China's evolving role in Africa's energy transition: Overseas trade and investment in Kenya, Mozambique and South Africa

Ki yako a, Elena; Bo odyna, Olena; Nadin, Rebecca; Howe, Lo aine; Cao, Yue
Resea ch Repo
China's e ol ing ole in A ica's ene gy ansi ion:
O e seas ade and in es men in Kenya, Mozambique
and Sou h A ica
ODI Global Repo
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
ODI Global, London
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Ki yako a, Elena; Bo odyna, Olena; Nadin, Rebecca; Howe, Lo aine; Cao, Yue
(2025) : China's e ol ing ole in A ica's ene gy ansi ion: O e seas ade and in es men in Kenya,
Mozambique and Sou h A ica, ODI Global Repo , ODI Global, London
This Ve sion is a ailable a :
h ps://hdl.handle.ne /10419/319287
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Repo
China’s e ol ing ole in A ica’s
ene gy ansi ion
O e seas ade and in es men in Kenya,
Mozambique and Sou h A ica
Elena Ki yako a, Olena Bo odyna and Rebecca Nadin
wi h Lo aine Howe and Yue Cao
Ap il 2025
China’s e ol ing ole in
A ica’s ene gy ansi ion
O e seas ade and in es men in Kenya,
Mozambique and Sou h A ica
Elena Ki yako a, Olena Bo odyna and Rebecca Nadin
wi h Lo aine Howe and Yue Cao
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How o ci e: Ki yako a, E., Bo odyna, O., Nadin, R. e al. (2025) China’s e ol ing ole
in A ica’s ene gy ansi ion: o e seas ade and in es men in Kenya, Mozambique
and Sou h A ica. ODI Global epo . London: ODI Global.
Acknowledgemen s
Abou his publica ion
This epo bene i ed om he in-coun y esea ch suppo and alued inpu s o se e al key
in o man s in Kenya, Mozambique and Sou h A ica, be ween Feb ua y and Ma ch 2025. The
au ho s a e also g a e ul o Sil ia Ha ey (Senio P og amme Manage a ODI Global) o p ojec
managemen suppo on his s udy. The indings, in e p e a ions and conclusions exp essed in
he epo a e hose o he au ho s.
Abou he au ho s
Elena Ki yako a is a Resea ch Fellow in he Global Risks and Resilience P og amme a ODI Global.
Olena Bo odyna is a Senio Geopoli ical Risks Ad iso in he Global Risks and Resilience
P og amme a ODI Global.
D Rebecca Nadin is he Di ec o o he Global Risks and Resilience P og amme a ODI Global.
Lo aine Howe is he Global Risks and Resilience P og amme Business De elopmen Ad iso a
ODI Global and Resea ch Di ec o a he Cen e o Resea ch on Go e nance and De elopmen .
Yue Cao is a Resea ch Associa e wi h he Global Risks and Resilience P og amme a ODI Global.

Con en s
Acknowledgemen s / IV
Display i ems / VI
Ac onyms / VII
Execu i e summa y / 1
Key messages / 2
Lessons om he case s udies / 2
Looking ahead / 4
Wha o wa ch / 4
1 In oduc ion / 5
1.1 Domes ic d i e s o China’s o e seas in es men in ene gy and g een alue chains / 9
1.2 Global o e iew o China’s o e seas ene gy sec o engagemen / 14
2 China’s ene gy p ojec s and clean ene gy echnology ade in Kenya / 22
2.1 O e iew o Kenya’s ene gy sec o and g een indus ialisa ion ambi ion / 22
2.2 T ade in clean ene gy echnology / 26
2.3 Ene gy- ela ed in es men and lending / 27
2.4 Impac assessmen : how is China con ibu ing o Kenya’s ene gy ansi ion? / 32
3 China’s ene gy p ojec s and clean ene gy echnology ade in Mozambique / 35
3.1 O e iew o ene gy sec o and g een indus ialisa ion ambi ion / 35
3.2 T ade in clean ene gy echnology / 40
3.3 Ene gy- ela ed in es men and lending / 41
3.4 Impac assessmen : how is China con ibu ing o Mozambique’s ene gy ansi ion? / 44
4 China’s ene gy p ojec s and clean ene gy echnology ade in Sou h A ica / 48
4.1 O e iew o ene gy sec o and g een indus ialisa ion ambi ion / 48
4.2 T ade in clean ene gy echnology / 52
4.3 Ene gy- ela ed in es men and lending / 53
4.4 Impac assessmen : how is China con ibu ing o Sou h A ica’s ene gy ansi ion? / 56
5 Looking o wa d / 58
Re e ences / 61
Appendix 1 Me hodology / 69
Display i ems
Boxes
Box 1 Scope and app oach / 7
Tables
Table 1 Summa y indica o s o case s udy coun ies / 9
Figu es
Figu e 1 Elec ici y p oduc ion in China by sou ce, 2010–2022 / 10
Figu e 2 Annual Chinese o e seas ene gy lending o A ica and he es o he wo ld, 2010–
2021 / 15
Figu e 3 Cumula i e Chinese o e seas ene gy lending, 2010–2021 / 16
Figu e 4 Composi ion o China’s global ene gy lending by c edi o ype, 2010–2021 / 17
Figu e 5 Numbe o Chinese global ene gy sec o in es men s and enginee ing con ac s, 2010–
2024 / 20
Figu e 6 China’s annual expo s o clean ene gy p oduc s by ade alue and des ina ion, 2017–
2024 / 21
Figu e 7 Elec ici y p oduc ion in Kenya by sou ce, 2010–2023 / 23
Figu e 8 China’s annual expo s o clean ene gy p oduc s o Kenya by ade alue, 2017–2024 / 27
Figu e 9 Chinese ene gy- ela ed loans o Kenya by sub-sec o , 2010–2021 / 28
Figu e 10 Kenya’s FDI s ock by coun y o o igin, 2022 / 29
Figu e 11 Numbe o Chinese ene gy- ela ed p ojec s in Kenya, 2010–2024 / 30
Figu e 12 Composi ion o Chinese ene gy in es men s in Kenya by p ojec alue, 2010–2024 / 31
Figu e 13 Elec ici y p oduc ion in Mozambique by sou ce, 2010–2022 / 36
Figu e 14 China’s annual expo s o clean ene gy p oduc s o Mozambique by ade alue, 2017–
2024 / 41
Figu e 15 Numbe o Chinese ene gy- ela ed p ojec s in Mozambique, 2010–2024 / 43
Figu e 16 Elec ici y p oduc ion in Sou h A ica by sou ce, 2010–2022 / 49
Figu e 17 China’s annual expo s o clean ene gy p oduc s o Sou h A ica by ade alue, 2017–
2024 / 53
Ac onyms
A DB A ican De elopmen Bank
BRI Bel and Road Ini ia i e
CDB China De elopmen Bank
DFC Uni ed S a es In e na ional De elopmen Finance Co po a ion
EDM Elec icidade de Moçambique
EMDE eme ging ma ke and de eloping economy
EPC enginee ing, p ocu emen and cons uc ion
EV elec ic ehicle
FDI Fo eign Di ec In es men
FOCAC Fo um on China-A ica Coope a ion
FUNAE Fundo de Ene gia
FYP i e-yea plan
GDP g oss domes ic p oduc
GHG g eenhouse gas
HCB Caho a Bassa Hyd oelec ic Plan
IEA In e na ional Ene gy Agency
ICBC Indus ial and Comme cial Bank o China
ICE in e nal combus ion engine
IMF In e na ional Mone a y Fund
IPG In e na ional Pa ne s G oup
IPPs independen powe p oduce s
JETP Jus Ene gy T ansi ion Pa ne ship
KPLC Kenya Powe and Ligh ing Company
LNG lique ied na u al gas
M&As me ge s and acquisi ions
MDB mul ila e al de elopmen bank
NDC Na ionally De e mined Con ibu ion
NEVs new ene gy ehicles
OEM o iginal equipmen manu ac u e
PPP public-p i a e pa ne ship
PRC People’s Republic o China
PV pho o ol aic
RE enewable ene gy
SADC Sou he n A ican De elopmen Communi y
SAPP Sou he n A ica Powe Pool
SOEs s a e-owned en e p ises
SPV Special Pu pose Vehicle
VAT Value Added Tax
WITS Wo ld In eg a ed T ade Solu ion
7
gene ally a ge ed he sub-sec o s aligned
wi h he na ional ene gy p io i ies o each
coun y.
The epo is s uc u ed as ollows. In
Sec ion 1.1 we ou line he domes ic d i e s
o China’s o e seas ene gy- ela ed ac i i y.
This se s he scene o Sec ion 1.2 which
p esen s he dis inc cha ac e is ics o
China’s ene gy- ela ed lending p ac ices,
equi y in es men s and cons uc ion
ac i i ies, as well as i s expo lows o
clean ene gy echnology componen s.
4 Gi en he sensi i e na u e o issues p obed in his s udy, in e iewees eques ed anonymi y in
sha ing hei iews. The analysis he e o e does no iden i y indi idual in e iewees bu includes
e e ences o ideas sha ed h ough s akeholde consul a ions whe e ele an .
5 O icial sec o lending co e s bila e al lending only and excludes China’s mul ila e al lending, such
as h ough he New De elopmen Bank o A ican De elopmen Bank.
Sec ions 2, 3 and 4, which a e he ocus o
his pape , p esen he coun y case s udies
o Kenya, Mozambique and Sou h A ica,
espec i ely. In each case s udy, we analyse
how bila e al ade, in es men and lending
om China con ibu es o he na ional
ene gy ansi ion goals, he implica ions o
hese on he ene gy and o he sec o s o
he economy, and he gaps. In Sec ion 5 we
discuss how China’s o e o EMDEs is likely
o e ol e, and he implica ions o un olding
geopoli ical ealignmen s o he ene gy
ansi ion needs in A ica.
Box 1 Scope and app oach
The s udy d aws on desc ip i e quan i a i e analysis, policy e iew and s akeholde
consul a ions wi h na ional and in e na ional expe s in each coun y.4
Wha do we mean by o e seas economic engagemen ?
We use ‘o e seas economic engagemen ’ as an umb ella e m ha cap u es China’s
o eign in es men s, bila e al lending and expo s.5 When looking a ene gy equi y
in es men and lending, we ocus on inancial lows in o powe gene a ion plan s,
ansmission and dis ibu ion p ojec s and local manu ac u ing o clean ene gy
echnology componen s. In es men includes g een ield in es men s and me ge s
and acquisi ions (M&A). The ade analysis ocuses on China’s expo s o ou clean
ene gy echnology p oduc s: assembled sola panels, wind u bines, li hium-ion
ba e ies and ully elec ic mo o ehicles.

8
Fo he lending analysis, we use AidDa a’s Global Chinese De elopmen Finance
da ase (V3.0) which documen s bila e al loan commi men s om China’s o icial
sec o ins i u ions h ough 2021. No e ha we canno add ess mo e ecen lending
ends due o his limi a ion. Fo eign in es men and cons uc ion con ac s da a
p ima ily comes om he Janes In elT ak da abase o Chinese o e seas in es men s,
while ou ade in o ma ion is compiled om mul iple sou ces (which a e speci ied in
each ins ance). Fo in es men s, cons uc ion ac i i ies and ade, ou analysis co e s
ends h ough 2024.6
Wha do we mean by ene gy ansi ions?
Ene gy ansi ion is he s uc u al shi om an ene gy mix based on ossil uels such
as coal, oil and na u al gas, o one based on enewable ene gy sou ces: mode n
bioene gy, geo he mal, sola , wind, hyd opowe , ma ine ene gy (IRENA, 2024b). We
ollow he IEA and use ‘clean ene gy’ as a b oade umb ella e m ha g oups ene gy
sou ces, in as uc u e, applica ions and asse s compa ible wi h a ne ze o emissions
ene gy sys em (IEA, n.d.). This includes ba e y s o age and elec ici y g ids, and end-
use applica ions such as hyd ogen uels and EVs.
In each case s udy, we use he ame o he na ional ene gy and indus ial s a egy
and b oade socio-economic de elopmen goals o assess China’s con ibu ion
o mee ing he inancing and echnology needs o he domes ic ene gy ansi ion.
In he case o Mozambique, na u al gas explo a ion is pa o he economic
de elopmen agenda. Na u al gas, which emi s less ca bon han mos o he ossil
uels, is commonly conside ed a ‘ ansi ion uel’ away om coal, o a back-up o
a iable wind and sola powe (Gü san and De Gooye , 2021). While inc easing
na u al gas p oduc ion is no compa ible wi h he IEA’s ne ze o pa hway, we
acknowledge China’s ac i i y wi hin hese expec a ions on he ole o gas in
Mozambique’s de elopmen .
Gi en he limi ed ime ame and scope o his analysis, he epo p o ides an ini ial
explo a ion o Chinese ac o s’ e ol ing ole in suppo ing clean ene gy ansi ions
ab oad. Fu he s udies wi h mo e ex ensi e ieldwo k and b oade geog aphic
each could build on hese insigh s. We discuss some sugges ions o u u e
analysis in Sec ion 5.
6 See Appendix 1 o de ails on he da a sou ces and me hodology.
9
Table 1 Summa y indica o s o case s udy coun ies
Coun y GDP pe
capi a
(cu en
US$), 2023
Chinese
FDI s ock
(cu en
US$
billion),
2022
Ex e nal
deb o
China as
% o GDP,
2023
Impo
sha e om
China
(% o all
impo s),
2023
Expo
sha e o
China
(% o all
expo s),
2023
Regula o y
Indica o s
o
Sus ainable
Ene gy
(RISE)
Kenya 1,952 1.78 5.56 17.61 2.89 61
Mozambique 623 1.18 7.95 15.38 14.30 39
Sou h A ica 6,022 5.74 0.93 20.46 11.29 47
No e: RISE is a combined index o elec ici y access, access o clean cooking, ene gy e iciency
and enewable ene gy ha is designed o compa e na ional policy and egula o y amewo ks
o sus ainable ene gy. RISE classi ies s ong pe o me s as ha ing a sco e o 67-100, mid-
pe o me s wi h 34-66 and weak pe o me s wi h 0-33.
Sou ce: au ho s’ elabo a ions based on Wo ld Bank De elopmen Indica o s, Wo ld Bank
In e na ional Deb S a is ics, WITS, Regula o y Indices o Sus ainable Ene gy, China’s Minis y o
Comme ce
1.1 Domes ic d i e s o China’s
o e seas in es men in
ene gy and g een alue
chains
O e seas ene gy sou ces gained in
p ominence in China’s o eign policy in
he 1990s (Nadin, 2007). In 1993 he hen
P emie o he PRC, Li Peng, announced
ha a p ima y policy goal was ‘ o secu e
a long- e m and s able supply o oil o
China’ (Nadin, 2007). In a bid o inc ease
p oduc ion and ese e olumes, es ablish
o e seas bases and di e si y supplie s,
China’s ene gy policy ocused hea ily
on o e seas expansion and in es men
in oil-p oducing coun ies such as
Russia, Kazakhs an, I an, I aq and Sudan
(Nadin, 2007). I s 10 h FYP (2001–2005),
emphasised he impo ance o ‘ene gy
secu i y’ as a o eign policy objec i e. The
objec i e o explo a ion was o ‘ensu e
a long- e m eliable and sus ainable oil
supply a a easonable p ice in o de o
achie e he na ional goal o sus ainable
and sound economic g ow h’. Wi h he
expansion o i s o e seas ene gy po olio,
China had o ocus on ensu ing poli ical
and physical secu i y along supply ou es in
expo ing and ansi s a es (Nadin, 2007).
How China now de ines he sou ces o
i s ene gy secu i y has e ol ed, bu i s
p imacy as a na ional secu i y goal has
no diminished. This is pa ly due o he
ac ha China’s economic expansion
o e he pas wo decades has uelled
ene gy consump ion, wi h powe
consump ion going up by 560% (IEA,
2024a). As o 2022, ossil uels, p ima ily
coal, comp ised he majo i y o he ene gy
mix, including in powe p oduc ion (IEA,
2024a). The sha e o mode n enewables,
such as sola PV and wind, eached 5% and
9% o he o al elec ici y espec i ely in
he same yea (ibid). F om 2010 o 2022,
10
China saw sola PV elec ici y p oduc ion
g ow om 699 GWh o 427,000 GWh,
while wind powe gene a ion inc eased
om 45,000 GWh 763,000 GWh
7 A icle 21 o he Na ional Secu i y Law, 2015.
8 (1) P omo e he ene gy consump ion e olu ion and supp ess un easonable ene gy consump ion.
(2) P omo e he ene gy supply e olu ion and es ablish a di e si ied supply sys em. (3) P omo e
he ene gy echnology e olu ion and d i e indus ial upg ading. (4) P omo e he ene gy sys em
e olu ion and open up he as lane o ene gy de elopmen . (5) S eng hen in e na ional
coope a ion in an all- ound way o achie e ene gy secu i y unde open condi ions.
espec i ely (ibid). The sha e o elec ici y
gene a ed om na u al gas and nuclea
powe has also inc eased (ibid).
Figu e 1 Elec ici y p oduc ion in China by sou ce, 2010–2022
Sou ce: au ho s’ elabo a ions based on (IEA, 2024a)
Despi e g owing di e si ica ion o he
powe mix, ene gy secu i y emains
a na ional secu i y p io i y o he
Chinese go e nmen .7 The shi o
ac i ely p omo ing wind and sola sec o s
can be aced o he mid-2000s wi h
he adop ion o he Renewable Ene gy
Law in 2005 and he Mid- o-Long-Te m
Renewable Ene gy De elopmen Plan
in 2007 (Ho e, 2024). The 2020 Whi e
Pape on China’s Ene gy De elopmen
in he New E a ou lines p io i ies o he
ene gy sec o , including a di e si ied
supply sys em, p omo ion o he ene gy
echnology e olu ion and s eng hening
in e na ional coope a ion o achie e
ene gy secu i y (The In o ma ion O ice
o he S a e Council, 2020).8 Acco ding
o he Whi e Pape , he aim is o sus ain
in es men in coal and gas explo a ion, as
well as p omo e g een and e icien coal
mining p ac ices (ibid). Since 2019, China’s
c ude pe oleum impo s om A ica ha e
inc easingly been eplaced by impo s
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
GWh
Coal Na u al gas Hyd o Bio uels Wind Nuclea Sola PV O he
11
om Russia, he Gul Coope a ion Council
coun ies and o he Asian economies
(Usman and Xiaoyang, 2024).9
I was he 14 h Fi e-Yea Plan (FYP) o
Renewable Ene gy (2021–2025) ha
accele a ed China’s aims o u he
d i e he adop ion o enewable ene gy
(RE). Ta ge s include inc easing RE
capaci y by 50%, aising i s sha e o 33%
o o e all powe mix, and he sha e o
non-hyd o enewables o 18% (Na ional
De elopmen and Re o m Commission
e al., 2021). Thus, ini ially gea ed owa ds
expo ma ke s, sola p oduc ion ecei ed
s ong go e nmen suppo a a ious
le els, including a ge ed assis ance
h ough low-cos loans (Ho e, 2024).
Ho e (2024) iden i ies ou b oad ac o s
ha ha e enabled China o p omo e
clean ene gy p oduc ion: policy suppo ,
echnology ans e as a policy and
co po a e s a egy, manu ac u ing scale-
up h ough in eg a ed indus ial clus e s,
and he de elopmen o human capi al. In
2023, nine o he op en global sola PV
manu ac u e s we e Chinese companies
(Wood Mackenzie, 2024b). The coun y
also accoun ed o ou o he i e
leading wind u bine o iginal equipmen
manu ac u e s (OEMs), wi h GoldWind
alone ins alling 16.3 GW ha yea .
Howe e , ising compe i ion and in ense
p ice cu ing a e weighing on p o i abili y
in he sec o (Wood Mackenzie, 2024a).
The ea lie s a e-led ‘Made in China
2025’ policy al eady highligh ed new
ene gy ehicles (NEVs), uel cell ehicles
9 Acco ding o WITS da a, in 2023, 87% o China’s $103 billion wo h o impo s om A ica we e
concen a ed in ou commodi y ca ego ies – mine al uels, o es, p ecious me als and coppe .
and elec ic powe equipmen , including
o RE echnologies and ad anced
ene gy s o age, as key s a egic
indus ies o in e nal and ex e nal
p omo ion (S a e Council o he People’s
Republic o China, 2015). Howe e , du ing
he 14 h FYP pe iod, he ole o s a egic
eme ging indus ies, including new ene gy,
new ma e ials, high-end equipmen , and
NEVs, is expec ed o g ow, wi h hei
con ibu ion o alue addi ion a ge ed o
exceed 17% o GDP (Na ional De elopmen
and Re o m Commission, 2022b).
1.1.1 E olu ion o enewable
ene gy and low-ca bon alue
chains in China’s o eign and
ou wa d in es men policy
As he coun y’s economy and indus y
de eloped, he ole o he ene gy sec o
in i s o eign and ou wa d in es men
policy expanded om an ini ial ocus
on secu ing oil ese es o uel g ow h,
o inco po a ing enewable ene gy
p ojec s and expo s o p oduc s along
he low-ca bon alue chain. A numbe
o policy amewo ks we e es ablished
du ing he 13 h Fi e Yea Plan (2016-2020)
o encou age Chinese en e p ises o ade
and pa icipa e in RE and low-ca bon
alue chains p ojec s and p oduc s. This
included he Guiding Opinions o he
CPC Cen al Commi ee and he S a e
Council on P omo ing High-Quali y
De elopmen o T ade, which emphasised
expanding ma ke s and ade in high-
quali y, high- ech and high- alue-added
p oduc s, including h ough he BRI and
12
in eme ging indus ies, as well as g een
design and manu ac u ing (MOFCOM,
2019). Simila ly, he Guiding Opinions on
S eng hening In e na ional Coope a ion
o Imp o e he S a us o China’s Indus ial
Global Value Chain encou aged Chinese
en e p ises o pa icipa e in cons uc ion
con ac s and o expo Chinese
equipmen , echnology, s anda ds
and se ices, including in he powe
equipmen sec o (MOFCOM, 2016).
China’s 14 h FYP o RE p ominen ly
ea u ed he coun y’s ole in
p omo ing a low-ca bon ene gy
ansi ion and s eng hening
in e na ional ade in enewable
ene gy solu ions. This includes
coope a ion in planning guidance, policy
design, echnical exchanges, inancing
and high-le el poli ical engagemen
h ough mechanisms like he BRI
Ene gy Minis e ial Mee ing (Na ional
De elopmen and Re o m Commission
e al., 2021). The 14 h FYP o RE placed
pa icula emphasis on encou aging
high-quali y RE indus ies o ‘go ou ’
and in eg a e in o global alue chains in
equipmen , echnology, s anda ds and
b anding (ibid.).
The coun y’s medium- e m plans o
NEVs and hyd ogen indus ies also
include a s ong ou wa d in es men
and ade angle. Chinese NEV
p oduce s, o ins ance, a e encou aged
o enhance hei global compe i i eness,
de elop in e na ional ma ke s and
10 Fo example, he BRI Vehicles Low-Ca bon S anda ds Resea ch and Demons a ion P ojec ,
unde he BRI In e na ional G een De elopmen Coali ion, p omo es China’s ac i e pa icipa ion
in shaping s anda ds o eme ging indus ies.
p omo e indus ial coope a ion along
he en i e alue chain (Gene al O ice
o he S a e Council, 2020). Consis en
wi h China’s b oade app oach o shaping
s anda ds along BRI in o he sec o s, such
as digi al in as uc u e, simila ini ia i es
ha e eme ged in g een in as uc u e and
anspo a ion.10
1.1.2 BRI and he Fo um on
China-A ica Coope a ion
The ene gy sec o is one o he p io i y
coope a ion a eas unde China’s
lagship BRI announced in 2013, which
aims o p omo e connec i i y ac oss he
Asian, Eu opean, and A ican con inen s
(Nadin e al., 2023). Flagship economic
co ido s like he China-Pakis an
Economic Co ido (CPEC) a e in ended
o secu e he passage o China’s oil and
pe oleum impo s om he Middle Eas
by a oiding exis ing ou es and choke
poin s h ough he S ai s o Malacca
be ween Malaysia and Indonesia (Nadin e
al., 2023). CPEC p ojec s also p o ided an
oppo uni y o add ess powe sho ages
and in as uc u e de ici s in coun ies
like Pakis an. Ene gy gene a ion and
ansmission p ojec s ha e played a
p ominen ole in his ega d, wi h coal
accoun ing o mos o he addi ional
gene a ion capaci y ha exceeds
8,000 MW ac oss 14 comple ed p ojec s.
Howe e , enewable ene gy sou ces such
as wind, sola , and hyd o also ea u ed in
he p ojec mix (Nadin e al., 2023). Some
o China’s inancing and cons uc ion

13
ac i i ies in he ene gy sec o in Asian
and A ican coun ies p e-da e he BRI
(Bo odyna e al., 2022).11
China a i med i s commi men o
RE in A ica and he de elopmen o
low-ca bon alue chains, pledging o
implemen 30 clean ene gy and g een
de elopmen p ojec s and es ablishing a
Special Fund o G een Indus ial Chains
unde he FOCAC ac ion plan. Ac oss he
con inen , enewable ene gy p esen s
an oppo uni y o b idge powe access
gaps. The e is also an inc easing ocus on
alue addi ion in mine al supply chains.
Fo ins ance, he A ican Union’s A ican
Commodi ies S a egy aims o expand
local p ocessing (A ican Union, 2021).
G een indus ialisa ion is also gaining
momen um, e lec ed in Kenyan P esiden
William Ru o’s launch o he pan-A ican
G een Indus ialisa ion Ini ia i e a COP28.
A he mos ecen FOCAC Summi
in 2024, China commi ed o
s eng hening indus ial coope a ion by
suppo ing local alue chains, expanding
manu ac u ing and p ocessing o c i ical
mine als, and d i ing g ow h ac oss
i e egions wi h 10 p ojec s o suppo
indus ial pa ks. P esiden Xi Jinping
ea i med ha ‘China is eady o help
A ica build ‘g een g ow h engines’, na ow
he gap in ene gy accessibili y … and join ly
push o he global ansi ion o g een and
low-ca bon de elopmen ’; pledging o
11 Fo ins ance, in Ky gyzs an, China p o ided inancing o he mode nisa ion o elec ici y
ansmission lines h ough he Expo -Impo Bank o China (EXIM Bank), wi h cons uc ion
ca ied ou by TBEA, da ing back o 2011 (Bo odyna e al., 2022). A yea la e , China also inanced
he cons uc ion o he 500 kV Da ka-Kemin elec ici y ansmission line and he 500 kV Da ka
subs a ion, which we e also cons uc ed by TBEA. These p ojec s aimed o imp o e ene gy
connec i i y and enhance he egion’s powe in as uc u e.
launch 30 clean ene gy p ojec s o e he
nex h ee yea s and encou age wo-way
in es men o new business ope a ions by
Chinese and A ican companies and c ea e
1 million jobs on he con inen (MFA o he
PRC, 2024a).
1.1.3 Comme cial d i e s o
ou wa d in es men
China’s o e seas inancing and
cons uc ion o clean ene gy p ojec s
is d i en by se e al in e connec ed
domes ic economic ac o s. One majo
d i e is he need o in es i s la ge
ese es o sa ings and add ess indus ial
o e capaci y. The Chinese go e nmen ’s
esponse o he 2008 inancial c isis led
o he o e -expansion o he cons uc ion
and hea y manu ac u ing sec o s. This
c ea ed indus ial o e capaci y in he
p oduc ion o ma e ials such as s eel, as
well as su plus in es men capi al and
skilled labou ha we e no yielding high
enough e u ns domes ically (Nadin e
al., 2023). China’s o e seas economic
engagemen , such as h ough he BRI,
se es o edeploy excess esou ces
ab oad, mi iga e hese domes ic
ine iciencies and gene a e new demand
o i s expo s.
Second, China’s economic s a egy
a ge s leade ship in high-end
manu ac u ing, including supply chains
o clean ene gy. Th ough a ge ed
14
go e nmen suppo and demand-side
policies – such as subsidies, ax c edi s
and eed-in a i s, China has become a
leade in se e al clean ene gy echnology
supply chains, con olling o e 80% o
sola panel manu ac u ing and 60% o
wind u bine componen p oduc ion (IEA,
2022, 2023a). By 2028, China is p ojec ed
o accoun o nea ly 60% o global new
enewable ene gy capaci y (IEA, 2023c).
By inancing, cons uc ing and supplying
equipmen o o e seas enewable
ene gy p ojec s, China c ea es (i) expo
ma ke s o i s domes ically p io i ised
indus ies – such as NEVs and ba e ies,
and (ii) oppo uni ies o i s con ac o s
o mo e up global alue chains, compe ing
in highe - alue ma ke s o design and
consul ing – sec o s his o ically domina ed
by Eu opean i ms (Tanjangco e al., 2021).
S a e indus ial policy and domes ic
compe i ion ha e also allowed Chinese
companies o educe domes ic cos s
o key echnologies, such as sola PV,
and ou -compe e o he ma ke s (Zhu e
al., 2019). The scale o China’s clean ene gy
echnology sec o g ow h has also educed
p ices o key equipmen wo ldwide and
na owed he cos ba ie o g een ene gy
ansi ions in he Global Sou h (IEA, 2023a).
This c ea es a eedback loop o Chinese
expo s as de eloping and eme ging
economies in e es ed in de eloping
enewables will almos ce ainly sou ce
componen s om China.
1.2 Global o e iew o China’s
o e seas ene gy sec o
engagemen
Ha ing explo ed China’s mo i a ions o
o e seas ene gy sec o engagemen ,
we now u n o how his engagemen
mani es s in p ac ice. This sec ion
p esen s he dis inc cha ac e is ics
o China’s lending p ac ices, equi y
in es men s and cons uc ion ac i i ies in
ene gy sec o s, as well as i s ade lows
o clean ene gy echnology componen s.
Fo policymake s, unde s anding hese
pa e ns se es wo main pu poses.
Fi s , i highligh s he complexi ies o
mobilising inance o ene gy ansi ions
in EMDEs. While Chinese capi al
and expe ise ha e been signi ican
con ibu o s in hese ma ke s, he
cons ain s China aces a e no unique,
and simila challenges a e encoun e ed by
o he o eign in es o s in hese egions.
Second, i p o ides con ex o c a ing
e ec i e in e na ional pa ne ships and
isk mi iga ion s a egies ha accoun
o he e ol ing capabili ies and isk
p e e ences o Chinese ac o s. As China
con ols manu ac u ing and ade o
mos clean ene gy echnologies, he
esul ing geog aphic concen a ion lea es
he en i e supply chain ulne able o
dis up ions om policy shi s, co po a e
decisions, echnical ailu es o na u al
disas e s (IEA, 2023a).
15
1.2.1 Lending
China’s o icial annual o e seas ene gy
sec o lending peaked in 2016 and has
s eadily dec eased since (Figu e 2). The
scale o his inancing was subs an ial, wi h
o al ene gy lending eaching $225 billion
be ween 2010 and 2021.12 The China
Expo and C edi Insu ance Co po a ion
(Sinosu e) unde w o e jus o e a hi d
12 Unlike o he sec o s whe e he ela i e sha e o enminbi-denomina ed loans has inc eased,
Chinese ene gy lending emained p edominan ly dolla -denomina ed: 94% o Chinese ene gy
sec o loans we e dolla -denomina ed (2010–2021).
o all ene gy loans, and o e hal o
comme cial bank loans. This unding
was also highly concen a ed, wi h 60%
di ec ed o jus en ecipien coun ies:
Pakis an, Angola, B azil, Vie Nam,
Indonesia, Laos, Bangladesh, Sou h A ica,
A gen ina and Venezuela (see Figu e 3).
A ican economies ecei ed nea ly a hi d
($65 billion) o ene gy- ela ed inancing
du ing his pe iod.
Figu e 2 Annual Chinese o e seas ene gy lending o A ica and he es o he wo ld, 2010–
2021
Sou ce: Au ho s’ elabo a ions based on AidDa a (2023)
0
10
20
30
40
50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
$ billions (2021 cons an USD)
A ica O he egions
16
Figu e 3 Cumula i e Chinese o e seas ene gy lending, 2010–2021
Sou ce: Au ho s’ elabo a ions based on AidDa a (2023)
13 A p e e en ial (expo ) buye ’s c edi (PBC) is a USD- o EUR-denomina ed loan ha China
Eximbank issues o go e nmen ins i u ions o acili a e hei acquisi ion o goods and se ices
om a Chinese supplie . The bo owing e ms o hese loans a y, bu hey end o be o e ed
a ixed in e es a es ha a e ypically mo e gene ous han p e ailing ma ke ( loa ing) a es.
China Eximbank’s policy is o allow bo owe s o use PBC p oceeds o inance up o 85% o he
cos o a comme cial con ac wi h a Chinese supplie , while coun e pa unding is equi ed o
co e he emainde .
Deb inancing om s a e-owned
policy banks has been he dominan
model o Chinese ene gy sec o
lending, bu his is changing. The
Expo -Impo Bank o China (China
Eximbank) and he China De elopmen
Bank (CDB) p o ided o e wo- hi ds
o cumula i e ex e nal ene gy lending
o e his pe iod. Howe e , lending
om he policy banks has been on he
decline in bo h absolu e alues and as
a sha e o China’s o al ene gy lending
since 2017 (Figu e 4). In 2021, loans
om comme cial lende s, such as he
Indus ial and Comme cial Bank o
China (ICBC) and Bank o China, s ood
a $2 billion and ep esen ed 71% o
all ene gy lending, compa ed o $760
million om policy banks. This sugges s
ha while Chinese companies con inue
o de elop ene gy p ojec s o e seas
(see 1.2.2), he unding no longe comes
p ima ily om adi ional policy bank
lende s as inancing app oaches a e
shi ing owa ds comme cial lending
and p ojec inance. Addi ionally, he use
o p e e en ial (expo ) buye ’s c edi s
– which o e mo e a ou able e ms
han ma ke a es – has declined since
peaking in 2015, indica ing a educed
ole o concessional inance o o e seas
ene gy p ojec s.13
Lending olume (2021 cons an $ billions)
027
23
Ru al Elec i ica ion and Renewable Ene gy
Co po a ion (REREC) (Minis y o Ene gy and
Pe oleum, 2025). REREC was es ablished o
p o ide subsidised elec ici y in u al a eas
wi h an expanded manda e o p omo e g een
ene gy adop ion (REREC, n.d.). Among g id-
connec ed elec ici y cus ome s, he up ake
o elec ic cooking appliances emains low,
a jus 3% in 2023 (Minis y o Ene gy and
Pe oleum, 2025).
Wi h a baseload powe ed by geo he mal
ene gy, supplemen ed by wind and
sola , Kenya’s powe mix is al eady
domina ed by enewable ene gy. In 2023,
app oxima ely 90% o elec ici y gene a ion
came om RE sou ces: geo he mal (47%),
hyd opowe (21%), wind (16%), sola (4%)
and bio uels (2%) (Figu e 7). The e has been
a signi ican imp o emen in phasing ou
he mal gene a ion in he elec ici y mix since
2010. Howe e , he coun y’s o e all ene gy
mix emains domina ed by bio uels (61%),
ollowed by enewable ene gy (18%), as well as
oil (17%) and coal (3%) (IEA, 2024b). Limi ed
access o clean cooking d i es he eliance on
bio uels, while ossil uels a e widely used in
indus ial p ocesses and anspo .
Figu e 7 Elec ici y p oduc ion in Kenya by sou ce, 2010–2023
Sou ce: au ho s’ elabo a ions based on IEA (2024b)
The powe sec o accoun s o only
9% Kenya’s o e all ene gy demand and
equi es scaling up o mee g owing
demand (Minis y o Ene gy and Pe oleum,
2025). I s o e all e ec i e ins alled elec ici y
capaci y inc eased om 2,736 MW in 2019 o
3,112 MW (Kenya Na ional Bu eau o S a is ics,
2024).
Wi h he numbe o KPLC cus ome s g owing
by o e 3 million be ween mid-2018 and ea ly
2025 o each 10 million, he coun y’s peak
demand has also inc eased o each 2,304
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
GWh
Oil Hyd o Bio uels Wind Sola PV Geo he mal

24
MW (Minis y o Ene gy and Pe oleum,
2025). Elec i ica ion o cooking and shi
o EVs a e among he ac o s ha will
gene a e addi ional g id demand (Minis y
o Ene gy and Pe oleum, 2025). Kenya’s
powe demand a ies h oughou he day
and week, wi h peaks in he e enings and
on weekends.25 A e he e ening peaks,
he coun y o en implemen s cu ailmen ,
wi h excess baseload, gene a ed p ima ily
om geo he mal powe , en ing s eam
(Minis y o Ene gy and Pe oleum, 2025).
Kenya’s ansmission g id includes a
ange o high- ol age ansmission lines
and is connec ed o E hiopia, Uganda
and Tanzania. Unde he T ansmission
Mas e Plan 2024–2043, i s g id will
expand by app oxima ely 2,500 km by
2027 and a ound 9,000 km by 2041
(Minis y o Ene gy and Pe oleum, 2025).
In 2024, Kenya’s elec ici y impo s om
E hiopia and Uganda ose o mee peak
demand (Nzomo, 2024). Recen upg ades
o ansmission lines be ween Kenya and
Tanzania ha e enhanced connec i i y
be ween he wo coun ies (KETRACO,
2024). This is pa icula ly signi ican
as bo h na ions a e membe s o he
Eas e n A ica Powe Pool, whe e c oss-
bo de ansmission and ade a e se o
commence in Ma ch 2025 (ibid.).
As o 2021, Kenya accoun ed o jus
0.1% o global g eenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions, bu he coun y is highly
ulne able o clima e isks (IEA, 2024b;
Wo ld Bank, 2023a). Emissions om he
ene gy sec o ha e isen by 116% o e
he pas wo decades, wi h anspo
25 Sou ce: s akeholde consul a ion wi h ene gy sec o expe s.
con ibu ing he la ges sha e o emissions
(62%), ollowed by indus y (18%),
elec ici y and hea (7%), and esiden ial
sec o s (6%) (IEA, 2024b). Kenya’s
Na ionally De e mined Con ibu ion (NDC)
commi s he coun y o a 32% educ ion
in emissions compa ed o he business-
as-usual scena io by 2030, condi ional on
inancing, wi h adap a ion as a key p io i y
(Minis y o En i onmen and Fo es y,
2020). The coun y anks 145 h on he ND-
GAIN Index, unde sco ing i s ulne abili y
o clima e isks (Uni e si y o No e
Dame, 2025). Clima e- ela ed haza ds
like d ough s and loods a ec bo h he
economy and households h ough mul iple
channels (Wo ld Bank, 2023a).
2.1.2 O e iew o ene gy and
g een indus ialisa ion policy
Ene gy access is a c ucial pilla o
Kenya’s Vision 2030, he coun y’s
bluep in o long- e m economic
de elopmen . The plan aims o ans o m
Kenya in o ‘a newly indus ialising,
middle-income coun y p o iding a high
quali y li e o all ci izens’ in a ‘clean and
secu e en i onmen ’ (Go e nmen o he
Republic o Kenya, 2007). The go e nmen
is a ge ing uni e sal ene gy access and
100% enewable elec ici y by 2030
h ough a se ies o s a egies (Minis y o
Ene gy and Pe oleum, 2024).
Kenya aims o de elop a di e se ene gy
mix o suppo i s g owing economy
and expand elec i ica ion ac oss key
sec o s such as clean cooking, indus y
and anspo . The coun y’s d a Ene gy
25
Plan o 2025–2034 ou lines six s a egic
objec i es, including ea i ming Kenya’s
commi men o achie ing uni e sal
elec ici y access by 2030, p io i ising
enewable ene gy in di e si ying he
ene gy mix o cooking, and suppo ing
inno a ion h ough eme ging
echnologies and inancing mechanisms
(Minis y o Ene gy and Pe oleum, 2025).
When i comes o mode n enewables,
Kenya plans o scale-up geo he mal,
sola and wind powe . Wi h ins alled
geo he mal capaci y al eady eaching
940 MW, he go e nmen plans o in es
in i s u he de elopmen , including
he c ea ion o he Na ional Geo he mal
De elopmen S a egy. Wi h an ins alled
capaci y o 435 MW o wind and 212.5 MW
o sola , Kenya plans o scale up hese
echnologies while in es ing in g id
s abili y o manage hei in e mi ency.
Among o he clean ene gy sou ces,
hyd opowe is a p io i y. The coun y
cu en ly has an ins alled hyd o capaci y
o a ound 840 MW, much o which is
aging. Wi h app oxima ely 6,000 MW o
hyd o po en ial, including small hyd o,
i aims o ha ness hese esou ces while
managing hei en i onmen al and
social impac s (Minis y o Ene gy and
Pe oleum, 2025).
Kenya has a long- e m goal o
de eloping nuclea powe , iewing
i as a po en ial sou ce o baseload
elec ici y. Cons uc ion o i s i s
nuclea powe plan is expec ed by 2027,
wi h elec ici y gene a ion se o begin
by 2034 (Pay on, 2024). In 2019, Kenya’s
Nuclea Powe and Ene gy Agency signed
a con ac wi h China Na ional Nuclea
Co po a ion o de e mine he mos
sui able loca ion o his (Janes, 2024).
O he sou ces such as he mal powe
gene a ion will con inue o be pa o
he powe mix o help mee peak powe
demand.
The coun y is looking o localise
low-ca bon alue chains and educe
eliance on impo ed enewable
ene gy echnologies. The d a ene gy
policy emphasises he need o no only
es ablish e ec i e suppo mechanisms
o sola , wind, and geo he mal expansion
bu inc ease he ole o local con en
(Minis y o Ene gy and Pe oleum, 2025).
To his end, Kenya aims o p omo e local
manu ac u ing hubs. O he oppo uni ies
o localising alue chains include clean
cooking equipmen , R&D capaci y, as well
as s eng hening he c i ical mine als
alue chain. In he i s i e yea s o he
s a egy, quo as o locally manu ac u ed
ene gy componen s will be de eloped
(Minis y o Ene gy and Pe oleum, 2025).
Kenya aims o capi alise on i s
abundan enewable ene gy esou ces
o scale up g een hyd ogen p oduc ion
and published i s i s Hyd ogen
S a egy in 2023 (Minis y o Ene gy
and Pe oleum, 2023). Wi h po en ial
applica ions ac oss a ious sec o s,
including indus y, anspo , powe and
ag icul u e, he go e nmen plans o
adop a phased app oach o de eloping
he indus y o e en yea s. The use
o hyd ogen o ni ogen e ilise and
me hanol p oduc ion in ag icul u e is
o pa icula in e es , gi en he sec o ’s
signi ican ole in employmen and
con ibu ion o GDP, and he coun y’s
26
eliance on impo ed e ilise s, which
impac s i s balance o paymen s (Minis y
o Ene gy and Pe oleum, 2023). O e all,
he s a egy has ou objec i es: (1) imp o e
balance o paymen s, (2) enhance ood
secu i y and esilience, (3) p omo e g een
indus ialisa ion and deca bonisa ion
and (4) a ac in es men (Minis y o
Ene gy and Pe oleum, 2023). Se e al
p ojec s ha e al eady been announced.
Fo ins ance, Fo escue plans o de elop
a 300 MW capaci y g een ammonia and
e ilise acili y u ilising geo he mal
esou ces in Nai asha (G een Hyd ogen
O ganisa ion, n.d.).
2.2 T ade in clean ene gy
echnology
China is Kenya’s la ges impo ading
pa ne , wi h Kenya a ne impo e om
China. The ela ionship is cha ac e ised
by a subs an ial ade de ici o Kenya
– his eached $3.07 billion in 2023.
Kenya p ima ily impo s manu ac u ed
goods, machine y (including machine y
p edominan ly used in he cons uc ion
sec o ) and elec ical equipmen om
China, while i expo s mine al o es (chie ly
i anium, zi conium and manganese)
and ag icul u al p oduc s.26 This pa e n
ein o ces China’s ole as a supplie o
alue-added goods while posi ioning Kenya
p ima ily as a p o ide o aw ma e ials.
Kenya elies on impo s o scale i s
enewable ene gy capaci y and he
exis ing gene al egula o y amewo k
incen i ises he up ake o clean
ene gy. Fo example, ce ain i ems such
26 Da a as o 2023 om Obse a o y o Economic Complexi y, based on UN Com ade.
as windmills a e no subjec o impo
du ies, and wi h he Finance Ac 2021 he
go e nmen ein oduced VAT exemp ions
o specialised sola and wind ene gy
gene a ion equipmen , including PV
modules, cu en in e e s and deep cycle
ba e ies ha use o s o e sola powe
(IEA, 2016b; PwC Kenya, 2021). These
measu es demons a e a commi men
o educe ba ie s o enewable ene gy
echnology adop ion despi e he eliance
on impo s.
China domina es Kenya’s clean ene gy
echnology impo ma ke . In 2024,
Chinese expo s o Kenya included
$45.9 million wo h o assembled sola
panels, $39.3 million wo h o li hium-ion
ba e ies and $2.3 million wo h o elec ic
mo o ehicles (Figu e 8). Acco ding o
Wo ld In eg a ed T ade Solu ion (WITS)
da a, China is he la ges single sou ce
o impo s o all h ee clean ene gy
echnology p oduc s – in 2023, 96% o
Kenya’s PV panels, 81% o li hium-ion
ba e ies and 21% o elec ic ehicles came
om China. China su passed Japan as he
leading impo e o EVs in 2023. O he
signi ican EV expo e s o Kenya in he
same yea we e Sou h Ko ea (18%), Japan
(16%) and he Uni ed Kingdom (15%),
illus a ing a mo e di e si ied supplie base
in his sec o .
27
Figu e 8 China’s annual expo s o clean ene gy p oduc s o Kenya by ade alue, 2017–2024
Sou ce: au ho s’ elabo a ions using Obse a o y o Economic Complexi y and Embe based on Gene al
Adminis a ion o Cus oms o he People’s Republic o China27
27 The p oduc mapping ollows he Ha monised Sys em (HS) by he Wo ld Cus oms O ganisa ion.
The HS p oduc codes used a e 850231 (wind u bines); 85414020 and 85414300 (sola panels);
850760 (li hium-ion ba e ies); 870380 ( ully elec ic mo o ehicles).
2.3 Ene gy- ela ed in es men
and lending
2.3.1 Lending
China’s ene gy- ela ed lending o
Kenya has been domina ed by bila e al
policy-bank deb inancing o la ge
ansmission in as uc u e p ojec s.
Acco ding o AidDa a, be ween 2010
and 2021, Kenya ecei ed $2.35 billion
h ough 16 p ojec -based loans (Figu e
9). Eximbank p o ided o e 80% o
hese loans, and Chinese SOEs and
p i a e companies we e in ol ed in he
implemen a ion o all o he loans, ei he
as he s andalone implemen ing agency o
in a join en u e wi h Kenyan go e nmen
agencies o SOEs. Lending om Eximbank
has been concessional, wi h 2–3% in e es
a es whe e he bo owing e ms a e
disclosed. China’s ene gy- ela ed loans
peaked in 2017 wi h no new lending since.
$ millions
$ millions$ millions
$ millions
Sola panels Wind u bines
Li hium-ion ba e ies Elec ic ehicles (EVs)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
28
Figu e 9 Chinese ene gy- ela ed loans o Kenya by sub-sec o , 2010–2021
Sou ce: au ho s’ elabo a ions based on AidDa a (2023)
28 Exchange a e used o con e sion: 1 KES = 0.0088104 USD (31 Decembe 2022). Sou ce: Wise
Cu ency Con e e .
The Go e nmen o Kenya was he
di ec ecipien o he majo i y
o hese loans – 13 we e made
di ec ly o he go e nmen , and one
speci ically a ge ed he Na ional
T easu y. The Na ional T easu y loan
was unde w i en by he China Expo &
C edi Insu ance Co po a ion (Sinosu e).
The wo loans no di ec ed owa ds
he go e nmen – ecei ed by T iumph
Powe Gene a ing Company (a Kenyan
SPV) and China In e na ional Wa e and
Elec ical Co po a ion (a Chinese SOE),
ecei ed hi d-pa y insu ance om
he Mul ila e al In es men Gua an ee
Agency and a so e eign gua an ee,
espec i ely. This pa e n o di ec
lending o go e nmen is obse ed
ac oss China’s lending in o he sec o s.
2.3.2 Equi y in es men and
cons uc ion ac i i y
China’s o al FDI in Kenya is g owing.
In 2022, he leading o eign in es o s
by FDI s ock we e he Uni ed Kingdom
(21.9% o o al FDI), Mau i ius (11.8%), he
Ne he lands (11.5%), Sou h A ica (11.5%)
and India (8.3%). China’s FDI s ock in
ha yea s ood a 23.3 billion Kenyan
shillings ($189 million) – less han 2% o
Kenya’s o al FDI s ock (Kenya Na ional
Bu eau o S a is ics, 2023).28 Howe e ,
his ep esen ed an inc ease o 66%
om 2020 le els, which was signi ican ly
as e han he FDI s ock g ow h o o he
majo in es o s.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Numbe o loans
$ billions (2021 cons an USD)
Geo he mal Sola T ansmission & dis ibu ion O he To al loans

29
Figu e 10 Kenya’s FDI s ock by coun y o o igin, 2022
Sou ce: au ho s’ elabo a ions based on Kenya Na ional Bu eau o S a is ics’ 2023 Fo eign In es men
Su ey Repo
China is now an impo an
in es men pa ne in Kenya’s ene gy
in as uc u e. In ecen yea s, i has
inanced and cons uc ed se e al key
enewable ene gy p ojec s, such as:
• Funding and echnical suppo o
he Olka ia IV Geo he mal Field
P ojec . In 2010 China Eximbank
and he Go e nmen o Kenya signed
a $93 million concessional loan
ag eemen o he de elopmen
o a 140 MW geo he mal powe
plan in Nai asha, Naku u Coun y.
China’s G ea Wall D illing Company
implemen ed he p ojec in
collabo a ion wi h KenGen, Kenya’s
Minis y o Ene gy and Pe oleum,
and Kenya’s special pu pose ehicle
o geo he mal de elopmen , he
Geo he mal De elopmen Company.
• Funding, design and cons uc ion
o he Ga issa Sola Pa k. The 50
MW sola powe a m loca ed in
Ga issa, one o he la ges sola PV
s a ions in A ica, was designed and
buil by China Jiangxi Co po a ion o
In e na ional Economic and Technical
Co-ope a ion, in collabo a ion wi h
Kenya’s Ru al Ene gy Au ho i y and
Chinese sola company JinkoSola
Holding, which supplied he PV
modules. The p ojec was unded
by a $135 million concessional loan
om China Eximbank and has been
ope a ional since 2019. The Ru al
Elec i ica ion Au ho i y and China
Jiangxi epo ed ha 600 local people
we e employed in he cons uc ion
phase, while 50 Kenyan echnicians
ecei ed aining du ing ins alla ion
(China Daily, 2019).
0%
10%
-10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
UK
Ne he lands Mau i ius
India
Sou h A ica
China
US
Pe cen change
KSh billion
FDI s ock (2022) Pe cen age change (2020-2022)
30
• Funding and cons uc ion o he
O powe 22 Geo he mal Powe
Plan . In No embe 2024, Kaishan
G oup announced a $93 million
in es men in he 35 MW geo he mal
powe plan nea Naku u, which is
being cons uc ed by Powe China.
The plan is pa o he Menengai
Geo he mal Powe P ojec , which
consis s o h ee geo he mal powe
plan s buil and ope a ed by IPPs.
Kaishan G oup, which in 2023
acqui ed a 100% s ake in O powe
22, a Kenyan independen powe
p oduce , supplied he equipmen .
P esiden Ru o s a ed ha he
comple ion o he p ojec will ele a e
29 This es ima e likely ep esen s a lowe bound as mone a y alues a e no epo ed o all
ansac ions in he da abase.
Kenya o he i h la ges geo he mal
powe p oduce in he wo ld
(Xinhua, 2024).
Be ween 2010 and 2024, Chinese
companies we e in ol ed in he
in es men and cons uc ion o
44 ene gy p ojec s wo h $7.3
billion.29 The bulk o Chinese ac i i y in
Kenya’s ene gy sec o comp ises EPC
con ac s won by la ge Chinese SOEs
such as Powe China and China CAMC
Enginee ing Co L d o build ansmission
lines and subs a ions and geo he mal,
wind, biomass and hyd opowe and sola
powe plan s. The mone a y alue o
hese con ac s, whe e epo ed, anged
om $14.5 million o $407 million.
Figu e 11 Numbe o Chinese ene gy- ela ed p ojec s in Kenya, 2010–2024
No e: excludes loan ag eemen s. P ojec s a e ca ego ised as ‘coope a ion’ whe e he na u e o he
ansac ion is unclea bu is desc ibed as a collabo a i e p ojec . Sou ce: au ho s’ elabo a ions based
on Janes (2024)
0
2
4
6
8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Numbe o p ojec s
Con ac G een ield M&A Coope a ion
31
T ansmission and dis ibu ion
p ojec s, mos ly composed o
enginee ing con ac s won by
Chinese i ms, ep esen ed wo-
i hs o p ojec s o e his pe iod and
collec i ely eached $1.5 billion, o
21% o he alue o all ene gy p ojec s
(Figu e 12). Renewable powe gene a ion
p ojec s collec i ely accoun ed o
30 Be ween 2010 and 2023, Chinese cons uc ion o inancing o o he enewable sou ces such as
sola (2 p ojec s), wind (2 p ojec s) and hyd opowe (3 p ojec s) was less common.
o e $1.7 billion wo h o p ojec s, wi h
mos o hese ocused on geo he mal
de elopmen (10 p ojec s).30 The highes
alued ansac ion was Shanxi Fenxi
Mining G oup’s $3 billion acquisi ion o
wo coal blocks in he o me Eas e n
P o ince in 2011. Since 2020, he e
ha e been no new ossil uel ene gy
in es men s o cons uc ion con ac s.
Figu e 12 Composi ion o Chinese ene gy in es men s in Kenya by p ojec alue, 2010–
2024
No e: ‘Fossil uels’ includes a coal de elopmen and an oil e minal cons uc ion p ojec . ‘O he ’
includes one nuclea powe plan p ojec , one was e hea eco e y p ojec and one was e- o-ene gy
powe gene a ion p ojec . Pe cen ages based on p ojec s o which mone a y alues we e epo ed.
No p ojec alues we e eco ded o 40% o ansac ions.
Sou ce: au ho s’ elabo a ions based on Janes (2024)
10%
21%
46%
2%
6%
7%
9%
H
y
d
o
p
o
w
e
T
a
n
s
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
&
d
i
s
i
b
u
i
o
n
O
h
e
G
e
o
h
e
m
a
l
W
i
n
d
S
o
l
a
F
o
s
s
i
l
u
e
l
s
32
2.4 Impac assessmen : how
is China con ibu ing o
Kenya’s ene gy ansi ion?
China is an ac i e con ibu o o Kenya’s
ene gy ansi ion h ough ade, clean
ene gy echnology supply and p ojec
de elopmen . Chinese p esence in he
ene gy sec o has been mos isible in
e ms o echnology and equipmen
supply. Impo s o Chinese clean ene gy
echnology componen s such as ully
assembled sola panels, ba e ies and EVs
ha e been cos -compe i i e op ions o
mee local demand. Chinese SOEs ha e
been winning bids o build enewable
powe gene a ion plan s (wi h no ossil
uel ac i i y since 2020) as well as c ucial
elec ici y in as uc u e such as high-
ol age ansmission lines and subs a ions.
Chinese inancing has p o ided
essen ial capi al o Kenya’s ene gy
in as uc u e de elopmen , hough
wi h mixed economic impac s. High
ini ial capi al equi emen s o any ene gy
sec o p ojec a e he main challenge
wi h scaling enewable ene gy in Kenya.
P ojec s inanced by China Eximbank,
such as he Olka ia IV Geo he mal P ojec
and Ga issa Sola Pa k, ha e equen ly
subcon ac ed Chinese enginee ing
companies, limi ing he economic spillo e
e ec s o he local economy.
A he same ime, Chinese con ac o s
ha e demons a ed compe i i e
ad an ages ha Kenyan s akeholde s
alue. In cons uc ion p ojec s, Chinese
31 Sou ce: s akeholde consul a ion wi h MDB ene gy expe s.
32 Sou ce: s akeholde consul a ion wi h MDB and local elec ici y sec o expe s.
EPC i ms ha e also ended o ou pe o m
o he o eign con ac o s in e ms
o espec ing p ojec imelines and
add essing igh -o -way challenges ha
come up du ing p ojec implemen a ion.31
Chinese enginee ing companies ha e
es ablished ma ke dominance in Kenya’s
ene gy in as uc u e sec o h ough
agg essi e bidding s a egies – he e
ha e been examples o la ge ende s
only a ac ing Chinese bidde s. This
compe i i e app oach has eshaped he
con ac o landscape, wi h Chinese and
Indian i ms now domina ing bids in a
space whe e Eu opean and Japanese
companies once compe ed mo e
e ec i ely.32 In many cases, such as he
Menengai Geo he mal P ojec whe e
each IPP is esponsible o hei own
p ocu emen and con ac o selec ion,
s akeholde s say i is oo ea ly o ell i
he e is a quali y di e ence be ween
o eign con ac o s.
Kenya’s app oach o ene gy sec o
inancing is e ol ing, and Chinese
in es o s ha e no ye s epped up.
His o ically, he Go e nmen o Kenya
would di ec ly und he Kenya Elec ici y
Gene a ing Company (KenGen) wi h
de elopmen pa ne s p o iding
supplemen a y loans o co e unding
de ici s. Howe e , wi h Kenya’s inc easingly
limi ed iscal space, he go e nmen has
pi o ed owa d PPPs. Fo example, he
Nai obi Exp essway, ecen ly de eloped
unde a design-build- inance-ope a e-
ans e PPP model, was ully inanced by
he China Road and B idge Co po a ion,
39
ene gy co ido s and indus ial pa ks.
By 2030, Mozambique plans o es ablish
a leas one indus ial pa k as a model
o u u e expansion, wi h new pa ks and
co ido s o ming he co e o i s indus ial
de elopmen s a egy (Go e nmen o
Mozambique, 2023). Al eady a p oduce o
mine als such as na u al gas, gold, i anium
o es om hea y sands, and g aphi e,
Mozambique is now seeking o capi alise
on i s esou ce weal h by mo ing beyond
ex ac ion. The aim is o e ain g ea e
alue h ough domes ic p ocessing,
no only o i s own ese es bu also
o esou ces sou ced om landlocked
neighbou s such as Zambia and Zimbabwe
(ibid.). Howe e , as wi h o he a eas o i s
ene gy and indus ial s a egy, i emains
unclea whe he s a egic planning and
quan i a i e a ge s o a ac ing FDI in o
he sec o ha e been se .
Mozambique’s ETE es ima es
ha implemen a ion will equi e
app oxima ely $80 billion. In es men s
be o e 2030 will ocus on g id expansion
and hyd opowe , wi h pos -2030 e o s
shi ing owa d la ge-scale sola and wind
p ojec s (Go e nmen o Mozambique,
2023). To inance ansi ion, Mozambique
will de elop a inancing s a egy ha
le e ages di e en sou ces o unds. PPPs
a e se o play a key ole in unding la ge-
scale s a egic p ojec s, while a ge ed
public suppo will ocus on enabling
in as uc u e, easibili y s udies, and
isk mi iga ion ins umen s. Gi en iscal
cons ain s, spending on enabling p ojec s
a he han di ec ly in es ing in la ge-scale
de elopmen s will be p io i ised (ibid.).
41 Sou ce: s akeholde consul a ion wi h ene gy sec o ad iso (2).
Ins i u ional and inancial cons ain s
may impede p og ess owa d i s ene gy
ansi ion and g een indus ialisa ion
aspi a ions. F om an ins i u ional
pe spec i e, s akeholde s ha e no ed
a lack o coo dina ion in de eloping a
comp ehensi e s a egic ision. The
ETE published in 2023 is he key ene gy
sec o s a egy bu new s a egies may
be in de elopmen , leading o unce ain y
abou long- e m planning. S eng hening
ins i u ional capaci y is essen ial o b ing
new enewable ene gy capaci y o he
g id, manage he coun y’s LNG e enues,
and alloca e esou ces owa d enhanced
clima e adap a ion gi en he coun y’s high
ulne abili y o clima e isk. A agmen ed
ins i u ional landscape also c ea es
di icul ies in implemen ing ax and impo
du y exemp ions o enewable ene gy
equipmen unde he economic s imulus
package, which could help educe he cos
o impo ed echnology.
When i comes o inancial
sus ainabili y, Mozambique’s s a e-
owned ene gy company, EDM, which
o e sees he coun y’s elec i ica ion
policy, s uggles wi h cos eco e y and
imp o ing i s inancial and ope a ional
pe o mance. Elec ici y added o he
g id since 2015 sou ced by EDM om
i s own sou ces as well as HCB and IPPs
has been bo h mo e expensi e and mo e
ca bon in ensi e. Wi h HCB’s lowe -cos
elec ici y expo ed o Sou h A ica ia
SAPP, he go e nmen will need o decide
whe he o con inue expo ing i s capaci y
in o 2030s o edi ec he elec ici y o
powe domes ic indus ial de elopmen .41

40
3.2 T ade in clean ene gy
echnology
China is Mozambique’s second la ges
expo des ina ion (a e India),
accoun ing o o e 14% o all expo s,
alued a $1.2 billion, in 2023. The main
p oduc s pu chased by China include
na u al gas, coal, hea y sands, oilseeds
and ui s and g aphi e.42 In he same
yea , China was also he second la ges
sou ce o impo s (a e Sou h A ica),
wi h $1.4 billion, ocused on he supply o
ag icul u al ma e ials, i es, ac o s and
ca s o anspo ing goods, among o he s
(Bank o Mozambique, 2023). The ade
balance a ou s China.
Mozambique elies on impo s o
enewable ene gy equipmen and
componen s. The cos s o impo ing
hese p oduc s a e high and impo ed
componen s ela ed o enewable
ene gy p ojec s mos ly come om
China. Fo example, China is he main
sou ce o sola echnology, including he
equipmen needed o o -g id p ojec s
and la ge g id-connec ed plan s such
as he 19 MW Cuamba sola plan , he
coun y’s i s combined u ili y-scale sola
and ene gy s o age plan .43 In 2023, 62%
42 In 2023, Mozambique was he second-la ges expo e o g aphi e in he wo ld, a e China.
G aphi e is he main ma e ial used o he anodes o li hium-ion ba e ies (Zhao e al., 2024).
43 Sha ed du ing s akeholde consul a ion wi h de elopmen pa ne s.
44 Sou ce: WITS. China and Mozambique epo ma kedly di e en ade olume da a on enewable
ene gy equipmen p oduc s. In heo y, he olume o China’s expo s o sola panels should be
iden ical o he olume o Mozambique’s impo s o sola panels, bu he alues epo ed by
Mozambique a e lowe . This signals impe ec da a collec ion by one o bo h coun ies. Howe e ,
he ade pa e ns epo ed by Mozambique a e b oadly in line wi h hose depic ed in Figu e 14. Fo
consis ency wi h he es o he pape , and o i s mo e up- o-da e in o ma ion, we use he olumes
epo ed in China’s cus oms da a. We use da a epo ed by Mozambique ( o WITS) o assess he
ela i e sha e o impo s om China compa ed o o he ade pa ne s.
45 Da a sou ce: WITS.
o Mozambique’s assembled sola PV
panels came om China.44 This is despi e
highe impo du ies o Chinese impo s.
Acco ding o one analysis, he o al ax
bu den applied o he impo s o hese
goods can be as high as 36% (including
VAT and cus oms du ies); impo du ies
be ween SADC coun ies, and be ween
hese and he EU, a e 0% (ALER and
AMER, 2023). Tha he majo i y o
enewable p oduc s a e s ill sou ced om
China signals hei ela i e a o dabili y, a
end ha is no expec ed o change soon.
Gi en he ela i e nascency o u ili y-
scale wind p ojec s in Mozambique,
ade olumes o wind u bines a e
unsu p isingly low, wi h no clea
egional pa e n ac oss he yea s. Jus
o e hal (51%) o li hium-ion ba e ies
be ween 2017 and 2023 came om China,
while 31% we e impo ed om Sou h
A ica. Japan is he bigges expo e
o elec ic ehicles o Mozambique,
accoun ing o 53% o impo s o e he
same pe iod.45
41
Figu e 14 China’s annual expo s o clean ene gy p oduc s o Mozambique by ade alue,
2017–2024
Sou ce: au ho s’ elabo a ions using Obse a o y o Economic Complexi y and Embe based on Gene al
Adminis a ion o Cus oms o he People’s Republic o China.46
46 The p oduc mapping ollows he Ha monised Sys em (HS) by he Wo ld Cus oms O ganisa ion.
The HS p oduc codes used a e 850231 (wind u bines); 85414020 and 85414300 (sola panels);
850760 (li hium-ion ba e ies); 870380 ( ully elec ic mo o ehicles).
47 The o he lende s in his syndica e we e C edi Ag icole, Sumi omo Mi sui Banking Co po a ion,
Expo -Impo Bank o Ko ea, ABN Am o, BNP Pa ibas, HSBC, Ko ea De elopmen Bank, Na ixis,
Socie e Gene ale, S anda d Bank, UBI Banca and UniC edi .
3.3 Ene gy- ela ed in es men
and lending
3.3.1 Lending
China’s o icial ene gy- ela ed lending
o Mozambique has been a mix o
comme cial and concessional lending,
p ima ily o LNG p ojec s, which a e in
line wi h Mozambique’s plans o ans o m
he economy and ene gy expo s. Be ween
2014 and 2020, Chinese policy and
comme cial banks commi ed i e loans,
collec i ely wo h o e $1.7 billion.
The Ro uma Basin o he coas o Cabo
Delgado P o ince con ains one o he
con inen ’s la ges ese es o na u al
gas and i s de elopmen as a global LNG
hub is key o Mozambique’s economic
ans o ma ion ambi ions (A DB, 2019).
In 2017, h ee Chinese banks – he Bank o
China ($500 million), ICBC ($550 million)
and China Eximbank ($500 million) –
con ibu ed o a $4.66 billion in e na ional
syndica ed loan ag eemen o he Co al
Sou h Floa ing Lique ied Na u al Gas
P ojec , he i s loa ing na u al gas acili y
buil on he A ican con inen .47 La e ,
$ millions
$ millions$ millions
$ millions
Sola panels Wind u bines
Li hium-ion ba e ies Elec ic ehicles (EVs)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.01
0.012
0.014
0.016
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
42
in 2020, ICBC con ibu ed o ano he
$1.26 billion syndica ed loan o he
Ro uma Lique ied Na u al Gas P ojec .48
Due o i s ma ke unce ain y and
poli ical en i onmen , Mozambique
anks among he iskies coun ies
in he wo ld o do business (Wo ld
Bank, 2021). In all Chinese lending o LNG
p ojec s, c edi insu ance om Sinosu e
was used o mi iga e in es men isks.
3.3.2 Equi y in es men and
cons uc ion ac i i y
Al hough China is one o Mozambique’s
op 10 o eign in es o s, i lags behind
he leading o eign playe s. In 2023,
China con ibu ed jus 0.6% o ne FDI
lows in Mozambique, wi h in es men
ac i i y ocused on he ex ac i e and
manu ac u ing indus ies (Bank o
Mozambique, 2023). The main in es o s
we e Mau i ius, Sou h A ica and he
Ne he lands, join ly accoun ing o nea ly
85% o FDI in he coun y.
A he p ojec le el, be ween 2010
and 2024, Chinese companies we e
in ol ed in he in es men and
cons uc ion o 13 ene gy p ojec s
wo h $13.76 billion.49 China’s p esence
in Mozambique’s ene gy sec o is ocused
48 This p ojec is cu en a ec ed by he a med insu gency in Cabo Delgado. The o he (comme cial)
lende s in his syndica e we e MUFG, S anda d Cha e ed, Mizuho, Socie e Gene ale, SMBC, ABSA
and IDC.
49 This es ima e likely ep esen s a lowe bound as mone a y alues a e no epo ed o all named
ansac ions in he da abase.
50 Sou ce: s akeholde in e iews wi h ene gy sec o expe s.
51 The Ro uma Basin’s A ea 4 is owned by a conso ium o Mozambique’s s a e-owned pe oleum
company and o eign de elope s, wi h he ollowing sha es: Eni (25%), ExxonMobil (25%), China
Na ional Pe oleum Co po a ion (20%), Ko ea Gas Co po a ion (10%), Galp Ene gia (10%),
Emp esa Nacional de Hid oca bone os (10%) (Eni, 2017).
on EPC con ac s a he han IPPs ha
own o ope a e powe gene a ion plan s.
Ou o he 13 p ojec s eco ded o e his
pe iod, eigh we e enginee ing se ice
con ac s awa ded o Chinese companies
o he design and cons uc ion o
ansmission lines and subs a ions, gas
pipelines and anspo a ion (Figu e
15). Chinese SOEs such as China Ene gy
Enginee ing G oup and Powe China
ha e won EPC con ac s om EDM. In
gene al, Chinese companies end o bid
o la ge capi al p ojec ende s, such as
Wo ld Bank o A ican De elopmen Bank
cons uc ion p ojec s.50
The emaining p ojec s comp ised wo
g een ield p ojec s, wo M&As and one
coope a ion ag eemen o oil and gas
explo a ion and p oduc ion be ween he
China Na ional Pe oleum Co po a ion and
he Emp esa Nacional Hid oca bone os
de Mozambique in 2016. China’s Na ional
Pe oleum Co po a ion has a 20%
owne ship s ake in he Ro uma Basin’s
A ea 4 na u al gas de elopmen si e.51
43
Figu e 15 Numbe o Chinese ene gy- ela ed p ojec s in Mozambique, 2010–2024
No e: excludes loan ag eemen s. Sou ce: au ho s’ elabo a ions based on Janes (2024)
52 Wo ld Bank (2023) P i a e Pa icipa ion in In as uc u e da abase.
Be ween 2010 and 2014, Chinese
companies we e con ac ed o he
cons uc ion o se e al high- ol age
ansmission lines and subs a ions,
which a e a p io i y in es men a ea
o he go e nmen . The e is cu en ly
no connec ion be ween he h ee main
ansmission g ids in he coun y, and
in e connec ing he sou he n, cen al and
no he n elec ici y sys ems in o a single
in eg a ed sys em is a p io i y o ensu ing
uni e sal ene gy access (Go e nmen o
Mozambique, 2023). T ansmission ne wo k
imp o emen s a e also key o Mozambique’s
ambi ions o posi ion i sel as he ene gy
hub in he SAPP ma ke . Some Chinese
ansmission and dis ibu ion p ojec s ha e
also aimed o connec o indus ial si es –
o example, in 2022, Powe China signed
a con ac de elop a 104 km ansmission
line linking o he Nipepe g aphi e mine
de eloped by China’s DH Mining.
La ge u ili y-scale enewable ene gy
p ojec s in Mozambique a e s ill
ela i ely nascen , and Chinese
de elope s ha e no ye made
in es men s in o he coun y’s sola
PV o wind ene gy in as uc u e.
Eu opean companies – such as No wegian
Sca ec Sola (Mocuba Sola Powe S a ion)
o F ench Neoen (Me o o Sola Powe
S a ion) – ha e been mo e ac i e in his
a ea.52 In 2023, China’s Tsingshan G oup
signed a memo andum o coope a ion
wi h he go e nmen o Mozambique o
de elop he Mozambique G een Indus ial
Pa k in he coun y’s cen al So ala
p o ince. The $40 billion p ojec will be
he coun y’s la ges special economic
zone and i plans o de elop clean ene gy
powe sou ces such as sola and wind
ene gy and o es ablish a local new ene gy
ba e ies and sola pho o ol aic indus y
(See ao, 2023).
0
2
4
6
8
Oil & gas powe gene a ion T&D LNG pipelines and anspo a ion
Numbe o p ojec s
Con ac G een ield M&A Coope a ion
44
3.4 Impac assessmen : how
is China con ibu ing o
Mozambique’s ene gy
ansi ion?
China has a longs anding ela ionship
wi h Mozambique and has engaged in
a ious sec o s, bu i s pa icipa ion
in he ene gy sec o has ocused on
gas p ojec s and mos ly happens
h ough ade, p o iding clean ene gy
echnologies and EPC p ojec s. Like
Kenya, China’s p esence in Mozambique’s
ene gy sec o has been mos isible in
echnology and equipmen supply.53
Impo s o Chinese sola panels align
wi h Mozambique’s goal o expanding
o -g id elec ici y access. Howe e , high
cos s emain a ba ie , as ax exemp ion
measu es ha e no been implemen ed,
making i di icul o de elop sus ainable
business models o sola home
sys ems. Huawei is among he Chinese
companies ha seek ac i e pa icipa ion
in Mozambique’s clean ene gy ollou ,
ha ing pa icipa ed in annual con e ence
o he Associação Moçambicana de
Ene gias Reno á eis.54 Huawei p o ides
esiden ial, u ili y-scale, and mic o-
g id sola PV solu ions and has signed
s a egic coope a ion ag eemen s wi h
o he A ican coun ies, including Ghana
(Col ho pe, 2022).55
China’s o icial ene gy- ela ed lending
o Mozambique consis s o a mix o
53 Sou ce: s akeholde consul a ion wi h go e nmen ep esen a i e in ene gy sec o .
54 Sou ce: s akeholde consul a ion wi h ene gy sec o associa ion (1).
55 The company has supplied sola PV and ene gy s o age sys em solu ions o wha is epo edly
A ica’s la ges sola PV gene a ion p ojec wi h 1 GW o sola PV capaci y and 500 MWh o
ba e y s o age.
56 Sou ce: s akeholde consul a ion wi h ene gy sec o ad iso (1).
comme cial and concessional loans,
p ima ily a ge ing LNG de elopmen s,
in line wi h he ETE p io i y o de elop
gas as a ansi ion uel. Howe e ,
as Mozambique seeks o expand gas
p oduc ion, some s akeholde s ha e
emphasised he need o g ea e analysis
o he coun y’s exposu e o ansi ion
isks unde di e en ene gy ansi ion
scena ios.56 China is no he only coun y
inancing he sec o ; o ins ance,
To alEne gies’ p ojec mos ecen ly
secu ed unding om he US In e na ional
De elopmen Finance Co po a ion (DFC).
A ange o mul ina ional companies,
including Eni and ExxonMobil, a e in ol ed
in gas ield de elopmen s, no ably p ojec s
such as Ro uma LNG and Co al Sul FLNG.
The Na ional De elopmen S a egy
assumes ha , un il 2030, LNG will
suppo economic g ow h, bu in
he longe e m, g ow h and income
a e expec ed o come om o he
sec o s. The economic bene i s o LNG
in es men s o he go e nmen depend
on he in e na ional LNG ma ke , aising
conce ns abou he isk o s anded
asse s, as hese p ojec s p ima ily a ge
expo s a he han domes ic ene gy
supply. The Go e nmen o Mozambique
has a guably p io i ised he u gency
o es a ing s alled p ojec s. This was
unde sco ed by P esiden Daniel Chapo’s
ea ly mee ing wi h he To alEne gies
CEO in Janua y 2025, sho ly a e aking

45
o ice, o discuss he esump ion o LNG
and gas- o-powe p ojec s, which had
been delayed due o ongoing insecu i y
(He nandez and Roel , 2025). P ojec
inancing was la e app o ed by he U.S.
Expo -Impo Bank, which epo edly
e-au ho ised a $4.7 billion loan o
To alEne gies o p ojec de elopmen
(Johns on and Smy h, 2025). The issue
emains closely ied o go e nmen
legi imacy and powe s uc u es.
In e ms o inancing he sec o and
p o iding echnical assis ance, o he
in e na ional playe s a e aking a mo e
ac i e ole as Mozambique seeks o scale
up i s enewable ene gy, ansmission,
and gas in as uc u e. Eu opean dono s
om Belgium, No way and Sweden ha e
p o ided inancing, including g an s, while
MDBs such as he Wo ld Bank and he
A ican De elopmen Bank (A DB) a e
suppo ing he s eng hening o la ge-
scale g id in as uc u e and backbone
ansmission lines.57
Mos o he enewable capaci y in he
pipeline h ough 2030 is expec ed o
come om sola powe , wi h inancing
and implemen a ion led by Eu opean
inancie s and companies.58 Sola
and wind componen s o he ETE will
epo edly be inanced by GET. ans o m,
wi h a s a egy in ol ing go e nmen
57 Sou ce: s akeholde consul a ion wi h ene gy sec o associa ion; s akeholde consul a ion wi h
go e nmen ep esen a i e in ene gy sec o .
58 Sou ce: s akeholde consul a ion wi h ene gy sec o associa ion.
59 Sou ce: s akeholde consul a ion wi h ene gy sec o ad iso (2).
60 Sou ce: s akeholde consul a ion wi h de elopmen pa ne (3).
61 Sou ce s akeholde consul a ion wi h ene gy sec o associa ion.
62 Sou ce: s akeholde consul a ion wi h go e nmen ep esen a i e in ene gy sec o ; s akeholde
consul a ion wi h ene gy sec o associa ion.
ep esen a i es, p i a e sec o and dono s.
Thei goal is o add ess key ba ie s o
in es men , including es ablishing he igh
egula o y amewo k o PPPs, add essing
a i s, imp o ing p ocu emen p ocesses,
and e ining concession ag eemen s o
make he sec o mo e a ac i e o p i a e
in es o s.59 Howe e , inancing delays,
linked o he coun y’s isk p o ile, ha e
been a challenge, and secu ing he elease
o unds emains a key p io i y.60 Wi h a
new p esiden in o ice, i emains o be
seen which p ojec s will be p io i ised
unde he ETE.61
China has ye o make signi ican
in es men s in la ge-scale enewable
ene gy p ojec s in Mozambique,
wi h i s p ima y p esence so a
in EPC con ac s o ossil uel
and ansmission in as uc u e.
As Mozambique wo ks o expand i s
ene gy gene a ion and ansmission
in as uc u e o add ess in as uc u e
gaps, se e al s akeholde s no ed ha
Chinese companies ha e app oached he
coun y o explo e ‘ u nkey’ p ojec s in
he enewables sec o s, whe e hey would
p o ide labou , ma e ials and o e see
he p ocess. Howe e , hey a e ye o
pa icipa e as IPPs o engage in ende
p ocesses.62 As in o he coun ies ac oss
A ica and globally, Chinese companies
ha e been success ul in secu ing
46
cons uc ion con ac s o p ojec s
inanced by MDBs. A Chinese con ac o ,
o ins ance, was awa ded he con ac o
implemen he subs a ion and high- ol age
componen s o he Temane T ansmission
Line, a majo p ojec co- inanced by he
A DB, Wo ld Bank, Islamic De elopmen
Bank, he OPEC Fund and No way.63
While g een indus ialisa ion is
included in he ETE, Mozambique
appea s o be in he ea ly s ages o
planning i s implemen a ion.64 The
ex en o China’s con ibu ion Tsingshan
Pa k, once comple ed, also emains o be
seen. Mozambique’s ene gy und, FUNAE,
ope a es a sola panel assembly plan in
Mapu o P o ince, buil in 2013 wi h loan
inancing om he Indian EXIM Bank.
Howe e , i equi es ope a ional upda es,
and i s capaci y o supply a scale emains
unclea .65 China’s Tsingshan Pa k plans o
use clean ene gy sou ces such as sola
and wind and aims o es ablish a local
new ene gy ba e y and sola PV indus y.
This p esen s China wi h an oppo uni y
o con ibu e o he coun y’s g een
indus ialisa ion. The e is e idence ha
China has cons uc ed in as uc u e
o connec i s indus ial si es (including
mines) o powe g ids, gi en i s signi ican
mining expo s om Mozambique.
Howe e , he ex en , sys ema ic na u e,
and spillo e bene i s o his in es men
o Mozambique’s elec i ica ion emain
unclea . Fo example, while China
de eloped ansmission and dis ibu ion
63 Sou ce: s akeholde consul a ion wi h MDB ep esen a i e.
64 Sou ce: s akeholde consul a ion wi h de elopmen pa ne (2).
65 Sou ce: s akeholde consul a ion wi h go e nmen ep esen a i e in ene gy sec o ; s akeholde
consul a ion wi h ene gy sec o associa ion; s akeholde consul a ion wi h de elopmen pa ne
(3).
in as uc u e in Niassa P o ince, whe e
only 25% o he popula ion has access o
elec ici y, i is unce ain wha bene i s
his has p o ided o he local popula ion
and how sys ema ically his app oach has
been applied.
Mozambique sees an oppo uni y o
capi alise on i s mine al endowmen s
in he ene gy ansi ion and mo e up
he c i ical mining alue chain, bu he
imeline o i s aspi a ions – and how
China will con ibu e – emains unclea .
A lack o exis ing indus ial capaci y and
ele a ed coun y isk pose signi ican
challenges o a ac ing FDI. Poli ical
un es has dis up ed p oduc ion a he
exis ing GK Ancuabe g aphi e mine since
2023, while de elopmen a he Balama
mine, which secu ed DFC inancing in
Sep embe 2024, also aced local un es
(Club o Mozambique, 2024). Whe he
China, al eady a majo mine als expo e
om he coun y wi h p esence in i s
mine als sec o , will in es in p ocessing
capaci y in he sec o emains unce ain.
A he ecen FOCAC summi , China
signalled i s in e es in expanding
coope a ion in in as uc u e, ene gy
and mine als ‘ o boos Mozambique’s
indus ialisa ion and economic
di e si ica ion’ (MFA o he PRC, 2024b).
The employmen impac o
Chinese ene gy in es men s and
cons uc ion ac i i y in Mozambique
emains unce ain. Simila o Kenya,
47
unemploymen is a signi ican challenge
and a key p io i y o he coun y’s
economic de elopmen . Limi ed e idence
is a ailable on he ex en o skills ans e
om expe enginee s wo king on Chinese
EPC p ojec s, as well as hei impac
on local alue addi ion. S akeholde s
sugges ed ha Chinese p ojec s a e
pe cei ed in-coun y as employing local
wo ke s p ima ily in low-paid, unskilled
posi ions. Howe e , he e is limi ed
e idence on how his applies speci ically o
he ene gy sec o , as China has had g ea e
isibili y in o he indus ies.66
The ene gy sec o is a ela i ely
ecen a ea o engagemen o China
in Mozambique, and pe cep ions
o China’s in ol emen a e o en
conside ed wi hin he b oade con ex
o i s o e all engagemen in he
coun y. China’s app oach in he sec o
appea s o mi o i s engagemen in o he
coun ies, whe e i does no pa icipa e
in dono coo dina ion mechanisms wi h
go e nmen agencies, such as he ene gy
sec o wo king g oup.67 Indeed, as poin ed
ou by one o he s akeholde s, China is
pe cei ed as a business pa ne a he
han a de elopmen one.68 Rega ding isks
and oppo uni ies, conce ns ha e been
aised abou he anspa ency o China’s
in ol emen in in as uc u e p ojec s,
pa icula ly in he con ex o weake
ins i u ions.69 Howe e , e idence o China’s
66 Sou ce: s akeholde consul a ion wi h de elopmen pa ne (1).
67 Sou ce: s akeholde consul a ion wi h de elopmen pa ne (2); s akeholde consul a ion wi h
MDB ep esen a i e.
68 Sou ce: s akeholde consul a ion wi h de elopmen pa ne (2).
69 Sou ce: s akeholde consul a ion wi h de elopmen pa ne (1).
impac wi h ega d o ule o law and
go e nmen e ec i eness in Mozambique’s
ene gy sec o emains limi ed.
48
4 China’s ene gy p ojec s
and clean ene gy
echnology ade in Sou h
A ica
Ha ing explo ed China’s expanding
clean ene gy oo p in wo ldwide,
including in Kenya and Mozambique,
his sec ion now looks a Sou h A ica’s
ene gy ansi ion needs and examines how
– i a all – China is mee ing hese h ough
ade, lending and in es men lows. I
includes analysis o he implica ions o
hese changes o Sou h A ica’s low-
ca bon ansi ion plans and domes ic
ene gy sec o , as well as o he sec o s
o he economy. In con as o Kenya
and Mozambique, Sou h A ica bene i s
om ma u e capi al ma ke s and a highly
de eloped banking sec o , which acili a es
mobilisa ion o clean ene gy capi al
h ough a ange o ins umen s.
Sou h A ica is an uppe -middle-
income economy wi h a popula ion
o jus o e 60 million, a hi d o
whom a e aged 18 o 34 yea s old.
Pos -pandemic economic eco e y has
been cons ained by supply-side ac o s
including in as uc u e bo lenecks,
low p oduc i i y and a weak business
en i onmen . The coun y has high
le els o po e y, wi h a ound 63% li ing
below uppe middle-income h eshold.
Unemploymen emains a p essing
socioeconomic issue, wi h jus o e a hi d
o Sou h A icans ou o wo k (Wo ld
Bank, 2024a). The young a e pa icula ly
a ec ed, wi h o e 60% unable o ind
employmen , la gely due o a lack o skills.
The go e nmen ’s low-ca bon ansi ion
plan aims o ackle bo h unemploymen
and po e y (The P esidency o he
Republic o Sou h A ica, 2022).
Sou h A ica’s poli ical and economic
ela ionship wi h China has e ol ed
signi ican ly since he wo coun ies
i s es ablished ies in he la e 1990s.
Ene gy secu i y is c i ical o add essing
Sou h A ica’s socioeconomic challenges
and uelling economic g ow h and
compe i i eness in manu ac u ing and
o he sec o s. As Sou h A ica seeks
o g ow i s enewable ene gy po olio
and phase ou coal, enhance g id and
ansmission in as uc u e, and build
ou low-ca bon supply chains, he e a e
signi ican oppo uni ies o China and
o he s akeholde s o suppo i s na ional
de elopmen and ene gy ansi ion.
4.1 O e iew o ene gy sec o
and g een indus ialisa ion
ambi ion
4.1.1 O e iew o he ene gy
sec o
Sou h A ica has made majo gains
in imp o ing elec ici y access,
55
nei he Eskom-con ac ed no p i a ely
con ac ed powe p ojec s in he
coun y.80 Mo eo e , he majo i y o deb
inancing comes om local, Sou h A ican
banks.
Recen ly, howe e , Chinese EPC i ms
ha e gained an inc easingly la ge
ma ke sha e in he cons uc ion
o (clean) ene gy sec o p ojec s,
pa icula ly sola . Be ween 2010 and
2024, Chinese companies we e awa ded
con ac s o build 13 p ojec s wo h
$1.07 billion.81 Ele en o hese ha e
been awa ded since 2022, and 69% o
all con ac s a e o sola powe plan
cons uc ion o sola panel ins alla ion.
Beyond EPC con ac s, Chinese i ms
domina e he supply chain o sola
panels and in e e s. Majo ecen
p ojec s include:
• Cons uc ion o he Mooi Plaa s
g ound pho o ol aic powe plan .
The 283 MW p ojec in he No he n
Cape P o ince, announced in 2024, is
a pa ne ship be ween T ina Sola (a
Chinese sola PV manu ac u e ) and
wo cons uc ion and enginee ing
companies – China Gezhouba G oup
and China In e na ional Ene gy G oup.
• Cons uc ion o he Reds one
Concen a ed Sola The mal
P ojec . In 2021, SEPCOIII Elec ic
Powe Cons uc ion Co po a ion,
a Powe China subsidia y, signed a
80 Sou h A ica’s P i a e Powe P ojec s Dashboa d main ained by he Powe Fu u es Lab a he
Uni e si y o Cape Town (h ps://powe u u eslab.co.za/sa-ipp-da a).
81 This es ima e likely ep esen s a lowe bound as mone a y alues a e no epo ed o all
ansac ions in he da abase.
$704 million deal wi h ACWA Powe
o de elop a 100 MW concen a ed
sola powe plan in he No he n
Cape P o ince. The p ojec was
connec ed o he g id in 2024, and
c ea ed 2,500 jobs, o which 650 we e
illed by local communi y membe s
(FOCAC, 2024).
• Cons uc ion o he De Aa
Cen al Sola Powe Plan . In 2024,
Powe China signed an ag eemen wi h
Sola A ica Ene gy, a Sou h A ican PV
de elope , o a 342 MW plan which
will supply powe o da a cen es and
indus ial cus ome s. The plan will
be he coun y’s la ges single sola
powe plan by ins alled capaci y.
O e his pe iod, Chinese companies
ha e also been in ol ed in he
cons uc ion o ba e y ene gy s o age
sys ems and pa ne ships o localise
sola module p oduc ion. Fo example,
in 2022, Pinggao G oup, a subsidia y o
S a e G id Co po a ion o China, won a
con ac o de elop an 80 MW s o age
acili y in he Wes e n Cape. In he same
yea , Chinese Talesun Sola pa ne ed
wi h ARTsola , Sou h A ica’s only locally
owned sola panel manu ac u e , o
de elop a domes ic p oduc ion acili y o
la ge- o ma PV modules. ARTsola had
p e iously also signed a manu ac u ing
ag eemen wi h BYD, ano he Chinese
manu ac u e o enewable ene gy and
ba e y echnology, in 2014. Howe e , a

56
he ime o w i ing, sola panel p oduc ion
in Sou h A ica is solely ocused on
assembly using sola cells ypically
impo ed om China.82
4.4 Impac assessmen : how is
China con ibu ing o Sou h
A ica’s ene gy ansi ion?
China’s con ibu ion o Sou h A ica’s
ene gy ansi ion is cen ed on i s ole
as a majo ade pa ne and p ima y
sou ce o clean ene gy echnology
impo s. Sou h A ica is he la ges
expo ma ke o Chinese sola panels,
and Chinese supplie s domina e domes ic
sola PV, li hium-ion ba e y, wind u bine
and EV impo s. Chinese clean ene gy
echnology manu ac u e s ha e been
in ol ed in pa ne ships o local sola
panel assembly, which hey ha e no done
in o he coun ies in he egion.
While Sou h A ica is he main
des ina ion o Chinese FDI in A ica,
Chinese inancie s, SOEs and p i a e
companies ha e played a limi ed ole
as equi y in es o s wi h owne ship
s akes in clean ene gy p ojec s o powe
sec o p ojec s gene ally. Chinese inancial
ins i u ions ha e also played a limi ed ole
in deb -based p ojec inance, which is
mos ly p o ided by local Sou h A ican
banks. The e has been no new o icial
Chinese bila e al ene gy sec o lending
since 2018, so Chinese inancial ins i u ions
ha e no con ibu ed o b idging he
82 Sou ce: s akeholde in e iew wi h Sou h A ican indus y de elopmen expe .
83 The EPC landscape o ene gy p ojec s was his o ically domina ed by a mix o Eu opean i ms.
Sou ce: s akeholde in e iew wi h Sou h A ican ene gy sec o expe .
84 Sou ce: s akeholde in e iew wi h Sou h A ican ene gy sec o expe .
coun y’s ZAR 647 billion elec ici y sec o
in as uc u e in es men need be ween
2023 and 2027, h ough bila e al channels
(The P esidency o he Republic o Sou h
A ica, 2022). Ea lie lending om CDB
was di ec ed owa ds inancing la ge-scale
coal powe p ojec s in Mpumalanga and
Limpopo p o inces.
Chinese EPC i ms ha e g adually
es ablished c edibili y in Sou h A ica’s
ene gy ma ke as p ojec s ha e
bene i ed om educed cos s. Despi e
ini ial scep icism om local banks, which
a e ypically he inancie s o such p ojec s
and ha e s ic quali y equi emen s,
he e has been g owing in ol emen o
Chinese con ac o s in he de elopmen
o clean ene gy p ojec s since 2022. This
end e lec s hei abili y o unde p ice
mos o hei o he o eign coun e pa s,
o bo h enginee ing, p ocu emen and
cons uc ion, bu also ope a ions and
main enance o ins alla ions.83 As he
Sou h A ican ene gy ma ke has become
inc easingly p ice-compe i i e, hese
i ms ha e success ully demons a ed
hey can mee s anda ds while o e ing
mo e compe i i e p icing han p e iously
a ou ed and mo e es ablished Wes e n
companies.84
Some o he cons ain s o Chinese
in ol emen owa ds Sou h A ica’s
ene gy ansi ion a e inhe en o he
coun y’s ope a ional en i onmen .
Fo example, he e is limi ed e idence
57
o Chinese engagemen in ea ly-s age
capaci y building and p ojec p epa a ion,
bu his lack o p ojec eadiness suppo
and ea ly-s age unding is common in
Sou h A ica, which exace ba es he
limi ed pipeline o bankable clean ene gy
p ojec s (de A agão Fe nandes e al.,
2023).85 Sou h A ica’s his o ic eliance on
coal poses challenges o he social and
economic impac s o phasing ou coal. The
go e nmen ’s jus ansi ion commi men s
will di ec ly and indi ec ly impac jobs in
he ene gy and au omo i e sec o s and
will equi e a skilled wo k o ce o he
deploymen and main enance o clean
ene gy p ojec s. A he momen , he e a e
se e al obs acles o his, including limi ed
domes ic e-skilling e o s and he spa ial
misma ch be ween ‘g een’ jobs and he
coal ield egions whe e coal wo ke s li e.
While Chinese impo s ha e acili a ed
apid enewable ene gy deploymen ,
he hea y eliance on impo ed
componen s poses a po en ial
cons ain on he de elopmen o
a local clean ene gy manu ac u ing
indus y. Sou h A ica’s ambi ion
o inc ease local con en and alue
addi ion in sec o s such as sola panel
manu ac u ing and EVs aces challenges
om he cos -compe i i eness o Chinese
impo s and is a isk o emaining limi ed
o assembly using impo ed componen s.
85 This iew was also sha ed du ing a s akeholde consul a ion wi h a Sou h A ican indus y
de elopmen expe .
86 Au ho s’ calcula ions based on he Sou h A ica P i a e Powe P ojec s Dashboa d o he Powe
Fu u es Lab. Includes powe p ojec s ha eached inancial close, a e in cons uc ion o ope a ion
and abo e 5 MW o gene a ion capaci y. These a e a combina ion o sola , wind and ba e y ene gy
s o age p ojec s.
87 The US commi men o Sou h A ica’s JETP has included $56 million in g an s and $1 billion in
comme cial in es men s om he DFC, which combined ep esen less han 10% o he o al JETP
pledge.
Local s akeholde s a gued ha pa o he
eason why Chinese equi y in es o s a e
no pa icula ly ac i e is in Sou h A ica is
because hey iew selling hei p oduc s
di ec ly as mo e p o i able han shi ing
ope a ions o owne ship s akes ab oad. In
u n, Sou h A ican manu ac u e s ind i
challenging o access he Chinese ma ke .
T ade lows wi h he UK and EU a e much
mo e balanced.
Sou h A ica has a di e se se o
pa ne ships o i s ene gy ansi ion
goals and, o da e, IPG membe s ha e
domina ed equi y in es men s and
lending. Fo example, be ween 2022 and
2024 jus h ee Eu opean companies –
Engie, Sca ec Sola and EDF, held 57% o
equi y sha es o la ge Eskom-con ac ed
powe p ojec s.86 The IPG membe s ha e
pledged he majo i y o ene gy ansi ion
inancing, hough he US’s ecen exi om
he JETP lea es a inancing gap which will
ha e o be compensa ed by al e na i e
sou ces (Chime, 2025).87
58
5 Looking o wa d
88 This s udy had limi ed scope o deep di e in o he ESG o isk go e nance o indi idual Chinese
p ojec s. China is aiming o aise s anda ds in ene gy in as uc u e p ojec s, and i will be impo an
o wa ch whe he his ambi ion ma e ialises on he g ound.
The expansion o Chinese inancial
ins i u ions, SOEs and p i a e
companies in o o e seas ene gy sec o s
and g een alue chains has been d i en
by clea policy signals om Beijing and
comme cial d i e s bo h domes ically
and ab oad.
Fi s , wi h domes ic enewable ene gy
ma ke s app oaching sa u a ion, China’s
clean ene gy indus ies a e seeking
in e na ional ma ke s o expo hei
echnologies and se ices.
Second, Chinese companies a e capi alising
on business oppo uni ies o cons uc ion,
equipmen and enginee ing expe ise in
unde de eloped powe sec o s ab oad,
o en suppo ed by Chinese inancial
ins i u ions. Chinese enginee ing i ms ha e
also demons a ed hei compe i i eness
by pa icipa ing as con ac o s in new
ma ke s, as e idenced by hei pa icipa ion
in compe i i e p ojec ende s.
Thi d, his analysis has ound examples o
Chinese companies building ansmission
in as uc u e o suppo adjacen sec o s
whe e hey ha e s akes, such as g aphi e
mining in Mozambique, bu mo e e idence
is needed o unde s and hese linkages
and wha hey imply o hos coun ies.
Di e en Chinese ac o s a y in hei
s a egies and isk ole ance, which a e
shaped by he in es men clima e and
go e nance s uc u es o he coun ies in
which hey ope a e. Fo example, Kenya
has a ac ed a wide di e si y o Chinese
ene gy- ela ed in es men and cons uc ion
ac i i y han Mozambique, due o a
combina ion o he in es men clima e and
policy ambi ion. Mo eo e , unlike in sec o s
such as elecommunica ions which ha e
expe ienced a su ge in Chinese M&A and
g een ield ac i i y, he e has been ela i ely
li le in ol emen om equi y in es o s
in ene gy- ela ed ac i i y in he coun ies
analysed. To da e, Chinese companies ha e
p ima ily ocused on secu ing cons uc ion
con ac s and expo ing clean ene gy
echnologies. Mo e esea ch is needed o
unde s and China’s e ol ing s a egy o
de- isking i s o e seas engagemen in clean
ene gy p ojec s.
How is China’s o e o EMDEs e ol ing?
Cu en deb bu dens in mos EMDEs
mean ha bo owing is no longe a iable
op ion o he deli e y o ene gy and
clean ene gy echnology manu ac u ing
p ojec s, and go e nmen s a e explo ing
al e na i e inancing mechanisms based
on PPPs. Chinese companies ha e had
limi ed engagemen wi h hese models
o ene gy p ojec s, and i is unclea
whe he China would be willing o inc ease
equi y s akes o shi clean ene gy
manu ac u ing o e seas.88 Lending da a
h ough 2021 indica es ha Chinese
59
c edi o s a e pi o ing om la ge-scale
in as uc u e loans owa d a ge ed
comme cial in es men s and he size o
u u e indi idual deals will likely con inue
o decline. Domes ically, s ong policy
signals o p io i ise enewable ene gy
and low-ca bon alue chain expansion
o o e seas ma ke s and medium- e m
de elopmen plans o NEVs sugges ha
China will emain an impo an supplie
o clean ene gy impo s in EMDEs.
China’s engagemen in clean ene gy in
A ica will p obably emain s ong gi en
he momen um o ini ia i es like he
A ica G een Indus ialisa ion Ini ia i e
on he con inen and i s own diploma ic
ambi ions wi hin FOCAC. I may also
p io i ise engagemen wi h coun ies like
Kenya and Sou h A ica ha play signi ican
oles in he A ican Union and shape ade
policy on he con inen .
Wha a e he implica ions o he
al e na i e s a egies pu sued by he
G7? To compe e e ec i ely h ough he
EU’s Global Ga eway o he Pa ne ship
o Global In as uc u e and In es men ,
Wes e n policymake s need o unde s and
he BRI’s e ol ing scale, na u e, and
e ms – pa icula ly ollowing China’s de-
isking e o s. This also equi es a g ea e
unde s anding o how a ious Chinese
companies and inancie s wo k oge he
ac oss sec o s o c ea e ecosys ems (e.g.
powe -mining-logis ics pa ne ships).
Fo mos coun ies, i is no ealis ic o
compe e e ec i ely ac oss all pa s o
he clean ene gy echnology supply chain,
89 Fo example, in Decembe 2024 he DFC pledged $553 million o upg ade he Lobi o A lan ic
Railway in Angola as pa o a commi men o bo h secu e US s a egic in e es s in mine als supply
chains and build ou he low-ca bon alue chain in he egion (DFC, 2024).
and ca e ul conside a ion o whe e o
specialise domes ically and whe e i migh
be be e o es ablish pa ne ships o
make di ec in es men s ab oad, should
in o m conside a ions o coun ies’
indus ial s a egies (IEA, 2023a).89
Ou side o China, s akeholde s om o he
coun ies can also signi ican ly con ibu e
o clean powe sec o de elopmen and
elec i ica ion, bu o e all success emains
dependen on A ican coun ies.
Looking ahead, China’s e ol ing
esponse o global dynamics will
be impo an o wa ch on se e al
on s. Fi s , geopoli ical unce ain y
in ad anced economies ha a e key
inancie s o ene gy ansi ions will in o m
he esponses o China and EMDEs. Fo
example, gi en ecen announcemen s
ha he US is pulling back on clean ene gy
inancing in A ica, whe he China s eps
in o ill he ene gy ansi ion gap will
depend on he s eng h o i s poli ical ies
a he han i s exis ing (limi ed) equi y
s akes in clean ene gy on he con inen
(Au h, 2025; Chime, 2025). Howe e ,
policy inconsis ency om he US and
he new push on ossil uel de elopmen
h ea ens o lock-in emissions and e e se
p og ess on policy e o s o phase ou
coal. Addi ionally, he localisa ion and
egionalisa ion agenda o g een alue
chains in EMDEs ep esen s a challenge
o China’s ambi ions o con inue
expanding i s each in e ms o clean
ene gy echnology expo s. While A ican
policies a e unlikely o be as p o ec ionis
60
as hose obse ed in he US and Eu ope
(e.g. imposi ion o a i s on Chinese
goods), he g owing use o local con en
equi emen s o inc ease domes ic alue
addi ion will equi e Beijing o e hink i s
engagemen modali ies. In he mids o
geopoli ical unce ain y, policymake s
in EMDEs will also need o hink abou
how o app oach China s a egically,
which begins wi h an unde s anding o
China’s domes ic a ionale o ou wa d
engagemen and p io i y sec o s. Las ly,
Eu ope’s esponse o P esiden Donald
T ump’s A ican agenda will be impo an
o wa ch gi en i is mo e closely aligned
wi h China on low-ca bon g ow h.

61
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