Adolphsen, Ole; Könneke, Jule
Resea ch Repo
A new balance o powe a he 29 h Wo ld Clima e
Con e ence: In e na ional clima e policies a e he US
elec ions
SWP Commen , No. 57/2024
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
S i ung Wissenscha und Poli ik (SWP), Ge man Ins i u e o In e na ional and Secu i y A ai s,
Be lin
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Adolphsen, Ole; Könneke, Jule (2024) : A new balance o powe a he 29 h
Wo ld Clima e Con e ence: In e na ional clima e policies a e he US elec ions, SWP Commen , No.
57/2024, S i ung Wissenscha und Poli ik (SWP), Be lin,
h ps://doi.o g/10.18449/2024C57
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57
DECEMBER 2024
In oduc ion
A New Balance O Powe a he
29 h Wo ld Clima e Con e ence
In e na ional Clima e Poli ics a e he US Elec ions
Ole Adolphsen and Jule Könneke
The 29 h Clima e Change Con e ence (COP29) in Baku e ealed a shi in he balance
o powe in in e na ional clima e poli ics ollowing he US elec ions. While China
played a cons uc i e ole in he nego ia ions on in e na ional clima e inance, ul-
ne able coun ies we e o ced o make pain ul comp omises. Saudi A abia managed
o sys ema ically block p og ess on mi iga ion, while middle powe s inc easingly
c i icised he EU’s clima e p o ec ion measu es. To ob ia e he isk o isola ion and
a oid epe cussions o i s clima e and compe i ion agenda, he new Eu opean
Commission needs o eo ien a e i s clima e diplomacy.
The 29 h Wo ld Clima e Change Con e -
ence (COP29) ook place unde di icul
ci cums ances. The mee ing, held in Aze -
baijan om 11 o 24 No embe 2024, e-
ol ed a ound he New Collec i e Quan i-
ied Goal on Clima e Finance (NCQG). This
opic lies a he hea o he undamen al
con lic in mul ila e al clima e policy, he
di ision be ween indus ialised and de el-
oping coun ies. Donald T ump’s elec ion
as he nex US p esiden sho ly be o e he
con e ence did no hing o imp o e he
p ospec s o an ambi ious ou come, coming
on op o geopoli ical con lic s and budge
c ises in coun ies a ound he wo ld.
The h ee-yea nego ia ing p ocess o
he NCQG, which eplaces he p e ious
annual a ge o US$100 billion in in e -
na ional clima e inance o de eloping
coun ies, esul ed in a nominal ipling
o US$300 billion pe yea by 2035. In
addi ion o indus ialised coun ies –
which “ ake he lead” (A icle 9) unde he
Pa is Ag eemen – weal hy de eloping
coun ies a e also in i ed o con ibu e on
a olun a y basis. Singapo e, Sou h Ko ea
and China ha e decla ed hei willingness
o do so. Clima e inance p o ided by mul i-
la e al de elopmen banks on he basis o
con ibu ions om de eloping coun ies
may also coun owa ds he annual a ge .
O he wise he new a ge changes ema k-
ably li le. I will con inue o include
g an s, loans and mobilised p i a e capi al.
No quan i ied p i ileged access o ulne -
able coun ies was de ined, no any sub-
a ge o “loss and damage”. An addi ional,
b oade mobilisa ion a ge o US$1.3 il-
lion by 2035 does e lec he ac ual needs
(and demands) o de eloping coun ies up
SWP Commen 57
Decembe 2024
2
o 2035. I is o be leshed ou in he Baku
o Belém Roadmap o 1.3T be ween now and
yea ’s COP in B azil.
No p og ess was made on mi iga ion.
A e he Aze baijani P esidency epea edly
ejec ed a co e decision, e o s ocussed
on indi idual nego ia ions. Deep disag ee-
men s be ween indus ialised coun ies and
majo eme ging economies o e a dialogue
on he implemen a ion o he i s Global
S ock ake (GST) led o he nego ia ions
being pos poned a he las minu e o nex
yea ’s in e im mee ing in June 2025. Nei-
he he Mi iga ion Wo k P og amme (MWP)
no he Jus T ansi ion Wo k P og amme
(JTWP) saw any p og ess.
In ligh o he global poli ical si ua ion,
indus ialised coun ies and China we e
cau iously op imis ic in hei public assess-
men and amed he esul s as a success
o mul ila e alism. Poo e and pa icula ly
ulne able de eloping coun ies, which
a one poin s aged a walk-ou , we e deeply
disappoin ed wi h he magni ude and
quali y o he inance goal. Du ing he cha-
o ic inal momen s o he nego ia ions India
objec ed ehemen ly o he comp omise
on he NCQG. In he wide public discou se,
a g owing numbe o oices ques ioned he
COP p ocess as a whole.
The end o he Sino-Ame ican
clima e dé en e?
In all likelihood, he T ump adminis a ion
will wi hd aw om in e na ional clima e
coope a ion. In Baku, his mean ha he
Uni ed S a es was nego ia ing cons uc i ely
o he las ime un il a leas COP34. O e -
all, his ga e COP29 a decidedly ansi ional
cha ac e . Some a enues o coope a ion
con inued o unc ion, o he s seemed o
appea p ecisely because o he expec a ion
o Washing on’s imminen wi hd awal. A
he same ime, he espec i e cons ella ions
on ossil uels and inancing showed clea ly
which way he wind is blowing.
T ump’s elec ion: No deal-b eake
(ye )
His o ically, he ole o he Uni ed S a es
in in e na ional clima e policy has been
ambi alen a bes . A COP29, howe e , he
Biden adminis a ion main ained i s con-
s uc i e s ance o ecen yea s. A COP27
(2022), Washing on elinquished i s long-
s anding esis ance o he discussion o loss
and damage. And in 2024 i made i s i s
signi ican con ibu ion o in e na ional
clima e inance (US$11 billion) – al hough
his is small in ligh o i s his o ical espon-
sibili y. Washing on’s diploma ic weigh
was c ucial o he ag eemen on he i s
Global S ock ake in Dubai 2023. A home,
he Biden adminis a ion has c ea ed a
obus plan o g eenhouse gas educ ion
wi h he In la ion Reduc ion Ac (IRA),
which should a leas ensu e he con inued
expansion o enewable ene gy unde he
T ump adminis a ion.
Despi e hei g owing i al y, clima e
policy emained a key a ea o coope a ion
be ween he Uni ed S a es and China (apa
om a b ie in e up ion in 2022). Ag ee-
men s be ween hem c ea ed he basis o
impo an successes in nego ia ions, such
as he enewable ene gy a ge s a COP28
and p og ess in dealing wi h non-CO2 g een-
house gases like me hane. Du ing COP29,
hei in o mal unde s anding on he dono
base se ed as a baseline o ag eemen
on he NCQG. As well as so ening hei
bila e al ela ionship as a whole, clima e
coope a ion hus also p o ec ed he COP-
p ocess om becoming ano he a ena o
he US-China con lic .
China in he lead?
China has buil up a dominan posi ion in
g een echnologies and supply chains o e
he pas decade, while i s his o ical emis-
sions ha e jus su passed he EU’s o he
i s ime. The likelihood o Washing on
wi hd awing om he Pa is Ag eemen
p esen s China wi h an oppo uni y o
ansla e i s indus ial p owess in o a na a-
i e leade ship ole in mul ila e al clima e
SWP Commen 57
Decembe 2024
3
nego ia ions. A COP29 China exp essed
a gene al willingness o shoulde mo e
esponsibili y and epea edly emphasised
i s commi men o mul ila e alism.
This new openness was mos appa en
in ela ion o he NCQG. Fo he i s ime,
China did no cha ac e ise i s enewable
ene gy in es men s in de eloping coun ies
(US$24.5 billion since 2016) as Sou h-Sou h
coope a ion, bu explici ly used UN e mi-
nology ha cha ac e ises such in es men s
as pa o in e na ional clima e inance. In
doing so, China was signalling ha i would
become pa o he dono base, albei on a
olun a y basis and as a de eloping coun-
y. La e , China also suppo ed he comp o-
mise ha will allow de eloping coun ies’
con ibu ions o mul ila e al de elopmen
banks o coun owa ds he NCQG – he
e y poin o which India objec ed du ing
he u bulen end o he con e ence. China
also coo dina ed cons uc i ely wi h he
EU’s nego ia ing eam, led by EU Commis-
sione Wopke Hoeks a, on he NCQG and
managed o p e en majo eme ging econo-
mies om blocking i – wi h he excep ion
o India.
Ne e heless, China’s commi men
should no be o e s a ed. A no poin was
China p epa ed o ha e i s s a us as a
de eloping coun y ques ioned and make
mo e han olun a y con ibu ions based
on unds ha would ha e lowed anyway.
In he nego ia ions on mi iga ion China
showed conside ably less willingness o
abili y o exe decisi e in luence on ob-
s uc i e ac o s wi hin he G77. Looking
ahead, he key ques ion is he ex en o
which China’s ac ions we e a ansien
esponse o he expec ed US wi hd awal
om he Pa is Ag eemen and a subsequen
poli ical decision o publicly suppo mul i-
la e alism, o whe he i indica es a long-
e m shi . China’s na ionally de e mined
con ibu ion (NDC) will p o ide a i s indi-
ca ion.
Di icul condi ions o
p og essi e coali ions
The EU’s clima e diplomacy e ol es
a ound o ming p og essi e coali ions o
he ene gy ansi ion, as a COP28 in Dubai.
This will be mo e di icul wi hou he Uni -
ed S a es, and wi h p e iously allied de el-
oping na ions disappoin ed by he ou come
o COP29. In Baku he Small Island De el-
oping S a es (SIDS) and Leas De eloped
Coun ies (LDCs) we e o ced o make pain-
ul concessions in o de o secu e he con-
inua ion o he mul ila e al p ocess. They
a e he big lose s o he clima e inance
comp omise eached a COP29. Nei he he
EU no China we e able o e ec i ely e-
p esen hei in e es s, e en hough hey
in ol ed hese coun y g oups in he p o-
cess is-à- is he P esidency. As a esul ,
he High Ambi ion Coali ion (HAC) o p o-
g essi e indus ialised and de eloping
coun ies, which had o en ca alysed b eak-
h oughs in pas nego ia ions, was unable
o make an impac ei he .
Towa ds he end o he i s week o he
con e ence, he Dubai Coali ion o a ound
120 coun ies success ully insis ed ha
mi iga ion would o m pa o he o e all
COP29 package. Howe e , he “Like-Minded
De eloping Coun ies” (LMDCs) esis ed
p og ess on mi iga ion un il he e y end.
Saudi A abia in pa icula used e e y
diploma ic ool a ailable o unde mine he
GST esul s o COP28 and p e en ed any
men ion o ossil uels. The o e whelming
momen um ha had led Saudi A abia o
accep he mo e away om ossil uels in
he GST nego ia ions in 2023 p o ed oo
ha d o eplica e. The P esidency’s conduc ,
in pa icula he lack o consul a ion wi h
ulne able coun ies du ing he inal phase,
accen ua ed hese di icul ies.
Middle powe s a he cen e
In he wide con ex o shi ing powe
ela ions, middle powe s om he Global
Sou h play a cen al ole. Fo all B azil’s
commi men , ein o ced by i s ole as hos
SWP Commen 57
Decembe 2024
4
o COP30 in Belém, he e is no denying ha
middle powe s a e using hei new- ound
s eng h o block a he han o m p og es-
si e coali ions.. Thei ep esen a ion in
a ious nego ia ing g oups (BASIC, LMDCs,
OPEC, A ab G oup) allows hem o posi ion
hemsel es lexibly on speci ic issues. The
LMDC g oup usually a emp s o slow p o-
g ess on mi iga ion, and has inc easingly
in luenced he nego ia ing p ocess as a
whole. I insis s on he p inciple o common
bu di e en ia ed esponsibili ies and e-
spec i e capabili ies (CBDR-RC), emphasises
s ic sepa a ion be ween indus ialised
and de eloping coun ies, and s esses he
p inciple o na ional sel -de e mina ion in
a ou o global goals in all a eas. China,
he G77 and he LMDCs a e likely o emain
commi ed o p og ess in he a eas o adap-
a ion and inance. Mi iga ion, howe e ,
isks being inc easingly sidelined.
In addi ion, esis ance o EU clima e
policy is g owing among middle powe s,
and pu ing he EU unde p essu e. COP29
saw enewed a emp s – coo dina ed by
minis e ial mee ings o he BASIC g oup
(B azil, Sou h A ica, India and China) and
he BRICS+ – o place he Ca bon Bo de
Adjus men Mechanism (CBAM) on he
agenda as a clima e-ha ming “unila e al
ade measu e”. The T ump adminis a-
ion’s likely hos ili y o he CBAM and o he
EU clima e measu es such as he me hane
egula ion could agg a a e such p oblems
and isola e he EU, o cing i o play diplo-
ma ic de ence and limi i s scope o ac ion.
The consequences o he EU could ex end
well beyond he clima e nego ia ions, o
jeopa dise he new Eu opean Commission’s
clima e and compe i ion agenda and i s
o eign policy as a whole.
Recommenda ions o he 2024–
2029 EU e m
To p e en such a scena io, he new Com-
mission needs o in es in e ec i e EU
clima e diplomacy. I should combine and
communica e he EU’s clima e policy and
i s emphasis on compe i i eness in he ield
o g een echnologies.
Diploma ic suppo o he
Eu opean G een Deal
In o de o mi iga e diploma ic ensions
o e measu es such as he CBAM, he EU
should make mo e s a egic use o o eign
policy ins umen s such as he Global Ga e-
way Ini ia i e and he announced Clean
T ade and In es men Pa ne ships (CTIPs).
Al hough he EU managed o block an
agenda i em on “unila e al ade measu es”
in Baku, a much mo e igo ous push
should be an icipa ed a COP30, which will
be held unde a B azilian P esidency and
likely wi hou US suppo .
Taking he lead on
implemen a ion
The EU can consolida e i s leade ship ole
by consis en ly implemen ing i s own
clima e a ge s. To his end, i should
o mula e an ambi ious emissions educ-
ions a ge o 2040 and p esen i s
na ionally de e mined con ibu ion (NDC)
as soon as poli ically possibly. A p esen ,
all indica ions sugges ha his will no
occu be o e he second hal o 2025, on
accoun o in e nal ma e s such as he
Polish p esiden ial elec ion in May. Tha
will be oo la e o in luence he in e -
na ional p ocess. None heless, COP29 migh
ha e c ea ed an oppo uni y o he EU o
coo dina e i s submission wi h China, in
o de o injec momen um in o he al e -
ing NDC p ocess. This should gi e he EU
a new incen i e o sea ch o ways o com-
munica e a leas he a ge elemen s o i s
NDC p io o o icial submission, despi e
he di icul in e nal poli ics. The Uni ed
Kingdom could se e as an example, a e
becoming he i s indus ialised coun y o
announce he ou line o i s NDC (a COP29).
SWP Commen 57
Decembe 2024
5
Demanding clima e esponsibili y
om China
I China wan s o play a cons uc i e leade -
ship ole in in e na ional clima e poli ics, i
needs he EU as a pa ne in he camp o
he indus ialised coun ies. In e u n, he
EU should demand consis en ly demand
clima e esponsibili y om China. This in-
cludes clea expec a ions ega ding ambi-
ious na ional clima e plans. In p epa a ion
o u u e COPs and o suppo UN-based
mul ila e alism as a whole, he EU should
aim o ul il – as a as possible – he
s abilising unc ion o me ly played by US-
China clima e coope a ion. The 5+1 o ma
– which b ings oge he he Eu opean and
Chinese clima e en oys and me o he i s
ime in 2024 – could be expanded o play
a leading ole in he clima e dialogue wi h
China.
Beyond clima e diplomacy, deepe EU-
China coope a ion on clima e issues would
in ol e iden i ying common in e es s and
ecognising and add essing po en ial con-
lic s a an ea ly s age, especially in he
a eas o echnology and geopoli ics. This
could also p e en China’s alliance wi h
coun ies o he Global Sou h agains EU
clima e measu es such as he CBAM om
gaining u he in luence. Ano he p omis-
ing ield o coope a ion is me hane educ-
ion, in pa icula wi hin he amewo k
o he Global Me hane Pledge (GMP).
In e nally, he EU aces he challenge
o econciling China’s po en ial willingness
o engage on clima e coope a ion wi h he
di e ging in e es s and a i udes o EU
membe s a es owa ds China and he g ow-
ing an i-Chinese he o ic. The EU will
need o embed clima e coope a ion in he
b oade con ex o EU-China ela ions.
Ins ead o isola ing clima e issues, a holis ic
s a egy is needed ha links clima e diplo-
macy wi h ade, g een echnology and
secu i y, and seeks a balance be ween co-
ope a ion and compe i ion.
Ad ancing clima e inance
To sus ain he UN clima e p ocess despi e
di icul geopoli ical condi ions, suppo
o and coope a ion wi h SIDS and LDCs is
essen ial. The success o he Baku o Belém
Roadmap o 1.3T and he ul ilmen o inan-
cial p omises will de e mine whe he hese
coun ies con inue o suppo he mul i-
la e al p ocess and whe he p og ess will be
made on mi iga ion. The EU has an impo -
an ole o play in sus aining he ongoing
e o ms o he in e na ional inancial a chi-
ec u e and wo k on inno a i e sou ces o
inance. Mul ila e al de elopmen banks in
pa icula mus be shielded om he e ec s
o Donald T ump’s elec ion.
To his end, he EU should inc ease i s
diploma ic p esence ou side he o mal
nego ia ions. P og essi e No h-Sou h coali-
ions a e s ill possible: a COP29, he Uni ed
Kingdom, Kenya, B azil, Colombia and
Chile ( e-)eme ged as cons uc i e pa ne s.
The EU should wo k wi h hese coun ies in
o de o ind ways o ad ance mul ila e al
nego ia ions despi e geopoli ical c ises.
Embed COPs in b oade
mul ila e alism
The p ocess and ou come o COP29 p o-
oked unusually ie ce c i icism. Baku
showed ha he COP p ocess may no longe
be isola ed om geopoli ical u moil.
Coope a ion wi hin he UNFCCC is con-
s ained by he demands o uni e sal pa i-
cipa ion and consensus, and smalle club
o ma s a e o en discussed as a mo e p om-
ising al e na i e. Howe e , such hopes
a e egula ly disappoin ed by he poli ical
eali ies – as demons a ed by he expe i-
ence wi h he clima e club ounded by
Ge many, which has been downg aded o
a pla o m o indus ial deca bonisa ion.
Al hough he G20 b ings oge he all
he majo emi e s, i s Rio summi – which
was held concomi an ly wi h he COP –
p oduced no mo e ambi ious esul s han
hose achie ed in Baku, despi e a commi -
ed B azilian P esidency. Fo he coming
yea s, he cons ella ion o ac o s in he G20
SWP Commen 57
Decembe 2024
6
o e s li le p ospec o change: wi h he
Uni ed S a es, Saudi A abia, Russia and
A gen ina all led by ossil uel– iendly
go e nmen s he e a e ewe oppo uni ies
o p og essi e coali ions han in he
UNFCCC. Ne e heless, B azil’s scheduling
o he G20 summi o 18 and 19 No embe
2024 – a he beginning o he second
week o he COP29 nego ia ions – could
se e as a model. Fo wa d-looking planning
o p esidencies and da es can c ea e syne -
gies be ween mul ila e al o ums. Tha
would c ea e a sh ewd oppo uni y o embed
he clima e con e ences wi hin geopoli ical
discussions ins ead o isola ing hem wi h
li le p ospec o success.
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S i ung Wissenscha und
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Ge man Ins i u e o
In e na ional and
Secu i y A ai s
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ISSN (P in ) 1861-1761
ISSN (Online) 2747-5107
DOI: 10.18449/2024C57
(English e sion o
SWP-Ak uell 65/2024)
Ole Adolphsen is an Associa e in he Global Issues Resea ch Di ision and in he p ojec “Clima e Fo eign Policy and Mul i-
le el Go e nance”. Jule Könneke is an Associa e in he Global Issues Resea ch Di ision a SWP and head o he p ojec
“Ge man Clima e Diplomacy in he Con ex o he Eu opean G een Deal”. Bo h au ho s a e membe s o he Clima e Policy
and Poli ics Resea ch Clus e .
