Kosnik, Lea-Rachel
A icle
Wha ha e economis s been doing o he las 50 yea s?
A ex analysis o published academic esea ch om
1960-2010
Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessmen E-Jou nal
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Kiel Ins i u e o he Wo ld Economy – Leibniz Cen e o Resea ch on Global Economic Challenges
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Kosnik, Lea-Rachel (2015) : Wha ha e economis s been doing o he las 50
yea s? A ex analysis o published academic esea ch om 1960-2010, Economics: The Open-
Access, Open-Assessmen E-Jou nal, ISSN 1864-6042, Kiel Ins i u e o he Wo ld Economy (I W),
Kiel, Vol. 9, Iss. 2015-13, pp. 1-38,
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Wha Ha e Economis s Been Doing o he Las
50 Yea s? A Tex Analysis o Published Academic
Resea ch om 1960–2010
Lea-Rachel Kosnik
Abs ac
This pape p esen s he esul s o a ex based explo a o y s udy o o e 20,000 academic
a icles published in se en op esea ch jou nals om 1960–2010. The goal is o in es iga e he
gene al esea ch oci o economis s o e he las i y yea s, how (i a all) hey ha e changed
o e ime, and wha ends (i any) can be disce ned om a b oad body o he op academic
esea ch in he ield. O he 19 JEL-code based ields s udied in he li e a u e, mos ha e
e ained a cons an le el o a en ion o e he ime pe iod o his s udy, howe e , a no able
excep ion is ha o mac oeconomics which has unde gone a signi ican ly diminishing le el
o esea ch a en ion in he las couple o decades, ac oss all he jou nals unde s udy; a he
same ime, he “mic o ounda ions” o mac oeconomic pape s appea s o be inc easing. O he
esul s on co-au ho ship ends and dep h o esea ch a icles a e also p esen ed.
(Published as Su ey and O e iew)
JEL A11 B4
Keywo ds Tex analysis; economics esea ch; esea ch di e si y; opic analysis
Au ho s
Lea-Rachel Kosnik, Depa men o Economics, Uni e si y o Missou i-S . Louis, USA,
[email p o ec ed]
Ci a ion Lea-Rachel Kosnik (2015). Wha Ha e Economis s Been Doing o he Las 50 Yea s? A Tex Analysis
o Published Academic Resea ch om 1960–2010. Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessmen E-Jou nal, 9
(2015-13): 1—38. h p://dx.doi.o g/10.5018/economics-ejou nal.ja.2015-13
www.economics-ejou nal.o g 2
“The ideas o economis s and poli ical philosophe s, bo h when hey a e igh
and when hey a e w ong a e mo e powe ul han is commonly unde s ood.
Indeed, he wo ld is uled by li le else. P ac ical men, who belie e hemsel es
o be qui e exemp om any in ellec ual in luences, a e usually sla es o some
de unc economis .”
John Mayna d Keynes
1 In oduc ion
I he economics p o ession holds as much sway as Keynes amously a ibu ed o
i , i would be wo hwhile now and again o sel - e lec and analyze wha opics o
esea ch academic economis s ha e spen hei aluable ime in es iga ing. This
pape p esen s he esul s o a ex based explo a o y s udy o o e 20,000
academic a icles published in se en op esea ch jou nals om 1960–2010. The
goal is o in es iga e he gene al esea ch oci o economis s o e he las i y
yea s, how (i a all) hey ha e changed o e ime, and wha ends (i any) can be
disce ned om a b oad body o he op academic esea ch in he ield. I is wo h
no ing ha no a emp is made, in his pape , o in es iga e he ela i e impo ance
o quali y o he esea ch e o s o academic economis s o e his ime span, only
wha opics hey ha e in ac been s udying.
Tex ual analysis (some imes also called ‘con en analysis’ o ‘compu a ional
linguis ics’) in ol es he accumula ion o a la ge amoun o ex ( esea ch a icles,
digi ized books, online message boa ds, o wi e eeds, o example), cleaning
and pa sing he ex wi h unique algo i hms, and hen u ning he ex in o a
da abase whe e he wo ds hemsel es a e s a is ically analyzed o ends and
co ela i e pa e ns (G imme and King 2010; Michel e al. 2011; E ans and
Fos e 2011). In e es ing social science examples o ecen ex ual analyses
include an in es iga ion o cul u e om Top Ten song ly ics (DeWall e al. 2011),
gende iden i ica ion in li e a y s yles (Koppel e al. 2002), media slan in
newspape s (Gen zkow and Shapi o 2010), and ba gaining powe in US-Ame ican
Indian ea ies (Spi ling 2010).
This p ojec u ilizes all ull-leng h monog aphs published in se en op jou nals
in he ield o economics om 1960–2010. The ex is o ganized in a ela ional
www.economics-ejou nal.o g 3
da abase, mapped o a ious cha ac e is ics o each a icle (au ho , yea , jou nal,
e c.) and he en i e co pus, as well as cu s o he da a by he speci ic
cha ac e is ics, is analyzed. The main esul is ha , simila o esul s ound in
Ca d and DellaVigna (2013), he majo i y o ields in economics ha e main ained
a ela i ely cons an le el o a en ion o e he yea s. A majo excep ion, howe e ,
is mac oeconomics which, as in Kim e al. (2006) and Kelly and B ues le (2011),
has shown a dec eased le el o a en ion o e he pas ew decades, ac oss all he
majo jou nals; a he same ime, mo e e ined analysis inds ha he mic o-
ounda ions o published mac oeconomic pape s ha e inc eased. O he in e es ing
esul s include e idence o an inc easing le el o ma hema iza ion o economics
o e he decades, and o Ag icul u al and Na u al Resou ce Economics o be an
ou lie as compa ed o he o he ields, wi h signi ican ly highe co-au ho ship
e sus solo au ho ship le els.
2 Li e a u e Re iew
The e is a ich his o y o sel - e lec ion in he academic economics li e a u e.
Nume ous au ho s ha e ied o analyze wha esea che s do, wha opics hey end
o ocus on, and wha (i any) p ac ical impac economics esea ch has had
(Sc oggs 1975; G ange 1994; Medema and Samuels 1996; C oppe 2000; Fuchs
2002; Pa dey and Smi h 2004; Sen 2008; Kelly and B ues le 2011; Hame mesh
2013). A ela ed, simila ly sel -in ospec i e heme in he economics li e a u e
in ol es s udies o academic depa men s (Colande 1989), academic jou nals
(Hawkins e al. 1973; Eagly 1975; Kagann and Leeson 1978; Ellis and Du den
1991; Laband e al. 2002; Ca d and DellaVigna 2013; S e n 2013), co-au ho ship
a es (Laband and Tollison 2000; Goyal e al. 2006; Hame mesh 2015), and o he
measu es o in ellec ual collabo a ion and dissemina ion in he ield ha
some imes ouch on opical analysis and wha economis s ac ually esea ch
(Du den and Ellis 1993; Kim e al. 2006).
These discussions, ankings, and lis s ha e been a ound o decades, all
o e ing di e ing iews on he ele ance o economics esea ch and i s ending
opics. The abili y o come up wi h obus , empi ical-based conclusions om
hem, howe e , has been limi ed. Mos o he e idence p esen ed akes he o m o
simple coun s o esea ch a icles, classi ied in o b oad ca ego ies de e mined by
www.economics-ejou nal.o g 4
he esea che (Hame mesh 2013). Due o he labo ious na u e o his ca ego i-
za ion p ocess, whe e an indi idual has o ead and ca ego ize each and e e y
a icle, such empi ical e idence is o en selec and composed o ela i ely small
sample sizes. O he o ms o empi ical e idence on he esea ch ends in
academic economics include coun s o JEL codes (Ca d and DellaVigna 2013),
ci a ion based analysis (Du den and Ellis 1993; Kim e al. 2006) su eys o
p o essionals in he ield, and eadings o Nobel p ize accep ance speeches (Smi h
e al. 2004). None o his e idence is based on he ex o he ac ual esea ch i sel ;
ins ead, i is all b oad ca ego iza ion and summa iza ion. To da e, he e doesn’
appea o ha e been any a emp s o c ea e quan i iable a iables, o example on
equency o opical keywo ds o e ime, de i ed om some hing objec i ely
calcula ed in he li e a u e i sel ( om he ull-leng h monog aphs, o e en om
jus he a icle i les o abs ac s). Wi h he de elopmen o compu a ional
linguis ic analysis, howe e , he possibili y now exis s o empi ically summa ize
and es sco es o esea ch a icles o opical hemes in consis en , objec i e ways.
One o he con ibu ions o his pape , he e o e, is i s unique me hodological ake
(i.e. ex analysis) on a his o ically popula opic.
Some o he ea lies esea ch in ol ing compu e -aided1 ex ual analysis was
done in he ields o psychology (Sex on e al. 1999) and communica ions
(S ephen 1999). O e he pas decade i has g own o include in e es ing s udies in
o he ields including poli ical science (Gen zkow and Shapi o 2010; Sp iling
2010), li e a u e (Koppel e al. 2002), and e en eligious s udies (De showi z e al.
2011). Bu he p e alence o ex ual analysis in he economics li e a u e is slim
(Kosnik 2014). The e ha e been a ew no able inance pape s, such as on he
abili y o s ock message boa ds o p edic he Dow Jones Indus ial A e age
(An weile and F ank 2004) and he e ec o nega i e wo ds in he Wall S ee
Jou nal on s ock ma ke e u ns (Te lock 2007), bu ex ual analysis in he
economics li e a u e is s ill in i s in ancy.
Those ex ual analyses ha ha e been published in he social sciences
li e a u es appea o ake one o wo o ms: explo a o y s udies, o analy ical in-
_________________________
1 Non-compu e -aided ex analysis has a much longe his o y. William Glads one, o example,
used i in he la e 1800s o p edic ha he ancien G eeks we e colo blind (Ded ick 1998); he did
his by allying he colo wo ds ound in wo ks by Home and no ed ha pa icula colo s ne e
appea ed.
www.economics-ejou nal.o g 5
es iga ions. Explo a o y s udies do no pu po o p o e speci ic hypo heses
s a ed a p io i, ins ead, hey in ol e equency and pa e n analysis in o de o
objec i ely analyze a ange o ex in he hopes o unco e ing in iguing esul s
ha may hen lead o analy ical in es iga ions wi h app op ia e hypo heses. Fo
example, ex ual analysis o he op academic jou nals in he ield o
communica ions (S ephen 1999) was able o highligh which sub opics wi hin he
ield ecei ed he mos published a en ion, in which yea s, and om which
speci ic jou nals.2 A subsequen analy ical in es iga ion (S ephen 2000) o hese
esea ch a icles ocused mo e speci ically on he ques ion o whe he he e was
gende bias in published academic esea ch in he communica ions ield. An
explana o y app oach is aken wi h his p ojec whe e we begin wi hou any s a ed
a p io hypo heses, and p oceed wi h equency analysis owa ds a ew en a i e,
pe haps sugges i e conclusions om he da a.3
3 Da a
The da a o his p ojec cons i u es 20,321 a icles published in he ollowing
se en op- ie academic jou nals om 1960–2010: Ame ican Economic Re iew,
Econome ica, Jou nal o Economic Li e a u e, Jou nal o Economic Pe spec i es,
Jou nal o Poli ical Economy, Qua e ly Jou nal o Economics, and Re iew o
Economic S udies. The goal was o choose op jou nals in he ield and his lis
was chosen a e conside ing a numbe o di e en ankings, including Engemann
and Wall (2009), Kalai zidakis e al. (2003), and a a ie y o online lis ings.
P e ious esea ch in es iga ing ends in economics has also concen a ed on he
jou nals in his lis (Laband and Tollison 2000; Laband e al. 2002; Ca d and
DellaVigna 2013; Hamme mesh 2013).4 The jou nals chosen a e gene al in e es
jou nals and no ield jou nals; a use ul ex ension o his esea ch in u u e yea s
_________________________
2 Simila so s o explo a o y s udies o he li e a u e ha e been done in o he ields, including
psychology (Ellis e al. 1988), and heal h s udies (Duncan 1991).
3 Fu u e esea ch e o s wi h his da ase a e planned ha will in es iga e hypo heses on esea ch
quali y, jou nal impac , policy ele ance, and o he impo an issues ha ex ual-based analysis
should ha e he abili y o ui ully explo e.
4 Al hough he e a e excep ions, such as Kim e al. (2006) and Kelly and B ues le (2011) which
concen a e on he abo e lis o jou nals and o he s.
www.economics-ejou nal.o g 6
will be o ex end he ex ual analysis o simila in es iga ions and ques ions wi hin
sub ields o economics.
We a e awa e ha he Jou nal o Economic Pe spec i es (JEP) and he
Jou nal o Economic Li e a u e (JEL) a e undamen ally dis inc om he o he
i e jou nals on he lis . The a icles in JEP and JEL a e ypically un e e eed and
he opics and a icles chosen a e hea ily edi o in luenced. We could ha e le
JEP and JEL ou o he analysis, bu we le hem in because hey con inuously
ank highly in all a ailable lis s o academic jou nal ankings. The goal o his
pape is o disce n op oci o academic economis s’ a en ion – no necessa ily i s
quali y, impo ance, o op imali y – and as such wha hese jou nals p oduce seems
ele an . In addi ion, because in he empi ical sec ion we b eak mos o he esul s
down by jou nal, lea ing JEP and JEL in doesn’ a ec any o he disagg ega ed
esul s.
All o he a icles published in he se en jou nals s udied, o he yea s 1960-
2010, is in he da abase. The co pus includes e e y hing esea ch-o ien ed ha has
been published in English,5 including ull-leng h monog aphs, ull-leng h book
e iews, and commen s and eplies.6 En ies no included in he da ase include
edi o ’s no es, con e ence announcemen s and p og ams, audi o ’s epo s, and
o he simila non- esea ch ocused en ies. Special symposium a icles a e in-
cluded.7 Gi en hese c i e ia he co pus includes 20,321 a icles, some desc ip i e
in o ma ion o which can be ound in Tables 1–3.
One o he c i icisms o ea lie esea ch on publica ion ends in he economics
li e a u e is ha he limi ed sample sizes hey a e usually based upon is so small;
one bene i o his esea ch is ha his is no he case.8 This da ase is ex ensi e
enough ha i can be ui ully analyzed om a numbe o di e en angles,
_________________________
5 Some o hese jou nals, especially in ea lie yea s, included he occasional a icle in F ench o
Ge man.
6 To be clea , sho book e iews and indexes, o example as appea p ima ily in he Jou nal o
Economic Li e a u e (JEL), a e no included.
7 I is wo h no ing, howe e , ha he Ame ican Economic Re iew’s annual Pape s and P oceedings
issue is no included.
8 The sample sizes in p e ious esea ch we e gene ally small (a single yea ’s wo h o esea ch
a icles, o example) because o en he a icles had o be hand coded; a labo ious and ime
consuming p ocess.
www.economics-ejou nal.o g 7
Table 1: A icle Coun s pe Decade
Jou nal
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
To als
Ame ican Economic Re iew
693
1,184
1,194
888
1,092
5,051
Econome ica
896
1,105
841
570
671
4,083
Jou nal o Economic Li e a u e
14
180
142
201
216
753
Jou nal o Economic Pe spec i es
0
0
144
615
620
1,379
Jou nal o Poli ical Economy
1,271
1,181
814
563
460
4,289
Qua e ly Jou nal o Economics
496
539
564
462
457
2,518
Re iew o Economic S udies
315
534
525
394
480
2,248
To als
3,685
4,723
4,224
3,693
3,996
20,321
Table 2: A icle Coun s by Page Leng h
Jou nal
0-5
5+
To als
Ame ican Economic Re iew
1,179
3,872
5,051
Econome ica
1,037
3,046
4,083
Jou nal o Economic Li e a u e
110
643
753
Jou nal o Economic Pe spec i es
161
1,218
1,379
Jou nal o Poli ical Economy
1,447
2,842
4,289
Qua e ly Jou nal o Economics
316
2,202
2,518
Re iew o Economic S udies
257
1,991
2,248
To als
4,507
15,814
20,321
Table 3: A icle Coun s by Numbe s o Au ho s
Jou nal
1
2
3
4
5+
To als
Ame ican Economic Re iew
2,778
1,788
415
60
10
5,051
Econome ica
2,551
1,218
270
42
2
4,083
Jou nal o Economic Li e a u e
557
152
34
7
3
753
Jou nal o Economic Pe spec i es
885
365
94
16
19
1,379
Jou nal o Poli ical Economy
3,053
1,003
205
26
2
4,289
Qua e ly Jou nal o Economics
1,465
782
223
35
13
2,518
Re iew o Economic S udies
1,328
735
161
21
3
2,248
To als
12,617
6,043
1,402
207
52
20,321
www.economics-ejou nal.o g 8
including by yea , by jou nal, by monog aph ype,9 o by deg ee o co-au ho ship
o example. I may be ha in e es ing ends eme ge om an analysis o he
en i e co pus, bu i may also be ha pa icula yea s o ime pe iods also exhibi
dis inc i e ends. A la ge o igina ing da ase will be use ul o analyzing speci ic
cu s o he da ase . A second con ibu ion o his pape , he e o e, is he uniquely
long ime span comp ehensi ely s udied.
4 A icle, Abs ac , o Ti le?
P e ious esea ch in es iga ing academic ends (in o he ields) om published
esea ch a icles (S ephen 2000; S ephen 1999; Ellis 1988) didn’ use he en i e
published monog aph, bu ocused solely on he abs ac s, o some imes e en jus
he i les. Doing so leads o a much smalle , mo e manageable ex da abase, as
well as as e compu e p ocessing imes, bu he e is a ea ha ocusing solely on
abs ac s o i les migh miss he la ge pic u e o wha a esea ch a icle is abou .
In his analysis, he e o e, he en i e co pus o ex is analyzed, as well as jus he
abs ac s, and jus he i les o compa ison pu poses.10 Each analysis has dis inc
ad an ages and disad an ages.
Fo example, analyzing he en i e esea ch a icles may gi e a comple e pic u e
o concep s and oci co e ed, howe e , i gi es sho e sh i o a icles wi h a
subs an ial amoun o ma hema ical no a ion. Ma hema ical no a ion is simply
skipped o e and igno ed by he algo i hms u ilized in his analysis, so i an a icle
highligh s a concep h ough ma hema ical no a ion, ha emphasis is missed. Fo
an a icle ha ins ead ge s all i s poin s ac oss in pu e na a i e, such a p oblem
does no occu .
Focusing on an analysis o abs ac s alone is one way a ound his p oblem.
Abs ac s end no o ha e any ma hema ical no a ion in hem wha soe e , and by
de ini ion hey ou line he impo an poin s o a esea ch a icle. An analysis o
abs ac s alone may gi e a mo e balanced o e iew o esea ch oci in economics.
_________________________
9 A icles less han 5 pages in leng h a e gene ally commen s and eplies, while a icles g ea e han
5 pages in leng h a e mo e o en ull-leng h esea ch pape s o book e iews.
10 All epo ed analyses ollowed s anda d ex analysis echniques, including cleaning and pa sing
(whe e ele an ) o he da a, and he dele ion o common, non-desc ip i e wo ds such as “a,” “ he,”
“o ,” and “and.”
www.economics-ejou nal.o g 15
Ca ego y
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
A
Gene al Economics and Teaching
0.72
0.70
0.60
0.67
0.57
B
His o y o Economic Though ,
Me hodology, and He e odox
App oaches
0.59
0.55
0.53
0.52
0.43
C
Ma hema ical and Quan i a i e
Me hods
1.63
1.67
1.93
2.18
2.12
D
Mic oeconomics
5.25
6.01
6.20
5.94
5.47
E
Mac oeconomics and Mone a y
Economics
5.62
5.16
4.67
3.97
3.23
F
In e na ional Economics
3.82
3.38
3.16
3.28
3.09
G
Financial Economics
2.74 2.37 2.24 2.33 2.20
H
Public Economics
1.90
2.15
2.26
2.27
2.11
I
Heal h, Educa ion, and Wel a e
1.95
2.02
1.65
2.02
2.12
J
Labo and Demog aphic Economics
3.57
3.94
4.01
4.26
3.97
K
Law and Economics
0.44
0.53
0.59
0.63
0.60
L
Indus ial O ganiza ion
2.75
2.37
2.65
2.46
2.33
M
Business Adminis a ion and
Business Economics, Ma ke ing, and
Accoun ing
1.75 1.68 2.14 2.14 1.89
N
Economic His o y
3.64
2.88
3.00
3.22
2.96
O
Economic De elopmen ,
Technological Change, and G ow h
3.54
3.48
3.10
3.44
3.33
P
Economic Sys ems
2.48
2.36
2.19
2.14
1.98
Q
Ag icul u al and Na u al Resou ce
Economics, En i onmen al and
Ecological Economics
1.77
1.75
1.71
1.49
1.37
R
U ban, Ru al, Regional, Real Es a e,
and T anspo a ion Economics
1.02 0.92 0.76 0.83 0.87
Z
O he Special Topics
0.14
0.18
0.15
0.17
0.18
Table 5: JEL Ca ego ies F equency o Use, Decade A e ages
* Num
be s a e: (A e age % To al Wo d Coun ) x 100
www.economics-ejou nal.o g 16
lay li e a u e o ailing o o esee and p edic he 2007 ecession and associa ed
inancial c ises; he ac ha esea ch a en ion in he ield o Mac oeconomics had
app eciably declined in he yea s be o e hese c ises may be no ewo hy.23
I is possible o specula e on easons o he decline in Mac oeconomics (E)
esea ch. One hypo hesis could be ha Mac oeconomic esea ch hasn’ declined
a all, i has jus mig a ed om he gene al in e es jou nals o he ield jou nals.
Kelly and B ues le (2011) in es iga e his exac possibili y bu ind no e idence
o i ; hei esul s show ha publica ion o Mac oeconomics esea ch has declined
in he op gene al in e es jou nals, as well as ac oss all jou nals, including
special y ield jou nals. Ano he hypo hesis in ol es a supply-side explana ion o
he decline in Mac oeconomics (E) esea ch, namely, ha he numbe o new PhDs
in economics and hose ha specialize in Mac oeconomics has been on a decline.
A e iew o he op economics depa men s a U.S. uni e si ies, as well as a
employmen in esea ch depa men s a he U.S. Fede al Rese e, shows ha
unemploymen has no app eciably d opped and so his oo is unlikely o be he
explana ion. A hi d possibili y is he ise o esea ch in o he mic o ounda ions o
Mac oeconomics, a possibili y which he me hodology o ex analysis can
uniquely explo e and which is in es iga ed below.
O he published a icles con aining mac oeconomics con en , a check on he
simul aneous le el o mic oeconomics con en e eals ha while mac oeconomics
esea ch o e all has been on he decline, mac oeconomics pape s wi h
“mic o ounda ion” con en (as measu ed by JEL ca ego y D keywo d analysis)
appea s o be on he ise. Figu e 6 illus a es his, and sugges s ha , pe haps, one
possible eason o he ela i e decline in Mac oeconomics (E) esea ch is a shi
in ocus o Mic oeconomic con en .24
The me hodology o ex analysis also allows an in es iga ion in o speci ic
ends in Mac oeconomics esea ch, in o de o gain insigh in o possible declines
in speci ic a eas o hough . Figu e 7 p esen s he composi e equencies o
_________________________
23 No e ha Financial Economics (G) also shows a s a is ically signi ican decline in esea ch
a en ion ac oss h ee o he ou decades ( om he 1960s o he 1970s, he 1970s o he 1980s, and
he 1990s o 2000s).
24 Addi ionally, he single keywo d “mic o ounda ions” has been on a consis en and inexo able ise
in he da ase , appea ing i e imes as equen ly in he las decade o he co pus, as in he i s
decade.
www.economics-ejou nal.o g 17
ca ego ies o keywo ds associa ed wi h he ollowing pa adigms: Keynesianism,
Mone a ism, Ra ional Expec a ions, Real Business Cycle (RBC) Models, and Neo-
Keynesianism. All o hese pa adigms o hough ha e expe ienced a peak and
hen a decline o e he yea s, con i ming he his o ical ends in popula i y o hese
0
0,01
0,02
0,03
0,04
0,05
0,06
0,07
0,08
0,09
0,1
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
0
0,0001
0,0002
0,0003
0,0004
0,0005
0,0006
0,0007
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Figu e 6
: The Mic o ounda ions o Mac oeconomics Resea ch, O e Time
% To al Wo d Coun
Yea
Mic oeconomics (D)
Mac oeconomics (E)
Figu e 7: T ends in Mac oeconomics Resea ch, O e Time
% To al Wo d Coun
Yea
Ra ional Expec a ions
Neo-Keynesian
Keynesian
Mone a ism
RBC
www.economics-ejou nal.o g 18
a eas o hough . Tha hey ha e all expe ienced such a pa e n sugges s ha he
decline in Mac oeconomics esea ch is b oad-based, and no elega ed o any one
speci ic a ea. Indeed, as has been sugges ed by a numbe o Mac oeconomics
colleagues, an addi ional hypo hesis o he gene al decline in Mac oeconomics
esea ch may be due o he lack o any new, uni ying heo y ha would ga ne
a en ion and exci emen and spa k new lines o esea ch. Mac oeconomics
esea che s may be i ing o old heo e ical igh s, and mo ing on o ela i ely less
con en ious mic oeconomics-based esea ch.
6 Jou nals
Nex we in es iga e esea ch oci ac oss he speci ic jou nals o e ime. Figu e 8
shows g aphs o each jou nal o all he 19 opic ca ego ies, bu wi h
Mac oeconomics (E) again bolded o easy disce nibili y.25 This igu e shows
ha he gene al decline in Mac oeconomics published esea ch is common ac oss
all he jou nals unde s udy, and isn’ he esul o one o wo speci ic jou nals
g ea ly changing ocus. Fo wha e e eason, Mac oeconomics has been losing
publishing space o o he ields ac oss he op academic gene al in e es jou nals.
Figu e 9 explo es he mic o ounda ions o mac oeconomics esea ch, his ime
by jou nal. An in e es ing dis inc ion eme ges. The o e all end we ound ea lie
(Figu e 6) holds as well o all i e o he e e eed jou nals unde s udy, bu i
doesn’ o JEP and JEL. The hea ily edi o in luenced, o en non- e e eed
a icles published in JEP and JEL do no show he same end in his a ea, as he
o he jou nals do.
Mo ing on om Mac oeconomics, he e a e oo many ca ego ies (19) o epea
a igu e simila o Figu e 8 o each o he dis inc ca ego ies, so ins ead we
highligh jus a ew o he in e es ing ends. Figu e 10, o example, is a g aph o
each jou nal, his ime o Ma hema ical Me hods (C) alone so i s end can be
easily disce ned. The g aphs illus a e an inc easing le el o ma hema iza ion o
economics o e he decades, o he majo i y o he jou nals unde s udy. AER,
o examples, sees a 56% inc ease in ma hema ical keywo d and key ph ase use
_________________________
25 Fo Figu es 7–11, he e ical axis con inues o be “% To al Wo d Coun .”
www.economics-ejou nal.o g 19
Figu e 8: JEL Ca ego ies F equency o Use, pe Jou nal, pe Yea
Mac oeconomics (E) Highligh ed
www.economics-ejou nal.o g 20
Figu e 9: The Mic o ounda ions o Mac oeconomics Resea ch,
pe Jou nal, pe Yea
www.economics-ejou nal.o g 21
Figu e 10: JEL Ca ego ies F equency o Use, pe Jou nal, pe Yea
Ma hema ical Me hods (C) Highligh ed
www.economics-ejou nal.o g 22
om 1960 o 2010, JEL sees a 66% inc ease, JEP a 53% inc ease, JPE a 49%
inc ease, QJE an 82% inc ease, and RES a whopping 200% inc ease. Only he
jou nal Econome ica shows any decline in ma hema iza ion o e he ime pe iod
unde s udy, and likely his is because i had a high le el o ma hema iza ion o
begin wi h, ela i e o he o he jou nals. Comp ehensi ely, signi icance es s o e
he decades show an inc ease in ma hema iza ion a he 1% le el om he 1970s o
he 1980s, and om he 1980s o he 1990s ( he e was also an inc ease om he
1960s o he 1970s, bu i was no s a is ically signi ican ). Whe he his inc ease
in ma hema iza ion is a good o bad de elopmen is le o ano he deba e, bu he
published esea ch eco d does appea o con i m he end.
Taking ad an age o he unique me hodology u ilized in his pape , Figu e 11
illus a es some o he speci ic keywo ds in JEL ca ego y C ha had he mos gain
(and loss) o e he ime span s udied. F om hese esul s i appea s ha
ma hema ical me hods as applied o game heo y led he gain in JEL ca ego y C’s
inc easing esea ch a en ion, while inpu -ou pu models, IO, and linea
p og amming applica ions expe ienced signi ican declines.
Figu e 12 illus a es wha has been happening in Mic oeconomics (D), he
mos p e alen esea ch ca ego y in he se o esea ch a icles o e all. The g aphs
con i m a end ha is common o mos o he o he nine een ca ego ies, ha i s
sha e o esea ch in he op gene al in e es jou nals has, o he mos pa , been
cons an ; no jus in o al, bu ac oss he dis inc jou nals as well. This begs he
ques ion as o why he speci ic ca ego ies o esea ch a e being gi en he consis en
le els o a en ion ha hey a e – is i a di ec esul o he ypes o esea ch a icles
ini ially submi ed o e iew and publica ion? O , is i a esul o edi o as es,
as es which seem o be consis en ac oss he decades as well as ac oss he
jou nals? Whe e is his di ision o esea ch a en ion coming om, and why?
www.economics-ejou nal.o g 23
Figu e 11: Ma hema ical Me hods (C),
Change in Speci ic Keywo ds
www.economics-ejou nal.o g 24
Figu e 12: JEL Ca ego ies F equency o Use, pe Jou nal, pe Yea
Mic oeconomics (D) Highligh ed
www.economics-ejou nal.o g 31
Figu e 17: JEL Ca ego ies F equency o Use, pe Au ho ship Le el, pe Yea
Mac oeconomics (E), Ma hema ical Me hods (C), and Mic oeconomics (D) Highligh ed
www.economics-ejou nal.o g 32
A ew conclusions can be d awn. Fi s , ha Mic oeconomics domina es he
esea ch a en ion in he economics p o ession, and by a signi ican ma gin. The
nex mos esea ched ield is Labo Economics, and a e ha Mac oeconomics.
The es o he 19 ields s udied ecei e less a en ion han hese h ee.
A second conclusion is ha , while Mac oeconomics may be one o he op
h ee mos esea ched ields in economics om 1960–2010, i s sha e o esea ch
a en ion has been s eadily declining. The heigh o Mac oeconomics esea ch in
he op gene al in e es jou nals in academia was in he la e 1960s, ea ly 1970s;
since hen, he amoun o published esea ch a en ion de o ed o he subjec o
Mac oeconomics has been on a s eady decline, ac oss all he jou nals s udied, and
ac oss di e en Mac oeconomic subjec a eas. A e he ecen 2007 ecession and
economic mel down, he economics p o ession ecei ed a lo o c i icism o no
in es iga ing some o he mac oeconomic ends ha we now know led o he
c ises; his may be a esul o a declining lack o in e es in he ield by
esea che s.
A he same ime, he le el o esea ch a en ion paid o Ma hema ical Me hods
in academic esea ch has inc eased. I has long been whispe ed ha he economics
p o ession has become inc easingly “ma hema ized” since he 1960s; he ex
analysis p esen ed he e p o ides empi ical e idence o his end.
All o he o he esea ch ca ego ies s udied in his pape ha e main ained
ela i ely s able le els o esea ch a en ion o e he yea s. This holds ue no jus
ac oss ime, bu ac oss he indi idual jou nals s udied, ac oss an in es iga ion in o
sho e and longe monog aph ypes, and ac oss solo e sus co-au ho ship le els.
I begs he ques ion as o why? Why has he e been such a s eady di ision o
esea ch a en ion ac oss he speci ic ields, o e ime and ac oss jou nals? A
wo hwhile u u e esea ch agenda would be o in es iga e no jus he le els o
esea ch a en ion in pa icula jou nals, bu he op imali y o such di isions. Why
do we s udy wha we s udy, and should ha change?
Acknowledgemen s: G a e ul acknowledgemen is gi en o pa icula ly insigh ul
assis ance om Ha ald Uhlig, Dan Hame mesh, Da id Laband, Adai Mo se, Allen Bellas,
Ian Lange, Ga h Heu el, John Whi ehead, and a ious semina pa icipan s a egional
economic mee ings and he Uni e si y o Missou i-S . Louis.
www.economics-ejou nal.o g 33
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Appendix
P ocedu al and Me hodological De ail
U ilizing bag-o -wo d subjec dic iona ies o disce n hema ic con en is a well
accep ed p ac ice in compu a ional ex analysis (Weiss e al., 2005), howe e , he
de ails in pe o ming i in any gi en applica ion a e no necessa ily
s aigh o wa d. Tex ual analysis, while i o e s unique bene i s in e ms o
olume, objec i i y, and speed is no , as La e e al. (2003) succinc ly pu i , “a
me hodological ee lunch.”
In his con ex , decisions had o be made abou how o sco e he hema ic
dic iona ies o a i e a he composi e equencies o use. Say a dic iona y o
ca ego y X is composed o en wo ds (𝒙𝟏,𝒙𝟐,…,𝒙𝟏𝟏), i a co po a con ains one
ins ance o all en wo ds, is i gi en a sco e o 10? Wha abou i i con ains jus
one o he wo ds, bu en imes, does ha ga ne a 10 a ing as well?
The e is no accep ed s anda d he e, and how one sco es he hema ic dic iona y
is gene ally up o he esea che . In his pape , since we a e no ying o
exclusi ely ca ego ize each esea ch pape in o a single ca ego y (i.e. pape s can
ha e bo h mac oeconomic and mic oeconomic con en ; indeed, many au ho s
hemsel es equen ly assign hei pape s mul iple JEL ca ego ies ac oss subjec s),
we chose a simplis ic sco ing me hod ha is equi able ac oss he bag-o -wo ds.
All wo ds coun ed equally (i.e. we did no ge in o a subjec i e weigh ing o some
keywo ds being mo e “mac oeconomic” han o he s), and mul iple uses o a wo d
coun ed each ime o he same ex en . In o he wo ds, a cu o he co po a in ou
s udy (be i by jou nal, yea , au ho ship le el, e c.) is sco ed by simple coun s o
all he wo ds in each o he 19 dic iona ies. This means ha mos indi idual
pape s had coun s in mo e han one subjec dic iona y. As mos au ho s assign
hei own pape s ac oss JEL subjec ca ego ies, we ound his o be app op ia e
and accep able in his esea ch con ex . In o he con ex s, one may wish o
uniquely ca ego ize each pape o a single subjec ca ego y, bu in he s udy
pe o med in his pape , we ound ha o be unnecessa y, and indeed e en
coun e in ui i e.
We would also like o make men ion he e o he p og ams and p ocedu es used
o c ea e he ela ional da ase o jou nal a icles and associa ed cha ac e is ics. All
o he jou nal a icles we e manually downloaded om JSTOR. A sc ip could no
www.economics-ejou nal.o g 38
be w i en o do his because o he Aa on Swa z con o e sy; JSTORs websi e is
sophis ica ed enough now ha i au oma ically in e up s any sc ip om
downloading oo many a icles om i s si e a one ime. An i obo sc ip , howe e ,
was w i en o sc ape om he web all he cha ac e is ics o each o he pape s,
including i le, yea , au ho names, page numbe s, e c. The ex analysis
equencies we e compu ed h ough he lexible Wo dS a so wa e which, while
pe o ming he basic equency calcula ions, allows o da a expo o pe l and
py hon o inal da a manipula ion and o ganiza ion.
Please no e:
You a e mos since ely encou aged o pa icipa e in he open assessmen o his a icle. You
can do so by ei he ecommending he a icle o by pos ing you commen s.
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h p://dx.doi.o g/10.5018/economics-ejou nal.ja.2015-13
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