Koch, Dennis; Schie eck, Di k
A icle — Published Ve sion
The S ock Ma ke 's An icipa ion o he T ump 2024
Elec ion: The Case o Sus ainable Business Models
Business S a egy and he En i onmen
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
John Wiley & Sons
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Koch, Dennis; Schie eck, Di k (2025) : The S ock Ma ke 's An icipa ion o
he T ump 2024 Elec ion: The Case o Sus ainable Business Models, Business S a egy and he
En i onmen , ISSN 1099-0836, Wiley, Hoboken, NJ, Vol. 34, Iss. 6, pp. 7938-7956,
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Business S a egy and he En i onmen , 2025; 34:7938–7956
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7938
Business S a egy and he En i onmen
RESEARCH ARTICLE OPEN ACCESS
The S ock Ma ke 's An icipa ion o he T ump 2024 Elec ion:
The Case o Sus ainable Business Models
DennisKoch | Di kSchie eck
Technische Uni e si ä Da ms ad , Da ms ad ,Ge many
Co espondence: Di k Schie eck (di k.schie eck@ u-da ms ad .de)
Recei ed: 19 Feb ua y 2025 | Re ised: 29 Ap il 2025 | Accep ed: 18 May 2025
Keywo ds: ESG| e en s udy| g een e enues| s ock p ice eac ions| sus ainabili y| T ump| US elec ion
ABSTRACT
This s udy examines he impac o g een e enues on US s ock p ice eac ions a ound Donald T ump's 2024 elec ion win. Fi ms'
g een e enue sha e (GRS) is signi ican ly associa ed wi h nega i e cumula i e abno mal e u ns (CARs) pos - elec ion, exhibi -
ing a nonlinea e ec ha in ensi ies a highe GRS le els. Howe e , s ock ma ke s showed no an icipa ing e alua ion o g een
business models du ing he weeks be o e he elec ion. Ins ead, in es o s eac ed sha ply o wo unan icipa ed key p e- elec ion
e en s, he T ump assassina ion a emp and Ha is' candidacy announcemen , highligh ing sensi i i y o an icipa ed shi s in
g een policy. Rema kably, he e alua ion o g een business models did no ake place uni o mly ac oss he en i e coun y. The
s a e poli ical en i onmen mode a es his e ec , as g een i ms in Democ a ic s a es expe ienced mo e nega i e CARs han
hose in Republican s a es.
1 | In oduc ion
On he day o his inaugu a ion as 47 h p esiden o he Uni ed
S a es on Janua y 20, 2025, Donald T ump immedia ely se his
poli ical agenda in o mo ion by signing nume ous execu i e
o de s. Among his i s ac ions, he wi hd ew he Uni ed S a es
om he Pa is Clima e Ag eemen and e oked execu i e o de s
o he p e ious Biden adminis a ion suppo ing clean ene gy
indus ies and elec ic ehicle a ge s. In addi ion, he decla ed
a na ional ene gy eme gency o oll back en i onmen al p o-
ec ion and accele a e oil, gas, and powe p ojec s, as well as
imposed a ban on he cons uc ion o new o sho e wind pa ks
along he en i e US Eas Coas (The Whi e House2025).1
In he un- up o he elec ion, T ump campaigned on his policy
u na ound, p omo ing oil and gas indus ies while hal ing he
clean ene gy momen um and p omised o con inue he agenda
he had ini ia ed du ing his i s e m in o ice (BBC2024b). His
2016 elec ion was widely ega ded as a poli ical shock, wi h i-
nancial ma ke s eac ing s ongly o he la gely unexpec ed ou -
come. In pa icula , in es o s esponded posi i ely o b own,
ca bon- in ensi e i ms while exp essing unce ain y o e he u-
u e o g een businesses (Pham e al.2023; Ramelli e al.2021b).
By con as , he 2024 elec ion p esen ed a di e en dynamic.
Polling da a and be ing ma ke s indica ed ha a second T ump
p esidency was a p obable ou come, and his policy s ance
on ene gy and en i onmen al de egula ion was well known
(BBC 2024a; RealClea Polling 2024; The Economis 2024).
Gi en his di e ence in expec a ions, he key ques ion a ises i
and how inancial ma ke s s ill eac ed o T ump's elec ion win
in 2024 and hus p iced in he poli ical change be o ehand.
T ump's e u n o o ice in 2025 came amid deep poli ical pola -
iza ion in he Uni ed S a es. The di ide be ween Republicans
and Democ a s had widened in ecen yea s, and T ump had
epea edly signaled his willingness o pu sue e ibu i e ac-
ions agains poli ical opponen s (CNN 2025). A he same
ime, T ump's pledge o epeal he In la ion Reduc ion Ac
(IRA) adds ano he laye o unce ain y. Al hough he IRA
was designed o accele a e he g een ansi ion, he majo i y o
i s economic bene i s, such as subsidies o enewable ene gy
This is an open access a icle unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion License, which pe mi s use, dis ibu ion and ep oduc ion in any medium,
p o ided he o iginal wo k is p ope ly ci ed.
© 2025 The Au ho (s). Business S a egy and he En i onmen published by ERP En i onmen and John Wiley & Sons L d.
7939
p ojec s and elec ic ehicle p oduc ion, low o Republican-
leaning s a es (B ookings Ins i u ion 2025). This aises
ques ions abou whe he his adminis a ion's ac ions would
disp opo iona ely a ec Democ a ic- leaning s a es and
whe he he s a e poli ical en i onmen in luenced how i-
nancial ma ke s eac ed o T ump's ic o y, pa icula ly wi h
ega d o g een i ms.
To add ess hese ques ions, his s udy examines how i ms'
g een e enues in luenced s ock p ice eac ions o T ump's e-
u n o o ice. By analyzing hese ma ke esponses, we aim
o unde s and how in es o s p iced he expec ed policy shi
agains g een businesses and whe he he poli ical en i onmen
a he s a e le el played a ole. This p o ides c i ical insigh
in o how inancial ma ke s e alua e he shi ing landscape o
sus ainabili y- d i en i ms in a pola ized poli ical landscape.
We u ilize g een e enues,2 which measu e i ms' e enue ex-
posu e o en i onmen ally sus ainable business models, as key
explana o y a iable o s udy he ma ke eac ion o he elec-
ion ou come. This a iable p o ides a alue- d i en pe spec i e
on i ms' en i onmen al s a egies, e lec ing he g eenness
o hei business models a he han hei co po a e conduc .
In he con ex o ou s udy, assessing he impac o wo sened
ma ke condi ions o en i onmen ally sus ainable businesses,
g een e enues se e as he mos sui able and no el measu e
compa ed o commonly used CO2 a iables o ESG sco es.
Fu he mo e, his s udy adds no el y by ex ending he e en
s udy beyond he elec ion i sel and examining s ock p ice e-
ac ions o wo p eceding key e en s: he T ump assassina ion
a emp on July 13, 2024, and Kamala Ha is' announcemen on
July 21, 2024, o un as he Democ a ic candida e. These e en s
o e aluable oppo uni ies o obse e in es o sen imen shi s
as he likelihood o a T ump p esidency luc ua ed in an en i ely
un o eseen manne .
Ou indings e eal ha a i m's g een e enue sha e (GRS) is
signi ican ly associa ed wi h nega i e s ock p ice eac ions ol-
lowing T ump's elec ion win, highligh ing a de e io a ed ma -
ke ou look o en i onmen ally sus ainable business models
unde his p esidency. We ind ha US i ms gene a ing g een
e enues exhibi 2.3 pe cen age poin s lowe cumula i e abno -
mal e u ns (CARs) 10 days a e he elec ion han i ms no en-
gaging in any g een ac i i ies. GRS exe cises a nonlinea e ec
on CARs, whe e highe le els o g een e enue exposu e expe-
ience an ampli ied nega i e impac on ma ke alua ion. The
poli ical en i onmen o he i ms' home s a es mode a es hese
e ec s, esul ing in signi ican ly la ge nega i e e u ns o
g een i ms in Democ a ic- leaning e sus Republican- leaning
s a es. A sec o al analysis o GRS e eals a ia ion, wi h he
mos subs an ial e ec s obse ed o g een e enues s emming
om en i onmen al suppo se ices, such as g een inancing
and consul ing, as well as ene gy equipmen and gene a ion.
A e he wo e en s p eceding he elec ion, in es o s o US
i ms apidly inco po a ed he changing p ospec s o he elec-
ion ou come. Following he T ump assassina ion a emp ,
which inc eased he pe cei ed odds o him winning he elec-
ion, in es o s hea ily punished companies wi h high GRS.
Con e sely, Ha is' announcemen , spa king new momen um
o he Democ a ic Pa y, igge ed sho - li ed posi i e e u ns
o GRS.
Ou s udy makes se e al key con ibu ions o he li e a u e. I
is he i s one o analyze ma ke eac ions o poli ical e en s
wi h g een e enues as a key eg esso , o e ing a no el pe -
spec i e on how in es o s pe cei e en i onmen ally sus ain-
able business models in he con ex o shi ing poli ical and
egula o y en i onmen s. By examining he enewed T ump
elec ion, which did no p esen he same unexpec ed shock as
in 2016, his pape highligh s how e en an icipa ed e en s can
s ill igge s ong ma ke eac ions, pa icula ly o g een busi-
nesses. Mo eo e , ou s udy inco po a es an analysis o wo key
e en s p eceding he elec ion, demons a ing how hese sudden
e en s a ec s ock p ices as hey in luence he likelihood o he
elec ion's ou come. Finally, ou s udy inco po a es an analysis
o he s a e poli ical en i onmen , e ealing ha in es o e-
ac ions o g een e enues a e signi ican ly shaped by whe he
i ms a e headqua e ed in Democ a ic- leaning o Republican-
leaning s a es.
This esea ch hus signi ican ly ex ends he ecen li e a u e on
e en s udies analyzing he impac o US elec ion ou comes (e.g.,
Child e al.2021; Hachenbe g e al.2017; Ramelli e al.2021b),
con ibu es o he b oade indings on he impac o en i on-
men al sus ainabili y on s ock e u ns du ing poli ical shi s
(e.g., Muelle e al.2023a; Muelle e al.2023b; Pham e al.2023;
Ramelli e al. 2021a; Teu ine e al. 2024), and adds o he
eme ging body o esea ch on he impac o g een e enues (e.g.,
Bassen e al.2023; Klausmann e al.2024).
O e all, his s udy p esen s a no el pe spec i e on how poli i-
cal de elopmen s shape ma ke dynamics, e ealing he heigh -
ened ulne abili y o g een business models and he in luence o
i ms' local poli ical en i onmen amid deep poli ical pola iza-
ion in he Uni ed S a es.
2 | Li e a u e Re iew and Resea ch Ques ions
2.1 | S ock P ice Reac ions o US Elec ions
and Clima e Policy E en s
P e ious pape s ha e documen ed he in luence o US p esi-
den ial elec ions and co esponding policy changes on s ock e-
u ns. The 2016 elec ion o Donald T ump as US p esiden was
widely ega ded as a poli ical shock, as i was la gely unexpec ed
and p esen ed a sha p con as o p e ious policy. A s udy by
Hachenbe g e al.(2017) examines he impac o he 2016 su -
p ise elec ion ou come on banks' sha eholde s and bondhold-
e s. The au ho s ind ha , in an icipa ion o de egula ion in he
inancial sec o , US bank sha eholde s bene i ed om signi i-
can ly posi i e abno mal s ock e u ns, whe eas deb holde s
expe ienced inc eases in CDS sp eads, e lec ing heigh ened
c edi isk.
Ramelli e al. (2021b) in es iga ed he ole o en i onmen-
al sus ainabili y, an a ea pa icula ly a ec ed by US policy
changes, on s ock e u ns du ing he 2016 and 2020 US elec-
ions. Using sus ainabili y sco es and emissions in ensi y as
key eg esso s, he au ho s ind ha clima e- iendly i ms
7940 Business S a egy and he En i onmen , 2025
wi h highe sus ainabili y sco es and clima e- un iendly
i ms wi h high emissions in ensi y bo h expe ienced signi -
ican posi i e s ock e u ns a e T ump's su p ise elec ion.
The au ho s a ibu e his inding o he di e ing in es men
ho izons o in es o g oups. Speci ically, hey demons a e
ha sho - e m in es o s d i e he p icing e ec o emission-
in ensi e i ms, whe eas long- e m in es o s exe cise buying
p essu e on clima e- iendly i ms in an icipa ion o an e en
s ic e en i onmen al egula ion in a pos - T ump e a. Such
boome ang in clima e policy e en ually occu ed ollowing
he 2020 US elec ion. P omising a enewed momen um in en-
i onmen al e o s, Biden's elec ion win igge ed subs an ial
alue inc eases o clima e- esponsible s ocks.
Simila ly, Pham e al.(2023) analyzed he impac o majo cli-
ma e policy- ela ed e en s on s ock e u ns o US g een i ms
included in he NASDAQ OMX G een Economy Index, a baske
o companies ocused on en i onmen ally sus ainable business
models. The s udy inds signi ican posi i e s ock eac ions o a-
o able clima e policy e en s, such as Biden's elec ion con i ma-
ion, he Biden clima e change bill, and he adop ion o he Pa is
ag eemen in 2015. Con e sely, un a o able e en s, including
T ump's elec ion con i ma ion and he US wi hd awal om he
Pa is ag eemen , a e associa ed wi h insigni ican nega i e e-
u n eac ions.
Ahmed e al. (2025) p o ide he mos ecen e idence on US
elec ions, analyzing he impac o he 2024 T ump ic o y on
S&P 1500 s ocks. The au ho s documen signi ican posi i e
CAPM- adjus ed e u ns ollowing he elec ion. Gi en he mo e
an icipa ed na u e o T ump's 2024 ic o y, hese adjus ed e-
u ns a e, howe e , lowe in magni ude han hose obse ed in
2016. Mo eo e , c oss- sec ional analyses show ha small i ms
as well as i ms in he manu ac u ing and ene gy indus y ex-
hibi ed he la ges abno mal e u ns.
2.2 | D i e s and S ock P ice Impac o G een
Re enues
As LSEG's g een e enues a e a ela i ely no el measu e o a
i m's g eenness, ha ing been i s in oduced in 2015, he body
o esea ch u ilizing his a iable is sca ce (LSEG2024a). Recen
s udies ha e examined d i e s o g een e enue g ow h as well
as i s impac on s ock e u ns ac oss global ma ke s.
To begin wi h, Klausmann e al.(2024) analyze he e olu ion
o g een e enues and p esen h ee key channels ha d o e
i s g ow h in he p e ious decade. The au ho s iden i y egu-
la o y push and g een inno a ion as he i s wo channels,
epo ing accele a ed g ow h in g een e enues ollowing he
Pa is Clima e Ag eemen , d i en by Eu opean egula o y ini-
ia i es, as well as by US i ms con e ing g een pa en s in o
e enues. As a hi d channel, he au ho s iden i y ins i u ional
owne ship and epo ha a la ge sha e o ins i u ional in-
es o s, pa icula ly clima e- esponsible in es o s, be o e he
Pa is Ag eemen co ela es wi h highe subsequen g een
e enues.
Bassen e al.(2023) in es iga e he p icing impac o g een e -
enues in a global sample o i ms wi h posi i e GRS om 2016
o 2020. The au ho s p o ide e idence o a g een alpha and ind
ha a po olio o i ms wi h highe GRS ea ns highe e u ns
han a po olio o i ms wi h lowe GRS. In a simila manne ,
Klausmann e al.(2024) examine he s ock p ice impac o g een
e enues in a global sample om 2008 o 2022. The au ho s
ind no conclusi e e idence o an o e all g een po olio excess
e u n bu no e ha a US subsample and he pos - Pa is pe iod
om 2016 ela e o a signi ican g een alpha.
2.3 | Resea ch Ques ions
The US p esiden ial elec ion ou come was expec ed o signi i-
can ly al e he p ospec s o g een businesses due o an ici-
pa ed shi s in subsidies, egula o y amewo ks, and public
pe cep ion. The wo key e en s p eceding he elec ion, ha is,
he T ump assassina ion a emp and Ha is' announcemen o
un as Democ a ic candida e, o e addi ional oppo uni ies o
obse e in es o sen imen shi s as he likelihood o he elec-
ion ou come luc ua ed in an un o eseeable manne . Al hough
he p esiden ial ace could in gene al be pe cei ed as e en ul,
we ocus on hese wo inciden s as polling da a e eal ha hey
igge ed he mos signi ican shi s in winning odds (RealClea
Polling2024). G een e enues, as an indica o o a i m's expo-
su e o en i onmen ally sus ainable business models, can be
seen as pa icula ly sensi i e o he shi in US poli ical powe
and associa ed policy. The elec ion and p eceding e en s hence
se e as c i ical in lec ion poin s o in es o s o assess he
u u e egula o y and economic en i onmen o g een busi-
nesses. The e o e, we aim o explo e whe he and how i ms
wi h highe g een e enues expe ience di e en ial s ock e u ns
du ing hese e en s.
Resea ch Ques ion 1. Wha is he impac o g een e enues on
s ock e u ns a ound he elec ion e en s?
Fi ms' le els o g een e enues a y and e lec di e en de-
g ees o commi men o sus ainabili y. In es o s may pe cei e
hese le els di e en ly in ligh o he an icipa ed policy changes
ollowing he elec ion. Mode a e le els o g een e enues may
s ike a balance ha signals bo h en i onmen al commi men
and exposu e o con en ional income s eams, whe eas e y
high o low le els could be associa ed wi h excessi e ocus o a
lack o adap abili y o policy shi s. Acco dingly, we aim o de-
e mine whe he he ma ke eac ions o g een e enues ollow
a linea o nonlinea pa e n.
Resea ch Ques ion 2. Does he impac o g een e enues on
s ock e u ns a y o di e en le els o g een e enues?
The Uni ed S a es is ma ked by signi ican poli ical pola -
iza ion, which shapes bo h policy implemen a ion and i s
economic impac s. In oduced by P esiden Biden in 2022,
he IRA aims o boos clean ene gy in es men s and educe
emissions, wi h mos o i s unding bene i ing Republican-
leaning s a es (B ookings Ins i u ion2025). This aises ques-
ions abou whe he a T ump adminis a ion would ully oll
back he IRA, pa icula ly in Republican- leaning s a es e-
cei ing subs an ial economic bene i s om i . Mo e gene ally
speaking, he s a e- le el poli ical en i onmen and alignmen
wi h he p esiden 's pa y and poli ical iews can signi ican ly
7941
in luence i ms h ough policy suppo , egula o y leniency,
o subsidies. Gi en hese dynamics, we explo e whe he a
i m's s a e poli ical en i onmen shapes how in es o s alue
i s g een e enues du ing elec ion e en s.
Resea ch Ques ion 3. Does he s a e poli ical en i onmen a ec
he impac o g een e enues on s ock e u ns?
Las , g een e enues may no be pe cei ed as homogeneous
ac oss indus ies such ha i ms wi hin di e ing g een sec o s
may expe ience dis inc ma ke eac ions. Addi ionally, i ms
wi h a ying le els o g eenness, ha is, in ensi y and ex en o
en i onmen al impac , deno ed by he g een e enue ie , may
exhibi di e ing esponses. Hence, we aim o in es iga e how
sec o al and ie di e ences a ec he alue o g een e enues
a e he policy e en s.
Resea ch Ques ion 4. Does he impac o g een e enues on
s ock e u ns a y by hei sec o and ie ?
3 | Sample, Da a, and Me hodology
3.1 | Sample and Da a
Analogous o Ramelli e al. (2021b), ou main sample con-
sis s o s ocks lis ed in he Russell 3000 index, ep esen ing
he 3000 la ges US companies by ma ke capi aliza ion and
98% o he in es able US s ock uni e se (LSEG2024b). We e-
ie e he mos ecen i m- le el da a on s ock p ices, accoun -
ing me ics, and g een e enues om LSEG. We g a e ully
download daily isk- ee a es and Fama–F ench h ee- ac o
p emia o he Uni ed S a es om Kenne h F ench's webpage
(F ench2025).
3.2 | Me hodology
3.2.1 | S ock Re u ns
The h ee e en s o in e es a e he a emp ed assassina ion o
Donald T ump in Pennsyl ania on Sa u day, July 13, 2024; he
announcemen o Kamala Ha is's candidacy o p esiden , e-
placing Joe Biden, on Sunday, July 21, 2024; and he US p esi-
den ial elec ion on No embe 5, 2024. Since he i s wo e en s
occu ed on weekends, we assign he e en da es ( = 0) o July
15 and July 22, espec i ely. Fo he US p esiden ial elec ion, as
he esul was called on he day ollowing he elec ion, we assign
No embe 6, 2024, as = 0.
Fo each e en , we de i e and analyze aw e u ns as well as ab-
no mal e u ns adjus ed using he CAPM and he Fama–F ench
h ee- ac o model (FF3). We es ima e CAPM be a
𝛽i
and he
FF3 ac o loadings
𝛽1,i
,
𝛽2,i
, and
𝛽3,i
o each e en by eg ess-
ing daily s ocks e u ns
Ri,
in excess o he isk- ee a e
R ,
on
he espec i e esea ch e u ns e ie ed om Kenne h F ench's
da a lib a y. We conduc he es ima ion o e a 250- day es ima-
ion window spanning om = −260 o = −11, conside ing only
i ms wi h a comple e se o e u ns. Wi hin ou e en windows,
we hen compu e he daily expec ed e u ns along he ollowing
o mulae:
Las , we de i e daily abno mal e u ns by sub ac ing expec ed
e u ns om ealized e u ns and calcula e he CAR as he sum
o daily abno mal e u ns o e he speci ied window:
In ou main analyses, we u ilize he FF3 model o adjus e u ns,
as i accoun s o he size and alue ac o s ha a e pa icula ly
ele an in he con ex o ou s udy. Gi en ha he e en s unde
in es iga ion likely a ec i ms di e en ially based on hei
size and alua ion, wi h smalle and alue- o ien ed i ms po-
en ially bene i ing mo e om a T ump adminis a ion, adjus -
ing o hese ac o s allows o a mo e p ecise iden i ica ion o
abno mal e u ns. To ensu e obus ness, we addi ionally epo
esul s based on CAPM- adjus ed and aw e u ns, which yield
quali a i ely simila indings.
3.2.2 | G een Re enues
As key explana o y a iable, we employ he GRS. This me ic,
p o ided by LSEG, deno es he sha e o o al e enues gene -
a ed om en i onmen ally sus ainable p oduc s and se ices.
I is based on epo ed and es ima ed igu es on g een e enues
wi hin a classi ica ion sys em o 10 g een sec o s as well as 64 sub-
sec o s.3 The da a model co e s o e 19,000 i ms in 49 coun ies,
accoun ing o nea ly 99% o global ma ke capi aliza ion, and
iden i ies o e 4000 i ms wi h g een e enues (LSEG2024a).
The me ic measu es a i m's pa icipa ion in business models
wi hin he g een economy, ha is, ac i i ies ha aim o educe
and alle ia e ad e se en i onmen al impac s. I he e o e ac s as
o wa d- looking indica o o a i m's inancial exposu e o cu en
and u u e sus ainable e enue pools. As Klausmann e al.(2024)
poin ou , g een e enues o e no el in o ma ion on sus ainable
conduc compa ed o widely used a iables based on CO2 emis-
sions and en i onmen al pe o mance sco es. En i onmen al
sco es p ima ily measu e a i m's sus ainable conduc , policies,
and s a egies, whe eas CO2- ela ed a iables depic di ec emis-
sions o he i m's ope a ions (Scope 1) as well as indi ec emissions
o i s ups eam alue chain (Scope 2). G een e enues, howe e ,
measu e he con ibu ion o sus ainabili y h ough p oduc s and
se ices sold o consume s a he han business conduc o ope -
a ions. Co espondingly, Klausmann e al.(2024) highligh ha
hese sus ainabili y me ics exhibi a low co ela ion, and g een
e enues hus o e addi ional in o ma ion alue. Acco dingly, we
ind a low co ela ion coe icien o 0.18 be ween GRS and LSEG's
en i onmen al pilla sco e and 0.04 be ween GRS and o al CO2
in ensi y scaled by o al e enue in ou sample.
3.2.3 | Con ol Va iables
In line wi h ela ed pape s, we con ol o i m size (log o ma -
ke capi aliza ion), alua ion (book- o- ma ke a io), p o i abili y
CAPM:E[Ri, ]=R , +𝛼 i+
𝛽i(Rm, −R , )
FF3
:E
[
R
i, ]
=R
,
+𝛼
i
+
𝛽
1,i(
R
m,
−R
, )
+
𝛽
2,i
SMB
+
𝛽
3,i
HML
ARi, =Ri, −E�Ri, �
CARi,[ 1: 2]
=
∑
2
k= 1
AR
i,
7942 Business S a egy and he En i onmen , 2025
(ROA), g ow h (1- yea e enue g ow h a e), le e age (deb - o-
o al asse s a io), and indus y ixed e ec s using he 25 GICS
indus y g oups (Muelle e al.2023a; Ramelli e al.2021b). We
winso ize all con ol a iables excep he log o ma ke capi al-
iza ion a he 1s and 99 h pe cen iles. Thus, we use he ollow-
ing eg ession:
3.2.4 | S a e Poli ical En i onmen
We es ima e he mode a ing e ec o he s a e poli ical en i on-
men wi h he a iable s a e poli ical di ec ion spanning om 0
(i.e., s ongly Republican) o 1 (i.e., s ongly Democ a ic), aking
e e ence om Di Guili and Kos o e sky(2014). Applying his
measu e on a US sample om 2003 h ough 2009, he au ho s
ind ha i ms headqua e ed in Democ a ic- leaning s a es e-
la e o signi ican ly highe ESG sco es han hose in Republican-
leaning s a es.
Speci ically, we cons uc he a iable s a e poli ical en i on-
men as a weigh ed a e age o h ee componen s. The i s
componen comp ises he popula o e esul o he US p es-
iden ial elec ion 2024 and is cons uc ed as a bina y me ic,
coding s a es wi h a Democ a ic majo i y o e wi h 1 and s a es
wi h a Republican majo i y o e wi h 0. The second componen
p esen s he s a e go e nmen and is cons uc ed as a weigh ed
a e age o Go e no pa y a ilia ion (50%) as well as majo -
i y con ol o uppe and lowe s a e legisla u e chambe s (25%
each). We code he subcomponen s 1 o Democ a ic Go e no s
o house majo i y and 0 o Republican Go e no s o house
majo i y. The hi d componen depic s he Cong ess delega-
ion and is cons uc ed as an a e age o he Cong essmen and
Sena o s majo i y subcomponen s. We code he subcompo-
nen s 1 i he majo i y o Cong essmen o Sena o s om he
espec i e s a e a e Democ a s and 0 i hey a e Republicans.
We ma ch he s a e poli ical en i onmen wi h he i ms' s a e
o headqua e s. We ga he s a e- le el p esiden ial elec ion
esul s om he US Na ional A chi es, in o ma ion on he
Cong ess delega ions om he House o Rep esen a i es and
Sena e, and s a e go e nmen al da a om he espec i e o i-
cial s a e websi es (U.S. House o Rep esen a i es2024; U.S.
Na ional A chi es and Reco ds Adminis a ion 2024; U.S.
Sena e2024).
3.3 | Desc ip i e S a is ics
Desc ip i e s a is ics a e displayed in Table1. Ou sample con-
sis s o 2397 i ms wi h a ull se o da a on e u ns, con ol a i-
ables, and GRS. Ou o he o al, he equi alen o 24% (i.e., 573
i ms) ha e a GRS g ea e han ze o. The a e age GRS ac oss all
i ms is 7%, whe eas he 576 i ms wi h GRS > 0 exhibi an a e -
age sha e o 29%. Two housand wo hund ed nine y- six o ou
sample i ms a e headqua e ed in he Uni ed S a es, o which
1295 in mos ly Democ a ic o neu al s a es (i.e., s a e poli ical
di ec ion > = 0.5) and 1001 in mos ly Republican s a es (i.e.,
s a e poli ical di ec ion < 0.5).
4 | E en S udy Resul s
4.1 | T ump Assassina ion A emp on July 13, 2024
We begin ou analyses by in es iga ing he s ock p ice impac
o g een e enues a e he T ump assassina ion a emp ha
occu ed on Sa u day, July 13, 2024, nea Bu le , Pennsyl ania.
To illus a e he e ec o his e en and he Ha is candidacy
announcemen , we build ou equal- weigh ed po olios wi h
di e ing GRS cu o s and plo hei FF3- adjus ed CARs in
Figu e1. The 10 ading days p eceding he assassina ion a -
emp exhibi some ola ili y in GRS, wi h an ini ial down-
wa d end ollowed by a s ong upwa d mo emen . Howe e ,
his upwa d momen um was ab up ly in e up ed by he inci-
den . In he 5 ading days ollowing he e en , be ween July
15 and 19, po olios es ic ed o nonze o GRS h esholds
(i.e., GRS > 0, GRS > 20, and GRS > 50) display a clea down-
wa d end. No ably, he po olios show dec easing CARs as
he GRS h eshold inc eases.
Table 2 p esen s eg ession esul s analyzing he impac o
GRS on FF3- adjus ed e u ns ollowing he assassina ion a -
emp . The esul s in Panel A indica e a p onounced nega i e
e ec o g een e enues on adjus ed e u ns a e he e en ,
wi h coe icien s o GRS in Columns 1 h ough 3 being s a is-
ically highly signi ican . The economic impac o his e ec
is sizeable, as GRS' coe icien o −0.033 and a one- s anda d
de ia ion inc ease in GRS o 20 pe cen age poin s ela e o a
0.66 pe cen age poin lowe CAR ela i e o a median CAR
[0,4] o 0.11%.
In Panel B, we es he exis ence o a nonlinea e ec o GRS
on e u ns and ind e idence o such. In Columns 4 h ough 6,
we add GRS squa ed o he eg essions and obse e s a is ically
signi ican nega i e coe icien s. The coe icien o GRS u ns in
sign and shows a mode a ely signi ican alue o 0.05 in Column
6. The esul s sugges a nonlinea e ec o GRS on adjus ed e-
u ns in he days ollowing he assassina ion a emp . We plo
he ela ionship be ween GRS and CAR [0,4] in Figu e2 and
ind ha in es o s mos ewa ded a mode a e GRS le el o 26%
wi h an adjus ed e u n o 0.46%, whe eas GRS highe han 48%
exhibi dec easing nega i e CARs. In Appendix S2, we e es
his nonlinea e ec using dummy a iables o di e ing GRS
le els and ind suppo ing esul s.
Las , we es he mode a ing in luence o he s a e poli ical en-
i onmen on he e ec o GRS on adjus ed e u ns. To acil-
i a e in e p e a ion, we employ he in e ac ion o he a iable
s a e poli ical di ec ion wi h he dummy a iable GRS > 0. In
Panel C, we u ilize GRS > 0 as a single explana o y a iable
and obse e a s a is ically signi ican nega i e coe icien only
in Column 1, consis en wi h he no ion o a nonlinea e ec
o posi i e GRS in he subsequen days. Nex , we include s a e
poli ical di ec ion in Panel D and ind a s a is ically signi i-
can nega i e in e ac ion e m in Columns 4 h ough 6, wi h
he magni ude and signi icance o he coe icien inc easing
o e he ega ded ime ame. The esul s indica e ha i ms
wi h g een e enues loca ed in Democ a ic- leaning s a es ex-
hibi signi ican ly lowe CARs han o he wise simila i ms
headqua e ed in Republican- leaning s a es. Speci ically,
a i m wi h GRS > 0 loca ed in Cali o nia (s a e poli ical
CAR
i
=γ
0
+γ
1
g s
i
+γ
2
logmcap
i
+γ
3
BTM
i
+γ
4
ROAi
+γ5 e g ow hi+γ6le e agei+FE+εi
7943
TABLE 1 | Desc ip i e s a is ics.
Panel A: Accoun ing and g een e enue s a is ics
Va iable NMin P25 Mean Median P75 Max SD
Ma ke cap (USD bn) 2397 0.02 0.69 22.52 2.56 9.07 3395.33 143.50
Book- o- ma ke a io 2397 1.91 22.90 56.54 45.13 80.07 259.72 44.98
Le e age a io 2397 0.00 7.60 25.10 22.85 37.96 96.50 20.04
ROA 2397 −81.39 −0.36 0.71 2.33 6.57 27.33 13.52
Re enue g ow h 2397 −75.33 −4.96 9.26 4.54 14.65 296.32 40.20
Tax a e 1722 −130.48 15.16 19.85 21.41 25.46 190.77 31.38
G een e enue sha e 2397 0.00 0.00 6.95 0.00 0.00 100.00 19.85
G een e enue sha e (only
i ms wi h GRS > 0)
573 0.01 5.00 29.06 16.08 41.00 100.00 31.75
Panel B: Fama–F ench h ee- ac o - adjus ed e u ns
E en NMin P25 Mean Median P75 Max SD
I: T ump assassina ion a emp (Sa u day, July 13, 2024)
July 15, 2024 [0,0] 2397 −17.98 −1.20 −0.02 −0.03 1.18 22.90 2.59
Cumula i e 3- day [0,2] 2397 −27.74 −1.92 −0.03 0.29 2.32 26.44 4.62
Cumula i e 5- day [0,4] 2397 −34.79 −2.30 −0.26 0.11 2.48 48.89 5.45
II: Ha is candidacy announcemen (Sunday, July 21, 2024)
July 22, 2024 [0,0] 2397 −18.67 −0.93 0.02 0.13 1.03 14.33 2.16
Cumula i e 3- day [0,2] 2397 −25.53 −1.79 −0.21 −0.13 1.41 22.49 3.61
Cumula i e 5- day [0,4] 2397 −54.41 −2.41 0.11 0.31 2.82 47.13 5.85
Cumula i e 10- day [0,9] 2397 −47.33 −3.74 0.53 0.99 5.24 95.84 9.13
Cumula i e 15- day [0,14] 2397 −82.87 −5.33 0.41 0.90 6.36 195.64 12.68
III: US p esiden ial elec ion (Tuesday, No embe 5, 2024)
No embe 6, 2024 [0,0] 2397 −65.56 −3.73 −0.90 −0.54 2.36 37.22 5.99
Cumula i e 3- day [0,2] 2397 −79.14 −3.78 −0.74 −0.19 3.30 73.91 8.58
Cumula i e 5- day [0,4] 2397 −85.07 −5.05 −0.92 −0.41 4.03 81.00 10.19
Cumula i e 10- day [0,9] 2397 −85.08 −5.88 −0.90 −0.48 4.40 85.67 12.19
Cumula i e 15- day [0,14] 2397 −150.02 −6.04 −0.31 0.11 5.11 227.05 14.50
Panel C: S a e poli ical en i onmen
S a e poli ical
di ec ion S a es
Full sample GRS > 0
NMean GRS NMean GRS
0.00 AK, AL, AR, FL, IA, ID, IN, LA, MO, MS, MT,
ND, NE, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY
666 6.08 172 23.53
0.17 GA, KS, KY, NC 144 10.15 41 35.63
0.25 WI 41 4.13 11 15.38
0.33 AZ, PA 150 10.08 43 35.15
0.50 MI, NV 70 6.16 16 26.97
0.67 NH 715.05 426.35
(Con inues)
7944 Business S a egy and he En i onmen , 2025
di ec ion = 1) ela es o app oxima ely 1.7 pe cen age poin s
lowe CAR [0,4] han an iden ical i m headqua e ed in
Texas (s a e poli ical di ec ion = 0). The insigni ican s and-
alone coe icien o s a e poli ical di ec ion sugges s ha he
in luence o he s a e en i onmen on e u ns is es ic ed o
g een i ms only.
The con ols ac oss all analyses indica e ha smalle i ms and
i ms wi h lowe book- o- ma ke a ios expe ienced highe ab-
no mal e u ns ollowing he e en .4 Whe eas e enue g ow h
shows no signi ican impac on e u ns, le e age appea s o neg-
a i ely ela e o CAR [0,0] and ROA posi i ely in luences abno -
mal e u ns in he longe e en windows.
Panel C: S a e poli ical en i onmen
S a e poli ical
di ec ion S a es
Full sample GRS > 0
NMean GRS NMean GRS
0.83 DC, ME, VA, VT 94 7.94 26 28.69
0.92 CO, MN 114 9.12 33 31.51
1.00 CA, CT, DE, HI, IL, MA, MD, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, WA 1010 6.63 207 32.36
To al —2296 7.06 553 29.31
No e: This able displays desc ip i e sample s a is ics. Panel A epo s summa y s a is ics on accoun ing con ols and g een e enue a iables, Panel B epo s
summa y s a is ics on Fama–F ench h ee- ac o - adjus ed e u ns a ound he e en days, and Panel C epo s s a is ics on he s a e poli ical en i onmen . Va iable
de ini ions a e as ollows: Ma ke cap is he closing ma ke capi aliza ion as o July 1, 2024. Book- o- ma ke a io is de ined as book alue o equi y di ided by ma ke
capi aliza ion × 100. Le e age a io is de ined as book alue o o al deb di ided by book alue o o al asse s × 100. ROA is de ined as income be o e ex ao dina y
i ems di ided by book alue o o al asse s × 100. Re enue g ow h is de ined as pe iod- on- pe iod change in o al e enue × 100. Tax a e is de ined as income axes
di ided by income be o e axes × 100. G een e enue sha e (GRS) is he sha e o o al i m e enues gene a ed om en i onmen ally sus ainable p oduc s and se ices.
We es ima e Fama–F ench h ee- ac o loadings o each e en by eg essing daily s ock e u ns in excess o he isk- ee a e on he espec i e esea ch e u ns om
Kenne h F ench's da a lib a y om = −260 o = −11. We de i e daily Fama–F ench h ee- ac o - adjus ed e u ns by sub ac ing expec ed e u ns om ealized
e u ns and calcula e he cumula i e abno mal e u n as he sum o daily abno mal e u ns o e he speci ied window. We also es ima e aw e u ns and CAPM-
adjus ed e u ns and p esen he summa y s a is ics in AppendixS1. The a iable s a e poli ical di ec ion is de ined as a weigh ed a e age o h ee componen s, each
anging om 0 (s ongly Republican) o 1 (s ongly Democ a ic): (i) he 2024 p esiden ial elec ion popula o e majo i y, (ii) he s a e go e nmen 's poli ical composi ion,
and (iii) he majo i y pa y in he s a e's Cong ess delega ion.
TABLE 1 | (Con inued)
FIGURE 1 | De elopmen o GRS- po olios a ound T ump assassina ion a emp and Ha is candidacy announcemen . This igu e displays cu-
mula i e Fama–F ench h ee- ac o - adjus ed e u ns o equal- weigh ed po olios o med by g een e enue sha e (GRS) ollowing he assassina ion
a emp on Donald T ump (Sa u day, July 13, 2024) and Kamala Ha is' announcemen o un as p esiden ial candida e (Sunday, July 21, 2024). The
po olios include all i ms in he sample (2397 i ms), i ms wi h GRS la ge han 0 (573 i ms), i ms wi h GRS la ge han 20 (226 i ms), and i ms
wi h GRS la ge han 50 (126 i ms). Re u ns s a cumula ing on July 15, 2024, he i s ading day a e he assassina ion a emp . Re u ns s a
cumula ing on June 28, 2024, 10 ading days be o e assassina ion a emp (i.e., = 0). In e p e a ion: This igu e shows a nega i e in es o eac ion
o g een e enues ollowing he T ump assassina ion a emp , wi h mo e p onounced declines in CAR o po olios wi h highe GRS. In he i s
ading days a e he Ha is' candidacy announcemen , he g een po olios con inued hei downwa d end. S a ing = 9 (July 26), he g een po -
olios expe ienced a sha p ise in CAR peaking in = 16 (Augus 6), wi h he inc ease being mo e p onounced o g eene po olios. Subsequen ly,
he GRS po olios e u ned o p e- announcemen le els by = 20 (Augus 12).
7945
In sum, we p o ide e idence ha in es o s apidly and ex en-
si ely eac ed o he shi in elec ion odds ollowing he T ump
assassina ion a emp on July 13, 2024. In es o s showed a
nuanced ela ionship wi h g een e enues, as hey hea ily
punished companies wi h high GRS and hey mos ewa ded
mode a e GRS le els a ound 26%. In addi ion, we show ha in-
es o s inco po a ed i ms' headqua e loca ion in o hei eac-
ions, as g een companies loca ed in Democ a ic- leaning s a es
exhibi ed signi ican ly lowe e u ns han i ms headqua e ed
in Republican- leaning s a es.
TABLE 2 | T ump assassina ion a emp —impac o g een e enues on s ock e u ns.
I: T ump assassina ion a emp (Sa u day, July 13, 2024)
Dep. a .
Fama–F ench h ee- ac o - adjus ed e u ns
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
July 15 [0,0] 3- day [0,2] 5- day [0,4] July 15 [0,0] 3- day [0,2] 5- day [0,4]
Panel A Panel B
G een e enue sha e −0.018*** −0.035*** −0.033*** 0.017* 0.031* 0.049**
(−4.03) (−5.04) (−4.18) (1.73) (1.78) (2.41)
G een e enue sha e sq. −0.000*** −0.001*** −0.001***
(−2.85) (−3.36) (−3.60)
Log ma ke cap −0.184*** −0.457*** −0.246*** −0.199*** −0.486*** −0.282***
(−5.88) (−7.68) (−3.66) (−6.28) (−8.10) (−4.15)
Book- o- ma ke a io −0.006*** −0.012*** −0.009*** −0.006*** −0.013*** −0.009***
(−3.95) (−4.81) (−2.71) (−4.05) (−4.93) (−2.84)
Le e age a io −0.011*** −0.010* −0.004 −0.011*** −0.010* −0.004
(−3.66) (−1.74) (−0.54) (−3.69) (−1.77) (−0.57)
ROA −0.003 0.050*** 0.077*** −0.003 0.050*** 0.077***
(−0.41) (4.11) (5.15) (−0.44) (4.10) (5.16)
Re enue g ow h 0.003 −0.002 −0.000 0.003 −0.001 −0.000
(1.16) (−0.47) (−0.13) (1.20) (−0.41) (−0.07)
N2397 2397 2397 2397 2397 2397
Adj. R20.154 0.125 0.114 0.159 0.130 0.120
Indus y FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Panel C Panel D
G een e enue sha e > 0 −0.390*** −0.369 −0.129 −0.115 0.343 0.915**
(−2.89) (−1.42) (−0.42) (−0.66) −0.96 −2.24
S a e poli ical di ec ion −0.075 0.174 0.283
(−0.56) −0.73 −0.99
G een e enue sha e > 0 * S a e poli ical di ec ion −0.558** −1.409*** −2.021***
(−2.05) (−2.77) (−3.39)
N2397 2397 2397 2296 2296 2296
Adj. R20.142 0.107 0.102 0.142 0.114 0.107
Con ols Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Indus y FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
No e: This able p esen s e en s udy eg ession esul s analyzing he impac o g een e enues on Fama–F ench h ee- ac o - adjus ed e u ns ollowing he
assassina ion a emp on Donald T ump on July 13, 2024. The eg essions con ain ou - digi GICS indus y- g oup ixed e ec s. Robus T- s a is ics a e epo ed in
pa en heses. *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01. In e p e a ion: This able shows ha he company's g een e enue sha e (GRS) is signi ican ly associa ed wi h nega i e
adjus ed e u ns ollowing he T ump assassina ion a emp . GRS exe cises a nonlinea e ec on CARs, as i s nega i e impac in ensi ies wi h inc easing le els o GRS.
The s a e poli ical en i onmen signi ican ly mode a es he impac o GRS, as g een i ms headqua e ed in Democ a ic- leaning s a es expe ience signi ican ly lowe
CARs han compa able i ms in Republican s a es.
7952 Business S a egy and he En i onmen , 2025
Clima e T ansi ion Index.9 This index ex ends beyond g een
e enues by inco po a ing ossil uel and ca bon emissions, cli-
ma e go e nance ac i i ies, and ca bon educ ion commi men s
(LSEG2025). We p esen eg ession esul s in AppendixS7 and
ind ha g een index inclusion ela es o signi ican ly nega i e
abno mal e u ns ollowing he elec ion, p o iding addi ional
obus ness o ou main indings.
4.4.7 | Inclusion o Emissions and ESG Va iables
Ou p ima y explana o y a iable, g een e enue, cap u es
i m- le el exposu e o en i onmen ally sus ainable business
oppo uni ies and is he e o e pa icula ly well sui ed o assess
policy shi s ela ed o unding and he ou look o g een busi-
ness models. Ne e heless, we ecognize he ele ance o mo e
es ablished measu es such as ca bon emissions and ESG a -
ings. These measu es a e commonly used in he li e a u e and
may e lec di e en aspec s o a i m's en i onmen al p o ile.
To ensu e obus ness and compa abili y, we he e o e include
o al CO2 emissions in ensi y (i.e., Scope 1 and 2 emissions ela-
i e o e enue10) and he en i onmen al pilla sco e om LSEG
as wo widely adop ed al e na i es in ou analysis. As shown
in AppendixS8, ou main indings on he ela ionship be ween
g een e enues and s ock ma ke eac ions emain unchanged
a e he inclusion o hese addi ional measu es.
4.4.8 | Inclusion o Change in GRS
To u he ex end ou analysis, we addi ionally es he im-
pac o GRS g ow h dynamics. Al hough in ou main eg es-
sions we employ GRS as a s a ic measu e, we ecognize ha
g een e enue exposu e can e ol e o e ime. The e o e, we
in es iga e whe he yea - o e - yea changes in GRS (i.e., GRS
g ow h),11 a he han i s le els alone, a e associa ed wi h ab-
no mal e u ns a ound he elec ion. AppendixS9 p esen s he
key indings, showing a posi i e and s a is ically signi ican e-
la ionship be ween GRS g ow h and abno mal e u ns ac oss all
windows. In con as , he le el o GRS con inues o be nega i ely
associa ed wi h e u ns, consis en wi h ou main indings. This
inding indica es ha , al hough he ma ke may penalize i ms'
cu en g een e enue exposu e, i appea s o ewa d i ms wi h
inc easing GRS, possibly in e p e ing such changes in GRS as
signals o adap abili y.
4.4.9 | Inclusion o S a e- Le el G een In es men s
In ou analysis on he mode a ing e ec o he s a e poli ical
en i onmen , we a gue ha g een i ms in Republican- leaning
s a es exhibi less nega i e abno mal e u ns due o a close po-
li ical alignmen wi h he T ump adminis a ion. Howe e , one
could eason ha ou indings may ins ead e lec di e ences
in s a e- le el exposu e o g een indus ies and ela ed unding,
a he han he poli ical en i onmen pe se. To alle ia e his
conce n, we inco po a e a measu e o s a e- le el g een in es -
men s as an addi ional a iable. Speci ically, we e ie e clean
in es men , ha is, in es men in clima e echnologies, by
s a e in 2024 as a sha e o s a e GDP om Clean In es men
Moni o (2025).12 In Appendix S10, we apply his measu e in
wo ways. In Panel A, we include clean in es men o GDP as
an addi ional con ol a iable and ind ha he main esul s
emain obus o i s inclusion. In Panel B, we es he in e ac-
ion be ween GRS > 0 and clean in es men o GDP and ind no
conclusi e e idence o a signi ican e ec . Taken oge he , hese
FIGURE 4 | In e ac ion be ween s a e poli ical en i onmen and g een e enues. This igu e illus a es he mode a ing e ec o he s a e po-
li ical en i onmen on he ela ionship be ween he g een e enue sha e (GRS) and 5- day cumula i e Fama–F ench h ee- ac o - adjus ed e u ns
(CAR [0,4]) ollowing he US p esiden ial elec ion (Tuesday, No embe 5, 2024). S a e poli ical di ec ion is a con inuous a iable spanning om 0
(i.e., s ongly Republican) o 1 (i.e., s ongly Democ a ic). G een e enue sha e > 0 is a dummy a iable coded one i a i m exhibi s g een e enues.
In e p e a ion: This igu e shows ha i ms wi h g een e enues headqua e ed in Democ a ic- leaning s a es exhibi ed signi ican ly lowe adjus ed
e u ns han o he wise simila i ms headqua e ed in Republican- leaning s a es ollowing he US p esiden ial elec ion.
7953
TABLE 5 | US p esiden ial elec ion—impac o g een e enue ie s and sec o s on s ock e u ns.
III: U.S. p esiden ial elec ion (Tuesday, No embe 5, 2024)
Dep. a .
Fama–F ench h ee- ac o - adjus ed e u ns
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
No . 6 [0,0] 3- day [0,2] 5- day [0,4] 10- day [0,9] 15- day [0,14] No . 6 [0,0] 3- day [0,2] 5- day [0,4] 10- day [0,9] 15- day [0,14]
Panel A Panel B
GRS Tie 1 −0.073*** −0.093*** −0.094*** −0.083*** −0.077***
(−4.13) (−4.25) (−4.17) (−3.45) (−3.50)
GRS Tie 2 −0.034** −0.052*** −0.075*** −0.067*** −0.053**
(−2.48) (−2.79) (−3.16) (−2.87) (−2.19)
GRS Tie 3 −0.039 −0.003 0.003 −0.068 −0.037
(−1.15) (−0.06) (0.06) (−1.41) (−0.79)
GRS ene gy gene a ion −0.146*** −0.154** −0.177*** −0.101 −0.110
(−2.91) (−2.33) (−2.63) (−1.43) (−1.61)
GRS ene gy managemen −0.047*** −0.049*** −0.062*** −0.062** −0.057**
(−4.24) (−3.24) (−3.58) (−2.35) (−2.30)
GRS ene gy equipmen −0.226*** −0.260*** −0.281*** −0.219*** −0.149***
(−4.37) (−4.06) (−4.14) (−4.01) (−2.78)
GRS en i on. esou ces 0.025 0.023 0.041* 0.015 0.039*
(1.18) (1.08) (1.75) (0.64) (1.77)
GRS en . supp. se ices −0.177* −0.368*** −0.412*** −0.530*** −0.488***
(−1.87) (−3.16) (−3.63) (−4.98) (−4.91)
GRS ood and ag icul u e −0.059 −0.027 −0.044 −0.030 −0.006
(−1.11) (−0.39) (−0.50) (−0.45) (−0.09)
GRS anspo equipmen −0.067* −0.081 −0.058 −0.067 −0.098
(−1.79) (−1.49) (−1.11) (−0.97) (−1.35)
GRS anspo solu ions 0.051** 0.020 0.006 0.024 0.111*
(2.09) (1.00) (0.21) (0.56) (1.70)
(Con inues)
7954 Business S a egy and he En i onmen , 2025
III: U.S. p esiden ial elec ion (Tuesday, No embe 5, 2024)
Dep. a .
Fama–F ench h ee- ac o - adjus ed e u ns
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
No . 6 [0,0] 3- day [0,2] 5- day [0,4] 10- day [0,9] 15- day [0,14] No . 6 [0,0] 3- day [0,2] 5- day [0,4] 10- day [0,9] 15- day [0,14]
Panel A Panel B
GRS wa e in a. and
ech.
−0.018* −0.038** −0.058*** −0.061*** −0.067***
(−1.69) (−2.37) (−3.29) (−2.72) (−2.59)
GRS was e and poll. on . 0.011 −0.023 −0.018 −0.005 −0.029
(0.83) (−0.79) (−0.51) (−0.11) (−0.65)
Log ma ke cap −0.222*** −0.023 −0.110 −0.221 −0.198 −0.218*** −0.032 −0.127 −0.252* −0.223
(−3.19) (−0.23) (−0.93) (−1.46) (−1.05) (−3.21) (−0.33) (−1.08) (−1.67) (−1.18)
Book- o- ma ke a io −0.013*** −0.014*** −0.025*** −0.030*** −0.036*** −0.012*** −0.014*** −0.026*** −0.030*** −0.036***
(−4.19) (−2.73) (−4.41) (−3.96) (−3.86) (−4.04) (−2.78) (−4.52) (−4.03) (−3.87)
Le e age a io −0.053*** −0.030*** −0.045*** −0.028* −0.022 −0.053*** −0.029*** −0.044*** −0.027* −0.022
(−8.06) (−2.92) (−3.69) (−1.83) (−1.37) (−8.40) (−2.86) (−3.66) (−1.78) (−1.32)
ROA 0.051*** 0.066*** 0.062** 0.034 0.045 0.046*** 0.062*** 0.059** 0.033 0.043
(4.13) (3.31) (2.47) (1.09) (1.08) (3.88) (3.11) (2.32) (1.05) (1.03)
Re enue g ow h 0.004 0.007 0.012* 0.023*** 0.016 0.004 0.007 0.013* 0.023*** 0.016
(1.32) (1.49) (1.68) (2.73) (1.31) (1.33) (1.54) (1.72) (2.72) (1.32)
N2397 2397 2397 2397 2397 2397 2397 2397 2397 2397
Adj. R20.229 0.107 0.137 0.111 0.072 0.279 0.140 0.166 0.128 0.080
Indus y FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
No e: This able p esen s e en s udy eg ession esul s analyzing he impac o g een e enues on Fama–F ench h ee- ac o - adjus ed e u ns ollowing he elec ion o Donald T ump as US p esiden on No embe 5, 2024. The
eg essions con ain ou - digi GICS indus y- g oup ixed e ec s. Robus T- s a is ics a e epo ed in pa en heses. *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01. In e p e a ion: This able shows ha Tie 1 and Tie 2 g een e enue sha es (GRS)
a e associa ed wi h nega i e adjus ed e u ns ollowing he elec ion o Donald T ump as US p esiden and ha he magni ude o impac is signi ican ly g ea e o Tie 1 GRS compa ed o Tie 2. In addi ion, GRS show p onounced
sec o al di e ences and exhibi he mos subs an ial e ec on e u ns in ac i i ies ela ed o ene gy equipmen and gene a ion as well as en i onmen al suppo se ices.
TABLE 5 | (Con inued)
7955
analyses suppo he a gumen ha s a e- le el di e ences in
e u ns a e d i en by he poli ical en i onmen and no g een
in es men exposu e.
4.4.10 | Inclusion o Poli ical Dona ions
The 2024 elec ion was cha ac e ized by publicly isible poli i-
cal endo semen s and dona ions by p ominen business lead-
e s, possibly in luencing in es o eac ion and s ock e u ns.
In line wi h his, Babenko e al. (2020) show ha CEO poli -
ical con ibu ions can signi ican ly a ec s ock pe o mance
a ound ede al elec ions. To accoun o his po en ial con-
ounding ac o , we ollow he app oach o Babenko e al.(2020)
and ga he CEO- le el poli ical dona ion da a om he Fede al
Elec ion Commission. Speci ically, we c ea e wo bina y indi-
ca o s coded one i a CEO dona ed o Republican o Democ a ic
campaigns du ing he 2023–24 elec ion cycle, espec i ely.13
Ou analysis shown in AppendixS11 e eals ha Republican
CEO dona ions a e associa ed wi h posi i e abno mal e u ns,
whe eas Democ a ic CEO dona ions ela e o nega i e abno mal
e u ns. Impo an ly, he e ec o GRS on s ock e u ns emains
unchanged when con olling o hese poli ical a ilia ions.
5 | Conclusion
This s udy in es iga es he ma ke eac ion o poli ical de el-
opmen s su ounding Donald T ump's 2024 p esiden ial elec-
ion ic o y, examining he impac o g een e enues on s ock
p ice pe o mance. Ou indings demons a e ha US i ms
wi h highe GRS expe ience signi ican ly nega i e cumula i e
abno mal e u ns ollowing T ump's e u n o o ice, e lec ing
p onounced in es o conce ns abou he p ospec s o en i on-
men ally sus ainable business models ha we e no p iced in by
he ma ke be o ehand. We documen a nonlinea ela ionship
be ween GRS and CARs ha unde sco es he disp opo iona ely
la ge impac on i ms wi h highe g een e enue exposu e. In
addi ion, we demons a e ha in es o s di e en ia e he ou -
look o g een i ms based on he poli ical en i onmen o hei
headqua e loca ion, wi h hose in Democ a ic- leaning s a es
expe iencing signi ican ly la ge nega i e e u ns han hei
coun e pa s in Republican- leaning s a es. Las ly, he analysis
o wo unan icipa ed p e- elec ion e en s, ha is, he T ump as-
sassina ion a emp and Kamala Ha is' candidacy announce-
men , e eals ha shi s in he pe cei ed likelihood o T ump's
p esidency we e p omp ly p iced in by in es o s.
Ou wo k makes se e al impo an con ibu ions o he li e a-
u e. To begin wi h, i in oduces he GRS as a no el measu e o
i ms' inancial exposu e o en i onmen ally sus ainable busi-
ness ac i i ies, p o iding a alue- d i en iew o assess ma ke
esponses. Second, i analyzes he 2024 US p esiden ial elec ion
as a decisi e policy e en , including c i ical lead- up e en s, and
hus o e s a comp ehensi e pe spec i e on how poli ical de-
elopmen s wi h a ying deg ees o p io an icipa ion p o oke
s ong ma ke eac ions. Finally, his s udy documen s he ole
o poli ical pola iza ion, e ealing ha in es o eac ions o
g een e enues a e in luenced by whe he i ms a e headqua -
e ed in Democ a ic- o Republican- leaning s a es and hus po-
li ically aligned wi h he elec ion winne .
The implica ions o ou indings a e mul i ace ed. They unde -
sco e he heigh ened policy isk aced by en i onmen ally sus-
ainable businesses and show ha in es o s accoun o local
poli ical dynamics and he isk o poli ical e ibu ion when
assessing g een i ms' inancial p ospec s. Fo policymake s,
ou esul s emphasize he impo ance o egula o y s abili y
o os e ing sus ainable business models o e he long e m.
Meanwhile, co po a e leade s mus na iga e in es o sensi i i y
o egula o y shi s and he alignmen o hei business model
and s a e en i onmen wi h he pa y in powe .
In sum, his s udy p o ides new e idence on how poli ical de el-
opmen s shape in es o pe cep ions o g een business models,
e ealing hei heigh ened ulne abili y o policy shi s amid
poli ical pola iza ion.
Acknowledgemen s
Open Access unding enabled and o ganized by P ojek DEAL.
Endno es
1 Execu i e o de s da ed Janua y 20, 2025: “Pu ing Ame ica Fi s
in In e na ional En i onmen al Ag eemen s”, “Ini ial Rescissions
o Ha m ul Execu i e O de s and Ac ions,” “Decla ing a Na ional
Ene gy Eme gency,” and “Tempo a y Wi hd awal o All A eas on he
Ou e Con inen al Shel om O sho e Wind Leasing and Re iew o
he Fede al Go e nmen 's Leasing and Pe mi ing P ac ices o Wind
P ojec s.”
2 The g een e enue me ic p o ided by LSEG deno es o al e enues
gene a ed om en i onmen ally sus ainable p oduc s and se ices. I
is based on epo ed and es ima ed igu es on g een e enues wi hin
a classi ica ion sys em o 10 g een sec o s as well as 64 subsec o s
(LSEG2024a).
3 The 10 g een sec o s a e ene gy gene a ion, ene gy managemen and
e iciency, ene gy equipmen , en i onmen al esou ces, en i on-
men al suppo se ices, ood and ag icul u e, anspo equipmen ,
anspo solu ions, wa e in as uc u e and echnology, and was e
and pollu ion con ol.
4 The nega i e coe icien o he book- o- ma ke a io seems unex-
pec ed, as alue i ms (i.e., hose wi h a high book- o- ma ke a io)
we e an icipa ed o gain om a T ump adminis a ion. Howe e , -
es s indica e ha alue i ms expe ience g ea e abno mal e u ns
compa ed o g ow h i ms. This ou come implies ha o he ac o s,
such as i m size o addi ional co a ia es, may play a ole in shaping
he link be ween alua ion and e u ns.
5 En i onmen al suppo se ices comp ise Tie 2 ac i i ies ela ed o
en i onmen al consul ing, g een inance and in es men , and sma
ci y design and enginee ing.
6 Ene gy equipmen comp ises ac i i ies ela ed o he de elopmen ,
p ocessing, p oduc ion, and dis ibu ion o equipmen o enewable
and al e na i e ene gy gene a ion.
7 Ene gy gene a ion comp ises ac i i ies ela ed o he gene a ion o
ene gy om enewable and al e na i e sou ces.
8 Ene gy managemen comp ises ac i i ies ela ed o p oduc s and se -
ices designed o imp o e he e iciency o ene gy use and managemen
(e.g., powe s o age, sma g ids, and esou ce- e icien buildings).
9 Fi e hund ed i y- six ou o 2397 sample i ms a e included in his
index, wi h index inclusion and g een e enue sha e > 0 exhibi ing a
mode a ely posi i e co ela ion o 0.18.
10 We winso ize he e enue- scaled Scope 1 and 2 emission in ensi y a
he 2.5 h and 97.5 h pe cen iles.
7956 Business S a egy and he En i onmen , 2025
11 The mean (median) alue o GRS g ow h is 0.05 (0.00). Eigh y- nine
(114) ou o 2271 alues o GRS g ow h a e smalle (la ge ) han 0.
12 The clean in es men o GDP a iable anges om 0.09 (Alaska) o
2.85 (Ne ada), wi h a mean alue o 0.92. I shows a co ela ion co-
e icien o −0.32 wi h s a e poli ical di ec ion, sugges ing ha , ela-
i e o GDP, clean ene gy in es men is highe in Republican- leaning
s a es.
13 We ga he CEO dona ions eco ds o 528 ou o 2397 sample i ms,
wi h 328 (338) CEOs dona ing o Democ a ic (Republican) campaigns
in he 2023–2024 elec ion cycle.
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Suppo ing In o ma ion
Addi ional suppo ing in o ma ion can be ound online in he
Suppo ing In o ma ion sec ion.
