Chamisa, Moses G.; Sunde, Ta i enyika
A icle
Key de e minan s o ax e enue in Zimbabwe: assessmen
using au o eg essi e dis ibu ed lag (ARDL) app oach
Cogen Economics & Finance
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Taylo & F ancis G oup
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Chamisa, Moses G.; Sunde, Ta i enyika (2024) : Key de e minan s o ax e enue
in Zimbabwe: assessmen using au o eg essi e dis ibu ed lag (ARDL) app oach, Cogen Economics
& Finance, ISSN 2332-2039, Taylo & F ancis, Abingdon, Vol. 12, Iss. 1, pp. 1-20,
h ps://doi.o g/10.1080/23322039.2024.2386130
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Key de e minan s o ax e enue in Zimbabwe:
assessmen using au o eg essi e dis ibu ed lag
(ARDL) app oach
Moses G. Chamisa & Tafi enyika Sunde
To ci e his a icle: Moses G. Chamisa & Tafi enyika Sunde (2024) Key de e minan s o ax
e enue in Zimbabwe: assessmen using au o eg essi e dis ibu ed lag (ARDL) app oach,
Cogen Economics & Finance, 12:1, 2386130, DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2024.2386130
To link o his a icle: h ps://doi.o g/10.1080/23322039.2024.2386130
© 2024 The Au ho (s). Published by In o ma
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GENERAL & APPLIED ECONOMICS | RESEARCH ARTICLE
Key de e minan s o ax e enue in Zimbabwe: assessmen using
au o eg essi e dis ibu ed lag (ARDL) app oach
Moses G. Chamisa
a
and Ta i enyika Sunde
b,c
a
Midlands S a e Uni e si y Gwe u, Gwe u, Midlands P o ince, Zimbabwe;
b
Namibia Uni e si y o Science and Technology,
Windhoek, Khomas Region, Namibia;
c
T ade and De elopmen Depa men , No h-Wes Uni e si y, Sou h A ica
ABSTRACT
The s udy in es iga es he de e minan s o ax e enue in Zimbabwe using he ARDL
app oach o he pe iod 1980 o 2022. This s udy aims o o e a ho ough summa y o
he di e en ac o s ha in luence ax e enue wi hin he amewo k o economic and
social ac o s. The a iables included in he analysis a e GDP g ow h, he sha e o ag i-
cul u e in GDP, p i a e consump ion expendi u e, in la ion, o eign di ec in es men ,
eal in e es a es, ade openness, shadow economy and popula ion g ow h. The esul s
indica e ha p i a e consump ion expendi u e and sha e o ag icul u e in GDP nega-
i ely and signi ican ly impac ax e enue in he long un. GDP g ow h, in la ion, o eign
di ec in es men and eal in e es a es exhibi a posi i e bu insigni ican impac on
ax e enue. T ade openness, shadow economy and popula ion g ow h a e nega i ely
and insigni ican ly ela ed o ax e enue. The sho - un analysis indica es ha lagged
ax e enue, GDP g ow h, p i a e consump ion expendi u e, in la ion, and ade open-
ness signi ican ly impac ax e enue, while he sha e o ag icul u e in GDP and he
shadow economy signi ican ly hinde ax e enue. Real in e es a es and popula ion
g ow h ha e posi i e bu insigni ican impac s on ax e enue. The s udy’s indings p o-
ide aluable guidance o policymake s in o mula ing policies and s a egies ha
enhance ax e enue collec ion and suppo he go e nmen ’s domes ic esou ces
mobilisa ion agenda by unco e ing he ela ionships be ween ax e enue and i s de e -
minan s.
IMPACT STATEMENT
This esea ch pape p o ides an in-dep h analysis o he de e minan s o ax e enue in
Zimbabwe om 1980 o 2022 using he Au o eg essi e Dis ibu ed Lag (ARDL) app oach.
By examining a ious economic and social ac o s, such as GDP g ow h, p i a e consump-
ion expendi u e, he sha e o ag icul u e in GDP, in la ion, o eign di ec in es men , and
he shadow economy, he s udy unco e s bo h sho - e m and long- e m ela ionships
be ween hese a iables and ax e enue. The indings ha e signi ican implica ions o
policymake s, o e ing aluable guidance on enhancing ax e enue collec ion and sup-
po ing Zimbabwe’s domes ic esou ce mobilisa ion agenda.
SIGNIFICANCE
The esea ch o e s c ucial insigh s in o he ac o s in luencing Zimbabwe’s ax e enue
pe o mance, which is i al o economic s abili y and go e nmen p ospe i y. By iden i y-
ing bo h he posi i e and nega i e impac s o a ious economic and social ac o s on ax
e enue, he s udy p o ides policymake s wi h a obus ounda ion o designing e ec -
i e iscal policies. The indings emphasise he need o a ge ed s a egies o enhance ax
compliance, b oaden he ax base, and add ess challenges he shadow economy poses.
Addi ionally, he esea ch con ibu es o he b oade unde s anding o ax e enue
dynamics in de eloping coun ies, making i a aluable esou ce o economis s, analys s,
and policymake s wo king in simila con ex s.
ARTICLE HISTORY
Recei ed 16 May 2024
Re ised 27 June 2024
Accep ed 11 July 2024
KEYWORDS
Tax e enue; de e minan s
o ax e enue; economic
g ow h; ARDL app oach;
economic and social
a iables; sha e o
ag icul u e in GDP; FDI;
in la ion; shadow economy
SUBJECTS
Economics; Econome ics;
Public Finance
CONTACT Ta i enyika Sunde [email p o ec ed] Namibia Uni e si y o Science and Technology, Windhoek, Khomas Region, Namibia
ß2024 The Au ho (s). Published by In o ma UK Limi ed, ading as Taylo & F ancis G oup
This is an Open Access a icle dis ibu ed unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion License (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/4.0/), which
pe mi s un es ic ed use, dis ibu ion, and ep oduc ion in any medium, p o ided he o iginal wo k is p ope ly ci ed. The e ms on which his a icle has been
published allow he pos ing o he Accep ed Manusc ip in a eposi o y by he au ho (s) o wi h hei consen .
COGENT ECONOMICS & FINANCE
2024, VOL. 12, NO. 1, 2386130
h ps://doi.o g/10.1080/23322039.2024.2386130
1. In oduc ion
Tax e enue is c ucial o go e nmen p ospe i y, as i unds public se ices and in as uc u e de elop-
men and enhances economic s abili y. Taxa ion has a his o ical signi icance and enhances social o de
(Jiang, 2017). Insu icien ax e enue leads o spending shocks and inc eased bo owing cos s o he
go e nmen . In addi ion o aising e enue, axa ion helps es ablish a social con ac be ween ci izens
and he go e nmen based on se ice p o ision in exchange o axes paid. Recen ly in Zimbabwe, he
combina ion o global economic challenges, declining o icial de elopmen assis ance, and en i onmen-
al ca as ophes such as clima e change and COVID-19 has ampli ied he impo ance o ax e enue as a
go e nmen ’s p io i y. The go e nmen has implemen ed a ious ini ia i es o imp o e ax e enue
collec ion o suppo i s de elopmen al goals. These e o s encompassed launching p og ams like he
Zimbabwe Agenda o Sus ainable Socio-Economic T ans o ma ion (ZIMASSET) in 2013, implemen ing
he T ansi ional S abilisa ion P og amme (TSP) in 2019, and in oducing Na ional De elopmen S a egy
1 (NDS1) in 2020. Addi ionally, e o m measu es in ol ed ins i u ing new axes, including an
In e media ed Money T ans e Tax, a Digi al Se ices Tax, and a VAT on E-Comme ce. These measu es
we e aimed a expanding he e enue base, enhancing ax en o cemen , and mobilising esou ces om
a ious sec o s o he economy (Saungweme & Odhiambo, 2018).
Howe e , he na ion’s socio-economic condi ions ha e wo sened and a e ma ked by a high in la iona y
en i onmen , low u ilisa ion o indus ial capaci y, and dec eases in GDP. The inancial lexibili y is limi ed
due o weak ax e enue pe o mance amids inc easing cu en spending and a sh inking ax ounda ion.
Addi ionally, he coun y is bu dened wi h signi ican deb due o i s inabili y o secu e in e na ional capi al
and in es men in lows. The coun y aces ela i ely low ax- o-GDP a ios compa ed o mos Sub-Saha an
A ican coun ies. The ax- o-GDP a io measu es he ex en o which axes a e collec ed ela i e o he
a ailable economic capaci y. I e lec s bo h he e ec i eness o ax policy design and he e iciency o ax
adminis a ion. Acco ding o Modica e al. (2018), le els o axa ion in an economy indica e he esou ces
accessible o unding go e nmen ac i i ies. The conside able luc ua ions in Zimbabwe’s ax- o-GDP
a ios impac i s abili y o inance public se ices. Fo example, om 1980 o 2022, he e was a d op in he
ax- o-GDP a io om 16.3% in 1980 o 14.9% in 2020, wi h signi ican declines be ween 2005 and 2008
caused by wo sened economic condi ions. Vola ili y in ax e enue pe o mance s ems om a ious ac o s
ha need ca e ul examina ion by policymake s, economis s, and analys s alike as i illumina es in luences
on e enue gene a ion and sugges s po en ial emedies o issues ela ed o collec ing axes.
Nume ous in es iga ions ha e examined he co ela ion be ween ax e enues and changes in GDP,
e ealing a posi i e associa ion (Aba e, 2013; Gup a, 2007; Velaj & P endi, 2014). Howe e , hese s udies
o e looked o he impo an de e minan s o ax e enues, such as addi ional mac oeconomic a iables,
social ac o s, and demog aphic cha ac e is ics. Resea ch on he de e minan s o ax e enue speci ic o
Zimbabwe is limi ed. Mos analyses ha included Zimbabwe used panel da a, making isola ing he
coun y’s unique beha iou ega ding ax e enue de e minan s challenging.
O he s udies, such as hose by Ndedzu e al. Pe e , Binha, Jeke e a and Chamisa a emp ed o
explo e ax pe o mance in Zimbabwe. Ne e heless, Ndedzu e al. (2013) and Jeke e a and Chamisa
(2022) ocused solely on he buoyancy o ax e enues wi hou iden i ying speci ic impac ing ac o s,
and Pe e (2017) and Binha (2020) did no include key socio-economic a iables. This s udy aims o o e
a ho ough summa y o he di e en ac o s ha in luence ax e enue wi hin he amewo k o
economic indica o s (such as GDP g ow h, p i a e consump ion spending, he sha e o ag icul u e in
GDP, in la ion, o eign di ec in es men , eal in e es a es and ade openness) and social indica o s
(shadow economy and popula ion g ow h). The null hypo hesis is ha economic and social indica o s
nega i ely in luence ax e enue, while he al e na i e hypo hesis is ha hey posi i ely a ec ax e -
enue. By consolida ing exis ing esea ch and empi ical da a, he s udy will pinpoin c ucial elemen s ha
consis en ly impac ax e enue pe o mance while emphasising a eas equi ing addi ional explo a ion.
The s uc u e o his a icle is as ollows: Sec ion 2 p o ides a li e a u e e iew ha discusses he
de e minan s o ax e enue. Sec ion 3 ou lines he esea ch me hodology, de ailing he econome ic
model speci ica ions used. Sec ion 4 p esen s he analysis o he da a and discusses he indings. Finally,
Sec ion 5 concludes he pape by syn hesising he main indings and hei implica ions o policymake s,
economis s and academics in e es ed in iscal policy and economic de elopmen .
2 M. G. CHAMISA AND T. SUNDE
2. B ie li e a u e e iew
2.1 S udies ha u ilised he ARDL app oach
Se e al empi ical wo ks on he de e minan s o ax e enue ha e been conduc ed, and he li e a u e
analysis e eals a ying esul s. Below is a b ie e iew o he empi ical wo k on his c i ical opic.
A s udy by Mawejje and Munyambone a (2016) in Uganda ound ha he dominance o he ag icul-
u al and in o mal sec o s poses he mos signi ican impedimen s o ax e enue pe o mance, while
he wo-pe iod lagged alues o GDP and ax e enues had a posi i e e ec on ax e enue. Azime e al.
(2017) s udied he esponsi eness o ax e enue o he economy’s b oad sec o s, including he ag icul-
u e and indus y sec o s, as well as se ices and componen s o go e nmen public expendi u e. The
esul s indica ed ha he dominance o he ag icul u al sec o impeded ax e enue pe o mance.
Ikha ua and Ibadin (2019) in es iga ed he de e minan s o ax e enue in Nige ia using ime se ies da a
co e ing he pe iod om 1980 o 2015. The esul s o he s udy indica ed ha he sha es o he ag icul u e
and ou ism sec o s in GDP, ade openness, and human capi al de elopmen had a posi i e and signi ican
in luence on ax e enue. Howe e , p oduc i i y in he manu ac u ing and elecommunica ion sec o s, as
well as capi al ligh , had signi ican dele e ious e ec s on ax e enue. Akin oye e al. (2019) e alua ed he
in luence o poli ical a iables join ly wi h economic a iables on ax e enue in Nige ia. The s udy’s esul s
showed a signi ican ela ionship be ween poli ical s abili y and he absence o iolence o e o ism and
ax e enue. Fu he mo e, insigni ican posi i e ela ionships we e ound be ween con ol a iables (sha es
o ag icul u e and indus y in GDP, ade openness, and in la ion) and ax e enue.
Adesanya (2020) analysed he impac o mac oeconomic a iables on co po a e ax e enue in
Nige ia. The esul s e ealed ha o eign di ec in es men and exchange a e we e signi ican posi i e
de e minan s o co po a e ax e enue, while GDP pe capi a and unemploymen a e signi ican ly
educed i . O he a iables such as ade openness, public deb , co po a e ax a e, and in la ion we e
no signi ican de e minan s o co po a e ax e enue.
A s udy by So o (2020) examined he e ec o ins i u ional quali y on ax e enue in Co e d’I oi e om
1984 o 2016 and ound ha low-quali y ins i u ions, high in o mali y (shadow economy), and ade open-
ness hinde ax e enue mobilisa ion. On he o he hand, GDP pe capi a, o icial de elopmen assis ance,
he sha e o se ices in GDP, and income dis ibu ion we e posi i ely ela ed o ax e enue. In analysing
he e ec o exchange a e ola ili y on Ghana’s ax e enue om 1984 o 2014, O o i e al. (2020) con-
cluded ha exchange a e ola ili y and ade openness nega i ely impac ed ax e enue. Howe e , con ol
a iables such as GDP pe capi a and in la ion posi i ely in luenced ax e enue. AL-Qudah (2021) s udied
he de e minan s o ax e enue in Jo dan and e ealed ha pe capi a GDP, iscal de ici , and go e nmen
expendi u e posi i ely impac ed ax e enues. Fo eign aid had a signi ican nega i e impac on ax e e-
nues. Indus ial sec o alue-added and ade openness exhibi ed posi i e signi icance in he sho un
while ha ing a posi i e insigni ican impac in he long un. A olagbe and Abiodun (2022) assessed he
impac o ade libe alisa ion on ax e enue mobilisa ion in Nige ia. The s udy ound ha ade libe alisa-
ion, coupled wi h a sha e o pe oleum in GDP, posi i ely impac ed ax e enue, while o eign di ec
in es men , in la ion, eal GDP pe capi a, and he sha e o ag icul u e in GDP nega i ely in luenced i . Sike
and Anyanwu (2022) examined he ela ionship be ween economic g ow h and ax e enue in Nige ia
om 1970 o 2021 and ound ha economic g ow h is a signi ican posi i e de e minan o ax e enue.
Mohammed e al. (2021) analysed he impac o he shadow economy and co up ion on Alge ia’s ax
e enue om 1996 o 2020. The shadow economy and co up ion we e ound o ha e a nega i e e ec
on ax e enue, while posi i e shocks o eal GDP esul ed in high ax e enue. Simila ly, Halluno i and
Vangjel (2023) in es iga ed he impac o he shadow economy on ax e enue in Albania o he pe iod
om 1996 o 2019 and ound ha he shadow economy e odes ax e enue. O he a iables, such as
economic g ow h and ax a e, also nega i ely a ec ed ax e enue.
Ta awalie and Hemo e (2021) in es iga ed he de e minan s o Sie a Leone’s ax e enue om 1990 o
2020. The esul s indica ed ha eal GDP g ow h, ade openness, and o icial de elopmen assis ance we e he
main posi i e de e minan s o ax e enue. Like mos li e a u e, in la ion was nega i ely ela ed o ax e enue.
Jeza e al. (2016) analysed he e ec o o eign di ec in es men on ax e enue in E hiopia o he pe iod
om 1974 o 2014. The s udy ound ha bo h o eign di ec in es men and GDP had a nega i e impac on
ax e enue. Ali and Audi (2018) ound a nega i e ela ionship be ween Pakis an’s ax e enue, o eign di ec
COGENT ECONOMICS & FINANCE 3
in es men , and in la ion. Kiang e al. (2021) examined he de e minan s o ax e enue in Malaysia om
1989 o 2018 and ound ha public deb , ade openness, and o eign di ec in es men posi i ely impac ed
ax e enue. GDP pe capi a, in la ion, and manu ac u ing had a nega i e impac . Des a e al. (2022) s udied
he ac o s a ec ing ax e enue in E hiopia om 1996 o 2020 and ound ha in la ion, he sha e o se ice
in GDP, poli ical s abili y, and ax e o ms we e posi i e in luence s o ax e enue. Howe e , he sha e o
ag icul u e in GDP and co up ion impeded ax e enue. In hei s udy on he impac o o eign di ec in es -
men on ax e enue mobilisa ion in Sou h A ica, Jemiluyi and Jeke (2023) e ealed ha o eign di ec
in es men signi ican ly educes ax e enue while GDP g ow h, inancial de elopmen , ade openness, and
consump ion expendi u e posi i ely impac i . Howe e , Musah e al. (2024) es ablished a posi i e and sig-
ni ican ela ionship be ween o eign di ec in es men and ax e enue in he long un, while in he sho
un, i s in luence is insigni ican . Economic ac o s such as economic g ow h, in la ion, and inancial de elop-
men also exhibi ed a posi i e ela ionship wi h ax e enue. Using da a o Tu key om 2006 o 2022,
G€
okpina (2023) ound ha b oad money supply, indus ial p oduc ion index, in e es a e, and expo se -
ices posi i ely a ec ax e enue while unemploymen and exchange a e dec ease i .
2.2. S udies ha u ilised o he app oaches
Pe e (2017) used he OLS app oach o analyse he po en ial impac o he shadow economy on ax
e enues in Zimbabwe and ound a posi i e and signi ican ela ionship be ween he shadow economy
and ax e enue. The s udy also indica ed a compelling, signi ican in luence o o eign di ec in es men ,
go e nmen expendi u e, eal in e es a e, and in la ion on ax e enue. Macha e al. (2018) used he same
app oach o examine ax a ios and e o s in Kenya and Malawi. The esul s e ealed ha GDP pe capi a,
he sha e o ag icul u e in GDP, and he sha e o indus y in GDP in luenced ax e enue in Kenya, while in
Malawi, all a iables unde s udy explained changes in ax e enue. Ade e al. (2018) employed panel ana-
lysis o in es iga e he de e minan s o ax e enue pe o mance in all 15 SADC s a es om 1990 o 2010.
The s udy ound ha ax a es and policies in luence ax e enue pe o mance in he egion.
And ejo ska and Puliko a (2018) quan i ied he impac o mac oeconomic indica o s on ax e enue
in 28 EU coun ies. The s udy e ealed ha ax e enue is s ongly ela ed o he employmen a e,
ollowed by o eign di ec in es men and g oss domes ic p oduc . Boukbech e al. (2018) explo ed he
de e minan s o ax e enues in de eloping coun ies om 2001 o 2014 using panel analysis. The
esul s showed ha pe capi a GDP and he alue-added o ag icul u e a e signi ican ly and posi i ely
ela ed o ax e enue, while ade openness had a posi i e and insigni ican e ec on ax e enue.
The e ec o popula ion g ow h was ound o be nega i e and signi ican .
Using he OLS app oach, Okonkwo (2018) examined he de e minan s o ax e enue in Nige ia and
concluded ha ax e enue was signi ican ly in luenced by eal GDP, b oad money supply, in e es a e,
and in la ion. In Tanzania, employing mul iple eg ession analysis, Bi ababaje (2020) ound ha GDP,
e o ms, and co up ion a e posi i ely ela ed o ax e enue. Binha (2020) u ilised he OLS eg ession o
in es iga e he impac o o eign di ec in es men on ax e enue in Zimbabwe. The s udy’s esul s
e ealed ha o eign di ec in es men signi ican ly enhances ax e enue while o eign aid and GDP
pe capi a impede i . Puspi a e al. (2020) analysed he ole o popula ion, in la ion, and economic
g ow h on local ax e enue in Eas Ja a P o ince, Indonesia. The s udy showed ha he popula ion
posi i ely and signi ican ly a ec ed local ax e enue, while in la ion and economic g ow h had no
e ec . Mueni e al. (2021) s udied he e ec s o poli ical isks on ax e enue in Kenya. The s udy
showed ha enhanced bu eauc acy quali y, ins i u ional e iciency, and democ a ic accoun abili y signi i-
can ly led o inc eased ax e enue, while in e nal con lic s had dele e ious e ec s on ax e enue.
Chigome and Robinson (2021) u ilised he s ochas ic ax on ie and unbalanced panel da a app oaches
o in es iga e he d i e s o ax capaci y and ax e o in SADC. The esul s concluded ha economic
g ow h, ade openness, in la ion, inancial deepening, poli ical s abili y, and popula ion g ow h posi i ely
d o e ax capaci y and e o . Chikwede (2021) ound simila esul s in his s udy on SADC coun ies.
Ha ahap e al. (2018) used panel da a analysis o de e mine he e ec s o a ious economic ac o s on ax
e enue in Indonesia, inding ha in la ion, GDP, exchange a es, and in e es a es posi i ely in luenced
ax e enue. Sa i and Aswi a i (2020) employed he same app oach o he Regency/Ci y o Bali P o ince,
Indonesia. They disco e ed ha household consump ion nega i ely impac ed locally gene a ed e enue,
4 M. G. CHAMISA AND T. SUNDE
while economic g ow h had a posi i e impac , and in es men did no a ec he locally gene a ed e enue.
Using he Johansen Coin eg a ion and VECM es ima ion echniques, P owd and Kollie (2021) ound ha
ax e enue was posi i ely in luenced by GDP g ow h and in la ion, while social de elopmen om ag icul-
u e and mining, he eal exchange a e, and popula ion g ow h exhibi ed nega i e impac s.
To analyse he de e minan s o ax e enue in uppe -middle-income coun ies, Tsau ai (2021) u ilised
he gene alised Me hods o Momen s (GMM), pooled OLS, and ixed and andom e ec s models.
The s udy indica ed ha o eign di ec in es men , economic g ow h, inancial de elopmen , u banisa-
ion, human capi al de elopmen , and popula ion g ow h signi ican ly and posi i ely impac ed ax e -
enue, while ade openness and he exchange a e educed i . Han ahan (2021) used panel da a analysis
in OECD coun ies and ound ha GDP pe capi a, ade openness, and he sha e o ag icul u e in GDP
posi i ely impac ed ax e enue. Fo eign di ec in es men , go e nmen deb , popula ion g ow h, and
digi alisa ion nega i ely a ec ed ax e enue. And ejo sk
a and Gol a (2023) employed panel eg ession
analysis o in es iga e he de e minan s o co po a e income ax e enue in 27 EU membe s a es. The
esul s showed ha GDP pe capi a, public deb , and co up ion nega i ely a ec ed co po a e income
ax e enue, while he nominal ax a e was an insigni ican de e minan , and he e ec i e ax a e sig-
ni ican ly enhanced ax e enue. Co po a e ax e enue was also posi i ely in luenced by he ha mon-
ised index o consume p ices, o eign di ec in es men , and ade openness.
Ihua ulam e al. (2021) analysed he mac oeconomic de e minan s o ax e enue in 6 ECOWAS
coun ies using he panel da a app oach. They ound ha GDP and in la ion signi ican ly and posi i ely
in luence ax e enue, while he e ec o he exchange a e is posi i e bu insigni ican . Unemploymen
and ade openness ha e a nega i e bu insigni ican impac on ax e enue.
O he s udies u ilised he panel da a analysis app oach on de eloping coun ies. Lompo (2021) ound
ha in a de eloped inancial sec o , GDP g ow h, ade openness, na u al esou ces en s, and policy sig-
ni ican ly and posi i ely impac ax e enue, while he sha e o ag icul u e in GDP impedes i . Dale
(2022), in his s udy on i e Eas A ican coun ies, e ealed ha economic g ow h and poli ical s abili y
posi i ely d i e ax e enue, while popula ion g ow h and co up ion pose dele e ious e ec s. Sap ono
e al. (2022) used he ins umen al a iable (IV) and Sys em Gene alized Me hod o Momen s (SGMM)
echniques in 79 de eloping coun ies. They ound ha GDP pe capi a, ade openness, indus y sha e
in GDP, con ol o co up ion, go e nance index, and us in poli icians enhance ax e enue. Employing
he Gene alized Me hod o Momen s (GMM) app oach on 83 coun ies om 1990 o 2012, Za a-Nezhad
e al. (2016) ound ha ade openness posi i ely impac s ax e enue. O he ac o s ha signi ican ly
in luence ax e enue a e he GDP g ow h a e, he sha e o ag icul u e in GDP, he o icial exchange
a e, u banisa ion, and democ acy. Using panel da a analysis, Gnangnon (2023) in es iga ed he e ec s
o he shadow economy on ax e enue. The esul s indica ed ha he shadow economy, GDP pe
capi a, in la ion, go e nance quali y, and he sha e o na u al esou ce en s in GDP unde mine ax
e enue. T ade openness and unemploymen exhibi ed a posi i e in luence on ax e enue.
This ex ensi e e iew o empi ical s udies ac oss di e se geopoli ical and economic con ex s demon-
s a es ac o s in luencing ax e enue. These s udies, u ilising a ious econome ic app oaches such as
ARDL, OLS, and panel da a analysis, collec i ely unde sco e he signi ican in luence o economic g ow h,
sec o al con ibu ions (no ably ag icul u e), o eign di ec in es men , and ins i u ional quali y on ax e -
enue dynamics. Al hough occasionally con adic o y, he esul s e lec he di e en iscal en i onmen s
and he a ying impac s o economic de e minan s. This comp ehensi e analysis ad ances ou unde -
s anding o ax e enue de e minan s and highligh s he adap abili y and obus ness o econome ic
me hods in cap u ing economic ela ionships.
3. Resea ch me hodology
3.1. Choice o me hodology
The s udy u ilised he Au o eg essi e Dis ibu ed Lag (ARDL) app oach o de e mine he long and
sho - un impac o selec ed mac oeconomic and social ac o s on ax e enue. Pesa an and Shin (1998)
in oduced and de eloped he ARDL app oach, while Pesa an e al. (2001) e ined i a ew yea s la e .
Se e al s udies (A olagbe & Abiodun, 2022; Des a e al., 2022;G
€
okpina , 2023; Musah e al., 2024; Sike &
COGENT ECONOMICS & FINANCE 5
Anyanwu, 2022; So o, 2020) ha e adop ed his app oach o in es iga e he de e minan s o ax e enue
in a ious coun ies. The ARDL app oach amalgama es bo h au o eg essi e and dis ibu ed lag models.
The e o e, unde he ARDL app oach, a ime se ies is a unc ion o i s lagged alues and he unc ion o
cu en and lagged alues o one o mo e explana o y a iables. The ARDL app oach was used because
i has se e al ad an ages ha include (i) he abili y o cap u e bo h he dynamic e ec s o he lagged
dependen a iable and lagged exogenous a iables; (ii) elimina ion o au oco ela ion in he e o e m
i enough lags o bo h dependen and explana o y a iables a e included; (iii) use o only a single
educed o m equa ion o es ima e long- un ela ionships; (i ) handling mixed o de o in eg a ion o
I(0), I(1) o bo h; ( ) applicable o limi ed sample da a while s ill p o iding obus and consis en esul s.
3.2. Da a sou ces
This s udy u ilises ime se ies seconda y da a om 1980 o 2022, chosen p ima ily based on da a
a ailabili y. The p ima y a iable o in e es , o al ax e enue (TTR), is measu ed as a pe cen age o GDP,
ep esen ing he go e nmen ’s ax collec ion e iciency ela i e o he o e all economy size. Da a on TTR
we e sou ced om he Go e nmen Finance S a is ics (GFS) da abase o he In e na ional Mone a y Fund
(IMF). The independen a iables we e ob ained om a ious epu able in e na ional and local ins i u ions,
including he Wo ld Bank De elopmen Indica o s (WBDI) and he Zimbabwe Re enue Au ho i y (ZIMRA).
The da ase includes annual da a poin s, p o iding a o al o 43 obse a ions o each a iable. This ex en-
si e pe iod allows o a ho ough analysis o ends and he impac o a ious economic and social ac o s
on ax e enue in Zimbabwe. The da a om IMF GFS and he Wo ld Bank’s da abase a e eely accessible
online o download. Fo da a om ZIMRA, o mal eques s we e made, in ol ing di ec con ac wi h he
au ho i y o explain he s udy’s pu pose and eques he necessa y da a, which was subsequen ly p o ided.
3.2.1. Rela ionship be ween independen and dependen a iables
Table 1 below summa ises he a iables, expec ed signs and da a sou ces. In Equa ion (1), ax e enue is
examined in ela ion o a ious economic and social a iables, each hypo hesised o exe ei he a posi-
i e o nega i e in luence. GDP g ow h is expec ed o impac ax e enue posi i ely; as he economy
expands, he inc eased business ac i i y, employmen , and incomes ypically enhance collec ions om
income, co po a e, and consump ion axes. This g ow h b oadens he ax base, leading o an o e all
inc ease in ax e enue (Besley & Pe sson, 2014;C¸i
gdem & Al ayla , 2021). Simila ly, highe p i a e
consump ion expendi u e implies mo e spending on goods and se ices, likely esul ing in g ea e
collec ions om sales axes and alue-added axes (VAT), posi i ely a ec ing ax e enue (Sil a, 2018).
Con e sely, a la ge sha e o ag icul u e in GDP o en nega i ely impac s ax e enue due o signi i-
can ax exemp ions o ag icul u al ou pu s and inpu s, combined wi h lowe p o i abili y and he
Table 1. Summa y o a iables, expec ed signs and da a sou ces.
Va iable Measu emen Expec ed sign Da a sou ce
To al ax e enue (TTR) To al ax e enue (% GDP) Dependen a iable (The lagged
alue can ei he be þ/−)
IMF GFS, WBDI, ZIMRA
GDP g ow h (GDPGROWTH) P oxy o economic
de elopmen
þWBDI
P i a e consump ion
expendi u e (PCE)
P i a e consump ion
expendi u e (% GDP)
þWBDI
Sha e o ag icul u e in GDP
(AGRIC)
Ag icul u e sec o (% GDP) −WBDI
Fo eign di ec in es men (FDI) Fo eign di ec in es men
(% GDP)
þWBDI
In la ion (INFL) Annual in la ion a e (de la o
o GDP)
−WBDI
Real in e es a es (RINTR) Real in e es a es (p oxy o eal
lending a es)
−WBDI
Openness Le el (OPP) Expo s and impo s (% GDP) þWBDI
Shadow Economy (SE) Dynamic gene al equilib ium
model-based (DGE) es ima es
o in o mal ou pu (% o
o icial GDP)
−WB In o mal Economy S a is ics
Popula ion G ow h
(POPGROWTH)
Ra e o popula ion g ow h þWBDI
6 M. G. CHAMISA AND T. SUNDE
p e alence o small-scale a ming, which o en escapes o mal axa ion (B un & Diaka e, 2016; Han ahan,
2021; So o, 2020). On he o he hand, o eign di ec in es men (FDI) ends o posi i ely in luence ax
e enue h ough a ious channels, such as co po a e axes om p o i s gene a ed by o eign en e p ises
and axes on employee wages, enhancing he o e all ax in ake (Gul & Naseem, 2015; Tsau ai, 2021).
In la ion gene ally has a nega i e e ec on ax e enue as i can e ode he eal alue o money, lead-
ing o lowe eal ax collec ions i he ax sys em is no indexed o in la ion. Fu he mo e, in la ion can
al e consume and business beha iou , pushing hem owa ds non- axable o less- axed goods and
se ices, he eby educing ax e enue (Ki essa & Jewa ia, 2018; Muchi i, 2014). Highe eal in e es a es
may also nega i ely impac ax e enue by slowing economic ac i i ies, as inc eased bo owing cos s
can supp ess bo h in es men and consump ion, hus educing income and sales ax collec ions (Huang
& F en z, 2014; Onakoya e al., 2020; Tanzi, 1989).
A g ea e deg ee o ade openness is associa ed wi h a posi i e impac on ax e enue. Open econo-
mies ypically expe ience inc eased business ac i i ies and ecei e highe income om cus oms and
a i s, os e ing o e all economic g ow h and enhancing ax e enue (Binha, 2020; Ikha ua & Ibadin,
2019; Minh Ha e al., 2022). Howe e , a subs an ial shadow economy usually indica es un axed economic
ac i i ies, which d ain po en ial ax e enues as ansac ions in his sec o ypically e ade o mal axa ion
sys ems, nega i ely impac ing o icial ax e enue (Chelliah, 1971; Chikwede, 2021; Gnangnon, 2023).
Finally, popula ion g ow h is expec ed o posi i ely in luence ax e enue by inc easing he numbe o
axpaye s and po en ially boos ing consump ion and o e all economic ac i i y, he eby enhancing ax
collec ion om a ious sou ces (Khujamkulo , 2016; Jiang, 2017; Puspi a e al. (2020).
3.3. Model speci ica ion and es ima ion echnique
The s udy models ax e enue as a unc ion o mac oeconomic and social a iables.
TR ¼ Economic Va iables, Social Va iables
ðÞ
(1)
whe e:
TR ¼Tax e enue
Economic a iables ¼(GDP G ow h (GDPG ow h), p i a e consump ion expendi u e (PCE), sha e o
ag icul u e in GDP (AGRIC), in la ion (INFL), o eign di ec in es men (FDI), eal in e es a es (RINTR) and
ade openness (OPP)).
Social Va iables ¼ðshadow economy ðSEÞand popula ion g ow h ðPOPGROWTHÞÞ
A e in e cep , e o e m and ans o ming all a iables in he o m o na u al loga i hms, Equa ion
(1) has he new o m speci ied as:
LnTR ¼a0þb1LnGDGROWTH þb2LnPCE þb3LnAGRIC þb4LnINFL þb5LnFDI þb6LnRINTR
þb7LnOPP þb8LnSE þb9LnPOPGROWTH þe (2)
The s udy adop ed he app oaches o Amin e al. (2014), Ahmad e al. (2016), and Hassan e al. (2016)
o de elop i s ARDL models. The ARDL models used o es o long- un ela ionships o a iables in
Equa ion (2) a e p esen ed below:
a1þX
n
i¼0
b1DLnTR -iþX
n
i¼0
b2DLnGDGROWTH -iþX
n
i¼0
b3DLnPCE -iþX
n
i¼0
b4DLnAGRIC -i
þX
n
i¼0
b5DLnINFL -iþX
n
i¼0
b6DLnFDI -iþX
n
i¼0
b7DLnRINTR -iþX
n
i¼0
b8DLnOPP -iþX
n
i¼0
b9DLnSE -i
þX
n
i¼0
b10DLnPOPGROWTH -iþk1LnTR -iþk2LnGDPGROWTH -iþk3LnPCE -iþk4LnAGRIC -i
þk5LnINFL -iþk6LnFDI -iþk7LnRINTR -iþk8LnOPP -iþk9LnSE -iþk10LnPOPGROWTH -iþe1
(3)
COGENT ECONOMICS & FINANCE 7
Hasan (2010) and Puspi a e al. (2020) bu opposes Mahda i (2008), Boukbech e al. (2018) and Tsau ai
(2021).
Finally, he signi ican and nea -uni y e o co ec ion e m indica es a apid adjus men o ax
e enue owa ds i s long- e m equilib ium ollowing shocks, highligh ing he esilience o he ax sys em
and he e icacy o cu en ax policies in main aining s abili y.
4.6. Diagnos ic es s
Va ious diagnos ic es s we e ca ied ou o check he obus ness o he es ima ed model. The B eusch-
God ey Se ial Co ela ion LM Tes was employed o es o au oco ela ion, while he B eusch-
Pagan-God ey and ARCH es s we e employed o he e oscedas ici y. The Ja que-Be a es was used o
es o no mali y. Finally, he Ramsey RESET es was applied o es he model speci ica ion. Table 9
p esen s he esul s o he diagnos ic es s. The null hypo hesis o he au oco ela ion, he e oscedas ici y,
no mali y and unc ional o m misspeci ica ion es is accep ed since he p- alues o hei espec i e
es s a e insigni ican a he 5% le el o he es ima ed model.
The s abili y o he es ima ed model was examined h ough he cumula i e sum (CUSUM) and he
cumula i e sum o squa es (CUSUMSQ) es . The g aphical ep esen a ion o he esul s is p esen ed in
Figu e 1. The esul s e eal ha he model’s coe icien s a e s able o e ime as hey all wi hin he 5%
signi icance le el. The e o e, he es ima ed esul s a e eliable.
5. Conclusion, policy implica ions and u u e esea ch
The no el y and con ibu ion o his a icle lie in i s comp ehensi e examina ion o Zimbabwe’s ax
e enue de e minan s om 1980 o 2022 using he ARDL app oach. This me hod uniquely cap u es bo h
sho - un and long- un dynamics, in eg a ing a b oad spec um o economic and social a iables, such
as GDP g ow h, p i a e consump ion expendi u e, ag icul u e’s GDP sha e, in la ion, FDI, eal in e es
a es, ade openness, he shadow economy, and popula ion g ow h. The esul s indica e ha in he
Table 9. Diagnos ic es esul s.
Diagnos ic es Type o es F-s a is ics p- alue
Au oco ela ion es B eusch-God ey Se ial Co ela ion LM Tes 0.395158 0.6796
He e oscedas ici y es B eusch-Pagan-God ey Tes 1.144799 0.3856
ARCH Tes 0.193117 0.6638
No mali y es Ja que-Be a Tes 1.177878 0.554916
Func ional misspeci ica ion es Ramsey RESET Tes 0.611241 0.5487
Sou ce: Au ho s’compu a ion.
Figu e 1. S abili y es esul s. Sou ce: EViews ou pu .
14 M. G. CHAMISA AND T. SUNDE
long un, p i a e consump ion expendi u e and he sha e o ag icul u e in GDP signi ican ly impede ax
e enue, while GDP g ow h, in la ion, o eign di ec in es men , and eal in e es a es ha e insigni ican
posi i e e ec s. T ade openness, he shadow economy, and popula ion g ow h ha e insigni ican nega-
i e impac s. In he sho un, o al ax e enue, GDP g ow h, p i a e consump ion expendi u e, in la ion,
and ade openness posi i ely and signi ican ly in luence ax e enue, while he sha e o ag icul u e in
GDP and he shadow economy signi ican ly e ode ax e enue. The impac s o eal in e es a es and
popula ion g ow h a e posi i e bu insigni ican . These insigh s p o ide c ucial guidance o policy-
make s aiming o enhance ax e enue collec ion and suppo domes ic esou ce mobilisa ion in
Zimbabwe.
The posi i e ela ionship be ween GDP g ow h and ax e enue implies ha mo e ax e enue is col-
lec ed because o economic g ow h. Thus, policymake s should de elop and implemen p uden policies
o enhance economic g ow h and suppo he domes ic esou ces mobilisa ion agenda. Fo eign di ec
in es men exhibi ed a posi i e in luence on ax e enue, indica ing he impac o i s posi i e spillo e ,
which enhances he p oduc i i y o local i ms. The e o e, policymake s should c ea e and nu u e a sus-
ainable en i onmen ha a ac s o eign di ec in es men di ec ed o he p oduc i e sec o s o he
economy. On he o he hand, policymake s should no be waylaid by he insigni ican posi i e in luence
o o eign di ec in es men as i s e ec s on ax e enue a e long- e m. The long- un nega i e impac
on p i a e consump ion expendi u e ax e enue implies a shi in he ci izen y’s consump ion owa ds
basic non- axable o lowe - axed goods and se ices as hey endu e he p e ailing economic ha dships
and an inc ease in in o malisa ion ou side he ax ne . Hence, policymake s a e encou aged o de elop
policies ha encou age consump ion and in es men in axable goods and se ices and p omo e o mal
economic ac i i ies ha a e easy o ax.
T ade openness is nega i ely associa ed wi h ax e enue, indica ing he nega i e e ec s o a i
educ ions and un ai compe i ion associa ed wi h ade libe alisa ion. Policymake s should y o bal-
ance he non- e enue ad an ages and e enue disad an ages o ade openness o achie e success ul
ade e o ms. This may mean e ising ade policies o imp o e collec ions om expanded ade. A
nega i e and signi ican associa ion be ween he sha e o ag icul u e in GDP was e ealed, implying he
di icul y o collec ing axes om he sec o due o i s hea y subsis ence na u e. The sec o also enjoys
signi ican ax exemp ions, which hinde ax e enue collec ion. Policymake s should wo k on mode nis-
ing and ans o ming subsis ence ag icul u e in o comme cial ag icul u e and collec ax om he
ou pu s o he sec o ’s alue added. The long- un and sho - un impac o popula ion g ow h on ax
e enue is nega i e. This calls o policymake s o in es in policies ha will alle ia e he nega i e e ec s
o popula ion g ow h on ax e enue. In la ion and eal in e es a es posi i ely in luence ax e enue,
bu he in luence is insigni ican , albei signi ican o in la ion in he sho un. This implies ha
al hough hese a e no c i ical ac o s o now in inc easing ax e enue, policymake s should aim o
keep hem a easonable and accep able le els o ensu e mac oeconomic s abili y. Howe e , he shadow
economy nega i ely impac s ax e enue, e lec ing i s huge size, es ima ed a a ound 60%. Thus,
policymake s mus de elop and implemen policies o educe shadow economy ac i i ies and enhance
ax e enue collec ion.
In add essing he gaps iden i ied in his esea ch, u u e s udies should conside a mo e ex ensi e
a ay o mac oeconomic a iables, such as echnological ad ancemen s and hei impac on ax compli-
ance and collec ion e iciency. Addi ionally, inco po a ing s uc u al changes, such as majo policy
e o ms o signi ican economic e en s, would p o ide a deepe unde s anding o hei e ec s on ax
e enue dynamics. Explo ing quali a i e ac o s, like go e nance quali y and axpaye a i udes, could
also en ich an unde s anding o he complexi ies in ol ed in ax e enue gene a ion. By b oadening he
analy ical amewo k in hese ways, subsequen esea ch can o e be e guidance o policymake s
aiming o enhance ax e enue collec ion in con ex s simila o Zimbabwe’s o o he se ings wi h
compa able economic challenges.
In o med consen s a emen
No applicable.
COGENT ECONOMICS & FINANCE 15
Au ho con ibu ions
Concep ualisa ion, M.G.C. and T.S.; me hodology, M.G.C. and T.S.; so wa e, M.G.C. and T.S.; alida ion, T.S.; o mal
analysis, MGC.; in es iga ion, MGC.; esou ces, M.G.C. and T.S; w i ing-o iginal d a p epa a ion, M.G.C.; w i ing-
e iew and edi ing, M.G.C. and T.S.; supe ision, T.S.; p ojec adminis a ion, M.G.C. Bo h au ho s ha e ead and
ag eed o he published e sion o he manusc ip .
Disclosu e s a emen
No po en ial con lic o in e es was epo ed by he au ho (s).
Funding
This esea ch ecei ed no ex e nal unding.
Abou he au ho s
Moses G. Chamisa is a PhD candida e a Midlands S a e Uni e si y, Zimbabwe, and holds a Mas e ’s deg ee om
he Na ional Uni e si y o Science and Technology (NUST), Zimbabwe. Wi h expe ience as a esea che , ax adminis-
a ion expe , and consul an , his expe ise spans a ious a eas, including quan i a i e and quali a i e esea ch, ax
and economic policy design, da a analy ics, and mo e. He specializes in enhancing ax compliance, managing ax
a ea s, and e o ming ax and cus oms adminis a ion.
Ta i enyika Sunde is an Associa e P o esso o Economics a he Namibia Uni e si y o Science and Technology
(NUST), o me ly known as he Poly echnic o Namibia. He is also an Ex ao dina y Associa e P o esso a Sou h
A ica’s No h-Wes Uni e si y (NWU). Be o e joining he hen Poly echnic o Namibia in 2008, he wo ked as a
Teaching Assis an a he Uni e si y o Zimbabwe (UZ) and as a lec u e a Midlands S a e Uni e si y (MSU). His
esea ch in e es s include mac oeconomics, ene gy economics, econome ics, and public policy. Sunde has pub-
lished se e al esea ch a icles in pee - e iewed local and in e na ional jou nals. He holds a DLi e Phil in
Economics om he Uni e si y o Sou h A ica and an MSc and a BSc om he Uni e si y o Zimbabwe.
ORCID
Ta i enyika Sunde h p://o cid.o g/0000-0002-9124-9383
Da a a ailabili y s a emen
Da a used and p esen ed in his s udy a e a ailable a : h ps://da a.mendeley.com/da ase s/j3m 93dsjn/1.
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Ade, M., Rossouw, J., & Gwa idzo, T. (2018). De e minan s o ax e enue pe o mance in he Sou he n A ican
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