Practical guide to monitoring rural development policy in Ireland: Opportunities and challenges

Kelly, Elish; McGuinness, Séamus; Devlin, Anne Research Report Practical guide to monitoring rural development policy in Ireland: Opportunities and challenges Research Series, No. 173 Provided in Cooperation with: The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Dublin Suggested Citation: Kelly, Elish; McGuinness, Séamus; Devlin, Anne (2024) : Practical guide to monitoring rural development policy in Ireland: Opportunities and challenges, Research Series, No. 173, The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Dublin, https://doi.org/10.26504/rs173 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/298363 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. 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If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ PRACTICAL GUIDE TO MONITORING RURAL DEVELOPMENT POLICY IN IRELAND: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES ELISH KELLY, SEAMUS MCGUINNESS AND ANNE DEVLIN RESEARCH SERIES NUMBER 173 JANUARY 2024 E V I D E N C E F O R P O L I C Y PRACTICAL GUIDE TO MONITORING RURAL DEVELOPMENT POLICY IN IRELAND: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES ELISH KELLY SEAMUS MCGUINNESS ANNE DEVLIN January 2024 RESEARCH SERIES NUMBER 173 Available to download from www.esri.ie Ó The Economic and Social Research Institute Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2 https://doi.org/10.26504/rs173 This Open Access work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. ABOUT THE ESRI The mission of the Economic and Social Research InsUtute (ESRI) is to advance evidence-based policymaking that supports economic sustainability and social progress in Ireland. ESRI researchers apply the highest standards of academic excellence to challenges facing policymakers, focusing on 12 areas of criUcal importance to 21st-century Ireland. The InsUtute was founded in 1960 by a group of senior civil servants led by Dr T.K. Whitaker, who idenUfied the need for independent and in-depth research analysis to provide a robust evidence base for policymaking in Ireland. Since then, the InsUtute has remained commi[ed to independent research and its work is free of any expressed ideology or poliUcal posiUon. The InsUtute publishes all research reaching the appropriate academic standard, irrespecUve of its findings or who funds the research. The quality of its research output is guaranteed by a rigorous peer-review process. ESRI researchers are experts in their fields and are commi[ed to producing work that meets the highest academic standards and pracUces. The work of the InsUtute is disseminated widely in books, journal arUcles and reports. ESRI publicaUons are available to download, free of charge, from its website. AddiUonally, ESRI staff communicate research findings at regular conferences and seminars. The ESRI is a company limited by guarantee, answerable to its members and governed by a council comprising 14 members who represent a cross-secUon of ESRI members from academia, civil services, state agencies, businesses and civil society. The InsUtute receives an annual grant-in-aid from the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform to support the scienUfic and public-interest elements of the InsUtute’s acUviUes; the grant accounted for an average of 30 per cent of the InsUtute’s income over the lifeUme of the last research strategy. The remaining funding comes from research programmes supported by government departments and agencies, public bodies and compeUUve research programmes. Further informaUon is available at www.esri.ie THE AUTHORS Elish Kelly is Senior Research Officer at the ESRI, an adjunct associate professor at Trinity College Dublin (TCD) and a research fellow at the InsUtute of Labor Economics (IZA) in the University of Bonn. Seamus McGuinness is a research professor at the ESRI, an adjunct professor at TCD and a research fellow at the IZA in the University of Bonn. Anne Devlin is Research Officer at the ESRI and an adjunct associate professor at TCD. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The research undertaken in this report was funded by the Department of Rural and Community Development (DRCD) as part of its Joint Research Programme with the ESRI. We would like to thank those individuals within the DRCD who provided support and assistance during the project, including reviewing earlier drags of the research. In parUcular, we are grateful to Kenneth Jordan and Bróna Ní Chobhthaigh. Our thanks also go to Alan Barre[, Director of the ESRI; John CurUs, head of the Economic Analysis Division within the ESRI; and to the independent reviewers of the report. DISCLAIMER This report has been accepted for publicaUon by the InsUtute, which does not itself take insUtuUonal policy posiUons. All ESRI Research Series reports are peerreviewed prior to publicaUon. The authors are solely responsible for the content and the views expressed. TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................................................... V LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................................................................... V CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 2 KPIS TO MONITOR THE EFFECTIVENESS OF OUR RURAL FUTURE: RURAL DEVELOPMENT POLICY 2021–2025 ...................................................................................................... 5 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................................... 14 TABLES 2.1 Potential KPIs to monitor Our Rural Future’s schemes: Currently available and sixway classification ............................................................................................................. 6 2.2 KPIs for monitoring Our Rural Future’s key deliverables: Currently available at sixway urban–rural classification ......................................................................................... 7 2.3 KPIs for monitoring Our Rural Future’s key deliverables: Currently not available at six-way urban–rural classification .................................................................................... 8 2.4 Other potential KPIs for monitoring overall rural well-being in Ireland ........................ 11 ABBREVIATIONS CSO Central Statistics Office DRCD Department of Rural and Community Development ESRI Economic and Social Research Institute KPI key performance indicator LFS Labour Force Survey SILC Survey on Income and Living Conditions CHAPTER 1 Introduction As part of the research programme between the Department of Rural and Community Development (DRCD) and the Economic and Social Research InsUtute (ESRI), the ESRI’s second research output, Developing a Framework to Monitor Rural Development Policy in Ireland: Opportuni<es and Challenges (Kelly et al., 2023) examined a range of potenUal metrics that the DRCD could adopt in order to monitor the impact of the government’s Our Rural Future: Rural Development Policy 2021–2025. Policy evaluaUon is an essenUal tool of government because it ensures that the objecUves of policies and programmes are being met and that tax revenues are being well spent. In many instances, policy evaluaUon involves using standard counterfactual analysis to measure the impact of a programme on a well-defined outcome variable, for example, the change in unemployment rates following the introducUon of a wage subsidy offered to firms hiring persons on the Live Register. However, in many policy areas with wide-ranging and cross-cupng objecUves, standard counterfactual analysis is not possible and policy evaluaUon takes the form of monitoring changes in key performance indicators (KPIs) that are linked to specific policy objecUves and general well-being levels. Given the large-scale budgets associated with rural and community development, it is essenUal that Ireland’s data infrastructure is sufficient to allow for effecUve policy evaluaUon in these areas. The focus of this pracUcal guide is to present those KPIs idenUfied in the accompanying report, Developing a Framework to Monitor Rural Development Policy in Ireland: Opportuni<es and Challenges (Kelly et al., 2023), that are currently available to the DRCD to monitor the impact of Our Rural Future. In parUcular, we focus on those indicators to which the six-way urban–rural categorisaUon of Ireland schema from the Central StaUsUcs Office (CSO) is presently applied. A key finding from the study is that applying a standard urban–rural dichotomy to the development of KPIs is of limited value given that this classificaUon masks a large 2 | Practical guide to monitoring rural development policy in Ireland amount of heterogeneity across areas (Whelan et al., 2023). Thus, KPIs to which the six-way urban–rural classificaUon is applied to, or can be, allows for a much greater level of granularity in monitoring the impact of rural policies and the measurement of rural well-being. The six-way urban–rural classificaUon subdivides urban areas into: 1. cities; 2. satellite urban towns 3. independent urban towns and rural locaUons into: 4. rural areas with high urban influence; 5. rural areas with moderate urban influence; 6. highly rural/remote areas. The urban subdivision was undertaken on the basis of the proporUon of people in employment in ciUes, while the rural classificaUon was based on the proporUon of usual residents in employment in urban areas. We also present measures to which the six-way urban–rural categorisaUon is not currently applied but which we have idenUfied as being important for monitoring rural development in Ireland. In recent years, there has been increased a[enUon paid at the EU and OECD level to the importance of the rural community and its development. Ireland has been no excepUon in acknowledging and emphasising the importance of rural communiUes in the country’s growth and development, along with the well-being of its ciUzens. The government’s Our Rural Future policy was designed as an ambiUous plan for rural Ireland that not only took advantage of opportuniUes in rural locaUons but also miUgated against the risks and challenges that these areas are facing. The plan centres around eight key themes: 1. optimising digital connectivity; 2. supporting employment and careers; 3. revitalising rural towns and villages; 4. enhancing participation, leadership and resilience in rural communities; 5. enhancing public services; KPIs to monitor the effectiveness of Our Rural Future | 9 Required KPI Spatial level required Available KPI Spatial level available Source IV. Rural living 1. Length of commute Six-way classification Population aged 5 years and over by journey time to work, school or college Small area CSO: Census 2. Car usage Six-way classification Number of cars per household Small area CSO: Census V. Rural Ireland’s unique tourism, culture and heritage 1. Visitor numbers by region Region Domestic travel by Irish residents County visited CSO: Household Travel Survey 2. Number of attractions County Attractions All attractions are listed with their address including county Fáilte Ireland 3. Number of accommodation places County Accommodation All accommodation s are listed with their address including county Fáilte Ireland 4. Number of activities County Activities All places to do activities are listed with their address including county Fáilte Ireland VI. Supporting communities to create their own future 1. Political participation Six-way classification How much respondents believe that the political system allows people to have a say in what the government does Degree of urbanisation (city, town or rural) CSO: Trust Survey VII. Agriculture, the marine and forestry3 1. Number of female farmers Spatial level not important Family and regular nonfamily workers (persons) on all farms Region CSO: Census of Agriculture 2. Number of family farms in female ownership Spatial level not important Family farms Region CSO: Farm Structure Survey 3. Numbers aged less than 40 working in agriculture, forestry and fishing Spatial level not important Numbers aged less than 40 working in agriculture, forestry and fishing, separately for self-employed and employees Region CSO: LFS 3 Teagasc’s National Farm Survey, including their Sustainability Reports data, may contain additional KPIs that could be used to monitor this key deliverable. 10 | Practical guide to monitoring rural development policy in Ireland Required KPI Spatial level required Available KPI Spatial level available Source VIII. Islands and coastal communities 1. Job creation on the islands Islands only Jobchurn components: job creation (numbers) National CSO: Jobchurn IX. Transitioning to a climate-neutral economy 1. Demand for electric vehicles in rural areas Six-way classification New and second-hand private cars County CSO Vehicle Licensing Statistics Source: Kelly et al., 2023. As in Developing a Framework to Monitor Rural Development Policy in Ireland: Opportuni<es and Challenges (Kelly et al., 2023), we present here, in Table 2.4, KPIs for other ‘high-level outcome’ categories, such as health, well-being and educaUon. These types of KPIs are consistent with the emphasis in the literature (e.g., OECD, 2020) on the importance of taking a holisUc approach to monitoring rural development and well-being. Of the 17 ‘high level outcome’ KPIs idenUfied, four are available at the six-way urban–rural geographic classificaUon level, while the remaining 13 are not. In presenUng these ‘high-level outcome’ KPIs, we also include relevant indicators contained in the CSO’s Well-being InformaUon Hub. Some of these ‘high-level outcome’ indicators could also be used to monitor how well the government’s current rural policy is meeUng its key deliverables. For example, the ‘deprivaUon’, ‘income and wealth’ and ‘economy and jobs’ KPIs could be used to monitor the effecUveness of Our Rural Future in meeUng its ‘revitalising rural towns and villages’ key deliverable. KPIs to monitor the effectiveness of Our Rural Future | 11 TABLE 2.4 OTHER POTENTIAL KPIS FOR MONITORING OVERALL RURAL WELL-BEING IN IRELAND Required KPI Spatial level required Available KPI Spatial level available Source I. Deprivation 1. At risk of poverty, consistent poverty, deprivation Six-way classification Key national indicators of poverty and social exclusion Six-way classification CSO: Urban and Rural Life in Ireland 2. Deprivation Index Six-way classification Change in the percentage of small areas which are deemed most deprived over time Small area (some calculation needed) Pobal HP [HaasePratschke] Deprivation Index II. Income and wealth 1. Households making ends meet with great difficulty Six-way classification Percentage of persons in the total population who are in the state of enforced inability to make ends meet Urban–rural split CSO: SILC III. Economy and jobs 1. Good jobs Urban–rural Percentage of people on permanent contracts (or on temporary contracts and not seeking permanent work), who earn what could be deemed a living wage and are not overworked (working more than 49 hours/week) Such a variable is not available but could be generated from various CSO sources primarily the LFS IV. Access to services and transport 1. Distance to national primary and secondary roads Six-way classification Population in 2016: distance to national primary and secondary road network Region and county CSO: Measuring Distance to Everyday Services in Ireland 2. Access to everyday services: GP, pharmacy, bank, garda station, fire station, library, etc. Six-way classification Population in 2016 to everyday services Region and county CSO: Measuring Distance to Everyday Services in Ireland 3. Access to local services Six-way classification Households who were able to access local services (level of accessibility) Urban–rural split CSO: SILC Report on Household Amenities and Access to Services 12 | Practical guide to monitoring rural development policy in Ireland Required KPI Spatial level required Available KPI Spatial level available Source V. Well-being 1. Population with at least two people to whom they are close enough to count on if they had a serious problem Six-way classification How many people (e.g., neighbours and friends) persons aged 15 years and over can count on in the event of a serious problem Region CSO: Irish Health Survey Carers VI. Health 1. Prevalence of disabilities Six-way classification Population usually resident and present with a disability Six-way classification CSO: Urban and Rural Life in Ireland 2. Self-rated health Six-way classification Population: general health Six-way classification CSO: Urban and Rural Life in Irelanda 3. Mental health Six-way classification All persons aged 15 and over, mental-health status in previous two weeks Region CSO: Irish Health Surveya 4. Involvement in sports or physical activities Six-way classification Persons aged 15 years and over who participate in sport or other physical activity Region, degree of urbanisation CSO: Quarterly National Household Survey Sports and Physical Exerciseb VII. Education 1. Educational attainment Six-way classification Population aged 15 years and over by sex and highest level of education completed Small area CSO: Census 2. Engagement with further education Six-way classification Persons aged 25–64 who wanted to participate more in further education Region CSO: Adult Education Survey VIII. Housing and built environment 1. New dwelling completions Six-way classification Recently constructed dwellings Local electoral area, local authority, region CSO: New Dwelling Completions IX. Environment, climate and biodiversity 1. Pollution, grime or other environmental problems Six-way classification Percentage of households who face the problem of pollution, grime or other environmental problems in the local area such as smoke, dust, unpleasant smells or polluted water Urban–rural split CSO: SILC KPIs to monitor the effectiveness of Our Rural Future | 13 Required KPI Spatial level required Available KPI Spatial level available Source X. Other 1. Reliance on social welfare Six-way classification Proportion of households where working-age social welfare was the majority income Six-way classification CSO: Urban and Rural Life in Ireland Notes: (a) The Department of Health’s ‘Healthy Ireland Survey’ also likely contains such data. (b) Data also available in Growing Up in Ireland, The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA) and the Irish Sports Monitor (ISM). For the most part, the data sources for the idenUfied KPIs in Tables 2.2–2.4 are all publicly available, with the majority being collated by the CSO and available on their website. In some instances, the idenUfied KPIs have been drawn from state agency data sources, such as Pobal’s HP Index. For all KPI data, the DRCD will need to hold discussions with the relevant organisaUons that hold the required data to ensure that they obtain the data needed to monitor the impact of Our Rural Future, and for the data to be provided at the most detailed spaUal level feasible. In the context of monitoring the effecUveness of the current rural development policy, if the CSO’s six-way urban–rural classificaUon is applied to more available data, then the number of available indicators to monitor the current policy’s effecUveness in achieving its key deliverables would rise from nine to 45, while the number of KPIs available to monitor the plan’s effecUveness in improving overall rural well-being would increase to 69 from four. For this reason, it is imperaUve that efforts are made to achieve this: effecUve monitoring of the impacts of rural policy iniUaUves in Ireland is not achievable with just nine metrics available at the required spaUal level. REFERENCES Central Statistics Office (CSO) (2023). ‘Well-being information hub’, www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/hubs/p-wbhub/wellbeinginformationhub (accessed 30 November 2023). Department for Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs (Northern Ireland) (2022). Rural Policy Framework for NI, www.daerani.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/daera/rural%20policy%20framework %20for%20ni%20-%20full%20version%20%28march%202022%29.pdf (accessed 30 November 2023). Kelly, E., McGuinness, S., and Devlin, A. (2023). Developing a Framework to Monitor Rural Development Policy in Ireland: Opportunities and Challenges, ESRI Research Series No. 172, Dublin: ESRI. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (2020). Rural Wellbeing: Geography of Opportunities – Policy Highlights, www.oecd.org/regional/rural-development/PH_Rural-WellBeing.pdf#:~:text=Rural%20Wellbeing%20Policy%20Framework%20provides%20guidance%20for%3A%20Delive ring,role%20of%20the%20tradeable%20sector%2C%20and%20absolute%20adv antages%29 (accessed 30 November 2023). Whelan, A., Devlin, A., and McGuinness, S. (2023). ‘Barriers to social inclusion and levels of urbanisation: Does it matter where you live?’ Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy, and Society, rsad036. 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