P o o naya, I. V.; Filimono a, I. V.; Ede , L. V.; Nemo , V. Y.; Zemnukho a, E. A.
A icle
Fo ma ion o ene gy policy in Eu ope, aking in o accoun
ends in he global ma ke
Ene gy Repo s
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Else ie
Sugges ed Ci a ion: P o o naya, I. V.; Filimono a, I. V.; Ede , L. V.; Nemo , V. Y.; Zemnukho a, E.
A. (2020) : Fo ma ion o ene gy policy in Eu ope, aking in o accoun ends in he global ma ke ,
Ene gy Repo s, ISSN 2352-4847, Else ie , Ams e dam, Vol. 6, Iss. 1, pp. 599-603,
h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.egy .2019.09.032
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ScienceDi ec
Ene gy Repo s 6 (2020) 599–603
www.else ie .com/loca e/egy
6 h In e na ional Con e ence on Ene gy and En i onmen Resea ch, ICEER 2019, 22–25 July,
Uni e si y o A ei o, Po ugal
Fo ma ion o ene gy policy in Eu ope, aking in o accoun ends in
he global ma ke
I.V. P o o naya∗, I.V. Filimono a, L.V. Ede , V.Y. Nemo , E.A. Zemnukho a
No osibi sk S a e Uni e si y, No osibi sk, 630090, Russia
T o imuk Ins i u e o Pe oleum Geology and Geophysics o Sibe ian B anch Russian Academy o Science, 630090, Russia
Recei ed 19 July 2019; accep ed 12 Sep embe 2019
A ailable online 26 Oc obe 2019
Abs ac
The a icle highligh s he main ends in he de elopmen o wo ld ene gy. The me hod o o ecas ing ene gy consump ion
is p esen ed, aking in o accoun he le el and dynamics o ene gy consump ion in gene al, as well as he use o indi idual
ene gy esou ces wi h di e en ia ion by coun ies and egions. In he p esen s udy, when o ming he ene gy o ecas , he
key indica o s de e mining he global ene gy demand a e he dynamics o he ene gy in ensi y o GDP and pe capi a ene gy
consump ion. I is shown ha in he o al olume o wo ld consump ion o p ima y ene gy esou ces, oil will con inue o
occupy a leading posi ion. Among ossil uels, he demand o na u al gas will inc ease mos in ensi ely. The sha e o coal in
he s uc u e o consump ion o p ima y ene gy ca ie s will dec ease, which is associa ed wi h he eplacemen o coal wi h
na u al gas in o de o educe ca bon dioxide emissions. The g ea es g ow h a es o demand among non- ossil uels will be
obse ed in enewable ene gy sou ces. The main g ow h in a omic ene gy consump ion will be in he de eloping coun ies o
he Asia-Paci ic Region.
c
2019 Published by Else ie L d. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license
(h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Pee - e iew unde esponsibili y o he scien i ic commi ee o he 6 h In e na ional Con e ence on Ene gy and En i onmen Resea ch, ICEER 2019.
Keywo ds: Ene gy consump ion; Eu ope; Fo ecas ; Renewable ene gy; T ends; Wo ld
1. In oduc ion
App oaches o modeling and o ecas ing wo ld ene gy can a y signi ican ly. Signi ican ly di e en and sys em-
a iza ion o such app oaches. Jeba aj and Iniyan (2006) chose o compile a e iew o speci ic ene gy models [1].
In gene al, he au ho s agg ega e all he conside ed app oaches in o se e al main g oups — ene gy demand and
supply models (Ene gy supply–demand models), o ecas ing models (Fo ecas ing models), op imiza ion models
(Op imiza ion models), models based on neu al ne wo ks (Ene gy models based on). Neu al ne wo ks, en i onmen al
models based on CO2 emission educ ion (Emission educ ion models).
∗Co esponding au ho a : No osibi sk S a e Uni e si y, No osibi sk, 630090, Russia.
E-mail add ess: P o [email p o ec ed] (I.V. P o o naya).
h ps://doi.o g/10.1016/j.egy .2019.09.032
2352-4847/ c
2019 Published by Else ie L d. This is an open access a icle unde he CC BY-NC-ND license (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/
licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Pee - e iew unde esponsibili y o he scien i ic commi ee o he 6 h In e na ional Con e ence on Ene gy and En i onmen Resea ch, ICEER
2019.
600 I.V. P o o naya, I.V. Filimono a, L.V. Ede e al. / Ene gy Repo s 6 (2020) 599–603
Bazmi and Zahedi (2011) ocus on he ene gy sec o and op imiza ion models, in pa icula , ela ed o he
p oduc ion, dis ibu ion o ene gy, i s consump ion in mul i-scale ene gy sys ems [2]. P enninge e al. (2014) p esen
an analysis o exis ing ene gy consump ion models wi hin di e en model amilies [3].
The au ho s dis inguish h ee main g oups o models: (1) op imiza ion models, (2) simula ion models, (3)
quali a i e and agg ega ed models. The e a e o he ypes o models, bu hese ou a e key o ene gy policy.
To build a o ecas o ene gy consump ion, end models a e o en used in he li e a u e. The e is a signi ican
amoun o wo k de o ed o analyzing ends in bo h ene gy consump ion in gene al and speci ic indica o s. One
app oach o p edic ing ene gy consump ion is o analyze he dynamics o g ow h and he le el o economic
de elopmen , as well as he de elopmen o echnology [4]. Ha el and Baguan in es iga ed he dynamics o he a io
o ends in ene gy consump ion and GDP and he co esponding elas ici y coe icien s ha can be used o p edic
ene gy consump ion [5]. Ang and Zhang (2000) conduc ene gy consump ion modeling using a ious g ow h cu e
models [6]. To p edic US oil supply, ma hema ical models o g ow h cu es ha e been de eloped [7]. Based on
he sa u a ion cu es, ex apola ion o he co esponding ene gy in ensi y alues has been p oposed o use modi ied
logis ic unc ions o o ecas he demand o c ude oil and na u al gas his me hod is p oposed by Hammond and
Mackay (1993) [8].
P ope analysis o sus ainable ends in he ex ac ion and consump ion o ene gy esou ces in Eu opean coun ies
is necessa y o he o ma ion o an e ec i e sys em o s a e egula ion o he uel and ene gy complex. An analysis
o he de elopmen o he ene gy sys em in he wo ld is pa icula ly ele an o coun ies a ge ing he impo o
aw ma e ials, which should closely moni o he ene gy ma ke and o ecas i s luc ua ions and ends. In his
ega d, he goal o scien i ic wo k is he s udy o s uc u al changes in he ene gy consump ion sys em o he wo ld,
as well as Eu opean coun ies. To achie e his goal in he wo k we e sol ed he ollowing asks:
1. Re iew o exis ing app oaches o p edic ene gy consump ion.
2. Analysis o sus ainable ends in he ex ac ion and consump ion o ene gy esou ces in Eu opean coun ies.
3. Building a o ecas o ene gy consump ion up o 2040, aking in o accoun di e en ia ion acco ding o he
mac o egions o he wo ld and ypes o ene gy.
2. Me hodology
To assess he le els o speci ic ene gy consump ion o e he coming decades, a dynamic analysis o he ime se ies
o ene gy consump ion by coun ies and egions om 1970–2017 is ca ied ou . Based on s a is ical in o ma ion o
he wo ld’s la ges economic and ene gy o ganiza ions (Uni ed Na ions O ganiza ion, O ganiza ion o Economic
Coope a ion and De elopmen , In e na ional Ene gy Agency, Ene gy In o ma ion Adminis a ion, In e na ional
Bank, In e na ional Mone a y Fund, e c.) and companies (B i ish Pe oleum, Exxon Mobil, Royal Du ch Shell,
e c.) a da abase o coun ies is c ea ed, which is necessa y o building an ene gy consump ion o ecas .
When building a model o ene gy consump ion, special a en ion is paid o he conside a ion o speci ic ene gy
consump ion as pe uni o popula ion (pe capi a ene gy consump ion)
EN=E
N,(1)
and pe uni o GDP (ene gy in ensi y o he economy)
E =E
BBΠ(2)
whe e E — ene gy consump ion, N — popula ion.
When building p ospec i e ene gy consump ion le els, an impo an s ep is he o ma ion o eliable p ojec ions
o popula ion size and g oss domes ic p oduc . This is s a ed in he wo ks o he au ho s Ca ayannis e al. (2017),
Che epo i syn (2018), Sha e al. (2014a), (2014b) [9–12]. The wo k is sys ema ized and g ouped o ecas s in o
he app op ia e s uc u e, made in o he esea ch o ganiza ions and cen e s.
Nex is he app oxima ion and unc ional desc ip ion o he ene gy in ensi y le els o he economy E and pe
capi a ene gy consump ion ENin ime.
Taking in o accoun he conduc ed dynamic analysis o he ene gy in ensi y o GDP a ound he wo ld, a end
has been e ealed o educe he ene gy in ensi y o he economy, which is desc ibed by exponen ial dependence:
E =β∗e−γ ,(3)
I.V. P o o naya, I.V. Filimono a, L.V. Ede e al. / Ene gy Repo s 6 (2020) 599–603 601
whe e βis he coe icien de e mining he le el o ene gy in ensi y o he economy o he ini ial yea , γ— he
coe icien o in ensi y o he economy’s ene gy in ensi y educ ion (The index o ene gy in ensi y educ ion (IEIR)),
— he cu en yea .
In he las decade wi h small cu en luc ua ions, he le el o ene gy consump ion pe capi a is desc ibed by
linea dependence:
EN=E
N=ϕ+µ∗ ,(4)
whe e ϕ— he amoun o pe capi a ene gy consump ion o he ini ial yea , µ— he coe icien o he in ensi y
o change in pe capi a ene gy consump ion.
Since end models do no always p o ide eliable es ima es, especially o de eloping coun ies, he adjus men
o o ecas alues is ca ied ou aking in o accoun he cons uc ion o a mul i ac o model.
Nex is he cons uc ion o a mul i ac o spa ial model and analysis o he in luence o a ious g oups o ac o s
and indi idual indica o s on he speci ic le el o ene gy consump ion.
Among he a ious g oups o ac o s in luencing he le el o speci ic ene gy in ensi y in he amewo k o he
s age unde conside a ion, a mul i ac o ial eg ession model o he in luence o con olling ac o s is being buil
(economic s uc u e, le el o de elopmen o ene gy-sa ing echnologies, clima ic condi ions, esou ce endowmen ,
ene gy p ices, en i onmen al cons ain s, uel and ene gy balance s uc u e):
E = (S ,T eh,R
N,C,Eco,S E),(5)
S — economic s uc u e, T eh — le el o de elopmen o ene gy-sa ing echnologies, R — hyd oca bon
ese es, N — popula ion, C — ela i e p ices, Eco — en i onmen al es ic ions, S E — s uc u e o he mopile.
To de e mine he ene gy in ensi y le els o GDP in de eloping coun ies and egions, he mul i a ia e model se s
he alue o which he ene gy in ensi y o de eloping coun ies will s i e o a g oup o con ol indica o s. The
same applies o de eloping coun ies and egions ha ha e no had a s eady decline in speci ic ene gy consump ion
pe uni o GDP. The esul is an adjus men o he end model, aking in o accoun he mul i a ia e analysis.
Fo all conside ed g oups o coun ies, an ene gy consump ion o ecas o each yea is gi en, based on he
ene gy in ensi y o he economy.
Also in his block is gi en he o ecas o ene gy consump ion, based on he le el o pe capi a ene gy
consump ion. Taking in o accoun he analysis o he in luence o ac o s on he le el o pe capi a ene gy
consump ion in de eloped coun ies and he unc ional dependence o speci ic ene gy consump ion, a o ecas is
made o he change in pe capi a ene gy consump ion o e ime.
As a esul , a o ecas o ene gy consump ion pe capi a is gi en o all he conside ed g oups o coun ies, om
which, aking in o accoun he exis ing popula ion scena ios, he le el o ene gy consump ion is p edic ed o each
yea a ound he wo ld. Taking in o accoun he abo e app oaches, a combined e sion o he ene gy consump ion
o ecas o each mac o- egion and each ene gy ca ie is o med. The ul illmen o he condi ion o equali y o
ene gy consump ion alues ob ained h ough he ene gy in ensi y o he economy and h ough he le el o pe capi a
ene gy consump ion is checked:
E=E ∗BBΠ=EN∗N.(6)
3. Resul s and discussion
On he basis o he p oposed me hodological app oach, i was e ealed ha du ing he o ecas pe iod,
consump ion o all ypes o ene gy ca ie s is expec ed o inc ease. The o al ene gy consump ion by 2040 will
g ow o mo e han 17670 million ons o oil equi alen . A he same ime, he highes a es in he wo ld will
inc ease he consump ion o enewable ene gy sou ces (mo e han 5 imes om 2017 o 2040), he slowes inc ease
will be oil consump ion (sligh ly mo e han 1.1 imes om 2017 o 2040) and coal (sligh ly less han 1.1 imes
om 2017 o 2040) (See Fig. 1).
By 2040, in he s uc u e o p ima y ene gy consump ion in he wo ld, he sha e o oil will dec ease o 28%
( om 34%), coal — o 22% ( om 28%), which is connec ed wi h he subs i u ion o hese ene gy ca ie s o o he
ypes o ene gy in o de o educe ca bon dioxide emissions. In addi ion, a omic ene gy will be educed o 4%. Fo
all o he ene gy sou ces, he e will be an inc ease in he sha e in wo ld ene gy consump ion (See Fig. 2).
602 I.V. P o o naya, I.V. Filimono a, L.V. Ede e al. / Ene gy Repo s 6 (2020) 599–603
Fig. 1. S uc u e o p ima y consump ion in he wo ld by ype o ene gy.
Fig. 2. The olume and s uc u e o p ima y ene gy consump ion in Eu opean coun ies in 2017 and 2040, %.
The de elopmen o gas echnologies (shale gas, deep-sea deposi s o hyd oca bons), anspo a ion (LNG,
o sho e pipelines), expansion o he esou ce base (Cen al Asia, USA, shel es o he A c ic seas), apid
de elopmen o new (APR) and adi ional ma ke s (Eu ope), igh ening en i onmen al ac o s associa ed wi h
limi ing CO2 emissions [13–15].
The g ow h o global ene gy consump ion is due o ising p ospe i y and ising li ing s anda ds in eme ging
ma ke economies. The la ges inc ease in ene gy consump ion in he wo ld will be achie ed a he expense o he
APR coun ies: China and India. A he same ime, as China ansi ions o a mo e sus ainable model o economic
g ow h, he e will be a dec ease in ene gy consump ion g ow h a es. Wi h popula ion g ow h and labo p oduc i i y,
he e is an annual inc ease in ene gy consump ion in A ican coun ies.
In he s uc u e o p ima y ene gy consump ion in Eu ope, by 2040, i is planned o educe he sha e o oil om
37% (2017) o 24%, and he sha e o coal om 15.1% (2017) o 10.3%, mainly due o g ow h o enewable ene gy.
The ac i e ansi ion o Eu opean coun ies o enewable ene gy sou ces (RES) is due o he a ailabili y o
ene gy esou ces ha do no ha e a nega i e impac on he en i onmen , human heal h and con ibu e o esou ce
conse a ion. As he sha e o enewable ene gy g ows, he use o enewable ene gy sou ces becomes mo e and
mo e economically compe i i e, and some imes cheape han he consump ion o o he ypes o ene gy.
4. Conclusion
The main end in wo ld ene gy de elopmen is he g ow h o ene gy p oduc ion and consump ion o all ene gy
ca ie s wi hou excep ion. As ci iliza ion de elops, he e is a signi ican di e si ica ion and expansion o he ange
o ene gy sou ces consumed, une en dis ibu ion o he main cen e s o ene gy p oduc ion and consump ion, une en
ene gy consump ion in de eloped and de eloping coun ies. Taking in o accoun he p oposed me hodological

I.V. P o o naya, I.V. Filimono a, L.V. Ede e al. / Ene gy Repo s 6 (2020) 599–603 603
app oach, i is shown ha he g ow h o p oduc ion and consump ion o ossil ene gy sou ces will con inue. A
he same ime, hyd oca bon p oduc ion will g ow a a slowe pace han he p oduc ion o al e na i e and enewable
ene gy. Thus, when o ming a balanced ene gy policy in Eu ope, i is necessa y o ake in o accoun sus ainable
ends in he global ene gy ma ke .
Acknowledgmen s
The au ho s exp ess since e hanks o he e iewe s o hei use ul commen s and sugges ions.
Funding
The s udy was ca ied ou wi h he inancial suppo o he Russian Founda ion o Basic Resea ch in he
amewo k o esea ch p ojec 17-0600537 and he G an o he P esiden o he Russian Fede a ion o he suppo
o young scien is ’s MD-6476.2018.6.
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