K eyen eld, Michaela
A icle
Changes in he Timing o Fi s Bi h in Eas Ge many a e
Re-uni ica ion
Schmolle s Jah buch – Zei sch i ü Wi scha s- und Sozialwissenscha en. Jou nal o Applied
Social Science S udies
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Duncke & Humblo , Be lin
Sugges ed Ci a ion: K eyen eld, Michaela (2000) : Changes in he Timing o Fi s Bi h in
Eas Ge many a e Re-uni ica ion, Schmolle s Jah buch – Zei sch i ü Wi scha s- und
Sozialwissenscha en. Jou nal o Applied Social Science S udies, ISSN 1865-5742, Duncke &
Humblo , Be lin, Vol. 120, Iss. 2, pp. 169-186,
h ps://doi.o g/10.3790/schm.120.2.169
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Schmolle s Jah buch 120 (2000), 169-186
Duncke & Humblo , Be lin
Changes in he Timing o Fi s Bi h in Eas Ge many
a e Re-uni ica ion
By Michaela K eyen eld*
Abs ac
When Ge man e-uni ica ion was accompanied by a apid decline in agg ega e e -
ili y a es, esea che s pa icula ly assigned high unemploymen a es a dominan
ole in hese changes in e ili y beha io . The aim o his pape is wo old. Fi s , we
in es iga e changes in he iming o i s bi hs in Eas Ge many a e e-uni ica ion.
Using da a om he SOEP, we show ha e en a e e-uni ica ion Eas Ge mans a e
younge a i s bi h han hei Wes Ge man coun e pa s. Second, we in es iga e
he ela ionship be ween male and emale unemploymen and i s bi h isks. A ma-
jo esul is ha emale unemploymen encou ages he ansi ion in o pa en hood in
Eas Ge many
Zusammen assung
Die Ve einigung de beiden deu schen S aa en im Jah 1990 wu de on einem bis-
lang beispiellosen Gebu en ückgang in Os deu schland beglei e . Als E klä ung ü
diese d as ischen Ve ände ungen im gene a i en Ve hal en wu de o au die os -
deu sche A bei sma k lage e wiesen. Ziel dieses Bei ags is es, zunächs Ve ände-
ungen im Al e de Familieng ündung in Os deu schland zu besch eiben. Au Basis
on Da en des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) wi d gezeig , dass auch nach de
Wende os deu sche F auen bei de Gebu des e s en Kindes jünge sind als wes -
deu sche F auen. Da übe hinaus wi d de Zusammenhang zwischen A bei slosigkei
und Familieng ündung in Os deu schland analysie . Wesen liches E gebnis de Ana-
lyse is , dass die E we bslosigkei on F auen einen posi i en Ein luss au den Übe -
gang zum e s en Kind ha .
JEL-Classi ica ion: J13, J 22
* The au ho would like o hank F ancesco Billa i, Ka l B ehme , Tomas F ejka,
Jan Hoem, Johannes Huinink, Hans-Pe e Kohle and wo anonymous e iewe s o
hei aluable commen s. The iew exp essed in his pape is my own. I does no ne-
cessa ily e lec he iew o he Max Planck Ins i u e o Demog aphic Resea ch.
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170 Michaela K eyen eld
1. In oduc ion
The all o he Be lin Wall on No embe 9 h, 1989 is usually equa ed wi h
he b eakdown o he GDR egime. Mone a y union wi h Wes Ge many ol-
lowed in July and Ge man e-uni ica ion in Oc obe 1990. As can be seen
om Figu e 1, agg ega e e ili y a es in Eas Ge many declined almos im-
media ely a e Ge man e-uni ica ion. While he e we e s ill 180,000 bi hs
in 1990, he e we e only 110,000 a yea la e . This is a d op by abou 40 pe -
cen o e he pe iod o a single yea . The To al Fe ili y Ra e (TFR), which is
a mo e accu a e accoun o he popula ion a isk o childbi h, displays a
simila pa e n. The TFR in Eas Ge many d opped om 1.5 in 1990 o 1.0
in 1991, and eached i s lowes le el o 0.8 in he yea s 1992 o 1995.
Panel 1: Li e Bi hs in Eas Ge many (in 1,000) Panel 2: TFR in Eas and Wes Ge many
Sou ce: S a is isches Bundesam (1999).
Figu e 1: Bi h Ra es in Eas and Wes Ge many
The decline in bi h a es has caused an ex ensi e discussion abou he
de e minan s o hese apid and d as ic changes. The hypo hesis ha is pe -
haps discussed mos is he idea o a "c isis phenomenon."1 Ebe s ad (1994:
150) iews he Eas Ge man e ili y decline as a "demog aphic shock". He
a gues ha e ili y a es in Eas Ge many " egis e a p o ound and b oadly
el lack o con idence in he economic u u e." In a simila ashion, Fleisch-
hacke (1994: 43) desc ibes e ili y decline a e e-uni ica ion as he esul
1 The e a e ce ainly o he aspec s, which a e also discussed in his con ex . The
mos o en ci ed easons o an ea ly i s bi h in o me Eas Ge many a e p esum-
ably Eas Ge man housing policies, he Eas Ge man 'ma iage loan', he public p o-
ision wi h day ca e, gene ous lea es o mo he s wi h sick child en e c. ( o a de-
ailed o e iew, see C omm 1998). Schaich (1998) ela es low Eas Ge man bi h a es
o an inc ease in consump ion oppo uni ies a e uni ica ion. O he au ho s obse e
a loss o a " amily o ien a ed li e s yle" and an eme gence o a "pos mode n" amily
s uc u e (see e.g., Beck-Ge nsheim 1997).
Schmolle s Jah buch 120 (2000) 2
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Changes in he Timing o Fi s Bi h 171
o a se e e economic c isis compa able o he pos -wa pe iods. Wi e and
Wagne (1995: 395) do no speak o a shock expe ience, bu hey s ill a gue
ha " he e is no eason o expec he o al e ili y a e in he Eas o e-
bound o he le el ound in he Wes ." Un a o able labo ma ke con-
s ain s, i.e. high unemploymen a es, a e expec ed o keep Eas Ge many's
e ili y a e below Wes Ge man le els.
Timing o Quan um?
One o he mos s iking ea u es o he discussion abou he "Eas Ge -
man e ili y c isis" is ha i concen a es la gely on inding an explana ion
o a " e ili y decline", gene ally using he annual TFR as an indica o .2 I
is well known among demog aphe s ha he (commonly used) TFR is highly
subjec o misin e p e a ion (Bongaa s /Feeney 1998). I no only ails o
di e en ia e be ween bi hs o di e en o de s bu , mos impo an ly, i ob-
scu es he di e ence be ween " empo" and "quan um e ec s" o e ili y. A
decline in he TFR migh indeed be ela ed o a decline in li e- ime e ili y,
bu i migh jus as well be ela ed o a pos ponemen o mo he hood.
Compa ed o o he Eu opean coun ies, he mean age a childbi h was
ela i ely low in Eas Ge many. In 1989, he mean age a childbi h was 24.7
( o i s bi hs: age 22.7, o second bi hs: 26.3) (Bundesins i u ü Be-
ölke ungswissenscha 1999). In Wes Ge many, he age a childbi h is
a he high in a c oss-na ional compa ison. In 1989, he mean age a child-
bi h in Wes Ge many was 28.3 o all pa i ies (S a is isches Bundesam
1999). The conside able di e ence in age a childbi h be ween Eas and
Wes Ge mans is a he c ucial o unde s anding an "Eas Ge man e ili y
decline". E en i Eas Ge mans did empo a ily s op ha ing a child du ing
he uphea als o Ge man e-uni ica ion, Eas Ge man women we e s ill
young enough o pos pone childbea ing o a la e phase in hei li es wi h-
ou eaching he social and biological limi s o e ili y (o Wes Ge man le-
els).
One o he mos in e es ing ques ions migh he e o e be whe he he de-
cline in he TFR indeed indica es "quan um e ec s" o i i is ela ed in-
s ead o a pos ponemen o childbi h in he indi idual li e cou se. A simple
2 I should be no ed ha he e a e se e al au ho s who a gue ha changes in he
iming o i s bi h migh be an impo an ac o in he d op in he TFR a e e-uni-
ica ion (e.g. Con ad/Lechne /We ne 1996: 339, Do b i z 1997: 239, Schul z/
Wagne /Wi e 1993: 13). Howe e , o ou knowledge, he e is li le empi ical esea ch
on changes in he iming o i s bi h a e e-uni ica ion. An excep ion is e.g. he
s udy by Sackmann (1999). His analysis is howe e es ic ed o a sample o Eas Ge -
mans om Ros ock and Leipzig who ha e a oca ional aining ce i ica e o a college
deg ee.
Schmolle s Jah buch 120 (2000) 2
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172 Michaela K eyen eld
me hod o de ec changes in he iming o pa en hood is he use o coho
e ili y a es. Howe e , Ge man i al s a is ics only p o ide bi hs by o -
de s in he cu en ma i al union. Wi h almos hal o all bi hs being ou o
wedlock in Eas Ge many, i al s a is ics a e o limi ed alue when analyz-
ing changes in he iming o childbi h in Eas Ge many a e e-uni ica ion
(S a is isches Bundesam 1999). The aim o his pape is wo old. Fi s , we
use su ey da a o desc ibe he iming o i s bi hs o di e en Eas Ge -
man bi h coho s be o e and a e e-uni ica ion. Second, we in es iga e
whe he he nega i e co ela ion be ween high unemploymen and low e -
ili y a es also holds ue on he mic o le el. In o he wo ds: Does unem-
ploymen induce a pos ponemen o i s bi h in Eas Ge many?
This pape is s uc u ed in he ollowing manne . In he i s pa , we dis-
cuss some gene al ea u es o he Eas Ge man labo ma ke be o e and
a e e-uni ica ion. In he second pa , we discuss he gene al amewo k
ha ela es emale and male unemploymen and child iming decisions. The
hi d pa comp ises he empi ical analysis. This pa consis s o wo sec-
ions. In he i s sec ion, we simply desc ibe he iming o i s bi h o di -
e en Eas Ge man bi h coho s be o e and a e Ge man e-uni ica ion
(using simple Kaplan-Meie su i al cu es). The second sec ion comp ises
he mul i a ia e analysis, whe e we analyze he impac o male and emale
unemploymen on i s bi h isks in Eas Ge man a e Ge man e-uni ica-
ion (using an e en his o y model).
2. The Eas Ge man Labo Ma ke
I is o en belie ed ha he e is no eal dicho omy be ween a " ee ma ke
sys em" on he one hand and a cen ally planned economy on he o he
(Szydlik 1994: 200). Go e nmen in e en ion is p e alen in any socie y.
Con e sely, he e is also oom o ee choice in a cen ally planned econo-
my. Ne e heless, i is indispu able ha in a cen ally planned economy like
he o me Eas Ge many go e nmen in e en ion was a he encompass-
ing. The p oduc ion o goods and se ices was la gely go e ned by 'plan'.
Fi ms we e mos ly publicly owned, wages and p ices we e cen ally se . La-
bo ma ke mobili y was se e ely es ic ed, i.e. upwa d mobili y was e y
much cons ained by p ede e mined ca ee pa hs, in e nal labo ma ke e-
s ic ed job mobili y and he s a u o y igh o wo k insu ed agains unem-
ploymen (Solga / Konie zka 1999, G iine /Ka l 1997, Sackmann / Wingens
1996).
Wi h Ge man e-uni ica ion, he se -up o he Eas Ge man labo ma ke
d as ically changed. In he subsequen yea s, Eas Ge mans wi nessed a
ho ough " es uc u ing" o he labo ma ke , i.e. closu es o i ms and wi h
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Changes in he Timing o Fi s Bi h 173
i dismissals o wo ke s on a la ge scale. This means ha Eas Ge mans no
only los he p edic abili y o hei ca ee pa hs ha hey we e used o in
he o me Eas Ge many. They we e also a g ea e isk o expe iencing un-
employmen , change o jobs o uns able employmen condi ions han hei
Wes Ge man coun e pa s. Empi ical analysis e eals ha almos hal o
all Eas Ge mans males expe ienced some ime o unemploymen o some
ime o job c ea ion p og ams in he immedia e pe iod a e e-uni ica ion
(Bielinski /B inkmann / Kohle 1995). Panel 1 in Figu e 2 displays male un-
employmen a es o he pe iod 1991 o 1999 in Eas and Wes Ge many. In
1991, unemploymen a es we e on a s ill mode a e le el in Eas Ge many.
Howe e , wi h he cu back o job c ea ion p og ams, unemploymen a es
inc eased well abo e Wes Ge man le els in he subsequen yea s.
Panel 1: Male Unemploymen Ra es Panel 2: Female Unemploymen Ra es
Sou ce: Bundesans al ü A bei (2000).
Figu e 2: Unemploymen Ra es 1991-1999
Conce ning emale employmen , he e is consis en empi ical e idence
ha he es uc u ing o he Eas Ge man labo ma ke has pa icula ly
"dis up ed" he wo king ca ee s o women. Eas Ge man women we e a a
highe isk o unemploymen and hey had lowe chances o e u ning o he
labo ma ke a e being unemployed han hei male coun e pa s (e.g.,
Diewald/Maye /Solga 1999, Engelb ech /Reinbe g 1997, Hois /Schupp
1995). Simila o hei male coun e pa s, women wi hou o mal quali ica-
ions we e he ones mos likely o become unemployed. In 1995, abou hal
o all Eas Ge man women wi hou any o mal quali ica ions we e unem-
ployed, while on he o he hand he e was only li le unemploymen (abou
5 pe cen ) among Eas Ge man women wi h a college deg ee. Engelb ech
and Reinbe g (1997: 11) e en speak o a pola iza ion among Eas Ge man
women, wi h highly quali ied employed women on he one hand, and non-
wo king women wi hou su icien o mal quali ica ions on he o he .
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174 Michaela K eyen eld
3. Theo e ical Conside a ions
F om he pe spec i e o neoclassical heo y, he e a e a leas wo ac o s
connec ing e ili y and employmen . Fi s , child en a e expec ed o cos a
subs an ial amoun o money, which is gene ally acqui ed h ough pa ici-
pa ing in he labo ma ke (Tu chi 1975). Second, ea ing child en is a
ime-in ensi e ac i i y, which he e o e compe es wi h ime one could
o he wise spend in gain ul employmen (Becke 1993, Hi schman 1994). I
one assumes he adi ional di ision o labo in he household (i.e., he
man is esponsible o p o iding o he amily and he woman o child-
ea ing) his yields wo s aigh o wa d hypo heses on he ela ionship be-
ween unemploymen and e ili y. On he one hand, male unemploymen
should ha e a pos poning e ec on childbi h. In imes o unemploymen
he male "b ead-winne " is ha dly able o suppo a amily and he couple
should he e o e pos pone pa en hood un il he husband has e u ned o
gain ul employmen . Female unemploymen , on he o he hand, should en-
cou age couples o ha e child en. Female unemploymen educes he ime
cos s o ha ing child en, which makes i easonable o a woman o gi e
bi h when she expe iences unemploymen (Bu z/Wa d 1979, Zimme -
man/DeNew 1990).
Ca ee Planning and Fe ili y
One migh a gue ha he s anda d neoclassic amewo k is a he myopic
in ha i does ake in o conside a ion he ac ha he decision o ha e a
child in ol es a longe ime pe spec i e. Du ing imes o unemploymen , he
oppo uni y cos s o ha ing child en a e low. Howe e , childbi h usually
equi es a longe ime o absence om he labo ma ke han a woman
would ha e o he wise spen unemployed. Mos impo an ly, e ili y deci-
sions and childbi h a e sepa a ed by nine mon hs. Fu he mo e, a mo he
is no able o e u n o he labo ma ke immedia ely a e gi ing bi h o a
child. In Ge many, mo he s a e p ohibi ed om wo king du ing he i s
eigh weeks a e childbi h. In addi ion, when he child is s ill e y young
pa en s migh be less willing o pu hei child en in day ca e. The longe a
woman is no in ol ed in he labo ma ke a e childbi h, howe e , he
g ea e he chances o expe iencing a de alua ion o he human capi al and
he lowe he chances o a smoo h e u n o he labo ma ke . In o he
wo ds, i a woman decides o ha e a child while being unemployed, she will
mos likely be absen om he labo ma ke subs an ially longe han he
pe iod o unemploymen would no mally ha e las ed. I is mos likely ha
she will expe ience a de alua ion o he human capi al, which will educe
he chances o esuming employmen .
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Changes in he Timing o Fi s Bi h 175
I , on he o he hand, a woman decides o ha e a child while she is in eg-
ula employmen , she has a a be e chance o e u ning o he labo ma -
ke a e childbi h. In Ge many, a woman who is employed be o e he bi h
o he child is en i led o ake ad an age o ma e ni y lea e egula ions,
which en ail he gua an eed igh o e u n o he job up o h ee yea s a e
he bi h o a child. Gi en his ins i u ional se ing, one would expec wo-
men o i s sea ch o a s able employmen si ua ion, which hen acili a es
a smoo h e u n o hei p e ious employmen a e childbi h. F om his
pe spec i e, emale unemploymen should ha e a pos poning e ec on a
i s bi h (see e.g., Adle 1997).
Labo Ma ke Discou agemen and Fe ili y
The line o easoning ske ched abo e assumes ha unemploymen has a
pos poning e ec on childbi h due o a woman's ca ee -planning mo i es.
I implici ly assumes ha women ha e a desi e o b ing hei employmen
and e ili y "ca ee s" in o synch wi h each o he . F iedman, Hech e and
Kanazawa (1994: 382 .) challenge his line o easoning wi h a se o a he
p o oca i e hypo heses. They basically a gue ha , in con empo a y socie-
ies, women ace a choice be ween an employmen ca ee and a "ca ee " as
mo he and housewi e. Al hough women migh wish o pu sue an employ-
men ca ee , bleak employmen p ospec s migh discou age hem om
doing so. Women hen espond o hei un a o able employmen p ospec s
by choosing he secu e and p edic able ca ee o a mo he and housewi e in-
s ead. Simila o he s anda d neoclassic amewo k, emale unemploymen
has an accele a ing impac on childbi h in his amewo k. Howe e , he
choice o ha e a child is no a sho - e m decision in luenced solely by he
oppo uni y cos s o child- ea ing. Ra he , i is a long- e m decision which
encompasses he u u e employmen si ua ion.
Unemploymen and Fe ili y in Eas Ge many
To summa ize ou line o hough : he neoclassic amewo k pos ula es a
nega i e co ela ion be ween male unemploymen and e ili y and a posi-
i e one o emale unemploymen and e ili y. In he case o emale unem-
ploymen , we ha e cha ac e ized he s anda d neoclassic amewo k as
a he myopic, because i does no ake in o accoun he long- e m cos s o
op ing o pa en hood when a woman expe iences unemploymen . We ha e
a gued ha one would mo e likely expec a woman o i s sea ch o a
s able employmen si ua ion be o e she op s o pa en hood. This assu es
he he igh o e u n smoo hly o he job a e childbi h, hus gua an ee-
Schmolle s Jah buch 120 (2000) 2
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176 Michaela K eyen eld
ing a con inuous employmen ca ee . This a gumen akes o g an ed, how-
e e , ha Eas Ge man women seek an employmen ca ee . In p inciple, his
i s he Eas Ge man si ua ion e y well. Eas Ge man women a e o en de-
sc ibed as being mo e a ached o an employmen ca ee han hei Wes
Ge man coun e pa s (T appe 1995). When hey become unemployed, hey
a e mo e ac i e in seeking new employmen . I hey a e wo king pa - ime,
hey exp ess a g ea e desi e o wo k ull- ime (e.g. Hois /Schupp 1996).
This high le el o "labo ma ke a achmen " on he pa o mos Eas Ge -
man women is se e ely cons ained, howe e , by a he discou aging labo
ma ke cons ain s, e.g., high emale unemploymen a es, low chances o
en e ing he labo ma ke once unemployed, high isks o downwa d s a us
mobili y a e unemploymen . In line wi h F iedman, Hech e and Kanaza-
wa (1994), one migh in e p e a nega i e impac o emale unemploymen
on e ili y as a "labo ma ke discou agemen " o unemployed Eas Ge -
man women.
4. Empi ical Analysis
The empi ical analysis consis s o wo pa s. Fi s , we desc ibe he iming
o i s bi h in Eas Ge many be o e and a e e-uni ica ion, using simple
Kaplan-Meie su i al cu es. Second, we analyze he impac o male and
emale unemploymen on i s bi h isks a e Ge man e-uni ica ion, using
a piecewise cons an model (see e.g. Bloss eld/Rohwe 1995). We use da a
om he Ge man Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) o he yea 1998. The ana-
lysis is es ic ed o Eas and Wes Ge mans o he bi h coho s 1955 o
1980. To educe he he e ogenei y o he compa ison g oup, o eign na-
ionals a e excluded. Fu he mo e, indi iduals wi h missing in o ma ion on
he key a iable (i.e. he bi h biog aphy) a e also omi ed.3 Al oge he , he
sample comp ises 1,367 Eas Ge man women, who ga e bi h o 780 chil-
d en be o e censo ing (and 2,536 Wes Ge man women who ga e bi h o
1,086 child en).
Desc ip ion o Su i al Cu es
In Figu e 3 (Panel 1), he su i al cu e o he ansi ion o i s bi h o
he bi h coho s 1955-1960 is displayed. The da e o censo ing is he be-
3 Fo eade s who a e amilia wi h he s uc u e o he SOEP: We only use sample
A and C. Fu he mo e, we exclude all (o he ) o eigne s and e hnic Ge man mig an s
om he analysis. We only use women who ealized a leas one in e iew. Finally, we
omi all esponden s wi h missing bi h biog aphies (63 cases) and all esponden s
who epo ha hey ga e bi h be o e age 17 (8 cases).
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184 Michaela K eyen eld
Appendix
Table 1
Fi s Bi h Risks in Eas and Wes Ge many a e Re-uni ica ion (Model I)
Eas Ge mans Wes Ge mans
b exp(b) b exp(b)
Baseline (age)
15-20 -3.69 0.025 -4.34 0.013
20-24 -2.77 0.063 -2.95 0.052
24-28 -2.53 0.080 -2.50 0.082
28-38 -2.74 0.065 -2.42 0.089
Ac i i y S a us
In educa ion -0.93 0.40 -3.50*** -0.83 0.43 -4.31***
Pa - ime employmen -0.08 0.93 -0.19 0.27 1.31 0.98
Full- ime employmen 0 1 0 1
Unemploymen 0.49 1.63 2.03** 0.63 1.87 3.11***
No e: (1) Me hod: piece-wise cons an model (2) Popula ion: Eas and Wes Ge mans o he
coho s 1961-1980, who we e childless in he beginning o he yea 1991 (3) Cases we e le -
censo ed in he yea 1991 (4) Da e o bi h was backda ed by nine mon hs (5) Se e al lag a iables
we e added o he eg essions: o ac i i y s a us missing and o missing in o ma ion on he
mon h o bi h (6) ***: p < 0.01 **: 0.01 <p< 0.05 *: 0.05 < p < 0.10 (7) Sou ce: SOEP.
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