media ion, meddling, &
Mic omanagemen
manoj bhusal
india in nepal’s peace
p ocess and poli ical
ansi ion
DISSERTATIONES
UNIVERSITATIS
HELSINGIENSIS
352
2025
Facul y o Social Sciences
Uni e si y o Helsinki
Disse a iones Uni e si a is Helsingiensis 352/2025
Helsinki/2025
Media ion, Meddling, and
Mic omanagemen
India in Nepal’s Peace P ocess and
Poli ical T ansi ion
Manoj Bhusal
ACADEMIC DISSERTATION
To be p esen ed, wi h he pe mission o he Facul y o Social Sciences
o he Uni e si y o Helsinki, o public examina ion in he Ka olina
Eskelin Hall (U3032), Uni e si y main building
on 03 Oc obe 2025, a 13:15.
Helsinki 2025
P e-examine s
P o esso Ana Saggio o Ga cia, Fede al Ru al Uni e si y o Rio de Janei o
P o esso Mi iam P ys-Hansen, he Ge man Ins i u e o Global and A ea S udies (GIGA)
Cus os
Uni e si y Lec u e , Docen Tiina Seppälä, Uni e si y o Helsinki
Supe iso s
Uni e si y Lec u e Docen Tiina Seppälä, Uni e si y o Helsinki
D . Lau i Sii onen, Uni e si y o Helsinki
D . Päi i Hasu, Uni e si y o Helsinki
Opponen
P o esso F ancesco S azza i, San 'Anna Scuola Uni e si a ia Supe io e Pisa
Uni e si y o Helsinki
Disse a iones Uni e si a is Helsingiensis 352/2025
Co e Design: Manoj Bhusal (au ho )
ISBN 978-952-84-1430-8 (Pape back)
ISBN 978-952-84-1429-2 (PDF)
ISSN 2954-2898 (P in )
ISSN 2954-2952 (PDF)
Unig a ia / PunaMus a
Joensuu 2025
iii
Abs ac
This s udy examines India’s in ol emen in Nepal’s peace p ocess and poli ical
ansi ion in he pos -con lic e a. The pe iod o examina ion p ima ily ocuses on,
bu is no s ic ly con ined o, he yea s be ween 2005 and 2017. This ime ame
ma ks a pi o al chap e in Nepal's his o y, cha ac e ised by ans o ma i e e en s
such as he 2006 p o-democ acy up ising (Jana Andolan II), he esolu ion o a
decade-long Maois insu gency ha claimed o e 17,000 li es, he aboli ion o he
240-yea -old mona chy, he p omulga ion o a new cons i u ion, and Nepal's
ansi ion om a uni a y Hindu mona chy o a secula ede al democ a ic epublic.
As he nascen epublic na iga ed a se ies o poli ical a alanches in he pos -con lic
ansi ion, India was hea ily in ol ed in Nepal—o en exhibi ing a complex
cha ac e , ansmi ing bo h assis ance and asse ion.
Al hough India’s ole in Nepal’s peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion is widely
ecognised, he speci ics o i s in ol emen , such as i s acili a ion o he 12-Poin
Unde s anding, emain unclea . This s udy add esses ha gap by o e ing an in-
dep h analysis o India's ole in Nepal’s poli ical u moil du ing he mid-2000s and
i s subsequen engagemen in pos -con lic Nepal. In doing so, i also p o ides a
b oade and c i ical e-e alua ion o India–Nepal ela ions. While no he p ima y
objec i e, he s udy also iden i ies and discusses key lessons om Nepal’s peace
p ocess and poli ical ansi ion.
This s udy employs a h ee-laye ed heo e ical amewo k, in eg a ing concep s
om peace and media ion esea ch, c i ical in e na ional ela ions, and global
de elopmen s udies. The i s laye examines peace media ion as a o eign policy
ool, analysing media o s’ mo i es alongside he concep s o ‘powe media o s’ and
‘pu e media o s’. The second laye explo es ising powe beha iou , he pa adoxes
o Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion, and he ha sh eali ies o con empo a y sub-
impe ialism. Las ly, wo ld-sys ems heo y and dependency concep s p o ide a
b oade his o ical and economic pe spec i e, se ing as e ec i e e e ence poin s
o conduc ing a ho ough analysis o India–Nepal ela ions.
Me hodologically, he s udy is oo ed in c i ical ealism and employs a single
case s udy design. Da a we e collec ed om mul iple sou ces, including semi-
s uc u ed key in o man in e iews (n=18, 982 minu es), media ma e ials (n=105,
750 pages), and ideo in e iews and speeches (n=12, 360 minu es). Using an
induc i e app oach based on g ounded heo y, he da a we e analysed using he
quali a i e con en analysis me hod.
By analysing a se ies o poli ical e en s in Nepal om as ea ly as 2001, he s udy
concludes ha while India’s acili a i e ole in he 12-Poin Unde s anding was
indeed help ul, i was Nepal’s in e nal poli ical dynamics, coupled wi h a Mu ually
En icing Oppo uni y (MEO), ha ul ima ely ini ia ed he peace p ocess. Howe e ,
India was success ul in po aying i sel as a peace b oke and in le e aging ha
na a i e o s eng hen i s in luence in pos -con lic Nepal. Du ing he pos -con lic
poli ical ansi ion, Indian in luence g ew signi ican ly, as did Nepal’s dependency
on India, wi h India ac i ely in e ening and mic omanaging Nepal’s poli ical
a ai s.
India consolida ed i s in luence o e Nepal's poli ical, bu eauc a ic, and secu i y
ins i u ions h ough a combina ion o so and ha d powe s a egies. This c ea ed
a s a e o ‘peace dependency,’ whe e Nepali poli ical ac o s became hea ily elian
on India o esol e e en mundane poli ical s alema es and main ain pos -con lic
s abili y. Howe e , in he la e s ages o he poli ical ansi ion, Nepal s ongly
i
challenged and esis ed India’s ha d powe ac ics, including coe ci e diplomacy
and economic blockade, and demons a ed signi ican esis ance o ex e nal
domina ion.
This s udy si ua es India's in ol emen in Nepal's peace p ocess and poli ical
ansi ion wi hin a sub-impe ialis amewo k and as oo ed in a his o ically
complex ela ionship ma ked by bo h coope a ion and con lic . Analysing India’s
long- e m engagemen in Nepal e eals i s in en o ans o m Nepal in o a sub-
impe ialis domain. India seeks o gain con ol o e Nepal's na u al esou ces—
pa icula ly wa e —and p omo e a wo ld sys em based on neolibe al capi alism and
a ious o ms o agg ession. While India has g adually en apped Nepal in a web o
dependencies, i s own ela ionship wi h global inancial ins i u ions and Wes e n
powe s, pa icula ly he Uni ed S a es, exhibi s simila dependency ai s.
Fu he mo e, India’s p eoccupa ion wi h egional sub-impe ialism is in e wined
wi h i s inclina ion o in e nal colonialism a home and i s ixa ion wi h he Hindu-
na ionalis Hindu a ideology.
This s udy o e s esh insigh s in o ising powe beha iou by c i ically
examining India’s engagemen in pos -con lic Nepal. I challenges he assump ion
ha he economic and poli ical ascendance o a selec ew coun ies om he Global
Sou h pa es he way o a mo e equi able wo ld o de . Ins ead, i demons a es how
hese so-called ising powe s engage wi h hei less powe ul neighbou s, o en
cloaking hei ac ions in he he o ic o collec i e emancipa ion o Sou h–Sou h
Coope a ion (SSC). Howe e , in p ac ice, hey equen ly adop ex ac i is and
opp essi e policies ha pe pe ua e and ein o ce unequal powe ela ions. This
unde mines he long-che ished aspi a ions o pa icula ly smalle and less powe ul
de eloping coun ies o a ai e and mo e equi able global o de .
The s udy concludes wi h a c i ique o Nepal's peace and poli ical ansi ion
p ocess, acknowledging i s no able achie emen s while highligh ing c i ical
sho comings, such as he lack o an e ec i e ansi ional jus ice amewo k and he
ailu e o implemen impac ul socio-economic e o ms. These indings p o ide
aluable lessons o u u e peace p ocesses in compa able con ex s and con ibu e
o he b oade discou se on in e na ional media ion, pos -con lic econs uc ion,
Sou h–Sou h ela ions, and he p essing issues o egional powe i al ies and a
shi ing wo ld o de .
Keywo ds: Nepal peace p ocess, India–Nepal ela ions, Sou h Asian geopoli ics,
sub-impe ialism, Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion, ising powe beha iou , c i ical
ealism, case s udy
Tii is elmä
Tämä u kimus a kas elee In ian osallis umis a Nepalin auhanp osessiin ja
polii iseen sii ymään kon lik in jälkeen, keski yen ensisijaises i uosiin 2005–
2017. Tä ä kään een eke ää ajanjaksoa Nepalin his o iassa leimasi a suu ia
muu oksia aikaansaanee apah uma , ku en uoden 2006 demok aa inen
kansannousu (Jana Andolan II), yli 17 000 henkeä aa ineen kymmen uo isen
maolaississiliikkeen pää yminen, 240- uo isen mona kian lakkau aminen ja
uuden pe us uslain sää äminen, jonka myö ä Nepal muu ui yh enäises ä
hindumona kias a sekulaa iksi demok aa iseksi lii o asa allaksi. Nuo en
asa allan kamppaillessa polii is en mullis us en kanssa In ia oimi Nepalissa
ak ii ises i ja moni ahoises i, yhdis äen a unannon ja mää ä ie oisen allankäy ön.
Vaikka In ian ooli Nepalin auhanp osessissa ja polii isessa sii ymässä on
laajal i unnus e u, sen osallis umisen yksi yiskohda , esime kiksi 12-koh aisen
yh eisymmä yksen (12-Poin Unde s anding) aikaansaamisessa, o a edelleen
epäsel iä. Tämä u kimus uo aa aihees a uu a ie oa ja a joaa sy ällisen
analyysin In ian oolis a Nepalin polii isessa mylle yksessä 2000-lu un
puoli älissä sekä kon lik in pää ymisen jälkeen. Samalla se a ioi uudelleen In ian
ja Nepalin suhde a laajemmas a, k ii ises ä näkökulmas a. Lisäksi yö a kas elee
ja nos aa esiin Nepalin auhanp osessin ja polii isen sii ymän keskeisiä ope uksia.
Tu kimuksessa käy e ään kolmi asois a eo ee is a ii ekehys ä, joka yhdis ää
auhan- ja kon lik in u kimuksen, k ii isen kansain älisen poli iikan ja globaalin
kehi ys u kimuksen käsi ei ä. Ensimmäinen aso a kas elee auhan äli ys ä
ulkopoli iikan älineenä, analysoiden auhan äli äjien mo ii eja sekä
auhan äli ykseen lii y ää käsi eis öä (‘powe media o s’ ja ‘pu e media o s’).
Toinen aso pu eu uu nouse ien al ojen käy äy ymiseen, globaalin e elän maiden
yh eis yön haas eisiin ja nykyisen subimpe ialismin eali ee eihin. Lopuksi
maailmanjä jes elmä eo ian ja iippu uus eo ian käsi ee a joa a laajemman
his o iallis- aloudellisen pe spek ii in ja ii ekehyksen In ian ja Nepalin suh een
sy ällisemmälle analyysille.
Mene elmällises i u kimus pohjau uu k ii iseen ealismiin ja nouda aa
yksi äisen apaus u kimuksen mallia. Aineis o koos uu a ainhenkilöiden
puolis uk u oiduis a haas a eluis a (n=18, 982 minuu ia), media-aineis os a
(n=105, 750 si ua) sekä ideohaas a eluis a ja puheis a (n=12, 360 minuu ia).
Aineis o on analysoi u induk ii is a, g ounded heo y-lähes ymis apaan
pe us u aa laadullis a sisällönanalyysia hyödyn äen.
Analysoidessaan Nepalin polii isia apah umia uodes a 2001 läh ien u kimus
pää yy joh opää ökseen, e ä In ian oimin a edesau oi 12-koh aisen
yh eisymmä yksen aikaansaamisessa, mu a a sinaisen auhanp osessin
käynnis i Nepalin sisäinen polii inen dynamiikka, joka a josi kon lik in
osapuolille uusia mahdollisuuksia ja kannus imia. In ia onnis ui kui enkin
esiin ymään auhan äli äjänä ja hyödyn ämään ä ä na a ii ia ah is aakseen
aiku us al aansa kon lik in jälkeisessä Nepalissa. Polii isen sii ymä aiheen
aikana In ia puu ui ak ii ises i Nepalin polii isiin asioihin, mikä lisäsi In ian
aiku us al aa maassa ja sy ensi sen iippu uu a In ias a.
In ia luji i aiku us al aansa Nepalin polii isissa, hallinnollisissa ja
u allisuusins i uu ioissa yhdis ämällä pehmeän ja ko an allan s a egioi a.
Tämä loi ‘ auhan iippu uuden’ ilan, jossa Nepalin polii ise oimija ukeu ui a
ah as i In iaan a kais akseen jopa a kipäi äisiä polii isia ongelmia ja
ylläpi ääkseen maan akau a kon lik in jälkeen. Polii isen sii ymän
i
myöhemmissä aiheissa Nepal kui enkin haas oi In ian allankäy öä
as us amalla esime kiksi pako a aa diploma iaa ja aloussaa oa ja osoi i näin
me ki ä ää as a in aa siihen kohdis unei a ulkoisia al apy kimyksiä koh aan.
Tu kimus sijoi aa In ian osallis umisen Nepalin auhanp osessiin ja
polii isessa sii ymään subimpe ialis iseen ii ekehykseen ja osaksi his o iallises i
monimu kais a suhde a, jolle o a ominaisia sekä yh eis yö e ä kon lik i . Analyysi
paljas aa In ian a oi een muu aa Nepal subimpe ialis iseksi aiku usalueekseen.
In ia py kimykse halli a Nepalin luonnon a oja—e i yises i sen esi a oja—
uke a samalla uuslibe aaliin kapi alismiin ja e ilaisiin oimankäy ön muo oihin
pe us u aa maailmanjä jes elmää. Vaikka In ia on ähi ellen kie onu Nepalin
iippu uussuh eiden e kkoon, sen oma suhde globaaleihin ahoi usins i uu ioihin
ja länsi al oihin, e i yises i Yhdys al oihin, ilmen ää samankal aisia iippu uuden
pii ei ä. In ian subimpe ialis ise py kimykse ky key y ä myös sisäiseen
kolonialismiin ja hinduna ionalis iseen Hindu a-ideologiaan.
Tu kimus a joaa uusia näkökulmia nouse ien al ojen käy äy ymisen
a kas eluun analysoimalla k ii ises i In ian oimin aa kon lik in jälkeisessä
Nepalissa. Se kyseenalais aa ole uksen, e ä muu amien globaalin e elän maiden
aloudellisen ja polii isen aiku us allan kas u loisi pohjan
oikeudenmukaisemmalle maailmanjä jes ykselle. Sen sijaan se osoi aa, kuinka
nouse a alla oimi a ähemmän aiku us al ais en naapu eidensa kanssa.
Vaikka ne ko os a a e o iikassaan kollek ii is a emansipaa io a ja globaalin
e elän maiden yh eis yö ä, käy ännössä ne usein ukeu u a sellaisiin allankäy ön
muo oihin, jo ka ylläpi ä ä ja ah is a a epä asaisia al asuh ei a. Tämä
heiken ää e i yises i pienempien ja ähemmän aiku us al ais en globaalin e elän
maiden pi kään aalimia oi ei a oikeudenmukaisemmas a ja asapuolisemmas a
maailmanjä jes ykses ä.
Tu kielman loppupuolella a ioidaan myös Nepalin auhanp osessia ja
polii is a sii ymää k ii ises ä näkökulmas a, unnus aen sen me ki ä ä
saa u ukse mu a nos aen esiin myös keskeise heikkoude , ku en oimi an
sii ymäkauden oikeudellisen ii ekehyksen puu umisen ja sosioekonomis en
uudis us en oimeenpanon epäonnis umisen. Nämä ha ainno a joa a a okas a
ie oa, jo a oidaan hyödyn ää auhanp osesseissa samankal aisissa kon eks eissa.
Lisäksi ne edis ä ä keskus elua kansain älises ä auhan äli ykses ä, kon lik in
jälkeises ä jälleen akennukses a, globaalin e elän maiden suh eis a, alueellisis a
al akamppailuis a sekä muu u as a maailmanjä jes ykses ä.
A ainsana : Nepalin auhanp osessi, In ian ja Nepalin suhde, E elä-Aasian
geopoli iikka, subimpe ialismi, E elä–E elä-yh eis yö, nouse ien al ojen
käy äy yminen, k ii inen ealismi, apaus u kimus
ii
Acknowledgemen s
This hesis is he end o a long, winding oad, one ha began in he dus y hills o
u al Nepal, whe e I i s wi nessed my coun y s umble and bleed i s way h ough
his o y. As I g ew om a boy in o a young man, Nepal oo was ying o g ow, only
i did so in he middle o an a med con lic , e olu ions, and poli ical s o ms ha
would humble e en he ha dies a elle . Somewhe e along he way, I decided o
make sense o ha chaos, and his hesis is my modes a emp .
The jou ney he e has been no smoo h ca iage ide. I has been a olle coas e —
wild, a ling, and mo e han once, I hough he wheels migh come o . Bu i has
also been ewa ding, e en exhila a ing, in he way ha su i ing a s o m lea es you
bo h exhaus ed and s angely g a e ul. Thus, I am deeply indeb ed o all who walked
beside me on his jou ney, o e ing hei suppo and s eadying me in momen s
when he oad g ew ough.
The e a e hanks I mus o e o hose whose suppo , gene osi y, and p esence
made hese e y wo ds possible. Fi s , o P o esso F ancesco S azza i o he
San ’Anna School o Ad anced S udies in Pisa, I aly, who kindly ag eed o se e as
my opponen . To ead h ough his he y manusc ip and hen conside en u ing
o Helsinki in cold Oc obe is no small a ou , and o ha , I hank you. Equal
g a i ude goes o my p e-examine s, P o esso Ana Saggio o Ga cia om he
Fede al Ru al Uni e si y o Rio de Janei o, B azil, and P o esso Mi iam P ys-
Hansen om he Ge man Ins i u e o Global and A ea S udies (GIGA), Ge many.
You pa ien eading and sha p-eyed eedback polished his hesis in o some hing
p esen able.
My h ee supe iso s dese e mo e hanks han wo ds can gi e. Lau i Sii onen,
wi h his s eady hand, eminded me ha schola ship is no a sp in bu a slow,
delibe a e climb. He had al eady guided me in my Mas e ’s, and he ende ness o
his counsel and he hough ulness o ou discussions a e easu es I will ca y wi h
me long a e his hesis is bound and shel ed. Päi i Hasu, wi h eloquence and
gene osi y, sha pened my me hods and nudged me o hink sideways when I was
ma ching oo s aigh . And hen came Tiina Seppälä, a i ing a a ime when I was
wobbling on he igh ope. She b ough bo h com o and momen um, ead my
d a s wi h u mos ca e, highligh ed he s eng hs wi h gene osi y and he
weaknesses wi h p ecision. Managing, somehow, o be bo h a iend and a ea less
c i ic, Tiina, you ga e me he a es gi o all: con idence. I e e y doc o al s uden
we e lucky enough o ha e a supe iso like you, he e would be so many success ul
PhDs—many o hem walking a li le alle , su e o hei wo k, and b a e in hei
wo ld iews. So, hank you o all ha guidance and ca e, and also o ag eeing o
s and beside me as he cus os in he public examina ion o his hesis, which will
o mally b ing his jou ney o i s close.
The Uni e si y o Helsinki o e ed me no only a place o pu sue a doc o al
deg ee bu also men o s and companions who made his in ellec ual jou ney wo h
he miles. I am especially g a e ul o P o esso Ba y Gills, whose incisi e commen s
in PhD semina s and beyond helped me e ine he co e o his esea ch. He ins illed
in me a sense ha being a li le adical, bo h in hough and ac ion, was no jus
accep able bu also desi able. I am also o una e o ha e aken my MA hesis
semina s wi h P o esso Tei o Tei ainen. La e , his guidance on issues di ec ly
ele an o his disse a ion was in aluable, and despi e his ex emely busy
schedule, he was always accessible. P o esso Anja Nyg en, P o esso Ma kus
K öge , and D . Eija Ran a likewise o e ed in aluable p ac ical ad ice—o en
xi
SPA
SSC
TRC
UK
UNMIN
UPF
US
USD
ZoP
Se en Pa y Alliance
Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion
T u h and Reconcilia ion Commission
Uni ed Kingdom
Uni ed Na ions Mission in Nepal
Uni ed People's F on
Uni ed S a es
Uni ed S a es Dolla
Zone o Peace
x
Lis o Tables
Table 1: Dis ibu ion o Key In o man s
Table 2: Media Ma e ial Sou ces and Thei Dis ibu ion
Lis o Figu es
Figu e 1: Da a Sou ces Used in he S udy
Figu e 2: Pe cen age o Media ed Con lic Dyad Yea s (1989–2013)
Figu e 3: Con lic In e en ion by Decade
Figu e 4: Diploma ic In en ions in Con lic s and F equen In e ene s
Figu e 5: Depic ion o Co e–Pe iphe y Rela ions
Lis o Pic u es
Pic u e 1: Pho o o he Maois -UML Rolpa Mee ing, Whe e he Six-Poin
Ag eemen Was Signed in Oc obe 2005
Pic u e 2: S ee P o es s Du ing Jana Andolan II in Ka hmandu, Ap il 2006
Pic u e 3: Nepali P o es e s Demons a ing Agains he Indian Economic
Blockade in F on o he Indian Embassy, Ka hmandu, Oc obe 2015
1
1. In oduc ion
‘In e na ional poli ics, like all poli ics, is a s uggle o powe .’
― Hans J. Mo gen hau, Poli ics Among Na ions (1978: 29)
‘The e is some sel -in e es behind e e y iendship. The e is no iendship
wi hou sel -in e es . This is a bi e T u h.’ ― Chanakya, 371 BC.1
This s udy examines India’s engagemen in Nepal’s peace p ocess and pos -con lic
poli ical ansi ion (2005–2017). While his se es as he p ima y ocus, he s udy
also explo es b oade hemes, including he na u e o con empo a y India–Nepal
ela ions, India’s eme gence as a ising powe , i s in e nal con adic ions, and he
way i engages wi h i s less powe ul neighbou s. Mo eo e , he s udy in es iga es
how con lic and poli ical media ion can be used as o eign policy ools o achie e
ce ain o eign policy goals. Finally, i enlis s and e lec s on lessons om Nepal’s
os ensibly comple ed ye undamen ally lawed peace p ocess. A i s co e, his s udy
is abou a con lic , i s esolu ion, and i s disenchan ed s akeholde s. I is a na a i e
o con empo a y Sou h Asian geopoli ics—a s o y o ising and declining powe s, o
dependencies and de iance, and o he endu ing in e play be ween esilience and
esis ance.
The s udy ocuses on one o he mos de ining and c ucial pe iods o mode n
Nepal, he pe iod be ween 2005 and 2017. Du ing his pe iod, Nepal expe ienced
bo h pain ul and eju ena ing poli ical e en s, wi nessing i s own e sion o a
poli ical Renaissance. A e a decade-long a med insu gency ha claimed o e
17,000 li es, he Maois ebels laid down hei a ms in 2006 and en e ed
mains eam poli ics. Following a b ie bu disas ous au ho i a ian in e lude,
Nepal’s 240-yea -old mona chy was abolished in 2008, and Nepal was decla ed a
ede al democ a ic epublic. The nascen epublic hen expe ienced a se ies o
addi ional poli ical a alanches—a p o ac ed poli ical ansi ion, social and
economic chaos c ea ed by wo massi e ea hquakes, and a humani a ian
ca as ophe caused by India’s economic blockade.
As Nepal na iga ed one o he mos challenging episodes in i s mode n his o y,
he p esence o neighbou ing India—ma ked by bo h assis ance and asse ion—was
p o ound. While India’s ole was conside ed c i ical and empha ic, he speci ics o
i s engagemen in pos -2005 Nepal emain unclea . Fo ins ance, India’s ole in
acili a ing he pi o al 12-Poin Unde s anding be ween he Maois s and a g oup o
se en Nepali poli ical pa ies, known as he Se en Pa y Alliance (SPA), emains
la gely unclea . O he episodes o Indian engagemen , o ins ance, i s ole in he
2006 people’s mo emen (Jana Andolan II)2, he subsequen peace deal, he
cons i u ion-making p ocess (2008–2015), and mo e han a decade-long pos -
con lic poli ical ansi ion also emain la gely unexplo ed.
This hesis e ol es a ound hese e y issues. Simply s a ed, his is a
( e)examina ion o India’s ole in he Nepali peace p ocess and he pos -2005
poli ical ansi ion and an a emp o o e a esh pe spec i e on he Nepali peace
p ocess. While doing so, his s udy con ibu es o he b oade schola ship on India–
1 Ci ed in Sha ma (2023)
2 Jana Andolan I was a p o-democ acy mo emen in Nepal du ing he 1990s.
2
Nepal ela ions. I p omp s a c i ical e-e alua ion o a long and complica ed
ela ionship ma ked by bo h coope a ion and con lic , and a ple ho a o poli ical,
economic, and cul u al in e ac ions. Equally, i p o ides a new pe spec i e on
India’s e olu ion as a ising powe and sheds ligh on how i engages wi h i s less
powe ul Sou h Asian neighbou s.
Theo e ically, his s udy adop s an in e disciplina y app oach, in eg a ing
concep s and pe spec i es om a ious heo e ical s ands. Theo e ical concep s
d awn om h ee domains—peace and media ion esea ch, global de elopmen
s udies, and c i ical heo ies o in e na ional ela ions—cons i u e he heo e ical
amewo k o his s udy (Chap e 3). As con lic media ion and poli ical ansi ion
p ocesses a e also o en deeply linked o geopoli ics and b oade poli ical and
economic p ocesses, he combina ion o di e en heo e ical s ands was no only
help ul, bu also necessa y.
Me hodologically, his is a singula case s udy based on a c i ical ealis
app oach (Chap e 2). Da a we e accumula ed om ou sou ces: 1. Semi-
s uc u ed key in o man in e iews (n=18), 2. Video ma e ials, mos ly consis ing
o alks and speeches o key in o man s una ailable o in e iew, 3. Opinion pieces
and media in e iews, mainly o key in o man s una ailable o in e iew, and 4.
A icles collec ed om Nepali media a chi es. This way, in addi ion o 18 key-
in o man in e iews o alling 16.36 hou s (982 minu es), his s udy d aws on 12
ideos (360 minu es) and 105 ex ual sou ces—including opinion pieces,
in e iews, news a icles, and in-dep h epo s—amoun ing o 750 pages o da a.
Fo da a analysis, he s udy adop ed an induc i e app oach based on g ounded
heo y and used he quali a i e con en analysis me hod (Chap e 2).
Mos key in o man s in e iewed o his s udy we e p ominen poli ical igu es
di ec ly in ol ed in Nepal’s peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion. These
indi iduals, o ins ance, pa icipa ed in o icial and behind- he-scenes nego ia ions
and con ibu ed o d a ing he 12-Poin Unde s anding, he 2006 Comp ehensi e
Peace Acco d (CPA), he 2015 Cons i u ion, and o he signi ican poli ical
ag eemen s. Thei in ol emen spanned bo h domes ic and in e na ional
dimensions o he pos -peace ag eemen e a. The pe spec i es, insigh s, and
expe iences hey sha ed hold subs an ial p ac ical signi icance. Thus, he indings
o his hesis will be pa icula ly aluable o poli ical nego ia o s, media o s,
media ion o ganisa ions, policymake s, and mos impo an ly, peace and
in e na ional ela ions esea che s. This s udy p ima ily con ibu es o peace and
media ion esea ch. Howe e , i s indings also en ich o he heo e ical domains,
including a ious c i ical s ands o in e na ional ela ions and global de elopmen
s udies.
By explo ing he genesis o he Nepali peace p ocess (Chap e 5) and examining
India’s ex ensi e engagemen in Nepal ollowing he 2005 12-Poin Unde s anding
and he 2006 CPA, his s udy e eals how peace p ocesses and poli ical ansi ions
can be moulded and in luenced by ex e nal in e es s and geopoli ical mo i es.
O e all, his s udy enhances ou unde s anding o he complexi ies o
con empo a y peace and pos -con lic poli ical ansi ions, which a e inc easingly
shaped by geopoli ical, secu i y, economic, and esou ce in e es s, as well as he
p esence o mul iple global and egional ac o s, ising powe s such as he BRICS
3
(B azil, Russia, India, China, and Sou h A ica)3, and expanding geopoli ical
in e es s, among o he s.
This s udy also sheds ligh on a ‘ ising India,’ i s domes ic dilemmas, and i s
o eign policy con adic ions. By explo ing India’s engagemen in Nepal as a case o
con empo a y sub-impe ialism, his s udy o e s a esh c i ical pe spec i e on
India–Nepal ela ions (Chap e 7). A he co e o his in es iga ion is an a emp o
demys i y how egional and global powe dynamics can ans o m os ensibly
benign ins umen s, such as con lic media ion, in o handy ools o pe pe ua ing
dependency, ad ancing sub-impe ialis pu sui s, ul illing esou ce in e es s, and
achie ing speci ic o eign policy goals. In o he wo ds, he la e chap e s o his
hesis po ay a pic u e o an unequal ela ionship be ween wo dis inc ly di e en
coun ies co-exis ing in a umul uous ela ionship wi hin he con empo a y Global
Sou h—a egional gian wi h signi ican mili a y and economic ambi ions, and a
smalle , less powe ul neighbou ing coun y, which cons an ly s uggles o i s
so e eign y and su i al.
Mo eo e , his s udy en iches he media ion li e a u e by in es iga ing India’s
in ol emen in Nepal’s peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion in de ail and
p oposing a new heo e ical concep o ‘peace dependency’ (Chap e 9). Peace
dependency illus a es how peace media o s/ acili a o s' p olonged engagemen in
pos -con lic scena ios can some imes unde mine poli ical s abili y in ecipien
coun ies and comp omise hei poli ical agency and na ional so e eign y. Finally,
al hough i is no he ocus o his s udy, I ha e also made an a emp o compile
and e lec on he lessons lea n om he Nepali peace p ocess (Chap e 10). The
pu pose o his chap e is o o e p ac ical insigh s and p ac i ione s’ pe spec i es
o enhance he p ac ices o peacemaking and peacebuilding. A e all, he
undamen al goal o peace esea ch is o help build las ing peace.
1.1 India in Nepal’s Peace P ocess and Poli ical T ansi ion
In he au umn o 2015, Nepal aced one o he mos challenging pe iods in i s
mode n his o y: he a e ma h o wo de as a ing ea hquakes and a humani a ian
c isis caused by India’s economic blockade. In he sp ing o ha yea , wo deadly
ea hquakes ocked he coun y, which ook nea ly 9000 li es, a aged housands
o homes, des oyed nume ous his o ical si es, and caused landslides and
a alanches in he Himalayas. The ea hquakes le Nepal’s ela i ely small and weak
economy in shambles. The cos o damage was es ima ed o be abou USD 7 billion,
abou 30% o Nepal’s nominal G oss Domes ic P oduc (GDP) a he ime
(Go e nmen o Nepal, Na ional Planning Commission 2015).
As Nepal was s ill eeling om he shocks and a e shocks o he ea hquakes,
he coun y was o ced o g apple wi h a massi e man-made disas e . This ime, he
blow came om an economic blockade imposed by neighbou ing India.4 India’s
uno icial economic blockade—appa en ly imposed as a punishmen o
p omulga ing a new cons i u ion wi hou add essing India's conce ns and
3 In 2024, I an, Egyp , E hiopia, and he Uni ed A ab Emi a es became ull membe s o he BRICS bloc,
ollowed by Indonesia in ea ly 2025. Since 2024, he e ms BRICS+ and BRICS Plus ha e been in o mally used
o deno e he bloc’s expanded membe ship. In addi ion, 34 mo e coun ies ha e applied o BRICS membe ship
(see Seli 2024).
4 India o icially ejec ed allega ions o an economic blockade and poin ed inge s a a g oup o Nepali
p o es o s o Madhesi o igin who we e unsa is ied wi h Nepal’s new cons i u ion. Howe e , India’s o icial claim
was con es ed by Indian media, Indian ci il socie y, and he go e nmen o Nepal. See Chap e 6 o mo e on
his issue.
4
in e es s— ook a hea y oll on Nepal. The economy u he de e io a ed, and he
pos -ea hquake ehabili a ion and econs uc ion wo k was se e ely a ec ed as he
blockade ‘choked impo s o no only pe oleum, bu also medicines and ea hquake
elie ma e ial’ (A o a 2015b). Aid agencies began decla ing Nepal a humani a ian
c isis. The Uni ed Na ions Child en's Fund, o ins ance, wa ned ha mo e han
h ee million child en unde he age o i e we e a isk o dea h o disease due o a
‘se e e sho age o uel, ood, medicines and accines’ (UNICEF 2015).
As he blockade con inued, he an i-Indian sen imen in Nepal also peaked.
Demons a ions and p o es s ou side he Indian embassy in Ka hmandu became
equen . So did chan s and placa ds depic ing ph ases such as ‘Back O India’. In
unison wi h he u ious people in he s ee s, e en senio poli ical leade s in Nepal
s a ed becoming ocal agains India’s ‘in e e ences’ in Nepal (Pa isson 2015,
Ghimi e 2015). This was a he an unusual de elopmen , o India had been
c edi ed wi h playing a c ucial and posi i e ole in ending he Maois a med
insu gency and acili a ing Nepal's pos -con lic poli ical ansi ion (see, o
ins ance, Muni 2012, Jha 2012).
India's in ol emen in Nepal's peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion, which
p ac ically began wi h he signing o he 12-Poin Unde s anding in New Delhi in
No embe 2005, las ed ill 2017. Howe e , he na u e o his in ol emen has been
a subjec o specula ion and deba e in bo h coun ies. While sensa ionalised media
po ayals and conspi acy heo ies ha e p oli e a ed, he e is s ill a sca ci y o
objec i e academic esea ch on his subjec . Despi e nume ous books and a icles
add essing a ious aspec s o his issue (see Chap e 4), India's p ecise ole and
in luence du ing hese c i ical yea s emain la gely sh ouded in mys e y. The
exis ing li e a u e o en p esen s con lic ing accoun s, highligh ing he need o
mo e igo ous academic analysis o demys i y his c ucial chap e in India–Nepal
ela ions.
The schola ship on ex e nal engagemen in Nepal’s peace p ocess and he
poli ical ansi ion has indeed cen ed a ound India. Howe e , while India's ole in
Nepal’s peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion is undeniable, he p ecise na u e and
ex en o i s decade-long, p edominan ly co e and asse i e engagemen emain
poo ly unde s ood, and, hus, wa an u he in es iga ion. This in es iga ion is
bo h necessa y and ele an , as much o India's in luence du ing his pe iod was
bo h ‘unclea and ques ionable’ (Subedi & Bha a ai 2017: 95).
Wha is well-known, howe e , is India’s inconsis en and con adic o y ole
du ing he Maois a med insu gency, in which i suppo ed and supplied bo h sides
o he wa , pe ec ing he a o di ide and ule (Shah 2004: 223). Fo ins ance, e en
hough India decla ed he Nepali Maois s a e o is o ganisa ion, i showed li le
in e es in cu bing hei ac i i ies (Bha a ai 2005: 34, Up e i 2009: 223). The
Maois s ecei ed aining in India om a ious gue illa g oups (Bha a ai 2005:
32), and senio Maois leade s li ed and ope a ed om India h oughou he a med
con lic (Mish a 2004: 638).
India's con en ious ole du ing he decade-long insu gency is well-documen ed
and ex ensi ely analysed (see, o ins ance, Shah 2004, Mish a 2004, Bha a ai
2005, Whelp on 2005, Whi ield 2008, Up e i 2009, Des adi 2010, Sha ma 2013,
Adhika i 2017, and Dhungel 2019). Howe e , con usion pe sis s ega ding i s
p ecise ole in he backg ound nego ia ions leading o he 12-Poin Unde s anding,
and subsequen nego ia ions ha ook place du ing he peace p ocess and poli ical
ansi ion yea s. In o he wo ds, while i s ole in he con lic has been ex ensi ely
analysed, i s con ibu ion o he esolu ion and i s ac ions in he a e ma h emain
unclea . One o he ocuses o his s udy is his speci ic a ea.
5
The e is a consensus among schola s, ci il socie y membe s, and poli icians in
bo h Nepal and India ha India played a ole in uni ing he Maois ebels wi h he
Se en-Pa y Alliance (SPA) o oppose he au oc a ic mona chy in Nepal. Schola ly
wo ks, especially hose p oduced du ing he poli ical ansi ion yea s, p o ide
nume ous examples o India's in ol emen in shaping Nepal’s poli ical landscape
(see Up e i 2009, Sha ma 2013, Adhika i 2014). Howe e , accoun s o en a y and
con adic ega ding he na u e and ex en o India's ole. Comp ehensi e academic
s udies ha ho oughly add ess and explain India's in ol emen in Nepal du ing
he ea ly s ages o he peace p ocess and i s a e ma h a e almos nonexis en . This
s udy seeks o add ess his gap in he exis ing li e a u e.
Though wi h limi a ions, some schola s ha e a emp ed o b oadly analyse
India's engagemen in Nepal's peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion. Ini ially,
schola ly in e es p ima ily ocused on analysing he o igins o he con lic and
p edic ing i s po en ial ou comes (see Ka ki & Seddon 2003, Thapa & Sijapa i 2004,
Hu 2004). Howe e , wi h he onse o he peace p ocess, academic a en ion
shi ed o wide issues o peacebuilding, such as cons i u ion-making, s a e
es uc u ing, inclusi i y, de elopmen , and he discou se o a 'new Nepal'.
The ole o in e na ional ac o s in he Nepali con lic has been s udied bo h
du ing he con lic and in he a e ma h. Among o he s, India’s ole in Nepal’s peace
p ocess and poli ical ansi ion has been desc ibed as agg essi e (Adhika i 2017:
32), acili a i e (Des adi 2010:17, Sh es ha 2012: 211, Ghimi e 2018a: 6), and one
ha p o ided aci suppo (Whi ield 2008: 6). Some ha e also po ayed India as
a coe ci e media o (Poudel 2018: 7), p eoccupied wi h i s secu i y-o ien ed
conce ns (Ande son 2014: 11) and sel -in e es s (Bha a ai 2018). O he s see India's
ole in Nepal as being d i en by a commi men o p omo ing democ acy in he
egion (Janjua 2007, H.B. Jha 2014), o simply as a means o becoming Sou h
Asia’s ‘bene olen hegemon’ (Des adi 2012: 289).
Howe e , as I discuss in Chap e 4, he p e ious li e a u e on India's
in ol emen in Nepal's peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion has i e no able
limi a ions. Fi s , much o he esea ch conduc ed du ing and a e he con lic
ocuses on na ow ime ames o isola ed aspec s o he issue. This lack o a holis ic
app oach has led o an incomple e and agmen ed unde s anding o he subjec .
Second, some lack he necessa y c i ical pe spec i e and simply po ay India's
ac ions as male olen , benign, o e en p o-democ a ic wi hou p o iding de ailed
analysis o su icien c i ical sc u iny. Thi d, he endency o oman icise India's
ole—o en p esen ing i as a suppo i e neighbou and sugges ing i s in ol emen
was pu ely o peace, democ acy, and s abili y—is also common. Fou h, some
schola s ha e adop ed an o e ly Indo-cen ic iew, a ibu ing all poli ical e en s
in Nepal o Indian in luence. This end o e looks he s o ies o Nepali esis ance
and he agency ha Nepali ac o s consis en ly exe cise. Las ly, many schola s ha e
con ined hemsel es o na ow heo e ical ields, such as in e na ional ela ions,
o e looking aluable insigh s om o he heo e ical s ands, such as peace and
con lic s udies, media ion s udies, global de elopmen s udies5, and Sou h–Sou h
ela ions. Theo e ical na owness is no inhe en ly p oblema ic, bu i does no
necessa ily cap u e o con ey he ull complexi y o an issue as as as India–Nepal
ela ions. This esea ch add esses hese limi a ions by adop ing a mo e
comp ehensi e, c i ical, and in e disciplina y app oach.
5 Some o he issues ha I discuss in la e chap e s, such as na u al esou ce exp op ia ion,
mic omanagemen , sub-impe ialism, and peace dependency, can also be conside ed o be pa o global
de elopmen s udies.
6
1.2 Media o s’ Migh : Con lic Media ion as a Fo eign Policy Tool
This s udy examines Nepal’s peace p ocess and pos -con lic poli ical ansi ion
p ima ily om a peace and media ion esea ch pe spec i e. S udying media ion as
a o eign policy ool p o ides aluable insigh s in o how s a es ackle and make use
o complex in e na ional con lic s and le e age hem o ad ance hei s a egic
in e es s. While adi ional iews o media ion o en emphasise neu al hi d
pa ies, examining i h ough a o eign policy lens e eals how s a es use media ion
as a s a egic ool o exe in luence and ad ance speci ic o eign policy objec i es
(see Tou al 1992, 2003; Be co i ch 2011, Bu le 2018). This pe spec i e is c i ical,
gi en he une en pa e n o con lic media ion globally, because some con lic s
ecei e excessi e media ion a en ion while o he s a e neglec ed and allowed o
escala e (G eig & Diehl 2012; S ensson & Onken 2015: 69–70). This indica es how
media ion e o s can be d i en by o eign policy calcula ions a he han pu ely by
an au hen ic conce n o peace.
As I discuss in Chap e 3, ‘powe media o s' o en use media ion as a o eign
policy ins umen (Ha is & Reilly 1998, S ensson 2007: 230). Regional powe s,
such as India in his con ex , can employ ‘powe media ion’ s a egies and exe cise
a ious ac ics, such as incen i es and punishmen s, and p essu e con lic ing
pa ies o accep a comp omise (Ha is & Reilly 1998). Powe media o s le e age
hei powe and esou ces o in luence ou comes. They can use con lic
managemen , media ion, and diplomacy as so powe s a egies (Ku lan zick 2007,
Nye 2009). O he so -powe s a egies, such as he o ic, pe suasion, and agenda
se ing, can also be used (Ro hman 2011: 50). When so -powe s a egies ail o
yield he desi ed ou comes, s a es o en eso o mo e o ce ul app oaches, such as
coe ci e diplomacy (Keohane & Nye 1989, Jakobsen 2016).
Media ion, when used as an ex ension o a s a e's b oade o eign policy
objec i es, di e ges om i s idealised p inciples. Analysing media ion and con lic
esolu ion in his o eign policy con ex , as his s udy has done, is essen ial o
unde s anding con empo a y media ion and peacemaking e o s and making
sense o he complex in e play be ween con lic esolu ion and geopoli ical
manoeu ing.
While he media ion li e a u e o ms he co e o his s udy, he heo e ical
explo a ion goes beyond i . Gi en he complex esea ch con ex and he
mul i ace ed na u e o he ques ions, I adop a h ee-pilla heo e ical amewo k
(Chap e 3). As p e iously men ioned, his amewo k in eg a es insigh s om
media ion li e a u e and a ious o he heo e ical s ands, including c i ical
in e na ional ela ions and global de elopmen s udies. The di e si y o heo e ical
pe spec i es is essen ial, as no single heo y ully cap u es he complexi y o he
esea ch ques ions. This s udy hus se es as an example o heo e ical
expe imen a ion, oo. Ins ead o es ic ing he analysis o a na ow ield o
in e na ional ela ions o media ion s udies, i en u es in o di e en heo e ical
domains, explo ing linkages and possibili ies. Fo ins ance, Sou h–Sou h
Coope a ion as a heo e ical lens has a ely been used o examine peace p ocesses
in he con empo a y Global Sou h, a ask unde aken in his s udy.
1.3 E alua ing an Unp edic able Rise o Rising Powe s
The global powe balance is unde going a signi ican shi , p ima ily d i en by he
eme gence o new economic powe s om he Global Sou h (see, o ins ance,
Schwa ze 2017, Deniso e al. 2019, G ix e al. 2019). Ini ially, he ise o non-
7
Wes e n powe s, such as he BRICS bloc—o iginally comp ising B azil, Russia,
India, China, and Sou h A ica— inspi ed hope and was e en e e ed o as he
beginning o ‘ he ise o he es ’ (Zaka ia 2013). O e ime, howe e , he so-called
ise o he eme ging powe s has become inc easingly unp edic able, aising a sense
o suspicion and unce ain y.
His o ically, he o ma ion o he G oup o 77 (G77) in 1964 had i s oo s in he
aspi a ions o de eloping coun ies o challenge he p e ailing Wes e n-domina ed
global economic o de 6 and o es ablish a mo e equi able in e na ional sys em
(Gelda & Lyon 1980). A i s incep ion, G77 coun ies collec i ely en isioned a New
In e na ional Economic O de . This was in ended o add ess his o ical inequali ies
be ween he Wes and ‘ he es ’, e o m global ade and inancial sys ems, and
p omo e economic de elopmen in he Global Sou h. The G77 was also expec ed o
e o m in e na ional ins i u ions and challenge Wes e n hegemony h ough a ious
means, including ad oca ing o ai ade p ac ices, echnology ans e , deb
elie , and inc eased de elopmen assis ance. Guided by p inciples o solida i y,
collec i e sel - eliance, and e ec i e Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion, he G77 was
supposed o eshape global economic go e nance and ul ima ely c ea e a mul ipola
wo ld o de .
Al hough he G77 did no achie e he le el o p og ess ha was an icipa ed
du ing i s ea ly yea s, he 21s cen u y has none heless wi nessed a p o ound shi
in he global landscape. This shi has pa icula ly in ol ed he economic and
poli ical ise o a hand ul o non-Wes e n coun ies, such as China, India, B azil,
and Sou h A ica. Once i mly posi ioned wi hin he de eloping wo ld, hese
coun ies ha e now eme ged as signi ican global economic and poli ical powe s.
Howe e , whe he hese coun ies ha e upheld he G77's collec i e cause and he
spi i o Sou h–Sou h solida i y is ques ionable. Conce ns ha hese coun ies ha e
e ol ed in o new o ms o economic and poli ical dominance, esembling he e y
sys ems hey once sough o challenge, wa an ca e ul examina ion.
P inciples, p ac ices, and he inc easing he o ical use o Sou h–Sou h
Coope a ion (SSC) also equi e e-e alua ion. P oponen s who iew SSC as an
emancipa o y agenda (see Mawdsley 2012, Ca mody 2013, Che u 2016, Muh 2016,
Be gamaschi e al. 2017) a e inc easingly o e shadowed by c i ics who a gue ha
he SSC he o ic adop ed by ising powe s in he Global Sou h is me ely symbolic,
aimed a secu ing a s onge posi ion wi hin he US-cen ed wo ld o de (see
Vanaik 2013, Bond & Ga cia 2015, Bond e al. 2021). Fu he mo e, ising powe s’
sub-impe ialis endencies also demand se ious sc u iny (see Çağlı 2009, Bond
2015, Valencia 2017, Bond e al. 2021).
In ecen yea s, he s udy o ising powe beha iou has eme ged as a dis inc
ield o inqui y. This is mainly d i en by he apid poli ical and economic ise o a
ew Global Sou h coun ies. The ocus o his s udy, India, o ins ance, is no longe
he poo de eloping coun y i used o be. I is an economic powe house, an
asse i e egional o ce, and a leading membe o he BRICS g ouping. Wi h i s
obus and consis en economic g ow h, expanding egional in luence, and
inc easing global ambi ions, con empo a y India embodies many o he
complexi ies and con adic ions associa ed wi h ising powe s. Analysing India's
6 While de eloping coun ies’ b oade poli ical agenda was p ima ily guided by he Non-Aligned Mo emen
(NAM), he G77 and he Uni ed Na ions Con e ence on T ade and De elopmen d o e hei economic agenda
(Alden e al. 2010).
14
o ganisa ion excessi ely con ols o in luences he in e nal a ai s o ano he
coun y o o ganisa ion. This could mani es in a ious ways, such as imposing
s ic condi ions on o eign aid, closely moni o ing and con olling he decision-
making p ocesses o ano he coun y's go e nmen , o in e ening in he in e nal
con lic s o ano he coun y. As I discuss in Chap e 6, when used in he con ex o
o eign policy p ac ice, mic omanagemen —as a o m o in e e ence in he in e nal
a ai s o ano he coun y—can unde mine so e eign y and limi he abili y o
poli ical ac o s o make hei own decisions.
In his hesis, I apply he e m ‘mic omanagemen ’ wi hin he con ex o o eign
policy. Following he signing o he Comp ehensi e Peace Acco d be ween he
Maois s and he Go e nmen o Nepal in 2006, ‘mic omanagemen ’ eme ged as a
signi ican buzzwo d in Nepal. The e m equen ly appea ed in he media s o ies
and opinion pieces used as da a in his s udy and was also widely e e enced by he
key in o man s du ing in e iews. Fo his hesis, ‘mic omanagemen ’ e e s
speci ically o India's in ica e and manipula i e in e en ions in Nepal du ing he
peace p ocess and he subsequen poli ical ansi ion.
While he lexicon o in e na ional ela ions equen ly employs e ms like powe
diplomacy, coe ci e diplomacy, and he combina ion o so and ha d powe o
cha ac e ise he in ol emen o s onge na ions in he a ai s o weake ones, he
ac o mic omanagemen can be a delibe a e ool used, o en wi h o he simila
ac ics, o achie e la ge s a egic goals.
1.6 Thesis S uc u e
This hesis consis s o ele en chap e s. Chap e 1 p esen s he esea ch ques ions,
aims, and objec i es, while also b ie ly in oducing and de ining key concep s used
h oughou he hesis. Addi ionally, his chap e highligh s he esea ch gap and
ou lines he s uc u e o he hesis.
Chap e 2 connec s me hods o heo y and da a, and jus i ies he
me hodological app oaches adop ed in he s udy. I ou lines he s udy’s on ological
and epis emological ounda ions and lays ou he esea ch design. The me hods
used, he da a accumula ion p ocess, and issues ela ed o alidi y, eliabili y,
esea ch e hics, and esea che posi ionali y a e ho oughly discussed. The chap e
explains he me hodological choices and how hey align wi h he esea ch objec i es
and he heo e ical amewo k o he s udy.
Chap e 3 ou lines a de ailed heo e ical amewo k o he s udy. I begins
wi h an in oduc ion o a iangula heo e ical amewo k and includes a c i ique
and e alua ion o he h ee main heo e ical s ands used in he s udy. The
heo e ical domains co e ed in he chap e a e: 1. Con lic media ion and hi d-
pa y engagemen , 2. Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion ( ising powe s, sub-impe ialism),
and 3. Dependency and Wo ld-sys ems app oaches. As p e iously s a ed, including
a di e en se o heo e ical pe spec i es is essen ial o a s udy o his ype, because
con empo a y peace p ocesses and poli ical ansi ions a e inhe en ly complex.
They should be s udied no in isola ion, bu in ela ion o global and egional powe
ela ions, as well as he b oade poli ical, socie al, and economic eali ies o ou
ime.
Chap e 4 e iews he exis ing li e a u e and p o ides a de ailed backg ound
o he esea ch con ex . I begins wi h a sec ion on he his o y o mode n Nepal and
discusses how India’s p esence has always been el in Nepal. I discusses he
human and economic cos s o he Maois a med con lic , as well as he adical
pa adigm shi i p omp ed in he Nepali poli ical landscape. Impo an de ails
15
conce ning p e-2005 media ion and nego ia ion a emp s, and he ole o
in e na ional in ol emen , a e p o ided. Finally, a e iew o he p e ious li e a u e
gi es insigh in o schola ly wo k on he Nepali peace p ocess, he poli ical
ansi ion, and India–Nepal ela ions du ing and a e he Maois a med
insu gency. This sec ion also iden i ies gaps in he exis ing li e a u e and jus i ies
he need o his s udy.
Chap e 5 explo es he genesis o he Nepali peace p ocess by elabo a ing on
he ci cums ances ha led o he signing o he 12-Poin Unde s anding be ween
he Maois s and he SPA in New Delhi in No embe 2005. The pac be ween he
wo opposi ion ac ions was ins umen al in ending bo h he a med con lic and
King Gyanend a’s di ec ule in Nepal. The 12-Poin oadmap ul ima ely ended
Nepal’s 240-yea -old mona chy, and Nepal became a ede al democ a ic epublic.
My ocus in his chap e is o loca e and analyse India’s ole—as an uno icial
media o and acili a o —in o ging he 12-Poin Unde s anding and in
o ches a ing subsequen poli ical e en s in Nepal. The chap e highligh s he Six-
Poin Ag eemen , signed in Oc obe 2005 in Nepal’s Rolpa Dis ic , which laid he
g oundwo k o a coali ion be ween he Maois s and he SPA, ul ima ely leading o
he 12-Poin Unde s anding.
Chap e 6 de ails India's ex ensi e and p olonged engagemen in Nepal du ing
he pos -con lic and poli ical ansi ion yea s. I shows ha du ing Nepal's poli ical
ansi ion, India in e ened ex ensi ely, using bo h so and ha d powe o con ol
Nepal's poli ical, bu eauc a ic, and secu i y ins i u ions. In he la e yea s, India
aced signi ican opposi ion om Nepal agains i s ha d powe ac ics, such as
coe ci e diplomacy and an economic blockade. India's e o s o mould Nepal’s
2015 cons i u ion in i s a ou and o eins a e Nepal’s iden i y as a Hindu na ion
also ailed.
In Chap e 7, India’s mo i es behind i s in ensi ied engagemen in Nepal’s
peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion a e ho oughly analysed. In his chap e , I
a gue ha India’s in ol emen in Nepal’s peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion was
nei he sudden no an isola ed e en . Ra he , i was an ‘in lamed’ episode in he
long and complex ela ionship be ween he wo coun ies. As a dominan playe in
his ela ionship—o en ma ked by pe iods o coope a ion and co-dependency as
well as coe cion and con lic —India’s undecla ed Nepal policy since he 1950s has
been o educe i in o a meek and pliable clien s a e. A e discussing India’s
geopoli ical, secu i y, economic, and esou ce in e es s in Nepal, I a gue ha India’s
ac ions in Nepal we e mainly aimed a u ning Nepal in o one o i s sub-impe ialis
des ina ions. This allowed India o gain con ol o e i s na u al esou ces—
especially wa e —and o pe pe ua e a wo ld sys em based on neolibe al capi alism
and a ious o ms o agg ession.
In Chap e 8, I examine India's sub-impe ialism in Nepal and he mindse
inhe en in he so-called ‘ ising India’. The chap e explains how India has
his o ically exe ed con ol o e Nepali poli ics, domes ic ma ke s, and na u al
esou ces, mainly o u he i s own in e es s. While India has en angled Nepal in a
web o dependencies, i s ela ionships wi h Wes e n powe s and global inancial
ins i u ions also display simila dependency pa e ns, essen ially ein o cing i s
sub-impe ialis posi ion. This chap e also explo es how India’s sub-impe ialism in
Sou h Asia is in e wined wi h i s in e nal colonial p ac ices a home—a s a egy
ha has se ed well o he g ow h o Hindu-na ionalis Hindu a poli ical ideology
and an unaba ed p oli e a ion o ex ac i is co po a e capi alism. The chap e
concludes wi h a discussion o he ising powe dilemma. I a gue ha , con a y o
ini ial hopes, he economic and poli ical ise o some coun ies in he Global Sou h
16
has no challenged Wes e n hegemony. Ins ead, hese ising powe s, such as India,
ha e inc easingly adop ed ex ac i is and opp essi e o eign policies and ha e
con ibu ed o he main enance o neolibe al egimes. This unde mines he hopes
o inclusi e and empowe ing Sou h–Sou h ela ions and he goals o c ea ing a
New In e na ional Economic O de . Howe e , g ass oo s mo emen s ocused on
an i-impe ialis and an i-hegemonic esis ance p o ide a glimme o hope o
smalle and less powe ul de eloping coun ies like Nepal.
In Chap e 9, he hesis e isi s he peace and con lic esea ch domain, in
which he consequences o India’s pos -con lic engagemen s in Nepal a e analysed.
By using se e al examples, I demons a e ha India’s in luence and Nepal’s
dependency on India signi ican ly inc eased in he pos -con lic con ex . By
capi alising on he media o na a i e— ha i had ini ia ed he Nepali peace
p ocess by acili a ing he 12-Poin Unde s anding—India consolida ed i s in luence
in pos -con lic Nepal. G adually, he Indian embassy in Ka hmandu and India’s
in elligence ope a i es gained signi ican le e age in shaping Nepal's pos -con lic
poli ical landscape. As a esul , Nepal ound i sel in a s a e o 'peace dependency',
wi h i s poli ical ac o s inc easingly elying on India o esol e pos -con lic c ises
and main ain in e nal s abili y. The concep o 'peace dependency' adds o
media ion li e a u e by p o iding a use ul pe spec i e o unde s anding and
assessing he complexi ies o pos -con lic en i onmen s.
Chap e 10 c i iques he Nepali peace p ocess and ou lines a ew aluable
lessons. Since mos o he key in o man s in e iewed o his s udy we e di ec ly
in ol ed in he peace p ocess and pos -con lic poli ical ansi ion, he
p ac i ione s' insigh s will be help ul o peace wo ke s, media o s, and nego ia o s
in ol ed in esol ing u u e con lic s in Nepal and elsewhe e. The main akeaway o
his chap e is ha Nepal's peace p ocess achie ed signi ican echnical and poli ical
miles ones—including a cessa ion o hos ili ies ag eemen , a comp ehensi e peace
ag eemen , comple ion o a Disa mamen , Demobilisa ion and Rein eg a ion
(DDR) p ocess, s a e es uc u ing, and a new cons i u ion. Howe e , e en a e
nea ly wo decades a e he CPA, he absence o a unc ioning ansi ional jus ice
amewo k and un esol ed socio-economic ans o ma ion issues con inue o
c ipple he peace p ocess, and lea e Nepal ulne able o u he social un es and
u u e con lic s.
Finally, in Chap e 11, I o e an execu i e summa y o he main indings and
make a ew concluding ema ks. The inal sec ion o his chap e o e s
ecommenda ions o u u e esea ch. These ecommenda ions migh be use ul o
esea che s in peace and con lic s udies, media ion s udies, Sou h–Sou h ela ions,
dependency, and in e na ional ela ions.
17
2. Resea ch Me hodology and Me hods
In his chap e , I discuss he me hodological s andpoin s adop ed in his s udy. I
begin by desc ibing he on ological and epis emological unde pinnings I ha e
chosen and hen p oceed o explain he me hodical choices I ha e made. I also
desc ibe he da a accumula ion p ocess and add ess alidi y, eliabili y, esea ch
e hics, and esea che posi ionali y issues. Issues conce ning ansla ion and da a
accumula ion om he In e ne a e also discussed.
Any academic esea ch demands ha he esea ch me hods used a e sound,
ele an , and me hodologically igo ous. A he same ime, hey need o co espond
o he esea ch ques ions being in es iga ed. In ha sense, selec ing he igh
esea ch me hods is impo an o any esea ch. Howe e , o a s udy o his ype,
which deals wi h as complex an issue as India's engagemen in Nepal, a ming
onesel wi h he igh esea ch me hods is e en mo e impo an .
This s udy is quali a i e, and i s me hodological ounda ion is buil on
quali a i e ools. Epis emological and me hodological ounda ions ypically guide a
esea che 's choice o me hods, and ha is wha I will do he e. In addi ion, a
esea che selec s me hods ha help him o he ind answe s o esea ch ques ions,
and ha e y con ic ion guided my choice o pa icula esea ch me hods.
Whe he quali a i e me hods a e sui able o his ype o esea ch is a poin
wo h conside ing. Snape & Spence (2003: 5) p esen quali a i e esea ch as a
'blend o empi ical in es iga ion and c ea i e disco e y' and a gue ha 'quali a i e
me hods a e used o add ess esea ch ques ions ha equi e explana ion o
unde s anding o social phenomena and hei con ex s’. In addi ion, hey a gue ha
quali a i e esea ch is pa icula ly sui able o ‘explo ing issues ha hold some
complexi y and o s udying p ocesses ha occu o e ime’. This explana ion is
ele an in his s udy, as i explo es an issue ha does hold some complexi y and
ocuses on e en s and p ocesses ha occu o e ime (i.e., mos ly be ween 2005 and
2017). Simila ly, So ae (1999: 1101) a gues ha quali a i e esea ch me hods a e
bes sui ed o p o iding ‘ ich desc ip ions o complex phenomena’ and ‘illumina ing
he expe ience and in e p e a ion o e en s by ac o s wi h widely di e ing s akes
and oles.’ This, oo, is he case wi h his s udy.
F om a me hodological poin o iew, quali a i e esea ch 'in ol es an
in e p e i e’ and ‘na u alis ic app oach o he wo ld' (Denzin & Lincoln 2000: 3).
In p ac ice, his means ha quali a i e esea che s 's udy hings in hei na u al
se ings, a emp ing o make sense o , o o in e p e , phenomena in e ms o he
meanings people b ing o hem' (Denzin & Lincoln 2000: 3). Quali a i e me hods
a e pa icula ly sui ed o cap u ing he complexi y o social phenomena and
p o iding in-dep h insigh s in o p ocesses such as con lic esolu ion, diploma ic
in e ac ions, and ela ions be ween di e en ac o s. Though quan i a i e esea ch
me hods a e common in da a-d i en s udies in peace and global de elopmen
esea ch, quali a i e esea ch me hods a e also equally obus and widely u ilised.
Quali a i e esea ch me hods–such as in e iews, obse a ion, and case s udies–
18
ha e been ex ensi ely used in bo h peace and in e na ional ela ions esea ch,8 as
well as in global de elopmen esea ch.9
Be o e p o iding a de ailed desc ip ion o he esea ch me hods used in his s udy,
i is help ul o examine he esea ch pa adigm adop ed. A esea ch pa adigm
consis s o on ology, epis emology, me hodology and me hods. On ology ' ela es o
being, o wha is, o wha exis s’ (Hay 2002: 61), o i is a ‘ ision o he wo ld as i
eally is’ (Ge ing 2007: 53). While on ology is abou eali y, epis emology is abou
he ways o knowing ha eali y (Guba 1990). In Hay’s (2002: 62) wo ds,
epis emology 'is he science o philosophy o knowledge'. Simila ly, Schwand
(2001: 71) de ines epis emology as ' he s udy o he na u e o knowledge and
jus i ica ion'.
Epis emology is ins umen al in guiding me hodological choices and is moulded
by ' esea ch objec i es, ques ions, and s udy design' (Ca e & Li le 2007: 1). On
he o he hand, a me hodology is 'a heo y and analysis o how esea ch should
p oceed' (Ha ding 1987: 2). In ha sense, a me hodology is a jus i ica ion and
explana ion o me hods, and no a me hod i sel (Kaplan 1964: 18). Me hods a e
ools and echniques o ga he ing da a and e idence (Ha ding 1987: 2) as well as
hei analysis.
This s udy adop s a c i ical ealis app oach as i s philosophical and
epis emological an age poin . C i ical ealism, ini ially de eloped by he Indo–
B i ish social scien is and philosophe Roy Bhaska 10 in he 1970s, p o ides a
s ong philosophical g ounding o science, and o e s a c edible al e na i e o
posi i is and in e p e i e/cons uc ionis app oaches (Al esson & Sköldbe g 2017:
39–40).
Unde s anding c i ical ealism and i s ele ance in oday’s complex social wo ld
is easie when i is compa ed o i s al e na i es: posi i ism and social
cons uc ionism. While posi i ism is mo e o less ixa ed on he empi ical analysis
o objec i e phenomena and demons a ing causal ela ions be ween di e en
a iables, cons uc ionism ocuses on he subjec i e in e p e a ion o eali y.
Cons uc i is app oaches emphasise ha 'knowledge and eali y do no ha e an
objec i e o absolu e alue o , a he leas , ha we ha e no way o knowing his
eali y' (Mu phy 1997: 5). Thei ocus, he eby, is on in en ing o c ea ing he
p ope ies o he wo ld, a he han disco e ing hem (Kukla 2000). While
cons uc ionism can be use ul in e ealing insigh s in o how people in e ac wi h
he wo ld (C eswell 2009), some migh conside i s ixa ion on subjec i e human
in e p e a ion o he wo ld as a limi a ion.
C i ical ealism a gues ha ‘ he e is a eal wo ld ou he e’ (Joseph 2014: 1) and
ha ‘ eali y exis s independen ly om esea che s’ ideas and desc ip ions o i ’
(Al esson & Sköldbe g 2017: 41) o om ‘people’s pe cep ions, language, o
imagina ion’ (O’ Mahoney & Vincen 2014: 2–3). Like posi i is s, c i ical ealis s
8 See, o ins ance, Wiene (2009), Klo z & P akash (2008) o quali a i e esea ch in IR, and Milla (2018),
Höglund & Obe g (2011) o a b oade unde s anding o he use o quali a i e esea ch me hods in peace
esea ch.
9 See, o ins ance, Sko dal & Co nish (2015) o how quali a i e esea ch me hods ha e p ac ical implica ions
o in e na ional de elopmen esea ch and p ac ice, and Mo ow & C i ello (2015) o an elabo a e
unde s anding o how quali a i e longi udinal esea ch o e s signi ican insigh in o issues ela ed o
in e na ional de elopmen . In addi ion, de ailed coun y case s udies by Colle a e al. (1996) in E hiopia,
Namibia, and Uganda o e a comp ehensi e pic u e o he in ica e na u e o poli ical, economic, and
sociocul u al issues in coun ies ansi ioning om wa o peace.
10 Though ini ially p oposed by Bhaska , c i ical ealism has e ol ed as a collec i e en e p ise o a ious
schola s, including Ma ga e A che , Me yn Ha wig, Alan No ie, and Tony Lawson. While some a gue ha
he Ma xis no ion o science hea ily in luences c i ical ealism, o he s ejec i s alleged a ini y wi h Ma xism.
19
also a emp o seek causal explana ions, bu hei emphasis is no necessa ily on
showing p edic able pa e ns o es ablishing causal links. In c i ical ealism,
‘ ela ions a e complex and causali y can exis on di e en le els’ (O’ Mahoney &
Vincen 2014: 42). Elabo a ing on he c i ical ealis iew o eali y, Dane ma k e
al. (2002: 26) a gue ha ‘ eali y exis s and is wha i is’. Howe e , hey emphasise
ha ‘ he kind o knowledge ha is p oduced depends on wha p oblems we ha e
and wha ques ions we ask in ela ion o he wo ld a ound us’.
Bhaska (1975: 56) ad oca ed o a s a i ied on ology, in which eali y consis ed
o complex, o e lapping laye s. He used h ee domains o cla i y he no ion o
eali y: he empi ical, he ac ual, and he eal. The empi ical encompasses elemen s
ha can be obse ed o ac i i ies ha ake place in ou immedia e expe ience. The
ac ual is a he b oade , some hing ha akes place independen ly o he obse e ,
and he eal encompasses mechanisms ha a e p oduc i e o di e en e en s and
o he 'su ace phenomena' (Al esson & Sköldbe g 2017: 40).
Fo c i ical ealis s, he aim o scien i ic o schola ly wo k is ' o in es iga e and
iden i y ela ionships and non- ela ionships, espec i ely, be ween wha we
expe ience, wha ac ually happens, and he unde lying mechanisms ha p oduce
he e en s in he wo ld' (Dane ma k e al., 2002: 21). The ealis no ion he eby
absol es esea che s om wha c i ical ealis s call he 'epis emological allacy', a
si ua ion in which he eal wo ld is educed o he knowledge we ha e o i , a no ion
dea ly che ished in he posi i is and cons uc i is adi ions (Joseph 2014: 2).
Howe e , c i ical ealis s ad oca e o a b oade unde s anding o he eal,
some hing ha goes beyond me e objec s and objec i ica ion, and encompasses
o he seemingly abs ac elemen s, oo. As Al esson & Sköldbe g (2017: 41) pu i :
The eal is cen al o c i ical ealism. The e is a s ong con ic ion ega ding he eal and he
possibili y o iden i ying i . Some hing is eal i i has a causal e ec , ha is, i i a ec s
beha iou and makes a di e ence. Reali y does no jus consis o ma e ial objec s. Ideas
and discou ses a e eal and can ha e causal e ec s.
C i ical ealis s a gue ha causal p ocesses a e p esen no only in he na u al wo ld
bu also in he social wo ld. Because o ha , an a emp mus be made o iden i y
causal explana ions in in e ac ions and in e plays in di e en social p ocesses
(Elde -Vass 2012: 10). C i ical ealism he eby embeds elemen s o posi i ism, such
as he in e es in he ‘objec i e wo ld, pa e ns, gene aliza ion and inding
causali ies’ (Al esson & Sköldbe g 2017: 40). Howe e , c i ical ealis s do no limi
hemsel es o wha is obse able and measu able, bu a emp o go deepe , o
analyse complex and ‘in isible’ dimensions. In essence, c i ical ealis s a gue
agains he p ac ice o educing a complex wo ld o me e obse able objec s and
ac s. While accep ing some ene s o objec i ism/posi i ism, hey s i e o unea h
unde lying s uc u es ha engende a ious ou comes, including causal e en s.
The e is a g owing need o social scien is s o inco po a e bo h ealis and social
cons uc ionis app oaches o analyse oday's complex poli ical and social
p ocesses. This can be done success ully wi hin he domain o c i ical ealism. I
necessa y, he combina ion o he wo could also be e med ‘ ealis social
cons uc ionism’ (Elde -Vass 2013).
Agains his backd op, his s udy akes a c i ical ealis app oach o explo e
India’s engagemen in Nepal’s peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion, p ima ily
be ween 2005 and 2017. The c i ical ealis app oach is pa icula ly sui able in a
case s udy such as his one because wha I explo e and analyse in his s udy expands
beyond me e subjec i e in e p e a ion. As documen ed in la e chap e s, he pe iod
20
I co e ed ma ks he end o an a med insu gency in Nepal ha claimed mo e han
17,000 li es. Al hough he pains om ha ime a e ading, hey can s ill be el
oday. The coun y also expe ienced a ious o he dis up i e e en s, including a
massi e people’s mo emen , he end o a 240-yea -old mona chy, he
es ablishmen o a new s a e s uc u e, wo de as a ing ea hquakes, and an
economic blockade by India, which led o a humani a ian c isis.
E en hough he exp essions and in e p e a ions o hese a e ul e en s migh
a y, he expe iences o nuisance and loss, s uggle and ic o y, and con lic and
su e ing a e eal. They each ha e hei own on ological posi ion, exis ence, and
meaning. So do mass mo emen s, ea ies, ag eemen s, ideologically mo i a ed
a med s uggles, and he expe iences o pain, joy, eedom, o exploi a ion ha
millions o people expe ience and eel. This is whe e c i ical ealism se es as a
philosophical app oach o looking a hese sophis ica ed, mul ilaye ed on ologies.
The c i ical ealis app oach is commonly used in in e na ional ela ions as well
as in peace and media ion esea ch. Joseph (2014: 4), o ins ance, a gues ha since
c i ical ealism adop s a 'plu alis ic app oach o esea ch me hods', i can be an
excellen choice o esea che s in es iga ing ela ions be ween coun ies. C i ical
ealis s a gue ha di e en esea ch me hods can be used o explo e di e en
aspec s o on ological eali y, hus challenging he p imacy o me hod. As Pa omäki
(2019: 189) pu s i , c i ical ealism p o ides a 'plausible, a ionally e ol ing
amewo k o poli ics, poli ical economy, and o he social sciences'. In Ku ki's
(2008: 378) wo ds, c i ical ealism di ec s in e na ional ela ions (IR) heo is s
‘ owa ds mo e holis ic, e lec i e and me hodologically plu alis ic causal heo ies'.
Simila ly, c i ical ealism has been a gued o be pa icula ly sui able o esea ching
ans o ma i e changes o e ime (Alde son 2019: 54), which is he case wi h his
s udy.
Finally, i is impo an o emphasise, in a c i ical ealis ashion, ha he e can
be mul iple in e p e a ions o ‘ he u h’. The da a I ga he ed and he a gumen s
and analysis I o e in his s udy cons i u e only one pe spec i e, which migh ha e
been a ec ed by a ious elemen s, including my posi ion as a Nepali esea che . I
I we e using a di e en me hodological app oach, elying on di e en heo e ical
domains, and collec ing da a using di e en me hods and om sou ces o he han
he ones used he e, hen I would be o e ing a di e en pe spec i e, bu no
necessa ily a less impo an one.
2.1 Case S udy Resea ch and I s Componen s
This s udy employed he case s udy me hod as he p incipal esea ch app oach. This
s udy p esen s a ocused case analysis o India’s ole in Nepal h oughou he la e ’s
peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion be ween 2005 and 2017. The case s udy is
based on da a collec ed om he ollowing sou ces: semi-s uc u ed key in o man
in e iews, media ma e ials collec ed om media a chi es, opinion pieces and
media in e iews o key in o man s, and an analysis o ideo in e iews and
speeches o key in o man s e ie ed om he In e ne (see Appendix 1).11
The case s udy me hod is equen ly employed as a esea ch app oach wi hin he
ields o peace and con lic s udies, in e na ional ela ions, and global de elopmen
s udies. The case s udy me hod has been de ined and cha ac e ised in a ious ways,
bo h as a dis inc esea ch app oach and as an in e sec ion o mul iple esea ch
me hodologies. Fo ins ance, Yin (2018: 50) de ines a case s udy as ‘an empi ical
11 A de ailed desc ip ion o how hese me hods we e selec ed and used is p o ided la e in his chap e .
21
inqui y ha in es iga es a con empo a y phenomenon wi hin i s eal-li e con ex ,
especially when he bounda ies be ween phenomenon and con ex a e no clea ly
e iden ’. He emphasises ha adop ing he case s udy me hod o an empi ical
in es iga ion o a con empo a y phenomenon also demands mul iple sou ces o
e idence. O he schola s also emphasise he impo ance o mul iple sou ces o
e idence in case s udy esea ch (see, o ins ance, S ake 1995, Ge ing 2007,
Woodside 2010).
The jus i ica ion o adop ing he case s udy me hod, along wi h i s sui abili y
and applicabili y in esea ch design, is closely ied o he esea ch ques ions. In
o he wo ds, no e e y s udy can be classi ied as a case s udy. The applica ion o he
case s udy me hod equi es jus i ica ion, mus connec o he esea ch ques ions
and design, and should add ess key issues o alidi y and eliabili y.
Many schola s ha e a gued ha he case s udy me hod is sui able, o a he
p e e able, in s udies ha a e complex and demand a ho ough in es iga ion. In
o he wo ds, i is pa icula ly sui able o s udies ha demand answe s o ‘why’ and
‘how’ ques ions (Rowley 2002: 16–17, Yin 2003). Ge ing (2007: 49) a gues ha
he dep h ha he case s udy me hod o e s can be unde s ood as ‘ he de ail,
ichness, comple eness, wholeness, o he deg ee o a iance in an ou come ha is
accoun ed o by an explana ion’.
The opics case s udy esea ch can co e a y widely. I can be employed o s udy
‘p og ams, e en s, pe sons, p ocesses, ins i u ions, social g oups, and o he
con empo a y phenomena’ (Hancock & Algozzine 2017: 15–16). The unde lying
idea behind case s udy esea ch is conduc ing ‘an in ensi e s udy o a single case
(o a small se o cases) wi h an aim o gene alise ac oss a la ge numbe o cases o
he same gene al ype’ (Ge ing 2007: 65). Howe e , gene alisa ion is no always
he aim, no is i a equi emen . As al eady indica ed abo e, case s udies can be used
o ge an in-dep h unde s anding o an issue, e en s, p ocesses o an ongoing
phenomenon. Case s udies o e an empi ical ounda ion o heo e ical analysis,
bu hey also ‘s and in hei own igh as his o ical explana ions’ (Geo ge & Smoke
1974: 105).
E en hough i has been a gued ha case s udies ha e o be sui able o bo h
heo y building and as heo y es ing (Woodside 2010: 11), some schola s a gue ha
hey a e pa icula ly use ul in gene a ing new hypo heses (Ge ing 2007: 38).
Eisenha d (1989: 548–549), o ins ance, a gues ha case s udies a e pa icula ly
well sui ed o esea ch a eas o which exis ing heo y seems inadequa e.
Eisenha d 's a gumen aligns wi h he objec i es o his s udy. This s udy’s pu pose
is no heo y es ing, bu o p o ide a nuanced in e p e a ion and analysis o a
complex opic. Fo ins ance, by adop ing his analy ical app oach, I de eloped he
concep o ‘peace dependency’, which I discuss in Chap e 9.
When i comes o me hodical p ac ice, case s udy esea ch o en includes
‘collec ing and in e p e ing s o ies indi iduals ell abou hei li es and e en s ha
hey belie e ha hey know abou ’ (Woodside 2010: 41). O en, case s udy esea ch
is ‘ ichly desc ip i e’, ‘g ounded in deep and a ied sou ces o in o ma ion’ and
employs da a, such as, ‘quo es o key pa icipan s, anecdo es, p ose composed om
in e iews, and o he li e a y echniques o c ea e men al images ha b ing o li e
he complexi y o he many a iables inhe en in he phenomenon being s udied’
(Hancock & Algozzine 2017: 16).
Case s udies ha e been di ided in o a ious sub ypes and sub-ca ego ies, and
22
he e a e se e al a ia ions o his me hod.12 One o he mo e no able and widely
ci ed ca ego isa ions is ha o Yin (2003). He di ides he case s udy esea ch design
in o h ee pa s: explo a o y, desc ip i e, and explana o y. Acco ding o him,
explo a o y case s udies a e o en used o de ine ques ions and hypo heses, usually
o ca y ou u he esea ch. Desc ip i e case s udies a e use ul in desc ibing a
pa icula phenomenon wi hin a con ex , whe eas explana o y case s udies ocus on
explo ing causal ela ionships. Howe e , I ound i di icul and unnecessa y o
ca ego ise his s udy in o one o hese sub ypes. While i is a singula case s udy
ocused on a speci ic opic, i includes explo a i e, explana o y, and desc ip i e
componen s a di e en s ages. Since he e is no in insic need o ca ego ise his
s udy in o a pa icula ca ego y, I p e e o use simple nomencla u e, e e ing o i
simply as a ‘case s udy.’
Despi e i s widesp ead popula i y, especially in a ious disciplines o he social
sciences, case s udy esea ch has been c i icised on a ious g ounds. One o he
mo e common c i icisms has been cen ed a ound he idea ha case s udy esea ch
has no bounda ies and ha i can accommoda e any hing, and any hing can be
made o call a case s udy. Maoz (2002: 164–165), o ins ance, a gues ha case
s udies ha e been synonymous wi h ‘some so o ee- o m esea ch ha can
embed basically e e y hing and any hing, and he esea che does no necessa ily
eel compelled o jus i y why ce ain cases a e selec ed, which da a a e used and
which da a a e igno ed, and how da a p ocessing and analysis is achie ed’.
In addi ion, as Idowu (2016: 184) a gues, case s udy esea ch has been ‘o en
cha ged wi h causal de e minism, non- eplicabili y, subjec i e conclusions,
absence o gene alizable conclusions, biased case selec ion and lack o empi ical
clou ’. Idowu u he a gues ha one o he mos equen c i icisms o case s udy
esea ch is ha case s udies o en depend on ‘single cases’; hus, hey lack scien i ic
o schola ly igou and a e unable o p o ide a gene alising conclusion (p. 185).
Case s udy esea ch has been c i icised o i s po en ial e i ica ion bias, which
means ha case s udies o en con i m he esea che ’s p econcei ed no ions and
ideas (Idowu 2016). Simila ly, Feagin e al. (1991: 7) a gue ha ‘i espec i e o he
ype, pu pose, uni o analysis, o design, igou is a cen al conce n in case s udy
esea ch’.
Howe e , some o hese c i icisms a e un ounded, o hey do no accu a ely
cha ac e ise he case s udy me hod. Fo ins ance, he lack o me hodological igou
in speci ic esea ch o by a pa icula esea che can s em om a lawed esea ch
design o negligence. I should no be seen as an inhe en law in he esea ch
me hod i sel . This is pa icula ly ele an when he e a e plen y o case s udies ha
a e bo h igo ous and eliable. C i icisms, such as hose o Maoz (2002), ha
e e y hing goes wi h case s udies and ha case s udy esea che s a e exemp om
jus i ying hei case selec ion, also do no e lec he ue pic u e o case s udy
esea ch, o how many esea che s ha e used his me hod. Wi hou a ho ough
jus i ica ion o he choices made and a de ailed explana ion o all esea ch
p ocedu es—including me hods o sampling, da a collec ion, da a p ocessing, and
analysis—any s udy, ega dless o whe he i is a case s udy o no , canno mee
scien i ic and schola ly s anda ds.
Howe e , he case s udy me hod does ha e i s d awbacks. Like any o he
12 Zainal (2007: 1–6), o ins ance, ca ego ises case s udies in o wo ypes: in e p e i e and e alua i e. S ake
(1995) p oposed di iding hem in o h ee ypes: in insic, ins umen al, and collec i e. Whe eas Dul & Hak
(2008) a gued ha case s udies could be simply o wo ypes: he single case s udy and he compa a i e case
s udy.
23
esea ch me hod, i has limi a ions, po en ial pi alls, and biases. Ne e heless,
he e a e sys ema ic s a egies ha esea che s can employ o minimise hese
issues. This can enhance igou and eliabili y du ing esea ch design as well as in
da a collec ion, p ocessing, and analysis. This is he app oach I ook in his s udy.
An exhaus i e analysis o he p os and cons o he case s udy me hod is beyond
he scope o his hesis. Howe e , he bo om line is ha , despi e i s limi a ions, he
case s udy me hod emains widely used in con empo a y social and poli ical
esea ch. Case s udies p o ide a aluable and in-dep h unde s anding o a
phenomenon and can also in luence policy, p ac ices, and u u e esea ch (Me iam
2001). In esponse o c i ics who highligh me hodological igou as a conce n in
case s udy esea ch, a ious echniques and app oaches ha e been sugges ed by i s
p oponen s. These ecommenda ions help ensu e ha case s udy esea ch is
ho ough, eliable, and me hodologically igo ous.
Imp o ing alidi y and eliabili y has been sugges ed as one o he s a egies o
ensu ing me hodical igou in case s udy esea ch, and ha is he app oach I ha e
aken in his s udy. In p ac ice, his means demons a ing a ma ch be ween
ope a ional measu es and he subjec s being in es iga ed and es ablishing a
connec ion be ween he collec ed da a and he esea ch ques ions (Rowly 2002).
The quali a i e ield is cha ac e ised by a di e si y o pa adigms and
me hodologies, making i challenging o es ablish uni e sal c i e ia o alidi y. A
simplis ic app oach ha a emp s o de ine global quali a i e c i e ia would be
inaccu a e and isk o e simpli ying he complex and nuanced na u e o quali a i e
esea ch. Mo eo e , me hodologies wi hin he quali a i e ield also emphasise
o he quali y c i e ia such as c edibili y, ans e abili y, us wo hiness, and
au hen ici y. These c i e ia help ensu e igou and us wo hiness in quali a i e
esea ch (see, o ins ance, Lincoln & Guba 1985, Mille 2008, Gi en 2008). The
alidi y o all esea ch can be imp o ed by ‘ensu ing ha esea ch p ocedu es
emain cohe en and anspa en , esea ch esul s a e e iden , and esea ch
conclusions a e con incing’ (Mille 2008: 910).
I ha e used h ee me hods o enhance he alidi y, eliabili y, and c edibili y o
my esea ch. These a e: 1. Da a iangula ion, 2. Re lexi i y, and 3. Ensu ing
anspa ency and main aining a chain o e idence. Da a iangula ion in ol es he
use o mul iple da a sou ces and is an excellen way o enhance alidi y (Yin 2003,
Adolphus 2011). As pa o his s a egy, I used da a om he key in o man
in e iews, bu also accumula ed ele an a icles, speeches, opinion pieces, and
ideos om In e ne a chi es. My o he s a egy has been he implemen a ion o
e lexi i y a e e y s ep o he esea ch p ocess.
Applying e lexi i y in he con ex o his esea ch mean becoming mo e sel -
awa e and c i ically examining my own biases, assump ions, and posi ionali y as a
na i e Nepali esea che wi h ce ain socio-poli ical belie s and inclina ions.
Re lexi i y also helped me be e unde s and he social, cul u al, and his o ical
con ex in which I was in es iga ing his pa icula opic. As Da ies (2012) poin s
ou , e lexi i y helps esea che s ca y ou mo e in o med and in ospec i e
esea ch, which also e lec s my expe ience du ing his esea ch p ocess.
Re lexi i y was a con inuous and delibe a e p ac ice h oughou his esea ch.
Fo ins ance, a e each in e iew, I engaged in pe sonal e lec ions o c i ically
assess how my posi ionali y, assump ions, o emo ions may ha e in luenced he
in e ac ion and in e p e a ion o he da a. These e lec ions o en o med he basis
o subsequen discussions wi h my supe iso s, whe e I openly examined he
me hodological and e hical choices I had made and in i ed hei c i ique o iden i y
po en ial blind spo s. I also ook p oac i e s eps o ecognise and add ess possible
30
2.2.3 The Da a Collec ion P ocess
The da a collec ion p ocess o his s udy began in mid-2017. I spen 2016 and he
ini ial mon hs o 2017 mos ly eading abou he esea ch opic, making da a
collec ion plans, es ablishing con ac s o in e iews, and inalising ieldwo k
p epa a ions. I spen he summe o 2017 (June, July, and Augus ) in Nepal, du ing
which he semi-s uc u ed key in o man in e iews (n=18) we e conduc ed.
As p esen ed abo e in Figu e 1, he s udy d aws om a dual da a collec ion
app oach, ha nessing insigh s om wo p ima y sou ces: key in o man s and media
ma e ials. In e iews we e conduc ed wi h 18 key in o man s. Addi ional da a we e
ob ained om bo h in e iewed and non-in e iewed key in o man s, including
opinion pieces, in e iews gi en o o he media ou le s, and analyses o selec ed
ideo in e iews and speeches.
Fu he mo e, in he second s age o he da a accumula ion p ocess, media
a icles om Nepali media ou le s we e compiled and analysed. A a ge ed keywo d
sea ch wi hin media a chi es helped ga he and examine ele an a icles ela ed o
he s udy's ocus.
2.2.4 Key In o man Dis ibu ion and Key In o ma ion In e iews
As explained abo e, he key in o man s we e chosen using a s a i ied pu posi e
sampling me hod, and hei dis ibu ion was as ollows.
Table 1: Dis ibu ion o Key In o man s
Sample ca ego y
Numbe
1. Poli ical ac o s and in luence s
High-p o ile poli ical leade s, peace nego ia o s, and poli icians who
we e in a ious in luen ial posi ions du ing Nepal’s peace p ocess
and poli ical ansi ion (i.e. om 2005 o 2017).
The lis includes a o me p ime minis e who o e saw he
implemen a ion o some c ucial aspec s o he peace p ocess and led
Nepal o 20 mon hs as p ime minis e du ing he poli ical
ansi ion. The lis also includes one o me depu y p ime minis e ,
one o me depu y p ime minis e and o eign minis e , membe s o
pa liamen , o me minis e s, and a go e nmen nego ia o o icially
ep esen ing he go e nmen o Nepal in he 2006 CPA p ocess.
A senio communis leade and o me depu y p ime minis e
in e iewed had in o mally acili a ed alks wi h he Maois s yea s
be o e he 12-Poin Unde s anding was signed in India. I also
in e iewed he only emale membe o he Cen al Commi ee o he
Maois s when he pa y decided o launch he a med s uggle in
1996. She was also he only emale membe o he ‘dialogue
commi ee’, headed by he Maois chai man Pushpa Kamal Dahal
(P achanda), and o med by he ebels o nego ia e a peace deal wi h
he go e nmen o Nepal.
8
2. Peace & secu i y expe s and ci il socie y ac i is s
In his ca ego y, I in e iewed wo peace and secu i y expe s
in ol ed in Nepal’s peace p ocess. The o he key in o man s we e
ci il socie y ac i is s who played ac i e oles in Nepal’s democ a ic
5
31
and peace mo emen . One o he in e iewees se ed as an
independen obse e du ing he 2006 peace nego ia ions be ween
he Maois s and he ep esen a i es o he go e nmen o Nepal in
Ka hmandu.
3. In es iga i e jou nalis s, Peace & IR esea che s
In his ca ego y, I in e iewed jou nalis s and esea che s who ha e
ex ensi ely w i en and published on Nepal’s peace p ocess, poli ical
ansi ion, and India–Nepal ela ions.
5
I began o con ac he key in o man s in sp ing 2017 as my ip o Nepal was al eady
con i med, and he in e iews we e scheduled o he summe . Ini ially, I used
email and social media o con ac he key in o man s. In emails and social media
messages I sen , I in oduced mysel and explained he aims and scope o my
esea ch and my willingness o in e iew hem. I ecei ed an encou aging esponse
om jou nalis s, esea che s, and ci il socie y ac i is s. Poli ical leade s, howe e ,
ba ely esponded.
Once in Nepal, I collec ed elephone numbe s o he poli ical leade s I wan ed
o in e iew. Fo his, I used a con ac in o ma ion bookle o Nepal’s pa liamen ,
which was a ailable online. In addi ion, I used my poli ical con ac s in Nepal o be
in ouch wi h high-p o ile poli ical leade s whose con ac in o ma ion was no
publicly a ailable. High-p o ile poli ical leade s we e mos ly con ac ed h ough
hei pe sonal sec e a ies and assis an s. In gene al, sending ex messages o
poli ical leade s o hei assis an s—de ailing who I was and why I wan ed o
in e iew hem—p o ed o be he mos e ec i e s a egy o ge a esponse om
hem.
T us building is a key s a egy o ge ing quali y da a, pa icula ly om eli e
in e iews, and being anspa en is a p e equisi e o us building (Os ande
1993). I also expe ienced ha being open and anspa en abou my own iden i y,
he esea ch I was conduc ing, and i s aims, scopes, and objec i es was an excellen
way o build us wi h he key in o man s. In addi ion, as Lilleke (2003: 214)
sugges s, being well-p epa ed, well-o ganised, ac ul, p o essional, and exuding
con idence also helped.
Mos in e iews ook place in he in o man s' homes o o ices. One was held
disc ee ly in a quie ca é due o logis ical cons ain s, bu he se ing el less
conduci e. I ecommend p io i ising home o o ice en i onmen s o g ea e
s abili y. The in e iews we e conduc ed one-on-one, os e ing a di ec and
pe sonal in e ac ion be ween me and he key in o man s. Howe e , occasional
isi s by pe sonal sec e a ies o some leade s we e no uncommon. Al hough no
di ec ly in ol ed in he con e sa ions, hei p esence added a laye o in e up ion
o he in e iew p ocess. None heless, he essence o he in e iews emained
unal e ed— he ocus es ed solely on he exchange be ween me and he key
in o man s, ensu ing a p i a e and exclusi e dialogue.
One o he issues I epea edly encoun e ed while conduc ing he in e iews was
ha he esponden s s uggled wi h emembe ing ac s. The issue was mos ly wi h
da es, bu , on occasion, con usion also occu ed wi h names and places. Howe e ,
his appea s o be a common issue in key in o ma ion in e iews. I adop ed he
ecommenda ions o Da ies (2001) o dealing wi h possible da a incong ui y
caused by he esponden s’ memo y issues. He ecommends a iangula ion
s a egy o minimise such e o s. The ecommenda ions include c oss- e e encing
32
in e iew da a wi h published i s hand accoun s o o he documen a y sou ces and
e i ying hem wi h published seconda y sou ce ma e ial (p. 77–79). Fo impo an
da es and ac s, I c oss-checked and e i ied he in o ma ion p o ided by he key
in o man s by consul ing a ailable o icial documen s. When such e i ica ion
sou ces we e una ailable, I elied on eliable published sou ces and, on occasion,
on media sou ces.
The in e iew da a collec ed om he 18 key in o man in e iews o alled 16.36
hou s (i.e., 982 minu es). On a e age, each in e iew las ed 55 minu es and 55
seconds. The longes in e iew was 91 minu es, and he sho es las ed o 20
minu es.14 An in e iew guide was used o conduc he in e iews, wi h ques ions
cus omised o each candida e based on hei p e ious expe ience and a ea o
expe ise. E en hough each key in o man ecei ed sligh ly modi ied ques ions, he
in e iew heme was la gely consis en ac oss all pa icipan s. The in e iews began
wi h a ques ion abou he key in o man s' own expe iences and in ol emen in he
peace p ocess be o e ansi ioning o he b oade issues explo ed in his s udy. In
he end, each key in o man was asked o discuss b ie ly some key lessons om he
Nepali peace p ocess ha could be use ul in o he pos -con lic scena ios. Nea ly all
in e iews ended wi h his ques ion.
E en hough my key in o man lis included 40 key in o man s, mee ing and
in e iewing e e yone on he lis was impossible. As 2017 was an elec ion yea in
Nepal, some key in o man s who had p omised o gi e an in e iew in o med me a
he las minu e ha hey we e oo busy. Mo eo e , some key in o man s, especially
hose holding high-p o ile poli ical posi ions, we e eluc an o be in e iewed. Fo
ins ance, a senio go e nmen minis e , who had played a isibly impo an ole in
he peace nego ia ion p ocess, ag eed o mee me a he minis y o ice. Howe e ,
when I b ie ed him abou my s udy and i s hemes, he poli ely declined he
in e iew eques . He men ioned he was oo busy o an in e iew ha day and ha
his assis an s would con ac me wi hin a week. Despi e my epea ed ollow-ups, my
a emp o in e iew him was unsuccess ul. He migh ha e genuinely been busy as
a senio go e nmen minis e , bu i is also possible he wan ed o a oid my
ques ions. Talking abou India’s in ol emen in Nepal is o en di icul o Nepali
poli icians, especially when hey a e in a posi ion o powe .
2.2.5 Media Ma e ials om In e ne A chi es
To supplemen he da a om my key in o man in e iews, I de eloped an
addi ional da a accumula ion s a egy. This ime, I explo ed online a chi es o
popula p in and digi al Nepali media ou le s and looked o opinion pieces and
in e iews ea u ing my key in o man s. While doing so, my main p io i y was o
co e he key in o man s I had been unable o in e iew. In addi ion, I also
inco po a ed ma e ials such as news, opinion pieces, and wo ks o in-dep h
epo ing ha we e no s ic ly linked o my key in o man s bu we e ele an o he
esea ch ques ions.
I began his s age by iden i ying a ge ed keywo ds and ele an ph ases. In his
p ocess, I ensu ed ha he keywo ds and ph ases selec ed cap u ed he key
concep s and hemes unde in es iga ion. The keywo ds and key ph ases I used
14 E en hough each key in o man ecei ed almos he same numbe o ques ions, a ew key in o man s
p e e ed answe ing only b ie ly, and as a esul , some in e iews we e signi ican ly sho e han he a e age
leng h o he in e iews, which was 55 minu es and 55 seconds.
33
we e bo h gene al and speci ic.15 P edominan ly, I used Nepali keywo ds and key
ph ases since mos o he con en ele an o his esea ch was w i en in Nepali. I
also included some English key ph ases because some o he media po als I
explo ed had con en in English.
Table 2: Media ma e ial sou ces and hei dis ibu ion
Media sou ces
Numbe o ex s/a icles selec ed
Kan ipu Dainik
34
Onlinekhaba
20
Se opa i
12
Ra opa i
8
Annapu na Pos
6
Lokaan a
6
Nepalli e
4
Nepal Magazine
3
My Republica (English)
3
Nepali Times (English)
2
The Himalayan Times (English)
1
The Ka hmandu Pos (English)
1
D is i Weekly
1
HimalKhaba
1
Naga ik Daily
1
Nepal Aaja
1
Ham aku a
1
To al
105
O he 105 pieces selec ed, 98 we e w i en in Nepali, while se en we e in English.
Da a we e ga he ed om 17 media sou ces (see Table 2) using wo sea ch engines
(Google and Bing) and he in e nal a chi es o six media ou le s: Kan ipu Daily,
Onlinekhaba , Se opa i, Ra opa i, Annapu na Pos , and Lokaan a .
One o he challenges I aced while accumula ing da a using he sea ch engines
was na iga ing h ough he massi e amoun o con en . Wi h he appa en
explosion o online media in Nepal o e he las wo decades, he Nepali online
media space has become c owded wi h a as amoun o con en . E en o a
ela i ely expe ienced media consume like me, i is no always easy o dis inguish
be ween ac s, dis o ed ac s, and ake news. Du ing online da a accumula ion, I
encoun e ed se e al low-quali y news si es ha h i ed on alse in o ma ion, ake
15 Fo ins ance, I began wi h gene al key ph ases such as “Nepali peace p ocess,” “India’s in ol emen in
Nepal’s pos -con lic ansi ion,” “India–Nepal ela ions,” and “2015 Nepal blockade.” I also used e y speci ic
ph ases such as “pa icipan s o he 12-Poin -Unde s anding,” “India in he Ka awal case,” and “Jayshanka ’s
Nepal isi .”
34
news, and an exagge a ed and sensa ional ca e ing o conspi acy heo ies.
To a oid collec ing misleading in o ma ion o ‘dis o ed’ ac s, I ook ou s eps.
Fi s , I ensu ed ha all he online media sou ces I used we e egis e ed wi h he
Depa men o In o ma ion, as manda ed by Nepal's media law. Fo p in and
online media, I con i med ha hey had ecei ed a op anking om he P ess
Council Nepal, an au onomous media egula o y body es ablished by he
Go e nmen o Nepal. Second, I d ew on my expe ience o consuming Nepali media
o o e wo decades. Using pu posi e sampling, I selec ed ma e ials ha we e
deemed ela i ely mo e independen and widely us ed. Thi d, when I encoun e ed
highly con o e sial, pa isan, and opiniona ed con en , I examined i mo e closely
and conside ed al e na i e pe spec i es. Fou h, whene e I came ac oss ac s (such
as da es, names, o his o ical e en s), I c oss-checked hem wi h eliable sou ces
and made a since e e o o e i y hei accu acy.
By ollowing he p ocedu es ou lined abo e, I collec ed 105 pieces o ex . The
da a included opinion pieces, in e iews wi h key in o man s conduc ed by
epo e s and jou nalis s, opinion and news pieces, and se e al in-dep h epo ing
wo ks. The ma e ials ga he ed we e hen con e ed in o PDF o ma , and digi al
copies we e sa ed o analysis. Media ma e ials we e collec ed in wo phases, in
2018 and 2020. In bo h cases, a sepa a e documen was used o eco d ele an
me ada a, including he i le, publica ion da e, au ho names, and URLs. The leng h
o accumula ed media ex was 750 pages in o al. The pieces collec ed anged om
2009 o 2019, e en hough mos o he ex s we e om 2015 o 2018.16
2.2.6 Speeches and Video Talks
A small bu impo an da a componen includes ideo speeches and ideo
in e iews o some o my key in o man s. These ideos we e ga he ed using he
snowball sampling me hod. I ound hem e e enced o e e ed o in he a icles I
ead, o hey we e ecommended du ing he key in o man in e iews I conduc ed
ea lie . In his ca ego y, I used 12 ideos ( i e speeches, i e media in e iews, one
con e ence p esen a ion, and one ideo commen a y/documen a y). The leng h o
he ideos o alled 360.1 minu es (i.e. 6 hou s). All wel e ideos we e accessed on
he ideo-sha ing si e YouTube (see Appendix 1).
This s a egy was especially e ec i e in cap u ing he iewpoin s o impo an
bu ha d- o- each key in o man s. Fo ins ance, my a emp o mee Pushpa Kamal
Dahal ‘P achanda’, he ounding chai man o he CPN (Maois s) and he
Commande -in-Chie o he People's Libe a ion A my, was unsuccess ul. Howe e ,
I ound a leng hy speech in which he discussed he ea ly days o he Maois
insu gency, de ailing how he mo emen slowly gained bo h domes ic and
in e na ional a en ion. He explained how he pa y o med seemingly odd
alliances, no always ou o cama ade ie, bu also o ac ical and s a egic easons
o build s eng h and exe poli ical powe . In he same speech, he openly alked
abou India's ole in Nepal's peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion. Undoub edly,
his speech became an impo an piece o da a o his esea ch.
Simila ly, G. P. Koi ala, who had success ully led he 2006 people’s mo emen
16 The e a e se e al easons o his. Fi s , many Nepali media ou le s only s a ed o a chi e hei media
con en in ecen yea s. Second, he numbe o media ou le s o e ing digi al o online con en was
compa a i ely low du ing he ini ial yea s co e ed in his s udy. Thi d, many online news po als ha o e
ib an discussion on he opic o his s udy we e es ablished only du ing he la e yea s o he las decade.
Fou h, a e he 2015 economic blockade, discussions on India's in luence in Nepal in ensi ied a an
unp eceden ed scale. Hence, pieces om he pos -blockade yea s domina ed he da a.
35
(Jana Andolan II), was he mos in luen ial igu e in he peace p ocess and poli ical
ansi ion saga. He would ha e unques ionably been an ideal key in o man o his
esea ch. M Koi ala, howe e , passed away in 2010, yea s be o e his s udy began.
I in e iewed his wo close poli ical aides, his daugh e Suja a Koi ala and nephew
Shekha Koi ala, and hei inpu was impo an in unde s anding M Koi ala’s
decisions and poli ical choices. In addi ion, I also came ac oss a 51-minu e ideo
in e iew conduc ed in 2007 by he BBC (Nepali) Sajha Sawal p og amme, in which
M Koi ala was asked se e al ques ions ela ed o Nepal’s peace p ocess and
poli ical ansi ion. E en hough I could no in e iew M Koi ala mysel ,
inco po a ing ha ideo in o his s udy helped me unde s and his pe spec i es and
opinions and o e ed some impo an insigh s in o he poli ical p ocesses he had
led.
In addi ion, I was unsuccess ul in in e iewing he o me King, Gyanend a
Shah, as I could no loca e a communica ion channel h ough which o deli e my
in e iew eques o him. A e being s ipped o his oyal s a us, he led a
su p isingly p i a e li e, making only occasional and minimal media appea ances.
Al hough I was no able o in e iew him mysel , I ound and included a a e
ele ision in e iew he ga e in July 2012 o Nepal’s News24 TV. In he in e iew,
among o he hings, he o me King claimed ha he Se en Pa y Alliance had
ag eed o keep he cons i u ional mona chy in ac as Jana Andolan II peaked in
2006. This piece o in o ma ion was di icul , i no impossible, o me o ge om
elsewhe e.
O he speeches and in e iews included in he s udy se e a simila pu pose.
Al hough I did no pe sonally conduc hese in e iews o lis en o he speeches
i s hand, hei inclusion in he s udy was c ucial in add essing he esea ch
ques ions. They o e aluable insigh s and g ea ly enhance he o e all dep h o
analysis. U ilising hese ex e nally sou ced speeches and in e iew da a con ibu es
signi ican ly o he obus ness o his s udy and ensu es a ho ough explo a ion o
he esea ch objec i es.
2.2.7 Media Sou ces as Resea ch Da a: Uses and Implica ions
Using media sou ces as da a in esea ch comes wi h se e al ca ea s and
conside a ions. Media ou le s o en ha e hei own biases, which can in luence he
in o ma ion hey p esen . They can, delibe a ely o acciden ally, mould he s o y
hey a e p esen ing by injec ing hei iews, pe spec i es, and p ejudices.
The Nepali media houses whose media ma e ials I ha e used as da a in his
s udy ha e o en been ocal abou hei guiding p inciples and poli ical posi ions.
Fo ins ance, nea ly all majo mains eam media ou le s in Nepal openly c i icised
bo h King Gyanend a’s di ec ule and he Maois a med insu gency. They ac i ely
pa icipa ed in Jana Andolan II, which ul ima ely ended King Gyanend a’s di ec
ule, and b ough he Maois s o peace ul mains eam poli ics. In o he wo ds,
du ing Nepal’s peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion, he media was no me ely a
collec ion o passi e epo e s; ins ead, i consis ed o ac i e pa icipan s who
played a c ucial ole in guiding Nepal owa ds a new poli ical di ec ion. Nepali
mains eam media backed and p omo ed wha is o en e e ed o as p og essi e
agendas, including libe al democ acy, he ule o law, human igh s, and
non iolence. As he agenda-se ing heo y has highligh ed, media s uc u es do
indeed play an ac i e ole in c a ing, moulding, and s ee ing he public agenda (see,
o ins ance, McCombs 2005, Towne & Muñoz 2020), which was indeed he case
in Nepal.
36
Big media houses o en ha e co po a e in e es s ha inhe en ly in luence how
hey epo —o choose no o epo —on speci ic issues and e en s. As Laza idou &
K es el (2016) a gue, media houses end o in en ionally p omo e some s o ies
while gi ing li le o no space o o he s. These alues, choices, agendas, and
in e es s a e o en e lec ed in hei wo ks and he issues hey co e o ail o co e .
While his limi a ion is also inhe en in he da a I ha e accumula ed, he ise o
independen and jou nalis -owned digi al media pla o ms (such as Se opa i,
Ra opa i, Nepalli e, and Lokaan a in his con ex ) is changing his dynamic.
I is also c ucial o add ess limi a ions conce ning accu acy and eliabili y. Fo
ins ance, no all media ou le s p io i ise ac -checking o accu acy. Jou nalis s o en
ely on human sou ces o in o ma ion and may no always ha e he ools o con i m
he e aci y o he in o ma ion hey ecei e. Time and esou ce cons ain s can also
compel hem o educe in es iga i e e o s o depend on PR (public ela ions)
p o essionals and o he pa ies as in o ma ion sou ces (Gandy 1982, Hallin 2005).
As Godle e al. (2020: 218) explain:
Human sou ces pose knowledge- ela ed p oblems o jou nalis s: jou nalis s can ne e
en e an eyewi ness’s head, hey canno always (and can ne e wi h ce ain y) gauge a
whis le-blowe ’s in en ions o since i y, hey canno challenge a scien is ’s claims like he
pee , and hey migh no ha e he p o essional leeway o e i y e e y single claim by a
poli ician o a spokespe son.
Simila ly, media epo s also end o ha e empo al and spa ial limi a ions. In his
case, media co e age migh a y empo ally and spa ially, ocusing on ce ain
e en s o egions while neglec ing o he s. E en he mos ca e ul jou nalis s may
po ay a pa ial and o en biased ep esen a ion o la ge, i egula , and impo an
e en s (Woolley 2000: 171). This can ul ima ely c ea e a skewed unde s anding o
b oade ends o eali ies. Media epo s do no always p o ide he ull con ex o
dep h essen ial o igo ous esea ch. In addi ion, o e simpli ica ion o e en s o
opics can be a p oblem, leading o an incomple e ep esen a ion o subjec s
equi ing in-dep h po ayal.
S a egies such as c oss- e i ying in o ma ion om mul iple sou ces,
conside ing biases inhe en in media con en , and iangula ing indings using
di e se da a se s a e some o he s a egies ha esea che s ha e used o mi iga e
he limi a ions associa ed wi h using media sou ces in esea ch (see, o ins ance,
Woolley 2000, Hill e al. 1997). As is e iden in his chap e , I ha e also used c oss-
e i ica ion, da a iangula ion, ho ough acknowledgemen o po en ial biases, and
diligen a en ion o he quali y o da a sou ces as s a egies o dealing wi h
limi a ions inhe en in media sou ces used in his s udy.
Despi e some o he limi a ions discussed, he media ma e ials I used p o ided
excellen insigh s and p o ed o be ema kable da a sou ces o answe he esea ch
ques ions. Diploma ic ensions o en un old behind closed doo s, bu i was
p ima ily he media ha ook on he ask o un a elling hese ensions and
illus a ing he s ained and escala ing India–Nepal ela ions in he yea s ollowing
he 2006 peace deal. In o he wo ds, media ou le s equen ly se ed as he main
pla o ms on which discussions and deba es abou Indian mic omanagemen in he
pos -con lic con ex we e openly discussed and deba ed om a ious pe spec i es.
2.2.8 The In e ne as a Da a Des ina ion
As is al eady clea , I used he In e ne o accumula e some o he da a used in his
esea ch. The use o he In e ne as a sou ce o in o ma ion o as a pla o m o da a
37
accumula ion has se e al implica ions, bo h posi i e and nega i e. As o he
schola s ha e also poin ed ou , In e ne -based esea ch o e s ample oppo uni ies,
pa icula ly o a s udy o his ype. In e ne -based esea ch is aluable o
in es iga ing in e p e i e ames wi hin a limi ed ime ame17 (Baumga en &
G auel 2009: 116). I allows o esea ch in a na u alis ic se ing wi hou he
in e e ence o an in usi e esea che (Nosek e al. 2002: 174) and helps each
popula ions ha a e di icul o each (Du y 2002: 87, Hash & Spence 2009).
As a as his s udy is conce ned, one o he ema kable bene i s o he In e ne
was ha i o e ed ex emely aluable da a om di e se sou ces. Fo ins ance, I
used newspape a chi es and ideo ma e ials om se e al sou ces and om a
pe iod spanning many yea s. Had hese ma e ials no been on he In e ne , da a
accumula ion om such di e se sou ces would ha e been long, cumbe some, and
expensi e. This s aigh o wa d accessibili y allowed me o explo e a ious
pe spec i es and ga he da a quickly and e icien ly. By accumula ing da a om he
In e ne , I could include he pe spec i es o people who we e una ailable o
inaccessible o an in e iew. In addi ion, I also equen ly used a ious sou ces
a ailable on he In e ne o ally and e i y he ac ual in o ma ion ha he key
in o man s p o ided du ing he in e iews.
As Aski as & Zimme mann (2015) ha e a gued, he In e ne can be a g ea ool
o esea che s, pa icula ly as a sou ce o da a ad ancemen . This was he case in
his s udy as well. While I did accumula e a signi ican po ion o p ima y da a om
he key in o man in e iews, he da a ob ained om he In e ne helped me
b oaden my pe spec i es. This also suppo ed my analysis and a gumen a ion. This
was hen ul ima ely ins umen al in add essing he esea ch ques ions. As o he s
ha e also no ed (see, o ins ance, Adai e al. 2006: 545, Alessi & Ma in 2010:
128), da a ob ained om In e ne sou ces, pa icula ly i s -pe son na a i es, can
p o ide ich and in-dep h pe spec i es and a e excellen quali a i e da a sou ces. I
also had a simila expe ience conduc ing his s udy. Some pe sonal na a i es and
pieces o in es iga i e epo ing ha I inco po a ed as my da a in his s udy
p o ided in-dep h insigh s ha we e immensely aluable in add essing he esea ch
ques ions.
In e ne -based da a accumula ion p ac ice has a ew sho comings and
limi a ions, some o which I also expe ienced. As Deacon (2007: 14) has a gued, he
use o compu e ised sea ch engines in da a collec ion is no only con enien bu
also help ul in loca ing and iden i ying deeply bu ied in o ma ion, o ins ance, in
an in-dep h a icle. This was mos ly ue in my case, oo. Howe e , some keywo ds
gene a ed ex ensi e da a ha we e i ually impossible o p ocess. In such cases,
na owing down and making he keywo ds mo e speci ic o using a es ic i e
sea ch was help ul. Simila ly, only keywo d ma ching some imes did no p oduce
any use ul con en . In o he wo ds, he e we e se e al cases o alse posi i es. On
occasions, loca ing he con ex o sea ched con en also posed a challenge. News
a icles and opinion pieces a e p oduced in a pa icula con ex and o espond o
ce ain socio-poli ical de elopmen s. Unde s anding hose con ex s and
complexi ies was in i sel a challenging ask.
Ka lsson & Sjø aag (2016) a gue ha since In e ne -based esea ch is a
ela i ely new p ac ice, old and es ablished me hods migh no be su icien o
s udying and analysing digi al media con en . The e is a need o de elop new
17 As is ypical wi h in e p e i e aming, my analysis o he complex and mul i ace ed India–Nepal
ela ions e ol es a ound poli ical aspec s, whe eas o he aspec s o India–Nepal ela ions, such as cul u al
and linguis ic, ha e no been highligh ed.
38
common s anda ds and p o ocols o add ess inhe en limi a ions. These
limi a ions, howe e , do no mean ha ‘web esea che s should be allowed o ha e
lax s anda ds’ (He ing 2010: 246). In ac , hey ‘need o hold hemsel es o high
s anda ds o concep ual cla i y, sys ema ici y o sampling and da a analysis, and
awa eness o limi a ions in in e p e ing hei esul s’ (p. 246). Acco ding o Nosek
e al. (2002: 175):
The challenges o he In e ne should no de e in es iga o s om aking ad an age o his
powe ul medium o disco e y and educa ion. Ye he esponsibili y o conduc ing
esea ch ha mee s he highes s anda ds o e hical ea men and ad ances science is i s
and o emos he esponsibili y o scien is s hemsel es.
Deacon (2007: 23) ecommends a wide ange o measu es o imp o ing he
eliabili y o an analysis cen ed a ound digi al sea ches, and I also ook some o
hose measu es. Fo ins ance, I checked he accumula ed da a o duplica ed i ems
and alse posi i es and ca e ully scanned he i les and he ime span selec ed. In
addi ion, as I ha e al eady explained, da a iangula ion is one o he s a egies
esea che s commonly use o compensa e o sho comings in a pa icula da a
collec ion me hod. I also adop ed ha s a egy in his esea ch. As a esul , he
In e ne -sou ced da a is used in andem wi h i s hand key in o man in e iews,
and his s a egy no only ensu ed da a a iance, bu also helped bols e da a
analysis and he s udy’s eliabili y.
2.3 Da a Analysis
Resea che s use a ious analy ical app oaches and me hods o analyse quali a i e
da a. In case s udy esea ch, an analy ical s a egy aims o link case s udy da a o
‘some concep s o in e es ’ and hen use hose concep s o achie e a sense o
di ec ion in he p ocess o da a analysis (Yin 2003).
Fo dealing wi h quali a i e da a and cons uc ing an analy ical amewo k, Yin
(2003: 109–139) p esen s ou s a egies: 1. Relying on heo e ical p oposi ions
(i.e., cons uc ing an analy ical amewo k based on heo e ical an age poin s used
in he s udy), 2. The induc i e s a egy (i.e., aking he ‘g ound up’ app oach o
analysis), 3. De eloping case desc ip ions (especially when concep s and ca ego ies
canno be de eloped om he da a), and 4. Examining i al (plausible)
explana ions. As an analy ical s a egy, his s udy adop s he induc i e app oach
based on g ounded heo y.18 The analy ical amewo k also d aws inspi a ion om
McC acken's (1988) ecommenda ions o analysing long quali a i e in e iews.19
Yin (2018: 278) a gues ha a esea che can de elop hei own analy ical
s a egy based on he esea ch ques ions and he na u e o he da a. None heless,
Yin ecommends s a ing wi h esea ch ques ions and no wi h da a. The aim, he
a gues, is o ‘play wi h he da a’ and look o pa e ns, insigh s, o concep s ha
seem p omising. Schmid (2004: 253) also encou ages esea che s o de elop hei
own app op ia e modes o analysis and a gues ha ‘ he analy ical echniques ha
a e selec ed o semi-s uc u ed in e iews wi hin he amewo k o an
18 G ounded heo y is a me hodology de eloped by Glase & S auss (1967) and is p ima ily used o building
heo e ical cons uc s om da a.
19 McC acken (1988) p oposed i e s ages o analysis o analysing long quali a i e in e iews: 1) ea each
da a i em independen o o he i ems, 2) de elop obse a ions by hemsel es hen align wi h o he indings and
hen pe li e a u e e iew, 3) examine connec ions be ween second-le el obse a ion, conside ing li e a u e
and cul u e e iew, 4) sc u inise his collec i e o m o de e mine in e - heme consis ency and con adic ion,
and 5) use pa e ns and heme displayed ac oss indings in o a inal o m o analysis.
39
in es iga ion will depend on he goals, he ques ions and he me hodological
app oach’.
Pa icula ly in quali a i e s udies, he iming o da a analysis is also impo an .
The e is no consensus among schola s on when da a analysis should begin. Some
a gue ha da a analysis should begin only a e all da a is collec ed, ensu ing he
esea che can assess he amoun and quali y o he da a. O he s belie e ha da a
analysis and da a collec ion can occu simul aneously (see, o ins ance, Ha ley
1994).
Agains his backd op, I adop ed a middle-way app oach. While he inal,
comp ehensi e da a analysis began many mon hs a e he da a collec ion, a
'p elimina y analysis' ook place al eady du ing he da a collec ion s age. When
collec ing da a om he key in o man in e iews and la e om he In e ne , I
w o e ield no es and e lexi e ema ks, which aided he inal analysis. In he
g ounded heo y adi ion, he use o no es and memos has long been ad oca ed
(Co bin & S auss 2007) as hey can p o ide clues, ideas, hin s, and sugges ions
ha a e use ul o concep ualising da a in he analysis s age (Lempe 2011).
Analy ic aids, such as memos and ield no es, no only enhance analysis, bu also
con ibu e o ensu ing ha he inal coded p oduc is bo h alid and eliable, o , in
o he wo ds, c edible and con i mable (Guba & Lincoln 1989).
2.3.1 Con en Analysis
As Dey (1993: 31) pu s i , he esea che ’s aim in quali a i e da a analysis should be
o desc ibe di e en phenomena, classi y hem, and obse e how concep s
in e connec . While he analy ical ab ic o his s udy is based on g ounded heo y,
he da a we e analysed using he quali a i e con en analysis me hod. Con en
analysis o e s ools and echniques o sys ema ic ex analysis and is a widely
popula me hod o da a analysis ha has been in p ac ice since he 18 h cen u y.20
K ippendo (1969: 103) de ines con en analysis as he ‘use o eplicable and alid
me hod o making speci ic in e ences om ex o o he s a es o p ope ies o i s
sou ce’. In he wo ds o May ing (2000), con en analysis is an app oach o
empi ical, me hodological, con olled analysis o ex s wi hin hei con ex o
communica ion, ollowing s ep-by-s ep models and analy ical ules and wi hou
elying on eckless quan i ica ion. Con en analysis is ‘ he longes es ablished
me hod o ex analysis among he se o empi ical me hods o social in es iga ion’
(Ti sche e al. 2000: 55). Quali a i e con en analysis in ol es sea ching o
unde lying hemes in he da a being analysed and is p esumably he mos p e alen
app oach o he quali a i e analysis o documen s (B yman 2017).
B oadly speaking, con en analysis is o wo ypes: Quan i a i e con en analysis
and quali a i e con en analysis. Quan i a i e con en analysis elies on me hods
such as equency coun s and objec i e analysis o coded equencies (C acaue
1952), whe eas in quali a i e con en analysis, pa e ns a e p io i ised. Quali a i e
con en analysis is gene ally induc i e and begins wi h open esea ch ques ions.
Thus, i is no so much abou es ing a hypo hesis (Whi e & Ma sh 2006). While
some ha e aised conce ns abou he quali a i e con en analysis me hod, no ing i s
po en ial o imp essionism and he need o g ea e sys ema ic igou
(K ippendo 2018), i emains a aluable and insigh ul app oach o da a analysis.
This me hod enables ich and nuanced in e p e a ions o complex da a, enhances
20 In he beginning, he con en analysis me hod was mainly used o analyse quan i a i e da a, bu since he
1950s, i has been used o analyse bo h quan i a i e and quali a i e da a.
46
how I apply his knowledge in academic and p o essional se ings, will hold
signi icance. My dedica ion o emb acing e hical p ac ices will guide me owa ds
making esponsible choices now and in he u u e.
2.5 Resea che Posi ionali y
Pa icula ly in his ype o esea ch, i is essen ial o ecognise how my own
backg ound and biog aphy in luenced my wo k. Simila ly, i is impo an o be open
and hones abou how my backg ound has shaped and in luenced my choices and
ac ions, he ques ions I asked and possibly a oided, and he in e p e a ions I ha e
p esen ed in his hesis. My posi ionali y also in luenced he le el o access I had o
my key in o man s and he esponses I ecei ed om hem.
To help he eade unde s and my pe spec i e and he s ance I ha e aken in
his s udy, i is impo an o co e he ollowing elemen s: my backg ound, he
easons behind my pu sui o a doc o al esea ch p ojec , my insigh s as a
esea che om Nepal, and he oppo uni ies and challenges I encoun e ed du ing
my ieldwo k in Nepal.
I was bo n and aised in Nepal, shaped by he Nepali cul u e and iden i y, bu
also exposed o ce ain poli ical na a i es. My pa en s we e membe s o a le is
poli ical pa y, and I ha e clea memo ies o poli ics being a egula opic o
discussion a home. I emembe my a he discussing India’s economic blockade on
Nepal in he ea ly 1990s. Tha was how, a he ende age o i e, I was i s
in oduced o he subjec o India’s in luence in Nepal. I la e ealised ha India
was pa o he pic u e whene e he e was a poli ically signi ican e en o a
massi e scale in Nepal—a oyal massac e, an a med insu gency, a people’s
mo emen , o a peace deal.
As he Maois insu gency was a i s peak in Nepal, I g adua ed om high school
and mo ed o he capi al ci y o s udy u he . As he con lic became inc easingly
iolen , my en i e amily was displaced om ou ances al illage. E en hough my
pa en s we e le -leaning, hey did no subsc ibe o he Maois s’ adical ideology,
and as a esul , he ebels o en a ge ed hem. When I was s udying in he capi al
ci y, Nepal’s poli ical landscape wen h ough a d as ic makeo e . A massi e
people's mo emen in 2006, in which I also pa icipa ed, o e h ew King
Gyanend a’s di ec ule. This opened a enues o he Maois s o end he a med
insu gency h ough a nego ia ed se lemen and join peace ul mains eam poli ics.
This was he ime my poli ical consciousness began o mould and e ol e, and I
s a ed o che ish he ideals o democ acy, eedom o speech, human igh s, he
ule o law, and good go e nance. I also began o see he Maois s no as a e o is
o ganisa ion—as he Nepali s a e had o en po ayed hem unde he King’s di ec
ule—bu as a poli ical o ce igh ing o b ing abou posi i e change in Nepal. My
iew o he Maois s as agen s o change, despi e hei laws, limi a ions and wa ime
a oci ies, is amply e lec ed in he analysis and in e p e a ions p esen ed in his
hesis.
I le Nepal in la e 2007 o s udy o a deg ee p og amme in social se ices a a
uni e si y o applied sciences in Finland. I hen comple ed a mas e ’s deg ee in
social sciences om he Uni e si y o Helsinki in 2014. Th oughou hese yea s, I
ha e ac i ely ollowed poli ical de elopmen s in Nepal. Fo my mas e ’s hesis, I
analysed Sou h Sudan’s pos -con lic peace policies, which igge ed my in e es in
he pos -con lic issues o my own coun y. Fo my PhD, my ini ial idea was o s udy
India’s in ol emen in Nepal’s peace p ocess as a case s udy o Sou h–Sou h
Coope a ion. Howe e , as I was p epa ing my PhD esea ch plan in 2015, India
47
openly in e ened in Nepal’s cons i u ion-making p ocess, which was s ongly
esis ed by Nepali poli ical ac o s (see Chap e 6).
An en aged India hen imposed an economic blockade on Nepal, c ea ing a
humani a ian ca as ophe in he coun y. In pa icula , his inciden mo i a ed me
o e ise my esea ch plan and ake a mo e c i ical look a India–Nepal ela ions.
When I s a ed eading mo e abou he subjec , I gained a be e unde s anding o
he umul uous ela ionship be ween he wo coun ies. In he la e 2000s, as a
young man, I had unde s ood ha India played a posi i e ole in ending he Maois
a med insu gency in Nepal. Howe e , I was unawa e o he inhe en complexi ies,
geopoli ical and economic in e es s, and o he sub le nuances in ol ed in India’s
engagemen in Nepal. As I explo ed India–Nepal ela ions mo e c i ically, hemes
such as his o ical dependency, mic omanagemen , esou ce in e es s, and
economic and poli ical subjuga ion began o eme ge. This explo a ion and
unde s anding ha e signi ican ly shaped my hinking and he analysis p esen ed in
his hesis.
Though I ha e li ed ou side Nepal o o e se en een yea s, I emain a Nepali
ci izen and conside Nepal my home. The e a e bo h ad an ages and disad an ages
o esea ching he coun y o you o igin o one you know well (see, o ins ance, I e
1997: 83, Mandiyanike 2009: 70, Mckenzie 2019). In my case, as a esea che , one
o he bigges ad an ages was my abili y o speak he local language, i.e., Nepali. As
a na i e o he coun y I was esea ching, I possessed a deepe unde s anding o
c i ical ins i u ional and con ex ual ac o s, as well as he ne wo ks ha acili a ed
access o key in o man s. In addi ion, my p o iciency in Nepali and Hindi g an ed
me access o a as body o exis ing li e a u e on India–Nepal ela ions w i en in
hese languages.
Being a na i e Nepali also came wi h some disad an ages. Mandiyanike (2009:
70) discusses suspicions ega ding he pu i y o he esea che ’s in en ions, a
sen imen I also encoun e ed. Fo ins ance, wo in luen ial key in o man s on my
in e iew lis ag eed o mee wi h me and inqui ed abou he pu pose o my esea ch
and he esea ch ques ions. A e hea ing my b ie desc ip ion, hey declined o
pa icipa e in he in e iew. They said hey did no ha e enough ime o he
in e iew, e en hough hei sec e a ies had in o med me he e would be enough
ime o an in e iew. Since bo h key in o man s we e p ominen poli ical leade s,
one being a senio go e nmen minis e a he ime, hey may ha e declined he
in e iew due o he poli ically sensi i e na u e o he opic o because hey we e
suspicious o me as a esea che based in he Wes and conduc ing esea ch a a
Wes e n uni e si y.
Some key in o man s, howe e , openly p aised his s udy and hanked me o
my e o s. They o en men ioned ha he e had been many misunde s andings,
especially ega ding he 12-Poin Unde s anding, and i was commendable ha a
Nepali esea che had decided o explo e he opic mo e ho oughly. Some e en
commended me, saying ha I was dissemina ing he success s o y o he Nepali
peace p ocess o a global audience h ough his s udy.
I is incon es able ha my own iden i y and biog aphy, a leas o some ex en ,
a ec my analysis in his hesis. I am also awa e ha he ques ions I posed o he
esponden s we e o my cons uc ion, and o a ce ain deg ee, hey e lec my
in e es s and p edilec ions. As Ha ding (1986, 1987, 1991) poin s ou , as
esea che s, we should be awa e ha ou social and poli ical posi ions, a ilia ions,
and p edilec ions a ec how we conduc esea ch. Ou in e es s, he ques ions we
ask and e ain om asking, he ype o esea ch design and me hodology we adop ,
he heo e ical amewo k we use, he pa icipan s we choose o ail o choose, he
48
way we in e p e o analyse da a, all o his is sub ly linked o who we a e and wha
is ou social and poli ical loca ion (Guillemin & Gillam 2004: 274).
I ha e u ilised e lexi i y o add ess hese issues and as a me hod o c i ical
e lec ion. This is he case in bo h con ex s: he ype o knowledge p oduced and he
way how ha knowledge is gene a ed. In e lexi e esea ch, ‘ he esea che should
cons an ly ake s ock o hei ac ions and hei ole in he esea ch p ocess and
subjec hese o he same c i ical sc u iny as he es o hei da a’ (Mason 1996: 6).
In o he wo ds, a e lexi e esea che goes beyond jus epo ing he ‘ ac s’, and
engages in cons uc ing in e p e a ions (‘Wha do I know?’), and ques ions how
hose in e p e a ions we e o mula ed (‘How do I know wha I know?’) (He z 1997:
8). In he domain o esea ch e hics, p ac ising e lexi i y in ol es placing onesel
and one's p ac ices unde cons an sc u iny, and acknowledging e hical dilemmas
and he en i e p ocess o knowledge c ea ion (McG aw e al. 2000: 68). In his
con ex , e lexi i y is an ac i e and ongoing p ocess ha in luences all aspec s o
esea ch. As a esea che , I am no only awa e o his, bu ha e also applied
e lexi i y a e e y s age o his s udy.
2.6 Scope and Limi a ions o he S udy
This s udy has a de ini e scope and some limi a ions, which mus be acknowledged
and add essed. Fi s , as he i le o his hesis clea ly indica es, he main scope o
his s udy is he in es iga ion o India's engagemen in Nepal’s peace p ocess and
poli ical ansi ion, p ima ily be ween 2005 and 2017. This was he ime ame when
Nepal’s peace p ocess culmina ed, and he coun y go ou o a p o ac ed poli ical
ansi ion. My in es iga ion and analysis p ima ily ocus on he yea s men ioned
abo e. Howe e , whene e ele an and necessa y, I also e e o e en s ha
occu ed be o e o a e he selec ed ime ame.
Second, in his s udy, I adop ed a pa icula heo e ical app oach, and ha
na u ally shaped i s scope. The e a e nume ous ways o s udy peace p ocesses,
hi d-pa y engagemen s and in luences, o he complexi ies o mode n
in e na ional ela ions. This is also ue while s udying he ela ionship be ween
wo neighbou ing coun ies ha sha e much mo e han jus a common bo de .
Resea che s can selec om a ious heo e ical amewo ks and me hodological
pe spec i es o s udy hese phenomena. Among many op ions and combina ions, I
used a iangula heo e ical app oach (Chap e 3), which o ms he heo e ical
ounda ion o his s udy. The poin o depa u e o my heo e ical amewo k has
been heo e ical issues su ounding media ion and hi d-pa y engagemen ,
ollowed by ising powe models (Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion and sub-impe ialism),
and concep s d awn om wo ld-sys ems app oaches and dependency heo ies.
Thi d, e en hough heo e ical inpu s ha e been aken om a di e se ange o
ields, his s udy, a i s co e, emains wi hin he domain o global de elopmen
s udies. Peace and in e na ional ela ions esea ch a e dis inc ields on hei own,
bu can also be inco po a ed unde he in e disciplina y umb ella o global
de elopmen s udies. Mos o he heo e ical concep s I use h oughou his hesis,
such as dependency and sub-impe ialism, ha e been ex ensi ely used in he global
de elopmen schola ship. Media ion, along wi h pos -con lic peace and poli ical
issues, has also been examined h ough he lens o global de elopmen s udies.
Mo eo e , his s udy has a ew limi a ions ha need ho ough
acknowledgemen . Fi s , he subjec o his s udy—India’s in luence in Nepal du ing
he peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion yea s—is undoub edly complex. India, a
mili a y and economic gian and a sh ewd egional playe in Sou h Asia, has always
49
been in luen ial in Nepal. India’s in luence has been el in Nepal in majo poli ical
de elopmen s and uphea als, especially since he ea ly 1950s.28 Simila ly, Nepal
and India sha e a complex ela ionship ha has de eloped o e many gene a ions
and co e s many a eas. No se o heo ies o da a can ully cap u e he in icacies
and dep h o he as connec ion be ween hese wo coun ies. Tha ac is
undeniably one o his s udy's majo limi a ions. So, his s udy is no an exhaus i e
and all-encompassing examina ion o India–Nepal ela ions, bu a he a small s ep
owa ds unde s anding India’s in luence and ac ions in Nepal p ima ily du ing he
peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion yea s (i.e., be ween 2005 and 2017).
Second, he pe iod I chose o examine spans om 2005 o 2017, co e ing he
mos signi ican e en s o he peace p ocess and he pos -con lic poli ical ansi ion
ha ook place du ing hese yea s. Howe e , my ocus on his a he na ow
ime ame lea es ou some o he signi ican inciden s and de elopmen s ha
occu ed be o e his pe iod. Fo ins ance, India's ole du ing he Maois insu gency
in Nepal (1996–2005) dese es a ho ough e-e alua ion, as does i s nea ly h ee-
decade-long silen suppo o he Panchaya au ho i a ian egime in Nepal.
Whene e applicable, I do e e o his o ically ele an cases and inciden s;
howe e , such e e ences do no compensa e o an exhaus i e analysis. Hence, ha
becomes ye ano he limi a ion o his s udy.
Thi d, he key in o man s in e iewed o his s udy we e all Nepali ci izens. My
ini ial plan o include he ‘Indian side o he s o y’ by in e iewing Indian leade s
and diploma s was la e discon inued p ima ily due o logis ical cons ain s and my
in en ion o a oid a cumbe some esea ch design. The e o e, his s udy lacks a
ho ough ep esen a ion o he Indian pe spec i e. Simila ly, he seconda y da a
ha I ha e used—newspape a icles and ideos—we e mos ly w i en o p oduced
by Nepali na ionals. I ha e used wo ks o Indian schola s, oo, bu hei
ep esen a ion o e all is ma ginal.
Fou h, mos o he key in o man s I in e iewed we e public igu es, many o
hem poli ical eli es holding p ominen poli ical pos s. Despi e some pi alls, eli e
in e iewing is widely used in poli ical and peace esea ch. In sho , in e iewing
eli es can pose challenges o wo main easons. On one hand, eli es a e ‘less
accessible’ and, on he o he hand, ‘mo e conscious o hei own impo ance’
(Richa ds 1996: 200). In my eli e in e iews, i is possible ha he na a i es hey
p o ided may ha e been inaccu a e and in luenced by hei p ejudices o es ed
in e es s. Thei s a emen s migh ha e been shaped by hei desi e o p esen
hemsel es as ‘pa io ic’ leade s who oppose any o m o o eign meddling and
in e e ence in Nepal. While I ook s eps o add ess any po en ial impac om his,
mainly by e i ying hei s a emen s agains ac s om o he eliable sou ces, i was
impossible o con i m he au hen ici y o all hei claims.
Be o e conduc ing he ieldwo k, I was awa e o he sho comings inhe en in
eli e in e iewing. I unde s ood ha i is impo an o poli icians o sa egua d hei
public image and o e ain om di ulging sensi i e o con o e sial in o ma ion
ha migh pu hem in ouble. I a emp ed o add ess hese issues by using ips
and echniques ecommended by o he schola s engaged in eli e in e iewing (see,
o ins ance, Richa ds 1996, Be y 2002, Ha ey 2011). I included such echniques
28 Fo ins ance, in Feb ua y 1950, King T ibhu an, en aged by his powe less posi ion unde he Ranas, le
Nepal and sough e uge in India. A comp omise was eached be ween he King, he Rana ule s, and
ep esen a i es o he Nepali Cong ess, a poli ical pa y igh ing o democ acy in Nepal. The Delhi Ag eemen
was b oke ed by he hen-Indian P ime Minis e Jawaha lal Neh u. Since hen, India has been s eadily p esen
in almos all majo poli ical e en s and p ocesses in Nepal.
50
in he In e iew Guide (see Appendix 3), which I consis en ly used while conduc ing
he in e iews. One such echnique was o o e he esponden s comple e o pa ial
anonymi y, and ye ano he was o use da a iangula ion o imp o e consis ency
and eliabili y.
Fi h, as is ypical wi h eli e in e iewing (see, o ins ance, Richa ds 1996), my
in e iew sample o 18 key in o man s is ela i ely small. My ini ial lis o
esponden s included o e 40 key in o man s. Howe e , i was impossible o
in e iew e e yone on he lis o se e al easons. Some key in o man s igno ed my
eques o an in e iew, while o he s ag eed o mee , bu hen ound excuses o
a oid being in e iewed. They o en claimed o be oo busy o una ailable o a
leng hy discussion. I conduc ed mos o hese in e iews in he summe o 2017,
which was an elec ion pe iod in Nepal, and some key in o man s on my lis we e
ex emely busy wi h elec ion campaigns.
The e a e also limi a ions conce ning he use o seconda y da a. Since he
seconda y da a I used we e collec ed online om media sou ces, in e ms o
edi o ial policy and p ac ice, hei edi o ial bias is po en ially e lec ed in he da a I
used. Owne s o media ou le s, jou nalis s, edi o s, and e en blogge s can, ei he
in en ionally o unin en ionally, injec hei pe sonal iews, p ejudices, and
pe spec i es in o he s o ies hey p esen . They also ha e he powe o decide which
s o ies ecei e space o ai ime and which do no . They may choose o p omo e
ce ain s o ies while omi ing o he s (Laza idou & K es el 2016). Mo eo e , some
a icles and ideos ha could ha e been included as da a in his s udy a e missing
because no all o hem we e a ailable online, especially om he ea lie yea s o
he peace p ocess.
Finally, since his s udy p ima ily ocuses on Nepal’s peace p ocess and poli ical
ansi ion om 2005 o 2017, any gene alisa ions I make in la e chap e s a e based
solely on his case s udy. As all peace p ocesses and poli ical ansi ions a e unique,
my analy ical and heo e ical a gumen s in his hesis may no apply o necessa ily
ex apola e o o he scena ios. This is also he case because India's ole as a peace
media o / acili a o in Nepal is qui e dis inc and does no con o m o adi ional
no ions o media ion. Mo eo e , India’s in luence in Nepal has been long and
ex ensi e, which may ha e shaped how India posi ioned i sel as a ‘powe media o ’
(see Chap e 3) o help esol e he Maois a med insu gency in Nepal. In his
con ex , India’s ole may ha e di e ged om he es ablished no ms ypically
obse ed in media ion cases. As a esul , India's ole in Nepal as a 'con lic media o '
may di e om ypical media ion e o s in ol ing p o essional media o s,
media ion o ganisa ions, and ela i ely independen coun ies ha ha e li le o no
es ed in e es s in he coun ies ecei ing media ion.
2.7 Chap e Summa y: Connec ing Me hods o Theo y and Da a
This chap e p o ided a de ailed o e iew o he me hodological app oaches
adop ed in his hesis. I began by ou lining he on ological and epis emological
ounda ions ha unde pin he esea ch, hus c a ing a clea philosophical
amewo k o he s udy. The chap e hen de ailed he a ionale behind he
me hodological choices made and explained how hese align wi h he esea ch
objec i es and heo e ical amewo k p esen ed in Chap e 3.
A e ha , he da a collec ion p ocess was desc ibed in de ail, encompassing key
in o man in e iews and media ma e ials. C i ical esea ch conside a ions,
including alidi y, eliabili y, e hical conce ns, and he esea che 's posi ionali y,
we e also ho oughly discussed. Issues ela ed o eli e in e iewing, he use o media
51
con en in esea ch, ansla ion, and da a accumula ion om In e ne sou ces we e
add essed. I also discussed he use o quali a i e con en analysis as he p ima y
analy ical me hod applied o bo h in e iew ansc ip s and media ma e ials. This
choice was d i en by he na u e o he collec ed da a and he esea ch design.
O e all, his chap e p o ided a ho ough and anspa en accoun o he esea ch
me hodology, me hods, da a accumula ion s a egies, and e hical conside a ions
made in he esea ch p ocess.
52
3. Theo e ical F amewo k
‘The s ong do wha hey can, and he weak su e wha hey mus .’
-Thucydides, Melian Dialogue, 5 h cen u y B.C.
This chap e ou lines he heo e ical amewo k employed in his s udy. The
amewo k in eg a es mul iple heo e ical pe spec i es ha se e as a heo e ical
e e ence poin o in es iga ing India's engagemen in Nepal's peace p ocess and
poli ical ansi ion om 2005 o 2017 and na iga ing he complex and his o ically
umul uous ela ions be ween he wo coun ies. By in eg a ing con lic media ion
heo ies, ising powe beha iou models, and wo ld-sys ems app oaches, I aim o
c ea e a c i ical and comp ehensi e ounda ion o unde s anding India's
in ol emen in Nepal's peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion, as well as he
umul uous coexis ence be ween he wo coun ies. My cen al p emise in selec ing
hese di e se heo e ical s ands is based on he belie ha phenomena like
media ion, peace p ocesses, and poli ical ansi ions should no be s udied in
isola ion bu a he wi hin he con ex o global and egional powe ela ions and
b oade poli ical, geopoli ical, and economic p ocesses.
Con lic Media ion Theo ies: One o he ocal poin s o his s udy is India's
ole in he Maois -SPA 12-Poin Unde s anding signed in New Delhi on 22
No embe 2005. The 12-Poin Unde s anding was equi alen o a de ac o peace
ag eemen ha essen ially ske ched a oadmap o a nego ia ed se lemen o he
Maois a med insu gency and poli ical es uc u ing o pos -con lic Nepal. Gi en
he ambigui y su ounding India's ole in he 12-Poin Unde s anding and he
opaque na u e o i s in ol emen , his s udy examines India’s ole i s h ough he
lens o con lic media ion. Thus, he in es iga ion begins wi h India's medi a i e o
acili a i e ole in he Maois -SPA 12-Poin Unde s anding.
The i s heo e ical pilla , he e o e, e ol es a ound con lic media ion issues.
To his end, I d aw upon con lic media ion heo ies, ocusing on ou key aspec s:
he ini ia ion o media ion (Why a e some con lic s media ed while o he s a e no ?),
he iming o media ion (Wha poin in a con lic does media ion occu ?), media o
mo i a ion (Wha d i es ac o s o ake on media ing oles?), and powe media ion
(How does he in ol emen o egional powe s as media o s in luence he dynamics
and esolu ion o con lic s?). This also includes examining why some con lic s
ecei e ex ensi e media ion while o he s a e almos igno ed.
Mo eo e , i also in ol es in es iga ing he iming and mo i es behind
media o s' in ol emen . The e is a pa icula emphasis on how egional powe s,
ac ing as powe media o s, in luence he p og ession and esolu ion o con lic s. In
his s udy, his app oach is c ucial o unde s anding India's s a egic mo i a ions
and ac ions in he Nepali peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion.
Thus, I begin he i s sec ion o his chap e by in oducing heo e ical concep s
su ounding peace media ion li e a u e, emphasising ipeness heo y, which sheds
ligh on ‘ ipe’ momen s o con lic esolu ion. In he same sec ion, I in oduce
media ion as a con lic esolu ion ool and o e a b ie o e iew o he global
media ion scena io. In addi ion, I b ing in heo e ical concep s su ounding ‘powe
media ion’ and ‘pu e media ion’, and bo owing om wo ks o schola s such as
Saadia Tou al (Tou al 1975, 1987, 1992), I suppo he a gumen ha media ion
can be used as a o eign policy ool o se e speci ic o eign policy in e es s. I
53
conclude he i s sec ion by a guing ha e en hough ‘powe media o s’ migh
success ully o ge peace ag eemen s, hei possible es ed in e es s and long- e m
pos -peace deal ac i i ies need c i ical sc u iny.
Rising Powe s, Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion, and Sub-impe ialism:
This s udy ini ially aimed o analyse India’s in ol emen in Nepal p ima ily h ough
he lens o Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion (SSC). While his plan was no abandoned
al oge he , he esea ch expands o conside India no jus as a coun y in he Global
Sou h, bu also as a ising powe wi h signi ican economic and poli ical ambi ions.
Theo e ically, his in ol es examining how he so-called ise o such powe s, such
as India, may simul aneously challenge Wes e n hegemony in some ins ances and
accele a e he expansion o hei hegemonic aspi a ions. The e o e, h oughou his
hesis, India is examined no only as Nepal's powe ul neighbou , bu also as a ising
powe wi h a mul i ude o o eign policy mo i es and global poli ical and economic
agendas.
A e discussing he o igins o Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion (SSC) and connec ing
hem o he de eloping wo ld's long-s anding hope o c ea ing a New In e na ional
Economic O de , I c i ically examine how he con adic o y beha iou o ising
powe s has h ea ened he p ospec s and p omises o an emancipa o y SSC. To
po ay a clea e pic u e o con empo a y SSC, I e alua e bo h sides o he
a gumen , looking a he iewpoin s o and agains i . As will be appa en in my
discussion, while some con inue o see a emendous ‘emancipa o y’ po en ial in
SSC, o he s iew i me ely as a way o pe pe ua ing and c ea ing new o ms o
inequali y and dependency. The e is g owing conce n ha SSC is becoming
inc easingly c ippled and o e shadowed by he sub-impe ialis endencies o he
so-called ising powe s in he Global Sou h. Despi e i s p ospec s and pi alls, my
cen al a gumen , howe e , is ha SSC should no be ega ded as an isola ed
heo e ical cons uc o as a no el mechanism ha will 'libe a e' he de eloping
wo ld. Ra he , i should be e alua ed c i ically on a case-by-case basis wi hin he
b oade con ex o he cu en ola ile in e na ional o de and he neolibe al
poli ical and economic en i onmen . Addi ionally, he ocus should be no only on
Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion, bu also on Sou h–Sou h con lic .
Wo ld-Sys ems and Dependency Theo ies: In he inal sec ion o his
chap e , I examine wo ld-sys em and dependency app oaches. In analysing India–
Nepal ela ions, I ha e chosen o emphasise wo ld-sys ems heo ies o e adi ional
in e na ional ela ions pa adigms such as ealism, libe alism, o cons uc i ism.
While adi ional in e na ional ela ions heo ies do o e aluable insigh s in o
in e s a e ela ions, wo ld-sys ems and dependency heo ies a e be e sui ed o a
long- e m his o ical iew. Wo ld-sys ems and dependency heo ies o e se e al
ad an ages o my analysis. Fi s , hey p o ide a long- e m his o ical pe spec i e
c ucial o unde s anding he long and umul uous India–Nepal ela ions. Second,
hey emphasise economic ela ionships and global di isions o labou , which is
pa icula ly ele an gi en India's ex ensi e economic in e es and in luence in
Nepal (see Chap e 8). Thi d, co e, semi-pe iphe y, and pe iphe y concep s
e ec i ely ame he India–Nepal ela ionship, wi h India occupying a semi-
pe iphe al posi ion, exe ing in luence o e Nepal as a pe iphe al s a e.
I conclude he chap e by a guing ha dependency and wo ld-sys ems
app oaches, while less p ominen in con empo a y academic discou se, s ill hold
ele ance. They a e use ul o analysing powe asymme ies be ween coun ies and
o si ua ing egional dynamics wi hin a global con ex . In he con ex o his s udy,
his aming enables a mo e comp ehensi e unde s anding o how India's ac ions
in Nepal connec o b oade global economic and poli ical s uc u es. Simila ly,
54
hei emphasis on (unde )de elopmen and dependency helps explain Nepal's
ch onic economic eliance on India and i s implica ions, among o he s, o Nepal’s
so e eign y and sel -de e mina ion. Finally, he in e disciplina y amewo k ha
wo ld sys ems and dependency heo ies p o ide is use ul o a mo e comp ehensi e
analysis o complex si ua ions, such as peace p ocesses and pos -con lic poli ical
ansi ions.
3.1 Analy ical Ad an ages o an In eg a ed App oach
Be o e mo ing on o he ac ual discussion o he heo e ical an age poin s adop ed,
i is use ul o b ie ly discuss he analy ical ad an ages o an in eg a ed app oach and
why such an app oach was essen ial in he i s place.
As al eady a gued abo e, he complex, mul i ace ed na u e o India's
in ol emen in Nepal's peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion canno be adequa ely
cap u ed by any single heo e ical lens. The e o e, a heo e ical in eg a ion was
essen ial. The co e analy ical con ibu ion o his hesis lies no in he simple
laye ing o hese ields, bu in hei ac i e in eg a ion.
• Peace/media ion Resea ch p o ides he ounda ional con ex . I o e s
he ocabula y and analy ical ools o unde s and he mechanics o
media ion, poli ical nego ia ion, pos -con lic poli ical ansi ions, and
ansi ional jus ice issues.
• C i ical IR in oduces he c ucial dimension o powe asymme y,
speci ically h ough he lens o sub-impe ialism. In o he wo ds, i allows he
analysis o mo e beyond a simplis ic iew o India as a neu al media o o
an ac o wi h i s own geopoli ical in e es s.
• Global De elopmen S udies, pa icula ly dependency and wo ld-
sys ems heo ies, o e a mac o pe spec i e, illumina ing he s uc u al and
economic unde pinnings o his powe ela ionship. They expose and help
elabo a e he mechanisms o unequal exchange and esou ce con ol ha
solidi y Nepal's subo dina e posi ion.
These ‘laye s’ a e no mean o emain as sepa a e, pa allel acks o analysis.
Ins ead, hey a e wo en oge he o c ea e a mo e obus , in ica e, and holis ic
explana o y model. The ue analy ical powe eme ges a he in e sec ion whe e
hese heo ies mee and in o m one ano he .
This in eg a ion allows me o explain, o example, ha India’s
‘mic omanagemen ’ is no me ely a diploma ic s a egy (an IR concep ) no simply
a o m o hi d-pa y media ion (a peace esea ch concep ). Ra he , i is a speci ic
mode o in e en ion whe e geopoli ical ambi ions, cha ac e is ic o sub-
impe ialism (C i ical IR), a e ope a ionalised h ough he di ec manipula ion o
pos -con lic mechanisms (Peace Resea ch), and a e sus ained by deep-sea ed
s uc u es o economic dependency (Global De elopmen S udies). I a gue ha
hese concep s a e no jus laye ed; hey a e causally in e linked.
Ul ima ely, his heo e ical in eg a ion culmina es in he de elopmen o he
hesis's cen al no el concep : ‘peace dependency.’ This e m is a di ec p oduc o
he syn hesis o he laye ed amewo ks. I desc ibes a s a e whe e he e y
a chi ec u e o a na ion's peace p ocess becomes con ingen upon he in e es s and
in luence o a sub-impe ial egional powe . ‘Peace dependency’ would be an
incomple e concep i iewed only h ough he lens o peace esea ch o dependency
heo y alone; i de i es i s explana o y o ce p ecisely om he abo e-men ioned
55
in eg a ion.
The e o e, while he hesis in oduces i s heo e ical ools in a laye ed ashion
o he sake o cla i y, i s cen al a gumen s and conclusions a e he p oduc o hei
syn hesis. This in eg a ed app oach is wha makes i possible o o e a
comp ehensi e c i ique o Sou h–Sou h ela ions ha accoun s o powe , poli ics,
and economics simul aneously. Then i p o ides a iche unde s anding o he case
s udy han any single discipline could o e alone.
3.2 Peace Media ion and Thi d-Pa y In ol emen
In peace and con lic s udies, media ion has o en be de ined as ‘a p ocess o con lic
managemen whe e he dispu an s seek he assis ance o , o accep an o e o help
om, an indi idual, g oup, s a e o o ganisa ion o se le hei con lic o esol e
hei di e ences wi hou eso ing o physical iolence o in oking he au ho i y o
he law’ (Be co i ch e al. 1991: 8). When ca ego ised acco ding o objec i es, he e
a e p ima ily wo ypes o media ion. One ocuses on sho - e m cease i e
ag eemen s, which a e ini ia ed wi h he ob ious aim o easing hos ili ies and
p e en ing he loss o li es, and he second ype ocuses on he long- e m goals o a
peace deal and b oade peace p ocesses (DeRouen & Be co i ch 2012: 67).
Media ion has been used o cen u ies o acili a e peace nego ia ions and ind
peace ul solu ions o con lic s. Fo ins ance, in mode n imes, he Uni ed Na ions
has been ac i e in a ious media ion p ocesses and con inues o consolida e i s
p esence in he in e na ional con lic media ion scene.29 Among o he s, he UN has
es ablished a sepa a e uni o media ion, he Media ion Suppo Uni . O he
mul ila e al o ganisa ions, such as he EU and he A ican Union, also ha e con lic
media ion p og ammes ha acili a e dialogue, media ion, nego ia ion, and pos -
nego ia ion peacebuilding wo k. Some non-go e nmen al o ganisa ions, such as
he CMI- Ma i Ah isaa i Peace Founda ion based in Finland o he Swiss Peace
Founda ion in Swi ze land, dedica e mos ac i i ies o peace media ion, acili a ion,
and nego ia ion wo k. S a es also p ac ise media ion as pa o o eign policy. Fo
decades, coun ies such as he Uni ed S a es, he Uni ed Kingdom, Russia, India,
and Sou h A ica ha e been in luen ial playe s in in e na ional media ion (see
Figu e 4). Apa om economic, diploma ic, and mili a y means, media ion has also
been used as a ool o o eign in e en ion.
The e is a g owing consensus among schola s ha media ion has, o e all, a
posi i e impac on con lic mi iga ion and esolu ion. E en in cases in which peace
acco ds a e no signed, media ion opens a enues o cease i es, and as a esul ,
cases o hos ili ies and casual ies decline and oppo uni ies o peace ag eemen s
inc ease, which ul ima ely pa e he way o a success ul con lic se lemen .
Re lec ing on he impo ance o media ion, Be co i ch (2007: 291) a gues ha :
Success may be achie ed i he pa ies in con lic eel empowe ed o eel ha hei conce ns
we e add essed espec ully. The e may be no success ul ou come (in any sense o he wo d),
bu he pa ies s ill eel hey ha e achie ed success in he p ocess. In he same way, he e
may be a p ocess o media ion ma ed by many p ocedu al disag eemen s and
dissa is ac ions, bu i may lead o a cessa ion o iolence and e en a o mal ag eemen .
The a ailabili y o media o s can also help ans o m in ac able con lic s and each
peace ag eemen s (Be co i ch 2004). Media o s b ing unique skills and
29 Fo mo e on UN media ion, peacekeeping, and p e en i e diplomacy ini ia i es, see Doyle & Sambanis
(2006).
62
media ion a emp s, whe eas ‘ ep esen a i es o in e na ional, egional, o non-
go e nmen al o ganisa ions, indi iduals, and small and dis an s a es, a e classi ied
as pu e media o s’ (S ensson 2007: 230). Pu e media o s o en lack he powe o
in luence si ua ions ou side he nego ia ion si ua ion and limi hemsel es o
s a egies such as ‘ easoning, un o ced pe suasion, he con ol o in o ma ion and
he gene a ion o al e na i es’ (Ha is & Reilly 1998: 109). Powe media o s,
howe e , can exe cise a ange o o he s a egies and op ions, such as ‘incen i es
and punishmen s’ o ‘pe suade he pa ies o obey’, o adop lexibili y, and accep
a comp omise (Ha is & Reilly 1998: 109).
Saadia Tou al (1992, 2003) is a key ad oca e o he idea ha media ion se es
as a o eign policy ool, pa icula ly when used by majo powe s. By si ua ing
media ion wi hin a ealis s uc u e o in e na ional ela ions, he a gues ha
powe ul ac o s in he in e na ional sys em migh use media ion as a o eign policy
ins umen o p omo e hei sel -in e es o u he hei goals. In his iew, big
powe s can use media ion as a ool o se e hei de ensi e as well as expansionis
in e es s (Tou al 1992: 232–33). He u he a gues:
Because o hei ex ensi e global in ol emen s, many con lic s in a ious pa s o he globe
a e pe cei ed by he supe powe s as a ec ing hei in e es s. Thus, hey will o en be
mo i a ed o in e ene, and may choose media ion as a sui able ins umen o in e en ion.
Thei poli ical in luence, and hei as ma e ial capabili ies, enable hem o apply s icks and
ca o s, and p o ide hem wi h impo an esou ces o engaging in media ion (p. 233).
This disc epancy in he in e es s o big powe s and hei i al ies leads o a si ua ion
whe eby con lic s in egions in which supe powe s do no compe e a e neglec ed.
Howe e , in e en ion and peacekeeping a emp s become inc easingly common in
a eas whe e supe powe in luence and i al y pe sis (Tou al 1992: 247). This
no ion helps explain he ‘o e -media ion’ and ‘unde -media ion’ pa e ns in
in e na ional con lic media ion (see G eig & Diehl 2012, S ensson & Onken 2015,
Lundg en & S ensson 2020).
Based on he heo e ical obse a ions made abo e, i is a gued ha he
in ol emen o hi d pa ies, especially egional powe s and supe powe s, in
media ion, nego ia ion and b oade peacebuilding p ocesses migh be una oidable,
ine i able o e en desi able in some cases. Howe e , media o s' mo i es and
possible es ed in e es s demand ca e ul and c i ical sc u iny. Pa icula ly, when
‘media ion se es as a means owa d achie ing ce ain p ima y o eign policy goals’
(Tou al 2003: 93), media ion’s a e shocks a e likely o ex end beyond a success ul
peace deal.
A key akeaway om his sec ion is ha media ion has been employed as a
o eign policy ool by majo powe s, and hey con inue o do so. While media ion
pe se is bene icial o con lic esolu ion, i has o he implica ions when used,
pa icula ly as a o eign policy ool. India, he ocus o his s udy, is a signi ican
powe wi h global ambi ions, and i has bo h o icially and uno icially engaged i sel
in diploma ic in e en ions and media ed con lic s, pa icula ly in he Sou h Asian
egion, o many yea s (see Figu e 4, Bane ji 2023). Analysing India's in ol emen
in Nepal h ough he lens o media ion esea ch sheds ligh on how majo powe s,
pa icula ly ising powe s om he Global Sou h, le e age media ion wi hin
b oade global and egional poli ical and economic con ex s.
63
Figu e 4 Diploma ic in e en ions in con lic s and equen in e ene s. I co e s 438 diploma ic
in e en ions in 68 con lic s, om 1945 o 1999. (Sou ce: Regan e al. 2009:140)
Media ion does no ake place in isola ion; i is deeply shaped by i s su ounding
con ex s. This highligh s he need o a b oade app oach o examining he
in e connec ions be ween media ion and o he in luencing ac o s. Fo ins ance, o
ully g asp India's ole in Nepal's con lic esolu ion, i is essen ial o look beyond
adi ional media ion esea ch. In he ollowing sec ions, I will do jus ha —mo e
beyond media ion and in oduce o he heo e ical pe spec i es ha help si ua e
India’s ole in Nepal’s peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion. Gi en hei sha ed
s a us as Global Sou h coun ies, I i s examine Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion as a
amewo k o unde s anding he ela ions be ween India and Nepal. I hen
in oduce o he c i ical heo e ical pe spec i es, such as sub-impe ialism and
dependency heo ies, as mo e sui able amewo ks o analysing he complex and
o en u bulen ela ionship be ween he wo coun ies. This app oach will help
cla i y India’s ole in Nepal’s peace and poli ical ansi ion and beyond.
64
3.4 Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion: An Emancipa o y Agenda and an
A enue o Exploi a ion?
The ini ial aim o his s udy was o analyse India's in ol emen in Nepal's peace
p ocess and poli ical ansi ion by using he heo e ical amewo k o Sou h–Sou h
Coope a ion (SSC). In o he wo ds, India’s in ol emen would be examined mainly
as an example o con empo a y Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion. As he esea ch
p og essed, he heo e ical amewo k was expanded o inco po a e mo e c i ical
heo e ical pe spec i es. Ne e heless, he SSC pe spec i e was also e ained due o
i s ele ance and pe asi e use in con empo a y academic discou ses, pa icula ly
in global de elopmen s udies, which I am a s uden o . In addi ion, i s inc easing
s a egic use by he so-called ising powe s o he Global Sou h also necessi a es he
c i ical in es iga ion and ho ough e-e alua ion o SSC.
T adi ionally en isioned as a p ac ice aimed a consolida ing solida i y among
coun ies o he Global Sou h and empowe ing hem h ough mu ual suppo , SSC
has o en been he alded o i s po en ial o os e coope a ion and de elopmen o
de eloping coun ies like Nepal. Howe e , he c i ical ques ion ega ding Sou h–
Sou h Coope a ion oday e ol es a ound i s p ac ical applica ion. In pa icula ,
wo issues a e a he c ux o con empo a y SSC. Fi s , how powe ul s a es in he
Global Sou h use SSC o ad ance hei poli ical and economic agendas, and second,
whe he coun ies wi h as ly di e en cha ac e is ics—such as size, powe ,
popula ion, economy, and mili a y capaci y—like Nepal and India—can genuinely
engage in coope a ion unde he SSC amewo k.
The po en ial o SSC o os e Sou h–Sou h solida i y and p omo e equi able
de elopmen s ands in con as o he isk o pe pe ua ing exis ing hie a chies and
inequali ies. The e o e, a c i ical examina ion o bo h i s oppo uni ies and
challenges is essen ial, which I a emp o do in his sec ion. I s a by examining
he a ious a gumen s o and agains SSC. I a gue ha SSC canno be iewed in
isola ion om he wide global poli ical and economic con ex , which includes
powe imbalances, con lic s, and exis ing economic dispa i ies.
In o he wo ds, SSC should no be ega ded as an au onomous o idealised
amewo k de ached om ex e nal con ex s. The e o e, i s success o ailu e is
deeply in e wined wi h he b oade global poli ical and economic eali ies in which
i is embedded and condi ioned o ope a e. I is e iden ha SSC does no seek o
adically ans o m exis ing global economic and poli ical pa adigms. Ra he han
disman ling he cu en sys em and cons uc ing a new one, i aims o ind solu ions
wi hin he p e ailing amewo k. This o ien a ion, howe e , inhe en ly places
signi ican limi a ions on i s scope.
3.4.1 His o ical Aspi a ions and Con empo a y Challenges
Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion, pa icula ly in he a ena o in e na ional de elopmen ,
and Sou h–Sou h Rela ions, usually in he domain o In e na ional Rela ions,
b oadly indica e he coope a ion o ela ions be ween coun ies in he Global Sou h.
Such coope a ion includes pa ne ships, collabo a ion, and coo dina ion in
economic, poli ical, social, cul u al, and echnical sec o s. In ecen yea s, SSC has
gained signi ican a en ion a in e na ional de elopmen o ums, and global
de elopmen agencies ha e in eg a ed he concep in o hei policy amewo ks. Fo
ins ance, he Uni ed Na ions has es ablished a sepa a e body— he Uni ed Na ions
O ice o Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion— o p omo e and acili a e Sou h–Sou h and
iangula (No h–Sou h–Sou h) coope a ion. Since 2004, he UN has also
65
celeb a ed 16 Decembe as he In e na ional Day o Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion
(UNOSSC 2017).
Ins ances o SSC ha e been seen pa icula ly in he a eas o ade and o eign
di ec in es men s (FDIs). Fo ins ance, Sou h–Sou h ade inc eased om USD
600 billion in 1995 o USD 5.3 illion in 2021, and i s olume is highe han ha o
No h–Sou h ade (UNCTAD 2023). Sou h–Sou h ade in ecen yea s has no
only ou pe o med bo h global and No h–Sou h ade, bu i is also belie ed o
ha e con ibu ed o e i ing he wo ld economy a e he 2008 inancial c isis
(P iyada shi 2015). SSC has ypically lou ished in a eas o economic coope a ion,
echnology low, and sha ing echnical knowledge o capaci y-building p ojec s in
he de eloping wo ld. Policy ecommenda ions ha e been made o b oaden he
scope o SSC and ex end i in o a eas o peace and secu i y, oo (see, o ins ance,
Ma hu 2014).
The o igins o SSC can be aced back o he Bandung Con e ence o 1955, a
which newly independen Asian and A ican na ions con ened o discuss
coope a i e po en ials among de eloping coun ies. This ini ia i e led o he
es ablishmen o he Uni ed Na ions Con e ence on T ade and De elopmen in
1964, esul ing in he c ea ion o he G oup o 77 o os e solida i y among he
Global Sou h coun ies. In 1974, he UN Gene al Assembly, in i s esolu ion 3251
(XXIX), app o ed he es ablishmen o a special uni o ‘p omo e echnical
coope a ion’ among de eloping coun ies (UNOSSC 2017). In he same yea ,
de eloping coun ies p esen ed hei demand o a New In e na ional Economic
O de a he Uni ed Na ions. This pe iod ma ked he heigh o he Non-Aligned
Mo emen (NAM), as many de eloping coun ies we e inc easingly ed up wi h he
bipola global di ision and hei unequal ep esen a ion in he in e na ional
sys em. Despi e gaining poli ical independence, hey had ealised ha s uc u es o
subjuga ion pe sis ed, albei in new o ms. The p e ailing mindse among
de eloping coun ies was ha he pa h o o e coming hei challenges lay in uni ing
and ac ing in solida i y. Thus, he concep o SSC somehow emana ed om he
NAM’s ounda ions and he collec i e aspi a ion o he de eloping coun ies o
eshape he global o de . The Buenos Ai es Plan o Ac ion o P omo ing and
Implemen ing Technical Coope a ion among De eloping Coun ies, adop ed in
1978, u he ins i u ionalised SSC. In 1980, he Uni ed Na ions ul ima ely
es ablished a High-le el Commi ee on he Re iew o Technical Coope a ion among
De eloping Coun ies, which was enamed in 2004 as he High-le el Commi ee on
Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion (see P ashad 2007, Besada e al. 2019).
Al hough his o ically based on mobilising de eloping coun y solida i y, SSC
has been e i alised by eme ging economies p ima ily o ad ance hei economic
and s a egic in e es s. Wi h he poli ical and economic ise o a hand ul o coun ies
om he Global Sou h, such as China, India, B azil, and o he s, c oss- and sub-
egional coope a ion in he Global Sou h began o inc ease apidly, pa icula ly
since he 1990s (Ekoko & Benn 2002). Though SSC was adi ionally cen ed
a ound an i-colonial poli ical solida i y, echnical coope a ion, o he ad ocacy o
a New In e na ional Economic O de , in la e yea s, he ocus shi ed o ade and
o eign di ec in es men s, in as uc u e inancing, and de elopmen coope a ion
and aid p og ammes (Mawdsley 2012).
Fo ins ance, China adop ed he SSC discou se in he ea ly 2000s o
di e en ia e i sel om he adi ional No h–Sou h coope a ion model
ep esen ed by he OECD's De elopmen Assis ance Commi ee (Gülse en 2023).
In 2015, i also es ablished a sepa a e und, he Global De elopmen and Sou h–
Sou h Coope a ion Fund, o inance i s SSC p ojec s. Simila ly, India has also
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adop ed and le e aged SSC he o ic ex ensi ely. Fo ins ance, i hos s annual Voice
o Global Sou h summi s and has es ablished he India–UN De elopmen
Pa ne ship Fund. Th ough his und, i has implemen ed p ojec s in mo e han 50
de eloping coun ies, including in Nepal (UNOSSC 2024). Bo h China and India
hea ily ame hei o eign aid p og ammes unde Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion (SSC)
and ac i ely use SSC he o ic in hei o eign policy communica ion. The ul ima e
aim o hese ini ia i es, howe e , appea s o be he enhancemen o hei egional
and global in luence.
Unsu p isingly, Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion, bo h as a heo e ical concep and a
p ac ical app oach, has ga ne ed widesp ead admi a ion as well as ha sh c i icism.
The di ided a gumen s o en come om wo camps. Some iew SSC as a noble idea,
a new sou ce o hope, and a po en ial means o os e ing sel - eliance and
independence o he Global Sou h (see, o ins ance, Mawdsley 2012, Ca mody
2013, Che u 2016, Muh 2016). Those in he opposing camp see SSC as a se o
suga -coa ed he o ic ha esembles a new sc amble o A ica o h i es on he
exploi a ion o poo e and weake coun ies in he Global Sou h (see Sou hall &
Melbe 2009, Moyo 2012). Fo some, SCC amoun s o a o m o neo-dependency
(Aniche 2015), o e en sub-impe ialism (Bond 2015).
The e seems o be a clea endency among hose oman icising SSC o iew i as
a single, homogeneous en i y. Howe e , as coun ies in he Global Sou h a y
g ea ly in size, powe , and capabili ies, SSC exhibi s signi ican a ia ion. Fo
ins ance, Nepal’s collabo a ion wi h a simila ly posi ioned coun y, such as
Bangladesh o Bhu an, will di e g ea ly om i s ela ionship wi h India—a
egional powe ac i ely in ol ed in he global supe powe ace. These a ia ions
mean ha no all o ms o SSC a e c ea ed equal. Schola s who ha e glo i ied SSC
o en o e look hese disc epancies and ail o add ess he as asymme ies be ween
coun ies in he Global Sou h. The e is a clea need o conside hese powe
dynamics along wi h he poli ical and economic eali ies when analysing Sou h–
Sou h Coope a ion, pa icula ly wi hin egional con ex s.
Sou h-Sou h Coope a ion has i s oo s in he aspi a ions o de eloping coun ies
o a New In e na ional Economic O de , hei desi e o cons uc and pa icipa e
in a non-aligned o eign policy mo emen , and hei us a ions wi h
unde de elopmen and a pe sis en s a e o dependence, e en a e yea s o poli ical
independence om colonial powe s. Today’s SSC, as a ph ase, migh s ill ca y
some conno a ion o solida i y, de elopmen , and p og essi e coope a ion in he
Global Sou h. Howe e , i has no ce ainly e ol ed in o wha was once expec ed.
Nea ly se en decades since he Bandung Con e ence, i is e iden ha Sou h–Sou h
Coope a ion has allen sho o i s ini ial p omises and aspi a ions. While ce ain
sec o s, pa icula ly ade, ha e h i ed unde SSC, i s o iginal emancipa o y ision
has e oded signi ican ly. Simila ly, he non-alignmen agenda ha once de ined i
has la gely been abandoned.
As Jouili (2021) has a gued, con empo a y Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion has
abandoned he emancipa o y, so e eign y-d i en ision o he Bandung p ojec in
a ou o a neolibe al pa adigm ha ende s he s a e apoli ical and de elopmen
challenges me ely echnical. A he same ime, eme ging powe s, despi e hei
g owing ins i u ional oles, p ima ily seek u he in eg a ion in o global capi alism
and pe pe ua e adi ional cen e–pe iphe y pola isa ion (Jouili 2021).
Indeed, Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion has su e ed om a mix o in e nal
dispa i ies (in capaci y and ins i u ional amewo ks) and ex e nal shi s in he
global economic and poli ical landscape (pa icula ly he end o he Cold Wa and
he subsequen ise o neolibe al economic policies). The esul ing en i onmen has
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o en a ou ed mo e immedia e, bila e al, o egionally con ined pa ne ships o e
he b oade , mul ila e al solida i y ha was once en isioned o he Global Sou h.
As a esul , while some coun ies in he Global Sou h ha e ascended he global
poli ical and economic ladde by leaps and bounds, o o he de eloping coun ies,
widesp ead po e y, a ious o ms o inequali y, con lic , unde de elopmen , and a
o m o us a ion and hopelessness, which we e p esen a he onse o he SSC,
a e s ill a s a k eali y.
Rising powe s o he Global Sou h, such as India, China, and B azil, a e
signi ican con ibu o s o he disappoin ing p og ess o he SSC solida i y agenda.
While hey con inue o use SSC he o ic mo e han e e , hey ha e e ec i ely
sidelined Sou h–Sou h solida i y and he p inciples o he NAM. Ins ead, hey
appea o be ac i ely engaging in hegemonic compe i ion and mi o ing he
p ac ices o adi ional global powe s. As a esul , he de eloping coun ies ha
once saw an emancipa o y po en ial in SSC ha e ended up in a si ua ion in which
he Sou h–Sou h he o ic is inc easingly used by powe ul coun ies in he Global
Sou h, mainly o ad ance hei own s a egic poli ical and economic in e es s. In
his con ex , wo hings a e clea . Fi s , i is c ucial o dis inguish be ween he o ic
and eali y. Do coun ies such as China and India genuinely ep esen he in e es s
o he de eloping wo ld, despi e hei i m asse ions o do so? Second, accusa ions
ha ising powe s in he Global Sou h a e inc easingly beha ing as sub-impe ialis
ac o s mus be aken se iously and in es iga ed ho oughly.
3.4.2 A F amewo k o Solida i y o Sub-Impe ialism?
As a gued abo e, he e is a need o a ho ough e-e alua ion o Sou h–Sou h
Coope a ion, pa icula ly in ela ion o i s use by he so-called ising powe s o he
Global Sou h. The accusa ion ha hese powe s a e employing SSC me ely as a
he o ical ool o s eng hen hei own posi ions in he global powe hie a chy is a
se ious and highly ele an ques ion o his s udy (see Bond & Ga cia 2015, Bond
e al. 2021). An equally pe inen ques ion is whe he he economic and poli ical
ascen o a selec ew coun ies in he Global Sou h holds signi icance o he
emancipa o y Sou h–Sou h p ojec ha many passiona ely ad oca e and con inue
o place hei ai h in (see, o ins ance, Mawdsley 2012, Ca mody 2013, Che u 2016,
Muh 2016, Be gamaschi e al. 2017).
The ex en o which he ising powe s o he Global Sou h challenge he
dominan poli ical and economic go e nance sys ems emains a con en ious issue.
While some con inue o see an emancipa o y elemen in he so-called ise o he
ising powe s om he Global Sou h, o o he s, hey a e s ongly posi ioned o a e
simply pa o he Wes -cen ed neolibe al wo ld o de (see, o ins ance, G ay &
Mu phy 2013, Vanaik 2013, Bond & Ga cia 2015, Bond e al. 2021).
To begin wi h, e en s such as China’s en y in o he Wo ld T ade O ganisa ion
in 2001 indica ed ha ‘ a he han p oposing an al e na i e o he US-cen ed
Washing on Consensus, China may con e sely be in he p ocess o in e nalising he
ules o he Wes ’ (Beeson 2013: 188). A he undamen al le els, he e appea s o
be no subs an i e ideological o in ellec ual i al y among majo global powe s such
as he Uni ed S a es, China, and Russia. As Pe e s (2023) has a gued, hey all
ope a e wi hin he b oade pa adigm o capi alism's poli ical-economic s uc u e
and he in ellec ual ounda ions o secula libe alism. Howe e , each coun y
in e p e s hese concep s di e en ly and seeks o align hem wi h i s speci ic
geopoli ical in e es s.
Simila a gumen s can be made abou ‘middle powe ’ coun ies such as India,
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B azil, and Sou h A ica. They all seem e y unp edic able in hei dealings wi h he
Wes . Bond & Ga cia (2015), o ins ance, explo e he con a ian posi ions o he
BRICS wi hin he wo ld sys em. They a gue ha he ise o he ‘Global Sou h (and
Eas )’ has been unce ain, as i is some imes coope a i e wi h and some imes
an agonis ic o he adi ional powe s. P o iding nume ous examples o suppo
hei claims, hey challenge he no ion ha he BRICS bloc is an an i-impe ialis
o ce seeking o, wha hey call, ‘o e u n ables a he p o e bial emple’ (p. 1).
Fu he mo e, hey demons a e how he BRICS ha e coope a ed o main ain he
neolibe al s a us quo. Examples include BRICS unding he In e na ional Mone a y
Fund (IMF) and es ablishing hei own New De elopmen Bank, wi h an IMF-s yle
Con ingen Rese e A angemen . In addi ion, hey also poin ou he neolibe al
collabo a ion be ween Washing on and he BRICS coun ies in global clima e
nego ia ions. Simila ly, in 2016, China ini ia ed he Asian In as uc u e
In es men Bank, he wo ld’s second-la ges mul ila e al de elopmen bank and
in e na ional inancial ins i u ion, whose co- ounde s included he weal hies
Eu opean coun ies and he B e on Woods Ins i u ions (Bond & Ga cia 2015).
O he schola s ha e made simila obse a ions and ha e a gued ha he so-
called ise o he Global Sou h, o en associa ed wi h he BRICS bloc, o IBSA (India,
B azil, and Sou h A ica) is ‘loca ed wi hin he Wes e n global hegemony’ and ha
hei ac ions a e aimed a secu ing a posi ion a he ‘ able o global neolibe al
economic go e nance’ (G ay & Mu phy 2013: 185). Vanaik (2013: 195–212)
simila ly a gues ha he i m discou se o Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion adop ed by
ising powe s in he Global Sou h, like India and China, is me ely he o ic. Thei
aim, he emphasises, is no o challenge bu o secu e a s onge posi ion wi hin he
US-cen ed wo ld o de .
One key cha ac e is ic o hese ising powe s is hei unp edic abili y in dealing
wi h es ablished global powe s. Thei beha iou is ma ked by an in e play o
coope a ion as well as con on a ion. While some imes aligning wi h global powe s
on ce ain issues, when i sui s hei ambi ions, a imes, hey also asse hei
independence and challenge he s a us quo. As Bond & Ga cia (2015) ha e poin ed
ou , he e a e se e al examples, o ins ance, o he BRICS bloc occasionally
adop ing ‘in e -impe ial’ s ances agains Wes e n powe s. Among o he s, BRICS
membe s ha e denied demands by Wes e n coun ies o impose s ic e in ellec ual
p ope y con ols, especially in pa en s on medicines. Simila ly, some BRICS
leade s boldly challenged Washing on in he Edwa d Snowden case. They also
implici ly and collec i ely suppo ed Russia in he con lic o e C imea (Bond &
Ga cia 2015). Mo eo e , China and India’s de ia ion om he Wes e n s ance on
Russia’s in asion o Uk aine is ano he ecen example (Menon & Rume 2022).
Fu he mo e, BRICS' e o s o es ablish hei own cu ency can be seen as a
mo e o c ea e an al e na i e, non-dolla -based global inancial sys em. To some
ex en , his e lec s hei desi e o educe dependency on he USD and eshape he
exis ing in e na ional inancial o de (Liu & Papa 2022). The mos impo an
ques ion om his s udy’s pe spec i e, howe e , is how hese ising powe s engage
wi h weake , less powe ul coun ies in hei egions. In o he wo ds, how do
coun ies like India and B azil ea coun ies like Nepal and Venezuela?
The economic and poli ical domina ion o BRICS’ less-de eloped neighbou s is
a g owing and legi ima e conce n. Since he so-called ise o mos o hese ising
powe s is la gely based on an ex ac i e, high-ca bon economic model, hei less
powe ul neighbou s a e p one o economic and esou ce exploi a ion. In addi ion,
inc easing e idence shows ha mino i ies and ma ginalised popula ions wi hin
hei own bo de s also su e a he hands o hei ule s. One example being ha
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he c iminalisa ion o social mo emen s and he opp ession o dissiden s in he
BRICS coun ies a e wo se han in he G7 (Bond & Ga cia 2015). China, o ins ance,
con inue o ace in e na ional condemna ion o i s ep ession o he Uyghu e hnic
mino i ies and hose associa ed wi h he F ee Tibe Mo emen . India aces equally
se ious accusa ions o ‘in e nal colonialism’ (see Roy 2011, Dey 2019) and has been
lashed o i s poo ea men o mino i ies, and o commi ing se ious human
igh s iola ions in s a es like Kashmi and Manipu (see Chap e 8).
Some schola s ha e explo ed how he geopoli ical in e es s o ising powe s a e
e lec ed in hei o eign policy p ac ices. Wi h a case s udy o B azil, Ch is ensen
(2013) concludes ha B azil has sough o s eng hen i s geopoli ical s a egy in he
Sou he n Ame ican egion by c ea ing a sphe e o in luence. S uenkel (2013) a gues
ha despi e being wo la ge democ acies, nei he India no B azil has p omo ed
democ acy in hei neighbou ing coun ies. Though India p ides i sel on being he
wo ld’s la ges democ acy, some accuse i o being p ima ily ocused on economic
and geopoli ical powe s uggles, which aises se ious conce ns abou i s
democ a ic mo i es and c eden ials (see Des adi 2010, Roy 2011, Ande son 2014,
H.B. Jha 2014, Bha a ai 2018).
Though SSC had elemen s o solida i y, sha ed iden i y, and a join aspi a ion
o emancipa ion, i has long been in luenced by powe ul coun ies like India and
China, whose economic and s a egic in e es s signi ican ly shaped i s di ec ion.
The ini ial ideals ha e u he e oded o e ime. This has led o he eme gence o
mo e in e es -d i en engagemen s and he ein o cemen o exis ing hie a chies
a he han challenging hem. In o he wo ds, he ising powe s o he Global Sou h
ha e abandoned Sou h–Sou h solida i y and ha e ins ead p io i ised hei own
poli ical and economic ascen . This is e iden in wo main ways: i s , hey seem o
p e e c ea ing and s eng hening sphe es o in luence in hei egions; and second,
hey ac as sub-impe ialis agen s when necessa y o when i bene i s hei in e es s.
In o he wo ds, hey ac as in e media ies o global powe s un il hey can pu sue
hei own hegemonic ambi ions ully. All o his leads o one clea conclusion: he
ising powe s’ sub-impe ial endencies, hei changing pos u ing and posi ioning
wi hin he global o de , and hei con adic o y ac ions demand ho ough sc u iny.
The a e o smalle , weake na ions wi hin hei sphe es o in luence—such as Nepal
in his case—also dese es ca e ul conside a ion. The expe iences and challenges o
hese coun ies mus no be o e looked when analysing ising powe beha iou .
The concep o sub-impe ialism associa ed wi h ising powe s oday is no a new
idea. I was in oduced in he 1960s and can be ound in B azilian economis and
dependency schola Ruy Mau o Ma ini’s wo k on B azil. Ma ini de eloped he
concep o sub-impe ialism wi hin he con ex o Ma xis dependency schola ship.
He used i o explain wha he called he B azilian expansionis policy in La in
Ame ica and A ica, which aimed o gain con ol o e esou ces and aw ma e ials
om weake coun ies on bo h con inen s (see Ma ini 1965, 1972). Sub-impe ialism
schola ship has somehow expe ienced a esu gence again, pa icula ly in ligh o
he ac ions, ques ions, and unce ain ies su ounding he so-called ising powe s.
This esu gence is acili a ed by g owing schola ly in e es in how egional powe s
media e and ex end hegemonic in luence wi hin an e ol ing mul ipola wo ld
o de , pa icula ly amid he econ igu a ion o global capi alism (economic
na ionalism, p o ec ionism, ade wa s, da a and pla o m capi alism) and he
decline o unipola US dominance. Schola s such as Eli Çağlı, Ad ián So elo
Valencia, Claudio Ka z, Pa ick Bond, and Ana Ga cia ha e con ibu ed o he
con empo a y li e a u e on sub-impe ialism.
Ma ini p oposed sub-impe ialism no as a gene ic e m o any powe ul
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egional s a e bu as a speci ic concep de i ed om his Ma xis analysis o
dependency. He de ined sub-impe ialism as he o m which dependen capi alism
assumes upon eaching he s age o monopolies and inance capi al (Ma ini 1972).
The concep is buil on a co e in e nal con adic ion. In a dependen economy, alue
is cons an ly ans e ed o he impe ialis cen e h ough mechanisms like unequal
exchange. To coun e ac his d ain and main ain p o i a es, he pe iphe al
bou geoisie is compelled o eso o he supe -exploi a ion o i s domes ic labou
o ce. Howe e , his e y supe -exploi a ion—by dep essing wages below he cos
o ep oduc ion— es ic s he size and pu chasing powe o he in e nal ma ke ,
especially o du able goods p oduced by he monopoly sec o . This c ea es a
ealisa ion c isis: capi al canno ind su icien p o i able ou le s a home.
This in e nal con adic ion causes an expansionis d i e. The sub-impe ialis
s a e and i s monopoly capi al a e o ced o seek ex e nal ma ke s o hei goods
and capi al, as well as cheape access o aw ma e ials and labou . This expansion
is ypically di ec ed a he sub-impe ial powe 's immedia e geog aphic egion, i s
‘hin e land’.
This expansion is no a b eak om impe ialism bu a new o m o a icula ion
wi h i . Ma ini desc ibed B azil's ela ionship wi h he Uni ed S a es no as one o
simple submission, bu as a loyal ‘ba gain’ o ‘an agonis ic coope a ion’ (Ma ini
1972). The sub-impe ial powe ca es ou a sphe e o egional hegemony, ac ing as
a junio pa ne o egional manage o he global impe ialis sys em. I helps
main ain o de and acili a e accumula ion in i s egion, se ing bo h i s own
expansionis needs and he b oade in e es s o global capi al.
In i s simples o m, sub-impe ialism cha ac e ises a scena io in which a na ion
o a g oup o na ions, hough no impe ialis powe s hemsel es, se e as
in e media ies o impe ialis powe s wi hin hei egions. They end o le e age
hei in luence o ex ac esou ces, con ol ma ke s, and sway poli ical dynamics
in o he coun ies, o en wo king alongside majo global powe s. In ha sense, sub-
impe ialism can be unde s ood as a pa allel and seconda y o m o con empo a y
impe ialism (Ka z 2021). Ka z, who emphasises he mili a y componen o
impe ialism, a gues ha he en i e impe ial sys em, which gua an ees he ans e
o alue om pe iphe y o co e, is ul ima ely unde gi ded by a ‘coe ci e pilla ’, he
use o h ea o mili a y o ce. While he US and i s NATO allies o m he p ima y
axis o his mili a y powe , sub-impe ial powe s pa icipa e in his sys em a a
egional le el. Ka z's con ibu ion upda es he concep o sub-impe ialism by
adding an explici geopoli ical-mili a y dimension.
A sub-impe ial powe is no jus an economic expande ; i is also a egional
genda me. As is clea in India’s sub-impe ialism in Nepal, explained in he la e
chap e s, i uses i s mili a y and secu i y appa a us— h ough a ms sales, aining,
join exe cises, and di ec in e en ion— o p ojec powe , secu e i s economic
in e es s, and main ain o de wi hin i s sphe e o in luence. In o he wo ds, sub-
empi es engage in economic and poli ical exploi a ion o hei egions, much like
adi ional impe ialis s, bu hei in luence is geog aphically limi ed (see, o
ins ance, Väy ynen & He e a 1975, Çağlı 2009, Bond 2015, Valencia 2017, Bond e
al. 2021, Ka z 2021).
The e is g owing e idence ha he eme ging powe s om he Global Sou h,
especially he BRICS na ions, ha e demons a ed sub-impe ialis beha iou s and
con ibu ed o he main enance o global hegemony and neolibe al egimes. They
a e engaged in capi al accumula ion, esou ce ex ac ion, and ma ke expansion in
ways ha ein o ce exis ing powe s uc u es a he han challenge hem. While
hey may assis , accommoda e, and coope a e wi h exis ing global hegemons, hei
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ul ima e ambi ion, howe e , seems o be o ascend he global powe hie a chy and
es ablish hei own hegemony.
A guing ha he BRICS ollow colonial and neo-colonial acks, Bond (2015)
elabo a es on di e en ace s o mode n-day sub-impe ialism. Acco ding o him,
con empo a y sub-impe ialism includes semi-pe iphe al accumula ion, hin e land
exploi a ion, in e nal modes o supe -exploi a ion, and he ep oduc ion o a wo ld
sys em based on neolibe alism and mili a y agg ession. He iden i ies h ee
addi ional oles o sub-impe ialis egimes. The i s addi ional ole, he a gues, is
ensu ing egional geopoli ical s abili y in ola ile a eas. Tha is, playing he ole o
a egional ‘depu y she i ’ and engaging in su plus ans e s om he hin e land o
he sub-impe ialis capi al ci y, and o en om he e o he impe ialis
headqua e s. These a e p ima ily loca ed in ad anced capi alis s a es, pa icula ly
he Uni ed S a es and o he Global No h economies, whe e majo inancial
ins i u ions, mul ina ional co po a ions, and in e na ional o ganisa ions such as
he IMF and he Wo ld Bank a e headqua e ed.
Second, a sub-impe ialis egime also ad ances he b oade agenda o globalised
neolibe alism. This includes launching ins i u ions ha may he o ically oppose
neolibe alism bu , in p ac ice, aim o do he opposi e. Thi d, sub-impe ialis
egimes engage in supe -exploi a i e p ac ices wi hin hei hin e lands, ollowing
colonial and neo-colonial acks. P oposing Sou h A ica as an example, Bond
(2015) a gues ha he co e impe a i es o sub-impe ialism emain he main enance
o a libe al egime ha pe mi s he ee low o labou and capi al and he
main enance o a supe io secu i y capabili y able o p ojec in o i s egion.
Acco ding o him, Sou h A ica ac s as a egional acili a o o global capi alism. I s
ole is o keep A ican economies open o Wes e n in es men while supp essing
al e na i e economic models. I en o ces neolibe al policies om ins i u ions like
he IMF and he Wo ld Bank, in eg a ing A ica in o he global sys em in ways ha
bene i Wes e n in e es s, including inancial lows, ade ou es, and s uc u al
adjus men s. I s p edominan me hods a e colonial policy, an in e na ional loan
sys em, a policy o sphe es o in e es , and wa (Bond 2015).
Ma ini and Bond bo h use he concep o sub-impe ialism o c i ique how
ce ain semi-pe iphe al s a es asse dominance wi hin hei egions while
emaining subo dina e o co e capi alis powe s. Ma ini de eloped he concep in
he 1970s wi hin he amewo k o Ma xis dependency heo y, using B azil as an
example o a coun y ha , while dependen on US impe ialism, also played a
egional impe ialis ole by expo ing capi al and domina ing weake neighbou ing
economies. His analysis emphasised he s uc u al con adic ions o pe iphe al
capi alism and he ep oduc ion o impe ialis dynamics wi hin he Global Sou h.
Pa ick Bond, w i ing in he pos -apa heid and neolibe al e a, builds on and
ex ends Ma ini’s amewo k o analyse Sou h A ica’s ole in sou he n A ica.
Bond’s app oach is g ounded in c i ical poli ical economy and social jus ice
ac i ism, and o en emphasises how Sou h A ica, unde he banne o Sou h–Sou h
Coope a ion, ad ances he in e es s o Wes e n capi al h ough egional
dominance, mili a y in e en ions, and neolibe al policy expo . While bo h
heo is s ag ee ha sub-impe ial powe s ac as in e media ies in global capi alism,
Bond ocuses mo e on neolibe al go e nance and global inancial s uc u es,
whe eas Ma ini cen es on s uc u al dependency and class con adic ions wi hin
capi alis de elopmen .
Ka z’s wo k also aligns wi h Bond’s c i ique o neolibe al Sou h–Sou h ela ions,
pa icula ly in how s a es like Sou h A ica ope a e sub-impe ially wi hin hei
egions. Howe e , Ka z is less ocused on ac i is amewo ks and mo e on
78
The co e-pe iphe y ela ions p oposed by he wo ld-sys ems app oach expand
beyond na ional bounda ies and exceed he al eady-p oposed No h–Sou h
dicho omy. Simila ly, i is en i ely possible o ha e all h ee capi alis zones—co e,
semi-pe iphe y, and pe iphe y—wi hin a single coun y o egion. This also applies
o he co e-pe iphe y ela ions among coun ies in he Global Sou h. This s a ing
poin is especially ele an and use ul o his s udy, as I aim o examine and analyse
he dependency pa e ns ha cha ac e ise India–Nepal ela ions— wo coun ies in
he Global Sou h wi h some signi ican simila i ies, bu also as di e ences.
Dependency and wo ld-sys ems app oaches ha e also aced subs an ial
c i icism. O e he yea s, he unp eceden ed uphea als in he global poli ical
landscape ha e signi ican ly in luenced dependency heo y and wo ld-sys ems
app oaches. As Sanchéz (2003: 39) pu s i , once in luen ial ac oss mul iple
disciplines and alued beyond academia, dependency ideas ha e allen ou o
ashion and ha e been educed o oo no e s a us.
Howe e , he so-called ‘demise o dependency’ was no sudden. Dependency
hough s su e ed se e e heo e ical c i iques om he de elopmen alis ,
s uc u alis , and mains eam economic on s. Addi ionally, he lack o
‘ e i iabili y’ in dependency ideas—being ague and di icul o es — aised
ques ions abou hei eal-li e use ulness. As S allings (1992: 48) sums up, ‘ he
combina ion o in ellec ual c i iques and ein o cing in e na ional ends had a
de as a ing e ec on dependency analysis’. One o he main ac o s ha made
dependency heo ies nea ly obsole e was hei insis ence ha de elopmen and
p og ess wi hin he global capi alis sys em we e impossible. Howe e , hese claims
appea ed o be con adic ed by he eali y on he g ound. Fo ins ance, as Sanchéz
(2003: 39) elabo a es:
The e olu ion o a leas ou economies—Sou h Ko ea, Singapo e, Taiwan and Hong Kong—
showed wo hings adically a odds wi h dependency ene s: i s , ha a aining economic
p og ess is e y much possible; and second, ha i is easible ia enhanced in eg a ion wi h
he wo ld economy.
In addi ion o hese challenges, he all o socialis /communis egimes wo ldwide
se ed as ‘ he nail in he co in o he dependency mo emen ’ (Sanchéz 2003: 39).
Simila ly, dependency ideas we e a acked o hei p eoccupa ion wi h he ills o
capi alism while neglec ing domes ic o ces o de elopmen —local ac o s, hei
agency, and hei sphe e o choices, and in luence. A guably, dependency heo y’s
po ayal o local ac o s educed hem o look like no hing mo e han pawns o
ex e nal o ces (Smi h 1979: 257–58). Some c i ics ha e poin ed ou ha coun ies
like India appea ed o ha e e en bene i ed om colonialism, pa icula ly in e ms
o he expansion o hei anspo a ion and communica ion sys ems (see Manning
1974, Gold ho pe 1975). In con as , o he coun ies, such as Nepal o E hiopia,
which we e ne e colonised and had emained somewha disconnec ed om global
capi alism, emained poo e and less de eloped38.
As neolibe alism ascended o become he new heo y o choice among
mains eam economics schola s, unde de elopmen in de eloping coun ies was
38 The absence o o mal colonisa ion did no mean ha hese coun ies we e ee om colonial in luence.
Fo ins ance, Nepal was ne e o mally colonised, bu i was no immune o colonial in luence, pa icula ly om
he B i ish Empi e. Nepal was obliged o p o ide Gu kha soldie s o B i ish mili a y se ice, and i s economy
and ex e nal ela ions we e la gely shaped by B i ish in e es s. Nepal's o eign policy was also aligned wi h
B i ish objec i es. This lack o o mal colonisa ion allowed B i ain o eap many o he bene i s ypically
associa ed wi h colonial ule—such as access o esou ces and manpowe —wi hou he adminis a i e bu dens
o di ec con ol (see Mulmi 2017).
79
seen no so much as a cen e–pe iphe y p oblem. Ins ead, i was associa ed wi h a
ange o o he issues, such as co up ion in go e nmen s in he Global Sou h, e hnic
con lic , ci il wa s, landlocked geog aphical loca ion, lack o inclusi e ins i u ions,
cul u al issues, and so o h (see, o ins ance, Collie 2008, Robinson & Acemoglu
2012).39 The connec ion be ween de elopmen aid and he dependency discou se
was also weakened, as in luen ial neolibe al economis s such as Je ey Sachs began
o a gue ha many de eloping coun ies had bene i ed om aid p og ammes un
by in e na ional aid agencies o Wes e n go e nmen s. Unlike dependency
schola s, neolibe al economis s sugges ed ha de elopmen aid could be an
e ec i e mechanism o elimina ing po e y and unde de elopmen om he
de eloping wo ld (see, o ins ance, Sachs 2005).
Agains his backd op, he ele ance o dependency heo y and wo ld-sys ems
app oaches has been widely deba ed. On one hand, i seems ha hey a e
undoub edly acing a c isis, challenged by shi s in academic ocus and hei dismal
pe o mance in p edic ing plausible ou comes. Ye , on he o he hand, hey a e also
expe iencing a esu gence, acili a ed by ecen changes and unce ain ies in he
global landscape. The expansion o global capi alism, along wi h he ise o powe ul
mul ina ional co po a ions and he inc easing economic dominance o a ew key
playe s, has enewed in e es in dependency pe spec i es. Fo ins ance, mode n
global supply chains, inance, and echnology illus a e con empo a y
dependencies: de eloping coun ies ypically p o ide low- alue labou o aw
inpu s while co e coun ies con ol inno a ion, inance, and ma ke sys ems. E en
wi h globalisa ion and he ise o eme ging economies (such as he BRICS),
dependency heo y’s lens exposes how dominan coun ies main ain powe —
some imes shi ing he dynamics bu no he undamen al s uc u es o
dependency.
While some ha e seemed o enjoy he limi ed espi e o e ed by pos colonial
hough s,40 many dependency schola s and o he s, none heless, con inue o belie e
ha dependency heo y and wo ld-sys em app oaches a e jus as ele an oday,
especially when examining powe ela ions in he 21s cen u y and analysing he
p essing issues c ippling mode n co po a e capi alism.41
3.5.1 A Con empo a y De ence o Dependency Ideas
Some c i icisms o dependency heo y s em om he con usion su ounding i s
unde s anding and he a ious o ms and scope i encompasses. Sanchéz (2003),
o ins ance, a gues ha he name i sel is decei ing as dependency heo y is no a
39 Collie (2008), o ins ance, a gues ha po e y and unde de elopmen canno be educed o a his o y o
exploi a ion bu can be linked o ci il wa s, e hnic ensions, and un a ou able geog aphy. Simila ly, Robinson
& Acemoglu (2012) a gue ha he lack o inclusi e ins i u ions also hinde s p ospe i y and de elopmen .
40 W i ings o schola s such as Edwa d Said, Gaya i Chak a o y Spi ak, and Homi K. Bhabha o e some
classic eadings on pos colonial heo y. See, o ins ance, O’Hanlon & Washb ook (1992), Di lik (1994), Ahmad
(1997), and Chibbe (2014) o an ex ensi e and c i ical e iew o pos colonial heo y. Pos colonial heo y has
been c i icised p ima ily o i s shallow ocus, i a all, on he ole o capi alism and i s insu icien a en ion o
socioeconomic inequali y and inconsis encies c ea ed by capi alis mode ni y. In sho , pos colonial heo y
‘app oaches capi alism epis emologically,’ whe eas, o dependency heo y, ‘capi al is ounda ional o
on ological’ (Kapoo 2002: 658). In addi ion, schola s such as Chibbe (2014) c i icise pos colonial heo y o
i s po ayal o cul u es as ixed and s a ic, i s assump ions ha he gap be ween he Eas and he Wes is
unb idgeable— he eby denying people’s ‘uni e sal aspi a ions—and o labelling all Enligh enmen alues as
Eu ocen ic.
41 In a 2017 edi ion o Ideas o De elopmen (eds. K ang a en, S y e, Ku aku inani, & San an a),
dependency schola s such as Sami Amin, Adebayo O. Olukoshi, Miguel Angel Cen eno, and Ma ías Ve nengo
enew hei ai h in dependency ideas and hei ele ance in he 21s cen u y.
80
heo y pe se, bu an app oach o he s udy o unde de elopmen . Unde s anding
dependency as an app oach ins ead o a heo y omi s he need o es and e i y i
o empi ical alidi y. Sanchéz u he a gues ha he eme gence o ‘ lawed,
p ejudiced, o incomple e in e p e a ions’ o dependency ideas migh ha e been
agg a a ed by he ac ha schola s in he ‘cen e’ p edomina ely ead only he
dependency li e a u e ansla ed in o English, lea ing behind a lo o coun y-
speci ic cases on he ‘domes ic s uc u e o dependence’ (p. 33).
C i ics o dependency and wo ld-sys ems app oaches o en ci e examples o Eas
Asian economies, pa icula ly Sou h Ko ea and Taiwan, o claim ha apid
economic g ow h and de elopmen we e possible while s ill being connec ed o he
co e. Howe e , o he schola s ha e ques ioned he accu acy o hese claims. Sami
Amin, a enowned dependency schola , o ins ance, a gues ha he Eas Asian
coun ies in ques ion we e, in ac , ‘allowed’ o mo e om he ‘pe iphe y’ o he
‘co e’ due o geos a egic easons, mainly o a e he h ea o China and No h
Ko ea (in K ang a en 2017: 16). Simila ly, he wo ks o schola s like Pe as & Hui
(1991) and Medei os (2004) illus a e how he Uni ed S a es p ac ised
'de elopmen by in i a ion' by opening ma ke s o ce ain Eas Asian coun ies
while es ic ing access o o he de eloping coun ies. E en when US concessions
we e no o e ed, such as in China, he oad o de elopmen was eached wi h a
combina ion o ‘cen al planning’ and ‘selec i e opening’ (Olukoshi, in S y e 2017:
24).
Be o e concluding whe he dependency analysis is ele an in he 21s cen u y,
i is c ucial o conside con empo a y global poli ical and economic con ex s.
Despi e p og ess made in a hand ul o coun ies in he Global Sou h, i is no sec e
ha old lines o inequali y and unequal powe ela ions pe sis and p e ail in
a ious o ms. Equally, ‘ he ac ha some coun ies seem o be b eaking ou o he
dependency ap does no mean ha a ap ne e exis ed’ (Glennie & Hassanaien
2012).
I is also impo an o emphasise ha he dependency ela ionships o he 21s
cen u y may look qui e di e en om hose o he pas . Re e ing o he
p oli e a ion o mul ina ional co po a ions and he pe asi e co po a e capi alism,
S ange (1994: 215), o ins ance, a gues ha ‘op ing ou o he wo ld ma ke
economy is no longe an op ion’ and ‘ ha is wha dependency means oday’.
Con a y o he a gumen s made by p oponen s o globalisa ion, he bene i s o
globalisa ion ha e no been dis ibu ed equally, and i has no been sui able o all.
As Sami Amin a gues, globalisa ion has been pola ising, and he cen es ha e
shaped i in hei a ou (in K ang a en 2017: 14). Fa ny (2016) makes simila
ema ks, a guing ha global dispa i y along he No h–Sou h di ide con inues, and
oday’s dependency ela ions pe sis h ough ade deals, o eign di ec in es men ,
and de elopmen aid. Apa om he clea di e ences in income le els and li ing
s anda ds be ween de eloped and de eloping coun ies, capi al lows om he
pe iphe y o he semi-pe iphe y and ul ima ely o he co e coun ies, acili a ed by
mul ina ional co po a ions.
Simila ly, po e y in sub-Saha an A ica and Sou h Asia is s ill pe asi e. Rich
coun ies a he ‘co e’ con inue o hold mo e powe in in e na ional inancial
ins i u ions, and mechanisms such as he Doha ound o nego ia ions, which would
ha e bene i ed de eloping coun ies had i been success ul, con inue o al e . The
de eloped wo ld, in ac , ‘has used much poli ical muscle in making su e he doo
o hei ag icul u al ma ke s emains shu ’ (Sanchéz 2003: 45–46).
Wha is e en mo e conce ning is he eplica ion o dependency ela ions a
mul iple le els. As al eady men ioned, Wes e n powe s con inue o main ain
81
enewed o ms o dependency globally. A he same ime, he ising powe s o he
Global Sou h—o hose ac ing as sub-empi es—ha e ec ea ed and ein o ced he
same pa e ns wi hin hei sphe es o in luence. I is also no sec e ha he wo ld is
no p og essing owa ds g ea e equali y; ins ead, he gap be ween he iches and
he poo es con inues o widen. The ise o ech gian s as new agen s o c oss-bo de
capi al accumula ion u he exace ba es hese dispa i ies. This shows ha
dependency and wo ld-sys ems app oaches a e becoming inc easingly impo an
o unde s anding con empo a y global issues and how global co po a e capi alism
ope a es.
As al eady men ioned, he so-called ise42 o a ew coun ies in he Global Sou h,
such as China, India, B azil, and Sou h A ica, a guably om he semi-pe iphe y
owa ds he ‘co e’, has no elimina ed, bu c ea ed new and mo e agg essi e o ms
o dependency ela ions wi hin he Global Sou h. As analysed in Chap e s 7, 8, and
9 o his hesis, he dependency pa e ns be ween wo unequal coun ies in he
con empo a y Global Sou h—examined he e h ough he case o India and Nepal—
a e shaped by geopoli ical, economic, and esou ce in e es s. O en collec i ely
exp essed in he o m o sub-impe ialism, capi al accumula ion and su plus
ans e s a e cen al o hese unequal co-exis ences.
O he esea che s ha e iden i ied simila pa e ns elsewhe e. Taylo (2016: 8),
o ins ance, no es ha he widesp ead hype claiming he ise o A ica is a my h, as
he so-called ise is ‘based on an in ensi ica ion o esou ce ex ac ion whils
dependency deepens, inequali y inc eases, and de-indus ialisa ion con inues
apace’. In an analysis o Sino–La in Ame ica ade ela ions, Ski a (2007: 18) poin s
ou ha while La in Ame ica expo ed mainly aw ma e ials and p ima y p oduc s
o China, i s impo s om China we e p ima ily manu ac u ed goods. No ing ha
a ound 76% o La in Ame ican coun ies’ expo s o China cons i u ed p ima y
commodi ies, she concludes ha ‘Sino–La in Ame ican ade ela ions esemble in
some ways he cen e–pe iphe y ela ionships ou lined by P ebisch’ (p. 18).
This is a clea indica ion ha dependency hough s a e s ill ele an oday and
can be used o ‘making sense o global inequali ies in oday’s globalised wo ld’
(Fa ny 2016). Dependency hough s a e also help ul in ecognising ‘s uc u al
imbalances and causes o unde de elopmen ’ in he con empo a y wo ld
(Rado ano ic 2012: 9). This is e en mo e ele an , pa icula ly when dependency
denie s ‘o e no angible exi om unde de elopmen ...o he han a commi men
o a policy and poli ics o mimic y’ (Olukoshi in S y e 2017). Howe e ,
unde s anding he di e si y o dependency as an app oach is essen ial. When
unde s ood as an app oach—despi e any sho comings inhe en in he heo y—i
emains use ul as a concep ual ool o analysing he pas and he p esen .
As a concluding ema k o his sec ion, i is wo h highligh ing ha dependency
ideas can ce ainly be use ul no only in analysing unde de elopmen —as had been
he case adi ionally—bu also o make sense o con empo a y in e na ional
ela ions, pa e ns o in e na ional ade, in es men , de elopmen aid, and, mo e
ecen ly, he beha iou o he so-called ising powe s o he Global Sou h. No ma e
how hey a e p esen ed o ede ined, co e–pe iphe y ela ions con inue o exis in
a ious o ms and ha e expanded om No h–Sou h o Sou h–Sou h le els. This
has esul ed in new pa e ns o dependency and exploi a ion ha we e once
unimaginable, especially when a la ge g oup o de eloping coun ies had
collec i ely en isioned c ea ing a new in e na ional economic o de and leading
42 The ‘ ise’ o he Global Sou h has been a con es ed issue in i sel , as coun ies like India and China ha e
held global powe no only oday bu also cen u ies ago (see, o ins ance, Tellis & Mi ski 2013).
82
hei collec i e poli ical and economic emancipa ion. In sho , oday’s global
eali ies necessi a e a esh heo e ical inqui y, and dependency heo ies o e an
excellen s a ing poin . As e iden in subsequen chap e s, I use he dependency
amewo k, wi h a pa icula emphasis on sub-impe ialism, o analyse India’s
ac ions in Nepal and ca y ou a b oade e alua ion o India–Nepal ela ions. In
o he wo ds, dependency heo ies a e no obsole e, and hei heo e ical ele ance
con inues o endu e. They can help us comp ehend co e–pe iphe y ela ions o he
pas bu also o oday.
3.6 Chap e Summa y: In eg a ing Theo e ical Pe spec i es
This chap e ou lines he heo e ical amewo k used in his s udy. The amewo k
syn hesises a ious heo e ical pe spec i es la e used o analyse India's
in ol emen in Nepal's peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion. By inco po a ing
heo ies o con lic media ion, models o ising powe beha iou , and wo ld-
sys ems and dependency analysis, his chap e cons uc ed a heo e ical amewo k
sui able o analysing India’s engagemen in Nepal and e-e alua ing con empo a y
India–Nepal ela ions. The i s sec ion in oduced heo e ical concep s ela ed o
peace media ion, pa icula ly ipeness heo y, which iden i ies op imal momen s
o con lic esolu ion. Media ion is p esen ed as a ool o esol ing con lic s, and
an o e iew o he cu en global media ion landscape is o e ed. D awing on wo ks
o schola s like Saadia Tou al, concep s o ‘powe media ion’ and ‘pu e media ion’
a e explo ed. Media ion as a o eign policy ool is ho oughly discussed,
acknowledging ha while ‘powe media o s’ may b oke peace ag eemen s, hei
es ed in e es s and pos -ag eemen ac ions wa an c i ical examina ion. The
chap e hen mo ed on o he discussion o Sou h–Sou h Coope a ion, highligh ing
di e ing schola ly iews. Some see SSC as an emancipa o y concep , while o
o he s, i is a o m o exploi a ion, neocolonialism, o e en sub-impe ialism. A e
discussing he sub-impe ialis endencies o he so-called ising powe s o he
Global Sou h, I a gue ha SSC should be e alua ed wi hin he b oade con ex o
global poli ical and economic p ocesses a he han as a s andalone inno a ion o a
bene olen panacea. The inal sec ion elabo a ed on dependency and wo ld-
sys ems heo ies. Despi e hei cu en academic unpopula i y, i is a gued ha
dependency and wo ld-sys ems heo ies a e expe iencing a esu gence o a eason
and appea o be inc edibly use ul o analysing inc easingly complex global
poli ical and economic ela ions o ou ime.
83
4. The Tumul uous Pa h o Peace in Nepal: A
Li e a u e Re iew
The Nepali peace p ocess, which culmina ed in 2006 wi h he signing o he
Comp ehensi e Peace Acco d (CPA), had a complica ed pas . P e ious a emp s o
peace bo e no ui , as he alks epea edly s alled and ailed. The a emp s o ind a
mili a y solu ion o he con lic ul ima ely back i ed o King Gyanend a, who los
his h one and became he las king o he 240-yea -old Shah dynas y. The 2006
peace deal p omised a new and be e Nepal o i s ci izens; howe e , amid pos -
con lic poli ical w angling, i ook ano he nine yea s me ely o p omulga e a new
cons i u ion. As he poli ical ansi ion deepened, India's in ol emen in Nepal's
pos -con lic peace and ansi ional poli ical p ocesses became a p essing issue.
Since his s udy ocuses on he same opic, his chap e p o ides insigh in o he
esea ch con ex and e iews he ele an li e a u e.
In he i s sec ion, I b ie ly examine Nepal’s mode n his o y, e en hough a
ho ough analysis o he his o ical pas is beyond he scope o his hesis. I o e his
b ie oyage in o his o y o demons a e how Nepal has his o ically unde gone a
pain ul ans o ma ion. Nepal’s e olu ion owa ds wha one migh now call a
pa icipa o y and inclusi e democ acy has no been easy. Apa om i s own
domes ic hu dles, India’s p esence and in luence in Nepal h oughou i s mode n
his o y has been consis en , asse i e, and some imes e en u hless. Whene e one
a emp s o in es iga e, analyse, o c i ically assess India–Nepal ela ions, a b ie
e iew o he his o ical con ex is bo h necessa y and help ul. Tha is wha I aim o
do in he i s pa o his chap e .
In he second pa o his chap e , I p o ide a b ie o e iew o he Maois a med
insu gency (1996–2006) and i s impac on Nepali socie y. I discuss he o igins and
p og ess o he insu gency and assess he causes and consequences o he con lic .
Again, he aim is no o o e an exhaus i e analysis o he con lic —o he schola s
ha e al eady done ha 43—bu o o e some his o ical and geopoli ical con ex o
he a med con lic . In e ms o i s size and he damage i caused, he Maois a med
insu gency will be emembe ed as one o he mos iolen episodes in Nepal's
mode n his o y. The insu gency claimed mo e han 17,000 li es, le many
wounded and auma ised, and se e ely impac ed Nepal’s economy. A he same
ime, i shook he ounda ions o Nepali s a e s uc u es, ans o med he poli ical
psyche o o dina y Nepalis, and igge ed a adical pa adigm shi in Nepal’s
mode n poli ical landscape.
In he hi d sec ion, I p o ide a comp ehensi e e iew o he exis ing li e a u e,
ocusing speci ically on India's ole in Nepal’s peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion.
I conclude he chap e by highligh ing i e signi ican issues ha ea lie s udies
ha e o e looked, hus jus i ying he need o his esea ch.
43 Fo a de ailed unde s anding o he Maois insu gency, i s o igin, ideological bases, de elopmen , and
impac s on Nepali socie y, see, o ins ance, Ka ki & Seddon (2003), Thapa & Sijapa i (2004), Hu (2004),
Ones o (2005), Lawo i & Paha i (2009), and Adhika i (2014).
84
4.1 A B ie His o y o Mode n Nepal and he India Fac o
The o ma ion o mode n Nepal da es back o he 18 h cen u y. Be o e he 18 h
cen u y, a signi ican pa o cu en Nepal comp ised negligible s a es and
e i o ies—known as Baise and Chaubise s a es—each con olled by i s own king
(Sha ma 2004: 10). In 1743, P i h i Na ayan Shah (he ea e P. N. Shah), a young
king om a iny p incipali y known as Go kha, began o expand his kingdom by
a acking and annexing o he iny s a es.44 Shah’s i s a ack was on Nuwako ,
whe e his a he , Na a Bhupal Shah,45 had been de ea ed in 1736 (No hey & Mo is
1928: 30–31). In 1768, he Go kha soldie s in aded he Ka hmandu alley (Walle
2004: 171), and by 1775, he passing yea o P. N. Shah, he annexa ion p ocess had
eached up o eas e n Nepal and Sikkim (Whelp on 1997).
P. N. Shah played a signi ican ole in he o ma ion o he mode n Nepali s a e.
He is also emembe ed o his con ibu ion o shaping Nepal's o eign policy. Be o e
his dea h, he epo edly summoned no able noblemen, p ies s and his close aides
known as bha da s o his side and o e ed a ange o ad ice which was la e
documen ed and published as he Di yopadesh.46 As e iden in his eachings, Shah
belie ed ha Nepal’s o eign policy should be based on non-alignmen and
neu ali y, which many schola s a gue s ill guide Nepal’s o eign policy (see, o
ins ance, Ba al 2018, Khanal 2019). Shah’s conce ns abou he p esence o he Eas
India Company and i s dominance in India and he possibili y o i s e en ual
espassing in o Nepal a e e lec ed in his eachings. In he Di yopadesh, he says:
This s a e (Nepal) is like a yam (gou d) be ween wo s ones. Keep a s ong iendship wi h
he Empe o o China; one has o main ain a iendship wi h he Empe o o he Sea (English
Empe o ) in he sou h. Bu he is e y cle e . He is occupying Hindus an. He is eyeing he
plane a ea (o Nepal also). When Hindus ani (Indian) people will wake up (no ole a e
hem), he may ind i di icul o s ay he e. He migh ha e been sea ching o a sa e o and
he e is e e y possibili y ha he may come he e a any day (P.N. Shah, 1774, Di yopadesh,
ansla ion Nepal Law Commission 2018: 9).
None heless, P.N. Shah’s guidance o his successo s was ha Nepal should e ain
om ca ying ou o ensi e ac s agains he ‘English Empe o ’ and ha any igh ing
agains he B i ish should be de ensi e (Shaha 1978: 104). His legacy guided Nepal’s
o eign policy o a long ime. Fo many yea s, Nepal ollowed a policy o physical
44 The e is no consensus on whe he P.N. Shah’s policy o mili a y conques and annexa ion o o he
p incipali ies was me ely an expansionis p ojec o an a emp o euni y Nepal, which was agmen ed in o
small p incipali ies. Some schola s ha e a gued ha Nepal was al eady as big as p esen -day Nepal du ing he
Liccha i pe iod and ha P.N. Shah’s mo i e was o euni y he old Nepal (see, o ins ance, Acha ya 2005).
O he s a gue ha P.N. Shah was mo i a ed by an expansionis u ge and he desi e o become a king o a big
s a e, and euni ying he old Nepal was no his p ima y in e es . Some also sugges ha he o ma ion o mode n
Nepal was d i en by P.N. Shah’s ealisa ion ha unless he e was a ela i ely bigge and s onge s a e, he
B i ish India/Eas India Company would gobble up small p incipali ies in he sou h and China in he no h.
45 His o ical accoun s show ha Na a Bhupal wan ed o expand his kingdom by annexing Nuwako and o he
p incipali ies in he icini y. Howe e , a e being aced wi h a humilia ing de ea in Nuwako , he abandoned
his expansionis ambi ion and ins ead decided o li e he li e o a eligious de o ee. A e Na a Bhupal died in
1742, P i h i Na ayan ascended o he h one a age 20 and immedia ely s a ed making plans o con inuing
his a he ’s d eam, i.e., o expand he Kingdom o Go kha. See, o ins ance, Whelp on (2005) o a de ailed
o e iew o Nepal’s p e-mode n and mode n his o y.
46 The English ansla ion o he wo d Di yopadesh, p o ided by The Nepal Law Commission, is ‘celes ial
eaching.’ Some au ho s ha e also ansla ed i in o English as ‘di ine eaching’ o ‘di ine counsel’. P.N. Shah
deli e ed hese eachings as p a achana (discou ses) epo edly du ing he las week o Decembe 1774.
Teachings in Diy opadesh include a wide ange o subjec s, including o eign policy, eligion, economic
p ac ices, and de ence policies. Fo mo e in o ma ion, see, o ins ance, Acha ya & Yogi (2013), and o he
English ansla ion o he documen , see Nepal Law Commission (2018).
85
isola ion as a su i al s a egy (Has a 1970). This mean he exclusion o o eigne s
and o eign powe s (A ique 1983: 97). To compensa e o he losses o his
‘isola ionis ’ s a egy, sel -de e mina ion and sel - eliance we e p omo ed, which,
acco ding o Ka le (2008: 139), can be conside ed a pos colonial esponse o Nepal.
A leas in p inciple, ‘neu ali y’ and ‘non-alignmen ’ ha e been impo an
pilla s o Nepal’s o eign policy, and hey con inue o emain so.47 Among o he
easons, he geo-s a egic loca ion o Nepal— he ac ha i is sandwiched be ween
wo gian Asian powe s, India and China—and con inuous poli ical ins abili y in he
coun y ha e led Nepal o adop such policies (Ba al 2018: 25). Nepal's o icial ex s
on o eign policy ha e consis en ly emphasised ‘neu ali y’ and ‘non-alignmen ’ as
key p inciples. Howe e , in p ac ice, Nepal's p oximi y o India and India’s
in luence in Nepal ha e always been signi ican . I will b ie ly explo e his issue in
his chap e and discuss i in de ail in la e chap e s.
A e P. N. Shah’s dea h, his successo s con inued he expansion p ojec unde
he leade ship o his younge son, Bahadu Shah. By 1815, he Kingdom o Nepal
ex ended o he No h Indian e i o ies o Kumaon and Ga wal in he wes and
Sikkim in he eas (Landon 1928: 67–69, Rose & Scholz 1980, P adhan 2009).
Nepal’s ela ions wi h Tibe escala ed o e ade ou es and he quali y o coppe
coins supplied om Nepal. As a esul , in 1788, Nepal in aded Tibe (Upadhya
2012: 22–23). A se ies o ski mishes con inued be ween he wo coun ies, and
Tibe sough help om China48 o quell Nepali agg ession. China came o Tibe ’s
escue and p o ided massi e mili a y suppo . In 1792, he T ea y o Be awa i was
signed, and Nepali o ces e ea ed om Tibe (Landon 1928, Upadhya 2012: 26).
In he sou h, Nepal was a odds wi h he Eas India Company as he dispu e o e
con olling s a es ha bo de ed Nepal moun ed. The ussle be ween he wo led o
he Anglo–Nepali Wa (1815–16), in which bo h pa ies bo e hea y losses. The wa
ended wi h he Sugauli T ea y, due o which Nepal los mo e han one- hi d o i s
e i o ies o he B i ish Eas India Company (see Rose 1971).
The o ma ion o a uni ied Nepali s a e and i s expansion did no b ing abou
posi i e changes in he li es o he Nepali people. The Shah kings p e e ed
Ka hmandu o e Go kha as Nepal's capi al; hus, Ka hmandu became he new
powe cen e o Nepal. The new and 'uni ied' Nepal did no mo e owa ds
inclusi i y, social p og ess, o de elopmen , bu was cha ac e ised by widesp ead
co up ion, nepo ism, and he powe s uggles o a hand ul o Ka hmandu-based
eli es ha cap u ed he en i e s a e mechanism o hei pe sonal bene i . Basne
(2009: 14) no es ha he pos -uni ica ion pe iod ma ked ‘ he beginning o unequal
powe imbalance in he coun y whe eby con ol o e land and poli ical powe was
monopolised by a agmen ed eli e, cen alised by he s a e’.
47 As o Sep embe 2024, he Minis y o Fo eign A ai s o Nepal s a es ha he ollowing p inciples guide
Nepal's o eign policy: 1. Mu ual espec o each o he ’s e i o ial in eg i y and so e eign y, 2. Non-
in e e ence in each o he ’s in e nal a ai s, 3. Respec o mu ual equali y, 4. Non-agg ession and he peace ul
se lemen o dispu es, 5. Coope a ion o mu ual bene i , 6. Abiding ai h in he Cha e o he Uni ed Na ions,
7. Value o wo ld peace (MOFAN 2024).
48 Tibe was annexed by China in 1951, and un il hen, i unc ioned as an independen s a e. Howe e ,
whe he Tibe was independen is deba ed, as he Chinese go e nmen and he Tibe an go e nmen in exile had
hei own e sions o i s independen s a us be o e 1951. Fo mo e on his, see, o ins ance, Golds ein &
Rimpoche (1989).
86
4.1.1 The Rana Rule (1846–1951)
A e he uni ica ion o Nepal in 1768, he beginning o he Rana oliga chy in 1846
is pe haps he mos signi ican u ning poin in Nepal's his o y. In 1846, Jung
Bahadu Kunwa 49, a oyal bodygua d, and his b o he s massac ed a ound 29
s a esmen in he no o ious Ko Massac e50 and go hemsel es high- anking
adminis a i e and mili a y pos s. In he a e ma h o he Ko Massac e, Jung
Bahadu became P ime Minis e and he Commande -in-Chie o he a my. All
o he high- anking and in luen ial pos s wen o his b o he s and cousins (Joshi &
Rose 1966: 29–31). Jung Bahadu o ches a ed ye ano he massac e, he
Bhanda khal Massac e51, and u he consolida ed his powe . The posi ion o P ime
Minis e became he edi a y and was passed on o his descendan s. The Shah kings
became powe less igu eheads, wi h hei mo emen s and daily ac i i ies closely
moni o ed and con olled by he Ranas. Jung Bahadu ’s decisions p e ailed in bo h
domes ic and in e na ional a ai s. By 1872, he had success ully gained ecogni ion
o his egime om Nepal's wo majo neighbou ing powe s, India and China
(Pandey 1973: 61).
The Rana oliga chy las ed o 104 yea s and is conside ed he da kes pe iod in
Nepal’s his o y. The en i e s a e appa a us was exploi ed o he bene i o he Ranas
o o e a cen u y. The g ie ances o o dina y Nepalis wen unhea d and neglec ed.
I is es ima ed ha he Rana P ime Minis e s used anywhe e be ween 25% o 50%
o o al s a e e enue o pe sonal bene i s (Kuma 1967). The Rana oliga chy uled
by supp essing and sys ema ically subjuga ing o dina y Nepalis, ea ing he
coun y as i i we e hei p i a e en e p ise. Unsu p isingly, many o Nepal’s
esou ces we e used o hei p i a e use. Fo ins ance, by 1950, me ely h ee
p ominen Rana amilies had accumula ed 227,105 ac es o land—app oxima ely
42.5% o he o al cul i a ed Bi a land in he plains o Nepal (Regmi 1971).
Jung Bahadu and his successo s exploi ed he i s and di isions among he
mona chical ac ions o consolida e powe o hemsel es. In addi ion, Jung
Bahadu consolida ed his g ip on powe and p omo ed his image as an absolu e
au ho i y by waging wa on Tibe 52 in 1855 (Pandey 1973: 57–58) and success ully
in e p e ing i s ou come in his a ou . In addi ion, he sough a ini y wi h he
B i ish ule s in India while neglec ing China, a declining powe a ha ime
(Lohani 2011: 3). In 1857, as up isings agains he ule o he B i ish Eas India
Company in India b oke ou , Jung Bahadu and his b o he , Gene al Dhi
Shamshe , led Nepali oops and wen o India o help he B i ish ule s in
49 Jung Bahadu Kunwa , who la e secu ed he i le o Rana, came om a p ominen amily in Go kha.
His o ical accoun s show ha he was an ambi ious, sh ewd and u hless man who did no hesi a e o mu de
e en his ela i es o powe . Fo an elabo a e analysis o how Jung Bahadu ose o p ominence, see, o
ins ance, Pandey (1973) and Adhika i (1984).
50 The Ko Massac e occu ed in 1856 and is conside ed o be one o he bloodies massac es in Nepal’s
his o y. A e Queen Rajya Laxmi’s close con idan and umou ed lo e , Gagan Singh, was mys e iously killed,
a high-p o ile mee ing o oyal counsels was o ganised a he Ko o hun o his kille . As chaos escala ed, Jung
Bahadu and his b o he s an a killing sp ee. Tha day, mo e han 30 high- anking pe sonali ies we e killed,
including P ime Minis e Fa eh Jung Shah, se e al minis e s, and some op a my pe sonnel. Fo mo e on he
Ko massac e, see, o ins ance, Vaidya (2000).
51 The Bhanda khal massac e ook place in 1806, in which mo e han 93 high-p o ile people we e killed a
he Hanuman Dhoka palace’s Bhanda khal ga den. Fo mo e, see, o ins ance, Pandey (1973) o Ka macha ya
(2005).
52 The wa concluded wi h he T ea y o Thapa hali (1856), unde which Nepal would be esponsible i he e
had been any ex e nal a ack on Tibe (Sahu 2015: 198). The wa appa en ly ended due o mu ual exhaus ion,
bu Jung Bahadu was success ul in p ojec ing he end o he wa as Nepal's ic o y, hus u he consolida ing
his poli ical image in Nepal.
87
supp essing he ebellion (Hibbe 1978: 358, Tyagi 1974: 80–81). They success ully
sabo aged he up isings in India, and he jubilan B i ish Eas India Company
ewa ded Jung Bahadu by e u ning a pa o he land53 ha Nepal had ceded o
B i ish India a e he Anglo–Nepalese Wa . This success u he solidi ied Jung
Bahadu 's absolu e au ho i y in Nepal. The e was no one o challenge his powe ,
and peace eigned in he coun y. Howe e , ‘ ha was he peace o he g a e’ (Pandey
1973: 59–60).
The Rana ule s ocused on pleasing he ule s o India and kep Nepal in
comple e da kness o o e a cen u y. They c ippled and s agna ed Nepal's economy
and kep he ins i u ion o mona chy wi hin he ou walls o he oyal palace. E en
hough he B i ish Eas India Company did no a emp o colonise Nepal a e he
Anglo–Nepalese Wa , i conside ed Nepal a bu e s a e agains China and he
USSR and in eg a ed Nepal in o i s secu i y pa ame e s (Adhika i e al. 2013: 4). As
a legacy om hei colonial ule s, pos -colonial Indian ule s con inued his
p ac ice. Nepal’s dependence on B i ish India g ew subs an ially du ing he Rana
ule. Nepali you hs s a ed o be ec ui ed as Gu kha soldie s in he B i ish–India
a my. Nepal elied hea ily on B i ish India, among o he s, o o eign ade and
in e na ional a el (Bha a ai 2005: 20). All hese ac o s, along wi h he e en ual
all o he B i ish Raj in India in 1947, inspi ed a democ a ic mo emen in Nepal.
This also led o India’s inc eased engagemen in Nepal, which I will b ie ly discuss
in he nex sec ion.
4.1.2 Dawn o Democ acy (1950–1960)
In 1936, a small g oup o Nepali ac i is s o med a poli ical g oup named P aja
Pa ishad54 wi h he aim o plo ing a e olu ion and o e h owing he Ranas.
Howe e , in 1943, a plan o assassina e leading membe s o he Rana egime was
exposed. As a esul , membe s o he Pa ishad we e a es ed and execu ed, wi h
hei bodies displayed publicly o de e dissen . This ac back i ed on he egime,
and dissa is ac ion agains he Ranas g ew (B own 2002: 16).
Nepalis who we e li ing in exile in India pa icipa ed in he Indian s uggle o
independence, while aspi ing o libe a e Nepal om he Ranas. Fo many Nepali
poli ical ac i is s, Indian leade s igh ing agains he Raj we e ole models. The
B i ish Raj had been c ucial o he sus enance o he Rana egime in Nepal (Basne
2009: 15), and he all o he Raj was de imen al o he su i al o he Ranas in
Nepal. Nepali in ellec uals in exile in India and a g oup o disg un led Ranas—who
had been sidelined wi hin he Rana hie a chy—we e ac i ely in ol ed in waging an
an i-Rana mo emen . The an i-Rana mo emen gained momen um in 1947 when
he Nepali Na ional Cong ess (NNC) pa y was es ablished in India unde he
leade ship o B.P. Koi ala55 (Rose 1971: 183). Two yea s la e , in 1949, he
Communis Pa y o Nepal was o med in Calcu a, India, unde he leade ship o
Pushpa Lal Sh es ha (Gu ung 1977: 1850). Bo h pa ies sough o end he
opp essi e Rana oliga chy in Nepal and we e inspi ed by and ecei ed suppo om
an i-Raj mo emen s in India.
Nepali poli ical ac i is s li ing in exile in India no only campaigned o
democ acy in Nepal bu also ac i ely pa icipa ed in he Indian independence
53 Fou dis ic s o oday's Nepal—Banke, Ba diya, Kailali and Kanchanpu —we e e u ned o Nepal as a
ewa d o suppo ing he B i ish in supp essing he Indian ebellion o 1857.
54 P aja Pa ishad can be loosely ansla ed in o English as he People's Founda ion o People’s Fede a ion.
55 Tanka P asad Acha ya was appoin ed as he P esiden o he pa y. Howe e , he Ranas imp isoned
Acha ya in Ka hmandu, which made B.P. Koi ala he de ac o leade o he pa y.
94
su e ed unp eceden ed se backs, wha made i possible o Nepal’s Maois s o ise
as a s ong poli ical o ce, command an insu gency, and ul ima ely— hough
h ough a peace p ocess— ise as Nepal’s new ule s? The e a e no easy answe s o
hese ques ions, and an exhaus i e analysis o he Maois a med con lic is beyond
he scope o his s udy. Howe e , i is use ul o e iew a ew majo wo ks ha shed
ligh on po en ial causes o Nepal’s Maois insu gency and he easons behind he
success i enjoyed in Nepal. In addi ion, India’s con adic o y engagemen wi h
Nepal’s poli ical o ces du ing he insu gency has been he subjec o much deba e
and specula ion. The e o e, add essing his issue, e en b ie ly, is essen ial and
ele an o his s udy.
W i ing in 1998, wo yea s a e he insu gency began, Babu am Bha a ai,69 one
o he senio -mos Maois ideologues, blamed India o Nepal's unde de elopmen
and a gued ha India kep Nepal in semi-colonial bondage (see Bha a ai 1998). He
a gued ha India p e en ed he de elopmen o na ional capi al in Nepal, eyed i s
na u al esou ces, and imposed exploi a i e and opp essi e beha iou h ough
unequal ea ies and ag eemen s. To b eak he chains o his semi-colonial s a us,
he concluded, he Maois s’ People's Wa was launched. While blaming India o
e e y hing ha happens in Nepal has i s pi alls, Bha a ai’s a gumen s a e no
en i ely baseless. W i ing yea s be o e Bha a ai did, Blaikie e al. (1980) made a
case o a semi-colonial Nepal ha bo e he bu den o exploi a ion and dependence
in i s ela ionship wi h India. They also wa ned o an impending, la ge-scale
poli ical c isis in he coun y, which indeed la e ook place as hey had p edic ed.
Va ious s udies, conduc ed pa icula ly du ing he la e yea s o he a med
insu gency, ha e looked a domes ic causes o he Maois mo emen in Nepal. Such
s udies can be b oadly ca ego ised in o wo ypes: hose ha use echniques such as
c oss-sec ional eg ession o analyse how inequali y, po e y, geog aphy, and
e hnic o linguis ic di e ences con ibu ed o he insu gency. In con as , s udies o
he second ype o en emphasise he ailu es o pos -1990 go e nmen s in Nepal
and aise issues ela ed o con lic incen i es.
Fo ins ance, Mu shed & Ga es (2005) ound ha g ie ances, exp essed in
e hnic and cas e disc imina ion, landlessness, and o he inequali ies, we e he main
ca alys s o he Maois insu gency in Nepal. O he schola s, such as Thapa &
Sijapa i (2004), De aniyagala (2005), Boha a e al. (2006), Pa wez (2006),
Macou s (2006), Tiwa i (2009), Basne (2009), Do & Iye (2010), and Piya &
Maha jan (2009) came up wi h simila indings. De aniyagala (2005: 61), o
ins ance, a gued ha ‘a long his o y o ag icul u al s agna ion, inequali ies in land
owne ship, inadequa e in es men in human de elopmen and social and physical
in as uc u e and an ex ac i e and p eda o y s a e’ we e esponsible no only o
une en de elopmen and po e y, bu also o he a med con lic . In addi ion, she
no ed ha he Maois a med insu gency began du ing a pe iod o economic
libe alisa ion in Nepal, which no only agg a a ed al eady exis ing inequali ies, bu
also c ea ed new ones.
Using de ailed casual y da ase s, Do & Iye (2010) ound ha con lic - ela ed
dea hs we e signi ican ly highe in poo e dis ic s and moun ains, i.e. in a eas
a ou able o unning a gue illa mo emen . They indica ed ha po e y made
ec ui ing igh e s cheape o he insu gen s, bu a highe le el o po e y also
69 M Bha a ai was he second-mos senio pa y leade , headed he ebels’ 'people's go e nmen ' and
d a ed he pa y's ideological documen s. In 2015, when Nepal decla ed a new cons i u ion h ough a
cons i uen assembly, M Bha a ai decla ed enouncing he communis ideology, esigned om he Maois
pa y, and began o ming a new ‘non-communis ’ poli ical g oup unde his leade ship.
95
mean 'a g ea e le el o g ie ances agains he go e nmen ', and 'mo e suppo o
insu gen g oups' (p. 745). Indeed, he Maois s' s a egy was o use bo h he
moun ainous geog aphy and people's g ie ances. As Hachhe hu (2005: 138) s a es:
The Maois s’ in e nal pa y documen p epa ed be o e he launch o he a med s uggle
demons a es ha he ebels planned o capi alise on Nepal's moun ainous geog aphy as
well as on pe cei ed g ie ances o e hnic g oups, peasan s, Nepalis in u al a eas and in he
Indian diaspo a, who had o en been o go en by he s a e.
As in many o he ci il wa s, he Maois a med insu gency has also been iewed om
he ‘g eed e sus g ie ance’ pe spec i e. P oponen s o he g eed model70, who
mos ly seem o come om he mains eam economic adi ion, a gue ha ci il wa s
a e p ima ily ough no because o pe sis ing inequali ies o g ie ances, bu
because o po en ial inancial incen i es o ebel g oups. These models po ay
insu gencies as economic ac i i ies a he han ac ions o ien ed owa ds pu suing
ideological o poli ical goals. In an a emp o analyse Nepal’s a med con lic om
his pe spec i e, Acha ya (2009: 17), o ins ance, a gues ha he ebel leade s and
hei subo dina e soldie s engaged in a con ac ual ela ionship (akin o ha o
employe s and employees) and he insu gency su i ed as long as he 'ope a ing
cos s' emained low. He concluded ha he Maois a med insu gency in Nepal did
no 'appea o be linked in any causal way o g ie ances, social ac o s o e en
ideology. I was incen i es ha ma e ed mos ’ (p. 18).
Howe e , many o he a gumen s p esen ed by schola s who suppo he g eed
model do no appea o apply o he si ua ion in Nepal. Fi s , he a gumen ha he
ebels joined he insu gency me ely o economic easons is implausible. As a as
hei pe sonal sa e y was conce ned, being pa o a gue illa mo emen was a isky
decision o he insu gen s. The emune a ion hey ecei ed as a ebel soldie would
be much less han wha hey could ha e ea ned by joining he go e nmen secu i y
o ces o , in a despe a e si ua ion, selling hei manual labou in India. In addi ion,
hese economic models ail o ecognise ha an insu gency is much mo e han
ec ui ing mili an s and igh ing one success ul ba le a e ano he . As e iden in
Nepal’s case, many people who joined he Maois mo emen —be i pa y cad es
engaged in non-comba i e wo k, women g oups, s uden s, peasan s, and many
o he s— ecei ed no emune a ion. I is also wo h highligh ing ha comba an s a e
pa o an insu gency, and hough hei ole migh be impo an , i is no always he
mos c ucial one.
Ano he sho coming o he g eed model, which does no make sense in Nepal’s
case, is ha hey see a med insu gencies a ge ed a con olling loo able esou ces.
They o en a gue ha insu gencies do no p og ess when a luc a i e na u al
esou ce is absen . To suppo his claim, hey o en ci e examples o he so-called
blood mine als om A ica, A ghanis an’s opium, and he widesp ead d ug
p oduc ion and smuggling in con lic - idden La in Ame ican coun ies. Howe e ,
his was no he case in Nepal. The e was no ‘loo able esou ce’ in Nepal ha he
ebels could ha e con olled and bene i ed om. Ins ead, he Maois mo emen
elied hea ily on olun a y dona ions and inances om a ious ex o ion. In o he
wo ds, he insu gency pe se was no aimed a con olling o bene i ing om a
luc a i e na u al esou ce.
Finding he oo causes o a con lic is di icul , as con lic s begin o a ange o
easons. In Nepal's case, oo, i can be a gued ha he Maois a med con lic was a
70 See, o ins ance, Collie & Hoe le (1998) and Collie & Hoe le (2004) o an in-dep h unde s anding o
he ‘g eed’ model.
96
esul o se e al causes, including po e y and unde de elopmen (Thapa & Sijapa i
2004), social exclusion o ce ain mino i ies and e hnic g oups (Gu ung 2007,
Lawo i 2005), go e nmen supp ession o he le is poli ical ac i i ies in he
Midwes e n egion (Acha ya 2009: 7), inequali ies in land owne ship, and social
chasms c ea ed by pos -1990 economic libe alisa ion (De aniyagala 2005). Finally,
an unequal ela ionship and deep dependency on i s sou he n neighbou , India,
also ca alysed he con lic (Bha a ai 1998).
O e all, he Maois a med insu gency exp essed he widesp ead us a ion o
people in he pos -1990s. A e a long and di icul s uggle, democ acy was
ees ablished in Nepal in 1990, and o dina y Nepalis had high hopes in he new
sys em. Howe e , hese expec a ions we e sha e ed as mains eam poli ical pa ies
ha ose o powe ollowing he democ a ic mo emen became en angled in
ongoing powe s uggles. They ailed o ocus on sol ing he p oblems o he people.
The g ie ances o his o ically ma ginalised and opp essed communi ies we e ne e
adequa ely add essed.
Some schola s ha e aised he issue o us a ion and unme expec a ions as
po en ial igge s o he con lic . Fo ins ance, Pa wez (2006) and Fujiku a (2003)
a gued ha a highe le el o educa ion in a democ a ic en i onmen aised people's
expec a ions. Howe e , he lack o economic oppo uni ies engende ed public
us a ion and ul ima ely led o e ol and iolence. Simila ly, Tiwa i (2009: 24)
p oposed ha he insu gency was caused by a ‘misma ch’ be ween poli ical and
economic empowe men , because an equal le el o economic empowe men did no
accompany inc eased poli ical empowe men in he pos -1990 e a. In a simila
spi i , Shneide man e al. (2016: 2042) a gue ha he Maois con lic should be
conside ed me ely a single elemen in a much b oade p ocess o ans o ma ion
ha Nepal was going h ough. These ans o ma i e elemen s, hey highligh ,
included democ a isa ion, iden i y poli ics, mig a ion, s a e es uc u ing, and he
eme gence o a emi ance economy.
These explana ions appea mo e plausible han hose ying o squeeze he
con lic wi hin he oddly c a ed g eed- e sus-g ie ances con inuum. As I
men ioned a he beginning o his chap e , he Maois a med insu gency was a
dis up i e poli ical e en ha eme ged when Nepal was going h ough a signi ican
socio-poli ical ans o ma ion. I is also wo h no ing ha he insu gency's
incep ion happened in a pa icula poli ical con ex . Howe e , as he insu gency
p og essed, some elemen s71—such as he poli ical ins abili y, co up ion, and he
oyal massac e o 2001—helped i become wha i la e became: a ull- ledged ci il
wa -like con lic . The la e yea s o he insu gency we e pa icula ly ma ked by daily
ins ances o iolence, nume ous casual ies, and he go e nmen 's g adual loss o
e i o ial and adminis a i e con ol.
4.2.2 Cos o he Con lic
The decade-long Maois a med insu gency was he bloodies and mos iolen
71 Poli ical empowe men and he shi in people's consciousness in he pos -1990 democ a ic e a was
ce ainly one elemen ha made he Maois a med insu gency possible. Howe e , o he poli ical e en s also
acili a ed i s g ow h and i s ul ima e sp ead. These e en s include he 2001 oyal massac e (when Nepal's King,
Queen, and o he p ominen membe s o he oyal amily we e sho and killed), a con used go e nmen ha
lacked he poli ical will and skills o deal wi h he insu gency when i was nascen , widesp ead i and di isions
wi hin he mains eam poli ical pa ies, and India’s nonchalan app oach owa ds he Maois ebels aking
shel e in i s land. In la e yea s, he insu gency in ensi ied mainly due o he ep essi e app oach aken by King
Gyanend a, who e used o ecognise he a med insu gency as a poli ical issue and agged he ebels as e o is s
who had los hei way. He also sough in e na ional suppo o ep ess and de ea he ebels by o ce.
97
episode in Nepal's mode n his o y. In e ms o human li es ha we e los and he
physical damage and des uc ion i caused, he con lic was o immense scale. The
a med con lic also le a deep sca in Nepal’s social ab ic ha will ake decades o
heal. Acco ding o he igu es eleased by Nepal’s Minis y o Peace and
Recons uc ion (2013), in o al, he insu gency ook a leas 17,886 li es.72 Mo e
han 3,000 people we e abduc ed, and nea ly 1,600 people disappea ed du ing he
iolen decade (1996–2006). In addi ion, nea ly 9,000 people we e le maimed
and disabled, and he numbe o displaced people s ood a a ound 80,000.73
In e ms o physical damage, he con lic was equally des uc i e. I is es ima ed
ha nea ly 17,500 indi idual p ope ies we e des oyed du ing he con lic
(Minis y o Peace and Recons uc ion, Nepal 2013). In addi ion, in an a emp o
weaken he s a e, he Maois ebels adop ed an undecla ed policy o des oying
public p ope y. As a esul , mo e han 2,000 schools and nea ly 4,000 public
o ices we e demolished du ing he con lic (Ghimi e 2013). The insu gen s also
des oyed b idges, bu ned down elec ici y plan s, and demolished go e nmen
in as uc u e.
The con lic nega i ely a ec ed economic ac i i ies, hampe ed economic
g ow h, and was undoub edly a se e e blow o Nepal's ledgling pos -1990
economy. Fo ins ance, he GDP g ow h a e du ing he ea ly 1990s s ood a a ound
5%. Howe e , as he con lic p og essed and peaked du ing he ea ly 2000s, he
GDP g ow h sh ank sha ply, a e aging ba ely 2.5% pe annum (Na ional Planning
Commission o Nepal 2003, De aniyagala 2005: 57). The con lic had mul isec o al
impac s and badly a ec ed i al sec o s o Nepal's economy, such as ou ism,
ag icul u e, indus y and comme ce.
The a med con lic also al e ed Nepal’s social and demog aphic s uc u e. In
sea ch o sa e y, people s a ed mo ing om illages o ci ies, some o hem chased
o by he ebels and agged as ‘class enemies’. Hi ha d by he unce ain y and
unemploymen he a med con lic b ough , many Nepali you hs s a ed mig a ing
ab oad—mainly o Middle Eas e n and Eas Asian coun ies— o sell menial labou .
As yea s passed, he mig a ion end in ensi ied, ul ima ely changing he Nepali
economy's en i e ou look. Nepal’s economy g adually shi ed om being p ima ily
an ag icul u al economy o a emi ance economy.74 Pos -con lic Nepal has a new
economic ace, and so does i s demog aphy. The apid in e na ional mig a ion o
Nepali you hs has caused emendous demog aphic and social changes, whose
long- e m impac s a e ye o be seen.
As epo ed in a ious s udies,75 he con lic also le a huge psychological impac
on o dina y Nepalis. Killing, abduc ion, o u e, a bi a y a es s, ape, and he use
o child soldie s we e common wa s a egies adop ed bo h by he ebels and
go e nmen secu i y o ces.76 As he con lic in ensi ied, especially in he la e
yea s, child en's igh s, women’s igh s, and o dina y people’s economic, social, and
72 This igu e is dispu ed, as some o he es ima ions show he casual ies o be highe o lowe han his one.
73 While mos people we e in e nally displaced, some managed o lea e Nepal o employmen in India o
Gul coun ies. Some also sough asylum in a ious Wes e n coun ies.
74 In 1996, he yea he con lic began, he p opo ion o emi ances in Nepal’s GDP was me ely 0.97%. As
he a med con lic in ensi ied, he e was a sha p inc ease in he numbe o Nepali you hs a elling ab oad o
o eign employmen . By 2006, he yea he con lic ended, he p opo ion o emi ances in he GDP was
16.06%, which u he ose o 31.20% in 2016 (Wo ld Bank 2019).
75 See, o ins ance, Thapa & Hau (2005), Tol e al. (2010), and Koh e al. (2012) o ge a de ailed o e iew
o he psychological and emo ional impac bo ne by o dina y Nepalis because o he Maois a med insu gency.
76 Fo an elabo a e analysis o con lic - ela ed iola ions o in e na ional human igh s law and in e na ional
humani a ian law be ween Feb ua y 1996 and 21 No embe 2006, see, o ins ance, OHCHR (2012).
98
cul u al igh s we e se e ely comp omised (Khanal 2017). In addi ion, since
ansi ional jus ice issues and econcilia ion p ocesses we e la gely o e looked in
he yea s ollowing he CPA, a cul u e o impuni y h i ed in pos -con lic Nepal
(Je e y 2017, Adhika i e al. 2014). Ha ing been inspi ed by he Maois insu gency
and he poli ical gains and spo ligh i had ecei ed, Nepal also wi nessed a ise and
p oli e a ion o o he small a med g oups, which pe pe ua ed he cul u e o
iolence also in he pos -insu gency yea s.77
4.3 Loca ing India’s Role in Nepal’s Peace P ocess and Poli ical
T ansi ion (2005–2017): A Re iew o P e ious Resea ch
As he Maois a med insu gency eme ged as a o midable o ce in Nepal in he ea ly
2000s, academic in e es in i also g ew. Ini ially, schola ly in e es was mainly
limi ed o analysing he o igins o he con lic and es ima ing i s po en ial ou comes
(see, o ins ance, Ka ki & Seddon 2003, Thapa & Sijapa i 2004, Hu 2004).
Howe e , in la e yea s, wi h he onse o he peace p ocess, academic ocus also
began o shi . Mo e a en ion was gi en o b oade peacebuilding issues, including
cons i u ion-making, s a e es uc u ing, inclusi i y, de elopmen , and he he o ic
o building a 'new Nepal'.
The ole o in e na ional ac o s in he Nepali con lic was analysed du ing he
con lic and also in he a e ma h. When i comes o Nepal's peace p ocess, India
has always been he elephan in he oom. O he in e na ional ac o s, such as he
US, he UK, China, he EU, and se e al o he in e na ional o ganisa ions, we e
p esen , on and o , in he scene. Howe e , as Jha (2012: 332) a gues, hey we e
mos ly esponsible o paying he bills o he peace p ocess. In con as , India had
he s onges p esence and ul ima ely ecei ed mos o he c edi o he ela i ely
success ul peace p ocess (see Chap e 5).
E en hough s udies on in e na ional engagemen in Nepal's peace p ocess and
poli ical ansi ion ha e cen ed a ound India, India's ole in Nepal's peace p ocess
and poli ical ansi ion emains a poo ly unde s ood opic. Fo ins ance, Subedi &
Bha a ai (2017: 95) a gue ha India’s engagemen in Nepal’s peace p ocess also
needs u he s udy because India’s ole has been bo h ‘unclea and ques ionable’.
P e ious li e a u e ha deals wi h India's engagemen in Nepal's peace p ocess
and poli ical ansi ion can be b oadly ca ego ised in o h ee. Wo ks ha assess
India’s in ol emen du ing he a med insu gency—be o e he 12-Poin
Unde s anding and he CPA—p o ide c ucial his o ical insigh s in o how India
became a majo playe in Nepal’s con lic esolu ion scene. Second, s udies ocusing
on India's in ol emen du ing he c ucial yea s o he peace p ocess (i.e., be ween
2005 and 2008) a e impo an because hey p o ide insigh in o India's ac ual
in ol emen in ac i i ies leading up o he peace deal and i s immedia e a e ma h.
Thi d, s udies ha eme ged a e he ini ial yea s o he peace p ocess a e also
ele an because hey in es iga e India’s long- e m engagemen in he la e yea s o
poli ical ansi ion.
Schola s who ha e examined India’s app oach o he Maois insu gency in Nepal
gene ally ag ee ha India's ole du ing he insu gency was inconsis en and
con adic o y (see, o ins ance, Shah 2004, Mish a 2004, Bha a ai 2005,
Whelp on 2005, Whi ield 2008, Up e i 2009, Des adi 2010, Sha ma 2013,
Adhika i 2017, and Dhungel 2019: 24). While Nepal's no he n neighbou , China,
77 See, o ins ance, Thapa (2017) and Rawski (2009) o an o e iew o he a med g oups ha we e ac i e in
he wake o he Maois a med insu gency.
99
saw he use o he e m ‘Maois ’ as an insul o hei leade Mao Zedong, labelled
he Nepali Maois s as an 'an i-go e nmen ou i ', and ex ended no conc e e
suppo o hem (Upadhya 2012: 136), Nepal's sou he n neighbou , India ook a
di e en app oach. Despi e decla ing he Maois s a e o is g oup, India showed
li le o no in e es in cu bing hei ac i i ies in India (Bha a ai 2005: 34, Up e i
2009: 223). The Maois ebels no only ecei ed aining om a ious gue illa
g oups in India (Bha a ai 2005: 32), bu he op ebel leade s mos ly li ed in
a ious pa s o India78 and we e able o ope a e om he e wi h li le o no
es ic ion (Mish a 2004: 638).
In he la e yea s o he con lic , India con inued i s pa adoxical app oach as
in e nal pola isa ion in ensi ied among majo poli ical o ces in Nepal. On one
hand, i denounced King Gyanend a's di ec ule and ad oca ed o a ‘ win-pilla ’
poli ical sys em in Nepal (i.e., cons i u ional mona chy and mul ipa y democ acy).
On he o he hand, i also p o ided mili a y assis ance o Nepali secu i y o ces
igh ing he Maois s unde he King’s di ec command. Simila ly, i showed li le
in e es in Maois ac i i ies ha ook place in a ious pa s o India. Ins ead o
supp essing hei ac i i ies, India kep in ouch wi h he ebel leade s o a po en ial
coali ion-building be ween he Maois s and Nepal's mains eam poli ical pa ies
agi a ing agains King Gyanend a's ule (Des adi 2010: 18, Adhika i 2017: 32,
Sha ma 2013). This way, 'by suppo ing and supplying bo h sides o he ci il wa in
Nepal,’ Shah (2004: 223) a gued, India ‘pe ec ed he impe ial a o di ide and
ule’.
India's indi e ence owa ds he Maois s, howe e , was no unila e al. The
Maois s ecip oca ed by ca e ully a oiding ac i i ies ha in e e ed wi h India’s
in e es s.79 While he Maois s’ poli ical documen s we e iddled wi h an i-Indian
he o ic, in p ac ice, no hing ema kably an i-Indian ook place du ing he
insu gency. This disc epancy be ween he wo ds and ac ions o bo h India and he
Maois s has been used by some schola s (such as Shah 2004, Mish a 2004) o
ad ance he na a i e ha he Maois mo emen was po en ially a ploy employed
by India o weaken he Nepali s a e and, as a esul , o keep a mo e pliable egime
in Ka hmandu. In addi ion, Shah (2004: 202) wen on o a gue ha up isings and
insu gencies ha had no ex e nal backing did no su i e and h i e in Nepal, which
was no he case wi h he Maois a med insu gency.80
A gumen s like hese a e undoub edly use ul o ili ying bo h India and he
Maois s simul aneously. Such s a emen s ha e been a ou i es o oyalis s and
conspi acy heo is s, bo h inside and ou side Nepal. Howe e , mos o hese
a gumen s, such as he no ion ha he Maois insu gency was po en ially a o eign
ploy, lack e idence. In he absence o c edible e idence, such a gumen s se e no
pu pose and educe a la ge-scale a med insu gency o a pe y ploy o a nagging
78 While many op Maois leade s did li e in India h oughou he con lic , hey ha e denied any suppo om
he Indian es ablishmen . They ha e o en a gued ha since India is a as 'ocean' o people, i was no ha d o
hem o hide in Indian ci ies. This is bo h plausible as well as con adic o y. India, indeed, is a densely popula ed
coun y, and hiding in India would no be di icul . Howe e , gi en ha India has p o essional and well-
es ablished in elligence agencies, acking down o eign ebels would no be ha di icul , ei he . When willing
o do so, India did, o ins ance, un a c ackdown on Bhu anese dissiden s hiding in and ope a ing om India.
79 Fo ins ance, in 1998, when he Kalapani bo de dispu e be ween Nepal and India was a i s peak, many
poli ical pa ies in Nepal used ha as poli ical capi al and po ayed hemsel es as pa io s who did no gi e in
o Indian agg ession. The Maois s, howe e , chose o neglec he issue and we e absen om he scene
al oge he (Mish a 2004: 635).
80 Fo his, he used he examples o D K. I. Singh's ailed e ol in he wake o he 1950 Delhi Ag eemen , as
well as he sho -li ed and ailed a med campaign launched by a communis ac ion in eas e n Nepal in he
1970s.
100
neighbou . In addi ion, hey blun ly neglec and unde mine he social and poli ical
psyche o pos -1990 Nepal.
As al eady discussed, India ac ed in a con adic o y manne when i p o ided
an undecla ed ‘shel e ’ o he Maois s and supplied a ms and ammuni ion o Nepali
secu i y o ces loyal o he King. Howe e , ha does no mean ha he en i e
insu gency was a plo designed and implemen ed by New Delhi. As Nepali Maois
leade s o en end o a gue, hey we e simply using India o se e hei poli ical and
ac ical goals. India was likely doing he same, using he ebels o main ain i s
adi ional g ip on Nepal o o keep he coun y mildly uns able, as i has o en been
accused o doing in he pas . Fo New Delhi, he Maois s indeed se ed as a
ba gaining ool ha i could ac ully use in i s dealings wi h Ka hmandu. Using
opposing poli ical o ces as le e age in Nepal is an old habi o India, and a quick
look a Nepal's his o y shows his clea ly. Th oughou a ious junc u es in his o y,
India has u ilised nea ly all poli ical o ces in Nepal, including he adi ional
democ a ic pa ies, egional poli ical g oups, he Maois s, and he mona chy,
whene e necessa y.
The endency o label he Maois s as India’s pawns o o a gue ha New Delhi
plan ed and cul i a ed he Maois a med s uggle unde mines he Maois
mo emen 's ole in s ee ing Nepal owa ds a p og essi e pa h. Democ acy, he ule
o law, secula ism, and inclusi i y a e widely che ished ideals o con empo a y
Nepal. While one can be c i ical o o loa he he Maois s’ iolen poli ics, one canno
be obli ious o hei con ibu ion o shaping oday's Nepal, which is signi ican ly
mo e p og essi e, mo e democ a ic, and mo e p ospe ous han i has e e been.
The Maois mo emen made no only a poli ical con ibu ion, bu also a social one.
As Adhika i (2014: 275) pu s i , he ebels ‘ augh la ge sec ions o he popula ion
o o ganize and agi a e in he ace o injus ice, ins ead o quie ly accep ing hei
posi ion in he social hie a chy’.
The dubious ole ha India played du ing he Maois insu gency is well-known
and has been discussed in de ail by se e al schola s. Howe e , when i comes o
India's in ol emen in he backg ound nego ia ions ha led o he 12-Poin
Unde s anding, con usion pe sis s. This is also he case wi h India’s in ol emen in
he a e ma h o he 2006 peace deal.
In e es ingly, India’s in ol emen in Nepal’s peace p ocess was p edic ed e en
be o e he p ocess was concei ed, long be o e he signing o he 12-Poin
Unde s anding in New Delhi. W i ing a he peak o he a med con lic , Mish a
(2004: 646), o ins ance, no ed ha ‘any solu ion o he Maois p oblem mus
in ol e winning he hea s and minds o he Indian au ho i ies, pe haps mo e so
han winning he hea s and minds o he Maois s hemsel es’.
While Mish a’s (2004) a gumen s ce ainly appea o ha e been exagge a ed
and mo e p o oca i e han ealis ic, none heless, i was e iden ha some o m o
Indian in ol emen would be una oidable i a success ul peace p ocess was o be
implemen ed in Nepal. Some schola s, such as Bha a ai (2005: 35), also no ed ha
India was unhappy when i was no consul ed du ing he 2003 peace alks and ha
India was unwilling o see a hi d-pa y in ol emen , excep i s own, in an e en ual
peace p ocess ha would ake place in Nepal. Simila ly, a he dawn o he peace
p ocess, Up e i (2006: 207) w o e:
India does no wan o see any ou side being ac i e in [ he] Nepalese a med con lic .
Conside ing i sel as a egional powe , i wan s o handle all he issues a ising in Sou h Asia
i sel .
101
Simila p edic ions we e made conce ning India’s e en ual in ol emen in pos -
con lic Nepal. A yea a e he signing o he CPA, Janjua (2007: 86), o ins ance,
wa ned ha India’s in ol emen in pos -con lic Nepal would be an ac i e one and
ha India could e en pu p essu e on Nepali poli ical pa ies o appoin minis e s
o i s choice and implemen p o-Indian policies. As I explo e in subsequen
chap e s, hese p edic ions, mo e o less, came ue, and India's p esence in Nepal
apidly g ew in he peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion yea s.
Amid hese p edic ions and a ious un e i ied anecdo es ci cula ing in he
media, con usion emains o e India’s in ol emen in Nepal’s peace p ocess and
poli ical ansi ion. This con usion is con inuously e lec ed in wo ks ha ha e
eme ged a e he 2006 peace deal. Some schola s, such as Adhika i (2017: 32),
e m India's ole as an agg essi e one, while o he s ha e used somewha so e
ones. Some o he common e e ences, howe e , include e ming India’s
in ol emen as a ‘ acili a i e one’ (Des adi 2010:17, Sh es ha 2012: 211, Ghimi e
2018a: 6), he one ha p o ided ‘ aci suppo ’ (Whi ield 2008: 6), o a media o
ha ook on he job in ending o coe ce he ebels o shun a ms and o s ee hem
owa ds mains eam poli ics (Poudel 2018: 7). I has also been a gued ha he 12-
Poin -Unde s anding, which ske ched Nepal’s pos -con lic oadmap o peace and
democ acy, would no ha e been possible in he absence o India’s suppo
(Whi ield 2008: 6).
Ha ing e lec ed on India’s engagemen om he ea ly yea s o he con lic ,
Up e i (2009: 234) a gued ha among in e na ional ac o s, India’s p esence was
he mos ex ensi e, so much so ha , especially du ing he la e yea s, Nepal became
‘en i ely dependen on India’ o managing i s peace p ocess. As I will discuss in
subsequen chap e s, his s a e o dependency was no limi ed me ely o con lic
esolu ion. I had s e ched o o he domains, and some o he mos c i ical Nepali
s a e ins i u ions had become ic ims o India’s minu e manipula ion and massi e
mic omanagemen (see Chap e s 6 and 7).
O en u he ed by Indian schola s, he e a e also less c i ical, widely
oman icised, and o e ly op imis ic e sions o India’s engagemen in pos -con lic
Nepal. Meh a (2011), o ins ance, a gued ha agains he backd op o he con lic
and democ a ic mo emen , India had been ‘ e y ac i ely’ p omo ing democ acy in
Nepal. Simila ly, Janjua (2007: 101) claimed ha , hough ca ied ou wi h he
consen o he UK and he US, India's engagemen in pos -con lic Nepal aimed o
es ablish a ' ull- ledged' democ acy. H.B. Jha (2014: 57) a gued ha India had been
ac ing ou o i s passion o sa egua ding democ acy and ha , a imes, i s passion
o democ acy had been p o ed cos ly.
Howe e , he na a i e o India as a democ acy p omo e has been en i ely
ejec ed by o he schola s. Fo ins ance, Des adi (2010: 3) a gued ha India’s
engagemen in Nepal was guided by ‘sho - e m s abili y conce ns’ and could no
be conside ed o be an ac o democ acy p omo ion. In Bha a ai’s (2018: 13) wo ds,
India’s ac ions we e aimed a ‘ aking con ol o e decision-making p ocesses in
Nepal, and secu ing i s own sel -in e es s’. Simila ly, Ande son (2014: 11) a gued
ha India was mo i a ed by secu i y-o ien ed conce ns a he han a desi e o
ensu e a smoo h democ a ic p ocess in Nepal. India's use o he 'democ acy ca d',
howe e , is no su p ising as i has also done so in he pas o p omo e i s in e es s
in Nepal (H.B. Jha 2014: 57).
The issue o mo i e has also ecei ed some schola ly a en ion, and a he c ux
o i is he ques ion: Wha mo i e does India ha e o i s ex ensi e engagemen in
Nepal? This is a di icul ques ion, and he opic o India–Nepal ela ions is as as
as he his o y o he wo coun ies. Howe e , one hing is clea : India’s in e es s in
102
Nepal a e nume ous and o en complex. Whene e necessa y, India has employed
a ious o ms o he o ic, including democ acy p omo ion, peacebuilding,
de elopmen assis ance, and i s much- ou ed neighbou hood i s policy.
Re lec ing on India’s p e ious engagemen s in Nepal, Shah (2004: 201), o
ins ance, a gued ha India ha bou ed he habi o using i s democ a ic c eden ials
me ely o ‘gi e a mo al colou ing o i s ac s o economic and poli ical manipula ion
in Nepal’. A gumen s pu o wa d du ing he la e yea s o he poli ical ansi ion
echoed simila unde ones.
Re e ing o India’s engagemen in pos -con lic Nepal, Musachhio (2018: 40),
o ins ance, a gues ha , by ‘p esen ing democ acy h ough a discou se en ailing
de elopmen , New Delhi managed o co obo a e i s hegemony o e Nepal by
means o so powe ’. He u he a gues ha India po ayed i s image as a
democ acy-p omo e in an a emp o achie e i s o eign policy in e es s, which
included os e ing i s bila e al ies wi h he Uni ed S a es81, p e en ing a po en ial
sp ead o Maois insu gency in India, and secu ing a conduci e en i onmen o
implemen ing p ojec s wi h he economic in e es s o India. While a gumen s
sugges ing India's hegemonic endencies may be plausible, he e is a lack o de ailed
analysis on how hese endencies a e execu ed on he g ound. In addi ion, as I show
in he nex wo chap e s, India’s sel -po ayal was no limi ed o exhibi ing i sel as
a democ acy p omo e . I was enamou ed wi h i s eme ging epu a ion as a
o midable ac o in in e na ional media ion and peacebuilding—an iden i y i
sough o cul i a e as pa o i s global p o ile o ad ance i s b oade ambi ions on
he wo ld s age.
Al hough limi ed, he e ha e been some a emp s o explo e India’s in ol emen
du ing he peace nego ia ion phase, i s a e ma h, and he la e yea s o he peace
p ocess and poli ical ansi ion. O e he las wo decades, India has become a
luc a i e gen e in Nepal's non- ic ion publishing scene. I s ac ions in Nepal, bo h
ac ual and pe cei ed, ha e become popula subjec s ha simul aneously e oke ea ,
anxie y, and specula ion. Unsu p isingly, books abou India’s p esence in Nepal
achie ed emendous comme cial success in he g owing book ma ke o pos -
con lic Nepal. Howe e , his has also led o some d awbacks. En iced by he
po en ial o p o i , some au ho s ha e p oduced wo ks ha ely hea ily on
unsubs an ia ed anecdo es and conspi acy heo ies.
A ew au ho s, especially Nepali in es iga i e jou nalis s such as Sha ma (2013),
Adhika i (2012), and P. Jha (2014), appea o ha e made a since e a emp o
in es iga e and analyse India’s engagemen in pos -con lic Nepal. Thei wo k, o a
ce ain deg ee, demons a es India’s ex ensi e engagemen in pos -con lic Nepal,
which was no only a ec ing Nepal’s e e yday poli ics, bu also g adually weakening
Nepal’s so e eign y. These wo ks come ac oss as o e ly jou nalis ic and depend
hea ily on de ailed desc ip ions o e e yday poli ical e en s. In sho , hey lack
c i ical pe spec i es and an academic one, o en missing connec ions o ele an
heo e ical concep s. This s udy aims o b idge ha gap by linking heo y wi h
p ac ice h ough an induc i e p ocess while also making a heo e ical con ibu ion.
Though success ul only in pa , a ew schola s a emp ed o in es iga e he issue
mo e igo ously and wi h a c i ical academic one. Adhika i (2014), o ins ance,
o e ed ins ances o Indian mic omanagemen in pos -con lic Nepal. His accoun
includes how Indian embassy o icials in Ka hmandu we e engaged in nego ia ing
pos -con lic poli ical deals and 'con aining’ he Maois s. Simila ly, Jha (2012)
a emp s o p o ide wha he calls a 'Nepali pe spec i e' on in e na ional
81 Among o he s, h ough an an i- e o ism coali ion-building.
103
in ol emen in Nepal be ween 2005 and 2010 by co e ing c ucial poli ical e en s
ha occu ed in ha pe iod. His assessmen helps us unde s and how di e en
in e na ional ac o s we e in ol ed in Nepal's peace p ocess du ing i s c ucial phase.
Though his ocus is no exclusi ely on India, he success ully po ays he uneasiness
and con usion among Nepali s akeholde s ega ding India's in ol emen . The way
India's in ol emen was ecei ed and in e p e ed in Nepal is ano he i al issue he
aises. He s a es:
Mona chis s, sec ions o he mili a y, and es ablished pa liamen a y pa ies claim ha Delhi
p o ided he Maois s wi h a sa e ha en du ing he wa , go hem o Ka hmandu, des oyed
he mona chy, and e ec ed egime change. O he s p aise India o helping end he wa (Jha
2012: 333).
Simila ly, Whi ield (2008) co e ed a ious poli ical e en s be ween 2000 and
2008, a ime span ha co e s ea ly dialogue p omo ion o he i s cons i uen
assembly elec ions. Like Jha (2012), she a emp s o analyse he oles o di e en
in e na ional ac o s in Nepal's peace p ocess and ouches upon India's ole. E en
hough he b ie analysis o India's engagemen is insu icien o o e an elabo a e
pic u e o India's ex ensi e engagemen in Nepal, she success ully demons a es
how o he in e na ional ac o s su e ed and we e ul ima ely sidelined because o
India. She, o ins ance, ound ha some in e na ional ac o s, especially he small
ones, such as he Swi ze land-based Cen e o Humani a ian Dialogue and he US-
based Ca e Cen e, had o pu up, o en by using policies o ‘ ole ance’ and
‘a oidance’, wi h India’s empha ic p esence in Nepal (Whi ield 2008: 35).
Whi ield's (2008) wo k o e s a aluable insigh in o he oles o a ious
in e na ional ac o s in Nepal's peace p ocess. Howe e , i s main limi a ion is he
imespan i co e s. Many o India's in e en ions ha had a emendous impac in
Nepal occu ed mainly a e 2008, some hing ha is missing om he wo k.
A hand ul o s udies ha e also examined India’s engagemen in he la e yea s
o he peace p ocess and poli ical ansi ion. Bha a ai (2018), o ins ance, looks a
India’s ole in Nepal’s cons i u ion-making p ocess and iden i ies ou s a egies
India employed o in luence he con en o Nepal's new cons i u ion and he
decision-making p ocesses. Acco ding o him, India's ou s a egies we e high-
le el dialogue, economic blockade, in e na ional coali ion building, and a ge ed
suppo o domes ic opposi ional o ces in Nepal. He also ouches upon India’s
uneasiness, impa ience, and conce n o e China and Wes e n coun ies’ g owing
p esence in Nepal. He no es how India was ‘looking o a enues h ough which i
could send a message o i being he mos in luen ial powe in Nepal’ (p. 5).
Simila ly, Ghimi e (2018a) in es iga ed secu i y sec o go e nance in pos -wa
Nepal and ound ha India used eli e-le el in e ac ions o ad ance i s secu i y
in e es s. Ghimi e’s (2018a) indings help us unde s and India’s in luence on
Nepal’s secu i y sec o in he peace p ocess yea s. Howe e , his exclusi e ocus on
he secu i y sec o is insu icien o ell a holis ic s o y o India’s in luence in Nepal,
which ex ends well beyond he secu i y sec o . As I explain in subsequen chap e s,
India's in luence included poli ical meddling and mic omanagemen ha a ec ed
Nepal's day- o-day poli ics, bu eauc acy, as well as s a e appa a uses and decision-
making mechanisms.
Schola s such as Shah (2004) and Ghimi e (2018b) ha e inco po a ed a b oade
heo e ical dimension in hei wo ks o analyse he umul uous India–Nepal
ela ions o he 21s cen u y, among o he hings. They iew he ela ionship
be ween he wo coun ies as he ep oduc ion o pa on-clien ela ionships ha
110
I will begin he nex sec ion by discussing India’s claims and i s sel -p ojec ion
as an éminence g ise in he Nepali peace p ocess. As al eady men ioned, India was
ne e o icially in ol ed as a media o o a bi a o in Nepal's peace p ocess.
Howe e , as he peace p ocess mo ed in a posi i e di ec ion and he a med con lic
inally ended in 2006 wi h he CPA, India did no shy away om aking c edi o
he ac ions i claims o ha e aken. This desi e o c edi and a cons an s ake-
seeking men ali y has c ea ed con usion and dismay in Nepal. I has also aised
se ious conce ns abou India’s in en ions and ac ions in he coun y.
5.2 Taking Undue C edi ? The Indian 'Owne ship' o he Nepali
Peace P ocess
In Sep embe 2015, Nepal's Cons i uen Assembly (CA) was all se o p omulga e a
new cons i u ion and pu an end o yea s o poli ical s alema e, s agna ion, and
indecisi eness ha had pa alysed he na ion. A cons i u ion om a people-elec ed
Cons i uen Assembly was a d eam o he Nepali people, a hope hey held dea o
o e se en decades. I was also a key demand o he Maois s and symbolically
ep esen ed he culmina ion o he peace p ocess.
Th ee days be o e he scheduled cons i u ional p omulga ion da e, on 17
Sep embe 2015, Indian Fo eign Sec e a y Sub ahmanyam Jaishanka landed in
Ka hmandu as Indian P ime Minis e Na end a Modi's special en oy. As e en s
un olding in he a e ma h showed, Jaishanka came o Nepal wi h a single
manda e: o p e en he new Nepali cons i u ion om being p omulga ed on he
scheduled da e. Jaishanka , lanked by he Indian Ambassado o Nepal, Ranji
Rae, me wi h senio poli ical leade s in Nepal, including he P ime Minis e , Sushil
Koi ala, and op Maois leade s, such as Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'P achanda' and
Babu am Bha a ai. I has been clea om a ious i s -hand accoun s (see, o
ins ance, N.K. Sh es ha 2017a) ha when mee ing Nepali leade s, Jaishanka
c ossed diploma ic bounda ies. He wa ned Nepali leade s no o p omulga e he
cons i u ion unless a g een signal was ecei ed om New Delhi o un il he
demands aised by India and he Madhesi pa ies we e duly add essed. Na ayan
Kaji Sh es ha, Nepal's o me o eign minis e , who me wi h Jaishanka along wi h
Maois leade s Dahal and Bha a ai, desc ibed he mee ing du ing a media
in e iew as ollows:
F om he e y beginning, he way he p esen ed himsel was no good. He said a he
beginning, ‘You a e eady o decla e he cons i u ion o e nigh , a en' you? You a e iola ing
he en i e p ocess and decla ing he cons i u ion?’ As a diploma and an en oy o a head o
go e nmen , he should no ha e alked like ha . He no only iola ed diploma ic no ms, bu
also da ed o unde mine he so e eign y o Nepal and he Nepali people. Going u he , he
said, ‘I ha e come o Nepal as a special en oy o he P ime Minis e and wi h a special
mission and message. Tha is, you ha e o pos pone he p omulga ion o he cons i u ion o
now...O he wise, you will ha e o kill many people on he day he cons i u ion is
p omulga ed…He also said, 'Wha happens e en when you decla e he cons i u ion? Wha
happens e en wi h he suppo o many coun ies in he wo ld? Does you cons i u ion wo k
i India does no suppo i ? Yes, you can decla e he cons i u ion, bu don' you wan
de elopmen ? And don' you need India's help o de elopmen ? Has India's suppo been
enough al eady?'
Indi ec ly, he h ea ened o e alia e i India's ad ice o s op he cons i u ion's p omulga ion
was no heeded. He also said, 'I we hadn' helped, you would s ill be in he jungle, and he
mona chy would s ill be he e. And ha is now o go en?' In sho , i appea ed ha his
111
mission was o s op he p omulga ion o he cons i u ion a all cos s. This was no jus a
gene al eques ; i was a h ea ening o de (N.K. Sh es ha 2017a).
Jaishanka 's sho s in in Ka hmandu was no as success ul as he had p obably
hoped o be. Despi e India's se ious ese a ions, Nepal's Cons i uen Assembly
p omulga ed he new cons i u ion, wi h mo e han 90% o he CA membe s o ing
in i s a ou . While he egional Madhesh-based pa ies ook o he s ee s opposing
he new cons i u ion, Jaishanka 's p ophecy o an e en ual 'bloodshed in he
s ee s' p o ed alse. Many coun ies wo ldwide, including he US, China, and he
EU, welcomed Nepal's new cons i u ion. Howe e , India me ely issued a s a emen
saying ha i had 'no ed' ha a new cons i u ion had been p omulga ed in Nepal
and ha i ex ended bes wishes o he people o Nepal (MEA India 2015). Th ee
days a e India had ex ended i s bes wishes o he people o Nepal, pe haps
in ending o gi e Nepalis a 'lesson', India imposed an undecla ed economic
blockade on Nepal. The blockade las ed o i e mon hs. I s ained he al eady
agile India–Nepal ela ions and c ea ed a humani a ian c isis in Nepal.
Jaishanka 's isi du ing he inal hou s o he cons i u ion p omulga ion
p ocess and he message he deli e ed clea ly indica ed ha India iewed i sel as a
'pa y' and a 's akeholde ' in Nepal's peace and poli ical ansi ion p ocess.
Jaishanka ’s message was clea : bypassing India's wishes was no an op ion ha
Nepali poli ical ac o s should conside . Simila ly, he economic blockade ha
ollowed his isi also clea ly indica ed ha he Indian es ablishmen was ange ed
by he Nepali poli ical ac o s’ exe cise o so e eign powe . By in e ening in he
cons i u ion p omulga ion p ocess, India wan ed o main ain i s g ip on Nepal and
i mly hold he helm o poli ical enginee ing.
Jaishanka was no he only high-p o ile Indian o icial who highligh ed India's
ole in Nepal's peace p ocess, seeking c edi o i . Yea s ea lie , in 2009, P anab
Mukhe jee—India's Minis e o Ex e nal A ai s, who la e became India's
P esiden —claimed in an in e iew wi h Al Jazee a ha India had pe suaded he
Maois s o gi e up iolence and pa icipa e in mains eam, peace ul poli ics. The
Maois s, Mukhe jee a gued, had accep ed India's admoni ion and ended up leading
he go e nmen in Nepal (see Al Jazee a 2009). In he in e iew, Mukhe jee
p ojec ed India as a egional peacebuilde . Apa om Nepal, he also ci ed examples
o o he Sou h Asian coun ies whe e India had been in ol ed in building peace and
s abili y.
In 2012, SD Muni, a p o esso a India's Jawaha lal Neh u Uni e si y (JNU),
who had men o ed he Maois leade Babu am Bha a ai du ing his doc o al s udies
a JNU, e ealed in a book ha he 12-Poin Unde s anding had 'eme ged om he
con inuous pa lays be ween he SPA and he Maois s, along he way in o mally
consul ing us ed in e locu o s and o icials in India' (Muni 2012: 328). Acco ding
o him, New Delhi used in o mal channels o in luence he con en o he 12-Poin
Unde s anding.90 The SPA and he Maois nego ia ion eam membe s showed him
he d a o he documen se e al imes. Muni, howe e , ejec ed he allega ions
ha New Delhi was he mas e mind behind he 12-Poin Unde s anding and ha
he Maois s and he SPA we e p esen ed wi h a inal documen d a me ely o sign.
90 He a gued ha India in luenced he con en o he 12-Poin Unde s anding in h ee c i ical aspec s. Fi s ,
i was called an 'unde s anding' and no an 'ag eemen ' o make su e ha i was no a binding commi men o
ei he side. Second, e en hough he Unde s anding was eached in New Delhi, i was no made public o signed
join ly by he SPA and he Maois s. This was done o ba Maois s om he legi imacy hey we e seeking. Thi d,
i was also made su e ha he wo d ' epublic' did no appea in he documen and was eplaced wi h ph ases
such as ' ull democ acy' o 'end o he au oc a ic mona chy' (Muni 2012: 317).
112
The Nepali peace p ocess has se ed as a use ul example o a ma ke ing ool ha
Indian poli icians, diploma s, and he Indian co po a e media, obsessed wi h
India’s in e na ional image, ha e been using o po ay India’s image as a egional
democ acy-p omo e and peacebuilde . E en Indian academics ha e done so.
While India’s ‘ma ke ing’ o i s in ol emen in he Nepali peace p ocess appea s o
be wo king qui e e ec i ely, a ca e ul analysis o he in e nal poli ical e en s in
Nepal does no qui e add up o he s o y ha India is elling he wo ld. Be o e
ques ioning he Indian e sion o e en s, in he nex sec ion, I analyse a se ies o
poli ical e en s in Nepal om as ea ly as 2001. An analysis o hese e en s o e s a
b oade iew o he e olu ion o he Nepali peace p ocess. I demons a es ha
in e nal poli ical dynamics we e much mo e c ucial in ini ia ing, s ee ing, and
accomplishing he 12-Poin Unde s anding and a ela i ely success ul peace p ocess
in Nepal.
5.3 The Con lic Conund um and he S o y o Two Failed Peace
P ocesses
In July 2001, She Bahadu Deuba, a leade o he Nepali Cong ess pa y, who
happened o be Nepal's P ime Minis e when he Maois insu gency began in 1996,
ose o powe again as P ime Minis e . Deuba had comple ely igno ed he Maois s'
40-poin demands in 1996. Howe e , wi hin six yea s, he Maois mo emen had
p oli e a ed o such an ex en ha his ime, Deuba's su i al as P ime Minis e
mos ly depended on his abili y o pe suade he Maois s o pa icipa e in peace alks
and o end he a med con lic wi h a nego ia ed se lemen .
Two days a e Deuba’s appoin men as P ime Minis e , on 25 July 2001, a
cease i e was decla ed. A e a li le mo e han a mon h, on 30 Augus 2001, he
i s ound o peace alks be ween he go e nmen and Maois nego ia ion eams
was held a a p i a e eso in Lali pu . Two weeks a e he i s alks, he second
ound ook place in Ba diya, wes e n Nepal (Up e i 2006: 120). A he nego ia ing
able, he Maois s demanded, among o he hings, ha a epublican sys em be
es ablished in Nepal and ha he 1990 cons i u ion should be eplaced by a new
one. They demanded a people-elec ed cons i uen assembly o d a and decla e a
new cons i u ion. The Maois s la e d opped hei demand o a epublican s a e.
Howe e , he peace alks ailed as he go e nmen was no eady o ul il any o he
Maois s’ majo demands, including elec ions o a cons i uen assembly. Muma am
Khanal, a senio Maois leade a ha ime who had pa icipa ed in se e al sec e
and in o mal alks ha led o he 2001 peace alks, ecalled why he alks had ailed
in 2001:
The i s ound o o mal alks in 2001 s alled and ailed o e he issue o he cons i uen
assembly (CA) elec ion. The e was disag eemen o e whe he o o ganise CA elec ions wi h
a condi ion o wi hou any condi ion. The king wan ed o ensu e ha his posi ion was
sa egua ded e en i elec ions o a CA we e held. The condi ion was no a ce emonial
mona chy, bu a cons i u ional mona chy. The CPN (Maois s) did no accep ha , and he
alks ailed.91
By mid-No embe 2001, he Maois s wi hd ew om he o mal nego ia ion p ocess,
decla ed he cease i e o e , and announced ha he a med s uggle would esume.
Wi hin days, hey a acked and cap u ed an a my ba acks in Dang in he wes e n
Ta ai (Whelp on 2005: 218). This was hei i s a ack on an a my base. In an
91 In e iew wi h Muma am Khanal (24.07.2017).
113
a emp o un a pa allel go e nmen , he Maois s also decla ed a new body called
he Uni ed Re olu iona y People's Council o Nepal. Maois ideologue Babu am
Bha a ai led he People’s Council (Thapa & Sijapa i 2004: 122). The Deuba
go e nmen esponded o he Maois o ensi es by decla ing a s a e o eme gency,
cu ailing ci il libe ies, and agging he CPN (Maois s) and i s sis e o ganisa ions
as e o is s. Some o he mos b u al clashes be ween he Maois s and s a e secu i y
o ces, including a acks and coun e a acks, ook place du ing he eme gency
pe iod (see, o ins ance, Thapa 2002, K ääme 2003).
The i s peace alks we e ini ia ed and held in Nepal, and he e is no c edible
e idence o any in e na ional in ol emen in hese alks. Howe e , a quick look a
Nepal’s poli ical si ua ion a ha ime is su icien o unde s and why he 2001 alks
ailed. In essence, he 2001 alks we e o ganised me ely o ac ical pu poses. A
ha ime, nei he he Maois s no he go e nmen seemed genuinely in e es ed in
esol ing he con lic h ough a nego ia ed se lemen .
The 2001 alks had begun in he con ex o majo poli ical uphea als in Nepal.
On 1 June 2001, wo mon hs be o e he i s cease i e, en p ominen membe s o
Nepal's oyal amily, including King Bi end a and Queen Aishwa ya, we e killed in
a mass shoo ing a hei o icial esidence in Ka hmandu. In he a e ma h o he
shocking oyal massac e, King Bi end a's b o he , P ince Gyanend a, was c owned
he new king. No long a e his ascen o he h one, King Gyanend a, known o
his ha dline image in con as o his ela i ely libe al deceased b o he , decla ed
ha he would no be a ‘passi e onlooke ’ like his elde b o he had been.
The Maois s ied o use he oyal massac e as an oppo uni y o ga ne suppo
o hei ' epublic' agenda. Babu am Bha a ai, h ough an op-ed in a na ional
b oadshee , a gued ha he legi ima e mona chy had been obli e a ed in he oyal
massac e and ha i was ime o ins i u ionalise epublicanism in Nepal. M
Bha a ai also po ayed he e s while king, King Bi end a, as a pa io ic igu e wi h
whom he Maois s had an 'undecla ed s a egic coope a ion' o e a ious issues
(see Bha a ai 2001).
Bha a ai’s a gumen aised conce ns because King Bi end a’s app oach
owa ds he Maois s had indeed been ambiguous. When he G.P. Koi ala
go e nmen had eques ed mobilising he a my agains he Maois s, King Bi end a
dismissed he idea.92 When King Bi end a was Nepal's head o s a e and he a my's
Commande -in-Chie , he Royal Nepal A my ne e le i s ba acks o supp ess he
insu gency.
G.P. Koi ala, who was P ime Minis e a he ime o he palace massac e, again
a emp ed o mobilise he a my. By de aul , he a my was loyal o he new King. As
pe he cons i u ion, a my mobilisa ion equi ed he King's app o al. When he new
King also declined his eques o mobilise he a my, G.P. Koi ala esigned as P ime
Minis e . She Bahadu Deuba, who eplaced Koi ala, ascended o powe ,
p omising ha he could esol e he a med con lic h ough dialogue and
nego ia ion and ha , in his iew, he insu gency was a poli ical issue and demanded
a poli ical solu ion. In con as o G.P. Koi ala's supp ession line, Deuba's p omise
o a peace ul esolu ion esona ed well in he con lic -s icken Nepali socie y.
The Deuba go e nmen 's su i al depended on i s abili y o sol e he a med
con lic h ough a nego ia ed se lemen . To jus i y his ele ance, M Deuba had o
decla e a cease i e and in i e he Maois s o he nego ia ing able. The Maois s, oo,
saw his as an oppo uni y o bols e hei image as a poli ical en i y. This was a
pe ec oppo uni y o hem o show ha hey we e a e olu iona y poli ical o ce
92 In e iew wi h Bedu am Bhusal (14.07.2017).
114
adep no only in iolence and andalism, bu also eady o join peace ul poli ics i
hei conce ns we e se iously add essed.
The public image o he Maois s had begun o su e because o he eckless ac s
o iolence and des uc ion hey had been ca ying ou since he insu gency was
launched in 1996. In he wake o he shocking oyal massac e and six yea s o Maois
iolence, p essu e o peace also came om he auma ised Nepali socie y. Ci il
socie y o ganisa ions ep esen ed ha oice in a ious o ms by lobbying and
campaigning o peace.
The Maois s and he Deuba go e nmen p obably knew e y well ha he
ambi ious and ha dline King would ha dly budge om his posi ion and ha he
peace alks would ul ima ely al e and ail. S ill, he alks we e held anyway because
e en he ailed alks o e ed bo h pa ies empo a y s a egic bene i s and some
amoun o poli ical capi al, which hey could sh ewdly use. The Deuba go e nmen
jus i ied i s ele ance by claiming i had s uck o i s ini ial p omise and b ough he
ebels o he nego ia ing able—an ac ha p e ious go e nmen s had ailed o
achie e. Simila ly, he Maois s ook ad an age o he cease i e o connec wi h and
campaign among he u ban popula ion, a g oup ha had been challenging o each
while ope a ing om unde g ound. In addi ion, as a p econdi ion o c ea ing a
conduci e en i onmen o peace alks, he Maois s we e able o nego ia e he
elease o a signi ican numbe o hei cad es om police cus ody and de en ion
cen es h oughou he coun y. Mo eo e , since he Maois s appea ed o know in
ad ance ha he alks we e going o ail, hey used he ime ha he cease i e and
he peace alks bough o eo ganise hemsel es and o p epa e o a majo gue illa
a ack as soon as he cease i e was o e .
A de ailed peace p ocess also se ed he ambi ious King. Since ascending o he
h one, he had clea ly signalled ha he wan ed a mo e ac i e ole and appea ed o
be looking o he igh momen o a majo c ackdown on poli ical pa ies. The
alks had ailed p ima ily because he King e used he idea o uncondi ional CA
elec ions.93 Howe e , he ailed alks we e used by he King and he oyalis s o
wea e he na a i e ha he elec ed ep esen a i es had been unsuccess ul in
ackling he insu gency and ha he King had o s ep in o es o e peace and o de
in he coun y.
On 4 Oc obe 2002, h ough a oyal p oclama ion, King Gyanend a sacked
P ime Minis e Deuba, dissol ed he Cabine , and seized o al execu i e powe . In
a ele ised add ess, he King accused he P ime Minis e o being ‘incompe en ’.94
Wi hin a week, Lokend a Bahadu Chand, a s aunch oyalis , was handpicked by
he King as Nepal’s new P ime Minis e .
Nea ly ou mon hs a e Chand was appoin ed Nepal’s new P ime Minis e , on
29 Janua y 2003, a new cease i e ag eemen wi h he Maois s was announced. The
Chand go e nmen had pe suaded he Maois s o ejoin he nego ia ing able. The
Maois s, who had been on he o ensi e as hey le he 2001 peace alks, had now
ended up in a de ensi e abyss. They had bo ne hea y losses du ing he s a e o
eme gency. In he wake o he 11 Sep embe a acks in he US, he changing global
poli ical clima e, especially he US's global 'wa on e o ', also a ec ed hem
signi ican ly. Fo ins ance, a e 2001, he US mili a y assis ance o Nepal inc eased
d ama ically, eaching o e 29 million USD be ween Oc obe 2001 and Oc obe
93 E en hough his designa ion was ha o a cons i u ional mona ch, since he enjoyed he loyal y o he a my,
he ul ima e au ho i y in Nepal a he ime es ed on him.
94 Showing secu i y easons, P ime Minis e Deuba had sough pos ponemen o pa liamen a y elec ions
scheduled o No embe . Ins ead o conside ing his eques , he King dismissed him and his Cabine .
115
2004 (HRW 2004: 84). In 2003, he Uni ed S a es also signed an an i- e o aid
ag eemen wi h Nepal, enlis ed he Maois s as a e o is g oup in i s 'wa chlis ',
and p o ided 'coun e e o ism' aining o he Nepali a my (TKP 2003a, TKP
2003b). Mili a y assis ance also came om o he coun ies, including China, India,
and he UK.95
A se ies o peace alks was held in Ap il, May and Augus 2003, bu he e was
li le p og ess ega ding a nego ia ed se lemen . The nego ia ion eams we e
eshu led as he King eplaced he Chand Cabine wi h he one led by Su ya
Bahadu Thapa, ye ano he s aunch oyalis . The Maois s sa a he alks wi h h ee
majo demands, no e y di e en om he ones hey p e iously had: 1. A ound
able con e ence (o all Nepali poli ical s akeholde s), 2. Fo ma ion o an in e im
go e nmen , 3. Elec ions o a cons i uen assembly (Up e i 2006: 125).
Once again, nego ia ions s alled o e he issue o he cons i uen assembly. The
alks did no p og ess as he Maois s had hoped, e en hough hey had been mo e
lexible han be o e, and he demand o an end o he mona chical ule had been
d opped o ' acili a e he peace p ocess' (Pokha el 2003). I became inc easingly
clea ha he go e nmen nego ia ion eam, made up o long- ime mona chis s, was
no au ho ised o add ess he majo demands pu o wa d by he Maois s. Wi hou
he King's di ec pa icipa ion, he e was li le p og ess in he peace alks. The
Maois s demanded ha , since he King cho eog aphed e e y hing om behind he
cu ain, he e was no poin in holding useless alks wi h he nego ia ion eam, and
ha hey wan ed o hold a decisi e alk wi h he King himsel . Thei demand,
howe e , was neglec ed by he palace.
As poli ical de elopmen s la e e ealed, amids g owing in e na ional suppo
o he 'wa on e o ' and a g adual mili a y de ea o he Maois s on he g ound,
he King was no in he mood o a comp omise. The peace alks, i appea ed, we e
ba ely a ac ical o ches a ion pe o med while he King se he s age and es ed he
wa e s o an au ho i a ian ad en u e. On 17 Augus 2003, while he cease i e was
s ill in e ec , he s a e secu i y o ces killed 15 Maois cad es and wo ci ilians while
hey we e asleep in cen al Nepal's Do amba dis ic (Tamang 2004). This was a
clea sign ha he peace alks we e o ganised o he sake o o ganising.
Pa icula ly, he go e nmen eam was nei he in e es ed no commi ed o inding
a peace ul solu ion o he con lic . A week a e he Do amba inciden , he Maois s
ga e an ul ima um o 48 hou s o add ess he issue o he cons i uen assembly, o
which he go e nmen did no espond. On 27 Augus 2003, he cease i e and he
peace alks we e o e as he Maois s wi hd ew om he p ocess and decla ed he
esump ion o he 'people's wa ' (Lawo i & Paha i 2009: 336).
The 2003 peace alks occu ed in a signi ican ly di e en domes ic and
in e na ional poli ical con ex . Howe e , as wi h he 2001 alks, a genuine
commi men o inding a nego ia ed se lemen was absen again. The US-led 'wa
on e o ' and inc easing in e na ional suppo appea ed o ha e con inced he
King ha he ebels could be c ushed and de ea ed h ough agg essi e mili a y
supp ession—an ac ha had al eady been ehea sed du ing he s a e o eme gency
pe iod.
This ime, he Maois s we e in a de ensi e mood and appea ed much mo e
esilien han hey had been in he 2001 alks. Thei esilience had a limi , and in
he name o comp omise, abandoning agendas ha had de ined and shaped hei
95 Fo an o e iew o mili a y assis ance ha Nepal ecei ed du ing he ea ly 2000s, see, o ins ance, HRW
(2004).
116
poli ical iden i y—such as hei demand o cons i uen assembly elec ions—would
ha e been equi alen o commi ing poli ical suicide.
To sum up, bo h he 2001 and he 2003 alks ailed because hey we e essen ially
des ined and designed o ail. The 2001 alks we e conduc ed because he Maois s
wan ed o buy ime and s eng hen hei poli ical and mili a y p owess, whe eas he
Deuba go e nmen wan ed o jus i y i s poli ical u ili y by keeping up wi h he
p omise i had made ea lie . In addi ion, bo h ac o s had o espond o he p essu e
o peace ha came in he wake o he 2001 oyal massac e. Simila ly, he 2003
alks s alled because King Gyanend a—who was g adually ehea sing his
au ho i a ian mo es—appea ed con inced ha in he changed global scena io, and
wi h an agg essi e mobilisa ion o he Royal Nepal A my, he ebels could be
de ea ed. The e o e, he saw no poin in comp omising wi h hem. In con as , he
Maois s we e in a de ensi e s a e. Howe e , d opping hei mos impo an
demands and su ende ing o he s a e was no an op ion hey could choose. As a
esul , he peace alks ailed, and new episodes o iolen con lic esumed in Nepal.
5.4 King Gyanend a’s Au ho i a ian Ad en u e
A e expe imen ing wi h wo handpicked go e nmen s in wo yea s, in May 2004,
King Gyanend a made an unusual public call o he P ime Minis e 's pos . Anyone
in e es ed in he job could 'apply' o i by sending a eques le e o he King. Ou
o se e al candida es, She Bahadu Deuba, whom he King had sacked in 2002 o
being 'incompe en ', was now eappoin ed as P ime Minis e h ough he
applica ion p ocess. E en hough Deuba ep esen ed a poli ical pa y, he Nepali
Cong ess (Democ a ic), he was s ill a handpicked candida e, and he e was no
na ional poli ical consensus o his appoin men .96 This way, he King con inued
unde mining he ele ance o mains eam poli ical pa ies and showed no in e es
in es o ing he democ a ic p ocess, which had been de ailed since his 2002
p oclama ion.
As a as he issue o he a med con lic and he p o ac ed poli ical impasse was
conce ned, he e was li le he Dauba go e nmen could do. The go e nmen 's
manoeu ing space was se e ely limi ed, since he go e nmen i sel was jus
ano he 'expe imen ' o he King. P ime Minis e Deuba, who had been a p oponen
o dialogue and peace ul esolu ion o he con lic be o e and du ing he 2001 alks,
was now adaman abou supp essing he Maois s by o ce. The Maois s, who had
walked ou o he peace alks eeling humilia ed, we e now agg essi ely engaged in
le hal a med a acks, ex o ion, and abduc ions. Due o inc eased hos ili y and he
secu i y o ces' agg essi e supp ession s a egy, he ebels su e ed some signi ican
losses, bu , a he same ime, hei ou each appea ed o ha e signi ican ly g own in
he wake o he 2003 alks (Up e i 2006, Lawo i & Paha i 2009).
On 1 Feb ua y 2005, he King inally e ealed wha he had been ‘ha ching’
behind he walls. In a ca e ully planned coup d'é a , wi h he suppo o he na ional
a my, he King dismissed he cons i u ion, deposed he P ime Minis e and his
Cabine , and consolida ed absolu e powe o himsel . In a leng hy ele ised
add ess, he labelled he Maois s as indi iduals engaged in c iminal ac i i ies who
had los hei way. He u ged hem o su ende hei weapons and join peace ul
poli ics. In addi ion, he made i clea ha he would chai he Council o Minis e s
96 The Communis Pa y o Nepal (UML) joined he Deuba go e nmen , a guing ha he King’s eg essi e
mo e, which began in 2002 when he sacked Deuba, had been pa ially co ec ed wi h Deuba’s eappoin men .
The Nepali Cong ess, a majo poli ical pa y led by Gi ija P asad Koi ala, howe e , ejec ed he King’s mo e
and con inued i s s ee p o es s.
117
as i s Chai man, signalling he end o handpicked p ime minis e s and his desi e o
ule as an au ho i a ian ule .97
Unde he King's di ec ule, mos senio poli icians in he coun y we e ei he
a es ed and placed in police cus ody o kep unde house a es . Human igh s
ac i is s, jou nalis s, and p ominen ci il socie y membe s we e subjec ed o simila
measu es. Fo mon hs, elephone lines we e cu o , and he In e ne was suspended
om public use. F eedom o exp ession and ci il libe ies we e se e ely cu ailed.
Media censo ship was so ex eme ha mili a y o ice s occupied he edi o ial desks
o majo newspape s and dic a ed wha wen o he p ess. One o he King’s i s
dec ees was o ‘ban he epo ing o news o e he adio and o gi e he au ho i ies
he powe o close down any media ou le ’ (Ch is ou 2006: 98).
King Gyanend a’s au ho i a ian ana chy was modelled on his a he ’s au oc a ic
Panchaya ule, which las ed o hi y yea s (1960–1990). Among o he s, he King
appoin ed wo ha dline Panchaya is, Tulsi Gi i and Ki i Nidhi Bis a, as Vice-
Chai men o his adminis a ion.98 He illed mos o he go e nmen minis ies wi h
illibe al igu es wi h con o e sial his o ies, who had li le poli ical ele ance in
pos -1990 Nepal.
In his Feb ua y 1 coup d'é a speech, King Gyanend a appea ed e y clea abou
his oadmap. He was going o use he an i- e o ism ca d o supp ess he Maois s
by o ce and sideline mains eam poli ical pa ies by imp isoning hei senio
leade s on co up ion cha ges. Wi h ha mindse , he King, howe e , ailed o
ealise ha 21s -cen u y Nepal was signi ican ly di e en om ha o he 1960s.
The democ a ic poli ical changes achie ed in he 1990s had signi ican ly al e ed
Nepal's social and poli ical landscape. Though he e was some le el o us a ion
o e how go e nmen s in he democ a ic e a had (unde )pe o med, o dina y
Nepalis seemed o che ish he democ acy and poli ical eedom ha he 1990s
b ough . The democ a ic change had also acili a ed a apid g ow h o a ee p ess
and a sp awling communi y o p o-democ acy and p o-change Nepali diaspo a,
which con ibu ed as s ong an ido es o he King's au ho i a ian ule.
Simila ly, unlike in he 1960s, Nepal in he 2000s had a ib an ci il socie y, as
well as housands o communi y o ganisa ions and non-go e nmen al
o ganisa ions wo king on a ious socio-poli ical issues. A signi ican po ion o he
popula ion ha was no only educa ed, bu also capable o independen hinking.
Wi h he apid g ow h o globalisa ion and mode n means o mass communica ion,
Nepal was no longe an isola ed mys ical Shang i-La in he Himalayas. I had
e ol ed in o an ac i e membe o he global communi y ha egula ly in e ac ed
wi h he ou side wo ld.
In such a scena io, i was clea om he beginning ha King Gyanend a's ule
would no las long. Howe e , he King appea ed adaman in his pu sui s and
seemed con iden in de ea ing he Maois s and mains eam poli ical pa ies o
consolida e his au ho i a ian egime. I onically, King Gyanend a's au oc a ic
ambi ions and his bla an dis ega d o opposing poli ical o ces c ea ed he
ounda ion o esol ing he Maois a med insu gency and ul ima ely led o he
c ea ion o a epublican Nepal, which I will discuss in he nex sec ion.
97 An uno icial English ansla ion o King Gyanend a’s p oclama ion is a ailable a :
h ps://www.sa p.o g/sa po g p/coun ies/nepal/documen /pape s/05eme gencyking.h m
98 Bo h Gi i and Bis a we e senio igu es du ing he one-pa y Panchaya ule, which las ed o h ee
decades.
118
5.5 New Mee ing Poin o he Maois s and he SPA: Ending he
King’s Di ec Rule
A e King Gyanend a began his ul ima e au oc a ic show h ough he Feb ua y
2005 coup, he ec onic pla es o Nepali poli ics began o shi . The pa liamen a y
poli ical pa ies ha had happily accep ed a cons i u ional mona chy in a poli ical
comp omise in 1990 we e appalled by he King's la es ac ions and his abjec and
epea ed b each o he 1990 cons i u ion. As he bond be ween he mona chy and
he pa liamen a y poli ical pa ies began o loosen, he possibili y o an a ini y
be ween he pa liamen a y pa ies and he Maois s subs an ially g ew.
Be o e he King's Feb ua y 2005 mo e, he ela ionship be ween he Maois s
and he pa liamen a y pa ies had been his o ically ense. The Maois s saw he
pa liamen a y pa ies and hei cad es as p ima y i als on he g ound. As a esul ,
since he beginning o he a med con lic , pa y membe s o pa liamen a y pa ies
became p ime a ge s o he Maois s. They we e killed, abduc ed, and o ced o lea e
hei homes. Simila ly, he Maois s we e a h ea and poli ical i als ha he
pa liamen a y pa ies wan ed o elimina e.
E en hough he King's eg essi e mo e had s a ed in 2002, he pa liamen a y
pa ies we e la gely in a ‘wai and see’ mood un il he King’s 2005 akeo e .
Occasional s ee p o es s agains he King’s mo e we e common, bu hei
commi men o a cons i u ional mona chy was unaba ed, e en hough he King had
clea ly c ossed he limi s se by he 1990 cons i u ion. The e was a eason o his
ole ance. The pa liamen a y pa ies we e con inced ha comp omising wi h he
King would be a be e op ion han joining hands wi h a adical communis o ce,
agged by many coun ies as e o is s. A e all, he Maois s sough o e adica e all
hei poli ical compe i o s and es ablish a one-pa y communis dic a o ship.
I onically, he Maois s also a emp ed o each a powe -sha ing deal wi h he
King. A e he 2003 peace alks had ailed, he Maois leade ship was able o
es ablish con ac wi h he oyal palace and eques ed a one-on-one mee ing
be ween he King and he Maois chai man, P achanda. K ishna Bahadu Maha a,
a senio Maois leade who was acili a ing communica ion wi h he palace,
accep ed ha hey had, indeed, sough o hold a decisi e dialogue wi h he King:
We had gi en he King wo op ions o choose om: powe o he h one. I he desi ed powe ,
we old him, he would ha e o elinquish he h one and decla e [Nepal] a epublic
s a e…and hen he could become an execu i e head o p esiden o i e yea s. And we would
suppo him. Bu i he needed he h one, we old him, he would ha e o gi e up all his powe
and accep he ole o a i ula mona ch (Ci ed in Adhika i 2011).
The Maois s ound hemsel es in an inc easingly despe a e si ua ion and we e
looking o a way ou . Reaching ou o he King was one o hei exi plans. In he
new poli ical scena io, bo h egional and global, i had become inc easingly
challenging o he Maois leade ship o ope a e om India. Bo h he Uni ed S a es
and India had agged he Maois s as ‘ e o is s’. In addi ion, wo ied abou he
spillo e e ec s o he Maois mo emen in o i s no he n s a es, India had s a ed
o de ain and ex adi e Maois leade s o Nepal (J. Nepal 2020). As a esul , senio
Maois leade s, such as P achanda and Babu am Bha a ai, e u ned om India
and li ed in he Loshebang moun ain in wes e n Nepal (BC 2014).
Ini ially, he King, oo, had been esponsi e o he Maois s' p oposal and
epo edly communica ed wi h hem ia p i a e messenge s. P obably awa e o he
Maois despe a ion, he ul ima ely neglec ed hei eques o a di ec and decisi e
dialogue. The un ealised p oposal o a mona chis -Maois alliance, howe e ,
119
c ea ed a deep di ision wi hin he CPN (Maois s) pa y. While he ac ion led by
Chai man P achanda was in a ou o coope a ing wi h he King and sidelining he
pa liamen a y pa ies, he second leade in he ank, Babu am Bha a ai, ad oca ed
o a pa ne ship wi h he pa liamen a y pa ies and he aboli ion o he
mona chy.99
In ad oca ing a coali ion wi h he King, a lawed cha ac e o he Maois
leade ship was appa en . In public, he Maois s main ained a minu ely c a ed
image o a adical p og essi e o ce ha was aiming o abolish he mona chy and
es ablish a people’s epublic. Tha is how hey pe suaded and mo i a ed housands
o Nepali you hs o join he insu gency and sac i ice hei li es. Howe e , o
po en ial poli ical gains, hey also sec e ly wo ked o build an ‘unholy’ alliance wi h
he King.
Howe e , he Maois s, who had been hoping o hea om he King, we e
shocked when he King, h ough he Feb ua y 2005 decla a ion, no only called
hem s ayed c iminals, bu also wa ned ha he would ake ac ion agains hem.
Agains his backd op, in Sep embe 2005, he Maois s’ cen al commi ee concla e
o ganised in Chunbang, a illage in he Rukum dis ic o wes e n Nepal, ook a U-
u n in hei posi ion on he mona chy. The pa y app o ed Babu am Bha a ai’s
poli ical line ha hey would coo dina e wi h he pa liamen a y pa ies o abolish
he au oc a ic mona chy. In addi ion, hey also decided o d op, a leas
empo a ily, he agenda o ‘communis one-pa y ule’ o he so-called ‘people’s
epublic’ and eplaced ha wi h a new ‘people’s democ a ic epublic’, whe e
democ acy and pe iodic elec ions would be i eplaceable ules o he game
(Adhika i 2014: 233, Sh es ha 2016, J. Nepal 2020).
Behind his d ama ic policy shi , he e was, howe e , some hing mo e han he
King's ledgling au oc acy. The Maois s had ealised ha a e nine yea s o gue illa
wa a e, he mo emen was losing momen um, and he d eam o cap u ing and
con olling he en i e Nepali s a e was becoming i ually impossible. Pampha
Bhusal, a senio Maois leade and an a endee o he Chunbang mee ing, ecalled
why he pa y had aken ha decision:
A ha ime, he na ional a my was no in a posi ion o go ou side i s ba acks. The balance
o powe was such ha we could no come o he ci ies, and hey could no go o he illages.
E en hough 80% o he coun y was unde ou con ol, i was impossible o us o cap u e
Ka hmandu… Since we couldn' do ha , we also needed a policy shi and an ag eemen … I
we could no do ha a ha ime, ou mo emen would ha e ended like he communis
mo emen s o Pe u, Malaysia, o he Philippines.100
By adop ing a policy o supp ession, he King was g adually closing all po en ial
a enues o dialogue and nego ia ion. The Maois s' decision o accep a 'democ a ic
epublic' and o engage wi h he pa liamen a y pa ies o a decisi e igh agains
he au oc a ic mona chy o ally changed Nepal's poli ical cou se. Ul ima ely, he
alliance be ween he Maois s and he pa liamen a y pa ies was announced ia he
12-Poin Unde s anding. I s ounda ions, howe e , we e laid app oxima ely a
mon h ea lie , no in a du ba in New Delhi, bu in a iny illage o he Rolpa dis ic
in wes e n Nepal.
99 To ad oca e his line o hough , a Maois poli bu o mee ing held in Janua y 2005 in Rukum ook
disciplina y ac ion agains Bha a ai. The mee ing decla ed him a 'p o-Indian be aye ', expelled him om all
pa y posi ions (excep he pa y's o dina y membe ship), and was de ained along wi h Hisila Yami, his wi e,
and Dinana h Sha ma, a senio Maois leade who had suppo ed Bha a ai's line o hough . Fo mo e on his,
see, o ins ance, J. Nepal (2020).
100 In e iew wi h Pampha Bhusal (03.08.2017).
126
in he wake o King Gyanend a's Feb ua y 2005 coup. The i s majo miles one in
ha p ocess was he Six-Poin Ag eemen signed be ween he Maois s and he CPN
(UML) in Rolpa. Howe e , he 12-Poin Unde s anding eached in New Delhi is he
mos signi ican and isible co ne s one o he Nepali peace p ocess.
As Bishnu Poudel pu i , he 12-Poin Unde s anding was an ou come o an
achie emen ha con ained he collec i e consciousness, o ganisa ion, and alues
o Nepali poli ical ac o s. Howe e , since ha ou come happened o be achie ed in
a o eign land, a wide a ie y o suspicions and in e p e a ions ha e eme ged.116
No ma e how small India's con ibu ion may ha e been, i mus be p ope ly
acknowledged, and India dese es he c edi ha is due. Howe e , India's ole does
no seem o be as signi ican and decisi e as claimed by P anab Mukhe jee o S.
Jaishanka . Mo eo e , he a ini y be ween he Maois s and he SPA had been so
close ha , soone o la e , an alliance would ha e been o med, e en i hey had no
been able o ga he in New Delhi. The e o e, a gumen s—such as ha o S
Jaishanka — ha he Maois s would s ill be in he jungle i India had no helped
appea implausible and la gely baseless. As P adeep Gyawali pu i :
I India's ole had no been posi i e, i would ha e been a li le di icul , bu he p ocess
would ha e gone ahead. The Maois s had ealised ha hey should come o a peace p ocess,
and he SPA had also ealised ha i was ime o ake he Maois s along and igh agains he
au oc a ic mona chy. The common midpoin was ha he Maois s should be eady o shun
a ms, come o a peace p ocess, and accep democ acy, while o he poli ical pa ies should
be eady o accep Cons i uen Assembly elec ions and make Nepal a epublic. So, i India's
ole had no been posi i e, i would ha e been a li le complica ed, bu i was no
impossible.117
Al oge he , he 12-Poin Unde s anding came in o ui ion no because India used
a whip o coe ci e diplomacy o because i pe o med he magic o a skilled
media o , bu a ha pa icula junc u e in his o y, poli ical de elopmen s in Nepal
necessi a ed such a solu ion. In o he wo ds, he balance o powe in Nepal’s poli ics
had mo ed om a ila e al in o a bila e al one, and alliance-building be ween he
Maois s and he SPA was qui e ob ious, gi en ha bo h we e su e ing om he
King’s supp ession.
The SPA ecognised ha i s collabo a ion wi h he Maois s was c ucial in he
s uggle agains King Gyanend a's di ec ule, and ha his pa ne ship would
ul ima ely help o end he a med con lic . Simila ly, he Maois s we e also acing a
c isis and a c i ical junc u e. In a way, he insu gency was no in a posi ion o mo e
o wa d. G adually, hey had ealised ha e en i hey cap u ed he s a e, hey
would no be able o sus ain i / un i all by hemsel es. They we e, indeed, sea ching
o a way ou .118
I will explo e he heo e ical linkages o hese occu ences in de ail in la e
chap e s. Howe e , in b ie , om a heo e ical s andpoin , I a gue ha du ing he
2001 and 2003 peace alks, he Maois a med con lic was no ye ' ipe'119 o
esolu ion. By la e 2005, when he 12-Poin Unde s anding had been signed, a
mu ually hu ing s alema e (MHS)120 was de eloping be ween he Maois s and he
116 In e iew wi h Bishnu Poudel (13.07.2017).
117 In e iew wi h P adeep Gyawali (10.07.2017).
118 In e iew wi h Bedu am Bhusal (14.07.2017).
119 Fo an in-dep h unde s anding o con lic ipeness, see Chap e 3, o , o ins ance, Za man & Tou al
(1985), Za man (1989, 2000, 2001).
120 See, o ins ance, Za man (2002).
127
SPA. The Maois s had expanded and eached a ce ain le el, bu p og essing u he
om he e was p o ing o be ex emely di icul o hem. In he case o he SPA,
hey could nei he de h one he King no su ende o he Maois s. Amids his
s agna ion, hey we e able o con e a mu ually hu ing s alema e (MHS) in o a
mu ually en icing oppo uni y (MEO) (see, o ins ance, C ocke 1992, Mi chell
1995, P ui 1997, Ohlson 1998, P ui & Olczak 1995). This was he case wi h India,
oo. India, which had been conce ned abou he spillo e e ec o he Maois
insu gency and he secu i y h ea s ha i would cause, had an ‘en icing
oppo uni y’ o be an in o mal media o o a acili a o . By doing so, i could no
only help sol e a p o ac ed con lic in i s immedia e neighbou hood, bu also claim
c edi o i and inc ease i s le e age o e poli ical ac o s in Nepal.121
5.7.2 An Uneasy A e ma h
In e p e ing India's ole in he o ma ion o he 12-Poin Unde s anding and he
o e all peace p ocess has been di icul . While he e is no denying he mo al and
p ac ical suppo ha India p o ided, i s exagge a ed in e p e a ion o i s
in ol emen c ea ed unease, con usion, and e en esis ance in Nepal (see Chap e s
6 & 7). Babu am Bha a ai, one o he main p o agonis s o he Maois a med
insu gency as well as o he peace p ocess, called he selec ion o New Delhi as a
enue o he 12-Poin Unde s anding a 'blunde ':
The ounda ion o he 12-Poin Unde s anding had al eady begun in Nepal. We had al eady
eached an unde s anding in Rolpa, whe e CPN (UML)'s Ac ing Gene al Sec e a y, Bamde
Gau am, and Yuba Raj Gyawali we e p esen . We con ac ed Gi ija P asad Koi ala om
he e, bu he said he was unable o come because he was sick and ha eaching Rolpa on
ho seback would be di icul o him. As pe his eques , we ag eed o mee in Delhi. Tha ,
howe e , has u ned ou o be a blunde ...Slowly, India was able o en e ou in e nal
con lic s, and he si ua ion escala ed o he poin ha an economic blockade was imposed
on us (Bha a ai 2016).
In he a e ma h o he 12-Poin Unde s anding, India's engagemen in Nepal
apidly inc eased. India began mic omanaging Nepali poli ics, o en blun ly
unde mining Nepal’s na ional so e eign y. India should ha e been celeb a ed o
i s acili a i e ole in ensu ing he sa e landing o an a med insu gency and es o ing
peace and democ acy in Nepal. Howe e , because o he unusual app oach i
adop ed in he wake o he con lic se lemen , an i-Indian p o es s we e common
in Nepal. A key in o man desc ibed how India a emp ed o misuse he us capi al
i had ga ne ed by acili a ing he Maois -SPA alks in New Delhi:
The 12-Poin Unde s anding was basically he esul o he e o s o Nepali poli ical ac o s.
Tha was he Nepali agenda. Bu he e was an a emp o misuse ha agenda. In he p e ex
o helping he Nepali peace p ocess, India ied o dic a e o mic omanage Nepal's in e nal
a ai s, on issues such as he con en o Nepal's new cons i u ion, he s uc u e o he ede al
s a e and he ype o poli ical economy ha we we e adop ing.122
In he a e ma h o a success ul peace deal, India–Nepal ela ions should ha e been
s onge han e e . Ins ead, in he yea s ollowing he CPA, hey ook a nosedi e.
Al hough I will discuss hese pos -peace deal issues in de ail in he nex chap e , i
is e iden ha India's desi e o in luence and i s ixa ion on con olling Nepali
poli ics ha e esul ed in mo e losses han gains. In he nex chap e , I explo e how
121 In e iew wi h an expe key in o man (in e iew yea 2017, name and in e iew da e edac ed).
122 In e iew wi h a senio poli ical leade (in e iew yea 2017, name and in e iew da e edac ed).
128
India's in luence in Nepal g ew ollowing he 12-Poin Unde s anding. I will de ail
how India agg essi ely engaged in poli ical enginee ing and mic omanagemen by
le e aging i s ole as a 'peacemake ' and by ying o ill he ins i u ional oid le
a e he mona chy's depa u e.
5.8 Chap e Summa y: India and he 12-Poin Unde s anding
My aim in his chap e was o assess India's in ol emen in he o ma ion o he 12-
Poin Unde s anding, signed in No embe 2005 in New Delhi, India, be ween he
Maois s and he Se en Pa y Alliance. The 12-Poin Unde s anding was
ins umen al in ending Nepal's 10-yea -long a med con lic and in ans o ming
Nepal in o a ede al democ a ic epublic. I began he chap e by add essing a ew
c ucial issues ega ding he 12-Poin Unde s anding and discussing why i is
impo an o assess India's in ol emen . This is especially ele an as he signi ican
p ocesses ha led o he signing o he 12-Poin Unde s anding ha e ecei ed li le
a en ion despi e hei impo ance. I also dedica ed a sho sec ion o explain how
India a emp ed o ake mo e c edi han i dese ed, while i s ole was p ima ily
ha o a acili a o o an in o mal media o . In addi ion, I analysed poli ical e en s
da ing back o he 2001 peace alks o highligh how Nepali poli ical ac o s ac i ely
engaged and u ilised hei agency o esol e he a med con lic and es o e
democ acy and he ule o law ha had been sna ched by an au ho i a ian king.
Despi e he c i icisms, India also played a cons uc i e ole. Fo ins ance, when
he Maois s we e agged as e o is s by coun ies like he Uni ed S a es, India
iewed he insu gency as a poli ical issue. I engaged wi h Nepali poli ical igu es
and acili a ed a sa e en i onmen o dialogue. Howe e , India's ac ions, such as
i s con inuous a emp o ake c edi o he success o he Nepali peace p ocess,
and i s ecu ing endency o seek a 's ake' in poli ical p ocesses in Nepal, no only
se e ed pos -con lic India–Nepal ela ions, bu also con ibu ed li le o India's
pu sui o p ojec ing i sel as a egional peacebuilde . Fu he mo e, i beli led he
ac i e ole Nepali poli ical ac o s played and he agency hey exe cised in esol ing
he a med con lic .
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6. Mission Mic omanagemen : An Analysis
o India’s Engagemen in Pos -Con lic
Nepal
In he p e ious chap e , I discussed how, in he wake o King Gyanend a’s 2005
coup and he ep essi e app oach he adop ed o silence his c i ics, a coali ion was
buil be ween he Maois s and he Se en Pa y Alliance (SPA). The Maois -SPA
coali ion was o med h ough he 6-Poin Ag eemen signed in Gha i Gaun in
Nepal’s Rolpa Dis ic and culmina ed in he 12-Poin Unde s anding signed in New
Delhi in No embe 2005. The 12-Poin Unde s anding, I a gued, was p ima ily a
esul o he ex ensi e wo k and conce ed e o o Nepali poli ical ac o s. I was a
esponse o he poli ical c isis and s alema e c ea ed by King Gyanend a's
au ho i a ian ule and he p olonged a med s uggle o he Maois s. In i s
a e ma h, he Maois s and he SPA ough wha was ou ed as he ‘las igh ’ agains
he King’s au oc a ic egime. I a gued in he p e ious chap e ha while India’s aci
suppo acili a ed he ansi ion om he 6-Poin Ag eemen o he 12-Poin
Unde s anding, i s ole was no as decisi e and c ucial as i was o en p ojec ed.
In his chap e , I will concen a e on he yea s ollowing he 12-Poin
Unde s anding and discuss how India s eng hened i s p esence in pos -con lic
Nepal by employing a combina ion o so powe and ha d powe ins umen s. I
begin he chap e by discussing he immedia e a e ma h o he 12-Poin
Unde s anding and by examining how i inspi ed a se ies o unp eceden ed
na ionwide mass p o es s in Nepal. I show how, despi e in e na ional p essu e o
nego ia e midway wi h he King, he people’s mo emen con inued un il he King
ga e in, and he pa liamen , which was dissol ed in May 2002, was eins a ed. A e
ha , I analyse India’s inc eased engagemen in pos -con lic Nepal. When he
mona chy was abolished in 2008, and as he cama ade ie ha shaped he Maois -
SPA ela ionship—and he ela ionship be ween he pa ies wi hin he SPA camp—
began o shi g adually om companionship in o ha o compe i ion and i al y,
India consolida ed i s p esence in Nepal as a majo and la gely uncon es ed
in e na ional playe . India ac ully ook ad an age o he absence o a s ong,
es ablished ins i u ion c ea ed a e he mona chy's depa u e. Ul ima ely, his led
o a si ua ion in which he Indian embassy in Ka hmandu and ope a i es o he
Resea ch and Analysis Wing (R&AW)— he o eign in elligence agency o India—
became de ac o dealmake s and in o mal media o s in c ucial poli ical nego ia ions
in Nepal. This also led o a scena io in which Nepal s a ed becoming inc easingly
dependen on India o sol ing i s ‘peace ime’ c ises.
My p ima y ocus in his chap e is on he s a egies ha India used in i s
engagemen in pos -con lic Nepal. In he ini ial yea s o he peace p ocess and
poli ical ansi ion, India eso ed o mic omanagemen , whe eas in he la e yea s,
i elied mo e on ha d powe policy ins umen s. When he Bha a iya Jana a Pa y
(BJP) came o powe in India in 2014, he BJP leade ship c a ed i s own ‘ ision’ o
Nepal, which was hea ily guided by he BJP’s Hindu a p eoccupa ion, exp essed
in he ideology o Hindu na ionalism. As a esul , one o India’s op p io i ies in
130
la e yea s became o keep Nepal, a leas cons i u ionally, a Hindu na ion. When
India’s ea lie s a egies, such as mic omanagemen and powe diplomacy, we e
g adually igno ed o a oided by Nepali poli ical ac o s, he BJP-led Indian
es ablishmen eso ed o mo e agg essi e pu sui s, such as coe ci e diplomacy and
he imposi ion o an economic blockade. India also a emp ed o pu p essu e on
Nepal by os acising and isola ing i in in e na ional o ums. E en seemingly benign
ins umen s, such as de elopmen assis ance, we e used as a ool o deepening i s
in luence in Nepal.
I conclude he chap e wi h a b ie heo e ical discussion on so powe , ha d
powe , and hei combina ion, known as sma powe . I a gue ha in i s
engagemen s in pos -con lic Nepal, India used bo h so powe and ha d powe and
a combina ion o he wo. The majo akeaway om his discussion is ha India’s
ocus was no on he means pe se, bu on he ends (i.e., i s o eign policy goals).
Finally, I con es he claims ha India’s o eign policy choices a e inc easingly
guided by so powe policy ins umen s and a gue ha India’s o e - eliance on
ha d powe ins umen s, such as coe ci e diplomacy and an economic blockade,
was coun e p oduc i e, as i aced s ong esis ance and de iance in Nepal.
6.1 Jana Andolan II and he D eam o a ‘New Nepal’
In he p e ious chap e , I elabo a ed on how he 12-Poin Unde s anding be ween
he Maois s and he SPA was eached in New Delhi. The 12-Poin Unde s anding,
which was essen ially a culmina ion o poli ical nego ia ions ca ied ou bo h in
Nepal and India, c ea ed a sense o en husiasm and hope among o dina y Nepalis.
The 12-Poin consensus ske ched a oadmap o a new Nepal whe e King
Gyanend a’s ep essi e ule would be eplaced by ‘ ull democ acy’ (see Appendix
4). In addi ion, in con as o he King’s plan o supp essing he ebels by o ce, he
12-Poin pac made i clea ha he Maois a med con lic was a poli ical issue and
ha i should be sol ed h ough dialogue and a nego ia ed se lemen . I also called
o ‘c ea ing a s o m o na ion-wide democ a ic mo emen ’ o b ing down he
au oc a ic mona chy and u ged people om all walks o li e, including ci il socie y
and p o essional o ganisa ions, o pa icipa e ac i ely in he democ a ic mo emen .
Fu he mo e, i emphasised ha he co e o he Unde s anding included ma e s
like ‘democ acy, peace, p ospe i y, p og essi e social ans o ma ion,
independence, so e eign y, and he digni y o he na ion’.
The pa liamen a y poli ical pa ies in he SPA had been p o es ing he King’s
di ec ule since his Oc obe 2002 p oclama ion, h ough which he had sacked he
elec ed p ime minis e and became he coun y’s de ac o ule . Howe e , he
p o es s o ganised o challenge he King’s undemoc a ic mo e and o he
es o a ion o democ acy a ac ed li le public suppo . These p o-democ acy
p o es s we e mainly concen a ed in big ci ies and hea ily depended on he
pa icipa ion o ac i e pa y cad es. The poli ical impac o hese p o es s was
limi ed, as many Nepalis emained la gely indi e en .
The e we e a ew easons behind people’s apa hy owa ds hese p o es s. Fi s ,
al hough he Nepali people alued poli ical eedom and democ acy, hey we e no
sa is ied wi h he pe o mance o he pa liamen a y pa ies in he pos -1990 e a.
O dina y Nepalis had ha bou ed ele a ed expec a ions o go e nmen s o med
a e he 1990s democ a ic ans o ma ion. The pa liamen a y pa ies, oo, had
p omised de elopmen and p ospe i y unde hei leade ship. Howe e , his did
no ma e ialise. Ra he han concen a ing on socio-economic ans o ma ion, he
pa ies equen ly became emb oiled in seemingly pe pe ual powe s uggles,
131
spending hei ime es ablishing and disman ling go e nmen s e e y ew mon hs.
As a esul , no a single go e nmen o med a e 1990 comple ed he i e-yea e m
s ipula ed in he coun y’s cons i u ion. Poli ical ins abili y, widesp ead co up ion,
and he onse and p oli e a ion o a iolen con lic all occu ed when he
pa liamen a y pa ies we e in powe . The poo pe o mance o he pa liamen a y
pa ies was one s ong eason why o dina y people did no show up in he ea ly p o-
democ acy p o es s.
Second, he pa liamen a y pa ies p o es ing agains he King’s di ec ule
demanded he es o a ion o democ acy, bu hey had no i m p oposals o add ess
he ongoing a med insu gency. A ha poin , o o dina y Nepalis, esol ing he
a med con lic and es o ing peace and sa e y we e mo e impo an han eins a ing
a de ailed democ acy. Thi d, since he King had p omised o es o e o de and
ul ima ely hand o e powe o he people’s ep esen a i es, people appea ed
eluc an o oppose he King’s mo e igh a e his Oc obe 2002 mo e.
The 12-Poin Unde s anding, howe e , d as ically changed he dynamics o
Nepali poli ics. I was eached a a ime when Nepalis had been despe a e o peace
a e expe iencing a decade-long a med con lic . A e all, i was o dina y Nepalis
who su e ed he mos because o he a med con lic . By he ime he 12-Poin
Unde s anding was eached, King Gyanend a’s au ho i a ian ule had been in ull
swing, and he people had slowly ealised ha unde he King’s leade ship, he e
would be nei he peace no democ acy. The 12-Poin Unde s anding no only
o e ed a clea oadmap o peace bu also made he p omise o ull democ acy and
inco po a ed se e al agendas o socio-economic ans o ma ion. In o he wo ds,
when Nepal was caugh in iolen poli ical chaos, he 12-Poin Unde s anding
p omised a new Nepal ha would be peace ul, democ a ic, inclusi e, and ul ima ely
p ospe ous.
A e signing he 12-Poin Unde s anding in New Delhi, he Maois -SPA
coali ion s a ed p epa ing o a la ge-scale mass mo emen in Nepal. Howe e ,
he e we e many unce ain ies and obs acles ahead. Madha Kuma Nepal, who
played an ins umen al ole in accele a ing Jana Andolan II o he 2006 ‘people’s
mo emen ’, ecalled how o eign ac o s had been scep ical o he success o he
planned mass mo emen and he popula i y o Nepali poli ical pa ies in gene al.
Fo ins ance, Ma hew Kahane, he Uni ed Na ions Residen Rep esen a i e in
Nepal, app oached M Nepal and ad ised him o comp omise wi h he King. M
Kahane belie ed he e was li le hope o a success ul mass mo emen in Nepal.
Simila ly, P anab Mukhe jee, he Minis e o Ex e nal A ai s o India a he ime,
and James F. Mo ia y, he US Ambassado o Nepal, bo h exp essed simila
doub s. They a gued ha he pa liamen a y pa ies lacked popula i y in Nepal, and
a success ul mass mo emen unde hei leade ship was unlikely.123
These assessmen s u ned ou o be inaccu a e. A ew days a e he 12-Poin
Unde s anding was signed, he CPN (UML) o ganised a mass ally in Bu wal, a ci y
in wes e n Nepal. O e i y housand people showed up a ha ally.124 Conside ing
ha he p e ious e o s by he pa liamen a y pa ies o o ganise la ge s ee
p o es s had ailed, he show o s eng h by he CPN (UML) in Bu wal was no able.
The success o he Bu wal ally clea ly signalled ha he Nepali people had app o ed
he agenda o peace and democ acy ha he 12-Poin Unde s anding p oposed.
In he ollowing mon hs, se e al p o es allies and p o-democ acy mass
ga he ings we e o ganised in o he big ci ies, including Ka hmandu, Pokha a,
123 In e iew wi h Madha Kuma Nepal (11.07.2017).
124 In e iew wi h Madha Kuma Nepal (11.07.2017).
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