Financial projection of the basic pension under selective eligibility criteria

Kim, Dohun
A icle
Financial p ojec ion o he basic pension unde selec i e
eligibili y c i e ia
KDI Jou nal o Economic Policy
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Ko ea De elopmen Ins i u e (KDI), Sejong
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Kim, Dohun (2025) : Financial p ojec ion o he basic pension unde selec i e
eligibili y c i e ia, KDI Jou nal o Economic Policy, ISSN 2586-4130, Ko ea De elopmen Ins i u e
(KDI), Sejong, Vol. 47, Iss. 1, pp. 95-134,
h ps://doi.o g/10.23895/kdijep.2025.47.1.95
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KDI Jou nal o Economic Policy 2025, 47(1):95-134
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95
Financial P ojec ion o he Basic Pension unde
Selec i e Eligibili y C i e ia†
By D
OHUN
K
IM
*
This s udy conduc s a inancial p ojec ion o he basic pension in
Ko ea, which p o ides cash assis ance o he bo om 70% o elde ly
indi iduals aged 65 and o e . The p ojec ion is ca ied ou unde bo h
expansion and selec i e eligibili y c i e ia, wi h pa icula emphasis
on he la e . Speci ically, he s udy examines wo well-discussed
selec i e eligibili y c i e ia: 1) ixing he eligibili y h eshold a he
2024 alue and adjus ing i acco ding o he in la ion a e, and 2)
linking he eligibili y h eshold o he median household income igu e.
To es ima e he numbe o ecipien s unde hese selec i e scena ios,
he s udy p ojec s he u u e income e olu ion o he elde ly, assuming
he con inua ion o pas income ends. Using he inancial model o
he basic pension de eloped by Shin and Kim (2021), he s udy inds
ha o al iscal spending could be educed by 22% unde he i s
selec i e scena io and by 17% unde he second selec i e scena io,
ela i e o he cu en sys em, in eal e ms be ween 2024 and 2070.
Wi h hese iscal sa ings, he s udy concludes ha he ull bene i
amoun could be inc eased om he cu en le el o 334,810 won o
435,000 won unde he i s scena io and o 405,000 won unde he
second scena io by 2025.
Key Wo d: Basic Pension, Selec i e Eligibili y C i e ia, Pension
Re o m, Elde ly Po e y, Financial Model o Basic
Pension
JEL Code: H53, H55, I31, J10
* Associa e Fellow, Ko ea De elopmen Ins i u e (E-mail: dohunkim@kdi. e.k )
* Recei ed: 2024. 8. 30
* Re e ee P ocess S a ed: 2024. 9. 10
* Re e ee Repo s Comple ed: 2024. 10. 22
† This pape is an ex ension o Chap e s 2 om KangKoo Lee, DoHun Kim and Seung-Ryoung Shin, 2023,
Re om Measu es o Enhancing he Sus ainabili y o he Public Pension Sys em, Policy Repo 2023-08, Ko ea
De elopmen Ins i u e (in Ko ean). I since ely exp ess my g a i ude o YongOk Choi, YoungWook Lee, WooRim
Kim and wo anonymous e e ees o hei help ul commen s and sugges ions. I am also g a e ul o SeokHyun Choo
o his excellen esea ch assis ance. All emaining e o s a e solely my esponsibili y.
96 KDI Jou nal o Economic Policy FEBRUARY 2025
I. In oduc ion
l hough Ko ea has expe ienced apid economic g ow h o e he pas ew
decades, he po e y a e among he elde ly anks a he highes le el among
OECD coun ies. One o he main easons o his high po e y a e can be a ibu ed
o he imma u e na ional pension sys em o Ko ea, which was in oduced only in
1988. Due o he sho his o y o he pension sys em, olde gene a ions did no ha e
enough ime o he na ional pension bene i o ma u e and we e unable o p epa e
o an adequa e amoun o e i emen income. To ackle he high po e y a e o he
elde ly, he go e nmen implemen ed a basic pension, a non-con ibu o y pension
sys em ha p o ides mon hly cash paymen s o elde ly indi iduals aged 65 and
abo e whose ecognized amoun o income (he ea e , RAI) alls below he op 70%
o hei age g oup.1
F om 2014 o 2024, he maximum bene i amoun o he basic pension has
inc eased by nea ly 62%, om 200,000 won o 334,810 won. Mo eo e , due o he
aging popula ion, he numbe o basic pension ecipien s has inc eased by 45%, om
app oxima ely 435,000 o nea ly 624,000 ecipien s. As bo h he bene i amoun and
he size o he elde ly popula ion aged 65 and abo e ha e inc eased signi ican ly, he
expendi u e on he basic pension has also isen subs an ially. As o 2023, he basic
pension sys em has become one o he la ges wel a e p og ams in Ko ea, accoun ing
o 1% o GDP, and i is p ojec ed o inc ease e en u he .
Recen ly, he cu en selec ion c i e ia o he basic pension, which a ge s he
poo es 70% o he elde ly aged 65 and abo e, ha e ecei ed c i icism o no being
a cos -e ec i e way o add ess he high po e y a e among he elde ly. In pa icula ,
he e is no clea a ionale behind why he basic pension should a ge 70% o he
elde ly popula ion despi e he ac ha he economic condi ion o he new elde ly
gene a ion eaching age 65 has imp o ed signi ican ly. Fo ins ance, while he
bo om 70% h eshold income amoun ha de e mines he eligibili y o he basic
pension was only 56% o he median income in 2015, i inc eased o 94% o he
median income by 2023, implying ha he elde ly co e ed by he basic pension
sys em ha e become mo e a luen ela i e o he pas .
The OECD pension epo on Ko ea sugges ed a na owing down o basic pension
ecipien s and an inc ease he bene i amoun o ackle he po e y a e o he elde ly
mo e e ec i ely (OECD, 2022). The Basic Pension Adequacy E alua ion
Commi ee, an ad iso y body o he Minis e o Heal h and Wel a e, also sugges ed
ha he cu en selec ion c i e ia be ans o med om a a ge popula ion me hod o
absolu e c i e ia so ha he numbe o ecipien s can g adually decline as he
economic condi ion o he new elde ly gene a ion imp o es ela i e o he o e all
popula ion. The e ha e been se e al speci ic p oposals by di e en esea che s o
make he selec ion c i e ia mo e selec i e. Fo ins ance, Yun (2023) sugges ed ixing
he eligibili y h eshold amoun a he yea o 2023 and adjus ing i acco ding o he
1The “Recognized Amoun o Income” is he weigh ed a e age o a ious mon hly income sou ces and asse s
con e ed in o a mon hly income alue, which is hen used o de e mine eligibili y o he basic pension.
A
VOL. 47 NO. 1 Financial P ojec ion o he Basic Pension unde Selec i e Eligibili y C i e ia 97
in la ion a e. O he s sugges ed se ing he eligibili y h eshold line ela i e o he
median income (Basic Pension Adequacy E alua ion Commi ee, 2023).
Despi e he impo ance o conduc ing inancial p ojec ions based on selec i e
scena ios, he e has been limi ed esea ch on his subjec . While NABO (2018;
2023a) conside s a selec i e scena io in which he bene i amoun a ies ac oss
di e en RAI le els among he elde ly, i does no pe o m a inancial p ojec ion o
a scena io in which he a ge g oup is g adually na owed. Al hough Ryu e al.
(2022) does conside a scena io in which he a ge g oup is g adually educed, he
size o he a ge g oup is a i icially adjus ed om 70% o 30%. Howe e , unde he
a o emen ioned selec i e eligibili y c i e ia, he numbe o ecipien s is de e mined
by he e olu ion o he RAI dis ibu ion among he elde ly and he median household
income. The e o e, i is c ucial o compu e he size o he ecipien g oup wi hin he
model based on his mechanism. One app oach is o o ecas he e olu ion o bo h
he RAI dis ibu ion and median household income.
In his s udy, u ilizing he inancial p ojec ion model o basic pension de eloped
by he Shin and Kim (2021), I conduc a inancial p ojec ion unde bo h expansion
scena ios, in which he bene i amoun and size o he ecipien pool inc ease ela i e
o he base case and selec i e scena ios in which he numbe o ecipien s is na owed
down. In pa icula , his s udy ocuses on wo well-discussed selec i e scena ios: 1)
ixing he eligibili y h eshold amoun a he yea o 2024, and adjus ing i acco ding
o he in la ion a e (selec i e scena io 1), and 2) linking he eligibili y h eshold a
he median household income (selec i e scena io 2).2 These selec ion scena ios
ha e s eng h in ha as he economic condi ion o u u e gene a ions imp o es, he
numbe o ecipien s will g adually dec ease. Fu he mo e, exis ing ecipien s will
con inue o ecei e bene i s, he e o e acing less poli ical esis ance as opposed o
i he numbe o ecipien s was d ama ically educed.
This s udy makes a s ong con ibu ion o he li e a u e by linking he selec ion
c i e ia o basic pension eligibili y o he e olu ion o he RAI dis ibu ion and
median household income. To achie e his, i p ojec s he u u e dis ibu ion o he
RAI assuming ha pas ends will con inue in o he u u e. Speci ically, i calcula es
he RAI o each pe cen ile o he elde ly popula ion om 2014 o 2021 using da a
om he Na ional Su ey o Tax and Bene i (NaSTaB) and p edic s he u u e
e olu ion o he RAI o each pe cen ile by means o linea p ojec ion. Simila ly, he
u u e e olu ion o median household income is o ecas ed based on he assump ion
ha his o ical ends in he median income will pe sis . This in o ma ion is hen used
o es ima e he p opo ion o ecipien s unde selec i e scena ios, se ing as inpu
o he basic pension model de eloped by Shin and Kim (2021) o make inancial
p ojec ions o expendi u es.
The indings demons a e ha unde he cu en sys em, he o al accumula ed
iscal expendi u e be ween 2024 and 2070 amoun s o 1,891 illion won in eal
e ms. Unde he expansion scena io, whe e he bene i amoun inc eases om
334,810 won o 400,000 won, he o al accumula ed iscal expendi u e ises o 2,236
illion won, which is 18% highe han ha o he cu en sys em. Mo eo e , unde
2The eligibili y h eshold o a single household is 2.13 million won, and o couple households, i is 3.408
million won in 2024. In his s udy, as will be explained in he main sec ion, he eligibili y h eshold o couple
households is used o p ojec he size o ecipien s unde selec i e scena ios.
98 KDI Jou nal o Economic Policy FEBRUARY 2025
he expansion scena io, whe e he eligibili y c i e ia a e expanded o include all
elde ly indi iduals on op o he inc ease in he bene i amoun om 334,810 won o
400,000 won, he o al accumula ed iscal expendi u e ises o 3,191 illion won,
which is 69% highe han ha o he cu en sys em. On he o he hand, unde he
selec i e scena ios, as he p opo ion o ecipien s g adually declines om 70% o
nea ly 50% o elde ly indi iduals aged 65 and abo e be ween 2024 and 2070, he
o al accumula ed iscal expendi u e also dec eases signi ican ly. Speci ically, he
o al accumula ed iscal expendi u e declines by 22% ela i e o he cu en sys em
unde selec i e scena io 1 and by 17% unde selec i e scena io 2. U ilizing he
sa ings om each selec i e scena io, his s udy demons a es ha he ull bene i
amoun o he basic pension can be inc eased o 435,000 won and o 405,000 won in
2025 unde selec i e scena ios 1 and 2, espec i ely, wi hou incu ing addi ional
iscal spending compa ed o he cu en sys em. These esul s indica e ha
implemen ing selec i e eligibili y c i e ia can p o ide he go e nmen wi h he
inancial lexibili y o inc ease bene i amoun s by speci ically a ge ing he poo e
g oup in ela i e e ms among he elde ly.
The pape is di ided as ollows: sec ion 2 p o ides an o e iew o he basic
pension, including he his o y o he ins i u ion and de ailed in o ma ion pe aining
o he selec i e eligibili y c i e ia. Sec ion 3 explains he o ecas model o he basic
pension and he me hod used o o ecas he u u e dis ibu ion o he RAI using da a
om he Na ional Su ey o Tax and Bene i . Sec ion 4 p esen s he inancial
p ojec ion esul s o he basic pension unde bo h expansion and selec i e scena ios.
Finally, sec ion 5 discusses he esul s and concludes he pape .
II. O e iew o Basic Pension Income
A. His o y o he Basic Pension
Due o i s ela i ely sho his o y, he na ional pension sys em in Ko ea, which
was only in oduced in 1988 and la e ex ended o co e he en i e popula ion, has
no ye ma u ed enough o se e ully as an old-age income secu i y sys em. Gi en
ha a la ge po ion o he elde ly did no ha e su icien ime o con ibu e o he
sys em and secu e an adequa e pension, he go e nmen in oduced a cash assis ance
p og am in 1991 o supplemen he income o he poo elde ly in he o m o an old-
age allowance. Howe e , his p og am was c i icized o i s limi ed e ec i eness in
educing he high elde ly po e y a e due o he small bene i amoun s and es ic ed
a ge g oup.
In 2008, he go e nmen in oduced wha was e med he basic old-age pension
sys em, he p edecesso o he basic pension.3 I is a non-con ibu o y public pension
p og am ha p o ides mon hly cash assis ance o elde ly indi iduals whose RAI alls
wi hin he bo om 70% among hose aged 65 and o e . The bene i amoun was se
3The majo di e ence be ween he old-age pension and he basic pension in e ms o sys em ope a ion is ha ,
unde he o me , go e nmen had he disc e ion o educe he numbe o ecipien s based on budge cons ain s.

VOL. 47 NO. 1 Financial P ojec ion o he Basic Pension unde Selec i e Eligibili y C i e ia 99
o he 5% o he A alue, which is he a e age sala y o na ional pension con ibu o s
o e he las h ee yea s, and i included a 20% educ ion a e o he ma ied-couple
households. As o 2014, he bene i amoun was 99,100 won o single households
and 158,600 won o ma ied-couple households. I also in oduced an income-
e e se p e en ion- educ ion scheme which educes he basic amoun o p e en
cases in which a bene icia y’s income exceeds he income o non-bene icia ies a e
accoun ing o he basic pension.
The discussion on in oducing he basic pension sys em began due o g owing
social conce n o e elde ly po e y and gained momen um du ing he 18 h
p esiden ial elec ion when candida es p oposed in oducing he sys em o expand
income secu i y o he elde ly. As a esul , he basic pension sys em was in oduced
ollowing he enac men o he Basic Pension Ac , which expanded he exis ing basic
old-age pension sys em. While main aining he eligibili y c i e ia o elde ly
indi iduals aged 65 and o e whose RAI alls wi hin he bo om 70%, he basic
pension sys em u he enhanced old-age income secu i y by inc easing he ull
bene i amoun om 5% o 10% o he A alue. Consequen ly, he ull bene i amoun
inc eased o 200,000 won o single households and 160,000 won o ma ied-couple
households. While e aining he income- e e sal p e en ion- educ ion scheme, he
basic pension also in oduced a educ ion scheme in he bene i calcula ion o
ecipien s who concu en ly ecei e he na ional pension. The educ ion a e a ied
acco ding o he A alue o he na ional pension. The his o y o he basic pension is
summa ized in Table 1.
TABLE 1—HISTORY OF THE BASIC PENSION
Sys em Old-Age Allowance Senio Pension Basic Old-Age Pension Basic Pension
Yea o
Implemen a ion 1991 1998 2008 2014
Bene icia ies
Low-income senio s
aged 70 and abo e
→ senio s aged 65
and abo e who a e
eligible o
li elihood p o ec ion
Low-income senio s
aged 65 and abo e
Senio s aged 65 and
abo e in he bo om
70% income b acke
Senio s aged 65 and
abo e in he lowes
70% income b acke
Bene i
Amoun 35,000~50,000 won 20,000~50,000 won 5% o he A alue o
he Na ional Pension
10% o he A alue
o he Na ional
Pension
Reduc ion -
12.5% educ ion o
a couple wo
bene icia ies
20% educ ion o a
couple o wo
bene icia ies,
income- e e sal
p e en ion
adjus men
20% educ ion o a
couple o wo
bene icia ies,
income- e e sal
p e en ion
adjus men ,
educ ion linked o
he Na ional Pension
Bene i
Adjus men - -
Adjus ed acco ding
o he Na ional
Pension A alue
Linked o he
na ional consume
p ice index (CPI)
luc ua ion a e;
adequacy e alua ion
conduc ed e e y
i e yea s
Sou ce: NABO, “2018-2027 Es ima ion o he Expendi u e o he Basic Pension,” 2018, p.10.
100 KDI Jou nal o Economic Policy FEBRUARY 2025
TABLE 2—FORMULA FOR THE RAI CALCULATION
RAI = Income Assessmen Amoun 1) + Asse s Con e ed Income 2)
1) RAI = {0.7 * (Labo Income – Labo Income Deduc ion amoun ) + o he income*
*
The labo income deduc ion amoun is he amoun o income ha is deduc ed o ensu e ha wo k
mo i a ion is no hinde ed and i is based on he minimum income le el (1.8 million Ko ean won as o
2023).
**
O he income is he sum o business income, public ans e income, impu ed en income and p ope y
income, wi h an annual deduc ion o 40,000 won applied o in e es income included in p ope y income.
2) Asse -con e ed income = [{(gene al asse s – basic asse amoun *) + ( inancial asse s – 20 million won) –
liabili y}× income con e sion a e o asse s** ÷ 12] + P***
*
The basic asse amoun e e s o he minimum amoun equi ed o housing main enance (as o 2023,
me opoli an ci ies: 135 million won, medium-sized ci ies: 85 million won, u al a eas: 72.5 million won)
**
4% annual a e
***
alue o luxu y au omobiles (o e 3,000cc o o e 40 million won) and membe ship igh s
Sou ce: Minis y o Heal h and Wel a e, “2023 Basic Pension P og am Guidelines,” 2023.
The eligibili y c i e ia o he basic pension a e based on he elde ly whose RAI
alls below he 70 h pe cen ile among hose aged 65 and o e . Howe e , ci il
se an s and mili a y pension ecipien s, as well as hei spouses, a e excluded om
eligibili y. The RAI, which se es as he basis o de e mining eligibili y, is
calcula ed by summing he assessed income amoun , including labo , business, and
asse income, as well as he income-con e ed amoun s o asse s. The exac p ocess
o calcula ing he RAI is de ailed in Table 2. RAI amoun s a e calcula ed sepa a ely
o single-pe son households and ma ied-couple households.
Meanwhile, as he economic condi ions and na ional pension bene i s o he new
elde ly gene a ion ha e imp o ed, he eligibili y h eshold, which is se a he 70 h
pe cen ile o he RAI among hose aged 65 and o e , has con inued o inc ease, as
shown in Figu e 1. Fo ins ance, in 2014, he eligibili y h eshold o single-pe son
households was 870,000 won, and o ma ied-couple households, i was 1,392,000
won. By 2024, hese amoun s had inc eased o 1,392,000 won and 3,230,000 won,
espec i ely.
The ull basic pension amoun e e s o he maximum pension ha ecipien s can
ecei e i hey a e no subjec o any educ ion schemes, such as 1) a Na ional-
Pension-linked educ ion, 2) he income- e e sal p e en ion educ ion, and 3) a
spousal educ ion. The Na ional-Pension-linked educ ion applies o ecipien s who
ecei e a na ional pension bene i ha exceeds 150% o he ull basic pension
amoun . The p opo ion o na ional pension ecipien s among basic pension
ecipien s inc eased om 30.4% in 2014 o 46.6% in 2022 (Kim, 2023). The income-
e e sal p e en ion educ ion is applied when he sum o he bene i amoun and
p e-bene i RAI exceeds he eligibili y h eshold; his is done o minimize he income
e e sal be ween bene icia ies and non-bene icia ies. App oxima ely 3% o ecipien s
a e subjec o he income- e e sal p e en ion educ ion. The spousal educ ion
applies o ma ied couples, imposing a 20% educ ion on each indi idual’s bene i .
The ull basic pension amoun is adjus ed ela i e o he in la ion a e and has been
g adually inc easing due o a ew jumps in 2018 and 2021. While he ull basic
pension amoun is ixed a he 10% o he A alue, which is he a e age sala y o
VOL. 47 NO. 1 Financial P ojec ion o he Basic Pension unde Selec i e Eligibili y C i e ia 101
na ional pension con ibu o s in las h ee yea s, i inc eased o 11% o he A alue
(250,000 won) in 2018 and 11.8% o he A alue (300,000 won) in 2021, as shown
in Figu e 2.
The numbe o basic pension ecipien s inc eased g adually om 4.35 million in
2014 o 6.23 million in 2022 due o apid aging, as shown in Table 3. As a esul , he
inancial expendi u e o he basic pension has mo e han doubled, ising om 9.68
illion won in 2015 o 20.09 illion won in 2022.
(Uni : 10,000won)
Single Households Couple Households
FIGURE 1. ANNUAL ELIGIBILITY THRESHOLD OF THE BASIC PENSION
Sou ce: NABO, “2018-2027 Es ima ion o he Expendi u e o he Basic Pension,” 2018, p.10; Minis y o Heal h
and Wel a e, “Basic Pension P og am Guidelines,” 2014-2024.
(Uni : won)
FIGURE 2. ANNUAL FULL BENEFIT AMOUNT OF THE BASIC PENSION
Sou ce: NABO, “2018-2027 Es ima ion o he Expendi u e o he Basic Pension,” 2018, p.12; Public Pension
Re o m and Long- e m P ojec ions I, 2023a, p.14.
102 KDI Jou nal o Economic Policy FEBRUARY 2025
TABLE 3—NUMBER OF BENEFICIARIES AND FINANCIAL STATUS OF THE BASIC PENSION EXPENDITURE
(Uni : Thousands, 10 Billion won)
Yea 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Numbe o
Bene icia ies
4,353 4,495 4,581 4,869 5,216 5,346 5,660 5,973 6,239
Expendi u e 462 968 991 1,053 1,196 1,478 1,669 1,890 2,009
Sou ce: NABO, 2018~2027 Es ima ion o he Expendi u e o he Basic Pension, 2018, p.8; Public Pension Re o m
and Long- e m P ojec ions I, 2023a. pp.13~14.
B. Selec i e Eligibili y C i e ia
The pu pose o he basic pension was o p o ide a secu e income o poo elde ly
people in o de o add ess he high elde ly po e y a e in Ko ea, which is mainly
due o he imma u e na ional pension sys em.
Howe e , he cu en eligibili y c i e ia o he basic pension, which a ge s he
bo om 70% o he RAI among hose aged 65 and o e , is no cos -e ec i e wi h
ega d o how well i add esses he high po e y a e among he elde ly. In ha he
basic pension a ge s 70% o he elde ly popula ion, inc easing he bene i amoun
o he basic pension will esul in la ge iscal expendi u es in he u u e. Fo example,
iscal expendi u e on he basic pension is p ojec ed o each 1.5% o GDP by 2050
and 1.2% o GDP by 2070, e en i he bene i amoun emains ixed in eal e ms a
he cu en le el due o Ko ea’s apid aging popula ion (NABO, 2023a). Al hough
he basic pension sys em has a educ ion mechanism ha educes he bene i amoun
o hose whose na ional pension income exceeds 150% o he maximum basic
pension bene i , his educ ion sys em has become less e ec i e in ul illing i s ole,
as he maximum basic pension bene i has inc eased subs an ially, ou pacing he
inc ease in na ional pension income such ha only a small p opo ion o he elde ly
ecei ing a na ional pension a e ac ually subjec o he educ ion sys em (Ryu e al.,
2022).
Mo eo e , as he na ional pension sys em has ma u ed and economic condi ions
ha e imp o ed, ela i ely economically well-o elde ly households ha e become
eligible o he basic pension. In pa icula , he eligibili y h eshold, which is he
bo om 70% o he RAI, has been ising. Fo example, while he bo om 70% o he
RAI among he elde ly amoun ed o only 50% o he median household income in
2015, i inc eased o almos 93% o he median household income in 2023. A he
cu en a e, he eligibili y h eshold is p ojec ed o exceed he median household
income le el.
The e o e, in o de o make he basic pension sys em mo e cos -e ec i e in e ms
o i s abili y o add ess he high po e y a e in Ko ea, one app oach is o make he
eligibili y c i e ia mo e selec i e by se ing an absolu e eligibili y h eshold.
Cu en ly, se e al p oposals in ela ion o his exis in he li e a u e. Fo example,
Yun (2023) sugges ed se ing he eligibili y c i e ia a he le el o 2023 and hen
inc easing he bene i amoun acco ding o he in la ion a e. The Basic Pension
Adequacy E alua ion Commi ee sugges ed se ing he eligibili y line a 50% o
100% o he median household income. In bo h cases, he numbe o bene icia ies
will dec ease compa ed o he cu en sys em as he income o he elde ly imp o es.
VOL. 47 NO. 1 Financial P ojec ion o he Basic Pension unde Selec i e Eligibili y C i e ia 109
pension bene i – i.e., ea ly na ional pension, special pension, and no mal old-age
pension wi h less han and a leas 20 yea s o con ibu ions - i is impo an o
classi y ecipien s in o hese ou ypes. The in o ma ion pe aining o he p opo ion
o ecipien s and he a e age bene i amoun o each ype by age and gende is aken
om he 2020 Na ional Pension Annual Repo . I hen use he a io o he A bene i
o he na ional pension bene i amoun o calcula e he A bene i om he a e age
bene i amoun o each ype by age and gende (Shin and Kim, 2021). Then, he
bene i amoun o concu en ecipien s can be calcula ed by applying he a e age
bene i amoun by gende and age and he A bene i o he educ ion o mula o he
basic pension bene i o each ype o na ional pension.
The iscal expendi u e o he basic pension is p ojec ed sepa a ely o each o he
eigh ypes o ecipien s unde he assump ion ha he p opo ion o each ype
emains cons an a he June 2021 le el, as p o ided by Shin and Kim (2021). To
p edic u u e ends in he p opo ions o each ype, adminis a i e da a om a
sou ce such as he Na ional Pension Da abase, which is no publicly accessible,
would be equi ed. The speci ic p ocedu es o he iscal p ojec ion a e included in
he Appendix.
C. P e ious Financial P ojec ion Scena ios and Resul s
P e ious s udies p esen ed inancial p ojec ion esul s o he basic pension based
on wo scena ios: uni e sal eligibili y c i e ia, whe e he basic pension is expanded
o all elde ly, and selec i e eligibili y c i e ia, whe e he a ge g oup g adually
sh inks o e ime and he bene i amoun a ies acco ding o he RAI. Fo example,
NABO (2018; 2023a) p ojec s ha he inancial expendi u e o he basic pension will
inc ease o 109.8 illion won unde he cu en sys em. In he uni e sal eligibili y
scena io, whe e he c i e ia a e expanded o include all elde ly aged 65 and o e and
he bene i amoun inc eases o 400,000 won as o 2024, he addi ional inancial
expendi u e ela i e o he cu en sys em is p ojec ed o amoun o 61 illion won
by 2090.
While NABO (2018; 2023a) did no conduc a inancial p ojec ion unde selec i e
c i e ia whe e he a ge g oup g adually sh inks, i did conside selec i e c i e ia
whe e he bene i amoun is di e en ially paid acco ding o he RAI. Fo ins ance,
while main aining 70% o he elde ly as he eligibili y c i e ia, i conside ed a
selec i e case in which he bene i amoun inc eases o 450,000 won o hose in he
bo om 40% in e ms o he RAI and 400,000 won o he emaining 30% o he
elde ly. These esul s show ha by 2090, he expendi u e declines by 15 illion won
compa ed o he uni e sal c i e ia case.
Ryu e al. (2022) conduc ed inancial p ojec ions unde selec i e c i e ia, whe e
he size o he ecipien pool sh inks only o he new gene a ion o elde ly who begin
ecei ing he basic pension, while ensu ing a minimum income le el o he poo
elde ly by in oducing a supplemen al income p og am on op o he basic pension.
Speci ically, hei s udy conside ed a scena io in which he basic pension amoun is
adjus ed o 12% o he A alue s a ing in 2023, equi alen o 326,000 won in 2023,
while g adually lowe ing he eligibili y c i e ia om he bo om 70% in e ms o he
RAI o he bo om 30% o he RAI. Unde his scena io, he s udy shows ha unde

110 KDI Jou nal o Economic Policy FEBRUARY 2025
he cu en sys em, he p ojec ed expendi u e amoun s o 360 illion won by 2092,
whe eas unde he selec i e c i e ia, 195 illion won could be sa ed compa ed o he
cu en case by 2092.
The selec i e c i e ia conside ed in ea lie s udies a e limi ed in ha hey
a i icially educe he size o he ecipien pool o e ime, a he han linking i o he
income dis ibu ion o u u e gene a ions. The size o he ecipien pool unde he
cu en ly discussed selec i e c i e ia, which ei he ixes he h eshold a he 2023
alue in eal e ms o links i o median household income, depends on he u u e
e olu ion o he income dis ibu ion among he elde ly. The e o e, his s udy uses he
basic pension inancial p ojec ion model by Shin and Kim (2021) o conduc
inancial p ojec ions unde selec i e c i e ia, whe e he size o he ecipien pool is
de e mined by he e olu ion o he RAI dis ibu ion o e ime. This p ojec ion is
made unde he s ong assump ion ha he u u e linea end o he RAI dis ibu ion
will emain consis en wi h he end obse ed be ween 2014 and 2021.
D. Fo ecas ing he Numbe o Recipien s unde Selec i e C i e ia
P e ious s udies conduc ed inancial p ojec ions o he basic pension unde
selec i e c i e ia by a i icially educing he pool o basic pension ecipien s o e
ime. Howe e , his app oach has a limi a ion in ha he pool o basic pension
ecipien s is exogenously de e mined a he disc e ion o he esea che a he han
h ough he ac ual p ocess in ol ing selec i e eligibili y c i e ia.
He e, I explain he speci ic p ocedu es o o ecas ing he p opo ion o basic
pension ecipien s unde he wo a o emen ioned ypes o selec i e eligibili y
c i e ia: ixing he eligibili y RAI h eshold a he 2024 le el and linking i o he
in la ion a e (selec i e scena io 1), and se ing he eligibili y RAI h eshold o 100%
o he median household income o wo-pe son amilies (selec i e scena io 2). The
c i ical in o ma ion needed o p edic he p opo ion o basic pension ecipien s
unde hese selec i e scena ios is he u u e dis ibu ion o he RAI o he elde ly, as
he e olu ion o he numbe o basic pension ecipien s will depend on he e olu ion
o he u u e dis ibu ion o he RAI.
Fi s , he RAI o each elde ly household be ween 2014 and 2021 can be measu ed
using Na ional Su ey o Tax and Bene i (NaSTaB) da a om 2014 o 2021 based
on he RAI o mula o single and couple households, as desc ibed in he Appendix.
Figu e 3 shows he 70 h pe cen ile o he measu ed RAI using panel da a and he
70 h pe cen ile o he ac ual RAI, ep esen ing he publicly announced eligibili y
c i e ia o he basic pension by he go e nmen be ween 2014 and 2023 o single
and ma ied-couple households. I u ns ou ha he accu acy o he 70 h pe cen ile
o he measu ed RAI is much highe o couple households compa ed o single
households. Fo ins ance, in 2022 and 2023, he measu ed 70 h pe cen ile RAI
co esponds o 2.93 million won and 3.13 million won o couple households, e y
simila o he ac ual 70 h pe cen ile o he RAI, 2.88 million won and 3.23 million
won, espec i ely. Howe e , o single-pe son households, he disc epancy be ween
he 70 h pe cen ile o he measu ed RAI and he ac ual RAI is ela i ely la ge
compa ed o ha o ma ied-couple households. Hence, o simplici y, h oughou
he analysis he e, I ocus on ma ied-couple households when es ima ing he u u e
VOL. 47 NO. 1 Financial P ojec ion o he Basic Pension unde Selec i e Eligibili y C i e ia 111
(Uni : 10,000won)
Single-pe son household Couple household
FIGURE 3. ELIGIBILITY THRESHOLD OF THE BASIC PENSION: 70TH PERCENTILE OF RAI FOR EACH
HOUSEHOLD TYPE
Sou ce: Calcula ed using he da a om he 7 h o 14 h wa es o he NaSTaB su ey by he Ko ea Ins i u e o
Public Finance.
dis ibu ion o he RAI and he p opo ion o ecipien s. I assume ha he u u e
p opo ion o single-pe son households will ollow ha o couple households.
Second, o each yea , he measu ed RAI is di ided in o pe cen iles. Using his
measu ed RAI o each pe cen ile, I un he ollowing linea eg ession o de i e he
p edic ed alue o he u u e RAI o each pe cen ile and yea .
, 0 1, ,
RAIs s s
ββ ε
=++
In his equa ion,
s
ep esen s he pe cen ile and
ep esen s he yea . Fo each
pe cen ile o he measu ed RAI, I use eigh samples om 2014 o 2021 o es ima e
1
β
. Table 5 epo s he coe icien alues,
1
β
, co esponding o ma ied-couple
households in each en h pe cen ile o he RAI. As shown in he able,
1
β
inc eases
as he pe cen ile o he RAI inc eases. This implies ha he g ow h a e o he RAI
inc eases wi h he pe cen ile o he RAI. Using he es ima ed coe icien s om he
linea eg ession, I p edic he u u e RAI o each pe cen ile o 47 pe iods om
2024 o 2070.
I should be no ed ha his analysis es ima es he u u e dis ibu ion o he RAI
unde he s ong assump ion ha each pe cen ile o he RAI will g ow linea ly a a
a e iden ical o he linea g ow h a e obse ed be ween 2014 and 2021. Thus, i
TABLE 5—COEFFICIENT VALUES PER EACH 10TH PERCENTILE
Pe cen ile 10 h 20 h 30 h 40 h 50 h 60 h 70 h 80 h 90 h 100 h
1
β
4.774 5.049 6.167 9.0814 12.756 15.613 18.629 22.707 29.107 87.433
SE 0.626 0.444 0.324 0.603 0.682 1.137 1.725 3.804 5.679 42.993
Numbe
o Obs.
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
Sou ce: Calcula ed using da a om he 7 h o 14 h wa es o he NaSTaB su ey by he Ko ea Ins i u e o Public
Finance.
112 KDI Jou nal o Economic Policy FEBRUARY 2025
(Uni : 1million won)
<10 h> <20 h> <30 h>
<40 h> <50 h> <60 h>
<70 h> <80 h> <90 h>
FIGURE 4. MEASURED AND ESTIMATED RAI OF COUPLE FAMILIES PER 10TH PERCENTILE (2014-2021)
Sou ce: Calcula ed using he da a om he 7 h o 14 h wa es o he NaSTaB su ey by he Ko ea Ins i u e o Public
Finance.
implici ly assumes ha he changes in he in la ion a e, economic g ow h a e, and
income dis ibu ion s uc u e obse ed om 2014 o 2021 will con inue in o he
u u e.
Figu e 4 shows bo h he es ima ed and p edic ed alues o he RAI be ween 2014
and 2021 o each en h pe cen ile o he RAI. Because he es ima ed RAI inc eases
linea ly o e he yea s, he p edic ed RAI, which was de i ed om he linea
eg ession, ma ches he le el and end o he es ima ed RAI ai ly well.6
Figu e 5 illus a es he model i by showing he o icial, measu ed, and es ima ed
alues o he 70 h pe cen ile o he RAI be ween 2014 and 2024. The o icial alues
6 The es ima ed RAI a he 80 h and 90 h pe cen iles luc ua es somewha o e he yea s; he e o e, he
di e ence be ween he p edic ed and es ima ed RAI is g ea e han ha a he lowe pe cen iles. Howe e , he
p edic ed alue o he RAI a he 80 h and 90 h pe cen iles is a ely used o p edic he p opo ion o basic pension
ecipien s unde he selec i e eligibili y c i e ia.
VOL. 47 NO. 1 Financial P ojec ion o he Basic Pension unde Selec i e Eligibili y C i e ia 113
o he 70 h pe cen ile o he RAI, epo ed annually by he Minis y o Heal h and
Wel a e o Sou h Ko ea, ep esen he igu es used o de e mine he ac ual eligibili y
c i e ia o he basic pension. The measu ed alues o he 70 h pe cen ile o he RAI
e e o he alues ob ained om NaSTaB, while he es ima ed alues a e hose
p edic ed by means o an OLS eg ession. The le side o Figu e 5 shows he yea ly
o icial, measu ed, and es ima ed alues o he 70 h pe cen ile o he RAI be ween
2014 and 2024, while he igh side o Figu e 5 displays he pe cen di e ence
be ween he es ima ed and o icial alues. The model i o he alues om 2022 o
2024 demons a e he pe o mance o ou -o -sample o ecas s, as hese alues a e
no used o es ima e he pa ame e alues o he OLS.
As shown on he le side o Figu e 5, he yea ly es ima ed and o icial alues o
he 70 h pe cen ile o he RAI exhibi a simila end. The simila i y in he le el can
be mo e accu a ely assessed by compa ing he di e ence be ween he es ima ed and
o icial alues, as shown on he igh side o Figu e 5. The a e age di e ence
be ween he es ima ed and o icial alues om 2014 o 2024 is app oxima ely 5.7%.
When examining he yea ly di e ences, he model’s p edic ion pe o mance
imp o es as he da a poin s become mo e ecen .7 Since 2021, he pe cen age
di e ence has allen below 5%. No ably, he di e ences a e 1.8%, 3.5%, and 3.1%
in 2022, 2023, and 2024, espec i ely, indica ing ela i ely high o ecas accu acy in
ou -o -sample pe iods.
Figu e 6 shows he p edic ed alue o he RAI o ma ied-couple households.
Speci ically, he igu e on he le shows he 70 h pe cen ile o he p edic ed RAI
be ween 2015 and 2060 and ha on he igh shows he dis ibu ion o he p edic ed
RAI be ween he en h and 90 h pe cen iles in nominal alue o he yea s 2023, 2033,
(Uni : 10,000won, %)
Eligibili y Th eshold: 70 h Pe cen ile o RAI Pe cen Di e ence be ween O icial and
Es ima ed Values
FIGURE 5. OFFICIAL, MEASURED AND ESTIMATED ELIGIBILITY THRESHOLD AND CORRESPONDING
PERCENT DIFFERENCES
Sou ce: Calcula ed using da a om he 7 h o 14 h wa es o he NaSTaB su ey by he Ko ea Ins i u e o Public
Finance.
7 The sou ce o he di e ence be ween he es ima ed and he o icial alues can be decomposed in o he
di e ence be ween he measu ed and o icial alues and he model misspeci ica ion om he ac ha linea
eg ession is used o de i e he es ima ed alues.
114 KDI Jou nal o Economic Policy FEBRUARY 2025
(Uni : 10,000won)
70 h Pe cen ile o Es ima ed RAI Dis ibu ion o Es ima ed RAI
FIGURE 6. ESTIMATES OF ELIGIBILITY THRESHOLD AND DISTRIBUTION OF RAI
Sou ce: Calcula ed using da a om he 7 h o 14 h wa es o he NaSTaB su ey by he Ko ea Ins i u e o Public
Finance.
and 2043. The igu e on he le shows ha he eligibili y h eshold, he 70 h
pe cen ile o he RAI, is p edic ed o inc ease o 13.4 million won o ma ied-couple
households in nominal e ms in 2070, which is mo e han h ee imes he 70 h
pe cen ile o he RAI in 2024 a 3.408 million won. The igu e on he igh indica es
ha he dis ibu ion o he p edic ed RAI shi s o he igh o e ime, which e lec s
he imp o ing economic si ua ion o u u e gene a ions o he elde ly.
Thus a , I ha e explained he speci ic p ocedu es used o es ima e he RAI o
each pe cen ile using Na ional Su ey o Tax and Bene i da a om 2014 o 2021
and he p edic he u u e RAI sou ced om linea eg ession analyses. In o de o
de i e he p opo ion o elde ly unde selec i e scena io 1, I calcula e he p opo ion
o he elde ly below he 70 h pe cen ile o he p edic ed RAI in 2024 alue in
nominal e ms, which is 3.408 million won.
Figu e 7 shows he es ima ed p opo ion o ecipien s. Speci ically, he igu e on
he le depic s he p opo ion o ma ied-couple households below he eligibili y
c i e ia h eshold in 2024 (3.408 million won), while he igu e on he igh shows
he p opo ion o ma ied-couple households below he median household income.
As illus a ed in he igu e on he le , he p opo ion o ma ied-couple households
below he eligibili y h eshold o 3.408 million won in 2024—adjus ed o 2%
in la ion annually—declines om 70% o 50% be ween 2024 and 2050 as he li ing
s anda ds o he new elde ly gene a ion imp o e. A e 2050, his p opo ion
s abilizes a 50%. This s abiliza ion occu s because he es ima ed nominal alue o
he h eshold line in 2023 ollows a con ex pa e n due o he annual 2% inc ease,
while he u u e RAI pe pe cen ile is p ojec ed unde a linea end. Consequen ly,
my p ojec ion o ecipien s unde selec i e scena io 1 may o e es ima e he numbe
o ecipien s i he u u e in la ion a e is lowe han 2% o i he ue end o RAI
is con ex a he han linea .8
8The p ojec ion esul s om Lee, Kim, and Shin (2023) di e om hose in his s udy because Lee, Kim, and
Shin (2023) p edic he 2023 h eshold line by assuming a linea end in he eal- e m alues o he 2023 h eshold

VOL. 47 NO. 1 Financial P ojec ion o he Basic Pension unde Selec i e Eligibili y C i e ia 115
The igh side o Figu e 6 shows he p opo ion o ecipien s whose incomes a e
lowe han he median income o wo-pe son households. These esul s indica e ha
he p opo ion o households below he median household income g adually
con e ges om 70% o 52% be ween 2024 and 2070. I is impo an o no e ha he
p opo ion o ecipien s emains a 70% un il 2026 because he o iginal eligibili y
h eshold, which is he 70 h pe cen ile o he RAI, is lowe han he median income
o wo-pe son households un il 2026. The e o e, selec i e scena io 2 only akes
e ec a e 2026, when he 70 h pe cen ile o he RAI is p ojec ed o su pass he
median income. A e wa d, he a e declines g adually h oughou he pe iod
be ween 2024 and 2070, as bo h he median income and he RAI a e es ima ed unde
a linea end.
The p opo ion o ecipien s declines a a as e a e unde selec i e scena io 1
compa ed o scena io 2 in he sho e m. Figu e 6 shows ha he p opo ion o
ecipien s unde selec i e scena io 1 eaches 0.5 much ea lie han i does unde
selec i e scena io 2. This occu s because, in he sho e m, he g ow h a e o median
income exceeds he in la ion-adjus ed alue o he eligibili y h eshold se in 2024.
O e all, he p opo ion o ecipien s unde selec i e scena io 1 emains lowe han
ha unde selec i e scena io 2. Meanwhile, i is impo an o assess whe he he
in la ion-adjus ed alue o he 2024 eligibili y h eshold e e alls below 50% o he
median income o wo-pe son households, which is he po e y line and which also
se es as he lowe bounda y o selec i e scena io 1. The analysis shows ha ,
h oughou he pe iod be ween 2024 and 2070, he in la ion-adjus ed h eshold line
om 2024 ne e alls below 50% o he median income.
(Uni : %)
P opo ion unde he 2024 Basic Pension Th eshold P opo ion unde he Median Household Income
FIGURE 7. PROPORTIONS OF RECIPIENTS UNDER SELECTIVE SCENARIOS
Sou ce: Calcula ed using da a om he 7 h o 14 h wa es o he NaSTaB su ey by he Ko ea Ins i u e o Public
Finance.
line in he pas , a he han applying a 2% in la ion a e o he eligibili y h eshold line.
116 KDI Jou nal o Economic Policy FEBRUARY 2025
IV. Financial P ojec ion unde Va ious Pension Re o m Scena ios
A. Explana ion o Pension Re o m Scena ios
In his s udy, I conduc inancial p ojec ions unde di e en scena ios ha a y in
wo aspec s: eligibili y c i e ia and bene i le els. The baseline scena io ollows he
cu en eligibili y c i e ia, which a ge he bo om 70% o he RAI, and he bene i
amoun , which is se a 334,810 won in 2024 and e ol es acco ding o an in la ion
a e o 2% he ea e .
Fo he al e na i e scena ios, I assume ha he bene i amoun inc eases o
400,000 won s a ing in 2025. I conside wo al e na i e scena ios. The i s is he
expansion o old-age income secu i y (he ea e he expansion scena io). These
expansion scena ios a e cha ac e ized by an inc ease in bo h he co e age and he
le el o bene i s compa ed o he basic pension scheme. Speci ically, I conside wo
expansion scena ios: in he i s such scena io, he bene i amoun is inc eased o
400,000 won in 2025 and adjus ed acco ding o he in la ion a e (expansion scena io
1); in he second scena io, in addi ion o he bene i inc ease, he eligibili y c i e ia
a e expanded om he bo om 70% o he bo om 100% o he popula ion (expansion
scena io 2).
The second ype o al e na i e scena io includes selec i e eligibili y c i e ia
(he ea e e e ed o as he selec i e scena io), designed o educe he numbe o
basic pension bene icia ies as he economic si ua ion o he elde ly imp o es. I
conside wo selec i e scena ios as well. The i s se s he eligibili y c i e ia h eshold
a he 70 h pe cen ile o he RAI among ma ied-couple households in 2024, which
is 3.408 million won, and hen in la es his h eshold in subsequen yea s (he ea e ,
selec i e scena io 1). The second selec i e scena io se s he RAI h eshold a he
median income o wo-pe son amilies (he ea e , selec i e scena io 2). I should be
no ed ha selec i e scena io 2 only akes e ec when he o iginal eligibili y
h eshold, which is he 70 h pe cen ile o he RAI, su passes he median income o
wo-pe son households.
TABLE 6—PROJECTION SCENARIOS
Scena io Full Bene i Amoun Eligibili y C i e ia Th eshold
Baseline Scena io 334,810 won in 2024
in la ion adjus ed alue (~2024) 70 h pe cen ile o RAI
Expansion Scena io 1
334,810 won in 2024
400,000 won (2025)
in la ion adjus ed alue (~2025)
70 h pe cen ile o RAI
Expansion Scena io 2
334,810 won in 2024
400,000 won (2025)
in la ion adjus ed alue (~2025)
100 h pe cen ile o RAI
Selec i e Scena io 1 334,810 won in 2024
in la ion adjus ed alue(~2024)
In la ion Adjus ed Value o
2024 Eligibili y C i e ia Th eshold
(3.408 million won)
Selec i e Scena io 2 334,810 won in 2024
in la ion adjus ed alue (~2024)
Median Income o Two-Pe son
Households
VOL. 47 NO. 1 Financial P ojec ion o he Basic Pension unde Selec i e Eligibili y C i e ia 117
B. Financial P ojec ion unde he Baseline Scena io
Be o e p ojec ing he inancial expendi u e unde he baseline case, i s I p esen
he popula ion o elde ly indi iduals aged 65 and o e , basic pension ecipien s, and
concu en ecipien s, as doing so is essen ial o o ecas ing inancial expendi u e
in Figu e 8. Due o apid aging, he popula ion o elde ly indi iduals aged 65 and
o e ises signi ican ly, inc easing by 1.9 imes om en million in 2023 o 19 million
in 2050. Howe e , due o he low e ili y a e, he popula ion size dec eases sligh ly
a e 2050, eaching 17.5 million, which is s ill 1.75 imes highe han he 2023 le el.
Simila ly, he numbe o basic pension ecipien s, which is 70% o he elde ly
popula ion, eaches i s peak in 2050 and hen begins o decline. Con e sely, o
concu en bene icia ies, as he a io o na ional pension ecipien s o he o al
popula ion inc eases o e ime, he e is an upwa d end un il 2070, al hough he
g ow h a e slows somewha a e 2050.
Figu e 9 illus a es he inancial p ojec ion esul s unde he cu en sys em. Figu e
9 shows ha he inancial expendi u e o he basic pension amoun s o 25 illion
won in 2024, 76 illion won in 2050, and 102 illion won in 2070. Rela i e o he
nominal GDP, hese expendi u e le els each 1% in 2024, 1.5% in 2050, and 1.3%
in 2070.
I is e iden ha while he numbe o ecipien s declines a e 2050, he inancial
expendi u e con inues o ise e en beyond 2050. This is due o he expendi u e being
p esen ed in nominal e ms. When con e ing he inancial expendi u e o eal e ms,
as shown on he igh side o Figu e 10, he e is a sligh decline a e 2050. O e
ime, he p opo ion o inancial expendi u e con ibu ed by concu en bene icia ies
inc eases as hei numbe s g ow.
(Uni : 100,000)
FIGURE 8. YEARLY POPULATION PROJECTIONS
Sou ce: Calcula ed based on popula ion p ojec ions by he Depa men o S a is ics and he basic pension o mula.
118 KDI Jou nal o Economic Policy FEBRUARY 2025
(Uni : T illion won, %)
FIGURE 9. FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS UNDER THE BASELINE SCENARIO
No e: Calcula ed based on he basic pension o mula.
(Uni : %)
2023~2032: Nominal Te ms 2023~2070: Real Te ms
FIGURE 10. COMPARISON WITH FINANCIAL EXPENDITURE FROM NABO (
2023a
)
No e: The igu e on he le is based on cu en p ices and ha on he igh is based on 2023 cons an p ices.
Sou ce: Basic pension inancial p ojec ion esul s calcula ed by he au ho and NABO (2023a).
To assess he adequacy o he inancial p ojec ions in his s udy, I compa e hem
wi h he esul s om NABO (2023a). As shown on he le side o Figu e 10, he
esul om NABO (2023a) and his s udy exhibi simila le els and ends be ween
2023 and 2032.9 Fo ins ance, NABO (2023a) p edic s ha he inancial expendi u e
9Fo a alid compa ison wi h ea lie s udies ha used p ojec ions om 2023, I make he inancial p ojec ion
assuming 2023 as he mos ecen yea In he main esul s o his s udy, I use ac ual da a om 2024 o he ull
VOL. 47 NO. 1 Financial P ojec ion o he Basic Pension unde Selec i e Eligibili y C i e ia 125
APPENDIX
A. Calcula ion o RAI11
This sec ion explains he p ocedu e o calcula ing he RAI. To es ima e he long-
e m p opo ion o basic pension ecipien s unde he selec i e eligibili y c i e ia, i
is necessa y o p ojec he u u e dis ibu ion o he RAI. The u u e dis ibu ion is
o ecas ed based on he linea end o pas RAI le els, unde he assump ion ha he
g ow h a e o his index will emain consis en .
The RAI is calcula ed sepa a ely o single and ma ied-couple households. When
elde ly indi iduals li e wi h hei pa en s, each household is conside ed o be a
sepa a e uni . In his s udy, household ypes a e di ided in o h ee ca ego ies: hose
wi h a household head, hose wi h he household head’s spouse, and hose o he
pa en s o ei he he household head o he household head’s spouse, each de ined as
a dis inc household uni . I should be no ed ha while ecipien s o occupa ional
pensions who mee exclusion c i e ia o special excep ions may s ill be eligible o
ecei e he basic pension, his s udy did no conside hese special cases and
excluded indi iduals ecei ing occupa ional pensions.
RAI e e s o he combined alue o he income assessmen amoun (IAA) and he
con e ed alue o asse s (CVA). I is calcula ed based on he indi idual’s income
and asse s o single households and based on he combined income and asse s o
bo h he indi idual and hei spouse o couple households. The o mula o he RAI
is gi en below.
+ RAI Income Assessmen Amoun Income Con e ed Asse =
,
whe e
= {0.7 ( )}
+
+
Income Assessmen Amoun
Labou Income Ea ned Income Deduc ion
Business Income Public T ans e Income
Impu ed Ren Income P ope y Income
×−
+


+

and
11The RAI is calcula ed by Choo SeokHyeon, a esea ch s a membe a KDI.

126 KDI Jou nal o Economic Policy FEBRUARY 2025
( )
( 20 )
12
Income Con e ed Asse
Gene al P ope y Basic P ope y Amoun P ope y Income Con e sion Ra e
Financial Asse million won Liabili y
mon hs
Value o Luxu y Ca s and Membe sh
=
− + 

×


−−






+ips
1. Me hod o Calcula ing he Income Assessmen Amoun
To calcula e he income assessmen amoun , one needs o compu e labo income,
business income, public ans e income, impu ed en , and p ope y income. Fi s ,
labo income e e s o income om employmen o h ee consecu i e mon hs wi h
a ixed mon hly sala y (Minis y o Heal h and Wel a e, 2023). In his con ex ,
income om public jobs o sel -su iciency wo k is excluded om labo income.
Howe e , in p ac ice, NaSTaB lacks in o ma ion wi h which one can iden i y
whe he he indi idual wo ked con inuously o mo e han h ee mon hs in he
p e ious yea . The e o e, in his s udy, he a e age mon hly labo income is
calcula ed by di iding labo income om he p e ious yea by he numbe o mon hs
wo ked in he p e ious yea .
Business income is he sum o en al income and o he business- ela ed income.
Annual en al income is con e ed in o a mon hly alue by di iding he yea ly en al
income by 12. To calcula e o he business income on a mon hly basis, he annual ne
business income is di ided by he numbe o mon hs wo ked. P ope y income
consis s o he sum o in e es income and p i a e pension income combined. In e es
income is calcula ed using annual in e es , di idends, and capi al gains, wi h a
deduc ion applied o amoun s up o 40,000 KRW pe mon h. P i a e pension income
is de i ed om he o al p i a e pension insu ance income.
Public ans e income includes na ional pension income, indus ial acciden
insu ance bene i s (such as sickness bene i s, disabili y bene i s, su i o bene i s,
occupa ional disease compensa ion pensions, pneumoconiosis compensa ion
pensions, and pneumoconiosis su i o pensions), as well as bene i s paid o
e e ans and o he indi iduals eligible o na ional me i and hono . The e o e, public
ans e income is calcula ed as he sum o na ional pension income (including old-
age pensions, disabili y pensions, su i o pensions, and di ided pensions),
indus ial acciden insu ance bene i s (including occupa ional inju y sickness
bene i s, occupa ional disabili y bene i s, and occupa ional acciden su i o
pensions), and e e an bene i s om NaSTaB.
Impu ed en income e e s o he amoun calcula ed as he en al income
equi alen o esiding in a high- alue p ope y owned by a i s -deg ee lineal
descendan , such as a child. Howe e , his is excluded om he cu en analysis.
2. Me hod o Calcula ing Impu ed Income om Asse s
The alue o each indi idual’s au omobile asse s is de e mined by applying he
VOL. 47 NO. 1 Financial P ojec ion o he Basic Pension unde Selec i e Eligibili y C i e ia 127
ype o ca , engine displacemen in o ma ion, and he yea o pu chase by he esidual
alue a es acco ding o he ehicle age as p o ided by he Na ional Pension Se ice.
Vehicles wi h an engine displacemen o less han 3,000 cc o alued below 40
million won a e classi ied as gene al asse s. Addi ionally, ca s used by indi iduals
wi h disabili ies o li ing pu poses should no be coun ed as au omobile asse s;
howe e , his le el o de ail is no conside ed in his s udy.
Di e en ia ed basic asse alues and impu ed income con e sion a es acco ding
o he me opoli an a eas, o medium-sized ci ies, and o u al a eas a e de i ed
om he o icial annual alues p o ided in he Basic Pension P og am Guidelines.
Gene al asse s include land, buildings, housing, ai c a and ships, en al deposi s,
o es esou ces and ishing igh s, as well as au omobile asse s ( ehicles wi h an
engine displacemen o less han 3,000 cc o alued below 40 million won) (Minis y
o Heal h and Wel a e, 2023). Gene al asse s a e de i ed om da a on he ma ke
alue o eal es a e, he ma ke alue o ships, en al deposi amoun s, and
au omobile asse s ( ehicles wi h an engine displacemen o less han 3,000 cc o
alued below 40 million won). To dis inguish he gene al asse s o basic pension
ecipien s accu a ely, i is necessa y o iden i y he asse holde wi hin he amily.
Howe e , because i is di icul o dis inguish hese asse holde s using NaSTaB da a,
his s udy u ilizes amily-le el in o ma ion on gene al asse s.
Financial asse s include cash, checks, bonds, p omisso y no es, s ocks,
go e nmen and public bonds, deposi s, sa ings accoun s, insu ance, in es men
secu i ies, and pension insu ance (Minis y o Heal h and Wel a e, 2023). In his
s udy, he alue o inancial asse s is calcula ed by summing all o he inancial asse
a iables p o ided by NaSTaB. Howe e , na ional and p i a e pensions ecei ed as
a lump sum a e no included in he calcula ion o inancial asse s o his s udy.
Liabili ies include loans ob ained om inancial ins i u ions such as i s - ie
banks, second- ie banks, and lending companies (Minis y o Heal h and Wel a e,
2023). This s udy calcula es liabili ies by summing he o al amoun o amily
liabili ies om NaSTaB.
B. P ocedu es o P ojec ing Fiscal Expendi u e by Recipien Types
Type 1: Non-pension ecipien s who a e subjec o bo h he income- e e sal
p e en ion educ ion and he spousal educ ion o ma ied couples.
The numbe o Type 1 ecipien s is calcula ed by mul iplying he numbe o non-
pension ecipien s (NonP)—de i ed by sub ac ing he numbe o concu en
bene icia ies om he o al numbe o basic pension ecipien s—by he p opo ion
o non-pension ecipien s who a e subjec o bo h he income- e e sal p e en ion
educ ion and he spousal educ ion o ma ied couples. This p opo ion is based on
he ac ual igu es om 2021, as eco ded in Table 4.
1
1
(2021, )
(, ) (, ) (2021, )
Type
Type NonP
NonP
Ns
N s N s Ns
= ×
128 KDI Jou nal o Economic Policy FEBRUARY 2025
The o al iscal expendi u e o Type 1 can be de i ed by mul iplying he numbe
o Type 1 ecipien s by he ull basic pension amoun . Speci ically, since Type 1 is
subjec o bo h he income- e e sal p e en ion and spousal educ ions, I mul iply he
ac ual a io o he ull basic pension bene i o he a e age basic pension amoun paid
o Type 1 ecipien s, using he 2021 alues p o ided by Shin and Kim (2021).
Al hough Shin and Kim (2021) p o ide age-speci ic a ios, gi en ha he e is li le
a ia ion by age, I apply he a io a age 65 uni o mly ac oss all ages in he
calcula ion, which I deno e as g(2021, 65) in he o mula.
1 11
1
1
( , ) ( ) (2021, ,65) 12
(2021, ,65)
whe e, (2021, ,65) ,
()
Type Type Type
Type
ype
Exp s FBP g s N
BP s
gs FBP
= × ××
=
Since he ull basic pension amoun (FBP) is calcula ed on a mon hly basis, i is
mul iplied by 12 o con e i in o he annual expendi u e.
Type 2: Non-pension ecipien s who a e subjec o he spousal educ ion o
ma ied couples.
To calcula e he numbe o ecipien s who a e Type 2 ecipien s, we mul iply he
p opo ion o non-pension ecipien s who a e subjec o he spousal educ ion o
ma ied couples bu no subjec o he income- e e sal p e en ion educ ion by he
o al numbe o non-pension ecipien s.
2
2
(2021, )
(, ) (, ) (2021, )
Type
Type NonP
NonP
Ns
N s N s Ns
= ×
Since he spousal educ ion a e is 20%, Type 2 ecipien s ecei e 80% o he
pension amoun .
22
( , ) ( ) ( , ) 0.8 12
Type Type
Exp s FBP N s= × ××
Type 3: Non-pension ecipien s who a e subjec o income e e se p e en ion
educ ion.
To calcula e he numbe o ecipien s who a e Type 3 ecipien s, we mul iply he
VOL. 47 NO. 1 Financial P ojec ion o he Basic Pension unde Selec i e Eligibili y C i e ia 129
p opo ion o non-pension ecipien s who a e subjec o he income- e e sal
p e en ion educ ion bu no subjec o he spousal educ ion o ma ied couples by
he o al numbe o non-pension ecipien s.
3
3
(2021, )
(, ) (, ) (2021, )
Type
Type NonP
NonP
Ns
N s N s Ns
= ×
The basic pension expendi u e o Type 3 is hen calcula ed by mul iplying he
numbe o Type 3 ecipien s by he p oduc o he ull basic pension amoun and he
ac ual a io o he ull basic pension bene i o he a e age basic pension amoun paid
o Type 3 ecipien s, based on he 2021 da a p o ided by Shin and Kim (2021).
3 33
( , ) ( ) ( , ) (2021, ,65) 12
Type Type Type
Exp s FBP N s g s
=×× ×
Type 4: Non-pension ecipien s who a e no subjec o he spousal educ ion o
ma ied couples o he income- e e sal p e en ion educ ion.
To calcula e he numbe o ecipien s who belong o Type 4, mul iply he
p opo ion o non-pension ecipien s who a e nei he subjec o he income- e e sal
p e en ion educ ion no he spousal educ ion o ma ied couples by he o al
numbe o non-pension ecipien s. This p opo ion is based on ac ual 2021 da a
p o ided by Shin and Kim (2021).
4
4
(2021, )
(, ) (, ) (2021, )
Type
Type NonP
NonP
Ns
N s N s Ns
= ×
The basic pension expendi u e o Type 4 is calcula ed by mul iplying he numbe
o Type 4 ecipien s by he ull bene i amoun . This igu e is hen mul iplied by 12
o con e i in o an annual alue.
44
(, ) () (, ) 12
Type Type
Exp s FBP N s=××
Type 5: Concu en ecipien s who a e subjec o he income- e e sal p e en ion
educ ion and he spousal educ ion o ma ied couples.
Numbe o Type 5 ecipien s can be calcula ed by he p oduc o he concu en
130 KDI Jou nal o Economic Policy FEBRUARY 2025
ecipien s and he a io o Type 5 ecipien s among he concu en ecipien s. This
p opo ion is based on he ac ual igu es om 2021, as eco ded in Table 4.
5
5
(2021, )
(, ) (, ) (2021, )
Type
Type CR
CR
Ns
N s N s Ns
= ×
Then he basic pension expendi u e o Type 5 is calcula ed by mul iplying he
numbe o Type 5 ecipien s by he p oduc o he ull basic pension amoun and he
ac ual a io o he ull basic pension bene i o he a e age basic pension amoun paid
o Type 5 ecipien s, based on he 2021 da a p o ided by Shin and Kim (2021).
5 55
( , ) ( ) (2021, ,65) 12
Type Type Type
Exp s FBP g s N= × ××
Type 6: Concu en ecipien s who a e subjec o he spousal educ ion o ma ied
couples.
Numbe o Type 6 ecipien s can be calcula ed by he p oduc o he concu en
ecipien s and he a io o Type 6 ecipien s among he concu en ecipien s. This
a io is based on he ac ual igu es om 2021, as eco ded in Table 4.
6
6
(2021, )
(, ) (, ) (2021, )
Type
Type CR
CR
Ns
N s N s Ns
= ×
Then he basic pension expendi u e o Type 6 is calcula ed by mul iplying he
numbe o Type 6 ecipien s by he p oduc o he basic pension amoun and he 80%
discoun ha is applied o he spousal educ ion. He e, he basic pension amoun is
calcula ed based on he bene i o mula o concu en ecipien s as men ioned in
sec ion 3.
66
( , ) ( ) ( , ) 0.8 12
Type Type
Exp s BP N s= × ××
Type 7: Concu en ecipien s who a e subjec o he income- e e sal p e en ion
educ ion.
Numbe o Type 7 ecipien s can be calcula ed by he p oduc o he concu en
ecipien s and he a io o Type 7 ecipien s among he concu en ecipien s. This

VOL. 47 NO. 1 Financial P ojec ion o he Basic Pension unde Selec i e Eligibili y C i e ia 131
a io is based on he ac ual igu es om 2021, as eco ded in Table 4.
7
7
(2021, )
(, ) (, ) (2021, )
Type
Type CR
CR
Ns
N s N s Ns
= ×
The basic pension expendi u e o Type 7 is calcula ed by mul iplying he numbe
o Type 7 ecipien s by he p oduc o he basic pension amoun and he ac ual a io
o he ull basic pension bene i o he a e age basic pension amoun paid o Type 7
ecipien s, based on he 2021 da a p o ided by Shin and Kim (2021).
77
(, ) () (, ) 12
Type Type
Exp s FBP N s
=××
Type 8: Concu en ecipien s who a e subjec o nei he he income- e e sal
p e en ion educ ion no he spousal educ ion
Numbe o Type 8 ecipien s can be calcula ed by he p oduc o he concu en
ecipien s and he a io o Type 8 ecipien s among he concu en ecipien s which
is based on he ac ual igu es om 2021, as eco ded in Table 4.
8
8
(2021, )
(, ) (, ) (2021, )
Type
Type CR
CR
Ns
N s N s Ns
= ×
The basic pension expendi u e o Type 8 is hen calcula ed by mul iplying he
numbe o Type 8 ecipien s by he p oduc o he basic pension amoun , which is
calcula ed based on he bene i o mula o concu en ecipien s, as men ioned in
sec ion 3.
88
(, ) () (, ) 12
Type Type
Exp s BP N s=××
C. Me hod o Es ima ing Median Income
To con e he RAI de i ed in his s udy in o a a io ela i e o he median income,
i is necessa y o es ima e u u e median household income ends. Assuming he
end in median household income emains consis en be ween 2015 and 2024, his
s udy es ima es median household income om 2025 onwa ds. Fi s , he o icially
epo ed median household income da a om 2015 o 2024 a e used o p edic u u e
132 KDI Jou nal o Economic Policy FEBRUARY 2025
(Uni : 10,000won)
Median Income o Two-Pe son Households P ojec ion o Median Income o Two-Pe son
Households (~2070)
FIGURE A1. OFFICIAL AND ESTIMATED VALUE OF MEDIAN INCOME OF TWO-PERSON HOUSEHOLDS
No e: O icial alues o he median income a e epo ed by he Minis y o Heal h and Wel a e.
alues om 2025 onwa ds. Speci ically, o dina y leas squa es (OLS) eg ession is
applied o p edic median household income om 2025 onwa ds using he o icial
alues o wo-pe son households. The es ima ion esul s indica e ha he median
income o a wo-pe son household is p ojec ed o inc ease om 3.61 million KRW
in 2025 o 8.27 million KRW in 2070.
D. Compa ing he o ecas pe o mance be ween OLS and ARIMA
In his sec ion, I compa e he o ecas pe o mance ou comes o linea eg ession
and he au o eg essi e in eg a ed mo ing a e age (ARIMA) model when used o
es ima e he RAI dis ibu ion. The ARIMA models a e deno ed as ARIMA (p,d,q),
whe e p ep esen s he numbe o lags, d s ands o he deg ee o di e encing, and q
is he o de o he mo ing-a e age model (Wikipedia Con ibu o s, 2024). I selec ed
ARIMA (1,1,0) because i has he lowes AIC and BIC compa ed o o he ARIMA
models, wi h p and q alues ha a e less han o equal o 2, and wi h d equal o 1. I
o ecas he 70 h pe cen ile o he measu ed RAI using bo h ARIMA (1,1,0) and
linea eg ession, and I epo he yea ly es ima es o each model on he le side o
Appendix Figu e A2 and he pe cen di e ence be ween he o icial and es ima ed
alues o each model on he igh side.
The o ecas pe o mance ou comes o he OLS and ARIMA models a y in he
ea lie pe iod. Howe e , a e 2021, he o ecas pe o mances o bo h models
con e ge, wi h he pe cen di e ence be ween he o icial and es ima ed 70 h
pe cen ile o he RAI alling below 5% o bo h models, as shown on he igh side
o he igu e. When compa ing u u e p ojec ions using he OLS and ARIMA models
up o 2070, bo h exhibi a simila linea end, as illus a ed in Appendix Figu e A3.
This sugges s ha he long- e m o ecas pe o mance capabili ies o OLS and
ARIMA do no di e signi ican ly. The e o e, o he pu poses o his pape , I use
OLS eg ession o p edic he RAI dis ibu ion.
VOL. 47 NO. 1 Financial P ojec ion o he Basic Pension unde Selec i e Eligibili y C i e ia 133
Yea ly Es ima es: 2014-2024 Pe cen Di e ence
FIGURE A2. YEARLY ESTIMATES AND PERCENT DIFFERENCE UNDER OLS AND ARIMA
Sou ce: Calcula ed using da a om he 7 h o 14 h wa es o he NaSTaB su ey by he Ko ea Ins i u e o Public
Finance.
FIGURE A3. YEARLY ESTIMATES UNDER OLS AND ARIMA: 2014-2070
Sou ce: P edic ed using da a om he 7 h o 14 h wa es o he NaSTaB su ey by he Ko ea Ins i u e o Public
Finance.
134 KDI Jou nal o Economic Policy FEBRUARY 2025
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Repo 2022-01, Ko ea Ins i u e o Heal h and Social A ai s (in Ko ean).
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he Basic Pension,” Policy Repo 2021-05, Na ional Pension Resea ch Ins i u e, Na ional
Pension Se ice (in Ko ean).
Wikipedia Con ibu o s. 2024. Au o eg essi e In eg a ed Mo ing A e age, Wikipedia, Oc obe ,
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LITERATURE IN KOREAN
국민연금공단. 2020. 「2020년 국민연금 통계연보」.
국회예산정책처. 2018. 「2018~2027년 기초연금 재정소요 추계」.
국회예산정책처. 2023a. 『공적연금개혁과 재정전망 Ⅰ』.
국회예산정책처. 2023b. 『공적연금개혁과 재정전망 Ⅱ』.
권태구 외. 2022. 『사회보험료 지원사업 10년, 평가와 개선과제: 지자체 사업을 중심으로』, 연구보고서
2022-10, 한국기술교육대학교 고용직업능력개발센터.
기초연금 적정성 평가위원회. 2023. 『2023년 기초연금 적정성 평가위원회 보고서』.
류재린 외. 2022. 『공적연금 재구조화 방안 연구』, 연구보고서 2022-01, 한국보건사회연구원.
보건복지부. 2014-2024. 『기초연금 사업안내』.
보건복지부. 2023. 「제5차 국민연금 종합운영계획(안)」.
신경혜·김형수. 2021. 『기초연금 재정시뮬레이션모형 구축』, 정책보고서 2021-05, 국민연금공단 국민연금
연구원.
윤석명. 2023. 『정치적, 재정적으로 지속 가능한 연금개혁 방향』, 지속가능한 국민연금 재정을 위한 개혁
방향 정책토론회, 한국재정학회.
이강구·김도헌·신승룡. 2023. 『공적연금제도 지속가능성 제고를 위한 개혁방안』, KDI 정책 연구시리즈,
2022년 제7차 국민연금 전문가 포럼.