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Is Small Beau i ul?
Lishan Des a, PhD
Collin College
Plano, Texas
Pape P esen ed a he Annual Mee ing o he
Midwes Poli ical Science Associa ion
Chicago, IL
Ap il 6 h, 2018
© TLD, 2018 - 2058. Unau ho ized use and/o duplica ion o his ma e ial wi hou exp ess and
w i en pe mission om his si e’s au ho and/o owne is s ic ly p ohibi ed. Exce p s and links
may be used, p o ided ha ull and clea c edi is gi en o Teddy L. Des a and wi h app op ia e
and speci ic di ec ion o he o iginal con en .
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Abs ac
Fo de eloping coun ies, la ge s a e size means g ea e cul u al di e si y and co e-pe iphe y
based de elopmen and equi y p oblems. Hence, “la ge size" is hypo hesized o be a d ag on
na ion-, s a e-, and democ acy-building p ocesses. On he o he hand, “small size’’ is
hypo hesized o os e hese p ocesses (i) by acili a ing exchange and in e dependence among
di e se social g oups, (ii) by enabling apid esponsi eness and public se ice p o ision by he
go e nmen , and (iii) by enhancing he public’s abili y o o ganize and lobby he go e nmen o
change.
On wo coun s, his s udy is di e en om p e ious s udies which in es iga ed he size o
coun ies. Fi s , many s udies ei he used popula ion as a measu e o coun y size, o e en when
hey used land a ea, hey used i as a dependen a iable. This s udy uses land a ea as a measu e
o size and uses i as i s main explana o y a iable. Secondly, by a guing ha wha is being
ques ioned abou he e ec s o la ge size can be mi iga ed by demog aphy, he s udy also
in es iga es he e ec s o popula ion se lemen pa e ns. The e o e, i uses popula ion
concen a ion and u baniza ion a e as al e na i e dependen a iables o in es iga e he mo e
nuanced aspec o coun y size.
The s udy analyzes c oss-sec ional da a o some 137 coun ies o he yea 2006. Resul s om
wo-way and eg ession analyses show ha land a ea, popula ion densi y, and u baniza ion a e
all ha e he hypo hesized e ec on poli ical s abili y and go e nmen e ec i eness. Howe e ,
he expec ed impac o geog aphy and demog aphy a iables on democ acy is gene ally absen .
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Na ion-, S a e-, and Democ acy-building: Is Small Beau i ul?
In oduc ion
Does size o a coun y has any impac on poli y quali y, in e ms o na ion-, s a e-, and
democ acy-building? Does small compa ed o la ge size (o , ice e sa) p omo e poli ical
s abili y, sense o na ionhood among di e se g oups, go e nmen e ec i eness in he o m o
public se ices, and democ acy? I is such conce ns in mind ha Robe Dahl and Edwa d Tu e
ask he ollowing ques ion in hei seminal book, “Size and Democ acy”:
A e [ ] di e ences in popula ion o in any o he dimension o size— a ea o example—
o any impo ance? Mo e speci ically, is “democ acy” ela ed in any way o “size’? How
la ge should a poli ical sys em be in o de o acili a e a ional con ol by i s ci izens?
Wha a e he compa a i e ad an ages and disad an ages enjoyed by poli ical sys ems o
di e en sizes? (Dahl and Tu e 1973: 1)
Fo example, one majo p oblem la ge s a es ace is he isk o b eakup due o p essu es a ising
om di e si y. Compa ed o smalle s a es, la ge coun ies a e mo e likely o ha e a
he e ogeneous popula ion in e ms o p e e ences, cul u es, and languages. The issue o
he e ogenei y o p e e ences is signi ican because “Belonging o a coun y implies ag eeing o a
se o policies, be hey edis ibu i e schemes, public goods, o o eign ade. [And] wi h inc ease
he e ogenei y he e a e mo e indi iduals o egions ha a e less sa is ied by he cen al
go e nmen policies. Indeed many iolen domes ic con lic s a ound he wo ld associa ed wi h
acial, eligious, and linguis ic he e ogenei y ha e h ea ened he s abili y o na ional
go e nmen s” (Alesina and Spolao e 2003:4-5).
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The pas se e al yea s ha e seen esu gence in democ acy, bu also a he same ime inc eases in
con lic om na ionalism and e hnic di ide. Di e si y can pose a se ious isk o he su i al o a
s a e as wi nessed in he cases o cons i u ionally democ a ic egimes in S i Lanka, Lebanon, and
Nige ia. The need o build na ions and o hold oge he e hnically plu al s a es has jus i ied in
many places a ound he wo ld imposi ions o au ho i a ian ule (Diamond and Pla ne 1994: ix-
x).
Popula ion Concen a ion and U baniza ion
Gi en he possibili y ha di e si y can h ea en he uni y and s abili y o a coun y, one
impo an ques ion o ask will be whe he u baniza ion can help o minimize he isk o disuni y
due o dis ance among g oups and dissa is ac ion wi h go e nmen se ice. Acco ding o
sociologis s u baniza ion has he po en ial o wo k as a mel ing-po o c ea e a new u ban o
mode n iden i y among di e se g oups. U baniza ion os e s powe ul social o ces and p ocesses
o mode niza ion ha shape, in a new way, he social iden i y and psychological p edisposi ions
o people. U ban cen e s help he e ogeneous social g oups o shed hei kinship-based
ela ionships, exchanging hem o se e al c oss-cu ing and o e lapping associa ions based on
p o essional, economic, social, o ideological a ini ies. U ban cen e s se e as i ual mel ing
po s o c ea e a common na ional iden i y, by po en ially ob ia ing con lic -laden kinship-based
he e ogenei y. The homogeniza ion e ec o u ban cen e s, he e o e, holds a ay o hope o
coun ies which su e om he p oblems o e hnic, linguis ic, o eligious di e si y. As Alesina
and Spolao e (2003:4-6) obse e, “Homogenous poli ies unc ion mo e ha moniously in bo h
la ge and small coun ies.” Does u baniza ion help o answe his pe ennial wo y o poli ical
scien is s: “How can pa icula is ic and o en an agonis ic g oup iden i ies be econciled wi h he
uni ying mission o he mode n s a e? Mo e especially, how can his be done in a democ a ic
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s a e” (Diamond and Pla ne 1994: xi ). This s udy ies o answe whe he u baniza ion ul ils
he “uni ying mission o he mode n s a e.”
Theo e ical F amewo k
Dahl and Tu e (1973:12-15) make in e es ing claims ela ed o coun y size and poli y quali y.
1. Membe s end o be mo e homogenous in smalle sys ems; and mo e di e se in la ge
sys ems (Dahl and Tu e 1973:92). Which means ha smalle coun ies a e likely o be
mo e homogenous wi h espec o belie s, alues, and goals. Con e sely, la ge
democ acies a e likely o exhibi di e si y in belie s, alues, goals, social and economic
cha ac e is ics and occupa ions (Dahl and Tu e 1973:13-14).
2. Smalle democ acies a e mo e likely o gene a e loyal y o a single in eg a ed
communi y. Whe eas, la ge democ acies a e mo e likely o gene a e mul iple loyal ies o
a ious “communi ies” (Dahl and Tu e 1973:14).
3. Smalle democ acies make i easie o a ci izen o pe cei e a ela ion be ween his own
sel -in e es o unde s anding o he good and a public o gene al in e es s o o he s.
Con e sely la ge democ acies p o ide mo e oppo uni y o di e gence o iews on
indi idual, g oup, and gene al in e es s and goals (Dahl and Tu e 1973:14).
This issue o he e ogenei y o p e e ences is signi ican because “Belonging o a coun y
implies ag eeing o a se o policies, be hey edis ibu i e schemes, public goods, o
o eign ade. [And] wi h inc ease he e ogenei y he e a e mo e indi iduals o egions
ha a e less sa is ied by he cen al go e nmen policies. Indeed many iolen domes ic
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con lic s a ound he wo ld associa ed wi h acial, eligious, and linguis ic he e ogenei y
ha e h ea ened he s abili y o na ional go e nmen s” (Alesina and Spolao e 2003:4-5).
4. Leade s a e likely o be mo e esponsi e o ci izen iews in smalle democ acies o mo e
easons han his claim can be ue o la ge democ acies (Dahl and Tu e 1973:92).
5. Smalle democ acies make possible g ea e speed and accu acy o communica ion among
membe s o he sys em. They p o ide mo e oppo uni ies o all ci izens o gain
knowledge needed o decisions by di ec obse a ion and expe ience (Dahl and Tu e
1973:92).
6. G oup con lic s a e in equen bu explosi e in smalle sys ems; bu equen bu less
explosi e in la ge sys ems. And g oup con lic s a e mo e likely o pola ize he whole
communi y in smalle sys ems, bu less likely o do so in la ge sys ems (Dahl and Tu e
1973:92).
Filling he Resea ch Gap
A leas he e wo de ailed, book leng h, s udies ha in es iga e he ela ionship be ween size and
egime ype. The i s wo k by Dahl and Tu e (1973) “Size and Democ acy” is g oundb eaking
in his line o esea ch. The au ho s gene a e se e al excellen assump ions and axioms ha
es ablish a heo e ical ounda ion o explo e he linkage be ween geog aphy and demog aphy and
egime quali y. Howe e , hey a e mos ly unable o es hei axioms, because as hey say, “we
canno go much beyond heo y because we lack good da a, we none heless make an e o o
o mula e heo y in such a way o help u u e in es iga o s” (Dahl and Tu e 1973:28).
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The o he seminal wo k, “The Size o Na ions” by Alesina and Spolao e (2003), al hough based
much mo e on he heo e ical g oundwo k o Dahl and Tu e (1973), i is mo e empi ical in i s
h us o in es iga ion and ou pu . Howe e , Alesina and Spolao e app oach he p oblem o he
size o na ions om an economics, speci ically public choice heo y, pe spec i e. Thei main
ocus, hence, is o de elop he ma hema ical model ha es ablishes he op imal s a e size gi en
he ade-o poli ies ace be ween coun y-size and enclosing a homogenous p e e ence g oup
(Alesina and Spolao e 2003:3). They no e his dilemma, w i ing, “wi h inc eased he e ogenei y
he e a e mo e indi iduals o egions ha a e less sa is ied by he cen al go e nmen policies.
[…] Conce ns abou he poli ical cos s o la ge and he e ogeneous communi ies go back a long
way in he philosophical and poli ical deba e” (Alesina and Spolao e 2003:4-5). Thei esea ch,
hence, ocuses on in inding a o mula which wo ks ou he ma hema ical ques ion o : “ he
op imal size o a coun y [ ha ] would be cha ac e ized by some op imal poin be ween he
bene i s o size and he cos s o he e ogenei y. This is p ecisely ou s a ing poin ” (Alesina and
Spolao e 2003:7). Thei s udy is wan ing because hei ocus is o assess op imal s a e size o
economic ou comes.
In e es ingly, bo h Dahl & Tu e and Alesina and Spolao e do no use land a ea as hei measu es
o s a e size, bu popula ion o GNP, o bo h. O he s udies which e alua e poli ical ou comes
based on coun y size di e ences ( o example, Ma subayashi 2007; B uckne 2010) use
popula ion size as a measu e o coun y size. Those s udies which use land a ea as he basis o
measu ing he size o a s a e ( o example, Lake and O’Mahony, 2004; and Alesina (2003)
a emp o explain he his o ical, heo e ical, and empi ical easons o he size o na ions. Hence,
in hese wo and simila s udies land size o coun ies is he a iable ha is explained. m
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In sho , empi ical s udies which use land a ea as a measu e o he size o s a es and in u n
in es iga e i s po en ial impac on s a e agili y, go e nance quali y, and egime ype a e nea ly
absen . Equally, empi ical s udies which conside he po en ial impac s o popula ion densi y and
u baniza ion a e on poli ical s abili y, go e nmen e ec i eness, and democ acy a e i ually
absen .
On he o he hand, his s udy in es iga es he impac o coun y size, measu ed in he o m o
land a ea, on poli y quali y ep esen ed by s a e agili y/ poli ical s abili y, go e nance/
go e nmen e ec i eness, and poli y/ democ acy. Mo eo e , he pape p emises ha highe
popula ion densi y and u baniza ion a e i ually sh ink he size o s a es. Based on his
assump ion, he s udy es s he po en ial impac s o popula ion densi y and u baniza ion a e on
poli y quali y.
The s udy p emises i s empi ical analysis on he ollowing heo e ical a gumen s which in u n
a e used o de elop he s udy’s six hypo heses.
Hypo heses
A gumen 1: La ge geog aphic size can mean he dispe sion o people o e a la ge a ea. This
has he po en ial o c ea e egional o sec ional iden i ies, g oup’s g ie ances and eli e
agmen a ion, which all can unde mine na ional cohesion and s a e uni y. Unless handled
h ough ede alism o local go e nance, la ge coun y size can encou age sepa a ism o inc ease
he demand o local au onomy. Due o hese easons, la ge coun y size will no only inc ease
he chance o poli ical ins abili y, bu also can u n he go e nmen o mo e ep essi e me hods
o handle es i e g oups. Hence, la ge coun ies ha e he likelihood o u n o emain
au ho i a ian.
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A gumen 2: Since la ge coun ies ha e mo e bo de ing s a es han a e age, size o a coun y
can inc ease he cos o de ending he s a e. Ha ing se e al coun y neighbo s inc eases he
chances o poli ical ins abili y and s a e agili y o he home-coun y because o c oss-bo de
ela ed issues, such as i eden ism, and in il a ion by sepa a is , e o is , o c iminal g oups. The
esul will be di e ing meage na ional esou ces o he mili a y o bo owing ex e nally o
acqui e mili a y ha dwa e. The secu i y impe a i e o he s a e o ces i o neglec i s economic
de elopmen p ojec s which can o e ime lead o popula g ie ances abou missing economic
oppo uni ies.
A gumen 3: La ge de eloping coun ies su e om co e-pe iphe y p oblem due o une en
economic de elopmen . Go e nmen s o de eloping coun ies will be ex emely challenged o
p o ide adequa e and quali y public se ices o hei a - lung popula ion. De eloping coun ies
a e o en caugh be ween he dilemmas o achie ing apid economic de elopmen ocusing on
po en ially p omising a eas o ealizing economic dis ibu i e jus ice among all egions. The i s
op ion c ea es a sense o neglec among o he egions, while he second op ion sp eads ou
meage esou ces o e a la ge coun y c ea ing disappoin ing esul s o all. Bo h plans lea e a
la ge numbe o people dissa is ied c ea ing he image o an ine ec i e go e nmen .
A gumen 4: la ge coun ies ha e he po en ial o c ea e a di e si ied economy and he bene i s
o exploi ing a la ge domes ic ma ke o d i e economic g ow h and p ospe i y. On he o he
hand, smalle coun ies lacking all hese need o specialize in one economic a ea and o ely on
o eign in es men and ade o d i e g ow h and de elopmen . Hence, smalle coun ies will be
mo e open o o ces o globaliza ion and poli ical openness and e icien go e nmen unc ions in
o de o exploi oppo uni ies he global economy o e s.
Based on A gumen s 1 and 2.
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Indendenpen Va iables
aken om. He e , he highe he sco e, he mo e poli ically s able is he coun y. sco e in 0-100
scale, whe e 100 ep esen s o Peace measu es o on one hand and s a e agili y, and
democ acy on he o he hand, I ha e c ea ed ou ca ego ies.
Because o wide a ia ion in size (sd. de . 939621.4), o g aphical and eg ession analysis, I
ha e used he na u al log o he land a ea measu e o coun ies.
Resul s
Table 1: Rela ionship be ween Coun y Size and Poli ical S abili y (N=137) (2006)
Sou ce: Wo ld Bank, WDI & WGI
Coun ies desc ibed as as la ge and e y la ge o hei size (i.e., land a ea g ea e han 155,00 sq.
km), ha e a p obabli y mo e han 40% o be poli ically uns able. These coun ies sco e less han -
0.81 poin s on he Wo ld Go e nance Indica o -2.5 o 2.5 scale. On he o he hand, smalle
coun ies (i.e., land a ea less han 24,000 sq.km), show less han 10% chance o poli ical
ins abili y. The ela ionship be ween coun y size and poli ical s abili y is s a is ically signi ican .
The smalle he size o a coun y, he mo e likely ha i could be s able, and ice e se.
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The same analysis is eplica ed below (Tabel 2) using a di e en measu e o s a e s abili y.
Based on he Fund o Peace measu e o S a e F agili y Indica o , a s ais ically signi ican
ela ion is ound be ween s a e size and poli ical s abili y. He e again, all o he hings being
cons an , he smalle he s a e size, he less likely i o su e om s a e ailu e.
Table 2: Rela ionship be ween Coun y Size and S a e F agili y (N=132) (2006)
Sou ces: Wo ld Bank WDI and The Fund o Peace
Acco dingly, among small coun ies (i.e., land a ea less han 24,000 sq. km.), he p obabili y o
seeing he highes deg ee o s a e ailu e is less han 10%. Tha gi es indica ions ha small
coun ies such as Lebanon, Qa a , Kuwai , Djibou i, and Jamaica a e ela i ely poli ically s able.
On he o he hand, mo e han a hi d o he coun ies wi h mo e land han 23,000 sq. km. a e
ca ego ized as mos agile. Howe e , he analysis also poin s owa ds a ce ain pa adox. Beyond
a ce ain coun y size, he deg ee o poli ical ins abili y o la ge s a es alls (see Figu e 1).
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Figu e 1: Rela ionship be ween Coun y Size and S a e F agili y
70 75 80 85
1234
Coun y Size (log sq. km)
Sou ces: Wo ld Bank WDI and he Fund o Peace
In gene al, he e is a posi i e ela ionship be ween s a e size and s a e agili y (Figu e 1). This
could be because e y la ge s a es a e ei he (i) a nea homogenous popula ion, (ii) mos o hei
people li es in ew u ban a eas, o (iii) hey mi iga e poli ical ins abili y h ough ede alism o
local go e nance. The o he po en ial explana ion is he a gumen Alesina and Spolao e (2005)
ad ance ha beyond a ce ain poin , coun y size bes ows he ad an ages o economies o scale.
La ge coun ies can handle a ious p essu e on he s a e h ough decen aliza ion and
democ a iza ion; o , i esou ce ich, h ough s a e la gess ha can buy indi idual and g oup
acquiesces.
Coun y size and Go e nance
Does he size o coun y limi he e ec i eness o go e nmen in p o iding basic se ices o he
public and hence o be in e u n pe cei ed by hem as compe en ? The e is p elimina y e idence
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he e ha he smalle he size o a s a e, he mo e likely i is o ha e an e ec i e go e nmen , and
ice e se.
Figu e 2: Goodness o Fi : Coun y Size and Go e nmen E ec i eness (N=137) (2006)
-.6 -.4 -.2
0.2
1234
Coun y Size (log sq. km)
Sou ces: Wo ld Bank, WDI and WGI
Table 3: Rela ionship be ween Coun y Size and Go e nmen E ec i eness (N=137) (2006)
Sou ce: Wo ld Bank: WDI & WGI
The g aphical analysis sugges s a po en ial nega i e ela ionship be ween coun y size and
go e nmen e ec i eness. The wo-way analysis con i ms ha such a ela ionship exis s and is
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s a is ically signi ican . Tha means size o coun y nega i ely a ec s he capaci y o
go e nmen s o p o ide he demanded amoun s o public goods o hei populace. This si ua ion
can lead o a co e-pe iphe y p oblem as i is usually ou lying egions which ail o ecei e
adequa e go e nmen se ices. Dissa is ied g oup o people can pose dange o he s a e because
he g oup assumes ha hey ha e been in en ionally neglec ed by hei go e nmen .
Coun y Size and Democ acy
O he hings cons an , a e smalle coun ies mo e democ a ic? Yes, i is mo e han acciden al ha
smalle coun ies a e ela i ely mo e democ a ic han geog aphically la ge coun ies. The likely
dispe sion o he populace o e a la ge space limi s hei communica ion and o ganiza ional
capaci y o engage in poli ics. Mo eo e , a la ge geog aphic space has he endency o
encou age egional and e hnic iden i ies and di isions ha may slow down he conce ed
mo emen o he whole na ion owa ds democ a ic change. The egime in powe may ind
egional un es o e hnic aspi a ions a cause o ini ia e au ho i a ian laws. On he o he hand,
la ge popula ion concen a ion, as in u ban cen e s, could lead collec i e ac ion collabo a ion, o
sol e common poli ical and adminis a i e p oblems, by making he go e nmen mo e
accoun able o he people.
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Figu e 3: Goodness o Fi : Coun y Size and Democ acy (N=137) (2006)
4567
1234
Coun y Size (log sq. km)
Sou ces: Wo ld Bank WDI and F eedom House
Table 4: Rela ionship be ween Coun y Size and Democacy (N=137) (2006)
Sou ces: Wo ld Bank WDI and F eedom House
The g aph e eals in e es ing ela ionship. Beyond a ce ain poin , la ge size s a s o ha e a
posi i e ela ionship wi h he le el o democ acy in a coun y. This may sugges ha possibili y
ha in p ac ice o poli ics he e oo exis s he equi alen o “economies o scale”, whe ein he
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la ge he poli y (all o he hings emaining cons an ) can deli e poli ical goods, such as
eedoms and igh s, o he populace mo e e icien ly. This can be a possibili y as Alesina and
Spolao e (2003) indica e coun ies o en o e come he nega i e impac s o la ge size by
con igu e he s a e as a ede al sys em. A ede al sys em c ea es he bes o wo wo lds o
di e se communi ies li ing in a la ge na ion. Fede alism allows he e ogeneous g oups o exploi
he ad an ages o being pa s o small egional s a e and a he same ime belonging o he “la ge
ede al s a e. In some policy ju isdic ions (such as educa ion, law and o de , and u ili ies) he
egional s a e se up has ad an age, while in o he policy a eas (such as de ense, ade, and
o eign ela ions) he bigge ede al a angemen emains a ac i e.
Popula ion Concen a ion and he S a e
Some imes wha ma e s migh no be he size o he coun y, bu he pa e n o popula ion
dis ibu ion o e he land. I in a la ge coun y, mos o he people li e in u ban a eas,
pa icula ly concen a ed in a ew la ge ci ies ha means less a p oblem in s a e and democ acy
building, a be e chance o de elop na ional cohesion. Bu he ideal is small coun y wi h a high
u baniza ion a e.
On he ex emes, a leas we can imagine ou majo scena ios in size-u baniza ion combina ions.
The i s ype is a la ge coun y wi h a high u baniza ion a e, such as B azil and A gen ina, wi h
u baniza ion a e o 88% and 90%, espec i ely. The e a e also la ge coun ies wi h ela i ely
low u baniza ion a e, such as India (30%) and Congo Democ a ic Republic (38%). On he o he
side, he e a e small coun ies such as Singapo e and Mal a whose u baniza ion a e is mo e han
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90%. Bu he e a e also small coun ies such as T inidad and Tobago and Bu undi whose
u baniza ion a e does no exceed 10%.
I is possible o c ea e an index ha e lec s he pa e n o coun y size and u baniza ion a e
combina ions. In Table 5, he a iable “popula ion concen a ion” is an in e ac ion e m based on
ou ca ego ies o coun y size and ou le els o u baniza ion a e. The esul ing 9 pe mu a ions
a e nex collapsed in o h ee main ca ego ies o ease o analysis using wo-way c oss ab me hod.
Guided by he assump ion ha (keeping all o he hings cons an ) a small coun y wi h a high
u baniza ion a e will ha e he g ea es chance o poli ical s abili y, as well as go e nmen
e ec i eness and democ acy building, he index assigns i he highes possible alue. On he
con a y, he index gi es he lowes sco e o a la ge coun y wi h low u baniza ion a e.
Popula ion Concen a ion and S a e S abili y
Figu e 4: Goodness o Fi : Popula ion Concen a ion and S a e F agili y (N=132) (2006)
70 75 80 85 90
11.5 22.5 3
Popula ion Concen a ion
Sou ces: Wo ld Bank WDI and he Fund o Peace
24
The p elimina y analysis (Figu e 4) p o ides some suppo o he heo e ical claim ha a
compac s a e (i.e., small and highly u banized) has a be e chance o expe iencing poli ical
s abili y compa ed o a la ge coun y whose popula ion is hinly sca e ed o e he land. A leas
o eason, he s a e inds easie o exe cise powe , o p o ide public se ices, and o be
esponsi e o he people’s needs when he coun y is small o mos o he people a e in
concen a ed in a ew u ban cen e s.
Table 5: Rela ionship be ween Popula ion Concen a ion and Poli ical S abili y (N=137) (2006)
Sou ce: Wo ld Bank, WDI and WGI
The wo-way analysis (Table 5) s a is ically e i ies he heo e ical expec a ion ha small is
beau i ul o ensu e poli ical s abili y and s a e su i al. Coun ies which a e designa ed as small
and highly u banized has only abou 11% chance o seeing poli ical ins abili y compa ed o he
54% chance o la ge s a es wi h low u baniza ion a e. On he o he hand, mo e han 46% o
coun ies small and highly u banized a e highly s able, whe eas only abou a qua e o he la ge
and li le u banized s a es a e so. These indings ha e huge implica ions o a coun y’s
economic u u es, as o example, in highly globalizing wo ld whe e o eign di ec in es men s
(FDI) looking o hos coun ies, hey look o poli ically mo e s able coun ies. In ha sense,
small and highly u banized coun ies ha e an inhe en ad an age o win in he compe i ion o
25
FDI. This possibili y is u he enhanced once we also conside he compa a i e me i s o
“compac ” and u banized coun ies in unning an e ec i e go e nmen .
Popula ion Concen a ion and Go e nmen E ec i eness
Figu e 4: Goodness o Fi : Popula ion Concen a ion and Go e nmen E ec i eness (N=137)
(2006)
-.8 -.6 -.4 -.2
0.2
11.5 22.5 3
Popula ion Concen a ion
Sou ces: Wo ld Bank, WDI and WGI
A i s blush we no ice ha (Figu e 4) he e is a posi i e ela ionship be ween being a compac
coun y (in e ms o small size and u baniza ion) and unning an e ec i e go e nmen .
32
U baniza ion Ra e and Democ acy
Table 9: Rela ionship be ween U baniza ion and Democ acy (F eedom House) (N=137) (2006)
Sou ces: Wo ld Bank WDI and F eedom House
The ela ionship be ween u baniza ion a e and democ acy using he F eedom House measu e
(Table 9) is no s a is ically signi ican . I epea he analysis using wi h Poli y IV da ase which
weighs hea ily on he side o he ins i u ional and p ocedu al cha ac e o democ acy, compa ed
o igh s-based measu e o F eedom House.
Table 10: Rela ionship be ween U baniza ion and Democ acy (Poli y IV) (N=137) (2006)
Sou ces: Wo ld Bank WDI and Poli y IV
He e again he ela ionship be ween u baniza ion a e and democ acy is enuous. Bo h esul s
de y mode niza ion heo y’s expec a ion abou u baniza ion and democ acy. The disappea ing
esul may be due o wo ac o s. Fi s , his could be ied o he momen in his o y. The wa e o
democ a iza ion unleashed by he end o he Cold Wa , by mid-2000s has s a ed o s all, and
33
e en in many places s a ed o e e se as au ho i a ianism seemed o e i e ac oss he globe.3
The second eason could be he “ esou ce cu se” democ acy su e s. Many aw ma e ial ich
small coun ies a e au ho i a ian. These coun ies buy he suppo o hei populace h ough
la gess o en o ce s abili y h ough s a e ep essi e appa a us.
Size and Na ion-building
I he axiom ha a la ge coun y size p emises mo e he e ogenei y, does i ollow ha such
he e ogenei y also leads o mo e heigh ened g oup g ie ance and possibly o g ea e eli es
ac ionaliza ion? I we ake he le els o g oup g ie ance and ac ionalized eli es as he
measu e o na ional uni y (i.e., na ion-building), how much do hese condi ions (o , ends) a e
a ec ed by geog aphic and demog aphic a iables? Does la ge size os e sec ionalism, hence
di e gen policy p e e ences, which can be a sou ce o con lic in he poli y? Theo y p o ides a
“yes” answe ; bu wha does empi ical analysis show?
3 The s alling o e e sal o democ acy may be obse ed in la e yea da a. Fo example,
F eedom House (2018) epo s ha o he las 12 yea s democ acy has been on he e ea . The
end seems o pe sis o some ime gi en he na ionalis and populis backlash obse ed in
many Eu opean elec ions.
34
Table 11: Rela ionship be ween Coun y Size and G oups G ie ances Index (N=137) (2006)
Sou ces: Wo ld Bank WDI and he Fund o Peace
Clea ly, small coun ies, compa ed o la ge coun ies, show lowe scale o g oup g ie ances.
This can be aken as posi i e indica ion ha smalle coun ies ha e succeeded in sol ing he
p oblems o he e ogeneous g oups o ha hey a e on hei way o e ec i ely c ea e one na ion
ou o many. Gi en he ac ha i is g oups’ g ie ances ha la e can e up in o iolence and
sepa a ism, his indings p o ide some e idence ha small coun ies ha e he po en ial o su i e
as s a es compa ed o hei la ge coun ies coun e pa s.
Table 12: Rela ionship be ween Coun y Size and G oups G ie ances Index (N=137) (2006)
Sou ces: Wo ld Bank WDI and he Fund o Peace
The e ec o coun y size on eli es ac ionaliza ion is no as s ong as heo e ically expec ed.
35
Figu e 8: Goodness o Fi : G oup G ie ances and Coun y Size (N=132) (2006)
5.5
6
6.5
7
1234
Coun y Size (log sq. km)
Sou ces: Wo ld Bank WDI and he Fund o Peace
Figu e 9: Goodness o Fi : Coun y Size and F ac ionalized Eli es Index (N=132) (2006)
6
6.5
7
7.5
1 2 3 4
Coun y Size (log sq. km)
Sou ces: Wo ld Bank WDI and he Fund o Peace
36
U baniza ion and F ac ionaliza ion
As a ious sociological heo ies sugges does u baniza ion lead indi iduals om kinship-based
mechanical solida i y o g oup’s c oss-cu ing and o e lapping o ganic solida i y? This is he
assump ion ha h ough symbolic in e ac ions and sha ed alues acqui ed om close con ac and
common socializing o ces (such as he wo kplace, schools, and he mass media, e c.) is ha
di e se g oups will end o de elop a common na ional iden i y. Hence, u baniza ion and ci y li e
a e p emised o acili a e eli e in e ac ion and coope a ion as well as g oup’s ole ance and
coope a ion ac oss many endea o s.
Table 13: Rela ionship be ween U baniza ion Ra e and G oup G ie ance Index (N=132) (2006)
Sou ces: Wo ld Bank WDI and he Fund o Peace
In e es ingly, u baniza ion a e has li le impac on he obse ed scale o g oups’ g ie ances in
coun ies. In he de eloping coun ies con ex , g oup g ie ances can be ob ia ed by he e ec s o
u ban li ing only o e ime and unde an in eg a ing and g owing economy condi ion. I u ban
cen e s a e i ually seg ega ed cul u al encla es, o ha e a la ge slum a ea whe e he poo li e,
o he e is li le economic g ow h, hey can expe ience simme ing g oup g ie ances, which can
e up in o explosi e iolence om ime o ime (Dahl and Tu e 1973:92).
37
Table 14: Rela ionship be ween U baniza ion Ra e and F ac ionalized Eli es (N=132) (2006)
Sou ces: Wo ld Bank WDI and he Fund o Peace
As mos ly obse ed, eli e poli ically ac i i y is an u ban phenomenon. U baniza ion p o ides
a ious g oups eli es he igh condi ions and esou ces o mobilize hei suppo e s o poli ical
ac i ism. His o ically, u ban cen e s, as cen e s o educa ion, communica ion, and policy
making, a e places whe e eli es ge hei poli ical educa ion, hone hei o ganiza ion and
communica ion skills.
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Mul i a ia e Reg ession Analysis
Table 15: Rela ionship be ween S a e S abili y and Reg esso s (N=137) (2006)
Sou ces: Wo ld Bank WDI and WGI, he Fund o Peace, he CIA Fac book
Commen : s a e size (i.e., land a ea), u baniza ion a e, popula ion densi y, and democ acy a e
p ope ly signed and s a is ically signi ican . La ge s a e size and popula ion densi y po en ially
hampe s a e’s sa iabili y. This could be due o he he e ogenei y e ec la ge s a e can os e and
he esou ce compe i ion among g oups a highe popula ion densi y enables. U baniza ion by
concen a ing he popula ion in smalle geog aphic a eas enhances he con olling powe o he
s a e, and al e na ely he e ec i eness and esponsi eness o he go e nmen .
39
Table 16: Rela ionship be ween Go e nance and Reg esso s (N=137) (2006)
Sou ces: Wo ld Bank WDI and WGI, he Fund o Peace, he CIA Fac book
When we con ol o o he a iables, he hypo hesized e ec o la ge size on he e ec i eness o
go e nmen anishes. Howe e , popula ion densi y and u baniza ion show he expec ed e ec ,
and hei e ec is s a is ically signi ican . Democ acy and ade openness a e also a plus o
go e nmen e ec i eness. Go e nmen e ec i eness is impo an in wo espec s. Fi s , i
gene a es suppo o he s a e because he populace is sa is ied wi h he job hei go e nmen is
doing. Secondly, an e ec i e go e nmen d i es economic g ow h and e iciency, and c ea es a
posi i e image o he coun y ab oad, enabling he go e nmen o a ac FDI in o he coun y.
40
Table 17: Rela ionship be ween Democ acy (F eedom House) and Reg esso s (N=137) (2006)
Sou ces: Wo ld Bank WDI and WGI, he Fund o Peace, he CIA Fac book
The expec ed e ec s o s a e size, popula ion densi y, and u baniza ion on democ acy a e no-
shows (Table 17). Wha eme ges as impo an ac o s o in luence democ acy a e he a iables
ep esen ing eli es ac ionaliza ion and g oups g ie ances. The s a is ical signi icance o hese
wo a iables lend c edibili y o hose who say wha ma e abou he e ogenei y is no s a ic
measu es o di e si y (i.e, e hno-linguis ic ac ionaliza ion (ELF)), bu he quali y o he
ela ionships among he di e se g oups (Ge ing e al. 283). In e es ingly, also a coun y wi h
many neighbo s ha e a di icul y in es ablishing democ acy o emaining one. Mo e neighbo s
mean mo e bo de o de end and bi-la e al ela ions o so ou . He e a s a e may ind a
jus i ica ion o be au ho i a ians in he name o na ional secu i y. The a iable o numbe o
coun y neighbo s is p ope ly signed and s a is ically signi ican .
41
Table 18: Rela ionship be ween Democ acy (Poli y IV) and Reg esso s (N=137) (2006)
Sou ces: Wo ld Bank WDI and WGI, he Fund o Peace, he CIA Fac book
Using he al e na i e me hod democ acy, he Poli y measu e which ocuses on he ins i u ional
and p ocedu al aspec s o democ acy, does no imp o e esul s.
So he en a i e conclusion could be ha he ela ionship be ween democ acy and s a e size and
demog aphic se lemen pa e ns is no s aigh o wa d as assumed. Ins ead o mo e s a ic o
endogenous ac o s, wha happens o a ec democ acy seems o be mo e dynamic and ela ional
a iables such as g oups g ie ance and eli es ac ionaliza ion. I is also possible a di e en
analy ical model and s a is ical ool may be able o cap u e be e he hypo hesized ela ionship
be ween he geog aphic and demog aphic a iables, such as s a e size, popula ion densi y, and
u baniza ion a e.
