ia e measu e
he necessa y manpowe and esou ces on each sub- ield;
c) - This allows us o assume ha o a la ge p ojec (e.g., ≥100 MW), cons uc ion imes – as a i s
app oxima ion – should no a y signi ican ly wi h plan size. The e o e, we can p elimina ily as-
sume a cons uc ion ime o no less han app oxima ely 3 yea s o he ypical 150 MW plan aken as
a e e ence om EIA da a o on-si e ac i i ies, excluding he pa conce ning de elopmen ac i i ies
and es ing, measu emen , and inspec ion o he plan ’s comme cial s a -up.
d) - Subjec o e inemen s du ing he design phase, i seems easonable o p elimina ily assume he
cons uc ion schedule shown in Fig. 15.
Fo simula ion pu poses, he es ima ed cos s o each ype o plan ha e been uni o mly dis ibu ed
ac oss he espec i e imescales assumed in he a o emen ioned p og ams in o de o calcula e he
indica o s selec ed o e alua ion shown in he a ious g aphs and ables. By e ining he design and
planning o achie e a p elimina y uni o m dis ibu ion o cos s o e ime, mo e a ge ed solu ions
can be adop ed.
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Figu e 11: When dealing wi h A i icially C ea ed Heads: Op imize P ojec s wi h he highes possible geode ic heads o educe he cos s
o Basins, Pens ocks, Machine y, E c. – Small Heads wi h High Flow Ra es ypically inc ease In es men Cos s.
Figu e 12: Choice o hyd aulic u bine ype acco ding o head and low a e.
Figu e 13: An indica i e gene al implemen a ion p og am o he Hyd o pa - (P elimina y e e ence o he Ca e Solu ion as in he igu e
below)
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Figu e 14: Ca e solu ion s. a he oo o he dam solu ion.
Figu e 15: An indica i e gene al implemen a ion p og am o he pho o ol aic pa .
2.8 A gene al no e on cos es ima ion acco ding o he li e a u e
A his poin i appea s e iden ha he eliabili y o an es ima e o a p ojec is highe he mo e e ined
he de elopmen phase is, ha is, he mo e one mo es owa ds a inal ”bankable easibili y” s udy
comple e wi h enginee ing p ojec , calcula ions and necessa y d awings, wi h business planning and
p o i abili y and isk analysis ( o isk analysis see § 11). Below is an exce p om he men ioned
UNIDO Manual o he P epa a ion o Feasibili y S udies o Indus ial P ojec s. I can be seen ha in
he ini ial s udy phase, he ma gin o e o can be as high as ±30%, and in he ”bankable easibili y”
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phase, whe e he es ima e is calcula ed based on a bill o quan i ies de i ed om he basic enginee ing
design, i is educed o ±10%. The same Manual lis s he cos s o p e-in es men s udies exp essed
as pe cen ages o in es men cos s, which a e app oxima ely as ollows:
•0.2-1.0 pe cen o an oppo uni y s udy
•0.25-1.5 pe cen o a p e- easibili y s udy
•1.0-3.0 pe cen o a easibili y s udy o small and medium-sized en e p ises (SMEs) indus ial
p ojec s
•0.2-1.0 pe cen o la ge indus ies o la ge p ojec s wi h sophis ica ed echnologies o challeng-
ing ma ke s
Figu e 16: Sou ce: h ps://www.unido.o g/si es/de aul / iles/ iles/2021-02/manual_ o _ he_p epa a ion_o _indus ial_
easibili y_s udies.pd
2.9 Fo an En i onmen al Impac Assessmen
A 2019-2021 UNECE (Uni ed Na ions Economic Commission o Eu ope) s udy [29], o en ci ed as
a e e ence bu s ill in d a o m ( he link o which is included in he e e ences), examines he
en i e ”li e cycle” o a ious elec ici y gene a ion op ions. I con i ms a lowe en i onmen al impac
and highe con e sion e iciency o all enewables and nuclea powe compa ed o ossil- ueled
plan s. Rega ding hyd oelec ic powe , in pa icula , plan s wi h a capaci y o up o 360 MW appea
o be pa icula ly no ewo hy. Only Figu es 17 and 18, which demons a e his, a e shown below
in exce p s, bu he s udy is much mo e comp ehensi e and con ains signi ican elemen s wo hy
o b oad sha ing pa icula ly in case o compa a i e en i onmen al impac assessmen ... (When
analyzing he g aph, i may be use ul o emembe ha 1kWh =3.6 MJ.).
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Figu e 17
Figu e 18
2.10 Need o isk analysis and e alua ion o possible mi iga ion
I ’s no coincidence ha among p ojec isk assessmen s, he mos common ones include sensi i i y
assessmen s o po en ial cos and schedule o e uns (cos & schedule o e uns), as well as he isks
o in e es a e luc ua ions on inancing. Fu he mo e, i ’s no jus isks ha di ec ly impac cos s
and schedules (due o di icul ies wi h on-si e wo k o in manu ac u ing plan s) ha need o be
conside ed, bu also hose o a mo e echnical na u e, such as he ollowing:
•- basic enginee ing isk: his can be mi iga ed by using quali ied and ce i ied designe s wi h
p o en and consolida ed expe ience, i.e., hose who ha e success ully designed simila sys-
ems. Con ac ual a angemen s such as ” u nkey” o BOT (Build Ope a e & T ans e ), o e en
insu ance-based ones, can ce ainly help mi iga e his isk, bu in he e en o an ad e se e en
du ing cons uc ion, a con ac ual liabili y may need o be en o ced h ough legal means; hus,
he p ojec isks being damaged in any case while awai ing cou decisions;
•cons uc ion isk: wha has been said o he design isk applies, bu applied o ce i ied and
quali ied con ac o s and/o supplie s, EPC Con ac o s, who ha e al eady buil simila sys ems;
•geological isk: which can be mi iga ed by eso ing o p e en i e loca ion s udies and on-si e
in es iga ions (geological, geognos ic, geo echnical, hyd ogeological analyses, e c.) which a e
also necessa y in he design phase and al eady pa ially ou lined in a desi able P elimina y
Geological Repo ;
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•seismic isk: he same applies as o geological isk;
•hyd ogeological isk: he same applies as o geological isk.
•To p ope ly ex end he e iew, i is impo an no o o ge :
•ope a ional isks: hese a e encoun e ed du ing he ope a ion o he plan a e comme cial
s a -up, bu be o e he plan has been ully epaid, o example, due o p olonged down ime
due o se ice dis up ions, in e up ions, main enance, de ec s, hidden aul s, e c.;
• eimbu semen isks: hese a e linked no only o po en ial luc ua ions in he inancial ma ke ,
bu also o legisla i e changes ha impac he plan unde cons uc ion o al eady buil ;
•poli ical, social, and en i onmen al isks: hese we e o en o e looked in he pas because hey
could no be measu ed excep quali a i ely. Today, howe e , h ough mul idimensional da a
analysis, hese oo a e beginning o appea as measu able en i ies;
Ul ima ely, isks a e mi iga ed h ough expe ise and o esigh in planning and design, and whe e
possible by ans e ing hem o o he s h ough insu ance (e.g. all- isk policies) o con ac ually,
which no only leads o inc eased p ojec cos s, bu could also lead o endless li iga ion o legal
dispu es and a bi a ion p oceedings in he e en o he ac ual occu ence o ha isk, so ha he
chosen emedy may become wo se han he e il i was in ended o cu e.
3 Conclusions
This e iew o an ini ial p elimina y s udy om 2023 (wi h cons an -p ice alua ions) o a gene al
o e iew o he opics and sys ems discussed he ein was conduc ed wi h he aim o p o iding,
h ough exce p s, a b oade and mo e ma u e iew o ce ain aspec s, which a e hoped o u he
esea ch, as well as indus ial de elopmen . This 2023 s udy, p e iously unpublished, also con ains
he simula ions epo ed he e, in pa , on he six possible sys em op ions s udied o a speci ic p ojec .
The p ojec i sel is s ill unde de elopmen and in ol es se e al municipali ies in sou he n Lazio.
Ob iously, hose p esen ed he e a e only app oxima e and indica i e esul s, and hei app oxima-
ion e o s can only be educed by e ining he analysis and p og essing h ough he a ious p ojec
de elopmen phases. This equi es an ini ial and comp ehensi e oppo uni y/scope-s udy, a subse-
quen p e- easibili y s udy, and inally a bankable easibili y s udy, comple e wi h basic design and
enginee ing, as well as analyses o educe isks and secu e he necessa y inancing o cons uc ion
on a speci ic and sui able si e. Planning accu a ely all necessa y licensing and pe mi s is essen ial o
a oid ime and cos o e uns.
I can be said ha simila p ojec s, inspi ed by he abo e c i e ia, a e highly ecommended, gi en
he high ene gy dependence o he EU, and I aly in pa icula (72% ins ead o 78% is nowadays an
objec i e igu e). I is also objec i e ha wo 50 MW plan s, wi h o e lapping p oduc ion, one wind
and he o he pho o ol aic, oge he p oduce as much as an ideal plan o ano he ype ope a ing a
a powe o ∼25 MW (see Ri is a Ene gia 2021 04). Due o hei in e mi ency, wind and pho o ol aic
c ea e p oblems o egula ion and g id s abili y, especially in an in e connec ed g id like he Eu o-
pean one, whe e ”a p oblem wi h ene gy exchanges in he Balkans has epe cussions on he en i e
con inen ” (see RSE esea ch ci ed). Bu such a gumen s canno be limi ed o speci ic o local ene gy
needs and mus a he be ex ended o he planning o global needs.
A eas wi h limi ed in e connec ion o isola ion, whe e signi ican expansion o pho o ol aic and wind
powe is desi ed (e.g., Sicily, bu no limi ed o i ), should ocus mo e a en ion on g id egula ion
and s abili y. Gi en a o al a ailable powe o “x” GW (no ully u ilized, due o i s ” ossil” na u e),
a o al o ”x” GW canno be planned om wind and pho o ol aic sou ce, which a e in e mi en in
p oduc ion. Unde such condi ions, GRID AND ELECTRICITY SERVICE STABILITY is unlikely o
be achie ed, and a specialized analysis o he speci ic elec ici y sys em and i s g id is o be conside ed
manda o y.
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Howe e , by o e coming he di icul ies ha eme ge, we can educe he high ene gy dependence by
means o sola ene gy, especially wi h pho o ol aic sys ems in sui able and selec ed a eas (e.g., in
cen al and sou he n I aly), as pe he op imal zones highligh ed on he map o I aly in he Appendix
1. Bu a he same ime is compulso y o acili a e g id egula ion and s abili y a he expense o
he sun wi h pumped hyd oelec ic plan s, wi h daily se ice ( o a numbe o hou s depending on
he case, e.g. 7 hou s) and hyd o- ese oi s o adequa e olume o he ex ac able powe and he
possible low a e and a ailable head. Pumping mus be powe ed by pho o ol aic sys ems ha eed
ene gy in o he g id du ing he day, o be aken om he g id o pumping du ing he nigh (10-12
hou s). In p ac ice, he di e ence in day/nigh demand would be exploi ed o minimize he need o
s o age.
Fig. 7 shows he concep ual scheme o he in eg a ed plan . I is a pumped-s o age plan wi h ese -
oi s o daily se ice (≥1.5 Mm3). The uppe ese oi is illed a nigh and emp ied du ing he day;
ice e sa, he lowe ese oi . A 300 MW pho o ol aic sys em can powe a 100 MW pumped-s o age
hyd oelec ic plan wi h a powe a io o app oxima ely 3. In o he wo ds, he pho o ol aic sys em
and he hyd oelec ic sys em a e bo h connec ed o each o he and o he elec ici y ansmission g id
and he a io o hei capaci y has o be∼3.
Fo a 100 MW pumped-s o age plan , a p og am wi h 3 yea s o de elopmen and design is p e-
limina y assumed, and 9 yea s o on-si e cons uc ion o an unde g ound powe plan , which can
be educed o 6 yea s o a dam-based plan , whe e possible, acco ding o geology and o he cha -
ac e is ics o he si e. We ha e no gone in o de ail he e because i depends g ea ly bo h on he
ype o p ojec and he si e. Fo he 300 MW pho o ol aic plan , a p og am wi h one yea o p ojec
de elopmen and h ee yea s o on-si e cons uc ion is assumed. Fo a 400 MW plan , a he han a
300 MW plan , i can be assumed ha he p og am will no a y signi ican ly, as he cons uc ion pe-
iod is b oad and essen ially linea . The e- o e, he du a ion depends only on he esou ces employed.
The able and g aphs in Fig. 11 show ha , o he same powe ou pu , p ojec s wi h high geode ic
heads and low low a es should be a o ed, as his educes he olumes o he uppe and lowe
basins, pipe-lines, and u bine-pumps used, hus educing in es men cos s, acili a ing he p ojec ’s
bankabili y, and con aining p oduc ion cos s. This esul s in lowe p ices o ene gy ed in o he g id.
Fo he a ious plan op ions conside ed in he a o emen ioned 2023 s udy, he da a used and he
esul s a e epo ed in Summa ies 1 and 2 (Tables 5 and 6, espec i ely). Op ion 1 can only exis in
combina ion wi h 2 o 3, o ob ious powe easons. An economic analysis and a simula ed p o -
i abili y analysis we e pe o med o each op ion. In he absence o a eal enginee ing p ojec , he
o e nigh cos s p o ided by EIA (US Adminis a ion) we e used. The e o e, he esul s in summa ies
1 and 2 and he o he ables a e only p elimina y indica i e. To build 100 MW o hyd oelec ic powe
(wi h nigh ime pumping, 7-hou day ime se ice,∼1.5 Mm3 o ese oi ), 300 MW o pho o ol aic
ene gy is equi ed on 450 hec a es o land (equi alen o an a ea o 2.1x2.1 km). The p oduc ion cos s
calcula ed in Summa y 1 a e close o ma ke cos s, and he e o e he ma ke p ices o he ene gy
p oduced make bankabili y di icul , al hough he loan epaymen se ice appea s assu ed (bu wi h
high isk and low p o i abili y).
Fo he P o i abili y Analysis, ou ypical p ojec e alua ion indica o s we e calcula ed: NPV, IRR,
BREAK-EVEN (B eak-E en Poin ), and DSCR (Deb Se ice Co e age Ra io). These indica o s all
on alues ha can make he p ojec bankable i he ene gy p oduced is placed on he g id a p ices
highe han he cu en ma ke . A b eak h ough in his ega d can be achie ed bo h by he geological
and enginee ing op imiza ions achie able wi h he p ojec ’s de elopmen , and by he ca e ul and
app op ia e unc ioning and use o ETS (Emission T ading Sys em) emission ce i ica es o he CO2
a oided by he p ojec i sel .
I should be no ed, howe e , ha his is a p elimina y oppo uni y s udy based on o e nigh e e ence
cos s, subjec o possible e o ma gins in accu acy, making he esul s indica i e and no exhaus i e.
None heless, we can speak o a con adic ion be ween ma ke ene gy p ices and p ojec bankabili y,
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