The influence of mass media on tourist behavior of people living in a country bordering war

Tuclea, Claudia-Elena; Vranceanu, Diana-Maria; Tigu, Gabriela; Diaconescu, Mirela; Curteanu, Oana-Diana Article The influence of mass media on tourist behavior of people living in a country bordering war Amfiteatru Economic Provided in Cooperation with: The Bucharest University of Economic Studies Suggested Citation: Tuclea, Claudia-Elena; Vranceanu, Diana-Maria; Tigu, Gabriela; Diaconescu, Mirela; Curteanu, Oana-Diana (2024) : The influence of mass media on tourist behavior of people living in a country bordering war, Amfiteatru Economic, ISSN 2247-9104, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Vol. 26, Iss. Special Issue No. 18, pp. 1193-1207, https://doi.org/10.24818/EA/2024/S18/1193 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/318607 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. 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If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ New Trends in Sustainable Business and Consumption AE Vol. 26 • Special Issue No 18 • November 2024 1193 THE INFLUENCE OF MASS MEDIA ON TOURIST BEHAVIOR OF PEOPLE LIVING IN A COUNTRY BORDERING WAR Claudia-Elena Țuclea1 * , Diana-Maria Vrânceanu2 , Gabriela Țigu3, Mirela Diaconescu4 and Oana-Diana Curteanu5 1)2)3)4)5) Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Romania Please cite this article as: Țuclea, C.E., Vrânceanu, D.M., Țigu, G., Diaconescu, M and Curteanu, O.D, 2024. The Influence Of Mass Media On Tourist Behavior Of People Living In A Country Bordering War. Amfiteatru Economic, 26(Special Issue No. 18), pp. 1193-1207. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24818/EA/2024/S18/1193 Article History Received: 13 August 2024 Revised: 18 September 2024 Accepted: 12 October 2024 Abstract The article examines the impact of war and war news in the mass media on the behaviour of tourists, based on a survey conducted in mid-2022 among a sample of 1036 respondents, citizens of a country close to the conflict in Ukraine. The tourism sector has suffered numerous crises triggered by various events that are essentially incompatible with the development of travel. War is a factor with a particular impact, but the academic literature regarding the impact on tourist behaviour during a conflict is insufficient. The study aims to investigate the mechanisms by which proximity of war influences tourists’ decisions of tourists in Romania, one of the neighbouring countries of the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, in terms of travel intention and destination choice. The results show that people do not give up tourism, but they are influenced by the news about the war in the media, and the possible panic caused by the news about the war influences their choice of destinations. Thus, an intuitive behaviour to avoid areas that are considered at risk due to the war is shown, but a panic control ability is also developed, which influences tourist behaviour both directly and as a mediator between the panic triggered by the mass media and the tourist behaviour to avoid conflict areas. Keywords: mass media, tourist behaviour, war, panic JEL Classification: Z30, L82 * Corresponding author, Claudia-Elena Țuclea – e-mail: [email protected] This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © 2024 The Author(s). AE The Influence of Mass Media on Tourist Behavior of People Living in a Country Bordering War 1194 Amfiteatru Economic Introduction The tourism sector has gone through - and continues to go through - many crises that originated in other sectors: terrorist attacks, epidemics, pandemics, natural disasters (earthquakes, floods, fires, etc.) and even wars. Each of these situations has had a temporary or long-term impact on travel in general and on travel for tourism purposes in particular (Butnaru et al., 2018), which illustrates the vulnerability of the tourism industry to crises (Dogru-Dastan and Tütüncü, 2024). Experience shows that the negative effects of a war on the tourism industry are estimated to be felt over a period of at least three years (Kozlowski, 2023). After each crisis situation, numerous analyses have measured the impact in terms of a decrease in the number of tourists and, consequently, in revenues from tourism activities. These analyses generally took place after the crises had ended. Regarding the impact of war on tourism, the literature is sparser and generally examines the evolution of the number of tourists after the end of the conflict, either from the perspective of the resumption of tourist activities or precisely with the aim of visiting a battlefield for historical interest or to recall the memory of the heroes (Young, 2021). Some areas refer to past wars to reconstruct an image of a historical place (Sewell, 2024). But aspects of tourism in wartime have been too little studied, and even less so tourism in the vicinity of war (Tkalec and Žilić, 2021). Statistics on the impact of war in Ukraine on tourism indicators have been developed by specialised organisations (e.g., IMF, 2022; UNWTO, 2022; The Warsaw Institute Review, 2022) and are continuously updated, but there are few studies on the impact that the proximity of war has on the behaviour of tourists in countries bordering the conflict. In 2020, Osiichuka and Shepotylo recommended increasing research on the impact of armed conflict on civilians outside of war zones. This study seeks to fill this gap and proposes the following research questions: What are the possible mechanisms by which the proximity of war affects the behaviour of tourists inhabiting a country adjacent to war? How does the news about the war in the media influence the behaviour of these tourists? With these questions in mind, this study examines the tourist behaviour of inhabitants of a country on the brink of war in relation to the extent to which they control their panic caused by the war and the news related to the war of the mass media. As far as the authors are aware, this is the first paper to examine the reactions of tourists from countries bordering the war in Ukraine. The results obtained once again question people's need for tourism, even in a situation where travelling means taking more risks than would be normal for a "pleasure" activity (Țuclea, 2020). Consequently, the paper continues with a literature review of tourist behaviour during a military crisis and the development of hypotheses. This is followed by a section on the methodology used for data collection and analysis and a description of the results we obtained. Finally, a section with a general discussion and conclusions follows. 1. Literature review and hypothesis development As far as the authors are aware, there are few studies in the literature on the impact of an ongoing war on tourism in a country close to the conflict. Previous research has looked at New Trends in Sustainable Business and Consumption AE Vol. 26 • Special Issue No 18 • November 2024 1195 the impact of terrorism on the tourism industry, including the impact of mass media amplification of acts of terrorism on travel (Korajlić and Kešetović, 2011). The way in which a terrorist attack is portrayed in the media shapes potential tourists' perception of certain destinations, countries, and entire regions, with the media thus exerting a strong influence on tourists' perception of risk. Risk is understood as the probability of the occurrence of negative consequences of an undesirable event that lead to changes in consumer behaviour (Li et al., 2020). Furthermore, risk creates a need for safety (engel et al., 2022), which thus becoming an important component of the intentions to visit a destination (Beirman, 2003; Dogru-Dastan and Tütüncü, 2024). Furthermore, following the recent health crisis that humanity experienced in 2020, media-induced risk perception has been investigated in terms of individual fears and adoption of preventive behaviours (Mesch and Liu, 2023; Pennington-Gray and Lee, 2024), as well as the role of social media in assessing the health safety of a destination, with tourists avoiding areas considered unsafe from a health perspective (Țuclea et al., 2020). In the same context, the tendency of tourists to travel to areas closer to home (staycation) has been observed, a form of tourism considered suitable in times of crisis (Dărăbanț and Diaconescu, 2020). In the same line, war is a factor with a negative impact on tourism, as well as terrorism or pandemics (Liu et al., 2024). The mass media play a crucial role in stimulating or reducing public panic (Yu et al., 2017), with negative news leading to a decrease in people's positive emotions and resilience and positive news leading to a decrease in negative emotions and an increase in resilience (Giri and Maurya, 2021). If the mass media amplify the impact of these factors on tourism by changing the tourists' perception of the affected destinations, then we can formulate the following hypothesis: H1. There is a direct positive relationship between media-induced panic and tourist avoidance behaviour in conflict areas. The mass media have the power to amplify and quickly disseminate information about events that can cause panic among the population (Sun et al., 2024). Thus, constant exposure to negative and alarming news can increase individuals' anxiety and stress levels (Mızrak, 2024) and ultimately lead to panic symptoms (Alasousi et al., 2023). However, people develop overt and subtle emotion regulation behaviours (including those related to panic), such as re-evaluating the situation, shifting attention to other situations, avoidance, or escape (Cisler et al., 2010). The ability to control the panic response is important to prevent it from becoming overwhelming and negatively impacting the individual's wellbeing (Meine et al., 2021). Therefore, exposure to panic information in the mass media can lead individuals to develop greater resilience and coping skills for panic states and learn to manage crisis situations more effectively (Howell et al., 2023). Therefore, it is possible that individuals exposed to high levels of media-induced panic simultaneously develop selfcontrol and stress coping skills, reinforcing the positive relationship between the two variables (Cerino et al., 2022). Based on this evidence, we can formulate the following hypothesis: H2. There is a direct positive relationship between media-induced panic and the ability to control panic. Previous studies have shown that tourists travelling to areas marked by conflict are often even attracted by the novelty of the situation (Bayramov, 2022). One such example is the border regions, which are often associated with geopolitical disputes. Many tourists are attracted to visit a politically disputed area. Many borders are integral to geopolitical AE The Influence of Mass Media on Tourist Behavior of People Living in a Country Bordering War 1196 Amfiteatru Economic tensions and conflicts, and the nature of tourist attractions links them to dark tourism, war and battlefield tourism, tourism in dangerous areas, or political tourism (Gelbman, 2022; Dresler, 2024). Tourists attracted to conflict areas seem to have in common that they do not feel panic. Alvarez et al. (2020) show that they are consequently less concerned about risks and therefore have a higher intention to visit destinations with internal conflicts. Higher levels of perceived behavioural control increase the intention to visit high-conflict destinations (Bayramov, 2022), and the lower the level of anxiety, the greater the interest in travel (Mauliza et al., 2022). Based on these results, we formulate the following hypothesis: H3. There is an inverse relationship between the ability to control the state of panic and the in tourist avoidance behaviour of conflict areas. Based on hypotheses H1-H3, we want to test whether the development of panic control mechanisms acts as a mediator between media-induced panic and tourist avoidance behaviour of war-affected areas. Thus, if mass media-induced panic leads to an intensification of tourist avoidance behaviour in conflict areas, but also determines the development of panic control mechanisms and the ability to control panic has an inverse influence on avoidance behaviour (in the sense of an increasing desire to visit conflict areas), then we formulate the following mediation hypothesis: H4. The ability to control the state of panic mediates the relationship between mediainduced panic and tourist avoidance behaviour in conflict zones. The conceptual model can be organised as shown in Figure 1. Figure no. 1. The conceptual model Caption: Solid line - direct effect; dotted line - mediating effect 2. Research methodology An online survey was conducted in Romania to collect data on the influence of war news in the mass media on the tourist behaviour of the inhabitants of a country close to war. The selection of respondents from this country is relevant for the identification of some models of tourist behaviour of people living near the conflict areas at the time of the outbreak of war. Data were collected in the months of May to June 2022, three to four months after the H2 H1 H3 Mass mediainduced panic Panic control ability Tourist avoidance behaviour H4 New Trends in Sustainable Business and Consumption AE Vol. 26 • Special Issue No 18 • November 2024 1197 outbreak of the conflict, from people over the age of 18. Such an approach to the study period is similar to that of Tomej et al. (2023), who examined the resilience of tourism businesses in the first three months after the start of the military conflict from the perspective of organisations from Ukraine operating in this industry. To test the conceptual model, several latent variables were defined, considering the literature: mass media-induced panic, the ability to control panic, and tourist behaviour to avoid conflict areas. A latent variable is constructed when the phenomenon under investigation is complex, abstract, and unobservable (Hair et al., 2017). To measure the items that define these latent variables, a Likert scale was used, ranging from 1 strongly disagree to 5 - strongly agreeing. All latent variables were operationalised as reflective constructs and developed with reference to various studies. Thus, the variable 'mass mediainduced panic' was defined based on certain studies (Li et al., 2021; Naeem, 2021; Coleman et al., 2022), using items such as: "Mass media promotes a behaviour based on panic", "Mass media promotes a state of anxiety related to the lack of products or services in the market as a result of war". The variable 'ability to control panic' was formed based on certain research (Li et al., 2021; Tan et al., 2022) by the items: "I can control the state of panic that may arise due to the war", " I have total control over my behaviour even under the influence of war-related panic". The variable 'tourist behaviour to avoid conflict areas' was based on items such as: "I have given up visiting areas in conflict countries" and "I have turned to tourist destinations that are as far away from the war zone as possible", building on studies such as those by Tkalec and Žilić (2021) and Upadhayaya et al. (2011). The sample consists of 1036 respondents, 53.3% women and 46.7% men, 14.1% born in 1965 or before, 33.6% between 1966-1979, 31.7% between 1980-1995, and 20.7% after 1995. The respondents were selected using the snowball method. This is a nonprobability sampling method that allows the original participants to recommend other people who have the desired characteristics of the target population to participate in the research (Nunan et al., 2020). Partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) with Smart-PLS 4.0 (Ringle et al., 2022) was applied to test the conceptual model. This technique is used to assess the cause-effect relationship between the latent variables and is a combination of multiple regression and factor analysis (Hair et al., 2017). The choice of this method for testing the conceptual model is justified by the fact that it aims to maximise the explained variance of the dependent latent constructs (Hair et al., 2011) and thus has an important explanatory and predictive value at the level of the phenomena under investigation. A structural equation model consists of two components: the measurement model, which assesses the relationships between each latent construct and its associated indicators, and the structural model, which assesses the relationships between the latent constructs (Hair et al., 2011). For models with five or fewer constructs, some of which are defined by fewer than three indicators, Nunan et al. (2020) recommend a sample of at least 300 subjects. In the case of the present study, the sample size is well above the recommended value. To assess the suitability of measurement, the reliability and validity of the constructs must be demonstrated. For the constructs to be reliable, Cronbach's alpha, the composite reliability (rho_c), and the reliability coefficient (rho_a) should be higher than the value 0.7 (Hair et al., 2021). Table 1 shows that this criterion is met for all latent variables. AE The Influence of Mass Media on Tourist Behavior of People Living in a Country Bordering War 1198 Amfiteatru Economic Table no. 1. Construct reliability and validity Latent variable Cronbach's Alpha Reliability coefficient (rho_a) Composite reliability (rho_c) Average variance extracted (AVE) Mass media-induced panic 0.827 0.827 0.920 0.852 Panic control ability 0.776 0.795 0.898 0.816 Tourist avoidance behaviour 0.741 0.747 0.885 0.794 Convergent validity is demonstrated by assessing the extracted average variance (AVE), which must exceed the threshold value of 0.5 (Nunan et al., 2020). Thus, the construct explains at least 50% of the variance of the indicators that define it (Hair et al., 2014). As shown in Table 1, this condition is met. Another measure of convergent validity is the outer loadings, which should be statistically significant and exceed the value of 0.5, ideally greater than 0.7 (Nunan et al., 2020). In the present study, all outer loadings are greater than 0.7, so this condition of convergent validity is met. Each latent variable must differ from the other latent variables to prove the discriminant validity of the construct (Malhotra et al., 2017). One measure of this is the Fornell-Larcker criterion (Fornell-Larcker, 1981), in which the square root of the average variance extracted for each latent variable is greater than all correlations between it and the other latent variables (Table 2). Table no. 2. Fornell-Larcker criterion Latent variable Mass mediainduced panic Panic control ability Tourism avoidance behaviour Mass media-induced panic 0.923 Panic control ability 0.323 0.903 Tourist avoidance behaviour 0.146 0.111 0.891 Another measure of discriminant validity is the heterotrait–monotrait ratio (HTMT) matrix. The results in Table 3 show that all values are below the threshold value of 0.85 (Hair et al., 2017), demonstrating that discriminant validity is achieved. Table no. 3. The heterotrait–monotrait ratio (HTMT) matrix Mass media induced panic Panic control ability Tourism avoidance behaviour Mass media induced panic Panic control ability 0.400 Tourist avoidance behaviour 0.186 0.144 The model is not affected by collinearity issues, as all values of the variance inflation factor (VIF) are below the cut-off point of 5 (Hair et al., 2017). 3. Research findings and discussion To test the research hypotheses, the relationships between the latent variables were assessed. The strength of the relationships is estimated by the path coefficients, and their statistical significance was determined by performing a bootstrapping procedure. The results of the hypotheses tested are shown in Table 4. New Trends in Sustainable Business and Consumption AE Vol. 26 • Special Issue No 18 • November 2024 1199 Table no. 4. Tested hypotheses Relationship Path coefficient (β) t test P value Result H1: Mass media-induced panic -> Tourist avoidance behaviour 0.124 3.658 0.000 Supported H2: Mass media-induced panic -> Panic control ability 0.323 10.339 0.000 Supported H3: Panic control ability -> Tourist avoidance behaviour 0.071 2.006 0.045 Not supported Based on these findings, the resulting model is shown in Figure 2. Figure no. 2. The resulting model Caption: Black line – accepted hypothesis; red line – hypothesis not accepted; CI confidence interval Regarding the relationship between mass media-induced panic and tourist avoidance behaviour, this relationship is statistically significant (β=0.124, p<0.01). The panic triggered by the media has a positive influence on the behaviour of avoidance of tourists, which means that hypothesis H1 is accepted. The more intense the panic induced by the mass media, the more people avoid visiting the neighbouring conflict areas for tourism purposes. The panic caused by the mass media influences the ability to control war-related panic. The more intense the panic induced by the mass media, the greater the ability to deal with this challenge, as people are better prepared to control the panic. The strength of this relationship is rather moderate (β=0.323, p<0.01), so hypothesis H2 is accepted. The ability to control panic caused by military conflict has no inverse effect (β=0.071, p<0.05) on tourist avoidance behaviour, but a direct one, of low strength. Therefore, even if people are better prepared to control war-related panic, they tend to avoid conflict areas for tourism purposes and travel far from these areas. Consequently, Hypothesis H3 is not supported. Mediation analysis To test the mediation role of the variable ’panic control ability’ between the variables ’mass media-induced panic’ and ’tourist avoidance behaviour’, direct and indirect effects were determined by a bias-corrected bootstrapping procedure on 5000 subsamples, whereby this β=0.323 p<0.05 β=0.124 p<0.05 β= 0.071 p<0.05 Mass mediainduced panic Panic control ability Tourist avoidance behaviour Indirect effect β=0.023 p<0.1 95% CI: [0.001; 0.047] AE The Influence of Mass Media on Tourist Behavior of People Living in a Country Bordering War 1200 Amfiteatru Economic resampling approach leads to more precise confidence limits (MacKinnon et al., 2004). (Table 5). Table no. 5. Mediation analysis Note: *p < 0.1; *** p < 0.01 The ability to control panic acts as a mediator between mass media-induced panic and tourist avoidance behaviour, considering that the direct effect is significant (β=0.124, p<0.01) and the indirect effect is marginally significant (β=0.047, p=0.054). Since the 95% confidence interval for the indirect effect does not include the value 0, this effect is considered significant (Zhao et al., 2010), and there is a partial mediation (Nitzl et al., 2016). Therefore, the ability to control war-related panic reduces the impact of negative media news on the tourist avoidance behaviour. The results show that the panic caused by news about the war in the mass media impacts the tourism behaviour of citizens, who avoid areas close to the conflict and choose destinations that are further away and, therefore, considered safer. As in the case of the health crisis, tourists seek safety (Carballo et al., 2022), while the media tend to emphasise risks and uncertainties during a crisis, creating a state of fear and panic (Kilgo et al., 2019). The media can create panic through war news, which usually has negative connotations. Tan and Cheng (2024) show that more than 50% of main stream media articles linking tourism to the Russia-Ukraine war contained a negative emotional frame. The tendency to avoid destinations in war zones due to exposure to panic-inducing news is also consistent with Scharbert et al. (2024), who found that after the start of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, citizens of 17 European countries outside the conflict area experienced a decrease in well-being as information about the war was more salient in social media. However, a positive aspect is that as the panic created by the mass media intensifies, people develop strategies and mechanisms to control the state of panic (Meine et al., 2021). We had expected that due to the increased ability to control panic, tourists would reduce their intention to choose destinations further away from the conflict zone (Mauliza et al., 2022), but the results showed the opposite. This result seems to be consistent with the findings of Dogru-Dastan and Tütüncü (2024), who showed that tourists consider a destination safe again if terrorist attacks are not repeated at short intervals and if sufficient time passes without other events. As war is an ongoing process, tourists feel the need to travel to areas further away from the site of armed conflict. Consequently, hypothesis H3 was rejected, suggesting that although people develop the ability to control panic, this does not cause them to avoid areas considered risky due to war. On the contrary, tourists continue to avoid these areas even when they control their mediainduced panic. This fact could indicate that this panic control works more psychologically, as people strive for a state of well-being, but this fact does not lead them to make decisions that they consider risky. 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