Ribei o, Ana Ca olina Bo ges Ma ques; Tai, Sil io H. T.
A icle
Mig an ne wo ks, egional de elopmen and in e nal
mig a ion lows in B azil
EconomiA
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
The B azilian Associa ion o Pos g adua e P og ams in Economics (ANPEC), Rio de Janei o
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Ribei o, Ana Ca olina Bo ges Ma ques; Tai, Sil io H. T. (2023) : Mig an ne wo ks,
egional de elopmen and in e nal mig a ion lows in B azil, EconomiA, ISSN 2358-2820, Eme ald,
Bingley, Vol. 24, Iss. 2, pp. 189-204,
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Mig an ne wo ks, egional
de elopmen and in e nal
mig a ion lows in B azil
Ana Ca olina Bo ges Ma ques Ribei o and Sil io Hong Tiing Tai
Pon i ical Ca holic Uni e si y o Rio G ande do Sul, Po o Aleg e, B azil
Abs ac
Pu pose –This s udy analyzes he ole o mig an ne wo ks in he mig a ion lows in ela ion o he
educa ional le el o he mig an s and economic g ow h o he s a es o o igin and des ina ion in B azil.
Design/me hodology/app oach –Fixed e ec s es ima o applied o mic oda a.
Findings –The esul s show mig an ne wo ks ha e a signi ican and posi i e impac on mig a ion lows o
he di e en educa ional le els. The economic g ow h in he des ina ion s a e accen ua es his e ec , while he
economic g ow h in he o igin s a e has dis inc impac s acco ding o he educa ional le el o he new mig an .
O iginali y/ alue –The au ho s in es iga e he impo ance o mig an ne wo ks in he in e nal immig a ion
wi hin a de eloping coun y wi h la ge in e nal mo emen o people. In B azil, he socio-economic condi ion o
he popula ion a ies conside ably in ela ion o i s geog aphy, which explains he coun y’s la ge in e nal
mig a ion lows.
Keywo ds Economic g ow h, B azil, Educa ion le el, Mig an lows, Mig an ne wo ks
Pape ype Resea ch pape
The B azilian economy, in his espec , p o ides an in e es ing example o a coun y ha o e s he
bes o bo h wo lds o a s udy o mig a ion. Thus, on he one hand, he e a e no isa p oblems o
acial ba ie s among he s a es. On he o he hand, he coun y is so as and he economic
dispa i ies a e so wide ha , compa ed wi h he in e nal mig a ion in his subcon inen , he
in e na ional mig a ion among, o example, he coun ies o Eu ope migh look like a local
phenomenon (Saho a, 1968, p. 219).
1. In oduc ion
Ex e nali ies o igina ing om mig an ne wo ks may be associa ed wi h pa e ns o la e
mig a ion lows, because hey a e a o m o social capi al ha indi iduals can make use o
e en be o e mig a ion. Massey e al. (1993) shows ha mig an ne wo ks can educe
mig a ion cos s and acili a e access o jobs and in o ma ion a he place o ecep ion o new
wa es o newcome s. This subjec has been in ensely s udied in he in e na ional li e a u e on
mig a ion (Munshi, 2003;Beine e al., 2011,2015;Beine & Salomone, 2013;Comola & Mendola,
2015;Beine, 2016;Goel & Lang, 2019;Galbis, Wol , & He aul , 2020;Dagnelie, Mayda, &
Mays ad , 2019), es ablishing a ela ionship be ween he exis ing ne wo k o mig an s and
mig a o y lows.
This a icle p oposes an ex ension o his analysis o in es iga e he impo ance o he
socioeconomic con ex in which his ela ionship akes place. Gi en he es ablished li e a u e in
which many au ho s use exis ing mig a o y ne wo ks o p edic mig a o y lows, his a icle
Regional
de elopmen
and in e nal
mig a ion
189
© Ana Ca olina Bo ges Ma ques Ribei o and Sil io Hong Tiing Tai. Published in EconomiA. Published
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Recei ed 7 June 2022
Re ised 9 Ma ch 2023
Accep ed 4 June 2023
EconomiA
Vol. 24 No. 2, 2023
pp. 189-204
Eme ald Publishing Limi ed
e-ISSN: 2358-2820
p-ISSN: 1517-7580
DOI 10.1108/ECON-06-2022-0052
p oposes as a con ibu ion o in es iga e mo e abou how he e ec i eness o his p edic o can
a y depending on he con ex . He e ogeneous aspec s o his ela ionship may a ise om
ac o s such as he mig an ’s educa ional le el, he economic g ow h in hei place o o igin, and
he economic g ow h in hei des ina ion. To he bes o ou knowledge, he wo la e
he e ogeneous ela ionships ha e no p e iously been empi ically s udied in he li e a u e.
Th ee examples can illus a e he impo ance o hese ac o s and show how he
ela ionship be ween exis ing mig an ne wo ks and mig a o y lows can change acco ding
o he socioeconomic con ex . Fi s ly, unskilled mig an s ha e ewe esou ces o mig a e and
may be mo e penalized, o ins ance, by poo anspo s uc u e, linked o less dynamic
economies. In his case, hese unskilled mig an s may ind anspo solu ions om he
exis ing mig an ne wo k o o e come anspo di icul ies. Secondly, mo e skilled mig an s
may be inancially be e able o seek le els o well-being ha a e no necessa ily ela ed o
highe incomes ound in mo e dynamic economies. These skilled mig an s can bene i om
compa a i e in o ma ion om he mig an ne wo k when a bi a ing be ween economic
dynamism and ameni ies associa ed wi h he places o o igin and des ina ion o mig a ion.
Thi dly, he mig an ne wo k can p o ide in o ma ion and help wi h he sea ch o wo k and
job placemen o new mig an s (whe he hey a e unskilled o skilled), especially in mo e
economically dynamic loca ions whe e hese ela ionships may be mo e complex.
This pape empi ically e i ies he co ela ion o he in e s a e mig an ne wo k wi h he
in e s a e mig an lows in B azil be ween 2000 and 2010, acco ding o he mig an ’s
educa ional le el and he economic g ow h o he places o o igin and des ina ion. We
in es iga e he impo ance o mig an ne wo ks in he in e nal immig a ion wi hin a
de eloping coun y wi h la ge in e nal mo emen o people. In B azil, he socio-economic
condi ion o he popula ion a ies conside ably in ela ion o i s geog aphy, which explains
he coun y’s la ge in e nal mig a ion lows [1]. Some s a es in he No heas Region, such as
Ma anh~
ao and Piau
ıha e pe capi a GDPs compa able o ha o India, while B as
ılia has a
pe capi a GDP compa able o de eloped coun ies such as Ge many. Indeed, he e is a
his o ical and in ense immig a ion om he no heas o he sou heas egion and o B as
ılia
(Aguayo-Tellez, Muendle , & Poole, 2010, p. 840). Ano he ad an age o s udying in e nal
mig a ion in a single coun y is he possibili y o elimina ing some heo e ical mechanisms
speci ic o in e na ional immig a ion, such as hose ega ding mig a ion policies and isa
equi emen s, emaining only he mechanisms ela ed o mig a ion and ins alla ion cos s.
We ind signi ican and posi i e associa ion be ween he mig an ne wo k and he low o
mig an s. Mo e impo an ly, we analyze he he e ogeneous associa ion o mig an ne wo ks
wi h mig a ion lows acco ding o he educa ional le el o he new mig an and he economic
g ow h o he s a es o o igin and des ina ion. On he one hand, he associa ion o he exis ing
mig an ne wo k and mig a ion lows is signi ican ly ( om a s a is ical poin o iew) highe
in des ina ion places wi h highe g ow h, ega dless o he le el o educa ion o immig an s.
On he o he hand, his associa ion is ambiguous in he places o o igin wi h he highes
g ow h, i dec eases o he en i e sample and o low-skilled immig an s and i inc eases o
highly-skilled immig an s.
The pape is o ganized in o i e sec ions. Sec ion 2 e iews he ela ed li e a u e, Sec ion 3
p esen s he heo e ical model ha suppo s his s udy. Sec ion 4 desc ibes he empi ical
analysis o he es ima ion. Sec ion 5 shows he esul s o he empi ical es ima es, and inally
Sec ion 6 includes he s udy conclusions.
2. Li e a u e e iew
The size o he mig a ion low be ween wo loca ions may be less s ongly co ela ed wi h
wage di e ences o employmen a es, as he e ec s o hese a iables on p omo ing o
inhibi ing mig a ion may be p og essi ely o e shadowed by he educed cos s and isks
esul ing om he expansion o mig an ne wo ks.
ECON
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Mose (1998) shows social capi al can be conside ed an asse ha diminishes indi idual
ulne abili y, making i pa icula ly ele an o he poo es indi iduals. Indeed, he li e a u e
shows he bene i s ne wo ks o compa io s p o ide, especially he inancial bene i s, may be
mo e impo an o less p i ileged indi iduals. Fo such indi iduals, mig a ion cos s ep esen
a highe p opo ion o hei income (Chiquia & Hanson, 2005;Tai & Ribei o, 2016). This ac is
pa icula ly ele an in de eloping coun ies, such as B azil, in which la ge p opo ions o he
popula ion ha e low-incomes, wi h di icul ies ela ed o he po e y o hei place o o igin.
Some indi iduals while unable o pu sue a be e li e ab oad, a e able o mig a e o he
ela i ely ich cen e s wi hin he coun y, such as B as
ılia, S~
ao Paulo and Rio de Janei o. F om
a concep ual poin o iew, mig an ne wo ks a e hough o ha e a key ole in de e mining
domes ic immig a ion in de eloping coun ies, p ima ily in he immig a ion o he poo es .
A s udy by Beine e al. (2011) looked a he e ec s o diaspo as [2] and ound ha hey
inc ease in e na ional mig a ion lows and dec ease he educa ional le el o hese lows. The
e ec o mig an ne wo ks seems o be mo e ele an o he less skilled, because as he
ne wo ks expand, he cos s and isks o mig a ion dec ease. Beine and Salomone (2013)
analyzed he e ec s o ne wo ks on in e na ional mig a ion in ela ion o educa ion and
gende . The esul s show he impac s a y due o di e ences in educa ion, ha is, such
ne wo ks ha e he e ogeneous e ec s ega ding high-skilled and low-skilled mig an s, as he
li e a u e sugges s, ne wo ks we e ound o a o he mig a ion o he less quali ied.
Howe e , ega ding gende he impac o ne wo ks was s a is ically iden ical be ween men
and women o he same le el o quali ica ion.
Thus, he ole o mig an ne wo ks would seem o di e acco ding o he quali ica ion
le el and income o he mig an . This pape ex ends he analysis and s udies he ole o he
le el economic g ow h o he places o o igin and des ina ion o immig a ion in his
ela ionship. Some concep ual a gumen s suppo he exis ence o he e ogeneous e ec s.
Fi s ly, unde de eloped places may ha e poo anspo a ion in as uc u e wi h no di ec
access o o mal ain, bus o ai anspo se ices. The Wo ld Heal h O ganiza ion
(WHO, 2018) shows ha B azil epo ed 19 oad a ic dea hs pe 100,000 inhabi an s in 2016,
makingi he 14 h wo s esul on a lis o 175 coun ies. The his o y o he P esiden Luiz In
acio
Lula da Sil a’s mig a ion om Pe nambuco o S~
ao Paulo on an open-back uck [3] o lack o
any o he economically accessible means o anspo illus a es his si ua ion. Rioja (2003)
shows he e ec i eness o public in as uc u e in La in Ame ica co esponds o 74% o ha o
public in as uc u e in indus ialized coun ies. As in he case o he p esiden Lula, his
p eca iousness pa icula ly a ec s he leas skilled indi iduals who canno a o d o su moun
he inadequa e anspo in as uc u e. In his case, he expe ience accumula ed by he mig an
ne wo k can p o ide in o ma ion and help ega ding al e na i e o ms o anspo . By con as ,
be e quali ied indi iduals, al hough also penalized, a e be e able o o e come he p oblem by
using hei own esou ces o anspo a ion, such as hei own ca . Acco ding o his a gumen ,
he associa ion o he exis en mig an ne wo k wi h mig a o y lows o unskilled indi iduals
would be expec ed o diminish wi h he economic dynamism, pa icula ly o he place o o igin.
This is because mig an s in gene al may a oid des ina ions ha lack a minimally adequa e
anspo in as uc u e, and ne wo k pe o mance is no obse ed in hese cases.
Secondly, he mos quali ied indi iduals can de i e speci ic bene i s om he mig an
ne wo k when depa ing om mo e de eloped loca ions. The li e a u e shows ha young
skilled indi iduals seek employmen oppo uni ies in places wi h a business en i onmen ,
while e i ed quali ied indi iduals a e a ac ed by quali y o li e a he han business
en i onmen (Gab iel & Rosen hal, 2004;Chen & Rosen hal, 2008). While he quali y o he
business en i onmen may be indica ed by he economic dynamism o he des ina ion, he
quali y o li e a o ded by he ameni ies a ailable in smalle o coas al ci ies lacks any such
objec i e indica o s. Compa a i e in o ma ion on he quali y o li e in he des ina ion, which
may compensa e o a be e economic condi ion in he o igin may be p o ided by he aci
Regional
de elopmen
and in e nal
mig a ion
191
knowledge held by he mig an ne wo k. A ellow coun yman ha is awa e o he ameni ies
a ailable in he des ina ion can p o ide a compa a i e assessmen ha suppo s he decision
o mig a e. Acco ding o his a gumen , he associa ion o he mig an ne wo k wi h
mig a o y lows o skilled indi iduals would be expec ed o inc ease wi h he economic
dynamism o he places o o igin.
Thi dly, mo e economically dynamic a ge des ina ions may also ha e highe ins alla ion
and adap a ion cos s. These may be incu ed in a passi e manne , o example due o o mal
landlo d and enan ela ionships ha equi e he exis ence o a gua an o as a p e equisi e
o en ing accommoda ion. In his case, a ne wo k o ellow coun ymen may p o ide
in o ma ion abou he eal es a e ma ke and/o a gua an o . Such des ina ions may also ha e
mo e complex, o mal wo king ela ionships in ol ing la ge companies, which also p o ides
scope o ins alled mig an ne wo ks o p o ide help. Ba ie s o mig a ion in mo e de eloped
loca ions may be mo e p oac i e in na u e. Fele and Hende son (2011) show ha “Locali ies
in de eloped coun ies o en enac egula ions o de e low-income households om mo ing
in”, he au ho s s udy how he B azilian dic a o ship p e en ed he in e nal mig a ion o
unskilled indi iduals by wi hholding wa e supplies o small houses whe e low-income
mig an s a e likely o li e. Acco ding o hese a gumen s, he associa ion o he ne wo k wi h
he mig an low gene ally inc eases wi h he economic condi ion o he place o des ina ion
and is accen ua ed o new, less quali ied mig an s.
3. Theo e ical ounda ion
The main heo e ical models ega ding he mig a ion decision we e de eloped by Bo jas
(1987) and Chiquia and Hanson (2005). The wo k o Beine e al. (2011) added o ea lie
mig a ion decision models by including he e ec s o ne wo ks on he likelihood o mig a ing.
Beine and Salomone (2013) added he gende dimension o he model. As he aim o his pape
is o analyze he ole o ne wo ks on he size and composi ion o mig a ion lows in B azil
be ween 2001 and 2010, he heo e ical model o his s udy is based on he model p oposed by
Beine e al. (2011).
A wo ke wi h uni s o human capi al h, ecei es a wage wiha his place o o igin i, while wi
is he p ice o skills a ha place i. To acili a e he desc ip ion o he model, he ime index
has been omi ed om he equa ions. Indi idual u ili y is linea in income, bu also depends
on he cha ac e is ics o he place o o igin, such as public expendi u e, clima e, and
ameni ies, which a e deno ed by Ai.
The u ili y o he ype h indi idual, bo n a loca ion i emaining a place iis gi en by ( o
he sake o cla i y, we ha e omi ed he index o he ime dimension):
uiiðhÞ¼wihþAiþ
ε
i(1)
The u ili y ob ained when he same indi idual mig a es o loca ion jis gi en by:
uijðhÞ¼wjhþAjCij þ
ε
j(2)
Whe e Cij cap u es he mig a ion cos s o be abso bed by he indi idual mig an , hese cos s
depend on ac o s such as he geog aphical dis ance be ween loca ions i(o igin) and j
(des ina ion), deno ed by dij, he social and cul u al cha ac e is ics o he des ina ion and
o igin loca ions ðxi;xjÞ, as well as he le el o human capi al o he indi idual hand he
ne wo k o mig an s (s ock) om he loca ion i esiding in j, deno ed by Mij, o he economic
g ow h o he places o o igin and des ina ion ðyi;yjÞand he in e ac ion be ween Mij and
hese le els o de elopmen ðMij 3yi;Mij 3yjÞ:Thus mig a ion cos s can be desc ibed as:
CijðhÞ¼cdij;xi;xj;yi;yj;Mij;Mij 3yi;Mij 3yj;h(3)
ECON
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192

This pape analyzes he associa ion o he mig an ne wo k (Mij) wi h mig a ion lows wi h
di e en educa ional le els, as well as he associa ion o mig a ion lows wi h he in e ac ions
o he mig an ne wo k wi h he economic g ow h o places o o igin (Mij 3yi) and des ina ion
(Mij 3yj). Ne wo ks a e assumed o educe anspo , in o ma ion and assimila ion cos s.
Thus, we expec he mig an ne wo k has a posi i e associa ion wi h mig a ion lows.
The associa ion o mig a ion lows wi h he in e ac ion o he mig an ne wo k wi h he
economic g ow h o he place o o igin (Mij 3yi) may a y acco ding o he educa ional le el
o he mig an s. On he one hand, a nega i e coe icien is expec ed o he in e ac ion be ween
mig a ion ne wo k and economic g ow h in he place o o igin o low-skilled mig an s. Such
mig an s a e he mos penalized by he lack o anspo in as uc u e ypical o poo ly-
de eloped egions and can hus gain g ea e bene i s om he knowledge o anspo
al e na i es accumula ed by he mig an ne wo k. On he o he hand, a posi i e coe icien is
expec ed o he in e ac ion be ween he mig an ne wo k and economic g ow h in he place
o o igin o highly-skilled mig an s. Such mig an s can use he compa a i e knowledge
ob ained om he mig an ne wo k o a bi a e a mig a ion decision by compa ing he
economic condi ion in he place o o igin and ameni ies a he p oposed des ina ion.
The coe icien o in e ac ion o he mig an ne wo k wi h he economic g ow h o he
des ina ion (Mij 3yj) is expec ed o be posi i e o all educa ional le els in he mig a ion
lows. In his case, he ne wo k would be expec ed o p o ide assis ance wi h job- ela ed
ac i i ies, which a e mo e complex in mo e dynamic des ina ions.
The size o he na i e popula ion o mig a ion age in place iis deno ed by Nii. A e
analyzing he se o a iables ha in luence mig a ion lows, we can w i e equa ion (4):
lnNijðhÞ
NiiðhÞ¼ðwjwiÞhþðAjAiÞcdij;xi;xj;yi;yj;Mij;Mij 3yi;Mij 3yj;h(4)
The model p esen ed in equa ion (4) allows us o analyze he main ea u es o mig a ion lows,
especially how mig an ne wo ks in luence he size o such lows.
4. Ma e ials and me hods
This sec ion desc ibes he a iables associa ed wi h he in e s a e mig a ion lows in B azil
om 2001 o 2010, hei size and hei educa ional composi ion by educa ional le els in
di e en Fede al Uni s (FUs) o o igin and des ina ion. In line wi h he heo e ical model, he
impac o mig an ne wo ks among o he ac o s associa ed wi h ecen mig a ion lows we e
e alua ed.
4.1 Da a
The es ima es a e based on mic oda a om he 2010 Census mic oda a, p oduced by he
B azilian Ins i u e o Geog aphy and S a is ics (IBGE) ha ha e been agg ega ed by
ede a i e uni o o igin and des ina ion. To calcula e he mig an ne wo ks, we conside ed
he s ock o indi iduals bo n in FU i, esiding in FU j, a ime -1. To calcula e he mig a ion
lows, we conside ed he s ock o indi iduals p e iously li ing in FU iand who mig a ed o
FU j, in yea . The yea o mig a ion was calcula ed conside ing he epo ed leng h o ime
in he FU o esidence in 2010. The sample consis s o 7020 obse a ions, which desc ibe
lows and ne wo ks o 702 pai s ij om 2001 o 2010.
Fou le els o educa ion we e conside ed: incomple e p ima y school, comple e p ima y
school, comple e seconda y school and e ia y educa ion. Low-skilled indi iduals we e
de ined as hose who had comple ed p ima y school and high-skilled indi iduals hose who
had comple ed seconda y school o e ia y educa ion.
Table 1 shows he s ock o mig an s om 2000 o 2009 by FU o bi h.
Regional
de elopmen
and in e nal
mig a ion
193
O he en FUs wi h he highes s ock/ esiden popula ion a io, eigh a e om he No heas .
The FU wi h he la ges s ock o emig an s in ela ion o i s popula ion is Pa a
ıba, ollowed by
Piau
ıand Alagoas.
Table 2 shows he anking o he 15 la ges pai ed ij lows. The cumula i e lows om
2001 o 2010 a e gene ally composed o low-skilled mig an s. In addi ion, mos o he ij pai s
wi h he la ges lows a e, in gene al, also hose wi h he la ges mig a ion ne wo ks. Fo
example, Bahians li ing in S~
ao Paulo ha e he second la ges ne wo k o indi iduals esiding
in a di e en s a e om whe e hey we e bo n, and he BA-SP pai has he la ges low o ij
pai s om 2001 o 2010, mo eo e 73% o his olume is composed o low-skilled mig an s.
The ij pai wi h he lowes a io o low o low-skilled is Ac e-Rio G ande do Sul, ollowed
by Ro aima-Pa a
ıba, wi h less han 2% o he low being low-skilled. These pai s a e also
placed 640 h and 575 h, espec i ely, in he olume o mig an ne wo ks [4].
4.2 Va iables associa ed wi h mig a ion lows
In he heo e ical model desc ibed in equa ion (4), he main a iables associa ed wi h
mig a ion lows a e he wage di e en ial (speci ic o each skill le el), he ea u es o he places
o o igin and des ina ion o ameni ies, and he mig a ion cos s.
In he empi ical analysis, he speci ic ac o s o he ij pai s ha in luence mig a ion cos s
a e cap u ed by he geode ic dis ance be ween he FUs o o igin and des ina ion. The lagged
[5] pe capi a GDPs o he o igin and des ina ion FUs we e used o cap u e he economic
g ow h (as o igin and des ina ion ixed e ec s a e applied, he coe icien s o he pe capi a
Fede al uni Numbe o mig an s S ock/popula ion
Pa a
ıba 984,881 0.261
Piau
ı733,833 0.236
Alagoas 588,959 0.189
Pe nambuco 1,603,596 0.182
Pa an
a 1,841,041 0.176
Bahia 2,387,659 0.170
Ma anh~
ao 1,089,190 0.166
Minas Ge ais 3,093,606 0.158
Cea 
a 1,234,696 0.146
Se gipe 294,005 0.142
Tocan ins 163,556 0.118
Esp
ı i o San o 413,669 0.118
Rio G ande do No e 372,250 0.118
Ma o G osso do Sul 227,582 0.093
Goi
as 526,410 0.088
Rio G ande do Sul 889,918 0.083
San a Ca a ina 514,535 0.082
Ac e 50,108 0.068
Dis i o Fede al 157,836 0.061
Pa 
a 425,381 0.056
Ma o G osso 168,538 0.056
Rio de Janei o 634,663 0.040
S~
ao Paulo 1,583,686 0.038
Amazonas 118,570 0.034
Rond^
onia 50,080 0.032
Amap
a 18,655 0.028
Ro aima 11,830 0.026
Sou ce(s): 2010 Census, able c ea ed by au ho s
Table 1.
S ock o mig an s by
FU o bi h
ECON
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GDPs cap u e only hei wi hin a ia ion, i.e. economic g ow h) o he ede a i e uni s, which
may also e lec he e ec o he wage di e en ial on mig a ion [6].
The ixed e ec s o he o igin FU ha cap u e he combined e ec o all unobse ed ime-
cons an ea u es o he o igin FU iwe e included. The same ixed e ec s also cap u e all he
mig a ion- ela ed impedimen s o acili a ions speci ic o he o igin FU (xi)inequa ion (1).
Simila ly, he ixed e ec s o he des ina ion FU ha cap u e he combined e ec o
unobse ed ime-cons an ea u es o he des ina ion FU, as well as he mig a ion- ela ed
impedimen s o acili a ions o he des ina ion FU we e also included.
The inclusion o hese ixed e ec s o o igin and des ina ion also cap u es he e ec s o
he ameni ies (Aiand Aj). Time ixed e ec s om 2001 o 2010 we e also included, as we e
clus e e ec s in he FU ij pai s due o he possibili y ha he andom e o s o he ij pai s
could be co ela ed.
Finally, he mig an ne wo k (i.e. he s ock o indi iduals bo n in FU i esiding in FU ja
ime -1) a e deno ed by he a iable (Mij).
The in oduc ion o hese a iables p o ides a speci ica ion o he mig a ion low, now
explaining he index o he ime dimension:
ln½Nij ðhÞ ¼
α
0þ
α
1lnMijð −1Þþ
α
2lnðdijÞþ
α
3lnPIBpcið −1Þ
þ
α
4lnPIBpcjð −1Þþγiþγjþγ þ
ε
ij (5)
Whe e Nij ðhÞis he low o mig an s obse ed in yea bo n in FU i esiding in FU j, wi h he
educa ional le el h,Mijð −1Þis he size o he mig an ne wo k in he ij pai in -1. Fixed e ec s
o FU i,FUjand a e cap u ed by γi,γjand γ , espec i ely.
The main es imable equa ion including in e ac ions o he exis en mig an ne wo k wi h
lagged pe capi a GDP is shown in equa ion (6):
ln½Nij ðhÞ ¼ β0þβ1lnMijð −1Þþβ2lnMijð −1Þ3yiþβ3lnMijð −1Þ3yjþβ4lnðdijÞ
þβ5lnPIBpcið −1Þþβ6lnPIBpcjð −1Þþγiþγjþγ þ
ε
ij (6)
ij pai Accumula ed low Low-skilled low Low-skilled % Mig an ne wo k Ne wo k anking
BA-SP 238,867 174,411 0.73 1,365,687 2
MG-SP 202,070 115,773 0.57 1,407,474 1
SP-MG 170,921 98,430 0.58 263,560 14
PE-SP 113,573 86,393 0.76 831,640 4
SP-BA 108,442 72,939 0.67 97,255 50
SP-PR 129,059 69,342 0.54 424,331 6
PR-SC 116,894 69,080 0.59 270,218 12
PR-SP 115,993 65,425 0.56 879,776 3
MA-PA 78,679 62,087 0.79 339,027 8
CE-SP 69,450 50,091 0.72 401,854 7
DF-GO 84,490 49,613 0.59 71,771 66
RS-SC 100,971 47,080 0.47 331,613 9
PI-SP 54,212 42,088 0.78 206,565 20
AL-SP 50,682 40,784 0.80 294,823 10
SP-PE 52,886 36,530 0.69 43,018 99
Sou ce(s): 2010 Census, able c ea ed by au ho s
Table 2.
Ranking o he 15
la ges accumula ed
mig a ion lows and
ne wo ks
Regional
de elopmen
and in e nal
mig a ion
195
4.3 Econome ic issues
The es ima ion o mig a ion lows, eq. (5) in ol es econome ic issues ha may cause
inconsis ency i es ima ed using o dina y leas squa es (OLS) alone.
The i s p oblem is ela ed o he occu ence o ze o alues o he dependen a iable,
“mig a ion low”. The second p oblem is he po en ial co ela ion be ween mig an ne wo ks,
deno ed by ln Mij wi h he andom e o , deno ed by
ε
ij . The p esence o unobse able
componen s ha a ec bo h he size o he mig an ne wo k and he cha ac e is ics o new
mig an s can lead o endogenei y p oblems in he es ima ions. Fo example, in San a Ca a ina
disc imina ion agains indi iduals bo n in he neighbo ing s a e o Rio G ande do Sul migh
inhibi hem om emig a ing he e.
4.3.1 Ze o alue o he dependen a iable. Among he mig a ion lows analyzed, he low
o indi iduals wi h comple e p ima y schooling cons i u es he la ges numbe o nonexis en
obse a ions (equal o ze o), ep esen ing 30% o he sample in his g oup, ollowed by he
mig a ion lows o indi iduals wi h e ia y educa ion, o which he e a e 1,929 low
obse a ions equal o ze o, ep esen ing 27% o he sample in his g oup. In he o he lows,
17% o he obse a ions a e equal o ze o. The e a e no obse a ions whose mig an ne wo k
is ze o.
These occu ences o ze o alues in he es ima ion o equa ion (5) using OLS could lead o
inconsis en es ima es. Using he na u al loga i hm speci ica ion educes he ze o
obse a ions in he sample, which would likely esul in biased es ima es o he
associa ion o ne wo ks and o he a iables on mig a ion lows.
Excluding hese obse a ions could unde es ima e he impac o a iables ha a ec
mig a ion cos s, such as dis ance o he mig an ne wo k.
Two echniques a e a ailable o add ess his p oblem. The i s is o use he Poisson
eg ession, which is based on pseudo-maximum likelihood es ima es. This p ocedu e is
common in he ade li e a u e [7], Poisson es ima es a e iable o analyzing he impac o he
ne wo ks on he lows. The o he way in ol es using echniques ha ake in o accoun a
po en ial selec ion bias ia wo-s age Heckman es ima ion. In gene al, when analyzing
mig a ion lows i is i s necessa y o es ima e a selec ion equa ion - o es ima e he
p obabili y ha a gi en ij pai will ha e a posi i e mig a ion low. The usual p ocedu e
implies he use o an ins umen in he p obi equa ion, ha is, a bila e al a iable ha
in luences he p obabili y o obse ing a mig an low be ween he wo FUs, bu does no
in luence he olume o he low. Finding such an ins umen is ha d wo k, Woold idge (2008)
epo s ha an ins umen o his p ocedu e is no absolu ely necessa y. We chose o
pe o m wo-s age Heckman eg essions wi hou any ins umen , simila ly o Beine
e al. (2011).
4.3.2 Unobse able a iables co ela ed wi h ne wo ks. Ano he impo an econome ic
issue is he possibili y ha unobse able bila e al componen s may a ec he size o he
mig an ne wo ks (Mij) and he dependen a iables (mig a ion lows by educa ional le el).
Fo example, socioeconomic and cul u al pa e ns be ween an FU iand an FU jmay
simul aneously a ec he mig an ne wo k (s ock) and ecen mig a ion lows as well as he
selec ion o hese lows. These e ec s will be included in he e o e m, which in u n leads o
some kind o omi ed a iable bias and some co ela ion be ween Mij and i s in e ac ions wi h
he e o e m,
ε
ij .
To mi iga e his p oblem, i is necessa y o use an ins umen , a a iable co ela ed wi h
he size o he mig an ne wo k, bu unco ela ed wi h he mig a ion lows om 2001 o 2010.
Fo his pu pose, he a iable “mig an s ock pa ij om 1974 o 1980”, ex ac ed om he
1980 census, was used. To cons uc he s ock, indi iduals younge han 45 yea s old in 1980
we e excluded om he sample, hus a oiding hei inclusion in he mig a ion lows om
2001 o 2010. As he s a e o Tocan ins had no ye been c ea ed in he 1980s, he lows
ECON
24,2
196
8. This numbe is ob ained by 0.0906 50.1*0.07*ln(416195) 416195 is he a e age o ne wo ks om
Table 2
9. This numbe is ob ained by 0.194 50.1*0.15*ln(416195) 416195 is he a e age o ne wo ks om
Table 2
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Appendix
The Appendix ile o his a icle can be ound online.
Abou he au ho s
Ana Ca olina Bo ges Ma ques Ribei o holds a bachelo ’s deg ee in economics (2010),
mas e ’s deg ee in De elopmen Economics (2013) and Ph.D. in De elopmen
Economics om he Pon i ical Ca holic Uni e si y o Rio G ande do Sul (2017). She
has expe ience in economics, wi h emphasis on ma hema ical, econome ic and
s a is ical me hods and models, wo king mainly on he ollowing opics: B azil,
mig a ion, mig an ne wo ks, wage p emium, labo ma ke and en ep eneu ship.
Sil io Hong Tiing Tai holds a deg ee in ci il enginee ing om he Poly echnic School
o he Uni e si y o S~
ao Paulo and he Ins i u Na ional des Sciences Appliqu
eees in
Rennes, F ance (2000); mas e ’s deg ee and Ph.D. in In e na ional Economics om he
Uni e si y Pa is 1 Pan h
eon-So bonne wi h an Ei el Excellence Schola ship (2009)
and pos doc o al deg ee in Economics a he Uni e si y o Gene a unded by Ma ie
Cu ie Resea ch T aining Ne wo ks o he Eu opean Commission (2010) and
pos doc o al deg ee a Sophia Uni e si y (Tokyo, Japan) unded by PRINT om
CAPES (2019). He was Assis an P o esso a he Pa is-Sud XI Uni e si y om 2010 o
2019 and P o esso a he Pon i ical Ca holic Uni e si y o Rio G ande do Sul om 2011 o 2022. He has
been P o esso a he S a e Uni e si y o San a Ca a ina since 2023. Sil io Hong Tiing Tai is he
co esponding au ho and can be con ac ed a : [email p o ec ed]
Fo ins uc ions on how o o de ep in s o his a icle, please isi ou websi e:
www.eme aldg ouppublishing.com/licensing/ ep in s.h m
O con ac us o u he de ails: [email p o ec ed]
ECON
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