S udies Managemen and Finance Economics, o Jou nal
0504-2644 (online): ISSN 0490,-2644 (p in ): ISSN
5202 Oc obe 10 Issue 80 Volume
8.317 Fac o : Impac ,14-i10-10.47191/je ms/ 8 DOI: A icle
7106 -9669 No: Page
JEFMS, Volume 08 Issue 10 Oc obe 2025 www.ije m.co.in Page 6699
Assessmen o Wel a e E ec s o Nige ia’s Cu ency Redesign Policy on
Households in he Fede al Capi al Te i o y.
Umoh, E ima Da id1, A siya Pius Amos2, Ibbih, Joseph Mamman3
1,2,3 Depa men o Economics, Facul y o Social Sciences, Nasa awa S a e Uni e si y, Ke i, Nige ia
ABSTRACT: The cu ency edesign policy was implemen ed o comba coun e ei ing, and p omo e a cashless economy. Howe e ,
i s impac on household wel a e, a co e objec i e o he policy, emains unde explo ed empi ically, wi h ex an s udies ocusing
p edominan ly on mac oeconomic indica o s. This s udy empi ically in es iga es he policy e ec s on households h ough income,
consump ion, sa ings, and access o inancial se ices in he Fede al Capi al Te i o y (FCT). The su ey-based desc ip i e esea ch
design was adop ed and da a we e collec ed om 375 households ac oss he six a ea councils o he FCT, selec ed om a
popula ion o 141,776 households, using he Ta o Yamane o mula, yielding a sample size o 399. A s uc u ed ques ionnai e wi h
a eliabili y coe icien o 0.919 (C onbach’s alpha) was used. The p obi model adop ed o es he hypo heses. Resul s e ealed
a posi i e e ec o he cu ency edesign policy on all household wel a e dimensions. Policy implemen a ion led o a 42% inc ease
in he likelihood o imp o ed income s abili y, 125% inc ease in he p obabili y o posi i e consump ion changes, 38% inc ease in
he likelihood o enhanced sa ings beha io , and 58% inc ease in he p obabili y o imp o ed access o inancial se ices. The
s udy concludes ha Nige ia’s cu ency edesign policy had a signi ican posi i e impac on household wel a e in he FCT by
os e ing inancial inclusion, encou aging o mal sa ings, and s abilizing consump ion. Howe e , he bene i s we e une enly
dis ibu ed, wi h highe -income households bene i ing he mos . This s udy ecommends complemen a y policies, including
a ge ed inancial li e acy p og ams and digi al in as uc u e expansion, o ensu e ha u u e mone a y e o ms a e mo e
inclusi e and equi able.
KEYWORDS: Cu ency Redesign, Household Wel a e, Financial Inclusion, Mone a y Policy, Nige ia.
INTRODUCTION
Cu ency edesign has inc easingly eme ged as a s a egic mone a y policy ins umen o s eng hen inancial sys ems and
p omo e mac oeconomic s abili y. Globally, cen al banks adop cu ency edesign ini ia i es o add ess challenges, such as
coun e ei ing, illici inancial lows, inancial exclusion, and weakened public con idence in mone a y policy (Olujobi, 2022; Umoh
e al, 2025; Samuel e al, 2018). The policy was o enhance he secu i y, c edibili y, and unc ionali y o na ional cu encies, he eby
sa egua ding household asse s, s imula ing economic ac i i y, and imp o ing he e ec i eness o he mone a y ansmission
mechanisms.
In de eloped economies, he implemen a ion o cu ency edesign has success ully es o ed he economic and inancial ope a ions
o hese economies by ackling hese challenges. Canada’s in oduc ion o polyme bankno es in 2011 signi ican ly educed
coun e ei cu ency, enhanced public us , and bols e ed in es o con idence (Bank o Canada, 2019). Simila ly, he Eu opean
Cen al Bank (ECB, 2019) epo ed ha edesigned Eu o bankno es in eg a ed ad anced secu i y ea u es, ein o cing public
con idence despi e he ini ial implemen a ion challenges. These success ul implemen a ions e ealed ha a well-designed
cu ency policy imp o es inancial in eg i y and suppo s household wel a e h ough g ea e mone a y s abili y and educed illici
ac i i y.
In sub-Saha an A ican economies g appling wi h coun e ei ing, illici inancial lows, inancial exclusion, and weakened mone a y
policy con idence, cu ency edesign has also been adop ed gi en i s a ying success in de eloped economies. Kenya’s
demone iza ion o he 1,000-shilling no es in 2019 cu ailed coun e ei ci cula ion, dis up ed illici inancial ne wo ks, and
expanded inancial inclusion (Cen al Bank o Kenya, 2019). Ghana’s 2019-cedi edesign enhanced he cu ency’s secu i y ea u es
and con ibu ed o mac oeconomic s abili y and in es o con idence (Bank o Ghana, 2019). These expe iences e eal a c i ical
mechanism h ough which cu ency edesign in luences household wel a e by educing coun e ei isks, s eng hening mone a y
Assessmen o Wel a e E ec s o Nige ia’s Cu ency Redesign Policy on Households in he Fede al Capi al Te i o y
JEFMS, Volume 08 Issue 10 Oc obe 2025 www.ije m.co.in Page 6700
c edibili y, and encou aging pa icipa ion in he o mal inancial sys em. Such policies can shape income le els, sa ings beha io ,
and consump ion pa e ns.
Despi e hese global and egional successes, he policy impac and con ibu ions o economic, inancial, and household s abili y
emain con ex speci ic. Nige ia’s economic esilience and sus ainable g ow h depend hea ily on he in eg i y o ai po s and
public us in he inancial sys em. Mo i a ed by conce ns o e coun e ei ing, excessi e cash in ci cula ion, and high le els o
inancial exclusion, he Cen al Bank o Nige ia (CBN) on Oc obe 26, 2022 announced he cu ency edesign policy, wi h he aimed
o educing he ci cula ion o coun e ei cu encies, he olume o cash held ou side he banking sys em, and p omo e inancial
inclusi i y. A he ime o his policy in oduc ion, o e 85% o cu ency in ci cula ion, ising om ₦1.46 illion in 2015 o o e
₦3.23 illion in 2022, emained ou side he banking sys em, he eby unde mining he mone a y policy e ec i eness (CBN, 2023;
Umoh e al, 2025). While he a io o coun e ei no es has dec eased om 20 pieces pe million in 2019 o 13 in 2020 (CBN, 2022),
pe sis en coun e ei ing con inues o h ea en inancial s abili y.
The e ec i eness o his policy in Nige ia is u he complica ed by i s high inancial exclusion a e. App oxima ely 38.3 million
adul Nige ians emain excluded om o mal inancial se ices due o ba ie s such as digi al illi e acy, cybe isks, and poo
inancial in as uc u e impeding p og ess (Inoue & Hamo i, 2019; Udo e al, 2023; Udo e al, 2025a). Consequen ly, his policy’s
implemen a ion aises c i ical ques ions ega ding i s e ec i eness in add essing key economic and inancial challenges.
Fu he mo e, unde s anding he policy's impac on household wel a e indica o s such as income le els, consump ion pa e ns,
and sa ings habi s is c ucial.
Despi e he policy con ibu ions o economic and inancial s abili y, he e is limi ed empi ical e idence o i s e ec i eness on
imp o ing household wel a e in Nige ia. As such, he policy in luence on income s abili y, sa ings beha io , and consump ion
pa e ns among Nige ian households emains unce ain.
Add essing his p oblem is c ucial because he e ec i eness o cu ency edesign ex ends beyond mone a y secu i y; i in luences
he b oade socioeconomic ab ic. Reducing coun e ei ing sa egua ds household weal h (Olujobi, 2022; Udo e al, 2025b), while
enhancing mone a y c edibili y os e s in es men and mac oeconomic s abili y (Samuel e al, 2019). A he same ime, inc eased
inancial inclusion h ough he expansion o access o sa ings, c edi , and digi al paymen channels, which in u n imp o es
household esilience and economic pa icipa ion (A oghene & Imene, 2023; Samuel e al, 2023; Ndubuaku e al, 2021; Okon e al,
2023). These in e connec ed channels unde sco e he need o a comp ehensi e e alua ion o he mul idimensional e ec s o
cu ency edesigns on wel a e ou comes.
While p io s udies ha e explo ed cu ency edesign in o he con ex s, such as he app ecia ion o he A ghani in A ghanis an
(Olujobi, 2022) and mac oeconomic s abiliza ion ollowing Tu key’s 2005 li a e alua ion, he e emains a signi ican gap in
empi ical e idence conce ning i s household-le el impac s in Nige ia. This s udy illed his gap by p o iding a sys ema ic
assessmen o how Nige ia’s 2022 cu ency edesign policy a ec s household income, sa ings, consump ion and access o inancial
se ices.
The con ibu ions o his s udy a e h ee old: Fi s , i ex ends he li e a u e on cu ency edesign by in eg a ing mac oeconomic
objec i es wi h a mic o-le el wel a e analysis, o e ing a holis ic unde s anding o policy ou comes. Second, i p o ides con ex -
speci ic empi ical e idence om Nige ia, a lowe -middle-income coun y wi h high inancial exclusion, he eby en iching
compa a i e analyses o mone a y policy esea ch. Thi d, he indings o e policy- ele an insigh s ha can in o m he design o
u u e cu ency e o ms, ensu ing ha hey a e mo e inclusi e, e ec i e, and aligned wi h he needs o he ulne able popula ions.
S a emen o he P oblem
Cu ency edesign policy is widely ecognized as a c i ical mone a y policy ool o comba coun e ei ing, imp o e mac oeconomic
s abili y, enhance inancial inclusion, and es o e public con idence in he mone a y sys em. Beyond i s mac o-le el objec i es,
his policy is designed o in luence key household wel a e indica o s including income, consump ion, sa ings, and access o
inancial se ices. Howe e , despi e hese objec i es, Nige ia’s 2022 cu ency edesign has s uggled o achie e i s goals, especially
wi hin Fede al Capi al Te i o y (FCT).
Al hough he o e all coun e ei a io in Nige ia declined o app oxima ely 13 pieces pe million bankno es in 2022 (CBN, 2022),
he p e alence emains signi ican ly highe among highe denomina ions, ₦200, ₦500, and ₦1000, whe e coun e ei le els ha e
exceeded 150 pieces pe million, a abo e he globally accep ed h eshold o 100 ppm. This pe sis en challenge no only
unde mines public con idence bu also exposes households o inancial isk and e odes he pu chasing powe o money, he eby
limi ing he policy’s an icipa ed income bene i s.
The consump ion e ec o cu ency edesign encou ages o mal ansac ions, educes cash hoa ding, s imula es agg ega e
demand, imp o es consume spending, and s eng hens he economy. Howe e , he Nige ian expe ience e eals a di e en
ou come, wi h implemen a ion challenges such as cash sho ages, in la iona y p essu es, and inancial exclusion dis up ing
Assessmen o Wel a e E ec s o Nige ia’s Cu ency Redesign Policy on Households in he Fede al Capi al Te i o y
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consump ion pa e ns, while s uc u al ba ie s, including poo inancial in as uc u e, low inancial li e acy, and dis us in banks,
limi sa ings mobiliza ion, and es ic access o o mal inancial se ices. As a esul , o e 65% o adul s emain unbanked o
unde banked and less han a qua e use a o mal paymen sys em (Okon e al, 2023; Udo e al, 2025b; Umoh e al, 2025).
Empi ical e idence om o he coun ies e ealed mixed and inconclusi e esul s. In A ghanis an and Tu key, hese policies
imp o ed mac oeconomic s abili y and educed coun e ei ing (Olujobi, 2022), while s udies in eme ging economies highligh ed
sho - e m dis up ions. E idence om Nige ia speci ically unde sco es pe sis en inancial exclusion, in la iona y p essu es, and
ongoing coun e ei ci cula ion (Umoh e al, 2025; Mo phy, 2023; Ndujihe, 2023; Olabim an, 2023).
These mixed ou comes poin o a signi ican knowledge gap: despi e he policy’s ambi ious objec i es, s udies assessing how he
policy simul aneously a ec s household wel a e h ough income, consump ion, sa ings, and access o inancial se ices in Nige ia
a e scan y. This s udy illed his gap by in es iga ing he policy e ec on household wel a e in he FCT.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Cu ency Redesign policy: This policy amewo k is b oadly de ined as he p ocess o modi ying a na ion's physical cu ency o
inco po a e ad anced secu i y ea u es, new ma e ials, and upda ed aes he ics o enhance du abili y, p e en coun e ei ing,
con ol in la ion, illici inancial lows, ein o ce public us in he mone a y sys em, and p omo e cashless ansac ions (Dada,
2023: Umoh e al 2025; Samuel e al 2023; Udo e al 2025). Beyond hese echnical aspec s, ex an s udies concep ualize i as a
mul i-dimensional mone a y policy ool o economic, inancial, and business secu i ies. In Nige ia, his policy is conside ed a
necessa y in e en ion o add ess he p oli e a ion o coun e ei no es, pa icula ly among high-denomina ion no es (₦200,
₦500, and ₦1,000), o cu b in la ion, accele a e he ansi ion o a cashless economy, and es o e public con idence in he
mone a y sys em (Okon e al 2023; Ndubuaku e al 2021; Olo in e al., 2015). As such, he Bank o Canada in oduced polyme
no es o educe coun e ei cu encies by o e 70%, s eng hen consume con idence, and inc ease bankno es’ li espan o
bankno es (Bank o Canada, 2019). The Eu opean Cen al Bank (ECB) in oduced enhanced Eu o bankno es wi h upg aded secu i y
ea u es o ein o ce public us and cu ency in eg i y (ECB 2019). Ghana in 2007 edenomina ed i s cu ency o ease ansac ion
bu dens and cu bed in la ion, whe eas Kenya’s 2019 cu ency change mi iga ed money launde ing and imp o ed inancial
aceabili y (A oghene & Imene, 2023). Howe e , he policy's ul ima e impac is con ingen on he s eng h o he coun y's
inancial in as uc u e and he public's us in i s banking ins i u ions.
Household Wel a e: The concep o household wel a e as a mic oeconomic cons uc is mul i- ace ed. T adi ional economic
pe spec i es measu e household wel a e h ough objec i e indica o s such as income and consump ion (Pigou, 1922; Dea on,
1997), which a e di ec ly in luenced by mone a y policies a ec ing disposable income and pu chasing powe . A mo e ma e ial
pe spec i e ocuses on access o asse s and essen ial se ices (Filme & P i che , 2001), which imp o es access o c edi and
sa ings acili a ed by inancial inclusion. Mode n app oaches ad oca e o a mul idimensional iew encompassing heal h,
educa ion, and li ing s anda ds (Alki e & Fos e , 2011), as well as subjec i e well-being and inancial secu i y (Diene e al., 2003).
This s udy adop s a comp ehensi e, mul i-dimensional de ini ion o household wel a e, encompassing bo h economic and
inancial dimensions. I is measu ed h ough indica o s such as household income, consump ion pa e ns, sa ings beha io , access
o inancial se ices, and asse accumula ion. Toge he , hese indica o s e lec a household’s li ing s anda ds, inancial secu i y,
economic esilience, and capaci y o pa icipa e in o mal inancial sys ems.
Cu ency edesign policies bo h di ec ly and indi ec ly in luence household wel a e h ough mul iple in e connec ed channels.
When implemen ed e ec i ely, i enhances inancial inclusion, educes coun e ei cu ency ci cula ion, and acili a es mo e
e icien inancial ansac ions, he eby s eng hening household economic secu i y. India’s 2016 demone iza ion led o a 25%
inc ease in digi al ansac ions and a signi ican inc ease in inancial accoun owne ship, e lec ing he po en ial o well-execu ed
mone a y in e en ions o imp o e inancial pa icipa ion (Ghosh, 2017).
Con e sely, poo ly implemen ed edesign e o s ha e ad e se impac s. In Nige ia, he 2022–2023 cu ency edesign policy
es ic ed access o cash (Udo e al 2025; Umoh e al 2025), e oded he eal alue o household sa ings (IMF, 2020), heigh ened
inancial exclusion (Udo e al., 2023; Udo e al 2025; Udo e al 2025b;), educed consump ion, and dis up ed income lows (Udoh
e al 2024), pa icula ly in a cash dependen economy.
The magni ude and di ec ion o hese impac s a e la gely shaped by he s eng h o he inancial in as uc u e, ins i u ional
capaci y, and popula ion-le el inancial li e acy. Empi ical s udies ha e e ealed ha inadequa e in as uc u e and low eadiness
exace ba e he nega i e ou comes o cu ency e o ms. Umoh e al. (2025) epo ha policy implemen a ion in Nige ia led
households in o liquidi y cons ain s, which educed access o essen ial goods and se ices and inc eased bo owing cos s.
Oyelami e al. (2023) u he no e ha app oxima ely 70% o small-scale ade s expe ience declines in sales and income due o
cash sho ages. Despi e policy e o s, only 45% o Nige ian adul s a e inancially included and digi al paymen adop ion emains
signi ican ly lowe in u al a eas, deepening egional dispa i ies in wel a e (Udo e al, 2023; Samuel e al, 2023; Udo e al, 2025a,b).
Assessmen o Wel a e E ec s o Nige ia’s Cu ency Redesign Policy on Households in he Fede al Capi al Te i o y
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These esul s e eal ha weak inancial in as uc u e, limi ed digi al pene a ion, and a pe sis en digi al di ide ampli y inequali y
and exclusion, unde mining he wel a e o ulne able popula ions and cons ain he b oade socioeconomic bene i s o he policy.
Theo e ical Founda ions
This s udy is unde pinned by wel a e economics, which p o ides a concep ual ounda ion o e alua ing how public policies
in luence social wellbeing. Cen al o his amewo k is he u ili y maximiza ion model, which posi s ha households alloca e hei
esou ces o maximize wel a e, subjec o budge cons ain s. As a mone a y policy in e en ion, cu ency edesign modi ies hese
cons ain s by al e ing liquidi y condi ions, ansac ion cos s, and access o inancial se ices. These changes in u n in luence
household consump ion, sa ings, and in es men decisions, he eby shaping o e all wel a e ou comes.
Wel a e heo ies p o ide he ounda ion o analyzing he dis ibu ional consequences o cu ency edesign policies. U ili a ianism
(Ben ham, 1789; Mill, 184) suppo s policy in e en ions ha maximize agg ega e wel a e. Unde his logic, cu ency edesign
could be jus i ied i i educes in la ion, cu ails coun e ei ing, and imp o es mac oeconomic s abili y o he majo i y. Pa e o
e iciency, on he o he hand, emphasizes wel a e imp o emen s ha do no wo sen any g oup. Howe e , his s anda d is a ely
me in p ac ice because policies such as cu ency edesign o en gene a e sho - e m dis up ions ha impose cos s on ce ain
g oups, especially hose dependen on cash ansac ions. The Rawlsian heo y (Rawls, 1971) o e s a mo e c i ical pe spec i e by
p io i izing he wel a e o he leas ad an aged. This p omp s an e alua ion o whe he cu ency edesign bene i s ex end o
ma ginalized and inancially excluded households o deepen p e-exis ing inequali ies. This dis ibu i e pe spec i e is pa icula ly
salien in con ex s such as Nige ia, whe e inancial access emains une en.
While classical mone a y heo ies, including he Quan i y Theo y o Money (Fishe , 1911) and Classical Mone a y Theo y, o e
use ul mac o-le el insigh s by linking money supply o p ice le els, hey a e o en c i icized o hei assump ions o ma ke
e iciency, pe ec in o ma ion, and ull employmen . These assump ions do no hold in de eloping economies ha a e
cha ac e ized by in o mali y, ins i u ional weaknesses, and inancial exclusion. Nige ian expe ience demons a es ha a sudden
con ac ion in money supply can ha e signi ican eal e ec s, including educed ou pu , employmen dis up ions, and inc eased
ansac ion ic ions, which a e inconsis en wi h he classical iew o mone a y neu ali y in he sho un (Keynes, 1936).
Con empo a y app oaches o wel a e economics ex end beyond adi ional models by inco po a ing ma ke impe ec ions,
in o ma ion asymme ies, and ins i u ional cons ain s. The Access Oppo uni y F on ie and Access Ba ie Theo ies (Beck & De
la To e, 2006) p o ide aluable amewo ks o unde s anding how cu ency edesign in e ac s wi h s uc u al ac o s, such as
inancial in as uc u e densi y, ansac ion cos s, egula o y amewo ks, and inancial li e acy, o ei he expand o es ic
household access o o mal inancial se ices. These heo ies unde sco e ha he e ec i eness o cu ency edesign depends no
only on mac oeconomic a iables, bu also on he ins i u ional en i onmen wi hin which households make inancial decisions.
This s udy d aws on he neoclassical g ow h heo y (Solow, 1956) and mone a y ansmission mechanisms, which posi ha
imp o emen s in mone a y c edibili y and educ ions in ansac ion ic ions can s imula e in es men and consump ion by
enhancing p ice s abili y and educing unce ain y. F om his pe spec i e, a well-execu ed cu ency edesign ha educes
coun e ei ing, cu ails cash hoa ding, and enhances con idence in he mone a y sys em inc eases eal incomes, s abilizes in la ion
expec a ions, and imp o es incen i es o households and i ms o hold deposi s and adop o mal paymen sys ems. Collec i ely,
hese dynamics con ibu e o imp o ed household wel a e and obus mac oeconomic pe o mance.
Empi ical Re iew and Gap
Ex an s udies on cu ency edesign ha e p edominan ly ocused on mac oeconomic indica o s such as coun e ei cu ency
olumes, cu ency ci cula ion, liquidi y managemen , in la ion con ol, and exchange a e s abili y. While aluable, hese s udies
assess policy e ec i eness based on agg ega e ou comes a he han examining nuanced, mic o-le el wel a e impac s. As such, in
Ghana and Kenya, A oghene and Imene (2023) epo ed a signi ican educ ion in coun e ei ci cula ion and enhanced mone a y
policy e ec i eness ollowing cu ency e o ms. Simila ly, Ghosh (2017) epo ed ini ial dis up ions and long- e m gains in inancial
inclusion and o mal sa ings mobiliza ion. Howe e , hese analyses ypically igno e how hese mac oeconomic shi s ansla e in o
household-le el ou comes such as changes in income dis ibu ion, consump ion capaci y, sa ings beha io , o access o inancial
se ices.
In Nige ia, ex an s udies ha e ocused on he immedia e economic consequences o he 2022 cu ency edesign, including
liquidi y sho ages, dis up ions in ade and ma ke ac i i ies, and pe sis en inancial inclusion gaps (Fasua, 2023; O i oju e al.,
2023). These s udies consis en ly epo ed ha cash-dependen households, in o mal sec o pa icipan s, and u al popula ions
a e disp opo iona ely a ec ed by cash sca ci y and ansac ion dis up ions. Sec o al analyses also con i m declining sales among
small businesses, a decline in consump ion expendi u e, and heigh ened bo owing cons ain s in he a e ma h o he policy
ollou (Oyelami e al., 2020). These indings e eal sho - e m e ec s, wi hou in eg a ing hem in o a comp ehensi e wel a e
analysis.
Assessmen o Wel a e E ec s o Nige ia’s Cu ency Redesign Policy on Households in he Fede al Capi al Te i o y
JEFMS, Volume 08 Issue 10 Oc obe 2025 www.ije m.co.in Page 6703
Mos o hese s udies ocus on single dimensions o household impac , such as consump ion and access o banking, igno ing he
in e connec ed channels h ough which cu ency edesign shapes household wel a e. While ex an s udies in es iga e shi s in
consump ion pa e ns o ma ke pe o mance, hey a ely measu e pa allel changes in sa ings beha io , inancial inclusion, o
income s abili y. Fu he mo e, hese s udies ailed o su icien ly explo e dis ibu ional e ec s ac oss demog aphic g oups, income
ca ego ies, o geog aphical loca ions, c ea ing gaps in unde s anding how policies a ec ulne able popula ions di e en ly. Few
s udies ha e a emp ed o measu e coun e ei exposu e by denomina ion o in es iga e how edesign in luences us in inancial
ins i u ions and he willingness o ansi ion om in o mal o o mal sa ings mechanisms.
These gaps e eal a c i ical need o mic o-le el, mul idimensional empi ical analyses ha go beyond agg ega e indica o s o
cap u e he nuanced channels h ough which cu ency edesign in luences household wel a e. By applying econome ic
echniques and con olling o socioeconomic a iables such as educa ion, employmen , and loca ion, i seeks o gene a e obus ,
e idence-based insigh s ha ad ance he li e a u e beyond mac oeconomic ou comes. In doing so, he esea ch no only en iches
schola ly unde s anding, bu also in o ms he design o mo e inclusi e and e ec i e mone a y policies ailo ed o he eali ies o
de eloping economies.
METHODOLOGY
This s udy employed a su ey-based desc ip i e esea ch design o in es iga e he e ec o he cu ency edesign policy on
household wel a e in FCT. The design in eg a es quan i a i e and quali a i e app oaches, enabling he sys ema ic measu emen
o wel a e ou comes and he empi ical es ing o hypo heses. S uc u ed ques ionnai es we e adminis e ed o households ac oss
six FCT a ea councils o cap u e p ima y da a on income, consump ion, sa ings, inancial access, and pe cep ions o he edesign
policy.
S udy A ea: The FCT, Nige ia’s poli ical and economic hub, was selec ed because o i s ins i u ional ele ance, demog aphic
di e si y, and well-de eloped inancial in as uc u e. Wi h six a ea councils, Abuja Municipal, Bwa i, Gwagwalada, Kuje, Abaji,
and Kwali, he egion hos s a he e ogeneous popula ion exposed o mone a y policy in e en ions, p o iding an ideal se ing o
e alua ing household-le el impac s o he edesign policy.
Da a and Va iables: The da ase is om a p ima y sou ce collec ed h ough a s uc u ed ques ionnai e o ganized in o
demog aphic, policy pe cep ion, and wel a e sec ions. The dependen a iable is household wel a e (HW), de ined as a bina y
ou come (1 = imp o ed wel a e pos -policy; 0 = o he wise). The independen a iables include household wel a e indica o s:
income, consump ion, sa ings, and access o o mal inancial se ices, along wi h con ol a iables such as age, gende , educa ion,
and employmen s a us.
Sampling and Da a Collec ion: The popula ion consis s o all households in he six a ea councils o he Fede al Capi al Te i o y o
Nige ia. I hos s app oxima ely 141,776 households acco ding o he 2022 Na ional Social Regis e o Nige ia (Na ional Social
Regis e o Nige ia, 2022).
Table 1: The Popula ion o Households in FCT, Nige ia
S/N
A ea Councils
Households
1
Abaji
44713
2
AMAC
10806
3
Bwa i
6971
4
Gwagwalada
6017
5
Kuje
35588
6
Kwali
37681
To al
141,776
Sou ce: Na ional Social Regis e o Nige ia (2022).
The sample size o 399 households was de e mined using he Ta o Yamane o mula. Ques ionnai es we e adminis e ed bo h
physically and elec onically (Google Fo ms) o ensu e co e age and o minimize non- esponse bias. The Ta o–Yamane o mula is
exp essed as
n = N
1 + N (e2)
Assessmen o Wel a e E ec s o Nige ia’s Cu ency Redesign Policy on Households in he Fede al Capi al Te i o y
JEFMS, Volume 08 Issue 10 Oc obe 2025 www.ije m.co.in Page 6704
Whe e:
n = he sample size.
𝑁 = he a ge popula ion.
𝑒 = he ma gin o e o (le el o p ecision).
n = 141,776
1 + 141,776 (0.052)
0.052 = 0.0025
1 + 141,776 x 0.0025
1 + 354.44 = 355.44
n = 141,776
355.44
n ≈ 398.8
The sample popula ion was app oxima ely 399 when conside ing a popula ion size o 141,776, con idence le el o 95%, and ma gin
o e o o 5%.
Gi en he bina y na u e o he dependen a iable, his s udy employed a p obi model o es ima e he p obabili y o wel a e
imp o emen a ibu able o cu ency edesign. The model is speci ied as ollows:
𝑃(𝐻𝑊𝑖=1
𝐶𝑅𝑃 ,𝑋) = Φ(𝛽0+𝛽1𝐶𝑅𝑃𝑖+𝛽2𝐻𝐼𝑖+𝛽3𝐻𝐶𝑂𝑁𝑖+𝛽4𝐻𝑆𝑖+𝛽5𝐻𝐴𝐹𝑆𝑖+𝜀𝑖)……
whe e HWi = 1 i household wel a e imp o ed pos -policy and 0 o he wise; CRP = cu ency edesign policy a iable.
β2, β5 = income, consump ion, sa ings, and access o inancial se ices
Φ= cumula i e dis ibu ion unc ion o s anda d no mal dis ibu ion
The a iables used in he s udy a e p esen ed in Table 2 along wi h hei jus i ica ions. P obi eg ession es ima es he ma ginal
e ec s o key a iables on wel a e ou comes.
Validi y, Reliabili y, and E hics: Ins umen alidi y was ensu ed h ough expe e iews and pilo es ing o 200 households.
C onbach’s alpha o 0.917 con i med in e nal consis ency and eliabili y. E hical s anda ds, including in o med consen , olun a y
pa icipa ion, and con iden iali y, we e s ic ly moni o ed.
Table 2: Va iables
Va iable
Measu emen / Scale
Jus i ica ion
Household Wel a e
(HW)
Bina y (1 = Imp o ed wel a e pos -policy; 0
= No imp o emen )
Cap u es he main ou come o in e es , whe he
he cu ency edesign imp o ed household
wel a e.
Cu ency Redesign Policy
(CRP)
Bina y (1 = Policy pe cei ed o a ec
household; 0 = No e ec )
Co e explana o y a iable; indica es di ec
exposu e o he policy.
Household Income Le el
(HI)
O dinal (Mon hly income ca ego ies)
Measu ing income as a key wel a e dimension
a ec ed by cu ency a ailabili y.
Household Consump ion
(HCON)
Con inuous (Mon hly o al expendi u e in
₦)
Re lec s consump ion pa e ns, a di ec indica o
o household wel a e.
Household Sa ings
(HS)
Con inuous (Mon hly sa ings amoun in ₦)
Assesses inancial esilience and sa ing beha io
pos -policy.
Access o Fo mal
Financial Se ices
(HAFS)
Bina y (1 = Has access o
banking/c edi /mobile money; 0 = No
access)
E alua es he inclusion dimension o wel a e
ou comes.
Age o Household Head
(AGE)
Con inuous (Yea s)
Con ols o age- ela ed economic beha io
di e ences.
Gende o Household
Head
(GHH)
Bina y (1 = Male; 0 = Female)
Con ols o gende -based di e ences in access
and economic ou comes.
Employmen S a us o
Household Head
Bina y (1 = Employed; 0 = Unemployed)
Employmen s a us in luences income,
consump ion, and wel a e ou comes.
Assessmen o Wel a e E ec s o Nige ia’s Cu ency Redesign Policy on Households in he Fede al Capi al Te i o y
JEFMS, Volume 08 Issue 10 Oc obe 2025 www.ije m.co.in Page 6705
(EMP)
Educa ional Le el o
Household Head
(EDU)
O dinal (No o mal, P ima y, Seconda y,
Te ia y)
Educa ion a ec s inancial li e acy, income
po en ial, and access o inancial se ices.
Sou ce: Au ho (2025)
RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
Ques ionnai es we e adminis e ed o 399 esponden s om 141,776 households wi hin six a ea councils in he FCT, Nige ia. The
hypo heses we e es ed using a p obi eg ession model.
Ques ionnai e Dis ibu ion and Response Ra e
Table 3: Dis ibu ed and Re u ned Ques ionnai e / Response Ra e
S/N
A ea Councils
Dis ibu ed Ques ionnai e
Re u ned Ques ionnai e
Response Ra e
1
Abaji
126
118
29.57
2
AMAC
30
29
7.27
3
Bwa i
20
18
4.51
4
Gwagwalada
17
16
4.01
5
Kuje
100
94
23.56
6
Kwali
106
100
25.06
To al
399
375
93.98
Valid
Response Ra e
F equency
Pe cen
Comple e
375
93.98
In alid
9
2.26
Incomple e
15
3.76
To al
399
100.0
Sou ce: Au ho ’s Su ey Compu a ion (2025)
Ou o he 399 ques ionnai es dis ibu ed ac oss he six a ea councils o he FCT, 375 we e e u ned, gi ing a high esponse a e
o 93.98%. mos alid esponses we e om Abaji, Kwali, and Kuje, e lec ing s ong engagemen in hese a eas. Only 2.26% we e
in alid and 3.76% we e incomple e, indica ing well-designed ins umen s and eliable da a. High e u n and alidi y a es enhance
he ep esen a i eness and obus ness o he s udy’s indings.
P e-es ima ion Tes Resul s
Reliabili y Tes : The in e nal consis ency and eliabili y o he esea ch ins umen was es ed using he C onbach’s alpha, a widely
accep ed measu e o scale eliabili y. The esul s e ealed a coe icien o 0.919, which is well abo e he ecommended minimum
h eshold o 0.50 (Nunnally, 1978). This high coe icien indica es ha he ques ionnai e i ems exhibi excellen in e nal
consis ency, sugges ing ha he ins umen is bo h eliable and obus o s a is ical analysis, and capable o gene a ing alid and
dependable esul s o he s udy.
Table 5: Reliabili y S a is ics
C onbach's Alpha
No o I ems
Ques ionnai e
0.919
20
Sou ce: Au ho ’s su ey compu a ion (2025)
Assessmen o Wel a e E ec s o Nige ia’s Cu ency Redesign Policy on Households in he Fede al Capi al Te i o y
JEFMS, Volume 08 Issue 10 Oc obe 2025 www.ije m.co.in Page 6706
Model Es ima ion Resul s
Table 6: Income e ec o cu ency edesign policy
Pa ame e Es ima es
Pa ame e
Es ima e
S d.
E o
Z
Sig.
95% Con idence In e al
Lowe Bound
Uppe Bound
PROBITa
Income e ec o
cu ency edesign
policy
0.42
0.15
2.80
0.005
0.13
0.72
In e cep
0.35
.012
2.92
0.003
0.12
0.58
a. PROBIT model: PROBIT(p) = In e cep + BX
Sou ce: Au ho ’s su ey compu a ion (2025)
The indings in Table 6 e eal a signi ican ly posi i e ela ionship be ween income and household wel a e unde Nige ia’s 2022
cu ency edesign policy (β = 0.42, p = 0.005). High-income households a e mo e likely o bene i om he policy because o hei
g ea e inancial esilience, access o banking se ices, digi al ools, and inancial li e acy. Con e sely, low-income households ace
ba ie s such as limi ed banking access and highe ulne abili y o dis up ions. Beyond di ec impac s, he policy also cu ailed
illici cash use, educed coun e ei ci cula ion, and enhanced pa icipa ion in he o mal economy, hus s eng hening income
s abili y. I u he s imula ed job c ea ion in digi al inancial se ices and con ibu ed o mac oeconomic s abili y by educing
in la iona y p essu e. O e all, he policy imp o ed wel a e and inclusi i y, bu bene i ed highe -income g oups mo e, highligh ing
he need o a ge ed in e en ions such as digi al li e acy p og ams and expanded inancial access o suppo low-income
households and p omo e equi able ou comes.
Table 7: Consump ion e ec o cu ency edesign policy
Pa ame e Es ima es
Pa ame e
Es ima e
S d.
E o
Z
Sig.
95% Con idence In e al
Lowe Bound
Uppe Bound
PROBITa
Consump ion e ec
o he cu ency
edesign policy
1.25
0.30
4.167
0.001
0.66
1.84
In e cep
0.50
.010
5.000
0.001
0.31
0.69
a. PROBIT model: PROBIT(p) = In e cep + BX
Sou ce: Au ho ’s su ey compu a ion (2025)
The esul s in Table 7 show a s a is ically signi ican posi i e ela ionship be ween cu ency edesign and household consump ion
(β1 = 1.25, p = 0.001). This indica es ha he policy subs an ially inc eased he likelihood o imp o ed consump ion pa e ns among
he households. The in e cep (β₀ = 0.50, p = 0.001) was also signi ican , sugges ing a baseline p obabili y o consump ion
imp o emen , e en wi hou o he in luencing ac o s. These indings imply ha cu ency edesign enhances household pu chasing
beha io by encou aging o mal inancial ansac ions, imp o ing liquidi y, and s abilizing p ices. Households wi h be e
in eg a ion in o he banking sys em likely main ained o inc eased hei spending capaci y, while b oade economic adjus men s
such as educed cash hoa ding and imp o ed paymen in as uc u e suppo ed o e all consump ion g ow h.
Table 8: Sa ing e ec o cu ency edesign policy
Pa ame e Es ima es
Pa ame e
Es ima e
S d.
E o
Z
Sig.
95% Con idence In e al
Lowe Bound
Uppe Bound
PROBITa
The sa ing e ec o
he cu ency
edesign policy
0.38
0.14
2.71
0.007
0.11
0.65
In e cep
0.31
.011
2.82
0.005
0.10
0.52
a. PROBIT model: PROBIT(p) = In e cep + BX
Sou ce: Au ho ’s su ey compu a ion (2025)
Assessmen o Wel a e E ec s o Nige ia’s Cu ency Redesign Policy on Households in he Fede al Capi al Te i o y
JEFMS, Volume 08 Issue 10 Oc obe 2025 www.ije m.co.in Page 6707
The esul s indica e ha a 1% inc ease in he implemen a ion o he cu ency edesign policy inc eases he p obabili y o imp o ed
household sa ings by 38%, demons a ing a s ong posi i e e ec on sa ing beha io . This sugges s ha he policy encou aged
households o sa e mo e, d i en by g ea e inancial awa eness, educed cash ci cula ion, and he inc eased use o o mal banking
and digi al sa ings pla o ms. Households a e be e equipped o s uc u ed inancial planning, which educes long- e m inancial
unce ain y. These indings a e consis en wi h hose o Abubaka and Yandaki (2023) and NIBSS (2023), who epo ed a su ge in
accoun openings and enhanced sa ings due o he shi owa d cashless ansac ions. By lowe ing he isks associa ed wi h he
and coun e ei cu ency, he policy indi ec ly s eng hened he sa ings cul u e. Fu he mo e, Mo phy (2023) and Nwanma (2023)
emphasize ha edesign policies educe inancial was e and os e p uden sa ing habi s. The esul s align wi h Classical Wel a e
Economics and Rawlsian heo y, highligh ing ha inc eased sa ings suppo collec i e wel a e, economic s abili y, and equi y,
pa icula ly o low-income g oups. O e all, he P obi eg ession con i ms ha he policy signi ican ly enhanced household
wel a e h ough imp o ed sa ings beha io , inancial inclusion, and long- e m economic esilience.
Table 9: Access o Financial Se ices
Pa ame e Es ima es
Pa ame e
Es ima e
S d.
E o
Z
Sig.
95% Con idence In e al
Lowe Bound
Uppe Bound
PROBITa
Access o Financial
Se ices
0.58
0.14
4.14
0.000
0.31
0.85
In e cep
0.30
0.08
3.75
0.000
0.01
0.43
a. PROBIT model: PROBIT(p) = In e cep + BX
Sou ce: Au ho ’s su ey compu a ion (2025)
The esul s show ha a 1% inc ease in he implemen a ion o he cu ency edesign policy leads o a 58% inc ease in he p obabili y
o imp o ed household access o inancial se ices, wi h a Z- alue o 4.14, con i ming a s ong s a is ical signi icance. The
con idence in e al [0.31, 0.85] u he alida ed his posi i e e ec . Households epo ed g ea e access o banking, c edi , and
mic o inance se ices, along wi h inc eased adop ion o digi al ools such as ATMs, mobile banking, and POS sys ems. This ou come
aligns wi h he NIBSS (2023), which epo ed a su ge in inancial se ice poin s, and Abubaka and Yandaki (2023), who
documen ed expanded agency banking in unde se ed a eas. The policy also lowe ed ansac ion cos s, imp o ed secu i y, and
educed eliance on cash (Mo phy, 2023; Emejo, 2022). These indings a e consis en wi h classical wel a e economics and
Rawlsian heo y, showing ha enhanced access p omo es alloca i e e iciency, inancial inclusion, and equi y, especially among
disad an aged g oups. O e all, he p obi analysis con i med ha he cu ency edesign policy signi ican ly imp o ed household
access o inancial se ices, suppo ing digi al adop ion, economic pa icipa ion, and b oade wel a e gains.
Pos -Es ima ion Tes Resul s
Ac oss all models, he con e gence in o ma ion con i ms ha he es ima ion p ocedu es success ully eached op imal solu ions
wi hin 16–20 i e a ions. This indica es ha he p obi models we e p ope ly speci ied and s a is ically s able. Pea son Goodness-
o -Fi es s u he alida ed he obus ness and eliabili y o he models. Each model p oduced high chi-squa e alues wi h
co esponding p- alues o 1.000, well abo e he con en ional h eshold o 0.150. These esul s con i med ha he es ima ed
models i he obse ed da a excep ionally well. Addi ionally, he absence o he e ogenei y ac oss all models sugges s ha he
esiduals we e uni o mly dis ibu ed, s eng hening con idence in he p edic i e accu acy and alidi y o he es ima ed
ela ionships.
Table 10: Pos -Es ima ion Tes Resul s
Indica o
Chi-Squa e
d
p- alue
I e a ions
Model Fi
Income E ec
238.416
339
1.000
20
Good i
Consump ion E ec
292.820
361
1.000
20
Sa ings E ec
107.134
355
1.000
20
Access o Financial Se ices E ec
264.703
363
1.000
16
Sou ce: Au ho ’s su ey compu a ion (2025)
