Name o he Deli e able
Ex-an e impac
assessmen o supply
chain go e nance
ini ia i es on
biodi e si y
conside ing leakage
Deli e able 7.3
2
Summa y
Wo k Package
7
Deli e able No
7.3
Dissemina ion Le el
Public
Type
Repo
Lead Pa ne
IIASA
Due Da e
Sep embe 30 h, 2025
Submission Da e
Oc obe 8 h, 2025
S a us
Ve sion 1.0
Au ho s
Da id Leclè e, Cla a F ezal, Pekka Lau i, Be ina
Meinha , Amanda Palazzo, Sibylle Roue -Pollakis,
Niklas Hinkel, Leopold Ringwal, Ful io di Ful io &
And ey Lessa De ci Augus ynczik (IIASA), Ra aella
Fe az Ziege (Uni e si y o Bonn)
Abou CLEVER
P ojec Numbe
101060765
P ojec Ti le
CLEVER: C ea ing le e age o enhance biodi e si y
ou comes o global biomass ade
Topic
HORIZON-CL6-2021-BIODIV-01-15
S a da e
1s Sep embe 2022
End da e
31s Augus 2025
Coo dina o
RHEINISCHE FRIEDRICH-WILHELMS-UNIVERSITAT BONN
This documen has been p epa ed in he amewo k o he p ojec CLEVER. Views
and opinions exp essed a e howe e hose o he au ho (s) only and do no
necessa ily e lec hose o he Eu opean Union o he Eu opean Resea ch
Execu i e Agency. Nei he he Eu opean Union no he g an ing au ho i y can be
held esponsible o hem.
3
This p ojec has ecei ed unding om he Eu opean Resea ch
Execu i e Agency unde HORIZON Resea ch and Inno a ion Ac ions,
g an ag eemen no101060765; and om he UK Resea ch and
Inno a ion (UKRI) unde he UK go e nmen 's Ho izon Eu ope unding
gua an ee [g an numbe 10038491]
4
Con en s
Table o Con en s
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................... 5
O e iew o me hods .................................................................................................................... 5
Summa y o soy supply chains ...................................................................................................... 5
Summa y o o es y supply chains ............................................................................................... 8
Summa y o c op aqua eed supply chains .................................................................................... 11
INTRODUCTION & OBJECTIVES ..................................................................................................... 13
Soy supply chains .......................................................................................................................... 13
Fo es supply chains ..................................................................................................................... 15
Aquacul u e and aqua eed supply chains ...................................................................................... 17
METHODS ........................................................................................................................................ 19
Soy supply chains .......................................................................................................................... 19
O e all app oach ............................................................................................................................................... 19
Scena io desc ip ion .......................................................................................................................................... 20
Quan i ica ion .................................................................................................................................................... 25
Fo es supply chains ..................................................................................................................... 26
O e all app oach ............................................................................................................................................... 26
Scena io desc ip ion .......................................................................................................................................... 28
Quan i ica ion .................................................................................................................................................... 32
Aquacul u e and aqua eed supply chains ...................................................................................... 33
O e all app oach ............................................................................................................................................... 33
Scena io desc ip ion .......................................................................................................................................... 34
Quan i ica ion .................................................................................................................................................... 38
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ............................................................................................................ 39
Soy supply chains .......................................................................................................................... 39
Resul s ............................................................................................................................................................... 39
Discussion .......................................................................................................................................................... 70
Fo es supply chains ..................................................................................................................... 81
Resul s ............................................................................................................................................................... 81
Discussion .......................................................................................................................................................... 94
Aquacul u e & aqua eed supply chains ......................................................................................... 96
Resul s ............................................................................................................................................................... 96
Discussion ........................................................................................................................................................ 105
PROJECT OUTPUTS ACHIEVED .................................................................................................... 108
REFERENCES .................................................................................................................................. 109
5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This deli e able con ains he analysis o u u e scena ios o 2050 o h ee supply chains: soy,
o es and aqua eeds. While i complemen s he analysis om an ea lie deli e able (D7.2) wi h
he analysis o addi ional scena ios, mos o he in o ma ion con ained in D7.2 is included as
well, a leas in a summa y o m, o enable an analysis o he ull scena io se . Fo he scena ios
al eady co e ed in D7.2, he eade migh howe e ind mo e de ails in D7.2 han in his
deli e able.
O e iew o me hods
The scena ios ha e been co-designed h ough li e a u e e iew and dedica ed s akeholde
wo kshops, and quan i ied wi h he GLOBIOM land use model, which p ojec s he dynamics o
mos impo an ag icul u al and o es y supply chains and hei socio-economic and
en i onmen al impac s om he yea 2000 in o he u u e wi h a decadal ime s ep (up o 2050
o e en 2100). Impac s a e analysed o a ious indica o s ela ed o ma ke balance (demand,
supply, ade) as well as en i onmen al (e.g., land and wa e use, GHG emissions, biodi e si y)
and economic (e.g., ood a ailabili y, alue o p oduc ion) ou comes, a global scale wi h a ocus
on he EU and B azil. A pa icula e o is made o quan i y impac s on biodi e si y, wi h mul iple
ecosys ems and impac pa hways conside ed when possible.
A b ie in oduc ion o he modelling amewo k is p o ided in he deli e able D7.1, while a
de ailed desc ip ion o dedica ed modelling imp o emen s conduc ed as pa o Wo k Package
6 ac i i ies can be ound in he deli e ables D6.1, D6.2, D6.3, D6.4 and D6.5.
Fo all h ee supply chains, he scena io se con ains a baseline scena io (MS15) depic ing wha
hese supply chains migh look like i his o ical ends in demand, supply and ade a e p olonged
in he u u e. We hen conside al e na i e u u es, speci ic o each supply chains, and a ying
a ious aspec s ela ed o po en ial al e na i e sec o ial de elopmen s, pa ly in esponse o he
global clima e and biodi e si y c isis, bu also in es iga ing al e na i e assump ions abou land
managemen s a egies, echnological p og ess, demand p e e ences, and ade ne wo ks.
Al oge he , hese scena ios p o ide con as ed explo a i e u u es, p o iding a b oad pic u e o
wha u u e sec o ial ends migh look like, and wha he con ibu ion o key unde lying
assump ions a e. The li e a u e e iew unde pinning he p elimina y scena ios (p io o he
s akeholde wo kshops) a e p o ided in he INTRODUCTION sec ion, while he eedback om
he s akeholde s and he scena ios o each supply chains a e de ailed in he METHODS sec ion.
Fo each supply chain, da ase s o he model ou pu s a e p o ided as sepa a e Zenodo eco ds,
lis ed in he PROJECTS OUTPUTS ACHIEVED sec ion.
Summa y o soy supply chains
The baseline scena io depic s a business-as-usual u u e, based on he ‘Middle o he Road’
Sha ed Socioeconomic Pa hway (SSP2), complemen ed wi h key land use policies in B azil.
Unde his business-as-usual scena io, he global demand o li es ock and c op p oduc s keeps
g owing, and he expo s o soy-based p oduc s om B azil inc ease by 76% o e he 2020-2050
6
pe iod, wi h inc eases o he EU bu p ima ily o Asia. While ood a ailabili y and he alue o
ag icul u al p oduc ion inc ease globally, u he biodi e si y losses om ag icul u al ac i i ies
a e p ojec ed. In B azil, al hough limi ed by he Amazon Soy Mo a o ium and he Fo es Code,
addi ional de o es a ion is p ojec ed, p ima ily h ough con e sion o pas u es. The inc ease in
soy p oduc ion is achie ed mainly h ough an expansion o e pas u es and yield gains.
Biodi e si y impac s om ag icul u e inc ease o bo h aqua ic and e es ial ecosys ems,
al hough a a slowe pace han in ecen decades o e es ial biodi e si y. O e all, his poin s
o a clea ade-o be ween economic and en i onmen al goals in he coming decades, wi h
conside able de elopmen oppo uni ies o he soy sec o in B azil, and a modes ole o he
EU wi h mode a ely inc easing impo s bu a small and declining ma ke sha e.
A i s al e na i e scena io in D7.2 explo ed he impac o a global ood sys ems sus ainabili y
ansi ion owa ds bending global biodi e si y loss. Based on he In eg a ed Ac ion Po olio
(IAP) scena io om he Bending he Cu e s udy (Leclè e e al., 2020), i en ails a comp ehensi e
package o conse a ion and es o a ion measu es, demand-side measu es (lowe sha e o
animal p oduc s in he die s, educed was e and loss) and supply side measu es (sus ainably
inc eased yields). I leads o simila ou comes in e ms o ood a ailabili y globally, bu o la ge
dec eases in he alue o p oduc ion o li es ock p oduc s and, o a lowe ex en , soy h ough
a educ ion in li es ock eed demand. The p oduc ion and ade o soy is p ojec ed inc ease
sligh ly abo e 2020 le els, and expo s o soy-based p oduc s om B azil inc ease by abou 20%
o e 2020-2050, while soya impo s om he EU dec ease below 2020 le els. As a esul ,
biodi e si y losses dec ease signi ican ly globally, as well as in B azil h ough a oided land
con e sion and he es o a ion o low in ensi y pas u es. O e all, his poin s o he isks e o s
owa ds he global en i onmen al c isis, and in pa icula die shi s, may pose o he li es ock
and soy sec o , globally and in pa icula in B azil.
A second al e na i e scena io in D7.2 explo ed he impac o an idealized ambi ious
conse a ion policy in B azil. I en ails a sensi i i y expe imen in which, on op o he baseline
scena io no con e sion o ei he o es o o he na u al land o ag icul u al land is allowed, o
be e unde s and he bounda y condi ions o he B azilian soy sec o . As opposed o he
p e ious scena io, i does no assume any global ood sys ems sus ainabili y ansi ion. This
scena io leads o e y simila ou comes han he baseline scena io, including a e y la ge
inc ease in soy p oduc ion and expo s om B azil (including some inc ease o he EU), as well
as in he alue o ag icul u al p oduc ion. Howe e , i leads o a s ong dec ease in biodi e si y
impac s, e en lowe han in he p e ious scena io o land-use change-media ed impac s on
e es ial ecosys ems, o one ou o he wo ela ed indica o s. Al hough his scena io is
p ojec ed o lead o much lowe le els o pas u e es o a ion as compa ed o he p e ious
scena io, his poin s o a la ge ma gin o achie ing ambi ious biodi e si y ou comes in B azil
h ough hal ing land deg ada ion wi hou sac i icing po en ial economic oppo uni ies. This
indica es a po en ial in e es om B azil soy p oduce s o suppo ambi ious conse a ion in
B azil, in o de o a oid a global shi in human die s.
A las al e na i e scena io in D7.2 explo ed he long- e m impac s o he US-China ade
dispu e on soy ma ke s. Based on ecen de elopmen s in soya expo s om USA o China, i
explo es he implica ions o an assumed cap on USA soya expo s o China se 25% below 2020
le els, pic u ing long-las ing educed ma ke sha es o USA soya expo s o China h ough us
7
and eliabili y issues. In his scena io, we p ojec China o u n o B azil o compensa e o mos
o he impo sho all. This is p ojec ed o be achie ed wi h limi ed impac s on o he expo
des ina ion o B azil’s soy-based p oduc s, while he expo sho all om he USA is no
ealloca ed o o he des ina ions, in a con ex o e y compe i i e ma ke s. T ends in he impo
o soya-based p oduc s o he EU om di e en sou cing egions a e expec ed o emain simila
o he baseline. Impac s on biodi e si y in B azil and elsewhe e, which a e signi ican inc easing
in he baseline, a e no p ojec ed o be signi ican ly highe in his scena io. Mode a e losses in
soy p oduce e enues a e p ojec ed in he USA as compa ed o he baseline, as a esul o bo h
p oduc ion and p ice declines. Unde he condi ion ha cu en key land use policies o he
soy sec o s ay in place, his poin s o he US-China ade dispu e being a e y modes h ea
o B azilian ecosys ems, as compa ed o he g owing demand o li es ock p oduc s, in
pa icula in China.
The i s wo scena ios de eloped in D7.3 look a he impac o he implemen a ion o new EU
ade- ela ed policies, namely he EU De o es a ion Regula ion (EUDR) and a combina ion o
he EUDR and he EU-Me cosu ade ag eemen (EUM+EUDR). Based on econome ics
modelling and a li e a u e e iew, he EUDR and he EUM+EUDR a e es ima ed o lead o a 3%
decline ( h ough EUDR compliance cos s) and a 15% inc ease ( h ough a combina ion o EUDR
compliance cos s and EUM- ela ed inc eased compe i i eness), espec i ely, in B azil soy
expo s o he EU compa ed o he SSP2 baseline scena io by 2050. We assumed ha he supply
o de o es a ion- ee soy in B azil is su icien o co e EU impo s. The implemen a ion o he
EU policies leads o small ealloca ion in soy ade bu do no a ec o e all B azil soy expo
le els and p oduc ion compa ed o he SSP2. Gi en ha he EU policies do no a ec B azil soy
p oduc ion, hey lead o simila ou comes o land use, AFOLU emissions and biodi e si y loss in
B azil as he SSP2 scena io. This poin s o he limi ed impac o EU policies on global ma ke s,
bu also on B azil soy sec o and ecosys ems gi en he la ge a ailabili y o EUDR-complian soy
in B azil and he small sha e o he EU in o al soy expo s om B azil.
The nex wo new scena ios in D7.3 conside he eac ion o public and p i a e s akeholde s in
B azil o he new EU policies, ei he s eng hening o weakening hei land conse a ion e o s.
I is i s assumed ha he implemen a ion o he EU policies leads o ze o absolu e con e sion
o o es and o he na u al land o ag icul u e in B azil due o incen i es o s akeholde s o
main ain o inc ease hei access o he EU ma ke . This esul s in sligh ly lowe pos -2020
g ow h in B azil soy p oduc ion and expo s compa ed o he SSP2 bu in la ge educ ion in
AFOLU emissions and biodi e si y impac s. This sugges s ha EU policies could ha e posi i e
impac s on biodi e si y in B azil wi hou comp omising economic oppo uni ies o a me s i
hey succeed o suppo inc eased domes ic conse a ion e o s (‘B ussels e ec ’). The
opposi e assump ion is hen made, namely ha he EU policies lead o a weakening o public
and p i a e land conse a ion e o s in B azil. The la e is modelled as a emo al o he Amazon
Soy Mo a o ium p oduc ion cons ain oge he wi h a educ ion in he p obabili y o illegal
de o es a ion con ols as pa o he Fo es Code in bo h he Amazonia and Ce ado biomes. This
leads o a ealloca ion o soy p oduc ion (and o he c ops o a lowe ex en ) o he Amazonia
biome and mos ly away om he Ce ado bu o a limi ed expansion in o e all soy p oduc ion
and soy a ea in B azil compa ed o he SSP2. Gi en he limi ed o e all land use impac s in B azil,
impac s on biodi e si y by 2050 a e small, and o inconsis en sign ac oss me ics. Howe e ,
cumula i e biodi e si y impac s associa ed wi h land use change o e he 2020-50 pe iod a e
8
signi ican ly wo se han when conside ing he implemen a ion o he EU policies on hei own
and he e es ial ecosys ems impac o he soy supply chain a e qui e highe han in he 2050
SSP2. Ne e heless, his sugges s ha he po en ial ad e se e ec s o de egula ion in B azil in
esponse o EU policies migh be limi ed in absence o highe demand, and assuming limi ed
‘land g abbing’ dynamics.
Finally, he las wo scena ios o D7.3 explo e he impac o al e na i e policies o he EUDR in
educing he en i onmen al oo p in o EU impo s. Fi s , he implemen a ion o he EU bo de
biodi e si y adjus men ax on o es isk commodi ies (i.e., soy-based p oduc s, palm oil and
bee ) is conside ed. The ax leads o an o e all decline in EU impo s o palm oil and soy-based
p oduc s as well as a subs i u ion away om BRA and OSA soy impo s owa ds impo s om
egions wi h lowe biodi e si y oo p in o soy (mainly he US) and domes ic soy p oduc ion,
o a lowe ex en . This leads o small decline in he p oduc ion olume and alue o soy in BRA
and OSA, and an inc ease in he EU (al hough om a e y low basis) and NAM, o a lowe ex en .
Howe e , gi en he limi ed impac o he ax on o e all p oduc ion le els and land use in he
di e en egions, i does no impac e es ial and aqua ic ecosys ems in he EU, and only leads
o a small decline in impac s on eshwa e ecosys ems in B azil and a small inc ease in NAM
compa ed o he SSP2.
An inc ease in EU demand-side sus ainabili y e o s is also conside ed as an al e na i e o he
EUDR, including bo h a die shi away om animal p oduc s and was e educ ion o a m o
o k. The shi in EU die s leads o la ge educ ion in he p oduc ion olume and e en la ge
decline in p oduc ion alue o li es ock and c op p oduc s in he EU compa ed o he 2050 SSP2.
This esul s in a d op in pas u eland and c opland ( o a lowe ex en ) and co esponding inc ease
in o he na u al lands. AFOLU emissions and biodi e si y impac s a e signi ican ly educed
compa ed o he SSP2 (bu emain highe han in he IAP scena io which also conside s supply-
side and conse a ion and es o a ion measu es in addi ion o measu es on he demand-side).
EU impo s o soy-based p oduc s also d op compa ed o he 2050 SSP2, mainly due o a decline
in i s impo s om B azil. Howe e , his has limi ed impac on B azil o e all soy expo s and
p oduc ion le el, and he e o e esul s in biodi e si y impac s on eshwa e and e es ial
ecosys ems ha a e only sligh ly (1-2%) lowe han he SSP2. This sugges s ha , despi e la ge
dec eases in EU soy impo s and a low isk ha he o egone B azil soy expo s is ealloca ed
o o he des ina ions, al e na i e policies do no lead o signi ican ly be e biodi e si y
ou comes in B azil han he EUDR, due o he low EU sha e in o al soy expo s om B azil. I
should also be no ed ha all h ee op ions ha e con as ed impac s on soy p oduce s in a ious
egions, wi h EU demand-side measu es leading o he mos biodi e si y impac educ ions
bu also o he highes impac on soy p oduce s o e all.
Summa y o o es y supply chains
The baseline scena io depic s a business-as-usual u u e whe e bioene gy demand is ixed a
2020 le el, cons uc ion ma e ial demand is d i en by popula ion and GDP g ow h unde he
Sha e Socioeconomic Pa hway (SSP) 2 and plan a ion o es a ea is ixed a 2020 le el. An
al e na i e business-as-usual demand scena io, whe e plan a ion o es s can expand ou side
he na u al o es s a ea is also conside ed. Unde he business-as-usual scena ios, oundwood
ha es olumes a e p ojec ed o mode a ely inc ease by 2100. Ne expo s o wood-based
9
p oduc s a e ela i ely s able, wi h bo eal/ empe a e egions losing compe i i eness and
opical egions gaining some. A o es a ion up ake leads o an inc ease in o es ca bon s o age
in he coming decades, compensa ing o declining ca bon s o age in he exis ing
na u al/semina u al o es a ea. The global biodi e si y impac s om o es y diminish o e
ime, and sligh ly highe educ ion is obse ed when allowing plan a ion o es expansion. This
sugges s ha mode a e g ow h in demand o wood-based p oduc s could be achie ed wi h
an inc ease in o es ca bon s o age and wi h less p essu e on biodi e si y.
A i s se o scena ios de eloped in D7.2 explo ed he impac o an inc ease in demand o
cons uc ion ma e ials and/o bioene gy wi hou allowing o plan a ion o es s expansion.
The global demand o bioene gy is assumed o double be ween 2020 and 2100 and 90% o he
new u ban popula ion is assumed o li e in wooden buildings, wi h he ela ed demand inc ease
o wood-based p oduc s p ima ily loca ed in A ica and Asia. Highe demand o cons uc ion
ma e ials leads o a 50% inc ease in ha es olumes compa ed o he baseline, mos ly occu ing
in Asia, A ica and La in Ame ica. Na u al o es managemen is la gely in ensi ied, wi h up o
300Mha o na u al o es s being aken in o p oduc ion, and nega i e implica ions o bo h o es
ca bon balance and biodi e si y. Highe bioene gy demand, on he o he hand, has a limi ed
impac on ha es olumes as i is mainly me h ough an expansion in ene gy c ops p oduc ion.
Highe bioene gy demand esul s in an inc ease in o es ca bon s o age compa ed o he
baseline due o g owing ca bon s o age o BECSS, and a educ ion in biodi e si y impac s o e
ime, al hough a a lowe a e han in he BAU scena ios. This sugges s ha s ong g ow h in
demand o cons uc ion ma e ials could exe signi ican p essu e on biodi e si y i me
h ough in ensi ied na u al o es s managemen whe eas highe demand o bioene gy has a
limi ed impac as i mainly sou ced om ene gy c ops expansion.
A second se o scena ios de eloped in D7.2 explo ed he impac o a simila inc ease in
demand o cons uc ion ma e ials and/o bioene gy bu wi h he possibili y o expanding
plan a ion o es s ou side he na u al o es s a ea. This leads o an addi ional inc ease in
ha es olumes as compa ed o he baseline, due o lowe oundwood p ices as plan a ion
o es s a e mo e e icien han na u al/semina u al o es s. This also leads o an inc ease in he
sha e o wood sou ced om opical egions, whe e he p oduc i i y o o es plan a ions is
highe . Impo an ly, plan a ion expansion enables he elease o 200-300 million hec a es o
semina u al o es s om p oduc ion and hei es o a ion in o na u al o es s, bu leads o some
decline in (biodi e si y poo ) o he na u al land and ag icul u al land. Mo eo e , when
conside ing a join inc ease in cons uc ion ma e ials and bioene gy demand, a ailable
plan a ion a ea and he e o e spa ed na u al o es s a ea a e lowe (compa ed o he scena io
wi h highe ma e ial demand only) as ene gy c ops and plan a ion o es s compe e o he same
land. Bu o e all, plan a ion o es expansion leads o much be e ou comes o o es ca bon
balance and biodi e si y han an in ensi ica ion in na u al o es managemen (wi h impac s
being close o baseline le els). This highligh s he po en ial o a la ge expansion in plan a ion
o es s in suppo ing he de elopmen o a wood-based bioeconomy while alle ia ing
p essu e on na u al o es s and biodi e si y. Howe e , his also poin s o a po en ial ade-o
be ween wood and bioene gy p oduc ion g ow h due o land compe i ion be ween plan a ion
o es s and ene gy c ops.
16
managemen and wood-based p oduc s supply chains, bu does no include he ag icul u e
sec o (Azue o-Ped aza e al., 2024; Ful io e al., 2025a; Lau i e al., 2021; Schul e e al., 2025).
Wood-based p oduc s ha e been o e ed as a solu ion o educe CO2 emissions in he ene gy
and ma e ial sec o s. Woody biomass can be used o p oduce di e en inal ene gy ca ie s such
as hea , powe and anspo uels as well as di e en ma e ials such as bioplas ic, ex iles,
packaging and cons uc ion ma e ials. Mo eo e , abou 25 % (1150 Mha) o o al global o es
a ea (4060 Mha) is cu en ly used o p oduc ion, so i would be possible o inc ease woody
biomass p oduc ion by mobilizing he emaining 75% (2910 Mha) o o es a ea o p oduc ion
(FAO, 2020). Howe e , he emaining o es a ea consis s o biodi e si y- ich ecosys ems ha
p o ide impo an ecosys em se ices such as ca bon seques a ion, soil p o ec ion o
g oundwa e il a ion. These se ices a e unlikely o be main ained i he p oduc ion o es a ea
was o be conside ably inc eased om i s cu en le el. The e o e, he e is a need o new ypes
o o es supply chain solu ions, which do no comp omise he supply o o he o es -based
ecosys em se ices.
T adi ionally woody biomass (o oundwood) has been p oduced in na u al o semina u al
o es s, bu du ing he las 30 yea s an inc easing sha e o oundwood p oduc ion has mo ed o
plan a ion o es s. Plan a ion o es s a e “in ensi ely managed plan ed o es s, which
speci ically include sho o a ion plan a ions and exclude o es s plan ed o p o ec ion o
es o a ion”(FAO, 2020). Cu en ly hey co e abou 10% o he global p oduc ion o es a ea
and accoun o abou 30% o he global oundwood supply (Mish a e al., 2021). This highligh s
he impo ance o plan a ion o es s wi h espec o mee ing inc easing demand o woody
biomass o bioene gy and cons uc ion ma e ials.
Plan a ion o es s could also play an impo an ole in he sus ainabili y o o es managemen ,
as oundwood p oduc i i y is 2-5 imes highe han in na u al o semi-na u al o es s. The e o e,
mo ing oundwood p oduc ion om na u al/semina u al o es o plan a ion o es s would ee
up mo e a ea o he supply o o he o es -based ecosys em se ices.
Howe e , plan a ion o es s expansion ha e also aised conce n abou losing ou old-g ow h
g assland and o he biodi e si y ich na u al ege a ion a eas (Bond, 2016). This may occu
di ec ly i plan a ion o es s de elop o e such ecosys ems, bu may also occu indi ec ly i
plan a ion o es s de elop o e ag icul u al land and igge he con e sion o na u al
ecosys ems in o ag icul u al land elsewhe e. To add ess his issue, in ou model de elopmen
we sepa a e “o he na u al land” o “abandoned land” and “na u al land”, and limi “na u al
land” con e sion o plan a ions, a o es a ion o ag icul u al land.
A ci cula bioeconomy can also play a ole in imp o ing he sus ainabili y o o es managemen .
A ci cula bioeconomy is an economic sys em ha combines he p inciples o he ci cula
economy (i.e., was e educ ion, ecycling and euse) wi h he ones o he bioeconomy (i.e., use
o enewable biological esou ces)(Tan & Lame s, 2021). I has he po en ial o educe p essu e
on o es ca bon balance and biodi e si y by educing ha es olumes h ough inc easing
wood-based p oduc s ecycling and euse and cascading use o biomass.
17
The objec i e o WP7 o o es supply chains is o analyze he impac s o he wood-based
bioeconomy on he o es sec o , ca bon seques a ion, and biodi e si y loss. To conduc his
analysis, new ea u es o o es supply chains such as plan a ion o es s, wood-based inal
p oduc s demand, o es managemen , age-class dynamics and ha es ed wood p oduc s (HWP)
ca bon accoun ing, subs i u ion e ec s be ween wood-based p oduc s and ossil uel-based
p oduc s, and plan a ion ca bon up ake ha e been included in he GLOBIOM- o es model.
The ole o plan a ion o es s and ci cula i y in he wood-based bioeconomy, and he associa ed
po en ial bene i s and ade-o s o bo h clima e mi iga ion and biodi e si y, emain la gely
unexplo ed in he li e a u e. As pa o CLEVER WP7 Task 7.3, new scena ios we e designed o
explo e he ole o a ci cula bioeconomy (i.e., inc eased wood ecycling and euse, and
cascading use o woody-biomass) and plan a ion o es s in mee ing inc easing global demand
o cons uc ion ma e ials and bioene gy. D7.3 also includes addi ional scena ios explo ing he
po en ial impac o he EU Biodi e si y S a egy o 2030 and o di e en ypes o land
es o a ion policies in B azil on he o es sec o , o es ca bon balance and biodi e si y.
Aquacul u e and aqua eed supply chains
The demand o aqua ic ood p oduc s is expec ed o inc ease in he coming decades, as esul
o inc easing popula ion and pe capi a incomes (Naylo e al., 2021), as well as e o s o educe
he en i onmen al impac o ood consump ion (Halpe n e al., 2022), and imp o e ood secu i y
(Gepha & Golden, 2022). As ma ine ca ch s agna es and may al eady be beyond sus ainable
po en ials, a la ge sha e o he u u e g ow h in aqua ic ood demand is expec ed o be me by
aquacul u e (FAO, 2018). Ye , abou hal o oday’s o al aquacul u e equi es eed inpu s ha
we e adi ionally composed o ish meal and ish oil aqua eeds. These a e p oduced om he
educ ion o pelagic ish ca ch, and ma gins o inc ease he supply o adi ional aqua eeds may
be limi ed by he ecological impac s o he ish educ ion sec o (F oehlich, Jacobsen, e al.,
2018).
While imp o emen s in aquacul u e eed con e sion e iciencies (Gepha e al., 2021) o he
up ake o no el aqua eeds (Co ell e al., 2020) may con ibu e o alle ia ing such a p essu e,
c op-based aqua eed a e inc easingly being used as an al e na i e o adi ional aqua eeds
(Tacon & Me ian, 2015). Fu u e scena ios abou die a y changes, ood demand and aquacul u e
and aqua eed de elopmen s indica e po en ially impo an land use implica ions. Blue ood
demand and c op aqua eeds a e he e o e conside ed as one o he main in e ac ions be ween
land and sea supply chains (Co ell e al., 2018).
Fo example, (F oehlich, Runge, e al., 2018) es ima ed ha he u u e inc ease in land
equi emen s o c op-based aqua eed o sus ain demand o blue ood p oduc s could be
signi ican , al hough dwa ed by he land equi emen s o c op-based eed o sus ain u u e
demand o li es ock p oduc s. The s udy also es ima ed aquacul u e p oduc ion o be mo e
e icien in c op eed use han li es ock p oduc ion, despi e he expec ed inc eased eliance o
aquacul u e on c op eed. The au ho s ound ha scena ios assuming a subs i u ion o li es ock
p oduc s by aquacul u e p oduc s in u u e ood demand migh dec ease he o e all land use
p essu e om ood demand.
18
Such es ima es, howe e , ely on s a ic ep esen a ions o he ag icul u al sec o , he eby
igno ing po en ial adjus men s in ma ke s and in land use sys ems expec ed in such ype o
scena ios. They also lack a ansla ion o he p ojec ed land use impac s in o biodi e si y
impac s. Explo ing hese ques ions equi es dynamic and in eg a ed modelling o he blue ood
and ag icul u al sec o s, and migh be acili a ed by a be e in eg a ion o blue ood sys ems
in o in eg a ed modelling ools.
As desc ibed in CLEVER deli e able D6.2, he GLOBIOM global land use model has ecen ly been
ex ended o co e key blue ood supply chains, including an endogenous ep esen a ion o
demand, ade and p oduc ion o ish p oduc s (Spillias e al., 2025). Fish p oduc ion co e s
bo h he ca ch om ma ine ishe ies and he supply om aquacul u e p oduc ion sys ems, hese
wo o ms o p oduc ion being connec ed h ough he ish educ ion sec o (i.e., p ocessing
ma ine ca ch in o ish meal and ish oil, used as aquacul u e eed). The aquacul u e sec o is
connec ed o he GLOBIOM c op sec o h ough c op aqua eed, while he demand o blue ood
inal p oduc s is explici ly modelled and scena ios o die a y subs i u ions be ween blue ood
and o he ood p oduc s can be conside ed.
The objec i e o deli e able 7.3 o aquacul u e and aqua eed supply chains is o complemen
he analyses con ained in deli e able 7.2 o po en ial u u e e olu ion o blue ood demand and
supply, al e na i e aquacul u e eeding s a egies, and ela ed impac s on land use and
e es ial biodi e si y. D7.2 elied on new scena ios designed o explo e hese po en ial
in e ac ions, and a quan i a i e assessmen o hese a he global scale wi h he GLOBIOM model
imp o ed in WP6 o he CLEVER p ojec . In his deli e able, we speci ically add wo addi ional
scena ios expanding he spec um o al e na i e u u es explo ed, by conside ing a change in
he blue ood die a y p e e ences o consume s, and a mo e sus ainable managemen o
ishe ies a he global le el (see also CLEVER Deli e able D6.5 o ela ed model de elopmen s).
19
METHODS
Soy supply chains
O e all app oach
Goal: Fo soy supply chains, he main objec i e is o analyze he po en ial e olu ion o soy
ma ke s and o quan i y he po en ial impac o a ious go e nance mechanisms on soy
p oduc ion, ade and associa ed socio-economic and en i onmen al ou comes. In D7.2, we
ocused on analyzing he impac o s ylized in e en ion scena ios cap u ing key sou ces o
unce ain ies o soy ma ke s a ound a business-as-usual u u e (Middle o he Road Sha ed
Socioeconomic Pa hway 2; SSP2). An addi ional se o scena ios, explo ing he impac o speci ic
policies in B azil and EU has been de eloped in D7.3.
Me hod summa y: The scena ios’ design elies on he S o y-and-simula ion app oach (Alcamo,
2001) wi h an i e a i e p ocess be ween expe -led s o yline de elopmen , quan i ica ion wi h
he GLOBIOM model and eedback om s akeholde s. The scena ios we e p ima ily de eloped
h ough a li e a u e e iew, as well as expe eedback on scena io ideas and key assump ions
(including p elimina y quan i ica ion), ga he ed du ing an online wo kshop and h ough w i en
eedback. Fo he new scena ios de eloped in D7.3, econome ics modelling and a li e a u e
e iew ha e been used o es ima e he magni ude o he impac s o he EUDR and EU-Me cosu
on B azil’s soy expo s o he EU and o pa ame ize he new scena ios in GLOBIOM. Mo e de ails
on he me hodology a e p o ided in D6.5.
Li e a u e e iew: As summa ized in he in oduc ion, he li e a u e e iew sugges s ha he
de elopmen o u u e global demand o animal p oduc s and ege able oils, and well as
sys em-wide in e en ions ac oss land use and ood sys ems owa ds global sus ainabili y goals
a e likely o inc easingly shape soy supply chains in he u u e. Recen ade ensions and a i
escala ion be ween he Uni ed S a es and China a e also expec ed o a ec soy ade and
en i onmen al ou comes in he coming decades. Finally, new EU ade- ela ed policies (e.g.,
EUDR, EU-Me cosu ), as well domes ic policies (e.g., Fo es Code) and p i a e sec o ini ia i es
(e.g., ASM) in B azil as well as B azilian s akeholde s’ esponse o EU policies, a e expec ed o
impac B azil-EU soy ade and associa ed biodi e si y impac s in he nex decades.
Insigh s om he s akeholde wo kshop: A wo-hou online wo kshop ook place on 14 May
2025. I ga he ed 23 soy and ag icul u e expe s, om he p i a e sec o , public sec o ,
in e na ional o ganiza ions and NGOs om bo h B azil and Eu ope. The wo kshop included: 1)
a 20 min p esen a ion om IIASA on model imp o emen s, po en ial scena io op ions and
p elimina y esul s, ollowed by a Q&A; 2) a i s 20 min b eakou session whe e expe s we e
asked o sha e hei ision o he soy sec o by 2050 and a epo ing back in plena y; 3) a second
20 min b eakou session whe e expe s we e asked o iden i y hei p e e ed scena io op ions
and discuss he likely impac o he selec ed policies/s ylized in e en ions on soy expo s and
biodi e si y, ollowed by a epo ing back in plena y. Expe s men ioned popula ion dynamics,
he e olu ion in China’s soy demand, die a y shi s away om mea owa ds plan -based
p oduc s, de o es a ion egula ions and he Uni ed S a es-China ade dispu e as main ac o s
20
likely o impac he soy sec o in he coming decades. Se e al o hese elemen s a e conside ed
in he s ylized scena ios de eloped in D7.2. S akeholde s also sha ed eedback on scena ios
conside ing speci ic policy in e en ions in B azil and EU, indi idually and in a ious
combina ions (e.g., ASM, Fo es Code, EUDR, and EU-Me cosu ) ha ha e been used o in o m
D7.3. Expe s i s sha ed hei in e es in ha ing a scena io looking a he impac o he EUDR
on i s own gi en ha i is a new ype o policy o which he e is high unce ain y abou po en ial
e ec , including in e ac ions wi h he EU-MERCOSUR RTA. They also men ioned he impo ance
o he econome ic es ima e o he ade cos s/ a i equi alen o he EUDR as i will d i e he
model esul s and sugges ed ha i could be complemen ed wi h es ima es om he li e a u e
(which has been aken in o accoun - see D6.5 o mo e de ails). S akeholde s also highligh ed
he impo ance o looking a he impac s o bo h a weakening (including a emo al o he ASM
which is cu en ly unde h ea ) and a s eng hening o B azil’s land and o es conse a ion
policies as po en ial al e na i e esponses om B azilian ac o s o EU policies.
As a ollow up om he online wo kshop, deli e able D7.2 and a d a o deli e able D7.3 we e
sen o soy s akeholde s by email, wi h a eques o w i en eedback. Feedback ecei ed
included sugges ion o add a discussion on indi ec soy-d i en de o es a ion (i.e., pas u e is
con e ed o soy, and o es o pas u e), as well as cla i ica ion ha he EU policy scena ios
(EUDR and EUM+EUDR) only a ge soy ade be ween he EU and B azil and he e o e do no
cap u e he whole impac s on hese policies.
Scena io desc ip ion
Based on insigh s om he li e a u e and he s akeholde wo kshop, we explo e he socio-
economic and en i onmen al impac s o a SSP2 scena io and nine in e en ion scena ios. The
i s h ee in e en ion scena ios a e s ylized scena ios ha ha e been de eloped in he con ex
o D7.2 and aim o cap u e key sou ces o unce ain ies o soy ma ke s. The nex six scena ios
a e new scena ios de eloped o D7.3. These mainly aim o explo e he impac s o new EU ade-
ela ed policies (i.e., EUDR and EU-Me cosu ) as well as o cap u e he po en ial eac ion o
public and p i a e s akeholde s in B azil o hese new policies (i.e., ei he ein o cing o weaking
hei land conse a ion e o s). The las wo scena ios aim o p o ide insigh s in o he impac
o al e na i e policy op ions in he EU, namely he implemen a ion o an EU biodi e si y bo de
adjus men mechanism and inc easing demand-side sus ainabili y e o s (as compa ed o
egula o y app oach such as he EUDR). The main assump ions behind each scena io a e
summa ized in Table 1 while a mo e de ailed desc ip ion o he new scena ios is p o ided below
(See D7.2 o a de ailed desc ip ion o he emaining scena ios).
Table 1 - Summa y o assump ions o soy supply chain scena ios
Scena io name
Assump ions
Ques ions explo ed
Middle o he Road
Sha ed Socioeconomic
Pa hway SSP2
(included in D7.2)
P olonga ion o his o ical
ends (no policy change)
Wha does a SSP2 u u e mean o
soy ma ke s and biodi e si y?
In eg a ed Ac ion
Po olio IAP scena io
om he Bending he
Conse a ion and es o a ion,
supply and demand-side e o s
aligned wi h he KMGBF goal o
Wha does eaching ambi ious
biodi e si y goals mean o soy
ma ke s?
21
cu e s udy (included
in D7.2)
e e sing global biodi e si y
loss om land use change by
2050
T .Dis (included in
D7.2)
China’s impo s o US soy-based
p oduc s capped a 75% o
2020 alue
Wha could be he long- e m
consequences o he US-China
ade dispu e on soy ma ke s and
biodi e si y?
ZNLB a (included in
D7.2)
Ze o absolu e con e sion o
o es and o he na u al lands
o ag icul u al land use in B azil
a e 2020
Wha s ong land conse a ion in
B azil means o soy p oduc ion
and ade?
EUDR (new scena io)
A e 2020, 3% decline in B azil
expo s o soy-based p oduc s
o he EU compa ed o SSP2,
ollowing he implemen a ion
o he EUDR
Wha a e he po en ial impac s o
new EU policies on soy ade and
biodi e si y?
EUM+EUDR (new
scena io)
A e 2020, 15% inc ease in
B azil expo s o soy-based
p oduc s o he EU compa ed o
SSP2, ollowing he
implemen a ion o bo h he
EUDR and he EUM
EUM+EUDR_ZNLB a
(new scena io)
EUM+EUDR scena io + ZNLB a
scena io (i.e., ze o absolu e
con e sion o o es and o he
na u al lands o ag icul u al
land use in B azil a e 2020)
i.e., implemen a ion o EU
policies, and assumed
subsequen s eng hening o
conse a ion policies in B azil
Wha a e he impac s o EU
policies, i hey lead o inc eased
conse a ion e o s in B azil?
EUM+EUDR_WeakLUR
(new scena io)
EUM+EUDR scena io combined
wi h a emo al o he ASM and
a weakening o he illegal
de o es a ion con ol in he
Ce ado and Amazon biomes
Wha a e he impac s o EU
policies, i hey lead o declining
conse a ion e o s in B azil?
EUM+EUBBAM (new
scena io)
On op o EU-MERCOSUR, a
biodi e si y bo de adjus men
mechanism o impo s o he
EU, o high- isk commodi ies
(including soy-based p oduc s)
is implemen ed as a subs i u e
o he EUDR. The biodi e si y
bo de adjus men mechanism
is modeled as a ax on impo s
olumes, wi h a ax le el and
Wha could be he impac o
eplacing he EUDR by a
biodi e si y- ocused and p ice-
based in e en ion o educe
biodi e si y impac s impo ed o
he EU?
22
p opo ional o he di e ence
in land occupa ion- ela ed
biodi e si y impac s pe on o
p oduc , be ween impo ed
and domes ically p oduced.
EUM+EUDemSide
On op o EU-MERCOSUR, he
EUDR is eplaced by demand-
side e o s in he EU. The
e o s a e simila o ha
pic u ed in he IAP scena io
( educed was e and die a y
shi om animal o plan -
based p oduc s), bu es ic ed
o he EU.
Wha could be he impac o
eplacing he EUDR by demand-
side in e en ions o educe
o e all en i onmen al impac s
om consump ion in he EU?
As illus a ed in Table 1, in addi ion o he SSP2, i e new scena ios a e conside ed, namely:
• EU De o es a ion Regula ion (EUDR) scena io: his scena io assumes ha , as a esul o
he EUDR implemen a ion, B azil’s expo s o soy-based p oduc s (i.e., soybean, soy oil
and soy p o ein meal) o he EU decline by 3% compa ed o wha is p ojec ed in he
SSP2 baseline scena io. The e ec o he EUDR on B azil-EU soy ade assumes ull
compliance is eached (i.e., impo s a e sou ced om land no de o es ed a e 2020),
wi h compliance cos s leading a sligh educ ion in ade olumes, es ima ed h ough
econome ics modelling and a li e a u e e iew (see D6.5). This educ ion in soy ade
be ween B azil and EU is implemen ed as a ax on EU impo s o B azil’s soy-based
p oduc s om 2020 onwa ds, equi alen o 3% o he EU p ice in 2020. The unde lying
assump ion is ha a su icien sha e o soy p oduc ion in B azil can comply wi h he
EUDR equi emen s
2
a a mode a e compliance cos . This scena io enables us o isola e
he impac o he EUDR on B azil’s soy expo s o he EU.
• EU De o es a ion Regula ion + EU-Me cosu RTA (EUDR+EUM) scena io: his scena io
aims o p o ide insigh s in o he cumula i e e ec o he EUDR and he ecen ly ag eed
(bu no ye a i ied) RTA be ween he EU and Me cosu S a es on B azil-EU soy ade.
While he EUDR es ic s ma ke access o soy and o he commodi ies in o he EU
ma ke , he EU-Me cosu RTA is expec ed o inc ease i hough enhanced ade
in eg a ion (mainly h ough indi ec e ec s, as he a i le el is al eady low). Based on
a combina ion o li e a u e e iew and econome ic modeling (see D6.5), we es ima e
plausible ha i) he magni ude o he esul ing inc ease in ade migh be in he o de
o +20% (wi h la ge unce ain y), and ii) i migh sligh ly exace ba e he nega i e impac
o he EUDR on B azil’s soy expo s o he EU (i.e., wi h educ ion a ound -5% compa ed
o -3% assumed in he EUDR scena io). Taken oge he , he wo EU policies a e
2
The EUDR s ipula es ha commodi ies in scope placed on he EU ma ke , o expo ed om he EU, should be
p oduced on land ha was no subjec o de o es a ion (a e 31 Decembe 2020) and in acco dance wi h he laws
applicable in he coun y o p oduc ion.
23
es ima ed o lead, a e 2020, o a 15% inc ease in B azil’s expo s o soy-based p oduc s
o he EU compa ed o he baseline. This is implemen ed as a subsidy on EU impo s o
B azil’s soy-based p oduc s om 2020 onwa ds, equi alen o 17% o he EU p ice in
2020. Simila ly o he EUDR scena io, we assume ha a su icien sha e o B azil soy
p oduc ion can comply wi h he EUDR equi emen s. This scena io enables us o cap u e
he in e ac ions be ween di e en EU ade- ela ed policies and hei combined e ec s
on soy ade and biodi e si y.
• EU De o es a ion Regula ion + EU-Me cosu RTA + Ze o na u al land loss in B azil
(EUDR+EUM_ZNLB a) scena io: his scena io explo es he po en ial impac s o new EU
ade- ela ed policies (i.e., EU-Me cosu and EUDR) on B azil-EU soy ade and
associa ed biodi e si y impac s, unde he assump ion ha hey would os e inc eased
land conse a ion e o s in B azil. This is done by simul aneously implemen ing he
EUDR+EUM scena io and he ZNLB a scena io (de eloped in D7.2), which assumes ze o
absolu e con e sion om o es and non- o es na u al land o ag icul u al land in B azil
a e 2020 (see D7.2). This scena io assumes ha in e na ional supply chains and he
B azilian socie y eac o he new EU policies by ambi ious supply chain aceabili y and
land conse a ion e o s (well beyond ha o cu en policies, o e en pu sued by he
EUDR) in B azil. This ep esen s he mani es a ion in B azil o a maximalis e sion o a
‘B ussels e ec ’, by which EU ac ions lead o he adop ion o new, ambi ious s anda ds.
• EU De o es a ion Regula ion + EU-Me cosu RTA + Weak Land Use Regula ion
(EUM+EUDR_WeakLUR) scena io: his scena io explo es he po en ial impac o an
opposi e assump ion o he EUDR+EUM_ZNLB a scena io, in which he new EU ade-
ela ed policies (i.e., EU-Me cosu and EUDR) a e assumed o lead o a dec ease in
supply chain and land conse a ion e o s in B azil. This is done by simul aneously
implemen ing he EUDR+EUM scena io and a weakening o key policies included in he
SSP2 and all o he scena ios (see de ails o Fo es Code ep esen a ion in D6.5). This
includes om 2030 onwa ds a emo al o he Amazon Soy Mo a o ium and a weakening
o he Fo es Code. F om 2030 onwa ds, an inc ease in land a ea dedica ed o soy
p oduc ion is allowed in he Amazone biome, and he en o cemen p obabili ies o
illegal de o es a ion con ol as pa o he Fo es Code a e educed by a ac o o 3 in
bo h he Amazonia and Ce ado biomes. Howe e , as in all EUDR-based scena ios, i is
assumed ha a su icien sha e o B azil’s soy p oduc ion can comply wi h he EUDR
equi emen s, and ha any soy p oduced om newly de o es ed land in B azil is
des ined o o he ma ke s. This scena io p o ides insigh s in o he implica ions o a
weakening o public and p i a e land conse a ion e o s in B azil as a po en ial ad e se
consequence o unila e al in e en ions om he EU, like he EUDR.
• EU-Me cosu RTA + EU biodi e si y bo de adjus men mechanism (EUM+EUBBAM)
scena io: his scena io explo es he impac s o subs i u ing he EUDR by a biodi e si y
bo de adjus men mechanism applied o selec ed high- isk commodi ies. This is done
by implemen ing, om 2020 onwa ds, a ax on he olume o EU impo s o selec ed
24
commodi ies (soya bean, soya oil, soya cake, palm oil, bee ). The le el o he ax is
p opo ional o he di e ence be ween he expo ing egion and he EU in he ma ginal
land occupa ion- ela ed biodi e si y impac
3
embedded in he supply o a commodi y
(including local di ec impac bu also emo e indi ec impac , o example h ough
impac s om he p oduc ion in ano he o eed impo ed o p oduce li es ock
4
), and
inc eases o e ime o each by 2050 a alue based on a medium- ange es ima e o he
global economic alue o na u e (Cos anza e al., 2014)
5
. Fo soya beans expo ed om
B azil o EU, his implies ax alues o abou 2, 113 and 221 USD2000 pe by 2030, 2040
and 2050, espec i ely. This scena io p o ides insigh s in o he implica ions o EU
mobilizing an al e na i e ins umen o he EUDR o educing he oo p in o i s
impo s, based on a biodi e si y- ocused p ice-based app oach.
• EU-Me cosu RTA + EU demand-side measu es (EUM+EUDemSide) scena io: his
scena io explo es he impac s o subs i u ing he EUDR by demand-side sus ainabili y
e o s simila o hose assumed applied globally in he IAP scena io (was e educ ion,
shi om animal-based o plan -based p oduc s). This is done by implemen ing in he
EU27 a p og essi e ansi ion om 2030 onwa ds, o eaching by 2050 a 50% educ ion
in ood was e and a subs i u ion o 50% o he demand in animal-based p oduc s (mea
and dai y) by plan -based p oduc s. This scena io p o ides insigh s in o he implica ions
o EU ocusing on demand-side e o s as an al e na i e ins umen o he EUDR o
educing he oo p in o i s impo s.
P elimina y e sions o hese scena ios we e discussed du ing he s akeholde wo kshop and
me wi h in e es , as hey we e conside ed o well cap u e he key sou ces o unce ain ies o
he u u e e olu ion o soy ma ke s as well as he main EU and B azil policies wi h implica ions
o soy ade and biodi e si y. Indeed, soy expe s conside ed he u u e e olu ion in China’s soy
demand, die a y shi s away om mea owa ds plan -based p oduc s, de o es a ion egula ions
and he Uni ed S a es-China ade dispu e as key ac o s likely o impac he soy sec o in he
coming decades. Se e al o hese elemen s ha e been cap u ed in scena ios de eloped o D7.2.
Mo eo e , hey conside ed ha key policies in bo h EU and B azil wi h po en ial e ec s on soy
ma ke s ha e been iden i ied and p o ided eedback on ele an combina ions be ween
3
Land occupa ion impac s compa e he biodi e si y impac o cu en land use o an undis u bed na u al land
baseline a he same loca ion, and can be in e p e ed as he oppo uni y cos o biodi e si y o keeping ha land in
use, as compa ed o es o ing i .
4
See Deli e able 6.5 o a desc ip ion o he unde lying oo p in ing module.
5
Re lec ing an ins umen al human-na u e ela ionship pe spec i e, we se a long- e m a ge o he ax alue ha
e lec s a medium es ima e o he mone a y alue o na u e, and assume ha his long- e m ax alue is only ully
eached by 2050 (5% and 50% o his long- e m ax alue apply by 2030 and 2040). Fo he long- e m a ge , we
choose a alue o 125 illion USD2000 pe yea o a po en ially disappea ed ac ion o 1 (i.e, all e es ial
biodi e si y los ), based on (Cos anza e al., 2014). This is below he 179 illion USD2025 es ima e o he alue o all
ecosys em se ices p o ided by na u e (Bos on Consul ing G oup, (Oğuz, 2025)), and abo e he Wo ld Economic
Fo um es ima e o 44 illion USD/yea o he annual economic alue gene a ion o sec o s mode a ely o highly
dependen on na u e and i s se ices (Wo ld Economic Fo um, 2020).
25
di e en policies and s ylized in e en ions as well as on hei likely impac on soy ade and
biodi e si y. This eedback has been used o in o m he de elopmen o new scena ios o D7.3.
As pa o an e o o imp o e he ep esen a ion o land use dynamics in B azil, key policy and
p i a e sec o in e en ions including he Fo es Code and he Amazon Soy Mo a o ium we e
pa ame e ized in he model. As u he de ailed in D6.5, he pa ame e iza ion o he Fo es Code
assumes es ic ions on illegal de o es a ion in he Amazonia and Ce ado biomes om 2020
onwa ds, adjus ed by en o cemen p obabili ies, oge he wi h es o a ion e o s in all biomes
om 2030 onwa ds modelled as a con e sion o c opland and pas u e in o p o ec ed o es . Fo
he Amazon Soy Mo a o ium no expansion in he land a ea dedica ed o soy in he Amazon
biome is assumed. These ea u es apply bo h o he SSP2 scena io and he in e en ion scena ios
(excep o he EUM+EUDR_WeakLUR scena io whe e he ASM is emo ed om 2020 onwa ds
and he en o cemen p obabili ies o illegal de o es a ion con ol unde he Fo es Code a e
educed).
Quan i ica ion
The GLOBIOM economic model is used o gene a e p ojec ions o ma ke de elopmen
indica o s and en i onmen al and socio-economic indica o s om he ini ial yea (2000) un il
2050 (wi h a 10-yea ime s ep) o he baseline and he explo a i e scena ios. Resul s om 2020
onwa ds o main global egions, and a subna ional scale o B azil, a e analyzed in he esul s
sec ion o his deli e able.
Ou comes unde he baseline and he s ylized policy scena ios a e analyzed o di e en
indica o s o ood consump ion, p oduc ion and ade and se e al en i onmen al indica o s
including land use, wa e use, GHG emissions and biodi e si y loss. Biodi e si y loss indica o s
a e based on li e cycle assessmen (LCA) me hods and ha e been de eloped in he con ex o
D6.3. These indica o s ha e been linked o he GLOBIOM model, and hei alue has al eady
been p ojec ed o a SSP2 scena io in D6.4. The analysis o he SSP2 and he policy scena ios is
ca ied ou a he global and egional le els ( o i e agg ega ed egions and he EU)
6
as well as
a he coun y and biome le el o B azil.
Fo soy in B azil, in addi ion o he biodi e si y impac o a ming quan i ied wi h GLOBIOM, he
model was expanded o also include ups eam and downs eam supply chain impac s based on
he esul s o LCA (see D6.4). These include biodi e si y impac s associa ed wi h inpu
p oduc ion (e.g., e ilize ), soy p ocessing and soy anspo a ion, bo h domes ically and
ab oad. This enables o ge a mo e comple e pic u e o he ull ange o impac associa ed wi h
soy supply chains in B azil.
6
The i e agg ega ed egions conside ed a e No he n Ame ica (NAM), O he Sou h Ame ica (OSA) (excl B azil),
A ica and Middle Eas (AME), Sou h Asia (SAS – including China), and he Res o he Wo ld (ROW).
32
pe iodic es o a ion and de o es a ion a ea cons ain s o he pe iods 2030-2100.
Pe iodic a eas a e based on he G4M model RPC1p9 a o es a ion and de o es a ion
a eas. Plan a ion o es a ea can expand eely in B azil and is ixed a 2020 le el in he
es o he wo ld. Bioene gy demand is ixed a 2020 le el, demand o cons uc ion
ma e ials is d i en by popula ion and GDP g ow h om he SSP2 scena io.
Quan i ica ion
The scena ios a e quan i ied wi h a e ined e sion o he GLOBIOM economic model ha
includes an enhance ep esen a ion o he o es sec o and is used o gene a e p ojec ions o
ele an ou comes un il 2100 unde he di e en scena ios. Mo e de ails on he modelling
amewo k can be ound in he CLEVER Deli e ables D6.2 and D6.5.
Ou comes p ojec ed unde he a ious scena ios a e analyzed o di e en indica o s ela ed o
o es managemen a ea, oundwood ha es olume, ne ade in wood-based p oduc s, o es
ca bon balance and biodi e si y loss, based on indica o s p esen ed in D6.2.
The analysis o p ojec ed ou comes is ca ied ou a he le el o 7 wo ld egions, and includes
ou comes p ojec ed o indi idual scena ios, as well as di e ences o a business usual scena io
(BASE).
33
Aquacul u e and aqua eed supply chains
O e all app oach
Goal: Fo aquacul u e and aqua eed supply chains, he main goal is o quan i y po en ial
de elopmen s in he demand o blue ood p oduc s, aquacul u e blue ood p oduc ion, ish-
based s c op-based aqua eed equi emen s, and ela ed isks o he en i onmen . In D7.2, we
p esen ed and assessed explo a i e scena ios pic u ing plausible u u e de elopmen s a ound a
business-as-usual u u e (‘Middle o he Road’ Sha e Socioeconomic Pa hway SSP2). In his
deli e able, we expand he analysis o include wo addi ional scena ios, explo ing in e en ions
ela ed o addi ional ac o s i.e., consume s ( ia al e na i e die a y p e e ences) and ishe ies
( ia a ansi ion o mo e sus ainable ishe ies managemen ).
Me hods summa y: To design and quan i y he scena ios, we ely on he S o y-and-simula ion
app oach (Alcamo, 2001) wi h an i e a i e p ocess be ween expe -led s o yline de elopmen ,
quan i ica ion wi h he GLOBIOM model and eedback om s akeholde s. The scena ios we e
p ima ily de eloped h ough li e a u e e iew, as well as eedback om s akeholde s on
scena io ideas and key assump ions (including p elimina y quan i ica ion), ga he ed du ing an
online wo kshop.
Insigh s om he li e a u e e iew: As summa ized in he in oduc ion, he li e a u e e iew
highligh ed u u e popula ion and die a y p e e ences as key aspec s leading o u u e demand
g ow h, a s agna ion o mode a e inc ease in wild ca ch le els depending on he ex en o which
ishe ies managemen limi s o e ishing, and he g owing ole o aquacul u e o sus ain ecen
and u u e inc eases in blue ood consump ion. I also highligh ed e iciency gains and a
subs i u ion o adi ional ish-based aqua eed ( ish meal and ish oil) by c op-based aqua eeds
as key ecen ends media ing he demand o a ious aqua eed p oduc s.
Insigh s om he s akeholde wo kshop: A 90-minu e online wo kshop was conduc ed on
Decembe 4 h 2024, in ol ing 16 s akeholde s om NGOs, uni e si ies, and he p i a e sec o ,
p edominan ly om Eu ope bu wi h pa icipan s om No he n and La in Ame ica. The
wo kshop included an in oduc ion session on he scope o he wo k, a session dedica ed o
ga he ing s akeholde iews on hei ision o he sec o by 2050, and a session dedica ed o
collec ing eedback on he main scena io dimensions, ela ed assump ions and quan i ied
ou comes. Mo e de ails on he wo kshop o ganiza ion can be ound in appendix o D7.2. The
s akeholde s ound he ini ial scena io scope ele an bu also exp essed in e es in al e na i e
sus ainable demand (e.g., owa ds lowe ophic species and bi al es) and supply (e.g., no el
eeds, in eg a ed and ci cula sys ems) scena ios, which we e pa ially add essed in D7.2, and
u he add essed in D7.3. They also poin ed o he need o a y some o he baseline
assump ions (e.g., g ow h in non- ed aquacul u e, maximum subs i u ion po en ial o ish oil),
which was inco po a ed in he design o scena ios in D7.2 and D7.3. They iden i ied some
addi ional ma ke s (e.g., seaweed) and sec o al d i e s (e.g., legisla ion o egula e aquacul u e
de elopmen , geopoli ics and ade dis up ion, land compe i ion) ha could be impo an o
34
cap u e. Doing so would, howe e , go beyond he scope o wha can be modelled wi hin CLEVER.
In e ms o ou comes quan i ied, s akeholde s exp essed in e es in GHG emissions impac s
om a ious blue ood sou cing s a egies, and in social and economic ou comes ela ed o
p oduc ion (e.g., e enue, human igh s), consump ion (e.g., ood secu i y) and nu ien cycle
(e.g., nu ien losses om c op aqua eed p oduc ion). Excep o nu ien losses om c op
aqua eed (aquacul u e on- a m losses a e al eady epo ed upon, bu no ag icul u e on- a m
losses), he model de elopmen s equi ed o quan i y hese aspec s a e beyond he scope o
CLEVER.
Scena io desc ip ion
Based on insigh s om he li e a u e e iew and he s akeholde wo kshop, we ocused on
explo ing he biodi e si y impac s om c op aqua eed unde a business-as-usual (SSP2) u u e,
oge he wi h he impac o key unde lying assump ions. As illus a ed in Table 5, his led o he
c ea ion o eigh scena ios (including 2 new scena ios ha ha e been de eloped in D7.3, and 6
scena ios ha we e de eloped in D7.2). These scena ios di e along ou main dimensions: i)
u u e ends in he demand o blue ood p oduc s, ii) he con ibu ion o wild ca ch o blue
ood p oduc ion g ow h, iii) he con ibu ion o non- ed aquacul u e o u u e blue ood
p oduc ion g ow h, and i ) changes o he aqua eed equi emen s om ed aquacul u e
(including eed con e sion e iciency, subs i u ions be ween ish-based and c op-based
aqua eeds, and possible subs i u ions be ween aqua eed c ops). Mo e de ails abou he
assump ions behind each o he scena ios a e p o ided below.
Table 5 - Summa y o assump ions o aquacul u e and aqua eed scena ios
Scena io name
Scena io
a ionale
Demand
assump ions
Wild ca ch
assump ion
Non- ed
aquacul u e
assump ions
Aqua eed
equi emen
assump ions
SSP2 (included in
D7.2)
Baseline
scena io,
p olonga ion o
ecen his o ical
ends o 2050
SSP2 ends
beyond 2020
2020 le els
SSP2 ends
beyond
2020
SSP2 ends
beyond
2020
BFS20 (included in
D7.2)
Coun e ac ual
scena io, blue
ood sec o
cons an o
2020
2020 le els
2020 le els
2020 le els
2020 le els
AF20 (included in
D7.2)
Sensi i i y
analysis, SSP2
ends beyond
2020 excep o
aqua eed
equi emen s
SSP2 ends
2020 le els
SSP2 ends
2020 le els
o bo h
eed
con e sion
e iciency
and sha e
a ious
inpu
p oduc s
35
AFCOMPO20
(included in D7.2)
Sensi i i y
analysis, SSP2
ends beyond
2020 excep o
subs i u ion
be ween ish-
based and c op-
based
aqua eeds
SSP2 ends
2020 le els
SSP2 ends
SSP2 ends
o ish
con e sion
e iciency,
bu cons an
le el o he
ela i e
sha es o
ish- and
c op-based
aqua eeds in
o al
aqua eed
inpu
AFCOMPOCROPMIX
(included in D7.2)
Sensi i i y
analysis, SSP2
ends beyond
2020 excep o
he sha e o
c op
composi ion o
c op-based
aqua eeds
SSP2 ends
2020 le els
SSP2 ends
SSP2 ends
o ish
con e sion
e iciency
and ish-
based
aqua eed,
bu pa ial
eplacemen
o soy and
co n by
whea in
c ops c op-
based
aqua eed
inpu o
eshwa e
p oduc s
UNFEDAC20
(included in D7.2)
Sensi i i y
analysis, SSP2
ends beyond
2020 excep o
non- ed
aquacul u e
SSP2 ends
2020 le els
2020 le els
SSP2 ends
SUSFISH (new
scena io)
Sensi i i y
analysis, SSP2
ends beyond
2020 excep o
wild ca ch,
which
mode a ely
inc ease as a
esul o a
global up ake o
sus ainable
ishe ies
managemen
SSP2 ends
2020 le els +
15% globally,
assuming
e ec i e
ishe ies
managemen
a Maximum
Sus ainable
Yield (MSY)
SSP2 ends
SSP2 ends
36
BFDIET (new
scena io)
Sensi i i y
analysis, SSP2
ends beyond
2020 excep o
blue ood
p oduc s
die a y
pa e ns, o
which a pa ial
subs i u ion o
eshwa e
species-based
p oduc s by
mollusks-based
p oduc s is
assumed by
2050
SSP2 ends
+
subs i u ion
o 20% o
eshwa e
species-
based ood
p oduc s by
mollusks-
based
p oduc s by
2050 in
egions i
high
consump ion
o
eshwa e
species
based
p oduc s
(EAS, SEA,
SAS)
2020 le els
SSP2 ends
SSP2 ends
Baseline scena io (SSP2)
This baseline scena io elies on a p olonga ion o his o ical ends o a ious componen s o
blue ood supply chains. While a mo e de ailed desc ip ion can be ound in CLEVER deli e able
D6.2, he main assump ions a e summa ised below:
• Demand ends: we assume u u e demand ends o ollow i) egional scale u u e
popula ion ends om he sha ed socioeconomic pa hway (SSP) 2, and ii) egional scale
u u e ends in die a y p e e ences om he SSP2 scena io. The la e e lec s SSP2
p ojec ions o economic weal h (measu ed in GDP pe capi a) combined wi h a
ela ionship be ween GDP pe capi a and he demand o indi idual blue ood p oduc s
es ima ed o e he his o ical pe iod.
• Capaci y o a ious blue ood supply sou ces: o e lec ecen his o ical ends, we
assume ha a e 2020 he u u e g ow h in blue ood demand is supplied by bo h
un ed and ed aquacul u e, while he le els o wild ca ches emain a 2020 le els. Fo
un ed aquacul u e, he egional capaci y canno exceed a p ojec ed egional capaci y,
which is es ima ed om his o ical ends and p ojec ed in o he u u e ( his was
in oduced a e he s akeholde wo kshop, see D6.5 o model imp o emen s o
aquacul u e supply chains). Fo ed aquacul u e, capaci y is no cons ained bu he
con ibu ion o indi idual egions o global ed aquacul u e supply (i.e., egional ma ke
sha es) mus emain wi hin 20% o 2020 le els.
• Technological p og ess in he blue ood sec o : we assume bo h a mode a e inc ease in
he sha e o ish p ocessing was e in ish meal and ish oil p oduc ion ( om abou 50%
in 2020 o up o 60% by 2050), and a p olonga ion o ecen ends in aqua eed
37
equi emen s. The la e assume i) u he dec eases in he economic eed con e sion
a io ( om 1.3-1.8 in 2020 o 1.1-1.4 in 2050, esul ing in less aqua eed equi emen
pe uni o aquacul u e ou pu ), and ii) u he educ ions in he sha e o ish meal and
ish oil in aqua eed ( om 0.02-0.14 in 2020 o 0.00-0.01 in 2050, esul ing in a highe
sha e o c op-based aqua eed in o al aqua eed equi emen s). The sha e o a ious
c ops in o al c op-based aqua eed equi emen s di e s ac oss egions bu is assumed
o emain cons an un il 2050.
Coun e ac ual scena io (BFS20)
This scena io p o ides a coun e ac ual, designed o di e en ia e he land use and biodi e si y
impac s om he blue ood sec o de elopmen om ha o o he sec o s co e ed in he model
(i.e., ag icul u e, o es y, bioene gy). In his hypo he ical scena io, all componen s o he blue
ood sec o (demand, supply, p ocessing, ade) emain ixed a 2020 le els, while he o he
sec o s ollow SSP2 p ojec ions (wi hou clima e mi iga ion e o , i.e., low bioene gy demand).
Sensi i i y scena io (AF20, AFCOMPO20, AFCOMPOCROPMIX, UNFEDAC20, SUSFISH, BFDIET)
These ou scena ios a e designed o isola e he impac o speci ic assump ions om he
baseline scena io, bu wi h a ia ion in he assumed pos -2020 ends in ela ed pa ame e s:
• AF20: dec eases in o al aqua eed equi emen s pe uni o ish p oduc p ojec ed in he
SSP2 scena io a e 2020 a e dis ega ded (i.e., economic eed con e sion a io in each
ed aquacul u e p oduc ion sys em emains cons an a 2020 le els), as well as SSP2-
p ojec ed pos -2020 u he subs i u ions be ween c op-based and ish-based aqua eed
(i.e., he sha e o indi idual c ops in o al aqua eed equi emen s emains cons an a
2020 le els o each ed aquacul u e p oduc ion sys em). This scena io isola es he ole
o u u e echnological change in ed aquacul u e, and eme ged om ini ial model
de elopmen s (see CLEVER Deli e able D6.2).
• AFCOMPO20: simila o he AF20 scena io, excep ha dec eases in o al aqua eed
equi emen s pe uni o ish p oduc p ojec ed in he SSP2 scena io a e 2020 a e
included (i.e., he sha e o indi idual c ops in o al aqua eed equi emen s emains
cons an a 2020 le els, bu he amoun o eed equi emen s pe uni o ou pu
dec eases). This scena io eme ged om he s akeholde wo kshop and complemen s
he AF20 scena io by isola ing, wi hin u u e echnological ends in ed aquacul u e, he
speci ic ole o addi ional subs i u ion be ween ish-based and c op-based aqua eeds.
• AFCOMPOCROPMIX: simila o he SSP2 scena io, excep ha 50% o he c ude p o ein
con en om co n and soya eed equi emen s pe uni o aquacul u e ou pu o ed
aquacul u e in China a e eplaced by a simila c ude p o ein con en om whea . This
scena io explo es he impac o assuming ha aqua eed om c ops commonly g own in
biodi e si y- ich opical a eas is eplaced by domes ically p oduced empe a e c ops in
he la ges ed aquacul u e p oducing egion. This scena io eme ged om he discussion
o ini ial model de elopmen s (see CLEVER Deli e able D6.2, and Deli e able D6.5 o
pa ame e iza ion).
38
• UNFEDAC20: simila o he SSP2 scena io, excep ha he supply o un ed aquacul u e
a egional le el canno exceed 2020 le els. This scena io eme ged om he s akeholde
wo kshop discussions.
• SUSFISH: simila o SSP2 scena io, excep ha he supply o wild ca ch is inc eased
globally by 15% as a esul o an assumed global up ake o e ec i e sus ainable ishe ies
managemen aiming a a oiding o e ishing. Unde lying pa ame e iza ion is based on
es ima es om (Elleby e al., 2025), ha elied on ish s ock modeling (see Deli e able
D6.5 o de ails).
• BFDIET: simila o SSP2 scena io, excep ha a pa ial subs i u ion be ween blue ood
p oduc s is assumed a e 2020. Fo he h ee egions wi h he highes le el o
consump ion o eshwa e ish by 2050 (EAS – excep o Japan and Sou h Ko ea, whe e
eshwa e ish consump ion is compa a i ely lowe – SAS and SEA), we assume ha
20% o he ood consump ion le el o eshwa e species-based p oduc s p ojec ed by
2050 is eplaced by mollusks-based p oduc s. This es s on he assump ion ha
consume s swi ch o p oduc s ha sco e high in nu i ional quali y and low in
en i onmen al impac s (based on (Gepha & Golden, 2022)). This ep esen s mo e han
a doubling o mollusks species-based p oduc s globally, and he subs i u ion occu s
g adually a e 2020 (see also deli e able D6.5).
Quan i ica ion
The scena ios a e quan i ied wi h a e sion o he GLOBIOM economic model ha includes a ish
module, and is used o gene a e p ojec ions o ele an ou comes un il 2050 o he di e en
scena ios. Mo e de ails on he modelling amewo k, he baseline scena io pa ame e iza ion
and illus a i e model ou pu s can be ound in he CLEVER Deli e able D6.2, and addi ional
model imp o emen s can be ound in CLEVER Deli e able D6.5.
Ou comes p ojec ed unde he a ious scena ios a e analyzed o di e en indica o s ela ed o
he demand and supply o a ious blue ood p oduc s, aqua eed equi emen s, land use changes
and biodi e si y impac s om land use, wa e use, GHG emissions and biodi e si y loss.
Biodi e si y loss indica o s a e based on li e cycle assessmen (LCA) me hods and ha e been
de eloped in he con ex o D6.3. The analysis o p ojec ed ou comes is ca ied ou a he le el
o 10 wo ld egions
8
, and includes ou comes p ojec ed o indi idual scena ios, as well as
di e ences o he coun e ac ual scena io.
8
The en wo ld egions conside ed No he n Ame ica (NAM), La in Ame ica and Ca ibbean (LAC), Sub-Saha an
A ica (SSA), Middle Eas and No he n A ica (MEN), Eu ope (EUR), Fo me So ie Union (FSU), Eas e n Asia (EAS,
including China),
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Soy supply chains
Resul s
Resul s a he global and egional le els
Food a ailabili y
As illus a ed in Figu e 1, ood consump ion pa e ns di e ac oss agg ega ed egions bo h in
e ms o o al consump ion and die composi ion.
In he SSP2 scena io, pe capi a ood a ailabili y is p ojec ed o inc ease be ween 2020 and 2050
in BRA and OSA, ROW, SAS (incl. China) and AME and o s ay b oadly s able in NAM and EUE
whe e die s ha e s abilized. The consump ion o animal p oduc s and hei sha es in die s a e
expec ed o g ow in mos egions due o g ow h in pe capi a incomes, excep in NAM and EUE
as consump ion is al eady a high le els.
As discussed in D7.2, in he IAP scena io, which assumes he eplacemen o hal o animal
calo ies by plan -based calo ies in egions wi h high consump ion, he sha e o plan -based
p oduc s in die s, bu also o al ood a ailabili y in 2050 a e highe han in he baseline. Pe
capi a a ailabili y o plan -based p oduc s inc eases due o he assumed die a y shi bu also
because o a decline in c op p ices due o a la ge d op in eed demand and educed land sca ci y.
The T .Dis scena io, which assumes a cap on China’s impo s o US soy-based p oduc s om
2020 onwa ds, has no isible impac on pe capi a ood a ailabili y a he egional le el, which
sugges s ha his scena io does no gene a e signi ican impac s on global ma ke s.
Ze o o es and o he na u al lands con e sion o ag icul u e in B azil a e 2020, as assumed in
he ZNLB a scena io, is expec ed o ha e a limi ed impac on ood a ailabili y, wi h only a small
decline in pe capi a a ailabili y o animal p oduc s in B azil compa ed o he 2050 SSP2.
The EUDR, EUM+EUDR and EUM+EUDR_WeakLUR scena ios also ha e no impac on calo ie
a ailabili y in B azil, EU o any o he agg ega ed egions, indica ing ha hey do no gene a e
signi ican impac s on ma ke s.
The EUM+EUDR_ZNLB a scena io has a simila impac on ood a ailabili y in B azil han he
ZNLB a scena io i.e., i leads o a small decline in in pe capi a a ailabili y o animal p oduc s
compa ed o he baseline. The EUM+EUDemSide scena io leads o simila ou comes o ood
a ailabili y in he EU as he IAP scena io i.e., an inc ease in he sha e o plan -based p oduc s in
die s, bu also in o al ood a ailabili y in 2050 compa ed o he baseline. As explained abo e,
his is due o he assumed shi in EU die s away om animal p oduc s bu also because o a
decline in c op p ices due o a la ge d op in eed demand and educed land sca ci y.
40
The EUM+EUBBAM scena io leads o a small decline in calo ie a ailabili y in he EU compa ed
o he 2050 SSP2 scena io (-1.5%), mainly due o sligh ly lowe pe capi a a ailabili y o plan -
based p oduc s – ollowing he implemen a ion o an EU bo de biodi e si y adjus men ax on
selec ed high- isk commodi ies.
Figu e 1. P ojec ed ends in ood a ailabili y pe capi a (in ene ge ic con en , kcal/cap/day) o i e agg ega ed
and wo zoomed egions (B azil BRA and Eu opean Union EUE). The colo s di e en ia e animal-based ( u quoise)
s plan -based ood p oduc s (yellow).
P oduc ion and ne ade
Figu e 2 displays ends in p oduc ion and ne ade by agg ega ed egions o li es ock
p oduc s, soybean and o he c ops while Figu e 3 shows ne bila e al ade in all soy-based
p oduc s (i.e., soybean, soy oil and soybean meal - in soybean equi alen ) be ween agg ega ed
egions.
In he SSP2 scena io, ag icul u al p oduc ion is p ojec ed o inc ease globally be ween 2020 and
2050, wi h mos ou pu g ow h occu ing in SAS, AME and OSA. Soy p oduc ion is p ojec ed o
g ow in all p oducing egions, bu mo e s ongly in B azil, which is expec ed o accoun o o e
hal o global ou pu g ow h by 2050.
Ne expo e s o li es ock p oduc s a e expec ed o inc ease hei ade su pluses be ween 2020
and 2050 while o o he c ops, ne expo s a e p ojec ed o inc ease in B azil bu decline in
NAM and OSA. Ne expo e s o soy-based p oduc s a e also p ojec ed o inc ease hei ade
su pluses, wi h B azil consolida ing i s posi ion as he wo ld’s la ges expo e and inc easing i s
41
ne expo s by 76% be ween 2020 and 2050. AME, in u n, is expec ed o see i s ag icul u al
ade de ici widen whe eas SAS is p ojec ed o educe i s ne impo s o bo h li es ock and c op
p oduc s (excl. soy-based p oduc s) due o s ong p oduc ion g ow h. In con as , SAS impo s
o soy-based p oduc s ep esen mos o he p ojec ed global inc eases in ne impo s.
As discussed in D7.2, in he IAP scena io, li es ock p oduc ion d ops in all egions compa ed o
he 2050 SSP2 scena io, oge he wi h global soy p oduc ion - o which eed use accoun s o
he la ges sha e o o al demand. The p oduc ion o o he c ops also declines sligh ly om he
2050 SSP2 - al hough a a lowe a e han soy p oduc ion - as he educ ion in demand o eed
c ops o se s he inc ease in demand o plan -based ood. Ne expo s o soy-based p oduc s
om B azil inc ease a a a lowe a e han in he SSP2 (20% compa ed o 76%), and i s expo s
o he EU e en decline. In line wi h he obse ed ends in p oduc ion, ne ade in li es ock and
o he c ops also inc ease a a much slowe a e han in he baseline in all egions.
In he T .Dis scena io, NAM soy p oduc ion and ne expo s o soy-based p oduc s decline om
2050 SSP2 le el, wi h a co esponding inc ease in p oduc ion and expo s in B azil (+5% and 6%,
espec i ely, compa ed o he 2050 SSP2) and OSA, o a lowe ex en . This is in line wi h wha
has been obse ed du ing he ecen US-China ade dispu es, whe e B azil abso bs China’s soy
demand ha is no me by he US, and limi ed e-alloca ion o US expo s o o he ma ke s.
The ZNLB a scena io only has a small impac on ag icul u al p oduc ion in he coun y; wi h soy
and li es ock ou pu sligh ly declining om 2050 baseline le els (bu inc easing om 2020
le els). Acco dingly, B azil ne expo s o li es ock and soy-based p oduc s inc ease sligh ly less
han in he baseline (-3% o ne expo s o soy-based p oduc s compa ed o he 2050 SSP2),
which bene i o he soy expo e s (NAM and OSA).
As assumed in he EUDR scena io, he implemen a ion o he EUDR leads o a 3% decline in
B azil’s expo s o soy-based p oduc s o he EU compa ed o he SSP2 by 2050. The decline in
B azil’s ne expo s o he EU (-0.6 M compa ed o he 2050 SSP2) is e y mode a ely o se by
an inc ease in i s expo s o o he egions (+0.2 M ) (OSA, SAS – incl. China, ROW and AME) –
indica ing limi ed e asion o o he ma ke s. Simila ly, EU ne impo s om OSA and NAM sligh ly
inc ease om he 2050 SSP2 (+0.3M ) bu less han he decline in i s impo s om B azil. O e all,
he EUDR implemen a ion leads o a ma ginal ealloca ion in soy ade bu does no a ec he
le el o soy p oduc ion in B azil (o elsewhe e) no i s o e all expo le el.
As assumed in he EUM+EUDR scena io, by 2050 B azil’s expo s o soy-based p oduc s o he
EU inc ease by abou 15% compa ed o wha is p ojec ed in he SSP2 scena io (+3 M ). Hal o
he inc ease in EU ne impo s o soy-based p oduc s om B azil is o se by lowe impo s om
o he egions (i.e., OSA, NAM and ROW), as he EUM ade ag eemen inc eases he p e e ence
o B azilian soy expo s on he EU ma ke (compa ed o expo s om o he egions). Simila ly,
he inc ease in B azil’s ne expo s o he EU is pa ly o se by lowe expo s o o he egions
(mainly SAS bu also ROW, AME and OSA). This leads o small o e all inc ease in o al EU ne
impo s (+5%) and B azil ne expo s (+1%) o soy-based p oduc s compa ed o he 2050 SSP2,
bu does no signi ican ly impac he le el o soy p oduc ion in B azil - which is only 1% highe
han 2050 SSP2 le el. Howe e , i leads o lowe g ow h in EU soy p oduc ion han wha is
p ojec ed in he SSP2 (-3.5% om 2050 SSP2 le els).
Value o p oduc ion
The p ojec ed alue o p oduc ion (USD 2000) o p ima y ag icul u al p oduc s (i.e., excluding
seconda y p oduc s such as ege able oils and p o ein meals) is displayed in Figu e 5. I is
calcula ed as p oduc ion olume mul iplied by p oduce p ices, and p o ides an unde s anding
o changes in he economic alue o ag icul u al p oduc ion.
In he SSP2 scena io, he o al alue o ag icul u al p oduc ion is expec ed o inc ease in all
egions be ween 2020 and 2050, wi h s ong inc ease p ojec ed in AME and SAS. The alue o
soy p oduc ion is p ojec ed o decline in NAM (due o a p ojec ed p ice dec ease) and o inc ease
in BRA and OSA.
As discussed in D7.2, in he IAP scena io, he alue o p oduc ion d ops in all egions compa ed
o he 2050 SSP2, mainly d i en by a s ong decline in he alue o li es ock p oduc ion, which
dec eases a a highe a e han physical olume due o a d op in ma ke p ices. The alue o soy
p oduc ion also declines in BRA and OSA (a a simila a e han physical olume) as well as in
NAM, despi e an inc ease in p oduc ion in his egion.
In he T .Dis scena io, he alue o soy p oduc ion declines a a highe a e han physical olume
in NAM as soy p ices d op due o a educ ion in Chinese impo demand. Soy p oduc ion alue,
in u n, inc eases in BRA and OSA – b oadly in line wi h changes in physical olume, indica ing
limi ed p ice e ec s on global ma ke s.
In he ZNLB a scena io, ag icul u al p oduc ion alue in B azil sligh ly inc eases om he 2050
SSP2 due o an inc ease in he alue o li es ock p oduc ion (+8%) as p ice inc eases mo e han
p oduc ion declines. This highligh s ha he o e all economic impac o such in e en ion could
e en be posi i e a he sec o ial le el.
The EUDR scena io has no signi ican impac on he alue o ag icul u al p oduc ion in B azil no
in o he agg ega ed egions, as i does no eally impac soy p oduc ion olume no ma ke
p ices. The EUM+EUDR scena io has limi ed impac on he alue o soy p oduc ion in B azil bu
leads o a 11% decline in he alue o EU soy p oduc ion compa ed o he 2050 SSP2. Soy
p oduc ion alue in he EU declines a a s onge a e han physical olume (-11% s -3.5%)
indica ing a decline in EU soy p ices ollowing he educ ion in domes ic demand.
The EUM+EUDR_ZNLB a scena io has he same impac on he alue o ag icul u al p oduc ion
in B azil han he ZNLB a scena io i.e., i leads o some inc ease in he alue o li es ock
p oduc ion compa ed o he 2050 SSP2 as p ice inc eases mo e han p oduc ion declines.
In he EUM+EUDR_WeakLUR scena io, he alue o ag icul u al p oduc ion sligh ly inc eases in
B azil compa ed o he 2050 SSP2, due o a small inc ease in he alue o soy p oduc ion (+3.5%).
The alue o soy p oduc ion inc eases a a simila a e as physical olume, which indica es
limi ed p ice e ec s on ma ke s om a weakening o land conse a ion e o s in B azil, bu a
small inc ease in p oduc ion olumes.
49
In he EUM+EUBBAM scena io, he alue o ag icul u al p oduc ion in he EU inc eases by 4%
compa ed o he 2050 SSP2 scena io, due o inc ease in he alue o p oduc ion o o he c ops
(+11%) and soy (+32% bu om a e y low basis). The alues o soy and o he c op p oduc ion
inc ease a a much highe a e han physical olume, indica ing a ise in ma ke p ices, ollowing
he inc ease in domes ic demand. The alue o soy p oduc ion also inc eases a a highe a e
han p oduc ion olume in NAM (8% s 1.3%) as he inc ease in EU demand o NAM soy-based
p oduc s pushed p ices up. In BRA and OSA, on he o he hand, he alue o soy p oduc ion
declines a a simila a e as p oduc ion olume indica ing limi ed p ice e ec s. O e all, his
sugges s ha an EU bo de adjus men ax on biodi e si y would ha e posi i e economic impac
o EU and NAM p oduce s bu sligh ly nega i e implica ions o BRA and OSA soy p oduce s
(due o ela i ely highe biodi e si y oo p in o soy), as well as o palm oil p oduce s in SAS.
The EUM+EUDemSide scena io leads o impo an decline in he alue o ag icul u al p oduc ion
in he EU (-44% compa ed o 2050 SSP2) mainly due o d op in he alue o li es ock p oduc ion
(-62%) as well as o he c ops (-11%) and soy p oduc ion (-41% bu om a low basis). The
p oduc ion alues o li es ock and soy decline a highe a e han physical olume indica ing a
d op in ma ke p ices ollowing he educ ion in demand o animal p oduc s and eed c ops.
This sugges s ha a shi in EU die could gene a e ade-o s in e ms o economic impac on
EU ag icul u al p oduce s. In BRA and OSA, he alue o soy p oduc ion declines a a simila a e
o p oduc ion olume indica ing limi ed p ice e ec s.
Figu e 5. P ojec ed ends in alue o p oduc ion (in billions o USD2000) o i e agg ega ed egions and wo
zoomed egions (B azil BRA and Eu opean Union EUE). The colo s di e en ia e li es ock p oduc s ( u quoise, LSP)
om soy (pu ple, SOY) and o he p ima y c ops (yellow, OCROP).
50
Land use
As shown in Figu e 6, he p ojec ed changes in land use om 2020 o 2050 a y ac oss egions,
wi h ela i ely s able land use in NAM, EUE and ROW and u he con e sion o o es and o he
land o c opland and pas u e in o he egions.
In a SSP2 u u e, BRA is expec ed o ha e a ela i ely high and inc easing sha e o land dedica ed
o soy (including bo h single c opping and soy-co n double c opping), and a ela i ely high o es
loss a e. Howe e , om 2030 onwa ds, he e is an inc ease in es o a ion land ollowing he
implemen a ion o he Fo es Codes’s Legal Rese e equi emen s (see D6.5 o mo e de ails).
As discussed in D7.2, in he IAP scena io, pas u e d ops in all egions om bo h 2050 and 2020
SSP2 le els ollowing he shi in die s away om animal p oduc s. C opland also declines sligh ly
om he 2050 SSP2 in all egions (and om 2020 in mos egions), wi h ela i ely la ge d op in
land dedica ed o soy in B azil due o he educed demand o eed c ops and he assumed
addi ional yield g ow h. F eed up ag icul u al land is con e ed o es o a ion land in all egions
(as assumed as pa o he policy package)
10
, while losses o o es and o he na u al lands a e
la gely mi iga ed (p e en ing he con e sion o 80Mha o o es and o 56Mha o o he na u al
land compa ed o he SSP2).
In he T .Dis scena io, soy a ea sligh ly inc eases in B azil om he 2050 SSP2 (+4%) o mee he
inc ease in soy impo demand om China, wi h co esponding decline in pas u e and o es o
a lowe ex en .
In he ZNLB a scena io, pas u e – soy and o he c opland o a lowe ex en - decline in B azil
compa ed o he 2050 SSP2 scena io, p e en ing he con e sion o 50 Mha o o es and 16 Mha
o o he na u al lands.
The EUDR and EUM+EUDR scena ios ha e no impac on land use in B azil o in o he agg ega ed
egions as hey ha e no impac on ag icul u al p oduc ion. The EUM+EUDR_ZNLB a scena io has
he same impac on land use as he ZNLB a scena io i.e., i leads o la ge a oided loss o o es s
and o he na u al lands. This sugges s ha he EU policies could con ibu e o educ ion in
na u al lands con e sion i hey succeeded o os e inc eased land conse a ion e o s in B azil.
In he EUM+EUDR_WeakLUR scena io, c opland (mainly o soy p oduc ion) and o he na u al
lands sligh ly inc ease in B azil compa ed o he 2050 SSP2 (+ 27Mha and 38Mha, espec i ely),
wi h co esponding decline in o es . This sugges s ha a weakening o land conse a ion e o s
in B azil ollowing he implemen a ion o he EU ade- ela ed policies could sligh ly exace ba e
con e sion o o es s o ag icul u al land compa ed o wha is p ojec ed in he SSP2. This
mode a e e ec is consis en wi h he ac ha in ou p ojec ions, de o es a ion emains d i en
by pas u e expansion, and ha new soy p oduc ion is sou ced p ima ily om pas u e wi h
limi ed leakage o o es s.
10
In B azil, es o a ion e o s as pa o he IAP a e addi ional o hose as pa o he Fo es Code (wi h la ge inc ease
in es o a ion land compa ed o he baseline).
51
In he EUM+EUBBAM scena io, soy a ea in B azil d ops by 2% compa ed o he 2050 SSP2
ollowing he educ ion in EU impo demand, wi h co esponding inc ease in o he na u al
lands, and pas u e ( o a lowe ex en ). In he EU, on he o he hand, c opland sligh ly inc eases
compa ed o he 2050 SSP2 (+3%), wi h co esponding decline in o he na u al lands.
The EUM+EUDemSide scena io leads o s ong decline in pas u e (-34%) and c opland o lowe
ex en in he EU due o a educ ion in demand o animal p oduc s and eed c ops, and
co esponding inc ease in o he na u al lands. I also leads o a 3% decline in soy a ea in B azil
compa ed o he 2050 SSP2 and co esponding inc ease in o he na u al lands and pas u e, o a
lowe ex en .
Figu e 6. P ojec ed ends in land use (in million hec a es) o i e agg ega ed egions and wo zoomed egions
(B azil BRA and Eu opean Union EUE). The colo s di e en ia e pas u e ( u quoise) om soy c op physical a ea
(pu ple) and o he p ima y c op physical a ea (yellow), as well as o es ( ed), o he land (blue) and es o a ion
land (o ange).
GHG emissions
Figu e 7 shows p ojec ed GHG emissions om li es ock ( h ough en e ic e men a ion and
manu e managemen ), soy and o he c ops ( h ough c opland soil N2O emissions and CH4
emissions om ice cul i a ion), and LUC ( h ough changes in abo e g ound ca bon s ocks) in
he di e en scena ios. O e all, li es ock accoun s o he la ges sha e o AFOLU emissions in
mos egions, excep in BRA and AME whe e LUC emissions domina e.
52
In he SSP2 scena io, LUC emissions a e p ojec ed o emain s able (when low in 2020) o
dec ease (when high in 2020) in all egions be ween 2020 and 2050, excep in AME whe e an
inc ease is p ojec ed due o he con e sion o unmanaged land o ag icul u al land. C op and
li es ock emissions, in u n, a e p ojec ed o inc ease globally. O e all, o al AFOLU GHG
emissions a e p ojec ed o inc ease in all egions excep in B azil, whe e he decline in LUC
emissions ( ollowing he implemen a ion o he Fo es Code) mo e han o se he inc ease in
di ec emissions om ag icul u e.
As discussed in D7.2, in he IAP scena io, GHG emissions dec ease in all egions compa ed o he
baseline, mainly due o a la ge d op in LUC emissions (which become a ca bon sink in mos
egions) and in li es ock emissions, and some decline in c op emissions. In he T .Dis scena io,
no signi ican changes in GHG emissions a e p ojec ed compa ed o he SSP2 scena io. In ZNLB a
scena io, B azil’s AFOLU emissions dec ease compa ed o he baseline (bu less han in he IAP
scena io), mainly due o a la ge d op in LUC emissions and a small decline in li es ock emissions.
The EUDR, EUM+EUDR scena ios ha e a e y ma ginal impac on AFOLU emissions in B azil no
in o he agg ega ed egions as hey ba ely a ec ag icul u al p oduc ion no land use. The
EUM+EUDR_WeakLUR scena io also has no clea impac on AFOLU emissions in B azil by 2050,
gi en i s limi ed impac on land use and he small con ibu ion o soy o o al c opland soil
emissions. I should howe e be no ed ha i measu ed accumula ed o e 2020-2050 ( a he
han in 2050), GHG emissions om land use change a e sligh ly highe . The EUM+EUDR_ZNLB a
scena io leads o simila educ ion in AFOLU emissions in B azil han he ZNLB a scena io.
The EUM+EUBBAM scena io leads o a small inc ease in AFOLU emissions in he EU (+1.2%
compa ed o he 2050 SSP2) due o some inc ease in c op emissions (incl. soy) – ollowing some
inc ease in domes ic p oduc ion. I also leads o a small inc ease in AFOLU GHG emissions in
B azil, due o a small inc ease in emissions om LUC (+1%) and o he c ops (+1.2%), in eac ion
o he small global ma ke s eadjus men s occu ing by 2050.
In he EUM+EUDemSide scena io, EU AFOLU emissions d op by 27% compa ed o he SSP2
baseline scena io in 2050, mainly due o a s ong decline in li es ock emissions and some
dec ease in c op and land use change emissions. Howe e , his decline is less p onounced han
in he IAP scena io which also conside s supply side and conse a ion and es o a ion measu es
in addi ion o demand side measu es. This scena io also leads o small decline in LUC and soy
emissions in B azil (by 2% and 3%, espec i ely, compa ed o he 2050 SSP2) and OSA o a lowe
ex en .
53
Figu e 7. P ojec ed ends in annual GHG emissions (in billion ons o CO2 equi alen s pe yea ) om he ag icul u e
and land use (AFOLU) sec o s o agg ega ed wo ld egions and wo zoomed egions (B azil BRA and Eu opean
Union EUE). The colo s di e en ia e emissions om li es ock p oduc ion ( u quoise, LSP), soy c op p oduc ion
(pu ple), o he c op p oduc ion (yellow), and land use change ( ed).
Wa e use
The p ojec ed changes in wa e use o i iga ed c op p oduc ion a e displayed in Figu e 8. Fo
mos egions, i iga ion wa e use is p ojec ed o emain s able o sligh ly inc ease, wi h
p ojec ed inc eases in wa e use e iciency mi iga ing he inc eases in i iga ed c op p oduc ion.
Wa e use o soy p oduc ion is only signi ican in NAM (as soy is no i iga ed in BRA) and is
p ojec ed o s ay b oadly s able o e ime.
As discussed in D7.2, in he IAP scena io, global wa e use is p ojec ed o be b oadly in line wi h
he 2050 SSP2, wi h a decline in some egions (SAS, and AME) and an inc ease in o he s. Soy
wa e use in NAM is p ojec ed o inc ease compa ed o he baseline due o an inc ease in soy
p oduc ion. In he T .Dis scena io, soy wa e use sligh ly declines om 2050 baseline le els in
NAM due o a d op in soy p oduc ion ollowing a educ ion in Chinese impo demand. The
ZNLB a scena io has no clea impac on wa e use in B azil.
The EUDR, EUM+EUDR, EUM+EUDR_ZNLB a and EUM+EUDR_WeakLUR scena ios also ha e no
signi ican impac on wa e use in B azil no in o he agg ega ed egions.
The EUM+EUBBAM scena io has no signi ican impac on o e all wa e use in he EU, BRA no in
o he agg ega ed egions. Soy wa e use in he EU mo e han doubles ollowing he inc ease in
54
domes ic p oduc ion bu s a ing om a e y low basis, he e o e i has e y limi ed impac on
o e all wa e use o i iga ed c ops. Soy wa e use, in u n, sligh ly declines in OSA bu also
s a ing om a low base while he e is no impac on wa e use in B azil as soy is no i iga ed.
The EUM+EUDemSide scena io leads o a decline in soy wa e use in he EU (which goes o ze o)
as well as in OSA. He e again, his has e y limi ed impac on o e all wa e use in hese egions
gi en he mino con ibu ion o soy o o al i iga ion wa e use.
Figu e 8. P ojec ed ends in wa e use o i iga ion (in km3) o i e agg ega ed egions and wo zoomed egions
(B azil BRA and Eu opean Union EUE). The colo s di e en ia e soy c ops (pu ple) om o he c ops (yellow).
Biodi e si y impac s
Biodi e si y impac s on e es ial ecosys ems om local ag icul u e, measu ed in po en ially
disappea ed ac ion o global species in eg a ed o e ime (pd .yea ), a e displayed in Figu e 9
(see D6.3 o mo e de ails on he me hodology). In absolu e e ms, hey a e highe in egions
wi h a signi ican sha e o opical ecosys ems (e.g., SAS, BRA and OSA, and AME). Land
occupa ion has he la ges impac in all egions, ollowed by land ans o ma ion (excep in NAM
whe e clima e change impac s a e highe ). I should be no ed ha only biodi e si y impac s om
he land use and ag icul u al sec o s a e accoun ed o , and o al clima e change impac s ( om
all human ac i i ies) a e la ge .
In he SSP2 scena io, land ans o ma ion impac s a e p ojec ed o decline be ween 2020 and
2050, especially in egions whe e hey a e cu en ly la ge (e.g. BRA and OSA, AME, SAS). Land
55
occupa ion and clima e impac s, in u n, a e p ojec ed o emain b oadly s able o inc ease o e
ime, excep o clima e impac s in B azil due he es o a ion o eseen in he Fo es Code. I
should be no ed ha , by assump ion, es o a ion does no di ec ly educe land ans o ma ion
impac s on biodi e si y: land ans o ma ion measu es o a con e sion in o a wo se s a e – e.g.,
om o es o c opland – ha will occu once he habi a is le o eco e (i.e., he impac s
associa ed o he eco e y o he modi ied habi a a e i is le o eco e ), while es o a ion is
a ansi ion om modi ied o p is ine habi a and he e o e no a ansi ion o a wo se s a e (see
CLEVER deli e able D6.3). On he con a y, es o a ion leads o educed biodi e si y impac s
om land occupa ion (as i coun s as p is ine land use) and clima e change (as i gene a es
nega i e GHG emissions).
As discussed in D7.2, in he IAP scena io, biodi e si y impac s on e es ial ecosys ems a e
expec ed o be signi ican ly lowe han in he SSP2 scena io in all egions, mainly due o a s ong
decline in clima e change impac s bu also in land occupa ion and land ans o ma ion impac s.
In he ZNLB a scena io, biodi e si y impac s on e es ial ecosys ems in B azil a e also below
baseline le els (bu highe han in he IAP scena io) mainly due o s ong decline in land
ans o ma ion impac s as well as some decline in land occupa ion and clima e change impac s.
The T .Dis scena io has no clea impac on e es ial biodi e si y.
The EUDR and EUM+EUDR scena ios ha e no signi ican impac on e es ial biodi e si y in
B azil no in o he agg ega ed egions. This can be explained by he ac ha hese scena ios
ha e no signi ican impac on ei he ag icul u al p oduc ion, land use, o GHG emissions.
The EUM+EUDR_WeakLUR scena io also has limi ed impac on e es ial biodi e si y in B azil,
wi h o e all impac being 1% abo e he 2050 SSP2 due o sligh ly highe land occupa ion and
land ans o ma ion impac s a he scale o B azil (bu see nex sec ions o a de ail o impac s
wi hin B azil). This indica es ha he po en ial impac on biodi e si y o de egula ion in B azil in
esponse o EU unila e al measu es migh be limi ed in he absence o highe demand. I should
also be no ed ha he model p ima ily esponds o ag icul u al ma ke dynamics and likely
unde es ima e ‘land g abbing’ dynamics (i.e., de o es a ion o public o un i led o claim land
owne ship, wi hou signi ican ag icul u al ac i i y o se e al yea s i no decades), which could
be exace ba ed in such a scena io.
The EUM+EUDR_ZNLB a scena io leads o simila decline in e es ial biodi e si y impac s as
he ZNLB a scena io, which sugges s ha EU policies could ha e posi i e impac s on biodi e si y
i hey succeed o os e inc eased domes ic conse a ion e o s in B azil (‘B ussels e ec ’).
The EUM+EUBBAM scena io has no signi ican impac on e es ial biodi e si y in he EU (no
elsewhe e) gi en i s limi ed impac on land use and GHG emissions.
The EUM+EUDemSide scena io leads o 9% decline in e es ial biodi e si y impac s in he EU
compa ed o he 2050 SSP2 scena io. I is mainly d i en by a decline in clima e change and land
occupa ion impac s and some decline in land ans o ma ion impac s. Howe e , biodi e si y
impac s on e es ial ecosys ems in he EU a e highe han in he IAP scena io, which also
conside s supply side and conse a ion and es o a ion measu es in addi ion o die shi .
56
Figu e 9. P ojec ed ends in biodi e si y impac s on e es ial ecosys ems (in PDF.yea ) om local p oduc ion o
i e agg ega ed egions and wo zoomed egions (B azil BRA and Eu opean Union EUE). The colo s di e en ia e
impac s h ough clima e change (blue), land occupa ion ( ed), and land ans o ma ion (g een).
The p ojec ed biodi e si y impac s om local p oduc ion on eshwa e ecosys ems also di e
ac oss egions (Figu e 10). In absolu e e ms, i is highe in NAM, SAS and ROW han in opical
egions. In e ms o p essu es, impac s end o be domina ed by wa e s ess (in pa icula o
NAM), ollowed by eu ophica ion (which howe e is he mos impo an p essu e in B azil) and
clima e change (which howe e is he mos impo an p essu e in EUE).
In he SSP2 scena io, impac s on eshwa e ecosys ems a e p ojec ed o emain b oadly s able
in some egions (e.g., NAM, EUE) o inc ease (e.g., in OSA and AME due o inc eased wa e s ess,
and in BRA due o eu ophica ion) be ween 2020 and 2050.
As discussed in D7.2, in he IAP scena io, impac s on eshwa e ecosys ems d op in mos egions
compa ed o he 2050 SSP2, mainly due o a s ong decline in clima e change impac s. In he
T .Dis scena io, impac s on eshwa e ecosys ems decline sligh ly in NAM compa ed o he 2050
SSP2 due o a dec ease in wa e s ess associa ed wi h lowe wa e use o soy p oduc ion, while
hey ma ginally inc ease in BRA mainly due o a small inc ease in eshwa e eu ophica ion. In
he ZNLB a scena io, biodi e si y impac s on eshwa e ecosys ems in B azil a e below 2050
baseline le els (bu highe han in he IAP scena io), mainly due o a decline in clima e change
and eshwa e eu ophica ion impac s.
57
The EUDR and EUM+EUDR scena ios ha e no signi ican impac on eshwa e ecosys ems in
ei he B azil o in o he agg ega ed egions as hey do no a ec wa e use, AFOLU emissions
no inpu use.
The EUM+EUDR_ZNLB a scena io leads o simila educ ion in eshwa e biodi e si y impac s
as he ZNLB a scena io, indica ing ha EU policies could help educe p essu e on B azilian
aqua ic ecosys ems i hey succeed o os e inc eased domes ic land conse a ion e o s.
The EUM+EUDR_WeakLUR scena io leads o a 3% decline in eshwa e biodi e si y impac s in
B azil compa ed o 2050 SSP2 mainly due o lowe eu ophica ion impac s, due o he sligh
inc ease in c opland o soy and o he c ops.
The EUM+EUBBAM scena io has no signi ican impac on eshwa e ecosys ems in he EU.
Howe e , as compa ed o he 2050 SSP2, i leads o a 2% inc ease in biodi e si y impac s on
eshwa e ecosys ems in NAM (due o inc ease in wa e s ess ollowing inc ease in EU impo
demand o soy), and a 1% inc ease in eshwa e biodi e si y impac s in B azil due o lowe
eshwa e eu ophica ion.
The EUM+EUDemSide scena io leads o an 8% decline in eshwa e ecosys ems impac s in he
EU compa ed o he 2050 SSP2, mainly due o a dec ease in clima e change impac and some
decline in eshwa e eu ophica ion and wa e s ess. I also leads o a 2% decline in biodi e si y
impac on eshwa e ecosys ems in B azil, mainly due o lowe eshwa e eu ophica ion
ollowing a small decline in soy p oduc ion.
64
Biodi e si y impac s
Figu e 15 shows he impac s on e es ial ecosys ems om a ming ac i i ies in he six B azilian
biomes, based on wo di e en LCA me hodologies. In he igu es in he op panel, biodi e si y
impac s a e calcula ed based on he LC-IMPACT a e age cha ac e iza ion ac o s (CFs) (Ve ones
e al., 2020) while hose in he bo om panel a e calcula ed based on he new CFs de eloped o
Sou h Ame ica in he con ex o D2.4 (he ea e e e ed o as ‘CLEVER CFs’) (Oli ei a e al., 2019;
Oli ei a & Pacheco, 2024) I should be no ed ha esul s o his igu e omi clima e change
impac s, which a e a ailable o he LC-IMPACT CFs bu no o he CLEVER CFs. As discussed in
D7.2, while bo h me hods end o p edic simila o e all ends, he main di e ences lie in he
scale o he impac s (in pa icula , o ans o ma ion impac s – which a e abou wo imes
highe wi h he CLEVER CFs) and he ela i e con ibu ion o di e en biomes o he o e all
impac s. These igu es a y due o di e ences in app oaches, especially as ega ds he p is ine
ecosys em baseline, as desc ibed in D6.3.
In he SSP2 scena io, wi h bo h app oaches, he o al land impac s on e es ial ecosys ems a e
p ojec ed o decline o e ime, due o a d op in land ans o ma ion (i.e., LUC) impac s and
despi e an inc ease in land occupa ion impac s.
As discussed in D7.2, in he IAP scena io, o al impac on e es ial ecosys ems dec eases
compa ed o he baseline, due o a decline in bo h land occupa ion and land ans o ma ion
impac s. In he ZNLB a scena io, he o al impac on e es ial ecosys ems also declines
compa ed o he SSP2 mainly due o a d op in land ans o ma ion and some decline in land
occupa ion impac s. Howe e , which o he IAP o ZNLB a scena ios lead o he bes ou come
o e es ial biodi e si y depends on he me hod, wi h he IAP scena io pe o ming be e
when using LC-IMPACT CFs and he ZNLB a scena io when using he CLEVER CFs.
12
The T .Dis
scena io, in u n, has no signi ican impac on e es ial biodi e si y wi h bo h me ics.
The EUDR and EUM+EUDR scena ios ha e no impac on e es ial ecosys ems in B azil wi h bo h
me hods as hey do no impac ag icul u e p oduc ion and land use no GHG emissions. I should
be no ed, howe e , ha in hese scena ios, he EU policies only apply o soy ade be ween
B azil and EU, and no o o he commodi ies (i.e., bee , palm oil, cocoa, co ee, imbe and
ubbe ) no impo s om o he coun ies. The e o e, i does no cap u e he ull impac o he
EUDR and EUM on biodi e si y, and i should also no ed ha ou es ima es ely on he assumed
e ec s o hese policies (see discussion). As a eminde , he EUM is assumed o inc ease expo s
o he EU by 20%, while a ull compliance o EUDR is assumed o soy expo s o he EU (gi en
he limi ed sha e o EU expo s in o al B azil p oduc ion), wi h compliance cos s leading o a
educ ion o expo s o he EU by 3% (o an inc ease o 15% when combined wi h he EUM).
Di e en assump ions he e could lead o sligh ly di e en es ima es. In addi ion, al hough doing
so was no easible wi hin he ame o CLEVER (see D6.5), including a ailable in o ma ion (e.g.,
TARSE da ase ) abou he subna ional dis ibu ion o ma ke sha es o a ious soy expo s o
12
The a oided loss o o es and o he na u al land in he ZNLB a scena io (as compa ed o he SSP2 scena io) seem
o be equally bene icial o biodi e si y wi h bo h me hods (close o ull elimina ion o ans o ma ion impac s),
while he land use change pa e ns o he IAP scena io as compa ed o o he scena io seems o esul in much
highe bene i s o biodi e si y when using he LC-IMPACT CFs (close o ull elimina ion o ans o ma ion impac s)
han when using he CLEVER CFs ( e y limi ed dec ease in ans o ma ion impac s).
65
he EU could o example allow o a ine impac on subna ional de o es a ion and soy
p oduc ion pa e ns; his would howe e no d ama ically change he pic u e.
As he ZNLB a scena io, he EUM+EUDR_ZNLB a scena io leads o la ge decline in impac s on
e es ial ecosys ems compa ed o he SSP2, which sugges s ha EU policies could ha e posi i e
impac s on biodi e si y i public and p i a e s akeholde s in B azil eac by inc easing hei land
conse a ion e o s in o de o main ain o inc ease hei access o he EU ma ke .
In he EUM+EUDR_WeakLUR scena io, when using he LC-IMPACT CFs, he impac s on e es ial
ecosys ems inc ease by 10% in he Amazonia biome compa ed o he 2050 SSP2 due o an
inc ease in land ans o ma ion impac s and some inc ease in land occupa ion impac s.
Te es ial ecosys ems impac s decline in all o he biomes (mainly Ma a A lan ica and Ce ado)
– mainly due o a dec ease in land ans o ma ion impac s in Ma a A lan ica and in land
occupa ion impac s in he Ce ado. This leads o o e all biodi e si y impac on e es ial
ecosys ems ha a e 1% highe han he 2050 SSP2. One he one hand, as no ed abo e when
discussing land use impac s, his sugges s ha in he absence o bo h highe le els o demand
o soy p oduc s and ‘land g abing’ dynamics, biodi e si y impac s o a de egula ion migh be
limi ed, as measu ed by compa ing he sum o 2050 alues o land occupa ion and
ans o ma ion impac s. On he o he hand, as also no ed when discussing land use impac s,
accumula ed land use change o e 2020-2050 is highe in EUM+EUDR_WeakLUR han in
EUM+EUDR, and accumula ed land ans o ma ion impac s om 2020 o 2050 ( a he han 2050
alue) a e p ojec ed o be 10% highe o e B azil in he EUM+EUDR_WeakLUR scena io as
compa ed o he EUM+EUDR scena io. A simila pa e n occu s o accumula ed LUC- ela ed
GHG emissions and ela ed biodi e si y impac s, sugges ing o e all ha biodi e si y impac s
om he EUM+EUDR_WeakLUR scena io a e clea ly la ge han ha o he EUM+EUDR scena io,
i accoun ing o accumula ed impac s o clima e change and ans o ma ion o e he 2020-2050
pe iod.
When using he CLEVER CFs, he impac s in 2050 on e es ial ecosys ems a e lowe in mos
biomes – including in Amazonia – in he EUM+EUDR_WeakLUR scena io han in he EUM+EUDR
scena io. In Amazonia, land occupa ion impac s inc ease by 5% compa ed o he 2050 SSP2 bu
his is mo e han o se by a decline in land ans o ma ion impac s. In mos o he biomes (and
mainly Ce ado and Ma a A lan ica) bo h land ans o ma ion and land occupa ion impac s
decline om he 2050 SSP2. This leads o an o e all 7% dec ease in e es ial biodi e si y
impac s compa ed o he 2050 SSP2. Howe e , o ans o ma ion impac s, simila o impac s
es ima ed wi h he LC-IMPACT cha ac e iza ion ac o s, he di e ence be ween scena ios is less
a o able o he EUM+EUDR_WeakLUR scena io when looking a cumula ed impac s be ween
2020 and 2050 (1% highe in EUM+EUDR_WeakLUR) han when looking a 2050 alues (20%
lowe in EUM+EUDR_WeakLUR). O e all, his poin s o unce ain ies in biodi e si y impac s, and
limi ed po en ial biodi e si y impac s om a weake land use egula ion in B azil in ou
p ojec ions (wi h compensa ions ac oss biomes).
The EUM+EUBBAM and EUM+EUDemSide scena ios ha e no signi ican impac on e es ial
ecosys ems in B azil when using bo h he LC-IMPACT and CLEVER CFs as hey ha e no signi ican
impac on land use no AFOLU emissions.
66
Figu e 15. P ojec ed ends in biodi e si y impac o e es ial ecosys ems (Po en ially disappea ed ac ion,
PDF·y) o he six biomes and spli be ween he di e en p essu es co e ed in GLOBIOM. The colo s di e en ia e
namely Amazonia (blue), Caa inga (yellow), Ce ado ( ed), Ma aA lan ica ( u quoise), Pampa (g een) and Pan anal
(pink). The igu es in he op panel a e based on LC-IMPACT cha ac e isa ion ac o s (CFS) while he igu es in he
bo om panel a e based on spa ially-explici CFs de eloped o Sou h Ame ica in CELEVER deli e able D2.4.
As shown in Figu e 16, eshwa e ecosys ems a e mos a ec ed by a ming ac i i ies in he
Ma a A lan ica, Ce ado, and Amazonia biomes.
In he SSP2 scena io, he o al impac on eshwa e ecosys ems in B azil is p ojec ed o inc ease
be ween 2020 and 2050, due o a ise in eshwa e eu ophica ion in all biomes, and some
inc ease in wa e s ess in some biomes (mainly Ma a A lan ica). Clima e change impac s,
howe e , a e p ojec ed o decline, due o declining LUC emissions.
As discussed in D7.2, in he IAP scena io, he impac s on eshwa e ecosys ems a e p ojec ed
o be lowe han in he SSP2 and become nega i e, mainly due o s ong decline in clima e
change impac s and some dec ease in eshwa e eu ophica ion in all biomes. Howe e , as
discussed abo e, wa e s ess sligh ly inc eases om he SSP2 due o a small inc ease in wa e
use o i iga ed c ops. In he T .Dis scena io, biodi e si y impac s on eshwa e ecosys ems
67
sligh ly inc ease om he 2050 SSP2, mainly due o an inc ease in eshwa e eu ophica ion. In
he ZNLB a scena io, he o al eshwa e ecosys ems’ impac s a e p ojec ed o be lowe han
in he SSP2 scena io (bu highe han in he IAP scena io), mainly due o lowe clima e change
and eu ophica ion impac s.
The EUDR and EUM+EUDR scena ios ha e no clea impac on eshwa e ecosys ems in B azil as
hey ha e no impac on GHG emissions, wa e use no inpu use. The EUM+EUDR_ZNLB a
scena io leads o simila educ ion in eshwa e ecosys ems impac s as he ZNLB a scena io.
In he EUM+EUDR_WeakLUR scena io, he biodi e si y impac s on eshwa e ecosys ems
inc ease in he Amazonia biome compa ed o he 2050 SSP2 (+18%) due o a s ong inc ease in
eu ophica ion impac s. This is mo e han o se by a decline in eu ophica ion impac s in o he
biomes (mainly Ce ado, and Ma a A lan ica), leading o a 3% dec ease in o al impac s on
eshwa e ecosys ems compa ed o he 2050 SSP2.
In he EUM+EUBBAM scena io, he biodi e si y impac s on eshwa e ecosys ems in B azil
decline by 1% compa ed o he 2050 SSP2. This is mainly due o sligh ly lowe eshwa e
ecosys ems impac s in all biomes (excep Ma a A lan ica) ollowing a small educ ion in soy
p oduc ion.
In he EUM+EUDemSide scena io, he biodi e si y impac s on eshwa e ecosys ems in B azil
decline by 2% compa ed o he 2050 SSP2. This is mainly due o lowe eshwa e ecosys ems
impac s in Ce ado and Ma a A lan ica, as well as sligh ly lowe clima e change (mainly in
Amazonia and Ma a A lan ica) and wa e s ess impac s (mainly in Ce ado).
Figu e 16. P ojec ed ends in biodi e si y impac o eshwa e ecosys ems (Po en ially disappea ed ac ion,
PDF·y) o he six biomes and spli be ween he di e en p essu es co e ed in GLOBIOM. The colo s di e en ia e
he biomes, namely Amazonia (blue), Caa inga (yellow), Ce ado ( ed), Ma aA lan ica ( u quoise), Pampa (g een)
and Pan anal (pink).
68
Addi ional impac s om ups eam and downs eam soy supply
chain in B azil
In he p e ious sec ions, he p ojec ed en i onmen al impac s o B azilian ag icul u al ac i i ies
ha e been illus a ed, based on he ou come o GLOBIOM o a SSP2 scena io (SSP2) and eigh
s ylized policy scena ios. Howe e , pa s o he supply chain o ag icul u al p oduc s a e missing
in GLOBIOM, he model p ima ily co e ing he impac o di ec a ming ac i i ies and ela ed
changes in esou ce use. Based on he esul s o he LCA de eloped in D6.4, he model was
expanded o include ups eam and downs eam supply chain impac s o soy p oduc ion in B azil.
These a e es ima ed by combining LCA-based es ima es o impac s pe on o soy p oduced wi h
GLOBIOM p ojec ions o he amoun o soy p oduced.
In his sec ion, he biodi e si y impac s associa ed wi h all s eps o he soy supply chains a e
compa ed ac oss he SSP2 and he di e en scena ios. We analyze he di e ences in impac in
e ms o aqua ic and e es ial ex inc ion isk, bu also in e ms o GHG emissions and
eshwa e consump ion.
E olu ion o soy supply chain biodi e si y impac s
In he SSP2 scena io, impac on e es ial ecosys ems om he soy supply chains a e p ojec ed
o sligh ly inc ease o e ime due o an inc ease in ups eam (e.g. inpu p oduc ion) and
downs eam (i.e., c ushing, anspo ) supply chain impac s and despi e some decline in a ming
impac s (mo e speci ically land ans o ma ion) (Figu e 17). The impac on aqua ic ecosys ems,
in u n, is p ojec ed o inc ease s ongly be ween 2020-50, due o an inc ease in all supply chain
impac s (incl. Fa ming-GLOBIOM), and in pa icula impac s linked o inpu p oduc ion and
c ushing. I should be no ed ha o o he impac s han he a ming impac s co e ed in
GLOBIOM, he LCA coe icien s used a e es ima ed di ec ly pe on o p oduc and do no e ol e
dynamically wi h he scena ios in GLOBIOM o include po en ial educ ion linked o
echnological p og ess – which migh lead o an o e es ima ion o hese impac s in he
p ojec ions.
As discussed in D7.2, in he IAP scena io, whe e B azil’s soy p oduc ion d ops compa ed o he
SSP2 ollowing a decline in global demand, he impac s o he soy supply chain on bo h e es ial
and aqua ic ecosys ems decline om he SSP2 le els mainly due o a dec ease in a ming
impac s. Mid-poin s impac s (GHG emissions and eshwa e consump ion) also decline om
he baseline, mainly due o lowe impac s om ups eam supply chain ac i i ies (i.e., inpu
p oduc ion) and c ushing. In he T .Dis scena io, he impac on e es ial and aqua ic
ecosys ems sligh ly inc ease om 2050 baseline le els, mainly due o a ise in a ming and
ups eam supply chain impac s. Mid-poin s impac s also inc ease, mainly due o highe impac s
om ups eam supply chain ac i i ies. In he ZNLB a scena io, he end-poin impac s o he soy
supply chain a e below 2050 SSP2 le els (in pa icula o e es ial ecosys ems) mainly due o
lowe a ming impac s. GHG emissions om he soy supply chain a e also sligh ly below baseline
le els, mainly due o lowe impac s om a ming and c ushing, while eshwa e consump ion
is b oadly in line wi h he 2050 BAU.
69
In he EUDR and EUM+EUDR scena ios, he end-poin impac s (aqua ic and e es ial
biodi e si y) and mid-poin s (GHG emissions and eshwa e consump ion) o he soy supply
chain in B azil a e b oadly in line wi h he 2050 SSP2, wi h all impac s being only 1% abo e 2050
BAU le els o he EUM+EUDR scena io. In he EUM+EUDR_ZNLB a, he end-poin impac s o
he soy supply chain a e below 2050 SSP2 le els mainly due o lowe a ming impac s (by -13%
and -5% o e es ial and aqua ic biodi e si y, espec i ely), simila ly o he ZNLB a scena io.
GHG emissions o he soy supply chain a e also sligh ly below 2050 baseline le el (-3%) due o
lowe impac s om a ming and c ushing while eshwa e consump ion is in line wi h 2050
le el.
In he EUM+EUDR_WeakLUR scena io, he e es ial ecosys ems impac o he soy supply chain
is 24% abo e 2050 SSP2 le el mainly due o highe impac s om a ming ollowing some
inc ease in soy p oduc ion, while he impac on aqua ic ecosys ems is b oadly aligned wi h he
SSP2. GHG emissions om he soy supply chain a e 2% abo e he 2050 SSP2 (mainly due o
highe emissions om a ming and domes ic anspo ) while eshwa e consump ion impac
is 3% below he 2050 SSP2 (due o lowe impac om ups eam supply chain ac i i ies)
In he EUM+EUBBAM scena io, he aqua ic ecosys ems impac s o he B azilian soy supply chain
a e 2% below 2050 SSP2 le els mainly due o lowe impac s om ups eam supply chain
ac i i ies (i.e., inpu p oduc ion) and a ming while he impac on e es ial ecosys ems is 1%
below 2050 SSP2 le el mainly due o lowe impac om a ming. The mid-poin impac s o he
soy supply chain (i.e., GHG emissions and eshwa e consump ion) a e bo h 2% below 2050
SSP2 le els, mainly due o lowe impac s om ups eam supply chain ac i i ies (i.e., inpu
p oduc ion) as well as om c ushing in he case o GHG emissions.
The EUM+EUDemSide scena io, he e es ial and aqua ic ecosys ems impac s o he soy supply
chain a e 1% and 2.5% below 2050 SSP2 le els, espec i ely, mainly due o lowe impac s om
a ming and om ups eam supply chain ac i i ies (i.e., inpu p oduc ion) associa ed wi h
sligh ly lowe soy p oduc ion. The mid-poin impac s o he soy supply chain (i.e., GHG emissions
and eshwa e consump ion) a e bo h abou 3% below 2050 SSP2 le els, mainly due o lowe
impac s om ups eam supply chain ac i i ies (i.e., inpu p oduc ion) as well as om domes ic
anspo and c ushing in he case o GHG emissions.
70
Figu e 17. E olu ion o he mid-poin impac s (GHG emissions and eshwa e consump ion) and end-poin impac s
( eshwa e and e es ial biodi e si y) o he soy supply chain o e ime, di e en ia ed pe supply chain s ep.
Discussion
Soy is one o he mos in e na ionally aded ag icul u al commodi ies. O e he pas decades,
i s p oduc ion and ade expanded apidly, mainly d i en by s ong impo demand o p o ein
meals in China and he Eu opean Union. These in e na ional demands ha e been associa ed
wi h land use change, de o es a ion, and subsequen biodi e si y loss in B azil, he wo ld’s
la ges p oduce and expo e o soybeans. In D7.2, we explo ed he impac o al e na i e u u e
de elopmen in soy ma ke s, cap u ing key sou ces o unce ain ies. In D7.3, we explo e he ole
o a ious go e nance ini ia i es in egula ing B azil-EU soy ade and associa ed biodi e si y
impac . This includes an analysis o he po en ial impac o new ade- ela ed policies (i.e., he
EUDR unila e al EU policy, and EUM ade ag eemen ), as well as he po en ial eac ion o public
and p i a e s akeholde s in B azil o hese new policies – conside ing bo h a s eng hening and
weakening o hei domes ic land conse a ion e o s. The po en ial impac s o al e na i e
policies in he EU ha could be mobilized as a subs i u e o he EUDR o he en i onmen al
oo p in o impo s. These include he implemen a ion o an EU bo de biodi e si y adjus men
mechanism and an inc ease in demand-side sus ainabili y e o s. To ease a syn he ic
unde s anding, we co e he e discussion elemen s ela ed o scena ios om bo h D7.2 and D7.3.
T ends in a business-as-usual u u e
When conside ing he con inua ion o his o ical ends in popula ion, die s, ade and
p oduc i i y, and no change in cu en policies (SSP2 scena io), he global p oduc ion,
consump ion and ade o li es ock and c op p oduc s a e p ojec ed o con inue inc easing by
2050. This includes con inuing g ow h in soy p oduc ion and ade in soy-based p oduc s, wi h
B azil p ojec ed o inc eased i expo s by 76% om 2020 o 2050, and accoun o mo e han
hal o he global g ow h in ou pu and ne expo s in ha pe iod. Mos o he inc ease in expo s
a e des ina ed o Asia, while EU also inc eases i s impo s le el. These b oad p oduc ion and
consump ion pa e ns a e associa ed wi h g owing en i onmen al p essu es, leading o u he
clima e change impac s and inc easing ex inc ion isk o aqua ic and e es ial ecosys ems, in
pa icula in La in Ame ica, Asia and A ica.
In B azil, soy p oduc ion inc ease is p ojec ed o occu p ima ily in he Ce ado biome, and o
some ex en , in he Ma a A lan ica and Pampa biomes. This g ow h is achie ed in la ge pa s by
a con e sion o pas u es and yield inc eases. De o es a ion is p ojec ed o con inue albei a a
slowe pace han in p e ious decades. La ge o es con e sions o pas u e a e p ojec ed, in
pa icula in he Amazon biome, la ge while mode a e o es es o a ion e o s ake place, in
pa icula in he Ma a A lan ica biome. I should be no ed ha he inc ease in soy a ea p ima ily
occu s h ough expansion o e pas u es, and ha he p ojec ed expansion o pas u e is much
la ge in ampli ude. While i may be conside ed ha pa o he pas u e inc ease may be
indi ec ly d i en by pas u e con e sions o soy, i emains a small con ibu o o pas u e-d i en
de o es a ion. I should be no ed ha hese ends conside he e ec s o key domes ic
in e en ions in B azil, such as he Amazon Soy Mo a o ium (limi ing soy expansion in he
Amazon Biome) and he Fo es Code (limi ing bu no ully elimina ing illegal de o es a ion, and
71
igge ing mode a e es o a ion e o s). A la ge sha e o he p ojec ed de o es a ion is
conside ed legal unde cu en B azilian de o es a ion egula ion.
This leads o a small educ ion in GHG emissions om he AFOLU sec o , p ima ily d i en by a
dec ease in land use change emissions pa ially compensa ed by an inc ease in GHG emissions
om li es ock p oduc ion. Concomi an ly, inc eases in he alue o p oduc ion a e p ojec ed, in
pa icula o soy, bu hese emain o a much lowe ampli ude han p ojec ed inc eases in
p oduc ion olume.
Ex inc ion isks om ag icul u al ac i i ies inc ease o aqua ic ecosys ems in B azil, in pa icula
due o eu ophica ion in he Ce ado biome. Fo e es ial ecosys ems, impac s om ag icul u e
sligh ly decline o hose associa ed wi h GHG emissions and land use change ( e lec ing he
slowing a es o de o es a ion and inc easing es o a ion e o s), bu inc ease o impac s
associa ed wi h land occupa ion (indica ing ha he land sec o is s ill leading o ne inc eases
in land-use change media ed e es ial biodi e si y loss).
Al hough a de ailed compa ison o he li e a u e would be ele an o aspec s such as China’s
and EU’s u u e demand o soy-based p oduc s, hese ends a e b oadly consis en wi h u u e
p ojec ions o business as usual scena ios (e.g., o SSP2 scena io (Popp e al., 2017)) and
medium- e m ag icul u al ou look (OECD/FAO, 2024), and simila s udies a he scale o B azil
(e.g., (So e oni e al., 2018)). Al hough i migh be ele an o conside addi ional global d i e s,
such as impac s om clima e change, hese a e no expec ed o lead o la ge changes in B azil’s
soy expo po en ial (Zilli e al., 2020).
Summa y. Ou business-as-usual scena io en ails a la ge expansion o soya p oduc ion in
B azil beyond 2020 le els, associa ed o a global inc ease in demand o soy-based p oduc s
(in pa icula in Asia) and a s eng hening o B azil dominance on he global ma ke o soy-
based p oduc s. This con ibu es o a u he inc ease in socio-economic ac i i y a he
expense o he en i onmen (including biodi e si y in B azil), al hough in B azil soy expansion
gene a es limi ed de o es a ion ( his emains a small con ibu ion o B azil de o es a ion),
and land-use change- ela ed en i onmen al losses mode a ely dec ease in speed as
compa ed o p e ious decades. While B azil expo s o soy-based p oduc s o he EU inc ease,
he EU ma ke sha e in B azil soya p oduc ion keeps dec easing.
Impac o al e na i e u u es o soy ma ke s
Th ee explo a i e scena ios cap u ing key sou ces o unce ain y o soy ma ke s ha e been
designed in D7.2. This includes scena ios ep esen ing a) a global ood sys em ans o ma ion
(i.e., he IAP scena io), c) an idealized ambi ious land conse a ion policy in B azil (i.e., he
ZNLB a scena io), and b) he po en ial long- e m implica ions o he ade dispu e be ween US
and China (i.e., he T .Dis scena io).
Global ood sys em sus ainabili y ansi ion
The IAP scena io assumes he global implemen a ion o a mix o demand-side (incl. die a y shi ,
was e educ ion), supply-side (e.g., sus ainable yield inc eases) and conse a ion (inc eased
72
p o ec ed a ea ex en and e ec i eness, land use planning) and es o a ion measu es. In his
scena io, he p ojec ed global p oduc ion and ade o li es ock p oduc s and eed c ops (incl.
soy) by 2050 d ops compa ed o he SSP2. This leads o a much mo e limi ed inc ease in ne
expo s o soy- ela ed p oduc s om B azil (+20% ins ead o +76%). Ne expo s o soy-based
p oduc s o he EU dec ease compa ed o 2020 le els, while mos o he impo ing egions
main ain o al impo s le els sligh ly abo e 2020 le els. This scena io is p ojec ed o lead o
decline in all en i onmen al impac s bu also en ail impo an socio-economic ade-o s, wi h
la ge dec eases in he alue o li es ock p oduc ion, p ima ily as a esul o changes in consume
p e e ences.
In B azil, a signi ican amoun o pas u e is es o ed, while o es and o he na u al land losses
a e pa ially mi iga ed, as compa ed o he SSP2 scena io. Land-use change becomes a la ge
ca bon sink, and he biodi e si y impac s o local ag icul u e on bo h aqua ic and e es ial
ecosys ems a e la gely educed. Howe e , i leads o signi ican o gone economic oppo uni ies
o a me s, wi h he alue o ag icul u al p oduc ion declining om 2050 bu also om 2020
le els. Dec eases a e pa icula ly la ge (mo e han -50% as compa ed o 2020 le els) o li es ock
p oduc ion. Dec eases a e e y mode a e o o he c ops excep o OSA, while o soy, and in
pa icula soy in B azil, he alue o p oduc ion dec ease compa ed o 2020 le els.
Ambi ious conse a ion in B azil
En o cing ze o con e sion o o es and o he na u al lands o ag icul u e in B azil om 2020 (as
assumed in he ZNLB a scena io) only leads o a sligh ly lowe pos -2020 g ow h in he
p oduc ion and ade o li es ock and soy p oduc s compa ed o he SSP2, and he e o e on
ag icul u al and land use ends in he es o he wo ld. The hal ing o land con e sion leads o
a d op in LUC emissions, and educed biodi e si y impac s on bo h aqua ic and e es ial
ecosys ems compa ed o he SSP2. Howe e , biodi e si y impac s emain highe han in he IAP
scena io, which also conside s land es o a ion and supply and demand-side measu es. On he
o he hand, he alue o p oduc ion is p ojec ed o no be signi ican ly a ec ed in he ZNL
scena io, in con as o he s a k declines p ojec ed in he IAP scena io, p ima ily in he li es ock
sec o , bu also in he soy sec o .
This sugges s ha B azil could keep supplying domes ic and wo ld ma ke s wi hou clea ing
o es and o he na u al lands, he eby pu suing bo h en i onmen al and economic goals, in
pa icula h ough mobilizing pas u e o soy p oduc ion. Howe e , he same pas u eland is also
p ojec ed o be es o ed in he scena io pu suing ambi ious biodi e si y goals, wi h clea
bene i s in e ms o clima e mi iga ion. In such a scena io, he a e o B azilian pas u es he e o e
appea s a he cen e o po en ial con lic s be ween economic and en i onmen al goals, while
economic oppo uni ies loss would eme ge om a shi in global consump ion pa e ns, wi h
po en ially la ge implica ions o li es ock p oduce s. The e migh be a oom o scena ios wi h
mo e mode a e changes in consump ion pa e ns in B azil, and a mix o es o a ion and
sus ainable in ensi ica ion o he li es ock sec o (Cohn e al., 2014; De Oli ei a Sil a e al.,
2018).
Long- e m impac s o he US-China ade dispu e
73
As compa ed o o he al e na i e scena ios, he long- e m impac s he US-China ade dispu e
migh be limi ed. In his scena io we assume he ade dispu e o esul in a long- e m dec ease
in US soy expo s o China, capped a maximum 75% o hei 2020 le els. This scena io leads o
some inc ease in soy p oduc ion and ade in B azil compa ed o he 2050 SSP2, a pa e n e y
simila o he sho - e m impac s obse ed in esponse o he ade shocks in he ecen yea s.
Howe e , we p ojec ed his scena io o ha e no impac on de o es a ion, wi h an only sligh ly
highe inc ease soy a ea (mos ly a he expense o pas u e in he Ce ado biome) o e 2020-
2050 as compa ed o he SSP2 scena io. We ound no signi ican impac o his scena io on
B azil-le el p ojec ed biodi e si y impac s on aqua ic and e es ial ecosys ems as compa ed o
he SSP2 scena io.
In e es ingly, we ound he sho all in USA soya expo s o China o be edis ibu ed o o he
expo des ina ion only o a e y limi ed ex en , and he B azil expo s o o he des ina ions han
China o be e y li le a ec ed. Al hough la ge e o s om he USA o de elop al e na i e soya
expo ma ke s could be assumed, his e lec s ha o e all, he in e na ional ma ke o soy-
based p oduc s o become e y compe i i e and al hough sligh ly inc easing i s su plus, he USA
is p ojec ed o become a less impo an playe . In such a con ex , i will be di icul o soy
p oduce s in he USA o eco e om sho - e m d ops in expo oppo uni ies, which migh
en ail long- e m isks.
I should be acknowledged ha he e is conside able unce ain y in he long- e m impac s om
he US-China ade dispu e, and a b oade ange o assump ions migh be wo h es ing. I
should also be no ed ha ou esul s e lec wo di e en aspec s o he baseline scena io: i s ,
soy expo s om B azil, in pa icula o China, a e p ojec ed o al eady massi ely inc ease in he
baseline scena io, while expo s om he USA o China a e p ojec ed o unde go limi ed
inc eases. This makes bo h he assumed China soya impo sho all, and he po en ial addi ional
expo oppo uni ies o B azil soya bean o China, limi ed by 2050 in ela i e e ms. Second,
his assumes ha ha al hough only pa ially limi ing de o es a ion, domes ic in e en ions in
B azil such as he Amazon Soy Mo a o ium and he Fo es Code a e in place. Should his no be
he case, he soy p oduc ion and expo de elopmen in B azil lead o highe a es o
de o es a ion in scena ios wi h high demand o soya expo s.
Summa y. Ou scena ios o al e na i e u u es o soy ma ke s p o ide wo impo an
insigh s. Fi s , a long- e m d op in US expo s o soy-based p oduc s would ha e limi ed
impac s ou side o he USA. Assuming a pe manen d op in US soy expo s o China below
75% o 2020 le els is p ojec ed o ha e limi ed impac s on bo h global ma ke s and B azilian
ecosys ems. While mos o he China impo gap is co e ed by B azil, he gap is ep esen s a
small addi ion o he inc ease in expo s om B azil o China p ojec ed be ween 2020 and
2050 in he SSP2 scena io (while ha o US a e p ojec ed o s abilize), and i is gene a ed in
B azil by a sligh ly highe con e sion o pas u es wi hou signi ican addi ional de o es a ion
o biodi e si y loss. Second, u u e economic oppo uni ies o he B azilian soy sec o seem
compa ible wi h ambi ious p o ec ion o ecosys ems in B azil, bu a odd wi h a highe sha e
o plan -based p oduc s in die s globally. The p ojec ed inc eases in he alue and olume o
p oduc ion and expo s o he soy sec o in B azil a e no nega i ely a ec ed i assuming
conse a ion e o s in B azil ha a e well beyond cu en ambi ion le els (i.e., no con e sion
o any na u al ecosys em, be i o es ed o no , as pic u ed in he ZNL scena io), while unde
80
chain g eening in main soy impo e s like China. On he o he hand, he EUDR could ail a
ele a ing global soy supply chain g eening ambi ions and igge a weakening o land use
egula ions in B azil: we p ojec such a scena io o gene a e con as ed land use ajec o ies
in B azil, including a edi ec ion ag icul u al land p essu e om he Ce ado o he Amazon
biome, wi h mode a ely highe accumula ed de o es a ion a coun y le el, and unce ain bu
po en ially nega i e biodi e si y impac s (especially i phenomenon like land g abbing,
unde es ima ed by ou model, would be exace ba ed). These esul s e lec he ac ha EU
ma ke sha es in B azil will con inue declining, and he o e all impac o EU in e en ions will
p ima ily depend on how o he key ac o s (like B azil and China).
Second, e en i mo e e ec i ely cu bing EU impo s o soy-based p oduc s om B azil,
al e na i e EU in e en ions may no necessa ily achie e be e biodi e si y impac
educ ions in B azil, and could ha e con as ed en i onmen al and economic impac s. Ou
scena ios include subs i u ing he EUDR wi h ei he an EU biodi e si y bo de adjus men
mechanism, o ambi ious EU e o s o educe was e and pa ially subs i u e animal-based
p oduc s by plan -based p oduc s in human die s. Al hough all h ee in e en ions a e
men ioned as po en ial le e s o educe he en i onmen al impac s om EU consump ion, i
should be no ed ha hese in e en ions a e no di ec ly compa able in e ms o goals and
ambi ions. We ind ha bo h he EU biodi e si y bo de adjus men mechanism scena io and
he EU demand-side e o s could lead o signi ican educ ions (>30%) in he EU impo s o
soy om B azil, and ha e en in such a case, soy leakage o o he egions (e.g., ealloca ion
o egone B azil expo s o o he des ina ion) o no be signi ican . The EU demand-side e o
scena io would deli e educ ions in en i onmen al impac s in EU (mode a e) and BRA (small)
o bo h e es ial and eshwa e ecosys ems, while he EU bo de adjus men mechanism
scena io would lead o a small dec ease in impac s on BRA eshwa e ecosys ems and, due
o inc eases in EU impo s o US soy-based p oduc s and global ma ke ealloca ions (ano he
o m o leakage), no change in impac s on BRA e es ial ecosys ems and an inc ease impac s
on NAM eshwa e ecosys ems. Gains in en i onmen al impac s in B azil o he EU demand-
side e o we e howe e small as compa ed o po en ial gains om a ‘EUDR + global
alignmen o soy supply chains on ambi ious conse a ion in B azil’ scena io (see p e ious
summa y box). Impac s on u u e economic oppo uni ies o soy p oduce s we e also
con as ed ac oss al e na i e in e en ions. On he one hand, he EU demand-side scena io
pic u es losses in u u e economic oppo uni ies o soy p oduce s in all majo soya
p oduc ion egions (and li es ock p oduce s in he EU), al hough mode a e due o he low soy
ma ke sha es o he EU. On he o he hand, he EU biodi e si y bo de adjus men
mechanism scena io bene i s he alue o p oduc ion o EU and NAM soy p oduce s while
limi ing losses in alue o p oduc ion o BRA p oduce s, while he EUDR scena io a o s BRA
p oduce s o e o he p oduce s (including he EU). O e all, his implies ha an e ec i e
educ ion o biodi e si y loss om EU impo s o soy-based p oduc s migh be challenging o
achie e, ha di e en app oaches (e.g., EUDR, EU biodi e si y bo de adjus men mechanism
o EU demand-side measu es) could ha e con as ed impac s on economic oppo uni ies o
soy p oduce s o a ious egions, and ha he mos e ec i e way o educe impo ed
biodi e si y loss (demand-side measu es) migh ha e nega i e economic impac s o soy
p oduce s in all egions.
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Fo es supply chains
Resul s
Resul s o ci cula bioeconomy scena ios
Round wood ha es olumes
In he ci cula bioeconomy scena ios (CIR), ha es olumes a e conside ably lowe han in
scena ios wi hou he ci cula bioeconomy (Figu e 18). Hence, ci cula bioeconomy allows o
ma ch inc eased woody-biomass demand wi hou he need o inc ease ha es olumes and
o es esou ces use.
Figu e 18. Global oundwood ha es olumes in Mm3/yea
In he high demand scena io wi h plan a ions and ci cula bioeconomy (PLA&CIR BIO&CON),
plan a ion o es s expansion and ha es s emain lowe le el han in he high demand scena io
wi hou ci cula economy (PLA BIO&CON) (Figu e 19). This means ha ci cula bioeconomy is a
cos -e icien supply chain solu ion compa ed o plan a ion o es s.
In he high demand scena io wi h plan a ions (PLA BIO&CON), bioeconomy expansion mos ly
bene i s Asia, A ica and La in Ame ica, because hey ha e highe plan a ion po en ial han
adi ional o es indus y egions (i.e., EU, No h Ame ica and Fo me So je Union). In he high
demand scena ios wi h ci cula economy (CIR BIO&CON, PLA&CIR BIO&CON), we do no obse e
his e ec . Hence, ci cula bioeconomy bene i s ela i ely mo e adi ional o es indus y
egions.
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Figu e 19. Global oundwood ha es olumes by egion and o es ype (Mm3/y )
Wood-based p oduc s ne expo s
Ne expo s o adi ional o es indus y egions (i.e., EU, No h Ame ica and
Fo me So je Union) a e highe in he ci cula bioeconomy scena ios han in o he scena ios
(Figu e 20). No h Ame ica bene i s less om he ci cula bioeconomy han o he adi ional
o es indus y egions, because i elies mo e on i gin ibe p oduc ion han on ecycling. The
ci cula economy also bene i s Asia and A ica by dec easing hei ne expo s, bu La in Ame ica
ends o lose i s compe i i e ad an age, which is based on plan a ions expansion.
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Figu e 20. Wood-based p oduc s ne expo s (Mm3/y RWeq)
Fo es ca bon balance
The plan a ion o es s and ci cula bioeconomy scena ios (PLA BIO&CON, CIR BIO&CON,
PLA&CIR BIO&CON) lead o highe o es ca bon s ock and sink han scena ios based on na u al
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85
o es s logging and linea supply chain solu ions (BIO&CON). This is ue ega dless o whe he
we conside biogenic ca bon in o es s (Figu e 21) o also include biogenic ca bon ou side o es s
(Figu e 22). Ci cula bioeconomy leads o highe biogenic ca bon s o age han plan a ion o es s,
which is caused by lowe o e all ha es s in he ci cula economy. The highes biogenic ca bon
s o age is achie ed in he scena io which combines ci cula bioeconomy and plan a ion o es s
(PLA&CIR BIO&CON).
Figu e 21. Fo es ca bon s o age (PgC) and sink (M CO2/y ) including only he biogenic ca bon ha s ays in o es s
(F)
Figu e 22. Fo es ca bon s o age (PgC) and sink (M CO2/y ) including biogenic ca bon ha s ays in o es s (F) and
biogenic ca bon ha is s o ed ou side o es s (HWP and BECCS)
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86
Biodi e si y
Biodi e si y loss is measu ed as in D6.2 by he Po en ial Disappea ed F ac ion o global species
agg ega ed o e all di e en axa (PDF %). Biodi e si y loss is lowe in he plan a ion o es s and
ci cula bioeconomy scena ios han in scena ios based on na u al o es s logging and linea
supply chain solu ions scena ios (Figu e 23). Ci cula bioeconomy leads o lowe biodi e si y
loss han plan a ion o es s, which is caused by lowe o e all ha es s in he ci cula economy.
Lowe ha es olumes dec ease he impac o na u al o es and plan a ions p oduc ion use on
biodi e si y loss (Figu e 24).
Figu e 23. Global biodi e si y loss in PDF%
Figu e 24. Global biodi e si y loss in PDF% di ided in o di e en land-uses
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87
Resul s o EU Biodi e si y S a egy scena ios
Round wood ha es olumes
The EUBDS dec eases EU27 ha es olumes by up o 34 Mm3/y in 2100 (o -6%) compa ed o
he business-as-usual scena io (Figu e 25).
Figu e 25. EU27 oundwood ha es olumes in Mm3/yea
Wood-based p oduc s ne expo s
The EUBDS also leads o dec ease in EU27 ne expo s, which a e 39 Mm3/y below he
baseline le el in 2100 (co esponding o a 35% decline om BASE le els) (Figu e 26).
Figu e 26. EU 27 ne expo s (Mm3/yea RWeq)
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Fo es ca bon balance
The EUBDS inc eases EU27 o es ca bon s o age by 0.4 pe ag ams o ca bon (PgC), bu HWP
and BECCS s o age dec eases by 0.1 PgC and e e se subs i u ion s o age by 0.25 PgC (Figu e
27). The e o e, he o e all impac o he EUBDS on EU27 o al o es sec o ca bon balance is
ma ginal, leading o an inc ease o 0.05 PgC compa ed o he business-as-usual scena io.
Figu e 27. EU27 o es sec o ca bon balance
Biodi e si y
The EUBDS dec eases EU27 o al biodi e si y loss, bu his e ec is small compa ed o he
biodi e si y bene i s o c opland abandonmen and a o es a ion (Figu e 28). Mo eo e , he
EUBDS is no able o s op he inc ease in biodi e si y loss o e ime in na u al o es s, which is
mainly caused by inc eased ha es s and managemen in ensi ica ion in he unp o ec ed o es
a ea. Consequen ly, he EUBDS would equi e addi ional measu es such as es o a ion o s op
biodi e si y loss in na u al o es s.
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89
Figu e 28. EU27 biodi e si y loss in PDF%
Resul s o B azil es o a ion scena ios
Land use change
In he es o a ion scena ios (i.e., NAT RESTORE, MIX RESTORE, and PLA RESTORE), he es o ed
a ea inc eases by up o 124 Mha in 2100 (Figu e 29). Res o a ion leads o a co esponding
dec ease in c opland, g assland and abandoned land. In he non- es o a ion scena io (NO
RESTORE), es o ed a ea emains a 39 Mha in 2100. De o es a ion is highe in he non-
es o a ion scena io as he e is no de o es a ion con ol (ca bon p ice=0), which leads o an
addi ional inc ease in c opland and g assland.
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96
30% p o ec ion a ge does no equi e much addi ional p o ec ion e o s, 2) he EU27 o es
sec o can easily adap o he educed domes ic ha es po en ial by dec easing i s ne expo s,
eplacing woody biomass use o ene gy by ene gy c ops and in ensi ying o es managemen in
he non-p o ec ed a eas, and 3) he posi i e impac o he EUBDS on o es ca bon s ock is o se
by educed HWP ca bon pool and e e se subs i u ion e ec s. Mo eo e , he EUBDS is no able
o s op he inc ease in biodi e si y loss in na u al o es s, which calls o complemen a y
measu es such as es o a ion.
B azil land es o a ion policy
Fou scena ios ha e been designed o analyze he po en ial impac s o di e en ypes o land
es o a ion policy in B azil, namely: a) a baseline scena io conside ing he es o a ion o
deg aded ag icul u al land and abandoned land o na u al o es s, which a e managed o
ca bon s o age and biodi e si y (i.e., NAT RESTORE), b) a coun e ac ual scena io conside ing no
land es o a ion policy in B azil (i.e., NO RESTORE), c) a scena io conside ing he es o a ion o
deg aded ag icul u al land and abandoned land o plan a ion o es s, which a e managed o
oundwood p oduc ion (i.e., PLA RESTORE), and d) a scena io conside ing he es o a ion o
deg aded ag icul u al land and abandoned land o plan a ion o es s, which a e managed o
bo h oundwood p oduc ion and ca bon s o age and biodi e si y (i.e., MIX RESTORE).
Ou esul s sugges ha es o a ion policy - independen ly o he es o a ion ype - is always
be e han no es o a ion policy om a ca bon s o age and biodi e si y pe spec i e. F om a
biodi e si y pe spec i e, es o a ion based on na u al o es s is clea ly a be e op ion han
es o a ion based on mul i unc ional o p oduc ion plan a ions. On he o he hand, om a
ca bon s o age pe spec i e, he e is no much di e ence be ween di e en es o a ion policies.
The eason is ha he lowe o es ca bon s o age in plan a ions scena ios is compensa ed by
highe ca bon s o age ou side o es s (i.e., HWP and BECCS).
Aquacul u e & aqua eed supply chains
Resul s
Demand o inal blue ood p oduc s
P ojec ions o he inal demand o blue ood p oduc s a e p esen ed in Figu e 34, wi h di e en
ime ho izons o he SSP2 scena io (2010, 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050), and 2050 alues o
o he scena ios.
In he SSP2 scena io, he global demand o ish inal p oduc s emains ela i ely s able o
sligh ly inc eases (i.e., salmonoids SALM, less han +15%) be ween 2020 and 2050 o mos
p oduc s, wi h a ew excep ions. On he one hand, some p oduc s a e p ojec ed o unde go a
mo e signi ican inc ease in global demand, o example eshwa e (FRSH, +51%) and sh imps
& p awns (SHRI, +37%), e en hough hei demand inc ease a lowe speed han in ecen
decades (e.g., +51% o e 2020-2050 s +41% o e 2010-2020). This is compa ible wi h
p ojec ions om o he s udies (e.g. (Naylo e al., 2021)), wi h he le el o wild ca ch expec ed
o s abilize. Coun ies om Eas e n Asia (EAS, including China) a e expec ed o emain he
97
la ges consume s o eshwa e and c us acean p oduc s and unde go mode a e demand
g ow h, while coun ies om Sou h (SAS, e.g., India), Sou h-Eas Asia (SEA) o Sub-Saha an A ica
a e p ojec ed o expe ience a la ge ela i e inc ease by 2050. Fo some wild ca ch-based ish
p oduc s (e.g., pelagic ishes PELG, deme sal ishes DMRS, ma ine ishes MARN, unas TUNA),
he globally s able demand hides mo e con as ed changes a he egional le el, wi h demand
o en inc easing in Sub-Saha an A ica (SSA) and dec easing in Eas e n Asia (EAS). On he o he
hand, demand o ish meal and ish oil a e expec ed o dec ease subs an ially o e he 2020-
2050 pe iod, by abou 90% and 75%, espec i ely. This ollows he assumed p olonga ion o
ecen ends in ed aquacul u e in e ms o eed con e sion e iciency gains and subs i u ion o
ish meal and ish oil eed by c op-based eed. Mos o he ends in inal p oduc s a e ela ed
o ood use and o some ex en o he uses, excep o ish meal and ish oil, ha a e used o
eed.
In o he scena ios, he ends ollow he SSP2 scena io, wi h a ew excep ions:
• Fi s , in he BFS20 coun e ac ual scena io, demand emains by design cons an a 2020
le els a e 2020.
• Second, in he UNFEDAC20 sensi i i y scena io, he capaci y o un ed aquacul u e
sys ems is assumed o emain cons an a 2020 le els a e 2020, leading o lowe
demand by 2050 o some p oduc s ( eshwa e ishes FRSH, c us aceans CRST, sh imps
and p awns SHRI). The di e ence o he SSP2 demand by 2050 o hese p oduc s
e lec s he deg ee o which hey ely on un ed aquacul u e sys ems: high o CRST (2050
demand is close o 2020 le els and well below SSP2 le els), mode a e o FRSH and SHRI
(2050 demand is close o SSP2 le els and well abo e 2020 le els).
• Mo eo e , as opposed o he SSP2 scena io, he demand o ish meal (FSHM) and ish
oil (FSHO) inc eases o highe le els han 2020 o he AF20 and AFCOMPO20 sensi i i y
scena ios. This esul s om he assumed cons an sha e o ish meal and ish oil in
aqua eed equi emen s pe uni o ou pu ( ixed a 2020 le els, o bo h scena ios), and
cons an o al aqua eed equi emen s pe uni o ou pu ( ixed a 2020 le els, o he
AF20 scena io). This highligh s he impo ance o he expec ed p olonga ion o ecen
ends in aquacul u e eeding p ac ices (in e ms o e iciency and aqua eed
composi ion) in shaping u u e demands o ish-based aqua eed, in he con ex o
g owing demand o aquacul u e p oduc s.
• In he BFDIET scena io, he demand o mollusks-based p oduc s (MLSC) is close o
abou wice as la ge by 2050, while he demand o eshwa e -based p oduc s (FRSH)
is abou 20% lowe . These ends e lec scena io assump ions and ep esen he la ges
de ia ion om he BAU scena io ac oss all scena ios (excep o BF20), he eby
highligh ing he impo ance o die a y assump ions.
• In he SUSFISH scena io, he demand o se e al p oduc s ha a e p ima ily supplied
h ough ishe ies (CEPH, TUNA, MARN, DMRS, MARN) inc ease by abou 15%. These
ends e lec scena io assump ions and ep esen he la ges de ia ion om he BAU
scena io ac oss all scena ios. This implies ha a la ge supply o hese p oduc s could
easily be me by demand, and highligh s he impo ance o sus ainable ishe ies
managemen o a oid o e ishing.
98
Figu e 34 - P ojec ions o demand o blue ood inal p oduc s o ood, eed and o he use (i.e., excluding inpu o
educ ion sec o ) by p oduc , agg ega ed o en wo ld egions.
P ima y blue ood p oduc supply and aqua eed use
Global-scale p ojec ions o p ima y ish p oduc s supply by sou ce (ca ch, ed and un ed
aquacul u e) and c op aqua eed equi emen s (by c op) a e p esen ed in Figu e 35. By
assump ion, mos o he supply inc ease is p ojec ed o be sou ced om ed aquacul u e. In he
SSP2 scena io, he o al supply o p ima y blue ood p oduc s is expec ed o con inue inc easing,
bu a a slowe pace han in ecen pas . I inc eases om 169 million ons (M ) in 2020 o 210
M by 2050 (+24%, oughly equal o he ela i e inc ease om 2010 o 2020). This ansla es
in o a 57% inc ease in ed aquacul u e supply ( om 50 M in 2020 o 78 M in 2050) and a 45%
inc ease in un ed aquacul u e ( om 29 M in 2020 o 41 M in 2050). These ends emain below
( o ed aquacul u e) o nea ing ( o un ed aquacul u e) 2010-2020 a es o inc ease (+87% o
ed aquacul u e, +18% o un ed aquacul u e). These p ojec ions a e quali a i ely compa able
o hose om he OECD-FAO Ou look 2024-2033 (OECD/FAO, 2024).
P ojec ions o p ima y ish supply by 2050 o o he scena ios a e simila o he ones o he SSP2
scena io, excep o ou scena ios. Fo he BFS20 coun e ac ual scena io, supply emains, by
assump ion, cons an a 2020 le els o all h ee sou ces. Fo he UNFEDAC20 sensi i i y
scena io, un ed aquacul u e supply emains by assump ion cons an a 2020 le els, leading o a
sligh ly highe inc eases in ed aquacul u e (+59% o e 2020-2050, ins ead o +57% in he SSP2
scena io), e lec ing he limi ed subs i u ion op ions o CRST and SHRI p oduc g oups, o which
he demand is p ojec ed o be lowe han in he SSP2 scena io (see Figu e 34). Fo he BFDIET
99
scena io, he subs i u ion in consume p e e ences lead o a sligh ly lowe ( esp. highe ) inc ease
in ed ( esp. un ed) aquacul u e supply o e he 2020-2050 pe iod han in he baseline, and a
lowes inc ease in ed aquacul u e ac oss all scena ios (excep BF20). Fo he SUSFISH scena io,
he assumed inc eased ca ch capaci y leads o highe inc eases in ca ch le el, and sligh ly lowe
inc eases in un ed aquacul u e, and o some ex en , ed aquacul u e.
As illus a ed in Figu e 35b, we p ojec an inc ease in c op-based aqua eed equi emen s in he
SSP2 scena io o e 2020-2050, om 79 M in 2020 o abou 100 M in 2050. This ep esen s a
40% inc ease o e his pe iod, which is lowe han he g ow h in aquacul u e supply (+57%). This
indica es ha he assumed inc ease in eed con e sion e iciency is p ojec ed o bu e he
u u e inc ease in demand o aqua eed, despi e he assumed u he subs i u ion o ishmeal
and ish oil by c op-based aqua eed. The AF20 and AFCOMPO20 scena ios allow disen angling
hese wo ac o s: he inc ease in o al c op aqua eed equi emen s would mo e closely ollow
aquacul u e supply inc ease i bo h he composi ion and he e iciency o eeding p ac ices
emained cons an a 2020 le els (AF20 scena io, +53%), bu would be sligh ly lowe han in he
SSP2 i he sha e o c ops in aqua eed did no inc ease beyond 2020 le els bu e iciency gains
s ill occu (AFCOMPO20 scena io, +35%). I should also be no ed ha be ween 2020 and 2050,
he p ojec ed inc ease in c op-aqua eed is o a lowe ampli ude han he p ojec ed dec ease in
ish meal and ish oil. The main eason o his is ha c op aqua eed al eady ep esen s a high
sha e o o al ed aquacul u e equi emen s by 2020, and he impac o addi ional subs i u ion
is less s ong han u u e ends in demand o aquacul u e p oduc s and aquacul u e eed
con e sion e iciencies.
Excep o he BF20 scena io, o al c op eed equi emen s a e lowes in he BFDIET scena io by
2050, and only sligh ly lowe han in he BAU scena io o he SUSFISH scena io. This con i ms
he impo ance o die a y choices o he o e all de elopmen o ed aquacul u e, and a small
po en ial o inc eased ca ch le els o mode a e he u u e g ow h in aquacul u e.
By assump ion, he p opo ion o a ious c ops in o al c op-based aqua eed di e s ac oss
egions bu emains cons an o e he di e en ime ho izons and scena ios, excep o he
AFCOMPOCROPMIX scena io. In his simple sensi i i y scena io, he assumed subs i u ion o
50% o co n and soya aqua eed equi emen s in China by whea leads o a ma kedly lowe
inc ease in eed equi emen s (+28%, ins ead o +40% in he same pe iod), p ima ily due o he
highe c ude p o ein con en o whea compa ed o co n. While his scena io was designed as a
simplis ic illus a ion o aqua eed c op mix change a he han as a ealis ic u u e e olu ion, i
illus a es ha ela ed assump ions can be as impo an as ha o o he eeding p ac ices
aspec s such as eed con e sion e iciencies and he sha e o ish meal and ish oil.
100
Figu e 35 - P ojec ions a global scale o a) o al blue ood p ima y p oduc s supply by sou ce and b) c op-based
aqua eed used by c op.
Land use and biodi e si y impac s om c op aqua eed
equi emen s
As shown in Figu e 36a, he c ops used as aqua eed ep esen a small sha e o global c op
p oduc ion p ojec ed by 2050: up o 3% o whea , 5% o co n and 6% o soya. This sha e is
p ojec ed o emain ela i ely s able be ween 2020 and 2050 o mos c ops and ac oss he
di e en scena ios, excep o he AFCROPOCROPMIX scena io (highe sha es o whea , and
lowe sha es o co n and soya), he coun e ac ual BFS20 scena io (dec ease o all c ops, by
design) and he BFDIET scena io (dec ease o all c ops, ela ed o a mode a ion o ed
aquacul u e g ow h). This means ha he demand o c op aqua eed p oduc s is no p ojec ed
o inc ease as e han he demand o o he uses o c ops, and migh e en inc ease mo e
mode a ely han o he demands unde scena ios wi h a highe sha e o un ed aquacul u e-
based p oduc s in die s. The AFCOMPOCROPMIX scena io is a simpli ied expe imen pic u ing
changes in he ela i e con ibu ion o a ious c ops o o al c op-based aqua eed, only o one
coun y (China). And ye , a he indi idual c op le el, i di e s ma kedly om o he scena ios by
2050, which highligh s he impo ance ha c op aqua eed composi ion assump ions ha e on
land use impac s om aquacul u e de elopmen .
As displayed in Figu e 36b, he o e all demand o ag icul u al p oduc s d i es an expansion o
ag icul u al land co e s (c opland and g assland) om 2020 o 2050 o abou 300 million
hec a es, a he expense o o es and – in la ge p opo ion – o he na u al ege a ion.
Di e ences ac oss scena ios, including o he coun e ac ual BFS20 scena io, a e ba ely
no iceable in Figu e 36b, indica ing ha he impac s o u he aqua eed demand play a e y
ma ginal ole in p ojec ed land use expansion globally be ween 2020 and 2050.
101
Al oge he , esul s displayed in Figu e 36 highligh ha he p ojec ed u u e c op aqua eed
equi emen s will occu concomi an ly o much la ge changes o he ag icul u al and land use
sys ems. While u u e inc eases in c op aqua eed demand may lead o land use-media ed
e es ial biodi e si y loss, i indica es ha hese may only ep esen a small sha e o u u e
e es ial biodi e si y losses om he ag icul u al sec o . I also poin s o he necessi y o using
dynamic modelling ools o unde s and such impac s Indeed, he impac o addi ional demand
may be e y di e en om hose in e ed om he cu en s a e o he ag icul u e and land use
sec o s, due o expec ed concomi an changes in he land use, p oduc i i y, p oduc ion, demand
and ade ac oss egions. Using he GLOBIOM model enables o p o iding an es ima e o u u e
dynamics in ag icul u e and land uses sys ems, agains which he speci ic impac s o inc eased
c op aqua eed equi emen s can be es ima ed. In addi ion, by compa ing p oduc ion, land use
o biodi e si y impac s om a ious scena ios o a coun e ac ual scena io in which all
componen s o he blue ood sec o emain ixed a 2020 le els (BFS20 scena io), we can
diagnose p ecisely he impac o pos -2020 changes in c op aqua eed equi emen s, on op o
hese b oade ends in he ag icul u al and land use sys ems.
Figu e 36 - P ojec ions a global scale o a) he sha e c op aqua eed ep esen s in o al c op supply (%) and b) he
ne di e ence o 2000 in he ex en o a ious land co e s.
Figu e 37 p o ides he di e ence be ween he coun e ac ual scena io BFS20 and o he
scena ios by 2050, o c op aqua eed equi emen s, changes o he na u al land co e , and
e es ial biodi e si y impac s om land occupa ion.
When i comes o c op aqua eed equi emen s (le panel), Figu e 37 con i ms he di e ences
ac oss scena ios in o al c op aqua eed equi emen s shown in Figu e 35b, bu also highligh s
ha addi ional c op aqua eed demand occu s in EAS (including China), SAS and SEA egions,
whe e addi ional ed aquacul u e p oduc ion akes place. Howe e , as sugges ed by he middle
panel, due o he ade dependencies o hese egions, land use in ensi ica ion and o he ma ke
knock-on e ec s, La in Ame ica and he Ca ibbean (LAC) appea as a ho spo o na u al land loss
associa ed wi h c op aqua eed p oduc ion, in pa icula o soya and co n, o a lowe ex en .
102
Impac s in EAS and SAS emain high bu ep esen a lowe p opo ion o global impac s o
na u al land loss han o inc eased c op aqua eed demand, while o some ex en NAM, MEN
and EUR show he opposi e ends. The spa ial pa e ns o global na u al land loss om c op
aqua eed equi emen s a e ela i ely simila ac oss scena ios, excep o he
AFCOMPOCROPMIX and BFDIET scena ios, o which na u al land losses a e much lowe (o e en
e e sed, o SSA and SEA) in EAS whe e he educed o al c op aqua eed equi emen occu s,
bu also in LAC whe e expo demand o soya and co n, o some ex en – is educed, and SSA
(whe e no addi ional aqua eed is equi ed, bu na u al land losses o c op p oduc ion o o he
pu poses migh be a oided ia inc eased impo s om o he egions) and SEA (whe e aqua eed
a e p oduced). These ade-media ed e ec s, and he ac ha he scena io ha minimizes
aqua eed c op equi emen s and ela ed na u al land ou comes di e s ac oss egions (e.g.,
AFCOMPOCROPMIX o LAC, BFDIET o SSA and SEA) highligh s he complexi ies o in e na ional
c op supply chains.
The biodi e si y impac s ( igh panel), howe e , illus a es ha he ansla ion o losses in
na u al land o e es ial biodi e si y impac s (in e ms o global ex inc ion isks) om land
occupa ion is no di ec , mainly due o a ia ions a na ional o subna ional scales in species
ichness and le el o endemism, i s sensi i i y o a ious land uses, and in land use change
pa e ns. Fo example, while he AFCOMPOCROPMIX scena io leads in LAC o compa able
sa ings (as compa ed o he SSP2 scena io) in e ms biodi e si y loss and na u al land loss, in
he same egion sa ings in he AFCOMPO20 scena io (as compa ed o he SSP2 scena io) a e
much highe o biodi e si y han o na u al land loss. While we ound LAC o be a clea ho spo
o biodi e si y loss om u u e aquacul u e de elopmen due o i s expo -o ien ed ag icul u al
sec o , ac ual impac s on biodi e si y may be pa icula ly sensi i e o how addi ional c op
p oduc ion is achie ed. In addi ion, he sha e o SAS and SEA egions combined in global
addi ional losses o e es ial biodi e si y (as compa ed o he BFS20 scena io) is o en close o
50% o e en highe o he SSP2, AFCOMPO20, AF20 and UNFEDAC20 scena ios. Ye , o hese
scena ios, he sha e o hese wo egions combined in global addi ional na u al land loss (as
compa ed o he BFS20 scena io) is o en less han 33%. Simila ly, he ela i ely small na u al
land gains in SEA in he BFDIET scena io lead o compa a i ely la ge educ ions in biodi e si y
impac s. This ein o ces he impo ance o hese egions as ho spo s o biodi e si y loss om
u u e aquacul u e de elopmen . No only would he local demand o c op aqua eed inc ease
in hese egions (unless demand o eshwa e p oduc s is mode a ed by die shi s owa ds
un ed aquacul u e-based p oduc s), bu he local ecosys ems a e pa icula ly impo an o
biodi e si y (as measu ed in e ms o global ex inc ion isks).
103
Figu e 37 - Ne di e ence be ween he SSP2 and AF20 scena ios a e 2020, in c op aqua eed use (le panel,
million ons), ex en o na u al land co e (middle panel, million hec a es) and o al ex inc ion isks impac on
e es ial ecosys ems ( igh panel, po en ially disappea ed ac ion). The s acked ba s o di e en colou s
indica e he di e en wo ld egions agg ega ed om o iginal GLOBIOM egions.
Ni ogen losses om in ish aquacul u e
P ojec ed aquacul u e on- a m ni ogen was e om he ed aquacul u e o in ish species is
p esen ed in Figu e 38. The p ojec ed inc ease in ed aquacul u e p oduc ion is expec ed o
gene a e addi ional eac i e ni ogen losses, p ima ily o eshwa e species. In he SSP2
scena io, o al on-si e N was e in in ish aquacul u e is expec ed o g ow om 0.23 million ons
o ni ogen (M N) in 2020, o abou 0.31 M N by 2050 o he SSP2 scena io (i.e., +36% o e
2020-2050). Simila ly o o al c op aqua eed equi emen s displayed in Figu e 35b, alues
p ojec ed o he a ious sensi i i y scena ios show ha assuming cons an eeding p ac ices (in
e ms o e iciency and aqua eed composi ion) a 2020 le els would lead o signi ican ly highe
losses (+58% o e 2020-2050 o he AF20 scena io), while changes o he p opo ion o a ious
c ops in o al c op aqua eed equi emen s could also impac ni ogen was e (e.g., +22% o e
2020-2050). Changes in consume p e e ences owa ds un ed aquacul u e-based p oduc s, in
egions o high consump ion o eshwa e species-based p oduc s, would be he mos impac ul
measu e o mi iga e u u e inc eases in aquacul u e on- a m ni ogen was e.
104
Figu e 38 - P ojec ed ni ogen losses in in ish aquacul u e a global scale.
105
Discussion
The p ojec ions p esen ed in his deli e able explo e a ious ac o s ha migh a ec he
po en ial de elopmen s o he blue ood sec o , and hei impac s on e es ial biodi e si y
h ough inc eases in he use o c ops as an inpu o aquacul u e. The p ojec ions ely on a
baseline scena io depic ing a p olonga ion o his o ical ends, as well as addi ional scena ios
designed o isola e he impac o a ious assump ions (sensi i i y scena ios) o o p o ide a
coun e ac ual in which he blue ood sec o emains cons an a 2020 le el while he land use
and ag icul u al sec o ollow baseline ends.
One impo an d i e will be he p ojec ed u u e inc ease in he demand o blue ood p oduc s.
Ou BAU p ojec ions o popula ion and die a y p e e ences p ojec s a slowed bu p olonged
inc ease in blue ood p oduc s’ demand. The expec ed inc ease a ies ac oss p oduc s, pa ly
d i en by expec ed limi a ions in supply In pa icula , demand is p ojec ed o emain s able a
he global scale o p oduc s g oups based on wild ca ch (despi e inc eases and dec eases a
egional scale) bu o inc ease signi ican ly o p oduc s based on aquacul u e p oduc ion
sys ems (up o +51% o e 2020-2050 o eshwa e ish). The p ojec ed inc ease in demand is
pa icula ly impo an in Eas e n Asia (which cu en ly domina es eshwa e ish consump ion)
and in egions wi h signi ican u u e inc eases in popula ion, like Sou h Asia and Sub-Saha an
A ica. The demand o ish meal and ish oil is expec ed o con inue dec easing, unless his o ical
ends in aquacul u e eeding p ac ices (in e ms o o e all eeding e iciency and aqua eed
composi ion) do no con inue in he u u e. These ends a e consis en wi h o he s udies (e.g.,
(Naylo e al., 2021; OECD/FAO, 2024)). As compa ed o he esul s o CLEVER Deli e able D7.2,
he wo addi ional scena ios conside ed in his deli e able (i.e., he BFDIET and SUSFISH
scena ios) p o ide wo key addi ional insigh s. Fi s , any inc ease in ca ch le els is likely o be
me wi h demand, and sus ainable managemen o ishe ies would allow o mee highe
consump ion le els wi h lowe p essu es on ocean ecosys ems. Second, a ansi ion in consume
p e e ences owa ds un ed aquacul u e-based p oduc s o high nu i ional p o ile (e.g.,
mollusks) migh p o ide bo h ood secu i y and a oid en i onmen al impac s such as c op
aqua eed ela ed biodi e si y loss. Ou BFDIET scena io, combining such an assump ion wi h he
u u e echnological p og ess in eeding p ac ices al eady conside ed in he baseline scena io, is
he scena io wi h he leas inc eases in ed aquacul u e, and ela ed en i onmen al impac s.
Ano he impo an de e minan will be ends in he capaci y o a ious sou ces and eeding
p ac ices in aquacul u e. Re lec ing his o ical ends, ou baseline p ojec ions assume a s able
capaci y om wild ca ch, and a signi ican inc ease om un ed (+45% o e 2020-2050) and ed
(+57% o e 2020-2050) aquacul u e, al hough slowe han in ecen decades. Ou baseline
scena io also assumes u he inc eases in e iciency (i.e., dec eased in economic eed
con e sion a io) and change in aqua eed composi ion ( u he eplacemen o ish meal and
ish oil by c op-based aqua eeds) wi hin ed aquacul u e, as well as u he inc eases in he use
o ish was e in he educ ion o ish in o ish meal and ish oil. This leads o dec easing demand
o ish meal and ish oil, a dec ease in he ish educ ion- ela ed p essu e on ma ine and pelagic
species, and o mode a e inc eases in c op aqua eed equi emen s compa ed o p ojec ed
inc eases in eed aquacul u e supply (e.g., espec i ely +40% and +57% o e 2020-2050). As
compa ed o esul s om he CLEVER Deli e able D7.2, he addi ional scena ios conside ed in
his deli e able leads o one addi ional insigh . Assuming ha all ishe ies a e sus ainably
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