Demographic change in Europe and Central Asia: Addressing the issue of a shrinking and ageing labour force

De Gobbi, Ma ia Sab ina; Kühn, S e an; Heins, Guido; Maliko a, Ziyodakhon
Wo king Pape
Demog aphic change in Eu ope and Cen al Asia:
Add essing he issue o a sh inking and ageing labou
o ce
ILO Wo king Pape , No. 139
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
In e na ional Labou O ganiza ion (ILO), Gene a
Sugges ed Ci a ion: De Gobbi, Ma ia Sab ina; Kühn, S e an; Heins, Guido; Maliko a, Ziyodakhon
(2025) : Demog aphic change in Eu ope and Cen al Asia: Add essing he issue o a sh inking and
ageing labou o ce, ILO Wo king Pape , No. 139, ISBN 978-92-2-042117-8, In e na ional Labou
O ganiza ion (ILO), Gene a,
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XDemog aphic change in Eu ope and
Cen al Asia
Add essing he issue o a sh inking and ageing labou o ce
Au ho s / Ma ia Sab ina De Gobbi, S e an Kühn, Guido Heins, Ziyodakhon Maliko a
Ap il / 2025
ILO Wo king Pape 139
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Sugges ed ci a ion:
De Gobbi, M., Kühn, S., Heins, G., Maliko a, Z. 2025. Demog aphic change in Eu ope and Cen al
Asia: Add essing he issue o a sh inking and ageing labou o ce, ILO Wo king Pape 139 (Gene a,
ILO). h ps://doi.o g/10.54394/UTFG0314
01 ILO Wo king Pape 139
Abs ac
This pape iden i ies exis ing labou ma ke challenges associa ed wi h ageing in Eu ope and
Cen al Asia. I p esen s a gene al o e iew and p o ides ideas o s imula e social dialogue. In
2024, he e we e 28 pe sons aged 65 yea s and abo e pe 100 pe sons aged 15 o 64 yea s and
his a io is p ojec ed o ise o 43 by 2050. The p opo ion o olde wo ke s (55 yea s and abo e)
will inc ease, while he p ime-age wo k o ce (25 o 54 yea s) will decline. This demog aphic an-
si ion is expec ed o esul in a ne loss o 10 million wo ke s in he egion by 2050. As pension
sys ems inc easingly ha e o ely on a diminishing pool o younge wo ke s, sus aining cu en
li ing s anda ds will become mo e challenging. P oduc i i y g ow h in Eu ope and Cen al Asia
has been alling since 1991. New sou ces o p oduc i i y ha e o be unlocked i cu en s and-
a ds o li ing a e o be main ained. Inc easing he labou o ce pa icipa ion o inadequa ely ep-
esen ed g oups, including women, pe sons wi h disabili ies, he you h, mig an s and e ugees
may only pa ially imp o e he si ua ion. Howe e , i would be a s ep o wa d in imp o ing he
ou look o he challenges ha he egion is expe iencing.
Abou he au ho s
Ma ia Sab ina De Gobbi is a Senio Economis in he ILO Resea ch Depa men on secondmen
a he Regional O ice o Eu ope and Cen al Asia since No embe 2024. She has been wo k-
ing a he In e na ional Labou O ganiza ion since 1998 mainly as an economis . She holds ad-
anced uni e si y deg ees co e ing he a eas o economics, law and en i onmen al managemen
om ins i u ions including he T ies e Uni e si y in I aly, Tu s Uni e si y in he Uni ed S a es and
Impe ial College and he School o A ican and O ien al S udies in he Uni ed Kingdom.
S e an Kühn is a Senio Economis in he ILO Resea ch Depa men . S e an has as expe ience
in analysing o and epo ing on global and egional labou ma ke ends. He is he main au ho
o mul iple edi ions o he ILO’s Wo ld Employmen and Social Ou look: T ends epo s and o
he ecen ly published Asia-Paci ic Employmen and Social Ou look. His p ima y expe ise lies in
econome ic analysis, econome ic modelling and s uc u al mac oeconomic modelling. S e an
ob ained his PhD in Economics om Maas ich Uni e si y in he Ne he lands.
Guido Heins is a Technical O ice a he ILO Regional O ice o Eu ope and Cen al Asia. He be-
gan his ca ee wi h he In e na ional Labou O ganiza ion in 2019, p ima ily concen a ing on
e alua ing and inancing social p o ec ion sys ems. Mo e ecen ly, he se ed in a quan i a i e
esea che ole a UNU-MERIT, ocusing on social p o ec ion, while also con ibu ing o he mas-
e ’s p og am as eaching s a . He holds an M.Sc. in public policy and human de elopmen om
he same ins i u ion, a join deg ee wi h Maas ich Uni e si y.
Ziyodakhon Maliko a is a Junio Economis wi h expe ise in labou ma ke s, social p o ec ion,
AI, and sus ainable de elopmen , wi h a ocus on employmen ends, demog aphic change,
and digi al ansi ions. She joined he In e na ional Labou O ganiza ion as an Employmen and
Social Policy In e n a he Regional O ice o Eu ope and Cen al Asia in 2024. She holds an MSc
in Economics om he Uni e si y o Bonn and b ings s ong capabili ies in da a analysis, impac
assessmen , and inclusi e policy design.

02 ILO Wo king Pape 139
Abs ac 01
Abou he au ho s 01
XIn oduc ion 04
X1 Popula ion and labou o ce ends 06
Popula ion ends 06
Labou o ce ends 07
Economic dependency and p oduc i i y 11
Ageing and labou sho ages 14
X2 Conside a ionso speci icca ego ieso wo ke s  16
A ocusonolde wo ke s  16
Women in he labou ma ke 18
Pe sonswi hdisabili iesand hei labou ma ke challenges  20
Si ua iono youngwo ke s  21
Mig an wo ke sand e ugees  23
Bene i s and challenges o des ina ion coun ies 24
Bene i s and challenges o o igin coun ies 25
XConclusion 27
Appendix. Me hodology unde lying he long- e m p ojec ions o labou o ce pa icipa ion
a es 30
Re e ences 32
Acknowledgemen s  38
Table o con en s
03 ILO Wo king Pape 139
Lis o Figu es
Figu e 1. Old-age a ios in Eu ope and Cen al Asia, 2024 and 2050 p ojec ions 06
Figu e2.Scena iop ojec ions o old-age a ionsinEu ope’sin2050,wi handwi hou mi-
g a ion 07
Figu e 3. Composi ion o he labou o ce in Eu ope and Cen al Asia, by age g oup, 2000–50,
(million) 08
Figu e 4. Labou o ce pa icipa ion a es and p ojec ions in Eu ope, by sex and age g oup,
1991, 2024 and 2050 (pe cen age) 09
Figu e 5. Labou o ce pa icipa ion a es and p ojec ions in Cen al and Wes e n Asia, by
sex and age g oup, 1991, 2024 and 2050 (pe cen age) 10
Figu e 6. Sha e o hose aged 55 yea s and abo e in he labou o ce in Eu ope and Cen al
Asia, by sub egion, 2000–50 (pe cen age) 11
Figu e7.Impac o demog aphyandemploymen  a eona e ageannualGDPg ow h,in
Eu ope and Cen al Asia, 2024–50 (pe cen age poin s) 13
Figu e 8. You h no in employmen , educa ion o aining in Eu ope and Cen al Asia, 2024,
by sex (pe cen age) 19
Figu e 9. You h no in employmen , educa ion o aining in Eu ope and Cen al Asia, 2005–
24 (pe cen age) 22
Figu e 10. P opo ion o in e na ional mig an s in he labou o ce in Eu ope and Cen al
Asia, by b oad sub egion, 2013–22 (pe cen age) 24
04 ILO Wo king Pape 139
XIn oduc ion
Eu ope and Cen al Asia,1 like he es o he wo ld, is unde going a apid demog aphic ans-
o ma ion. Pa icula ly in Eu ope, he p ime wo king-age popula ion (25 o 54 yea s) is sh ink-
ing due o low e ili y a es, wi h some Eu opean coun ies, and mainly in Eas e n Eu ope, also
su e ing om alen emig a ion. Al hough o al e ili y in Cen al Asia and Is ael emains abo e
he eplacemen le el, lowe bi h a es and highe longe i y ha e caused signi ican shi s in he
popula ion s uc u e. The ensuing ising economic dependency o he non-employed on wo k-
e s and sh inking labou o ce h ea ens economic weal h – bo h a he agg ega e le el due o
he isk o hampe ing economic de elopmen , bu also a he indi idual le el, by s aining he
capaci y o exis ing social p o ec ion sys ems o p o ide adequa e old-age pensions. Sec ion 1
o his pape add esses he issue o a sh inking and ageing wo king popula ion in Eu ope and
Cen al Asia as well as he challenges ha may a ise om demog aphic shi s. I o e s a snap-
sho o he cu en demog aphic and labou ma ke ends in he egion. Issues s emming om
an ageing labou o ce and ising dependency a ios a e desc ibed.
Socie ies need o de ine and s a egize how o eac o he challenges posed by demog aphic
change and ising dependency a ios. To mi iga e he impac o such challenges, he pa icipa-
ion in he labou o ce o speci ic ca ego ies o people who a e p esen ly no ully engaged can
be expanded, in pa icula women, olde wo ke s and young people, pe sons wi h disabili ies,
and mig an wo ke s and e ugees. Sec ion 2 o his pape in es iga es he labou ma ke cha -
ac e is ics o hose g oups and highligh s some challenges which hinde g ea e pa icipa ion
by hem. The analysis aises se e al ques ions c i ical o secu ing an adequa e sha e o he eco-
nomically ac i e popula ion wi h decen wo k, suppo ing he young and elde ly, na ional heal h-
ca e sys ems and social p o ec ion schemes.
The sha e o olde wo ke s will also keep ising on accoun o longe and heal hie li es. Olde
wo ke s may ha e age-speci ic cha ac e is ics in e ms o physical and men al i ness, skills and
expe ience acqui ed, and le els o p oduc i i y. How can he po en ial o olde wo ke s be apped?
How can hei ac i e s a us in he labou ma ke be suppo ed in p oduc i e and well-paying
economic ac i i ies?
The pe sis en inequali y in he dis ibu ion o unpaid ca e wo k, disp opo iona ely bo ne by
women, and he inadequacy o childca e, elde ly ca e, long- e m ca e and ela ed ca e lea e pol-
icies and in as uc u e signi ican ly hinde women’s labou ma ke pa icipa ion, hei abili y o
balance bo h unpaid ca e and paid wo k, as well as hei b oade economic secu i y, heal h and
well-being. How can policies os e women’s pa icipa ion in he labou ma ke and hei igh
o decen wo k?
Pe sons wi h disabili ies a e inac i e o unemployed in highe sha es han he es o he wo k-
ing-age popula ion. Recen de elopmen s including digi aliza ion, a i icial in elligence (AI) and
elewo k can make i easie o pe sons wi h disabili ies o be employed in p oduc i e, decen
1The 51 ILO Membe S a es in he Eu ope and Cen al Asia egion a e: Albania, A menia, Aus ia, Aze baijan, Bela us, Belgium, Bosnia
and He zego ina, Bulga ia, C oa ia, Cyp us, Czechia, Denma k, Es onia, Finland, F ance, Geo gia, Ge many, G eece, Hunga y, Iceland,
I eland, Is ael, I aly, Kazakhs an, Ky gyzs an, La ia, Li huania, Luxembou g, Mal a, Mon eneg o, Ne he lands, No h Macedonia,
No way, Poland, Po ugal, Republic o Moldo a, Romania, Russian Fede a ion, San Ma ino, Se bia, Slo akia, Slo enia, Spain, Sweden,
Swi ze land, Tajikis an, Tü kiye, Tu kmenis an, Uk aine, Uni ed Kingdom and Uzbekis an. Koso o is also included as de ined in UN
Secu i y Council Resolu ion 1244 o 1999.
05 ILO Wo king Pape 139
jobs. How can he employmen o pe sons wi h disabili ies be suppo ed and hei ac i e pa ic-
ipa ion in he labou ma ke be boos ed?
The le el o you h who a e no in employmen , educa ion o aining (NEET) in Eu ope and Cen al
Asia s ands a a he high le els. How can you h employmen be inc eased join ly wi h ising le -
els o pa icipa ion o olde people in he labou o ce?
Talen ed and skilled you h a e lea ing some a eas in Eu ope and Cen al Asia, such as he Wes e n
Balkans, o emig a e o o he coun ies in he egion which ha e s a ed p og ammes o a ac
o eign, quali ied labou o ce. How can de elopmen policies encou age he e u n o skilled
emig a ed you h?
Ce ain mig a ion mo emen s a e qui e cons an in some a eas, and con lic s in he egion ha e
gene a ed lows o e ugees ha ha e he po en ial o suppo he sh inking labou o ce o hos
coun ies. How can coun ies ensu e he inclusion o mig an wo ke s and e ugees in hei la-
bou ma ke s o be e suppo sh inking labou o ces in he egion? Which policies acili a e
he in eg a ion o e ugees in na ional labou ma ke s? How can decen wo king condi ions be
secu ed o all wo ke s, including mig an s, especially in hose sec o s o e ing jobs o low qual-
i y, whe e local quali ied candida es e use employmen ?
P oduc i i y is undamen al o economic de elopmen and highe wages. I is also a key compo-
nen o sus ained, sus ainable and inclusi e de elopmen . Ye , ecen p oduc i i y g ow h has
been low, which is ex emely p oblema ic gi en he ising dependency a io in he egion – which
is he numbe o pe sons below he age o 15 yea s and 65 yea s and olde compa ed o hose
aged 15 o 64 yea s. Fu he mo e, wi h apid echnological shi s and ising p essu es b ough
on by clima e change, boos ing p oduc i i y may no bene i e e yone equally. How can p oduc-
i i y gains be os e ed and equally dis ibu ed among all indi iduals, including hose who a e
ulne able, who a e socially excluded o who ace disc imina ion?
This pape iden i ies exis ing labou ma ke challenges associa ed wi h ageing. Social dialogue
o en plays an impo an ole in he iden i ica ion and implemen a ion o solu ions, and such
ins ances a e highligh ed. I is o social pa ne s and policymake s o choose he mos app o-
p ia e mechanisms o mi iga e he labou ma ke challenges associa ed wi h hei ageing so-
cie ies. This pape p esen s a gene al o e iew and p o ides ideas o s imula e social dialogue
wi h he guiding ques ions abo e.
12 ILO Wo king Pape 139
pa s o socie y.7 G owing GDP pe capi a makes i mo e likely o es ablish edis ibu i e sys ems
whe e no pa o socie y aces con inually declining incomes. Ye , main aining ising GDP pe
capi a could p o e o be e y challenging in Eu ope and Cen al Asia. Fu he mo e, ising GDP
pe capi a is no gua an ee o imp o ed well-being – achie ing inclusi e, sus ained and sus ain-
able de elopmen goes a beyond aising a single numbe .
The combined e ec o ends in wo king-age popula ion g ow h and employmen a es is p o-
jec ed o lowe he a e age annual GDP g ow h be ween 2024 and 2050 by 0.1 pe cen age poin s
in Eu ope and Cen al Asia (see igu e 7). G ow h o labou p oduc i i y – when de ined as ou pu
pe wo ke – would need o be a leas as la ge o s abilize GDP. The impac anges om nega-
i e 0.7 pe cen age poin s in Sou he n Eu ope o posi i e 1.0 pe cen age poin s in Cen al Asia.
Eas e n and Sou he n Eu ope a e he only wo sub egions whe e sh inking popula ions p esen
a majo d ag o a ound 0.3 o 0.4 pe cen age poin s on GDP g ow h, while No he n Eu ope,
Cen al Asia and Wes e n Asia a e expec ed o see a posi i e con ibu ion om wo king-age
popula ion g ow h. The change in he employmen a e is p ojec ed o lowe GDP g ow h by
0.6 pe cen age poin s annually in Cen al Asia bu inc ease i sligh ly in No he n Eu ope. The
baseline Eu opean labou o ce p ojec ion includes ises in he LFPR o olde wo ke s and wom-
en by 2050, which cushions he o e all impac o demog aphic change on agg ega e LFPR and
employmen a es. I hose ises we e no o happen bu ins ead he LFPR o all demog aphic
g oups we e o emain a hei 2024 le el, hen he ensuing addi ional all in he employmen
a e would lowe a e age annual GDP g ow h by an addi ional 0.3 o 0.4 pe cen age poin s in
Eu ope.8 In his al e na i e scena io, Eu ope would see GDP decline by 0.6 pe cen age poin s
pe yea , and Sou he n Eu ope e en by 1.0 pe cen age poin s, unless ma ched by an equi alen
ise in labou p oduc i i y.9
7Rele an ILO Con en ions a e he Social Secu i y (Minimum S anda ds) Con en ion, 1952 (No. 102), he In alidi y, Old-Age and
Su i o s’ Bene i s Con en ion, 1967 (No. 128), and he Social P o ec ion Floo s Recommenda ion, 2012 (No. 202) (see ILO 2021a).
8Unde he al e na i e scena io, he labou o ce in 2050 would be be ween 7 and 10 pe cen below he baseline scena io in he
Eu opean sub egions. Cen al and Wes e n Asia is p ojec ed o expe ience b oadly declining LFPRs, so ha such a scena io is mean-
ingless.
9A scena io o cons an LFPR by demog aphic g oup is used in Madga ka e al. (2025), explaining he la ge p oduc i i y implica ions
esul ing in ha s udy.

13 ILO Wo king Pape 139
XFigu e7.Impac o demog aphyandemploymen  a eona e ageannualGDPg ow h,inEu opeand
Cen al Asia, 2024–50 (pe cen age poin s)
No e: GDP g ow h can be decomposed in o g ow h o he wo king-age popula ion plus he g ow h o he a io o employmen o
he wo king-age popula ion plus he g ow h o ou pu pe employed (labou p oduc i i y). The igu e depic s he a e age annual
g ow h e ec o he i s wo componen s be ween 2024 and 2050, whe e he o al e ec o demog aphic change is he sum o
hese e ec s. The igu e also shows he addi ional g ow h e ec in addi ion o he baseline e ec o a scena io whe e LFPRs o
demog aphic g oups in Eu ope we e o emain a hei 2024 le el, which would esul in a lowe o e all LFPR by 2050. The inal
impac on GDP depends on u u e labou p oduc i i y g ow h, which is no shown in he igu e, as i is unknown.
Sou ce: ILO es ima es.
Ageing socie ies could ace lowe p oduc i i y g ow h h ough se e al channels. Ye , empi ical
e idence o mos o hose is sca ce o inconclusi e, highligh ing he need o u he esea ch.10
While expe ience aises p oduc i i y, his e ec ends o diminish wi h he yea s, sugges ing li le
addi ional bene i o coun ies in Eu ope and Cen al Asia ha al eady ha e ai ly aged wo k-
o ces (Gaglia di, G inza and Rycx 2023; Gues 2013; Guzzo, Nalban ian and Ande son 2022).
On he con a y, since younge wo ke s end o adop new echnologies as e and mo e ead-
ily, i ms migh mo e beyond he op imal mix o young e sus olde wo ke s as he ageing o
he labou o ce con inues, he eby lowe ing p oduc i i y g ow h (Gues 2013). O e all, mic oe-
conomic s udies a e no conclusi e on he age–p oduc i i y e ec in i ms, and in addi ion hey
o en ail o es ablish causali y (Bø ing and G øgaa d 2023; Gues 2013).11 Olde wo ke s end
o wo k ewe hou s, which would lowe ou pu pe wo ke e en i hou ly p oduc i i y we e o
emain he same. Since people usually sa e mos while ea ning incomes on he labou ma ke ,
ageing popula ions end o expe ience a dissa ing e ec , which could educe a ailable domes ic
esou ces o in es men . Ageing socie ies could expe ience a ising heal h and o he ca e de-
mand, o he de imen o demand o o he goods and se ices. Ye , ca e sec o s end o expe-
ience lowe p oduc i i y g ow h. As hei sha e in o al employmen will likely inc ease, p oduc-
i i y g ow h in high-g ow h sec o s would need o accele a e o po en ially una ainable le els in
o de o main ain a cons an agg ega e p oduc i i y g ow h (Due ne cke and Sanchez-Ma inez
2021; Sheine and Malino skaya 2016)12. Howe e , ma ke p icing, as is used o measu ing GDP,
10 Gues (2013) p o ides a sho discussion o he a ious channels, as well as he exis ing e idence ega ding hei size.
11 Sec ion 2 discusses olde wo ke s in he labou ma ke in mo e de ail.
12
Baumol’s e ec desc ibes he phenomenon ha wages in se ice sec o s wi h lowe p oduc i i y g ow h po en ial keep up wi h wages
o high p oduc i i y g ow h sec o s in o de o a ac wo ke s o hese sec o s. O e ime, he sha e o employmen in high-g ow h
sec o s is alling.
14 ILO Wo king Pape 139
does no always e lec he ue con ibu ion o ac i i ies o people’s well-being – a p oblem pa -
icula ly ele an o unde alued ca e ac i i ies. Finally, many Eu opean coun ies no only ace
ageing, bu also an ac ual sh inking o he popula ion, meaning ha u u e in e nal demand is
alling. P oduc i i y g ow h could all when i ms cu R&D expendi u e and in es men in o new
p oduc ion echnology o a oid isks ela ing o a sh inking ma ke . The cu en geopoli ical en-
i onmen , whe e u u e condi ions o access o global ma ke s o i ms in Eu ope and Cen al
Asia g ow in unce ain y, only ein o ces his h ea .
Facing downwa d p essu e om employmen ends and ageing wo k o ces and socie ies, main-
aining GDP g ow h in Eu ope will equi e a majo boos in p oduc i i y g ow h. Ye , p oduc i -
i y g ow h in Eu ope ell om 1.8 pe cen pe yea in he pe iod 1991 o 2007 down o only 0.8
pe cen pe yea in he pe iod 2007 o 2024. Such a p oduc i i y g ow h a e ba ely su passes
he p ojec ed d ag om demog aphic change, wi hou e en conside ing he po en ial addi ion-
al e ec s o ageing on p oduc i i y g ow h. I his end we e o con inue, i is o eseeable ha
Eu ope would soon ace sh inking GDP. Cen al and Wes e n Asia also expe ienced a majo de-
cele a ion o annual p oduc i i y g ow h om 4.1 pe cen in he pe iod 1991 o 2007 o 2.5 pe
cen in he pe iod 2007 o 2024. This end ende s he challenge o “ge ing ich be o e ge ing
old”13 mo e di icul . The downwa d end in labou p oduc i i y g ow h is a global phenomenon
oo ed in a ange o ac o s going a beyond demog aphic change (ILO 2023a). Con e sely, he
ising dependency a io due o ageing necessi a es inc easing p oduc i i y g ow h. Consequen ly,
Eu ope and Cen al Asia need o unlock new sou ces o p oduc i i y g ow h o main ain ising
s anda ds o li ing ac oss he boa d.
Ageing and labou sho ages
Shi ing demand pa e ns could cause sec o al labou sho ages. Labou sho ages a ise when
employe s ail o ill job openings because o a lack o sui able candida es. This can occu be-
cause o an o e all sho age o wo ke s, a misma ch be ween equi ed skills and candida e p o-
iles, a disconnec be ween wo ke s’ expec a ions and he cha ac e is ics o a ailable jobs, o a
combina ion o hese ac o s (ILO 2024a). Ageing shi s consump ion pa e ns, as olde pe sons
end o ha e di e en p e e ences and needs. Fo example, he numbe o wo ke s equi ed o
long- e m ca e alone is p ojec ed o inc ease by 35 pe cen , o 6 million, be ween 2023 and 2050
in Eu ope and Cen al Asia, which co esponds o an addi ional 1.6 pe cen o all employed.14
O he o ms o ca e wo k, bu also o he se ices, could also see ising demands. Those addi ion-
al wo ke s needed would no be a ailable in o he sec o s o he economy, he eby e ec i ely
lowe ing he labou supply o hose o he sec o s. Howe e , a majo cu en p oblem seems o
be he inabili y o ill acancies in ca e occupa ions due o a numbe o ac o s such as gende ed
occupa ional seg ega ion, low pay and poo wo king condi ions (ELA 2024).
Ma ke o ces alone a e unlikely o esol e all sec o al labou sho ages due o he la ge go e n-
men in ol emen in key sec o s and ins i u ions, such as ca e and educa ion. Ma ke o ces and
collec i e ba gaining alle ia e sec o -speci ic labou sho ages h ough labou -sa ing echnological
inno a ions and mo e a ac i e wo king condi ions. App op ia e aining and skill de elopmen
a e unlikely o ollow om ma ke o ces alone bu ins ead will equi e ex e nal s ee ing. The ILO
esolu ion conce ning decen wo k and he ca e economy (ILO 2024c) s a es ha he S a e has
13 The ph ase “ge old be o e ge ing ich” is commonly used in li e a u e and media epo s on demog aphics and e e s o he phe-
nomenon ha a coun y will each a supe -aged socie y wi h a high old-age economic dependency a io, and i s po en ial implica-
ions o p oduc i i y g ow h, be o e i can a ain high-income s a us (Lee 2017).
14 The me hodology is desc ibed in ILO (2024b).
15 ILO Wo king Pape 139
a p ima y esponsibili y o ca e p o ision, unding, egula ion and ensu ing high s anda ds o
quali y, sa e y and heal h o ca e wo ke s and ca e ecipien s. The need o adequa e inanc-
ing o a ac enough wo ke s aces budge a y cons ain s, c ea ing con lic s be ween di e en
in e es g oups. All his means ha long- e m planning and s ee ing, h ough social dialogue
mechanisms, is equi ed o de elop app op ia e educa ion and aining p og ammes and o al-
loca e su icien esou ces.
Despi e a p ojec ed decline in he labou o ce, i is unclea whe he Eu ope will un ou o wo k-
e s and ace agg ega e labou sho ages. Technological inno a ion and AI could c ea e la ge
e iciency gains, bo h in e ms o complemen ing and subs i u ing wo ke s (Gmy ek, Be g and
Bescond 2023), e en hough such gains ha e ailed o boos agg ega e p oduc i i y g ow h so
a . And his o y shows ha e en in he ace o massi e ans o ma i e changes, coun ies end
no o un ou o ei he wo ke s o jobs.
16 ILO Wo king Pape 139
X2 Conside a ions o speci ic ca ego ies o wo ke s
A ocus on olde wo ke s
Al hough he e is no in e na ionally ag eed de ini ion o “olde wo ke s”, hey can be conside ed
employees aged o e 55 yea s. The ILO’s Olde Wo ke s Recommenda ion, 1980 (No. 162), p o-
ides ha , as s a ed in ILO (2024d):
“Olde wo ke s a e all wo ke s who migh encoun e employmen and occupa ion- ela ed di i-
cul ies due o he ad ancemen o hei age; a mo e p ecise de ini ion o olde wo ke s, includ-
ing speci ic age ca ego ies may be adop ed in coun ies consis en wi h na ional p ac ice and
local condi ions.”
The e is now gene al ag eemen ha age is no he only de e minan o heal h and job pe o -
mance. Ageing migh , none heless, in ol e physical and men al changes ha ha e an impac
on he way wo k is pe o med.
Physical changes include dec eased lung capaci y, educed muscula s eng h and endu ance,
poo e hea ing and ision, longe ime o eco e om wo k, backache and sleeping di icul-
ies, as well as o he ch onic heal h issues, such as ca dio ascula p oblems. Fu he mo e, o e
he age o 45, wo ke s ha e a lowe hea ole ance han younge employees (Shepha d 2000),
which makes hem mo e ulne able o he consequences o ising empe a u es caused by cli-
ma e change. This makes hem expe ience mo e occupa ional acciden s han hei younge col-
leagues and wi h mo e se e e inju ies (ILO 2024e).
Conce ning cogni i e unc ioning, as he age o 70 app oaches, he abili y o sol e complica ed
issues and p ocess complex in o ma ion (“ luid in elligence”) weakens, al hough hese limi a-
ions a e no mally compensa ed by expe ience. Besides age, o he ac o s, such as li es yle and
wo king condi ions, de e mine he heal h o olde wo ke s. This is why i is p e e able o alk
abou “ unc ional age” a he han “ch onological age” o desc ibe someone’s abili y o wo k.15
The ela ion be ween indi idual p oduc i i y and age is no s aigh o wa d. I is closely linked o
he echnology used and o he wo k con en . Fac o s o he han age, such as educa ion, ha e
a much s onge impac on p oduc i i y han ageing (P skawe z and Lindh 2006). Aged and
skilled labou is likely o ha e had a posi i e e ec on p oduc i i y in he Eu opean Union in he
las decade (EC 2024). Ex ensi e expe ience and knowledge compensa e o changes in heal h
condi ions and cogni i e capabili ies. Olde wo ke s ou pe o m hei younge colleagues in ex-
pe ience, us and independence (Ei e, Mulle and Webe 2024).
Declines in cogni i e skills may be alle ia ed h ough aining. None heless, olde wo ke s ake
pa in li elong lea ning less o en han o he age coho s (OECD 2022a). On one hand, compa-
nies end o o e ewe aining oppo uni ies o olde wo ke s compa ed o hei younge col-
leagues, and on he o he , olde wo ke s hemsel es a e less inclined o welcome aining ac i -
i ies (ILO 2024b). The lea ning p ocesses o olde employees a e di e en om hose o younge
15
See h ps://oshwiki.osha.eu opa.eu/en/ hemes/olde -wo ke s#:~: ex =Olde %20women%20(aged%2055%2D64,o %20 he%20EU%20
Membe %20S a es..
17 ILO Wo king Pape 139
colleagues. Mul iple ins uc ional me hods, including lec u ing, ac i e pa icipa ion and model-
ling, a e mo e conduci e me hods o olde wo ke s’ lea ning. Sel -pacing, on- he-job and ap-
plied aining a e o he e ec i e aining modali ies o his age g oup (Picchio 2021). Con en
wise, olde employees seem o be in pa icula need o digi al skills and skills o he g een an-
si ion. In some coun ies, such as La ia, speci ic aining p og ammes o each skills o he
g een ansi ion o olde adul s ha e been o ganized. AI can help olde wo ke s pe o m cogni-
i e, non- ou ine asks. I can also enhance p oduc i i y. Olde wo ke s end o ha e poo digi al
skills, and, a p esen , speci ic, a ge ed skills policies a e absen (OECD 2024).
Olde wo ke s a e o en employed in jobs o low quali y, wi h highe a es o wo king po e y, low
pay and less social p o ec ion co e age and ep esen a ion han o he coho s. When hey lose
hei job, i is di icul o hem o ind ano he one o simila quali y and pay. Fo me employees
who become en ep eneu s imp o e hei li e quali y, bu hey ecei e a lowe income (ILO 2024b).
As able 1 shows, o all he indica o s conside ed, olde wo ke s ha e a highe incidence, and
o some o hem by a la ge ma gin. Some o he igu es a e clea ly connec ed. Fo example,
olde wo ke s (65+) ha e a much highe incidence o u al employmen , pa - ime employmen ,
no high-skill employmen and ag icul u e employmen , which sugges s ha olde people in u-
al ag icul u al a eas end o wo k longe han hei u ban coun e pa s, as sel -employed and
in o mal wo ke s. The sha es o women in in o mal and pa - ime jobs as well as in low-skill oc-
cupa ions a e highe , indica ing he li e-cycle gende inequali ies.
XTable1.Di e enceinincidenceo employmen cha ac e is icso olde wo ke scompa ed op ime-age
wo ke sinEu opeandCen alAsia(pe cen agepoin s)
Indica o Wo ke s aged 55–64 com-
pa ed o 25–54
Wo ke s aged 65+ compa ed
o 25–54
To al Women Men To al Women Men
Pa - ime employmen 4.4 5.6 4.0 31.8 30.2 35.9
Ru al employmen 4.1 3.7 4.3 7.1 6.7 7.1
In o mali y 5.8 7.3 5.5 21.9 24.1 22.7
Own-accoun and con ibu ing amily wo k 6.1 6.9 6.0 31.1 32.8 32.0
Medium and low-skill occupa ion 5.6 7.4 4.1 7.0 10.8 2.6
Ag icul u e employmen 10.9 11.9 10.3 36.8 38.3 35.3
No e: The able shows he unweigh ed mean ac oss coun ies wi h a ailable da a o he di e ence in he incidence o a ce ain
ype o employmen be ween olde and p ime-age wo ke s.
Sou ce: ILO calcula ions based on ILOSTAT.
S e eo ypes and p ejudice agains olde wo ke s a e s ill widesp ead. The ILO’s Disc imina ion
(Employmen and Occupa ion) Con en ion, 1958 (No. 111), does no men ion age as a g ound
o disc imina ion. Howe e , Membe S a es a e allowed o in oduce o he g ounds. The ILO’s
Employmen P omo ion and P o ec ion agains Unemploymen Con en ion, 1988 (No. 168), p o-
ides ha Membe S a es a e expec ed o ensu e equal ea men on he basis o age, among o h-
e g ounds (ILO 2024d). Fu he mo e, Recommenda ion No. 162 u ges s a es o “ ake measu es
o he p e en ion o disc imina ion in employmen and occupa ion wi h ega d o olde wo ke s.”
Some coun ies in Eu ope and Cen al Asia such as Aus ia, Aze baijan, Li huania and he
Ne he lands ha e adop ed measu es o imp o e he posi i e image o ageing and o oppose
ageism agains olde pe sons. Such ac ions include in o ma ion campaigns h ough he media

18 ILO Wo king Pape 139
and in e gene a ional dialogue, among o he s. Na ional legal p o isions agains disc imina ion
in employmen by eason o age exis in some coun ies in he egion, o example Bela us,
Finland and Tü kiye (UNECE 2023).
Despi e he challenges ha olde wo ke s ace in he labou ma ke , he sh inking and ageing
popula ion ha Eu ope and Cen al Asia a e con on ed wi h calls o measu es aimed a e ain-
ing hose who wish o wo k and employing hose who a e unemployed o inac i e (UNECE 2025).
Olde wo ke s may lea e he labou ma ke p ema u ely, e en when hey a e employed on jobs
ha a e no manual and s enuous. In some Eu opean coun ies in ecen yea s, he s a u o-
y e i emen age has been inc eased. In a ew Eu opean coun ies, including he mos ageing
ones, such as I aly and G eece, e i emen age is p esen ly 67 yea s. In Denma k, i has been
aised o 69 yea s ollowing an ag eemen be ween he social pa ne s and he Go e nmen
(Ei e, Mulle and Webe 2024).
Ageing socie ies a e also p esen in o he egions o he wo ld, including Asia and Paci ic, whe e
Japan has ecen ly in oduced special ules o encou age he e en ion o olde wo ke s beyond
no mal e i emen age. As o Ap il 2025, Japanese companies may de ia e om manda o y e-
i emen age, which is ixed a 65 yea s, and in oduce a con inuous employmen sys em based
on e-employmen o ex ended employmen whe eby olde wo ke s can wo k un il hey a e o e
70 yea s o age (Asada 2024).
Women in he labou ma ke
The LFPRs o women a e lowe han hose o men, e en hough in some Eu opean coun ies
he gap is small. Fu he mo e, women ea n less han hei male coun e pa s, wi h a a io o
women’s o men’s labou income in Eu ope and Cen al Asia a 61.9 pe cen in 2024 (ILO 2024 ).
The need o inc ease he sha e o he economically ac i e popula ion in he egion has u ged
go e nmen s o s imula e highe le els o emale pa icipa ion in labou ma ke s. Fac o s which
hinde decen employmen o women include balancing paid wo k and unpaid ca e and do-
mes ic wo k, gende ed sec o al and occupa ion seg ega ion, as well as social and disc imina o y
no ms, iolence and ha assmen a wo k, and “so ” o “indi ec ” disc imina ion o gende -biased
skills in ca ee ad ancemen (ILO 2010, 2025a).
Women a e s ill conside ed as he main “ca egi e ”. Those who a e p ime age wi h young chil-
d en, low educa ion le els and li ing in u al a eas a e less likely o be in he labou o ce and
subjec o mo e disp opo iona e esponsibili y o unpaid ca e. Young women aged 15 o 24
yea s a e mo e o en NEET compa ed o male coun e pa s o he same age. The NEET gende
gap in Eu ope and Cen al Asia in 2024 was 3.5 pe cen age poin s compa ed o a global gap o
14 pe cen age poin s (ILO 2024 ; see igu e 8).
19 ILO Wo king Pape 139
XFigu e 8. You h no in employmen , educa ion o aining in Eu ope and Cen al Asia, 2024, by sex (pe cen -
age)
Sou ce: ILOSTAT, ILO modelled es ima es, No embe 2024; ILO es ima es.
Ca e wo k includes “childca e, elde ca e, ca e o hose wi h physical and men al illnesses and
disabili ies, access o ea men o pe sons li ing wi h HIV, educa ion, heal hca e, and pe sonal
social and domes ic se ices, as well as daily domes ic wo k such as cooking, cleaning, washing
and mending” (ILO 2024g). Women p o ide 76.2 pe cen o unpaid ca e wo k globally, which
hinde s hei pa icipa ion, e en ion and p og ession in he labou ma ke . Popula ion ageing
and he impac o clima e change a e u he inc easing ca e esponsibili ies and he need o
social p o ec ion and ca e se ices. In 2023 in Eu ope and Cen al Asia, 21 pe cen o inac i e
women jus i ied hei s a us wi h ca e esponsibili ies. On accoun o social policies and wo k-
place p ac ices in he pas suppo ing women’s employmen , Eas e n Eu ope eco ded he low-
es a e a 11 pe cen (ILO 2024h).
In es ing in ca e se ices, especially childca e se ices, and pa en al and childca e lea e is un-
damen al o enhancing women’s pa icipa ion in he labou ma ke . Bela us, Bulga ia, La ia and
Sweden a e examples o coun ies whe e less han 10 pe cen o women a e ou side he labou
o ce because o ca egi ing (no necessa ily childca e), hanks o in es men s in ea ly childhood
ca e and educa ion (ECCE) o abou 1 pe cen o GDP. Ky gyzs an and he Republic o Moldo a
also in es be ween 1 and 1.5 pe cen o GDP in ECCE. O he Eu opean coun ies, such as Poland
and Slo akia, a e inc easing in es men s in ECCE and pa en al lea e (ILO 2024h).
The ILO Global Ca e Policy In es men Simula o es ima es ha in Aze baijan, in es ing in uni-
e sal childca e and long- e m ca e se ices could gene a e mo e han 390,000 jobs by 2030,
co esponding o 128,000 di ec jobs in childca e, 232,000 di ec jobs in long- e m ca e and mo e
han 30,000 indi ec jobs in non-ca e sec o .16 E e y dolla in es ed in closing he childca e policy
gap could esul in an a e age inc ease o US$4.19 o GDP in 2030 om mo he s egaining hei
p e-bi h ea nings o e hei li e ime. A simila exe cise on Uzbekis an an icipa es he c ea ion
o o e one million jobs by 2030, wi h e e y US dolla in es ed in closing he childca e policy gap
esul ing in an a e age inc ease o US$6.23 o GDP g ow h by 2030.
16 See h ps://webapps.ilo.o g/globalca e.
20 ILO Wo king Pape 139
I young and adul women lea e he labou ma ke , hey a e e y likely o expe ience di icul ies
la e in li e. Olde women o en end up li ing in po e y due o he equen sequence o un-
paid, pa - ime, low-paid, in e up ed o in o mal employmen , which esul s in e y poo pen-
sion bene i s. This is why hey may decide o e u n o wo k a e aising child en. They need o
be ained and eskilled mo e han olde male coun e pa s (ILO 2009). Besides he challenge o
obsole e skills, olde women ace age disc imina ion mo e han men in e u ning o he labou
ma ke (UNECE 2019). Olde women lea e he labou ma ke p ema u ely mo e o en han men
due o amily obliga ions, poo heal h caused by ca ing commi men s and menopausal symp-
oms a wo k (Ei e, Mulle and Webe 2024).
Pe sons wi h disabili ies and hei labou ma ke challenges
The inclusion o pe sons wi h disabili ies in he labou ma ke could be signi ican ly inc eased.
Se en ou o en pe sons wi h disabili ies a e inac i e wo ldwide. Fu he mo e, young pe sons
aged 15 o 29 yea s wi h disabili ies a e i e imes mo e likely o be NEET han hei pee s wi h-
ou disabili ies (S oe ska 2022). In 2023 in Eu ope and Cen al Asia, he sha e o pe sons wi h
long-s anding limi a ions a ied om 12 pe cen in Se bia o 37 pe cen in La ia, and ha o
people expe iencing se e e cons ain s was a leas 3 pe cen (Wo ld Bank 2023a).17 The es i-
ma ed weigh ed a e age unemploymen a e o people wi h disabili ies in Eu ope and Cen al
Asia in 2022 was a ound 25.4 pe cen , well abo e he egional a e age o he wo king-age pop-
ula ion o 4.7 pe cen .18
The educa ion le el o pe sons wi h disabili ies is lowe han ha o he es o he wo king-age
popula ion. Women wi h disabili ies ea n less (6 pe cen on a e age) han male coun e pa s (ILO
2025a), indica ing ha he wage gap be ween men and women is also p esen among pe sons
wi h disabili ies. When hey wo k, pe sons wi h disabili ies a e employed in pa - ime jobs mo e
han hei pee s wi hou disabili ies and hei income is he e o e lowe . I is es ima ed o be as
much as 12 pe cen lowe han ha o wo ke s wi hou disabili ies. Pe sons wi h disabili ies a e
o en sel -employed, as his ype o wo k allows o g ea e lexibili y (Ananian and Della e e a
2024). Sel -employmen can also be he esul o disc imina ion in egula employmen .
Se e al ba ie s o hei ec ui men exis , including disc imina ion, employe s’ mispe cep ions
abou he cos o wo k-s a ion accommoda ion and a lack o knowledge o solu ions a ailable
o en e p ises.
Con en ion No. 111 does no include disabili y as a g ound o disc imina ion. Like age, disabili y
can be conside ed as an addi ional g ound o disc imina ion as en isaged by he Con en ion. The
UN Con en ion on he Righ s o Pe sons wi h Disabili ies, adop ed in 2006, includes he p inciple
o non-disc imina ion. In addi ion, A icle 27 ecognizes ha pe sons wi h disabili ies ha e he
igh o wo k on an equal basis wi h o he s. The ILO’s Voca ional Rehabili a ion and Employmen
(Disabled Pe sons) Con en ion (No. 159) and Recommenda ion (No. 168), 1983, a e o he e -
e ence in e na ional legal ins umen s o he employmen igh s o pe sons wi h disabili ies.
Digi aliza ion, AI and elewo k a angemen s ha e he po en ial o acili a e he employmen
o pe sons wi h disabili ies and allow hem o pe o m a b oade ange o asks a inc eased
17 Se e al easons may explain he a iabili y ac oss coun ies, such as di e ences in he pe cep ion o disabili ies, cul u e and awa e-
ness, in addi ion o possible measu emen di e ences ac oss su eys (see OECD 2022b).
18 Calcula ion based on su ey da a. The weigh ed a e age unemploymen a e in 2022 based on 44 coun ies. This measu e migh
conside ably di e om o icial unemploymen a es o people wi h disabili ies due o a ia ions in me hodology, including di e -
ences in de ini ions o disabili y.
21 ILO Wo king Pape 139
p oduc i i y le els. T aining in digi al skills becomes essen ial o he inclusion o wo ke s wi h
disabili ies in he wo ld o wo k, as hey a e no mally con on ed wi h a digi al gap and ha e h ee
imes less access o digi al echnology compa ed o pe sons wi hou disabili ies (ILO 2022). Digi al
aining should be made accessible o and inclusi e o pe sons wi h disabili ies. Publicly unded
associa ions g ouping pe sons wi h disabili ies wi h he same disabili y can also be ex emely
help ul a p o iding disabili y-speci ic AI and digi al aining. Online o ums and discussions can
p o ide aluable in o ma ion on he la es echnological ad ancemen s o speci ic disabili ies and
s a egies o o e come wo k- ela ed challenges. In o he wo ds, pee -exchanges o in o ma ion
on AI applica ions o o e come limi a ions o a g oup o wo ke s and po en ial employees wi h
he same disabili y can play a e y impo an ole in he ac i a ion o pe sons wi h disabili ies.
The p o ision o equipmen and aining o modi y he elewo k en i onmen o wo ke s wi h
physical disabili ies should be planned in consul a ion wi h he employees and hei ep esen -
a i es (WHO and ILO 2021). Despi e he oppo uni ies ha elewo k o e s o pe sons wi h dis-
abili ies, i is impo an o highligh ha emo e (online) wo k canno always be conside ed as
he bes solu ion, and ha i may in ol e poo wo king condi ions wi h isola ion, long wo king
hou s and low and i egula pay (Fundación ONCE and ILO 2021).
Si ua ion o young wo ke s
Young wo ke s a e hose people aged 15 o 24 yea s. Thei numbe is sh inking in he egion
o e all. Cen al Asian coun ies eco d he la ges sha e o you h, wi h e ili y a es a o abo e
eplacemen le el (UNECE and UNFPA 2023).
Long- e m social and economic de elopmen equi es a well-educa ed you h, especially in an
e a o apid echnological p og ess. E en a e comple ing hei s udies, young people o en
expe ience a lack o decen wo k oppo uni ies. The le el o NEET you h in 2024 in Eu ope and
Cen al Asia was 13 pe cen (see igu e 9). Despi e i s decline since 2015, his a e emains abo e
he a ge o 9 pe cen se by he Eu opean Pilla o he Social Righ s Ac ion Plan (Eu opean
Commission 2021; ILO 2024 ). None heless, Eas e n, No he n, Sou he n and Wes e n Eu ope
ha e all educed NEET le els since 2015 (ILO 2025b).
28 ILO Wo king Pape 139
o olde wo ke s. This is why i is p e e able o alk abou “ unc ional age” a he han “ch onolog-
ical age” o desc ibe someone’s abili y o wo k. Olde wo ke s a e mo e o en employed in jobs
o low quali y han younge pee s, wi h highe a es o wo king po e y, low pay and less social
p o ec ion co e age and ep esen a ion han o he coho s. S e eo ypes and p ejudice agains
olde wo ke s a e s ill widesp ead. Olde wo ke s end o ha e poo digi al skills, and, a p es-
en , speci ic, a ge ed skills policies a e absen . Despi e he challenges ha olde wo ke s ace
in he labou ma ke , he sh inking and ageing popula ion ha Eu ope and Cen al Asia a e con-
on ed wi h calls o measu es aimed a e aining hose who wish o wo k and employing hose
who a e unemployed o inac i e.
Women: Women pa icipa e in he labou ma ke less han men, and hey ea n less han male
coun e pa s. They con inue o bea he p ima y esponsibili y o ca egi ing, o en engaging
in unpaid ca e wo k, which limi s hei employmen oppo uni ies. In es ing in ca e se ices,
especially childca e se ices, pa en al and childca e lea e, and closing he wage gap be ween
men and women a e undamen al o enhance women’s pa icipa ion in he labou ma ke . Olde
women a e especially ulne able o po e y due o a his o y o in o mal, low-paid o unpaid wo k.
Fu he mo e, disc imina ion and ou da ed skills emain signi ican ba ie s o he employmen
o women, pa icula ly hose who a e olde .
Pe sons wi h disabili ies: Pe sons wi h disabili ies end o ha e lowe educa ion le els han he
gene al wo king-age popula ion and ha e h ee imes less access o digi al echnology. T aining
in digi al skills becomes essen ial o he inclusion o wo ke s wi h disabili ies in he wo ld o
wo k. Pe sons wi h disabili ies a e employed in pa - ime jobs mo e han hei pee s wi hou dis-
abili ies, and hei income is he e o e lowe . Key ba ie s o hei employmen include disc im-
ina ion, employe mispe cep ions abou he cos s o wo kplace accommoda ions and a lack o
awa eness o a ailable suppo solu ions o en e p ises. Add essing hese challenges h ough
inclusi e policies and wo kplace adjus men s is c ucial o imp o ing employmen oppo uni ies
o pe sons wi h disabili ies.
You h: Cen al Asian coun ies ha e he la ges sha e o young people, wi h e ili y a es a o
abo e eplacemen le el. Despi e e o s o educe you h NEET a es ac oss Eu ope and Cen al
Asia, p og ess emains insu icien , and you h unemploymen emains high. Young wo ke s a e
adap able, eage o acqui e new skills and b ing esh ideas o he wo k o ce. Howe e , hey a e
also mo e ulne able o wo k- ela ed inju ies. Thei s ong digi al skills gi e hem a compe i i e
edge o e olde wo ke s. P omo ing in e gene a ional solida i y h ough join ac i i ies and men-
o ship p og ammes can help o b idge skill gaps, wi h olde wo ke s ans e ing expe ience
while bene i ing om younge wo ke s’ echnological expe ise.
Mig an s and e ugees: Eu ope and Cen al Asia ha e expe ienced signi ican e ugee in lows, pa -
icula ly om A ghanis an, he Sy ian A ab Republic and Uk aine. Ba ie s o hei labou ma ke
in eg a ion include skill misma ches, he lack o ecogni ion o p io lea ning, limi ed access o
wo k pe mi s and in o mal employmen . Mig a ion pa e ns a y ac oss he egion: No he n,
Sou he n and Wes e n Eu ope ha e he highes sha es o mig an wo ke s, while Eas e n Eu ope
aces signi ican ou lows, especially om he Wes e n Balkans and Uk aine o EU Membe S a es.
Skilled mig a ion can d i e inno a ion and economic dynamism in ecei ing coun ies bu may also
lead o b ain d ain in coun ies o o igin. Mig an s play a i al ole in sec o s such as ag icul u e,
ca e and cons uc ion – pa icula ly in ageing socie ies aced wi h labou sho ages. Mig a ion
also con ibu es o emi ances, skills de elopmen and lowe you h unemploymen in coun ies
o o igin while acili a ing skills ans e when mig an s e u n wi h aluable expe ience and a e
p o ided wi h an enabling en i onmen o do so. Bila e al labou mig a ion ag eemen s a e an
impo an coope a ion ool o add ess skills’ needs ac i ely used in he egion.

29 ILO Wo king Pape 139
Ensu ing economic esilience in he ace o demog aphic change equi es a mul i ace ed policy e-
sponse. The 2013 In e na ional Labou Con e ence esolu ion conce ning employmen and so-
cial p o ec ion in he new demog aphic con ex (ILO 2013) o e s aluable guidance o policy
o mula ion. In pa icula , i p esc ibes “a comp ehensi e mul idimensional and in eg a ed pol-
icy mix ha ecognizes he in e dependency be ween demog aphic shi s, employmen , labou
mig a ion, social p o ec ion and economic de elopmen .”
Key policy a eas ou lined in he esolu ion – many o which ha e been discussed in his pape :
educa ion, aining and li elong lea ning; comba ing disc imina ion; p omo ing he inclusion o
ulne able and unde - ep esen ed g oups in he labou ma ke ; and well-managed mig a ion
policies. Policies o inc ease p oduc i i y a e equally desc ibed, including amewo ks o wo k
p ac ices conduci e o imp o emen s in p oduc i i y and policies ha suppo inno a ion.
These key policy a eas and he summa y in hese conclusions can guide and os e a ui ul and
cons uc i e social dialogue on he issues aised in his pape . As ema ked in he esolu ion (ILO
2013), when managed e ec i ely, “demog aphic ansi ions no only become manageable and
sus ainable bu can be u ned in o oppo uni ies”.
30 ILO Wo king Pape 139
Appendix. Me hodology unde lying he long- e m
p ojec ions o labou o ce pa icipa ion a es
Labou o ce pa icipa ion a es (LFPRs) ha e s ongly pe sis en ends, meaning ha a ce ain
change o e a ce ain pe iod is likely ollowed by a simila change o e he nex pe iod. This cha -
ac e is ic gi es a easonable s a is ical basis o longe - e m LFPR p ojec ions. In addi ion, ex e -
nal ac o s can play an impo an ole; he decision o pa icipa e in he labou o ce is based on
conside a ions such as mac oeconomic condi ions, social secu i y sys ems and cul u al de e -
minan s. Cul u al de e minan s, o example, is a e y impo an ac o in d i ing ends in gen-
de gaps. While long- e m p ojec ions o mac oeconomic ac o s, such as GDP pe capi a and
he composi ion o GDP, a e a ailable, exis ing social secu i y sys ems a e oo di e se and com-
plex o quan i y hem consis en ly o use in an econome ic se up o all coun ies in Eu ope
and Cen al Asia.
The baseline labou o ce da a a e he ILO modelled es ima es (No embe 2024) o LFPRs by sex
and age (see ILO 2025c). The his o ical es ima es a e a ailable as o 1991. The LFPR is es ima ed
o men and women o ou age g oups: you h (15 o 24 yea s), p ime age (25 o 54 yea s), old-
e (55 o 64 yea s) and 65 yea s and abo e. The 2024 e ision o he Wo ld Popula ion P ospec s
by he Uni ed Na ions Depa men o Economic and Social A ai s Popula ion Di ision se es as
he benchma k popula ion da a and p ojec ions. The da abase p o ides es ima es and p ojec-
ions o popula ion un il 2100 by sex and i e-yea age g oup, which a e agg ega ed o ma ch
he age g oups o he labou o ce es ima es. The his o ical da a o GDP pe capi a comes om
he Wo ld Bank Wo ld De elopmen Indica o s, and he sha e o go e nmen consump ion in
GDP om he UN es ima es o na ional accoun s. The Oc obe 2024 p ojec ions o GDP g ow h
om he In e na ional Mone a y Fund a e used o cons uc p ojec ions o GDP (and ela ed-
ly GDP pe capi a) up o 2029. The Economis In elligence Uni p o ides long- e m p ojec ions
(un il 2050) o GDP g ow h and he sha e o go e nmen consump ion o a sizeable numbe o
coun ies. Fo o he coun ies, p ojec ions o GDP pe capi a a e made using his o ical g ow h
a es and an es ima ed con e gence mechanism. The go e nmen spending sha e is p ojec ed
using an econome ic app oach o es ima e long- e m changes.
The baseline app oach o conduc ing long- e m p ojec ions is by end ex apola ion, aking mac-
oeconomic p ojec ions in o accoun . This means ha he u u e impac o all unobse ed and
unquan i ied de e minan s on LFPR ends is assumed o be he same as i has been in he ecen
pas . Fo example, he p ojec ion does no make any assump ions abou changes in e i emen
age. As such, he long- e m p ojec ion p esen s only one o a mul i ude (in ac in ini e) possible
scena ios ha could ma e ialize and is he eby subjec o subs an ial unce ain y.
The gene al eg ession app oach is o eg ess he six-yea change in he ans o med a ge
a iable on some explana o y a iables using a panel model. Using he six-yea change educes
he a iance o he dependen a iable by ocusing on d i e s o medium- e m changes, which
is also in line wi h he objec i es o long- e m p ojec ions.22 The explana o y a iables – whose
coe icien s ha e been es ima ed in a panel – should explain changes in he end. Mul iple spec-
i ica ions a e easible and es ima ed. Those encompass using coun y- ixed e ec s o no , us-
ing a lagged dependen a iable, es ima ing a global o income g ouping panel, and di e en
22 While a longe lag ho izon could be used, his would educe he sample size o eg ession analysis, as da a a e only a ailable as o
1991.
31 ILO Wo king Pape 139
mac oeconomic explana o y a iables. Model a e aging ac oss di e en speci ica ions has been
shown o educe he a iance o he inal p edic ion. This pape ollows he app oach o c oss- al-
ida ion and so-called Jackkni e model a e aging as desc ibed in Gomis e al. (2022). I minimizes
he sum o squa ed e o s o he lea e-one-ou p edic ion e o s ac oss he a ious speci ica-
ions h ough app op ia e weigh ing.
This ex apola ion is made wi hin ce ain bounda ies. Besides he ob ious bounda y ha he
LFPR needs o lie be ween 0 and 100, he app oach es ablishes maximum allowed changes wi h
espec o he las obse ed alue, based on pas obse ed changes in da a.23 The LFPR is p o-
jec ed sepa a ely o men and women, and o ou dis inc age g oups: 15 o 24 yea s, 25 o
54 yea s, 55 o 64 yea s and 65 yea s and o e . Each o hese demog aphic g oups has dis inc
ea u es and ends.
23 The bounda ies a e de e mined using coun y-speci ic and global s a is ics o he se ies.
32 ILO Wo king Pape 139
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