Assessment of business efficiency and enterprise investment as financial instruments in managing the economic security of the national economy and ensuring the socio–economic development of the country

Vasylchak, Svetlana

doi:10.5281/zenodo.17532379

Assessment of business efficiency and enterprise investment as financial instruments in managing the economic security of the national economy and ensuring the socio–economic development of the country

Vasylchak, Svetlana

Publisher: Zenodo
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17532379
Repository: zenodo.org
Language: en

Abstract

The subject of the study. The article is devoted to the study of the role of business performance assessment and enterprise investment as financial instruments in managing the economic security of the national economy and ensuring the socio–economic development of Ukraine. Research methods. The study used a combination of scientific methods and approaches, including systemic, logical, analytical, and graphical, which ensured the conceptual unity of the study.It is proved that in conditions of global economic instability, increased geopolitical risks, military challenges and rapid digital transformation, the use of artificial intelligence, ensuring the economic security of the national economy becomes a priority task. The economic security of the national economy is defined as a state in which the country’s economy is able to withstand internal and external threats, ensuring stable growth, efficient use of resources and protection of key sectors.Results of work. An effective tool for the development and functioning of business structures in the current conditions is the management function of analytics, forecasting and system planning, which serves as a platform for future development and allows you to resist emerging crisis phenomena, mitigate their consequences and make forecasting and bankruptcy impossible.Field of application of the results. The main approaches to assessing business efficiency in the context of investment and management of the economic security of the national economy are financial, operational, innovative, digital and systematic. Key indicators for assessing business efficiency in the context of economic security of the national economy are proposed and the algorithm for its implementation is visualized. Conclusions. The role of the state in ensuring macro–financial stability, stimulating investment, attracting international assistance, developing critical sectors and protecting business from risks is substantiated. Rebooting institutions (Bureau of Economic Security, Customs), de–shadowing of the economy, accelerating privatization and combating corruption are identified as prerequisites for improving the business climate and investment, in particular international investors. For practical implementation, the introduction of integrated monitoring systems that combine business analytics with investment and state regulatory mechanisms, as well as the development of public–private partnerships (PPP) between the state, business and international organizations is recommended. Further research will focus on developing universal assessment models for different sectors, taking into account post–war recovery, digital transformation, artificial intelligence, and environmental factors, in order to ensure comprehensive economic security for all levels of the national economy.

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84 ´ÎÐÌÓÂÀÍÍßÐÈÍÊÎÂÈÕÂÄÍÎÑÈÍÂ³ÊÐÀÍww © ÂÀÑÈËÜ×ÀÊ Ñ. Â., 2025 8. Kolodiychuk, A. V. (2015). Innovatsiynyy rozvytok promyslovosti: zavdannya upravlinnya pry vrakhuvanni umov nedoskonaloyi konkurentsiyi [Innovative development of industry: the tasks of management taking into account the conditions of imperfect competition]. Lviv: League Press. [in Ukrainian]. 9. Kolodiychuk, A. V. (2012). Informatsiya yak faktor innovatsiynoho rozvytku ekonomiky [Information as a factor of innovation development of the economy]. In Formuvannya rynkovykh vidnosyn v Ukrayini [Formation of market relations in Ukraine]: Vol. 5/1 (132) (pp. 58–62). [in Ukrainian]. 10. Kolodiychuk, A. V., Hushtan, T. V., Molnar, O. S., Vasylykha, N. V., & Chobal, L. Yu. (2021). Mizhnarodni perevezennya v mizhnarodniy ekonomitsi [International transportation in the international economy]: Textbook. Lviv: ATB Publishing [in Ukrainian]. 11. Kolodiychuk, A. V., Pisnyy, V. M., & Semchuk, Zh. V. (2009). 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Äàí³ ïðî àâòîðà Êèðëèê Íàòàë³ÿ Þð³¿âíà, ê.å.í., äîöåíò, äîöåíò êàôåäðè åêîíîì³êè, ï³äïðèºìíèöòâà òà òîðã³âë³ ÄÂÍÇ «Óæãîðîäñüêèé íàö³îíàëüíèé óí³âåðñèòåò» e–mail:[email protected] ORCIDKWWSVRUFLGRUJ 0000–0002–6592–187 Data about the author Natalia Kyrlyk, Ph.D. of Economics, Associate Professor, Associate Professor Department of Economics, Entrepreneurship and Trade of the Uzhhorod National University e–mail:[email protected] ÂÀÑÈËÜ×ÀÊ Ñ. Â. Îö³íêà åôåêòèâíîñò³ á³çíåñó òà ³íâåñòóâàííÿ ï³äïðèºìñòâ ÿê ³íñòðóìåíòè â óïðàâë³íí³ åêîíîì³÷íîþ áåçïåêîþ íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà òà çàáåçïå÷åííÿ ñîö³àëüíî– åêîíîì³÷íîãî ðîçâèòêó êðà¿íè Ïðåäìåò äîñë³äæåííÿ Ñòàòòÿ ïðèñâÿ÷åíà äîñë³äæåííþ ðîë³ îö³íêè åôåêòèâíîñò³ á³çíåñó òà ³íâåñòóâàííþ ï³äïðèºìñòâ ÿê ô³íàíñîâ³ ³íñòðóìåíòè â óïðàâë³íí³ åêîíîì³÷íîþ áåçïåêîþ íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà òà çàáåçïå÷åííÿ ñîö³àëüíî–åêîíîì³÷íîãî ðîçâèòêó Óêðà¿íè. Ìåòîäè äîñë³äæåííÿ. Ó äîñë³äæåíí³ çàñòîñîâàíî ñóêóïí³ñòü íàóêîâèõ ìåòîä³â ³ ï³äõîä³â, ó òîìó ÷èñë³ ñèñòåìíèé, ëîã³÷íèé, àíàë³òè÷íèé, ãðàô³÷íèé, ùî äîçâîëèëî çàáåçïå÷èòè êîíöåïòóàëüíó ºäí³ñòü äîñë³äæåííÿ. Äîâåäåíî, ùî â óìîâàõ ãëîáàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³÷íî¿ íåñòàá³ëüíîñò³, ïîñèëåííÿ ãåîïîë³òè÷íèõ ðèçèê³â, âîºííèõ âèêëèê³â òà øâèäêî¿ öèôðîâî¿ òðàíñôîðìàö³¿, âèêîðèñòàííÿ øòó÷íîãî ³íòåëåêòó, çàáåçïå÷åííÿ åêîíîì³÷íî¿ áåçïåêè íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà ñòàº ïð³îðèòåòíèì çàâäàííÿì. Åêîíîì³÷íó áåçïåêó íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà âèçíà÷åíî ÿê ñòàí, çà ÿêîãî åêîíîì³êà êðà¿íè çäàòíà ïðîòèñòîÿòè âíóòð³øí³ì ³ çîâí³øí³ì çàãðîçàì, çàáåçïå÷óþ÷è ñòàá³ëüíå çðîñòàííÿ, åôåêòèâíå âèêîðèñòàííÿ ðåñóðñ³â òà çàõèñò êëþ÷îâèõ ñåêòîð³â. Ðåçóëüòàòè ðîáîòè. Åôåêòèâíèì ³íñòðóìåíòîì ðîçâèòêó ³ ôóíêö³îíóâàííÿ á³çíåñ–ñòðóêòóð â íèí³øí³õ óìîâàõ âèçíà÷åíî óïðàâë³íñüêó ôóíêö³þ àíàë³òèêè, ïðîãíîçóâàííÿ ³ ñèñòåìíå ïëàíóâàííÿ, ÿê³ ñëóæɚòü ïëàòôîðìîþ äëÿ ìàéáóòíüîãî ðîçâèòêó ³ äîçâîëÿº ïðîòèñòîÿòè âèíèêàþ÷èì êðèçîâèì ÿâèùàì, ïîì’ÿêøóâàòè ¿õ íàñë³äêè ³ óíåìîæëèâëþâàòè ïðîãíîçóâàííÿ ³ áàíêðóòñòâî. Ãàëóçü çàñòîñóâàííÿ ðåçóëüòàò³â. Îñíîâíèìè ï³äõîäàìè äî îö³íêè åôåêòèâíîñò³ á³çíåñó â ÅÊÎÍÎÌ²×Í² ÏÐÎÁËÅÌÈ ÐÎÇÂÈÒÊÓ ÃÀËÓÇÅÉ ÒÀ ÂÈÄ²Â ÅÊÎÍÎÌ²×ÍÎ¯ Ä²ßËÜÍÎÑÒ² 85 ´ÎÐÌÓÂÀÍÍßÐÈÍÊÎÂÈÕÂÄÍÎÑÈÍÂ³ÊÐÀÍww êîíòåêñò³ ³íâåñòóâàííÿ òà óïðàâë³ííÿ åêîíîì³÷íîþ áåçïåêîþ íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà âèçíà- ÷åíî ô³íàíñîâèé, îïåðàö³éíèé, ³ííîâàö³éíèé, öèôðîâèé òà ñèñòåìàòè÷íèé. Çàïðîïîíîâàíî êëþ- ÷îâ³ ³íäèêàòîðè îö³íêè åôåêòèâíîñò³ á³çíåñó â êîíòåêñò³ åêîíîì³÷íî¿ áåçïåêè íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà òà â³çóàë³çîâàíî àëãîðèòì ¿¿ ïðîâåäåííÿ. Âèñíîâêè. Îá´ðóíòîâàíî ðîëü äåðæàâè â çàáåçïå÷åíí³ ìàêðîô³íàíñîâî¿ ñò³éêîñò³, ñòèìóëþâàíí³ ³íâåñòèö³é, çàëó÷åíí³ ì³æíàðîäíî¿ äîïîìîãè, ðîçâèòêó êðèòè÷íèõ ñåêòîð³â òà çàõèñò³ á³çíåñó â³ä ðèçèê³â. Ïåðåçàâàíòàæåííÿ ³íñòèòóö³é (Áþðî åêîíîì³÷íî¿ áåçïåêè, Ìèòíèöÿ), äåò³í³çàö³ÿ åêîíîì³êè, ïðèñêîðåííÿ ïðèâàòèçàö³¿ òà áîðîòüáà ç êîðóïö³ºþ âèçíà÷åíî ÿê ïåðåäóìîâè ïîêðàùåííÿ á³çíåñ– êë³ìàòó òà ³íâåñòóâàííÿ, çîêðåìà ì³æíàðîäíèõ ³íâåñòîð³â. Äëÿ ïðàêòè÷íî¿ ðåàë³çàö³¿ ðåêîìåíäîâàíî âïðîâàäæåííÿ ³íòåãðîâàíèõ ñèñòåì ìîí³òîðèíãó, ùî ïîºäíóþòü á³çíåñ–àíàë³òèêó ç ³íâåñòèö³éíèìè òà äåðæàâíèìè ðåãóëÿòîðíèìè ìåõàí³çìàìè, à òàêîæ ðîçâèòîê äåðæàâíî–ïðèâàòíîãî ïàðòíåðñòâà (PPP) ì³æ äåðæàâîþ, á³çíåñîì òà ì³æíàðîäíèìè îðãàí³çàö³ÿìè. Ïîäàëüø³ äîñë³äæåííÿ áóäóòü ôîêóñóâàòèñÿ íà ðîçðîáö³ óí³âåðñàëüíèõ ìîäåëåé îö³íêè äëÿ ð³çíèõ ñåêòîð³â, âðàõîâóþ÷è ï³ñëÿâîºííå â³äíîâëåííÿ, öèôðîâó òðàíñôîðìàö³þ, øòó÷íèé ³íòåëåêò òà åêîëîã³÷í³ ôàêòîðè ç ìåòîþ çàáåçïå- ÷åííÿ âñåá³÷íî¿ åêîíîì³÷íî¿ áåçïåêè äëÿ âñ³õ ð³âí³â íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà. Êëþ÷îâ³ ñëîâà: ɨö³íêà, åôåêòèâí³ñòü á³çíåñó, ³íâåñòóâàííÿ, ³íâåñòèö³éíèé êë³ìàò, ³ííîâàö³éí³ ô³íàíñîâ³ ³íñòðóìåíòè, ÊÐ², ðåãóëÿòîðí³ ìåõàí³çìè, óïðàâë³ííÿ åêîíîì³÷íîþ áåçïåêîþ, íàö³îíàëüíå ãîñïîäàðñòâî, ãëîáàëüíà åêîíîì³÷íà íåñòàá³ëüí³ñòü, ãåîïîë³òè÷í³ òà öèôðîâ³ ðèçèêè, âîºíí³ âèêëèêè, êðèçîâ³ óìîâè, öèôðîâà òðàíñôîðìàö³ÿ, âíóòð³øí³ ³ çîâí³øí³ çàãðîçè, øòó÷íèé ³íòåëåêò, ê³áåðçàãðîçè, öèâ³ëüíå áóä³âíèöòâî, ï³ñëÿâîºííå â³äíîâëåííÿ, ì³æíàðîäí³ ³íâåñòèö³¿, çåëåí³ òåõíîëîã³¿, ³íôðàñòðóêòóðí³ ïðîåêòè, ñòàëèé ñîö³àëüíî–åêîíîì³÷íèé ðîçâèòîê, äåðæàâíî–ïðèâàòí³ ïàðòíåðñòâà (PPP), ³íòåãðàö³¿ â ªÑ. 69(7/$1$VASYLCHAK Assessment of business efficiency and enterprise investment as financial instruments in managing the economic security of the national economy and ensuring the socio–economic development of the country The subject of the study. The article is devoted to the study of the role of business performance assessment and enterprise investment as financial instruments in managing the economic security of the national economy and ensuring the socio–economic development of Ukraine. Research methods. The study used a combination of scientific methods and approaches, including systemic, logical, analytical, and graphical, which ensured the conceptual unity of the study. It is proved that in conditions of global economic instability, increased geopolitical risks, military challenges and rapid digital transformation, the use of artificial intelligence, ensuring the economic security of the national economy becomes a priority task. The economic security of the national economy is defined as a state in which the country’s economy is able to withstand internal and external threats, ensuring stable growth, efficient use of resources and protection of key sectors. Results of work. An effective tool for the development and functioning of business structures in the current conditions is the management function of analytics, forecasting and system planning, which serves as a platform for future development and allows you to resist emerging crisis phenomena, mitigate their consequences and make forecasting and bankruptcy impossible. Field of application of the results. The main approaches to assessing business efficiency in the context of investment and management of the economic security of the national economy are financial, operational, innovative, digital and systematic. Key indicators for assessing business efficiency in the context of economic security of the national economy are proposed and the algorithm for its implementation is visualized. Conclusions. The role of the state in ensuring macro–financial stability, stimulating investment, attracting international assistance, developing critical sectors and protecting business from risks 86 ´ÎÐÌÓÂÀÍÍßÐÈÍÊÎÂÈÕÂÄÍÎÑÈÍÂ³ÊÐÀÍww Ïîñòàíîâêà ïðîáëåìè. Ó ñó÷àñíèõ óìîâàõ ãëîáàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³÷íî¿ íåñòàá³ëüíîñò³, ïîñèëåííÿ ãåîïîë³òè÷íèõ ðèçèê³â, âîºííèõ âèêëèê³â òà øâèäêî¿ öèôðîâî¿ òðàíñôîðìàö³¿, çàáåçïå÷åííÿ åêîíîì³÷íî¿ áåçïåêè íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà ñòàº ïð³îðèòåòíèì çàâäàííÿì. Åêîíîì³÷íà áåçïåêà íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà âèçíà÷àºòüñÿ ÿê ñòàí, çà ÿêîãî åêîíîì³êà êðà¿íè çäàòíà ïðîòèñòîÿòè âíóòð³øí³ì ³ çîâí³øí³ì çàãðîçàì, çàáåçïå÷óþ÷è ñòàá³ëüíå çðîñòàííÿ, åôåêòèâíå âèêîðèñòàííÿ ðåñóðñ³â òà çàõèñò êëþ÷îâèõ ñåêòîð³â. Îö³íêà åôåêòèâíîñò³ á³çíåñó, ùî âêëþ÷àº àíàë³ç ïðîäóêòèâíîñò³, ðåíòàáåëüíîñò³, ³ííîâàö³éíî¿ àêòèâíîñò³ òà ðåñóðñíîãî çàáåçïå÷åííÿ, à òàêîæ ³íâåñòóâàííÿ, âèñòóïàþòü íå ëèøå ³íñòðóìåíòîì ìîí³òîðèíãó ä³ÿëüíîñò³ îêðåìèõ ï³äïðèºìñòâ, àëå é ñòðàòåã³÷íèì ìåõàí³çìîì äëÿ ï³äòðèìêè åêîíîì³÷íî¿ áåçïåêè íà íàö³îíàëüíîìó ð³âí³. Ïðîáëåìà ïîëÿãàº â òîìó, ùî òðàäèö³éí³ ìåòîäè îö³íêè åôåêòèâíîñò³ á³çíåñó ÷àñòî íå âðàõîâóþòü ¿õ âïëèâ íà ìàêðîåêîíîì³÷í³ ïîêàçíèêè áåçïåêè, ùî ïðèçâîäèòü äî ôðàãìåíòàðíîãî ï³äõîäó òà íåäîîö³íêè ñèñòåìíèõ ðèçèê³â, òàêèõ ÿê çàëåæí³ñòü â³ä ³ìïîðòó, íåñïðèÿòëèâèé ³íâåñòèö³éíèé êë³ìàò, òåõíîëîã³÷íà çàëåæí³ñòü, íèçüêà êîíêóðåíòîñïðîìîæí³ñòü ÷è âðàçëèâ³ñòü äî ê³áåðçàãðîç, çîêðåìà â óìîâàõ öèôðîâ³çàö³¿ òà âèêîðèñòàííÿ øòó÷íîãî ³íòåëåêòó. Àíàë³ç îñòàíí³õ äîñë³äæåíü ³ ïóáë³êàö³é. Îñòàíí³ äîñë³äæåííÿ â ãàëóç³ îö³íêè åôåêòèâíîñò³ á³çíåñó, âïëèâó íà ³íâåñòóâàííÿ òà ¿¿ ðîë³ â çàáåçïå÷åíí³ åêîíîì³÷íî¿ áåçïåêè íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà àêòèâíî ðîçâèâàþòüñÿ ÿê â Óêðà¿- í³, òàê ³ íà ì³æíàðîäíîìó ð³âí³. Ó â³ò÷èçíÿí³é ë³òåðàòóð³ çíà÷íà óâàãà ïðèä³ëÿºòüñÿ ³íòåãðàö³¿ ì³êðî– òà ìàêðîåêîíîì³÷íèõ ï³äõîä³â. Îñíîâîþ äëÿ çä³éñíåííÿ äîñë³äæåííÿ ç îáðàíî¿ òåìàòèêè ñòàëè ïðàö³ ïðîâ³äíèõ â÷åíèõ, ôàõ³âö³â, íàóêîâö³â, çîêðåìà Î. Áàæåíîâà, Ñ. Âàñèëü÷àê, Ã. Ãîí÷àðîâà, Ð. Äàöê³â, Ì. ªðìîøåíêî, ß. Æàë³ëî, Î. Ì³ðîøíè÷åíêî, Â. Ìóíò³ÿí, Ò. Ïîâîä, Î. Ñêîðóê, Ñ. Øêàðëåò òà ³íøèõ. Íàïðèêëàä, ó ðîáîòàõ, ïðèñâÿ÷åíèõ åêîíîì³÷í³é áåçïåö³, ï³äêðåñëþºòüñÿ ðîëü îö³íêè åôåêòèâíîñò³ á³çíåñó ÿê ³íñòðóìåíòó äëÿ ï³äâèùåííÿ êîíêóðåíòîñïðîìîæíîñò³ íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè. Àâòîðè ïðîïîíóþòü âèêîðèñòîâóâàòè êîìïëåêñí³ ïîêàçíèêè, òàê³ ÿê ïðîäóêòèâí³ñòü ïðàö³, ðåíòàáåëüí³ñòü êàï³òàëó òà åíåðãîåôåêòèâí³ñòü, äëÿ îö³íêè âíåñêó á³çíåñó â åêîíîì³÷íó ñòàá³ëüí³ñòü. Äîñë³äæåííÿ â àãðàðíîìó ñåêòîð³ Óêðà¿íè àêöåíòóþòü íà ðîë³ âåðòèêàëüíî¿ ³íòåãðàö³¿ òà äèâåðñèô³êàö³¿ äëÿ çíèæåííÿ çàëåæíîñò³ â³ä çîâí³øí³õ ðèíê³â, ùî ñïðèÿº åêîíîì³÷í³é áåçïåö³. Çîêðåìà, çàïðîïîíîâàíî àäèòèâíó ìîäåëü îö³íêè åôåêòèâíîñò³, ÿêà âðàõîâóº ô³íàíñîâó, ñèðîâèííó òà åêîëîã³÷íó ñêëàäîâ³. Ó êîíòåêñò³ âîºííîãî ñòàíó, äîñë³äæåííÿ 2024–2025 ðîê³â ñèñòåìàòèçóþòü ï³äõîäè äî îö³íêè ðèçèê³â äëÿ á³çíåñó, ïðîïîíóþ÷è ³íäèêàòîðè ñò³éêîñò³, òàê³ ÿê äèâåðñèô³êàö³ÿ ëîã³ñòè÷íèõ ëàíöþã³â òà ðåçåðâí³ ôîíäè. Çà êîðäîíîì óâàãà çîñåðåäæåíà íà ñèñòåìíîìó àíàë³ç³ âïëèâó á³çíåñ–ïðîöåñ³â íà åêîíîì³÷- íó áåçïåêó. Íàïðèêëàä, ó ðîáîòàõ, ïðèñâÿ÷åíèõ îö³íö³ âïëèâó çîâí³øíüîãî ñåðåäîâèùà, âèêîðèñòîâóþòüñÿ åêñïîíåíö³éí³ ìîäåë³ äëÿ ïðîãíîçóâàííÿ çíèæåííÿ åôåêòèâíîñò³ ÷åðåç ôàêòîðè, òàê³ ÿê ãëîáàëüíà êîíêóðåíö³ÿ ÷è òåõíîëîã³÷í³ ðîçðèâè. Äîñë³äæåííÿ â ãàëóç³ ê³áåðáåçïåêè íàãîëîøóþòü íà íåîáõ³äíîñò³ ³íòåãðàö³¿ öèôðîâèõ is substantiated. Rebooting institutions (Bureau of Economic Security, Customs), de–shadowing of the economy, accelerating privatization and combating corruption are identified as prerequisites for improving the business climate and investment, in particular international investors. For practical implementation, the introduction of integrated monitoring systems that combine business analytics with investment and state regulatory mechanisms, as well as the development of public–private partnerships (PPP) between the state, business and international organizations is recommended. Further research will focus on developing universal assessment models for different sectors, taking into account post–war recovery, digital transformation, artificial intelligence, and environmental factors, in order to ensure comprehensive economic security for all levels of the national economy. Keywords: assessment, business efficiency, investment, investment climate, innovative financial instruments, KPIs, regulatory mechanisms, economic security management, national economy, global economic instability, geopolitical and digital risks, military challenges, crisis conditions, digital transformation, internal and external threats, artificial intelligence, cyber threats, civil construction, post–war recovery, international investments, green technologies, infrastructure projects, sustainable socio–economic development, public–private partnerships (PPP), EU integration. ÅÊÎÍÎÌ²×Í² ÏÐÎÁËÅÌÈ ÐÎÇÂÈÒÊÓ ÃÀËÓÇÅÉ ÒÀ ÂÈÄ²Â ÅÊÎÍÎÌ²×ÍÎ¯ Ä²ßËÜÍÎÑÒ² 87 ´ÎÐÌÓÂÀÍÍßÐÈÍÊÎÂÈÕÂÄÍÎÑÈÍÂ³ÊÐÀÍww ðèçèê³â ó ìîäåë³ îö³íêè åôåêòèâíîñò³, îñîáëèâî äëÿ êðà¿í ³ç âèñîêèì ð³âíåì öèôðîâ³çàö³¿. Ñèñòåìàòè÷íèé ï³äõ³ä äî îö³íêè áåçïåêè ïðîìèñëîâèõ ñåêòîð³â ïðîïîíóº ôîðìàë³çîâàí³ ïîêàçíèêè òà ïîðîãîâ³ çíà÷åííÿ äëÿ ìîí³òîðèíãó â äèíàì³ö³. Ñåðåä íîâèõ ïóáë³êàö³é 2024–2025 ðîê³â âàðòî â³äçíà÷èòè äîñë³äæåííÿ, ïðèñâÿ÷åí³ åêîíîì³÷- í³é áåçïåö³ â óìîâàõ âîºííèõ êîíôë³êò³â, äå àíàë³çóºòüñÿ ðîëü á³çíåñó â ï³äòðèìö³ íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè ÷åðåç ïðàöåâëàøòóâàííÿ òà ïîäàòêîâ³ íàäõîäæåííÿ, ïîêðàùåííÿ ³íâåñòèö³éíîãî êë³ìàòó òà éîãî ðîëü â ³íâåñòóâàííþ á³çíåñó. ²íø³ ðîáîòè ôîêóñóþòüñÿ íà SMART KPI äëÿ îö³íêè ñòðàòåã³é, ³íòåãðîâàíèõ ³ç öèôðîâîþ åêîíîì³êîþ, òà ï³äêðåñëþþòü çíà÷åííÿ ³ííîâàö³éíèõ òåõíîëîã³é ó ï³äâèùåíí³ åôåêòèâíîñò³. Ãëîáàëüí³ çâ³òè ïðî åêîíîì³÷íó áåçïåêó 2025 ðîêó âêàçóþòü íà çðîñòàííÿ ðîë³ ê³áåððèçèê³â ³ íåîáõ³äí³ñòü ¿õ âêëþ÷åííÿ â îö³íêó åôåêòèâíîñò³ á³çíåñó. Âîäíî÷àñ íàóêîâî–ìåòîäè÷íå ï³ä´ðóíòÿ ç ïèòàíü óïðàâë³ííÿ åêîíîì³÷íîþ áåçïåêîþ íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà, çàëèøàþòüñÿ íåäîñòàòíüî îïðàöüîâàíèìè. Çîêðåìà, ïîòðåáóþòü ïîäàëüøîãî äîñë³äæåííÿ ïèòàííÿ îö³íêè åôåêòèâíîñò³ á³çíåñó òà ³íâåñòóâàííÿ ÿê ³íñòðóìåíò â óïðàâë³íí³ åêîíîì³÷íîþ áåçïåêîþ íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà. Çàãàëîì, äîñë³äæåííÿ ï³äêðåñëþº ïîòðåáó â óí³âåðñàëüíèõ ìîäåëÿõ îö³íêè, ÿê³ á ïîºäíóâàëè ì³êðî– òà ìàêðîåêîíîì³÷í³ àñïåêòè, àëå òàêèõ ìîäåëåé ïîêè áðàêóº, îñîáëèâî â óìîâàõ ãåîïîë³òè÷íî¿ íåñòàá³ëüíîñò³. Ìåòîþ ñòàòò³ º êîìïëåêñíå äîñë³äæåííÿ îö³íêè åôåêòèâíîñò³ á³çíåñó òà ³íâåñòóâàííÿ ÿê ô³íàíñîâîãî ³íñòðóìåíòó óïðàâë³ííÿ åêîíîì³÷íîþ áåçïåêîþ íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà, ç àêöåíòîì íà ìåòîäè, ³íäèêàòîðè òà ïðàêòè÷í³ ðåêîìåíäàö³¿, ùî âêëþ÷àº àíàë³ç âçàºìîçâ’ÿçêó ì³æ åôåêòèâí³ñòþ á³çíåñó òà ìàêðîåêîíîì³÷íîþ áåçïåêîþ, ðîçðîáêó òàáëèöü ³ ñõåì äëÿ â³çóàë³çàö³¿ ïðîöåñ³â, à òàêîæ ôîðìóëþâàííÿ âèñíîâê³â äëÿ åêîíîì³÷íî¿ ïîë³òèêè òà ôîðìóâàííÿ ñïðèÿòëèâîãî ³íâåñòèö³éíîãî êë³ìàòó. Âèêëàä îñíîâíîãî ìàòåð³àëó äîñë³äæåííÿ. Ó â³ò÷èçíÿí³é òà çàðóá³æí³é åêîíîì³÷í³é ë³òåðàòóð³ ³ñíóº äåê³ëüêà äåñÿòê³â òðàêòóâàíü ïîíÿòü «áåçïåêà» òà «åêîíîì³÷íà áåçïåêà». Ó êðà¿íàõ Çàõ³äíî¿ ªâðîïè êîíöåïò «áåçïåêà» ñòàâ óæèâàòèñÿ íàïðèê³íö³ XII ñò. ³ òðàêòóâàâñÿ ÿê ñòàí â³äñóòíîñò³ àáî íåéòðàë³çàö³¿ çàãðîç òà íåáåçïåêè. Íà äóìêó Ñ.Ì. Øêàðëåò [1], êàòåãîð³ÿ «áåçïåêà» ó ñëîâ’ÿíñüêîìó ñóñï³ëüñòâ³ ç’ÿâèëàñÿ â ñåðåäèí³ XV ñò. ÿê ðåàêö³ÿ íà çàõâàòíèöüê³ ïîñÿãàííÿ Çîëîòî¿ Îðäè. Ó XVII ñò. äàíå ïîíÿòòÿ âæå â³äíîñÿòü äî äåðæàâíèõ ³ çàãàëüíîâèçíàíèõ. Ïî÷èíàþ÷è ç 80–õ ðîê³â XX ñò. ðîçïî÷àëàñÿ øèðîêîìàñøòàáíà íàóêîâà ðîçðîáêà êàòåãîð³¿ «áåçïåêà» óñòàíîâàìè ïðîâ³äíèõ êðà¿í ñâ³òó, íàéá³ëüø â³äîìèìè ç íèõ º Ëîíäîíñüêèé ³íñòèòóò ñòðàòåã³÷íèõ äîñë³äæåíü ³ Ñòîêãîëüìñüêèé ³íñòèòóò äîñë³äæåíü áåçïåêè [2], à â 90–õ ðîêàõ öÿ ïðîáëåìà çàö³êàâèëà é â³ò÷èçíÿíèõ àâòîð³â [3; 4; 5; 6]. Ïîãîäèìîñÿ ç äóìêîþ Î.Â. Ì³ðîøíè÷åíêî, ùî åêîíîì³÷íà áåçïåêà º îäíèì ³ç âèçíà÷àëüíèõ ñêëàäîâèõ åëåìåíò³â ñèñòåìè íàö³îíàëüíî¿ áåçïåêè [7]. Ç áàãàòîð³÷íîãî äîñâ³äó â³äîìî, ùî ëèøå íàä³éíà òà åôåêòèâíà ñèñòåìà çàáåçïå÷åííÿ åêîíîì³÷íî¿ áåçïåêè º íåîáõ³äíîþ óìîâîþ äëÿ ñòàá³ëüíîãî òà ñò³éêîãî ñîö³àëüíî–åêîíîì³÷íîãî ðîçâèòêó äåðæàâè ³ çàõèñòó ¿¿ íåçàëåæíîñò³. Ð.Ì. Äàöê³â ïîä³ëÿº åêîíîì³÷íó áåçïåêó íà: çîâí³øíþ – ìîæëèâ³ñòü ïðîòèñòîÿòè çàãðîçàì, ÿê³ ïîðîäæóº çîâí³øíº íàâêîëèøíº ñåðåäîâèùå äåðæàâè; âíóòð³øíþ, â ÿê³é âåëèêå çíà÷åííÿ ìàº ðîçâèòîê åêîíîì³÷íî–îáîðîííîãî ïîòåíö³àëó [8]. Íà äóìêó Î. Áàæåíîâî¿, îñíîâíèìè ñòðóêòóðíèìè åëåìåíòàìè åêîíîì³÷íî¿ áåçïåêè, ÿê³ äîö³ëüíî çàñòîñîâóâàòè äëÿ àíàë³çó åêîíîì³÷íî¿ áåçïåêè Óêðà¿íè, º òàê³ [9]: ñèðîâèííî–ðåñóðñíà áåçïåêà, åíåðãåòè÷- íà áåçïåêà, ô³íàíñîâà áåçïåêà, ñîö³àëüíà áåçïåêà, ³ííîâàö³éíî–òåõíîëîã³÷íà áåçïåêà, ïðîäîâîëü- ÷à áåçïåêà, çîâí³øíüîåêîíîì³÷íà áåçïåêà. Çàáåçïå÷åííÿ åêîíîì³÷íî¿ áåçïåêè íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà ìîæëèâèé íà îñíîâ³ ðîçâèòêó ñò³éêèõ ôóíêö³é ãîñïîäàðñüêî¿ ä³ÿëüíîñò³ á³çíåñ–ñòðóêòóð çà óìîâè çàõèñòó òàêèõ ñóá’ºêò³â íà âñ³õ åòàïàõ ¿õíüîãî ôóíêö³îíóâàííÿ ³ çàëåæèòü â³ä âïëèâó áàãàòüîõ ôàêòîð³â [10]. Ö³ ôàêòîðè ÷èíÿòü ñèñòåìàòè÷íèé âïëèâ íà ä³ÿëüí³ñòü îêðåìèõ ñóá’ºêò³â á³çíåñó çà äîïîìîãîþ ñï³ëüíî¿ âçàºìîä³¿ ³ ôîðìóþ÷è ïåâíèé òèñê íà ¿õ ôóíêö³¿. Åôåêòèâíèì ³íñòðóìåíòîì ðîçâèòêó ³ ôóíêö³îíóâàííÿ á³çíåñ–ñòðóêòóð â íèí³øí³õ óìîâàõ º óïðàâë³íñüêà ôóíêö³ÿ àíàë³òèêè, ïðîãíîçóâàííÿ ³ ñèñòåìíå ïëàíóâàííÿ, ÿê³ ñëóæèòü ïëàòôîðìîþ äëÿ ìàéáóòíüîãî ðîçâèòêó ³ äîçâîëÿº ïðîòèñòîÿòè âèíèêàþ÷èì êðèçîâèì ÿâèùàì, ïîì’ÿêøóâàòè ¿õ íàñë³äêè ³ óíåìîæëèâëþâàòè ïðîãíîçóâàííÿ ³ áàíêðóòñòâî. Êîìïëåêñ ñèñòåìíèõ çàõîä³â ó â³äïîâ³äü ïîâ’ÿçàíèé ç óìîâàìè øâèäêîãî ³ íåïåðåäáà÷óâàíîãî âèíèêíåííÿ êðèçè, ùî äàº ìîæ- ÅÊÎÍÎÌ²×Í² ÏÐÎÁËÅÌÈ ÐÎÇÂÈÒÊÓ ÃÀËÓÇÅÉ ÒÀ ÂÈÄ²Â ÅÊÎÍÎÌ²×ÍÎ¯ Ä²ßËÜÍÎÑÒ² 88 ´ÎÐÌÓÂÀÍÍßÐÈÍÊÎÂÈÕÂÄÍÎÑÈÍÂ³ÊÐÀÍww ëèâ³ñòü ðîçðîáèòè ìåõàí³çìè ìîí³òîðèíãó òà ¿¿ âèÿâëåííÿ, à òàêîæ ñòâîðèòè ìåõàí³çìè ïîïåðåäæåííÿ ³ çàïîá³ãàííÿ êðèçè çà äîïîìîãîþ ìåõàí³çìó àíòèêðèçîâîãî óïðàâë³ííÿ á³çíåñ–ñòðóêòóðîþ [11]. Îäíèì ³ç òàêèõ ³íñòðóìåíò³â â óïðàâë³íí³ åêîíîì³÷íîþ áåçïåêîþ íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà º îö³íêà åôåêòèâíîñò³ á³çíåñó. Ð³øåííÿ ïðî ³íâåñòóâàííÿ â êîíòåêñò³ åêîíîì³÷íî¿ áåçïåêè íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà ïðèéìàþòüñÿ íà îñíîâ³ îö³íêè åôåêòèâíîñò³ á³çíåñó, ÿêà º áàãàòîãðàííèì ïðîöåñîì, ÿêèé îõîïëþº ô³íàíñîâ³, îïåðàö³éí³, ³ííîâàö³éí³ òà ñîö³àëüí³ àñïåêòè. Âîíà âèñòóïàº ³íñòðóìåíòîì çàáåçïå÷åííÿ åêîíîì³÷íî¿ áåçïåêè íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà, äîçâîëÿþ÷è âèÿâëÿòè ñèñòåìí³ çàãðîçè òà îïòèì³çóâàòè âíåñîê á³çíåñó â åêîíîì³êó. Îñíîâí³ ñêëàäîâ³ îö³íêè âêëþ÷àþòü àíàë³ç êëþ÷îâèõ ïîêàçíèê³â åôåêòèâíîñò³ (KPI), òàêèõ ÿê ðåíòàáåëüí³ñòü, ïðîäóêòèâí³ñòü ïðàö³, îáîðîòí³ñòü àêòèâ³â òà ³ííîâàö³éíà àêòèâí³ñòü, ÿê³ âïëèâàþòü íà ð³âåíü áåçïåêè êðà¿íè [12]. Îñíîâíèìè ï³äõîäàìè äî îö³íêè åôåêòèâíîñò³ á³çíåñó â êîíòåêñò³ ³íâåñòóâàííÿ òà óïðàâë³ííÿ åêîíîì³÷íîþ áåçïåêîþ íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà º: Ô³íàíñîâèé ï³äõ³ä: Àíàë³ç ðåíòàáåëüíîñò³ àêòèâ³â (ROA), ë³êâ³äíîñò³ òà ð³âíÿ çàáîðãîâàíîñò³ äîçâîëÿº îö³íèòè âíåñîê á³çíåñó â ô³íàíñîâó ñòàá³ëüí³ñòü åêîíîì³êè. Íàïðèêëàä, âèñîêèé ROA (>10%) ñïðèÿº íàêîïè÷åííþ êàï³òàëó òà çíèæåííþ çàëåæíîñò³ â³ä çîâí³øíüîãî ô³íàíñóâàííÿ. Îïåðàö³éíèé ï³äõ³ä: Îö³íêà ïðîäóêòèâíîñò³ ïðàö³ òà ôîíäîâ³ääà÷³ äîïîìàãàº âèçíà÷èòè åôåêòèâí³ñòü âèêîðèñòàííÿ ðåñóðñ³â, ùî çíèæóº ðèçèêè íååôåêòèâíîãî âèðîáíèöòâà òà çàëåæíîñò³ â³ä ³ìïîðòó. ²ííîâàö³éíèé ï³äõ³ä: Àíàë³ç âèòðàò íà ÍÄÄÊÐ òà êîåô³ö³ºíòà ³ííîâàö³éíî¿ àêòèâíîñò³ ñïðèÿº ï³äâèùåííþ êîíêóðåíòîñïðîìîæíîñò³ íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè íà ãëîáàëüíèõ ðèíêàõ. Öèôðîâèé ï³äõ³ä: Îö³íêà ê³áåðçàõèñòó òà àâòîìàòèçàö³¿ á³çíåñ–ïðîöåñ³â äîçâîëÿº ì³í³ì³çóâàòè öèôðîâ³ ðèçèêè, ÿê³ âïëèâàþòü íà åêîíîì³÷íó áåçïåêó. Ñèñòåìàòè÷íèé ï³äõ³ä: Âèêîðèñòàííÿ ôîðìàë³çîâàíèõ ïîêàçíèê³â ³ ïîðîãîâèõ çíà÷åíü äëÿ îö³íêè âíåñêó á³çíåñó â åêîíîì³êó â äèíàì³ö³, îñîáëèâî â êðèçîâèõ óìîâàõ [13]. Ó êîíòåêñò³ çîâí³øí³õ âïëèâ³â, òàêèõ ÿê âîºíí³ ä³¿ ÷è åêîíîì³÷í³ ñàíêö³¿, îö³íêà ïðîâîäèòüñÿ çà äîïîìîãîþ åêñïîíåíö³éíèõ ìîäåëåé, ÿê³ ïðîãíîçóþòü çíèæåííÿ åôåêòèâíîñò³ ÷åðåç ôàêòîðè, òàê³ ÿê ëîã³ñòè÷í³ ïåðåáî¿ ÷è çðîñòàííÿ ö³í íà åíåðãîíîñ³¿. Äëÿ ñòðàòåã³÷íèõ ñåêòîð³â, òàêèõ ÿê àãðàðíèé ÷è ïðîìèñëîâèé, çàñòîñîâóºòüñÿ ñèñòåìàòè÷íèé ï³äõ³ä ³ç ïîðîãîâèìè çíà÷åííÿìè, ùî äîçâîëÿþòü îö³íþâàòè áåçïåêó â ðåàëüíîìó ÷àñ³. Ñó÷àñí³ òåíäåíö³¿, òàê³ ÿê öèôðîâà òðàíñôîðìàö³ÿ, äîäàþòü íîâ³ âèì³ðè äî îö³íêè. Öèôðîâ³ ³íñòðóìåíòè, âêëþ÷àþ÷è AI òà àíàë³òèêó âåëèêèõ äàíèõ, äîçâîëÿþòü àâòîìàòèçóâàòè àíàë³ç KPI, ï³äâèùóþ÷è òî÷í³ñòü ïðîãíîçóâàííÿ ðèçèê³â. Íàïðèêëàä, âïðîâàäæåííÿ öèôðîâèõ ð³øåíü ìîæå ï³äâèùèòè åôåêòèâí³ñòü á³çíåñó íà 15–25%, ùî ñïðèÿº åêîíîì³÷í³é áåçïåö³ ÷åðåç çðîñòàííÿ ïîäàòêîâèõ íàäõîäæåíü òà çàéíÿòîñò³. Ó âîºííèõ óìîâàõ îö³íêà åôåêòèâíîñò³ á³çíåñó ïîâèííà âêëþ÷àòè ³íäèêàòîðè ñò³éêîñò³, òàê³ ÿê äèâåðñèô³êàö³ÿ ðèíê³â çáóòó òà ðåçåðâí³ ôîíäè [14]. Äëÿ ³ëþñòðàö³¿ ïðîïîíóºòüñÿ òàáëèöÿ êëþ÷îâèõ ³íäèêàòîð³â îö³íêè åôåêòèâíîñò³ á³çíåñó â êîíòåêñò³ åêîíîì³÷íî¿ áåçïåêè íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà. Äàí³ ïîêàçíèêè äîçâîëÿþòü îö³íþâàòè åôåêòèâí³ñòü á³çíåñó â êîíòåêñò³ åêîíîì³÷íî¿ áåçïåêè íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà, âèÿâëÿþ÷è â³äõèëåííÿ â³ä ïîðîãîâèõ çíà÷åíü ÿê ñèãíàëè ïîòåíö³éíèõ çàãðîç. Äëÿ ³ëþñòðàö³¿ òåîðåòè÷íèõ ïîëîæåíü ðîçãëÿíåíî ïðèêëàä óêðà¿íñüêîãî àãðîõîëäèíãó – ÒÎÂ «Ìèðîí³âñüêèé õë³áîïðîäóêò» (ÌÕÏ), îäíîãî ç íàéá³ëüøèõ âèðîáíèê³â ïòèö³ òà åêñïîðòåð³â ì’ÿñà â ªâðîï³. ÌÕÏ ïðàöþº â óìîâàõ âîºííèõ ðèçèê³â, çðîñòàííÿ ö³í íà åíåðãîíîñ³¿ òà ëîã³ñòè÷íèõ îáìåæåíü, ùî ðîáèòü îö³íêó åôåêòèâíîñò³ êðèòè÷íîþ äëÿ çàáåçïå÷åííÿ åêîíîì³÷íî¿ áåçïåêè. Íà îñíîâ³ ð³÷íîãî çâ³òó çà ô³íàíñîâèé ð³ê 2024 (FY2024), ïðîàíàë³çîâàíî êëþ÷îâ³ ³íäèêàòîðè [14]. Ó FY2024 ÌÕÏ äîñÿã çðîñòàííÿ äîõîäó íà 7% äî 3,1 ìëðä USD, ïåðåâàæíî çà ðàõóíîê åêñïîðòó ïòèö³ (íà 15% äî 1,8 ìëí òîíí) òà ðîçøèðåííÿ âíóòð³øíüîãî ðèíêó. Îäíàê ÷èñòèé ïðèáóòîê çíèçèâñÿ íà 20% äî 210 ìëí USD ÷åðåç çðîñòàííÿ âèòðàò íà åíåðãîíîñ³¿ òà ëîã³ñòèêó. ROA ñêëàâ 8,5% (íèæ÷å ïîðîãîâîãî çíà÷åííÿ >10%), ùî âêàçóº íà ïîòåíö³éí³ ðèçèêè ô³íàíñîâî¿ áåçïåêè, ïîâ’ÿçàí³ ç íååôåêòèâíèì âèêîðèñòàííÿì àêòèâ³â (çàãàëüí³ àêòèâè – 2,9 ìëðä USD). Êîåô³ö³ºíò ë³êâ³äíîñò³ (current ratio) 1,7 ïåðåâèùóº ïîð³ã >1,5, ùî ñâ³ä÷èòü ïðî ñòàá³ëüíó êîðîòêîñòðîêîâó ïëàòîñïðîìîæí³ñòü [14]. Îïåðàö³éíà áåçïåêà ï³äòðèìóºòüñÿ âèñîêîþ ïðîäóêòèâí³ñòþ (óðîæàéí³ñòü çåðíîâèõ äëÿ êîðì³â – 1,2 ìëí òîíí, ìàðæà 28%), àëå EBITDA –ìàðæà çíèçèëàñÿ äî 12,3% ÷åðåç çîâí³øí³ ôàêòîðè, òà- ÅÊÎÍÎÌ²×Í² ÏÐÎÁËÅÌÈ ÐÎÇÂÈÒÊÓ ÃÀËÓÇÅÉ ÒÀ ÂÈÄ²Â ÅÊÎÍÎÌ²×ÍÎ¯ Ä²ßËÜÍÎÑÒ² 89 ´ÎÐÌÓÂÀÍÍßÐÈÍÊÎÂÈÕÂÄÍÎÑÈÍÂ³ÊÐÀÍww ê³ ÿê çðîñòàííÿ ö³í íà ïàëèâî. Ñèðîâèííà áåçïåêà çàáåçïå÷óºòüñÿ âåðòèêàëüíîþ ³íòåãðàö³ºþ (âëàñí³ êîðìîâ³ çàâîäè òà ëîã³ñòè÷í³ ïîòóæíîñò³), ùî çíèæóº ìàòåð³àëîºìí³ñòü äî 0,4. Åêîëîã³÷íà ñêëàäîâà ïîêðàùèëàñÿ çàâäÿêè ³íâåñòèö³ÿì ó á³îãàçîâ³ óñòàíîâêè, ùî çíèçèëî åíåðãîºìí³ñòü íà 15% ïîð³âíÿíî ç ïîïåðåäí³ì ðîêîì [15]. Öåé àíàë³ç ïîêàçóº, ÿê îö³íêà åôåêòèâíîñò³ äîçâîëÿº ÌÕÏ âèÿâëÿòè ðèçèêè (íàïðèêëàä, çíèæåííÿ ðåíòàáåëüíîñò³ ÷åðåç âîºíí³ ôàêòîðè) òà âïðîâàäæóâàòè çàõîäè, òàê³ ÿê ðîçøèðåííÿ åêñïîðòíèõ ðèíê³â ³ ³íâåñòèö³¿ â åíåðãîåôåêòèâí³ñòü, äëÿ ï³äâèùåííÿ åêîíîì³÷íî¿ áåçïåêè [17]. Ñõåìà ïðîöåñó ìîæå áóòè ïðåäñòàâëåíà ÿê ïîñë³äîâíèé àëãîðèòì (îïèñàíèé òåêñòîì äëÿ â³çóàë³çàö³¿): 1. Çá³ð äàíèõ: Àíàë³ç ô³íàíñîâî¿ çâ³òíîñò³, KPI òà çîâí³øí³õ ôàêòîð³â. 2. Àíàë³ç ³íäèêàòîð³â: Âèêîðèñòàííÿ ìîäåëåé (àäèòèâíà, åêñïîíåíö³éíà) äëÿ ðîçðàõóíêó ð³âíÿ åôåêòèâíîñò³. 3. Âèÿâëåííÿ çàãðîç: Ïîð³âíÿííÿ ç ïîðîãîâèìè çíà÷åííÿìè; êëàñèô³êàö³ÿ ð³âíÿ áåçïåêè (âèñîêèé, òðèâîæíèé, êðèòè÷íèé). 4. Ðîçðîáêà çàõîä³â: Ìîòèâàö³éí³ ïðîãðàìè, îïòèì³çàö³ÿ ïðîöåñ³â, ðèçèê–ìåíåäæìåíò. 5. Ìîí³òîðèíã: Äèíàì³÷íà îö³íêà â ðåàëüíîìó ÷àñ³ äëÿ êîðèãóâàííÿ. Â³çóàëüíî ñõåìà ìîæå âèãëÿäàòè ÿê flowchart: Ïî÷àòîê Çá³ð äàíèõ Àíàë³ç Âèÿâëåííÿ çàãðîç Çàõîäè Ìîí³òîðèíã Ê³íåöü (ç öèêëîì íàçàä äî àíàë³çó) [18]. Öÿ ñõåìà ³ëþñòðóº öèêë³÷íèé õàðàêòåð ïðîöåñó, çàáåçïå÷óþ÷è ïîñò³éíå ï³äâèùåííÿ áåçïåêè ÷åðåç åôåêòèâí³ñòü. Åêîíîì³÷íà áåçïåêà íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà çíà÷íîþ ì³ðîþ çàëåæèòü â³ä äåðæàâíî¿ ïîë³òèêè. Çã³äíî ç³ Ñòðàòåã³ºþ åêîíîì³÷íî¿ áåçïåêè Óêðà¿íè íà ïåð³îä äî 2025 ðîêó, äåðæàâà âèçíà÷àº åêîíîì³÷íó áåçïåêó ÿê ñòàí çàõèùåíîñò³ íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè â³ä çîâí³øí³õ ³ âíóòð³øÑêëàäîâà áåçïåêè Êëþ÷îâ³ ³íäèêàòîðè åôåêòèâíîñò³ Ïîðîãîâå çíà÷åííÿ (âèñîêèé ð³âåíü) Äæåðåëî âïëèâó íà áåçïåêó Ô³íàíñîâà Ðåíòàáåëüí³ñòü àêòèâ³â (ROA), êîåô³ö³ºíò ë³êâ³äíîñò³ ROA > 10%, Ë³êâ³äí³ñòü > 1.5 Çàáåçïå÷óº ñò³éê³ñòü äî êðèç Îïåðàö³éíà Ïðîäóêòèâí³ñòü ïðàö³, ôîíäîâ³ääà÷à Ïðîäóêòèâí³ñòü > ãàëóçåâèé ñåðåäí³é Çíèæóº ðèçèêè íååôåêòèâíîãî âèêîðèñòàííÿ ðåñóðñ³â Ñèðîâèííà Ìàòåð³àëîºìí³ñòü, ÷àñòêà ³ìïîðòó Ìàòåð³àëîºìí³ñòü < 0.5 Çàïîá³ãàº çàëåæíîñò³ â³ä ïîñòà- ÷àëüíèê³â Öèôðîâà ×àñòîòà ê³áåð³íöèäåíò³â, ð³âåíü àâòîìàòèçàö³¿ ²íöèäåíòè < 1 íà ð³ê Çàõèñò â³ä öèôðîâèõ çàãðîç Ñîö³àëüíà Ïëèíí³ñòü êàäð³â, çàðïëàòîâ³ääà÷à Ïëèíí³ñòü < 10% Ï³äâèùåííÿ ñîö³àëüíî¿ ñòàá³ëüíîñò³ ²ííîâàö³éíà Êîåô³ö³ºíò ³ííîâàö³éíî¿ àêòèâíîñò³ > 5% â³ä âèòðàò íà ÍÄÄÊÐ Ñïðèÿº êîíêóðåíòîñïðîìîæíîñò³ Òàáëèöÿ 1. Êëþ÷îâ³ ³íäèêàòîðè îö³íêè åôåêòèâíîñò³ á³çíåñó â êîíòåêñò³ åêîíîì³÷íî¿ áåçïåêè íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà* *Äæåðåëî: ïîáóäîâàíî çà äàíèìè [13] Òàáëèöÿ 2. Àäàïòîâàíà òàáëèöÿ ³íäèêàòîð³â äëÿ ÌÕÏ (FY2024)* Ñêëàäîâà áåçïåêè Êëþ÷îâ³ ³íäèêàòîðè åôåêòèâíîñò³ Çíà÷åííÿ äëÿ «Êåðíåë» (FY2024) Îö³íêà â³äíîñíî ïîðîãó Ðåêîìåíäàö³¿ Ô³íàíñîâà ROA, Êîåô³ö³ºíò ë³êâ³äíîñò³ ROA: 8,5%; Ë³êâ³äí³ñòü: 1,7 ROA – íèæ÷å (>10%); Ë³êâ³äí³ñòü – äîáðèé Îïòèì³çàö³ÿ àêòèâ³â ÷åðåç ïðîäàæ íåïðîô³ëüíèõ îá’ºêò³â Îïåðàö³éíà EBITDA–ìàðæà, Îáñÿãè åêñïîðòó EBITDA: 12,3%; Åêñïîðò: +15% Íèæ÷å ñåðåäíüîãî; Åêñïîðò – âèñîêèé Äèâåðñèô³êàö³ÿ åêñïîðòíèõ ìàðøðóò³â Ñèðîâèííà Ìàòåð³àëîºìí³ñòü 0,4 Âèñîêèé Ðîçøèðåííÿ âëàñíèõ ïîòóæíîñòåé Åêîëîã³÷íà Åíåðãîºìí³ñòü Çíèæåíî íà 15% Â³äïîâ³äíî íîðìàì ²íâåñòèö³¿ â çåëåí³ òåõíîëîã³¿ Ñîö³àëüíà Çàéíÿò³ñòü, Ïëèíí³ñòü Çàéíÿò³ñòü: 95%; Ïëèíí³ñòü: 8% Âèñîêèé Ï³äòðèìêà ìîòèâàö³éíèõ ïðîãðàì *Äæåðåëî: ïîáóäîâàíî çà äàíèìè [16] ÅÊÎÍÎÌ²×Í² ÏÐÎÁËÅÌÈ ÐÎÇÂÈÒÊÓ ÃÀËÓÇÅÉ ÒÀ ÂÈÄ²Â ÅÊÎÍÎÌ²×ÍÎ¯ Ä²ßËÜÍÎÑÒ² 90 ´ÎÐÌÓÂÀÍÍßÐÈÍÊÎÂÈÕÂÄÍÎÑÈÍÂ³ÊÐÀÍww í³õ çàãðîç. Ðîëü äåðæàâè ïîëÿãàº â çàáåçïå÷åíí³ ìàêðîô³íàíñîâî¿ ñò³éêîñò³, ñòèìóëþâàíí³ ³íâåñòèö³é, ðîçâèòêó êðèòè÷íèõ ñåêòîð³â òà çàõèñò³ á³çíåñó â³ä ðèçèê³â. Íàïðèêëàä, äåðæàâí³ ïðîãðàìè ï³äòðèìêè åêñïîðòó, ñóáñèä³¿ íà åíåðãîåôåêòèâí³ñòü òà ï³ëüãîâå îïîäàòêóâàííÿ ìîæóòü ï³äâèùóâàòè åôåêòèâí³ñòü á³çíåñó. Â Óêðà¿í³ íèçüêå ïîäàòêîâå íàâàíòàæåííÿ (ïîð³âíÿíî ç ªÑ) º êîíêóðåíòíîþ ïåðåâàãîþ, àëå íåäîñòàòíÿ ï³äòðèìêà ³ííîâàö³é òà ê³áåðáåçïåêè ñòâîðþº âèêëèêè. Ó 2023 ðîö³ ³íäåêñ çîâí³øíüîåêîíîì³÷íî¿ áåçïåêè Óêðà¿íè çð³ñ äî 35,7% ç 31,5% ó 2022 ðîö³, àëå çàëèøàºòüñÿ íèçüêèì ÷åðåç â³éíó [19]. Â óìîâàõ âîºííîãî ñòàíó äåðæàâà â³ä³ãðàº êëþ- ÷îâó ðîëü ó ô³íàíñóâàíí³ ñåêòîðó îáîðîíè, çàáåçïå÷åíí³ åíåðãåòè÷íî¿ áåçïåêè òà ì³í³ì³çàö³¿ äåô³öèòó ðîáî÷î¿ ñèëè. Çîêðåìà, ïåðåçàâàíòàæåííÿ ³íñòèòóö³é (Áþðî åêîíîì³÷íî¿ áåçïåêè, Ìèòíèöÿ), äåò³í³çàö³ÿ åêîíîì³êè, ïðèñêîðåííÿ ïðèâàòèçàö³¿ òà áîðîòüáà ç êîðóïö³ºþ ñïðèÿþòü ïîêðàùåííþ á³çíåñ–êë³ìàòó òà ³íâåñòóâàííÿ. Äåðæàâà òàêîæ çàëó÷àº ì³æíàðîäíó äîïîìîãó (áëèçüêî 38 ìëðä äîë. ó 2025 ðîö³) äëÿ çáåðåæåííÿ ñò³éêîñò³, ðåñòðóêòóðèçàö³¿ áîðãó òà ðîçâèòêó ÎÏÊ. Äëÿ àãðàðíîãî ñåêòîðó, ÿêèé ôîðìóº äî 20% ÂÂÏ, äåðæàâà íàäàº ñóáñèä³¿ íà ïåðåðîáêó, ï³äòðèìêó ÌÑÁ òà ïðîãðàìè ïîâåðíåííÿ ÂÏÎ íà ðèíîê ïðàö³. Êð³ì òîãî, ³íòåãðàö³ÿ â ªÑ âèìàãàº â³ä äåðæàâè ïðèñêîðåííÿ ðåôîðì, â³äêðèòòÿ ïåðåãîâîðíèõ êëàñòåð³â òà âèêîíàííÿ Ukraine Facility äëÿ îòðèìàííÿ 12,5 ìëðä ºâðî ó 2025 ðîö³. Çàãàëîì, äåðæàâà âèñòóïàº êîîðäèíàòîðîì ì³æ á³çíåñîì ³ ñóñï³ëüñòâîì, çàáåçïå÷óþ÷è áàëàíñ ì³æ åôåêòèâí³ñòþ ï³äïðèºìñòâ ³ íàö³îíàëüíèìè ³íòåðåñàìè [20]. Ó 2025 ðîö³ åêîíîì³÷íà áåçïåêà Óêðà¿íè ñòèêàºòüñÿ ç ÷èñëåííèìè âèêëèêàìè, ïåðåâàæíî ïîâ’ÿçàíèìè ç â³éíîþ, òàêèìè ÿê íåâèçíà÷åí³ñòü ùîäî ¿¿ çàâåðøåííÿ, çàãðîçè åíåðãåòèö³, äåô³öèò ðîáî÷î¿ ñèëè òà ³íôëÿö³éíèé òèñê. Ïðîãíîçóºòüñÿ ïîñèëåííÿ ìàêðîåêîíîì³÷íèõ äèñáàëàíñ³â, çðîñòàííÿ ñòðóêòóðíîãî áåçðîá³òòÿ òà ðèçèêè äëÿ âàëþòíî¿ ñò³éêîñò³. Îäíàê ïåðñïåêòèâè âêëþ- ÷àþòü ïðèñêîðåííÿ ðåôîðì, ³íòåãðàö³þ â ªÑ òà â³äíîâëåííÿ åêñïîðòó. Äåðæàâà ïîâèííà ôîêóñóâàòèñÿ íà åíåðãåòè÷í³é áåçïåö³ (â³äíîâëåííÿ ïîòóæíîñòåé, ðîçïîä³ëåíà ãåíåðàö³ÿ), êðåäèòóâàíí³ (ðîçâèòîê äåðæàâíèõ áàíê³â, ñóáñèäîâàí³ ïðîãðàìè) òà äåò³í³çàö³¿. Äëÿ á³çíåñó, ÿê ÌÕÏ, öå îçíà÷àº àäàïòàö³þ äî ðèçèê³â ÷åðåç äèâåðñèô³êàö³þ òà ³íâåñòèö³¿ â ³ííîâàö³éí³ òåõíîëîã³¿. Çàãàëîì, 2025 ð³ê ìîæå ñòàòè ðîêîì ïåðåõîäó äî ñò³éêîãî çðîñòàííÿ çà óìîâè ì³æíàðîäíî¿ ï³äòðèìêè ³íâåñòèö³ÿìè òà åôåêòèâíèõ ðåôîðì [21]. Âèñíîâêè Îö³íêà åôåêòèâíîñò³ á³çíåñó º ñòðàòåã³÷íèì ³íñòðóìåíòîì óïðàâë³ííÿ åêîíîì³÷íîþ áåçïåêîþ íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà, ùî äîçâîëÿº âèÿâëÿòè âðàçëèâîñò³ íà ì³êðî– òà ìàêðîð³âíÿõ, ïðîãíîçóâàòè ðèçèêè òà îïòèì³çóâàòè ðåñóðñè äëÿ çàáåçïå÷åííÿ ñò³éêîñò³ åêîíîì³êè. Âèêîðèñòàííÿ êîìïëåêñíèõ ï³äõîä³â, òàêèõ ÿê ô³íàíñîâèé (àíàë³ç ROA, ë³êâ³äíîñò³), îïåðàö³éíèé (ïðîäóêòèâí³ñòü, åêñïîðò), ñîö³àëüíèé (çàéíÿò³ñòü, ïëèíí³ñòü), åêîëîã³÷íèé (åíåðãîºìí³ñòü, âèêèäè) òà öèôðîâèé (ê³áåðçàõèñò, àâòîìàòèçàö³ÿ), çàáåçïå÷óº ³íòåãðàö³þ îö³íêè åôåêòèâíîñò³ ç ñèñòåìîþ ðèçèê–ìåíåäæìåíòó, äîçâîëÿþ÷è ïåðåòâîðþâàòè çàãðîçè íà ìîæëèâîñò³ çðîñòàííÿ. Ó ñó÷àñíèõ óìîâàõ, îñîáëèâî â Óêðà¿í³, äå â³éíà ïîñèëþº ãåîïîë³òè÷í³ ðèçèêè, öÿ îö³íêà ñòàº íåâ³ä’ºìíîþ äëÿ ï³äòðèìêè ðîçâèòêó ï³äïðèºìíèöòâà, çðîñòàííÿ ÂÂÏ, çá³ëüøåííÿ çàéíÿòîñò³ òà ïîêðàùåííÿ êîíêóðåíòîñïðîìîæíîñò³ á³çíåñó. Ïðàêòè÷íèé ïðèêëàä ÒÎÂ «ÌÕÏ» äåìîíñòðóº, ÿê àíàë³ç KPI (ROA ~9%, EBITDA ç ïîçèòèâíîþ äèíàì³êîþ, â³äíîâëåííÿ åêñïîðòó â 6M 2025) äîçâîëÿº âèÿâëÿòè ðèçèêè, ïîâ’ÿçàí³ ç âîºííèìè óìîâàìè, òàêèìè ÿê çðîñòàííÿ âèòðàò íà åíåðãîíîñ³¿ òà ëîã³ñòè÷í³ ïåðåáî¿, òà ðîçðîáëÿòè çàõîäè äëÿ ¿õ ì³í³ì³çàö³¿, âêëþ÷àþ÷è äèâåðñèô³êàö³þ ðèíê³â, âåðòèêàëüíó ³íòåãðàö³þ òà ³íâåñòèö³¿ â çåëåí³ òåõíîëîã³¿. Öå íå ëèøå ï³äâèùóº ñò³éê³ñòü ï³äïðèºìñòâà, àëå é ñïðèÿº íàö³îíàëüí³é åêîíîì³÷í³é áåçïåö³ ÷åðåç âíåñîê ó ïðîäîâîëü÷ó áåçïåêó, åêñïîðò (ïîíàä 20% ÂÂÏ â³ä àãðàðíîãî ñåêòîðó) òà çàéíÿò³ñòü. Àíàëîã³÷íî, ðîëü äåðæàâè º öåíòðàëüíîþ: â³äïîâ³äíî äî Ñòðàòåã³¿ åêîíîì³÷- íî¿ áåçïåêè äî 2025 ðîêó, äåðæàâà çàáåçïå÷óº ìàêðîô³íàíñîâó ñò³éê³ñòü ÷åðåç áþäæåòíå ô³íàíñóâàííÿ îáîðîíè, çàëó÷åííÿ ì³æíàðîäíî¿ äîïîìîãè (38 ìëðä äîë. ó 2025), ðåñòðóêòóðèçàö³þ áîðãó òà îáåðåæíó ìîíåòàðíó ïîë³òèêó, ùî ñòðèìóº ³íôëÿö³þ òà ï³äòðèìóº âàëþòíó ñòàá³ëüí³ñòü. Êð³ì òîãî, äåðæàâà ñòèìóëþº á³çíåñ ÷åðåç ñóáñèä³¿, ïðèñêîðåííÿ ïðèâàòèçàö³¿, äåò³í³çàö³þ òà ðåôîðìè ³íñòèòóö³é (ÁÅÁ, Ìèòíèöÿ), ùî ïîêðàùóº á³çíåñ–êë³ìàò ³ çíèæóº êîðóïö³éí³ ðèçèêè. Âèêëèêè 2025 ðîêó, òàê³ ÿê äåô³öèò ðîáî÷î¿ ñèëè, çàãðîçè åíåðãåòèö³, ³íôëÿö³éíèé òèñê òà ñòðóê- ÅÊÎÍÎÌ²×Í² ÏÐÎÁËÅÌÈ ÐÎÇÂÈÒÊÓ ÃÀËÓÇÅÉ ÒÀ ÂÈÄ²Â ÅÊÎÍÎÌ²×ÍÎ¯ Ä²ßËÜÍÎÑÒ² 91 ´ÎÐÌÓÂÀÍÍßÐÈÍÊÎÂÈÕÂÄÍÎÑÈÍÂ³ÊÐÀÍww òóðíå áåçðîá³òòÿ, âèìàãàþòü â³ä äåðæàâè òà á³çíåñó ñï³ëüíèõ çóñèëü äëÿ çàáåçïå÷åííÿ åíåðãåòè÷íî¿ áåçïåêè (â³äíîâëåííÿ ïîòóæíîñòåé, ðîçïîä³ëåíà ãåíåðàö³ÿ), ïðèñêîðåííÿ êðåäèòóâàííÿ (ðîçâèòîê äåðæàâíèõ áàíê³â, ïðîãðàìè äëÿ ÌÑÁ) òà ³íòåãðàö³¿ â ªÑ (â³äêðèòòÿ êëàñòåð³â, âèêîíàííÿ Ukraine Facility äëÿ 12,5 ìëðä ºâðî). Ïåðñïåêòèâè âêëþ÷àþòü ïðèñêîðåííÿ ðåôîðì, ïîâåðíåííÿ ÂÏÎ íà ðèíîê ïðàö³ òà íàðîùóâàííÿ åêñïîðòó, ùî ìîæå ïðèçâåñòè äî ñò³éêîãî çðîñòàííÿ ÂÂÏ. Ðåãóëÿðíà îö³íêà åôåêòèâíîñò³ ç âèêîðèñòàííÿì àâòîìàòèçîâàíèõ ³íñòðóìåíò³â, òàêèõ ÿê AI äëÿ àíàë³çó KPI, öèêë³÷íèõ àóäèò³â òà ìîòèâàö³éíèõ ïðîãðàì, àäàïòîâàíèõ äî ãàëóçåâî¿ ñïåöèô³êè, íå ëèøå ï³äâèùóº ô³íàíñîâó òà îïåðàö³éíó ñò³éê³ñòü ô³ðì, àëå é ñïðèÿº äîâãîñòðîêîâ³é êîíêóðåíòîñïðîìîæíîñò³ íàö³îíàëüíî¿ åêîíîì³êè â óìîâàõ ãëîáàëüíî¿ íåâèçíà÷åíîñò³. Ó ï³äñóìêó, ³íòåãðàö³ÿ îö³íêè åôåêòèâíîñò³ á³çíåñó, ³íâåñòóâàííÿ, â òîìó ÷èñë³ ³ç çàëó÷åííÿì ì³æíàðîäíèõ ³íâåñòèö³é òà äåðæàâíî¿ ïîë³òèêè º òèìè ³ííîâàö³éíèìè ô³íàíñîâèìè ³íñòðóìåíòàìè äî ïîäîëàííÿ ñèñòåìíèõ âèêëèê³â, òàêèõ ÿê â³éíà òà åêîíîì³÷íà íåñòàá³ëüí³ñòü, äîçâîëÿþ- ÷è äîñÿãòè ñïðàâåäëèâîãî ìèðó, ÷ëåíñòâà â ªÑ äî 2030 ðîêó òà â³äíîâëåííÿ êðà¿íè. Äëÿ ïðàêòè÷íî¿ ðåàë³çàö³¿ ðåêîìåíäóºòüñÿ âïðîâàäæóâàòè ³íòåãðîâàí³ ñèñòåìè ìîí³òîðèíãó, ùî ïîºäíóþòü á³çíåñ–àíàë³òèêó ç ³íâåñòèö³éíèìè òà äåðæàâíèìè ðåãóëÿòîðíèìè ìåõàí³çìàìè, à òàêîæ ðîçâèâàòè äåðæàâíî–ïðèâàòíå ïàðòíåðñòâî (PPP) ì³æ äåðæàâîþ, á³çíåñîì òà ì³æíàðîäíèìè îðãàí³çàö³ÿìè. Ïîäàëüø³ äîñë³äæåííÿ ìîæóòü ôîêóñóâàòèñÿ íà ðîçðîáö³ óí³âåðñàëüíèõ ìîäåëåé îö³íêè äëÿ ð³çíèõ ñåêòîð³â, âðàõîâóþ÷è ï³ñëÿâîºííå â³äíîâëåííÿ, öèôðîâó òðàíñôîðìàö³þ, øòó÷íèé ³íòåëåêò òà åêîëîã³÷í³ ôàêòîðè, àáè çàáåçïå÷èòè âñåá³÷íó åêîíîì³÷íó áåçïåêó äëÿ âñ³õ ð³âí³â íàö³îíàëüíîãî ãîñïîäàðñòâà. Öå âñå º ïåðåäóìîâîþ ïîêðàùåííÿ ³íâåñòèö³éíîãî êë³ìàòó ÿê â ðåã³îíàõ, òàê ³ â êðà¿í³ â ö³ëîìó ç ìåòîþ çàëó÷åííÿ ³íâåñòèö³é ó â³äáóäîâó öèâ³ëüíîãî æèòëà, ô³íàíñóâàííÿ â³äíîâëþþ÷èõ ³íôðàñòðóêòóðíèõ ïðîåêò³â, çàáåçïå÷åííÿ ñòàëîãî ñîö³àëüíî–åêîíîì³÷íîãî ðîçâèòêó êðà¿íè. Ñïèñîê âèêîðèñòàíèõ äæåðåë: 1. Øêàðëåò Ñ.Ì. Åâîëþö³ÿ êàòåãîð³¿ «áåçïåêà» â íàóêîâîìó òà åêîíîì³÷íîìó ñåðåäîâèù³. Ôîðìóâàííÿ ðèíêîâèõ â³äíîñèí. 2007. ¹ 6. Ñ. 7–12. 2. Ñêîðóê Î.Â. Åêîíîì³÷íà áåçïåêà äåðæàâè: ñóòí³ñòü, ñêëàäîâ³ åëåìåíòè òà ïðîáëåìè çàáåçïå÷åííÿ. Íàóêîâèé â³ñíèê Óæãîðîäñüêîãî íàö³îíàëüíîãî óí³âåðñèòåòó. Ñåð³ÿ: Ì³æíàðîäí³ åêîíîì³÷í³ â³äíîñèíè òà ñâ³òîâå ãîñïîäàðñòâî. 2016. Âèï. 6(3). Ñ. 39–42. 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