Gine ičius, Romualdas; Okune ičiū ė Ne e auskienė, Laima; T ishch, Roman;
And iušai ienė, Dai a; S asy y ė, Vik o ija
A icle
Assessmen o demog aphic p o ile o Eu opean Union
coun ies
Am i ea u Economic
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
The Bucha es Uni e si y o Economic S udies
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Gine ičius, Romualdas; Okune ičiū ė Ne e auskienė, Laima; T ishch, Roman;
And iušai ienė, Dai a; S asy y ė, Vik o ija (2025) : Assessmen o demog aphic p o ile o Eu opean
Union coun ies, Am i ea u Economic, ISSN 2247-9104, The Bucha es Uni e si y o Economic
S udies, Bucha es , Vol. 27, Iss. 70, pp. 1109-1126,
h ps://doi.o g/10.24818/EA/2025/70/1109
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Economic In e e ences
AE
Vol. 27 • No. 70 • Augus 2025 1109
ASSESSMENT OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
OF EUROPEAN UNION COUNTRIES
Romualdas Gine ičius1, Laima Okune ičiū ė Ne e auskienė2
*
,
Roman T ishch3, Dai a And iušai ienė4 and Vik o ija S asy y ė5
1)4)5) Vilnius Gediminas Technical Uni e si y, Li huania
2) Li huanian Cen e o Social Sciences, Vilnius Gediminas Technical Uni e si y,
Li huania.
3) Mykolas Rome is Uni e si y, Vilnius, Li huania
Please ci e his a icle as:
Gine ičius, R., Okune ičiū ė Ne e auskienė, L., T ishch R.,
And iušai ienė, D. and S asy y ė, V., 2025. Assessmen o
Demog aphic P o ile o Eu opean Union Coun ies.
Am i ea u Economic, 27(70), pp. 1109-1126.
DOI: h ps://doi.o g/10.24818/EA/2025/70/1109
A icle His o y
Recei ed: 11 Ma ch 2025
Re ised: 29 Ap il 2025
Accep ed: 28 June 2025
Abs ac
The coun y's demog aphic si ua ion e lec s he ole and po en ial o one o he mos
impo an ac o s o economic de elopmen , wo k, and he e o e he quan i a i e assessmen
o he coun y's demog aphic p o ile is e y impo an . In he ecen pe iod, he dominan in-
dep h bu agmen a y s udies o demog aphic issues do no allow o assess he si ua ion in a
complex way, in eg a ing mul idimensional and di e en demog aphic ac o s o di e en
ele ance, basic and dynamic. The pu pose o his pape is o p esen a me hod o
demog aphic p o ile assessmen o complex analysis, based on a mul ic i e ia me hod. This
is usually done linea ly, i.e., he ele ance o he indica o does no depend on i s alue. In
eal li e, his is no he case, so a nonlinea e alua ion based on Ha ing on cu es has been
applied o he assessmen o he demog aphic p o ile. The g aphical-analy ical me hod o
apezoids is applied o combine block alues. In his case, he gene alised alue is he a ea
unde he cu e, which is ob ained by linea ly connec ing he dimensionless alues o he
indica o s. The coun y's demog aphic p o ile index was ob ained by combining he alues
o he basic and dynamic blocks in a espec i e way. In o de o link he coun y's
demog aphic p o ile index wi h GDP pe capi a, a co ela ion- eg ession analysis was
pe o med, he esul s o which con i med ha he demog aphic s a us la gely depends on
he achie ed le el o economic de elopmen .
Keywo ds: demog aphic p o ile o he coun y, nonlinea mul ic i e ia assessmen ,
economic de elopmen , mac oeconomic policy.
JEL Classi ica ion: J11; J21; C44; E60.
*
Co esponding au ho , Laima Okune ičiū ė Ne e auskienė –
e-mail: [email p o ec ed]
This is an Open Access a icle dis ibu ed unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons
A ibu ion License, which pe mi s un es ic ed use, dis ibu ion, and ep oduc ion in
any medium, p o ided he o iginal wo k is p ope ly ci ed. © 2025 The Au ho (s).
AE
Assessmen o Demog aphic P o ile o Eu opean Union Coun ies
1110 Am i ea u Economic
In oduc ion
A coun y can be ea ed as a mac ole el sys em, since by i s na u e i mee s all h ee
cha ac e is ics o socioeconomic sys ems (SES) – wholeness, in e ac ion, and s uc u ing
(Be alan y, 1973; Gine ičius, 2009). They consis o wo pa s, social and echnical. The
i s is a complex o in e ac ing people, such as amily, company pe sonnel, pa ies, eligious
communi ies, e c. The second is ma e ial, echnical, in o ma ional, inancial, e c. esou ces
in eg a ed in o he social sys em. The ac i e pa o he SES is social. This means ha he
esul s o he en i e socioeconomic sys em depend exclusi ely on he quali y o i s
unc ioning. The ques ion a ises, wha does his quali y depend on? In o de o answe his
ques ion, i is necessa y o analyze he s uc u e o he social componen o he sys em in
mo e dep h. I can be di ided in o wo pa s – quan i a i e and quali a i e. The quan i a i e
pa is he size o he popula ion, i s s uc u e, popula ion densi y, e c. The quali a i e pa
e lec s he quan i a i e changes in he popula ion o coun ies – li e expec ancy, bi h a e,
mo ali y a e, educa ion, employmen , e c. Bo h o hese pa s o m he demog aphic p o ile
(DP) o he coun y. I s essence can be o mula ed in he ollowing way – i is a quan i a i e
and quali a i e cha ac e is ic o he coun y's popula ion.
The de ini ion o DP shows ha i is a complex, mul i ace ed phenomenon, he holis ic
unde s anding o which se es as a guide o a emp s o ind me hodological ins umen s
ha help o ca y ou no only he momen a y agmen a y moni o ing o basic quan i a i e
indica o s, bu also o assess he syne gy e ec , which is la gely mani es ed h ough changes
in quali a i e demog aphic pa ame e s. The impo ance o such an assessmen is inspi ed by
he challenge o quali a i e economic de elopmen - o inc ease he esilience o he labo
ma ke : a labo o ce s uc u e ha is a o able o socio-economic de elopmen (in e ms o
age, gende , quali ica ions, e c.), ensu ing he compa ibili y and balance o labo supply and
demand, as well as he unc ionali y o he labo ma ke and i s abili y o eco e om
economic, echnological o social shocks.
Assessing he impo ance o his phenomenon o he socio-economic de elopmen o he
coun y, i is necessa y o s i e o a cons an imp o emen o i s condi ion. This is a s a egic
ask o he de elopmen o he coun y. Changes in he cu en si ua ion can only be
e alua ed ha ing a possibili y o quan i a i ely assess i s condi ion a a desi ed poin in ime
(Gine ičius, 2009). Only in his case will i be possible o de e mine whe he he e o s made
o imp o e he si ua ion we e meaning ul. Thus, a quan i a i e assessmen o he s a e o a
coun y's demog aphic p o ile allows o manage his p ocess in a a ge ed manne . An
analogy is he assessmen o a coun y's economic de elopmen by g oss domes ic p oduc
(GDP) pe capi a.
The e a e wo possible ways o assess he s a e o he DP. In he i s case, he s a e o one
impo an aspec is quan i a i ely assessed. This ype o esea ch is p e alen oday. In he
second case, he aim is o combine as many indica o s ha e lec he demog aphic s a e o
he coun y, as possible, in o one gene alizing a io. This me hod gi es a mo e accu a e esul ,
since he assessmen based on one, albei impo an , aspec does no con ey he s a e o he
DP as a whole. Wi hou knowing his, i is impossible o compa e coun ies wi h each o he .
Thus, a ask a ises ha is ele an bo h in heo e ical and p ac ical e ms – o comp ehensi ely
quan i a i ely assess he s a e o he coun y's demog aphic p o ile a he ime in ques ion. I s
solu ion is complica ed by he ac ha he indica o s e lec ing his phenomenon a e o
a ious na u e, i.e. hey a e mul idimensional, hey change in di e en di ec ions (an inc ease
Economic In e e ences
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Vol. 27 • No. 70 • Augus 2025 1111
in he alue o one indica o imp o es he si ua ion, ano he wo sens i ) and a e o di e en
ele ance in ela ion o he DP. Mul i-c i e ia me hods a e sui able o he quan i a i e
assessmen o he s a e o such a con adic o y si ua ion.
The aim o he a icle is o p opose a me hodology o he quan i a i e assessmen o he s a e
o a coun y's demog aphic p o ile and o e i y i s sui abili y based on he si ua ion in
Eu opean Union (EU) coun ies.
The pape consis s o an in oduc ion, a li e a u e e iew, me hodological and empi ical pa s,
and conclusions. The in oduc ion e eals he ole o he DP in he coun y's economic
de elopmen , he impo ance o quan i a i e assessmen o i s s a e, and he issues o be
add essed in his ega d. The li e a u e e iew analyzes he li e a u e sou ces on he issues o
quan i a i e assessmen o he DP condi ion. The me hodological pa p esen s he
me hodology o quan i a i e assessmen o his s a e. In he empi ical pa , based on he
p oposed me hodology, he le el o he demog aphic p o ile o EU coun ies is de e mined.
The conclusions summa ize he esea ch esul s, p o ide limi a ions and guidelines o
u he esea ch opics. The a icle is based on some esul s o he “Employmen challenges
and esilience in he labo ma ke : social and indi idual esou ces and di ec ions o hei
s eng hening” p ojec (unde Ag eemen No. S-MIP-24-27 wi h he Resea ch Council o
Li huania).
1. Li e a u e Re iew
The demog aphic p o ile o a coun y belongs o complex phenomena. In eali y, i mani es s
i sel in many di e en aspec s. Due o i s impo ance o he socio-economic de elopmen
o a coun y, he science o demog aphy has been o med. The ollowing essen ial a eas o
he p oblems s udied can be dis inguished: classical, social and economic demog aphy (Lu z,
2021).
The i s a ea examines he quan i a i e cha ac e is ics o he popula ion and he ela ionships
be ween demog aphic a iables, he second a ea examines he peculia i ies o social
de elopmen and human beha io , and he hi d – he ac i a ion o he popula ion in
economic ac i i y. Due o he g owing complexi y o comme cial and economic ac i i y and
inc easing compe i ion, economic demog aphy is becoming pa icula ly impo an . I seeks
o answe ques ions abou he ex en o which he demog aphic de elopmen o socie y
a ec s he coun y's economy, en i onmen al de elopmen , use o na u al esou ces, e c. On
he o he hand, i analyzes how economic g ow h a ec s demog aphic de elopmen
p ocesses.
The objec s o economic demog aphy esea ch can be condi ionally di ided in o wo g oups.
The i s would include pu ely social-demog aphic issues (li e expec ancy and mo ali y,
e ili y, o he amily p oblems, e c.); he second would include economic-demog aphic
issues (pa icipa ion o di e en age g oups in economic ac i i y, ela ionship wi h economic
de elopmen ends, labo ma ke , mig a ion p oblems, e c.).
In s udies o he i s g oup o p oblems, conside able a en ion is paid o examining issues
o li e expec ancy and mo ali y in he wo ld and in EU coun ies (Gine ičius, 2022; Wool ,
2023). The second g oup – demog aphic aspec s o economic de elopmen ( he ele ance o
which is cons an ly g owing) – is s udied o many easons: economic ac i i y is becoming
mo e and mo e complex, he wo ld popula ion is inc easing, bu he socie y o coun ies is
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Assessmen o Demog aphic P o ile o Eu opean Union Coun ies
1112 Am i ea u Economic
aging, quali ica ion equi emen s o he wo k o ce a e inc easing and his a ec s he
coun y's economic de elopmen (Adams, 2022; Maes as, Mullen and Powell, 2023; Lu,
2024; Okune ičiū ė Ne e auskienė, Gine ičius and Danile ičienė, 2024). The expec ed
du a ion o wo king li e (Te zla e . al., 2022), he impac o economic and echnological
ac o s and u baniza ion on popula ion size and mo ali y (Adams, 2022; Balaj e . al., 2024;
Dowd, Polizzi and Tils a, 2025; Nguea, 2023; Hejkal, Ra ikuma and Vandenb oucke,
2024; Zhao e al., 2024), popula ion aging and changes in en ep eneu ship (Zhang and Kang,
2025) and changes in household s uc u e and beha io al pa e ns, changes in isk a e sion
(Bayon and Lamo e, 2020; Bel án-Sánchez e al., 2022; Wang, Yao and Zhao, 2024), he
impac on he de elopmen o indi idual economic ac i i ies (e.g., he ou ism sec o )
(Abedin and Mi a, 2024) and many o he aspec s a e pa icula ly ele an issues o he
cu en economy. The solu ions a e being sough o hese challenges. The mac o-le el
scien i ic wo ks o his g oup examine he g owing scale o mig a ion as a global p oblem
and he ela ed consequences o he de elopmen o he global economy. Young people
mig a e, he e o e, coun ies ace a b ain d ain (Djajić, Docquie and Michael, 2019; Zhao
and Zhong, 2019); as he coun y's popula ion ages, new undesi able social secu i y p oblems
a ise (Skje pen and Tonnessen, 2021); clima e change is becoming one o he c ucial ac o s
o mig a ion lows and demog aphic p ocesses (Muelle e al., 2020; Haue , Jacobs and
Kulp, 2024; Udemba, Khan and Shah, 2024); amily size and i s changes a ec mig a ion
decisions (S a k and Szczygielski, 2019; Zhao e al., 2024).
Va ious me hods a e used o s udy he a o emen ioned economic-demog aphic p oblems,
depending on he scope o he analysis and he esea ch p oblems. The esea ch me hods used
in he e iewed publica ions (G ies and G undmann, 2018; de Albuque que, Caiado and
Pe ei a, 2020; Mu in and Diaz, 2020; Pa e son, Ma golis and Ve de y, 2020; Mu a ak,
2021; Kashni sky, de Bee and Van Wissen, 2021; En o h e al., 2022; Lange e al., 2022;
Mu in e . al., 2022; Widme , 2022) can be condi ionally di ided in o wo g oups. The i s
g oup s udies demog aphic p oblems and uses speci ic me hods o his pu pose –
demog aphic models o ep oduc i e p ocesses, ac o popula ion isks, index me hods, panel
coin eg a ion analysis, s a is ical modeling, mic osimula ion me hods, e c. (Jasilionis e al.,
2015; C is ea e . al., 2020; Skje pen and Tonnessen, 2021; Mi a and Abedin, 2021; Ciganda
and Todd, 2022). The second g oup s udies socio-economic p oblems based on a selec ed
demog aphic c oss-sec ion and applies me hods such as balance shee calcula ions, index
me hod, co ela ion- eg ession, mul i ac o , clus e analysis, o ecas ing me hods
(Abdesselam, Bonne and Renou-Maissan , 2020; Poplawski-Ribei o, 2020), and o he s.
The e iew o li e a u e sou ces allows us o d aw he ollowing conclusions ha a e
impo an o u he esea ch. Two undamen al sho comings o he quan i a i e assessmen
o economic-demog aphic issues and p oblems can be dis inguished – i is unsys ema ic and
uncomplex. Unsys ema ici y is mani es ed in he ac ha a uni ied me hodology o
assessing such a complex phenomenon as he coun y's demog aphic p o ile (DP) is no
p o ided. This leads o he o he a o emen ioned d awback – as indica ed, DP is a complex
phenomenon, which in eali y mani es s i sel in a la ge numbe o aspec s o a ious kinds.
In o de o be able o quan i a i ely assess i s s a e, hese aspec s need o be o malized and
ans o med in o indica o s. Only in his way is a sys em o indica o s o med ha adequa ely
e lec s he phenomenon unde conside a ion. Since his is no he case oday, he li e a u e
only examines local aspec s o he DP – li e expec ancy, mo ali y, e ili y, mig a ion, e c.
Based on such s udies, al hough hey a e ele an and in e es ing, i is impossible o ob ain a
gene al pic u e o he DP o a coun y. A he same ime, he e is no possibili y o compa ing
Economic In e e ences
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Vol. 27 • No. 70 • Augus 2025 1113
indi idual coun ies wi h each o he . This is also con i med by li e a u e sou ces, which
indica e a ool o inc ease he adequacy o he quan i a i e assessmen o DP s a e – inc easing
he complexi y o assessmen me hods (Ruggles e al., 2015; Goujon e al., 2016). As a esul ,
he aim o he a icle can be o mula ed – o p opose and app o e a me hodology o
quan i a i e assessmen o he s a e o he demog aphic p o ile o coun ies, he complexi y
o which would maximally co espond o he complexi y o he phenomenon unde
conside a ion.
2. Resea ch Me hodology
In o de o quan i a i ely assess he s a e o such a complex phenomenon as demog aphic
p o ile, i is necessa y, i s o all, o o m a sys em o indica o s ha adequa ely e lec i .
This can be done based on a ious sou ces – scien i ic li e a u e, in o ma ion p o ided by
s a is ical da abases, expe su eys, e c. Howe e , he main sou ce is scien i ic li e a u e
analyzing his opic. Resea ch publica ions p o ide a lis o possible DP indica o s. An
analysis o hei na u e shows ha hei ela ionship o he phenomenon unde conside a ion
is di e en . Some o hem e lec he s uc u e o he coun y's popula ion a he ime unde
conside a ion. These indica o s include age, he sha e o women in he o al popula ion,
popula ion densi y, e c. They can be de ined as basic, since hey e lec a mo e quan i a i e
side o DP. The o he g oup o indica o s is de i ed om he i s . I is cha ac e ized by mo e
in ense and equen changes; he e o e, hese indica o s can be named dynamic. In essence,
hey e lec he quali a i e side o he phenomenon unde conside a ion. The examples o
hese indica o s would be li e expec ancy, mo ali y, bi h a e, educa ion, e c. Based on his,
a sys em o indica o s e lec ing he coun y's demog aphic p o ile was o med, adap ed o
he quan i a i e assessmen o i s condi ion (Figu e no. 1).
Figu e no. 1. The sys em o coun y demog aphic p o ile indica o s
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Assessmen o Demog aphic P o ile o Eu opean Union Coun ies
1114 Am i ea u Economic
The indica o s p esen ed in Figu e 1 di e in h ee essen ial espec s – dimensions, di ec ion
o change and ele ance. The i s ci cums ance implies ha hey a e incompa able due o
di e en uni s o measu emen and he e o e canno be combined in o a single summa y
alue. Di e en di ec ions o change mean ha some o hem a e maximizing, o he s a e
minimizing, i.e., ha an inc ease in he alue o some o hem imp o es he si ua ion (e.g.,
li e expec ancy, educa ion, e c.), while o he s wo sen (e.g., mo ali y, di o ce, e c.). The
di e en ele ance o indica o s means ha hei impac on he phenomenon unde
conside a ion is unequal, so some o hem can be classi ied as essen ial, o he s as seconda y.
Figu e 1 shows ha he s a e o a coun y's demog aphic p o ile can only be de e mined by
knowing he alue o he basic and dynamic indices. The i s is ob ained by combining he
basic indica o s, he second – dynamic indica o s.
The sys em o he abo e-men ioned indica o s consis s o indica o s o a ious ypes. Mul i-
c i e ia me hods a e sui able o combining such alues in o one gene alizing quan i y – an index.
They di e om each o he in hei complexi y (Hwang and Yoon, 1987; Op ico ic, 1998;
Op ico ic and Tzeng, 2004; Gine ičius e al., 2022; Gine ičius e al, 2021; T ishch e al., 2021).
On he o he hand, hey all ha e one pa icula cha ac e is ic – he assessmen is ca ied ou
in a linea manne . This means ha he ele ance o indica o s does no depend on hei alue.
This is a simpli ied, inaccu a e assessmen . In eal li e, all p ocesses de elop non-linea ly.
Fo example, i unemploymen in a coun y is low, hen a sligh inc ease in i will no
undamen ally change he si ua ion. Simila ly, when i s scale is e y la ge, hen again, i s
insigni ican inc ease will no ha e a signi ican impac , ei he . Thus, in bo h o hese cases,
he ele ance o unemploymen o he economic and social condi ion o he coun y will be
insigni ican . Meanwhile, changes in unemploymen be ween hese wo ex eme s a es can
ha e a signi ican ly g ea e impac . A he same ime, he ele ance o his indica o also
inc eases. G aphically, his whole si ua ion can be ep esen ed using he Ha ing on cu e
(Figu e 2) (Ha ing on, 1965).
Figu e no. 2. G aphical ep esen a ion o he dependence o he ele ance
o an indica o on i s alue
Sou ce: compiled by he au ho s based on Ha ing on, 1965
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
-3
-2.6
-2.2
-1.8
-1.4
-1
-0.6
-0.2
0.2
0.6
1
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3
Y
Rele ance o he
indica o
Dimensionless alues o he indica o X
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Vol. 27 • No. 70 • Augus 2025 1115
Thus, i can be concluded ha he ime has come o mo e om a linea assessmen o he
s a e o de elopmen o socio-economic phenomena o a nonlinea one. The es s conduc ed
ha e con i med he possibili ies o i s success ul applica ion (Gine ičius e al., 2021;
Gine ičius e al., 2022).
The cu e shown in Fig. 2 can be exp essed ma hema ically as ollows:
, (-
< x <
) (1)
he e – he ans o med (dimensionless) indica o alue o he i s zone on he OY
axis; x – he ini ial alue o he indica o .
I he indica o alue is in zone 3, he unc ion would look as ollows:
(2)
he e – he ans o med (dimensionless) indica o alue o he second zone.
F om Figu e 2 i can be seen ha unc ion (1) e lec s he si ua ion cha ac e ized by he
dis ibu ion o he smalles alues in a s a is ical popula ion o i s sample, and unc ion (2) –
he la ges alues.
The alue o he indica o x on he OY axis e alua es bo h i s ini ial alue and ele ance. This
is a g ea ad an age compa ed o linea assessmen , since expe es ima ion o he ele ance
o indica o s becomes unnecessa y, i.e. i is no longe a subjec i e, bu an objec i e
assessmen . Calcula ion cos s a e educed, adequacy inc eases. Ano he essen ial ad an age
o nonlinea assessmen is ha no maliza ion (i.e. ans o ma ion in o compa able ones) o
he ini ial alues o indica o s becomes unnecessa y.
Func ions (1) and (2) a e cons uc ed based on he p inciple o symme y. This means ha ,
ha ing he dis ibu ion unc ions o he minimum and maximum alues o he da a a ay, he
sec ions be ween hem on he OX axis can be di ided in o a numbe o cu es e lec ing he
ele ance o he indica o s. This me hodology is unique due o i s uni e sali y. Fo example,
i is possible o ob ain a unc ion ha di ides his sec ion in o wo equal pa s:
(3)
he e – ans o med (dimensionless) indica o alue o he hi d zone.
Thus, we ha e no a poin , bu an in e al assessmen o indica o s. Depending on he chosen
unc ion in a non-dimensional scale, he alue o he OX indica o can ei he be inc eased o
dec eased. The g aphical in e p e a ion o equa ions (1-3) is shown in Figu e 3 (T ishch e
al., 2021; Gine ičius e al., 2022).
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Assessmen o Demog aphic P o ile o Eu opean Union Coun ies
1116 Am i ea u Economic
Figu e no. 3. G aphical ep esen a ion o unc ions (1-3)
F om Figu e 3 i can be seen ha hese asymp o ic dis ibu ions can be applied o in e al
es ima ion o he alues o he indica o unde conside a ion, when i s alue is ixed, and o
poin es ima ion when i s a e age alues a e known.
The size o he in e al L depends on he alue o he indica o and is de e mined as ollows:
(4)
A g aphical ep esen a ion o he in e al wid h be ween he unc ions (1) and (2) is gi en in
Figu e 4.
Figu e no. 4. G aphical ep esen a ion o he in e al wid h
be ween (1) and (2) unc ions
Ano he p ope y o dependencies (1) and (2) is ha he quan i y X a ies om -3 o +3. In
addi ion, he qualime ies o each e alua ed indica o can be exp essed in di e en scales and
di e en e alua ion anges. The e o e, i is necessa y o align he scale o each indica o wi h
he in e media e scale OX o unc ions (1) and (2). Fo his pu pose, i is p oposed o apply
Dependence/Func ion (1)
Dependence/Func ion (3)
Dependence/Func ion (2)
F(x)
х
Economic In e e ences
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