Pejčić, Jo ica; Gla aški, Olgica; Beljić, Ma ina
A icle
D i ing o ces o he consume p ice index du ing he
c ises in he Eu ozone: He e ogeneous panel app oach
Economies
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Sugges ed Ci a ion: Pejčić, Jo ica; Gla aški, Olgica; Beljić, Ma ina (2024) : D i ing o ces o he
consume p ice index du ing he c ises in he Eu ozone: He e ogeneous panel app oach,
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Ci a ion: Pejˇci´c, Jo ica, Olgica
Gla aški, and Ma ina Belji´c. 2024.
D i ing Fo ces o he Consume P ice
Index Du ing he C ises in he
Eu ozone: He e ogeneous Panel
App oach. Economies 12: 292.
h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/
economies12110292
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economies
A icle
D i ing Fo ces o he Consume P ice Index Du ing he C ises in
he Eu ozone: He e ogeneous Panel App oach
Jo ica Pejˇci´c, Olgica Gla aški * and Ma ina Belji´c
Depa men o Economic Theo y and Policy, Facul y o Economics in Subo ica, Uni e si y o No i Sad,
24000 Subo ica, Se bia; [email p o ec ed] (J.P.); [email p o ec ed] (M.B.)
*Co espondence: [email p o ec ed]
Abs ac : This pape examines key d i ing o ces o in la iona y p essu es, aking in o accoun supply
and demand side de e minan s and ac ions o policy make s, du ing he pandemic and geopoli ical
c ises in he Eu ozone. Using he e ogeneous nons a iona y mac o-panel models, especially he Mean
G oup (MG) and Pooled Mean G oup (PMG) me hods in he pe iod 2020q1–2024q4, i is concluded
ha he dominan de e mina ion o in la iona y p essu es comes om he supply side. The e is a
long- un posi i e equilib ium ela ionship be ween he g ow h o ene gy p ices and he g ow h o
he consume p ice index (CPI), and be ween he index ep esen ing supply bo lenecks (SBI) and
he g ow h o CPI, while he ela ionship wi h he unemploymen a e is insigni ican . Also, he
exis ence o a long- un equilib ium be ween he in e es a e and CPI is homogeneous due o he
unique mone a y policy on a sample, and nega i e, indica ing he e iciency o ha policy. Howe e ,
he speed o adjus men o indi idual economies is he e ogeneous, and in he case o G eece and
I eland, insigni ican . The he e ogeneous o insigni ican esponse o Eu ozone membe s a es,
especially ela ed o co e-pe iphe y asymme y, e e s o he ulne abili y and s uc u al weakness o
he Eu ozone economies, and he need o deepe in eg a ion.
Keywo ds: consume p ice index; ene gy p ice; in e es a e; he e ogeneous panels; Eu ozone
1. In oduc ion
Shocks ha a e inhe en ly exogenous, pandemic c isis, and geopoli ical c isis, ha e
d as ically a ec ed he economies o he Eu opean Union (EU). The mos isible mac oeco-
nomic ou come was he ma ked inc ease in in la ion, which achie ed a his o ical pick in
mid-2022. Due o he pandemic c isis sp ead, he o icial esponse o many go e nmen s
a ound he wo ld led o he locking o na ional bo de s, as well as anspo . The inc ease
in ene gy p ices hus led o a sha p decline in economic ac i i ies in he second hal o
2020 in he majo i y o he EU coun ies (Bige na 2023). No long a e , he Russian mil-
i a y in e en ion in Uk aine a he beginning o 2022 complica ed he al eady di icul
mac oeconomic si ua ion, by limi ing he deli e y o pe oleum p oduc s o he e i o y
o he EU. Almos in e up ed supply chains and educed demand we e ine i able du -
ing he pandemic c isis, and hen he educ ion in agg ega e supply was p esen du ing
geopoli ical u bulence.
In he yea s o pandemic and geopoli ical c ises, he d i ing o ces o in la ion we e
mul iple, bu he mos impo an ones a e ela ed o ene gy p ices, ood p ices, demand
shi s, and supply bo lenecks.
The ise in ene gy p ices was ubiqui ous du ing he analyzed pe iod, and i is one
o he main indica o s o he c ea ion o in la iona y p essu es ( ˇ
Du ˇco á2021). Howe e ,
i is pa icula ly impo an o poin ou he ulne abili y o he EU economy due o i s
huge dependence on ene gy p oduc s impo ed om Russia. The lack o c ude oil led o a
dec ease in p oduc ion, a sha p ise in he p ices o ag icul u al and ood p oduc s, and an
inc ease in ene gy p ices.
Economies 2024,12, 292. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies12110292 h ps://www.mdpi.com/jou nal/economies
Economies 2024,12, 292 2 o 19
On he demand side, a c ucial ole had go e nmen spending p og ams which c ea ed
s ong consume and business demand. On he o he hand, demand shi s migh s em
as well om unemploymen because o he igh ened labo ma ke , which pu upwa d
p essu e on wages and p ices (Blancha d and Be nanke 2023;Blancha d 2022).
On he supply side, supply chain dis up ions and sho ages had an impo an in la-
iona y impac , pa icula ly in 2021 and 2022. Sho ages a e de ined as a lack o su icien
supply o mee demand. In he pe iod o he pandemic c isis, he combina ion o s ong
demand and supply chain bo lenecks led o u he p essu e on p ices (Baqaee and Fa hi
2020;Calda a e al. 2020). Supply chain bo lenecks a e cos -push shocks, ha dec ease
employmen and ou pu while inc easing p ices, meaning impo an ade-o s o mone-
a y policy (Bu iel e al. 2023). The e o e, his pape analyzes he eac ion o he mone a y
au ho i ies (Eu opean Cen al Bank—ECB) obse ed h ough he g ow h o in e es a es as
a esponse o in la iona y p essu es. The eac ion was es ic i e mone a y policy, h ough
an inc ease in in e es a es in o de o ealize downwa d p essu e on p ices.
In his con ex , he basis o his wo k is o examine and de e mine he key d i ing o ces
o he consume p ice index (CPI), which sys ema izes in la iona y p essu es. The ime
pe iod aken in o accoun is om he i s qua e o 2020 o he las qua e o 2023, co e ing
pandemic and geopoli ical c ises. The obse a ion sample includes wel e economies ha
a e ini ial membe s o he Eu opean Mone a y Union, i.e., he Eu ozone (Aus ia, Belgium,
Finland, F ance, Ge many, G eece, I aly, I eland, Ne he lands, Luxembou g, Po ugal, and
Spain). Al hough he sample o obse ed coun ies may appea a he homogeneous a i s
glance, his should be conside ed ca e ully as he analyzed economies o en ha e di e se
economic en i onmen s and coo dina ed bu he e ogeneous iscal policies. This is p ecisely
he eason why he pape uses a he e ogeneous panel model in o de o de e mine possible
di e ences be ween coun ies (Huang and Liu 2005). Since all economies a e pa o he
Eu ozone assuming homogenei y, while he ime dimension is ela i ely long assuming
he e ogenei y, he issue o he e ogenei y s. homogenei y in he model is analyzed wi h
special a en ion in his pape , h ough h ee al e na i e es ima o s: he Pooled Mean
G oup (PMG) es ima o , he Mean G oup (MG) es ima o , and Dynamic Fixed-E ec s (DFE)
es ima o . This analysis could be use ul, especially in explo ing he long- un ela ionship
be ween hose a iables which a e expec ed o be homogeneous ac oss he Eu ozone
economies, due o a single mone a y amewo k; howe e , sho - un coe icien s could be
he e ogeneous. The e o e, i adjus men s owa d long- un equilib ium exis in he model,
ha could be a sign o a s abiliza ion mechanism wi hin a mone a y union.
Th ee basic objec i es o his pape a e: (1) o indica e and in e p e he ha m ulness
o he sudden inc ease in ene gy p ices, supply bo lenecks, and demand shi s on in la ion;
(2) o analyze he e ec s o he change in he in e es a e on he CPI, e.g., (in)e iciency o
mone a y policy; and (3) using a he e ogeneous nons a iona y panel model, o de e mine
whe he he e is a long- un equilib ium ela ionship be ween analyzed a iables and CPI,
on a sample o 12 Eu ozone economies in he pe iod 2020q1–2023q4. Al hough he ela ion
be ween hose d i ing ac o s and in la ion is well known in mac oeconomic heo y, he
idea o his pape is o empi ically show he ela i e impo ance o each ac o de e mining
in la iona y p essu es, and o analyze he he e ogenei y o hose in luences in he Eu ozone
economies, discussing po en ial epe cussions o policymake s.
The es o his pape is o ganized as ollows: a e he in oduc ion, he second pa
p esen s a e iew o he li e a u e, he hi d pa p esen s a desc ip i e analysis o he CPI
and ene gy p ice luc ua ions, he ou h pa p esen s he me hodology used in he pape ,
while he i h pa p esen s empi ical model and discussion o he esul s, based on he
PMG es ima o . In he las pa o he pape , concluding conside a ions we e p esen ed.
2. Li e a u e Re iew
The g ow h o in la iona y a es was he mos p onounced anomaly o he pandemic
and geopoli ical c ises, along wi h he ubiqui ous dep ecia ion o economic ac i i ies. In-
la ion a he global le el eached mul i-decade highs in 2022, a exceeding he mone a y
Economies 2024,12, 292 3 o 19
a ge s in many economies, including he Eu ozone, as well as he o ecas s o economic
policymake s. The yea 2023 is ma ked as he yea in which in la ion dec eases wi hin
he EU membe s a es and he Eu ozone, p ecisely because o he eac ion o economic
policymake s in he o m o an inc ease in in e es a es in o de o supp ess in la ion-
a y p essu es.
Focusing on in la iona y p essu es, he majo i y o esea ch pape s we e o ien ed
owa d ene gy p ice inc eases, and consequen ly supply-side shock, as he main igge s
o in la ion. In hei esea ch, Hansen e al. (2023) s i e o iden i y he easons o he
sudden inc ease in in la ion. They indica ed ha he gene al inc ease in p ice le els in he
e i o y o he Eu ozone was mainly caused by shocks ha occu ed in he goods ma ke
and esul ed in an eno mous inc ease in commodi y p ices, as well as in limi ed supply
du ing he pandemic and geopoli ical c isis. In line wi h p e ious s udies, Nickel e al.
(2023) concluded ha he main d i e s o in la ion in he Eu ozone a e inc eases in ene gy
p ices and ag icul u al and ood p ices, which a e he commodi ies ha he Eu ozone
coun ies impo he mos om Russia and Uk aine. This sugges s ha he shock was on
he supply side, caused by cons ained impo s and supplies, implying an ex e nal na u e
and he e o e, di ec ly dependen on he e olu ion o he mili a y con lic si ua ion in he
eas . Ne i e al. (2023) and Ne i (2024) poin ed ou in hei esea ch ha he pandemic and
geopoli ical c ises led o di ec shocks on he supply side, wi h a special ocus on elec ici y
p ice shocks, gas, and uel. Based on empi ical esea ch (including Vec o Au oReg essi e
models, ime- a ying Phillips cu es, and dynamic ac o models), i is es ima ed ha abou
60 pe cen o in la iona y p essu es we e gene a ed by he g ow h o ene gy p ices and
ha his g ow h was sha pes in he ou h qua e o 2022. In hei wo k, Pie gio gio and
Gazzani (2023) showed ha he sudden inc ease in ene gy p ices has la gely spilled o e
in o a gene al inc ease in p ice le els, gene a ing in la iona y p essu es in many Eu opean
coun ies, while he ou pu has mos ly emained a he le el o p e ious yea s, wi h a
sligh endency o all. Mo eo e , a b oade con ex o he EU’s ulne abili y o ex e nal
shocks in he o m o luc ua ions in he p ice o c ude oil, gas, elec ici y, and o he ene gy
sou ces on in la ion, unemploymen , in es men s, p oduc ion, and GDP a e analyzed in
he pape by Gou smed (2021), Kos in e al. (2021), Diego (2021), Dema y and Hü he
(2022), P oho o s (2022), Pejˇci´c e al. (2023), Ne i e al. (2023), S ojko e al. (2023), and
Pejˇci´c e al. (Fo hcoming).
In he con ex o his pape , he mos impo an pape s a e hose ela ed o supply
sho ages and he c ea ion o in la iona y p essu es. Celasun e al. (2022) showed ha hal o
he ise in manu ac u ing p oduce p ice in la ion in he Eu ozone would no ha e occu ed
in he absence o supply bo lenecks. The empi ical s udies ha analyze he mac oeconomic
impac o supply bo lenecks a e e y limi ed due o a lack o da a. The e o e, u he
au ho s made impo an con ibu ions o he li e a u e, since hey p oposed measu es o
supply bo lenecks and made hem a ailable o o he au ho s. Calda a e al. (2020) used
p edic i e eg essions and a s uc u al ec o au o eg essi e (VAR) model in he USA,
analyzing he pe iod om 1900 o 2023, co e ing pe iods such as he Wo ld Wa s, he
oil shocks o he 1970s and he 1980s, and he COVID-19 pandemic. They showed ha
sho ages (supply bo lenecks) lead o pe sis en ly highe in la ion and lowe economic
ac i i y. Pi schne (2022) and Blancha d and Be nanke (2023) ha e ackled he in e sec ion
o sho ages and he beha io o in la ion du ing he pandemic c isis and u he . In
pa icula , he main goal o Pi schne (2022) was o assess o wha ex en sho ages a e
common du ing he pandemic c isis. Blancha d and Be nanke (2023), analyzed a model
which seeks o explain he causes o pandemic-e a in la ion, wi h a conclusion ha supply
bo lenecks ha e a “s ong, bu empo a y e ec ” on in la ion. Bu iel e al. (2023) o a
sample o six de eloped Eu opean economies and he USA, de ined he supply bo lenecks
index (SBI) co e ing pe iod o ea ly o middle-2000s ill 2024 on daily and mon hly da a.
The au ho s showed ha he shock o he s anda d de ia ion in he SBI aised p ices and
unemploymen and dec eased ou pu .
Economies 2024,12, 292 4 o 19
Along wi h iden i ied shocks on he supply side, Buelens and Zda ek (2023), indica ed
ha he pandemic c isis caused a ious economic shocks on he demand side as well in
he Eu ozone. The indings o Cline (2023) coincide wi h p e ious esea ch, showing ha
supply sho ages and excess demand a e he main gene a o s o global in la ion. On he
opposi e, B yson e al. (2024) poin ou ha in la iona y p essu es a e di ec ly de e mined
by a p oblem on he supply side, a he han inc easing o excessi e demand c ea ed by
he economy o households. In cu en geopoli ical condi ions, as a ounda ion o he
decisions aken by he wo ld’s la ges numbe o cen al banks, a dec ease in in la ion is
expec ed, bu likewise is a ise in unemploymen and a nega i e a e o economic g ow h.
Namely, when he economic en i onmen is a ec ed by shocks ega ding uncon olled
and equen luc ua ions in ene gy p ices, as well as limi ed p oduc ion pe o mance, hen
he a i ude o he mone a y au ho i ies is c ucial, and he ade-o be ween high in la ion
and he amo ized economy is a eali y. Ha e al. (2022) poin ou ha high and as -g owing
in la ion has p omp ed cen al banks a ound he wo ld o inc ease in e es a es, in o de
o amo ize ha m ul and o e hea ed economic ac i i ies and he eby b ing down in la ion,
expec ing ha in he medium e m, he in la ion a e would e u n wi hin he mone a y
a ge s. Howe e , ha implies ha he cen al bank’s decision o inc ease in e es a es in
o de o supp ess in la iona y p essu es may cause nega i e epe cussions on economic
g ow h, he unemploymen a e, and o he objec i es. Wellink (2024) poin s ou ha he
pandemic and pos -pandemic c isis undoub edly p oduced sha p unce ain ies in e ms o
in la iona y p essu es and he uni ied mone a y policy wi hin he Eu ozone. The au ho
adds ha he sup ana ional managemen o mone a y policy has se iously made i di icul
o sol e p oblems a ising in he eal sec o in e ms o s abili y.
In mi iga ing in la iona y p essu es, he dominan ole was played by he Eu opean
Cen al Bank (ECB), since Eu ozone economies accep ed he achie emen o mone a y goals
(in la ion s abili y) a he expense o iscal goals (lowe a e o economic g ow h). The e o e,
Ozil and A un (2022) highligh ed ha he bigges discon inui y o he global economy
is he occu ence o he ecession. Bay ak a (2024) poin s ou ha ea s o a ecession
a ound he wo ld ha e ne e been g ea e , he e idence is he ac ha he GDP is slowing
down in some de eloped coun ies. Koma o skaia (2023) poin s ou ha he appea ance o
s ag la ion and he d ama ic economic scena io o he 1970s has become ex emely appa en
due o he global c isis. The main easons o he eme gence o s ag la iona y p essu es
a e di ec ly de e mined by he une en and incomple e eco e y om he pandemic c isis,
which was u he p olonged by he con lic in Uk aine.
Analyzing he e ec s o supply and demand shock du ing pandemic and geopoli ical
c isis, some au ho s p oposed he conclusion ha hose e ec s we e he e ogeneous and
asymme ic in he Eu ozone economies. Ca nazza and Libe a i (2021) in es iga ed wha
happened o in e es a es on go e nmen bonds in he coun ies o he Eu ozone du ing
2020–2022. They conside ed he pandemic eme gence o be a symme ic shock, while he
economic allou —which mani es ed as an inc ease in in e es a es—was asymme ic in
cha ac e . F om he o he pe spec i e, bu wi h a simila conclusion, Ran e al. (2024)
analyze he impac o mone a y and iscal policy on p oduc ion ends in coun ies ha
a e pa o he Eu ozone in he pe iod 2005–2022 wi h a special ocus on he pe iod o
he pandemic c isis, using a s uc u al ec o au o eg essi e (SVAR) app oach. Based on
empi ical esul s, hey e eal ha he igh ening o mone a y policy in he o m o an
inc ease in in e es a es, and due o he supp ession o in la iona y p essu es, p oduces
a nega i e and delayed e ec on bo h ou pu and in la ion, whe eby he e ec s di e
be ween coun ies. In hei esea ch, Pejˇci´c e al. (2024) analyze he key mac oeconomic
epe cussions o he pandemic and geopoli ical c isis in he o m o g owing in la iona y
p essu es, which we e gene a ed by he limi ed supply and he inc ease in he p ice o
c ude oil on a sample o 15 de eloped EU economies. The esea ch indica ed ha coun ies
such as F ance and Po ugal aced mo e se e e in la iona y p essu es, compa ed o Aus ia,
Belgium, and Finland, whe e in la iona y p essu es we e a less p esen . Asymme ic
e ec s a e de ec ed in he esea ch o Ne i (2024), who poin ed ou ha he insu icien
Economies 2024,12, 292 5 o 19
amoun o ene gy had p oduced sha pe economic anomalies in he o m o in la iona y
p essu es in de eloping coun ies, compa ed o highly de eloped economies. Ce on and
Pale mo (2020) highligh ed ha he pandemic c isis deepened economic di e ences in
de elopmen , simul aneously he ulne abili y wi hin he economies o he EU. Namely,
he pandemic c isis e ealed he e ogenei y in he Eu ozone economies, and i ep esen s a
wa ning o he po en ial u he de ia ion be ween he co e and he pe iphe al economies
o he Eu ozone in he coming yea s.
The con ibu ion o his pape is p ima ily o p o ide a comp ehensi e desc ip i e
and empi ical analysis in ela ion o he gene a ion o in la iona y p essu es, as well as he
eac ion o mone a y au ho i ies in he o m o ising in e es a es in he Eu ozone. The
esea ch will ill a gap in he exis ing li e a u e in ela ion o he e ogeneous and asymme ic
e ec s o he Eu ozone economies du ing pandemic and geopoli ical c ises, and modelling
o in la ion he e ogenei y.
3. Desc ip i e S a is ics—G owing In la iona y P essu es
Essen ially, a ise in he p ice le el is p esen when he e is a sho age o high demand
o goods o se ices. In case o a sho age o ce ain ca ego ies o goods, companies will
aise he p ice o he inal p oduc because hey ha e o spend mo e on ma e ials, wages, o
anspo . Fi ms will also cha ge highe p ices i hey ealize ha cus ome s a e willing o
pay mo e due o he una ailabili y o goods o inc eased demand and he eby, imp o e
hei p o i s a us. All he men ioned ac o s ha e se ious implica ions o mac oeconomic
indica o s, bu hey a e exogenous and sho - e m in na u e. On he o he hand, i i is a
long- un ac o , ha ep esen s a ce ain discon inui y, such as a pandemic o he cu en
geopoli ical c isis, hen he si ua ion is incompa ably mo e complex and is e lec ed in
educed o limi ed p oduc ion, which implies an inc ease in p ices (Hun 2022). The p ices
o ene gy, ag icul u al p oduc s, ood p oduc s, and c ude oil eached hei maximum
du ing he c isis pe iod. The e o e, we can conclude ha he sha p ise in ene gy p ices has
a - eaching consequences, no only o end consume s bu also o he economy as a whole.
Also, in o de o unde s and he en i e si ua ion ega ding he unc ioning o he economic
policy o he Eu ozone du ing he pandemic and geopoli ical c ises, i is necessa y o ake
in o conside a ion he ole and luc ua ions o he in e es a e.
Figu e 1shows he a e age luc ua ions o ene gy p ices, in e es a es, and he CPI
o a sample o 12 Eu ozone coun ies in he pe iod 2020q1–2023q4. The conclusion is
ha since he second qua e o 2021, he e has been an exponen ial inc ease in ene gy
p ices, ollowed by an inc ease in he CPI. In he same pe iod, he alue o he in e es
a e ho e ed a ound ze o, which indica es ha loans a e economical, money is cheap, and
economic ac i i ies a e en e ing an o e hea ing phase. The highes le el o ene gy p ices
was eco ded in he ou h qua e o 2022, a e which a downwa d end is e iden . CPI
eco ds an almos iden ical end as ene gy p ices ill he ou h qua e o 2022, bu a e
ha he same end wi h one-qua e lag, p obably due o measu es o economic policy.
Namely, he epo (In e na ional Ene gy Agency 2024) poin s ou ha wholesale gas and
elec ici y p ices ose o each an all- ime high in 2022 be o e s a ing o all in 2023, due
o swi and join EU eme gency measu es. The EU’s o al spending on ene gy impo s
was 604 billion eu os in 2022, a e a his o ic low o 163 billion eu os in 2020. On he o he
hand, in hin pe iods when in la iona y p essu es dec ease, he le el o he alue o he
in e es a e s a s o ise. Du ing he second and hi d qua e s, he le el o he in e es
a e eaches i s maximum alue and mo es abo e 4%. This kind o in e es a e g ow h
was las eco ded du ing he global inancial c isis in 2008.
Impo an d i e s o in la ion could be a iables on he supply and demand side. In
he analysis o he supply side, he mos impo an igge o in la ion would be supply
bo lenecks. Bu iel e al. (2023) de eloped he supply bo lenecks index (SBI) which
measu es supply side issues ela ed o wa s, na u al disas e s, s ikes, and, mos ecen ly,
he COVID-19 pandemic, based on ex ual sea ches in na ional newspape s. The high-
equency na u e o he indica o , which can be e ie ed daily, o mon hly allows o
Economies 2024,12, 292 6 o 19
eal- ime analysis o bo lenecks and helps o be e iden i y supply shock e ec s on mac o
a iables. Figu e 2(p ima y axis) shows SBI o he a e age o he Eu ozone economies
du ing pandemic and geopoli ical c ises. Highe alues indica e he highe in ensi y o
he shock. The index inc eased d ama ically in he second qua e o 2020, as a esul o
he pandemic c isis- ela ed supply dis up ions, and has emained a his highe le el un il
he end o he analyzed pe iod. The nex spike is ela ed o he dis up ions caused by he
accine sho ages, and again in he i s qua al o 2022, due o he Russian–Uk aine wa .
The las spike is ela ed o he lockdown o China in he hi d qua e o 2022. I seems ha
du ing bo h c ises, supply bo lenecks we e p esen and hus ac ed as po en ial d i e s
o in la ion.
Economies 2024, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 o 20
Figu e 1. A e age mo emen o ene gy p ices, in e es a es, and CPI in he Eu ozone economies
(2020q1–2023q4). Sou ce: Au ho s p esen a ion.
Impo an d i e s o in la ion could be a iables on he supply and demand side. In
he analysis o he supply side, he mos impo an igge o in la ion would be supply
bo lenecks. Bu iel e al. (2023) de eloped he supply bo lenecks index (SBI) which
measu es supply side issues ela ed o wa s, na u al disas e s, s ikes, and, mos ecen ly,
he COVID-19 pandemic, based on ex ual sea ches in na ional newspape s. The high-
equency na u e o he indica o , which can be e ie ed daily, o mon hly allows o eal-
ime analysis o bo lenecks and helps o be e iden i y supply shock effec s on mac o
a iables. Figu e 2 (p ima y axis) shows SBI o he a e age o he Eu ozone economies
du ing pandemic and geopoli ical c ises. Highe alues indica e he highe in ensi y o
he shock. The index inc eased d ama ically in he second qua e o 2020, as a esul o
he pandemic c isis- ela ed supply dis up ions, and has emained a his highe le el un il
he end o he analyzed pe iod. The nex spike is ela ed o he dis up ions caused by he
accine sho ages, and again in he i s qua al o 2022, due o he Russian–Uk aine wa .
The las spike is ela ed o he lockdown o China in he hi d qua e o 2022. I seems
ha du ing bo h c ises, supply bo lenecks we e p esen and hus ac ed as po en ial d i -
e s o in la ion.
On he demand side, an impo an a iable could be unemploymen , since he lack
o agg ega e demand in he c isis con ibu ed o unemploymen . The opposi e end is
iden i ied in he analysis o he a e age unemploymen a e (Figu e 2, seconda y axis).
Du ing he pandemic c isis, he a e age Eu ozone unemploymen a e was highe han
8%, while om he i s qua e o 2021, a dec easing end was iden i ied. Namely, du ing
ha pe iod downwa d end o a e age unemploymen could be a d i e o he in la ion-
a y p essu es.
Figu e 1. A e age mo emen o ene gy p ices, in e es a es, and CPI in he Eu ozone economies
(2020q1–2023q4). Sou ce: Au ho s’ p esen a ion.
Economies 2024, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 o 20
Figu e 2. SBI and unemploymen a e in he Eu ozone in he pe iod 2020q1–2023q4. Sou ce: Au ho s
p esen a ion.
Al hough he decline in he CPI began on a e age in he second hal o 2022, his
de elopmen o he si ua ion was no e iden in all analyzed Eu ozone economies, show-
ing he e ogenei y in he sample. In he analysis ha ollows, we ep esen ed economies
wi h he highes and lowes in la iona y p essu es in he Eu ozone in he analyzed pe iod.
Figu e 3 shows he CPI and he p ice o ene gy on he p ima y axis, while he in e es a e
is on he seconda y axis. In la iona y p essu es measu ed in selec ed economies om he
sample (Po ugal, Ge many), we e he mos p onounced in he whole sample (achie ing
a ound 13%) and we e p esen un il he ou h qua e o 2023. We conclude ha dis up-
ions in he supply chain a e key ene gy p oduc s leading o an inc ease in he p ices o
ene gy p oduc s, and hus o he gene a ion o in la ion, which had a nega i e impac on
popula ion consump ion, budge planning, and in es men s. Also, i is no iceable ha he
esponse o he ECB h ough he implemen a ion o a es ic i e mone a y policy and an
inc ease in in e es a es, led o a all in he gene al le el o p ices and a educ ion in in la-
iona y p essu es (Di Bucchianico 2020). This dynamic o CPI and in e es a e was mos
co ela ed du ing he las wo qua e s o 2023.
On he o he hand, he ise in ene gy p ices did no ha e a dominan in luence on he
c ea ion o in la iona y p essu es in Finland and Luxembou g. In hose economies, he
CPI indices we e s able and low, achie ing mone a y a ge s, no only du ing he pan-
demic c isis bu also du ing he geopoli ical c isis (Figu e 3, shows he CPI and ene gy
p ice in he p ima y axis, while in e es a e in he seconda y axis). This indica es ha he
g ow h o he in e es a e and he igh ening o mone a y a angemen s only con i med
he adequa e conduc o he mone a y policy and he s abili y o he unc ioning o he
economic sys em.
Figu e 2. SBI and unemploymen a e in he Eu ozone in he pe iod 2020q1–2023q4. Sou ce: Au ho s’
p esen a ion.
On he demand side, an impo an a iable could be unemploymen , since he lack
o agg ega e demand in he c isis con ibu ed o unemploymen . The opposi e end is
Economies 2024,12, 292 7 o 19
iden i ied in he analysis o he a e age unemploymen a e (Figu e 2, seconda y axis).
Du ing he pandemic c isis, he a e age Eu ozone unemploymen a e was highe han
8%, while om he i s qua e o 2021, a dec easing end was iden i ied. Namely,
du ing ha pe iod downwa d end o a e age unemploymen could be a d i e o he
in la iona y p essu es.
Al hough he decline in he CPI began on a e age in he second hal o 2022, his
de elopmen o he si ua ion was no e iden in all analyzed Eu ozone economies, showing
he e ogenei y in he sample. In he analysis ha ollows, we ep esen ed economies wi h
he highes and lowes in la iona y p essu es in he Eu ozone in he analyzed pe iod.
Figu e 3shows he CPI and he p ice o ene gy on he p ima y axis, while he in e es
a e is on he seconda y axis. In la iona y p essu es measu ed in selec ed economies
om he sample (Po ugal, Ge many), we e he mos p onounced in he whole sample
(achie ing a ound 13%) and we e p esen un il he ou h qua e o 2023. We conclude ha
dis up ions in he supply chain a e key ene gy p oduc s leading o an inc ease in he p ices
o ene gy p oduc s, and hus o he gene a ion o in la ion, which had a nega i e impac
on popula ion consump ion, budge planning, and in es men s. Also, i is no iceable ha
he esponse o he ECB h ough he implemen a ion o a es ic i e mone a y policy and
an inc ease in in e es a es, led o a all in he gene al le el o p ices and a educ ion in
in la iona y p essu es (Di Bucchianico 2020). This dynamic o CPI and in e es a e was
mos co ela ed du ing he las wo qua e s o 2023.
Economies 2024, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 o 20
Figu e 3. He e ogenei y o in la iona y p essu es in he Eu ozone economies in he pe iod 2020q1–
2023q4. Sou ce: Au ho s p esen a ion.
Based on he desc ip i e p esen a ion and analysis, we conclude ha Po ugal and
Ge many eco ded a sudden inc ease in p ice le els, which was la gely gene a ed by he
inc ease in he p ice o ene gy p oduc s. This is ollowed by an inc ease in in e es a es
and a all in he gene al p ice le el in he analyzed coun ies. The de elopmen o he
si ua ion was a diffe en in Finland and Luxembou g, whe e he g ow h o ene gy p ices
did no play a decisi e ole in inc easing he CPI in he obse ed pe iod and c ea ing in-
la iona y p essu es. The e o e, i can be concluded ha he effec s o ene gy p ice g ow h
had a he e ogeneous impac on de e mining he in la iona y p essu es o he analyzed
economies in he men ioned pe iod. Based on e e y hing aken in o accoun , we can claim
ha he common goals in e ms o mone a y policy, as well as he common cu ency, we e
no sufficien in he analyzed pe iod o c ea e a simila in la ion end in Eu ozone econ-
omies. Namely, he analyzed coun ies ha e a diffe en economic s uc u e, as well as he
ax sys em and public spending, which we e decisi e in hese ci cums ances. Also, he
eac ion o he ECB in he o m o a igh ening o mone a y policy and an inc ease in in-
e es a es led o he ac ha he end o cu en in la ion app oached o equaled he
de ined mone a y a ge (Con li i and Luciani 2019).
4. Me hodological F amewo k and Da a
On he basis o s ylized ac s, and heo e ical and empi ical assump ions ela ed o
he analysis o he effec s o ene gy shocks, supply and demand side effec s on CPI du ing
he c ises, he nons a iona y panel da a model is de ined in his pape . The idea o he
Figu e 3. He e ogenei y o in la iona y p essu es in he Eu ozone economies in he pe iod 2020q1–
2023q4. Sou ce: Au ho s’ p esen a ion.
On he o he hand, he ise in ene gy p ices did no ha e a dominan in luence on he
c ea ion o in la iona y p essu es in Finland and Luxembou g. In hose economies, he CPI
indices we e s able and low, achie ing mone a y a ge s, no only du ing he pandemic
c isis bu also du ing he geopoli ical c isis (Figu e 3, shows he CPI and ene gy p ice in he
Economies 2024,12, 292 8 o 19
p ima y axis, while in e es a e in he seconda y axis). This indica es ha he g ow h o
he in e es a e and he igh ening o mone a y a angemen s only con i med he adequa e
conduc o he mone a y policy and he s abili y o he unc ioning o he economic sys em.
Based on he desc ip i e p esen a ion and analysis, we conclude ha Po ugal and
Ge many eco ded a sudden inc ease in p ice le els, which was la gely gene a ed by he
inc ease in he p ice o ene gy p oduc s. This is ollowed by an inc ease in in e es a es and
a all in he gene al p ice le el in he analyzed coun ies. The de elopmen o he si ua ion
was a di e en in Finland and Luxembou g, whe e he g ow h o ene gy p ices did no
play a decisi e ole in inc easing he CPI in he obse ed pe iod and c ea ing in la iona y
p essu es. The e o e, i can be concluded ha he e ec s o ene gy p ice g ow h had a
he e ogeneous impac on de e mining he in la iona y p essu es o he analyzed economies
in he men ioned pe iod. Based on e e y hing aken in o accoun , we can claim ha he
common goals in e ms o mone a y policy, as well as he common cu ency, we e no
su icien in he analyzed pe iod o c ea e a simila in la ion end in Eu ozone economies.
Namely, he analyzed coun ies ha e a di e en economic s uc u e, as well as he ax
sys em and public spending, which we e decisi e in hese ci cums ances. Also, he eac ion
o he ECB in he o m o a igh ening o mone a y policy and an inc ease in in e es a es led
o he ac ha he end o cu en in la ion app oached o equaled he de ined mone a y
a ge (Con li i and Luciani 2019).
4. Me hodological F amewo k and Da a
On he basis o s ylized ac s, and heo e ical and empi ical assump ions ela ed
o he analysis o he e ec s o ene gy shocks, supply and demand side e ec s on CPI
du ing he c ises, he nons a iona y panel da a model is de ined in his pape . The idea o
he model is o es ima e key de e minan s o dependen a iable CPI (di ec calcula ion).
Explana o y a iables in he model a e ENERGY PRICE (co e ing luc ua ions in he
p ice o gas, elec ici y, uel), UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, INTEREST RATE, and supply
bo lenecks index, SBI. The in oduc ion o he SBI p o ides addi ional in o ma ion abou
he gene a ion o in la iona y p essu es ha a e no cap u ed by adi ional indica o s. We
expec o con i m ha he inc ease in he ENERGY PRICE and SBI ha e a posi i e e ec
on he CPI, ha he UNEMPLOYMENT RATE has a nega i e e ec on he CPI, as well as
ha he inc ease in he INTEREST RATE in he o m o a es ic i e mone a y policy has a
posi i e e ec on educing in la iona y p essu es and ensu ing p ice s abili y.
The a ailabili y o da a wi h highe equency, in his case qua e ly da a, made i
possible o analyze he men ioned ela ionships du ing he pe iod 2020q1–2023q4, co e ing
pandemic and geopoli ical c ises in he Eu ozone economies. Howe e , he ime dimension
o 16 obse a ions (T= 16), indica ed a ela i ely la ge panel (ins ead o he classical panel
model wi h a small T) and consequen ly, he es ima ion o non-s a iona y he e ogeneous
panels. On he o he hand, he ocus is on 12 economies ha a e ini ial membe s o he
Eu ozone: Aus ia, Belgium, Finland, F ance, Ge many, G eece, I aly, I eland, Ne he lands,
Luxembou g, Po ugal, and Spain indica ing c oss-sec ion dimension 12 (N= 12). Since
all economies a e pa o he Eu ozone assuming homogenei y, while he Tdimension is
ela i ely long assuming he e ogenei y, he issue o he e ogenei y s. homogenei y in he
model is analyzed wi h special a en ion in his pape . The e o e, he esea ch p o ides
h ee al e na i e es ima o s, aking in o conside a ion he di e en o ms o he e ogenei y in
he model: a Dynamic Fixed-E ec s (DFE) es ima o , and he PMG and he MG es ima o s.
The MG es ima o (Pesa an and Smi h 1995) elies on es ima ing N ime-se ies eg essions
and a e aging he coe icien s, whe eas he PMG es ima o (Pesa an e al. 1997,1999) elies
on a combina ion o pooling and a e aging o coe icien s, while DFE is based on pooling
o all coe icien s. Those me hods a e used o es ima e and check he obus ness o he
esul s ela ed o hypo heses H1, H2, and H3:
Economies 2024,12, 292 15 o 19
e ec s in he Eu ozone economies, and (4) he e ogeneous economic en i onmen , including
he e ogeneous iscal policy. The limi a ion o his esea ch e e s exac ly o he e ogeneous
iscal policy ac ions ha a e no included in he model, howe e , could in luence in la ion.
The e o e, we could conclude ha he majo i y o he Eu ozone economies (10 om
12 economies) eac ed in he con ex o adjus men s owa ds he long- un equilib ium
(coin eg a ion) ela ionship, which is a sign o a s abiliza ion mechanism wi hin a mone a y
union in he pe iod o in la iona y p essu es. Howe e , he asymme ic and he e ogeneous
esponse o Eu ozone membe s a es in he condi ion o pandemic and geopoli ical c ises,
especially ela ed o he co e-pe iphe y dicho omy, e e s o he limi a ion o ’one size i s
all’ mone a y policy. Finally, we conclude ha hypo hesis 3 (H3) is con i med because he
speed o adjus men o indi idual economies o long- un equilib ium is he e ogeneous in a
sample o 12 Eu ozone economies in he pe iod 2020q1–2023q4.
5.3. Double Robus ness Check
The es ima ion me hod, he PMG, was selec ed based on i s abili y o show ela ion-
ships be ween key a iables CPI, ENERGY PRICE, INTEREST RATE, and SBI and o sol e
p oblems o he e ogenei y and non-s a iona i y in he da a. Fu he obus ness check is
conduc ed in wo ways: (a) a change in he es ima ion me hod using he DFE me hod; and
(b) a change in he sample.
The DFE es ima o is chosen since DFE also es ic s he coe icien s o he coin eg a ing
ec o o be equal ac oss all he panels, simila o he PMG es ima o ; howe e , he di e ence
is in he e o -co ec ion pa ame e s. Namely, a DFE model also es ic s he speed o he
adjus men coe icien o be equal (Blackbu ne and F ank 2007), he e o e DFE model could
ep esen only homogeneous coe icien s. Resul s o he DFE model (Table 5, pa (a)) show
ha he long- un coin eg a ion ela ionship is signi ican be ween ENERGY PRICE and CPI
(0.3980 in DFE, and 0.3870 in PMG), and he e o -co ec ion pa ame e is signi ican and
nega i e showing adjus men s owa ds long- un equilib ium. Al hough he same dynamic
o adjus men owa ds long- un equilib ium is no ed, he magni ude o he adjus men s
is lowe in he model es ima ed by he DFE es ima o in compa ison o PMG (11.77% in
a DFE in compa ison o 60.17% in he PMG). The ela ionship wi h INTEREST RATE is
wi h an expec ed sign, bu insigni ican , he e o e, his ela ion is no con i med by DFE.
Mo eo e , he in luence o SBI is wi h expec ed sign and in ensi y o in luence. Howe e ,
he Hausman es could be used in o de o selec p e e ed es ima o s be ween he PMG,
MG, and DFE es ima o s. Resul s p esen ed in Table 5indica e ha he Hausman es
showed ha PMG is p e e ed o e he DFE model.
Table 5. Robus ness check: DFE es ima o and PMG es ima o in educed sample.
Dependen Va iable CPI
Pa (a)
DFE; N= 12, T= 16
Pa (b)
PMG; N= 12, T= 15
Coe . p-Value Coe . p-Value
Long-Run
equilib ium
ENERGY PRICE (θ1i) 0.3980 0.016 0.3814 0.000
INTEREST RATE (θ2i)
SBI (θ3i)
−0.2528 0.706 −0.1166 0.016
0.0076 0.030 0.0088 0.001
E o -Co ec ion (ϕi)−0.1177 0.008 −0.3319 0.000
∆ENERGY PRICE (δij) 0.0064 0.000 0.0093 0.005
∆INTEREST RATE (δij)−0.0767 0.723 0.5792 0.073
∆SBI (δij) 0.0051 0.010 0.0075 0.000
µi−0.1614 0.585 0.2394 0.001
χ2p- alue χ2p- alue
Hausman es 3.51 0.3192 1.86 0.289
Sou ce: Au ho s’ calcula ion based on S a a 15.
Economies 2024,12, 292 16 o 19
The second way o check he obus ness o he esul s is o change sample size and
in ha way es whe he he esul s a e s able. In he selec ed sample, i is chosen o lea e
ou da a in ela ion o he i s qua al o 2020, he e o e he dimension Tis sho ened
o
15 uni s
. Bo h me hods o es ima ion, PMG and MG, we e unde aken in he educed
sample, and esul s showed ha he p e e able me hod o es ima ion is PMG. All he esul s
in ela ion o he PMG me hod (Table 5, pa (b)) co espond o he ini ial esul s. Namely,
he esul s indica ed ha ENERGY PRICE gene a es a coin eg a ion ela ionship wi h CPI,
and ha in luence is signi ican and posi i e, wi h a simila magni ude o in luence (0.3814
in compa ison o 0.3870 in he ini ial model). Mo eo e , he long- un ela ionship be ween
CPI and INTEREST RATE also exis s, wi h nega i e e ec s, since he g ow h o INTEREST
RATE educes alues o CPI (
−
0.1166, and
−
0.1802 in he ini ial sample). Finally, he
es ima ed e o -co ec ion pa ame e is signi ican and nega i e wi h a simila le el o
in ensi y. Those esul s show ha adjus men owa ds long- un equilib ium is 33.19%,
while in he ini ial model, he es ima ed alue o adjus men is 60.17%.
Double obus ness check using he DFE me hod o es ima ion and change in he
sample, showed ha in he homogeneous and he e ogeneous pa o he model, he same
a iables signi ican ly a ec CPI, wi h he same sign and simila in luence o he a e age
Eu ozone economies du ing he c ises pe iods. Hence, we could claim ha he esul s a e
s able ac oss di e en es ima o s and change in he sample.
6. Conclusions
A e se e al decades o ela i ely s able and low in la ion, he global pandemic and
geopoli ical c ises o e hea ed in la iona y p essu e. I seemed ha a leas in he Eu ozone,
using common es ic i e mone a y policy, in la ion di e en ial would be supp essed. This
esea ch con ibu es o he as li e a u e in his a ea by highligh ing wo impo an aspec s:
key d i ing o ces o he consume p ice indices g ow h and ulne abili y o he Eu ozone
ela ed o he e ogeneous adjus men o economies owa ds long- un equilib ium ela ionships.
In a he e ogeneous, nons a iona y, dynamic mac o-panel amewo k, ene gy p ices,
supply bo lenecks, unemploymen a e, and in e es a e a e b ough in o connec ion wi h
luc ua ions in consume p ice indices. These ela ionships a e es ima ed o 12 Eu ozone
economies in he c isis pe iod 2020q1–2023q4 using PMG/MG es ima o s. Based on he
ob ained esul s, a e he double obus ness check, we can conclude ha aking in o accoun
supply and demand side d i ing o ces, he p edominan de e mina ion o in la iona y
p essu es comes om he supply side. Namely, he e is a long- un posi i e equilib ium
ela ionship be ween he g ow h o ene gy p ices and he g ow h o he CPI, and be ween
he index ep esen ing supply bo lenecks (SBI) and he g ow h o CPI, while he long- un
ela ionship wi h he unemploymen a e is insigni ican . Tha esul is in line wi h B yson
e al. (2024), Hansen e al. (2023), Ne i e al. (2023), and Ne i (2024) poin ing ou ha
in la iona y p essu es in pandemic and geopoli ical c ises a e di ec ly de e mined by supply
side shocks, and no by demand shi . Namely, in addi ion o he ise in ene gy p ices, he
in e up ed supply chains du ing he pandemic c isis, and he s oppages and es ic ions
in p oduc ion de ec ed du ing he geopoli ical c isis pu upwa d p essu e on p ices.
On he o he hand, he pape analyzes he esponse o economic policy-make s, which
was ca ied ou in he o m o a igh ening o mone a y policy h ough he g ow h o
in e es a es, and which mani es ed i sel as an adequa e solu ion o educing in la iona y
p essu es in almos all analyzed coun ies. Based on he ob ained esul s, we con i med
he heo e ical assump ion ha he e is a long- un equilib ium ela ionship be ween he
in e es a e and he CPI which is homogeneous and nega i e due o he unique mone a y
policy on a sample o he Eu ozone economies.
Howe e , he he e ogeneous speed o adjus men o indi idual economies o he
long- un equilib ium ela ionship e eals ha common policy in he case o he Eu ozone
could ha e he e ogeneous e ec s. Di e en in ensi y o adjus men s owa ds long- un
ela ionships indica es ha economies a e a ec ed di e gen ly by he c isis, bu also ha
he e ec s o coun e cyclical mone a y policy mani es hemsel es di e sly. Namely, he
Economies 2024,12, 292 17 o 19
speed o e u ning o he long- un equilib ium di e s signi ican ly: in he economies wi h
he highes ea o in la ion, adjus men s a e he highes (Ge many and Po ugal), medium
in ensi y o adjus men s we e de ec ed in Spain, Ne he lands, I aly, and F ance, and he
lowes adjus men s we e de ec ed in Finland, Belgium, and Aus ia. In he las g oup o
economies, in la iona y p essu es we e he lowes in he analyzed sample, and in hose
economies, he in la ion could be conside ed as o e come. Mo eo e , in some pe iphe al
economies o he Eu ozone, i is insigni ican , speci ically, I eland and G eece. Namely, he
di ec link be ween ene gy p ices and CPI, as well as in e es a e and CPI we e b oken
in hose economies. Due o he he e ogenei y and sensi i i y o indi idual coun ies, he
e ec s o common measu es a e no he same in he economies o he Eu ozone, and he
economic policymake s had o implemen addi ional measu es in mo e sensi i e economies
o s i e o deepe in eg a ion o he economies, which would imply g ea e coo dina ion
o economic cycles and he a oidance o s uc u al imbalances.
Insigni ican o di e gen adjus men s owa ds equilib ium a e conside ed as a sou ce
o Eu ozone ins abili y and as a igge o u he imbalances. This esul is in co ela ion
wi h he esul s o he pape (Gla aški and Puca 2020) indica ing ha in he sho - un
he e is e iden di e gence and he e ogenei y be ween co e and pe iphe al economies o
he Eu ozone, as well as Ca nazza and Libe a i (2021) which a e poin ing ou asymme ic
consequences o symme ic shocks.
I is concluded ha he pandemic and he geopoli ical c isis ha e shown he he e o-
genei y and ulne abili y o he Eu ozone economies. Reasons ha di ec ly a gue he
in e p e ed he e ogeneous esul s can be p esen ed h ough (a) cen al e sus pe iphe al
economies o he Eu ozone, (b) he e ogeneous economic policies, especially, iscal policy,
and (c) and he e ogeneous economic en i onmen . Since he majo i y o he Eu ozone
economies (10 om 12 economies) eac ed in he con ex o adjus men s owa d he long-
un equilib ium ela ionship, ha could be a sign o a s abiliza ion mechanism wi hin
a mone a y union in a pe iod o in la iona y p essu es. Howe e , he he e ogeneous e-
sponse o Eu ozone membe s a es in he condi ion o pandemic and geopoli ical c ises,
especially ela ed o cen al-pe iphe y asymme y, e e s o he limi a ion o “one size i s
some” mone a y policy. Tha would be e en mo e p onounced i he sample in he esea ch
included all Eu ozone economies. The eali y is ha “one size i s some” policy and ha is
impo an o ake app op ia e measu es in he o m o coun e cyclical ac ions in o de o
main ain p ice s abili y wi hou jeopa dizing o he mac oeconomic indica o s. Mo eo e ,
(de)coo dina ion o mone a y policy ac ions wi h implemen ed iscal policy ins umen s, in
con ex coun e cyclical ac ion on in la ion, as well as on eal a iables, such as eal GDP,
will be he subjec o ou u u e esea ch.
Lessons om he ecen c ises o he policy-make s is ha he ques ion o he e ogene-
i y and unsus ainabili y o he Eu ozone would be asked un il deepe economic in eg a ion
since ha common mone a y policy wi h he e ogeneous (coo dina ed) iscal policy is al-
ways a sign o he sys ema ic isk o policy-make s. Especially in he pe iod o c isis, i
he common mone a y policy is suppo ed by common iscal policy, mac oeconomic goals
will be ul illed o a g ea e ex en , bo h in he con ex o in la iona y p essu es and in he
domain o he eal economy. On he con a y, di e gence and he e ogenei y wi hin he
Eu ozone will only in ensi y, opening he space o na ional disc e iona y ac ions.
Au ho Con ibu ions: Concep ualiza ion, J.P. and O.G.; me hodology, O.G.; so wa e, J.P. and M.B.;
alida ion, O.G.; o mal analysis, O.G.; in es iga ion, J.P.; esou ces, J.P. and M.B.; da a cu a ion, J.P.;
w i ing—o iginal d a p epa a ion, J.P. and O.G.; w i ing— e iew and edi ing, J.P., O.G. and M.B.;
isualiza ion, M.B. All au ho s ha e ead and ag eed o he published e sion o he manusc ip .
Funding: This esea ch was unded by he P o incial Sec e a ia o Highe Educa ion and Scien i ic
Resea ch, Au onomous P o ince o Voj odina, Republic o Se bia. P ojec i le: “Coo dina ion o
economic policies in he unc ion o Eu opean in eg a ion”, no. 142-451-3436/2023-03.
In o med Consen S a emen : No applicable.
Da a A ailabili y S a emen : The o iginal da a p esen ed in he s udy a e included in he a icle.
Economies 2024,12, 292 18 o 19
Con lic s o In e es : The au ho s decla e no con lic o in e es .
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