Tone o, Jo ge Luis; Pique, Josep M.; Focheza o, Adela ; Rape i, Ca ina
A icle
Tax e asion and company su i al: A B azilian case s udy
Economies
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Ci a ion: Tone o, Jo ge Luis, Josep
Miquel Pique, Adela Focheza o, and
Ca ina Rape i. 2024. Tax E asion and
Company Su i al: A B azilian Case
S udy. Economies 12: 286. h ps://
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economies
A icle
Tax E asion and Company Su i al: A B azilian Case S udy
Jo ge Luis Tone o 1,* , Josep Miquel Pique 1, Adela Focheza o 2and Ca ina Rape i 1
1La Salle, Uni e si a Ramon Llull, 08022 Ba celona, Spain; [email p o ec ed] (J.M.P.);
[email p o ec ed] (C.R.)
2Business School, Pon i ícia Uni e sidade Ca ólica do Rio G ande do Sul, Po o Aleg e 90610-970, B azil;
[email p o ec ed]
*Co espondence: jo [email p o ec ed]
Abs ac : En e p ises ace signi ican g ow h and su i al challenges in highly compe i i e ma ke s.
Many companies ail o mee hei ax obliga ions, which dep i es socie y o essen ial esou ces
and o en esul s in ax penal ies. This a icle examines whe he companies ha ecei e ax ines
o e asion ha e a longe o sho e li e expec ancy compa ed o hose ha consis en ly comply
wi h ax egula ions. To analyze su i al a es, he Kaplan–Meie es ima o and Cox eg ession
model we e applied, conside ing ac o s such company size, sec o , loca ion, and ax e asion ines.
The s udy included da a om 11,297 i ms es ablished in 2017, in Rio G ande do Sul, B azil. The
indings indica e ha companies ined o ax e asion had a highe su i al a e (69%) compa ed
o hose wi hou ines (38%) by 2023. This sugges s ha ines migh se e as a co ec i e measu e,
helping companies ealign and imp o e hei chances o su i al. Addi ionally, he s udy shows
ha medium-sized en e p ises ace signi ican challenges, possibly due o exceeding he limi s o a
simpli ied ax egime. This s udy highligh s he impo ance o con inued esea ch ac oss di e en
egions and coun ies o alida e hese indings and enhance ax adminis a ion s a egies.
Keywo ds: ax e asion (H26); semipa ame ic and nonpa ame ic me hods (C14); business economics
(M21); de elopmen planning and policy (O20); B azil
1. In oduc ion
En ep eneu s ypically launch hei companies wi h he expec a ion o achie ing
g ow h and p o i abili y. They a e d i en by a ious ac o s, including demons a ing hei
abili ies and alida ing hei ideas. Howe e , when hese expec a ions a e no me , and
daily challenges pe sis alongside ongoing losses, closing he business becomes a likely
ou come, pa icula ly du ing imes o c isis. I is expec ed ha ines o ax e asion se e
as a wa ning o co ec cou se. Tax e asion ines a e in ended o se e as a co ec i e
measu e, p omo ing ai compe i ion in he ma ke and ensu ing ha e enue is collec ed
o i s in ended socie al pu pose. Tax e asion emains a signi ican issue in bo h de eloping
and de eloped coun ies (Buehn and Schneide 2016;Cebula and Feige 2012;Gamannossi
degl’Innocen i and Rablen 2020;Slem od 2007;Cos a e al. 2022).
Hanousek and Palda (2009) iden i ied a posi i e co ela ion be ween p oduc ion
e iciency and iscal hones y, sugges ing ha he p esence o an unde g ound economy
and high ax a es could lead o ine icien p oduce s c owding ou e icien ones, despi e
companies eeling h ea ened by ax-e ading compe i o s. Po e (2012) a gues ha no
all economic sec o s a e equally a ac i e in e ms o p o i abili y and he ac o s ha
in luence i , which is a c i ical conside a ion o su i al analysis. Sec o s wi h small
ma gins equi e a high le el o e iciency. Acco ding o Mazzuca o and Ka el (2020), he
COVID-19 pandemic has posed unp eceden ed challenges o go e nmen s, om p o iding
suppo o ci izens o assis ing s uggling businesses.
S udying ax e asion and co po a e su i al enables us o unde s and he impac s
o go e nmen ac ion on he li e cycle o companies, hus e alua ing he e ec i eness
Economies 2024,12, 286. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies12110286 h ps://www.mdpi.com/jou nal/economies
Economies 2024,12, 286 2 o 18
o egula ion. I allows o he de elopmen o public policies ha d i e business and
economic de elopmen , g ea e compliance, and also g ea e e enue o he s a e.
This a icle examines he su i al a es o companies egis e ed wi h he Finance
Sec e a ia o he S a e o Rio G ande do Sul (RS). The objec i e is o measu e he su i al
o companies es ablished in 2017, acking hei pe o mance om 2017 o 2023. The da a
ob ained a e o icially om he S a e Re enue Agency, which p o ides o icial in o ma ion
ha enables he moni o ing o hese companies h oughou he s udy pe iod. The analysis
ocuses on di e ences in su i al based on size, sec o , egion, and ines, wi h pa icula
a en ion o whe he companies ined by ax au ho i ies ha e di e en su i al a es com-
pa ed o hose no ined. To achie e his, he Kaplan–Meie echnique, he Cox p ocedu e,
and P opensi y Sco e Ma ching we e employed. In addi ion o his in oduc ion, his a icle
is s uc u ed as ollows: Sec ion 2ou lines he e olu ion o he ax adminis a ion. Sec ion 3
p esen s a e iew o he li e a u e on ax e asion and empi ical s udies o su i al analysis.
Sec ion 4de ails he me hodological p ocedu es used in he s udy. Sec ion 5p esen s and
analyzes he esul s. Finally, he concluding sec ion summa izes he s udy’s indings.
2. The E olu ion o Rio G ande Do Sul Tax Adminis a ion
The ax adminis a ion o Rio G ande do Sul (RS) has a longs anding and e ec i e
adi ion o adop ing digi al solu ions o ensu e ax compliance. O e ime, he RS ax
adminis a ion has shi ed owa ds a mo e ci izen-cen ic model, ese ing puni i e ac ion
as a las eso . In a s udy on he ac o s in luencing ax compliance, Alm (2019) sugges s
ha a combina ion o app oaches—including en o cemen , a se ice-o ien ed pa adigm,
and a us -based pa adigm—a e all c i ical o mo i a ing compliance and should be u he
enhanced. Abe bach and Ch is ensen (2007) obse e ha , despi e he seeming con adic ion
be ween he adi ional con ol-based ax sys ems and newe , cus ome - iendly app oaches,
many ax agencies ha e become inc easingly o ien ed owa d cus ome se ice in ecen
decades. Bi d (2010) highligh s ha he e is no one-size- i s-all o mula ha gua an ees
supe io ax adminis a ion.
Coun ies exhibi a wide ange o le els o ax compliance, which e lec s he e ec-
i eness o hei ax adminis a ions, he a i udes o axpaye s, and hei go e nmen
legi imacy. Fo Bi d (2010), he ideal s a egy would include ewa ds o hose who comply
and penal ies o hose who do no . Acco ding o Yu e al. (2017) and Kuma e al. (2023),
he digi al di ide is one o he mos c i ical issues o he adop ion o new echnologies.
The e o e, o e ing simpli ied and accessible obliga ions, along wi h guidance and
eminde s h ough a ious pla o ms, is essen ial o inc ease le els o olun a y compliance.
In o he wo ds, main aining close con ac wi h axpaye s is essen ial.
The ounda ion o he ax compliance py amid is composed o axpaye s who wan
o mee hei obliga ions bu equi e maximum assis ance. This g oup equi es maximum
assis ance, which should be p o ided h ough a a ie y o se ices and channels (In e -
Ame ican Cen e o Tax Adminis a ions—CIAT 2020). In he ligh o hese ends and he
suppo ing li e a u e, he RS ax adminis a ion has adop ed a new model, illus a ed in
Figu e 1.
Companies ace signi ican g ow h and su i al challenges in highly compe i i e
ma ke s. Due o a ious ac o s, hey o en ail o mee hei ax obliga ions, dep i ing
socie y o essen ial esou ces, which e en ually leads o ax penal ies. In esponse, ax
adminis a ions ha e adop ed mo e axpaye - iendly app oaches. In ecen yea s, se e al
ini ia i es ha e been implemen ed by he RS ax adminis a ion. One key ans o ma ion
was he c ea ion o Sha ed Se ices Cen e s (CSCs), which ocus on billing, inspec ion, and
ci izen ela ions.
I is also impo an o highligh ou p og ams: De elop RS, Coope a i e Compliance,
ax educa ion, and asse eco e y (CIRA). De elop RS in e ac s wi h a ious economic
sec o s o assess he con ex , p oac i ely, based on economic– iscal indica o s. I aims o
enhance public policies and s a egies ha boos he s a e economy and ax collec ion.
The Coope a i e Compliance p og am uses a ax in elligence sys em ha ensu es legal
Economies 2024,12, 286 3 o 18
ce ain y o axpaye s h ough ag eed pa ame e s wi h economic sec o s, educing ax
isks and dispu es.
Economies 2024, 12, x 3 o 19
Figu e 1. Model adop ed o RS ax adminis a ion. Sou ce: p epa ed by he au ho s. (OECD 2004).
Companies ace signi ican g ow h and su i al challenges in highly compe i i e
ma ke s. Due o a ious ac o s, hey o en ail o mee hei ax obliga ions, dep i ing
socie y o essen ial esou ces, which e en ually leads o ax penal ies. In esponse, ax ad-
minis a ions ha e adop ed mo e axpaye - iendly app oaches. In ecen yea s, se e al
ini ia i es ha e been implemen ed by he RS ax adminis a ion. One key ans o ma ion
was he c ea ion o Sha ed Se ices Cen e s (CSCs), which ocus on billing, inspec ion,
and ci izen ela ions.
I is also impo an o highligh ou p og ams: De elop RS, Coope a i e Compliance,
ax educa ion, and asse eco e y (CIRA). De elop RS in e ac s wi h a ious economic
sec o s o assess he con ex , p oac i ely, based on economic– iscal indica o s. I aims o
enhance public policies and s a egies ha boos he s a e economy and ax collec ion. The
Coope a i e Compliance p og am uses a ax in elligence sys em ha ensu es legal ce -
ain y o axpaye s h ough ag eed pa ame e s wi h economic sec o s, educing ax isks
and dispu es.
The ax educa ion p og am has egis e ed 3.5 million ci izens and incen i izes hem
o eques elec onic in oices using hei ax numbe , g an ing access o p izes and pa ial
ax e unds. This p og am encompasses a ange o ini ia i es, no ably he launch o he
Meno P eço B asil in la e 2019. This digi al ool became c ucial du ing he COVID-19 pan-
demic, allowing ci izens o ind nea by p oduc s a lowe p ices, educing he need o in-
pe son isi s, and he eby lowe ing he isk o con agion (Tone o e al. 2023b). Two addi-
ional p og ams we e implemen ed a he end o 2021. De ol e-ICMS seeks o e u n pa
o all o he consump ion ax o lowe -income indi iduals, aiming o elimina e o mi iga e
he eg essi e na u e o consump ion ax (Tone o e al. 2023a). Recei a Ce a—a cashback
p og am, is condi ioned on e enue g ow h in comme ce ac i i y (Tone o e al. 2024a).
These ini ia i es no only help cu b ax e asion bu also enhance s a e e enue, allowing
o imp o ed public se ices.
To u he s eng hen en o cemen , he CIRA, which consis ed o an In e ins i u ional
Asse Reco e y Commi ee, was es ablished. This commi ee in eg a es he ax adminis a-
ion wi h he S a e A o ney Gene al’s O ice and he Public Minis y. I aims o de elop
Figu e 1. Model adop ed o RS ax adminis a ion. Sou ce: p epa ed by he au ho s. (OECD 2004).
The ax educa ion p og am has egis e ed 3.5 million ci izens and incen i izes hem o
eques elec onic in oices using hei ax numbe , g an ing access o p izes and pa ial ax
e unds. This p og am encompasses a ange o ini ia i es, no ably he launch o he Meno
P eço B asil in la e 2019. This digi al ool became c ucial du ing he COVID-19 pandemic,
allowing ci izens o ind nea by p oduc s a lowe p ices, educing he need o in-pe son
isi s, and he eby lowe ing he isk o con agion (Tone o e al. 2023b). Two addi ional
p og ams we e implemen ed a he end o 2021. De ol e-ICMS seeks o e u n pa o
all o he consump ion ax o lowe -income indi iduals, aiming o elimina e o mi iga e
he eg essi e na u e o consump ion ax (Tone o e al. 2023a). Recei a Ce a—a cashback
p og am, is condi ioned on e enue g ow h in comme ce ac i i y (Tone o e al. 2024a).
These ini ia i es no only help cu b ax e asion bu also enhance s a e e enue, allowing
o imp o ed public se ices.
To u he s eng hen en o cemen , he CIRA, which consis ed o an In e ins i u ional
Asse Reco e y Commi ee, was es ablished. This commi ee in eg a es he ax adminis a-
ion wi h he S a e A o ney Gene al’s O ice and he Public Minis y. I aims o de elop
join ac i i ies o comba ax aud and un ai compe i ion, wi h a ocus on asse eco e y
and holding o ende s adminis a i ely, ci illy, and c iminally liable.
3. The Tax E asion Li e a u e
Acco ding o Abdixhiku e al. (2017), ax e asion is d i en by bo h i m-le el and
ins i u ional-le el a iables. Fi ms wi h low us in go e nmen and highe compliance
cos s a e mo e p one o ax e asion. Thei s udy ound ha i ms less isible o ax
au ho i ies a e mo e likely o engage in such beha io . Simila ly, Ahmadi e al. (2014)
s udied he e ec o ax s a egy on ax e asion in he p o ince o Zanjan, I an. The s udy
designed a ques ionnai e o s udy he e ec s o he ollowing a iables: he p omo ion o
ax cul u e, he lack o belie in ax paymen consequences, he iling o alse ax s a emen s,
Economies 2024,12, 286 4 o 18
ax exemp ions, and he gene al cul u e o he communi y. The esul s e ealed a posi i e
and meaning ul ela ionship be ween ax e asion and he a iables. Baumann and F iehe
(2010) demons a e ha a i m’s le el o ac i i y is de e mined by i s in es men , which is
a ec ed by ax e asion conside a ions, hus c ea ing an indi ec ela ionship be ween i m
size and e asion. Gi en his, he ac o de e ing ax e asion has o he e ec s in addi ion o
i s di ec e ec on ax e enues. The au ho s emphasize ha s ic e ax en o cemen may
ha e he undesi able consequence o educing i m in es men .
Alm (2012) a gued ha beyond s anda d en o cemen policies, ax adminis a ion
should inco po a e s a egies om bo h he se ice and us pa adigm o cap u e he
complexi y o axpaye beha io . S udies sugges compliance does no inc ease linea ly,
and me ely inc eases he p obabili y o de ec ion. Clo el e (1983) sugges ed ha ax a es
should be conside ed along wi h en o cemen , ax simplici y, and in o ma ion communi-
ca ion as alid ins umen s ha can in luence ax e asion. Acco ding o Cu and Palda
(2003), a educ ion in he ax base is an ob ious social cos o ax e asion, bu he cos o he
po en ial eplacemen in he ma ke o e icien i ms by less e icien i ms ha a e be e
able o e ade axes is less clea . The ques ion emains whe he his beha io s ems om
cu en ax policies o i m cha ac e is ics; i is likely a combina ion o bo h.
Du wenbe g and No dblom (2022) explo ed how mo al conce ns in luence ax compli-
ance, inding ha inspec o s’ mo al conce ns o en su pass hose o he axpaye s. Cebula
and Feige (2012) ound signi ican non-compliance wi h he ax code and he ede al income
ax e asion in he U.S. The au ho s disco e ed ha be ween 18% and 23% o o al epo able
income may no ha e been adequa ely epo ed o he IRS. Meanwhile, Buehn and Schnei-
de (2016) concluded ha ax e asion is dec easing on a e age, bu also indi idually in
38 OECD coun ies, be ween 1999 and 2010. The a e age size o ax e asion in 1999 was
3.6% o GDP and his alue dec eases less s eadily o 2.5% o 2.8% o o icial GDP in he
yea s 2009 and 2010.
An a icle by Gamannossi degl’Innocen i and Rablen (2020) p o ided a heo e ical
ad ancemen by demons a ing a link be ween ne wo k cen ali y in a social ne wo k and
ax e asion. In a con ex in which ax au ho i ies a e in es ing in echnology ha seeks
o build social ne wo ks, i shows ha in o ma ion om he ne wo k can allow a be e
p edic ion o e enue bene i s in he case o ca ying ou an audi on a speci ic axpaye .
Fo a ax au ho i y ha is un amilia wi h he use o he social ne wo k, he s udy e eals
s ong ini ial e enue gains om acqui ing ela i ely small amoun s o in o ma ion om
he ne wo k.
Dabla-No is e al. (2019) emphasized ha ax e asion nega i ely impac s a coun y’s
e enue and de elopmen , which o en dis o s compe i ion. Thei s udy po aying he
sel - epo ed sha e o decla ed income as a p oxy o ax e asion sugges s ha p oduc i i y
imp o emen s could educe ax e asion. Acco ding o Dabla-No is e al. (2020), ax
compliance cos s end o be disp opo iona ely highe o small and young businesses.
The au ho s examined how ax adminis a ion quali y a ec s i m pe o mance, showing
ha a be e ax adminis a ion helps le el he playing ield be ween small and la ge
i ms. They build a ax adminis a ion quali y index based on in o ma ion om he
ax adminis a ion diagnos ic assessmen ool, whe e he esul s show ha be e ax
adminis a ion mi iga es he p oduc i i y dispa i y o small and young companies in
ela ion o la ge and olde companies.
El e s e al. (1987) conduc ed a su ey on ax e asion beha io in he Ne he lands and
ound no signi ican co ela ion be ween sco es and sel - epo s o ax e asion beha io .
The esul s we e a he disappoin ing as he sel - epo s we e ob ained unde condi ions
ha should ha e maximized hei e aci y. An addi ional analysis indica ed ha a i udes,
no ms, and pe sonali y a iables a e co ela ed wi h admi ed ax e asion and ac ual
beha io pa e ns. Almunia and Lopez-Rod iguez (2018) analyze he beha io o la ge
companies in Spain wi h e enues g ea e han EUR 6 million. The esul s indica e ha
companies s a egically emain below his h eshold o a oid s ic e ax inspec ions. They
sugges he e could be subs an ial gains om ex ending igh e ax moni o ing o smalle
Economies 2024,12, 286 5 o 18
companies. Bé golo e al. (2017), seeking o unde s and how companies eac o audi s,
conduc ed a la ge-scale expe imen wi h U uguay’s ax au ho i y, whe e 20,440 le e s we e
sen o small and medium-sized companies. The au ho s ound ha p o iding in o ma ion
abou audi s has signi ican e ec s on ax compliance. They indica e ha his is due o
an al e na i e isk model based on sen imen , whe e messages abou audi s gene a e ea
and educe he p obabili y o neglec . A s udy by Ha ju e al. (2024) on ax audi s and
ax e u ns in Finland poin s o an immedia e and pe sis en inc ease in p o i s epo ed
by audi ed companies compa ed o non-audi ed companies. The au ho s also ound ha
labo cos s also inc eased, sugges ing a gene al unde epo ing o ope a ions. They also
highligh he inc eased likelihood o bank up cy o non-complian companies a e audi s.
Kaplanoglou and Rapanos (2015) explo e he de e minan s o olun a y and manda-
o y ax compliance among G eeks, which a ied based on he le el o us indi iduals
place in he go e nmen and he au ho i y o ax ins i u ions. The s udy shows ha us
enhances olun a y compliance while powe esul s in o ced compliance. In e es ingly,
in condi ions o high us , he powe o ax au ho i ies does no inc ease olun a y com-
pliance and can e en educe i when us is low. In hese cases, powe migh be seen
as illegi ima e, especially in he pos -c isis pe iod, which e oded us in ins i u ions and
unde mined he us pa adigm as a whole. This highligh s he delica e balance be ween
us and au ho i y in shaping ax beha io , sugges ing ha ax adminis a ions mus ocus
on building us o enhance olun a y compliance, especially a e pe iods o c isis.
Kahneman and T e sky (1979), in hei c i ique o he u ili y heo y, in oduced he
p ospec heo y, which explains how indi iduals make decisions unde isk and unce -
ain y, whe e people unde alue p obable ou comes in a o o ce ain ones. This leads
o isk a e sion in si ua ions in ol ing po en ial gains and isk-seeking beha io when
acing ce ain losses. Cos a e al. (2022) analyzed how decision-making can in luence he
e ec i eness o beha io al in e en ions o inc ease ax compliance. They concluded ha
applying beha io al economics can e ec i ely imp o e ax compliance.
Acco ding o Feh e al. (2015), awa eness o knowledge o how one’s beha io a ec s
o he s can signi ican ly in luence decision-making. Howe e , e idence sugges s ha people
o en ha e li le o no knowledge o whe he hei ac ions posi i ely o nega i ely impac
socie y. Economic incen i es can a ec willingness when indi iduals a e awa e o he issue
bu a e unwilling o change. Posi i e o nega i e incen i es can be an e ec i e ool in
add essing his si ua ion, as demons a ed by o e ing amnes y o ax o ende s in exchange
o delayed compliance. Ma chese (2009) examined he e ec s o mone a y incen i es on ax
e asion wi hin compe i i e ma ke s. Ini ia i es encou aging consume s o ac as audi o s
can inc ease he pe cei ed isk o audi s. Howe e , he au ho cau ions ha , depending on
ma ke dynamics, his could lead o “ma ke e enge” h ough p ice inc eases.
Acco ding o Slem od (2007), a ia ions in compliance wi h du y and hones y can
explain pa o he he e ogenei y in e asion be ween indi iduals. The au ho highligh s
de e ence as a powe ul ac o in luencing e asion decisions, conside ing signi ican
di e ences in compliance a es be ween axable i ems, which closely co ela e wi h de ec-
ion a es.
Skinne and Slem od (1985) examined se e al economic aspec s o ax e asion and
policies o imp o e ax compliance. They a gued ha he cos s o ax e asion include
iola ions o ho izon al equi y, e ical equi y, and e iciency. The ax au ho i ies ha e
se e al op ions o add ess his, including en o cemen changes, penal ies, ax simpli ica ion,
and educed ma ginal a es. While inc eases in en o cemen can gene a e mo e e enue, i
also comes a a subs an ial cos . Raising penal ies may c ea e inequi ies be ween hose who
a e caugh and hose who e ade de ec ion. The au ho s ad oca e o ax simpli ica ion as a
way o educe loopholes ha a e b eeding g ounds o ax e asion. Sandmo (2005) explo es
he challenges in de eloping op imal axa ion models in he p esence o ax e asion. He
iden i ies indi ec ax e asion as a po en ial issue, especially in he sale o inal goods
and se ices o consume s. The ax e asion decision may be in luenced by a axpaye ’s
pe cep ions o he beha io o o he s. When ax e asion becomes mo e widesp ead, i may
Economies 2024,12, 286 6 o 18
be seen as mo e socially accep able, lowe ing he pe cei ed isk o de ec ion. This is a
good eason o y o con ol d opou . Relaxing policy measu es in his a ea could igge
mechanisms ha lead o a much lowe le el o ax compliance schemes.
Yamen e al. (2023) in es iga e he impac o digi aliza ion on ax e asion and examine
how co up ion mode a es his ela ionship. The indings show a nega i e and signi ican
ela ionship be ween ax e asion and he digi aliza ion o businesses and people, wi h
digi aliza ion p o ing highly e ec i e in educing ax e asion, pa icula ly in low-income
coun ies and coun ies wi h high le els o co up ion. Acco ding o he au ho , in es ing
in echnology can inc ease ax e enues and enhance go e nmen e iciency in esou ce allo-
ca ion. Pyle (1991) examines wo key ques ions in he li e a u e. Fi s ly, why do indi iduals
a oid hei ax obliga ions, and secondly, wha policies should go e nmen s implemen
o educe o elimina e e asion? The au ho highligh s he high cos s o comba ing ax
e asion and concludes ha many s udies con ain signi ican laws. Gi en he di icul y in
de e mining a socially op imal le el o e asion, Pyle sugges s ha go e nmen s a e likely o
adop subop imal policies aimed a cu bing ax e asion. Ye , he e emains a conside able
deba e o e he c ea ion o e ec i e policies in his a ea.
Empi ical Su i al Case S udies
Acco ding o Ins i u o B asilei o de Geog a ia e Es a is ica—IBGE (2023), an analysis o
company su i al om 2017 o 2021 e ealed ha o companies c ea ed in 2016, he o e all
su i al a e was 78.0% a e one yea o ope a ion (2017) and i ell o 43.0% a e i e yea s
(2021). They ound a di ec ela ionship be ween size and su i al; ha is, he la ge he
size o he en i y, he highe he su i al a e. The su i al a e o he smalles companies
was 38.0%, ollowed by 53.8% o medium companies, and 69.4% o bigge companies.
An OECD (2015) s udy unde sco es he challenges small and medium-sized en e -
p ises ace in secu ing inancing, and he ax sys em plays a dual ole, some imes suppo ing
and some imes hinde ing hese en e p ises. Fu he mo e, i highligh s ha he e is a en-
dency o deb o he de imen o social capi al. Acco ding o he OECD (2015), younge
companies ha e a highe ailu e a e han olde ones, wi h o e hal o companies ailing
by hei i h yea . A s udy by Resende e al. (2016) highligh s he posi i e ole played by
company size in su i al and he nega i e in luence exe ed by he minimum e iciency
scale and he subop imal scale. A s udy by Conceição e al. (2018) iden i ied ha compa-
nies c ea ed in 2007 and op ing o Simples Nacional had a 30% lowe chance o su i al
compa ed o non-op ing companies. A s udy by Rodas Céspedes e al. (2020) on company
su i al a es in RS om he pe iod 2007–2013 showed highe su i al a es in compa-
nies wi h mo e employees. In his s udy, smalle companies had he lowes su i al a e,
equi alen o 34% in yea 7. Ma a and Po ugal (1994) ound ha in Po uguese indus ial
companies, one- i h o companies closed du ing hei i s yea , and only 50% su i ed o
ou yea s o mo e.
Aud e sch and Mahmood (1995) a gued ha speci ic es ablishmen cha ac e is ics
in luence isk exposu e, and he owne ship s uc u e can subs an ially shape a company’s
p obabili y o su i al. Acco ding o Aga wal and Aud e sch (2001), he ela ionship
be ween company size and he p obabili y o su i al is shaped by echnology and he
indus y’s li e cycle s age. Tone o e al. (2024b) applied a su i al analysis o small
businesses du ing he COVID-19 pandemic in Rio G ande do Sul, B azil. The au ho s
highligh a ela ion be ween size and su i al o small businesses in he simpli ied ax
sys em, wi h highe esilience in companies wi h highe annual e enues. Howe e ,
su i al a es we e wo se in he me opoli an a eas; de Ceza o Ebe ha d and Focheza o
(2024) highligh ed ha being loca ed in a me opoli an egion inc eases he chance o
o e coming c ises by 95%. Me opoli an a eas demons a ed be e esilience du ing
he 2008 global inancial c isis, pa icula ly in job eco e y, likely due o economies o
agglome a ions and be e in as uc u e.
Economies 2024,12, 286 7 o 18
4. Me hods
Su i al analysis is one o he mos commonly applied s a is ical echniques, pa icu-
la ly he Kaplan–Meie es ima o (Kaplan and Meie 1958), and is o en used in conjunc ion
wi h he Cox model (Cox 1972). The esponse a iable in su i al analysis is he ime un il
he occu ence o an e en o in e es , e e ed o as he “ ailu e ime,” which in his con ex
is he closu e o a company. Colosimo and Giolo (2021) s a e ha su i al analysis aims
o de e mine he p obabili y o su i al and he isk o closu e o a g oup o companies,
wi h ime and o he known ac o s as co a ia es se ing as de e minan s. Acco ding o
Ca alho e al. (2011), su i al analysis is pa icula ly used o add essing cases whe e he
e en ’s likelihood is no cons an o e ime.
The main cha ac e is ic o he da abase is he p esence o censo ship, which in his case
e e s o companies ha su i ed. Wi hou censo ed da a, o he s a is ical echniques, such
as eg ession analysis, could be applied. Howe e , he Kaplan–Meie me hod has limi a-
ions when wo king wi h small samples, compe i i e censo ship, o long- e m p ojec ions.
Addi ionally, i does no accoun o co a ia es, which is why he Cox model is o en used
in combina ion. Go inda ajulu and D’Agos ino (2020) poin ou ha he assump ion ha
censo ship mus be independen o he eal ime o he e en has o en been unde es ima ed
in su i al analyses. The au ho highligh s he e olu ion ha he Cox model b ough wi h
semipa ame ic analysis.
In his s udy, we aim o in es iga e he ex en o which ines o ax e asion in RS
ha e impac ed he su i al o companies o e he pas se en yea s. The da a o his
analysis we e sou ced om he Re enue Agency o RS, co e ing he pe iod om 2017
o 2023. Ou ocus is on companies es ablished in 2017 and egis e ed in he RS s a e
sys em. I is impo an o no e ha he B azilian economy unde wen a unique c isis in
2015 and 2016, cha ac e ized by high in la ion (exceeding 10%) and a ecession, which was
linked o a poli ical c isis culmina ing in he impeachmen o he p esiden . Economic
eco e y began in 2017, and by 2018, he mac oeconomic indica o s showed imp o emen .
Howe e , in 2020, he B azilian economy aced he epe cussions o he pandemic, leading
o logis ical ins abili y in he supply o p oduc s on bo h local and global scales, and
in la ion e-eme ged as a signi ican conce n. To alle ia e he economic impac , se e al
measu es we e implemen ed, including budge a y suppo o indi iduals and businesses,
he pos ponemen o ax paymen s, and he suspension o ac i e deb collec ion p ocesses
and ax li iga ion.
Companies we e ca ego ized in o h ee b acke s based on hei size. The i s b acke
comp ises he small businesses unde simpli ied ax egula ions. The second and hi d
bands consis o companies subjec o s anda d ax egula ions wi h medium-sized com-
panies de ined as hose wi h annual e enues below BRL 20 million, while la ge-sized
companies ha e annual e enues abo e his h eshold. Addi ionally, economic ac i i ies
we e classi ied acco ding o he Na ional Classi ica ion o Economic Ac i i ies (CNAE), and
condensed in o six p ima y sec o s.
The main analysis ocuses on companies ined o undecla ed axes compa ed o hose
no ined. Companies ha epo he co ec amoun o he obliga ion, bu o some eason
did no make he paymen on he co ec da e, a e no conside ed e ade s. Acco ding o
Alm (2019), “ ax e asion” consis s o illegal and in en ional ac ions aken by indi iduals o
educe hei legally due ax obliga ions.
The ined companies a e 1027 in a sample o 23,796. Using P opensi y Sco e Ma ching
wi h a a io o 1 o 10, we educe dis ance by ac o s like size, sec o , and egion. Thus, we
kep 11,297 companies o analyze (Table 1).
Fu he mo e, we analyzed su i al by geog aphic loca ion. The s a e o Rio G ande
do Sul is di ided in o nine unc ional egions (Es ado do Rio G ande do Sul 2011). The
s udy also uses Cox’s semipa ame ic echnique, wi h he pu pose o es ing he e ec o
size, sec o o ac i i y, and egion.
Economies 2024,12, 286 8 o 18
Table 1. Con ol and ea ed g oups.
Con ol T ea ed To al
All 22,949 1027 23,976
Ma ched PSM 10,270 1027 11,297
Unma ched 12,679 0 12,679
Sou ce: Compiled by he au ho s.
The su i al unc ion is de ined as he p obabili y o an obse a ion no ailing un il
a ce ain ime , ha is, he p obabili y o an obse a ion su i ing ime . This is w i en
as ollows:
S( ) = P (T ≥ ) = 1 −F( ) (1)
whe e S( ) is he su i al unc ion; is he non-nega i e andom a iable; and T is he
maximum ime ha can each. The cumula i e dis ibu ion unc ion is de ined as he
p obabili y o an obse a ion no su i ing ime , i.e.,
F( ) = 1 −S( ) (2)
The su i al unc ion is equal o 1 a he beginning o he pe iod, and as ime passes, i
ends o dec ease o emain cons an . The ailu e a e unc ion
λ
( ) is use ul o desc ibing
he li e ime dis ibu ion o companies, as i desc ibes he way in which he ins an aneous
ailu e a e changes o e ime.
λ( ) = S( ) −S ( +∆ ) ∆ S( ) (3)
The inc easing na u e o he unc ion indica es ha he company’s ailu e a e ises
o e ime. In o al, his s udy analyzed 9350 companies, wi h an e en occu ing in 5403
(58%); 3947 companies we e censo ed (42%).
Su i al analysis e e s o he p obabili y o a company su i ing a e a ce ain
ime; i o mula ed by isk analysis, i e e s o he isk o a company closing a e ha ing
su i ed a ce ain pe iod (Ca alho e al. 2011). The isk unc ion can be ob ained om he
su i al unc ion:
H( ) = ( )
S( )(4)
The es ima ion is pe o med using he maximum likelihood me hod. Fo Kaplan–
Meie , he p obabili y o su i al a momen j is es ima ed by he numbe o su i o s a
ha momen , [R(
j
)
−∆
N(
j
)], di ided by he numbe o es ablishmen s a isk up o ha
momen R( j):
ˆ
Skm( )=∏
j: j≤
R( j)R( j)−∆N( j)
R( j)=∏
j: j≤
1−
∆N( j)
R( j)(5)
The unc ion can be ep esen ed acco ding o s a a o igina ing om he classi ica ion
o co a ia es, hus being able o e alua e he su i al o subg oups, which may p esen
impo an a ia ions. The Log- ank hypo hesis es is used o e alua e hese subg oups.
The null hypo hesis is ha he isk is he same o each ex ac .
To es ima e he e ec s o co a ia es, Cox modeling is used. This model adop s p o-
po ional isks, ha is, he isk o closing a company does no a y o e ime in ela ion
o ano he company. The Cox model es ima es p opo ional ailu e a es acco ding o
Equa ion (6).
α(X) = α0 ( ) exp {X′β} (6)
The ec o X wi h p is a co a ia e, he ec o
β
wi h p is an unknown pa ame e ,
and
α
(X) is he ailu e a e unc ion. This can be es ed by a g aphical app oach o by he
Economies 2024,12, 286 15 o 18
e al. (2015) is sui able o guiding he e olu ion o ax compliance h ough educa ion,
punishmen , and ewa d, wi h he s udy indica ing ha punishmen was e ec i e.
Fo Cu and Palda (2003), he e was a ques ion o be cla i ied, namely whe he ax
e asion beha io esul s om cu en ax policies o om company cha ac e is ics, o bo h.
Ou s udy con i ms ha his occu s in bo h cases, due o he esul s o he in e ac ion
a iable o e asion wi h small companies in he simpli ied axa ion egime. Fu he mo e,
he same e ec ound by Almunia and Lopez-Rod iguez (2018) may be occu ing in ou
case s udy in RS, ha is, many companies seek o emain below he e enue limi o
he simpli ied axa ion egime o op imize hei esul s. The esul s we ound con adic
Ha ju e al.’s (2024) sugges ion ha he e is a highe p obabili y o bank up cy o audi ed
companies.
Ou s udy p esen s unexpec ed esul s ega ding company size. The ca ego iza ion
o smalle companies, ollowed by medium and la ge companies, did no demons a e a
posi i e linea co ela ion wi h su i al o companies in RS du ing he obse ed pe iod.
The analysis sugges s ha he di icul ies aced by medium-sized companies in B azil may
s em om su passing he limi o he simpli ied ax egime, he challenges posed by G eine
model (delega ion, coo dina ion, e c.) in e ms o g ow h, o a combina ion o bo h ac o s.
This indica es a need o modi y he limi s o simpli ied axa ion and o acili a e a smoo he
ansi ion o highe e enue h esholds. Addi ionally, he e is a p essing need o enhanced
suppo se ices o medium-sized companies.
6. Conclusions
This s udy aimed o de e mine whe he companies ined o ax e asion ha e a longe
o sho e li espan compa ed o hose ha comply wi h ax obliga ions. The Kaplan–Meie
es ima o and Cox eg ession model we e used o analyze he su i al a es o companies
based on size, sec o , and ax e asion ines. The a iables used we e company size (small,
medium, la ge), sec o o ac i i y, geog aphic loca ion, and ax e asion ines. Da a we e
collec ed om he S a e Re enue Agency o Rio G ande do Sul, co e ing 11,297 companies
es ablished in 2017.
The key indings indica e ha he su i al a e dec eases o e ime, wi h a signi ican
d op in he ea ly yea s and he i s yea o COVID-19. In 2023, 41% o he companies
su i ed, showing a decline om he ini ial 94% su i al a e in 2017. Rega ding company
size, he la ge companies (annual e enue > BRL 20 million) had he highes su i al
a e (79% in 2023), as expec ed; small companies unde he simpli ied ax sys em had a
su i al a e o 52%, while medium-sized companies had he lowes su i al a e (34%).
The inding con adic s he no ion o a linea and posi i e ela ionship be ween size and
su i al. Medium-sized companies ace signi ican challenges, possibly due o exceeding
he simpli ied ax egime limi s o managemen issues as pe he G eine g ow h model.
The ele ance o he simpli ied ax egime op ion is con i med in Conceição e al. (2018).
Howe e , he sec o analysis shows ha ag icul u e and indus y sec o s had highe
su i al a es (60% and 46%, espec i ely). Rega ding he ines, companies ha we e ined
ha e be e su i al a es (69%) compa ed o hose ha we e no ined (38%). Fines in
he ansi o goods p esen a majo e ec . The medium-sized companies ha we e ined
show a lowe e ec in su i al a es. The companies ha a e habi ually ined ha e a be e
su i al a e, and he highes ines also ha e he same e ec .
The Cox analysis highligh s ha he me opoli an a ea has he wo s su i al a e. All
o he egions p esen be e chances o i m su i al. Region 9, including he No heas ,
No h, and P oduc ion, has a educ ion in he p obabili y o a i m closing o 36%, which
is he bes loca ion. The main subjec o his esea ch, he e ec s o ax e asion ines,
su p isingly, e eals ha companies ined o ax e asion had highe su i al a es. Small
companies ined o ax e asion show a 79% inc ease in he p obabili y o su i al. This
sugges s ha ines migh ac as a co ec i e measu e, helping companies ealign and
imp o e hei chances o su i al. I shows ha ax ines do no end o lead companies o
close hei doo s.
Economies 2024,12, 286 16 o 18
The esul s emphasize he e ec i eness o he ax compliance py amid model in
imp o ing co po a e esilience, co obo a ing he impo ance o imp o ing he ax au ho -
i ies’ ela ionship wi h he axpaye . This s udy highligh s he impo ance o con inued
esea ch ac oss di e en egions and coun ies o alida e hese indings and imp o e ax
adminis a ion s a egies. Fu u es lines o esea ch should explo e he e ec s no iced in
medium-sized companies, which pe haps come om he s age o company g ow h, o
he ax egime applied, o e en o he s uc u e o go e nance, amilia o no . Ano he
necessa y line o esea ch is o e i y whe he companies a e looking o ways o emain
below he simpli ied egime’s e enue limi o BRL 4.8 million, ei he by epo ing less
e enue o by c ea ing holding companies.
This esea ch p o ides aluable insigh s in o he ela ionship be ween ax compli-
ance and company su i al, o e ing a obus ounda ion o u u e s udies and pol-
icy de elopmen .
Au ho Con ibu ions: Concep ualiza ion, J.L.T.; me hodology, J.L.T., J.M.P., A.F. and C.R.; in es iga-
ion, J.L.T.; w i ing—o iginal d a p epa a ion, J.L.T.; o mal analysis: J.L.T., J.M.P., A.F. and C.R.;
w i ing— e iew and edi ing, J.L.T., J.M.P., A.F. and C.R. All au ho s ha e ead and ag eed o he
published e sion o he manusc ip .
Funding: This esea ch ecei ed no ex e nal unding.
Da a A ailabili y S a emen : Res ic ions apply o he a ailabili y o hese da a. Da a we e ob ained
om RS Re enue Agency and a e unde ax sec ecy. They a e a ailable om he au ho s unde
eques and will need he o mal pe mission o RS Re enue Agency.
Con lic s o In e es : The au ho s decla e no con lic o in e es .
Appendix A
Table A1. Su i al a es by e asion, ype o ine, and in e ac ion o size and e asion.
Time 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
E asion/No AL = 0 93% 76% 63% 55% 52% 47% 38%
AL = 1 99% 96% 90% 86% 84% 80% 69%
Type o ine
AL = 0 93% 75% 63% 55% 52% 47% 38%
AL = 2 E asion 99% 94% 87% 83% 80% 75% 60%
AL = 3 Fo mal Fine 98% 79% 65% 56% 54% 48% 34%
AL = 7 E asion in ansi 99% 97% 91% 88% 86% 83% 74%
In e ac ion
Size/E asion
In ALS1 = 0 93% 77% 65% 57% 54% 49% 39%
In ALS1 = 1 99% 96% 92% 90% 88% 86% 82%
In ALS2 = 0 93% 76% 65% 56% 53% 49% 40%
In ALS2 = 1 99% 95% 87% 83% 79% 74% 59%
In ALS3 = 0 93% 77% 66% 58% 54% 50% 40%
In ALS3 = 1 99% 98% 96% 87%
Sou ce: Compiled by he au ho s.
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