Nu , Lena; Koné, Si a; Opi z-S aple on, Sa ah; Panwa , Vik an ; Ba e, Mohamed
Resea ch Repo
Assessing and inancing loss and damage due o clima e
change in Somalia
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
ODI Global, London
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Nu , Lena; Koné, Si a; Opi z-S aple on, Sa ah; Panwa , Vik an ; Ba e, Mohamed
(2024) : Assessing and inancing loss and damage due o clima e change in Somalia, SPARC,
London, UK,
h ps://www.spa c-knowledge.o g/publica ions- esou ces/assessing-and- inancing-loss-and-
damage-due-clima e-change-somalia
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
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TECHNICAL REPORT
ASSESSING AND
FINANCING LOSS AND
DAMAGE DUE TO CLIMATE
CHANGE IN SOMALIA
Lena Nu , Si a Koné, Sa ah Opi z-S aple on, Vik an Panwa and Mohamed Ba e
Sep embe 2024
Acknowledgemen s
This echnical epo is published h ough he Suppo ing
Pas o alism and Ag icul u e in Recu en and P o ac ed C isis
(SPARC) p og amme, which is suppo ed by he Uni ed Kingdom’s
Fo eign, Commonweal h & De elopmen O ice (FCDO).
The au ho s a e g a e ul o D Abdulahi Khali , Manisha Gula i,
Yue Cao and Mau i Vazquez o help ul con e sa ions, guidance
and inpu s h oughou he incep ion and w i ing p ocess. We also
hank Emma Lo ell, Julie G ady Thomas and Zoë Windle o hei
suppo in p oducing and publishing he epo , Ruby Cowling o
copyedi ing and Vale ie Geige o igu e design and ypese ing.
Abou SPARC
Clima e change, a med con lic , en i onmen al agili y and weak
go e nance, and he impac hese ha e on na u al esou ce-based
li elihoods, a e among he key d i e s o bo h c isis and po e y o
communi ies in some o he wo ld’s mos ulne able and con lic -
a ec ed coun ies.
SPARC aims o gene a e e idence and add ess knowledge gaps o
build he esilience o millions o pas o alis s, ag opas o alis s and
a me s in hese communi ies in sub-Saha an A ica and he Middle
Eas .
We s i e o c ea e impac by using esea ch and e idence o
de elop knowledge ha imp o es how he FCDO, dono s, non-
go e nmen al o ganisa ions, local and na ional go e nmen s, and
ci il socie y can empowe hese communi ies in he con ex o
clima e change.
How o ci e: SPARC (2024) Assessing and inancing loss and
damage due o clima e change in Somalia. London, UK: SPARC
(h ps://www.spa c-knowledge.o g/publica ions- esou ces/
assessing-and- inancing-loss-and-damage-due-clima e-change-
somalia)
This wo k is licensed unde CC BY-NC-ND 4.0.
3SPARC Suppo ing Pas o alism and Ag icul u e in Recu en and P o ac ed C ises
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Boxes, igu es and ables 4
Ac onyms 5
1 In oduc ion 6
2 Clima e ex emes, change and ulne abili y in Somalia 9
2.1 Somalia’s ecen clima e con ex : wha do he a ibu ion s udies say? 9
2.2 Clima e change p ojec ions o Somalia 10
2.3 Somalia’s clima e ulne abili y con ex 11
3 Loss and damage om clima e change in Somalia 14
3.1 Di ec a ibu able human and economic loss and damage om
ex eme e en s 14
3.2 Indi ec economic and non-economic losses and damages om
ex eme wea he e en s 18
3.2.1 En i onmen al impac s and biodi e si y loss 18
3.2.2 Con lic and displacemen 18
3.2.3 Human heal h 19
3.3 P ojec ed u u e clima e-a ibu able isks ela ed o ex eme e en s 19
3.4 Fu u e di ec and indi ec loss and damage om slow-onse e en s 20
3.4.1 Changes in seasonal and annual ain all 20
3.4.2 Sea-le el ise and wa me coas al wa e s 20
4 Finance o add essing clima e- ela ed losses and damages in Somalia 21
5 Conclusions and policy ecommenda ions 23
Re e ences 25
4SPARC Suppo ing Pas o alism and Ag icul u e in Recu en and P o ac ed C ises
BOXES, FIGURES AND TABLES
i em Ti le p
Box 1 Me hodology o clima e-a ibu able di ec economic loss and damage 7
Figu e 1 Dimensions o loss and damage om ex eme e en s and slow-onse p ocesses 6
Figu e 2 Vulne abili y and clima e e en s leads o impac s 11
Figu e 3 Ex eme and slow-onse e en s igge losses and damages 13
Figu e 4 Numbe o dea hs and people a ec ed om d ough s and loods in Somalia 15
Figu e 5 Shock imeline in Somalia, 2019–2022 17
Table 1 Clima e change a ibu ion in majo lood and d ough e en s, 2000–2023 10
Table 2 P ojec ions o u u e d ough and ex eme ain all impac s in Somalia 19
5SPARC Suppo ing Pas o alism and Ag icul u e in Recu en and P o ac ed C ises
ACRONYMS
Ac onym de ini ion
ARC A ican Risk Capaci y
EEA Ex eme e en a ibu ion
ENSO El Niño Sou he n Oscilla ion
FAR F ac ions o a ibu able isk
IOD Indian Ocean Dipole
NDC Na ionally De e mined Con ibu ion
PDNA Pos -disas e needs assessmen
UNFCCC Uni ed Na ions F amewo k Con en ion on Clima e Change
6SPARC Suppo ing Pas o alism and Ag icul u e in Recu en and P o ac ed C ises
1 INTRODUCTION
1 Fo simplici y, we use ‘ex eme e en ’ h oughou he es o his epo as a ca ch-all o e e o bo h ex eme
wea he e en (e.g. loods o s o ms) and ex eme clima e e en s (e.g. d ough s pe sis ing o e one o mo e
seasons).
Somalia is al eady expe iencing signi ican losses and damages om human-induced clima e
change. The di ec economic impac s om ex eme clima e e en s1 such as d ough s and
loods a ec i al sec o s like ag icul u e and li es ock. Ag icul u e, including he li es ock
sec o , is Somalia’s la ges employe and second-la ges commodi y expo . Nea ly one ou h
o he popula ion a e ag opas o alis s, wi h smallholde a ming making up app oxima ely
80% o o al c op p oduc ion and 70% o ma ke ed p oduce. Mo e han 60% o he Somali
popula ion depends on li es ock, which con ibu es 40% o he coun y’s GDP (Go e nmen
o Somalia, 2018a).
Losses and damages can esul om ex eme wea he and clima e e en s ha occu o e
a ela i ely sho ime — such as loods, hea wa es and d ough s. They can also s em
om slow-onse p ocesses like inc easing empe a u es and shi ing p ecipi a ion pa e ns
in seasons, sea-le el ise o ocean acidi ica ion. These slow-onse p ocesses, in u n, can
con ibu e o dese i ica ion, biodi e si y loss, land and o es deg ada ion, and salinisa ion o
coas al wa e and soils. Losses and damages om ex eme and slow-onse e en s mani es
in a ious o ms, including di ec and indi ec losses and damages, and economic and non-
economic losses and damages (Figu e 1).
FIGURE 1: DIMENSIONS OF LOSS AND DAMAGE FROM EXTREME EVENTS
AND SLOW-ONSET PROCESSES
Di ec
Di ec loss es and damages a e
i s o de impac s o physical
asse s (e .g . buildings,
in as uc u e), public se ices and
non-quan i i able aspec s .
Economic
Economic loss es and damages
a e mone a ily quan i i able loss es
o physical asse s, se ices and
goods ha a e commonly aded .
Non-economic
Non-economic losses and
damages a e diffi cul o assign a
mone a y alue, such as loss o
li e o cul u al he i age, o damage
o ecosys em se ices.
Indi ec
Indi ec losses a e he seconda y,
cascading e ec s o di ec economic
and non-economic losses and damages
ha con inue un il asse s and sys ems
a e es o ed. Some non-economic losses
can ne e ully be es o ed and may ha e
pe manen indi ec e ec s .
7SPARC Suppo ing Pas o alism and Ag icul u e in Recu en and P o ac ed C ises
BOX 1: METHODOLOGY FOR CLIMATE-ATTRIBUTABLE DIRECT ECONOMIC
LOSS AND DAMAGE
This epo ollows Newman and Noy (2023) and Panwa e al. (2023) in using
in o ma ion om ex eme e en a ibu ion (EEA) s udies o es ima e he plausible
clima e change-a ibu able di ec economic loss and damage igge ed by ex eme
e en s in Somalia.
Loss and damage igu es o his epo a e es ima ed om he eco ds o numbe
o dea hs, numbe o people a ec ed, and o al economic damage a ailable in he
EM-DAT da abase (CRED, n.d. (www.emda .be)). The ex apola ion o ag icul u e losses
and damages is based on a e age con ibu ion o he ag icul u e sec o o he o al
economic loss and damages epo ed ac oss pos -disas e needs assessmen s udies
ha we e conduc ed be ween 2008 and 2024 in he Sahel and G ea e Ho n o A ica
egion.
To quan i y he sha e o loss and damage plausibly linked wi h clima e change, hese
socioeconomic cos s a e hen mul iplied wi h ac ions o a ibu able isk (o FAR,
o sho ). The FAR is calcula ed based on in o ma ion om ex eme e en a ibu ion
s udies. I ep esen s he a io o he p obabili y o he clima e ex eme occu ing
wi h and wi hou clima e change. Fo u he de ails abou his me hodology and i s
limi a ions, please e e o Panwa e al. (2023).
I is impo an o keep in mind ha he o als p esen ed in his b ie a e likely signi ican
unde es ima es o he ac ual d ough - and lood- ela ed loss and damage in Somalia.
This is because loss and damage om pas e en s is known o be unde epo ed in
disas e impac da abases like EM-DAT, especially o : (1) ce ain geog aphies (including
Somalia and o he coun ies on he A ican con inen ), (2) some indica o s (especially
economic impac ), (3) ela i ely small local e en s ha may no d aw much a en ion
on hei own, bu ha could ha e high cumula i e impac , and (4) speci ic haza ds ha
a e impo an in Somalia (including d ough and hea wa es) (EM-DAT, n.d.; Panwa and
Sen, 2020; Enenkel e al., 2024).
Es ima ing clima e-a ibu able losses and damages is essen ial o ensu ing hey a e
app op ia ely add essed h ough na ional and in e na ional policy, inance and ac ion. Howe e ,
pas e o s o quan i y hem ha e o en o e looked he ex en o which clima e change plays
an a ibu able ole in exace ba ing he in ensi y and/o equency o ex eme e en s. This
dis inc ion, hough complex, is c ucial o shaping app op ia e ins i u ional esponses and
inancing mechanisms unde he UNFCCC. Despi e imp o emen s in da a a ailabili y and
a ibu ion science, he e emains a sca ci y o assessmen s ha quan i y clima e change-
a ibu able loss and damage, pa icula ly in da a-poo con ex s like Somalia. This gap
in knowledge hinde s e ec i e policy o mula ion and access o in e na ional suppo .
8SPARC Suppo ing Pas o alism and Ag icul u e in Recu en and P o ac ed C ises
To help add ess his gap, his epo has wo main objec i es:
To p o ide na ional-le el policy-make s in Somalia wi h new es ima es o cu en and
po en ial u u e di ec economic clima e-a ibu able loss and damage, o suppo na ional
planning and in e na ional ad ocacy o loss and damage inance. The epo ecognises
ha di ec economic losses and damages a e only pa o he o al cos s o clima e change.
The e o e, i also discusses e idence on he indi ec economic and non-economic impac s
o ex eme and slow-onse e en s.
To sugges ecommenda ions o Somali policy-make s and he in e na ional inance
communi y o add essing loss and damage and dealing wi h iden i ied loss and damage
da a gaps.
The epo is o ganised as ollows: he second sec ion discusses clima e change in Somalia;
he hi d p esen s e idence on he di e en dimensions o loss and damage in he coun y; he
ou h sec ion discusses how loss and damage is cu en ly being add essed and inanced; and
he inal sec ion p o ides ecommenda ions. A synopsis o he me hodology o calcula ing
losses and damages is p esen ed in he Box 1; o a mo e comple e desc ip ion, see Panwa
e al. (2023).
Ha geisa li es ock ma ke buying and selling. C edi ILRI Pe e Ballan yne
15 SPARC Suppo ing Pas o alism and Ag icul u e in Recu en and P o ac ed C ises
FIGURE 4: NUMBER OF DEATHS AND PEOPLE AFFECTED FROM DROUGHTS AND FLOODS
IN SOMALIA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
To al dea hs
2022
2020
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
A ibu ed dea hs
Numbe o human dea hs
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0 To al people a ec ed
2022
2020
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
A ibu ed people a ec ed
Numbe o people (millions)
FIGURE 2: NUMBER OF DEATHS AND PEOPLE AFFECTED FROM DROUGHTS AND FLOODS IN SOMALIA
Sou ce: Au ho s’ analysis, based on disas e damage eco ds o EM-DAT, using global a e age ac ions o a ibu able
isk o loods and d ough s. No e: yea s 2000, 2001, 2002, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2021 ha e no epo ed
dea hs in he EM-DAT da abase and a e likely missing da a.
16 SPARC Suppo ing Pas o alism and Ag icul u e in Recu en and P o ac ed C ises
The 2016–2017 d ough pushed 20 million people in o acu e ood insecu i y in E hiopia,
Kenya and Somalia (Lung e al., 2021). The d ough se e ely a ec ed ag icul u e and li es ock
sec o s in Somalia, causing es ima ed c op and li es ock p oduc ion losses o $1.7 billion and
damages o c ops and om deceased li es ock o $350.7 million (Go e nmen o Somalia,
2018a). As he d ough was un olding, Saudi A abia imposed a li es ock impo ban on animals
om Somalia due o suspicions o Ri Valley Fe e . This led o a decline in he alue o Somali
expo s, o which he li es ock ade ypically accoun s o abou 80% o he o al. The ban
con ibu ed o a decline in cu ency and wo sened he ex e nal ade balance a a ime when
Somalia was ha ing o impo ood o mee basic ood equi emen s (ibid.).
Pa s o he coun y had li le chance o eco e om he impac s o he 2016–2017 d ough
be o e being impac ed by a widesp ead locus plague (ac oss many pa s o he Ho n o
A ica). Ha es ailu es and c op losses allowed li le economic espi e, pa icula ly in he
no he n pa o he coun y (Le ine e al., 2023).
Somalia was hi again wi h an ex ended d ough o e i e ailed ainy seasons be ween 2020
and 2022. Fa me s and he de s los la ge sha es o hei ag icul u al income, plunging en i e
communi ies in o po e y. O e eigh million people, almos hal he coun y’s popula ion, we e
le acu ely ood insecu e. Some 3.7 million people we e in e nally displaced in sea ch o ood
and odde (FEWS NET, 2023). The di ec economic losses and damages we e exace ba ed
by concu en , cascading economic impac s o he COVID-19 pandemic (Le ine e al., 2023).
The d ough s we e ollowed by Dey loods in 2023, which decima ed eco e ing a ming and
li es ock ac i i ies in cen al and sou he n Somalia and con ibu ed o some $126.6 million in
damages and $49.5 million in losses (SoDMA, 2024). The cumula i e e ec o he p olonged
2021–2023 d ough ollowed by looding was o push ou million people (21% o
he popula ion) in o eme gency ood insecu i y.
On a e age, di ec economic impac s om d ough s and loods in Somalia amoun ed o 7.9%
o he coun y’s GDP be ween 2000 and 2021, excluding he 2010 d ough e en . Abou hal
(3.3% o GDP) o hese o al losses and damages could be a ibu able o clima e change.
Including he 2010/2011 d ough , which led o economic damages2 o o e $4 billion, his
p opo ion o a ibu able loss and damage ises o 8.4% o GDP. Fu he mo e, on a e age
be ween 2000–2021 hese a ibu able di ec economic losses and damages a e equal o 86%
o go e nmen e enues wi hou he 2010 d ough e en (o e 200% o go e nmen e enues
including he 2010 d ough e en ). This compa ison indica es he inancial challenges he
Go e nmen o Somalia is acing, con on ed wi h he economic consequences o ex eme
e en s – pa icula ly when he e a e concu en shocks o c ises such as he COVID-19
pandemic o ongoing insecu i y – while ying o ind budge o p omo e clima e- esilien
socioeconomic de elopmen .
2 The economic damages he e exclude clima e-a ibu able s a is ical loss o li e (SLOL) o $4.1 billion.
17 SPARC Suppo ing Pas o alism and Ag icul u e in Recu en and P o ac ed C ises
FIGURE 5: SHOCK TIMELINE IN SOMALIA, 2019–2022
Gu ains Dey ains
No e: No all pa s o Somalia we e a ec ed o he same ex en by each o hese shocks.
Sou ce: Figu e 6, Le ine e al. (2023).
18 SPARC Suppo ing Pas o alism and Ag icul u e in Recu en and P o ac ed C ises
3.2 Indi ec economic and non-economic losses and damages
om ex eme wea he e en s
The di ec impac s o ex eme e en s can igge cascading, indi ec economic and non-
economic losses and damages. Flooding may des oy o damage oads and anspo
in as uc u e; his limi s access o ma ke s and hampe s a ming and pas o al ade
ac i i ies. Damaged in as uc u e can ha e cascading indi ec economic losses ha
inc ease he cos o anspo ing c ops/li es ock o ma ke s. These ma ke dis up ions can
in u n con ibu e o p ice ola ili y h ough commodi ies sho ages and knock-on e ec s on
p oduce s, anspo e s and he pu chasing powe o consume s (FAO, 2021; OCHA, 2021).
The simul aneous damage and des uc ion o c ops/li es ock p oduc s educes incomes and
abili ies o pu chase commodi ies, a a ime in which p ices may ha e isen, and can con ibu e
u he o ood insecu i y. The des uc ion o in as uc u e can u he ha e cascading e ec s,
such as hampe ing access o essen ial se ices and o he imely deli e y o humani a ian
assis ance du ing eme gencies (Go e nmen o Somalia, 2024).
The di ec impac s o d ough can also igge cascading, indi ec losses and damages.
D ough s can educe he quali y and quan i y o g assland odde o li es ock, as well as wa e
a ailabili y (Le ine e al., 2023; Go e nmen o Somalia, 2021). Such dis up ions comp omise
li es ock heal h and mo ali y, and a ec milk and mea p oduc ion, u he impac ing incomes
and ood secu i y (Le ine e al., 2021). Hea wa es can igge hea s ess in li es ock, leading
o educed eed in ake, lowe milk p oduc ion, and g ea e disease suscep ibili y (Das e al.,
2016; Rahimi e al., 2021).
The e a e also signi ican non-economic losses and damages anging om loss o li es, loss
o cul u al he i age, men al and physical heal h impac s, mig a ion and displacemen , and loss
o ecosys em and biodi e si y (Abebe e al., 2023). Howe e , non-economic losses a e di icul
o quan i y and a e cu en ly conside ed only o a limi ed ex en in loss and damage es ima es
and inancing amewo ks. The ypes o non-economic losses and damages ha ha e been
associa ed wi h ex eme wea he e en s in Somalia include:
3.2.1 En i onmen al impac s and biodi e si y loss
D ough s, loods, and s o ms con ibu e o de o es a ion, soil e osion, dese i ica ion, and
biodi e si y loss (FAO, 2021). Somalia al eady aces signi ican challenges wi h soil e osion due
o poo ag icul u al p ac ices (Go e nmen o Somalia, 2021), and high a es o de o es a ion
o cha coal p oduc ion (Gula i e al., 2023). Flooding in pa icula exace ba es human-caused
deg ada ion ac i i ies; lood scou ing accele a es soil e osion and wa e logging con ibu es o
nu ien leaching, he eby educing soil e ili y and ag icul u al p oduc ion.
3.2.2 Con lic and displacemen
Ex eme e en s a e also a ac o o displacemen and can exace ba e some ypes o con lic ,
wi h p o ound epe cussions o cul u al he i age and social cohesion as people seek
al e na i e li elihood oppo uni ies and coping s a egies in he a eas o which hey ha e been
displaced. While con lic and iolence ha e been he p ima y d i e s o in e nal displacemen in
Somalia o decades, ex eme e en s ha e become mo e signi ican igge s o displacemen
in ecen yea s. La ge-scale displacemen , including ha igge ed by ex eme e en s, has
also been linked o lack o accina ion, gende -based iolence o women and gi ls, and
men al heal h p oblems in Somalia and o he coun ies in he egion (Lind all e al., 2020).
19 SPARC Suppo ing Pas o alism and Ag icul u e in Recu en and P o ac ed C ises
Fu he mo e, ex eme e en s ha e con ibu ed o compe i ion o e access o wa e , land and
g azing a eas in Somalia (Albany, 2022; Go e nmen o Somalia, 2018b).
3.2.3 Human heal h
Declining ag icul u al p oduc i i y and li es ock losses ha e con ibu ed o ood insecu i y and
malnu i ion among Somalia’s a ming and pas o al communi ies (Go e nmen o Somalia,
2018b). D ough s and loods can educe access o clean d inking wa e and – in combina ion
wi h inadequa e sani a ion acili ies – inc ease he isk o ec o - and wa e bo ne diseases
such as chole a, dia hoea, mala ia, and dengue e e (ibid.). Childhood malnu i ion du ing
d ough s is linked o high mo ali y and hampe s child en’s long- e m physical and men al
de elopmen po en ial (ibid.)
3.3 P ojec ed u u e clima e-a ibu able isks ela ed o
ex eme e en s
Di ec and indi ec economic losses and damages may inc ease in he u u e due o clima e
change in he absence o s eng hened adap a ion ac ion, especially in he case o lood-
ela ed impac s. This could esul in p ojec ed cumula i e a ibu able di ec economic loss
and damage o $24–$27 million om loods by he 2050s, o up o a o al o $1.2 billion i
s a is ical loss o li e (SLOL) is conside ed in addi ion o economic damages. In he case o
me eo ological d ough , cumula i e a ibu able loss and damage may each $5.0–$5.4 billion
by he 2050s, o $91.2–$98.8 billion when SLOL is also included in he es ima e. These igu es
do no include any indi ec impac s o non-economic impac s om d ough s and loods, so
hey a e likely a se e e unde es ima e o he o al po en ial u u e loss and damage.
TABLE 2: PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE DROUGHT AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS
IN SOMALIA
2050s p ojec ed cumula i e a ibu able loss and damage
Floods D ough s
Di e en scena ios indica ing a 1.9% o 8%
inc ease in he p obabili y o a 1-in-50 yea
5-day ain all e en occu ing
Di e en scena ios indica ing a -2% o +20%
inc ease in he p obabili y o a me eo ological
d ough occu ing
Economic damage only, excluding s a is ical loss o li e
$24–$27 million $5.0–$5.4 billion
To al economic damage and s a is ical loss o li e
$1.1–$1.2 billion $91.2–$98.8 billion
No e: Es ima es a e based on mul i-model clima e expe imen s using he scena ios SSP2–4.5 / RCP 4.5 and SSP2–8.5
/ RCP 8.5 o Eas A ica and Somalia.
Sou ces: Haile e al. (2020), Gu ié ez e al. (2021), Sene i a ne e al. (2021) and Wo ld Bank (2021).
20 SPARC Suppo ing Pas o alism and Ag icul u e in Recu en and P o ac ed C ises
3.4 Fu u e di ec and indi ec loss and damage om slow-onse e en s
Al hough hei impac s may be less isible o immedia e compa ed o mo e sudden-onse
ex eme e en s, slow-onse e en s, such as sea-le el ise o inc easing dese i ica ion and
shi ing seasons, can cause p o ound and long-las ing losses and damages. In con as wi h
ex eme e en impac s, which a e compa a i ely well documen ed, e idence on loss and
damage ela ed o slow-onse e en s is mo e limi ed in Somalia (and beyond) (Pichon e al.,
o hcoming). This sec ion p o ides an o e iew o di e en slow-onse e en s and discusses
he a ailable e idence on ela ed losses and damages o Somalia.
3.4.1 Changes in seasonal and annual ain all
Rising empe a u es and inc eased ain all a iabili y p esen signi ican challenges o
he ag icul u e and li es ock sec o s in Somalia, including o c op yield po en ial. Mean
empe a u es o 1% abo e no mal ha e been ound o esul in a e age ce eal c op losses o
a ound 11.5% be ween 1985 and 2006 (Wa same e al., 2021). In he u u e, highe empe a u es
could lead o a decline in yields, especially o c ops such as maize o whea ha a e ela i ely
ulne able o changes in he clima e (Richa dson e al., 2022). Howe e , he e a e s ill high
unce ain ies in p ojec ions o he di ec ion and ex en o change in u u e yields o majo s aple
c ops such as ice, maize, cowpeas, mille and so ghum in Somalia (Binde e al., 2022).
Wa me empe a u es and highe ain all du ing he ainy seasons in luence c op pes
beha iou . In 2019–2020, ho wea he con ibu ed o a majo dese locus ou b eak which
des oyed housands o hec a es o pas u es and c opland ac oss Eas A ica, including
Somalia (Le ine e al., 2023; OCHA, 2021). The p ojec ed changes in empe a u es and ain all
pa e ns may u he inc ease he likelihood o such e en s by enabling a ou able condi ions
o he b eeding, de elopmen and mig a ion o dese locus s in he Ho n o A ica in he
u u e (IPPC Sec e a ia , 2021).
O e all highe day- and nigh - ime empe a u es in all seasons s ess li es ock, esul ing in
inc eased mo ali y – especially o young and bi hing animals – and educed milk p oduc ion
(Das e al., 2016; Rahimi e al., 2021). Highe empe a u es accele a e he e apo anspi a ion
o odde ege a ion and wa e a ailabili y, hus con ibu ing o li es ock losses and a ec ing
pas o alis s’ mobili y pa e ns (Binde e al., 2022; Gula i e al., 2023). None heless, he ex en
o which angeland p oduc i i y will be impac ed h ough he 2050s is di icul o ex apola e.
This is because land use and li es ock managemen pa e ns, insecu i y and land enu e
in luence how well angeland ecosys ems and pas o alis s can adap o ho e condi ions
(Gula i e al.,2023).
3.4.2 Sea-le el ise and wa me coas al wa e s
Likely impac s om sea-le el ise in Somalia include in as uc u e damage and loss om
coas al looding, and sal wa e in usion in o coas al a eas, leading o loss o ag icul u al and
g azing lands, and con amina ing eshwa e aqui e s and impac ing u ban a eas like Mogadishu
(Go e nmen o Somalia, 2018b). The sou he n pa o Somalia is pa icula ly ulne able and
exposed o hese impac s because coas al ele a ion is lowe , popula ion densi y is highe ,
and ege a ion co e is declining due o de o es a ion and o he human ac i i y (Go e nmen
o Somalia, 2018b; El-Shaha e al., 2021). Fishing-based li elihoods and cul u al he i age
a e al eady h ea ened by o eign ishing lee s; wa me coas al wa e s a e con ibu ing o
ex ensi e co al bleaching, ocean acidi ica ion and ha m ul algal blooms ha will inc ease unde
clima e change and could u he decima e such li elihoods (Go e nmen o Somalia, 2018b).
21 SPARC Suppo ing Pas o alism and Ag icul u e in Recu en and P o ac ed C ises
4 FINANCE FOR ADDRESSING
CLIMATE-RELATED LOSSES
AND DAMAGES IN SOMALIA
Impac s om clima e change – including loss and damage om ex eme e en s and
slow-onse p ocesses – a e al eady o e whelming he abso p i e capaci ies o he Somali
popula ion and he na ional go e nmen . In combina ion wi h high unde lying ulne abili ies
and ongoing con lic and agili y, e en s such as he ecen d ough s and loods can u n in o
p o ac ed c ises and amines. They also deepen he coun y’s dependence on mul ila e al and
bila e al dono in lows and ad hoc humani a ian assis ance, as Somalia’s own limi ed iscal
base is no s ong enough o abso b shocks; no o enable su icien adap a ion in es men s.
The Fede al Go e nmen ’s budge is equi alen o only abou 4% o GDP, compa ed o a e age
go e nmen expendi u e o o e 20% ac oss sub-Saha an A ica (IMF, 2024). O his, jus abou
hal is domes ic e enue while he o he hal consis s o dono g an s (Go e nmen o Somalia,
2018a), and di ec economic loss and damage has accoun ed o an annual a e age o 86%
o go e nmen e enues.
Relie e o s in Somalia ha e, o da e, la gely been unded h ough in e na ional humani a ian
appeals. In 2023, o ins ance, humani a ian ac o s eques ed $2.6 billion, o e wice as much
as he amoun eques ed in 2021, o add ess d ough impac s. Howe e , human secu i y needs
can be di icul o an icipa e and humani a ian unding is o en ch onically unde - esou ced
(De elopmen Ini ia i es, 2023). Fu he mo e, unlike annual humani a ian aid alloca ions o
p o ac ed c ises, which a e ela i ely s able (Saez and B yan , 2023), humani a ian eme gency
assis ance ends o be ocused on la ge-scale e en s ha a ac signi ican media a en ion
(Sco e al., 2021). This cha ac e isa ion does no usually apply o mo e equen , localised
e en s. No does i apply o he slow-onse changes o which he impac s a e ha de o ace
and which could be be e managed h ough clima e- esilien de elopmen . Those impac s
ha emain unadd essed by he go e nmen and humani a ian ins i u ions a e ul ima ely
imposed on he Somali popula ion.
Mo e ecen ly, he Fede al Go e nmen o Somalia has s a ed o ecognise he po en ial
suppo ha may be a ailable o add ess u u e loss and damage h ough in e na ional
unding mechanisms – unde he UNFCCC and beyond. This includes, o ins ance, he new
Loss and Damage Fund ha was ag eed a COP27 and ha is now being se up. Somalia’s
2024 wo kplan o implemen i s Na ionally De e mined Con ibu ion (NDC) includes aising
awa eness o he ex en o clima e change- ela ed loss and damage, and eme ging inance
oppo uni ies o help add ess i , among cen al and sub-na ional go e nmen uni s.
Howe e , he e a e se e al po en ial hu dles ha may hampe Somalia’s abili y o ha ness
eme ging in e na ional loss and damage inance oppo uni ies. These include:
The abili y o he Fede al Go e nmen o Somalia and i s pa ne s o quan i y loss
and damage associa ed wi h clima e change and o a icula e loss and damage
inancing needs o help mee he wide ange o losses and damages expe ienced
in he na ional con ex . Na ional clima e and de elopmen policies and plans in Somalia,
22 SPARC Suppo ing Pas o alism and Ag icul u e in Recu en and P o ac ed C ises
such as he Na ional Adap a ion Plan F amewo k, he NDC o he Na ional D ough Plan
(Go e nmen o Somalia, 2020b; 2021; 2022), p o ide only limi ed sys ema ic quan i ica ion
o he cu en and u u e cos o clima e change- ela ed loss and damage, nei he do hey
o e comp ehensi e s a egies o mobilise inance o add essing i . Fo ins ance, Somalia’s
e ised 2021 NDC implemen a ion amewo k conside s loss and damage om ex eme
e en s and slow-onse p ocesses. Bu while he NDC p ojec s a o al o $48.5 billion
adap a ion and mi iga ion need un il 2030, i does no p o ide a mo e speci ic b eakdown o
he needs o add essing loss and damage. Pos -disas e needs assessmen s (PDNAs) ha
cap u e lood and d ough di ec impac s on a a ie y o sec o s ha e been conduc ed o
se e al ecen e en s in Somalia such as he 2016/2017 d ough (Go e nmen o Somalia,
2018a) and he 2023 loods (SoDMA, 2024). They gi e some insigh in o he olume and
sec o al dis ibu ion o loss and damage om ex eme e en s. Howe e , PDNAs a e no
a ailable o all majo ex eme e en s, ake ime o p oduce, and a e expensi e o ca y
ou , so hey a e likely p ohibi i e in cos o smalle e en s. Comp ehensi e sys ems and a
na ional da abase o eco d impac s om ex eme e en s do no cu en ly exis in Somalia.
Loss and damage om slow-onse p ocesses and non-economic impac s a e e en less
sys ema ically cap u ed.
The o al olume o unds ha will be mobilised o he Loss and Damage Fund. Ini ial
commi men s o he Loss and Damage Fund when i was ope a ionalised a COP28
amoun ed o $700 million. This is a d op in he ocean compa ed o es ima es o global loss
and damage unding needs, which end o s a a hund eds o billions o USD annually and
a e p ojec ed o inc ease o e ime, eaching in o he illions by 2050 (UNEP, 2023; Ta oni
e al., 2024). As his b ie has shown, he clima e-a ibu able di ec economic losses and
damages om d ough s and loods in Somalia alone could amoun o be ween $5 billion
and $100 billion by he 2050s (Table 2); his igu e excludes indi ec impac s, slow-onse
p ocesses and non-economic loss and damage. Whe he he Loss and Damage Fund
will ha e enough esou ces a ailable o make a di e ence in add essing impac s om
ex eme e en s and slow-onse p ocesses in Somalia (o elsewhe e) in he u u e – gi en
he es ima ed amoun s o loss and damage in he coun y – will depend on i s abili y
o su icien ly capi alise and eplenish he und. And i will also depend on he coun y’s
abili y o mobilise de elopmen , and clima e adap a ion and mi iga ion unding o add ess
unde lying s uc u al ulne abili ies.
The willingness o dono s o channel esou ces o agile and con lic -a ec ed coun ies
and he modali ies o accessing such unds o he go e nmen and non-go e nmen
en i ies. Somalia has al eady expe ienced majo challenges in accessing clima e inance
o mi iga ion and adap a ion om mul ila e al clima e unds. In 2019/2020, in e na ional
clima e adap a ion inance lows only me abou 5% o Somalia’s es ima ed annual needs
and mul ila e al clima e unds only con ibu ed a ound 1% o he o al. Reasons o he
limi ed clima e inance lows o Somalia ha e included complex access equi emen s on
he side o he unds, as well as capaci y cons ain s wi hin he Go e nmen o Somalia
o ge acc edi ed and secu e unding (Gula i e al., 2023). The ex en o which loss and
damage inance mechanisms lea n om hese expe iences and acili a e access o
agile and con lic -a ec ed coun ies will p o e signi ican o he Fede al Go e nmen
o Somalia’s e o s o add ess losses and damages and mo e o wa d wi h clima e-
esilien socioeconomic de elopmen .
23 SPARC Suppo ing Pas o alism and Ag icul u e in Recu en and P o ac ed C ises
5 CONCLUSIONS AND
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
Somalia is al eady expe iencing signi ican di ec and indi ec economic and non-economic
losses and damages in which clima e change has played a ole. Somalia’s con ibu ions o
global emissions a e minimal; he global communi y’s ole in p o iding equi able inancial
suppo o add essing clima e-a ibu able loss and damage and o mi iga ion, adap a ion and
de elopmen is pa amoun . Based on he p o isional es ima es p o ided, and he challenges o
inancing o add essing loss and damage which a e iden i ied in he ea lie sec ions, his inal
sec ion p oposes some ecommenda ions o he Fede al Go e nmen o Somalia and o loss
and damage inance mechanisms and dono s.
A man si s by he i e in Ga bahaa ey own in he Gedo egion o Somalia. C edi : AMISOM
24 SPARC Suppo ing Pas o alism and Ag icul u e in Recu en and P o ac ed C ises
Raise he ambi ion o esou ces ha a e mobilised h ough in e na ional loss and
damage inance, including ia con ibu ions o he new Loss and Damage Fund, and
ensu e access o ins i u ions in ulne able and con lic -a ec ed coun ies. This is c i ical
in o de o come close o ma ching he es ima ed unding needs ha a e eme ging om
an inc easing numbe o global s udies (UNEP, 2023) and mo e speci ic egional o na ional
assessmen s such as p o ided in his b ie .
S eng hen he Go e nmen o Somalia’s inancial p epa edness o add essing loss
and damage om ex eme wea he e en s and slow-onse p ocesses. The Fede al
Go e nmen ’s Na ional D ough Plan o Somalia al eady p oposes he es ablishmen
o a na ional d ough con ingency und, which is ye o be ope a ionalised (Go e nmen
o Somalia, 2020b). The Go e nmen also signed a T ea y and a Memo andum o
Unde s anding wi h he A ican Risk Capaci y in 2021 (A ican Union, Fede al Republic o
Somalia and ARC, 2021). Two yea s la e , in 2023, ARC paid ou o he i s ime in Somalia,
eleasing $3.38 million o local and na ional S a Ne wo k membe o ganisa ions o add ess
d ough impac s unde an ARC Replica d ough insu ance policy (ARC, 2023). Such disas e
isk inancing ins umen s – hose ha a e a anged in ad ance o a disas e – can help he
Go e nmen and i s de elopmen and humani a ian pa ne s inc ease inancial planning
o add essing loss and damage (Panwa e al., 2023). Gi en he limi ed iscal space o he
Fede al Go e nmen , echnical assis ance as well as p emium and capi al suppo om
pa ne s – such as ha p o ided h ough he di e en unding ins umen s o he Global
Shield – will emain c i ical o es ablishing and main aining disas e isk inance ins umen s
like con ingency unds o insu ance co e age in Somalia in he u u e.
P o ide inancial and echnical suppo o s eng hening loss and damage da a in
Somalia, including by le e aging he San iago Ne wo k. A i s s ep would be o s eng hen
sys ems and capaci y wi hin he na ional go e nmen o he egula and sys ema ic
collec ion o loss and damage da a. To be e cap u e he di e en dimensions o loss and
damage om ex eme e en s and slow-onse p ocesses (di ec , indi ec , economic, non-
economic), i is impo an ha da a collec ion sys ems ex end beyond PDNAs and common
amewo ks o disas e impac da abases; o ins ance, deploying pa icipa o y app oaches
o emo e sensing echnology. Suppo should also ex end o da a use in o de o ensu e
ha i eeds in o na ional planning and in e na ional epo ing. In 2024, he UNFCCC has
s a ed in i ing coun ies o epo da a speci ically on loss and damage and ela ed
inancial equi emen s o he i s ime. This is done h ough wo mechanisms: (1) a call
o in o ma ion issued by he S anding Commi ee on Finance, and (2) coun ies’ Biennial
T anspa ency Repo s ha need o be submi ed by he end o he yea (Se deczny e al.,
2024). Howe e , ew coun ies a e doing his so a , and Somalia – gi en limi ed go e nmen
capaci y, da a gaps and esou ce cons ain s – aces pa icula challenges in his ega d.
