Jou nal P e-p oo
Mic obial isk and heal h bu den associa ed wi h he domes ic
p epa a ion o len ils in F ance and Hunga y
Rodney J. Feliciano , Jeanne-Ma ie Memb ´
e , Louis Delaunay
PII: S2352-3522(25)00017-9
DOI: h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.m an.2025.100357
Re e ence: MRAN 100357
To appea in: Mic obial Risk Analysis
Recei ed da e: 15 July 2025
Re ised da e: 27 Oc obe 2025
Accep ed da e: 27 Oc obe 2025
Please ci e his a icle as: Rodney J. Feliciano , Jeanne-Ma ie Memb ´
e , Louis Delaunay , Mic obial
isk and heal h bu den associa ed wi h he domes ic p epa a ion o len ils in F ance and Hunga y,
Mic obial Risk Analysis (2025), doi: h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.m an.2025.100357
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Highligh s:
Assessmen o isk wi h home-cooked len il consump ion in F ance and Hunga y
B. ce eus and L. monocy ogenes as mic obial haza ds in home-p epa ed len ils
A p obabilis ic model wi h unce ain y and a iabili y was de eloped using 2D Mon e Ca lo
me hods
Low isk om p ope len il consump ion p ac ices, bu may inc ease wi h new consump ion
pa e ns
Need o QMRA be o e pushing new die s, ing edien s o plan -based al e na i es
Mic obial isk and heal h bu den associa ed wi h he domes ic p epa a ion o len ils in F ance
and Hunga y
Rodney J. Felicianoa, Jeanne-Ma ie Memb éa, Louis Delaunaya
Oni is Ve Ag oBio, INRAE, Secalim, Si e de la Chan e ie, CS 40706, 44307 Nan es Cedex 3, F ance
Abs ac :
Len ils a e p omo ed as an al e na i e p o ein sou ce due o hei ag icul u al and nu i ional
bene i s. Howe e , in o ma ion on he mic obial isks associa ed wi h len il consump ion in domes ic
se ings is limi ed. The coun ies o F ance and Hunga y we e selec ed o ep esen he len il
consump ion in wo di e en supply chains. Bacillus ce eus was iden i ied as a pa hogen o conce n in
bo h ho and cold dishes, whe eas Lis e ia monocy ogenes was only iden i ied in cold dishes. A
p obabilis ic model accoun ing o unce ain y and a iabili y was cons uc ed, es ima ing he mic obial
concen a ion a subsequen s ages o domes ic handling: cooking, cooling, and 24–96 h o chilled
s o age. The numbe o oodbo ne illness cases and daily adjus ed li e yea s (DALY) we e es ima ed a
he poin o consump ion.
The esul s we e analysed a each s age; o example, a 96 h, B. ce eus showed mean alues
o 2.52 [1.75; 4.12] log CFU/g in F ance and 2.03 [1.24; 3.56] log CFU/g in Hunga y. Fo Lis e ia
monocy ogenes, he mean es ima es we e lowe a 0.48 [−0.20; 1.16] log CFU/g in F ance and 0.69
[0.07; 1.36] log CFU/g in Hunga y. The o e all numbe o oodbo ne illness cases om bo h pa hogens
was compu ed based on he consump ion equency. They we e es ima ed o be 0 [0–44] cases pe
100,000 in F ance and 0 [0–5.8] in Hunga y.
The unce ain y in e als a e ela i ely la ge, e lec ing unce ain y in he es ima es, meaning
ha he isk is no an absolu e ze o. Mo eo e , i is likely ha die a y shi s owa ds less mea
consump ion, as p omo ed by a ious ins i u ions, will occu . Ex ended ba ch cooking p ac ices can
pose an addi ional isk o oodbo ne illnesses in he u u e.
Keywo ds: Bacillus ce eus, Lis e ia monocy ogenes, DALY, leguminous, domes ic p ac ices, ood sa e y, Mon e
Ca lo
1. In oduc ion
Len ils a e seen as a key c op o he u u e due o hei ag icul u al and nu i ional bene i s. In e ms o
ag icul u e, hey a e known o hei ni ogen ixa ion ac i i y and abili y o ole a e d y condi ions. Thei
nu i ional ole has been epo ed o con ibu e o consume s' p o ein, i amins, and mine al equi emen s
(Con i e al., 2021; Iqbal e al., 2006; Romano e al., 2021). The e o e, len ils a e posi ioned as a
sus ainable p o ein al e na i e in se e al p oposed ag oecological models (e.g., A e es2050, T ansi ion
2050, and TYFA 2050). These models a e cha ac e ised by an inc eased consump ion o non-animal
p o ein (i.e., legumes) and a educ ion in ed mea (i.e., bo ine) and, o a lesse ex en , monogas ic (i.e.,
chicken and po k) li es ock (Billen e al., 2021; Du u and The ond, 2023). This shi om animal
p oduc ion will enable a ocus on a ming c ops ha ha e lowe g eenhouse gas emissions and p ese e
wildli e biodi e si y. As pa o egional policies, se e al Eu opean p ojec s (e.g., Pulse Inc ease, legume
gene a ion, and sma p o ein p ojec ) and campaigns ha e been launched o encou age a me s o adop
his c op and people o inc ease len il consump ion in hei die . These ends ha e been obse ed in he
Eu opean egion, including in F ance and Hunga y (e.g., Eu opean Union (EU) g een deal and Cap
p o eins) (Eu opean Commission, 2021, 2020). Howe e , his wide- ange push owa ds die a y shi s is
no wi hou isks. Se e al s udies ha e called o an analysis o he associa ed chemical, nu i ional, and
biological isks wi h newe ends and die a y pa e ns (Eygue e al., 2020; Guillie e al., 2016; Poissan
e al., 2023).
Len ils a e a majo c op in Canada, India, and Aus alia, which a e he op p oduce s. In he EU, hey
a e impo ed om Canada, Tu key, and he USA, while local p oduc ion is led by I aly and F ance. The
consump ion pa e n o len ils a ies ac oss he wo ld, wi h he highes in Asian coun ies (e.g., India),
whe e i is he key p o ein sou ce. Howe e , in he EU, len il consump ion emains low wi h an inc easing
end, pa icula ly in F ance and Hunga y (Mombe e al., 2024; Nagy e al., 2021). Len il p oduc ion
inc eased om 75,0000 (2017) onnes o 116,000 (2021), wi h F ance and Spain as he leading
p oduce s. The impo olume o len ils anged om 246,000 o 230,000 onnes be ween 2017 and 2021
(Cen e o he P omo ion o Impo s, 2023). This can also be seen wi h len il-dedica ed a mlands in
Eu ope, which peaked a ound 2018 bu declined a e 2020 (Te es Uni ia, 2022).
In hese wo coun ies, len ils a e mos ly consumed in domes ic se ings and p epa ed om d ied
len ils, ollowed by canned ones, making hese hei op ma ke o ms. The domes ic p epa a ion o d ied
len ils is done by ba ch cooking, and he le o e s a e s o ed in he e ige a o un il inished. In F ance,
len ils a e mos ly p epa ed as a ho dish o cold salad dish, which is hen mixed wi h o he ypes o ood.
In Hunga y, hey a e mos ly p epa ed as ho soup o cold sandwich sp eads (Nagy e al., 2021; Yab é
and Memb é, 2022).
Die a y shi s can p o ide bene i s o mee ing nu i ional equi emen s bu can also cause exposu e o
ood sa e y haza ds, which can ha e implica ions on he heal h bu den o consume s (Pi es e al., 2020).
An example is plan -based milk al e na i es, which can mee p o ein and ene gy equi emen s (C aig e
al., 2023) bu can inc ease exposu e o hea y me als and myco oxins (San illana Fa akos e al., 2021).
Die a y s udies explo ing cu en and al e na i e legume-based die s pain he same pic u e (Fe ei a e
al., 2023; Mihalache e al., 2024). In a nu i ion in e en ion s udy, Fe ei a e al. (2023) demons a ed ha
legumes did no agg a a e nu i ional de iciency, and he e was a sligh decline in i amin B12. Howe e ,
Mihalache e al. (2024) ound ha a legume-based die educed he nega i e impac s o ed and
p ocessed mea s bu also posed challenges in mee ing mic onu ien (e.g., Fe and Se) needs and
inc eased exposu e o hea y me als (e.g., a senic, lead, and cadmium) and myco oxins (AFB1).
The e o e, se e al s udies ha e called o a mo e sys ema ic assessmen o no el die a y pa e ns (Eygue
e al., 2020; San illana Fa akos e al., 2021).
Assessing he impac s o ood sys ems is a c ucial p e equisi e o p omo ing ood consump ion
pa e ns and die s. To add complexi y is he ecogni ion ha o he impac s o ood sys ems ex end
beyond consume heal h. The e o e, he e is a po en ial o con adic ions be ween di e en ood policies
ha shi die s ha mus be econciled (e.g., sus ainabili y and ood sa e y) (Guillie e al., 2016). This can
occu in he con ex o clima e mi iga ion, whe e ood sa e y measu es can be added o ood p oduc ion
ac i i y. Howe e , his may con ibu e o en i onmen al impac ia g eenhouse gas emissions. As such,
win–win solu ions a e can be achie ed h ough assessmen s (i.e., li ecycle assessmen s and quan i a i e
mic obial isk assessmen s) (Feliciano e al., 2022). This indica es he need o di e en analy ical ools
ha allow comp omise wi hou sac i icing human heal h (Guillie e al., 2016). The e o e, a holis ic isk
assessmen amewo k has been p oposed o inco po a e ools ha conside se e al dimensions when
assessing ood sys ems (e.g., economic, en i onmen al, heal h, and nu i ion) (O szágh e al., 2024).
Food handling and cooking p ac ices can be ulne able o mic obial con amina ion (By d-B edbenne
e al., 2013; Fische e al., 2007). Pa hogens in aw mea (e.g., Esche ichia coli, Campylobac e jejuni)
can be c oss-con amina ed in he ki chen a ea h ough con amina ed hands, chopping boa ds, and kni es
du ing ood p epa a ion (Kennedy e al., 2011). Se e al oodbo ne ou b eaks ha e been linked o homes
in di e en coun ies due o hese con amina ion e en s (Redmond and G i i h, 2003). This highligh s he
ole o home and exis ing p ac ices, cooking condi ions, and e ige a ion in ood sa e y. The e o e,
modelling and cap u ing he condi ions a home mus be included in he isk assessmen o he
consump ion. This can aid in unde s anding mic obial isk and he possible con ol poin s.
Mic obial isk assessmen is a ool ha can be used o isk managemen by iden i ying he ulne able
segmen s o he supply chain (FAO and WHO, 2021). This can be pe o med by de e mining which
p ac ices o segmen s enable pa hogen g ow h. Ul ima ely, ood sa e y manage s can aid in he design o
p oduc s o limi mic obial g ow h, and egula o s o policymake s can de e mine whe he die a y ends o
shi s o new ood p oduc s can pose oodbo ne mic obiological isks. Gi en he inc easing end o len il
consump ion and exis ing domes ic p ac ices, an assessmen o isk and i s possible bu den on he
popula ion is s ill missing. The e o e, he cu en s udy aimed o es ima e he heal h bu den associa ed
wi h he consump ion and domes ic p epa a ion o len ils in F ance and Hunga y. These coun ies we e
chosen o s udy len il consump ion due o hei simila cooking p ac ices (ho and cold dishes) and
ep esen a ion o wo di e en supply chains. F ance e lec s a supply chain ha bo h p oduces and
impo s, whe eas Hunga y is a mos ly impo ing coun y. This s udy applied a p obabilis ic modelling
app oach ha inco po a ed consume p ac ices and da a a ailable in he li e a u e. In addi ion, he esul s
we e exp essed in e ms o he o al bu den o diseases om he p ojec ed annual cases. This esea ch
aims o demons a e he added alue o isk assessmen s in in o ming he associa ed isks ha eme ge
om inc eased len il consump ion.
2. Ma e ials and Me hods:
2.1. Iden i ica ion o mic obial haza ds in len ils and domes ic p epa a ion
The cu en s udy assessed he mic obial isks associa ed wi h home-cooked len il dishes in F ance
and Hunga y. In hese coun ies, len ils a e p epa ed in domes ic se ings om d ied and canned len ils,
making hese he op ma ke o ms (Te es Uni ia, 2024). Len ils a e p epa ed di e en ly be ween he
coun ies, as len il salad in F ance and soup in Hunga y, wi h di e ences in cooking du a ion.
Ne e heless, consume s ollow a simila ba ch-cooking app oach, and le o e s a e s o ed o
consump ion. Le o e s a e usually ehea ed and ea en ho , bu some a e ea en cold, as in salads.
Haza d iden i ica ion was pe o med ollowing he me hodology desc ibed in he li e a u e (Codex
Alimen a ius Commission, 1999). I was assumed ha ood sa e y managemen sys ems and p e equisi e
p og ams we e implemen ed du ing aw len il p oduc ion. The lis o possible mic oo ganisms o conce n
was made by d awing on hose associa ed wi h len il p oduc s as epo ed by ood apid ale sys ems
(e.g., EURASSFF, USFDA, Rappelconso. , and Nebih) and ood mic obiology li e a u e (Anses, 2022;
ICMSF, 2005). These mic oo ganisms we e hen con ex ualised based on hei possible en y poin s
along he len il supply chain (e.g., Lis e ia monocy ogenes econ amina ion du ing cold s o age)
(Supplemen a y Table 1). Subsequen ly, a se ies o il e ing s eps was pe o med by selec ing which
mic oo ganisms can su i e a he poin o consump ion. Fi s , mos o he ege a i e pa hogens iden i ied
a he ini ial pa o he supply chain we e elimina ed du ing he canning o len ils o assumed o be
educed signi ican ly du ing ba ch-cooking a home and, hus, do no pose mic obiological isks. Simila ly,
oodbo ne i uses ha canno p opaga e along he supply chain we e no conside ed in his s udy. In
con as , a his s age, he spo es o Clos idium bo ulinum, C. pe ingens, and Bacillus ce eus we e
e ained. These spo e o me s may su i e he condi ions expe ienced by d ied len ils and du ing cooking
and may ge mina e du ing he s o age o cooked len ils. Howe e , C. bo ulinum and C. pe ingens we e
emo ed, gi en ha hey a e obliga e anae obes and a e no ele an a domes ic s ages.
Consume s we e gene ally conside ed o espec good hygiene p ac ices, including cooling o a
sho pe iod a ambien empe a u e. Howe e , econ amina ion e en s can in oduce L. monocy ogenes
and S aphylococcus au eus a e ba ch cooking, cooling, and subsequen s o age. S aphylococcus
au eus equi es a p olonged s o age pe iod a ambien empe a u es o enable popula ion g ow h and
oxin p oduc ion. In a p e ious su ey and as e lec ed in his s udy, len ils a e s o ed a oom empe a u e
a e cooling o a limi ed pe iod. The le o e s a e kep in he e ige a o and ehea ed o consumed cold
un il he en i e ba ch is inished. Lis e ia monocy ogenes was selec ed o e o he pa hogens, as i g ows
well a e ige a ion empe a u es. Howe e , econ amina ion e en s a e ba ch cooking, cooling, and
subsequen s o age may enable L. monocy ogenes o pose a isk i he len il dish is ea en cold, as in a
salad o sp ead. This pa hogen poses a h ea by being able o p opaga e du ing cold s o age.
The e o e, wo pa hogenic mic oo ganisms we e e ained o mic obial isk assessmen , namely B.
ce eus and L. monocy ogenes. These wo a e conside ed o pose mic obiological isks gi en he
domes ic p ac ices be o e consump ion. Fu he mo e, Bacillus ce eus was u he speci ied in his s udy
as a mic obial haza d by selec ing wo (g oups III and IV) o he se en g oups (Guineb e iè e e al., 2010).
This is due o hei abili y o g ow a oom empe a u e, pa hogenici y, and p e alence in being implica ed
in oodbo ne disease ou b eaks (Anses, 2021; Glasse e al., 2016).
2.2. Len il consump ion da a and domes ic p ac ices o he F ench and Hunga y popula ions
F ench consump ion da a we e collec ed om he hi d F ench Indi idual and Na ional Food
Consump ion Su ey (INCA3) conduc ed by he F ench Food Sa e y Agency (Dubuisson e al., 2019).
This su ey was ca ied ou in Feb ua y 2014 and Sep embe 2015 wi h 5855 indi idual pa icipan s.
Among hese we e 284 indi iduals who decla ed ha hey consumed canned and d ied len ils (150 young
and 134 adul s). The Hunga ian consump ion da a we e collec ed om he Hunga ian na ional ood
consump ion su ey o he EUMENU p ojec (Na ional Food Chain Sa e y O ice Hunga y e al., 2020).
This su ey was conduc ed om 2018 o 2020 wi h 1585 pa icipan s, o whom 87 consumed len ils.
These consump ion da a we e used o es ima e po ion sizes. A non-pa ame ic boo s ap p ocedu e
was ca ied ou o cap u e he unce ain y. Thei a iabili y was desc ibed h ough gamma and Weibull
dis ibu ions in F ance and Hunga y, espec i ely. The domes ic p ac ices we e de e mined om an
online su ey conduc ed among 556 len il consume s in F ance (Yab é and Memb e, 2022). This su ey
con ained in o ma ion on he equency o len il consump ion (1–5 imes pe week) and consump ion
p ac ices (e.g., le o e equency, cooling, and s o age du a ion). The le o e equency and s o age
du a ion in Hunga y we e es ima ed om Koppel e al. (2016). The domes ic p ac ices and len il
consump ion da a used in he cu en s udy a e summa ised in Table 1.
2.3. Exposu e model amewo ks o Lis e ia monocy ogenes and Bacillus ce eus
2.3.1. Model amewo k o e iew
The mic obial isk assessmen models we e cons uc ed o L. monocy ogenes and B. ce eus o
bo h ho and cold len il dishes in F ance and Hunga y. These models ollowed a modula modelling
app oach (Nau a, 2001). The modules included ini ial con amina ion o aw d y len ils, bac e ial
des uc ion du ing cooking, g ow h du ing cooling o e ige a ion, consump ion, and isk es ima ion
modules. The main di e ence be ween he models is he con amina ion pa hway. Bacillus ce eus
con amina ion was assumed o s a om spo es in aw len ils ha esis inac i a ion du ing cooking and
g ow du ing s o age. Th ough he oxin p oduced du ing s o age, B. ce eus poses a isk o bo h hea ed
and cold-se ed len il le o e s. Howe e , L. monocy ogenes occu s h ough econ amina ion du ing he
cooling and s o age phase, posing a isk o cold le o e s. I was no conside ed o ho -se ed dishes
due o inac i a ion du ing he ehea ing s ep. The inpu s used in he model and speci ic condi ions
applied be ween F ance and Hunga y a e lis ed in Table 1.
2.3.2. Bacillus ce eus exposu e assessmen model
2.3.2.1. Module 1: Ini ial con amina ion and p e alence o B. ce eus in len ils
The ini ial coun s o B. ce eus we e aken om he epo ed spo e concen a ion le els and
p e alence among legume samples (i.e., ed len ils and yellow spli beans) (Blakey and P ies , 1980). In
hei s udy, he de ec ion h eshold was se o 2 log CFU/g, which explains why his alue appea s as
he h eshold in ou s udy, modelled as a Be noulli. The maximum le el o B. ce eus epo ed in hei
pape was 45,000 CFU/g, which we used as ou uppe bound. This in o ma ion was used o cons uc
he concen a ion le els as g ea e han 2 log10 (N0XBc>2) o less han 2 log10 CFU(N0XBc<2). The
unce ain y and a iabili y associa ed wi h hese concen a ion le els we e cap u ed using a Pe
dis ibu ion. These alues we e exp essed pe po ion size (Eq. 1a) and as he numbe o bac e ial cells
(Eq. 1b).
𝑙𝑜𝑔10𝑁𝐵𝑐 < 2=𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑡 (𝑀𝑖𝑛;𝑀𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑙𝑖𝑘𝑒𝑙𝑦;𝑀𝑎𝑥){𝑚𝑖𝑛:0.3+log10po ion size
𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒:1+log10po ion size
𝑚𝑎𝑥:1.95+log10po ion size}
𝑙𝑜𝑔10𝑁𝐵𝑐 > 2=𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑡 (𝑀𝑖𝑛;𝑀𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑙𝑖𝑘𝑒𝑙𝑦;𝑀𝑎𝑥){𝑚𝑖𝑛:2+log10po ion size
𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒:2.3+log10po ion size
𝑚𝑎𝑥:3+log10po ion size }
(1a)
𝑁𝐵𝑐 < 2=10𝑙𝑜𝑔10𝑁0𝑋𝐵𝑐 < 2 and 𝑁𝐵𝑐 > 2=10𝑙𝑜𝑔10𝑁0𝑋𝐵𝑐> 2 (1b)
The ini ial con amina ion and p e alence o con amina ion we e ansla ed in o di e en packs
used o cooking, ep esen ing di e en homes. The modelling s a egy was ini ia ed by assigning he
log con amina ion le els in he o al len il packs pe yea and hen by ep esen ing he p obabili y o one
pack being con amina ed.
The o al p e alence o B. ce eus was cap u ed by e lec ing he unce ain ies su ounding he
con amina ion le els using a be a dis ibu ion (Eq. 2a) wi h he numbe o samples con aining g ea e
han 2 log10 CFU (NBc>2) and less han 2 log10 CFU (NBc<2) (s) and he o al numbe o samples (n) es ed
(Blakey and P ies , 1980). The a iabili y o con amina ion le els was compu ed using he Be noulli
dis ibu ion (Eq. 2b).
𝑃𝑡0
𝐵𝑐= 𝐵𝑒𝑡𝑎 (𝑠+1,𝑛−𝑠+1) (2a)
𝑃𝐵𝑐 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑚=𝐵𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑜𝑢𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖 (𝑃𝑡0
𝐵𝑐) (2b)
The pe cen age o con amina ed packs wi h less han 2 log10 CFU was desc ibed using a be a
dis ibu ion (Eq. 3a) wi h he numbe o samples con aining less han 2 log10 CFU (NBc<2) (s) and
numbe o samples con aining g ea e han 2 log10 CFU (NBc>2) (n) desc ibed (Blakey and P ies , 1980).
The a iabili y o B. ce eus con amina ion in he len il packs was cap u ed using he Be noulli
dis ibu ion (Eq. 3b).
% 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑚 𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑠<2=𝐵𝑒𝑡𝑎 (𝑠+1,𝑛−𝑠+1) (3a)
𝑃𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑘<2=𝐵𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑜𝑢𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖 (% 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑚 𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑠<2)
(3b)
The o al p e alence o B. ce eus in len il packs and i s associa ed le els we e compu ed (Eq. 4)
and exp essed as he quan i y o B. ce eus (Eq. 5).
𝑁0𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝐵𝑐 =𝑁𝐵𝑐<2𝑥𝑃𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑘<2+(1−𝑃𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑘<2)𝑥 𝑁𝐵𝑐>2
(4)
𝑄𝑡0
𝐵𝑐=𝑁0𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝐵𝑐𝑥𝑃𝐵𝑐 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑚 (5)
Bacillus ce eus was es ima ed pe s ain, namely g oups III and IV. This s udy ocused on g oups
III and IV, as hey a e known o be he main oxin p oduce s in he B. ce eus g oup (Guineb e iè e e al.,
2008). Due o he lack o da a on hei p opo ions in len il ma ices, we assumed a a iable dis ibu ion
anging om 20 o 80% be ween hese g oups (Eq. 6). The es ima ions we e e lec ed in a uni o m
dis ibu ion gi en an absence o li e a u e da a on he exac s ain p e alence in len ils (Eq. 7).
𝑃𝐺𝐼𝐼𝐼
𝐵𝑐 =𝑈𝑛𝑖𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑚 (0.20,0.80) and 𝑃𝐺𝐼𝑉
𝐵𝑐 =(1−𝑃𝐺𝐼𝐼𝐼
𝐵𝑐)
(6)
𝑁0𝐵𝑐 𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑜𝑟 𝐼𝑉= 𝑄𝑡0
𝐵𝑐𝑥 𝑃𝐺 𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑜𝑟 𝐼𝑉
𝐵𝑐
(7)
2.3.2.2. Module 2: Mic obial inac i a ion du ing ba ch cooking o len ils
The cu en module was buil by modelling ba ch cooking in domes ic se ings. The inac i a ion
pa ame e s we e ob ained om Sym’P e ius o B. ce eus g oup III a 90°C and g oup IV a 100°C
(Table 1). The cooking empe a u e was se a 95°C due o consume s’ p ac ice o cons an ly s i ing
and opening he lid o he pan. Hea inac i a ion was hen compu ed pe g oup ollowing he hea
inac i a ion model (Eq. 8):
D95 BcIII= D90BcIII X 10(90−95
𝑍𝐵𝑐 𝐼𝐼𝐼) and D95 BcIV= D100BcIV X 10(100−95
𝑍𝐵𝑐 𝐼𝑉) (8)
The p obabili y o su i al was calcula ed based on Nau a (2001) and was pe o med pe
B. ce eus g oup ollowing a simila o mula:
𝑃𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝐼𝐼 =10(−𝑡𝐻𝑇
𝐷95 𝐵𝑐𝐼𝐼𝐼) and 𝑃𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝑉 =10(−𝑡𝐻𝑇
𝐷95 𝐵𝑐𝐼𝑉) (9)
The cooking imes ( HT) di e ed be ween F ance, anging om 25 o 35 min, while in Hunga y i
was 45–70 min. This di e ence indica es he cooked len il dish mos consumed in hese wo coun ies:
len il salad in F ance and len il soup in Hunga y. The a iabili y su ounding he cooking imes was
desc ibed as a uni o m dis ibu ion.
The numbe o su i ing B. ce eus spo es was compu ed by mul iplying he p obabili y o
su i al pe g oup by he ini ial con amina ion (Eq. 10). The a iabili y su ounding he spo e su i o s
was desc ibed using a Poisson dis ibu ion.
𝑄𝐻𝑇
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝐼𝐼~ 𝑃𝑜𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑜𝑛 (𝑃𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝑉 𝑥 𝑁0𝐵𝑐𝐼𝐼𝐼) and 𝑄𝐻𝑇
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝑉~ 𝑃𝑜𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑜𝑛 (𝑃𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝑉 𝑥 𝑁0𝐵𝑐𝐼𝑉) (10)
2.3.2.3. Module 3: Mic obial ge mina ion o spo es du ing he cooling o len ils and e ige a ed s o age
o le o e s
The su i ing spo es can ge mina e and g ow du ing he cooling and s o age o len il le o e s.
This module was buil based on he g ow h kine ics o B. ce eus g oups de i ed om Sym’P e ius
(Table 1) and condi ions a e cooking (e.g., cooling empe a u es and ime). In e ms o he g ow h
kine ics, he unce ain y su ounding lag imes was exp essed as uni o mly dis ibu ed (Daelman e al.,
2013; Lau en e al., 1999). The cooling empe a u e was assumed o be 19°C, and he cooling ime
was aken om he consume su ey (Yab é and Memb é, 2022). The a iabili y in he leng h o cooling
ime p ac iced by he consume was desc ibed h ough an exponen ial dis ibu ion.
The mic obial g ow h a e du ing cooling was compu ed ollowing he gamma concep
(Zwie e ing e al., 1996) (Eq. 12) wi h he Ca dinal model and in lec ion o empe a u e om Rosso e
al. (1993) (Eq. 11) and he op imal g ow h a e om Ellouze e al. (2021). Finally, he B. ce eus
concen a ion was compu ed ollowing he exponen ial g ow h model (Buchanan e al., 1997) (Eq. 13)
and subsequen ly con e ed o he numbe o mic oo ganisms.
𝛾𝑇𝐵𝑐𝐼𝐼𝐼𝑜𝑟 𝛾𝑇𝐵𝑐𝐼𝑉=
{
𝑇𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔< 𝑇𝑚𝑖𝑛,0
𝑇𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔>𝑇𝑚𝑎𝑥, 0
(𝑇𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔−𝑇𝑚𝑖𝑛)2 (𝑇𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔−𝑇𝑚𝑎𝑥)
(𝑇𝑜𝑝𝑡−𝑇𝑚𝑖𝑛)[(𝑇𝑜𝑝𝑡−𝑇𝑚𝑖𝑛)(𝑇𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔−𝑇𝑜𝑝𝑡)−(𝑇𝑜𝑝𝑡−𝑇𝑚𝑎𝑥)(𝑇𝑜𝑝𝑡+𝑇𝑚𝑖𝑛−2𝑇𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔)]
(Eq.11)
µ𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑜𝑟 𝐵𝑐𝐼𝑉 =µ𝑜𝑝𝑡
𝐵𝑐𝐼 𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑜𝑟 𝐵𝑐 𝐼𝑉 𝑥 𝛾𝑇𝐵𝑐 𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑜𝑟 𝐵𝑐 𝐼𝑉
(Eq.12)
𝑄𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑜𝑟 𝐵𝑐 𝐼𝑉= { 𝑄𝐻𝑇
𝐵𝑐 𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑜𝑟 𝐵𝑐 𝐼𝑉 𝑖𝑓 𝑙𝑎𝑔𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔≥𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔
𝑄𝐻𝑇
𝐵𝑐 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝑜𝑟 𝐵𝑐 𝐼𝑉 𝑥exp[µ𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑜𝑟 𝐵𝑐 𝐼𝑉 𝑥 (𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔−𝑙𝑎𝑔𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔)] 𝑖𝑓 𝑙𝑎𝑔𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔<𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔
(Eq.13)
2.3.2.4. Module 4: Mic obial g ow h and s o age condi ions du ing e ige a ion
Ba ch-cooked len ils a e no consumed in one se ing, and le o e s a e kep in he e ige a o
and consumed o e se e al occasions. The di e en ia ing ac o be ween he wo coun ies is he
du a ion o s o age, po ion size, and numbe o po ions pe dish (Table 1). In e ms o e ige a ion
empe a u e, he same alues we e applied o bo h coun ies (Rocca o e al., 2017). The dis inc ion
be ween F ance and Hunga y is he le o e s o age ime and equency (Koppel e al., 2016; Yab é and
Memb é, 2022).
Mic obial g ow h du ing his pe iod was de e mined ollowing a simila modelling app oach as
cooling, namely de e mining he g ow h a e du ing e ige a ion wi h empe a u e in he idge as he
ca dinal pa ame e (Eq. 14) in he gamma model (Eq. 15). This enabled he compu a ion o he B.
ce eus concen a ion o e ime (Eq. 16) and was exp essed as o al B. ce eus pe se ing o le o e s
(Eq. 17).
𝛾𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑑𝑔𝑒
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑜𝑟 𝛾𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑑𝑔𝑒
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝑉
=
{
𝑇𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑑𝑔𝑒< 𝑇𝑚𝑖𝑛
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑜𝑟 𝐵𝑐𝐼𝑉, 0
𝑇𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑑𝑔𝑒 > 𝑇𝑚𝑎𝑥
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑜𝑟 𝐵𝑐𝐼𝑉, 0
(𝑇𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑑𝑔𝑒−𝑇𝑚𝑖𝑛
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑜𝑟 𝐵𝑐𝐼𝑉)2 (𝑇𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑑𝑔𝑒−𝑇𝑚𝑎𝑥
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑜𝑟 𝐵𝑐𝐼𝑉)
(𝑇𝑜𝑝𝑡−𝑇𝑚𝑖𝑛)[(𝑇𝑜𝑝𝑡−𝑇𝑚𝑖𝑛
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑜𝑟 𝐵𝑐𝐼𝑉)(𝑇𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑑𝑔𝑒−𝑇𝑜𝑝𝑡)−(𝑇𝑜𝑝𝑡−𝑇𝑚𝑎𝑥)(𝑇𝑜𝑝𝑡+𝑇𝑚𝑖𝑛
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑜𝑟 𝐵𝑐𝐼𝑉−2𝑇𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑑𝑔𝑒)]
(14)
µ𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑑𝑔𝑒
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑜𝑟 𝐵𝑐𝐼𝑉 =µ𝑜𝑝𝑡
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑜𝑟 𝐵𝑐𝐼𝑉 𝑥 𝛾𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑑𝑔𝑒
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑜𝑟 𝐵𝑐𝐼𝑉 (15)
𝑄𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑑𝑔𝑒
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑜𝑟 𝑄𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑑𝑔𝑒
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝑉 = { 𝑄𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔
𝐵𝑐 𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑜𝑟 𝐵𝑐 𝐼𝑉 𝑖𝑓 𝑙𝑎𝑔𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒≥𝑡𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒
𝑄𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔
𝐵𝑐 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝑜𝑟 𝐵𝑐 𝐼𝑉 𝑥exp[µ𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑑𝑔𝑒
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝐼𝐼 𝑜𝑟 𝐵𝑐𝐼𝑉𝑥 (𝑡𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒−𝑙𝑎𝑔𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒)] 𝑖𝑓 𝑙𝑎𝑔𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔<𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔
(16)
𝑄𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔
𝐵𝑐 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙/𝑋ℎ=𝑄𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑑𝑔𝑒
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝐼𝐼 +𝑄𝑓𝑟𝑖𝑑𝑔𝑒
𝐵𝑐𝐼𝑉
𝑁𝑜.𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠 𝑑𝑖𝑠ℎ
(17)
2.3.2.5. Module 5: Risk es ima ion
The mic obial isk om B. ce eus was de e mined by i s es ablishing he cu -o alues and
subsequen ly assessing he concen a ion eached pe speci ic ime (Xh) (Eq. 18). The cu -o alues
we e aken om he li e a u e, de e mining he concen a ion a which B. ce eus causes oodbo ne
illness (Anses, 2021).
𝑅𝑖𝑠𝑘𝑋ℎ
𝐵𝑐= 𝑄𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔
𝐵𝑐 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙/𝑋ℎ>𝐵𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑡𝑜𝑓𝑓×𝑃𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑒
(18)
Le o e len ils a e ei he ea en cold o ho . Du ing his i e a i e consump ion o le o e s, i may
be ehea ed o ea en cold, which can pose a mic obial isk. The unce ain y o le o e imes was
Figu e 1. The cumula i e densi y o Bacillus ce eus (uppe panel) and Lis e ia monocy ogenes (lowe panel) in
ba ch-cooked len ils in F ance a 0 and 96 h o s o age. The da k g ey egion o he cumula i e densi y cu e
co esponds o he 25 h and 75 h pe cen iles o he unce ain y, and he ligh g ey egion co esponds o he 95%
unce ain y in e als. The igu es o B. ce eus show he single cu -o alues. The L. monocy ogenes igu es show
h ee cu -o alues o low (yellow line), mode a e (o ange line), and high ( ed line) i ulence s ains.
Figu e 2. The cumula i e densi y o Bacillus ce eus (uppe panel) and Lis e ia monocy ogenes (lowe panel) in
ba ch-cooked len ils in Hunga y a 0 and 96 h o s o age. The da k g ey egion o he cumula i e densi y cu e
co esponds o he 25 h and 75 h pe cen iles o he unce ain y, and he ligh g ey a ea co esponds o he 95%
unce ain y in e als. The igu es o B. ce eus show he single cu -o alues. The L. monocy ogenes igu es show
h ee cu -o alues o low (yellow line), mode a e (o ange line), and high ( ed line) i ulence s ains
3.2. Risk es ima es pe po ion om home-cooked len ils and le o e s
The mean isk es ima es pe po ion we e de e mined o e he s o age ime (Table 2). Fo L.
monocy ogenes, hese es ima es we e null ac oss he chilled s o age pe iod. In con as , a non-ze o isk
pe po ion was es ima ed o B. ce eus a e 96 h o e ige a ion. This can be obse ed wi hin he uppe
unce ain y in e al (CI) o he mean es ima es a 7.00×10−4. The isk pe po ion a he uppe CI was
sligh ly highe o F ance han o Hunga y, which was a 9.02×10−5.
The o e all isk associa ed wi h he len il po ions and hei espec i e se ing condi ions (e.g., ho o
cold) was de e mined (Table 3). Bacillus ce eus was accoun ed o in bo h cold and ho se ed po ions,
while L. monocy ogenes was only conside ed in cold se ings. Ve y low isks we e obse ed unde bo h
se ing condi ions, bu wi h non-ze o es ima es in he uppe CI. The ho -se ed po ions we e es ima ed
o ha e sligh ly highe isks, wi h F ance ha ing highe uppe CI es ima es a 1.05×10−4 han Hunga y a
2.53×10−5. The same end be ween coun ies was obse ed o cold se ings o len il dishes. In e ms o
L. monocy ogenes, ze o isk was es ima ed in bo h coun ies o he mean and CI alues.
The combined isk o all cold se ings o len il dishes e lec s he p e ious ze o mean alues, excep
he uppe -bound CI es ima es. Be ween-coun y compa isons o o al isks e lec he same end, wi h
F ance ha ing highe isk es ima es. The nex s ep is o con ex ualise he isk es ima ed wi h he
addi ional o al bu den o disease a he popula ion le el.
Table 3. Es ima ed isk pe po ion o len il dishes in F ance and Hunga y.
Se ing condi ions
Risk [Mean, 95% CI]
F ance
Hunga y
B. ce eus
Ho se ed
0.00 [0.00; 1.05×10−4]
0.00 [0.00; 2.53×10−5]
Cold-se ed
0.00 [0.00; 1.70×10−5]
0.00 [0.00; 3.82×10−6]
L. monocy ogenes
Cold-se ed
0.00 [0.00; 0.00]
0.00 [0.00; 0.00]
Risk om all cold se ings
0.00 [0.00; 1.70×10−5]
0.00 [0.00; 3.82×10−6]
To al isk om cold and ho se ings
0.00 [0.00; 1.16×10−4]
0.00 [0.00; 2.84×10−5]
3.3. Heal h bu den om L. monocy ogenes and B. ce eus con amina ion
The es ima ed isks we e compu ed as he a ibu able oodbo ne illness cases in he en i e
popula ion o he numbe o illnesses pe yea (Table 4). The esul s ha e demons a ed ha he mean
es ima es we e ze o o he numbe o people ge ing sick due o cold o ho dishes. Howe e , he non-
ze o case es ima es we e obse ed wi hin he uppe bounds o he CI es ima es.
The pa hogen d i ing he cases was B. ce eus, wi h L. monocy ogenes as a ze o-p ojec ed case.
The ho len il se ing po ions posed a po en ially highe isk han cold dishes, wi h uppe -bound CI
mean es ima es o 27,101 cases in F ance and 493 cases in Hunga y. In e ms o he o e all numbe o
illnesses, hese we e highe o F ance (29,925 cases) han in Hunga y (554 cases).
These cases we e exp essed in DALYs by u ilising he da a on he a e age in akes and annual len il
consump ion o he whole popula ion o hese wo coun ies. This compu a ion de e mined he addi ional
heal h bu den associa ed wi h hese p ojec ed cases. Ze o mean es ima es we e also obse ed wi h he
uppe CIs esul ing in non-ze o DALYs. Highe addi ional heal h bu den we e a ibu ed o he ho
se ings han o he cold po ions.
Table 4. Es ima ed bu den o disease o he F ench and Hunga ian popula ion associa ed wi h len il-based dishes.
F ance
Hunga y
Bu den es ima es
Len il consume s and popula ion s a is ics
A e age po ion size (g)
39
73
The annual numbe o len il in akes
94
122
Numbe in he popula ion
68,000,000
9,590,000
% Consume s o d y len ils
4%
5.50%
Numbe o people ea ing d y len ils
2,720,000
527,840
Heal h impac pe yea
Mean [2.5 h; 97.5 h]
No o illnesses due o he cold se ing (B. ce eus)
0.00 [0.00; 4,406]
0.00 [0.00; 75]
No o illnesses due o he cold se ing (L. monocy ogenes)
-
-
No o illnesses due o he ho se ing (B. ce eus)
0.00 [0.00; 27,101]
0.00 [0.00; 493]
To al numbe o illnesses
0.00 [0.00; 29,925]
0.00 [0.00; 554]
To al numbe o illnesses pe 100,000
0.00 [0.00; 44]
0.00 [0.00; 5.8]
DALYs
DALYs o illnesses due o he cold se ing (B. ce eus)
0.00 [0.00; 10.13]
0.00 [0.00; 0.17]
DALYs o illness due o he cold se ing (L. monocy ogenes)
-
-
DALYs o illnesses due o he ho se ing (B. ce eus)
0.00 [0.00; 62.33]
0.00 [0.00; 1.13]
4. Discussion
The esul s o his s udy indica e ha he isk associa ed wi h len il consump ion is low in
compa ison wi h o he die a y sou ces, such as b oile and ed mea , aw ege ables, and dai y
p oduc s (EFSA, 2023). These we e implica ed in hospi alised oodbo ne cases o lis e iosis,
salmonellosis, and STEC in ec ions. Ne e heless, he selec ion o len ils was due o i s p omo ion
among he non-mea p o ein al e na i es, gi en i s mul iple posi i e impac s in e ms o ag icul u e and
nu i ional bene i s (Iqbal e al., 2006; Romano e al., 2021; Tidåke e al., 2021). The ocus on domes ic
se ings lies in hei ulne abili y o mic obial isk compa ed o o he p oduc o ms (e.g., di ec
consump ion o canned ood). The esul s indica e ha he e is a e y small isk, bu no ze o, which, i
conside ed a a popula ion le el, can s ill ha e an impac .
The cu en s udy de e mined a e y low mic obial isk wi h len il consump ion in F ance and
Hunga y. The indings o his s udy poin o an impac when ansla ed a a egional o na ional le el,
pa icula ly in F ance and Hunga y, whe e legume consump ion is encou aged as pa o he “heal hy
pla e” (i.e., F ench Na ional Nu i ion and Heal h P og am PNNS, 2019 and Hunga ian nu i ional
ecommenda ion Okos ányé , 2021). These may in luence people o consume mo e, including he
posi i e pe cep ion associa ed wi h i . The e o e, egula o s, pa icula ly hose who p omo e die a y
shi s, mus employ QMRA and o he p elimina y assessmen s. These es ima es may change in o he
legume p oduc s, which a e ou side he scope o his s udy and he model de eloped.
The non-ze o es ima es highligh he need o inco po a e a iabili y and unce ain y su ounding he
inpu s. These es ima es can s ill be u he e ined by inco po a ing be e da a on domes ic p ac ices.
O e all, i can be said ha good cooking and domes ic p ac ices a e cu en ly being obse ed.
Ne e heless, i people a e pushing he s o age ime (e.g., 6 days), he isk es ima es will change. F om
his, we can calcula e di e en scena ios ocusing on domes ic p ac ice changes. O he bac e ia (e.g.,
spoilage bac e ia) migh come in o play. Despi e his change, he cu en model and associa ed
modelling s a egy can s ill be used wi h modi ica ion o he inpu a iables (e.g., g ow h a e).
The ini ial con amina ion and du a ion o e ige a ion in luenced he mic obial concen a ion o
le o e s o e ime. The ini ial coun s we e based on he li e a u e (Beume e al., 1996; Blakey and
P ies , 1980), bu a mo e ecen s udy o hese coun ies was no a ailable o bo h bac e ia. This
indica es he need o mo e upda ed da a on d ied len ils, as consump ion is being p omo ed. The
change in he p e alence and le els o B. ce eus spo es can inc ease o educe he es ima ed isks o
he popula ion. The p obabili y associa ed wi h he p e alence o B. ce eus in hese packages was
desc ibed by a be a dis ibu ion. This is a con inuous dis ibu ion commonly used o desc ibe he
p esence o B. ce eus in packaged ood p oduc s (Kwon e al., 2020; Wang e al., 2023). The ini ial
concen a ion was desc ibed using he Be noulli dis ibu ion. These coun s we e educed by hea ing and
signi ican ly educing mic obial isks. Bacillus ce eus g ew du ing e ige a ion, which pa ially undoes
he e ec o cooking. This is simila o he s udy o Kobayashi e al. (2021), who demons a ed he abili y
o B. ce eus s ains o g ow a e 4–10 days a 6–10°C. This s udy epo s on psych o ophic and non-
psych o ophic s ains in nu ien b o h, and g ow h was es ima ed using lab medium a e 4–28 days o
incuba ion a cons an empe a u es (4, 6, 8, and 10°C) om 5 log spo es/mL o isible u bidi y.
The p esence o L. monocy ogenes in le o e s sugges s econ amina ion e en s a e ba ch
cooking. The low mic obial coun s e lec he low p e alence o L. monocy ogenes in domes ic
e ige a o s. In addi ion, i p esen , hese we e ound in low le els (0–1 log CFU) (Beume e al., 1996).
Ne e heless, he p e alence used in his s udy is simila in Po ugal (3.9%) and G eece (4.5%)
(Aze edo e al., 2005; Se gelidis e al., 1997). Recon amina ion e en s ha e been he main d i ing
cause o L. monocy ogenes in oods and a e linked o oodbo ne ou b eaks in home and ood
manu ac u ing acili ies (Mø e ø e al., 2024; Zhang e al., 2022). The esul s demons a e ha cu en
len il cooking and pos -cooking p ac ices in F ance and Hunga y ha e no signi ican ly in oduced
econ amina ion. A mo e complex pos -cooking scena io (e.g., addi ion o esh ing edien s in ba ch-
cooked len ils) and c oss-con amina ion can impac hese es ima es (Possas e al., 2017). In addi ion,
u u e scena ios can in luence he ood sa e y o len ils. Se e al s udies ha e demons a ed ha oom
empe a u es can in luence he mic obial isk. This was demons a ed by he mic obial spoilage isk o
ui juice (Kakagianni e al., 2016), e apo a ed canned milk (Kakagianni and Kou soumanis, 2018;
Kou soumanis e al., 2022), and plan -based al e na i es (Misiou e al., 2023). These esul s highligh
ha exis ing and p ojec ed empe a u es du ing s o age can impac spoilage due o he consequen
change in he mic obial concen a ion. The e o e, cau ion should be applied in he u u e, as he e is a
need o a mo e sys ema ic e alua ion o clima e change in mic obial isk assessmen . The e ige a ion
empe a u es used in his s udy a e based on ac ual e ige a o empe a u es o coun ies loca ed in
Wes e n Eu ope. Re ige a ion empe a u es a y depending on loca ion (Rocca o e al., 2017). These
changes, whe he due o loca ion o clima e change, may a ec ood sa e y isks ha can come om
len il consump ion. These alues mus change acco dingly i he cu en model is o be adop ed in o he
coun ies, which may a ec ood sa e y isks. This has been obse ed in a simila s udy whe e
concen a ed milk has a highe spoilage p obabili y due o ho e oom empe a u es and highe
e ige a ion empe a u es (Misiou e al., 2023).
The mic obial sa e y isk o len il po ions was de e mined using cu -o alues, which, i eached,
will esul in oodbo ne illness. The cu -o alues we e de i ed om scien i ic li e a u e de ailing he
mic obial concen a ion le els linked o oodbo ne illness o B. ce eus and L. monocy ogenes. The B.
ce eus cu -o alues de i ed o his s udy a e based on 105 CFU/g, which assumes ha a his le el, i
can cause oodbo ne illness (Anses, 2021). This was he bes a ailable da a gi en ha a dose–
esponse s udy wi h LD50 was no a ailable o B. ce eus cells o ce eulide oxins (Rouzeau-Szynalski e
al., 2020). The cu en model measu es he isk om cold and ho dishes, e lec ing bo h oodbo ne
in oxica ion o B. ce eus due o ce eulide oxin and in ec ion om ege a i e cells. By inges ing oxins,
we only e alua e eme ic symp oms, and hese symp oms a e decla ed a 105 CFU/g o ood. Howe e ,
some imes, ood con amina ed wi h 103 is su icien o cause illness, and o he imes, mo e han 108 is
needed (Anses, 2021).
The p e alence o B. ce eus s ains in di e en ood samples was no a ailable. The e o e, i was
assumed ha B. ce eus belonged o g oup III o IV, which a e i ulen s ains acco ding o he li e a u e
(Guineb e iè e e al., 2010; Mombe e al., 2024). Lis e ia monocy ogenes is well-s udied wi h exis ing
LD50, and he p e alence o i ulen s ains in ood samples enhanced he es ima es (Pouillo e al.,
2024).
The low- isk es ima es o oodbo ne illness we e es ima ed o all len il dishes excep o he uppe -
bound CI es ima es. These show he unce ain y in he es ima es, wi h la ge a iabili y in he esul s.
These non-ze o es ima es o isk ansla e in o a high numbe o occu ences o oodbo ne illnesses pe
yea a he popula ion le el. This inding demons a es he impo ance o p obabilis ic isk assessmen in
cap u ing he unce ain y ac oss he model. Fu he mo e, i hese es ima es we e ansla ed a he
popula ion le el, i would esul in p ojec ed cases o oodbo ne illnesses. Such in o ma ion can help in
es ima ing he addi ional bu den o len il consump ion on he popula ion. This b idges he gap be ween
domes ic p ac ices and ood sa e y in he supply chain and he public heal h impac . Fu he mo e, he
esul s can guide public heal h o icials in e alua ing any u u e len il consump ion p omo ion policies.
When compa ing se ing condi ions, a high isk associa ed wi h ho dishes can be linked o a highe
equency o consump ion. This can be linked wi h he end in F ance and Hunga y o ehea ba ch-
cooked len ils.
The cu en s udy poin s o domes ic p ac ices (i.e., cooking, cooling, ehea ing, and e ige a ion)
and hygiene a home as he main d i e s o mic obial isks. These highligh he ole o hea ing in
educing he ini ial mic obial load. The cooling a oom empe a u e o 12 h in his si ua ion (i.e., low
con amina ion le el, low oom empe a u e, high hea ea men ) was no shown o pose mic obial isks.
Ne e heless, le o e s mus be kep a a empe a u e lowe han 6°C and consumed wi hin 72 h. In
F ance, his dec ease in empe a u e mus be achie ed wi hin 2 h. I was also demons a ed ha ood
sa e y p ac ices play a ole, such as main aining he cold empe a u e o cooked meals and p ope
cooking o oods. The implica ions o domes ic p ac ices go beyond he cu en scena io o o he
legume-based oods p epa ed in mixed dishes (e.g., legume wi h sausages). The exis ing isk
associa ed wi h domes ic p epa a ion and s o age p ac ices will d i e he isk in ull o pa ial plan -
based die s. This is expec ed o ise as he in ake o legumes inc eases. The e o e, cu en domes ic
p ac ices mus be conside ed as len il consump ion is p omo ed (Minis è e des Solida i és e de la
San é, 2019; Na ional Ins i u e o Pha macy and Nu i ion, 2021; PNNS, 2019; Okos ányé , 2021).
These esul s can also guide ins i u ional ca e ing es ablishmen s ha employ la ge-scale ba ch-
cooking p ac ices and s o age. Len il consump ion is also being pushed in hese se ings as pa o an
e o o consume al e na i e p o eins in bo h F ance and Hunga y (Mag ini e al., 2021; Nagy e al.,
2021).
The use o mic obial isk assessmen can also be done in o he con ex s, such as mixed ood
se ings and wi h o he p o ein al e na i es. Sepa a e mic obial isk assessmen s mus be pe o med
wi h espec o i s haza ds, p ocessing, and associa ed domes ic p ac ices. Ne e heless, hese u u e
assessmen s may be in o med by he cu en s udy h ough he inpu s used and he modelling
amewo k applied. Addi ionally, he cu en s udy can be combined wi h hese u u e assessmen s o
o he p o ein al e na i es o ha e a mo e comple e pic u e o he isk o p o ein al e na i es and hei
impac on he o e all die o he popula ion. The e o e, upda ed da a a e needed o de e mine he
p e alence o i ulen B. ce eus s ains and mic obial concen a ion le els in impo ed o locally
p oduced len ils. An upda ed su ey on L. monocy ogenes in domes ic se ings and e ige a o s om
hese wo coun ies is needed. The consume da a used (INCA 3) is he mos comp ehensi e da a
a ailable o he F ench popula ion in e ms o mean consump ion. I s new e sion is s ill being p epa ed
by he San é publique F ance and Anses, which is called he Albane su ey (h ps://www.enque e-
albane. /). The cu en modelling app oach can enhance u u e es ima es o isks and addi ional heal h
bu dens o he popula ion.
Food consump ion ends, pa icula ly hose o a plan -based die s, a e on he ise due o hei
nu i ional bene i s and low en i onmen al impac . These can also be linked o hei posi i e consume
pe cep ion (Spend up and Ho malm, 2022). Howe e , despi e hese plan -based oods being linked o
se e al chemical isks (e.g., hea y me als and myco oxins) (Lin e al., 2023). In len ils, he hea y me al
cadmium, which is in oduced in he ield due o he use o chemical e ilise s, has been ound in
F ance (Pla e o me de Su eillance de la Chaine Alimen ai e, 2023) and o he coun ies (Six and
Smolde s, 2014; Zhang e al., 2020). The e o e, chemical isk assessmen should be pe o med in
u u e s udies o len il consump ion and he o e all len il supply chain. Se e al s udies ha e also
employed isk–bene i analysis in de e mining he chemical isk and nu i ional bene i o subs i u ing ed
mea wi h pulses (Fab icius e al., 2021).
In e ms o mic obial isk, he educ ion o mea consump ion can lead o he educ ion o oodbo ne
illnesses linked o mea consump ion (e.g., Salmonella, Esche ichia coli, and Campylobac e ) (Wa ma e
and Ona inde, 2023). This can also educe he in oduc ion o mea in domes ic se ings, as mic obes
a e usually c oss-con amina ed om mea and sp ead ac oss ki chen su aces and u ensils ( an de
Vossen-Wijmenga e al., 2025). O e all, hese highligh he necessi y o including he assessmen o
mic obiological isk be o e ecommending new die s.
The cu en s udy con ibu es o his junc u e bu om a mic obial ood sa e y pe spec i e. This
esea ch highligh s he added alue o QMRA in de e mining he heal h bu den ha may a ise om any
unin ended and implici mic obial isks. Fi s , i es ima es he mic obial isk due o he consump ion o
one ood p oduc , and hen, i p omo es good consume p ac ices ha can help minimise isks (i
possible).
In addi ion o hese possible ools, a mo e nuanced and holis ic iew o ood policy on die a y
shi s mus be conside ed. S ee ing consume consump ion is no easy, as i mus be based on
indi idual choices. Ul ima ely, policies ha aim o “die a y shi s” mus be an inclusi e and mul i-
s akeholde app oach ha espec s consume igh s in all o i s aspec s.
Indeed, mic obial isk, chemical isk, and nu i ional bene i a e no he only isks ha may a ise
om he ood supply chain. As men ioned in he in oduc ion, en i onmen al impac mus also be
conside ed, and a win–win solu ion mus be a ained. A ecen publica ion highligh s he di e en ools
and amewo ks ha can be used o holis ic isk assessmen s (O szágh e al., 2024). This pape is a
pa o a bigge s udy inco po a ing o he dimensions.
Acknowledgemen s:
This esea ch has ecei ed unding om he Eu opean Union’s Ho izon Resea ch and Inno a ion
Ac ions g an ag eemen no. 101059813, (HOLiFOOD) (h ps://holi oodp ojec .eu/abou /). The au ho s
would also like o hank Cons anza De Ma eu Mon ei o and E ika O szágh, who helped in he
consump ion da a acquisi ion p ocess.
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