Stayin’ alive? Government support measures in Portugal during the Covid-19 pandemic

Ma eus, Má cio; Neugebaue , Ka ja
A icle — Published Ve sion
S ayin’ ali e? Go e nmen suppo measu es in Po ugal
du ing he Co id-19 pandemic
Po uguese Economic Jou nal
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Sp inge Na u e
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Ma eus, Má cio; Neugebaue , Ka ja (2025) : S ayin’ ali e? Go e nmen suppo
measu es in Po ugal du ing he Co id-19 pandemic, Po uguese Economic Jou nal, ISSN
1617-9838, Sp inge , Be lin, Heidelbe g, Vol. 24, Iss. 3, pp. 335-372,
h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s10258-025-00271-2
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Po uguese Economic Jou nal (2025) 24:335–372
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
S ayin’ ali e? Go e nmen suppo measu es inPo ugal
du ing heCo id‑19 pandemic
Má cioMa eus2 · Ka jaNeugebaue 1
Recei ed: 13 July 2023 / Accep ed: 4 Janua y 2025 / Published online: 18 Ma ch 2025
© The Au ho (s) 2025
Abs ac
Du ing he Co id-19 c isis, he Po uguese go e nmen has p o ided a ple ho a o di e -
en suppo measu es o i ms. These included s a e-gua an eed loans and a public mo a-
o ium o exis ing loans. This pape examines he access o and up ake o hese measu es.
Wha we e he cha ac e is ics o i ms being g an ed s a e-gua an eed loans? We e hey
di e en o i ms accessing he mo a o ium? Did s a e-gua an eed loans po en ially lead
o an inc ease in zombie lending? We y o answe hese ques ions using highly g anula
bank-, i m- and loan-le el da a o Po ugal. We ind ha gua an eed loans wen mos ly
o i ms ope a ing in he sec o s mos se e ely hi by he pandemic and o i ms ha p e i-
ously had a c edi ela ion and/o bene i ed om a s a e gua an ee. Fu he mo e, he Po -
uguese public gua an ee scheme seems o mainly ha e suppo ed lowe -c edi - isk i ms.
In addi ion o ha , iskie i ms also paid highe in e es a es and ob ained smalle gua -
an eed loans han mo e iable i ms. Howe e , in con as o ou esul s o he s a e gua -
an ees, we ind ha iskie i ms we e mo e likely o bene i om he public mo a o ium.
Keywo ds Zombie lending· Zombie i ms· C edi misalloca ion· E e g eening·
S a e aid
JEL G30· G38· G21
1 In oduc ion
In 2020, he wo ld was hi by he Co id-19 pandemic. Unlike p e ious c ises,
his one hi coun ies comple ely unexpec edly and o a a ely seen ex en , lead-
ing o he adop ion o la ge-scale s a e-suppo measu es o keep economies a loa .
* Má cio Ma eus
[email p o ec ed]
Ka ja Neugebaue
[email p o ec ed]
1 BancodePo ugal, Po ugal
2 Eu opean Sys emic Risk Boa d Sec e a ia , F ank u , Ge many
336
M.Ma eus, K.Neugebaue
Go e nmen s a ound he globe implemen ed eme gency ac ions, anging om
social-dis ancing measu es, es ing and qua an ining policies, o income and liquid-
i y-suppo measu es, o help households and i ms. Agains his backg ound, many
coun ies elied on he inancial sys em o p o ide go e nmen -backed liquidi y o
suppo i ms in dealing wi h he e ec s o lockdowns, which had led o an ab up
and, in many cases, sus ained d ying up o income. In he case o Po ugal and mos
o he Eu opean coun ies, hese liquidi y-suppo measu es in ol ed s a e gua an ees
o new loans and a deb mo a o ium o exis ing ones.
These measu es ha e been essen ial o suppo i ms in he mos acu e phase o
he c isis, p o iding liquidi y a educed cos s in a con ex o an ab up inc ease in
he le el o isk. In his pape , we look a he cha ac e is ics o he i ms ha ha e
bene i ed om hese suppo measu es. Did loans wi h s a e gua an ees only go o
i ms ha we e iable be o e he onse o he pandemic, o did hey also lead o
an inc ease in he c edi g an ed o unp oduc i e and high- isk i ms? We e he e
any signi ican di e ences be ween he isk p o iles o i ms accessing he mo a o-
ium and hose accessing he public gua an ees, since access o he la e was much
s ic e ? We y o answe hese ques ions in his pape using de ailed loan-le el da a
om Banco de Po ugal’s Cen al C edi Regis e , ma ched wi h bo h i m and bank
balance-shee da a.
O e he las yea s, public c edi -gua an ee schemes ha e gained popula i y
wo ldwide as a ool o inc ease he a ailabili y o loans o inancially cons ained
i ms, ypically SMEs o s a -ups. Mos o he li e a u e on public c edi -gua an ee
schemes ocuses on he exis ence o asymme ic in o ma ion be ween he lende and
he bo owe , equen ly associa ed wi h he lack o adequa e colla e al, as a jus i i-
ca ion o go e nmen in e en ions in he c edi ma ke (Be ge and Udell 2006 and
Beck e al. 2010). The absence o go e nmen in e en ions migh o he wise esul
in he unde supply o a ioning o lending (Mankiw 1986; Gale 1990, 1991).
Compa ed wi h di ec lending by a public ins i u ion, loans gua an eed by go e n-
men -backed ins i u ions bu dis ibu ed by banks p esen se e al ad an ages. Fi s , a
Co id-19 s a e gua an ee is only conside ed as public deb i and when he gua an ee
is called, which means ha i en ails much lowe cos s as compa ed o di ec lend-
ing. This is pa icula ly impo an o Po ugal, one o he coun ies wi h he high-
es le els o public deb in he eu o a ea. Second, since sc eening and moni o ing
o bo owe s is le o p i a e ins i u ions, he isk o poli ically-induced lending is
being mi iga ed (Khwaja and Mian 2005). Fu he mo e, as s a e gua an ees usually
do no co e he ull loan amoun , banks also bea some c edi isk, hus limi ing
mo al-haza d conce ns.
Whe eas economic heo y ells us ha capi al should go whe e i yields he high-
es e u n and he e o e banks should alloca e i acco dingly, he exis ence o a pub-
lic-gua an ee scheme c ea es a new se o incen i es. On he one hand, i access
condi ions o gua an eed loans a e e y s ic , o a oid high cos s o he p og amme
o public inances ex-pos , only hose i ms ha would ob ain bank c edi anyway
will be bene i ing om s a e gua an ees. In his case, he bene i o public gua an-
ees would be es ic ed o p o iding c edi o i ms a lowe in e es a es, wi hou
imp o ing he o e all access o i ms o c edi . On he o he hand, i access condi-
ions a e oo gene ous, s a e gua an ees migh lead o ad e se selec ion, a ac ing
337
S ayin’ ali e? Go e nmen suppo measu es inPo ugal du ing…
iskie bo owe s and hus downg ading he quali y o he pool o bo owing i ms.
Finally, a mo al-haza d p oblem can a ise as inancial ins i u ions may also ha e
ewe incen i es o moni o he bo owe s a e g an ing he loan, since he la ges
pa o hese loans is gua an eed by he s a e.
Despi e he posi i e sho - e m impac o s a e-gua an eed loans in he con ex o
he Co id-19 pandemic, he medium- o long- e m impac can be p oblema ic i i
con ibu es o he su i al o unp oduc i e o e y isky i ms. In ac , he li e a u e
sugges s ha he su i al o unp oduc i e i ms—o en called zombie i ms—may
hampe he g ow h o hei mo e p oduc i e compe i o s h ough conges ion e ec s,
as zombie i ms e ain a ce ain ma ke sha e and use sca ce p oduc i e inpu s
(Caballe o e al. 2008; McGowan e al. 2018). Zombie lending can also be consid-
e ed a cause o compe i i e dis o ions, wi h a nega i e impac on heal hy i ms (see,
e.g., Acha ya e al. 2019, Acha ya e al. 2024, Bla ne e al. (2023) o hcoming,
Bane jee and Ho mann 2020, McGowan e al. 2018, Schmid e al. 2021). Fu he -
mo e, i can po en ially p e en he "c ea i e des uc ion" o i ms à la Schumpe e
(1942).
The ela ionship be ween c edi alloca ion and p oduc i i y is o c ucial impo -
ance o Po ugal, as p oduc i i y g ow h has been subdued since he u n o he
millennium, and he agg ega e p oduc i i y le el is ela i ely low compa ed o o he
EU coun ies. The lowe a e age le el o quali ica ion o Po uguese wo ke s and
manage s and he smalle scale o Po uguese i ms, when compa ed o o he EU
coun ies, may ce ainly explain pa o his phenomenon bu he e is also e idence
o ine icien c edi alloca ion be ween 2008 and 2016 (Aze edo e al. 2022).
The e ec i eness o s a e-suppo measu es has gained enewed a en ion in he
wake o he Co id-19 pandemic, and se e al pape s ha e ied o gauge he impac
o he s a e-suppo measu es ha ha e been pu in o place. Using an accoun ing
exe cise, Schi a di and Romano (2020) ind ha , wi hou go e nmen suppo , a
la ge numbe o I alian companies would ha e become illiquid e y ea ly on in he
c isis. Howe e , hey also show ha go e nmen suppo measu es in he o m o
c edi gua an ees could co e mo e o less all he liquidi y needs o I alian i ms.
Fu he mo e, hey a gue ha , du ing excep ional pe iods like he Co id-19 pan-
demic, i migh be wo hwhile h owing po en ial zombie i ms a li eline in o de
o p o ec he unc ioning o p oduc ion o alue chains hey migh be in ol ed in.
Du ing economically s ess ul imes, he loss o a link in he p oduc ion chain (i.e.,
he closu e o a zombie i m) migh lead o missing inpu s o o he i ms in he
same alue chain, po en ially causing a domino e ec . Co e and De Ma co ( o h-
coming) use I alian loan-le el da a o es how e icien he p i a e sec o has been
in alloca ing public gua an ees. They ind ha la ge banks and banks wi h be e
in o ma ion echnology played an impo an ole in he e icien alloca ion o hese
loans. They also ind a posi i e impac o ela ionship lending in I aly. A pa icula ly
in e es ing inding o hei analysis is ha iskie i ms had highe ake-up a es o
s a e-gua an eed loans. Casca ino e al. (2022) also examine he e ec o he I alian
public loan gua an ee p og amme on c edi addi ionali y du ing he Co id-19 pan-
demic. They ind ha public gua an ees we e e ec i e in inc easing c edi supply,
especially o smalle and iskie i ms. Fu he mo e, he indings sugges ha bank
capi al played a undamen al ole in suppo ing highe lending h ough gua an eed
338
M.Ma eus, K.Neugebaue
loans in he ace o he excep ional liquidi y shock. In addi ion, gua an eed loans
we e no g an ed mo e equen ly o ex-an e iskie i ms, and he c edi addi ion-
ali y o he gua an ees did no subs an ially depend on i m cha ac e is ics, wi h
only a sligh ly highe subs i u ion o exis ing c edi o gua an eed loans o iskie
i ms. Bighelli e al. (2021) use c oss-coun y mic o-le el da a in o de o examine
he po en ial consequences o he Co id-19 pandemic on p oduc i i y in C oa ia,
Finland, Slo akia and Slo enia. In doing so, he au ho s also analyse which i m-
le el cha ac e is ics had an impac on he likelihood o bene i ing om go e nmen
subsidies. They mainly look a wage subsidies ha allowed companies o con inue
paying hei employees. They ind ha he mo e p oduc i e i ms in C oa ia, Slo a-
kia and Slo enia had a highe likelihood o ecei ing s a e aid, al hough he amoun
o he subsidies was lowe o hose i ms. In he case o Finland, p oduc i i y did
no seem o ha e an impac on he alloca ion o go e nmen subsidies. The au ho s
also ind ha only a small sha e o he subsidies wen o zombie i ms. Al a illa
e al. (2021) examine whe he s a e-gua an eed loans ac ually led o an inc ease in
he c edi supply o i ms, o whe he hey me ely we e used as a subs i u e o non-
gua an eed loans. Using c edi - egis e as well as supe iso y da a o ou la ge
eu o-a ea coun ies (F ance, Ge many, I aly, Spain), hey ind ha he e was some
subs i u ion aking place bu ha go e nmen gua an ees la gely con ibu ed o an
ex ension o c edi . Fu he mo e, his new c edi wen mainly o small and la gely
c edi wo hy i ms in he sec o s mos a ec ed by he pandemic. The banks ex end-
ing hese gua an eed loans we e p edominan ly la ge, liquid and well-capi alised.
Jiménez e al. (2024), using da a om he Spanish c edi egis e o he Co id-19
pe iod, ind ha public loan gua an ees we e mo e likely o be g an ed o iskie
i ms and small and medium en e p ises. Addi ionally, public loan gua an ees we e
mo e likely o be ex ended by banks wi h highe non-pe o ming loan a ios, lowe
capi al a ios, and lowe p o i abili y. In con as , he same i m and bank cha ac e -
is ics had he opposi e e ec on he likelihood o ob aining loans wi hou a public
loan gua an ee.
The abo e-men ioned esul s p esen mixed e idence conce ning a u u e isk o
zombie ica ion, as i seems ha economically iable as well as un iable i ms ha e
p o i ed om hese s a e-suppo measu es. Gi en he s ic access equi emen
o s a e-gua an eed loans in Po ugal du ing he c isis, i will be in e es ing o see
whe he esul s a e mo e clea -cu in he Po uguese case.
Ou analysis s a s ou by mapping he e olu ion o zombie i ms in Po ugal.
In a nex s ep, we hen analyse whe he zombie i ms we e mo e likely han non-
zombie i ms o ake ou go e nmen gua an eed loans. Howe e , he Po uguese
go e nmen had imposed s ic ules on he eligibili y o go e nmen gua an ees,
and he e o e he up ake by zombie i ms should ha e been la gely p e en ed. Fu -
he mo e, i ms could also make use o a public mo a o ium, o which he access
condi ions we e much less s ic . The e o e, we add o he exis ing li e a u e by no
only looking a he access o zombie i ms o go e nmen -gua an eed loans bu also
hei ake-up o he public mo a o ium. Indeed, we expec o ind a la ge sha e o
zombie and quasi-zombie i ms o ha e made use o he mo a o ium as compa ed o
he s a e gua an ees. This migh imply isks o inancial s abili y now ha he mo a-
o ium has ended and i ms need o con inue paying back hei loans.

339
S ayin’ ali e? Go e nmen suppo measu es inPo ugal du ing…
We ind ha he numbe o zombie i ms in Po ugal has dec eased o e ime.
Desc ip i e esul s show ha while only a small sha e o zombie and quasi-zombie
i ms ha e been g an ed s a e-gua an eed loans, hei sha e is subs an ially highe
when i comes o access o he public mo a o ium. Ou eg ession esul s con i m
hese indings. On he one hand, he Po uguese public-gua an ee scheme seems
o mainly ha e suppo ed lowe -c edi - isk i ms. On he o he hand, we ind ha
iskie i ms we e mo e likely o apply o he public mo a o ium. Fu he mo e, ou
esul s also show ha iskie i ms paid highe in e es a es and ob ained smalle
gua an eed loans han mo e iable i ms. In addi ion o ha , we ind ha i ms
ha p e iously had a c edi ela ion and/o bene i ed om a s a e gua an ee we e
mo e likely o also bene i his ime. Finally, we ind ha i ms in he sec o s mos
a ec ed by he pandemic we e mo e likely o bene i om he s a e gua an ees and
he mo a o ium.
Ou pape is s uc u ed as ollows. Sec ion2 gi es some ins i u ional backg ound
on s a e-suppo measu es in Po ugal du ing he Co id-19 pandemic. Sec ion 3
gi es an o e iew o he da a being used, he zombie me hodology chosen, and
p esen s some desc ip i e s a is ics. Sec ion4 p esen s he eg ession esul s, and
Sec .5 concludes.
2 Po uguese go e nmen ‑suppo measu es du ing heCo id‑19
pandemic
Access o s a e-suppo measu es du ing he Co id-19 pandemic di e ed ac oss
coun ies. This sec ion gi es an o e iew o he espec i e public-gua an ee scheme
and he mo a o ium in Po ugal.
2.1 The Po uguese public gua an ee scheme
The Po uguese public gua an ee scheme s a ed i s ope a ion in 1994, when he
i s public en i y en i led o g an public gua an ees (SPGM—Sociedade de In es-
imen os) was c ea ed. Since hen, ou mo e public en i ies, commonly e e ed o
as Sociedades de Ga an ia Mú ua (SGM), ha e been gi en he igh o g an public
gua an ees: Ag oga an e, Ga al, Lisga an e and No ga an e. Howe e , his ype o
go e nmen suppo only expe ienced a majo boos in Po ugal, like in o he Eu o-
pean coun ies, in he a e ma h o 2007–08 global inancial c isis. Be ween 2007
and 2010, he ou s anding amoun o gua an ees inc eased om €0.5 o €3.8 billion
(Fig.1).
In esponse o he Co id-19 pandemic, he Po uguese go e nmen s eng hened
he SGM capaci y o issue gua an ees. Se e al c edi lines we e c ea ed o suppo
speci ic sec o s o ac i i y, pa icula ly hose mos a ec ed by he pandemic, o spe-
ci ic egions. Be ween Ma ch 2020 and July 2021, he s ock o bank loans o non-
inancial co po a ions (NFC) wi h a s a e gua an ee a ached inc eased om abou
€5 billion, a ound 8% o he s ock o bank loans o NFCs, o abou €13 billion, abou
17% o he s ock (Fig.2).
340
M.Ma eus, K.Neugebaue
The ea u es o he Co id-19 gua an eed c edi lines complied wi h he Eu opean
Commission’s Tempo a y F amewo k o s a e-aid measu es o suppo he economy
du ing he COVID-19 ou b eak.1 Mos o he c edi lines ha e a maximum ma u i y
o six yea s, al hough some can each up o 10yea s (some conside a g ace pe iod
be ween 1 and 2yea s). The maximum amoun o he gua an ees p o ided a ies
acco ding o he c edi line. In some cases, a maximum amoun pe i m is se bu
usually i is p opo ional o he numbe o employees o he i m size. In all c edi
Fig. 1 Annual amoun o gua an ees issued and end-o -yea amoun s ou s anding. Sou ce: Annual
income s a emen s o SPGM—Sociedade de In es imen o and Banco Po uguês de Fomen o
Fig. 2 S ocks and sha es o bank loans o NFCs wi h a s a e gua an ee. Sou ce: Banco de Po ugal’s Cen-
al C edi Regis e
1 h ps:// ec. eu opa. eu/ compe i ion- policy/ s a e- aid/ co on a i us/ empo a y- amewo k_en.
341
S ayin’ ali e? Go e nmen suppo measu es inPo ugal du ing…
lines, he maximum amoun pe bene icia y is capped a one qua e o he sales
in 2019 o wice he annual pay oll o he bene icia y o 2019, o o he las yea
a ailable. The gua an ee le el a ies be ween 70 and 90% o he p incipal amoun
due. The sp eads o he gua an eed loans a e capped a 1%, 1.25% and 1.5% on loans
wi h a ma u i y below 1yea , be ween 1 and 3yea s, and be ween 3 and 6yea s,
espec i ely. Addi ionally, i ms also incu a gua an ee ee ha a ies be ween
0.25% and 2%, depending on i m size and loan ma u i y. Finally, he as majo i y
o gua an eed lending is associa ed wi h genuinely new loans, no a eplacemen o
exis ing c edi acili ies wi h he lende . The eligibili y c i e ia a e c edi -line spe-
ci ic, and he main ac o o di e en ia ion is usually he sec o o ac i i y he line
was a ge ed a . Ne e heless, he e a e many common ea u es be ween he di e en
c edi lines. S a e gua an ees canno be g an ed o i ms quali ied as "unde akings
in di icul y"2 on 31 Decembe 2019, o i ms wi h c edi inciden s pending wi hin
he banking sys em o he mu ual gua an ee scheme sys em, o i ms whose ax o
social secu i y si ua ion is no in o de , o o i ms wi h nega i e equi y on he las
app o ed balance shee .3 Fi ms whose headqua e s o managemen a e loca ed in
coun ies, e i o ies o egions wi h a clea ly mo e a ou able ax egime and la ge
i ms wi h mo e han 3,000 employees, ope a ing in sec o s o he han he ou ism
sec o ,4 we e also no eligible. Addi ionally, he access o some c edi lines was also
es ic ed o i ms whose u no e d opped below a ce ain h eshold, usually 25% o
40%, ia-à- is p e-Co id le els. Less equen ly, i ms we e also equi ed o main-
ain all pe manen jobs up o 31 Decembe 2020.
2.2 The Po uguese public mo a o ium
One o he mos equen measu es ac oss Eu ope in esponse o he pandemic was a
loan mo a o ium o bo owe s. Agains he ini ial backg ound o an ab up decline
in i ms’ u no e and he educ ion in households’ disposable income wi hin a e y
sho ime pe iod, he e was a signi ican isk o he bo owe s no being able o
ul ill hei c edi - ela ed obliga ions. I aligned wi h Eu opean Banking Au ho -
i y Guidelines (EBA/GL/2020/02), mo a o ia allowed lende s o no eclassi y he
loans bene i ing om his measu e, almos au oma ically, as o bo ne. This a ou -
able p uden ial ea men o loans co e ed by he mo a o ia a oided an inc ease in
capi al cos s and impai men s ha would ha e esul ed om an almos au oma ic
eclassi ica ion.
Gi en he se e i y o he isks associa ed wi h he Co id-19 pandemic, he Po -
uguese go e nmen – as also obse ed in o he Eu opean coun ies—es ablished a
2 As de ined in A icle 2 (18) o he Commission Regula ion (EU) No 651/2014 o 17 June 2014.
3 Companies wi h nega i e equi y on he las app o ed balance shee we e allowed o access a gua an-
eed c edi line i hey p esen ed his si ua ion o be egula ised in he in e im balance shee un il he da e
o he espec i e applica ion.
4 The e is only one c edi line o which la ge i ms wi h mo e han 3,000 employees we e eligible,
which was Linha Co id – TURISMO (Médias e G andes Emp esas). The ou ism sec o , as de ined
by his c edi line, includes he ollowing NACE codes: 49,392, 55, 56, 77, 79, 82,300, 90, 91, 93 and
96,040.
342
M.Ma eus, K.Neugebaue
public mo a o ium egime.5 Ini ially in o ce be ween 27 Ma ch 2020 and 30 Sep-
embe 2020, i was i s ex ended un il 31 Ma ch 20216 and hen, in he con ex
o he wo sening pandemic, un il Sep embe 2021.7 Wi h his la e amendmen ,
i ms we e en i led o eques he applica ion o he public mo a o ium un il 31
Ma ch 2021, and up o a maximum o nine mon hs, o loans ha did no bene i
om his measu e be o e. Only loans g an ed be o e he mo a o ium came in o o ce
(i.e., be o e 27 Ma ch 2020) we e conside ed eligible o he mo a o ium. The la ge
majo i y o i ms joined he mo a o ium un il June 2020 (Fig.3).
The Po uguese mo a o ium egime in oduced a se o measu es. Fi s , an ex en-
sion o c edi ag eemen s wi h p incipal paymen a he end o he con ac (bulle
loans), unde he same e ms and o a pe iod equal o he du a ion o he mo a-
o ium. Second, he suspension o he paymen o p incipal, income and in e es
wi h ma u i y scheduled un il he end o ha pe iod, o he pe iod du ing which
he measu e is in e ec . Thi d, he p ohibi ion o e oking c edi -line ag eemen s
and loans g an ed o he amoun s con ac ed a he da e o en y in o o ce o he
Dec ee-Law (27 Ma ch 2020).
Access o he mo a o ium depended on he cumula i e compliance wi h he ol-
lowing equi emen s: i) i ms a e equi ed o ha e a head-o ice and economic ac i -
i y in Po ugal; ii) no being pa o he inancial sec o ; iii) o ha e hei ax and
social secu i y si ua ion in o de and; i ) he loan bene i ing om he mo a o ium
could no be mo e han 90days o e due. Loans g an ed o inance he acquisi ion o
secu i ies o posi ions in o he inancial ins umen s and c edi ca ds o indi idual
use we e also no eligible.
Fig. 3 Amoun s and sha es o NFC loans unde he public mo a o ium. Sou ce: Banco de Po ugal’s
Cen al C edi Regis e
5 Unde Dec ee-Law No 10-J/2020 o 26 Ma ch 2020.
6 Unde Dec ee-Law No 26/2020 o 16 June 2020.
7 Unde Dec ee-Law No 107/2020 o 31 Decembe 2020.
349
S ayin’ ali e? Go e nmen suppo measu es inPo ugal du ing…
Table 2 Desc ip i e s a is ics. This able p esen s summa y s a is ics o he di e en samples used o
es ima ion in his pape . The uppe hal o he able p esen s he s a e-gua an ee sample. I con ains da a
a he i m le el, he loan le el as well as egional and bank-le el da a. Desc ip i e s a is ics o he mo a-
o ium sample a e p esen ed in he lowe hal o he able
S a e-gua an ee sample N Mean S d.De 5 h pc Median 95 h pc
Fi m le el da a
S a e-gua an ee (dummy) 253,251 0.2 0.4 0 0 1
Mos a ec ed sec o (dummy) 253,251 0.235 0.424 0 0 1
P e ious c edi ela ion (dummy) 253,251 0.513 0.5 0 1 1
P e ious s a e gua an ee (dummy) 253,251 0.124 0.33 0 0 1
Asse s (€ millions) 253,251 1.247 12.5 0.015 0.177 3.715
Cash / Asse s 253,251 0.237 0.261 0.001 0.133 0.824
EBITDA / Asse s 253,251 0.106 0.765 −0.123 0.082 0.487
P obabili y o de aul (%) 253,251 2.554 3.354 0.237 1.386 9
Zombie 253,251 0.256 0.399 0 0 1
Nega i e GVA (dummy) 253,251 0.103 0.304 0 0 1
Loan le el da a
Loan amoun (€)—wi h s a e-gua an ee 61,560 132,532 307,101 10,000 50,000 500,000
Loan amoun (€)—wi hou s a e-gua an ee 231,235 61,386 476,707 1,189 15,000 191,482
Loan in e es a e (%)—wi h s a e-gua an ee 61,558 1.432 0.509 0.671 1.5 2.25
Loan in e es a e (%)—wi hou s a e-
gua an ee
230,465 3.583 3.714 0 2.5 10.471
Loan ma u i y (yea s)—wi h s a e-gua an ee 61,560 5.379 1.111 3.833 6 6
Loan ma u i y (yea s)—wi hou s a e-
gua an ee
231,235 1.58 2.559 0.083 0.333 6
Gua an ee (o he han s a e)—wi h s a e-
gua an ee
61,560 0.368 0.482 0 0 1
Gua an ee (o he han s a e)—wi hou s a e-
gua an ee
231,235 0.576 0.494 0 1 1
Region le el da a
Excess mo ali y 7 1.121 0.066 1.045 1.135 1.222
Bank-le el da a
Bank asse s (€ millions) 34 10,688 22,503 33 787 81,651
Bank own unds a io (%) 34 31.083 27.663 13.033 19.275 95.808
Bank NPL a io (%) 34 7.405 10.64 0.134 4.94 25.404
Bank ROA (%) 34 0.131 2.303 −5.804 0.551 2.791
In e bank unding / Asse s (%) 34 26.6 35.88 0 6.61 95.18
Mo a o ium sample N Mean S d.De 5 h pc Median 95 h pc
Fi m le el da a
Mo a o ium (dummy) 138,921 0.349 0.477 0 0 1
Mos a ec ed sec o (dummy) 138,921 0.263 0.44 0 0 1
P e ious s a e gua an ee (dummy) 138,921 0.238 0.426 0 0 1
Asse s (€ millions) 138,921 2.321 71.178 0.023 0.245 5.142
Cash / Asse s 138,921 0.159 0.191 0.002 0.085 0.58
EBITDA / Asse s 138,921 −0.038 9.603 −0.222 0.08 0.38
P obabili y o de aul (%) 138,921 3.085 4.183 0.181 1.641 10.875

350
M.Ma eus, K.Neugebaue
( he median o i ms’ asse s is sligh ly below €180,000), ha e a com o able liquid-
i y posi ion ( he median o he cash- o-asse s a io is a ound 13%), a low le e age
a io ( he median o liabili ies o e asse s is abou 53%) and a low p obabili y o
de aul (hal o he i ms in he sample had a p obabili y o de aul o e a one-yea
ho izon below 1.4%). The le el o zombieness is ela i ely low, and abou 10% o
he i ms eco ded a nega i e g oss alue added in 2019
Table3 compa es he desc ip i e s a is ics o ou sample o i ms eligible o he
s a e gua an ee wi h hose o non-eligible i ms. Abou 133,000 i ms, which co -
esponds o a ound 27% o he Po uguese i ms, we e non-eligible o a s a e gua -
an ee. The sha e o i ms ope a ing in he sec o s mos a ec ed by he pandemic
is highe o he non-eligible i ms (32.6% e sus 23.1%), which sugges s ha a
non-negligible pa o he i ms ope a ing in hose sec o s we e excluded om he
gua an eed c edi lines. The sha e o i ms wi h a c edi ela ion o a s a e gua an-
ee be o e he beginning o he pandemic was signi ican ly lowe o he non-eligi-
ble i ms (40.8% and 3.9%, e sus 51.5% and 12.3%, espec i ely). Looking a he
median, we can obse e ha eligible i ms a e signi ican ly la ge (€180,000 e sus
€33,000), ha e mo e liquidi y (13% e sus 6.1%), a e mo e p o i able (8.2% e sus
−3.6%) and ma kedly less le e aged (53% e sus 161%) han non-eligible i ms.
Mo eo e , eligible i ms a e much less likely o en e in o de aul and eco d a lowe
le el o zombieness (1.4% and 0 e sus 7.1% and 0.85, espec i ely). Finally, he
sha e o i ms wi h a nega i e GVA is almos h ee imes highe o he non-eligible
Table 2 (con inued)
Zombie 138,921 0.29 0.406 0 0 1
Nega i e GVA (dummy) 138,921 0.066 0.247 0 0 1
Table 3 Desc ip i e s a is ics: eligible s. non-eligible i ms o s a e-gua an ees. This able p esen s
summa y s a is ics o i m-le el explana o y a iables o eligible and non- eligible i ms wi h espec o
access o he s a e gua an ees
Mean 5 h pc . Median 95 h pc .
Eligi-
ble
Non-
eligible
Eligi-
ble
Non-
eligible
Eligi-
ble
Non-
eligible
Eligi-
ble
Non-
eligi-
ble
Mos a ec ed sec o (dummy) 0.231 0.326 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 1.000
P e ious c edi ela ion (dummy) 0.515 0.408 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000 1.000 1.000
P e ious s a e gua an ee (dummy) 0.123 0.039 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000
Asse s (€ millions) 1.249 2.048 0.015 0.001 0.177 0.033 3.714 1.385
Cash / Asse s 0.237 0.190 0.001 0.000 0.133 0.061 0.824 0.892
EBITDA / Asse s 0.106 −10.685 −0.123 −5.348 0.082 −0.036 0.487 0.340
Le e age 0.513 268.010 0.037 0.564 0.527 1.611 0.955 27.339
P obabili y o de aul (%) 2.555 9.734 0.237 1.020 1.386 7.094 9.001 27.599
Zombie 0.256 0.537 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.846 1.000 1.000
Nega i e GVA (dummy) 0.104 0.309 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1.000 1.000
351
S ayin’ ali e? Go e nmen suppo measu es inPo ugal du ing…
i ms (30.9% e sus 10.4%). These esul s co obo a e he inc eased inancial agil-
i y o i ms no eligible o he s a e gua an ees
3.4.2 Mo a o ium sample
The up ake o he mo a o ium ou pe o med he one o he s a e-gua an ee scheme,
as abou 35% o eligible i ms made use o i (Table2). As wi h he s a e-gua an ee
scheme, a ound one qua e o eligible i ms we e in one o he sec o s mos a ec ed
by he pandemic. The sha e o i ms in ou mo a o ium sample ha bene i ed om
a s a e gua an ee be o e he pandemic was 24%. Fi m size, le e age, p obabili y o
de aul and le el o zombieness is la ge in he mo a o ium sample, when compa ed
wi h he s a e-gua an ee sample, whe eas he sha e o liquid asse s and he sha e
o i ms wi h a nega i e GVA is somewha lowe . O e all, he desc ip i e s a is ics
show an inc eased iskiness o he mo a o ium sample
3.4.3 Zombie i ms inPo ugal
Figu e5 shows he de elopmen in he le el o zombieness as well as he sha e o
zombie i ms acco ding o he McGowan e al. (2018) and S o z e al. (2017) de i-
ni ions. Resul s o hese de ini ions indica e a decline in he sha e o Po uguese
zombie i ms o e ime. Using he McGowan e al. (2018) de ini ion, he sha e o
zombie i ms in Po ugal in 2019 s ood a 6.9%, a decline by 4 p.p. om i s peak in
2014. Looking a he bina y zombie de ini ion by S o z e al. (2017), esul s indi-
ca e a zombie sha e o only 4.8% in 2019 (down om 10.4% in 2012). Howe e ,
by making his de ini ion uzzy, esul s ge much iche . Figu e 5 also plo s he
sha e o i ms wi h a zombie sco e o 0.5 o highe . In 2019, 28.0% o Po uguese
Fig. 5 Sha e o zombie and quasi-zombie i ms in Po ugal | in %. Sou ce: Cen al Balance-Shee Da a-
base and au ho s’ calcula ions
352
M.Ma eus, K.Neugebaue
i ms ell in o his ange. B eaking his u he down shows ha 14.1% o Po u-
guese i ms we e in he ange be ween 0.9 < Z < 1 in 2019, i.e., hey we e ela i ely
close o being ull zombies (Z = 1). Mos i ms in his ange ail o be classi ied as
ull zombies acco ding o he bina y zombie de ini ion only because hey eco ded
ze o ne in es men . 9.2% o he i ms had a zombie sco e be ween 0.5 and 0.9 in
2019. As was he case o he bina y de ini ion, he sha e o zombies using he uzzy
de ini ion has declined s eadily since i s peak in 2013, whe e i s ood a 36.1%. This
decline is also obse ed when looking a he employmen - and asse -weigh ed sha es
o ull zombie i ms, ob ained by weigh ing he ull zombies by hei espec i e
sha es o employmen and asse s wi hin he o e all popula ion o i ms. The sha e
o employmen -weigh ed zombie i ms s ood a 8.8% in 2013 and declined o 3.1%
in 2019, whe eas he sha e o asse -weigh ed zombies declined om 7.7% in 2013 o
2.9% in 2019. Compa ing hese weigh ed sha es wi h he unweigh ed ones indica es
ha Po uguese zombie i ms a e smalle han he a e age i m, accoun ing o less
employmen and o al asse s
3.4.4 Zombie i ms and hei up ake o  hePo uguese s a e‑suppo measu es
Be ween Ma ch 2020 and June 2021, 54.8% o he amoun o he new loans wi h
s a e gua an ees wen o non-zombie i ms ( i ms’ le el o zombieness was assessed
based on he da a a ailable up o 2019, i.e., be o e he pandemic), whe eas his sha e
was 52.9% o new loans wi hou s a e gua an ees (Fig.6). Only 0.9% o he amoun
o new loans wi h a s a e gua an ee was g an ed o ull zombie i ms. The p opo ion
was almos iden ical o new loans wi hou a s a e gua an ee, abou 0.8%. 38.4% o
new loans wi h a s a e gua an ee we e ob ained by i ms wi h sco es below 1 and
highe han o equal o 0.5. Abou hal o his amoun wen o i ms wi h a zom-
bie sco e o 0.8 o highe bu below 1. The ac ha loans wi h s a e gua an ees
Fig. 6 Sha e o new loans g an ed o zombie and quasi-zombie i ms. Sou ce: Cen al Balance-Shee
Da abase, Cen al C edi Regis e and au ho s’ calcula ions
353
S ayin’ ali e? Go e nmen suppo measu es inPo ugal du ing…
p edominan ly wen o non-zombie i ms o i ms wi h low zombie sco es e lec s
he s ic access condi ions o hese ypes o loans
As de ailed in Sec .2.2, access equi emen s we e so e o he mo a o ium han
hose o s a e-gua an eed loans. Ne e heless, only 4.0% o he amoun o he loans
unde he mo a o ium belongs o ull zombie i ms. The espec i e sha e is 53.1%
o i ms wi h zombie sco es abo e (o equal o) 0.5 and below 1 (Fig.7). This indi-
ca es ha he sha e o loans unde he mo a o ium ha belongs o lowe - quali y
i ms is la ge han ha o highe -quali y i ms. Howe e , i is no ewo hy ha also
a la ge sha e o loans unde he mo a o ium belongs o non-zombie i ms (37.3%)
4 Resul s
In his sec ion we analyse he impac o i m, bank and loan cha ac e is ics on he
up ake o s a e-gua an eed loans and he mo a o ium du ing he pandemic. The
s a ing poin o ou analysis is he eg ession se up used by Co e and De Ma co
(2024), who look a s a e-suppo measu es in I aly du ing he Co id-19 pandemic.
Fi s , based on i m-le el da a, we es ima e he ac o s in luencing he likelihood o
i ms ge ing a gua an eed loan. Second, using loan-le el da a, we analyse he a i-
ables in luencing he in e es a es and loan amoun s o new loans g an ed du ing
he pandemic. Thi d, we e u n o he i m-le el da a o analyse he ac o s in luenc-
ing he mo a o ium up ake, compa ing he isk p o ile o i ms ha bene i ed om
he mo a o ium wi h hose ha bene i ed om he s a e gua an ees. All a iables
p esen ed in he eg ession ables ha e been no malised o ha e a mean o 0 and a
s anda d de ia ion o 1. Thus, all he coe icien s can be compa ed and ead as he
Fig. 7 Sha e o loans unde he mo a o ium alloca ed o zombie and quasi-zombie i ms. Sou ce: Cen al
Balance-Shee Da abase, Cen al C edi Regis e and au ho s’ calcula ions
354
M.Ma eus, K.Neugebaue
e ec o a one s anda d de ia ion inc ease. Es ima ions a e done using S a a’s egh-
d e (Co eia 2017), which allows o mul i-way ixed e ec s and clus e ing.
4.1 S a e gua an ees du ing hepandemic— i m‑le el e idence
In his sec ion, we analyse he impac o i m, egion and sec o cha ac e is ics on
he up ake o new s a e gua an ees du ing he pandemic by es ima ing he ollowing
linea p obabili y model:
whe e S a e Gua an ee , ,s is a dummy a iable ha is equal o one i i m , whose
headqua e s a e loca ed in egion and ha ope a es in sec o s has been g an ed a
loan wi h a s a e gua an ee, and ze o o he wise. The con ol g oup consis s o i ms
ha we e eligible bu did no ecei e any s a e-gua an eed loan be ween Ap il 2020
and June 2021. Mos -a ec ed sec o s is a dummy a iable ha akes on he alue
o one o i ms in hose sec o s ha eco ded a dec ease in u no e o mo e han
40% in he second qua e o 2020, compa ed o he expec able si ua ion in a sce-
na io wi hou he pandemic, and ze o o he wise. Excess mo ali y is he a io o
he numbe o human dea hs eco ded be ween Ma ch 2020 − Ap il 2021 and Ma ch
2019 − Ap il 2020 in each egion, and ec o X con ains a se o i m-speci ic
con ols, as de ailed in Sec .3.2. All i m- le el a iables e e o he end o 2019.
Addi ionally, we also include h ee dummy a iables ha a e equal o one i a i m
eco ded a nega i e GVA in 2019, accessed a s a e-gua an eed loan in 2019 o a he
beginning o 2020 (be o e he pandemic) o had a c edi ela ion p io o he onse o
he pandemic, espec i ely, and ze o o he wise. Finally, speci ica ion 1 also con ains
egion, sec o o egion-sec o ixed e ec s, hus con olling o unobse ed he e o-
genei y. S anda d e o s a e clus e ed a he sec o le el.
The esul s o he gua an eed-loans up ake a e p esen ed in Table4. The es i-
ma es p esen ed in column (1), using only egion ixed e ec s, indica e ha ope a -
ing in one o he sec o s ha we e mos a ec ed by he pandemic inc eases i ms’
p obabili y o accessing a s a e-gua an eed loan by 12.9 pe cen age poin s, i.e., he e
is a 65% highe p obabili y compa ed wi h he mean ake-up a e o 20%. The coe -
icien o his a iable is la ge in compa ison wi h he o he explana o y a iables.
This is in line wi h expec a ions, since mos o he s a e-gua an eed c edi lines we e
speci ically a ge ed a hose sec o s.
In e es ingly, he es ima es in column (2) sugges ha i ms loca ed in egions
wi h a highe excess mo ali y ha e a lowe p obabili y o accessing a s a e-gua -
an eed loan. Howe e , since we a e no con olling o o he egion cha ac e is ic in
his eg ession se up, his coe icien may be cap u ing o he unobse ed egional
e ec s.
The mos impo an ac o s in luencing he likelihood o i ms ge ing a s a e
gua an ee, in all speci ica ions, is ha ing al eady had a c edi ela ion o a s a e-
gua an eed loan in he pas . Column 4, ou mos sa u a ed speci ica ion in e ms
(1)
S a e Gua an ee
, ,s=
𝛽
0+
𝛽
1
Mos -a ec ed sec o
s+
𝛽
2
Excess mo ali y
+𝛽
3
X
+FE +𝜀
, ,s

355
S ayin’ ali e? Go e nmen suppo measu es inPo ugal du ing…
o ixed e ec s, indica es ha i a i m had any s a e-gua an eed loan be o e he
beginning o he pandemic (be ween Janua y 2019 and Ma ch 2020), i was 19
pe cen age poin s mo e likely o ecei e a s a e-gua an eed loan, compa ed o
a i m wi hou a p e ious s a e-gua an eed loan. In he same ein, i ms wi h a
c edi ela ion p io o he onse o he pandemic we e 17.6 pe cen age poin s
mo e likely o ecei e a s a e-gua an eed loan is-à- is i ms wi hou a c edi
ela ion. These e ec s a e la ge and also in ui i e, as i ms ha we e al eady in
he c edi ma ke and i ms ha had success ully gone h ough he applica ion
Table 4 S a e-gua an eed loans ( i m-le el da a). This eg ession able p esen s es ima ion esul s
ob ained by using a Linea P obabili y Model. The dependen a iable is a dummy ha is equal o one
o eligible i ms ha ecei ed a go e nmen -gua an eed loan du ing he Co id-19 pandemic, and ze o
o eligible i ms ha did no . Va iables ha e been no malised o ha e a mean o ze o and a s anda d
de ia ion o one. S anda d e o s a e clus e ed a he sec o le el. *, ** and *** deno e signi icance a he
10%, 5% and 1% le el, espec i ely
Dependen a iable S a e-gua an ee dummy
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
Mos a ec ed sec o 0.129***
(0.024)
P e ious c edi ela ion 0.198***
(0.007)
0.174***
(0.008)
0.177***
(0.008)
0.176***
(0.008)
0.172***
(0.008)
P e ious s a e gua an ee 0.206***
(0.01)
0.189***
(0.006)
0.192***
(0.006)
0.190***
(0.007)
0.189***
(0.007)
Asse s 0.070***
(0.018)
0.103***
(0.012)
0.098***
(0.012)
0.098***
(0.013)
0.094***
(0.012)
Cash/asse s −0.033***
(0.005)
−0.048***
(0.003)
−0.048***
(0.003)
−0.047***
(0.003)
−0.046***
(0.003)
EBITDA/asse s 0.006
(0.004)
0.004
(0.004)
0.005
(0.004)
0.005
(0.004)
0.002
(0.003)
Le e age 0.109***
(0.013)
0.109***
(0.012)
0.109***
(0.011)
0.107***
(0.012)
0.099***
(0.011)
P obabili y o de aul −0.040***
(0.006)
−0.047***
(0.006)
−0.047***
(0.006)
−0.047***
(0.006)
−0.040***
(0.006)
Zombie −0.036***
(0.006)
−0.027***
(0.005)
−0.027***
(0.005)
−0.026***
(0.005)
Excess mo ali y −0.053***
(0.004)
Nega i e GVA −0.054***
(0.009)
Fixed e ec s
Region YES NO YES NO NO
Sec o NO YES YES NO NO
Region-Sec o NO NO NO YES YES
Numbe o obse a ions 252,887 252,887 252,887 252,887 252,887
Adjus ed R20.202 0.228 0.239 0.248 0.250
356
M.Ma eus, K.Neugebaue
Table 5 S a e-gua an eed loans
( i m-le el da a) – deciles.
This eg ession able p esen s
es ima ion esul s ob ained
by using a Linea P obabili y
Model. The dependen a iable
is a dummy ha is equal o one
o eligible i ms ha ecei ed
a go e nmen - gua an eed loan
du ing he Co id-19 pandemic,
and ze o o eligible i ms ha
did no . Va iables ha e been
no malised o ha e a mean o
ze o and a s anda d de ia ion
o one. The i s column o
his able co esponds o he
ou h column o Table4, ou
baseline speci ica ion. S anda d
e o s a e clus e ed a he sec o
le el. *, ** and *** deno e
signi icance a he 10%, 5% and
1% le el, espec i ely
Dependen a iable S a e-gua an ee dummy
(1) (2) (3)
P e ious c edi ela ion 0.176*** 0.174*** 0.174***
(0.008) (0.009) (0.008)
P e ious s a e gua an ee 0.190*** 0.188*** 0.188***
(0.007) (0.006) (0.006)
Asse s 0.098*** 0.099*** 0.098***
(0.013) (0.013) (0.012)
Cash/asse s −0.047*** −0.045***
(0.003) (0.003)
Cash/asse s—2nd decile 0.037***
(0.005)
Cash/asse s—3 d decile 0.041***
(0.004)
Cash/asse s—4 h decile 0.036***
(0.004)
Cash/asse s—5 h decile 0.025***
(0.004)
Cash/asse s—6 h decile 0.016***
(0.004)
Cash/asse s—7 h decile 0.004
(0.004)
Cash/asse s—8 h decile −0.002
(0.004)
Cash/asse s—9 h decile −0.012**
(0.004)
Cash/asse s—10 h decile −0.010***
(0.003)
EBITDA/asse s 0.005 0.005 −0.003*
(0.004) (0.004) (0.001)
Le e age 0.107*** 0.105***
(0.012) (0.011)
Le e age—2nd decile 0.008**
(0.003)
Le e age—3 d decile 0.020***
(0.004)
Le e age—4 h decile 0.034***
(0.004)
Le e age—5 h decile 0.046***
(0.005)
Le e age—6 h decile 0.064***
(0.005)
Le e age—7 h decile 0.078***
(0.006)
357
S ayin’ ali e? Go e nmen suppo measu es inPo ugal du ing…
p ocess o a gua an ee be o e would be expec ed o ind i easie o apply o a
new loan wi h a s a e gua an ee du ing he pandemic.
Looking a he o he i m-le el a iables, he size o he i m has also played an
impo an ole in ge ing a s a e-gua an eed loan. The espec i e coe icien en e s
wi h a posi i e sign and is highly s a is ically signi ican , indica ing ha la ge i ms
( ha ul illed he eligibili y c i e ia) we e mo e likely o ecei e a s a e- gua an eed
loan han smalle i ms. Fi ms wi h la ge cash holdings we e less likely o ecei e
a loan wi h a s a e gua an ee, while mo e le e aged i ms we e mo e likely o ha e
pa icipa ed in his p og amme. These esul s a e also in line wi h economic in ui-
ion. On he one hand, i ms wi h mo e cash a hand a e less likely o need u he
inancing. In ac , when we look a he deciles o he cash- o- asse s dis ibu ion
(Table5), we obse e i is no mono onic, i.e., he nega i e ela ion be ween cash-
o-asse s and s a e gua an ees is only isible o i ms wi h a high le el o liquid-
i y (cash- o-asse s a io abo e he 7 h decile). The le el o capi alisa ion and liquid-
i y o Po uguese SMEs has inc eased signi ican ly since he Eu opean so e eign
deb c isis, mos ly h ough e ained ea nings. This end has con inued du ing he
pandemic, hus possibly educing he need o ex e nal unding. On he o he hand,
mos indeb ed i ms a e mo e likely o be liquidi y cons ained due o he equen
need o e inance and pay back hei deb . Indeed, he ela ion be ween le e age and
he ake-up o s a e gua an ees seems o be mono onic, i.e., an inc ease in he decile
o le e age is associa ed wi h a highe p obabili y o accessing a s a e-gua an eed
loan. This holds ue up un il he 8 h decile, a e which he e ec le els ou .
Table 5 (con inued) Dependen a iable S a e-gua an ee dummy
(1) (2) (3)
Le e age—8 h decile 0.086***
(0.007)
Le e age—9 h decile 0.082***
(0.008)
Le e age—10 h decile 0.085***
(0.011)
P obabili y o de aul −0.047*** −0.044*** −0.045***
(0.006) (0.006) (0.007)
Zombie −0.026*** −0.026*** −0.028***
(0.005) (0.004) (0.004)
Fixed e ec s
Region NO NO NO
Sec o NO NO NO
Region-Sec o YES YES YES
Numbe o obse a ions 252,887 252,887 252,887
Adjus ed R20.248 0.250 0.247
358
M.Ma eus, K.Neugebaue
Las ly—and mos impo an ly in he con ex o ou analysis—we look a he c ed-
i wo hiness o he i ms ecei ing s a e-gua an eed loans using wo di e en indica-
o s: a i m’s p obabili y o de aul and he uzzy zombie indica o . Table4 shows
ha bo h c edi - isk- ela ed coe icien s a e nega i e and highly s a is ically signi i-
can , indica ing ha highe - isk i ms, i.e., i ms wi h a highe p obabili y o de aul
and i ms wi h a highe le el o zombieness, we e less likely o ecei e a s a e-gua -
an eed loan. I should be no ed ha al hough bo h a iables a e used as p oxies o
he c edi wo hiness o a i m, he p obabili y o de aul and he le el o zombieness
o a i m a e no qui e he same. In ac , bo h a iables a e only e y weakly co e-
la ed in ou sample.
Table 6 S a e-gua an eed loans ( i m-le el da a)— i m size classes. This eg ession able p esen s es i-
ma ion esul s ob ained by using a Linea P obabili y Model. The dependen a iable is a dummy ha
is equal o one o eligible i ms ha ecei ed a go e nmen -gua an eed loan du ing he Co id-19 pan-
demic, and ze o o eligible i ms ha did no . Size ca ego ies a e de ined acco ding o he Commission
Recommenda ion 2003/361/EC o 6 May 2003. Mic o i ms: numbe o employees < 10, u no e and/
o annual balance-shee o al ≤ 2 million eu os. Small i ms: numbe o employees < 50, u no e and/
o annual balance- shee o al no ≤ 10 million eu os. Medium-sized i ms: numbe o employees < 250,
u no e ≤ 50 million eu os and/o annual balance-shee o al ≤ 43 million eu os. La ge co po a ions:
emaining cases. Va iables ha e been no malised o ha e a mean o ze o and a s anda d de ia ion o one.
The i s column o his able co esponds o he ou h column o Table4, ou baseline speci ica ion.
S anda d e o s a e clus e ed a he sec o le el. *, ** and *** deno e signi icance a he 10%, 5% and 1%
le el, espec i ely
Dependen a iable S a e-gua an ee dummy
All i ms Mi co Small Medium La ge
P e ious c edi ela ion 0.176***
(0.008)
0.187***
(0.01)
0.139***
(0.006)
0.121***
(0.015)
0.086***
(0.003)
P e ious s a e gua an ee 0.190***
(0.007)
0.157***
(0.006)
0.194***
(0.007)
0.256***
(0.02)
0.054
(0.048)
Asse s 0.098***
(0.013)
0.042***
(0.01)
0.056***
(0.013)
−0.003
(0.025)
−0.073***
(0.005)
Cash/asse s −0.047***
(0.003)
−0.046***
(0.003)
−0.091***
(0.007)
−0.075***
(0.015)
−0.019***
(0.002)
EBITDA/asse s 0.005
(0.004)
0.006
(0.004)
0.010*
(0.005)
−0.026
(0.019)
−0.005***
(0.001)
Le e age 0.107***
(0.012)
0.100***
(0.012)
0.134***
(0.007)
0.066***
(0.017)
0.034***
(0.003)
P obabili y o de aul −0.047***
(0.006)
−0.032***
(0.005)
−0.034***
(0.006)
−0.038*
(0.015)
−0.031***
(0.007)
Zombie −0.026***
(0.005)
−0.039***
(0.004)
0.010
(0.007)
0.022
(0.018)
−0.010**
(0.003)
Fixed e ec s
Region NO NO NO NO NO
Sec o NO NO NO NO NO
Region-Sec o YES YES YES YES YES
Numbe o obse a ions 252,887 211,701 32,519 4,607 436
Adjus ed R20.248 0.188 0.242 0.335 0.88
365
S ayin’ ali e? Go e nmen suppo measu es inPo ugal du ing…
Table 8 S a e-gua an eed loans (loan-le el da a) – Loan amoun / o al asse s. This eg ession able p e-
sen s es ima ion esul s o eg essions, whe e he dependen a iable in Panel A is he loan amoun o
loans wi h a s a e gua an ee, scaled by he p e-Co id o al asse o he i m. Panel B p esen s he esul s
o loans wi hou a s a e gua an ee. Va iables ha e been no malised o ha e a mean o ze o and a s and-
a d de ia ion o one. S anda d e o s a e clus e ed a he sec o le el. *, ** and *** deno e signi icance a
he 10%, 5% and 1% le el, espec i ely
Panel A
Dependen a iable Loan/asse s o loans wi h a s a e gua an ee
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
P e ious c edi ela ion −0.075***
(0.006)
−0.196***
(0.009)
−0.075***
(0.006)
−0.075***
(0.006)
−0.076***
(0.006)
−0.075***
(0.006)
P e ious s a e gua -
an ee
−0.041***
(0.005)
−0.184***
(0.012)
−0.038***
(0.005)
−0.028***
(0.004)
−0.025***
(0.004)
−0.028***
(0.004)
Asse s −0.557***
(0.021)
−0.563***
(0.021)
−0.613***
(0.022)
−0.613***
(0.022)
−0.618***
(0.023)
Cash/asse s 0.090***
(0.006)
0.089***
(0.006)
0.068***
(0.005)
0.068***
(0.005)
0.072***
(0.005)
EBITDA/asse s 0.035***
(0.01)
0.036***
(0.01)
0.026**
(0.01)
0.027**
(0.01)
0.032**
(0.01)
Le e age 0.099***
(0.008)
0.100***
(0.008)
0.094***
(0.007)
0.093***
(0.007)
0.090***
(0.007)
P obabili y o de aul −0.067***
(0.01)
−0.067***
(0.009)
−0.079***
(0.009)
−0.079***
(0.009)
−0.082***
(0.009)
Zombie −0.045***
(0.006)
−0.046***
(0.006)
−0.038***
(0.005)
−0.038***
(0.005)
Loan ma u i y (yea s) 0.077***
(0.006)
0.123***
(0.007)
0.073***
(0.006)
0.087***
(0.005)
0.088***
(0.005)
0.087***
(0.005)
Gua an ee (o he han
s a e)
−0.015***
(0.004)
−0.012*
(0.006)
−0.015**
(0.005)
−0.009*
(0.004)
−0.005
(0.004)
−0.005
(0.004)
Bank asse s −0.025***
(0.007)
0.022***
(0.005)
0.029***
(0.005)
Bank own unds a io −0.022**
(0.008)
0.011
(0.006)
0.009
(0.005)
Bank NPL a io −0.021
(0.013)
0.001
(0.009)
0.009
(0.008)
Bank ROA 0.021
(0.013)
−0.032***
(0.009)
−0.019*
(0.008)
In e bank unding /
Asse s
−0.021**
(0.007)
−0.009
(0.006)
−0.003
(0.005)
Nega i e GVA −0.007
(0.004)
Fixed e ec s
Region YES YES YES NO NO NO
Sec o NO NO NO NO NO NO
Region-Sec o NO NO NO YES YES YES
Bank NO NO NO NO YES YES
Numbe o obse a ions 60,032 60,032 60,032 60,032 60,032 60,032
Adjus ed R20.45 0.141 0.452 0.485 0.486 0.485

366
M.Ma eus, K.Neugebaue
Table 8 (con inued)
Panel B
Dependen a iable Loan/asse s o loans wi hou a s a e gua an ee
(7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
P e ious c edi ela ion −0.164***
(0.006)
−0.227***
(0.008)
−0.162***
(0.006)
−0.143***
(0.006)
−0.144***
(0.006)
−0.143***
(0.006)
P e ious s a e gua -
an ee
−0.060***
(0.008)
−0.113***
(0.011)
−0.061***
(0.008)
−0.050***
(0.009)
−0.045***
(0.009)
−0.044***
(0.009)
Asse s −0.325***
(0.018)
−0.329***
(0.017)
−0.419***
(0.031)
−0.431***
(0.031)
−0.434***
(0.031)
Cash/asse s 0.063***
(0.007)
0.063***
(0.006)
0.054***
(0.006)
0.054***
(0.006)
0.057***
(0.006)
EBITDA/asse s 0.041**
(0.014)
0.042**
(0.014)
0.037**
(0.014)
0.037*
(0.015)
0.043**
(0.016)
Le e age 0.041***
(0.008)
0.042***
(0.008)
0.035***
(0.009)
0.034***
(0.009)
0.036***
(0.009)
P obabili y o de aul −0.033***
(0.008)
−0.031***
(0.008)
−0.035***
(0.01)
−0.037***
(0.011)
−0.041***
(0.011)
Zombie −0.017*
(0.007)
−0.017**
(0.007)
−0.015
(0.008)
−0.018*
(0.007)
Loan ma u i y (yea s) 0.330***
(0.013)
0.365***
(0.014)
0.330***
(0.013)
0.332***
(0.015)
0.339***
(0.016)
0.339***
(0.016)
Gua an ee (o he han
s a e)
0.049***
(0.007)
0.121***
(0.008)
0.054***
(0.007)
0.045***
(0.006)
0.045***
(0.006)
0.045***
(0.006)
Bank asse s 0.019*
(0.008)
0.006
(0.01)
0.02
(0.012)
Bank own unds a io 0.005
(0.004)
0.028*
(0.011)
0.023*
(0.01)
Bank NPL a io −0.005
(0.006)
−0.026*
(0.011)
−0.015
(0.012)
Bank ROA 0.001
(0.008)
−0.048***
(0.008)
−0.039***
(0.008)
In e bank unding /
Asse s
−0.042***
(0.012)
0.000
(0.016)
−0.013
(0.02)
Nega i e GVA 0.023***
(0.006)
Fixed e ec s
Region YES YES YES NO NO NO
Sec o NO NO NO NO NO NO
Region-Sec o NO NO NO YES YES YES
Bank NO NO NO NO YES YES
Numbe o obse a-
ions
229,003 229,003 229,003 229,003 229,003 229,003
Adjus ed R20.415 0.311 0.416 0.479 0.487 0.487
367
S ayin’ ali e? Go e nmen suppo measu es inPo ugal du ing…
mo a o ium as dependen a iable. The con ol g oup consis s o i ms whose loans
we e eligible o he mo a o ium bu which decided no o make use o i . We include
he same i m-le el explana o y a iables used in he p e ious speci ica ions. We do
no include bank-le el a iables in his se up, as access o he mo a o ium was no a
choice o he banks bu i ms could simply op o i i hei loans we e eligible.
Resul s o he mo a o ium up ake a e p esen ed in Table 9. The es ima es
p esen ed in column (1) indica e ha being in one o he mos a ec ed sec o s
inc eases i ms’ p obabili y o accessing he mo a o ium, compa ed o i ms ope -
a ing in less a ec ed sec o s, by 11 pe cen age poin s, i.e., he e is a 32% highe
p obabili y compa ed wi h he mean ake-up a e o 35%. In e es ingly, i ms ha
bene i ed om a s a e-gua an eed loan p io o Co id-19 pandemic we e no only
mo e likely o access he Co id- ela ed s a e gua an ees, as seen ea lie , bu hey
we e also mo e likely o make use o he public mo a o ium.
Table 9 Mo a o ium ( i m-le el da a) – dummy. This eg ession able p esen s es ima ion esul s
ob ained by using a Linea P obabili y Model. The dependen a iable is a dummy ha is equal o one
o eligible i ms ha wen unde he mo a o ium du ing he Co id-19 pandemic, and ze o o eligible
i ms ha did no . Va iables ha e been no malised o ha e a mean o ze o and a s anda d de ia ion o
one. S anda d e o s a e clus e ed a he sec o le el. *, ** and *** deno e signi icance a he 10%, 5%
and 1% le el, espec i ely
Dependen a iable Mo a o ium dummy
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Mos a ec ed sec o 0.106***
(0.023)
P e ious s a e gua an ee 0.188***
(0.005)
0.186***
(0.005)
0.186***
(0.005)
0.186***
(0.005)
Asse s 0.067***
(0.013)
0.104***
(0.006)
0.106***
(0.007)
0.108***
(0.007)
Cash/asse s −0.111***
(0.004)
−0.112***
(0.004)
−0.111***
(0.004)
−0.116***
(0.004)
EBITDA/asse s 0.005**
(0.002)
0.005**
(0.002)
0.006***
(0.002)
0.005**
(0.002)
Le e age 0.002
(0.002)
0.005**
(0.002)
0.005**
(0.002)
0.005**
(0.002)
P obabili y o de aul 0.052***
(0.009)
0.047***
(0.005)
0.046***
(0.005)
0.064***
(0.005)
Zombie 0.032***
(0.007)
0.036***
(0.004)
0.036***
(0.004)
Nega i e GVA −0.027***
(0.005)
Fixed e ec s
Region YES YES NO NO
Sec o NO YES NO NO
Region-Sec o NO NO YES YES
Numbe o obse a ions 138,997 138,997 138,997 138,997
Adjus ed R20.081 0.141 0.146 0.146
368
M.Ma eus, K.Neugebaue
Looking a he i m-le el a iables, we obse e ha la ge i ms we e mo e
likely o make use o he public mo a o ium, while i ms wi h mo e cash a hand
we e less likely o do so. Finally, when we look a he isk o he i ms wi h loans
unde he mo a o ium, we obse e a signi ican di e ence ela i e o i ms apply-
ing o s a e- gua an eed loans. Resul s in Table9 show ha bo h quali y- ela ed
coe icien s a e now posi i e, indica ing ha highe - isk i ms, i.e., i ms wi h a
highe p obabili y o de aul and i ms wi h a highe le el o zombieness, we e
mo e likely o apply o he mo a o ium. These esul s show ha he mo a o ium
has bene i ed ela i ely iskie i ms, in con as wi h wha was obse ed o s a e
gua an ees. The s a is ical signi icance and magni ude o he coe icien s emain
by and la ge unchanged when we conside he sha e o each i m’s bank loans
unde he mo a o ium as ou dependen a iable ins ead o he simple mo a o ium
dummy a iable (Table10).
Table 10 Mo a o ium ( i m-le el da a) – sha e. This eg ession able p esen s es ima ion esul s ob ained
om eg essions whe e he dependen a iable is he sha e o he loan amoun o eligible i ms ha wen
unde he mo a o ium du ing he Co id-19 pandemic. Va iables ha e been no malised o ha e a mean
o ze o and a s anda d de ia ion o one. S anda d e o s a e clus e ed a he sec o le el. *, ** and ***
deno e signi icance a he 10%, 5% and 1% le el, espec i ely
Dependen a iable Mo a o ium dummy
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Mos a ec ed sec o 0.112***
(0.025)
P e ious s a e gua an ee 0.138***
(0.006)
0.141***
(0.005)
0.142***
(0.005)
0.142***
(0.005)
Asse s 0.025
(0.015)
0.062***
(0.006)
0.064***
(0.007)
0.065***
(0.006)
Cash/asse s −0.100***
(0.005)
−0.100***
(0.004)
−0.099***
(0.004)
−0.103***
(0.004)
EBITDA/asse s 0.006***
(0.002)
0.006**
(0.002)
0.007***
(0.002)
0.006***
(0.002)
Le e age 0.001
(0.003)
0.003
(0.002)
0.003
(0.002)
0.004
(0.002)
P obabili y o de aul 0.052***
(0.01)
0.047***
(0.005)
0.046***
(0.005)
0.058***
(0.005)
Zombie 0.022**
(0.007)
0.027***
(0.004)
0.028***
(0.004)
Nega i e GVA −0.016**
(0.005)
Fixed e ec s
Region YES YES NO NO
Sec o NO YES NO NO
Region-Sec o NO NO YES YES
Numbe o obse a ions 138,997 138,997 138,997 138,997
Adjus ed R20.057 0.126 0.13 0.13
369
S ayin’ ali e? Go e nmen suppo measu es inPo ugal du ing…
5 Conclusion
C edi gua an ees and c edi mo a o ia we e widely used wo ldwide o suppo busi-
nesses a ec ed by he Co id-19 pandemic. While hese measu es ha e been key o
s abilising he economy in he sho - un, suppo ing s uggling i ms in a con ex o
high le els o unce ain y and a sha p de e io a ion o economic agen s’ con idence,
he medium- o long- e m impac o hese measu es emains an open ques ion.
Based on he Po uguese expe ience, we assess he isk p o ile o i ms accessing he
s a e gua an ees and he mo a o ium.
Ou pape has h ee main indings.
Fi s , we ind ha gua an eed loans wen mos ly o i ms ope a ing in he sec o s
mos se e ely hi by he pandemic and o i ms ha had a c edi ela ion and/o ben-
e i ed om a s a e gua an ee be o e he onse o he Co id-19 pandemic.
Second, he Po uguese public gua an ee scheme seems o ha e mainly suppo ed
lowe -c edi - isk i ms, i.e., hose wi h a lowe p obabili y o de aul and a lowe
le el o zombieness. Ou esul s con as wi h he esul s ob ained o I aly by Co e
and De Ma co (2024), whe e iskie i ms we e mo e likely o pa icipa e in he I al-
ian public gua an ee scheme. Addi ionally, in he case o Po ugal, iskie i ms paid
highe in e es a es and ob ained smalle gua an eed loans han mo e iable i ms.
Thi d, in con as o he s a e gua an ees, ou esul s show ha iskie i ms we e
mo e likely o apply o he public mo a o ium.
O e all, ou esul s sugges ha s a e-gua an eed loans we e mos ly g an ed o
i ms ha had a lowe le el o isk be o e he onse o he Co id-19 pandemic. In
his sense, he s ic access equi emen s o he Po uguese public gua an ee scheme
seem o ha e mi iga ed a signi ican inc ease in iskie lending, while suppo ing
hose sec o s mos a ec ed by he pandemic. On he o he hand, ou esul s also
show ha iskie i ms ha e bene i ed ela i ely mo e om he mo a o ium.
Going o wa d, he inc ease in he le el o zombie ica ion o Po uguese i ms
will no only depend on hei p e-Co id isk le el bu also on hei abili y o eco e
om his shock now ha he pandemic has subsided. Ul ima ely, an inc ease in he
le el o zombie ica ion o he Po uguese economy would ha e an impac on he
banking sec o as well, as hese i ms migh de aul on hei loans, he eby leading
o an inc ease in he le el o non-pe o ming loans in he Po uguese banking sec o .
Mo e esea ch on ha will be needed in he u u e.
Appendix
Calcula ing hequasi‑zombie indica o (based onMinga elli e al. (2022))
The uzzy zombie de ini ion can be o malised as ollows. Le
V(i)
y
be a ec o such
ha
V(i)
y
=(ROA
(i)
y
,NIR
(i)
y
,DSC
(i)
y
−5
%)
370
M.Ma eus, K.Neugebaue
wi h
ROA(i)
y
= e u n on asse s o i m i in yea y,
NIR(i)
y
= ne in es men a io o i m i in yea y,
DSC(i)
y
= deb se ice capaci y o i m i in yea y.
In he bina y se up by S o z e al. (2017), i m i is de ined as a zombie i i s
ROA < 0, NIR < 0, and DSC < 5% o Y = 2 consecu i e yea s. This can be w i en as
a simple geome ic mean:
Fo he uzzy e sion o he zombie, we de ine a ke nel
k(x)
as
whe e
x
≡ median(x). The geome ic mean hus becomes
We adap he S o z e . al. (2017) zombie de ini ion in o de o a i e a a con inu-
ous ( uzzy) de ini ion, ollowing he same easoning o Minga elli e al. (2022).
As in S o z e . al. (2017), we exclude ce ain (s uc u ally di e en ) sec o s: p i-
ma y sec o (NACE 01–09), inancial sec o (NACE 64–66), public adminis a ion
(NACE 84), ac i i ies o households (NACE 97–98), ex a e i o ial o ganisa ions
(NACE 99). Fi ms wi h nega i e o al asse s, nega i e liabili ies o nega i e s ock
o capi al12 we e also excluded. Con a y o S o z e . al. (2017), we keep lis ed and
la ge i ms in he sample.
Inac i e i ms we e also d opped om ou sample. A i m is conside ed inac i e
i : a) hei asse s and liabili ies do no change in wo consecu i e yea s, b) i ms’
EBITDA is equal o ze o, and c) he i m is inac i e in hei las yea in he sample.
Finally, we in e pola e alues o a single missing yea in be ween wo yea s o
which da a exis s (simple a e age) o asse s, liabili ies, EBITDA, s ock o capi al,
cash holdings, equi y and ne income.
When one o he indica o s ha a e equi ed o classi y a i m as zombie is miss-
ing bu one o he o he indica o s is a ailable and ails he zombie h eshold, we
classi y he i m as a non-zombie. I a i m is no a zombie in yea -1, we assume i
is also no a zombie in yea (by de ini ion) i i has no da a a ailable.
When es ima ing he uzzy zombie, he median o each a iable (ne in es men ,
ROA and DSC) is being es ima ed based only on posi i e alues
(
x≡median(x)
+).
Z
i,y=⎛
⎜
⎜
⎝
Y−1
�
w=0
�
xy∈V(i)
y
𝟙xy−w
<0⎞
⎟
⎟
⎠
1
Y�V
�
k
(x)=𝟙x<0+
x−x
x
𝟙0≤x<
x
Z
∗
i,y=⎛
⎜
⎜
⎝
Y−1
�
w=0
�
x
y
∈V(i)
y
k(xy−w)⎞
⎟
⎟
⎠
1
Y�V
�
12 Calcula ed as he book alue o each i m’s angible and in angible asse s.

371
S ayin’ ali e? Go e nmen suppo measu es inPo ugal du ing…
This assump ion di e s om Minga elli e al. (2022), who also conside he ze os
o es ima e he median. Ou op ion is explained by he la ge numbe o i ms in Po -
ugal wi h ze o ne in es men ha would make he median o in es men equal o 0
(i he ze o was included in he calcula ion). The ze os we e also excluded om he
calcula ion o he median o o he a iables in o de o be aligned wi h he ea men
o in es men .
Acknowledgemen s We hank Ana C is ina Leal, Inês D umond, Ca los San os, Tiago Pinhei o, and wo
anonymous e e ees o help ul commen s and sugges ions. We a e g a e ul o Luca Minga elli, Jonas
Wendelbo n, Maciej G odzicki, and Ma ina Spaggia i o sha ing hei expe ise wi h us. We g a e ully
acknowledge he suppo om Banco de Po ugal’s da a cen e BPLIM.The iews exp essed in his a i-
cle a e hose o he au ho s and do no necessa ily e lec he iews o Banco de Po ugal, heEu osys-
emo he Eu opean Sys emic Risk Boa d. Any e o s and mis akes a e ou s.
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