Gender role attitudes in Germany, 1982-2016: An age-period-cohort (APC) Analysis

Lois, Daniel Article Gender role attitudes in Germany, 1982-2016: An ageperiod-cohort (APC) Analysis Comparative Population Studies (CPoS) Provided in Cooperation with: Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung (BiB), Wiesbaden Suggested Citation: Lois, Daniel (2020) : Gender role attitudes in Germany, 1982-2016: An age-periodcohort (APC) Analysis, Comparative Population Studies (CPoS), ISSN 1869-8999, Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung (BiB), Wiesbaden, Vol. 45, pp. 35-64, https://doi.org/10.12765/CPoS-2020-02en This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/309208 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ Gender Role Attitudes in Germany, 1982-2016: An Age-Period-Cohort (APC) Analysis* Daniel Lois Abstract: The present study investigates the change of gender role attitudes in Germany between 1982 and 2016. Nine waves of the German General Social Survey are used (N = 26,389). In contrast to previous trend studies, which largely ignore age effects, a mechanism-based age-period-cohort model (Winship/Harding 2008) is applied. It becomes clear that age, period and cohort independently have an impact on gender role ideology. Compared to earlier research, new insights concerning the shape of cohort effects come to light: Specifi c to traditional gender ideology in Western Germany, it is apparent that the trend towards increasingly egalitarian attitudes comes to a halt in men born around 1956 and later and in women born 1966. For Eastern Germany we observe that the cohort-specifi c trend towards liberalisation in younger cohorts either is diminishing or even tends to reverse. This pattern of effects mainly mirrors the phases of the feminist movement in Western Germany and the rise and decline of the German Democratic Republic, respectively. Keywords: APC analysis · Identifi cation problem · Sexism · Gender role attitudes · German reunifi cation 1 Introduction Gender role attitudes can, generally speaking, be defi ned as an individual’s norms respective to gender-specifi c appropriate behaviour (Krampen 1979). If this specifi cally involves gender-based stereotypes that result in the inequality of men and women, this can be termed sexism (Swim et al. 1995). The traditional role preconception of ascribing the role of wife, mother and career aide for men to women is a typical form of sexism. Research into traditional gender role orientations is societally relevant, since it implies a devaluation of or disadvantage to women: Domestic and family-orientated tasks are, by and large, unpaid, are accorded less social recognition, frequently result in economic dependence and poverty in old age Comparative Population Studies Vol. 45 (2020): 35-64 (Date of release: 03.02.2020) Federal Institute for Population Research 2020 URL: www.comparativepopulationstudies.de DOI: 10.12765/CPoS-2020-02en URN: urn:nbn:de:bib-cpos-2020-02en9 • Daniel Lois 36 among women, and exacerbate their public invisibility and political powerlessness (cf. Mays 2012). Furthermore, gender role orientations are useful for explaining various demographically relevant attitudes and modes of behaviour and constitute a worthwhile subject of research for this reason as well. Thus, for instance, gender role orientations have an impact on the perceived fairness of the division of domestic work (Greenstein 1996), marital satisfaction (Amato/Booth 1995) or fertility behaviour (Kaufman 2000). While researching the long-term transformation of gender role orientations, in principle, three temporal dimensions merit consideration: cohort effects, age effects and period effects. (1) Cohort or socialisation effects cover differences between various generations. This centres on the assumption that individual characteristics such as gender role attitudes are acquired during childhood and youth. The formative phase of socialisation is typifi ed here by various contextual conditions (events, socioeconomic characteristics) and has a lasting infl uence on the further course of life (Ryder 1965). (2) Age or life cycle effects relate to changes within birth cohorts that are caused by the status of a person in the life cycle. Chronological ageing is accompanied by biological ageing (physiological changes in the body), social ageing (changes in social relations) and psychological ageing (changes in attitudes, values and dispositions). (3) Differences between various calendar times that equally concern all cohorts and age groups are designated period effects. They include infl uences caused by the historical context, such as a typical spirit of the age (“Zeitgeist”) or socio-structural changes that exert an impact on individuals (cf. Lois 2011). Previous studies addressing the development of gender-based attitudes in western industrialised countries (Germany, Luxembourg, USA) have for decades shown that these attitudes are increasingly becoming more egalitarian (Mason/Lu 1988; Braun/Alwin 1994; Braun et al. 1994; Brewster/Padavic 2000; Thornton/Young-DeMarco 2001; Brooks/Bolzendahl 2004; Lee et al. 2007; Valentova 2013; Baier 2014). This trend manifests itself, in the fi rst instance, as a cohort effect (cohort replacement): older cohorts and those with traditional attitudes are gradually replaced by younger cohorts with a more liberal orientation. Secondly, a period effect is evident (intra-cohort change): Irrespective of cohort affi liation, more egalitarian gender role orientations are found in more recent survey years. However, specifi c to the USA, Cotter, Hermsen and Vanneman (2011) observe in a more recent study that the longterm and consistent trend towards increasingly egalitarian gender roles seems to have decreased since the mid-1990s, or in post-baby-boom cohorts (born 1952 or later). According to one hypothesis, this supposed end of the “gender revolution” is a result of a changing popular culture in which aspects of feminist equality and traditional motherhood roles are combined. Several panel studies have shown that gender role ideology changes in the course of life – for instance during education or after the birth of the fi rst child (Bryant 2003; Crouter et al. 2007; Davis 2007; Katz-Wise et al. 2010; Vespa 2009). However, age effects are largely neglected by previous studies which are based Gender Role Attitudes in Germany, 1982-2016: An Age-Period-Cohort (APC) Analysis • 37 on repeated cross-sections. Thus, it cannot be ruled out, for example, that cohort effects reported so far are biased by age-specifi c variance which is not accurately addressed by the statistical model. This is the backdrop against which, in the following, a trend study on gender role orientations specifi c to Germany is conducted based on the newest available data of the German General Social Survey (GGSS). The application of a full-fl edged Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model which builds on the mechanism-based approach (Winship/Harding 2008) promises new insights on the actual shape of age, period and cohort effects. With regard to Cotter et al. (2011), special attention is paid to the question of whether the trend towards liberalisation has also decreased in the German context. The paper is structured as follows: Section 2 summarises the current state of research on the change of gender role attitudes in Germany. Section 3 examines the debate on the simultaneous existence of age, period, and cohort effects. Following methodological explanations in Section 4, the APC analyses are presented in Section 5 and fi nally discussed in Section 6. 2 The change of gender role attitudes in Germany: The current state of research Braun, Alwin and Scott (1994) compare Germany with the United States and assess items in terms of the impact of women’s employment on young children and in terms of a traditional gender ideology. Data are based upon the German General Social Survey (GGSS) and, for the USA, the General Social Survey (GSS). For Western Germany, from the early 1980s to the early 1990s, there was a signifi cant shift towards a more pronounced advocacy of egalitarian gender roles. This applies both to women and to men and, in particular, to gender ideology. This German trend towards increasingly egalitarian gender roles took hold earlier than in the United States, and began to diminish as early as the late 1980s. Lee, Alwin and Tufi s (2007) carry forward the analyses of Braun et al. (1994). They similarly base their study on GGSS data for the review period 1982-2004. Instead of comparing Western Germany and the USA, however, a comparison is drawn between the old federal states (the pre-reunifi cation Federal Republic of Germany FRG) and the new federal states (the former German Democratic Republic GDR). Descriptive analyses show that East German respondents are, at any given point in time, less traditional in their views than West German respondents. Furthermore, it is clear that in both the new federal states (1990-2004) and the old federal states (1982-2004), there is an uninterrupted trend towards increasingly egalitarian gender roles. Linear cohort and period effects are differentiated within the framework of a decomposition analysis (ignoring age). The results indicate that gender ideology in West German men and women has liberalised, especially during the fi rst phase (1982-1991). Using GGSS data from 2008, Wenzel (2010) concludes that East German respondents still evaluate mother’s paid employment more positively than West German respondents do. This difference holds even in multivariate models controlling for age, sex, education, employment status, and religious denomination. • Daniel Lois 38 Baier (2014) investigates the change of gender role attitudes in Germany from 1982-2008 using GGSS data. In descriptive terms, he confi rms the trend towards more liberal attitudes from a period-specifi c and a cohort-specifi c perspective. Additionally, he tries to estimate a full APC model and fi nds that age has no additional explanatory power when controlling for period and cohort. Viewed critically, the studies of Braun et al. (1994), Lee et al. (2007) and Wenzel (2010) have an underfi tting problem due to the cross-sectional design (Wenzel 2010) or the missing of the age effect (Braun et al. 1994, Lee et al. 2007), respectively. The main issue with the APC model estimated by Baier (2014) is that a conventional OLS model is used which potentially is affected by collinearity problems within the APC framework. That is, a simple OLS model is likely to overestimate or underestimate the true age, period and cohort effects in this context. 3 Changes in gender role attitudes in Germany: An APC approach In the following, various factors are outlined which might be the potential causes of specifi c age, period, and cohort effects. Besides important historical phases, especially the period of German partition, various “megatrends” – such as the expansion of education – are considered. An important historical factor underlying cohort-specifi c socialisation effects in Western Germany is the second wave of the New Women’s Movement. It emerged in the late 1960s from the student movement and spanned various phases. The fi rst phase was defi ned by campaigns against abortion law (Paragraph 218 of the German Criminal Code) in the fi rst half of the 1970s; the second phase was characterised by the establishment of encounter groups, and the third phase – from 1977 onwards – by the emergence of numerous feminist projects. The New Women’s Movement brought together women with differing ideological standpoints. First and foremost, the radically feminist school of thought is diametrically opposed to traditional gender role orientations and considers its primary task to be fi ghting patriarchy (Nave-Herz 1997: 75-77). In the historical context, the infl uences of the New Women’s Movement are considered to have set in from the West German 1946-1950 cohorts onwards. Furthermore, one could cautiously assume that the New Women’s Movement was at its height during the 1970s. It is apparent that two counter-movements emerged during the 1980s – simultaneously with US developments. Thus, in the fi rst instance, a new “feminine myth” gained popularity; emphasising the signifi cance of physical experiences such as motherhood, pregnancy, birth, and breastfeeding as the essence of womanhood. The second counter-movement can be termed “new motherliness” and promised women appreciation and personal fulfi lment derived from the maternal role (Nave-Herz 1997: 48-51). After reunifi cation in 1990, the situation was characterised by a drive for more heavily institutionalised women’s policy, such as the increase in university-driven research in the fi eld of women’s studies and the institutionalisation of equal opportunity legislation. Secondly, the women’s movement “individualised” itself to the Gender Role Attitudes in Germany, 1982-2016: An Age-Period-Cohort (APC) Analysis • 39 point that it was characterised less by representative organizations or prominent factions than by numerous women’s projects and a diverse and colourful “scene”. Whether this structural shift, consistent with fragmentation, is associated with a loss of relevance of the women’s movement is a controversial issue (Nave-Herz 1997: 73-74; Karl 2011: 240-251). In contrast to the old FRG, in the GDR – apart from the period immediately prior to the fall of the Berlin Wall – there was no independent grassroots women’s movement. Nevertheless, the ideological climate was shaped by the fact that women’s equality ranked among the primary objectives of state policy. Along with doing away with class antagonism, the development of socialist polity after the Second World War was also supposed to eliminate antagonism between the sexes. This was refl ected, for instance, in a relatively female-friendly GDR constitution, which stipulated equal rights in the family, wage equality for work of equal value, the right to equal education and a ban on discrimination against children born out of wedlock and their parents (Karl 2011: 203-204). The role model for the GDR’s labour market and family policies was the working mother, since women’s participation in the development of the socialist state was an economic necessity. Up to the beginning of the 1970s, the promotion of women’s employment, which was equated with women’s emancipation, was a priority. Specifi c initiatives ranged from one year’s paid maternity leave, the reduction of working hours for mothers, an increase in child benefi ts, to the expansion of crèches and kindergartens (Karl 2011: 207-208). In 1988, 83 percent of women in the GDR were engaged in paid employment. In the FRG, where the male breadwinner model was, for a long time, considered to be the ideal and was promoted by the state, only 55 percent of women were concomitantly in employment (Pritchard 2003). Despite women’s robust participation in the labour market in the GDR, one cannot speak of complete equality. Female employees were under-represented in positions of leadership and over-represented in low-wage industries. For reasons of compatibility, they often accepted jobs that were below their level of qualifi cation. In societal terms, a patriarchal family model continued to be upheld in the GDR; this apportioned women sole responsibility for the household and the family, thus frequently resulting in a dual burden (Karl 2011: 208-211). Nevertheless, it can be assumed that the birth cohorts that were socialised in a consolidated GDR state – primarily in the cohorts born between 1940 and 1960 – manifest more egalitarian gender role orientations than West German cohorts do. During the course of reunifi cation, the social position of East German women in particular suffered structural deterioration. In reunifi ed Germany, the employment of mothers was no longer fi nancially promoted on the same scale as in the GDR; the labour market situation worsened – particularly during the fi rst few years following reunifi cation – and childcare facilities became less readily available than they were prior to reunifi cation (Lee et al. 2007). However, qualitative and quantitative studies show that the high level of East German women’s orientation towards paid employment has continued over the fi rst decades following reunifi cation (Beck 2003; Arránz Becker et al. 2010). In the new federal states, the labour force participation rate between 1991 and 2000 initially dropped from 77.2 percent to 69.3 percent, • Daniel Lois 40 subsequently rising again to 75.8 percent in the years leading up to 2012. Clear differences between the East and the West are manifest, above all, in employment among mothers: In 2012, 55.7 percent of mothers with children aged below the age of 18 in their household are in full-time employment in the new federal states; in the old federal states, this fi gure stands at just 25.2 percent (Holst/Wieber 2014). The consistently robust vocational orientation and employment rates among East German women (particularly mothers) thus lead to the assumption that their relatively egalitarian gender role orientation continued after 1990, i.e. in the postreunifi cation post-1970 cohorts. Regarding period effects, various “megatrends” which can be attributed to Western industrialised nations have to be considered. General expansion in the realm of education, which commenced in the Federal Republic as far back as the 1950s and lost momentum only in the mid-1990s, is considered to have contributed to the liberalisation of gender role orientations. In relation to birth cohorts, effects of this expansion of education are to be expected from the year 1950 onwards (Becker 2006: 37-40). Closely linked to the expansion of education is women’s growing participation in the labour market. For instance, there is a rise in the employment rate among West German women from 54.6 percent (1991) to 67.5 percent (2012) (Holst/Wieber 2014). The correlation between women’s employment and egalitarian gender roles is a robust fi nding (e.g., Thornton et al. 1983; Tallichet/Willits 1986; Bolzendahl/Myers 2004; Brooks/Bolzendahl 2004). With respect to familial living arrangements, research shows that married people and those with children tend to hold more traditional gender role orientations compared to unmarried, divorced or childless individuals (e.g., Thornton et al. 1983; Tallichet/Willits 1986; Bolzendahl/Myers 2004; Vespa 2009). While in the new federal states the tendency to favour marriage is traditionally modest, since the 1980s, marriage has also become less important in the old federal states. This is borne out, for instance, by marriage later in life, the increasing proportion of nonmarital cohabitation, the increase in extra-marital births and the loss in importance of the institution of marriage at the attitudinal level (for an overview, see Peuckert 2012: 29-46). Regarding fertility behaviour, Bujard and Sulak (2016) show, from a cohort perspective, that the decline in the birth rate in Germany can be explained in terms of two phases: While a decline in higher order births was decisive for women in the years 1933-1947, an increase in childlessness was the key factor for those in the years 1948-1968. From a period perspective, what must also be pointed out here is the rapid drop in fertility in the new federal states during the period under review, particularly evident in the fi rst half of the 1990s (Kreyenfeld 2000). Finally, evidence pointing to the existence of age effects comes from (rather rare) panel studies which focus on intra-individual changes in the course of important biographical transitions. Regarding primary socialisation, Crouter et al. (2007) fi nd a u-shaped trend for the development of traditional gender role attitudes between ages 7 and 19. However, this general trend is moderated to a substantial degree by parent’s traditionalism as well as the gender and the age of siblings (see also Davis 2007). Bryant (2003) shows with respect to secondary socialisation in educational institutions, that traditional gender role attitudes generally decrease within the fi rst Gender Role Attitudes in Germany, 1982-2016: An Age-Period-Cohort (APC) Analysis • 41 four years in higher education. The amount of the decline depends on the area of study as well as on the social composition of the peer group. Katz-Wise, Priess and Hyde (2010) fi nd that gender role attitudes, especially those of women, become more traditional after the birth of the fi rst child (see also Vespa 2009). In general, based on the state of research and the theoretical arguments mentioned above, the conclusion seems to be justifi ed that a full-fl edged age-periodcohort model is neccesary to investigate the change of gender role attitudes in Germany. 4 Data and methods 4.1 Data and measures The analyses are based upon the German General Social Survey (GGSS, GESIS 2016). Since 1980, the GGSS has been collecting data on attitudes, behavioural patterns, and the social structure in Germany in the form of repeated cross-sectional surveys. Questions on gender role orientations have thus far been raised in nine waves: 1982 (Western Germany only), 1991, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016. The cumulative sample size is N = 26,389 persons. Until 1990, the target population of the GGSS consisted of all adult German nationals living in private households in the Federal Republic of Germany (including West Berlin). From 1991 onwards, the target population consists of all adult German nationals and adults of other nationalities living in private households in the Federal Republic (West and East). Foreign nationals are surveyed only if the interview can be conducted in German. In order to take into account the new defi nition of the target population, a dummy variable “foreign citizen” is considered in all models (1 = yes, 0 = no). Furthermore, depending on the survey design, those living in multiple-person households also have lower chances of being selected. Because familial living arrangement is used as a standard mediator (see below), all models implicitly control for this issue. Furthermore, it must be borne in mind that respondents from the new federal states are over-represented in the GGSS. Since there are, concurrently, major East-West differences in gender role orientation (Lee et al. 2007; Mays 2012), all the analyses below are conducted separately for Western Germany and for Eastern Germany.1 Finally, gender-specifi c differences are to be anticipated (Mays 2012). For this reason, all analyses within the area surveyed are conducted separately for men and for women. 1 A restriction of the data lies in the fact that for the East-West classifi cation, merely the current domicile is available, and not the place of birth and socialisation. Due to internal migration between East and West, a classifi cation based on the domicile is becoming increasingly problematic. • Daniel Lois 42 Gender role orientations in the GGSS are surveyed by means of six four-level items, originating from the American General Social Survey (GSS). Respondents are presented with three statements each on traditional gender ideology (henceforth termed TGI) and three statements on the evaluation of mother’s paid employment for young children (henceforth termed EMPLOY). The wording of the items can be found in Table 1.2 A new version of the questionnaire was introduced in the 2012 and 2016 waves, incorporating partially modifi ed item formulations, using the split-half method. For reasons of comparability, this analysis draws solely upon the original version. For this reason, only half the sample is available in 2012 and 2016. Using a confi rmatory factor analysis, Lee et al. (2007) show that the six items can indeed be subdivided into the two subdimensions TGI and EMPLOY. Thus, two scales corresponding to the arithmetic mean of the individual items are computed. Reliability in terms of Cronbach’s alpha ranges – depending on the wave – between .71 and .78 (TGI), and .56 and .72 (EMPLOY). In order to indirectly model age effects, familial living arrangements and employment status are used as mediators (see section 4.2) and measured as follows: • Familial living arrangements: Distinctions are drawn between (1) married persons with children (below 18 years of age, resident in the respondent’s household), (2) unmarried persons with children, (3) married persons without children and (4) unmarried persons without children (cf. Cotter et al. 2011). • Employment status: The employment status of the respondent and their partner or spouse is recorded according to four gradations: full-time employed, part-time employed, in education, and non-working (including small-scale employment and unemployment). 2 Reverse coded items are included in questionnaires to disrupt a response set where subjects respond favorably or unfavorably to all items. Tab. 1: Item wordings Traditional gender ideology Evaluation of mother’s paid employment (TGI) (EMPLOY) “It is much better for everyone if the man is the achiever outside the home and the woman takes care of the home and the family.“ “A working mother can establish just as warm and secure a relationship with her child as a mother who does not work.” (reverse coded)“ “For a woman it is more important to help her husband with his career than to get ahead herself.“ “A pre-school child is likely to suffer if his or her mother works and does not just take care of the home and family.” “A married woman should renounce working if there is only a limited number of jobs and if her husband is able to provide the living for the family.” “For a child it is better if his or her mother works and does not just take care of the home and family.” (reverse coded)” Source: GGSS (1982-2016) Gender Role Attitudes in Germany, 1982-2016: An Age-Period-Cohort (APC) Analysis • 49 5.1 Period effects In a fi rst step, we investigate period effects (Fig. 2 and 34) which are estimated while controlling indirectly for age and controlling directly for cohort.5 In Figure 2, the development of the traditional gender ideology (TGI) with passing calendar time is displayed. First, a typical result is confi rmed, in that men have more traditional attitudes than women. The development over time can be divided into three phases: The 1980s are, as documented by Braun et al. (1994), characterised by a rapid trend towards more liberal attitudes. The second phase (1991-2000), similarly to the development in the USA (Cotter et al. 2011), can be described as a sideways movement. Finally, in the third phase, the trends towards liberalisation speeds up again from 2000 onwards. The development in the New Federal States can be subdivided into two phases. Following a trend of liberalisation between 1991 and 2004, a sideways trend is observable between 2004 and 2016. A potential explanation for this sideways trend is Tab. 3: Empirical fi t of APC models West German East German Women Men Women Men Overall model fi t (TGI) X² 1007.9 928.5 788.2 865.0 Df 145 145 140 140 RMSEA 0.025 0.025 0.033 0.036 CFI 0.971 0.968 0.952 0.938 SRMR 0.009 0.009 0.012 0.012 N9445875042653929 Overall model fi t (EMPLOY) X² 1007.6 934.8 784.5 875.3 Df 145 145 140 140 RMSEA 0.025 0.025 0.033 0.037 CFI 0.969 0.966 0.951 0.935 SRMR 0.009 0.009 0.012 0.012 N9445875042653929 Source: GGSS (1982-2016, own calculations) 4 The plotted 95 percent confi dence intervals can be used for two-tailed hypothesis testing. For example, the gender role ideology of East German women in the year 2004 is signifi cantly more egalitarian compared to the year 2000 because the corresponding confi dence intervals do not overlap. 5 The level of the plotted lines in Figure 2 and 3 refers to a combination of the respective reference categories: German citizen, non-working, married with children, and cohort 1941-1945. • Daniel Lois 50 a “fl oor effect.” The mean of East German women is 1.67 in 2016, which is already quite low on a 4-point scale. Because of the sideways trend in East Germany, the difference between Eastern and Western Germany, which had increased since 1991, decreased between 2008 and 2016. Figure 3 shows how the negative evaluations of mothers’ paid employment have changed over time. Higher values on the EMPLOY scale indicate that the respondent fears more negative consequences for small children if the mother is working. Compared with traditional gender ideology, some differences come to light. Regarding gender, West German men are much more sceptical of mothers’ employment than West German women are. Furthermore, the difference between East and West is more pronounced because of a very positive evaluation of working mothers in East Germany. Furthermore, the Figure shows that the Western German trend towards more liberal attitudes, which had been stable for decades, came to a halt in recent waves between 2012 and 2016. When interpreting the displayed trends, an important detail of the analytical approach must be kept in mind. Because the age and period dimensions share mechanisms (see Table 2), the displayed period effects are net of employment status. The corresponding specifi c indirect effects (Bollen 1987) are shown in Tables A1 Fig. 2: Period effects on traditional gender ideology (estimates with 95 percent confi dence intervals) 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Year West German Men West German Women East German Men East German Women Traditional gender ideology (fitted values) Source: GGSS (1982-2016, own calculations) Gender Role Attitudes in Germany, 1982-2016: An Age-Period-Cohort (APC) Analysis • 51 and A26 in the Appendix. Accordingly, the negative period effects on TGI can be explained by two well-known mechanisms: the increasing extension of educational training phases and the increasing employment of women, especially in Western Germany. Using specifi c indirect effects, it can be computed to which extent the net effects displayed in Figures 2 and 3 are already explained (reduced) by controlling for employment status. The multivariate reduction is 11.7 percent for West German women and TGI. In all other groups and for the dimension EMPLOY multivariate effect reduction is smaller and does not exceed 8 percent in any case. Fig. 3: Period effects on negative evaluations of mothers’ paid employment (estimates with 95 percent confi dence intervals) 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 West German Men East German Men West German Women East German Women EMPLOY (fitted values) Year Source: GGSS (1982-2016, own calculations) 6 In order to calculate the specifi c indirect effects in Tables A1 and A2, calendar time is modelled using a linear term instead of dummy variables. Example: The indirect effect “Year → full-time employed → TGI” is negative (b = -0.0007). This is because, on the one hand, full-time employment of West German women has increased over calendar time (b = 0.002) and, on the other hand, full-time employed women hold more egalitarian attitudes than non-working women (b = -0.359). The specifi c indirect effect equals 0.002 × -0.359 = -0.0007. • Daniel Lois 52 5.2 Cohort effects Next, we look at cohort effects. In Figure 4, the development of traditional gender ideology over 18 birth cohorts is displayed. In Western Germany, a strong trend towards more egalitarian attitudes is apparent. It starts with cohort 1931-1935 for men and with cohort 1936-1940 for women. However, beginning with cohorts 1956-1960 (men) and 1966-1970 (women), the liberalisation trend ends and turns into a sideways trend. Because the cohort effect for TGI in Western Germany can be described as u-shaped, an additional model is specifi ed in which the cohort-specifi c dummy variables were replaced by cohort and cohort squared. Cohort squared has a positive effect for men and women which is statistically signifi cant with p < .01. Thus, the u-shaped pattern is confi rmed by this specifi cation. At this point, the results markedly differ from earlier studies which have reported that every younger cohort is more liberal than its predecessor. Fig. 4: Cohort effects on traditional gender ideology (estimates with 95 percent confi dence intervals) 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 1892-1905 1906-1910 1911-1915 1916-1920 1921-1925 1926-1930 1931-1935 1936-1940 1941-1945 1946-1950 1951-1955 1956-1960 1961-1965 1966-1970 1971-1975 1976-1980 1981-1985 1986-1998 Cohort West German Men West German Women East German Men East German Women Traditional gender ideology (fitted values) Source: GGSS (1982-2016, own calculations) Gender Role Attitudes in Germany, 1982-2016: An Age-Period-Cohort (APC) Analysis • 53 A u-shaped pattern is also observable in Eastern Germany. The trend towards more liberal attitudes mainly spans across cohorts which were socialised prior to German partition (i.e. 1892-1930) or in the early GDR (1934-1945). Starting between birth years 1951-1960, a sideways trend is observable for East German men and East German women which still holds in post-reunifi cation cohorts from 1975 onwards. Furthermore, it is apparent that cohort effects are much stronger in Western Germany because West German cohorts, starting from a rather high baseline level, converge to the East German level. Additionally, gender differences are greater in Eastern Germany because the cohort effect is stronger for East German women than for East German men. With respect to the assessment of mothers’ employment (Fig. 5), cohort effects are weaker. For West German women, a u-shaped pattern is observable with the most egalitarian cohorts between 1941 and 1970. For West German men, the cohort effect is linear negative. Furthermore, if the development in Eastern Germany is compared between the sexes, interesting results emerge. In the case of East German men, no systematic Fig. 5: Cohort effects on negative evaluation of mothers’ paid employment (estimates with 95 percent confi dence intervals) 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 1892-1905 1906-1910 1911-1915 1916-1920 1921-1925 1926-1930 1931-1935 1936-1940 1941-1945 1946-1950 1951-1955 1956-1960 1961-1965 1966-1970 1971-1975 1976-1980 1981-1985 1986-1998 Cohort West German Men West German Women East German Men East German Women EMPLOY (fitted values) Source: GGSS (1982-2016, own calculations) • Daniel Lois 54 cohort effect exists. However, for East German women, the cohort effect clearly follows a u-shaped pattern. Mothers’ paid employment is – with the exception of the oldest cohort – most positively evaluated between birth years 1926-1970, i.e. from those cohorts who were socialised in the GDR. Women in post-reunifi cation cohorts (1971-1975 onwards) are still more sceptical concerning mothers’ employment, however.7 Once again, because of shared mechanisms, it must be mentioned that the cohort effects displayed in Figures 4 and 5 are net of a substantial covariate; familial living arrangement, in this case. The corresponding specifi c indirect effects are given in Tables A1 and A2 in the Appendix.8 5.3 Age effects Finally, to complete the APC analyses, age effects are assessed based on the specifi c indirect effects, which are displayed in Tables 4 and 5 (see also Section 4.2 for a computational example). The results show that TGI increases with West German and East German women over the course of life, as they are less likely to work fulltime with increasing age and, moreover, are less probable to be in training phases. This process begins later with East German women than with West German women. Part-time employment is only of importance among West German women: Women working part-time have more liberal attitudes than non-working women. At the same time, West German women in the middle age groups (29-46 years and 47-61 years) work part-time more often than in the youngest and oldest age groups. For the age group of 29-61 years, part-time employment therefore results in a liberalisation in gender role ideology. As West and East German men are less likely to be affected by family-related career breaks, only the transition to retirement leads to a turn towards more traditional TGI values from age 62 onwards (compared to the 18-28 reference group). For the middle age range (29-46 years), the frequent full-time employment of men has a liberalising effect. Moreover, West German men are particularly affected by partner effects (Kalmijn 2005). Thus, most notably, part-time employment of West German female spouses in the age group 29-62 correlates with a more liberal TGI of the West German male spouse. More importantly, the training phase of the partner has a liberalising effect on the TGI in all age groups, beyond own training phases (cf. Bryant 2003). 7 In a model not shown, the effect of the birth year2 is signifi cant with p < .001, which confi rms the u-shaped pattern of the cohort effect. 8 The analytical approach chosen here is to select three birth cohorts (1926-1930, 1946-1950 and 1976-1980) which are compared to the reference cohort (1906-1910). Most importantly, indirect effects show that respondents from older West German birth cohorts (1906-1910) were on the one hand more frequently unmarried and childless than respondents from younger cohorts. This can be partly explained by the excess mortality of men in the Second World War (Lengerer/ Klein 2007). On the other hand, unmarried and childless persons hold less traditional attitudes than respondents who are married and have children. Accordingly, the respective indirect effects in Tables A1 and A2 are positive. Gender Role Attitudes in Germany, 1982-2016: An Age-Period-Cohort (APC) Analysis • 55 The intervening effects of the familial living arrangement (lower part of Table 4) tend to be rather weak and can only be observed for West Germany. For example, West German women in the age group 29-46 have more liberal attitudes, as they live in an unmarried household with children more often than younger and older women do. Here, married women with children represent the reference category. The TGI of unmarried persons without children is also rather liberal. The loss of Tab. 4: Decomposition of age effects (traditional gender ideology, unstandardised specifi c indirect effects) Indirect effect (mechanism) West German East German Women Men Women Men Employment status Age 29-46  full-time employed  TGI .031** -.022** -.019** -.021** Age 47-61  full-time employed  TGI .052** -.013** .021** -.003 Age 62+  full-time employed  TGI .145** .039** .114** .062** Age 29-46  full-time partner  TGI -.010+ -.012** .005 -.056** Age 47-61  full-time partner  TGI -.002 -.005 -.002 -.046** Age 62+  full-time partner  TGI .016+ .039** -.013 .026** Age 29-46  part-time employed  TGI -.052** .000 -.002 -.000 Age 47-61  part-time employed  TGI -.043** .000 -.001 -.000 Age 62+  part-time employed  TGI .019** .000 .003 .001 Age 29-46  part-time partner  TGI -.001 -.036** -.000 -.004 Age 47-61  part-time partner  TGI .000 -.040** -.000 -.004 Age 62+  part-time partner  TGI -.000 -.003** .000 -.000 Age 29-46  in education  TGI .083** .056** .028** .043** Age 47-61  in education  TGI .088** .059** .034** .044** Age 62+  in education  TGI .098** .066** .041** .048** Age 29-46  partner in education  TGI .008* .023** .007 .030** Age 47-61  partner in education  TGI .009* .027** .008 .032** Age 62+  partner in education  TGI .009* .028** .008 .033** Familial living arrangement Age 29-46  not married, children  TGI -.011** -.004+ -.004 -.001 Age 47-61  not married, children  TGI -.003 -.003 .001 -.000 Age 62+  not married, children  TGI .002 -.002 .001 -.000 Age 29-46  not married, no child  TGI .058** .060** .004 -.004 Age 47-61  not married, no child  TGI .040** .062** .002 -.003 Age 62+  not married, no child  TGI .014** .053** -.000 -.002 Age 29-46  married, no child  TGI .000 -.001 .002 -.003 Age 47-61  married, no child  TGI -.006 -.011 .022 -.019 Age 62+  married, no child  TGI -.006 -.016 .018 -.022 ** p ≤ .01; * p ≤ .05; + p ≤ .10 References: Age 18-28, non-working, married with children Source: GGSS (1982-2016, own calculations) • Daniel Lois 56 importance of this living arrangement over the course of life can partly explain why West German men and women become more traditional with increasing age. A similar decomposition for the EMPLOY dimension is shown in Table 5. Compared with TGI, results of EMPLOY show a similar structure although being weaker than for TGI. Tab. 5: Decomposition of age effects (negative evaluation of mother’s gainful employment, unstandardised specifi c indirect effects) Indirect effect (mechanism) West German East German Women Men Women Men Employment status Age 29-46  full-time employed  E. .023** -.003 -.008* .002 Age 47-61  full-time employed  E. .038** -.002 .009* .000 Age 62+  full-time employed  E. .107** .005 .048** -.006 Age 29-46  full-time partner  E. -.001 -.011** .001 -.028** Age 47-61  full-time partner  E. -.002 -.005 -.000 -.023** Age 62+  full-time partner  EMPLOY .012 .038** -.002 .013** Age 29-46  part-time employed  E. -.053** .000 .002 .001 Age 47-61  part-time employed  E. -.040** .000 .001 .001 Age 62+  part-time employed  E. .019** .001 -.003 -.002 Age 29-46  part-time partner  E. .000 -.033** .002 .004 Age 47-61  part-time partner  E. -.000 -.036** .001 .005 Age 62+  part-time partner  EMPLOY -.000 -.003** -.000 .000 Age 29-46  in education  EMPLOY .053** .006 .019** -.005 Age 47-61  in education  EMPLOY .062** .007 .022** -.005 Age 62+  in education  EMPLOY .064** .008 .027** -.005 Age 29-46  partner in education  E. .004 .010** .003 .006 Age 47-61  partner in education  E. .004 .012** .003 .007 Age 62+  partner in education  E. .004 .013** .003 .007 Familial living arrangement Age 29-46  not married, children  E. -.014** -.006* -.007 -.006 Age 47-61  not married, children  E. -.003 -.004* .001 -.002 Age 62+  not married, children  E. .003 -.003+ .001 -.001 Age 29-46  not married, no child  E. .005 .042** -.008 .004 Age 47-61  not married, no child  E. .004 .043** -.003 .003 Age 62+  not married, no child  E. .001 .037** .001 .002 Age 29-46  married, no child  E. -.000 .000 -.000 -.004+ Age 47-61  married, no child  E. .011 .004 -.005 -.029+ Age 62+  married, no child  EMPLOY .010 .005 -.004 -.033+ ** p ≤ .01; * p ≤ .05; + p ≤ .10 References: Age 18-28, non-working, married with children Source: GGSS (1982-2016, own calculations) Gender Role Attitudes in Germany, 1982-2016: An Age-Period-Cohort (APC) Analysis • 57 6 Conclusion The aim of the present paper was to decompose the change in gender role attitudes, i.e. traditional gender ideology and assesments of mothers’ paid employment, using a full-fl edged, elaborated APC approach as developed by Winship and Harding (2008). A fi rst important result of the analyses is that, in nearly all groups studied, all three time dimensions – age, period, and cohort – have an independent effect. The decomposition of age effects shows that gender attitudes within the lifecourse change according to status passages such as starting education, entering the labour market, or starting a family. These age effects are signifi cant net of period and cohort effects. Thus, the validity of earlier studies which have ignored age is questionable (Braun et al. 1994; Lee et al. 2007). Additionally, the present results are at odds with Baier’s study (2014) which does not identify an independent age effect. By extending the analytical approach to a full APC model, new insights concerning the actual shape of APC effects come to light. This is especially true for cohort effects. Previous studies reported that gender ideology is becoming increasingly egalitarian from cohort to cohort in Germany. The fi ndings presented here slightly contradict this assumption: A relatively pronounced trend towards more egalitarian attitudes is, indeed, initially seen specifi c to Western Germany; this sets in roughly from the 1936-1940 cohort onwards. After a certain time lag in relation to the USA, where no further liberalisation is evident from the 1952 cohort onwards, the trend towards increasingly liberal gender roles nevertheless turns into a sideways trend from the 1956-1960 (men) and 1966-1970 (women) cohorts onwards. This development becomes plausible if it is, at least in part, seen as a historical refl ection of the various phases of the New Women’s Movement. This likely contributed, primarily in the 1970s, to a liberalisation of gender role orientations, forfeiting its pervasive socialisation infl uence to some extent once again in the decades that followed. With the data at hand, it cannot be evaluated to what extent the debate on sexism, e.g. the #MeToo movement from October 2017 onwards, will lead to a reinforcement of the cohort-specifi c liberalisation trend. This is an interesting issue for future research. In Eastern Germany, cohort effects generally tend to be weaker than in Western Germany. Again, the liberalisation trend comes to a halt in some groups and changes into a sideways trend. For example, East German women from the postreunifi cation cohort 1971-1975 increasingly see the employment of women in the context of young children more sceptically. The development of cohort effects in the new federal states appears to be a historical refl ection of the consolidation and dissolution of the GDR. Those in the Eastern German 1940-1960 cohorts are considered to have been most emphatically shaped by a more egalitarian climate of opinion, which was characterised by socialist ideology and the labour market and family policies of the GDR. By contrast, the structural changes in the course of reunifi cation appear to have contributed to a slight weakening of liberalising socialisation infl uences in younger cohorts. Concerning period effects, on the one hand, the present results confi rm earlier research. In all groups a trend towards more liberal attitudes can be observed • Daniel Lois 58 with the passing of calendar time. On the other hand, there are some hints that the period-specifi c trend turns into a sideways trend as well. This is especially true for Eastern Germany since the year 2004. However, potential “fl oor effects” have to be taken into account, because the vast majority of East German respondents disagrees with statements which express traditional attitudes in recent years. Hence, the potential of the GGSS items to measure liberalisation tends to be exhausted. Against this backdrop, it is understandable why new items have been tested since the 2012 GGSS wave. Finally, attention should be drawn to restrictions largely to be found in the type of trend data. In some of the contexts discussed here (e.g., women’s employment, familial living arrangements), the direction of causation is unclear. Does parenthood, for instance, result in traditional gender roles, or are those with traditional attitudes more likely to be parents? Since this study is not based upon panel data, the causal direction can be clarifi ed only to a limited extent. Particularly for determining age and life course effects, panel data are advantageous compared to trend data, as they make repeated observations of the same person before and after central biographical transitions. From a methodological point of view, it has become clear that the mechanismbased approach has high requirements for both theory and data because of the necessity to specify all relevant mechanisms for at least one of the APC dimensions. However, a major advantage of the approach is also confi rmed: while model restrictions in alternative APC models largely remain unproven, it is possible to test the empirical model fi t in the framework of the mechanism-based model. Accordingly, under specifi c conditions, this approach seems to be one of the most promising ways of dealing with the identifi cation problem in the fi eld of future APC analyses. References Acock, Alan C. 2005: Working with Missing Values. In: Journal of Marriage and Family 67: 1012-1028 [doi: 10.1111/j.1741-3737.2005.00191.x]. Amato, Paul R.; Booth, Alan 1995: Changes in Gender Role Attitudes and Perceived Marital Quality. In: American Sociological Review 60,1: 58-66 [doi: 10.2307/2096345]. Arránz Becker, Oliver; Lois, Daniel; Nauck, Bernhard 2010: Differences in Fertility Patterns between East and West German Women. Disentangling the Roles of Culturel Background and of the Transformation Process. In: Comparative Population Studies – Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft 35,1: 7-34 [doi: 10.4232/10.CPoS-2010-02en]. Baier, Dirk 2014: Von der “Krise der Jungen” zum “Triumph der Mädchen”: Entwicklung der Geschlechterrollenorientierung in Deutschland. In: Mößle, Thomas; Pfeiffer, Christian; Baier, Dirk (Eds.): Die Krise der Jungen: Phänomenbeschreibung und Erklärungsansätze Baden-Baden: Nomos: 257-269. Beck, Vanessa 2003: Female Unemployment in the East: Or, How to Stay in the Labuor Market. In: Kolinsky, Eva; Nickel, Hildegard M. (Eds.): Reinventing Gender: Women in Eastern Germany since Reunifi cation. London: Frank Cass: 172-189. Published by Prof. Dr. Norbert F. Schneider Federal Institute for Population Research D-65180 Wiesbaden / Germany 2020 Managing Editor Prof. Dr. Johannes Huinink Dr. Katrin Schiefer Editorial Assistant Beatriz Feiler-Fuchs Wiebke Hamann Layout Beatriz Feiler-Fuchs E-mail: [email protected] Scientifi c Advisory Board Karsten Hank (Cologne) Michaela Kreyenfeld (Berlin) Marc Luy (Vienna) Natalie Nitsche (Rostock) Zsolt Spéder (Budapest) Rainer Wehrhahn (Kiel) Comparative Population Studies www.comparativepopulationstudies.de ISSN: 1869-8980 (Print) – 1869-8999 (Internet) Board of Reviewers Bruno Arpino (Barcelona) Kieron Barclay (Rostock) Laura Bernardi (Lausanne) Gabriele Doblhammer (Rostock) Anette Eva Fasang (Berlin) Michael Feldhaus (Oldenburg) Tomas Frejka (Sanibel) Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz (Vienna) Birgit Glorius (Chemnitz) Fanny Janssen (Groningen) Frank Kalter (Mannheim) Stefanie Kley (Hamburg) Bernhard Köppen (Koblenz) Anne-Kristin Kuhnt (Duisburg) Hill Kulu (St Andrews) Nadja Milewski (Rostock) Roland Rau (Rostock) Thorsten Schneider (Leipzig) Tomas Sobotka (Vienna) Jeroen J. 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