Tan ı e di Yaşa , Nebaha
Resea ch Repo
F om on line o cen al egional node: Tu key's
ecalib a ion o i s egional s a egy in I aq
SWP Commen , No. 43/2025
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
S i ung Wissenscha und Poli ik (SWP), Ge man Ins i u e o In e na ional and Secu i y A ai s,
Be lin
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Tan ı e di Yaşa , Nebaha (2025) : F om on line o cen al egional node:
Tu key's ecalib a ion o i s egional s a egy in I aq, SWP Commen , No. 43/2025, S i ung
Wissenscha und Poli ik (SWP), Be lin,
h ps://doi.o g/10.18449/2025C43
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NO.
43
OCTOBER 2025
In oduc ion
F om F on line o Cen al Regional Node:
Tu key’s Recalib a ion o i s Regional
S a egy in I aq
Nebaha Tan ı e di Yaşa
Once iewed by Anka a p ima ily as a agmen ed secu i y on ie , I aq now si s
a he cen e o i s egional s a egy. This ecalib a ion is shaped by shi ing egional
dynamics in he a e ma h o 7 Oc obe : he weakening o I an’s in luence ac oss
mul iple on s, he Gul s a es’ ising economic and diploma ic weigh , and he sea ch
o new s abilising axes in he Middle Eas . Tu key’s enewed engagemen is no jus
abou coun e ing he Ku dis an Wo ke s Pa y (PKK) – i signals b oade egional
aspi a ions ha combines secu i y coope a ion wi h Baghdad and E bil, a agile
domes ic peace p ocess in Tu key, and a s a egic push o embed I aq wi hin Tu key–
Gul ade and key egional ene gy in as uc u es, including oil pipelines, p ospec i e
gas expo s, and elec ici y in e connec ions. A he hea o his shi is a geoeco-
nomic logic: by in es ing in sha ed in as uc u e and os e ing mu ual in e depend-
encies, Anka a seeks o consolida e i s egional ole. Fo Eu ope, he ou come will
e e be a e beyond I aq by eshaping connec i i y, ene gy access, and he s abili y
o i s sou h-eas e n neighbou s.
A e decades o u bulence, Anka a and
Baghdad ha e emba ked on a s a egic haw,
ancho ed in high-le el isi s and a lu y o
ag eemen s. P esiden Recep Tayyip E do-
ğan’s Ap il 2024 isi o Baghdad (his i s
in 13 yea s) p oduced 26 ag eemen s; P ime
Minis e Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani’s e-
cip ocal ip o Anka a in May 2025 added
11 mo e. Tu kish o icials now desc ibe I aq
as a s a egic pa ne and a cen al ac o in
egional s abilisa ion, e lec ing a new na -
a i e aming I aq as essen ial o egional
secu i y, ade, ans egional connec i i y,
and ene gy in eg a ion. This momen um
signals Anka a’s shi owa ds a mo e s uc-
u ed, mul idimensional pa ne ship wi h
I aq, encompassing he ongoing lagship
De elopmen Road P ojec ha seeks o con-
nec he Pe sian Gul o Tu key, enewed
ene gy coope a ion on he Ki kuk–Ceyhan
pipeline, expanded ade, and enhanced
secu i y coo dina ion.
Tu key’s ecalib a ion owa ds Baghdad
is un olding amid a se ies o p o ound
egional uphea als including he Is ael–
Gaza wa , he I an–Is ael escala ion, and
SWP Commen 43
Oc obe 2025
2
he all o he Assad egime, which a e e-
shaping powe dynamics ac oss he Middle
Eas . Anka a sees an u gen need o secu e
I aq’s coope a ion o con ain h ea s om
he PKK and o ecalib a e ela ions wi h
I anian-backed Popula Mobiliza ion Fo ces
(PMF), as conce ns g own ha he coun y
could become he nex a ena o con on a-
ion be ween Is ael and I an.
Beyond a secu i y lens, Anka a’s enewed
engagemen wi h Baghdad coincides wi h
a b oade app ochemen wi h Gul s a es,
pa icula ly Saudi A abia and he Uni ed
A ab Emi a es (UAE). As such, Anka a em-
beds I aq wi hin eme ging ad hoc egional
amewo ks ha link ade, connec i i y,
and egional s abilisa ion. This alignmen
expands Tu key’s s a egic in luence while
also dilu ing I an’s cen ali y in shaping
I aq’s egional a ilia ions.
Anka a’s ecalib a ed app oach on I aq
also e lec s i s b oade o eign policy shi
ollowing he 2023 elec ions, which ex ended
he manda e o he Jus ice and De elopmen
Pa y (AKP) go e nmen un il 2028. A i s
co e is an economy-cen ed o ien a ion o
o eign policy, a ocus on egional owne -
ship, di e si ica ion o pa ne ships wi h
egional ac o s and he pu sui o ene gy,
ade, and logis ics/connec i i y p ojec s.
All o hese ac o s coalesce in I aq. Fa
om an isola ed adjus men , i is pa o a
wide geopoli ical eo ien a ion in which
I aq is posi ioned as bo h a secu i y pa ne
and a geoeconomic node linking he Gul ,
he Le an , and Ana olia.
Re- hinking Secu i y beyond
Ze o-Sum Calcula ions
Fo much o he pos –Cold Wa pe iod,
Anka a iewed I aq p ima ily h ough a
h ea -cen ic lens, shaped abo e all by he
PKK’s sanc ua y in he Qandil Moun ains
and he au onomy aspi a ions o I aqi
Ku ds – de elopmen s ea ed o embolden
sepa a ism wi hin Tu key. The 2003 Uni ed
S a es (US) in asion accen ua ed Anka a’s
pe cep ion o I aq as an e en mo e uns able
and high- h ea neighbou . Tu key ound
i sel s a egically es anged om bo h i s
Wes e n allies, pa icula ly he US, and
new poli ical ac o s eme ging in Baghdad,
while I an’s ascendancy u he diminished
Anka a’s oo p in in I aq.
S a egic es angemen wi h Washing on
se in immedia ely wi h Tu key’s e usal o
open a no he n on o US o ces in Ma ch
2003. The inciden s such as he Ap il 2003
seizu e o a Tu kish Special Fo ces uck and
he July 2003 de en ion o Tu kish pe son-
nel in Sulaymaniyah, commonly known as
he “Hood Inciden ” compounded he si ua-
ion. The PKK’s e u n o mili an ac i i ies
in 2004 ha dened Anka a’s h ea pe cep-
ions, while esis ance om bo h Shi’a A abs
and Ku ds o any Tu kish mili a y ole –
oo ed in ea s o e i ed O oman ambi ions
– kep Tu key sidelined om I aq’s pos -
wa econs uc ion and poli ical ansi ion.
I an’s g owing in luence a e 2003
cemen ed his secu i y- i s iew. The ex-
pansion o he PMF in o con es ed a eas
such as Tal A a and Sinja du ing he igh
agains he Islamic S a e (IS) b ough I anian
in luence close o Tu key’s bo de s, o e -
lapping wi h PKK s ongholds and c ea ing
wha Anka a pe cei ed as a dual secu i y
h ea . Con on ed wi h his nexus o PKK,
Shi’a mili ias, and I an, since 2016 Tu key
has inc easingly elied on unila e al mili a y
ope a ions, he es ablishmen o o wa d-
ope a ing bases in no he n I aq, and deep-
ened engagemen wi h he Ku dis an Region-
al Go e nmen (KRG).
Today, Anka a is seeking o o e come
i s es angemen in I aq by eb anding i s
mili a y ac i i ies wi hin he language o
join secu i y a angemen s a he han
unila e al p e oga i es. Wi h his, Anka a
hopes o gain legi imacy o i s mili a y
p esence in I aq and add ess Baghdad’s so -
e eign y sensi i i ies, e en hough Tu key’s
c oss-bo de ope a ions and he con es ed
ecep ion o i s bases on I aqi soil con inue
o complica e ma e s. In 2024, Anka a and
Baghdad ag eed o es ablish a Join Secu i y
Coo dina ion Cen e in Baghdad and con-
e he long-con es ed Tu kish base in
Bashiqa in o a Join T aining and Coope a-
ion Cen e unde I aqi command. Tu kish
SWP Commen 43
Oc obe 2025
3
o icials p esen his shi no as a wi h-
d awal bu as a s a egic eposi ioning
owa ds co-managed secu i y by main ain-
ing ope a ional p esence while g an ing
Baghdad o mal au ho i y.
This s a egy also aims o secu e Bagh-
dad’s backing o i s campaign agains he
PKK. I aq’s 2024 announcemen o ban he
PKK, Bagdad’s silence o e Tu kish mili a y
ope a ions in 2024 and 2025, and P ime
Minis e al-Sudani’s ema k on hei com-
mi men o p e en ing I aqi e i o y om
being used by non-s a e ac o s poin o a
agile and unp eceden ed alignmen . The
PKK’s May 2025 decla a ion o disa mamen
and e en ual dissolu ion, and he ini ia ion
o a disa mamen p ocess in ol ing Tu kish
in elligence and I aqi media o s, u he
ein o ced his ounda ion.
A he same ime, Anka a seeks a ole
in I aq’s eme ging secu i y a chi ec u e by
o e ing mili a y aining, a ms sales, and
ins i u ionalised coope a ion. Since 2024,
egula wo king-le el exchanges ha e co -
e ed PKK, IS, bo de managemen , mig a-
ion, and c iminal ex adi ion. Tu kish
Na ional In elligence O ganiza ion chie
İb ahim Kalın me I aqi P ime Minis e
Sudani in July 2025 o enhance in elligence-
sha ing and bo de s abili y. B eaking yea s
o deadlock o e a ms deals, he wo coun-
ies also signed a de ence indus y coope a-
ion pac in May 2025 which includes he
ans e o Tu kish de ence echnology. Fol-
lowing his, he s a e-owned, Mili a y Fac-
o y and Shipya d Managemen Inc. (ASFAT),
inked a deal o a ille y ammuni ion p o-
duc ion in I aq. Tu key now o e s I aq mili-
a y aining, de ence p oduc s, in elligence
sha ing, join ope a ional planning, and
coo dina ed esponses o sha ed h ea s.
Balancing I an and Le e aging
Geopoli ical Shi s
Anka a’s ecalib a ion owa ds I aq also
aims a posi ioning Baghdad as a s a egic
ulc um in Tu key’s b oade e o o coun-
e balance I an. A e 2003, I an’s domi-
nance in Baghdad con ined Tu key’s in lu-
ence o na ow cons i uencies, namely
Tu kmen communi ies, selec Sunni ibal
ne wo ks, and he KRG. This asymme y
ein o ced he secu i y on ie pa adigm,
in which I aq was ea ed less as a pa ne
and mo e as an a ea o con es ed e ain
o be con ained o bypassed.
Map
SWP Commen 43
Oc obe 2025
4
Anka a has long sough o o e come
his es angemen wi h Baghdad. A no able
opening came a e he KRG’s Sep embe
2017 independence e e endum, when An-
ka a aligned wi h Baghdad agains Ku dish
secession and suppo ed he cen al go e n-
men ’s e aking o Ki kuk om Ku dish
o ces. This ma ked he beginning o Tu -
key’s g adual e-engagemen wi h ede al
au ho i ies in Baghdad. The u gency g ew
wi h he p ospec o US oops shi ing
om comba o ad iso y oles as o 2021,
p omp ed by domes ic p essu e in I aq o a
ull US wi hd awal a e he Janua y 2020
killings o I anian gene al Qassem Soleimani
and he Depu y Head o he PMF, Abu Mahdi
al-Muhandis. Fo Anka a, he isk was ha
I an would ill a acuum, whe eas he op-
po uni y was o ins i u ionalize secu i y,
ade, and connec i i y wi h Baghdad be o e
ha happened. Agains his backd op,
Anka a now sees s a egic openings c ea ed
by he all o Sy ia’s Assad egime, I an’s
de ea in he June wa agains Is ael, he
losses o I an’s axis o esis ance, and
Is ael’s con inued p essu e on Hezbollah.
Teh an’s weakening egional le e age
pe cei ed as an oppo uni y o Tu key o
expand i s in luence h ough new align-
men s and ins i u ional oo holds.
Le e aging hese shi s, Anka a seeks o
in eg a e I aq in o i s wide egional ambi-
ions by linking secu i y coope a ion o
in as uc u e de elopmen and posi ioning
Baghdad as bo h a pa ne in balancing
Teh an and a hub o ene gy, ade, and
s abilisa ion. One ins umen is he Tu -
key–I aq–Sy ia–Jo dan–Lebanon secu-
i y o ma , launched in 2025 o manage IS
in he egion. A he Ma ch 2025 Amman
mee ing, Tu key, Sy ia, and Jo dan ag eed
o es ablish a Join Ope a ions Cen e o
coo dina e coun e e o ism and manage-
men o p isons holding IS igh e s and
camps such as Al Hol and Roj ha house
IS-a ilia ed women and amilies, many
o whom emain unde he gua d o he
US-allied Sy ian Democ a ic Fo ces (SDF).
Tu kish o icials iew he SDF as he PKK’s
Sy ian o shoo and hope ha his egional
secu i y o ma can help ans e hese
camps o he new Sy ian go e nmen he e-
by se e ing logis ical links be ween he PKK
and SDF – pa icula ly in Sinja , a i al
co ido be ween I aq and Sy ia.
The same co ido was once I an’s land
b idge connec ing i s egional ne wo ks o
non-s a e allies and p oxies in I aq, Sy ia,
and Lebanon un il he all o Assad. I s ill
holds geopoli ical impo ance as e iden in
June 2025 when jus one day a e he ou -
b eak o he Is ael–I an wa , Sy ia deployed
3,000 oops o he I aqi bo de o de e
in il a ion by p o-I an I aqi mili ias. In his
sense, Anka a aims o le e age his ame-
wo k o align I aq and Jo dan – bo h wa y
o he unce ain Sy ian ansi ion – behind
a coo dina ed secu i y agenda. This in-
cludes igh ening bo de con ol, coun e -
ing ex emis g oups such as IS, and join ly
managing aspec s o he secu i y acuum
le by Russia and I an in Sy ia.
The De elopmen Road P ojec
as a S a egic Pi o in Regional
Connec i i y
S ill, Tu key’s new app oach o I aq is no
only d i en by i s in ensi ied i al y wi h
I an. I is also a esponse o Anka a’s pe -
cei ed ma ginalisa ion by he US-led India–
Middle Eas –Eu ope Economic Co ido
(IMEC). Anka a p omo es he I aq-based
De elopmen Road P ojec as an al e na i e
o IMEC, aiming o secu e i s geoeconomic
ele ance, while simul aneously coun e -
balancing I an’s in luence and deepening
ies wi h Gul pa ne s.
Linking Bas a o Tu key, his mega logis-
ics p ojec posi ions I aq as a linchpin in
Anka a’s eas –wes connec i i y ision,
complemen ing he Middle Co ido ha
uns h ough Cen al Asia and Tu key. The
Al Faw G and Po is en isaged as a egional
logis ics hub, ancho ing a 1,200-kilome e
co ido om Bas a o he Tu kish bo de .
Tu key is simul aneously upg ading domes-
ic in as uc u e and c oss-bo de logis ics,
such as in Habu –Faysh Khabu and O a-
köy, o ensu e seamless in eg a ion wi h
Eu opean Union (EU) cus oms zones.
SWP Commen 43
Oc obe 2025
5
The ini ia i e ha ein o ces Tu key’s
geopoli ical ole as a Eu opean b idge also
embodies Anka a’s b oade in e connec i i y
s a egy, which seeks o build ad hoc egional
alignmen s along he Tu key–I aq–UAE–
Qa a axis. In Ap il 2024, Tu key and I aq
signed a memo andum o unde s anding
wi h Qa a and he UAE, ollowed by a sum-
mi in Tu key in Augus o discuss inanc-
ing, cons uc ion, and go e nance. Facing
inancial cons ain s, Anka a elies on Gul
in es men o sha e cos s, sp ead poli ical
isk, and secu e egional buy-in. Such back-
ing, especially om he UAE and Qa a ,
no only unds I aqi in as uc u e bu also
g an s poli ical legi imacy, embeds I aq
wi hin wide economic amewo ks, while
helps Tu key o ou manoeu e I an’s eas –
wes co ido s ha also bypass Tu key.
This geoeconomic u n ma ks a decisi e
shi om Anka a’s ea lie ideology-d i en
egional poli ics owa ds a p agma ic ocus
on in as uc u e, ade ou es, and egional
economic in eg a ion. By embedding I aq
and i s Gul pa ne s in sha ed in as uc-
u e, Anka a aims o c ea e mu ual depend-
encies ha lock hem in o a Tu key-cen ic
economic zone. To his end, Anka a is
mobilizing i s logis ics capaci y and con-
s uc ion sec o , aming he p ojec as cos -
e ec i e, as e , and a egionally owned,
s eng hening i s ole in shaping he u u e
o Middle Eas e n connec i i y.
Economic S a ec a o
S a egic In eg a ion
Such an economy-cen ed o eign policy is
unsu p isingly unde sco ed by e o s o
expand ade and in es men , as well as
o achie e deepe ma ke in eg a ion wi h
I aq. Bila e al ag eemen s signed in 2024
included p o isions o imp o e cus oms
p ocedu es and educe ade ic ions, while
also add essing land anspo bo lenecks
h ough he p oposed O aköy bo de c oss-
ing no h o Mosul, which was in ended o
complemen he conges ed Habu –Zakho
ou e. Tu kish goods anging om ood
p oduc s o household appliances al eady
domina e signi ican segmen s o he I aqi
ma ke , bene i ing om compe i i e p ic-
ing and logis ical p oximi y.
Beyond ansi in as uc u e, Anka a’s
ision o a “d y canal” co ido encom-
passes he de elopmen o logis ics hubs
and indus ial zones along he ou e, whe e
Tu kish i ms a e well posi ioned o lead.
This app oach aims o embed Tu kish
indus y mo e deeply in I aq’s econs uc-
ion and economic ans o ma ion. Tu kish
companies ha e al eady in es ed an es i-
ma ed $35 billion, wi h bila e al ade su -
passing $15 billion in 2024. In ea ly 2025,
he wo go e nmen s began d a ing a oad-
map o u he expand ade olumes and
mu ual in es men . C ucially, Anka a also
seeks o ex end i s economic each beyond
I aq’s Sunni egions in o he Shi’a sou h
h ough inclusi e in es men o e s.
Ye economic in eg a ion is no pu sued
solely as coope a ion: I is also a ool o
le e age. Tu key has combined incen i es,
such as in as uc u e p omises o Baghdad
and E bil, wi h puni i e measu es. This is
mos isible in i s 2023 closu e o ai space
o Sulaymaniyah. Anka a jus i ied his s ep
by accusing he Pa io ic Union o Ku dis an
(PUK) o close ies wi h he PKK. The mo e
pa icula ly aims o pu economic p essu e
on he PUK, which is he uling pa y in
he sou he n pa o I aqi Ku dis an. In his
sense, Anka a’s economic s a ec a ope -
a es on wo acks: ewa ding alignmen
wi h p ojec s and access, while cons aining
i als h ough economic p essu e.
Ene gy Diplomacy as
Regional Le e age
Ha ing placed I aq a he cen e o i s con-
nec i i y s a egy, Anka a is ex ending he
same logic o ene gy, whe e pipelines and
ansi ou es se e as bo h economic asse s
and ins umen s o geopoli ical in luence.
I aq’s oil and gas ese es, in eg a ed in o
expanded in as uc u e, a e cen al o
Tu key’s ambi ion o becoming a egional
ene gy hub. This would enhance i s le e -
age, di e si y supply ou es, and posi ion
SWP Commen 43
Oc obe 2025
6
he coun y as a key playe in Eu ope’s
ene gy secu i y. To his end, Anka a has
sough o s eng hen i s exis ing ne wo k –
including he T ans-Ana olian Na u al
Gas Pipeline (TANAP), Tu kS eam, and he
Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan line – o connec
Middle Eas e n and Caspian esou ces wi h
Eu opean ma ke s while educing ene gy
dependence on Russia and I an.
Wi hin his con ex , he esump ion o oil
lows h ough he Ki kuk–Ceyhan pipeline
has become a cen al p io i y. The pipeline
has been idle since Ma ch 2023, ollowing
an in e na ional a bi a ion uling b ough
by I aq and esul ing in a $1.5 billion pen-
al y o unau ho ised Ku dish oil expo s
be ween 2014 and 2018. In esponse, Anka a
cancelled he 50-yea -old pipeline ag ee-
men in July 2025 and signalled i s eadi-
ness o nego ia e a new amewo k – one
ha ecognizes Baghdad’s au ho i y o e
expo s, es ablishes a e enue-sha ing
mechanism, and ensu es supply s abili y.
In Sep embe 2025, Baghdad and he KRG
eached a deal o esume pipeline expo s
o Tu key, ma king a en a i e s ep owa ds
es o ing lows. While Tu key con inues
o appeal he a bi a ion uling, i has ex-
p essed a willingness o esume lows unde
a es uc u ed a angemen ha in eg a es
he pipeline in o a b oade egional in a-
s uc u e ision.
Building on his momen um, Anka a
submi ed a comp ehensi e d a ag ee-
men o Baghdad o expand bila e al ene gy
coope a ion. The p oposal goes beyond oil
o include na u al gas, pe ochemicals, and
elec ici y, e lec ing he widening scope o
Anka a’s ene gy diplomacy. C ucially, i is
designed o complemen he De elopmen
Road p ojec by aligning ene gy ansi
in as uc u e wi h he connec i i y co -
ido . Tu kish Ene gy Minis e Alpa slan
Bay ak a no ed ha he plan also o esees
ex ending he pipeline o I aq’s sou he n
oil ields, he eby inc easing capaci y and
es ablishing di ec linkages be ween sou h-
e n I aq and Tu kish po s. Fo Anka a,
his would no only di e si y I aq’s expo
ou es, bu also embed i mo e deeply wi h-
in Tu key’s egional ene gy ne wo k – en-
hancing bo h Anka a’s hub ambi ions and
i s geoeconomic in luence a a momen o
heigh ened egional ins abili y s e ching
om he S ai o Ho muz h ough Red Sea.
Tu key’s I aq Gamble:
Be ween Oppo uni y and Risk
No wi hs anding he oppo uni ies in-
ol ed, i is unce ain i Tu key’s calcula ed
gamble owa ds I aq would yield he desi ed
ou comes. The gamble lies in Anka a’s
assump ion ha embedding i sel h ough
join secu i y a angemen s, in as uc u e
p ojec s, and ene gy coope a ion would
no only deli e long- e m bila e al gains,
bu also secu e i s place in he eme ging
egional o de . Ye his wage is being made
agains a backd op o I aq’s poli ical agil-
i y, ola ile secu i y en i onmen , and
en enched egional i al ies – ac o s ha
could easily de ail Anka a’s ambi ions. S ill,
i is a calcula ed gamble because Anka a
has hedged i s be . By combining mili a y
coope a ion wi h economic en anglemen ,
d awing in Gul pa ne s o sha e cos s, and
eaching ou o se e al I aqi ac o s – in-
cluding po en ial spoile s like he PMF – o
become s akeholde s, Tu key seeks o educe
he isk o ou igh ailu e e en amid I aq’s
poli ical agili y and en enched i al ies.
Secu i y ep esen s a second unce ain y.
Planned ini ia i es, such as la ge sec ions
o he De elopmen Road co ido , ene gy
in as uc u e, logis ic hubs, and indus ial
zones cu h ough a eas sca ed by con lic
whe e s abili y emains agile. The PMF in
sou he n and no he n I aq could obs uc
p og ess i Teh an iews he p ojec as unde -
mining i s in luence. Likewise, PKK ac i i y in
Sinja and Makhmou con inues o h ea en
cons uc ion and long- e m secu i y in no h-
e n I aq. Tu key’s con inued eliance on
unila e al mili a y ope a ions – pa icula ly
ai s ikes o c oss-bo de incu sions – isks
igge ing backlash om I aqi poli ical ac o s,
Shi’a mili ias, and segmen s o he public
sensi i e o so e eign y iola ions, which
has he po en ial o de ail he b oade ap-
p ochemen and unde mine join ini ia i es.
SWP Commen 43
Oc obe 2025
7
Ye , ecen de elopmen s il he balance
somewha in Anka a’s a ou . The PKK’s
announced dissolu ion and Tu key–I aq
app ochemen c ea e a mo e a ou able
backd op. A he same ime, he PMF, which
con ols much o I aq’s in as uc u e and
bo de s, may inc easingly calcula e ha he
p ojec o e s hem economic gain h ough
e enues, jobs, and wide ac i i y, po en ially
shi ing hei ole om spoile o s akeholde .
The gamble is equally isible in Anka a’s
a emp o le e age I aq as a coun e weigh
o I an. Wi h Teh an weakened in he e-
gion, Tu key sees g ea e oom o manoeu-
e. Ye I an’s en enched ne wo ks h ough
he PMF, cle ical au ho i ies, and poli ical
pa onage emain o midable. Any o e
Tu kish a emp o sideline Teh an isks
des abilizing Sudan’s balancing ac and ig-
ge ing backlash om I an’s p oxies. Fo
Anka a, he gamble he e is no elimina ing
I anian in luence ou igh bu ensu ing
ha Tu key’s ole is en enched enough o
wi hs and u u e I anian pushback.
Mega-p ojec s like he De elopmen Road
P ojec illus a e bo h he p omise and pe il
o Tu key’s s a egy. While, such p ojec s
o e he po en ial o eshape egional con-
nec i i y, embed economic in e depend-
ence, and ele a e Anka a’s s a egic ole,
hey expose Tu key o ising inancial cos s,
poli ical ola ili y in I aq, and esis ance
om i al ac o s such as I an o domes ic
spoile s like he PKK. I comple ed, he
Bas a–Tu key co ido would eposi ion
I aq as a hub o egional connec i i y, ie
Gul capi al o a Tu key–Baghdad axis, and
secu e Anka a a decisi e ole in eas –wes
ade. Bu ising cos s – such as he De el-
opmen Road P ojec al eady es ima ing o
cos beyond he ini ial $17 billion es ima e –
and I aq’s agmen ed poli ics unde sco e
he agili y o hese ambi ions.
In sum, Tu key’s I aq gamble is pa o a
wide egional ajec o y in which in which
he o de o poli ical powe is inc easingly
buil h ough ad hoc coali ions, connec i i y
p ojec s, and in es men -d i en in e de-
pendence. I is less o a ze o-sum be and
mo e o a laye ed s a egy designed o limi
losses and gua an ee some e u n. Whe he
i yields a b eak h ough o se les in o an-
o he cycle o modes bu endu ing gains
will depend as much on I aq’s poli ical
esilience as on shi ing egional i al ies.
Why This Shi is also
S a egic o Eu ope
Tu key’s ecalib a ion owa ds I aq is no
an isola ed policy adjus men . Ins ead, i is
pa o a b oade s a egic shi in esponse
o a changing egional landscape. I an’s
egional ne wo k, he eme gence o he
Gul s a es as key economic and poli ical
b oke s, and Anka a’s own peace p ocess
wi h he PKK ha e opened new a enues o
Tu key o eposi ion i sel as a cen al ac o
in egional secu i y and connec i i y. I aq
has become he linchpin in his e o ,
which is a es case o Anka a’s a emp o
ins i u ionalize in luence h ough secu i y
coope a ion, economic in e dependence,
and in as uc u e in eg a ion.
While his eme ging Tu kish pos u e
may no be ully aligned wi h Eu opean
p e e ences – pa icula ly gi en scep icism
owa ds Tu key’s egional ambi ions – i
emains s a egically ele an o he EU. Fo
one, a educ ion in PKK- ela ed ensions, i
sus ained, would emo e a long-s anding
i i an in EU–Tu key ela ions, e en i he
un esol ed dynamics in Sy ia con inue o
complica e he pic u e. Mos impo an ly,
I an’s de ea may be iewed posi i ely in
Eu opean capi als, which emain conce ned
abou Teh an’s ole in egional des abilisa-
ion and nuclea p oli e a ion.
Ye , he co e challenge o Eu ope lies
no in Tu key’s ambi ions pe se, bu in
whe he and how hose ambi ions eshape
he egional o de in ways ha ei he com-
plemen o cons ain Eu opean in e es s.
Toge he wi h Gul pa ne s, Tu key and
I aq a e de eloping logis ics hubs, indus ial
zones, and c oss-bo de ade ou es, includ-
ing a s a egic land b idge o e ing an al e -
na i e o ma i ime chokepoin s like he Suez
Canal. Some EU Membe S a es al eady see
in es men oppo uni ies in hese egional
ini ia i es. The policy challenge o B ussels
SWP Commen 43
Oc obe 2025
8
is how hese na ional economic in e es s
can be mobilized collec i ely wi hin he
EU’s ex e nal policy amewo k.
Tu key’s g owing ole in I aq’s ene gy
and in as uc u e sec o s, o ins ance,
may no di ec ly se e he EU’s long- e m
di e si ica ion s a egy, which is inc easingly
o ien ed owa ds he Sou h Caucasus, Cen-
al Asia, and ansa lan ic liqui ied na u al
gas. None heless, hese de elopmen s could
ca y ac ical signi icance o nea - e m
supply s abili y, egula o y in luence, and
geopoli ical esilience – especially amid
ongoing ins abili y in he Red Sea, Eas e n
Medi e anean, and he Gul . E en i Eu ope
is unlikely o make I aq a pilla o i s di e -
si ica ion policy, he s abilisa ion o I aqi
ene gy lows and hei in eg a ion in o
Tu key’s in as uc u e s ill in e sec wi h
Eu opean in e es s in nea - e m supply
secu i y and egional ene gy go e nance,
no leas by educing Tu key’s o e depend-
ence on Russian and I anian ene gy supplies.
Mo eo e , Tu kish e o s o in eg a e I aq
in o i s hub s a egy ha links pipelines,
elec ici y g ids, and pe ochemicals wi h
Gul and Ana olian in as uc u e c ea e
new in e dependencies ha Eu ope canno
igno e. Engagemen he e could gi e B us-
sels a ole in shaping go e nance, e enue-
sha ing, and sus ainabili y s anda ds o
p ojec s ha impac he EU’s ene gy mix.
Secu i y in e dependence ollows a simi-
la logic. The US wi hd aw, ola ile secu i y
en i onmen , and possible I anian e alia-
ion in I aq, whe he agains US mili a y
s ikes, Is aeli ope a ions, o enewed sanc-
ions p essu e, is exposing he No h Ame i-
can T ea y O ganiza ion (NATO) and EU
ad iso y missions o g owing ope a ional
and secu i y isks. While Eu opean allies
ha e signalled g ea e commi men o sus-
aining hese missions, pe sis en limi a-
ions, anging om na ional ca ea s o
di e gen h ea pe cep ions, con inue o
unde mine cohe ence and e ec i eness. In
his e ol ing landscape, Tu key’s deepening
engagemen wi h Baghdad in he secu i y
ealm alongside i s b oade in as uc u e
and economic ini ia i es in oduces a new
laye o complexi y. Mo e impo an ly,
NATO’s asse s in Tu key– Ai bo ne Wa n-
ing and Con ol Sys em ai c a s a ioned
a Konya, logis ical dep h h ough İnci lik,
and missile de ence ada a Kü ecik – p o-
ide he Alliance wi h c i ical enable s o
si ua ional awa eness, o ce p o ec ion,
and ope a ional lexibili y. These unc ions,
a he han di ec comba suppo , a e likely
o become inc easingly ele an o he
u u e iabili y o NATO mission I aq and
o he EU’s abili y o sus ain i s engage-
men in I aq.
A a deepe le el, Anka a’s pos u e e lec s
he ise o egionally owned, minila e al
diplomacy schemes ancho ed in ansac-
ional coope a ion, s a egic hedging, and
in as uc u e diplomacy. I he EU emains
disengaged – whe he in ene gy, mig a-
ion, o secu i y – i isks being sidelined
om amewo ks inc easingly shaping i s
sou h-eas e n neighbou hood.
The EU does no need o endo se Tu -
key’s ision o I aq, bu i canno a o d o
be absen om a p ocess ha inc easingly
a ec s i s co e in e es s, anging om ene gy
secu i y and mig a ion o egional s abili y.
The EU and i s Membe S a es can bene i
om le e aging hei egula o y in luence,
inancial ins umen s, and diploma ic co-
o dina ion whe e in e es s o e lap, while
managing di e gence h ough calib a ed
engagemen .
Nebaha Tan ı e di Yaşa is a Visi ing Fellow a he Cen e o Applied Tu kish S udies (CATS) a SWP.
This a icle is pa o a policy se ies o he “Tu key-I aq Rela ions: Oppo uni ies and Tensions in Secu i y and
Connec i i y” p ojec o he Cen e o Applied Tu key S udies (CATS) ne wo k.
The Cen e o Applied Tu key S udies (CATS) is unded by
S i ung Me ca o and he Ge man Fede al Fo eign O ice.
This wo k is licensed
unde CC BY 4.0
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ISSN (P in ) 1861-1761
ISSN (Online) 2747-5107
DOI: 10.18449/2025C43
