JOURNAL OF WATER RESEARCH AND ENGINEERING Vol.1, No 1 ISSN: 3105-8973
67
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17530281
Recei ed: 13 Oc obe 2025; Accep ed: 1 No embe 2025
SECTORAL WATER CONSUMPTION AND EXTRACTION IN MONGOLIA:
TRENDS AND ANALYTICAL OPTIMIZATION
Zolzaya Gungaa1, Usukhbaya Baya saikhan2
1Depa men o S a is ics and Econome ics, School o Economics and Business, MULS, Mongolia
2Depa men o Compu e Science, School o Applied Sciences, MULS, Mongolia
Email: [email protected]
Abs ac : Wa e esou ces in Mongolia a e subjec o inc easing p essu e due o clima e a iabili y, une en geog aphical
dis ibu ion, and sec o al demand dispa i ies. In 2023, na ional wa e ex ac ion o aled 2,140.1 million m³, wi h 78.9%
om su ace sou ces and 21.1% om g oundwa e , while o al consump ion eached 440.8 million m³. Ag icul u e
domina ed usage a o e 75%, ollowed by mining, ene gy, manu ac u ing, and cons uc ion, indica ing high sec o al
concen a ion and po en ial ine iciencies. This s udy quan i a i ely analyzes sec o al wa e consump ion and ex ac ion
om 2019–2023, employing he Compound Annual G ow h Ra e (CAGR), linea end ex apola ion, and cons ained
op imiza ion using he Lag ange mul iplie me hod. Fo ecas s o 2025 e eal s able o mode a ely declining consump ion
in mos sec o s, excep o apid inc eases in mining, cons uc ion, and sewe age in as uc u e. Sec o -speci ic co ela ions
be ween consump ion and ex ac ion a y: ag icul u e, o es y, ishe ies, hun ing shows an almos pe ec posi i e
associa ion (R² ≈ 0.99), whe eas household wa e use exhibi s a weak nega i e ela ionship (R² ≈ 0.29), e lec ing e iciency
imp o emen s. Op imiza ion esul s, cons ained by a o al esou ce o 2,194.3 million m³, sugges subs an ial ealloca ion
is necessa y o maximize economic e iciency: ag icul u al consump ion should dec ease by 29%, while mining, elec ici y
gene a ion, and manu ac u ing should inc ease by 565–8,700%, p io i izing sec o s wi h high economic e u ns. These
indings demons a e ha cu en wa e -use pa e ns a e subop imal, wi h esou ce misalloca ion limi ing o e all sys em
e iciency. The s udy p o ides a i s -o -i s-kind e idence-based amewo k o in eg a ed wa e esou ce managemen in
Mongolia, combining s a is ical analysis and ma hema ical p og amming o e alua e in e sec o al ela ionships, o ecas
ends, and guide s a egic alloca ion. By highligh ing he ade-o s be ween economic bene i s, sec o al demand, and
sus ainable usage, he esea ch in o ms na ional wa e policy, suppo s SDG 6 objec i es, and unde sco es he need o
balancing consump ion e iciency wi h en i onmen al and social conside a ions. This in eg a i e app oach es ablishes a
me hodological ounda ion o long- e m planning, p omo ing equi able, sus ainable, and economically op imized wa e
esou ce managemen in a id and semi-a id con ex s.
Keywo ds: Compound Annual G ow h Ra e, Lag ange Mul iplie Me hod, Wa e Use E iciency, Resou ce ealloca ion
I. INTRODUCTION
The componen s o he Ea h’s a mosphe e,
hyd osphe e, li hosphe e, and biosphe e exis in a s a e o
dynamic in e connec ion and con inuous ans o ma ion,
whe e human economic ac i i ies exe bo h di ec and
indi ec in luences on his agile equilib ium [1]. Fac o s
such as clima e change, popula ion g ow h, and indus ial
concen a ion ha e in ensi ied wa e esou ce u iliza ion
while cons aining he na u al capaci y o egene a ion.
Consequen ly, he scien i ic assessmen and op imiza ion
o wa e use pa e ns ha e become p essing issues wi hin
sus ainable de elopmen policy and esou ce
managemen amewo ks.
In he case o Mongolia, he balance be ween he
s uc u e and u iliza ion o wa e esou ces a ies ac oss
egions due o di e ences in geog aphical loca ion,
clima ic condi ions, and economic sec o composi ion
[2]. In 2023, a o al o 2,140.1 million cubic me e s o
wa e we e ex ac ed om na u al sou ces na ionwide—
o which 1,689.1 million cubic me e s (78.9%) o igina ed
om su ace wa e , and 450.9 million cubic me e s
(21.1%) om g oundwa e ese es [3]. To al wa e
consump ion eached 440.8 million cubic me e s,
ep esen ing a 0.3% dec ease compa ed o he p e ious
yea . Among economic sec o s, ag icul u e accoun ed o
mo e han 75% o o al wa e consump ion (332.6 million
m³), ollowed by mining (67.7 million m³), elec ici y,
gas, and hea p oduc ion (22.6 million m³),
manu ac u ing (3.2 million m³), and cons uc ion (3.8
million m³) [3]. This s uc u e indica es a high deg ee o
sec o al concen a ion in wa e use, implying po en ial
ine iciencies and isks o unsus ainable esou ce
exploi a ion [4].
Changes in wa e consump ion s uc u e ep esen no
only an en i onmen al challenge bu also a s a egic issue
wi h implica ions o economic g ow h, ood secu i y,
ene gy supply, and u ban sus ainabili y. The six h goal o
he Uni ed Na ions Sus ainable De elopmen Goals
(SDG 6) aims o “ensu e a ailabili y and sus ainable
managemen o wa e and sani a ion o all,” emphasizing
he impo ance o measu ing and op imizing wa e use,
supply, and e iciency a he na ional le el as key
indica o s o p og ess [5].
Mongolia aces a p essing need o implemen an
in eg a ed wa e managemen sys em, d i en by clima e
change, he unequal geog aphical dis ibu ion o wa e
esou ces, and ex ac ion- ela ed cons ain s [6].
Nume ous in e na ional s udies (e.g., OECD, FAO,
UNEP, Wo ld Bank) ha e modeled wa e -use ends,
op imiza ion o wa e esou ces, and in e sec o al
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compe i ion h ough quan i a i e me hods [7]. Fo
ins ance, Falcon e al. (2021) es ima ed long- e m wa e
consump ion g ow h using he Compound Annual
G ow h Ra e (CAGR) and linea ex apola ion me hods,
while Wang and Hu (2022) employed op imiza ion
models (LP, QP) o wa e alloca ion. Howe e , mos o
hese s udies ocus on de eloped coun ies’ wa e supply
sys ems and a ely accoun o he speci ic cha ac e is ics
o de eloping egions wi h a id clima es, such as
Mongolia.
Resea ch in Mongolia has la gely concen a ed on
agg ega e wa e consump ion, esou ce composi ion, and
s a is ical indica o s. Ye , sys ema ic analyses o
in e sec o al linkages, op imiza ion calcula ions, and he
dynamics be ween wa e use and ex ac ion emain
limi ed. A g owing dispa i y be ween wa e consump ion
and ex ac ion has been obse ed, e lec ing declining
wa e -use e iciency, in ensi ying in e sec o al
compe i ion, and he po en ial o e bu dening o
ecosys ems.
Analyzing empo al ends in wa e use and
de eloping u u e p ojec ions a e hus o s a egic
impo ance o wa e esou ce managemen .
Ne e heless, ew s udies ha e quan i a i ely assessed
he in e dependence be ween wa e consump ion and
ex ac ion ac oss economic sec o s. The p esen s udy
aims o de e mine he sec o al ends, g ow h a es, and
in e ela ionships be ween wa e use and ex ac ion based
on s a is ical da a om 2019–2023, he eby e alua ing
he op imal alloca ion o wa e esou ces.
Me hodologically, he s udy applies he Compound
Annual G ow h Ra e (CAGR), linea end ex apola ion,
and op imiza ion echniques o o ecas u u e wa e
consump ion and assess he consump ion–ex ac ion
a io. This esea ch ep esen s one o he i s a emp s in
Mongolia o in eg a e quan i a i e and op imiza ion
app oaches o analyzing wa e -use ends. Fu he mo e,
i in oduces a ma hema ical p og amming model o
de ine in e sec o al ela ionships be ween wa e
consump ion and ex ac ion. The inno a i e con ibu ion
o his s udy lies in i s applica ion o bo h he CAGR and
he Lag angian mul iplie me hod o es ima e op imal
ans o ma ions o wa e esou ces, he eby p o iding an
e idence-based app oach o suppo s a egic wa e
managemen in Mongolia.
II. MATERIALS AND METHOD
The esea ch me hodology is designed o analyze
empo al changes in wa e consump ion and ex ac ion
based on quan i a i e da a, wi h he objec i e o
iden i ying he s uc u al in e ela ionships o wa e use
ac oss economic sec o s. Fo his pu pose, wa e
consump ion epo s and en i onmen al s a is ics
published by he Na ional S a is ics O ice o he pe iod
2019–2023 we e u ilized. Key a iables—including
wa e consump ion (C), wa e ex ac ion (W), he
compound annual g ow h a e (CAGR), and linea end
pa ame e s (α, β)—we e de i ed and p ocessed. The
s udy employs a quan i a i e, longi udinal–analy ical
design, ocusing on e alua ing empo al ends and
sec o al a ia ions in wa e use h ough bo h s a is ical
and op imiza ion-based app oache.
To analyze long- e m ends in wa e usage, he
Compound Annual G ow h Ra e (CAGR) was calcula ed
o each sec o . CAGR p o ides a measu e o he mean
annual g ow h a e o e a speci ied pe iod, assuming
g ow h is compounded annually. The o mula used is:
𝐶𝐴𝐺𝑅 = (𝑉𝑒𝑛𝑑
𝑉𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡)1
𝑛− 1 (1)
Whe e 𝑉𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡 and 𝑉𝑒𝑛𝑑 a e he alues a he beginning
and end o he obse a ion pe iod, and 𝑛 is he numbe o
yea s. This calcula ion allows o compa ison o g ow h
a es ac oss sec o s and suppo s subsequen analyses
such as end e alua ion and op imiza ion o wa e
alloca ion.
Based on he da ase o wa e consump ion by sec o
(in million m³) om 2019 o 2023, a linea ex apola ion
me hod was employed o o ecas u u e wa e use. The
linea end is exp essed by he ollowing equa ion.
Whe e 𝑉𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑡 and 𝑉𝑒𝑛𝑑 a e he alues a he beginning
and end o he obse a ion pe iod, and 𝑛 is he numbe o
yea s. This calcula ion allows o compa ison o g ow h
a es ac oss sec o s and suppo s subsequen analyses
such as end e alua ion and op imiza ion o wa e
alloca ion.
Based on he da ase o wa e consump ion by sec o
(in million m³) om 2019 o 2023, a linea ex apola ion
me hod was employed o o ecas u u e wa e use. The
linea end is exp essed by he ollowing equa ion.
𝑌 = 𝑎 + 𝑏𝑥 (2)
He e, 𝑌 ep esen s wa e consump ion (million m³),
and 𝑥 deno es he s udy yea (2019 = 0, 2020 = 1, …,
2023 = 4). To ensu e he e icien use o na u al esou ces,
he ollowing objec i e unc ion is de ined.
𝑍𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 𝑓(𝑥1, 𝑥2, ……𝑥𝑛) (3)
He e, 𝑥𝑖 ep esen s he na u al esou ce usage o each
sec o (e.g., ag icul u e, indus y, e c.), and 𝑍 deno es he
o al economic bene i o he e iciency indica o o wa e
u iliza ion. The esou ce cons ain s a e de ined as
ollows.
𝑔(𝑥1,𝑥2, ……𝑥𝑛) = 𝑥1+ 𝑥2+ ⋯…+𝑥𝑛− 𝑊 = 0 (4)
He e, 𝑊 ep esen s he o al a ailable amoun o
na u al esou ces. To sol e he op imiza ion p oblem
unde cons ained condi ions, he Lag ange Mul iplie
Me hod was employed.
This me hod cons uc s a linea combina ion o he
objec i e unc ion and he cons ain unc ions as ollows:
𝐿(𝑥1,𝑥2, ……𝑥𝑛,𝜆) = 𝑓(𝑥1,𝑥2, ……𝑥𝑛) −
𝜆(𝑔(𝑥1,𝑥2, ……𝑥𝑛)) (5)
𝜆 - I is he Lag ange mul iplie , which ep esen s he
“shadow p ice” o he cons ain unc ion, ha is, he
ma ginal alue o he wa e esou ce.
𝜕𝐿
𝜕𝑥𝑖= 0 (𝑖 = 1,2,… … ,𝑛) (6)
𝜕𝐿
𝜕𝜆 = 0 (7)
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By sol ing hese equa ions simul aneously, he
op imal alloca ion o wa e consump ion, 𝑥1
∗,𝑥2
∗,……𝑥𝑛
∗,
and he shadow p ice o he na u al esou ce, 𝜆∗, a e
de e mined.
III. RESULT
Using he CAGR, linea end, and cons ained
op imiza ion models speci ied in he esea ch
me hodology, he s udy quan i a i ely analyzed sec o al
ends in wa e consump ion and ex ac ion. The esul s
clea ly illus a e he di ec ion and g ow h a es o wa e
use ac oss economic sec o s be ween 2019 and 2023, as
well as he s eng h o he consump ion–ex ac ion
ela ionship. This sec ion o he esul s p esen s he
CAGR alues o each sec o , o ecas s o wa e
consump ion o 2025, and a s a is ical analysis o he
linea ela ionship be ween wa e ex ac ion and
consump ion.
Based on wa e ex ac ion da a om 2019 o 2023, he
compound annual g ow h a e (CAGR) o wa e
consump ion inc eased by 32.9% in he cons uc ion
sec o , whe eas i dec eased by 8.0% in he elec ici y,
gas, s eam, and ai condi ioning supply sec o .
Figu e 1. CAGR o Wa e Consump ion (%)
Wa e usage in he Ag icul u e, Fo es y, Fishing, and
Hun ing sec o has emained s able, exhibi ing minimal
luc ua ions. In con as , he Mining and Qua ying sec o
has expe ienced a apid inc ease in wa e consump ion,
highligh ing he need o enhanced wa e managemen in
his sec o . The dec ease in wa e usage wi hin he
Elec ici y, Gas, S eam, and Ai Condi ioning Supply
sec o may be a ibu ed o echnological imp o emen s
and inc eased e iciency.
Household wa e consump ion has shown a s eady
upwa d end, e lec ing g owing demand. Based on
wa e usage da a om 2019 o 2023, he Compound
Annual G ow h Ra e (CAGR) indica es a 152.5%
inc ease in he Sewe age Sys em sec o , while household
consump ion declined by 36.7%.
The able p esen s he Compound Annual G ow h
Ra e (CAGR) o wa e usage ac oss a ious sec o s,
e lec ing he a e age annual inc ease o dec ease in
wa e consump ion be ween 2019 and 2023.
Nega i e CAGR alues a e obse ed in sec o s such
as Ag icul u e, Fo es y, Fishing and Hun ing (-1.1%),
Manu ac u ing (-4.7%), O he Ac i i ies (-13.7%), and
Households (-36.7%), indica ing a decline in wa e usage.
This dec ease may be a ibu ed o echnological
imp o emen s, wa e -sa ing measu es, o educed
ac i i y wi hin hese sec o s.
Posi i e CAGR alues appea in sec o s such as
Mining and Qua ying (5.1%), Elec ici y, Gas, S eam
and Ai Condi ioning Supply (8.1%), Cons uc ion
(37.6%), and Sewe age Sys em (152.5%), e lec ing a
signi ican inc ease in wa e usage. No ably, he
Sewe age Sys em's 152.5% CAGR sugges s apid
expansion o in as uc u e, inc eased capaci y o wa e
collec ion and dis ibu ion, and g owing demand o
ela ed se ices.
O e all, he CAGR alues p o ide aluable insigh s
in o he ends o sec o al wa e consump ion, which can
suppo s a egic planning and sus ainable wa e
managemen policies.
The p ojec ed wa e consump ion by sec o in 2025,
es ima ed using linea end ex apola ion based on he
2019–2023 da a, is p esen ed in Table 1.
TABLE 1. PROJECTED WATER CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR IN 2025
(MILLION M³)
Sec o
Ex ac ed wa e
consump ion in
2025 (million m³)
Wa e
consump ion in
2025 (million m³)
Ag icul u e,
o es y, ishe ies,
hun ing
330.9
324.6
Mining and
qua ying
195.2
61.5
Manu ac u ing
13.9
2.9
Cons uc ion
9.3
4.4
Elec ici y, gas,
s eam, ai
condi ioning supply
1,430.7
20.3
Sewe age sys ems
85.0
3.8
O he ac i i ies
28.5
3.9
Households
100.8
7.2
The p ojec ed wa e consump ion and ex ac ion o
2025 we e es ima ed using a linea end ex apola ion
based on his o ical da a om 2019 o 2023. Each sec o
was analyzed sepa a ely o accoun o di e ences in
consump ion pa e ns and ex ac ion ac i i ies.
The accu acy o he 2025 wa e consump ion o ecas
was e alua ed using se e al e o me ics, including
MAE (Mean Absolu e E o ), RMSE (Roo Mean
Squa ed E o ), and SMAPE (Symme ic Mean Absolu e
Pe cen age E o ). The esul s indica e ha o mos
sec o s, pa icula ly ag icul u e, elec ici y, gas, s eam,
and ai condi ioning supply, as well as cons uc ion, he
Figu e 2. Calcula ed CAGR o Wa e Ex ac ion (%)
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MAE is low (~1–2 million m³), demons a ing ha he
o ecas ed alues a e close o he ac ual da a and exhibi
minimal e o . In con as , sec o s wi h low consump ion
and high a iabili y, such as sewe age sys ems and
household wa e use, show highe e o s, sugges ing ha
o ecas s o hese sec o s should be in e p e ed wi h
cau ion.
Acco ding o he esul s, ag icul u al, o es y,
ishe ies, and hun ing ac i i ies a e expec ed o main ain
he highes le el o wa e ex ac ion and consump ion,
wi h p ojec ed alues o app oxima ely 331 million m³
and 325 million m³, espec i ely. In con as , sec o s such
as elec ici y, gas, s eam, and ai condi ioning supply
show a la ge dispa i y be ween ex ac ion and
consump ion, indica ing ha only a small po ion o he
ex ac ed wa e is used di ec ly. Mining, manu ac u ing,
cons uc ion, sewe age sys ems, o he ac i i ies, and
households show mode a e o low p ojec ed consump ion
ela i e o hei ex ac ion le els. O e all, he o al
p ojec ed ex ac ion and consump ion sugges ha while
some sec o s may expe ience sligh inc eases o
dec eases, he gene al end indica es s able o
mode a ely declining wa e use ac oss mos sec o s by
2025.
In he ag icul u e, o es y, ishe ies, hun ing a e y
s ong posi i e linea ela ionship is obse ed be ween
wa e consump ion and wa e ex ac ion (R² ≈ 0.99).
This sugges s ha , on a e age, a one-uni inc ease in
wa e consump ion esul s in a 1.04-uni inc ease in wa e
ex ac ion. In o he wo ds, wa e consump ion is almos
di ec ly p opo ional o ex ac ion, indica ing ha he
le el o consump ion se es as a c i ical de e minan in
he sec o ’s wa e esou ce managemen .
In ano he case, as wa e consump ion inc eases,
wa e ex ac ion ends o decline ela i ely. The
coe icien o de e mina ion (R² = 0.57) indica es ha
57% o he a iance in ex ac ion is explained by he
model. This pa e n may sugges ha he sub-sec o has
adop ed wa e -sa ing echnologies o ha ex ac ion has
dec eased while consump ion emains ela i ely s able.
He e, a mode a e posi i e co ela ion be ween wa e uses
and ex ac ion is obse ed, implying ha al hough highe
consump ion leads o some inc ease in ex ac ion, he
model does no ully explain all a ia ions (R² ≈ 0.51).
In he cons uc ion sec o , wa e ex ac ion esponds
s ongly o inc eased consump ion (R² ≈ 0.96),
indica ing an almos pe ec associa ion be ween wa e
use and wi hd awal ac i i ies. F om a wa e esou ce
managemen pe spec i e, he cons uc ion sec o can be
ega ded as he mos ex ac ion-sensi i e use .
Figu e 3. Resul s o he analysis o he ela ionship be ween wa e
consump ion and ex ac ion
In ano he sec o , wa e consump ion and ex ac ion
appea o be nea ly un ela ed (R² ≈ 0.08). When
consump ion ises, ex ac ion emains almos unchanged
o ollows a andom pa e n. This may be a ibu ed o
imp o ed sys em e iciency, wa e euse, o s able
consump ion le els.
A mode a e ela ionship (R² = 0.63) indica es ha
while an inc ease in wa e consump ion di ec ly
in luences ex ac ion, o he ac o s such as sys em losses,
ecycling, and e iciency also play a ole.
A weak bu posi i e ela ionship is also obse ed (R²
≈ 0.29), showing ha wa e ex ac ion sligh ly inc eases
as consump ion ises, hough he model explains only
29% o he o al a ia ion. This sugges s ha changes in
wa e consump ion ha e a limi ed e ec on ex ac ion in
o he se ice sec o s.
Fo household wa e use, a weak nega i e co ela ion
is obse ed, meaning ha as consump ion inc eases,
ex ac ion ends o decline. This may be explained by
imp o ed wa e supply e iciency o by mee ing
inc eased demand h ough p e iously ex ac ed ese es.
Based on he p ojec ed sec o al da a o wa e
ex ac ion and consump ion in 2025, he op imal
alloca ion o wa e esou ces was de e mined using he
Lag ange mul iplie op imiza ion me hod. The s udy se
a o al wa e esou ce cons ain o 2,194.3 million m³ and
modeled wa e use ac oss eigh sec o s using a
loga i hmic unc ion weigh ed by he economic
signi icance coe icien s (a_i) o each sec o .
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71
The calcula ions yielded a shadow p ice (λ) o 0.0039,
indica ing ha concen a ing wa e esou ces in sec o s
wi h high economic e u ns—such as mining, elec ici y
gene a ion, and manu ac u ing—maximizes he o e all
sys em e iciency. Con e sely, he analysis showed ha
wa e consump ion in ag icul u e would op imally
dec ease by app oxima ely 29%, highligh ing he need o
enhance wa e -use e iciency in his sec o .
TABLE 2. THE RESULTS OF THE OPTIMIZATION CALCULATIONS ARE
SUMMARIZED AS FOLLOWS (WATER VOLUME IN MILLION M³)
Sec o
Ac ual
Consump ion
in 2025
Op imal
Consump ion
Rela i e
Change
Ag icul u e,
Fo es y,
Fishe ies, and
Hun ing
324.6
229.5
−29.3%
Mining
61.5
408.7
+564.6%
Manu ac u ing
2.9
255.1
+8695.9%
Elec ici y, Gas,
Hea , and
Ven ila ion
20.3
562.4
+2670.3%
O he Sec o s
(I iga ion,
Cons uc ion,
Households,
and O he s)
19.3
738.6
+3725.8%
(дундаж)
The calcula ions indica e ha he cu en s uc u e o
wa e consump ion is subop imal ela i e o he
economic e u ns o he sec o s. Inc easing wa e
alloca ion o sec o s wi h highe economic signi icance
is es ima ed o aise he o al sys em bene i by
app oxima ely 10–15%.
These indings p o ide a scien i ic basis o planning
mac o-le el wa e esou ce alloca ion, pa icula ly o
o mula ing policies ha accoun o wa e alua ion and
he egula ion o in e sec o al compe i i e use. Howe e ,
since his op imiza ion is based solely on economic
e iciency, i is necessa y o also conside social and
en i onmen al ac o s in p ac ical applica ions.
IV. DISCUSSION
The esul s o his s udy ep esen he i s a emp o
conduc a de ailed quan i a i e analysis o wa e
consump ion and ex ac ion s uc u es in Mongolia by
sec o and o e alua e he op imal alloca ion o wa e
esou ces. The indings indica e ha he ag icul u al
sec o accoun s o app oxima ely 75% o o al wa e use,
highligh ing a high concen a ion o esou ces and he
need o pa icula a en ion o in e sec o al compe i ion.
Con e sely, sec o s such as mining, elec ici y
gene a ion, and manu ac u ing consume ela i ely less
wa e bu gene a e high economic e u ns; he Lag ange
mul iplie calcula ions show ha he sys em’s o e all
e iciency is educed due o subop imal alloca ion in hese
sec o s.
Analysis o sec o -speci ic CAGR alues e eals ha
wa e use in he cons uc ion and i iga ion sec o s is
inc easing apidly, whe eas consump ion in elec ici y,
manu ac u ing, and household sec o s is declining. This
end e lec s he implemen a ion o wa e -sa ing
echnologies and imp o emen s in sys em e iciency, ye
i also indica es ha he in e sec o al ela ionships and he
dependence o consump ion on ex ac ion a y ac oss
sec o s. Fo ins ance, ag icul u e, o es y, ishe ies,
hun ing exhibi s a e y s ong posi i e co ela ion
be ween wa e use and ex ac ion (R² ≈ 0.99),
sugges ing ha consump ion is a key de e minan o
esou ce managemen , whe eas household wa e use
shows a weak nega i e co ela ion, indica ing imp o ed
e iciency wi hin he sys em.
Based on he 2025 p ojec ions, he op imiza ion
esul s con i m ha he cu en s uc u e o wa e
consump ion is subop imal ela i e o economic
signi icance. Op imal wa e use in he ag icul u al sec o
is p ojec ed o dec ease by app oxima ely 29%,
enhancing e iciency, while wa e use in mining,
elec ici y gene a ion, and manu ac u ing is expec ed o
inc ease subs an ially. These indings unde sco e he
s a egic need o manage esou ce concen a ion ac oss
sec o s.
V. CONCLUSION
This s udy p o ides a comp ehensi e quan i a i e
assessmen o wa e consump ion and ex ac ion in
Mongolia, e ealing signi ican sec o al dispa i ies and
ine iciencies. App oxima ely 75% o o al wa e use is
concen a ed in ag icul u e, o es y, ishe ies, and
hun ing, highligh ing high dependency and po en ial isks
o esou ce misalloca ion. Sec o al analysis demons a es
a iable in e dependence be ween consump ion and
ex ac ion: ag icul u e, o es y, ishe ies, hun ing
exhibi s an almos pe ec posi i e co ela ion (R² ≈
0.99), whe eas household wa e use shows a weak
nega i e co ela ion (R² ≈ 0.29), unde sco ing he
necessi y o ailo ed managemen s a egies. Compound
Annual G ow h Ra e (CAGR) ends indica e inc easing
wa e demand in cons uc ion and sewe age sys ems,
con as ed by declining consump ion in elec ici y,
manu ac u ing, and household sec o s, e lec ing
echnological imp o emen s and wa e -sa ing measu es.
Op imiza ion using he Lag ange mul iplie me hod
sugges s ealloca ing wa e esou ces owa d
economically high- e u n sec o s— educing ag icul u al
use by ~29% while subs an ially inc easing alloca ion o
mining, elec ici y gene a ion, and manu ac u ing—
could imp o e o e all sys em e iciency by 10–15%.
These indings p o ide a s a egic amewo k o
in eg a ed wa e esou ce managemen , balancing
sec o al compe i ion, economic e iciency, and
sus ainabili y, and suppo ing he achie emen o SDG 6
objec i es in Mongolia’s a id and semi-a id con ex s.
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