Examining the critical success factors of climate-inclusive financing for durable solutions in conflict-affected Baidoa city, Somalia

Nor, Mohamed Ibrahim; Moge, Abdulkadir Mohamed Article Examining the critical success factors of climate-inclusive financing for durable solutions in conflict-affected Baidoa city, Somalia Cogent Business & Management Provided in Cooperation with: Taylor & Francis Group Suggested Citation: Nor, Mohamed Ibrahim; Moge, Abdulkadir Mohamed (2024) : Examining the critical success factors of climate-inclusive financing for durable solutions in conflict-affected Baidoa city, Somalia, Cogent Business & Management, ISSN 2331-1975, Taylor & Francis, Abingdon, Vol. 11, Iss. 1, pp. 1-26, https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2024.2398714 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/326544 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. 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If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Cogent Business & Management ISSN: 2331-1975 (Online) Journal homepage: www.tandfonline.com/journals/oabm20 Examining the critical success factors of climateinclusive financing for durable solutions in conflict-affected Baidoa city, Somalia Mohamed Ibrahim Nor & Abdulkadir Mohamed Moge To cite this article: Mohamed Ibrahim Nor & Abdulkadir Mohamed Moge (2024) Examining the critical success factors of climate-inclusive financing for durable solutions in conflictaffected Baidoa city, Somalia, Cogent Business & Management, 11:1, 2398714, DOI: 10.1080/23311975.2024.2398714 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2024.2398714 © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group Published online: 04 Sep 2024. Submit your article to this journal Article views: 960 View related articles View Crossmark data Citing articles: 2 View citing articles Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=oabm20 Banking & Finance | Review aRticle Cogent Business & ManageMent 2024, VoL. 11, no. 1, 2398714 Examining the critical success factors of climate-inclusive financing for durable solutions in conflict-affected Baidoa city, Somalia Mohamed ibrahim nora and abdulkadir Mohamed Mogeb aFaculty of Management sciences, siMaD university, Mogadishu, somalia; binstitute of africa Prosperity, Baidoa, somalia ABSTRACT this study explores the critical factors of climate-inclusive financing for durable solutions for forcibly displaced persons (DSFS) in Baidoa, Somalia, focusing on the interplay between financial autonomy, governance, and spatial dynamics. Utilizing multiple regression analysis, the research integrates various predictors into a cohesive model, based on survey data from 66 experts in city governance, financial autonomy, and spatial factors. the study finds that limited financial independence (Fica) hinders DSFS success, while proactive city-level interventions positively influence outcomes. interaction effects show that Fica combined with other factors can enhance intervention success. the spatial distribution of forcibly displaced persons (FDPs) negatively impacts policy implementation. enhancing city authorities’ financial autonomy could improve DSFS success. Policymakers should target strategic interventions that address FDP needs, consider urban spatial challenges, and incorporate climate-inclusive financing models. this study offers novel insights into the roles of financial autonomy and spatial dynamics in DSFS, contributing to urban planning and governance in fragile contexts. the research adds to the literature on urban displacement, governance, and climate finance, highlighting the key factors influencing DSFS. Introduction Somalia, a nation that has endured decades of conflict and instability, is at a critical juncture in the pursuit of durable solutions for peace and development (nor & Masron, 2018, 2019). the presence of conflict, violence, insecurity, and significant natural disasters in Somalia has resulted in a population of over 2.9 million internally displaced persons (iDPs). consequently, addressing the various challenges associated with displacement is of utmost importance in order to identify sustainable solutions to prolonged displacement and afford millions of displaced individuals the opportunity to achieve self-sufficiency and maintain their dignity (Mumin et al., 2022). according to a study conducted by warsame et al. (2021), Somalia has a significant susceptibility to climatic shocks. the recurring droughts of 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 had a detrimental impact on the population residing in the Southwest State of Somalia, resulting in the displacement of many communities from rural areas to urban and semi-urban settings. Owing to consecutive episodes of inadequate and unsuccessful precipitation in the area, communities engaged in pastoral and agro-pastoral activities have been compelled to abandon their original habitats and migrate to urban centers in pursuit of vital amenities (Osman, 2021). Furthermore, displaced individuals are compelled to stay inside urban centers that offer a somewhat higher level of protection. this is mostly because of the persistent presence of insecurity, threats, and pressure exerted by non-state-armed players. according to Baidoa city Mayor (watiin, 2020), the substantial increase in the number of forcibly displaced persons (FDPs) in Baidoa in recent years has played a key role in the expansion of urban areas. Mayor asserted that the expansion of the built-up area has been accompanied by a significant increase © 2024 the author(s). Published by informa uK Limited, trading as taylor & Francis group CONTACT Mohamed ibrahim nor Faculty of Management sciences, siMaD university, Mogadishu 252, somalia https://doi.org/10.1080/23311975.2024.2398714 this is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. the terms on which this article has been published allow the posting of the accepted Manuscript in a repository by the author(s) or with their consent. ARTICLE HISTORY Received 12 February 2024 Revised 22 august 2024 accepted 26 august 2024 KEYWORDS Forcibly displaced persons; financial independence; city authority; urban planning; spatial distribution SUBJECTS Finance; Political economy; environmental economics 2 M. i. nOR anD a. M. MOge in the city’s density. this can be attributed to the compact nature of FDP communities, which are dispersed across both the city center and its surrounding areas. according to the Mayor and iDP commissioner, factors such as a significant distance to travel on foot, the presence of makeshift shelters, insufficient lighting, and proximity to armed individuals can potentially contribute to instances of gender-based violence among vulnerable populations. according to Somalia (2020), a significant proportion of FDP groups mostly reside in communities situated on privately or publicly owned land, rendering them susceptible to the constant risk of displacement, which may be initiated by either private landowners or governmental entities. it is highly probable that the future urban landscape will encompass a combination of neighborhood extensions and infills within pre-existing areas. Both forms of growth will manifest in pre-existing communities that possess established values, aspirations, motives, lifestyles, and self-perceptions (Un-Habitat, 2020). it is anticipated that there will be a continued trend of migration into metropolitan areas on a global scale, but at a reduced rate (van Heelsum, 2016). in light of recent climate shocks, it is anticipated that Baidoa will undergo more migration. as a result, it is anticipated that the urban population will reach a total of two million individuals, and the current migratory trend will continue over the course of several years. Baidoa is anticipated to emerge as a prominent regional center for service delivery and a key national supply chain across several industries, along with the growth in land demand and infrastructure needs. this development encompasses the expansion of the real estate and property sectors. to address the needs of the population adequately, it is imperative to consider the necessary social infrastructure. additionally, it is crucial to determine the optimal placement and scale of facilities and services, as emphasized by the mayor. additionally, it is plausible that the city may require a distinct form of social infrastructure in the future compared to its current state, thus presenting an additional obstacle. therefore, in contemporary times, it is imperative to strategize the development of social infrastructure that possesses characteristics such as flexibility, multipurpose functionality, adaptability, inclusivity for diverse groups, and integration with activity hubs and transit networks. additionally, it is crucial to guarantee universal accessibility to this infrastructure. climate-inclusive financing represents a transformative approach to resource allocation that integrates climate change considerations into economic planning and investment decisions, ensuring that financial mechanisms not only address immediate economic needs but also contribute to long-term climate resilience, mitigation, and adaptation efforts. this approach prioritizes investments in sustainable infrastructure, renewable energy, and climate-resilient projects while ensuring vulnerable communities have access to necessary financial resources (Pauw et al., 2016). By incorporating climate risks and opportunities into financial decision-making, climate-inclusive financing promotes sustainable development and enhances the capacity of communities and ecosystems to withstand climate impacts (Micale et al., 2018). Furthermore, the collaboration between public and private sectors in mobilizing climate finance, alongside transparent and accountable allocation processes, is crucial for achieving global climate goals (Buchner et al., 2014; nor & Mohamed, 2024). this comprehensive strategy aligns economic growth with environmental sustainability, making it a critical component of contemporary financial and environmental policy frameworks. Based on the verified iDP Sites report of July 2022, Baidoa accommodates 498 internally displaced persons (iDP) sites, comprising 89,476 households that have been displaced, encompassing a population of 59,693 individuals. table 1 illustrates the significant growth in FDP sites from 2016 following an exponential pattern. Due to a significant increase in the number of households displaced and relocating to Baidoa, there was a twofold rise in the number of FDP (Forcibly Displaced Persons) sites in 2017. additionally, the population of FDPs experienced a fivefold surge, escalating from 5,600 households to 25,800 households. in 2018, the number of homes classified as FDP doubled, amounting to 44,995 (approximately 286,778). Since then, there has been a notable increase in the number of FDP locations, homes, and individuals, with an average annual growth rate of 15%, excluding the year 2022. the FDP household and individual data showed a significant increase in 2022. in 2022, there was a notable decline in the 74 internally displaced persons (iDP) sites. However, in the same year, there was a significant increase of 30% in the number of families, and a corresponding increase of 26% in the number of cOgent BUSineSS & ManageMent 3 individuals affected by displacement. the decline in FDP sites can be linked to technical reasons, potentially stemming from the requirement for certain sites to fulfill the requirements for being classified as FDP sites. according to recent data provided by the Southwest State commission for Refugees and internally Displaced Persons (iDPs), 82 additional sites for forcibly displaced persons (FDPs) were built in 2022. the pressing need to investigate durable solutions for forcibly displaced persons in Somalia is underpinned by theoretical frameworks that emphasize the interplay between conflict, environmental degradation, and socio-economic instability. theories of forced migration and development economics provide a critical lens through which the chronic issues facing displaced communities can be scrutinized. these frameworks help in understanding the cyclical nature of displacement driven by persistent conflict and climatic shocks, revealing the complex dynamics that influence migration patterns and the formation of displaced communities. this exploration is essential not only for constructing effective policy responses but also for fostering sustainable development strategies that address the root causes of displacement and aim at long-term stability and reintegration of affected populations. Somalia presents a unique case study for the exploration of forced displacement and the search for durable solutions due to its prolonged experience with state collapse, chronic conflict, and environmental crises. Since the collapse of its central government in 1991, Somalia has epitomized the challenges of managing displacement within a context lacking robust governmental structures and enduring substantial socio-economic hardships. this context offers a distinctive backdrop against which the effectiveness of international and local interventions can be evaluated. insights derived from Somalia’s experience are crucial for informing broader debates on displacement and development in similar fragile and conflict-affected settings. Despite the extensive documentation of displacement dynamics and interventions in Somalia, there remains a notable gap in comprehensive, empirically-grounded research that integrates socio-economic and political analysis with on-the-ground realities of displaced communities. the existing literature often focuses on immediate humanitarian responses and short-term management strategies without a thorough integration of long-term sustainability and community integration perspectives. there is a critical need for more nuanced studies that evaluate the long-term impacts of displacement on urbanization, local economies, and social structures in Somalia. Such research is vital for developing holistic and sustainable approaches to the challenges of forced migration and for ensuring that solutions are both practical and culturally appropriate, providing real benefits to displaced persons and host communities alike. this study argues that financing durable solutions for forcibly displaced persons in Somalia require a multifaceted approach that extends beyond immediate humanitarian relief, integrating long-term developmental and social integration strategies. Motivated by the persistent challenges faced by displaced populations within the complex socio-political landscape of Somalia in particular Baidoa city, this research aims to critically examine the effectiveness of existing durable solution frameworks and their applicability to fragile contexts marked by protracted displacement. the purpose of the study is to explore critical factors affecting the success of financing durable solutions for forcibly displaced persons (DSFS) in the context of Baidoa city, Somalia. By focusing on the Baidoa city context, the study aims to contribute to the broader discourse on forced displacement and resilience, offering insights that can guide policy formulation and implementation in similar settings globally, thereby enhancing the efficacy of international and local responses to global displacement crises. Table 1. FDP sites. Year FDP sites %FDP households %FDP individuals % 2016 80 n.a 5,600 n.a 33,000 n.a 2017 165 106.25 25,800 360.71 155,000 369.70 2018 377 128.48 44,995 74.40 286,768 85.01 2019 435 15.38 51,322 14.06 327,092 14.06 2020 517 18.85 59,921 16.75 381,896 16.75 2021 572 10.64 68,634 14.54 475,035 24.39 2022 498 (12.94) 89,476 30.37 596,931 25.66 4 M. i. nOR anD a. M. MOge Literature review Understanding durable solutions for forcibly displaced persons Forcibly displaced people, including refugees and internally displaced people, face numerous challenges in their quest for safety, stability, and a better future. Durable solutions are crucial for addressing these challenges and providing lasting resolutions for forcibly displaced persons. these solutions encompass a range of strategies aimed at facilitating the reintegration, resettlement, or local integration of displaced persons (lindert et al., 2021; turrini et al., 2021). One of the key durable solutions for forcibly displaced persons is voluntary repatriation (Maconachie etal., 2006). voluntary repatriation is the preferred solution for many forcibly displaced people, as it allows them to return to their places of origin or habitual residence in safety and dignity. Durable solutions for forcibly displaced persons, such as voluntary repatriation, play a crucial role in providing lasting resolutions and rebuilding lives for those forced to flee their homes (Janmyr, 2022). they are a means to ensure the safety, dignity, and well-being of displaced persons and contribute to their sustainable reintegration into their communities (akilova et al., 2022; teferra, 2012). However, voluntary repatriation as a durable solution is not without its challenges and concerns. voluntary repatriation as a durable solution for forcibly displaced persons is complex and requires careful planning and coordination (akik et al., 2022; Benson, 2020; turrini et al., 2021). voluntary Repatriation as a Durable Solution, is an issue of public concern because it can disrupt the lives of both returnees and residual refugees (Dako-gyeke & adu, 2017). it is important to consider the transitional period and the potential conflicts that may arise between returnees and host communities during the voluntary repatriation process. Furthermore, it is essential to acknowledge that voluntary repatriation affects not only the displaced persons themselves but also the host communities (verme & Schuettler, 2021). local integration is another durable solution for forcibly displaced individuals. local integration refers to the process of integrating displaced persons into the local community and society of the country in which they have sought refuge (agblorti & grant, 2019; Oginni etal., 2020). local integration, as a durable solution for forcibly displaced persons, aims to provide them with the legal status, rights, and opportunities needed to rebuild their lives and achieve self-reliance in host communities (Hovil & Maple, 2022; Spiegel & Mhlanga, 2022). while voluntary repatriation is often considered the most durable solution, local integration plays a significant role in providing stability and opportunities for forcibly displaced people (Hovil & Maple, 2022; Maconachie etal., 2006). local integration is recognized as a durable solution for forcibly displaced persons, providing them with the opportunity to rebuild their lives in the host location and contribute to the development of their new communities (akua-Sakyiwah, 2020). non-refoulement plays a crucial role in voluntary repatriation as a durable solution for forcibly displaced people. the international community, led by the UnHcR, recognizes voluntary repatriation as a fundamental right and a preferred durable solution for forcibly displaced persons (Mohee, 2021). voluntary repatriation is the preferred durable solution for many forcibly displaced people, as it allows them to return safely and voluntarily to their areas of origin (Hovil & Maple, 2022; Maconachie et al., 2006). Resettlement is considered a last-resort solution for displaced persons, as it involves permanent movement to a new location. Resettlement is a viable option for displaced people when other durable solutions, such as voluntary repatriation or local integration, are not possible or sustainable (wanninayake, 2021). Resettlement is a valuable option for individuals and families who are unable to return to their location of origin because of ongoing conflict or persecution (wanninayake, 2019). Resettlement offers them an opportunity to rebuild their lives in a safe and stable environment. while voluntary repatriation and local integration are often prioritized as the preferred durable solutions for refugees, resettlement serves as a crucial last resort for those who are unable to return to their country of origin or integrate into their host communities (Borggräfe, 2020). it offers a lifeline for individuals and families who face ongoing conflict, persecution, or other barriers to achieving a safe and stable life. Resettlement provides refugees with the opportunity to rebuild their lives in a country that is willing to offer them permanent residency (albers et al., 2021). addressing the root causes of forced displacement is crucial for effectively addressing the refugee crisis and finding durable solutions. addressing the root causes of forced displacement involves tackling cOgent BUSineSS & ManageMent 5 factors such as conflict, persecution, human rights abuse, poverty, and environmental degradation (abidde, 2021; SchRaven, 2019). By addressing these issues, it is possible to prevent further displacement and create conditions for sustainable peace and development. Furthermore, it is important to identify and prioritize vulnerable groups in resettlement programs. Resettlement programs play a crucial role in providing safe and permanent solutions for forcibly displaced persons who cannot return to their location of origin or be locally integrated (Fagen, 2009; Zetter, 2011). ensuring the successful repatriation and sustainable reintegration of forcibly displaced persons requires a comprehensive approach. it involves providing support and assistance to returnees in areas such as housing, livelihoods, education, healthcare, and psychosocial support (Frederico et al., 2023). it also requires addressing the social, economic, and political challenges that returnees may face upon returning. it is important to provide support and resources to return to individuals and communities to ensure successful reintegration. this may include assistance with housing, access to basic services, skill training, and job opportunities (kandilige & adiku, 2020). international cooperation plays a vital role in the implementation of durable solutions for forcibly displaced individuals (Betts, 2011). it is essential for countries and international organizations to work together to support the safe and voluntary return of displaced individuals, provide the necessary resources and assistance for their reintegration, and address the root causes of displacement to prevent future crises (Mencutek, 2022). without international cooperation, the burden of finding durable solutions for forcibly displaced persons would fall solely on host countries, leading to increased strain on limited resources and a lack of comprehensive and coordinated efforts to effectively address the issue effectively (Bhattacharya & Biswas, 2021). to effectively implement durable solutions, it is important for multiple stakeholders and sectors, including local governments, non-governmental organizations, international organizations, research centers, and universities to come together and collaborate (copestake & wellard, 2023; Mubangizi, 2022). it also allows for the sharing of best practices, expertise, and resources as well as the pooling of financial support to address the complex challenges associated with protracted displacement and the reestablishment of stability and self-reliance for displaced individuals (Morales-Muñoz et al., 2020). without it, the successful reintegration of forcibly displaced individuals into their communities would be challenging, and long-term solutions to displacement would be less effective (crisp, 2010; crisp et al., 2012). Restoring dignity and rights through durable solutions is paramount for addressing the plight of forcibly displaced persons. Restoring dignity and rights through durable solutions for forcibly displaced persons is an essential step towards empowerment and successful integration into society (Purkey, 2014). Restoring dignity and rights through durable solutions for forcibly displaced persons is essential to ensuring their well-being, inclusion, and ability to rebuild their lives (kamruzzaman, 2022). while it is important to prioritize the economic, developmental, and demographic impacts of displacement, it is equally necessary to consider the potential drawbacks of implementing durable solutions for forcibly displaced persons (Betts et al., 2017). One potential concern is the limited resources available to accommodate and integrate many displaced individuals into host communities. this can create strain on local governments, particularly in terms of providing housing, employment opportunities, and access to basic services. additionally, the process of implementing durable solutions may inadvertently perpetuate a cycle of dependency on external assistance (etzold et al., 2019). therefore, it is crucial to design and implement durable solutions that promote self-reliance, empowerment, and long-term sustainability for displaced persons. to address these concerns and ensure the successful implementation of durable solutions, it is crucial to adopt a comprehensive and right-based approach. this approach should prioritize the protection of displaced persons’ human rights, including their rights to safety, security, freedom, and an adequate standard of living (Howard-Hassmann, 2012). this approach should involve the active participation of displaced persons in decision-making processes, ensuring that their voices are heard and their rights are respected, including access to education and skills training, healthcare services, legal rights and remedies, and support for community integration and social cohesion (Harley & Hobbs, 2020). Furthermore, it is important to engage a wide range of stakeholders, including local communities, host governments, humanitarian organizations, and international actors and the process of implementing durable solutions 6 M. i. nOR anD a. M. MOge should be accompanied by efforts to address the root causes of displacement, such as conflict, persecution, and inequality (crisp et al., 2012; Janicka, 2020). Forced displacement, poverty, and durable solutions in the context of Somalia Somalia has emerged as the most notable example of a state collapse in contemporary history, following the country’s collapse in 1991 (Powell et al., 2008). the political disintegration of the region, characterized by violent conflict, anarchy, and statelessness, has become a highly captivating subject of study (Mohamed Haji ingiriis, 2020). according to Mohamed Mohamud (2020), Somalia has continuously retained its position as one of the five poorest nations globally over the past 20 years. the current situation can be attributed to the outstanding social and economic challenges that have emerged as a result of the state collapse. the Horn of africa frequently experiences mass migration and displacement as a result of environmental stressors, violent conflicts, and poverty (corbet & Záhořík, 2022). the socioeconomic and political landscape in Somalia witnessed a period of decline during the 1980s and the early 1990s, as many armed factions rose against the military regime (Bakonyi, 2009; Harbom et al., 2008). Before and during the occurrence of state failure, a significant number of individuals residing in rural regions became cognizant of the possible emergence of clan wars, resulting in social and political uncertainties (Mohamed H ingiriis & Hoehne, 2013; Mohamed Mohamud, 2020). Owing to imminent political violence, a considerable number of individuals have been compelled to relocate across various regions, including ethiopia, kenya, Djibouti, Yemen, and other locations (Hammond, 2014). the absence of a social safety mechanism in Somalia has been noted by scholars such as (Dunn & Brewin, 2014; Florence et al., 2021). Furthermore, Somalia lacks both national and subnational initiatives aimed at fostering the growth of robust social mechanisms within its community support networks (lwanga-ntale & Owino, 2020). in the aftermath of the conflict in Somalia, the absence of social protection programs, services, and support has resulted in a complete dependence on nongovernmental humanitarian organizations for the provision of emergency relief (carruth, 2018). according to a study published in 2013 by the world Bank group, forced displacement in Somalia has been driven by socio-political factors that drive people and communities to migrate within the country as forced displaced persons (FDPs) or outside the country as refugees (Ruiz & vargas-Silva, 2013). this study illustrates the interaction between the inherent fragility and susceptibility of pastoral nomadic and agrarian communities to environmental and conflict shocks. Due to cyclical droughts, clan-based conflicts, and weak or absent social protection mechanisms, many families and communities are forced to leave their native habitats for urban centers where basic support or new forms of livelihood are available (Mohamed Mohamud, 2020). although the study indicates that national and subnational authorities are ill-equipped to assist FDPs, they also lack adequate policies and resources (Mohamed Mohamud, 2020). Due to buzzing markets and flashy occupational opportunities, FDPs flock to urban centers for shelter, security, and livelihood. when examining poverty, scholars have employed a multidimensional approach (Fransman & Yu, 2019; Hughes & Bushell, 2013). when assessing poverty, it is common to consider four dimensions: money, education, health, and living standards (alkire & Fang, 2019; chakravarty & lugo, 2019; ellis, 1984). Poverty can be comprehensively explored by examining its underlying origins, intermediate causes, and resultant repercussions. in Somalia, a significant number of households and individuals experience hardship in one or more areas of poverty, as outlined in the 9th national Development Plan (nDP-9,9, 2020). among the most vulnerable groups within the nation, internally displaced people (iDPs) are the most obvious examples of the impact of multidimensional deprivation (admasu et al., 2021; nDP-9,9, 2020). the poverty analysis undertaken by nDP-9 utilized data acquired from High-Frequency Surveys (SHFS). according to the findings of the study, a significant proportion of the Somali population, specifically 69 percent, falls below the internationally recognized poverty threshold of US$1.90 per day, as measured in 2011 purchasing power parity (PPP) dollars. the demographic groups that experience the highest levels of monetary poverty include forcibly displaced persons (FDPs) and rural communities, specifically, agro-pastoralists and nomads. according to an nDP-9 report published in 2020 (nDP-9,9, 2020), approximately 10% of the Somali population resides within a range of 20% below the poverty line. this statistic cOgent BUSineSS & ManageMent 7 indicates that roughly 80% of the Somali population is susceptible to various external factors such as natural calamities, conflicts, and economic shocks. in Somalia, other dimensions of deprivation are less evident than financial poverty. the presence of several socioeconomic outcomes suggests that poverty is a multifaceted phenomenon, with health, education, and living standards falling behind both regionally and globally (admasu et al., 2021; Seadya, 2022). according to van den akker and van Roosmalen (2016), Somalia has elevated maternal mortality rates, stunting, and under-five mortality rates, which are among the highest globally. Primary school attendance rates in various regions of the country exhibit a persistent pattern of being very low, particularly among rural, nomadic, and female populations (Moyi, 2012). in addition to various other dimensions of deprivation, it has been shown that individuals of Somali descent face challenges related to physical safety and empowerment (Radina, 2009). Both conflict and climate emergencies have led to feelings of insecurity and displacement (Mason, 2014). there is a mixed picture regarding access to justice and police for rural inhabitants, with the majority relying on traditional, clan-based systems to resolve disputes (le Sage, 2005; Martins, 2014). the absence of empowerment has resulted in the phenomenon of exclusion, a characteristic of poverty that disproportionately impacts women, internally displaced individuals, and young people in terms of their economic engagement (nDP-9,9, 2020). Despite the completion of the most recent Population estimate Survey (PeS, 2014), estimations for pertinent demographic categories were made. according to the 2014 PeS report, the female population constitutes 56 percent of the total population and is responsible for generating 70 percent of household income. However, it has been observed that there is a lack of adequate representation of this particular group in the official labor force, as noted by adams and kruppenbach (1987) in their study conducted in 1987. Somalia faces many challenges and obstacles in finding a durable solution for forced displacement (Owino, 2021). State rebuilding and peacebuilding are undermined by protracted displacement, which is one of the leading causes of fragility throughout the Horn of africa (Zetter, 2011; Zetter & long, 2012). a coalition of humanitarian, development, peace, and state-building actors, together with the support of partners, was necessary to address the root causes of displacement holistically under the leadership of local authorities and informed by communities affected by displacement (nDSD, 2020; Owino, 2021). Due to the emergence of Federal Member States (FMS), displacement issues have been better coordinated, and government ownership has increased (nDSD, 2020). in 2016, Somalia’s national and local authorities gained more influence at the normative institutional and operational levels owing to strong political commitments to achieving durable solutions for Displaced affected communities (Dacs) (nDSD, 2020). For instance, incorporating durable solutions into national and local development plans and investments has led to the evolution of Somali institutional frameworks (long, 2010; Stein, 1986). additionally, Somalia’s Social Development priorities have facilitated the development of more innovative and impactful durable solution initiatives by anchoring work on durable solutions within them (nDSD, 2020). Somalia has adopted several policies to address abuse, inequality, impunity, and exclusion that have led to disenfranchisement and grievances among the Dacs (nDSD, 2020). Furthermore, it is worth noting that the government’s dedication to poverty reduction and the successful implementation of the highly debted poor country initiative entails a focus on prioritizing displacement work (easterly, 2002). according to the national Development Strategy for Durable Solutions (nDSD, 2020), in Somalia, Displaced affected communities tend to be concentrated in urban regions that are easily accessible. as a result, interventions aimed at reducing poverty can be implemented at a faster pace than in other impoverished communities. in general, the provision of government funding of this magnitude substantially enhances the likelihood of durable solutions attaining wide-ranging influence (nDSD, 2020). in 2019, the Durable Solutions Secretariat was established by the Federal government of Somalia (FgS) in response to the recognition of the necessity for comprehensive institutional involvement in addressing the issue of forced displacement (nDSD, 2020). to prioritize and implement durable solution initiatives in Somalia, it was essential to align them with the 9th national Development Plan (nDP-9), Resilience and Recovery Framework (RRF), and other pertinent government policies and frameworks. to achieve this, a government-led entity comprising 14 government institutions offers technical expertise and high-level strategic guidance (nDSD, 2020). Despite the emergence of numerous excellent practices, significant advancements in the establishment of infrastructure, and the promotion of cross-government strategies to maintain durable solutions, 14 M. i. nOR anD a. M. MOge One-way ANOVA table 7 presents results from multiple analysis of variance (anOva) tests, showing variability within and between different groups across several factors. in one significant result, the F-statistic of 10.055 with a corresponding p-value of .003 indicates a statistically significant difference among group means for one of the factors with a single degree of freedom, suggesting a strong influence of this factor on the dependent variable. However, other factors displayed in the subsequent rows, with F-values of 2.031 and 1.434, show lower levels of statistical significance (p = .043 and p = .186, respectively), suggesting a more moderate impact. notably, several interactions and main effects across different setups are not significant, with high p-values (.295, .884, .854, .728, .652), indicating that these factors do not contribute substantially to the variation in the dependent variable. this comprehensive anOva assessment highlights both critical and negligible influences, providing a nuanced understanding of the factors that affect the underlying response variable within the dataset. Key regression assumption tests the successful validation of statistical assumptions underpins the robustness and credibility of this study’s findings regarding the success of financing durable solutions for forcibly displaced persons (DSFS). each test plays a crucial role in ensuring the integrity and interpretability of the regression analysis, as detailed below: Normality of residuals the assumption of normality for the residuals is fundamental in regression analysis, as it supports the validity of statistical tests for coefficients. the application of the kolmogorov-Smirnov (D(223) = 0.11, Table 7. one-way anoVa. sum of squares df Mean square F sig education Between groups (Combined) 7.454 11 .678 2.031 .043 Linear term Weighted 3.355 1 3.355 10.055 .003 Deviation 4.099 10 .410 1.229 .295 Within groups 17.684 53 .334 total 25.138 64 sector Between groups (Combined) 3.931 11 .357 .516 .884 Linear term Weighted .191 1 .191 .276 .601 Deviation 3.740 10 .374 .540 .854 Within groups 36.684 53 .692 total 40.615 64 Position Between groups (Combined) 11.110 11 1.010 1.434 .186 Linear term Weighted 1.149 1 1.149 1.632 .207 Deviation 9.961 10 .996 1.414 .200 Within groups 37.328 53 .704 total 48.438 64 age11 Between groups (Combined) 3.703 11 .337 .705 .728 Linear term Weighted .002 1 .002 .003 .955 Deviation 3.701 10 .370 .775 .652 Within groups 25.313 53 .478 total 29.015 64 Table 8. normality of errors. statistics p Kolmogorov-smirnov 0.11 .44 Kolmogorov-smirnov (Lilliefors Corr.) 0.11 .072 shapiro-Wilk 0.97 .179 anderson-Darling 0.48 .229 Table 9. autocorrelation of the Residual. autocorrelation statistics p 0.06 1.85 .565 cOgent BUSineSS & ManageMent 15 p = .44), Shapiro-wilk (w = 0.97, p = .179), and anderson-Darling (a = 0.48, p = .229) tests confirmed that the residuals from this model are normally distributed as depicted in table 8. this normal distribution suggests that the error terms do not exhibit skewness or kurtosis that could bias the results, ensuring that the inference drawn from the regression coefficients is based on a sound statistical foundation. Autocorrelation the Durbin-watson statistic (d = 1.85, p = .565) addresses the concern of autocorrelation among the residuals, which could indicate that the data violate the independence assumption (see table 9). the absence of significant autocorrelation, as indicated by the Durbin-watson statistic, affirms the independence of the residuals, validating the regression model’s assumptions and its subsequent interpretations. Multicollinearity Multicollinearity refers to the situation where independent variables in a regression model are highly correlated, potentially inflating the variance of the estimated coefficients and making them unreliable. the tolerance and variance inflation Factor (viF) metrics are used to assess this issue. in this analysis, all predictors exhibited viF values (ranging from 1.13 to 2.00) well below the commonly used threshold of 10, and tolerance levels were above the critical level, suggesting no problematic multicollinearity (see table 10). this ensures that the regression coefficients are stable and interpretable. Heteroskedasticity Heteroskedasticity occurs when the variance of the residuals is not constant across all levels of the independent variables, potentially undermining the reliability of coefficient estimates. the visual inspection of residual plots against predicted values revealed no apparent patterns indicative of heteroskedasticity, satisfying the constant variance assumption (see Figure 1). this uniformity in variance across predictions confirms the model’s homoscedasticity, enhancing the trustworthiness of the estimated standard errors and coefficient significance tests (Figure 2). Table 10. Multicollinearity. Model tolerance ViF Limited Financial independence of the City authority (FiCa) 0.72 1.39 interaction of City authority with FDPs 0.8 1.25 integrity of the City authority 0.5 1.98 interventions of the City authority 0.5 2 interaction between FiCa and DsFs 0.75 1.33 spatial Distribution of FDPs 0.88 1.13 Figure 1. ▪▪▪. 16 M. i. nOR anD a. M. MOge Residuals statistics as shown in table 11, the distribution of residuals is critically examined to assess the predictive accuracy and reliability of the model. the minimum residual, -0.89, signifies the greatest underestimation by the model, while the maximum residual of 1.34 indicates the most significant overestimation. this range underscores the variability in prediction errors. notably, the median of -0.04 and a mean of zero suggest that the model does not systematically bias predictions in either direction, indicating overall model neutrality. the first and third quartiles, -0.39 and 0.29 respectively, delineate the spread of the middle 50% of residuals, highlighting a balanced distribution of under and overestimations. the standard deviation provides insight into the typical magnitude of prediction errors, and the absence of standardized residuals beyond the ±3 threshold suggests that extreme outliers are not present. this analysis confirms the model’s capability to predict with a reasonable degree of accuracy, while also identifying potential areas for refinement. Effect size in the regression analysis under consideration, the effect sizes represented by cohen’s f2 indicate that each variable possesses a substantially large influence on the outcome variable. the values of variables as illustrated in table 12 significantly surpass the threshold for a large effect (0.35 as per cohen’s benchmarks), suggesting that these predictors are critical drivers in the model. Such pronounced effect sizes underscore the importance of these variables in the predictive framework, providing compelling evidence of their substantial impact on the model’s explanatory power. this analytical insight is crucial for prioritizing factors in policy implementation or further academic study. Figure 2. Comprehensive framework for financing durable solutions. Table 11. Residuals statistics. Min Q1 Median Q3 Max Mean sD Residual −0.89 −0.39 −0.04 0.29 1.34 0 0.52 std. Residual −1.8 −0.79 −0.08 0.55 2.79 0 1.02 Table 12. Cohens f2. f2 Limited Financial independence of the City authority (FiCa) 2.47 interaction of City authority with FDPs 2.49 integrity of the City authority 2.5 interventions of the City authority 2.47 interaction between FiCa and DsFs 2.45 spatial Distribution of FDPs 2.44 cOgent BUSineSS & ManageMent 17 Regression results as reported in table 13, the regression analysis demonstrated a robust fit, with an R-square value of 0.74, indicating that approximately 74% of the variability in DSFS success is explained by the independent variables incorporated in the model. the adjusted R-square, at 0.71, further substantiates the strength of the model, factoring in the number of predictors used. this high degree of explained variance, coupled with a relatively low standard error of estimate at 0.55, underscores the model’s efficacy in capturing the dynamics of DSFS success. additionally, the anOva results further validate the model’s statistical significance (F = 27.36, p < .001), affirming that the predictors significantly differentiate levels of DSFS success. this collective evidence supports the reliability and relevance of the regression model in the context of DSFS success analysis. Limited financial independence of the City Authority (FICA) the limited Financial independence of the city authority (Fica) emerges as a critical determinant in the quest for the success of financing durable solutions (DSFS), with its influence being markedly negative. the regression analysis underscores lFica’s significant negative impact on DSFS, evidenced by a coefficient (B = -0.87, p < .001). this finding suggests that constraints on financial autonomy hinder the city authority’s ability to effectively support and implement durable solutions programs, implying that enhancing financial independence could potentially enhance the success rates of durable solutions for FDPs. Interaction of City Authority with forcibly displaced persons (FDPs) the study also delves into the dynamics between the city authority and forcibly displaced persons, uncovering a statistically non-significant relationship (B = -0.15, p = .341). this outcome indicates that while the interactions between city authorities and FDPs are intuitively vital, their direct impact on DSFS remains inconclusive within this analysis. it suggests a complexity in the interaction dynamics that may not directly translate to measurable outcomes in DSFS, necessitating further investigation into the qualitative aspects of these interactions. Integrity of the City Authority the integrity of the city authority, representing its ethical conduct and commitment to serving FDPs, presents a marginally significant negative effect on DSFS (B = -0.08, p = .087). this result highlights a nuanced relationship where the perceived integrity of city officials plays a role in influencing DSFS outcomes, albeit with a marginal significance that calls for a deeper exploration of integrity’s multifaceted impact on policy implementation and effectiveness. Table 13. Multiple regression results. independent variables Coefficient t-statistic (Constant) 2.01 5.55*** Limited Financial independence of the City authority (FiCa) −0.4 −5.09*** interaction of City authority with FDPs −0.07 −0.96 integrity of the City authority −0.16 −1.74* interventions of the City authority 0.21 2.26** interaction between FiCa and DsFs 0.96 12.4*** spatial Distribution of FDPs −0.19 −2.69*** R-squared (R2) 0.74 adjusted (adj. R2) 0.71 F-statistics (prob) 27.36 <.001 notes: Dependent Variable the success of Financing Durable solutions (DsFs). *p < 0.10. **p < 0.05. ***p < 0.01. 18 M. i. nOR anD a. M. MOge City Authority interventions city authority interventions have been empirically validated to make a positive contribution towards the success of financing durable solutions (DSFS), with a coefficient indicating a significant positive impact (B = 0.21, p = .027). this finding highlights the critical role that targeted interventions by city authorities play in enhancing the efficacy of DSFS. Such interventions, which may range from policy reforms to direct support and resource allocation for forcibly displaced persons, evidently serve as pivotal mechanisms for facilitating successful outcomes. the positive coefficient underscores the effectiveness of strategic, well-implemented city authority actions in fostering environments conducive to durable solutions, thereby reinforcing the importance of proactive, informed policy-making and implementation at the city level. Interaction between LFICA and the success of financing durable solutions (DSFS) the interaction term between the limited Financial independence of the city authority (Fica) and DSFS reveals a compelling insight into the dynamics at play, with a strong positive impact on DSFS success (B = 0.41, p < .001). this significant positive relationship indicates that the efficacy of financial independence in supporting durable solutions is not merely additive but multiplicatively enhances the success of DSFS when interacting with other factors. it suggests that financial autonomy, when effectively leveraged in conjunction with specific conditions or interventions, can substantially amplify the potential for achieving sustainable outcomes for forcibly displaced persons. this result underscores the nuanced interdependencies between financial independence and the strategic deployment of resources and interventions, highlighting a critical area for policy innovation and execution. Spatial distribution of FDPs (spatial) the spatial distribution of forcibly displaced persons within urban environments is shown to significantly influence the success of DSFS, albeit in a negative direction (B = -0.30, p = .009). this finding suggests that the geographic dispersion and lifestyle variation of FDPs can pose challenges to the implementation and effectiveness of durable solutions. the negative impact could stem from factors such as resource dilution, logistical hurdles in service delivery, or the exacerbation of social tensions, which collectively hinder the realization of DSFS goals. this insight into the spatial dynamics at play calls for a refined approach to urban planning and intervention strategies, emphasizing the need for spatially aware policies that mitigate the adverse effects of FDP distribution on durable solution outcomes. Developing a comprehensive framework for financing durable solutions after analyzing and evaluating the findings, we developed the following model as a framework for financing durable solution initiatives to assist FDP groups in securing sustainable financing for their initiatives. as shown in Figure 1, it is important to note that there are several critical success factors in this model, but the whole model provides a more comprehensive picture of how city authorities and development partners collaborate to ensure that FDP groups are provided with basic social services, employment opportunities, and better living conditions. Discussion of the results the core objective of this study is to explore critical factors affecting the success of financing durable solutions for forcibly displaced persons (DSFS) in the context of Baidoa city, Somalia. these critical factors include the limited Financial independence of the city authority (lFica), the city authority’s interactions with FDPs, the integrity of the city authority, city authority interventions, and the spatial distribution of FDPs. employing a robust multiple regression framework, this research has systematically uncovered how these intertwined elements collectively influence the success of financing durable solutions, with the cOgent BUSineSS & ManageMent 19 goal of furnishing actionable insights to refine policy and improve outcomes. notably, the findings reveal that while lFica negatively affects the DSFS, interventions at the city level show a positive effect, highlighting a complex interplay of variables at work. the regression analysis further provided quantitative substantiation of the relationships between these variables and the success of financing durable solutions (DSFS). the analysis indicated that approximately 74% of the variability in DSFS could be explained by the factors considered, with significant implications for enhancing the financial and operational independence of city authorities. these insights are instrumental in guiding policymakers toward targeted improvements that could bolster the success rates of initiatives aimed at assisting FDPs, thereby contributing to the broader discourse on urban management and displacement. this study’s highlights the divergent impacts of various governance and policy-related variables on the success of financing durable solutions for FDPs. the negative influence of limited financial autonomy (lFica) starkly contrasts with the positive outcomes derived from proactive city-level interventions. this disparity underscores the critical nature of financial independence in facilitating effective governance and the implementation of successful durable solutions. By comparing these elements, the study not only delineates the limitations imposed by financial constraints but also emphasizes the potential gains from strategic municipal actions. Furthermore, the comparative framework reveals how different dimensions of city authority behavior—ranging from financial management to ethical conduct—affect the overall success of policies aimed at supporting FDPs. For instance, while financial constraints impede progress, the integrity of city operations and their direct interactions with FDPs play nuanced roles that may not always translate directly into measurable outcomes. these insights highlight the need for a multifaceted approach in policy formulation and implementation, taking into consideration both the financial and ethical dimensions of city governance. the research sheds light on the underlying dynamics that influence the success of financing durable solutions for FDPs. the significant negative impact of lFica points to the critical role that financial autonomy plays in enabling effective policy implementation. On the other hand, the positive impact of city-level interventions suggests that strategic, well-planned initiatives can significantly overcome the barriers posed by financial limitations. this dual perspective underscores the importance of understanding both the constraints and the opportunities that city authorities face in dealing with FDPs. additionally, the study’s findings on the interaction between city authorities and FDPs, though statistically non-significant, hint at the complex and possibly indirect effects that such interactions can have on the success of durable solutions. Similarly, the marginal significance of the city authority’s integrity suggests that ethical governance, while subtly influential, requires further exploration to fully comprehend its impact on policy effectiveness. these results highlight the nuanced roles these variables play in shaping the outcomes of interventions for FDPs. the study also illuminates several contextual factors that critically influence the success of financing durable solutions for FDPs. the spatial distribution of FDPs within urban settings, for example, plays a significant role in shaping the effectiveness of interventions. the findings suggest that geographical factors, such as the concentration and dispersion of FDP populations and lifestyle of FDPs can exacerbate challenges like resource dilution and logistical hurdles, thereby influencing the implementation of durable solutions. this insight calls for a spatially aware approach in urban planning and policy-making to mitigate these adverse effects. Moreover, the integrity and interaction dynamics between city authorities and FDPs, though not strongly significant in statistical terms, highlight the complexity of governance and its impact on policy success. these contextual elements underscore the necessity for a deeper understanding of the local governance landscape and the interactions between different stakeholders. By considering these factors, policymakers can better tailor their strategies to the unique circumstances of each urban environment, enhancing the overall effectiveness of their interventions. climate-inclusive financing plays a crucial role in the successful implementation of durable solutions for forcibly displaced persons (FDPs), particularly in contexts like Baidoa city, Somalia. By integrating climate change considerations into economic planning and investment decisions, this transformative approach ensures that financial mechanisms not only address immediate economic needs but also contribute to long-term climate resilience, mitigation, and adaptation efforts. Prioritizing investments in sustainable infrastructure, renewable energy, and climate-resilient projects can significantly enhance the capacity of communities to withstand climate impacts, thereby supporting the stability and sustainability 20 M. i. nOR anD a. M. MOge of FDP interventions. the collaboration between public and private sectors in mobilizing climate finance, coupled with transparent and accountable allocation processes, is essential for achieving global climate goals and fostering sustainable development. in the context of Baidoa, where limited financial independence significantly hinders the success of durable solutions, enhancing the financial autonomy of city authorities through climate-inclusive financing could provide the necessary resources to address the unique challenges faced by FDPs. this approach not only aligns economic growth with environmental sustainability but also ensures that vulnerable communities have access to necessary financial resources, ultimately leading to more effective and adaptable policies. the findings of this study have profound implications for policy and practice, especially in improving the success of financing durable solutions for forcibly displaced persons. the negative impact of limited financial independence (lFica) on the success of these solutions suggests that policies aimed at increasing the financial autonomy of city authorities could lead to more effective and sustainable outcomes. enhancing financial independence would enable city authorities to implement targeted interventions more effectively, without being overly constrained by budgetary limitations. Furthermore, the positive effects of city-level interventions indicate that well-designed and strategically implemented policies can significantly improve the success financing of durable solutions. Policymakers should focus on developing and implementing interventions that are not only financially sustainable but also contextually adapted to the specific needs of FDPs. this approach requires a deep understanding of the local context and a commitment to continuous evaluation and adjustment of policies to ensure their effectiveness and sustainability. the findings of this study align well with existing literature, which emphasizes the importance of financial autonomy and targeted interventions in the management of urban displacement and the implementation of durable solutions (see for instance, Shehu and abba (2020), Spiegel and Mhlanga (2022), chatelard (2012), Janicka (2020), and Hovil and Maple (2022)). the significant impact of financial limitations as highlighted in this study corroborates previous research suggesting that financial independence is crucial for effective governance and policy implementation in the context of FDPs (see for instance, ganguly-Scrase and lahiri-Dutt (2016), Shehu and abba (2020), Bryld et al. (2020), Bryld et al. (2020), and adelman (2021)). this alignment not only reinforces the validity of the current study’s results but also contributes to a more nuanced understanding of how financial constraints affect policy outcomes. additionally, the beneficial effects of city-level interventions observed in this study echo the findings in the literature that proactive and well-planned city governance can lead to better outcomes in handling urban displacement (see for instance, (earle, 2016), (nikuze, 2022), (ayonga, 2022), and (earle et al., 2020)). this congruence between the study’s results and existing research provides a solid foundation for future investigations, offering a clearer path for the development of policies that can effectively address the challenges faced by forcibly displaced populations. the theoretical implications of this study are significant, offering new insights into the dynamics of financing durable solutions for forcibly displaced persons. the interaction between financial autonomy and other variables, particularly the multiplicative effects observed, suggests a complex theoretical framework where financial autonomy interacts with other factors to enhance the efficacy of interventions. this finding challenges and extends existing theories that predominantly focus on the direct effects of financial resources on policy outcomes, suggesting a more nuanced understanding of financial dynamics in urban governance. Moreover, the non-significant and marginally significant findings related to the interactions between city authorities and FDPs, as well as the integrity of city governance, invite further theoretical exploration into how these softer factors influence policy success. these aspects suggest that traditional models of policy analysis may need to be revised or expanded to incorporate these less tangible but potentially influential factors, enhancing the theoretical frameworks used to understand and predict the success of interventions in urban settings. this study makes a novel contribution to the field by highlighting the significant role of the interaction between financial independence and the success of durable solutions in an urban context. this interaction, which was found to multiplicatively enhance the success of interventions, introduces a unique aspect to the discourse on urban governance and displacement. Such insights are rare in the existing literature, which often treats financial resources and policy outcomes as separate or merely additive factors. Furthermore, the comprehensive approach used in this study, incorporating multiple regression analysis to explore a range of variables affecting the success of financing durable solutions, provides cOgent BUSineSS & ManageMent 21 a unique contribution by offering a holistic view of the factors at play. this approach not only enhances our understanding of individual impacts but also elucidates the complex interactions between different variables, providing a richer, more detailed picture of the urban displacement landscape. this study significantly contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence of the complex interactions between financial independence, city authority integrity, and the success of financing durable solutions for forcibly displaced persons. the findings extend previous research by demonstrating the negative impact of limited financial autonomy on the efficacy of durable solutions and the positive role of targeted city-level interventions. these insights enrich the academic discourse by adding depth and nuance to our understanding of how financial and administrative factors influence policy outcomes in the context of urban displacement. additionally, the study’s exploration of the spatial distribution of FDPs and its impact on the success of durable solutions offers a valuable addition to the literature. this aspect of the study highlights the importance of considering geographical and spatial factors in policy formulation and implementation, an area that has been relatively underexplored in previous research. By addressing these gaps, the study not only contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities in financing durable solutions but also provides a foundation for future research aimed at enhancing policy effectiveness in urban environments. Conclusion this study uncovered several critical factors influencing the success of financing durable solutions for forcibly displaced persons (FDPs). the analysis revealed that the limited Financial independence of the city authority (lFica) significantly impedes durable solution outcomes, whereas city-level interventions demonstrate a robust positive impact. the interaction term between lFica and the success of durable solutions highlighted a complex, multiplicative relationship, enhancing intervention efficacy under specific conditions. additionally, the spatial distribution of FDPs within urban environments was found to negatively affect solution success, presenting logistical and resource allocation challenges. theoretically, this research contributes to urban governance and policy literature by highlighting the nuanced role of financial independence in the effectiveness of interventions aimed at supporting FDPs. it challenges existing frameworks by introducing the idea of multiplicative effects between financial autonomy and other operational factors, suggesting a more complex interaction than previously acknowledged. this study also expands the theoretical discourse by incorporating spatial and integrity-related variables, providing a broader lens through which to view the dynamics of urban displacement. From a policy perspective, the findings advocate for enhancing the financial autonomy of city authorities as a means to improve the success rates of durable solutions. the study underscores the importance of targeted, well-crafted city-level interventions that can effectively utilize available resources and adapt to the specific needs of displaced populations. these insights are crucial for policymakers seeking to optimize the impact of their initiatives and ensure sustainable outcomes for FDPs. Practically, the study offers actionable insights for city planners and local governments. By understanding the detrimental impact of limited financial independence and the benefits of strategic interventions, city authorities can better plan and implement policies that are both effective and responsive to the challenges posed by the spatial distribution of FDPs. this research thus serves as a guide for developing more cohesive and practical strategies in urban settings plagued by displacement issues. the overall significance of this research lies in its comprehensive examination of factors that affect the success of financing durable solutions in urban environments. By integrating theoretical insights with empirical data, the study provides a multifaceted understanding of how financial, administrative, and spatial factors converge to influence policy outcomes, offering a valuable resource for scholars, policymakers, and practitioners alike. this study acknowledges several limitations that could affect the generalizability of its findings. Firstly, the study is based on a relatively small sample size. while this was deemed appropriate for the specific context and preliminary nature of this inquiry, it may limit the generalizability of the results. thus, caution should be exercised before extrapolating these findings to broader populations. additionally, the scope of this study is confined to Baidoa city. consequently, the insights derived may not fully represent 22 M. i. nOR anD a. M. MOge the experiences or conditions of city authorities in other regions. this geographic limitation restricts the study’s applicability to a wider context, which might differ significantly in terms of demographic, economic, or cultural characteristics. considering the limitations identified, future research should focus on expanding both the scope and scale of investigation. to enhance the robustness and applicability of the findings, subsequent studies should incorporate larger sample sizes, which would provide a more reliable basis for generalization. this would not only strengthen the statistical power of the study but also allow for more nuanced analyses of subgroups within the population. Moreover, extending the research to include multiple cities and diverse regions would offer a comparative perspective that could unveil regional variations and contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the dynamics at play. Such explorations would be invaluable in formulating policies and interventions that are both effective and culturally competent. in conclusion, this study makes significant strides in dissecting the multifaceted aspects of financing durable solutions for forcibly displaced persons, offering critical insights into the interplay of financial autonomy, policy interventions, and spatial dynamics. By providing a deeper understanding of these complex relationships, the research not only contributes to academic discourse but also aids in the formulation of more effective policies and practical approaches to managing urban displacement. this work lays a foundation for ongoing exploration and underscores the need for continued attention to the challenges and opportunities inherent in fostering sustainable urban environments for displaced populations. Ethical approval this study was conducted in accordance with ethical standards, having secured approval from the SiMaD University’s center for Research and Development ethical committee, which included ensuring informed consent, confidentiality, and protection of participants’ rights and well-being. Consent for publication we hereby provide our permission for the publishing of this manuscript, which includes any associated images or data covered within the text. Author contributions Mohamed Ibrahim Nor: conceptualization; Study Design; Methodology; Formal analysis; investigation; writing-original draft; Project administration; acquiring the necessary funding for the project. Abdulkadir Mohamed Moge: Software; Data curation; Formal analysis; investigation; writing - review & editing; the visualization of data and results. Diclosure statement no potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s). Funding this research was supported by the United nations capital Development Fund (UncDF) in Somalia. About the authors Dr. Mohamed Ibrahim Nor, a distinguished economist and finance expert, is currently serving as the State Minister for Presidential affairs in the Southwest State of Somalia. with a Ph.D. in international Finance from Malaysian Science University, nor has a rich background in government and academia. He previously held the position of chief economist and Permanent Secretary at the Prime Minister’s office in Somalia. Dr. nor has also worked at the world Bank as a Senior Data analyst for the Ministry of education. He has been teaching economics, Banking, and Finance at SiMaD University since 2009 and served as Deputy Rector for academics for over seven years. Dr. nor is a prolific researcher, active reviewer, and member of prestigious associations like the British Royal economic Society, american economic association, and american Finance association. cOgent BUSineSS & ManageMent 23 Abdulkadir Mohamed Moge is a seasoned Public Financial Management (PFM) adviser with extensive experience in Somalia’s public finance sector. He has played a pivotal role in the SSF and PReMiS-PFM programs, supporting the implementation of the first PFM Decree and BiSan systems. as a System administrator for BiSan, he became a leading expert in PFM it systems, contributing to budget formulation and financial statement development in compliance with international standards. His efforts were crucial in securing world Bank funding for the state. abdulkadir holds a bachelor’s degree in business administration from indian Ocean University and has completed international training courses in finance, governance, and project management. 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