Buja d, Ma in; Hudde, Ansga ; K iechel, Lisa
A icle — Published Ve sion
The Rolle coas e o Subjec i e Well-Being in Times o
Mul iple C ises: E idence o Fi e Wa es o Bi-Annual Panel
Da a o FReDA Su ey
Social Indica o s Resea ch
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Buja d, Ma in; Hudde, Ansga ; K iechel, Lisa (2025) : The Rolle coas e o
Subjec i e Well-Being in Times o Mul iple C ises: E idence o Fi e Wa es o Bi-Annual Panel Da a o
FReDA Su ey, Social Indica o s Resea ch, ISSN 1573-0921, Sp inge Ne he lands, Do d ech , Vol.
180, Iss. 3, pp. 1353-1385,
h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s11205-025-03707-6
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ORIGINAL RESEARCH
Recei ed: 30 Sep embe 2024 / Accep ed: 20 Augus 2025 / Published online: 21 Oc obe 2025
© The Au ho (s) 2025
Lisa K iechel
[email p o ec ed]
1 Fede al Ins i u e o Popula ion Resea ch (BiB), Wiesbaden, Ge many
2 Ins i u e o Medical Psychology, Medical Facul y, Uni e si y Heidelbe g, Heidelbe g,
Ge many
3 Ins i u e o Sociology and Social Psychology, Uni e si y o Cologne, Cologne, Ge many
The Rolle coas e o Subjec i e Well-Being in Times o
Mul iple C ises: E idence o Fi e Wa es o Bi-Annual Panel
Da a o FReDA Su ey
LisaK iechel1· Ma inBuja d1,2 · Ansga Hudde3
Social Indica o s Resea ch (2025) 180:1353–1385
h ps://doi.o g/10.1007/s11205-025-03707-6
Abs ac
In imes o polyc isis, such as COVID-19, he Russian wa agains Uk aine, and in la-
ion, ea and unce ain ies challenge many people. While he impac o he pandemic on
subjec i e well-being was ho oughly s udied, he medium- e m e ec s and impac s o
mo e ecen c ises a e s ill o be obse ed. Based on he i s i e wa es o he bi-annual
(and once i-annual) la ge-scale panel FReDA, we show he end o li e sa is ac ion
o e 16 ime poin s be ween Ap il 2021 and Janua y 2023. In addi ion, we conduc ixed
e ec s and andom e ec s o i e subwa es. Resul s e eal a mos ly inc easing le el o
li e sa is ac ion, wi h se backs du ing imes o COVID-19 and he Uk aine wa . These
se backs also esul om es ic ions du ing he pandemic and a highe consume p ice
index. In a compa ison be ween g oups ha di e en ia e be ween household incomes, he
lowes income e cile is pa icula ly a ec ed by c ises. Risk ac o s a e unemploymen o
a bad inancial si ua ion. Ha ing child en and being in a commi ed ela ionship exhibi ed
p o ec i e ac o s. We u he obse ed ha he ise in in la ion widens he happiness gap
so ha single pa en s a e disad an aged. Ou esea ch design p o ed he high po en ial o
combining a highe - equency panel wi h mon hly in o ma ion wi hin a wa e. As he i s
s udy applying his wi h FReDA da a, i pa es he way o u u e analyses o sho - e m
luc ua ion wi h panel da a. Ou indings on he discon inui y o li e sa is ac ion in imes
o polyc isis poin ou ha a moni o ing o u u e ends, ulne able g oups, and policy
suppo is indispensable.
Keywo ds Li e sa is ac ion · Subjec i e well-being · High- equency panel ·
COVID-19 · Polyc isis · Unce ain ies
1 3
L. K iechel e al.
1 In oduc ion
In ea ly 2020, he Co id-19 pandemic hi he en i e wo ld and dis up ed social li e. This
was, howe e , no he only c isis ha many socie ies, including Ge many, ha e since expe i-
enced. Inc easing summe hea and loods such as in he Ah - egion in Ge many in 2021 ha
killed mo e han 180 people make clima e change pe cep ible in conc e e e ms. The ele a -
ing h ea o clima e change inc eases bo h he equency and he in ensi y o such ex eme
wea he occu ences (Ma ka d & Rosenbloom, 2020). In ea ly 2022, Russia ini ia ed i s
ull-scale wa agains Uk aine which shook many people’s sense o secu i y and spa ked
ea s o mo e agg essions. Fu he mo e, gi en Ge many’s dependence on cheap gas om
Russia, his wa ini ia ed an ene gy c isis and consume p ice shock: he 2022 in la ion a e
was he highes ha Ge many has seen in abou 50 yea s (des a is, 2024a). In o al, since he
ea ly 2020 s, Ge many has been amids a phase o mul iple c ises.
These mul iple c ises o polyc isis (Law ence e al., 2024) appea mo e se e e in hei
closely imed o m and ehemence han hose in ecen decades; pa icula ly, because hey
a e occu ing on heal h, en i onmen al, poli ical-mili a y, and economic le els a he same
ime. In con as o indi idual e en s o c isis happening o e he li e cou se, such as sep-
a a ion, illness, dea h o ela i es, o unemploymen (Be na di e al., 2019), hese c ises
a e ex e nal, occu ing in Eu ope o e en globally. They a e po en ially a ec ing many
indi iduals ei he di ec ly such as h ough school closu es wi h nega i e consequences on
adolescen s’ men al heal h (Ludwig-Walz e al., 2022) o indi ec ly by inc eased unce ain y
du ing c ises (Comolli, 2023).
The COVID-19 pandemic, which sp ead h oughou Eu ope in 2020, and i s es ic ion
policies changed e e yday li es o nea ly e e ybody undamen ally. The e o e, i is no
su p ising ha he e is a as and e e -inc easing amoun o esea ch obse ing he implica-
ions o he pandemic. Subjec i e well-being is o en he ocus o such s udies (Bachmann
e al., 2023; Eas e lin & O’Conno , 2023; Guan e al., 2024; Hudde e al., 2023; Rogowska
e al., 2020). Howe e , p e ious esea ch a ies in he ope a ionaliza ion: many compa e
p e-COVID le els o COVID le els. O he s obse e a ew weeks o mon hs du ing he
pandemic. Wha is ye o be u he obse ed, due o he ecency o he o icial end o he
pandemic, is esea ch on pos -COVID li e cou ses ( o commendable excep ions see: Hue-
bene e al., 2024; Pa zina e al., 2024) o wo easons: i s , o analyze medium and long-
e m e ec s o he pandemic o examine i he obse ed educ ions in well-being du ing he
pandemic a e pe sis ing o i and unde which ci cums ances baseline le els a e eached
again. Second, o analyze he in luence o o he c ises, in pa icula he Russian wa agains
Uk aine which also impac ed o he Eu opean coun ies due o wa anxie y, ene gy c ises,
and inc easing p ices. The e o e, in he beginning o 2022, mul iple c ises a ec ed ci izens
simul aneously and o e ed an unp edic able u u e which migh impac li e sa is ac ion.
Though li e sa is ac ion is o en s able o e an ex ended ime, i can be a ec ed by changes
in one’s li e (Headey e al., 2013). Fo ins ance, li e sa is ac ion inc eases upon ma iage by
0.14, possibly due o inc easing ela ionship quali y (Ga ig & Minkus, 2021). In con as ,
wi hin he yea o he espec i e e en , li e sa is ac ion dec eases by 0.59 due o he dea h
o one’s child and by 0.54 a e he dea h o one’s pa ne (Asselmann & Spech , 2023).
Howe e , looking a mon hly da a has he ad an age ha such changes can be obse ed
mo e closely: compa ed o he mon h be o e he loss o one’s pa ne , he be ea ed pa ne ’s
li e sa is ac ion one mon h a e hei loss has dec eased by 1.03 (Hudde & Jacob, 2023).
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The Rolle coas e o Subjec i e Well-Being in Times o Mul iple C ises:…
In imes o mul iple c ises, e en s o c ises a speci ic poin s in ime (such as he ull-
scale wa in Uk aine since Feb ua y 2022, accina ion campaign e c.) a e o in e es ( o
mon hly e ec s o c ises on e ili y see: Buja d & Ande sson, 2024). While many o he
la ge panels( o an o e iew see Buja d & Wagne , 2023) such as he Eu opean Social Su -
ey (ESS), he Gene a ions and Gende Su ey (GGS), he Ge man Socio-Economic Panel
(GSOEP), Household, Income and Labou Dynamics in Aus alia (HILDA), o he Su ey
o Heal h, Ageing and Re i emen in Eu ope (SHARE) in e iew he pa icipan s only once
a yea o e en less, many social scien is s ied o ind measu emen s on a mon hly basis such
as h ough he Ge man In e ne Panel(Blom e al., 2020) o empo a ily he UK Household
Longi udinal S udy (McFall & Ga ing on, 2011). The apid inc ease o compu e -assis ed
web in e iewing (CAWI) mode o su eys in he las yea s was some imes accompanied
by a educ ion o ques ionnai e leng h and an inc ease o subwa es wi hin a yea (Gumme
e al., 2020). The amily demog aphic panel FReDA(Hank e al., 2024; Schneide e al.,
2021) we used o ou analyses is an example o a la ge-scale panel wi h semi-annual da a.
The cos - and web- echnology-d i en semi-annual CAWI designs(Wol e al., 2021) and he
in o ma ion o speci ic mon hs in a yea ly panel(Hudde & Jacob, 2023) o e a po en ial o
analyses o e he cou se o a yea which is a ely used ye , since he yea ly analysis pa e ns
o panel emains p edominan .
Howe e , in o de o analyze he cou se o li e sa is ac ion du ing mul iple c ises, closely-
imed egula in o ma ion on li e sa is ac ion and longi udinal da a is necessa y. The e a e
only ew examples o panel s udies measu ing li e sa is ac ion in he con ex o (pos -)
pandemic imes o mul iple c ises wi h mo e han one wa e pe yea in 2022-23 (Eas e lin
& O’Conno , 2023; Huebene e al., 2024). Howe e , hey su e om a low numbe o
cases (Huebene e al., 2024) o lack some li e-cou se ele an a iables and a e he e o e
analyzed on he mac o le el (Eas e lin & O’Conno , 2023).
Also, by ackling hese issues, ou pape con ibu es o he li e a u e in a wo old way:
Fi s , we analyze he de elopmen o subjec i e well-being in imes o mul iple c ises on an
almos mon hly basis. The eby, o ou knowledge, we a e he i s o conduc g oup-speci ic
analyses wi h se e al obse a ion poin s pe yea and es ima e hei indi idual le el de e -
minan s wi h ixed and andom e ec s. Second, we a e using in o ma ion o subwa es o a
semi-annual (and once i-annual) panel and p o i om he in o ma ion on di e en su ey
mon hs in he ield phase o each subwa e. We a e he i s o ou knowledge o combine
be ween-(sub)wa e and wi hin-wa e in o ma ion o a semi-annual panel, which allows o
desc ip i e analyses o li e sa is ac ion o six o eigh mon hs a yea . We discuss ad an-
ages and pi alls o ou app oach using semi-annual and mon hly in o ma ion. We analyze
i e panel wa es o FReDA be ween ea ly 2021 and he beginning o 2023, bene i ing om
in o ma ion on abou 20,000 ancho in e iews each wa e. This allows us o accoun o li e
sa is ac ion and i s indi idual de e minan s du ing mul iple c ises, namely he COVID-19
pandemic, p e alen especially du ing 2021, as well as he inc eased Russian agg essions in
Uk aine accompanied by he ene gy c isis om 2022 un il he end o he su ey pe iod, and
inally he pe sis en clima e c isis.
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L. K iechel e al.
2 Backg ound and Li e a u e Re iew
2.1 Well-Being Du ing COVID-19
Many s udies ocused on sho - and medium- e m consequences o he pandemic ( o a
e iew, see Pa zina e al., 2024). Some ecen s udies used se e al ime poin s du ing he
pandemic and hus highligh ed he dynamic ela ions be ween COVID-19 and well-being
o psychological heal h. Fo ins ance, Eas e lin and O’Conno (2023) ind ha pandemic
se e i y, measu ed by dea hs due o COVID-19 a ec ed li e sa is ac ion ac oss Eu ope
un il he summe o 2022. By summe 2022, sa is ac ion le els had mainly e u ned o
p e-pandemic le els in mos coun ies. Pa zina e al. (2024) s udy sa is ac ion ends in Ge -
many, inding nega i e ends and no eco e y by summe 2022. Impo an ly, hey ind no
clea he e ogenei y in ends be ween sociodemog aphic g oups, bu a he uni o m nega-
i e e ec s o he pandemic. Ca lsen e al. (2022) compa ed li e sa is ac ion among hose
whose wo k si ua ion and in ec ion s a us has changed be ween ea ly and la e 2020. They
ound ha li e sa is ac ion su e ed om a COVID-19 in ec ion as well as om job- ela ed
changes. The e is also e idence ha hose who we e a aid o COVID-19 exhibi ed lowe
li e sa is ac ion (Dymecka e al., 2021). The e o e, changes in li e sa is ac ion di e ed by
coun y and u he expe iences. We hus hypo hesize:
H1 Li e sa is ac ion su e s om inc easing pandemic- ela ed es ic ions.
Analyses wi h a highe equency such as mon hly panels a e impo an , because he
numbe o in ec ions and es ic ions we e associa ed wi h people’s men al heal h which
explains he he e ogenei y in ad e se heal h du ing imes o he pandemic (Reis e al.,
2023). Conduc ing a weekly su ey, i was ound o Ge mans ha while hei li e sa is-
ac ion su e ed om lockdowns, hei psychological s ain bene i ed om wo weeks o
con ac es ic ions (Le ache e al., 2023). Ano he weekly panel s udy showed ha such
sho - e m inc eases in men al heal h a e associa ed wi h changed ime-use (e.g., ga dening,
exe cising), whe eas an inc easing ime spen o ead news abou he pandemic a enua ed
psychological well-being (Bu e al., 2021). These dynamics migh also o igina e om he
al e ing in luences on li e sa is ac ion: Bakkeli (2021) ound ha be o e ime COVID-19,
li e sa is ac ion was p edominan ly p edic ed by heal h and wo k-li e balance, whe eas du -
ing he pandemic, he s onges ac o was sha ing a household wi h one’s pa ne .
Since he analyses wi hin his pape also ocus on pa en s, hei si ua ion du ing imes o
he pandemic will be explained. Pa en s expe ienced mul iple ins i u ions es ic ing hei
li es: egional go e nmen s, employe s, and childca e acili ies all had hei own se o poli-
cies ha also changed se e al imes. Especially inconsis encies in such policies bu dened
pa en s (Dinh e al., 2024). Mo eo e , pa en s expe ienced mo e dynamic shi s in es ic-
ions because schools could close, classes could be cancelled, o child en could be sen home
due o symp oms on sho no ice. Pa en s we e esponsible o main aining hei own s uc-
u es and well-being as well as o hei child en. Pa en s’ well-being su e ed om changes
in daily ou ines (Adams e al., 2021; Cusina o e al., 2020) and dis ess inc eased among
pa en s du ing hose imes (Adams e al., 2021; F eis hle e al., 2021). Mo eo e , he mo e
child en pa en s had, he mo e did pe cei ed pandemic bu den a enua e hei li e sa is ac-
ion (Schmid e al., 2024). Especially pa en s o child en a ending kinde ga en o schools
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The Rolle coas e o Subjec i e Well-Being in Times o Mul iple C ises:…
aced di icul ies due o closings and wo ies abou in ec ions. Pa en s who we e obliga ed
o home school hei child en du ing he pandemic expe ienced signi ican inc eases in psy-
chological dis ess (Adams e al., 2021; Calea e al., 2022). This also esul ed om he dual
bu den o pa en s o pu sue hei paid job a home while also moni o ing hei child en’s i -
ual lea ning (Dinh e al., 2024). The pandemic dis essed many pa en s enough o engage in
child abuse and neglec (G i i h, 2021). In Ge many, limi ed in-pe son schooling s e ched
un il mid-2022. O e all, pa en s expe ienced a g ea e ex en o es ic ions compa ed o
hose wi hou (young) child en. Ne e heless, i was ound ha pa en s we e mo e sa is ied
wi h hei li es compa ed o hose wi hou unde age child en (Buja d e al., 2023; Schmid e
al., 2024), which is e en os e ed by a good quali y o amily ela ions (Buja d e al., 2023).
Mo eo e , we also looked a he dispa a e cou ses o li e sa is ac ion o di e ing
household income g oups. This s ems om he inding ha hose wi h lowe incomes also
epo ed he highes dep ession a es du ing he pandemic (E man e al., 2024). P e ious
esea ch showed ha he associa ion be ween inancial wo ies and dep ession is s onge
han be ween income loss and dep ession (He z-Palmo e al., 2021). The eason o ha
is ha inancial dis ess media es he associa ion be ween bo h income loss and job loss
and men al heal h indica o s (Miquel e al., 2022). The e o e, in he case o he pandemic,
changes in income o a job loss a e less in luen ial han he pe cei ed inancial s a us which
we subs i u ed wi h household incomes.
2.2 Beyond COVID-19: Polyc isis, Unce ain y, and Well-Being
Gi en i s ecency, he e a e less s udies on he ole o o he and mo e ecen elemen s o he
cu en polyc isis. Beyond he ew a ailable s udies, we can lea n om ela ed esea ch,
e.g., om p e ious occu ences o c isis-e en s on well-being. P e ious esea ch shows
ha o he elemen s o he cu en polyc isis also ha m well-being. Fo ins ance, ollowing
Russia’s ull-scale wa agains Uk aine, Ge many has ecen ly expe ienced i s highes in la-
ion a e since abou hal a cen u y (des a is, 2024a) and i is well-es ablished in economic
esea ch ha in la ion nega i ely a ec s li e sa is ac ion (e.g., Cupák & Ši aňo á, 2023; Di
Tella e al., 2001). Ou second hypo hesis he e o e s a es:
H2. Li e sa is ac ion su e s om inc easing consume p ices.
Fu he mo e, while Russia’s wa agains Uk aine has cen ally a ec ed Uk ainians, i s nega-
i e impac on well-being also ex ends owa ds Eu ope mo e gene ally (Celuch e al., 2024).
A s udy wi h a con enience sample aced well-being in se e al Eu opean coun ies du ing
he weeks su ounding Russia’s in asion o Uk aine and ound a decline di ec ly ollowing
he in asion and on days wi h g ea e news co e age o he wa (Scha be e al., 2024). As
u he elemen o he polyc isis, clima e change inc eases he isk and se e i y o ex eme
wea he e en s while ex eme wea he educes he li e sa is ac ion o he a ec ed (e.g., Möl-
lendo & Hi sch eld, 2016). Al hough he salience o he clima e c isis may inc ease ol-
lowing ex eme-wea he e en s, he clima e c isis is a he a con inuous backg ound h ea
(Falzon e al., 2021). In sum, a ious elemen s o he cu en polyc isis a e de imen al o
people’s well-being and li e sa is ac ion.
The polyc isis is, howe e , mo e han jus a sequence o dis inc c ises. In he polyc i-
sis, people a e a ec ed by new c ises while p e ious ones a e s ill ongoing o ha e ended
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L. K iechel e al.
so ecen ly ha socie al eco e y p ocesses a e a om comple e (Tooze, 2021). A he
indi idual le el, he lack o su icien eco e y ime be ween c ises migh p e en people
om es o ing hei p e-c isis baseline le el o well-being. While some ad e si y can build
esilience, excessi e cumula i e s ess du ing a polyc isis migh exceed he ha m ha each
indi idual c isis elemen would ha e i expe ienced in isola ion (c . Pea lin e al., 2005;
See y e al., 2010; Tu ne & Lloyd, 1995).
Beyond he mo e di ec consequences o he speci ic c isis, he polyc isis may os e
gene al anxie y, unce ain y, and pessimism which in u n ha m well-being. The epea ed
o con inued expe ience o speci ic c isis-e en s induces a sense o unspeci ic o gene al-
ized dange . Coope and Nagel build upon Ul ich Beck’s concep o he “ isk socie y” and
desc ibe he cu en e a as a ime whe e people ha e he sense ha “any hing can go w ong
a any ime” (Coope & Nagel, 2022, p. 333). This eeling hampe s well-being and c e-
a es “sus ained uneasiness” (Coope & Nagel, 2022, p. 333). The ac ha isk i sel ha ms
well-being is shown by Möllendo and Hi sch eld (2016) who ind ha people li ing in
egions a isk o hu icanes exhibi lowe li e sa is ac ion, e en when ha isk did no ma e-
ialize and hey did no expe ience any angible damage. This ma ches he indings om a
ecen quali a i e in es iga ion in Poland ha analyzes he e ec o bo h he COVID-19
pandemic and Russia’s a ack agains Uk aine. They epo people’s eelings o anxie y and
o an omnip esence o isk. These isks ha m people’s well-being no only by a ec ing hei
p esen li es, bu also by ha ming hei ou look, hei “imagined u u es” (Pus ulka e al.,
2024). The consequences o unce ain y, pessimism, and ha med u u e ou looks a e also
shown by amily demog aphic esea ch. Such esea ch inds ha he socie al unce ainly
and pessimism induced by c ises – including economic c ises and COVID-19 – dep esses
people’s e ili y plans (Comolli, 2023; I ano a & Balbo, 2024; Vignoli e al., 2020). C ises
can cause pessimism and his pessimism is in a ecip ocal ela ionship wi h sa is ac ion.
Expe iencing lowe well-being a one ime – e.g., due o one c isis – induces pessimism
and he expe ience o pessimism educes u u e sa is ac ion (Joshanloo, 2024). The eby, he
polyc isis o con empo a y socie ies may ha m well-being beyond he c isis’ mo e di ec
e ec and ia inc eased anxie y unce ain y and pessimism.
In sum, i is impo an ha s udies concep ualize di e en elemen s o he polyc isis no
only as isola ed om one ano he , bu conside hem as connec ed. Wi h ou analyses, we
aim o con ibu e o such esea ch and o he con inuous acing o people’s well-being as
he polyc isis e ol es.
2.3 Sho - e m Analyses wi h Panel Da a
2.3.1 O e iew o Di e en Types o Panel S udies
These indings and he cha ac e is ic o mul iple c ises, which comp ise se e al ex e nal
e en s and sho - e m changes o h ea o disad an ages on li ing condi ions, ein o ce
he need o da a ha enables acing such change. The e a e a ious ways in which panel
s udies wi h di e en designs can be used o ace sho - e m changes and he ollowing sec-
ions desc ibe hose and syn hesize hem in Table 1. We ocus on h ee ypes o panel su ey
designs: ypical annual su eys wi h sho su ey pe iods, annual su eys wi h s e ched
su ey pe iods, and highe - equency su eys.
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The Rolle coas e o Subjec i e Well-Being in Times o Mul iple C ises:…
Fi s , in he mos ypical design o su ey panel s udies, people a e su eyed yea ly
and in e iews a e clus e ed in a main ield pe iod ha co e s a ew weeks o a ew mon hs
o he yea . Examples o his design a e he GSOEP, he B i ish Household Panel S udy
(BHPS), o HILDA. Fo ins ance, In he GSOEP’s main samples, mo e han hal o he
in e iews a e conduc ed in Feb ua y and Ma ch and abou 95% o in e iews a e conduc ed
in he i s hal o he yea .
Second is a modi ied e sion o he ypical design, in which people a e su eyed yea ly
bu in e iews a e sp ead e enly ac oss he yea . Possibly he mos impo an benchma k
example is Unde s anding Socie y, he ollow-up p ojec o he BHPS. He e he whole sam-
ple was di ided in o mon hly sub-samples, each o hem ep esen a i e o he UK popula-
(1) Annual
wa es, ield
pe iod du ing
ew mon hs
(2) Annual wa es,
ield pe iod dis ib-
u ed e enly o e
he yea
(3)
Mul iple
wa es
pe yea
Example s udy GSOEP1; B i -
ish Household
Panel S udy
Unde s anding Soci-
e y (main s udy)
FReDA,
Unde -
s anding
Socie y
Co id-
19 S udy
Mode CAPI, PAPI o
CAWI
CAPI, PAPI o
CAWI
Usually
CAWI
S udy ajec o ies
a ound indi-
idual li e e en s
o c isis-induced
li e changes
Requi emen :
De ailed in o ma-
ion on iming o
li e e en s (e.g.,
mon hly)
X X X
S udy e ec
sho ly a e
mac o- ends and
c ises, be ween-
indi iduals
design
Requi emen :
Su icien ly la ge
and ep esen a-
i e sample pe
su ey pe iod
(e.g. mon h)
X X
S udy e ec
sho ly a e
mac o- ends and
c ises, wi hin-in-
di iduals design
Requi emen :
Va iables o
in e es included
in se e al sub-
annual wa es
X
Table 1 Possibili ies o sho -
e m analyses wi h panel da a
wi h di e en su ey designs
1This conce ns he GSOEP
main sample, ce ain subsample
de ia e om his.
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L. K iechel e al.
ion (Buck & McFall, 2012). This s udy design was chosen so ha “di e ences o e ime
wi hin a wa e can be compa ed using na ionally ep esen a i e samples” (Buck & McFall,
2012, p. 10).
Thi d a e panel s udies ha su ey people mo e equen ly han yea ly. Se e al high-
equency panel s udies co e a b ie ime and a e ini ia ed in esponse o a speci ic c i-
sis, such as he COVID-19 pandemic. Fo ins ance, Unde s anding Socie y has added nine
su ey wa es wi h a sho ened and adjus ed ques ionnai e du ing he i s wo yea s o he
COVID-19 pandemic. As u he example, he Ge man COMPASS su ey was s a ed a e
he onse o COVID-19 and collec ed da a by conduc ing 17 wa es wi hin 30 mon hs. A
ew such s udies a e con inued o e se e al yea s, such as he Ge man In e ne Panel (GIP;
Blom e al., 2020) which conduc s six wa es pe yea . Howe e , he numbe o cases o
COMPASS and GIP a e in he lowe ou -digi ange. Finally, ou chosen da a se FReDA
su eys indi iduals wice pe yea (Buja d e al., 2024; Hank e al., 2024; Schneide e al.,
2021). Wi h a na ionally ep esen a i e sample o mo e han 20,000 indi iduals (plus mo e
han 8,000 pa ne in e iews), we a e no awa e o any panel s udy ha ea u es mul iple
in e iews pe yea o a compa ably la ge sample.
2.3.2 Analy ical Po en ial o Di e en Types o Panel S udies
Table 1 gi es an o e iew on di e en possibili ies o sho - e m analyses wi h panel da a.
Panel s udies wi h all o hese ypes o su ey designs can be used o ace changes due o
indi idual li e e en s in de ail, such as changes in well-being as people en e unemploy-
men , mo e o a new home, o become pa en s. Such analyses a e easible as long as he
s udies ask esponden s abou hei de ailed li e calenda , such as in which speci ic mon h
hey expe ienced hese ansi ions and li e e en s. Hudde and Jacob (2023) ha e illus a ed
his p e iously un apped po en ial o li e cou se esea ch by le e aging he mon h-speci ic
empo al dis ance be ween li e e en s and panel su ey in e iews. Fo a de ailed desc ip-
ion and an illus a ion ia simula ion me hods, see Hudde and Jacob (2023), o an applica-
ion and modi ica ion, Hudde (2024).
This app oach can also be applied in he con ex o mac o-le el c ises. Fo ins ance, one
could ace people’s well-being su ounding job loss in he cou se o an economic c isis
(e.g., in se e al Eu opean coun ies ollowing he 2007-08 inancial c isis) o i hei apa -
men en spikes du ing a pe iod o high in la ion. Mos majo panel s udies – including
GSOEP, Unde s anding Socie y, and FReDA – include in o ma ion on majo li e e en s like
amily and employmen changes wi h a leas mon h-speci ic in o ma ion, howe e , hey
may no co e all in e es ing changes, such as apa men en s, on a mon hly basis.
While he ypical panel design o s udies like GSOEP is su icien o apply his app oach
o mos li e e en s and indi idual consequences o socie al change, i eaches i s limi s when
ex e nal shocks a e sudden. Suppose ha a majo wa e o pandemic in ec ions o employ-
men layo s happen in Janua y o a gi en yea and su ey in e iews a e conduc ed du ing
he i s hal o he calenda yea . This would allow o ace well-being ollowing he i s
hal -yea a e in ec ion, bu no du ing he second hal -yea , because no one is in e iewed
six o wel e mon hs a e he shock.
To be e s udy popula ion esponses o mac o-le el shocks and changes, ieldwo k pe i-
ods need o co e ex ended pa s o he yea . Su icien ieldwo k co e age can be achie ed
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embe 2021. Du ing his ime, he ou h COVID-19 wa e occu ed. By No embe 2021,
mean li e sa is ac ion was a he high. The eceding and p eceding mon hs we e cha ac e -
ized by impo an poli ical changes: he new go e nmen was elec ed and came in o o ice,
boos e accina ions we e a ailable, he Omic on a ian was on he ise, and he heal h
sec o was eques ed o be accina ed o es ed o wo k. Mo eo e , as Fig. 2 shows, bo h
es ic ions due o he pandemic as well as consume p ices inc eased in he win e o 2021.
This migh explain he d op in mean li e sa is ac ion in Janua y 2022. In 2022, es ic ions
dec eased, while he consume p ices ose dis inc ly a e he enhanced Russian agg es-
sions owa ds Uk aine. Mean li e sa is ac ion dec eased in June 2022. Despi e i s b oad
con idence in e al due o a smalle sample (n = 199), mean li e sa is ac ion peaked in July
2022. The ea e , li e sa is ac ion dec eased again, hough he alues we e highe compa ed
o mid-2021. Howe e , li e sa is ac ion has no con e ged o he le els seen be o e hese c i-
ses, which we e be ween 7.3 and 7.5 be ween 2015 and 2019, as analyses based on GSOEP
da a show (Buja d e al., 2023). Mean le els wi hin his a icle and hose o he GSOEP
should be compa ed cau iously, since di e en popula ions a e obse ed. The e o e, i is he
au ho s’ assump ion (which can be c i ically ques ioned) ha mean li e sa is ac ion has no
con e ged o p e-pandemic le els.
In he appendix, he cou se o li e sa is ac ion o e ime, which illus a es adjus ed means
(Figu e 7), can be ound. To a oid ha ime ends a e con ounded, he model con olled o
he same co a ia es as he eg ession models (i.e., OSI, CPI, educa ion le el, employmen
s a us, numbe o child en, deg ee o u baniza ion, li ing in Eas Ge many, sex, age, and
mig a ion backg ound). All mean alues we e sligh ly highe han he weigh ed means. This
especially applied o he espec i e las mon hs o each wa e. The e o e, pa icipa ion in he
end o a su ey migh be selec i e. Be ween Ap il 2021 and No embe 2021, he adjus ed
means inc eased almos con inuously. Wi h he inc eased agg essions agains Uk aine, he
adjus ed means we e lowe ed only sligh ly. A e hei peak in he July o 2022, he adjus ed
means dec eased again, bu we e abo e he alues o mid-2021.
4.2 Semi-and T i-Annual Analyses To P edic Li e Sa is ac ion
Figu es 3 and 4 depic he andom and ixed e ec s. In he appendix, Table 4 con ains all
in o ma ion on he models, including con idence in e als and p- alues. The andom e ec s
ha can be aken om Fig. 3 show ha highe OSI le els we e ela ed o lowe le els o
li e sa is ac ion (s d. be a = − 0.04, p =.003). Simila ly, a highe CPI was associa ed wi h
wo se well-being (s d. be a = − 0.11, p =.021). People wi h highe educa ion (s d. be a = 0.04,
p <.001), who we e no unemployed, o who exhibi ed a be e inancial si ua ion (s d.
be a = 0.21, p <.001), eached a highe li e sa is ac ion. Mo eo e , he inancial si ua ion was
he s onges p edic o o li e sa is ac ion in he be ween model. Fu he mo e, hose who
we e in a pa ne ship (s d. be a = 0.15, p <.001) o had child en also exhibi ed a be e well-
being du ing imes o mul iple c ises. As compa ed o hose li ing in ci ies, inhabi an s o
u al a eas we e mo e sa is ied wi h hei li es (s d. be a = 0.02, p =.003). The same applied
o men (s d. be a = 0.02, p =.003), younge esponden s (s d. be a = − 0.09, p <.001), and i s -
gene a ion mig an s (s d. be a = 0.04, p <.001). Finally, mean li e sa is ac ion became be e
in each su ey wa e. The b oad con idence in e als du ing imes a e he mo e se e e wa
in Uk aine s ill signal a ce ain he e ogenei y wi hin he sample. The numbe o changes
be ween g oups can be aken om Table 5.
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L. K iechel e al.
Fixed e ec s can be aken om Fig. 4. When OSI (b = −0.01, p <.001) and CPI (b =
−0.03, p <.001) le els inc eased, li e sa is ac ion was a enua ed. Mo eo e , hose who le
unemploymen expe ienced an upwa d end in hei well-being which especially applied
o hose s a ing ou as sel -employed (b = 0.44, p <.001). Compa ed o he magni udes o
li e changes and hei impac on li e sa is ac ion, as men ioned in he in oduc ion, his coe -
icien was a he high. When compa ing he ixed and andom e ec s o he employmen
s a us, he ajec o ies seem o be mo e ele an o li e sa is ac ion han he be ween com-
pa isons. An imp o ing inancial si ua ion was also accompanied by inc easing le els in li e
sa is ac ion (b = 0.18, p <.001). The s onges p edic o o li e sa is ac ion among he ixed
e ec s was a new pa ne ship which inc eased li e sa is ac ion (b = 0.48, p <.001). The la ge
dispa i ies in coe icien s also shows ha en e ing a pa ne ship ( ixed e ec s) and being
in a ela ionship ( andom e ec s) a e di e en ly ela ed o li e sa is ac ion. Fu he mo e,
he bi h o a leas he hi d child was associa ed wi h inc easing li e sa is ac ion (b = 0.12,
p =.035).
Fig. 3 Random e ec s o p edic li e sa is ac ion. S anda dized be a coe icien s a e p esen ed. Ca ego i-
cal a iables a e p in ed in i alics. 95% con idence in e als we e used. S a s indica e signi icance le els
(*** p <.001, ** p <.01, * p <.05). OSI = Ox o d S ingency Index; CPI = Consume P ice Index; e = e -
e ence ca ego y o ca ego ical a iables; Mig . Backg . = mig a ion backg ound; gen. = gene a ion
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The Rolle coas e o Subjec i e Well-Being in Times o Mul iple C ises:…
4.3 G oup Di e ences in he Cou se o Li e Sa is ac ion du ing Times o Mul iple
C ises
4.3.1 Economic Di e ences
The esponden s’ household equi alen incomes a he imes o he second panel wa e in he
summe o 2021 was ans o med in o e ciles. The g oups di e en ia ed by his baseline
alue we e obse ed o e 2-mon h in e als (see Fig. 5). O e he ime, he e cile wi h he
highes income kep exhibi ing he highes mean li e sa is ac ion, while he lowes mean
li e sa is ac ion was epo ed by hose wi h he lowes income. Ne e heless, he cou se o
li e sa is ac ion o e ime was di e en a imes. Mean li e sa is ac ion o he mo e a luen
dec eased in he win e o 2021, while i inc eased among hose wi h he lowes income. This
con e gence quickly changed when he lowes income e cile epo ed a s eepe decline in
mean li e sa is ac ion han he o he wo g oups wi h he Russian wa in ea ly 2022. By he
end o he yea , wi h he exploding CPI, mean li e sa is ac ion o he g oup wi h he lowes
baseline income eached an all- ime low.
Fig. 4 Fixed e ec s o p edic li e sa is ac ion. Uns anda dized coe icien s a e p esen ed. 95% con idence
in e als we e used. S a s indica e signi icance le els (*** p <.001, ** p <.01, * p <.05). OSI = Ox o d
S ingency Index; CPI = Consume P ice Index; e = e e ence ca ego y o ca ego ical a iables
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L. K iechel e al.
4.3.2 Di e ences Due To Household Cons ella ions
Figu e 6 depic s he cou se o li e sa is ac ion o di e en household cons ella ions, namely
di e en ia ion by pa ne ship s a us as well as pa en hood. Couples o e all eached highe
mean li e sa is ac ion alues han hose wi hou a pa ne . Single pa en s mos ly exhib-
i ed he lowes li e sa is ac ion. Especially wi h he Russian wa , he o me con e gence
be ween single pa en s and singles wi hou child en s opped. Howe e , by he end o he
yea , hei man li e sa is ac ions con e ged again, indica ing he eco e ing well-being o
single pa en s.
4.4 Robus ness Checks
To es he obus ness o ou indings, we i s obse ed i he e we e any di e ences when
we excluded hose who did no pa icipa e in all panel wa es. The mul i a ia e esul s can be
aken om he Appendix (see Table 6). Since hose esul s ha dly di e ed om hose o ou
main analysis in ega d o coe icien s and signi icance le els, we conclude ha ou esul s
a e no biased due o panel a i ion.
Fig. 5 The cou se o li e sa is ac ion o household income e ciles a baseline. Weigh ed mean alues o
li e sa is ac ion a e illus a ed o e su ey mon hs (mon hs a e in he i s ow o he x-axis labels, yea s
in he second ow). The h ee g oups indica e he baseline quan ile o he household equi alen income
(GCEE) in he second su ey wa e (summe 2021). The i s quan ile ecei ed he lowes equi alen
household income, while he hi d quan ile ecei ed he highes amoun
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The Rolle coas e o Subjec i e Well-Being in Times o Mul iple C ises:…
We u he con olled whe he he o he mac o le el a iables di e en ly a ec ed li e
sa is ac ion. The esul s can be aken om Table 7 in he Appendix. We ound ha he e
we e no signi ican andom e ec s o he sea ch engine indica o s, howe e , he andom
e ec s o OSI (s d. be a = − 0.03, p =.018) and CPI (s d. be a = − 0.16, p =.00) could s ill be
obse ed. Mo eo e , he coe icien s o he sea ch engine indica o s we e close o ze o.
Rega ding he ixed e ec s, all mac o le el p edic o s we e associa ed wi h a lowe li e
sa is ac ion.
5 Discussion
This a icle has wo cen al aims. The i s is o obse e he cou se o subjec i e well-being
du ing imes o mul iple c ises and he eby also du ing and a e he COVID-19 pandemic.
Second, he me hodological aim is o sc u inize he po en ial o highe - equency in o ma-
ion wi h panel da a and pa e he way o a mo e equen use o his in o ma ion. Based on
da a o he semi-annual panel FReDA o i s i s i e subwa es 2021–2023, we ace li e
sa is ac ion ends wi h in o ma ion on a su ey pe iod ha includes 16 di e en mon hs
and ela e hem o he cou se o COVID-19, he Uk ainian wa , and he salience o clima e-
ela ed issues, amily cons ella ions, and economic indica o s. In addi ion, we un panel-
analyses o hese i e wa es. We ind he sha pes educ ion in li e sa is ac ion du ing
Fig. 6 The cou se o li e sa is ac ion o di e en household cons ella ions. Weigh ed mean alues o li e
sa is ac ion a e illus a ed o e su ey mon hs (mon hs a e in he i s ow o he x-axis labels, yea s in he
second ow). The g oups indica e he pa ne ship and pa en hood s a us
1 3
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L. K iechel e al.
s ic COVID-19 ela ed es ic ions. Du ing mul iple c ises, li e sa is ac ion has a mon hly
luc ua ion be ween 6.5 and 7.4; plus, wi h le els a ound 6.8 in ea ly 2023 no eco e ed o
he le els seen be o e 2020. These indings con as he idea o high s abili y in li e sa is-
ac ion and he epo ed luc ua ions con ibu e o ou unde s anding o he olle coas e o
subjec i e well-being. Mo eo e , such s ong changes migh co espond o Diene ’s (2006)
heo y. Though we only know p e-COVID le els o li e sa is ac ion in Ge many om o he
da ase s, he se e e ups and downs in li e sa is ac ion du ing imes o ou used su ey and
he compa a i ely low le el in he mos ecen wa e could possibly indica e ha baseline
le els om be o e he pandemic ha e no been eached ye . This migh be an indica o o
changing se poin s o some o he a ec ed people (Diene e al., 2006), o an addi i e nega-
i e e ec o di e en c ises ha cons i u e he polyc isis on li e sa is ac ion. In his case,
he hedonic eadmill a gumen o a eco e y wi hin abou a yea (Diene e al., 2006) would
no be ul illed. O e all, he ield is jus a he beginning o unde s anding which elemen s o
people’s li es a e mos a ec ed by he cu en polyc isis and how his di e s be ween soci-
e al subg oups. Wi h ou analyses aking ad an age o a la ge-scale, na ionally ep esen a-
i e s udy based on semi-annual panel da a, we aim o con ibu e o his eme ging li e a u e.
Pa icula ly a ec ed du ing c ises we e people om he lowes income quin ile, whe eby
ha ing child en, a (new) pa ne , highe educa ion, and lea ing unemploymen u ned ou
o be po en ial esilience ac o s du ing c ises. In de ail, ou panel analyses show nega-
i e e ec s o bo h indica o s o COVID-19 es ic ions and economic c isis ollowing he
ene gy shock a e he Russian wa agains Uk aine, namely he Ox o d s ingency index
(OSI) and consume p ice index (CPI). The e o e, hypo heses 1 and 2 we e con i med. The
eco e y o li e sa is ac ion a e he majo i y o people go accina ed and socie ies opened
up again in he au umn o 2021 was only pa ial and was no comple ed by 2022 o he
beginning o 2023. Ou analyses sugges ha he economic consequences o he Russian
wa , in pa icula he inc easing in la ion, con ibu ed o lowe li e sa is ac ion a e he
mos acu e phase o he COVID-19 c isis had ended. Fu he mo e, ha ing child en u ned
ou o be a po en ial esilience ac o , despi e he bu den pa en s had o endu e du ing he
pandemic. As p e ious esea ch also iden i ied ha ing child en o be ela ed o highe li e
sa is ac ion, e en du ing he pandemic, such and ou indings sugges ha ha ing child en
is a s ong p o ec i e ac o , po en ially bu e ing de imen al impac s o he pandemic. Ne -
e heless, since especially hose wi h pa ne s we e mo e sa is ied wi h hei li es, i can be
assumed ha i is especially he social suppo wi hin a amily (Buja d e al., 2023) ha is
esponsible o he be e well-being in amilies.
Apa om he esilience ac o s, we iden i y po en ially economic isk ac o s. The com-
pa ison o household income e ciles o e ime e eals ha he lowes e cile emains wi h
pa icula lowe le els o li e sa is ac ion especially a e he summe o 2022. The same
applied o single pa en s, hough hei li e sa is ac ion con e ged o singles wi hou child en
by he end o he su ey pe iod. Policy implica ions a e ha ulne able g oups should be
acknowledged du ing s aining imes as hey need mo e suppo o sus ain adequa e li e
sa is ac ion. In Ge many, social policies we e conduc ed such as sho - ime wo k schemes
(“Ku za bei ”) a he beginning o he COVID-19 lockdown in Ma ch 2020 o he “gas and
elec ici y p ice b ake” (“Gas- und S omp eisb emse”) in Feb ua y and May 2022 which
included a one- ime paymen o ene gy p ice compensa ion o 300€ o all employees and
se e al bene i s o amilies, companies, and hose en i led o housing allowances. How-
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The Rolle coas e o Subjec i e Well-Being in Times o Mul iple C ises:…
e e , despi e hese measu es, he lowe income e cile emained pa icula ly ulne able
amids c ises.
Ou analyses con ibu e o ou unde s anding o people’s well-being in a ime o he poly-
c isis. In his phase, howe e , he a ibu ion o he e ec s o he indi idual c ises is limi ed,
o easons o da a and heo y. F om a heo e ical s andpoin , he polyc isis may gene a e
a gene al anxie y, unce ain y, and pessimism, which in u n ha m well-being (Coope &
Nagel, 2022). Conce ning da a, hese mo e gene al consequences o a phase o mul iple
c ises canno be cap u ed by single indica o s o single c ises, such as pandemic in ensi y o
changes in cos o li ing. We can iden i y, howe e , ha li e sa is ac ion du ing his polyc i-
sis was con inuously supp essed. This sugges s ha , on a e age, cumula i e s ain o c ises
exceeds people’s esilience-building ac oss he gene al popula ion (c . See y e al., 2010).
While p e ious esea ch has gained insigh om add essing subjec i e indi idual unce ain-
ies and hei na a i es in he con ex o economic unce ain ies (Vignoli e al., 2020), we
sugges o ex end such app oaches o he cu en polyc isis, including c ises o wa , heal h,
and clima e. Mo eo e , u u e esea ch could also implemen u he dependen a iables,
such as men al heal h indica o s. I was ound ha while emo ions we e impac ed by he
pandemic mo e s ongly, hey con e ged o hei baseline le el mo e quickly as compa ed o
li e sa is ac ion (Helliwell e al., 2021). The e o e, u he compa isons du ing he polyc isis
a e wo h e isi ing.
Ou analyses ha e impo an implica ions o he use o la ge-scale panel da a, in pa -
icula wi h a semi-annual design, o sho - e m luc ua ions o a iables. We show he
possibili ies o mon hly in o ma ion by combining he semi- and i-annual subwa es wi h
he ield pe iod du ing se e al mon hs o each subwa e. Desc ip i ely, his allows o dis-
play mon hly a es o li e sa is ac ion o he majo i y o mon hs wi hin wo yea s; o panel
analyses wi h ixed e ec s, his allows o i e obse a ion poin s wi hin wo yea s. In pa -
icula , in imes o c ises bu also o li e cou se e en s such as bi hs o child en, mo ing
o ano he apa men , o change o occupa ion o pa ne ship s a us, sho - e m in o ma ion
wi hin one yea ha e a high analy ic po en ial. Howe e , his po en ial is a ely used, since
mos use s analyze panel da a such as BHHP, GSOEP o FReDA by only compa ing yea ly
in o ma ion. Though se e al majo s udies ha e added high- equency su eys in eac ion
o he COVID-19 pandemic, i is impo an o un such s udies con inuously. Only con inu-
ous high- equency panels will allow o he analyses o be o e, du ing, and a e - ends
su ounding u u e c ises. In addi ion, he use o mon hly espec i ely semi-annual da a has
a high po en ial o policy ad ice in imes o sho - e m changes o c ises. To his end, a
p omp da a elease, which o en akes mo e han one yea a e ield wo k, is impo an ; his
becomes an inc easing quali y es ing s one o u u e da a in as uc u es.
This s udy has se e al limi a ions. Fi s , he impac o speci ic c ises on li e sa is ac ion
can usually only be ela ed indi ec ly o he in o ma ion o ime ends. Howe e , we es ed
o mon hly mac o ac o s such as OSI and CPI as p oxies o he bu den o COVID-19
c ises and in la ion. Second, we do no ha e in o ma ion o e e y mon h du ing he pe iod
analyzed and he in o ma ion we ha e is i egula ly dis ibu ed. Howe e , we ob ain in o -
ma ion on six o eigh mon hs pe yea o show ends o li e sa is ac ion and ela e hem
o c ises. Thi d, he wi hin-pe son panel analyses can only use he semi-annual in o ma ion
and compa e he di e en wa es (subwa es), hey canno (o only o a limi ed deg ee) use
he mon hly in o ma ion wi hin one wa e. Fou h, since ou analyses ocused on wo yea s
o mul iple c ises, we ha e no compa ison o he ime be o e 2020 and o he ime he c ises
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migh be coming o an end. The e o e, analyzing long- e m e ec s on li e sa is ac ion in
he cou se o he nex yea s is an impo an e enue o u u e esea ch, in pa icula o see,
which esilience and isk ac o s a e a play. Cu en esea ch is only a he beginning o
obse ing such impac s.
6 Conclusion
Ou pape shows ha cumula i e nega i e e en s in li e can lead o a longe - e m a enu-
a ed li e sa is ac ion which migh no be he case o a singula c isis. Howe e , since li e
sa is ac ion was lowe du ing imes o he pandemic han du ing he polyc isis i can be
concluded ha COVID-19 has a s onge impac on li e sa is ac ion han he Russian wa ,
clima e change, o in la ion. While subg oups show dispa a e ends and a e di e en ly
a ec ed by c ises, pa ne ship is among he s onges p o ec i e ac o s and inancial p ob-
lems a c ucial isk ac o . To g asp he dynamics o he mul iple c ises and he pandemic,
we p o i ed om he semi-annual panel FReDA and i s mon hly in o ma ion. By doing so,
we e ealed and unco e ed he po en ial o panel da a ha has a ely been sys ema ically
exploi ed o da e. This can s imula e u u e esea ch on sho - e m luc ua ion o li e sa is-
ac ion o o he a iables which is in pa icula ele an o imes o mac o-c ises as sudden
e en s o special ha dening o many people in socie y.
Appendix
Su ey mon h Numbe o obse a ions
Ap il 21 26,502
May 21 9,105
June 21 2,037
July 21 18,002
Augus 21 3,659
Sep embe 21 313
No embe 21 16,598
Decembe 21 2,794
Janua y 22 785
May 22 20,488
June 22 2,908
July 22 199
Oc obe 22 16,745
No embe 22 4,536
Decembe 22 1,038
Janua y 23 116
Table 3 Numbe o obse a ions
pe su ey mon h o desc ip i e
s a is ics
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Fig. 7 Adjus ed mean li e sa is ac ion du ing he pandemic. Adjus ed mean alues o li e sa is ac ion a e
illus a ed o e su ey mon hs (mon hs a e in he i s ow o he x-axis labels, yea s in he second ow).
The model con olled o he same co a ia es as he eg ession models (i.e., OSI, CPI, educa ion le el,
employmen s a us, numbe o child en, deg ee o u baniza ion, li ing in Eas Ge many, sex, age, and
mig a ion backg ound)
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Table 4 O e all p edic o s o li e sa is ac ion du ing imes o mul iple c ises
Random E ec s Fixed E ec s
Coe . s d. be a CI p Coe . CI p
OSI -0.00 -.04 -0.00; -0.00 .003 -0.01 -0.01; -0.01 <.001
CPI -0.05 -.11 -0.09; -0.01 .021 -0.03 -0.04; -0.03 <.001
Educa ion (ISCED) 0.05 .04 0.03; 0.06 <.001
Employmen s a us ( e = unemployed)
employed 0.57 .14 0.44; 0.69 <.001 0.37 0.25; 0.50 <.001
sel -employed 0.64 .07 0.50; 0.78 <.001 0.44 0.29; 0.60 <.001
ou o he wo k o ce 0.54 .13 0.42; 0.67 <.001 0.34 0.22; 0.46 <.001
Financial Sa is ac ion 0.31 .21 0.30; 0.33 <.001 0.18 0.17; 0.20 <.001
In Pa ne ship 0.65 .15 0.61; 0.70 <.001 0.48 0.42; 0.54 <.001
Child en ( e = no child en)
1 child 0.26 .05 0.21; 0.31 <.001 0.03 -0.05; 0.11 .441
2 child en 0.24 .05 0.19; 0.29 <.001 0.04 -0.06; 0.14 .406
3+ child en 0.22 .04 0.15; 0.28 <.001 0.12 0.01; 0.24 .035
Deg ee o u baniza ion ( e = ci y)
Smalle own o subu b 0.03 .01 -0.01; 0.07 .110 -0.01 -0.14; 0.12 .841
Ru al a ea 0.08 .02 0.03; 0.13 .003 -0.11 -0.28; 0.07 .229
Eas Ge many ( e = Wes ) 0.04 .01 -0.01; 0.08 .166 -0.07 -0.17; 0.04 .205
Men ( e = women) 0.06 .02 0.02; 0.09 .003
Age (cen e ed) -0.02 -.09 -0.02; -0.02 <.001
Mig a ion backg ound ( e = no mig a ion backg ound)
1. gene a ion mig an 0.27 .04 0.21; 0.33 <.001
2. gene a ion mig an -0.05 -.01 -0.11; 0.01 .107
Su ey ime poin ( e = Ap -Jun 2021)
Jul-Sep 2021 0.17 .04 0.11; 0.22 <.001
No 2021-Jan 2022 0.50 .11 0.37; 0.64 <.001
May-Jul 22 0.55 .12 0.27; 0.84 <.001
Oc 22-Jan 23 0.69 .15 0.25; 1.13 .002
In e cep 4.10 3.89; 4.32 <.001 5.66 5.50; 5.82 <.001
Obse a ions 85001 118795
R² wi hin 0.03 0.03
R² be ween 0.21 0.15
Responden s 18966 40335
Change Numbe o
obse a ions
Unemployed ↔ o he employmen indica o 1,199
No child en ↔ child en 4,749
Ci y ↔ o he a ea 638
Wes ↔ Eas Ge many 681
Wi hou a pa ne ↔ pa ne 3,478
Table 5 Numbe o obse a ions
o changes o e ime
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