The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Sustainable Development Goals

Author: Gherghina, Ştefan Cristian; Simionescu, Liliana Nicoleta

Publisher: Basel: MDPI - Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute

Year: 2024

DOI: 10.3390/books978-3-7258-2068-9

Source: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/321944/1/MDPI_9783725820689.pdf

Ghe ghina, Ş e an C is ian (Ed.); Simionescu, Liliana Nicole a (Ed.)
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The Impac o COVID-19 Pandemic on Sus ainable
De elopmen Goals
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Special Issue Rep in
The Impac o COVID-19
Pandemic on Sus ainable
De elopmen Goals
Edi ed by
Ş e an C is ian Ghe ghina and Liliana Nicole a Simionescu
The Impac o COVID-19 Pandemic on
Sus ainable De elopmen Goals
The Impac o COVID-19 Pandemic on
Sus ainable De elopmen Goals
Edi o s
S¸ e an C is ian Ghe ghina
Liliana Nicole a Simionescu
Basel •Beijing •Wuhan •Ba celona •Belg ade •No i Sad •Cluj •Manches e

Edi o s
S¸ e an C is ian Ghe ghina
Bucha es Uni e si y o
Economic S udies
Bucha es
Romania
Liliana Nicole a Simionescu
Bucha es Uni e si y o
Economic S udies
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Romania
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Con en s
Abou he Edi o s .............................................. ii
S
, e an C is ian Ghe ghina and Liliana Nicole a Simionescu
The Impac o COVID-19 Pandemic on Sus ainable De elopmen Goals
Rep in ed om: Sus ainabili y 2024,16, 5406, doi:10.3390/su16135406 ................ 1
Taylo Hanna, Ba y B. Hughes, Mohammod T. I an, Da id K. Bohl, Jos´e Sol´o zano,
Baba unde Abidoye, e al.
Sus ainable De elopmen Goal A ainmen in he Wake o COVID-19: Simula ing an Ambi ious
Policy Push
Rep in ed om: Sus ainabili y 2024,16, 3309, doi:10.3390/su16083309 ................ 6
Bj¨o n Mes dagh, Oli ie Sempiga and Luc Van Liedeke ke
The Impac o Ex e nal Shocks on he Sus ainable De elopmen Goals (SDGs): Linking he
COVID-19 Pandemic o SDG Implemen a ion a he Local Go e nmen Le el
Rep in ed om: Sus ainabili y 2023,15, 6234, doi:10.3390/su15076234 ................ 23
K ys yna B zozowska, Małgo za a Go załczy´nska-Koczkodaj, El˙
zbie a Ociepa-Kici´nska and
P zemysław Plusko a
The Impac o he COVID-19 Pandemic on Financial Condi ion and Mo ali y in Polish Regions
Rep in ed om: Sus ainabili y 2023,15, 8993, doi:10.3390/su15118993 ................ 41
C is i Spulba , Lucian Claudiu Anghel, Ramona Bi au, Simona Ioana E mis
,,
Lau en
,iu-Mihai T eap˘a and Ad ian T. Mi oi
Digi aliza ion as a Fac o in Reducing Po e y and I s Implica ions in he Con ex o he
COVID-19 Pandemic
Rep in ed om: Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 10667, doi:10.3390/su141710667 ............... 59
Bea a Bieszk-S olo z and K zysz o Dmy ´ow
Assessmen o he Simila i y o he Si ua ion in he EU Labou Ma ke s and Thei Changes in
he Face o he COVID-19 Pandemic
Rep in ed om: Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 3646, doi:10.3390/su14063646 ................ 85
Bea a Bieszk-S olo z and Iwona Ma kowicz
The Impac o he COVID-19 Pandemic on he Si ua ion o he Unemployed in Poland. A S udy
Using Su i al Analysis Me hods
Rep in ed om: Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 12677, doi:10.3390/su141912677 ...............105
Joseph C aw o d
Wo king om Home, Telewo k, and Psychological Wellbeing? A Sys ema ic Re iew
Rep in ed om: Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 11874, doi:10.3390/su141911874 ...............124
Ind a Abeyseke a, Emily Sunga, A elino Gonzales and Raul Da id
The E ec o Cogni i e Load on Lea ning Memo y o Online Lea ning Accoun ing S uden s in
he Philippines
Rep in ed om: Sus ainabili y 2024,16, 1686, doi:10.3390/su16041686 ................140
Rebeca Ma ´ınez-Ga c´ıa, Fe nando J. F aile-Fe n´andez, Gab iel B´u dalo-Salcedo, Ana Ma ´ıa
Cas a˜n´on-Ga c´ıa, Ma ´ıa Fe n´andez-Raga and Co adonga Palencia
Sa is ac ion Le el o Enginee ing S uden s in Face- o-Face and Online Modali ies unde
COVID-19—Case: School o Enginee ing o he Uni e si y o Le´
on, Spain
Rep in ed om: Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 6269, doi:10.3390/su14106269 ................161
Elgiz Yılmaz Al un a¸s and Esin Cumhu Yal¸cın
COVID-19 Pandemic Lea ning: The Up ising o Remo e De ailing in Pha maceu ical Sec o
Using Sales Fo ce Au oma ion and I s Sus ainable Impac on Con inuing Medical Educa ion
Rep in ed om: Sus ainabili y 2023,15, 8955, doi:10.3390/su15118955 ................173
Eneko Tejada Ga i ano, Ja ie Po illo Be asaluce, A an zazu L´opez de la Se na and Ande
A ce Alonso
Emo ions o Educa o s Conduc ing Eme gency Remo e Teaching du ing COVID-19
Conﬁnemen
Rep in ed om: Sus ainabili y 2024,16, 1456, doi:10.3390/su16041456 ................202
i
Abou he Edi o s
S
, e an C is ian Ghe ghina
S
, e an C is ian Ghe ghina, PhD Habil., is a P o esso a he Depa men o Finance, Facul y o
Finance and Banking, and a PhD supe iso a he Finance Doc o al School, Bucha es Uni e si y
o Economic S udies, Romania. His a eas o in e es ocus on co po a e ﬁnance and go e nance,
quan i a i e ﬁnance, po olio managemen , and sus ainable de elopmen . He has au ho ed and
co-au ho ed se e al books and a icles published in op jou nals, and exhibi ed his esea ch a many
in e na ional con e ences. He se es as a e e ee o a ious leading jou nals, while also being an
Edi o ial Boa d Membe o Sus ainabili y,Economies, and he Jou nal o Risk and Financial Managemen ,
among o he jou nals indexed by Cla i a e Analy ics, Web o Science, Social Sciences Ci a ion Index
(SSCI), Science Ci a ion Index Expanded (SCIE), Eme ging Sou ces Ci a ion Index (ESCI), and o he
epu ed in e na ional da abases.
Liliana Nicole a Simionescu
Liliana Nicole a Simionescu, PhD. Habil., is a P o esso a he Depa men o Finance, Facul y
o Finance and Banking, and a PhD. supe iso a he Finance Doc o al School, Bucha es Uni e si y
o Economic S udies, Romania. He ﬁelds o expe ise a e cen e ed a ound public ﬁnancial policies,
sus ainable public budge ing, public ins i u ions ﬁnance, social p o ec ion and pensions, co po a e
ax, and applied econome ics in ﬁnance. She has au ho ed se e al books, has had a icles published
in p es igious publica ions, and has p esen ed he esea ch a nume ous in e na ional con e ences.
She se es as a e e ee o many p ominen jou nals indexed by Cla i a e Analy ics, Web o Science,
Social Sciences Ci a ion Index (SSCI), Science Ci a ion Index Expanded (SCIE), Eme ging Sou ces
Ci a ion Index (ESCI), and o he epu ed in e na ional da abases.
ii
Ci a ion: Hanna, T.; Hughes, B.B.;
I an, M.T.; Bohl, D.K.; Soló zano, J.;
Abidoye, B.; Pa e son, L.; Moye , J.D.
Sus ainable De elopmen Goal
A ainmen in he Wake o COVID-19:
Simula ing an Ambi ious Policy Push.
Sus ainabili y 2024,16, 3309. h ps://
doi.o g/10.3390/su16083309
Academic Edi o s: ¸S e an C is ian
Ghe ghina and Liliana Nicole a
Simionescu
Recei ed: 17 Janua y 2024
Re ised: 2 Ma ch 2024
Accep ed: 1 Ap il 2024
Published: 16 Ap il 2024
Copy igh : © 2024 by he au ho s.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Swi ze land.
This a icle is an open access a icle
dis ibu ed unde he e ms and
condi ions o he C ea i e Commons
A ibu ion (CC BY) license (h ps://
c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/
4.0/).
sus ainabili y
A icle
Sus ainable De elopmen Goal A ainmen in he Wake o
COVID-19: Simula ing an Ambi ious Policy Push
Taylo Hanna 1, Ba y B. Hughes 1, Mohammod T. I an 1, Da id K. Bohl 1, JoséSoló zano 1, Baba unde Abidoye 2,
Lau el Pa e son 2and Jona han D. Moye 1,*
1F ede ick S. Pa dee Cen e o In e na ional Fu u es, Jose Ko bel School o In e na ional S udies,
Uni e si y o Den e , 2201 S. Gaylo d S ., Den e , CO 80208, USA; aylo [email p o ec ed] (T.H.);
ba y[email p o ec ed] (B.B.H.); [email p o ec ed] (M.T.I.); [email p o ec ed] (D.K.B.);
[email p o ec ed] (J.S.)
2Uni ed Na ions De elopmen P og amme, 1 Uni ed Na ions Plaza, New Yo k, NY 10017, USA;
[email p o ec ed] (B.A.); lau [email p o ec ed] (L.P.)
*Co espondence: [email p o ec ed]
Abs ac :
E en be o e he COVID-19 pandemic, he wo ld was no on cou se o mee key Sus ainable
De elopmen Goals (SDGs) including SDG 1 (No Po e y) and SDG 2 (Ze o Hunge ). Some signiﬁcan
deg ee o addi ional e o was needed be o e he pandemic, and he challenge is now g ea e . Analyz-
ing he p ospec s o mee ing hese goals equi es a en ion o he combined e ec s o he pandemic
and such addi ional impe us. This a icle assesses he impac o he COVID-19 pandemic on p og ess
owa d he SDGs and explo es s a egies o eco e and accele a e de elopmen . U ilizing he In e -
na ional Fu u es (IFs) o ecas ing sys em and ecognizing he nea impossibili y o mee ing he goals
by 2030, h ee scena ios a e examined h ough o 2050: A p e-COVID-19 ajec o y (
No COVID-19
),
he cu en pa h inﬂuenced by he pandemic (Cu en Pa h), and a ans o ma i e SDG- ocused ap-
p oach p io i izing key policy s a egies o accele a e ou comes (SDG Push). The pandemic led o a ise
in ex eme po e y and hunge , wi h eco e y p ojec ed o be slow. The SDG Push scena io e ec i ely
add esses his, su passing he Cu en Pa h and achie ing signiﬁcan global imp o emen s in po e y,
malnu i ion, and human de elopmen by 2050 e en ela i e o he No COVID-19 pa h. The ﬁndings
emphasize he need o in eg a ed, ans o ma i e ac ions o p opel sus ainable de elopmen .
Keywo ds:
COVID-19; sus ainable de elopmen goals; human de elopmen ; po e y; hunge ;
o ecas ing human de elopmen
1. In oduc ion
The Sus ainable De elopmen Goals (SDGs) se e as he global amewo k o d i ing
p og ess owa d accele a ing human de elopmen . E en a hei incep ion, he SDGs
we e unde s ood as highly ambi ious, and p og ess since 2015 has no been on pace o
achie e he goals by he a ge da e o 2030 [
1
]. In 2020, he ou b eak o he COVID-19
pandemic led o no only mo e han 1.8 million dea hs [
2
] bu also shu downs and mi iga ion
measu es wo ldwide, slowing economic g ow h. Inequali y inc eased bo h ac oss and
wi hin de eloping coun ies [
3
,
4
], and o he ﬁ s ime in decades, he global po e y
a e inc eased, signaling a e e sal o ecen p og ess. While he economy has ebounded,
g ow h has se led back o a posi i e bu mode a e pace. This along wi h he many o he
e ec s o COVID-19 is expec ed o ha e implica ions o p og ess owa d SDG achie emen
ac oss he SDG agenda [5–7].
P e ious wo k explo ed how COVID-19 would impac he SDGs, wi h some s udies
b oadly assessing he li e a u e on de elopmen al ou comes [
5
,
8
] o ocusing on sho - e m
quan i a i e ou comes ac oss a wide ange o indica o s [
9
]. This esea ch ﬁnds ha he
pandemic has indeed nega i ely a ec ed many SDGs [
8
,
10
], se ing o e all p og ess back
8.2 pe cen in i s ﬁ s yea [
6
]. O he esea ch has ocused on speciﬁc SDG indica o s,
Sus ainabili y 2024,16, 3309. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/su16083309 h ps://www.mdpi.com/jou nal/sus ainabili y
6

Sus ainabili y 2024,16, 3309
including global po e y [
3
,
11
–
16
], ood a o dabili y [
17
], ood insecu i y [
14
], hunge [
18
],
and ma e nal and child heal h and unde nu i ion [
19
,
20
]. This li e a u e is also ocused
on e ec s in he ﬁ s ew yea s a e COVID-19. Coope e al. [
21
] p ojec mode a e and
se e e ood insecu i y h ough o 2030, hough no in compa ison o a baseline wi hou he
pandemic. O he wo k p ojec s he ou comes om an in eg a ed de elopmen push on
SDG achie emen bu wi hou conside ing he e ec o COVID-19 [22].
Now, mo e han hal way h ough he SDG ho izon and se e al yea s ou o he ini ial
COVID-19 ou b eak, we ﬁll gaps in he li e a u e by eassessing p og ess and aking s ock
o he pa h we a e cu en ly on while assessing p ospec s o accele a ing de elopmen .
This pape ad ances he unde s anding o how he COVID-19 pandemic has a ec ed
p og ess owa d achie ing he ﬁ s wo SDGs (SDG 1: No Po e y; SDG 2: Ze o Hunge )
and imp o ing he Human De elopmen Index (HDI), which summa izes p og ess owa ds
se e al o he SDGs.
I hen u ns o explo e how an ambi ious push owa d global de elopmen migh
make up o ha se back. P e ious wo k has p oposed s a egies o global esponses ha
push beyond add essing he pandemic’s immedia e e ec s [
23
], anking esponse s a egies
in ela ion o he SDGs [
24
], and e en mapped ou po en ial u u e scena ios and how SDG
p og ess may be posi i ely o nega i ely a ec ed [
25
]. The e emains a gap in he li e a u e
ela ed o quan i a i ely assessing esponses o he gene ally accep ed de elopmen al
se back caused by COVID-19 and how hese esponses migh al e de elopmen in he long
un. We ﬁll his gap by explo ing al e na i e mul idimensional policy s a egies ha can
imp o e long- e m human wellbeing in spi e o he pandemic.
We ﬁnd ha e en p io o he COVID-19 ou b eak, he wo ld was no on ack o
achie e he SDG agenda, ein o cing ﬁndings in he li e a u e. We ﬁnd ha he e ec o
COVID-19 had an immedia e ad e se impac on p og ess owa d he SDGs and ha he
shock will cas a long shadow, se ing back p og ess o decades om whe e i would
ha e o he wise been. In addi ion, we ﬁnd ha signiﬁcan imp o emen s can be made
o he de elopmen ajec o y ha imp o e SDG a ainmen i a se o policy p io i ies
a e pu sued.
COVID-19 will no be he las shock o challenge global de elopmen , and i will
be impo an o be e unde s and how o o e come bo h i and challenges in he u u e.
The e o e, one o ou scena ios explo es how a subs an ial and ans o ma i e agenda could
accele a e p og ess owa d he SDG a ge s by midcen u y. This o e s insigh in o how
in eg a ed ac ion ac oss policy a eas can u he sus ainable de elopmen and se he wo ld
on a new pa h o wa d. We ﬁnd ha his scena io, while i does no esul in achie ing he
Goals on ime in all coun ies, is success ul in quickly making up o he damage inﬂic ed
by COVID-19 and u he in p opelling p og ess o decades o come.
This pape p oceeds by ﬁ s elabo a ing he me hods used o d i e he analysis wi h
a pa icula emphasis on he s uc u e o he modeling amewo k and scena io assump-
ions. Nex , we p esen he esul s, highligh ing how he COVID-19 pandemic is likely o
change long- e m de elopmen ou comes and wha a success ul se o policy s a egies can
do o u he imp o e de elopmen ou comes beyond ou Cu en Pa h o de elopmen .
Finally, we discuss hese ﬁndings and highligh me hodological challenges as well as some
implica ions o he policy s a egies ha a e modeled.
2. Ma e ials and Me hods
2.1. In e na ional Fu u es
This s udy uses he In e na ional Fu u es (IFs) o ecas ing sys em o o ecas ing and
scena io analysis. IFs is an in eg a ed assessmen modeling pla o m wi h ep esen a ion
o 188 coun ies and capabili y o o ecas ou o 2100. I ea u es nume ous endogenized
and in e connec ed sub-models wi h co e age o he ollowing sys ems: ag icul u e [
26
],
economics, educa ion [
27
], ene gy, en i onmen [
28
], demog aphics, go e nance [
29
,
30
],
heal h [
31
], in as uc u e [
32
], in e na ional poli ics [
33
], and echnology. IFs is open-sou ce
and is ee o use online o o download o o ﬂine use. The ollowing sec ions desc ibe key
7
Sus ainabili y 2024,16, 3309
a eas o he model o his wo k, bu ex ensi e model in o ma ion and documen a ion is
a ailable o u he de ail [34].
IFs o ecas s pa e ns o long- e m economic g ow h using a ecu si e dynamic gene al
equilib ium-seeking s uc u e wi h a Cobb–Douglas p oduc ion unc ion and an endoge-
nously dynamic Solow esidual. Six capi al sec o s, labo by skill le el, and he endoge-
nously d i en p oduc i i y e m a e shaped by o ces wi hin each o he 188 coun ies
bu also by in e na ional ade, o ﬁcial de elopmen assis ance, o eign di ec in es men
ﬂows, and in e na ional mig a ion wi h associa ed emi ance pa e ns. A social accoun -
ing ma ix s uc u e accoun s o ﬂows ac oss economic sec o s and be ween households,
ﬁ ms, and go e nmen s and wi h he es o he wo ld. Rep esen a ion o go e nmen
ﬁnance wi hin he social accoun ing ma ix includes speciﬁca ion o e enues om domes-
ic axa ion s eams and o eign assis ance, while iden iﬁed expendi u es include ans e
paymen s and di ec spending in mili a y, heal h, educa ion, esea ch and de elopmen
(R&D), in as uc u e, and esidual ca ego ies. O he co e ea u es o he IFs model include
pa ial-equilib ium ag icul u e and ene gy models physically elabo a ing hose sec o s o
he o al economy, an in as uc u e model wi h access o in o ma ion and communica ion
echnologies, elec ici y, wa e and sani a ion, and pa ed oads [
32
], as well as well as
an educa ion model which simula es he g ade-le el ﬂow o s uden s h ough he educa ion
sys em and he pa e n o educa ional a ainmen ac oss adul li e spans.
Al hough he IFs sys em o ecas s a iables ela ed o selec ed a ge s o all SDG goals,
we ocus he e on h ee co e ou come indica o s in IFs: po e y, unde nu i ion, and he
HDI, each desc ibed below.
2.1.1. Po e y
Po e y a es in IFs a e ini ialized using da a om he Wo ld Bank [
35
], which come
o iginally om household su eys and a e d i en by he model’s economic g ow h and
inequali y models [
36
]. The social accoun ing ma ix s uc u e o he economic model
acks ﬁnancial ﬂows o and om households esul ing om labo ea nings and ans e s
in in e ac ion wi h ﬁ ms and go e nmen s. Resul an disposable income is alloca ed o
consump ion o sa ings based on long- e m coun y de elopmen pa e ns, demog aphic
s uc u e, and sec o al p ices and in e es a es. Po e y a es a e es ima ed a pe -capi a
household consump ion le els assuming a log-no mal dis ibu ion o household income,
he shape o which is a ec ed by changes o he Gini coe ﬁcien .
Fo his analysis, we ocus on ex eme po e y, using he ecen ly upda ed in e na ional
po e y line o USD 2.15/day in 2017 US dolla s a pu chasing powe pa i y. Fo coun ies
lacking da a alues, he model es ima es ini ial alues using a c oss-sec ional unc ion wi h
GDP pe capi a.
2.1.2. Malnu i ion
Building on a iables om and in e ac ions ac oss he demog aphic, gene al equilib-
ium economic, and pa ial-equilib ium ag icul u e models, IFs o ecas s he p e alence
o malnu i ion as a unc ion o a ailable calo ies pe capi a, a coe ﬁcien o a ia ion,
and a minimum die a y ene gy equi emen . The pa ial-equilib ium ag icul u e sub-model
ep esen s c op, mea , and ﬁsh p oduc ion and ade and he e o e calo ie and p o ein
a ailabili y [
26
], while he economic model gene a es consump ion po en ial and calo ie
demand pe capi a as unc ions o GDP pe capi a and ood p ices. Demog aphics shape o-
al coun y demand le els. As wi h he income ha shapes po e y le els, access o calo ies
is assumed o be dis ibu ed log-no mally. The shape o he dis ibu ion is de e mined by
he calo ic coe ﬁcien o a ia ion, which is d i en by income g ow h, inequali y, and social
inequali y, as ep esen ed by emale labo pa icipa ion and he you h dependency a io.
Da a om he FAO a e used o ini ialize he p e alence o malnu i ion as well as calo ies
pe capi a, he coe ﬁcien o a ia ion, and he minimum daily ene gy equi emen [26].
8
Sus ainabili y 2024,16, 3309
This analysis is ocused on popula ion-wide malnu i ion o p o ide he b oades
pic u e o p og ess owa d elimina ing hunge . I does no accoun o di e ing le els o
hunge by gende o o young child en, measu es o which a e also a ailable in IFs.
2.1.3. Human De elopmen Index
The HDI has been designed and main ained by he Uni ed Na ions De elopmen P o-
g amme (UNDP) o measu e gene al le els o human de elopmen in all coun ies ac oss
h ee basic dimensions—heal h, educa ion, and li ing s anda ds. The UNDP eplaced
an ea lie and simple e sion o he HDI wi h a mo e eﬁned e sion in 2010 [
37
]. This in-
dex is a geome ic mean o h ee no malized sub-indices, ep esen ing (1) li e expec ancy
a bi h, (2) an a e age o mean yea s o schooling comple ed a age 25 o olde and he
expec ed yea s o schooling upon en y o educa ion, and (3) a loga i hm o g oss na ional
income pe capi a a pu chasing powe pa i y ( o which IFs subs i u es g oss domes ic
p oduc a PPP). Da a om he UNDP ini ialize he HDI alues o each coun y in he 2019
base yea o IFs [35].
Fo ecas s o he HDI in IFs a e d i en by se e al sub-models, especially he demo-
g aphic, heal h, educa ion, and economic models. The heal h model p oduces he li e
expec ancy index. This model, d awing on da a and app oaches o he Global Bu den o
Disease p ojec [
38
], ep esen s 15 causes o age- and sex-speciﬁc mo ali y ac oss communi-
cable, non-communicable, and acciden and inju y ca ego ies, he eby p o iding he basis
o he compu a ion o li e expec ancy. The educa ion model ep esen s yea -speciﬁc en y
in o and ﬂow h ough p ima y, lowe -seconda y, uppe -seconda y, and e ia y educa ion;
he p og ession h ough hese le els eeds he yea s o schooling a ained by popula ion
coho s a pos -educa ional ages, and he demog aphic model ca ies age-speciﬁc educa ion
h ough he a iable li e spans o coho membe s. The economic and demog aphic models
de e mine GDP a PPP.
2.2. Scena ios
We explo e h ee scena ios aimed a e alua ing whe e we a e in e ms o p og ess
owa d he SDGs and how we can collec i ely begin o na ow he gap be ween he oad
we a e on and one ha achie es he SDG agenda. These scena ios a e modiﬁed om a se
o ou scena ios o iginally p oduced in 2020 and 2021 [
39
]. They ha e since been upda ed
and modiﬁed o eﬂec ecen da a and he li e a u e and un in an upda ed e sion o he
IFs model. See Table 1 and ollowing sec ions o a b ie desc ip ion o he h ee scena ios.
Due o signiﬁcan ola ili y in g ow h p ojec ions, Venezuela has been emo ed om he
coun y se o his s udy.
Table 1. Desc ip ion o scena ios used in his analysis.
Scena io Name Desc ip ion
No COVID-19
This scena io is a p ojec ion o he de elopmen pa h ha he wo ld was on
p io o he COVID-19 ou b eak.
Cu en Pa h The Cu en Pa h eﬂec s a baseline pa h o de elopmen in he u u e,
including he e ec o COVID-19.
SDG Push This scena io simula es an in eg a ed push owa d SDG achie emen
h ough ambi ious bu achie able global in e en ions.
2.2.1. Cu en Pa h
The Cu en Pa h can be hough o as he baseline de elopmen pa h, wi h he im-
pac s o COVID-19 bu wi hou addi ional majo shocks and wi hou ans o ma i e policy
change. Using he in e connec ed sub-models in IFs, his scena io eﬂec s a dynamic un old-
ing o de elopmen pa e ns wi hin and ac oss coun ies as well as sec o s. The Cu en Pa h
uses exogenously imposed GDP g ow h a e da a and p ojec ions om he la es e sion o
he IMF’s Wo ld Economic Ou look h ough o 2025 [
40
]. The Cu en Pa h in IFs has been
9
Sus ainabili y 2024,16, 3309
used widely in academic and policy-o ien ed wo k o desc ibe he pa h ha he wo ld is
cu en ly on [28,30,33].
2.2.2. No COVID-19
The No COVID-19 scena io se es as a coun e ac ual, simula ing he pa h we would be
on had he e been no COVID-19 ou b eak, and hus allows us o make a ough assessmen
o he pandemic impac on he goal pa h. I leans on he same logic ha in o ms he
Cu en Pa h scena io bu uses da a and p ojec ions made p io o he ou b eak o
COVID-19
.
GDP g ow h a e p ojec ions om he IMF Wo ld Economic Repo eleased in Oc obe
2019 [41] a e imposed exogenously h ough o 2025.
2.2.3. SDG Push
In he wake o he pandemic, UNDP [
23
] pu o h guidance on how he wo ld migh
no only eco e om he pandemic bu mo e beyond eco e y o accele a e p og ess
owa d he SDGs, deﬁning ou key a eas o esponse: go e nance (building a new social
con ac ), social p o ec ion (up oo ing inequali ies), g een economy ( ebalancing na u e,
clima e, economy), and digi al dis up ion and inno a ion ( o speed and scale). This SDG
Push scena io is based on ini ial wo k by Hughes e al. [
39
], o ien ed a ound he key a eas
ou lined by UNDP, and u he builds on wo k by Moye and Hedden [
42
]. Speciﬁc de ails
abou he indi idual scena io in e en ions and pa ame e changes wi hin IFs a e a ailable
in he Supplemen a y In o ma ion.
In his scena io, he wo ld pu sues a se o policies ha a e designed o u he sus-
ainable de elopmen wi hin plane a y bounda ies. Beginning wi h ag icul u al sys ems,
sus ainable de elopmen ans o ma ions include a shi away om mea -based die s o-
wa ds plan -based die s, an inc ease in ag icul u al yields, and a educ ion in loss (including
losses in p oduc ion, ansmission, and consump ion). In addi ion o he esul ing inc ease
in calo ic a ailabili y, we also assume an inc ease in he equi y o he dis ibu ion o calo ies,
a simula ion o cash ans e o ood subsidy p og ams. Go e nmen s inc easingly ocus
on p og ams ha a e co e o human de elopmen , boos ing spending on in as uc u e,
educa ion, heal h (including a ocus on amily planning), and R&D while also inc easing
household ans e s o wel a e and pensions. Households beneﬁ om expanded access
o sa e wa e , sani a ion, in o ma ion communica ion echnology, and access o elec ici y
as well as a educ ion in adi ional cooks o es. While go e nmen spending is impo -
an , go e nmen s in his scena io also imp o e he e ﬁcacy o his spending along wi h
inc easingly democ a ic ins i u ions.
The scena io also simula es a ans o ma ion in ene gy sys ems by implemen ing a
p og essi e ca bon ax ( o USD 200 pe on o OECD coun ies and USD 50 o non-OECD
coun ies), a p og essi e educ ion in ene gy demand (g ea e and mo e apid in OECD
coun ies han in non-OECD coun ies), and imp o emen s in ene gy e ﬁciency. Fu u e
coal p oduc ion is cons ained while enewable ene gy de elopmen and in es men is
accele a ed. Fu he en i onmen al policies educe o e all wa e demand ela i e o he
Cu en Pa h, educe u ban ai pollu an s, and inc ease o es ed land.
The cumula i e e ec o hese in e en ions is o make de elopmen less ca bon
in ensi e, mo e e ﬁcien , and less was e ul, while also poin ing esou ces owa ds a eas o
in es men ha a e c ucial o mul idimensional human wellbeing.
3. Resul s
The ollowing sec ions include he esul s o all h ee scena ios ac oss h ee key
ou come indica o s: he popula ion in ex eme po e y, he unde nou ished popula ion,
and he Human De elopmen Index.
3.1. Po e y
The elimina ion o po e y is he ﬁ s SDG (SDG 1) and highly connec ed o many o
he o he s. He e, we ocus on he in e na ional ex eme po e y line o USD 2.15/day using
10
Sus ainabili y 2024,16, 3309
2017 US dolla s a pu chasing powe pa i y. Fo his analysis, a coun y o egion is said o
ha e elimina ed ex eme po e y i he po ion o he popula ion li ing below he ex eme
po e y line alls below 3 pe cen . Full global esul s a e a ailable in Table 2.
Table 2.
Resul s by scena io o SDG 1.1, using he pe cen o he popula ion li ing on less han USD
2.15/day in 2017 US dolla s. Sou ce: IFs 8.10.
2019 2019 2030 2030 2050 2050
Scena io Global Value Coun ies
Mee ing Ta ge Global Value Coun ies
Mee ing Ta ge Global Value Coun ies
Mee ing Ta ge
No COVID-19 9 102 6.8 113 2.8 140
Cu en Pa h 9 102 7.5 107 3.1 139
SDG Push 9 102 6.6 117 1.5 159
E en p io o he ou b eak o COVID-19, he wo ld was no on ack o mee SDG 1.
Globally, an es ima ed 9 pe cen o he popula ion (798 million people) li ed in ex eme
po e y. Along he No COVID-19 ajec o y, po e y was expec ed o decline g adually.
In his scena io, 6.6 pe cen o he popula ion (578 million) would s ill li e in ex eme
po e y in 2030. By 2050, he wo ld a a global le el jus mee s he a ge , wi h 2.8 pe cen
o he wo ld (269 million). A a coun y le el, 102 coun ies a e es ima ed o ha e al eady
me he SDG a ge in 2019. By 2050, hey would be joined by an addi ional 37 coun ies
achie ing he goal.
Along he Cu en Pa h a ec ed by COVID-19, slowed economic g ow h esul ed
in an inc ease in po e y ha could con inue o a ec p og ess owa d SDG 1 o some
ime. In 2020 alone, we es ima e an inc ease in he ex eme po e y a e o 1 pe cen age
poin , eﬂec ing nea ly 80 million people pushed in o ex eme po e y by he pandemic
in ha yea . This is a sligh ly g ea e e ec han seen in p e ious wo k es ima ing he
e ec o COVID-19 on po e y using he IFs model (an es ima ed 73.9 million) [
43
] and
he Wo ld Bank (es ima ing o e 70 million) [
44
] and somewha less han an es ima es by
Labo de e al. [
14
] in he mos ecen wo k by Mahle e al. [
3
], which ﬁnds a COVID-19-
induced inc ease in ex eme po e y o 1.2 pe cen age poin s (90 million). As he economy
ebounded somewha , we o ecas po e y educ ions a e he ini ial yea , bu hese
imp o emen s will emain slow and behind he No COVID-19 coun e ac ual. By 2030,
we p ojec 7.5 pe cen o he popula ion (635 million) in ex eme po e y, s ill nea ly
57 million mo e han he No COVID-19 scena io in he same yea (Figu e 1). By 2050,
he wo ld jus misses eaching he a ge , wi h 3.1 pe cen o he popula ion (298 million)
s ill in po e y.
In he SDG Push, po e y educ ion accele a es as a esul o in e en ions which boos
g ow h and sus ainable de elopmen . The po e y a e in he SDG Push scena io alls
below ha in he No COVID-19 wo ld by 2029. By 2030, he ex eme po e y a e eaches
6.6 pe cen (499 million people in ex eme po e y, which is 81 million ewe han in he
Cu en Pa h headcoun ). Global ex eme po e y alls below 3 pe cen by 2042, and by 2050,
i alls o 1.5 pe cen (104 million, o 137 million ewe han in he Cu en Pa h). Along he
Cu en Pa h, he global po e y a e is p ojec ed o emain abo e 3 pe cen h ough he
ho izon chosen o his analysis.
A a egional le el, sub-Saha an A ica is home o he mos people li ing in ex eme
po e y, wi h an es ima ed 404 million in 2019. Bu he e ec o COVID-19 in he egion
was no as se e e as in Cen al and Sou he n Asia, whe e 46 million people we e pushed
in o ex eme po e y due o COVID-19 in 2020, compa ed wi h jus unde 20 million in
SSA (Figu e 2). Howe e , in he ollowing yea s, he po e y di e ence in he CSA egion
is expec ed o all, while in he SSA egion i emains ela i ely s eady, eﬂec ing as e
popula ion g ow h in he sub-Saha an A ica egion.
11

Sus ainabili y 2024,16, 3309
Figu e 1.
Pe cen o wo ld popula ion li ing on less han USD 2.15/day ac oss scena ios. Sou ce:
IFs 8.10.
Figu e 2.
Di e ence be ween he numbe o people in po e y in he Cu en Pa h scena io and he
No COVID-19 scena io, by egion. Sou ce: IFs 8.10.
Figu e 3 shows he a e o ex eme po e y by egion ac oss all h ee scena ios in
2030 and 2050. The SDG Push begins o imp o e ex eme po e y in egions whe e i is
he mos p e alen ela i e o he Cu en Pa h. In Eu ope and No he n Ame ica (ENA),
La in Ame ica and he Ca ibbean (LAC), and sub-Saha an A ica (SSA), he SDG Push
makes up o he di e ence be ween he Cu en Pa h and No COVID-19 scena ios by 2030,
while in o he s—Cen al and Sou he n Asia (CSA), Eas e n and Sou h-Eas e n Asia (ESEA),
12
Sus ainabili y 2024,16, 3309
No he n A ica and Wes e n Asia (NAWA), and Oceania— he SDG Push s ill lags behind
he No COVID-19 scena io (Figu e 3a).
(a) (b)
Figu e 3.
(
a
) Pe cen o popula ion li ing on less han USD 2.15/day ac oss scena ios by egion in
2030. Sou ce: IFs 8.10. (
b
) Pe cen o popula ion li ing on less han USD 2.15/day ac oss scena ios by
egion in 2050. Sou ce: IFs 8.10.
By 2050, he SDG Push esul s in a signiﬁcan decline in po e y a es ac oss egions
(Figu e 3b). The SDG 1 goal o elimina ing ex eme po e y is achie ed in all egions excep
SSA, whe e he po e y a e is s ill oughly hal ha p ojec ed along he Cu en Pa h.
The e a e a ious mechanisms in he SDG Push scena io ha imp o e po e y ou -
comes ela i e o he Cu en Pa h. Go e nmen ans e p og ams boos incomes di ec ly,
while a numbe o in e en ions also wo k o alle ia e po e y indi ec ly h ough imp o e-
men s o he economy and human de elopmen . Family planning p og ams educe he
u u e in es men equi ed o achie e simila ou comes in a eas o educa ion and heal h,
d i ing up human wellbeing and p omo ing p oduc i i y gains. Go e nmen spending is
eo ien ed owa ds educa ion, heal h, in as uc u e, and R&D sec o s, leading o g ea e
long- e m gains in mul idimensional de elopmen . Mo e e ﬁcien use o ag icul u al and
ene gy esou ces also unlocks economic gains ha acili a e educ ions in po e y. This com-
bina ion o di ec and indi ec in e en ions leads o a i uous cycle owa ds he e adica ion
o po e y.
3.2. Malnu i ion
SDG 2 is o “End hunge , achie e ood secu i y and imp o ed nu i ion and p o-
mo e sus ainable ag icul u e” and a ge s ange om ensu ing ood access o ulne able
popula ions o measu es add essing ag icul u al in es men s and ade. Fo his analy-
sis, we ocus mo e na owly on popula ion-wide unde nu i ion. Full global esul s a e
a ailable in Table 3.
P io o he ou b eak o COVID-19, we es ima e ha jus unde 8 pe cen o he global
popula ion (612 million people) su e ed om malnu i ion and ha 67 coun ies had
al eady me he SDG 2.1 goal o Ze o Hunge . In a No COVID-19 wo ld, we p ojec ha
malnu i ion would con inue o all bu would no achie e he goal a a global le el. By 2030,
s ill mo e han 5 pe cen o he popula ion (445 million) would su e om malnu i ion,
wi h 95 coun ies mee ing he a ge o 3 pe cen . A a global le el, he a ge would be
13
Sus ainabili y 2024,16, 3309
achie ed by 2044, and by midcen u y, he malnou ished po ion o he popula ion would
all o 2.1 pe cen (203 million people).
Table 3.
Resul s by scena io o SDG 2.1, using he pe cen o he popula ion su e ing om malnu i-
ion. Sou ce: IFs 8.10.
2019 2019 2030 2030 2050 2050
Scena io Global Value Coun ies
Mee ing Ta ge Global Value Coun ies
Mee ing Ta ge Global Value Coun ies
Mee ing Ta ge
No COVID-19 7.9 67 5.3 95 2.1 134
Cu en Pa h 7.9 67 5.4 89 2.2 133
SDG Push 7.9 67 4.3 106 0.8 164
The COVID-19 ou b eak in 2020 educed economic g ow h globally and inc eased
bo h po e y and hunge . We es ima e ha in 2020, he a e o malnu i ion inc eased
by nea ly 0.5 pe cen age poin s o 37 million people ela i e o a No COVID-19 scena io
(Figu e 4). As he wo ld eco e ed om ha ini ial shock, hunge began o all again bu
emained highe han i would ha e been o he wise. By 2030, 15 million mo e people a e
p ojec ed o be malnou ished in he Cu en Pa h scena io compa ed o a No COVID-19
wo ld. By 2050, 6.6 million mo e people a e s ill p ojec ed o su e om malnu i ion as
a esul o he shadow o he pandemic.
Figu e 4. Pe cen o popula ion malnou ished, ac oss he wo ld, ac oss scena ios. Sou ce: IFs 8.10.
Howe e , in an SDG Push wo ld, mul iple in e en ions a e made o add ess hunge
h ough bo h ood supply and accessibili y. By 2030, global malnu i ion is educed by
1.1 pe cen age poin s compa ed o he Cu en Pa h, and by 2035 he global malnu i ion
a e alls below 3 pe cen , en yea s be o e i is p ojec ed o in he Cu en Pa h. By 2050,
he malnou ished popula ion alls o 0.8 pe cen (77 million) and 164 coun ies ha e me
he SDG 2.1 a ge —31 mo e han a e p ojec ed o do so in he Cu en Pa h.
As in po e y, CSA is he egion ha expe ienced he la ges inc ease in malnou ish-
men due o COVID-19 (Figu e 5). In 2020, he Cu en Pa h eﬂec s an addi ional 22 million
14
Sus ainabili y 2024,16, 3309
people in he egion pushed in o malnu i ion compa ed wi h a No COVID-19 scena io
(Figu e 5), ollowed by SSA wi h jus o e 6 million. By 2050, he COVID-19 e ec is no
as la ge bu s ill a nea ly 5 million malnou ished people, while he e ec in SSA alls o
mee ha o many o he egions. Howe e , he e ec also emains signiﬁcan in NAWA,
whe e o e 2 million mo e people emain malnou ished in 2050 in he Cu en Pa h.
Figu e 5.
Di e ence be ween he numbe o people wi h malnu i ion in he Cu en Pa h scena io
and he No COVID-19 scena io, by egion. Sou ce: IFs 8.10.
The SDG Push scena io simula es a g adual inc ease in equali y o access o calo ies
among o he in e en ions. E en by 2030, he SDG Push esul s in a educ ion in he a e o
malnu i ion below ha in he No COVID-19 scena io in all egions (Figu e 6a).
(a) (b)
Figu e 6.
(
a
) Pe cen o popula ion su e ing om malnu i ion ac oss scena ios by egion in 2030.
Sou ce: IFs 8.10. (
b
) Pe cen o popula ion su e ing om malnu i ion scena ios by egion in 2050.
Sou ce: IFs 8.10.
15
Sus ainabili y 2024,16, 3309
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22

Ci a ion: Mes dagh, B.; Sempiga, O.;
Van Liedeke ke, L. The Impac o
Ex e nal Shocks on he Sus ainable
De elopmen Goals (SDGs): Linking
he COVID-19 Pandemic o SDG
Implemen a ion a he Local
Go e nmen Le el. Sus ainabili y
2023,15, 6234. h ps://doi.o g/
10.3390/su15076234
Academic Edi o s: ¸S e an C is ian
Ghe ghina and Liliana Nicole a
Simionescu
Recei ed: 24 Feb ua y 2023
Re ised: 27 Ma ch 2023
Accep ed: 2 Ap il 2023
Published: 4 Ap il 2023
Copy igh : © 2023 by he au ho s.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Swi ze land.
This a icle is an open access a icle
dis ibu ed unde he e ms and
condi ions o he C ea i e Commons
A ibu ion (CC BY) license (h ps://
c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/
4.0/).
sus ainabili y
A icle
The Impac o Ex e nal Shocks on he Sus ainable De elopmen
Goals (SDGs): Linking he COVID-19 Pandemic o SDG
Implemen a ion a he Local Go e nmen Le el
Bjö n Mes dagh *, Oli ie Sempiga and Luc Van Liedeke ke
Depa men o Managemen , Uni e si y o An we p, P inss aa 13, 2000 An we p, Belgium
*Co espondence: [email p o ec ed]
Abs ac :
Using da a om a su ey we conduc ed in collabo a ion wi h he Associa ion o Flemish
Ci ies and Municipali ies (VVSG), his a icle sough o examine he e ec s o he COVID-19 pandemic
on he implemen a ion o SDGs by Flemish local go e nmen s (ci ies and municipali ies). Iden i ying
such e ec s has usually been conduc ed on indi iduals and a a mac o le el and no a he o ganiza ion
and local go e nmen le el. By using a coun e ac ual app oach, we we e able o disen angle a ious
COVID-19 e ec s o e ime and lea n how sys ems a he local le el eac o ex e nal shocks. The
app oach allowed us o single ou he e ec s o he pandemic a he o ganiza ional le el while looking
in o h ee dis inc pe iods: be o e he pandemic, du ing he pandemic, and in i s a e ma h. Resul s
showed ha he COVID-19 pandemic slowed down he Flemish public sec o ’s implemen a ion o
SDGs a he local le el. A he same ime, COVID-19 allowed local public ins i u ions o accele a e
he implemen a ion o a ew SDGs (e.g., SDG1, SDG3) and o pos pone a ew SDG- ela ed ac i i ies
which would be esumed once he pandemic is ‘o e ’. COVID-19 is no only a challenge; i ac s as a
wake-up call and an oppo uni y o commi mo e owa ds he implemen a ion o (ce ain) SDGs.
Keywo ds:
UN sus ainable de elopmen goals (SDGs); COVID-19; SDG implemen a ion; local
go e nmen s
1. In oduc ion
The COVID-19 pandemic has impac ed social, economic, and en i onmen al sys ems
wo ldwide, slowing down and e e sing he p og ess made in achie ing he Sus ainable
De elopmen Goals (SDGs) [
1
]. While some SDGs ha e been di ec ly and hugely impac ed,
o he s ha e been indi ec ly a ec ed by he global pandemic eme gency [
2
,
3
]. A some
poin , he pandemic b ough he ad ancemen o Agenda 2030 o a s ands ill and, as a
esul , has pu se ious doub on he achie emen o SDGs [
4
]. Mos o he exis ing esea ch
examines he e ec s o COVID-19 on SDGs a an indi idual le el [
5
], while o he s udies
ocus on a mac o le el [
6
]. Acco ding o he C isis in Con ex Theo y (CCT), he way
indi iduals eac o ex e nal shocks is di e en om he eac ions o he sys em, as bo h
en i ies o m di e en laye s in a c isis model [
7
]. While i is impo an o analyze each
laye in ol ed in he c isis, he e is li le e idence on how he COVID-19 pandemic has
s alled he implemen a ion o he SDGs a he o ganiza ional le el and how o ganiza ions
eac ed o he pandemic. We ﬁlled his gap in he li e a u e by examining whe he and o
wha ex en COVID-19 has a ec ed local go e nmen s’ SDG implemen a ion.
A g owing body o esea ch has al eady explo ed he ela ionship be ween COVID-19
and SDGs [
8
–
10
]. While some s udies sugges ha COVID-19 measu es ha e b ough a
ew posi i e impac s on he en i onmen , o example, by educing ai pollu an s and
g eenhouse gas emissions [
11
,
12
], o he esea ch gi es a ha sh judgmen on he impac o
COVID-19 on SDGs by claiming ha COVID-19 has o n o sh eds sus ained economic
g ow h and globaliza ion, he wo big assump ions on which SDGs’ success we e buil [
8
].
Speciﬁcally, ollowing he sh inking o he global economy, di e en SDGs we e nega i ely
Sus ainabili y 2023,15, 6234. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/su15076234 h ps://www.mdpi.com/jou nal/sus ainabili y
23
Sus ainabili y 2023,15, 6234
a ec ed [
3
,
5
]. Howe e , since mos o hese s udies ocused hei main a en ion on how
indi iduals we e a ec ed by COVID-19, we based ou analysis on o ganiza ions. Building
on ea lie insigh s, we emb aced a no el pe spec i e in ou esea ch by in es iga ing how
he local public sec o was hinde ed by COVID-19 in i s e o s o implemen SDGs. This
app oach allows us o gain a deepe unde s anding o how local public ins i u ions may no
only ha e been p e en ed om pu suing hei e o s o achie e he Agenda 2030 bu a e
also likely o ha e shi ed hei p io i ies o espond o he challenges p esen ed o hem by
he pandemic, he eby accele a ing on some SDGs. We examined how and o wha ex en
public o ganiza ions (ins i u ions) a he local le el adjus ed hei s a egies o espond o
he c isis. Du ing global shocks, o ganiza ions eac di e en ly, and hence i makes sense o
in es iga e o ganiza ional beha io s when aced wi h c ises.
Fu he mo e, esea ch has poin ed ou ha COVID-19 delayed he achie emen o
some SDGs. Fo ins ance, i e e sed app oxima ely a decade in he wo ld’s p og ess in
educing po e y [
13
–
15
]. I also slowed down he p og ess made in he a ea o heal h [
5
].
This u he wa an s ou ocus on he impac o COVID-19 on SDGs and how ins i u ions
eac ed o he c isis by shi ing p io i ies. A heo y sugges s ha “Only a c isis—ac ual
o pe cei ed—p oduces eal change. When ha c isis occu s, he ac ions ha a e aken
depend on he ideas ha a e lying a ound” [
16
] (p. 7). Faced wi h he pandemic, local
go e nmen s we e o ced o espond wi hin hei capaci y and we e some imes obliged
o shi p io i ies away om he usual ac ions. Because o hei limi ed explo a ion o he
e o s o he public sec o in achie ing SDGs, ea lie s udies ailed o app ecia e how public
ins i u ions adap ed hei s a egies and how SDG ools helped hem o na iga e h ough
he pandemic wi hou abandoning hei e o s and engagemen wi h SDG implemen a ion.
The consequences o COVID-19 on SDGs called o ganiza ions in o ac ion o p omp
measu es [
3
]. Building u he on hese insigh s, ou s udy showed ha some o ganiza ions
ceased he ‘oppo uni y’ o e ed by he COVID-19 c isis o accele a e hei implemen a ion
o a numbe o SDGs and we e building on his momen um in he a e ma h o he pandemic.
Consequen ly, we aimed o gain a be e unde s anding o he ela ionship be ween he wo
a iables by analyzing how local go e nmen s’ implemen a ions o SDGs we e hinde ed o
encou aged by COVID-19. To unde s and go e nmen al ins i u ions’ SDG implemen a ion
e o s and ac i i ies, we pa ly based ou analysis on he SDG compass, which is a ool
ha di e en o ganiza ions u ilize o apply SDGs a hei le els. Meanwhile, he e is li le
esea ch on public ins i u ions, especially a he local le el is-à- is COVID-19 and SDGs,
despi e his being a opical issue in public adminis a ion.
Relying on da a om a su ey we de eloped and conduc ed in July 2021 in collabo a-
ion wi h he VVSG ( he Associa ion o Flemish Ci ies and Municipali ies), we in es iga ed
how Flemish public o ganiza ions’ SDG implemen a ion ac i i ies and e o s we e ham-
pe ed by COVID-19. This p o ided us a be e pic u e o how much he implemen a ion
o some SDGs was pu on hold o ocus on mo e u gen SDGs. We ob ained insigh s on
how local public ins i u ions in Flande s ( egion ha is pa o he ede al s a e o Belgium
and has i s own assigned powe s, which we e g an ed by he ede al cons i u ion. Flande s
exe cises hese powe s (e.g., cul u al ma e s, wel a e, educa ion, economic ma e s, e c.)
au onomously acco ding o he p inciple o ede al loyal y. Flande s has ﬁ e p o inces
and 300 ci ies and municipali ies wi h ju isdic ion o e a gi en e i o y. These local go -
e nmen s a e au onomous on he one hand, and on he o he hand, hey a e pa o he
s a e (coadminis a ion). These adminis a ions also ha e an open manda e, which means,
among o he hings, ha hey can ake hei own ini ia i e in many ma e s and le y hei
own axes. Fo hese easons, manda a ies a e also di ec ly elec ed a his le el. Municipal
powe s a e e y b oad and include e e y hing ela ed o he “municipal in e es ,” in o he
wo ds, he collec i e needs o esiden s. In heo y, a ci y/municipali y in Flande s can do
any hing as long as i is no p ohibi ed. Ju isdic ion includes public wo ks, social assis ance,
law en o cemen , housing, educa ion, e c.) may ha e shi ed p io i ies o espond be e o
he c isis and may ha e come ou o he c isis mo e equipped o pu sue e o s o achie e
he Agenda 2030.
24
Sus ainabili y 2023,15, 6234
The emainde o his a icle is o ganized as ollows. In Sec ion 1, we discuss he
li e a u e ega ding he impac o he COVID-19 pandemic on SDGs and elabo a e on
subsequen hypo heses. Building on he li e a u e, we de elop ou a gumen on whe he
and o wha deg ee COVID-19 impac s SDG implemen a ion in he public sec o a he
local le el. In Sec ion 2, we show how da a we e collec ed and analyzed, while in Sec ion 3,
he esul s a e discussed and analyzed. Finally, Sec ion 4 concludes wi h a discussion and
ou lines possibili ies o u u e esea ch on he hemes discussed in he pape .
2. Li e a u e Re iew and Hypo heses
Al hough SDGs a e a ecen phenomenon, he e is a g owing body o esea ch de el-
oped on he impac o COVID-19 on SDGs [
17
]. The pandemic is likely o ha e h ea ened
SDG achie emen scheduled in 2030 [
18
]. The SDG implemen a ion p ocess is a key s ep
because he Agenda 2030 amewo k may lead o di e en sus ainabili y ou comes, depend-
ing on how i is implemen ed by he di e se se o compe en agen s [
19
–
21
]. Mazmanian
and Saba ie [
22
] (p. 20) deﬁned implemen a ion as “ he ca ying ou o a basic policy
decision, usually inco po a ed in a s a u e bu which can also ake he o m o impo an
execu i e o de s”. As a policy decision, SDGs iden i y he p oblem(s) o be add essed,
s ipula e he objec i e(s) o be pu sued, and s uc u e he implemen a ion p ocess. We
ega ded SDGs as a uni e sal p ojec o end po e y, p o ec he plane , and imp o e he
li es and li elihoods o e e yone e e ywhe e [23].
Since he adop ion o SDGs in 2015, p i a e and public ins i u ions a di e en le -
els ha e been encou aged o join hands in implemen ing SDGs. E alua ing coun ies’
ajec o y, mac o-le el esea ch has classiﬁed na ions in o ﬁ e ca ego ies in ligh o hei
SDG implemen a ion p ocess: “dec easing” (coun y sco e is mo ing away om SDG
achie emen ), “s agna ing” (coun y sco e emains s agnan o is imp o ing a a a e below
50% o wha is needed o SDG achie emen by 2030), “mode a ely inc easing” (coun y
sco e is inc easing a a a e abo e 50% bu below he a e needed o SDG achie emen
by 2030), “on ack” (sco e is imp o ing a he a e needed o SDG achie emen by 2030),
“main aining goal achie emen ” (coun y sco e is on he le el and emains a o abo e
SDG achie emen ) [
24
]. We buil on hese insigh s o check he ajec o y o he SDG imple-
men a ion p ocess among public o ganiza ions a he local le el ha o m an impo an
pa o he na ional e o . We belie e ha local go e nmen s a e he key implemen e s o
policy decisions and p oduce he ou comes o hose decisions in he go e nance p ocess. I
is a his le el ha all ac ions ake place [
25
], and hence we ﬁnd i impo an o s udy he
local le el.
3. De e mining he E ec s o he COVID-19 Pandemic on SDG Implemen a ion
3.1. The Slowdown E ec : COVID-19 Slowed down O ganiza ions’ SDG Implemen a ion
in Gene al
Since hei adop ion in 2015, many SDGs (e.g., economic g ow h, educa ion o all,
and po e y educ ion) ha e expe ienced ela i e p og ess. The sp ead o COVID-19 seems
o ha e changed he scena io. Based on he Uni ed Na ions epo [
26
], Fallah Shayan
e al. [
5
] demons a ed how COVID-19 had d ama ically dis up ed he dec easing numbe
o poo people. Due o he wo ldwide dis up ion o he economy and ood supply chain,
mo e people ha e su e ed om malnu i ion. Simila ly, ollowing school closu es du ing
lockdowns, so many s uden s did no ha e basic equipmen o access o a end online
schools and may ha e allen behind [
5
]. In a pa icula way, he COVID-19 pandemic
is a majo economic shock ha has al eady inc eased economic insecu i y, pa icula ly
o less educa ed people [
27
,
28
]. The economic insecu i y was ansla ed in o job- ela ed
dis up ions, including losing a job, a educ ion in wo king hou s, o a all in income o
millions o people [29].
While some s udies in es iga e he pandemic’s social, economic, and en i onmen al
impac s sepa a ely o only ocus on a ew SDGs [
30
–
34
], o he s udies ocus on all 17 goals,
he eby gi ing a holis ic pic u e [
5
,
35
]. In addi ion, mos o hese s udies ocus hei s udies
25
Sus ainabili y 2023,15, 6234
on how COVID-19 has an e ec on indi iduals. These s udies main ain ha he economic
c isis ha ollowed he pandemic is es ima ed o ha e ﬂung 400 million people below he
$1.90 po e y line [
14
,
15
], while he numbe o people who a e likely o ace acu e ood
sho ages highly inc eased du ing he pandemic [36].
Al hough he e is a lo o esea ch on how COVID-19 a ec s he indi idual in ela ion
o SDGs, comp ehensi e s udies on he pandemic’s impac s (bo h nega i e and posi i e)
a e s ill lacking in he con ex o impac s on o ganiza ions. Theo ies show ha he e is mo e
han a su ace laye o impac o e e y c isis. Besides indi iduals being a ec ed, sys ems,
subsys ems, and s akeholde s ge a ec ed [
7
]. Acco dingly, ou analysis concen a ed on
he o ganiza ional le el a he han he indi idual le el. Al hough we acknowledged ha
SDGs a e gene ally mean o se e he well-being o indi iduals, o ganiza ions play a key
ole in SDG achie emen h ough hei in es men in SDGs and in policy implemen a ion
ha is speciﬁc o SDGs [
37
]. The success o he ailu e o SDGs, o ha ma e , is mainly
dependen on he way di e en ins i u ions manage o in es ime, ene gy, and money in
he SDG p ojec bea ing in mind he e ec s o ex e nal en i onmen al ac o s (i.e., economic
c isis, COVID-19). Mo eo e , he conc e e ealiza ion o SDGs is impeded by how hey a e
implemen ed by a di e se se o compe en agen s [
23
]. Ou in en ion was no o add ess
he ecip ocal e ec s o c ises on indi iduals and o ganiza ions bu speciﬁcally on how
local public o ganiza ions a e a ec ed. O ganiza ions also play a key ole in he ealiza ion
o Agenda 2030 h ough a ious SDG implemen a ion ac i i ies [
38
]. Fo example, he ci y
o An we p has aken di e en ini ia i es o con ibu e o p o ec ing he en i onmen . One
o he ini ia i es is called “Clima e S ee s” and has seen he ci y esiden s wo k hand in
hand wi h local eams o g een up he s ee s wi h mo e plan s and na u al ea u es. This
ini ia i e ha began in 2017 is abou using pe meable ma e ials and ainwa e eco e y o
cope wi h ﬂooding and g eene y o cope wi h hea s ess du ing ho summe s ha ha e
become mo e o a eali y in ecen yea s [
39
]. Li e a u e shows ha he public sec o is
speciﬁcally called upon o implemen di e en policy ins umen s so as o ensu e wide
access o public se ices, adop policies and s a egies o achie e ce ain SDGs such as
gende equali y (SDG5) and job c ea ion and en ep eneu ship (SDG8), and in es esou ces
in di e en ins umen al a eas, such as in esea ch and inno a ion (SDG9) and mul isec o
pa ne ships (SDG17) [
40
]. Hö isch [
18
] main ains ha he pandemic has been ound o
se e ely h ea en he achie emen o he SDGs by shi ing a en ion away om he many
p io challenges o sus ainable de elopmen .
P io esea ch shows ha he pandemic has had di e en deg ees o ypes o impac on
SDG implemen a ion. I has nega i ely impac ed mos SDGs in he sho e m. Pa icula ly,
he a ge s o SDG1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 13 ha e and will con inue o ha e weakly o
mode a ely nega i e impac s o wha some schola s e m es ic ing impac s. Al hough
mos o hese impac s a e likely o be sho - e m, hese impac s add new challenges in
achie ing hose SDGs by 2030 [
34
]. Acco ding o he o ganiza ional esilience heo y [
41
]
and o ganiza ional imp o isa ion heo y [
42
], o ganiza ions a e na u ally endowed wi h
esilience o ex e nal shocks and can adap o a as -changing en i onmen , bu o gani-
za ions adap di e en ly depending on a ious ac o s (i.e., he s eng h o employees,
he s eng h o adap i e models al eady in place, subs an ial in es men du ing no mal
imes). COVID-19 appea ed o be oo s ong o a numbe o o ganiza ions because hey
did no ha e mechanisms in place o adap and o be esilien o ex e nal shocks and hence
saw hei implemen a ion ac i i ies slow down. Simul aneously, COVID-19 has exposed
he agili y o he 2030 Agenda, especially whe e o ganiza ions ha e a ole o play. I
COVID-19 has slowed he SDG p ojec u he , we expec ha he pandemic will ha e
some nega i e impac s on he SDGs a he o ganiza ional le el by slowing down local
go e nmen ’s SDG implemen a ion. The e o e, we hypo hesized ha :
Hypo hesis 1 (H1).
Local go e nmen s’ implemen a ion o he SDGs signiﬁcan ly slowed down
due o he COVID-19 c isis.
26
Sus ainabili y 2023,15, 6234
3.2. The P io i iza ion and Accele a ion E ec : COVID-19 Led O ganiza ions o P io i ize Some
SDGs and o Accele a e Thei O ganiza ional Implemen a ion
Sunny e al. [
34
] con ended ha a ew a ge s o SDG2, 3, 6, and 11 could ha e beneﬁ ed
om he posi i e impac s o he pandemic. These mini-impac s a e called weakly p omo ing
impac s. O he s call hese a e e ec oppo uni ies [
8
]. E en hough he pandemic has had
de as a ing impac s on some SDGs, su p isingly, o he SDGs ha e beneﬁ ed om he c isis.
Fo ins ance, COVID-19 p o ided hope in oppo uni ies o acili a ing he achie emen o
SDG13 (clima e ac ion). COVID-19 measu es aken by go e nmen s in he ﬁgh agains
COVID-19 (i.e., lockdowns) ha e also b ough a ew posi i e impac s on he en i onmen
by, o example, educing ai pollu an s and g eenhouse gas emissions [11,12].
The pandemic has also opened a sho -li ed and na ow window o oppo uni ies o
sus ainable ans o ma ion. The ans o ma i e oppo uni ies consis o lessons lea ned o
planning and ac ions, socio-economic eco e y plans, he use o in o ma ion and communi-
ca ion echnologies and he digi al economy, e e se mig a ion and “b ain gain,” and local
go e nmen s’ exe cising au ho i ies [
34
]. Fu he mo e, al hough he pandemic will ha e
es ic ing impac s on mos SDGs in he sho e m, hese es ic ing impac s may subside
in he medium and long e m and may e en esul in some p omo ing impac s. These
p omo ing impac s a e expec ed ﬁ s o all because some coun ies would ca ch up wi h he
ongoing p og ess in achie ing he SDGs and u ilize he gene a ed ans o ma i e oppo u-
ni ies once he pandemic is unde con ol [
34
]. Secondly, ans o ma i e oppo uni ies a e
expec ed because SDGs a e in e connec ed and in e linked. This means ha “implemen ing
he 2030 Agenda will b ing abou syne gies—i.e., si ua ions in which achie emen s on one
goal con ibu e owa ds p og ess on o he goals” [43] (p. 6).
O ganiza ion heo ies and c isis heo ies show ha ins i u ions and humani y lea n
om he c isis and adop mo e e ec i e measu es. The ﬁnancial c isis o 2007–2008 has
inc eased awa eness abou he epe cussions ha weak co po a e go e nance and isk
managemen p ac ices can ha e on ﬁnancial ma ke s and he wo ld’s economy. The
challenges en ailed in he clima e change p ocess and he deple ion o na u al esou ces
(as well as ai and wa e pollu ion and biodi e si y loss) ha e inc eased demand o mo e
esponsible beha io and coo dina ion a he global le el om bo h public and p i a e
economic o ganiza ions [
3
]. As a consequence, many o ganiza ions ha e pu e o s in o
socially esponsible in es men (SRI). Adop ing SRI is one way o educe he nega i e
impac on socie y as a whole, he eby making changes and con ibu ing o he ills ha
ha e been a ec ing human li es o many yea s and accele a ing on SDG p ojec [
37
].
Fo o ganiza ions, p io i iza ion is ecognized in academic and p ac i ione li e a u e as a
c ucial ini ial s ep, as i enables ocusing on a educed se o p io i ies, hus making SDG
implemen a ion mo e e ec i e and manageable [
40
]. The pandemic and i s consequences
esul ed in an inc eased ocus on heal hca e sys ems, in o ma ion and communica ion
echnologies (ICTs), and he digi al economy [
34
]. A he local le el, he inc eased ocus
is likely o be in line wi h he indica o s o Eu opean ci ies o assess and moni o he
UN SDGs. Fo ins ance, many ci ies in Flande s sensi ized esiden s on he beneﬁ s o
COVID-19 accina ion and p o ided hei halls o acili a e accina ions, and in es ed mo e
money o help in he accina ion campaign. I a numbe o SDGs beneﬁ ed om global
shocks and c ises and go p io i ized, we expec ed ha in hei esponse o he pandemic
and i s consequences, he public sec o would wi ness a ce ain deg ee o accele a ion in i s
implemen a ion in ce ain SDG a eas. The e o e, ou nex hypo hesis is:
Hypo hesis 2 (H2).
Due o COVID-19, some SDGs we e p io i ized, and consequen ly, local
go e nmen s’ implemen a ion o hese SDGs go accele a ed.
3.3. The Pos ponemen E ec : Du ing COVID-19, O ganiza ions Pos poned Some SDG
Implemen a ion-Rela ed Ac i i ies
Following he de as a ing impac s o he COVID-19 pandemic on SDGs and he appa -
en impossibili y o eaching he Agenda 2030, a ious esea che s, as well as p ac i ione s,
27

Sus ainabili y 2023,15, 6234
ha e called on he UN o e hink he wo ld’s sus ainable de elopmen s a egy. Fo ins ance,
ollowing he slowdown o p og ess on he SDGs due o COVID-19, Naidoo and Fishe [
8
]
a gued ha he wo ld needs o deﬁne p io i ies be e and p obably ocus on a ew b oad
s a egic goals a he han all 17 SDGs. A Na u e edi o ial wen u he o p oclaim ha i is
ime o e ise SDGs in o de o make he goals mo e achie able [
44
]. Those who called o
e ision we e awa e ha i is no jus he COVID-19 c isis ha made SDGs beyond ou each.
The SDG p ojec was all along slow and impossible o achie e. Repo s on he ﬁ s phase
o he SDG agenda (2015–2020) showed unequi ocally ha p og ess owa d achie ing
he SDGs had been slow in all pa s o he wo ld p io o he COVID-19 c isis [
24
,
26
,
45
].
Howe e , his did no emo e he ac ha he ad en o COVID-19 wo sened he si ua ion.
Since he COVID-19 pandemic a ec ed he plane , he Uni ed Na ions aised he
s akes o SDGs by iewing i as i al o COVID-19 eco e y, which leads o g eene ,
mo e inclusi e economies and s onge , mo e esilien socie ies [
45
]. The e is a s ong
con ic ion ha achie ing he SDGs would b ing abou a sa e , mo e s able wo ld wi h ewe
na u al and manmade haza ds, hus lowe ing he likelihood o u u e c ises occu ing [
10
].
Backsliding on he p og ess al eady made on he SDGs no only impe ils p ospec s o
e adica ing basic dep i a ions bu also educes esilience o o he shocks in he u u e,
especially o hose leas able o cope. Main aining he p og ess al eady made mus con inue
o be a p io i y du ing he c isis esponse and beyond—suppo ing hose a immedia e isk
o po e y, hunge , o disease while acili a ing hei sa e e u n o wo k and educa ion and
hei access o heal hca e [46].
Acco ding o he second s ep o he SDG compass [
47
], o ganiza ions a e encou aged o
de e mine hei p io i ies, elying on an assessmen o hei posi i e-and-nega i e, cu en -
and-po en ial impac s on SDGs ac oss hei alue chains. Due o he impac ha COVID-19
had on he o ganiza ion, he la e may ha e had o pos pone some ac i i ies. I is expec ed
ha while ins i u ions pu mo e ocus on main aining some SDG ac i i ies, hey willingly
o unwillingly make a choice o pos pone o he ac i i ies, hoping o esume hem once he
c isis is behind hem. We, he e o e, hypo hesized ha :
Hypo hesis 3 (H3).
Due o he COVID-19 c isis, local go e nmen s pos poned ce ain SDG
implemen a ion ac i i ies.
4. Ma e ials and Me hods
4.1. Sample and P ocedu es
The popula ion o his s udy consis ed o all 300 Flemish ci ies and municipali ies. All
o hem we e gi en he oppo uni y o pa icipa e olun a ily in an online Qual ics su ey,
d a ed in Du ch and held in July 2021, o ully g asp he po en ial COVID-19 pandemic
e ec s. Th ough he Associa ion o Flemish Ci ies and Municipali ies (VVSG), esponden s
we e mailed he link o his sel -adminis e ed ques ionnai e wi h an accompanying co e
le e , and his mail was di ec ed p ima ily o sus ainabili y o en i onmen al s a . The
su eys we e hus comple ed by a ci il se an on behal o each municipali y/ci y. One o
he co e le e ’s key messages was ha o one ci y/municipali y, only one esponse was
demanded, and his was e iﬁed using some con ol a iables ( ype o ci y/municipali y,
p o ince, numbe o ci izens). To coun e ac possible common me hod bias, pa icipan s
we e u he in o med ha hei esponses would emain anonymous and conﬁden ial [
48
].
In o al, 220 pa icipan s comple ed he su ey, bu 90 we e excluded om u he analysis
since i conce ned pa ial (missing alues) and some double pa icipa ion. The ﬁnal sample
o comple e esponses hus comp ised 130 unique ci ies and municipali ies, esul ing in a
esponse a e o 43.3%. We also no ed ha ci ies and municipali ies o all ca ego ies and all
egions a e included in he 130 unique ones, esul ing in a ep esen a i e sample.
The da a e ie ed om he su ey we e subsequen ly used o desc ibe he s a us o
he a iable SDG implemen a ion o Flemish ci ies and municipali ies and o a emp o
de e mine he ela ionship be ween he COVID-19 pandemic and he SDG implemen a ion
28
Sus ainabili y 2023,15, 6234
o ci ies/municipali ies based on he hypo heses d awn up abo e. In o de o do so, some
o hese da a we e s a is ically es ed using SPSS 28.0.
4.2. Su ey Design
This s udy was in ended o p o ide some empi ical e idence on he ela ionship
be ween he COVID-19 pandemic and SDG implemen a ion o indi idual o ganiza ions,
mo e speciﬁcally, ci ies and municipali ies. To in es iga e, he su ey sec ions o in e es o
his a icle we e: (1) an assessmen o he s a us o he o ganiza ions’ SDG implemen a ion
(cu en ly [ he ime he su ey was comple ed], coun e ac ually [gi en he non-exis ence
o COVID-19], and u u e), (2) an o e iew o SDG implemen a ion ac i i ies (cu en ly [ he
ime he su ey was comple ed], coun e ac ually [gi en he non-exis ence o COVID-19],
and u u e), (3) an assessmen o he di ec impac o COVID-19 on he o ganiza ions’ SDG
implemen a ion (cu en ly [ he ime he su ey was comple ed], and in he u u e), and
(4) an assessmen o he di ec impac o COVID-19 on he o ganiza ion’s implemen a ion
o he indi idual SDGs. Pa icipan s we e hus asked bo h di ec ly and indi ec ly abou
he ela ionship be ween he a iables COVID-19 and SDG implemen a ion. To measu e
he a iables, he ollowing su ey ques ions we e used: “Wha do you conside o be he
impac o he COVID-19 c isis on he SDG Implemen a ion o you ci y/municipali y so
a (1)/wi hin a yea (2)?” (answe s: no, slowdown, accele a ion), and “In you assessmen ,
how a along is you ci y/municipali y in implemen ing he SDGs cu en ly(1)/had he e
been no COVID-19(2)/wi hin a yea (3)?” (answe s: no SDG implemen a ion, ea ly s age,
somewha ad anced, ad anced, a ad anced, comple e SDG implemen a ion). The su ey
ac ed hus also as a way o help ci ies and municipali ies e alua e hei pas and p esen
achie emen o he SDGs in ligh o COVID-19 and o p ojec hemsel es in o he u u e.
To gain insigh s in o SDG implemen a ion ac i i ies o ci ies and municipali ies, his
pape made use o a model consis ing o se e al s eps, which appea ed in bo h academic
li e a u e and p ac i ione guides o all ypes o o ganiza ions. This ﬁ e-s ep model is
also known as he SDG compass [
47
]. The SDG compass is a ool ha was c ea ed o help
ins i u ions o implemen SDGs in di e en s a es o hei p og ams and s a egies. The
SDG compass guide is add essed o all go e nmen al and non-go e nmen al de elopmen
ac o s who a e looking o p ac ical guidance on how o u he mold hei o ganiza ion
and p og ams o Agenda 2030 and he unde lying p inciples [
49
]. Al hough he e a e
many ools, we ound he SDG compass o be easie o unde s and and apply by all
local go e nmen s. The ﬁ e s eps a e: unde s anding he SDGs, deﬁning SDG p io i ies,
se ing SDG goals, in eg a ing he SDGs, and epo ing and communica ing on he SDGs.
These ﬁ e s eps o SDG implemen a ion a e well-known o p ac i ione s and hence e y
ecognizable o he pa icipan s o his su ey. Un o una ely, we did no know exac ly
how many o he su eyed ci ies and municipali ies ac ually used o e en knew he SDG
compass. Howe e , we we e conﬁden ha hey we e all amilia wi h he ﬁ e-s ep model,
especially since he Flemish go e nmen ’s SDG manual o go e nmen al o ganiza ions
is inspi ed by he SDG compass and hus elies on he same ﬁ e-s ep model [
50
]. Hence,
o measu e he a iable, he ollowing su ey ques ions we e used: “In you assessmen ,
o wha ex en is you ci y/municipali y implemen ing he SDGs? Please indica e he
ac i i ies ha you ci y/municipali y is doing cu en ly(1)/had he e been no COVID-
19(2)/wi hin a yea (3)?” (answe s: no, unde s anding he SDGs, deﬁning p io i ies, se ing
goals, in eg a ing, epo ing and communica ing).
Since he SDG compass guide aims o p o ide p ac ical and ope a ional suppo o
o ganiza ions in hei e o s o design, implemen , moni o , and e alua e hei in e en ions
in a way ha espec s and con ibu es o Agenda 2030 [
49
], we used i o e alua e how local
go e nmen s we e able o implemen SDGs du ing COVID-19 and analyze how he e y
implemen a ion could ha e been hinde ed. A ew o he s udies used SDG ools o e alua e
he o ganiza ion’s engagemen wi h SDGs o o p o ide new insigh s. G ainge -B own and
Malekpou [
51
] used di e en SDG ools (SDG compass, global epo ing ini ia i e, and
he ‘SDG indus y ma ix’) in hei e iew esea ch o di e en s a egic SDG ools. Mu ,
29
Sus ainabili y 2023,15, 6234
Kapalka, and Dyllick [
52
], in u n, en iched he SDG compass by in oducing p ocess know-
how and con en expe ise in o de o acili a e i s applica ion in he s a egic p ocesses
o businesses. Such ools and amewo ks a e a way o aligning global goals o “mic o”
s a egies [3].
5. Resul s
5.1. The Slowdown E ec
The esponden s’ assessmen o he s a us o he o ganiza ions’ SDG implemen a-
ion (Figu e 1) clea ly indica ed ha a he momen o ques ioning, mo e han 90% o he
Flemish ci ies and municipali ies (90% o he sample) we e al eady ac i ely engaged in
SDG implemen a ion, wi h mo e han hal being a an ea ly s age o SDG implemen a-
ion. Looking a he coun e ac ual numbe s (gi en he non-exis ence o he COVID-19
c isis), he esul s cau iously showed ha i COVID-19 had no exis ed, Flemish ci ies and
municipali ies would ha e been u he ahead wi h hei SDG implemen a ion. In his
hypo he ical si ua ion, mo e han hal would al eady be a a somewha ad anced s age o
SDG implemen a ion o u he . Looking a he u u e si ua ion (wi hin 1 yea ), he esul s
showed a commi men o Flemish ci ies and municipali ies o keep on engaging in SDG
implemen a ion. Mos o ganiza ions indica ed hey would be a an ad anced o e en a
ad anced s age o SDG implemen a ion one yea la e . To conclude, Figu e 1 cau iously
shows ha COVID-19 has had a slowdown e ec on he SDG implemen a ion o Flemish
ci ies and municipali ies.
Figu e 1. SDG Implemen a ion o Flemish ci ies/municipali ies.
Table 1 shows he basic s a is ics o he SDG implemen a ion o Flemish ci ies and
municipali ies in all h ee si ua ions. The basic s a is ics also en a i ely indica ed ha
had i no been o COVID-19, Flemish ci ies and municipali ies would ha e been u he
ad anced in hei SDG implemen a ion (mean 2.65) han he cu en si ua ion (mean 2.41).
The numbe s also showed he p e iously men ioned commi men o he o ganiza ions o
keep on engaging in SDG implemen a ion in he u u e (mean 3.06). The pai ed-sample
- es esul s showed ha i COVID-19 had no been he e, SDG implemen a ion o Flemish
ci ies and municipali ies would ha e been 0.246 highe han he cu en si ua ion. I was
ound ha , since he signiﬁcance alue o change in SDG implemen a ion is less han
0.05, he a e age hypo he ical ise o 0.246 was no due o chance a ia ion and could be
a ibu ed o he COVID-19 c isis. This indica ed again ha COVID-19 slowed down SDG
implemen a ion in Flemish ci ies and municipali ies. Hence, H1 is suppo ed, and he e is a
s a is ically signiﬁcan di e ence be ween SDG implemen a ion in he COVID-19 si ua ion
and in he hypo he ical coun e ac ual si ua ion (wi h no COVID-19).
30
Sus ainabili y 2023,15, 6234
Table 1. Pai ed-Sample S a is ics ‘SDG Implemen a ion o Flemish ci ies/municipali ies’.
Mean S anda d De ia ion S anda d E o Mean
SDG Implemen a ion Cu en ly (A) 2.41 0.851 0.075
SDG Implemen a ion i COVID-19 had no
been he e (B) 2.65 0.895 0.079
SDG Implemen a ion wi hin 1 yea (C) 3.06 1.002 0.088
Pai ed-sample co ela ions
Co ela ion Signiﬁcance.
A & B 0.828 <0.001
Pai ed-samples es
Pai ed di e ences
Mean di e ence Signiﬁcance. (2- ailed)
A&B −0.246 −5.457 <0.001
n = 130
Supplemen a y, he pa icipan s we e also asked di ec ly abou he impac o COVID-
19 on he SDG implemen a ion o hei o ganiza ions. Figu e 2 shows ha almos 50% o
hem (64 in o al) indica ed ha in he cu en si ua ion, COVID-19 caused a slowdown
in he SDG implemen a ion o hei o ganiza ions. The main easons gi en o his a e:
changing p io i ies, lack o manpowe , and less in e es . This ein o ced he accep ance
o H1: local go e nmen s’ implemen a ion o SDGs signiﬁcan ly slowed down due o he
COVID-19 c isis. I is wo h no ing ha in addi ion, a ew ci ies and municipali ies (ﬁ e
in o al) also indica ed ha he COVID-19 c isis had had jus he opposi e e ec on he
SDG implemen a ion and ha hey ha e shi ed up a gea (seemed o ha e accele a ed).
Al hough his conce ned an absolu e mino i y (less han 4%), we migh no e ha o hese
ci ies and municipali ies, COVID-19 could also ha e c ea ed an oppo uni y o hem o
accele a e he implemen a ion o SDGs.
Figu e 2. Di ec impac o COVID-19 on SDG Implemen a ion o ci ies/municipali ies.
Ou s udy e ealed ha almos 50% o ci ies and municipali ies indica ed ha COVID-
19 slowed down o ganiza ions’ SDG implemen a ion and ha his slowdown was sig-
niﬁcan . Ou ﬁndings a e in line wi h ea lie s udies. Shula e al. [
4
] concluded ha he
31
Sus ainabili y 2023,15, 6234
Da a A ailabili y S a emen :
Da a a e una ailable due o pa icipan s’ o ganiza ions’ p i acy
es ic ions.
Acknowledgmen s:
The au ho s would like o hank he Associa ion o Flemish Ci ies and Munici-
pali ies (VVSG) o hei insigh ul ema ks and sugges ions, and o assis ing in dissemina ing he
su ey. Thanks a e also gi en o he e iewe s o hei aluable commen s.
Conﬂic s o In e es : The au ho s decla e no conﬂic o in e es .
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Disclaime /Publishe ’s No e:
The s a emen s, opinions and da a con ained in all publica ions a e solely hose o he indi idual
au ho (s) and con ibu o (s) and no o MDPI and/o he edi o (s). MDPI and/o he edi o (s) disclaim esponsibili y o any inju y o
people o p ope y esul ing om any ideas, me hods, ins uc ions o p oduc s e e ed o in he con en .
40
Ci a ion: B zozowska, K.;
Go załczy´nska-Koczkodaj, M.;
Ociepa-Kici´nska, E.; Plusko a, P. The
Impac o he COVID-19 Pandemic
on Financial Condi ion and Mo ali y
in Polish Regions. Sus ainabili y 2023,
15, 8993. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/
su15118993
Academic Edi o s: ¸S e an C is ian
Ghe ghina and Liliana Nicole a
Simionescu
Recei ed: 12 Ma ch 2023
Re ised: 19 May 2023
Accep ed: 24 May 2023
Published: 2 June 2023
Copy igh : © 2023 by he au ho s.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Swi ze land.
This a icle is an open access a icle
dis ibu ed unde he e ms and
condi ions o he C ea i e Commons
A ibu ion (CC BY) license (h ps://
c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/
4.0/).
sus ainabili y
A icle
The Impac o he COVID-19 Pandemic on Financial Condi ion
and Mo ali y in Polish Regions
K ys yna B zozowska , Małgo za a Go załczy´nska-Koczkodaj, El˙
zbie a Ociepa-Kici´nska
and P zemysław Plusko a *
Ins i u e o Spa ial Managemen and Socio-Economic Geog aphy, Facul y o Economics, Finance and
Managemen , Uni e si y o Szczecin, Mickiewicza 64, 71-101 Szczecin, Poland;
[email p o ec ed] (K.B.); [email p o ec ed] (M.G.-K.);
[email p o ec ed] (E.O.-K.)
*Co espondence: p zemyslaw[email p o ec ed]
Abs ac :
The s udy aimed o assess he impac o he COVID-19 pandemic on he ﬁnancial condi ion
and mo ali y in Polish oi odeships. To achie e his objec i e, he ela ionship be ween he numbe
o dea hs be o e and du ing he pandemic and he ﬁnancial condi ion o he p o inces in Poland was
s udied. The s udy co e ed he yea s 2017–2020, o which a one-way ANOVA was used o e i y
whe he he e was a ela ionship be ween he le el o a p o ince’s ﬁnancial condi ion and he numbe
o dea hs. The esul s o he s udy a e su p ising and show ha be o e he COVID-19 pandemic,
he e was a highe numbe o dea hs in p o inces ha we e be e o ﬁnancially, bu he ela ionship
was no s a is ically signiﬁcan . In con as , du ing he pandemic, a s a is ically signiﬁcan s ong
nega i e co ela ion be ween hese alues was p o en, which, in p ac ice, shows ha egions wi h
be e ﬁnancial condi ions had a highe numbe o dea hs du ing COVID-19.
Keywo ds:
sel -go e nmen ﬁnances; ﬁnancial condi ion o local adminis a i e uni s; numbe o
dea hs; COVID-19
1. In oduc ion
The pandemic b ough abou by he SARS-CoV-2 i us changed he way he wo ld
unc ioned, he economy, and ci izens’ li es. I also a ec ed he condi ion o public ﬁnances,
including sel -go e nmen ﬁnances. The esea ch comple ed by he key ﬁnancial ins i-
u ions has shown ha he COVID-19 pandemic had an impac on educing he income
o local adminis a i e uni s—LAUs (municipali ies, po ia s, and oi odships), mainly
as a esul o dec easing he ax p oceeds, and also on inc easing he expenses, which
ﬁnally esul ed in dec eased possibili ies o con ac ing deb . Taking a look om a ﬁnancial
pe spec i e makes i possible o comp ehensi ely e alua e LAU unc ioning and i s de el-
opmen capabili ies [
1
]. Finance managemen in LAU should os e a ional expendi u e o
public ﬁnancial esou ces and make co ec decisions ega ding he managemen o mone-
a y unds [
2
]. An impo an issue in LAU e alua ion is i s ﬁnancial condi ion unde s ood
as he sel -go e nmen ’s abili y o balance he ecu ing expenses wi h ecu ing sou ces
o income while ulﬁlling he s a u o y asks s ipula ed by he legal egula ions. O he
deﬁni ions o ﬁnancial condi ions ake in o accoun he possibili y o ﬁnancing he se ices
on a con inuous basis, he complexi y o heal hy ﬁnance, he abili y o pay liabili ies, and
keeping he cu en le el o se ices while main aining he esis ance o changes aking
place o e ime [
3
]. The e ms ‘ﬁnancial condi ion’ and ‘ﬁnancial si ua ion’ a e used in e -
changeably and deﬁned in di e en ways [
1
,
4
–
10
]. In iew o he esea ch s udies p esen ed
in his pape , i was decided ha he mos pe inen deﬁni ion o ﬁnancial condi ion will
be he en i y’s abili y o imely mee i s ﬁnancial liabili ies and he abili y o sus ain he
se ices p o ided o he public [11].
Sus ainabili y 2023,15, 8993. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/su15118993 h ps://www.mdpi.com/jou nal/sus ainabili y
41
Sus ainabili y 2023,15, 8993
Resea che s all o e he wo ld ha e aken up nume ous s udies ega ding he im-
pac o COVID-19 on he ac i i y o business en i ies. The esea ch s udies co e ed he
inﬂuence o COVID-19 on he labo ma ke and i s inequali ies [
12
], also aking in o con-
side a ion people wi h disabili ies [
13
], he school educa ion p ocess in Ge many [
14
],
and also on employmen in LAUs in he USA, in pa icula , he si ua ion o dec eased
income and inc eased expenses [
15
]. O he esea ch s udies also add essed he ela ionship
be ween he COVID-19 pandemic and he mo ali y a e [
16
], he economic de elopmen
a e [
17
], and he popula ion size, which has an impac on bu dening he heal hca e sys-
em [
18
]. An analysis o he a e age li e expec ancy has shown an inc eased mo ali y
isk du ing he pandemic, globally as well as in Poland [
19
], and mo e los yea s o li e
expec ancy han be o e he pandemic [
20
]. Addi ionally, he analysis co e ed he impac
o COVID-19 na ionally [
21
], in local sec o s [
22
], and he ede al budge s in he USA [
23
]
on he subjec o small and medium en e p ises [
24
,
25
], hei c edi wo hiness, and he
sys em o gua an ees and su e yships o SMEs [
26
]. Rama Iye and Simkins [
27
] analyzed
81 a icles ega ding COVID-19 and he economy, acco ding o ci a ion coun s in Google
Schola . They di ided he selec ed a icles in o ﬁ e hema ic a eas: in es men s and asse s
alua ion, mac oeconomics and banking, esou ces, business ﬁnance, and o he s. The
s udies ega ded he capi al ma ke , labo ma ke , educa ion ma ke , and condi ion o
en e p ises and economies on he mac o scale.
Despi e such ex ensi e esea ch a ailable in he li e a u e, he au ho s o his pape
iden iﬁed a sho age o s udies ega ding he ﬁnancial condi ion o local adminis a i e
uni s (LAUs), such as ci ies and municipali ies, second- ie adminis a i e uni s (po ia s),
o sel -go e nmen s o p o inces ( oi odeships). This is pa icula ly impo an because, in
a COVID-19 pandemic, egional economies we e ulne able o measu es aken by cen al
go e nmen s and ins umen s used in mi iga ing he pandemic’s e ec s. A he same
ime, measu es aken on a na ional scale had an impac on egions and hei economic
si ua ion, howe e , wi h di e se e ec s [
28
]. In his con ex , he ﬁnancial si ua ion o LAUs
in ha pe iod should be conside ed in wo aspec s. On one side, om he poin o iew
o he need o inc ease expenses o coun e ac he COVID-19 pandemic and o elimina e
i s e ec s, and pa allel o ha in e ms o dec eased cu en p oceeds (i.a. om lease and
en al ees, due o eleasing en ep eneu s om he du y o pay such cha ges as a esul
o empo a y suspension o hei ac i i y). The s udy aimed o assess he impac o he
COVID-19 pandemic on he ﬁnancial condi ion and mo ali y in Polish egions. To achie e
he goal, he ela ionship be ween he numbe o dea hs and he ﬁnancial condi ion o
oi odeships in Poland in he pe iod be o e he COVID-19 pandemic and du ing he cou se
o i .
This esea ch s udy was based on he s a is ical and ﬁnancial da a ound in budge
implemen a ion epo s submi ed by LAUs in Poland o he yea s 2017–2020 (la es
a ailable da a). Fo each egion, ﬁnancial condi ion indica o s (in ela i e e ms) we e
compu ed, which made i possible o d aw conclusions ega ding he impac o COVID-19
on hei ﬁnancial s anding, and i s inﬂuence on he mo ali y a e.
The esea ch scope co e ed 16 sel -go e ning oi odeships in Poland [
29
,
30
]. Voi ode-
ships in Poland a e in e changeably e e ed o as egions (NUTS2), In he same b ead h
and hey cons i u e one o he h ee le els o LAUs, along wi h municipali ies and po ia s.
The pape consis s o se e al sec ions pu in a logical sequence. Sec ion one includes
heo e ical aspec s connec ed wi h he discussed issues, p epa ed on he basis o he
li e a u e e iew. Addi ionally, i con ains he analyses o he concep and ac o s o LAU’s
ﬁnancial condi ion as well as me ics o i s e alua ion. The nex sec ion discusses he scale
and e ec s o he COVID-19 pandemic and i s impac on public ﬁnances and mo ali y a es
in he egions. Sec ion h ee p esen s he esea ch s udy concep along wi h a desc ip ion
o he applied esea ch me hods. Sec ion ou shows he esea ch esul s, and he las one
con ains conclusions.
42
Sus ainabili y 2023,15, 8993
2. The Concep o he Financial Condi ion o Regions
Each sel -go e ning oi odeship unc ions and ope a es on he basis o he same
egula o y amewo k. This includes no only he sys emic and adminis a i e no ms bu
ﬁ s and o emos he aspec s o he unc ional a ﬁlia ion, in acco dance wi h which he
ele an legal ac s (Ac on municipali y sel -go e nmen , po ia sel -go e nmen , and
oi odeship go e nmen ) con ain a ca alog o s a u o y asks, which imposes on each
oi odeship he du y o ca y ou he same asks (whe e one o he majo asks is os e ing
he de elopmen o a gi en oi odeship and c ea ion o mechanisms and ins umen s o
s imula e i s de elopmen ). In o de ha he enume a ed asks may be implemen ed, he
legisla o (i.a. in he Ac on public ﬁnance o in he Cons i u ion) indica ed conc e e sou ces
o income, which a e iden ical o e e y oi odeship. This means ha in he legal and
ﬁnancial aspec s he si ua ion o all oi odeships a he s a ing poin is he same.
Financial condi ion is in mos cases ea ed as a synonym o he e ms ﬁnancial si u-
a ion o ﬁnancial s anding. Dylewski e al. [
7
] poin ed ou ha he concep s o ﬁnancial
condi ion and ﬁnancial si ua ion a e almos iden ical and hey added ha he ﬁnancial si u-
a ion o a LAU is he s a e o ﬁnances ha makes i possible o ﬁnance he implemen a ion
o s a u o y asks, mee ing he quan i a i e and quali a i e equi emen s a a gi en ime
and in he u u e, which is speciﬁed by he ime ame o he measu emen , whe eas, he
ﬁnancial condi ion is a esul o decisions aken by local adminis a i e uni s. Kopy´scia´nski
and Rólczy´nski [
6
] supplemen ed his iew saying ha on he one hand he ﬁnancial
si ua ion goal o an en i y’s ac i i y, and on he o he hand an ou come o decisions aken
ea lie . Zawo a [
1
], in u n, unde lined ha he ﬁnancial condi ion is no only a de i a i e
o implemen ed public asks and p ojec s, bu i i sel cons i u es a sou ce o p o-e ec i e
ac i i ies. Acco ding o Na ini and Ri onga [
11
], he ﬁnancial condi ion desc ibes a LAU’s
abili y o mee i s ﬁnancial liabili ies, and based on he e alua ion he sel -go e nmen is
able o speci y how o mee he public needs, and how o make use o he esou ces in
a mo e p oduc i e manne . A LAU in a good ﬁnancial condi ion usually main ains an
app op ia e le el o se ices despi e a dec ease in he ﬁscal income, i iden iﬁes long- e m
economic o demog aphic changes and adap s o hem, and p epa es esou ces o mee
u u e needs. Howe e , when unde ﬁscal s ess, a LAU usually aces p oblems wi h
balancing he budge , expe iences dec eased le els o se ices, encoun e s di ﬁcul ies wi h
adap ing o he socio-economic condi ions, and has limi ed esou ces o ﬁnancing u u e
needs [
31
]. P ope assessmen o a LAU’s ﬁnancial condi ion is no an easy p ocess due o
he complexi y o he phenomenon, and in o de o make he assessmen objec i e ﬁnancial
a ios a e mos o en used in p ac ice [10].
Acco ding o Ri onga e al. [
5
], only a ew esea che s a emp ed o explain he ac o s
inﬂuencing he ﬁnancial condi ion, quo ing pape s ha enume a e he main de e minan s
o he ﬁnancial condi ion o LAUs in a ious coun ies. The mos equen ly indica ed
de e minan s include: popula ion size/densi y, en i onmen al condi ions, he s a e o he
local economic base, go e nmen al policies and ﬁnancial p ac ices ( ax le els) ha ing an
impac on local esou ces, labo cos s, cos s o capi al and o he p oduc ion esou ces. I
is possible o s a e ha in gene al e ms he ac o s ha a e he mos equen ly iden iﬁed
a e b oadly deﬁned socio-economic ones. Due o he complexi y o ac o s inﬂuencing
he ﬁnancial condi ion o sel -go e nmen , he e a e no any easy o immedia e ways o
unde s and he di e siﬁca ion o he ﬁnancial si ua ions o sel -go e nmen .
Taking in o accoun he ac o s men ioned abo e, i is possible o dis inguish
six me ics
ha illus a e he ﬁnancial condi ion o a LAU [4]:
•abili y o mee sho - e m liabili ies (sho - e m sol ency);
•abili y o mee ope a ing liabili ies (budge liquidi y);
•abili y o mee long- e m liabili ies (long- e m sol ency);
•abili y o o e come unexpec ed e en s in he u u e (ﬁnancial ﬂexibili y);
•abili y o e ec i ely execu e p ope y igh s (ﬁnancial independence);
•
abili y o p o ide se ices o he communi y (sol ency in e ms o se ices p o ision).
43

Sus ainabili y 2023,15, 8993
The issue o assessing a LAU’s ﬁnancial condi ion is ex emely impo an om he
poin o iew o he in o ma i e alue o decision-making and in o ma ion pu poses, as
well as in iew o he abili y o inabili y o con ac deb . Such an assessmen p o ides
in o ma ion ha acili a es decision-making wi h ega d o implemen ing new asks, and a
he same ime, i enables e alua ion o he ac i i ies comple ed so a by he sel -go e nmen
wi hin a speciﬁc scope [
32
]. The Polish li e a u e on he subjec p esen s he esul s o LAU’s
ﬁnancial condi ion e alua ion ob ained ia a ious me hods, including hose based on
empi ical me ics o syn he ic indica o s. Resea che s mos o en ely on, o example, he
indica o s p oposed by he Minis y o Finance. In iew o he di e en ia ion be ween
he concep s o ﬁnancial condi ion and ﬁnancial si ua ion, hey supplemen he indica o s
p oposed by he Minis y wi h addi ional me ics [
3
,
10
,
33
–
36
]. The mos equen ly applied
indica o s o assess LAU’s ﬁnancial condi ion include he g ow h a e o income and
expenses o LAUs in connec ion wi h he e alua ion o he budge balances and wi h
he ope a ing esul and he esul o asse s- ela ed ac i i ies. The p e ailing opinion is
ha any gi en uni ’s condi ion is bes eﬂec ed by he le el o income and expenses pe
capi a [
33
]. In sel -go e nmen al p ac ice, indica o s o his kind a e applied in o de o
make compa isons in e ms o ime and space in ela ion o o he LAUs (pa icula ly he
neighbo ing ones) which in some aspec s may be compe i o s e.g., when po en ial in es o s
choose a loca ion o in es men o when esiden s wan o s a hei business ac i i y.
Among he concep s, he one ha dese es a en ion is he app oach aken by he Regional
Accoun ing Chambe which in i s analysis o h ea s o LAU’s ﬁnancial managemen
applies 9 c i e ia selec ed on he basis o indica o s ela ed o deb and ﬁnancial esul s
( o al liabili ies o income a io, accumula ed deb o income a io, p esence o payables due,
indi idual deb epaymen a io, cu en expenses and deb o cu en income a io, sha e o
ope a ing su plus/deﬁci in o al income, lack o unds o co e an ope a ing deﬁci , unds
o be ca ied o wa d o nex yea ’s budge based on LAU’s budge implemen a ion balance
shee o he p e ious yea , budge esul o income a io) [
34
]. Based on he ou come
o LAU’s c edibili y e alua ion ca ied ou by means o disc iminan analysis me hods,
Adamczyk & Dawidowicz [
3
] poin ed ou ha indica o s o he g ea es impo ance a e
hose which in hei s uc u e comp ise ca ego ies such as o al income alue, le el o
own income, ope a ing su plus alue, deb le el, and deb se ice cos . Addi ionally,
hei esea ch has shown ha mo e di e se se s o indica o s should be applied when
analyzing he ﬁnancial condi ion o bigge LAUs, e.g., ci ies wi h po ia (second- ie o
local go e nmen adminis a ion in Poland) igh s: o oi odeships ( egions).
3. The Impac o he COVID-19 Pandemic on he Economy
The ﬁ s cases o in ec ions wi h he SARC-CoV-2 i us we e iden iﬁed in he ci y o
Wuhan (p o ince o Hubei, China) in Decembe 2019. In Ma ch 2020 he Wo ld Heal h
O ganisa ion (WHO) announced “a global pandemic” [
37
]. Ini ially, he i us sp ead in
China and Eu ope, bu in he second qua e o 2020, i was p esen all o e he wo ld [
24
,
38
].
The COVID-19 pandemic quickly sp awled ou , esul ing in human agedies and economic
losses, a ec ing bo h de eloped and de eloping coun ies. By he end o 2020, mo e han
79 million SARC-CoV-2 in ec ions we e de ec ed, esul ing in mo e han 1.7 million dea hs
all o e he wo ld [
39
]. In Poland, he ﬁ s case o a SARC-CoV-2 in ec ion was iden iﬁed
on 4 Ma ch 2020 in Lubuskie oi odeship [
40
]. F om he beginning o he pandemic ill he
end o 2020, o e 1.25 million SARC-CoV-2 in ec ions we e de ec ed in Poland, and he e
we e mo e han 27 housand dea hs caused by COVID-19 [39].
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic changed he way he wo ld was unc ioning, a ec ing he
economy and he ci izens’ li es, i also le i s ma k on he condi ion o public ﬁnances [
21
].
No coun y escaped he nega i e consequences [
41
,
42
]. The ﬁnancial ou comes o he
pandemic include on he one hand dec eased public e enues (mainly om axes), which
was caused i.a. by es ic ed business ac i i y, lowe income, and dec eased ac i i y
o households [
43
,
44
]. On he o he hand, he e was a ise in COVID- ela ed expenses
o compensa e o he losses expe ienced by en e p ises [
45
]. Mos su eyees (63%) o
44
Sus ainabili y 2023,15, 8993
he OECD-Eu opean Commi ee o he Regions expec ed ha he socio-economic c isis
caused by he COVID-19 pandemic would ha e a signiﬁcan ly nega i e e ec on local
sel -go e nmen s [
46
]. The ﬁndings o he ini ial s udies and analyses we e pessimis ic
wi h ega d o he condi ion o local adminis a i e uni s o each le el [
47
,
48
]. In gene al,
howe e , in many coun ies, he shock was pa ially cushioned by measu es aken by
cen al go e nmen s in he a ea o ﬁnancial ans e s [
35
]. In 2020 mos coun ies in oduced
measu es o suppo local and egional ﬁnances, o pa ially mi iga e he e ec s o he
economic shock. Ci ies and egions aced new challenges connec ed wi h he condi ion o
local and egional economies, caused by he unp edic abili y o income le els and hei
ealloca ion in esponse o unp edic ed e en s. Many sel -go e nmen s had o cope wi h
‘ he scisso s e ec ’, i.e., inc eased le els o sel -go e nmen expenses accompanied by
dec eased le els o income [46,49,50].
The esea ch done by he Wo ld Bank has shown ha he COVID-19 pandemic led o a
dec ease in he income o local adminis a i e uni s, mainly as a esul o dec eased p oceeds
om axes, inc eased expenses caused by ex ao dina y i ems, dec eased c edi wo hiness
and educed abili y o con ac deb [
51
,
52
]. The esea ch on he impac o COVID-19 on
egional ﬁnances in Eu ope, Asia, and A ica ha e shown an a e age dec ease in income
o 10% and an a e age inc ease in expenses o 5%. The main eason o ha dec ease
was a educ ion in p oceeds om axes and cha ges, lease o sale o asse s, and smalle
ans e s om cen al go e nmen s. This en ailed he need o bo ow money in o de
o cope wi h c isis si ua ions, and suspending o abandoning o key in es men s [
49
].
Au ho i ies all o e he wo ld ook s eps o p e en he i us om sp eading and o
mi iga e i s e ec s, he esul o which was a o al o pa ial closu e o he whole economy
sec o s [
53
], which in u n educed he ac i i y o business en i ies [
43
,
44
] igge ing long-
e m e ec s [54], in pa icula o ou ism and a ia ion indus y [55]. They anged widely
om a el es ic ions o na ional and egional lockdowns, keeping social dis ance, and
o he measu es os e ing he o ma ion o uncon en ional geopoli ical and socio-spa ial
mo emen s [
28
]. In esponse o he i us p opaga ion, au ho i ies imposed es ic ions on
anspo , economic and indus ial ac i i y in many coun ies.
The scope and scale o he COVID-19 impac we e unp eceden ed and he e ogeneous,
wi h majo implica ions o c isis managemen and poli ical eac ions [
56
], on he one
hand being an objec o scien iﬁc esea ch, and on he o he gene a ing e ec s which
will be expe ienced o many yea s. COVID-19 had an impac on e e yday li e, causing
a - eaching consequences in he a ea o heal hca e and economy, and also in he social
dimension [
57
,
58
]. Acco ding o he analys s, he e ec s o hose measu es we e d ama ic,
and business ac i i y slumped on a global scale [
38
]. Acco ding o P. B inca e al. [
53
], he
pandemic was unique in e ms o i s na u e and size, he unce ain y o i s du a ion, and
demand and supply shocks as well as a ious un o eseeable e ec s.
Economis s compa e he pandemic ime wi h he G ea Dep ession o he 1930s and
he G ea Recession o 2008. E en hough he ﬁnancial c isis o 2008 and he COVID-19
pandemic we e di e en in e ms o scope and ime o impac [
28
], bo h o hem inﬂuenced
economies in many coun ies [
59
]. S ill, acco ding o economis s, he COVID-19 pandemic
has had he g ea es impac on he economy since he G ea Dep ession, a leas in he sho
un. The p e en i e measu es aken will inﬂuence he du a ion o he ecession and he
eco e y ime needed by he economy o e u n o he s a e om be o e he pandemic [
23
].
Ne e heless, he ac ual nega i e impac o COVID-19 u ned ou o be smalle han
ini ially es ima ed. This was mainly due o he ﬁnancial suppo ecei ed om he cen al
go e nmen o s eng hen he ﬁnancial condi ion o local adminis a i e uni s, main ain-
ing ai ly s able p oceeds om axes (mainly om he p ope y ax) coming o he local
budge s, and also sa ings in expenses, esul ing om limi ing o abandoning he local in-
es men s [
50
]. The ﬁnancial si ua ion o local adminis a i e uni s in Poland was no ound
o be d ama ically de e io a ed, howe e , his may no jus i y he op imism o he cen al
go e nmen in ha ega d [
60
]. Compa ed o cen al go e nmen s, sel -go e nmen s ha e
less e ec i e ins umen s o espond o economic shocks, e en hough hei p oceeds a e
45
Sus ainabili y 2023,15, 8993
less sensi i e o de e io a ion o he economic si ua ion han hose o cen al go e nmen s.
The e ec i eness o he ools being a he disposal o local o egional sel -go e nmen s is
smalle , he ools also ha e a mode a e impac on he sho - e m si ua ion o he budge
and on he economic si ua ion in he egion [
35
,
47
]. The impac o COVID-19 on egional
and local ﬁnances is no unambiguous due o he possibili y o he con inua ion o he
pandemic and i s e ec s [
61
]. Undoub edly, he nega i e impac s did no sp ead e enly.
Due o he e i o ial aspec o he COVID-19 c isis [
52
], egions we e no a ec ed in he
same way and i s medium- and long- e m e ec s a e di e se [
35
,
62
]. The di e en ia ing
ac o s o his impac include e.g., he sensi i i y o a egion o he ope a ion o global
alue chains [
63
], he sha e o ulne able sec o s ( ou ism, accommoda ion, ca e ing) in he
local economy [64], kinds o income and budge expenses in he pa icula ypes o LAUs.
The de elopmen o he pandemic also a ec ed he numbe o dea hs and mo ali y a es,
which eached le els no seen o a long ime. This also d ew he a en ion o scien is s,
who began o s udy he p oblem [58,65].
E en hough o e he las se e al decades he numbe o dea hs all o e he wo ld
dec eased, he las yea s showed a sligh ise in he numbe , and in 2020 he ise was
conside able. Addi ionally in Poland, he yea 2020 saw a signiﬁcan ly highe mo ali y
a e compa ed o he p e ious yea s, which was di ec ly and indi ec ly caused by he
COVID-19 pandemic (Figu e 1).
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Figu e 1.
Mo ali y a e pe 1000 popula ion in Poland o e he yea s 1960–2020. Sou ce: own s udy
based on Da a om Wo ld Bank [62].
4. Ma e ials and Me hods
The objec o he esea ch was local go e nmen uni s a he oi odeship le el. In
Poland a e 16 LAUs, all o which we e co e ed by he esea ch ( o al sample). Based on
he e iew o he li e a u e ega ding he ﬁnancial condi ion o sel -go e nmen s, legal
egula ions conce ning hei ope a ion, and he ange o sugges ed s udy indica o s, and
also based on he conclusions de i ed om he li e a u e e iew and indica o s used by
he Cen al S a is ical O ﬁce in Poland, a se o a iables was selec ed o desc ibe an LAU’s
ﬁnancial condi ion. To main ain he logic o he esea ch p ocess and he compa abili y o
da a, he inpu da a used in he calcula ions come om he Local Da a Bank o he Cen al
S a is ical O ﬁce, Regional Accoun ing Chambe s, and om ﬁnancial da a de i ed om
he budge epo s o all he oi odeships o he yea s 2017–2020. The esea ch pe iod
was di ided in o wo pa s, be o e and du ing he pandemic [
66
,
67
], enabling on he one
side, o analyze o da a om he yea s p eceding he pandemic, which p o ides a baseline,
46
Sus ainabili y 2023,15, 8993
and on he o he side, he cyclical na u e o he publica ion o da a by he Polish Cen al
S a is ical O ﬁce (many mon hs a e he end o he yea ) makes 2020, he las comple e da a,
co e ing he pandemic pe iod. To ensu e compa abili y o he analyzed da a, hey we e
exp essed in ela i e e ms ( he sou ce da a which we e exp essed on he ‘pe capi a’ basis
we e le unchanged, whe eas he emaining da a we e ecalcula ed pe 10,000 popula ion,
which was de e mined by he olume and cla i y o ecei ed esul s). The s udy co e ed
all he egional sel -go e nmen s in Poland, i.e., 16 oi odeships (Table 1). Financial da a
o he analyzed LAUs used in he e alua ion o he ﬁnancial condi ion we e p esen ed in
Appendix A (Table A1).
Table 1. Fea u es desc ibing he ﬁnancial si ua ion o Polish egions.
Fea u e LTB/STB
p ope y income pe capi a in PLN LTB
p ope y expenses pe capi a in PLN LTB
ope a ing su plus as % o o al income pe 10,000 popula ion LTB
a io o ﬁnancing capi al expendi u e wi h ope a ing su plus LTB
planned deb amoun in PLN pe capi a ( o a gi en yea ) STB
in es men olume indica o pe 10,000 popula ion in PLN LTB
annual deb o o al income pe cen age a io STB
Sou ce: own wo k.
Due o he sho da a p esen a ion pe iod connec ed wi h he COVID-19 pandemic by
oi odeship (since 23 No embe 2020), he numbe o dea hs in he pa icula oi odeships
was assumed o speci y he impac o he COVID-19 pandemic on he ﬁnancial condi ion
o he egions in Poland. Fo ha pu pose, he mo ali y a e pe 10,000 popula ion was
applied. A s udy o he ela ionship be ween mo ali y a es and socio-economic s a us
was conduc ed by Aykaç and E ile [
65
]. On he o he hand, Ya uz and E ile [
58
] looked
o a ela ionship be ween u ban heal h indica o s and he hi d wa e o COVID-19 on a
egional basis. Thei esul s indica e COVID-19 cases a e highe in mo e de eloped ci ies
wi h highe manu ac u ing sec o ac i i y.
The calcula ion o he ﬁnancial condi ion was based on he ﬁnancial da a om all
oi odeships and he syn he ic indica o me hod which equi ed s anda diza ion o he
da a. The s udy o he ela ionships equi ed he p e ious speciﬁca ions o he socioeco-
nomic de elopmen le el and he ﬁnancial s anding o he whole sample. The e alua ion o
he analyzed phenomenon applied he syn he ic indica o me hod [
68
], he applica ion o
which in ol ed se e al s ages [
69
]. In he ﬁ s s age, a iables desc ibing he phenomenon
we e selec ed [
70
–
72
] and used in cons uc ing a ma ix. The nex s age consis ed in con-
e ing he me ics in o de o no malize hem o basic ea u es [
73
]. I was assumed
ha when a high alue o he diagnos ic a iable o a gi en phenomenon is associa ed
wi h beneﬁcial g ow h, he ea u e is conside ed La ge - he-be e (LTB), whe eas, in a
si ua ion whe e a low alue o he a iable is beneﬁcial o he phenomenon in ques ion,
i is deemed smalle - he-be e (STB) [
74
,
75
]. The ollowing o mulas we e applied in
he calcula ions [69,71]:
o LTB ac o s (S)Zij =xij −min(xij)
maxxij−minxij
o STB ac o s (D)Zij =maxxij−xij
maxxij−min(xij
whe e: Zij—diagnos ic a iable, alling wi hin he ange om 0 o 1;
xij — he ea u e alue o a gi en egion;
min xij— he lowes alue o he ea u e among he examined egions;
max xij— he highes alue o he ea u e among he examined egions.
47
Sus ainabili y 2023,15, 8993
Table A1. Con .
Voi odeship Yea
P ope y
Income Pe
Capi a
(PLN)
To al
Expenses
Pe Capi a
(PLN)
Ope a ing
Su plus as
% o To al
Income Pe
10,000
Popula ion
(%)
Ra io o
Financing
Capi al Ex-
pendi u e
wi h
Ope a ing
Su plus
(%)
Planned
Amoun o
Deb Pe
Capi a ( o
a Gi en
Yea ) (%)
In es men
Volume
Indica o
Pe 10,000
Popula ion
(PLN)
Ra io o
Annual
Deb o
To al
Income (%)
´
Sl ˛askie 22.15 268.47 0.0353 0.7206 150.59 612,495 55.06
´
Swi˛e ok zyskie 113.11 386.00 0.1043 0.3745 132.64 1,430,997 32.38
Wa mi´nsko-
mazu skie 44.93 363.88 0.0500 0.3279 209.80 779,372 58.86
Wielkopolskie 28.21 336.23 0.0531 0.6101 95.58 989,017 29.33
Zachodniopomo skie
131.81 472.55 0.0646 0.2828 138.55 1,841,225 29.33
Dolno´sl ˛askie
2018
80.92 396.63 0.0545 0.6025 210.21 1,134,539 48.61
Kujawsko-
pomo skie 50.38 392.36 0.0681 0.4679 131.44 1,154,862 34.47
Lubelskie 77.51 437.30 0.0621 0.3284 335.83 1,638,904 82.97
Lubuskie 73.22 445.81 0.1100 0.3260 173.63 1,445,360 41.18
Łódzkie 43.86 324.46 0.0743 0.6496 125.31 948,820 37.40
Małopolskie 87.81 386.66 0.0469 0.4711 122.21 1,361,976 30.37
Mazowieckie 26.12 489.37 0.0568 1.2562 185.81 1,340,993 33.79
Opolskie 174.74 504.68 0.1160 0.2828 119.31 2,130,931 22.66
Podka packie 176.97 537.23 0.0917 0.4202 92.08 2,612,734 16.36
Podlaskie 249.23 671.03 0.0885 0.1622 107.43 3,858,776 18.00
Pomo skie 113.08 449.74 0.0632 0.3640 93.97 1,808,170 20.98
´
Sl ˛askie 50.18 318.73 0.0474 0.7743 132.94 967,667 38.30
´
Swi˛e ok zyskie 195.50 564.67 0.1181 0.2499 121.01 3,102,732 22.94
Wa mi´nsko-
mazu skie 64.50 428.76 0.0900 0.3529 254.22 1,455,065 63.70
Wielkopolskie 27.93 363.97 0.0506 0.6231 115.79 1,003,941 32.70
Zachodniopomo skie
198.39 559.71 0.0531 0.1962 172.37 2,547,042 31.15
Dolno´sl ˛askie
2019
58.71 384.33 0.0614 0.6678 182.80 1,085,665 44.92
Kujawsko-
pomo skie 45.81 431.88 0.1112 0.6907 130.31 1,444,978 30.09
Lubelskie 190.03 576.78 0.0707 0.2977 329.60 2,872,741 58.33
Lubuskie 108.97 517.12 0.1071 0.2662 210.40 1,967,707 43.68
Łódzkie 72.16 387.98 0.0641 0.4970 251.78 1,261,237 63.47
Małopolskie 63.02 390.55 0.0565 0.6752 108.99 1,184,400 26.26
Mazowieckie 40.87 597.31 0.0504 0.8752 148.38 1,912,433 24.15
Opolskie 165.29 519.24 0.1483 0.3971 100.60 2,056,248 17.95
Podka packie 151.17 496.82 0.0959 0.5179 99.83 2,146,005 18.33
Podlaskie 368.60 835.10 0.0869 0.1444 183.75 5,321,012 24.55
Pomo skie 155.75 563.64 0.0773 0.3706 114.64 2,683,275 20.82
´
Sl ˛askie 38.76 328.39 0.0522 0.9840 107.31 881,677 29.34
´
Swi˛e ok zyskie 179.66 551.18 0.1579 0.3966 108.20 2,787,006 19.23
Wa mi´nsko-
mazu skie 91.90 473.45 0.0878 0.3930 254.60 1,506,189 53.72
Wielkopolskie 91.59 450.83 0.0548 0.4598 126.19 1,846,122 28.50
Zachodniopomo skie
83.45 463.86 0.0998 0.5052 146.67 1,574,015 31.24
54

Sus ainabili y 2023,15, 8993
Table A1. Con .
Voi odeship Yea
P ope y
Income Pe
Capi a
(PLN)
To al
Expenses
Pe Capi a
(PLN)
Ope a ing
Su plus as
% o To al
Income Pe
10,000
Popula ion
(%)
Ra io o
Financing
Capi al Ex-
pendi u e
wi h
Ope a ing
Su plus
(%)
Planned
Amoun o
Deb Pe
Capi a ( o
a Gi en
Yea ) (%)
In es men
Volume
Indica o
Pe 10,000
Popula ion
(PLN)
Ra io o
Annual
Deb o
To al
Income (%)
Dolno´sl ˛askie
2020
69.65 381.86 0.0930 1.2270 141.81 1,044,769 29.84
Kujawsko-
pomo skie 67.38 510.33 0.1223 0.7856 129.51 1,747,413 23.97
Lubelskie 95.78 474.97 0.0461 0.3877 326.64 1,244,255 66.04
Lubuskie 150.71 613.78 0.1585 0.3832 227.17 2,548,829 37.41
Łódzkie 84.01 419.42 0.0851 0.6019 230.67 1,541,501 52.18
Małopolskie 151.79 591.41 0.0360 0.3422 142.89 2,150,655 23.75
Mazowieckie 29.37 614.11 0.0422 1.0638 174.94 1,398,053 26.82
Opolskie 125.31 554.43 0.1959 0.7580 81.09 1,632,610 12.67
Podka packie 173.44 565.19 0.0884 0.4552 127.19 2,492,443 21.10
Podlaskie 269.82 728.75 0.0961 0.2196 244.34 3,679,158 34.34
Pomo skie 72.66 455.41 0.0790 0.6100 104.53 1,428,247 22.13
´
Sl ˛askie 93.96 426.40 0.0347 0.3696 101.16 1,745,141 24.65
´
Swi˛e ok zyskie 110.18 478.39 0.2279 0.8256 95.66 1,903,624 17.22
Wa mi´nsko-
mazu skie 198.59 588.08 0.1168 0.3681 242.27 2,773,166 39.62
Wielkopolskie 108.33 469.58 0.0739 0.6963 116.78 1,926,712 22.48
Zachodniopomo skie
140.38 566.76 0.1179 0.5512 173.38 2,212,195 28.52
Sou ce: own s udy based on esolu ions on adop ing budge s and long- e m ﬁnancial o ecas s o oi odeships,
esolu ions on amending budge s and long- e m ﬁnancial o ecas s o oi odeships o he yea s 2017–2020, and
budge implemen a ion epo s.
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Disclaime /Publishe ’s No e:
The s a emen s, opinions and da a con ained in all publica ions a e solely hose o he indi idual
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58
Ci a ion: Spulba , C.; Anghel, L.C.;
Bi au, R.; E mis
,, S.I.; T eap˘a , L.-M.;
Mi oi, A.T. Digi aliza ion as a Fac o
in Reducing Po e y and I s
Implica ions in he Con ex o he
COVID-19 Pandemic. Sus ainabili y
2022,14, 10667. h ps://doi.o g/
10.3390/su141710667
Academic Edi o : Dona o Mo ea
Recei ed: 17 June 2022
Accep ed: 23 Augus 2022
Published: 26 Augus 2022
Publishe ’s No e: MDPI s ays neu al
wi h ega d o ju isdic ional claims in
published maps and ins i u ional a ﬁl-
ia ions.
Copy igh : © 2022 by he au ho s.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Swi ze land.
This a icle is an open access a icle
dis ibu ed unde he e ms and
condi ions o he C ea i e Commons
A ibu ion (CC BY) license (h ps://
c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/
4.0/).
sus ainabili y
A icle
Digi aliza ion as a Fac o in Reducing Po e y and I s
Implica ions in he Con ex o he COVID-19 Pandemic
C is i Spulba 1, Lucian Claudiu Anghel 2, Ramona Bi au 3,*, Simona Ioana E mis
,2, Lau en
,iu-Mihai T eapă 2and
Ad ian T. Mi oi 4
1Facul y o Economics and Business Adminis a ion, Uni e si y o C aio a, 200585 C aio a, Romania
2Facul y o Managemen , Na ional Uni e si y o Poli ical S udies and Public Adminis a ion,
30a Expozi
,iei Bl d., Sec o 1, 012244 Bucha es , Romania
3Doc o al School o Economic Sciences, Uni e si y o C aio a, 200585 C aio a, Romania
4The Facul y o Finance and Banking, Bucha es Uni e si y o Economic S udies, 5-7 Mihail Moxa S ee ,
Dis ic 1, 010961 Bucha es , Romania
*Co espondence: [email p o ec ed]
Abs ac :
In he p esen economic con ex , one o he mos impo an opics o discussion is ha
ega ding sus ainable de elopmen . Acco ding o he agenda de eloped by he Uni ed Na ions, one
o he mos impo an objec i es o he p esen decade is ep esen ed by he lis o he Sus ainable
De elopmen Goals. The Sus ainable De elopmen Goals can be di ided in o ﬁ e pilla s: people,
plane , p ospe i y, pa ne ship and peace. One o he ﬁ s s ipula ed goals o he UN agenda is
he e adica ion o po e y and amine. We conside ha a signiﬁcan inﬂuence on he e adica ion
o po e y is ep esen ed by he de elopmen o echnology. In his pape , he au ho s aim o
es ablish a connec ion be ween he a e o echnological de elopmen and he po e y headcoun
a e. To measu e he digi al de elopmen o he analyzed coun ies, we decided o compose an
index o digi al de elopmen by aking in o accoun indica o s made a ailable by he In e na ional
Telecommunica ion Union and he po e y headcoun a io, as was calcula ed by he Wo ld Bank
da abase. This empi ical s udy is o in e es o he implica ions ha i has in shaping go e nmen al
policies ega ding easing he access o digi al echnology. The me hod used o quan i y he inﬂuence
o digi al de elopmen on po e y was he panel da a GMM ec o au o eg essi e model o a da ase
composed o 35 coun ies o he pe iod be ween 2005 and 2018. The esul s indica e ha an inc ease
in digi al de elopmen will lead o a educ ion in he po e y headcoun a e. These esul s imply
ha by inc easing access o echnology, coun ies could help educe hei le el o po e y. In his
pape , we will also analyze he way in which adop ing digi al de elopmen leads o be e economic
pe o mance when aced wi h he COVID-19 pandemic. The esul s o he p esen s udy a e o g ea
in e es o he scien iﬁc communi y and he public due o he implica ions o digi al de elopmen in
he ﬁeld o economics and he combined e ec o his phenomenon and he COVID-19 pandemic. We
hus conclude ha by encou aging digi al de elopmen and h ough adop ing new echnologies, he
go e nmen can lead o he e adica ion o po e y. This seems coun e in ui i e due o he ac ha
in es men in shel e and p ima y goods can be seen as one o he p ima y ways o de eloping he
economy. We conclude ha be e and mo e consis en esul s ega ding he educ ion o po e y can
be ob ained by inc easing he digi al de elopmen o a coun y.
Keywo ds:
po e y; panel da a; digi aliza ion index; economic de elopmen ; COVID-19 pandemic;
digi al de elopmen ; Sus ainable De elopmen Goals (SDGs)
1. In oduc ion
One o he mos discussed p oblems o he p esen is sus ainabili y. The p oblem o
sus ainable de elopmen was deﬁned o he ﬁ s ime in i s p esen o m in he B und land
Repo [
1
] published in Oc obe 1987, whe e he concep gained addi ional ocus ega ding
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 10667. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/su141710667 h ps://www.mdpi.com/jou nal/sus ainabili y
59

Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 10667
he building o a socially inclusi e and en i onmen ally sus ainable o m o economic
de elopmen (a ﬁ s , he concep had a bigge and g ea e ocus on he en i onmen , such
as in he deﬁni ion o e ed by he In e na ional Union o he Conse a ion o Na u e [
2
]
in 1980).
Taking in o accoun he impo ance o he concep , he p esen pape p oposes a
model o analyzing he inﬂuence o digi al de elopmen on he po e y headcoun a io
as calcula ed by he Wo ld Bank. We conside ed he po e y headcoun a io o be a
de e minan ac o o sus ainable de elopmen due o i s p io i y on he agenda o he
Uni ed Na ions in he 2030 Sus ainable De elopmen Goals [
3
]. In he ollowing sec ions,
we will e iew he a icles ha we conside ed o be o he highes impo ance in he
de elopmen o he p esen pape , and we will de elop a digi aliza ion index and quan i y
i s inﬂuence by using he me hodology o he ec o au o eg essi e model o he panel
da a. The scope o his pape is o answe he ollowing esea ch ques ion:
RQ: How does he inc ease in echnological de elopmen inﬂuence he a e o po e y
a a na ional le el, and how does digi al de elopmen ela e o he esponse o he
COVID-19 pandemic?
The p esen a icle was de eloped as a esul o s udying he li e a u e, wi h he
scope o assessing he way in which sus ainable de elopmen and po e y ela e o digi al
de elopmen and p esen ing he main opics o esea ch in he ﬁeld o he Sus ainable
De elopmen Goals and hei implemen a ion. F om his ex ensi e s udy, he au ho s
disco e ed a esea ch gap ep esen ed by he way in which he ela ion be ween digi al
de elopmen , exp essed as an indica o measu ed by p ecise me ics, has an inﬂuence on
he po e y headcoun a e. We decided o analyze he way in which he eal impac o
echnology adop ion can be quan iﬁed. In o de o measu e his, he au ho s decided o
implemen a ec o au o eg essi e model wi h panel da a, wi h his being, in ou opinion,
an o iginal con ibu ion o his ﬁeld o s udy (i.e., he applica ion o quan i a i e me hods
wi h calculable esul s). Ano he in e es ing app oach ha we de eloped in he p esen
pape is he building o a digi al de elopmen index. This allowed us o compa e he le el
o de elopmen o he analyzed coun ies and also gain a be e unde s anding o hei
e olu ion in he gi en ime ame. The a icle also allows o a wo ldwide iew o digi al
de elopmen and echnology adop ion by anking 175 coun ies o he yea 2019. In o de
o p esen he esul s o he esea ch, he au ho s decided o ﬁ s p esen a b ie discussion
ega ding he main opics o esea ch in he ﬁeld o he Sus ainable De elopmen Goals
and hei implemen a ion. In his a icle, we also in es iga e he ela ion be ween digi al
de elopmen and esilience o ex e nal shocks. One o he mo e signiﬁcan shocks o he
las decades was he COVID-19 pandemic, and in his pape , we will y o show ha he
mo e de eloped coun ies om a digi al s andpoin we e less impac ed by he pandemic.
This li e a u e e iew is con inued by a quan i a i e esea ch s udy ha consis s o
using a panel da a ec o au o eg essi e model o be e unde s and he ela ion be ween
he a e o po e y and he digi al de elopmen o a coun y. A he end o he pape , we
p esen a se o discussions ega ding he ela ion o he ﬁndings o he ele an scien iﬁc
li e a u e and he esea ch limi a ions, along wi h u he s udy di ec ions, and a sec ion
o conclusions in which he au ho s p esen he heo e ical implica ions o he p esen
s udy, he possibili y o he model o be used by in e na ional o ganiza ions o p omo ing
he applica ion o echnology a o dabili y p og ams and he pe spec i es o his ﬁeld
o knowledge in ligh o he p esen a icle. This s udy akes in o conside a ion only
he co ela ion be ween he digi al de elopmen and po e y, wi h his being due o
he ac ha he au ho s wan ed o ha e an isola ed iew o how digi al de elopmen
and po e y a e ela ed. The au ho s ecognize he ac ha po e y is a e y complex
subjec wi h many unde lying connec ions including bu no limi ed o socie al ins i u ions,
educa ion, democ acy, ule o law and o he ac o s. E en i he p esen s udy o e s a small
insigh in o he way in which po e y is ela ed o digi aliza ion, due o he men ioned
limi a ions, we conside i o be o in e es because o i s global scale and o gene alizing
he ela ion be ween po e y and digi al de elopmen . The o iginali y o he cu en pape
60
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 10667
is ep esen ed by he ac ha we p esen a wo ldwide iew o he digi aliza ion p ocess
and he ela ion be ween digi al de elopmen and he educ ion o he po e y headcoun
as a signiﬁcan inﬂuence on his phenomenon. Addi ionally, he p esen pape also aims
o make sense o he pa e ns ega ding digi al de elopmen a a wo ldwide le el by
p esen ing he esul s o a ec o au o eg essi e model wi h dynamic panel da a o he
pe iod be ween 2005 and 2018. These de elopmen s and he o e iew o he scien iﬁc
li e a u e lead o he conclusion ha an inc ease in digi al de elopmen a a coun y le el
will lead o a dec ease in he po e y headcoun a io, hus making an impac in he con ex
o he Sus ainable De elopmen Goals p omo ed by he Uni ed Na ions.
2. Li e a u e Re iew
In he ollowing sec ion, he au ho s de elop, in a b ie manne , he h ee main poin s
o in e es o he scien iﬁc li e a u e ha we e conside ed when de eloping ou pape
in o de o s udy he ela ion be ween digi al de elopmen and he po e y headcoun
a e. This e iew p esen s in an o ganized s uc u e he me hodologies used and he main
inﬂuences ha he au ho s had in de eloping his pape . In acco dance wi h his, he
au ho s decided o p esen he main pape s in each o he h ee main iden iﬁed ideas
ela ing o ou esea ch ques ion.
2.1. Sus ainable De elopmen Goals and Thei Implemen a ion a a Wo ldwide Scale
One o he mos ci ed pape s ha analyzed he concep o he Sus ainable De elopmen
Goals is he one w i en by G iggs e al. [
4
] wi h he i le “Policy: Sus ainable de elopmen
goals o people and plane ”. The conclusions o his pape indica e ha global s abili y
depends on in eg a ion o he goals, such as comba ing po e y and secu ing human well-
being in he plans o he Uni ed Na ions. Ano he in e es ing a icle is he one w i en by
F ench and Koze [
5
]. This a icle analyzes he ways in which s a is ics ega ding po e y
a e calcula ed and hei accu acy o he indica o s ha measu e he le el o po e y. This
pape es ima es ha in 2013, app oxima ely 385 million child en we e li ing on less han
USD 1.90 pe day. These da a a e, howe e , s a ed as being an app oxima ion due o he
ac ha 63% o coun ies do no publish da a ega ding child po e y, wi h his being
in he con ex o he UN Sus ainable De elopmen Goals agenda o 2030, in which he
e adica ion o po e y is he ﬁ s p io i y.
An in e es ing o e iew o he subjec is desc ibed in “A Sys ema ic S udy o Sus ain-
able De elopmen Goal (SDG) In e ac ions” by P adhan [
6
]. We decided o analyze he
Sus ainable De elopmen Goals se by he UN Agenda o 2030 o po en ial syne gies
be ween hem. I is s a ed ha he ﬁ s goal o he agenda ( he e adica ion o po e y)
has a syne gis ic ela ion wi h mos o he o he goals, and he wel h goal ( esponsible
consump ion and p oduc ion) is desc ibed by he au ho s as being he mos likely o su -
e ade-o s. This is due o he implica ions o educing he use o coal and oil use in
indus y which, i ca ied ou in an unp epa ed economy, will lead o unemploymen and
po e y. The a icle concludes ha in o de o he goals o become ob ainable by he
227 analyzed economies, hey mus be adop ed in a non-obs uc i e way, and he cu en
s a egies o implemen a ion should ake in o accoun he le el o de elopmen o he
analyzed coun ies. Ano he in e es ing pape is he one w i en by Filho e al. [
7
], which
p esen s a se ies o h ee case s udies o show how he Sus ainable De elopmen Goals a e
an oppo uni y o ad ance equal oppo uni ies and os e he economic de elopmen o
coun ies by p omo ing sus ainable de elopmen . The opic o sus ainable de elopmen
has been linked in he li e a u e wi h he esilience o he economy. One such pape is
he one w i en by Folke e al. [
8
]. In his a icle, he au ho s desc ibe wo undamen al
e o s in he design o en i onmen al policies: he implici assump ion ha he ecosys em’s
esponses o he inﬂuence gene a ed by humans a e deﬁned by linea i y and p edic abili y
and ha he en i onmen and human socie y can be ea ed sepa a ely when designing a
policy. The au ho s used he concep o esilience, deﬁned as he capaci y o change, lea n
61
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 10667
and de elop, o analyze he bes s a egies o inc ease he economy’s capaci y and adap in
he p esen clima e.
Ano he in e es ing iew on he subjec is p esen ed in he a icle w i en by Hickel [
9
].
Acco ding o he au ho , he e in is an inhe en con adic ion in he wo sides o he
sus ainable de elopmen concep , as s a ed in he Sus ainable De elopmen Goals in o
he Uni ed Na ions be ween he goal o yea ly global economic g ow h o 3% and he
p o ec ion o he en i onmen (as s a ed in goals 6, 12, 13, 14, and 15). The pape s a es
ha he by accep ing he global economic g ow h a e a 3%, i is almos impossible o
achie e any educ ions in he agg ega e global esou ce use. In ou opinion, his o e s an
in e es ing iew, due o he al e na i e o downscaling esou ce use in o de o each he
a ge o clima e change a e educ ion in high-income na ions by in oducing quan iﬁed
objec i es o esou ce use.
In he scien iﬁc li e a u e, he e a e iews [
10
–
12
] ha s a e ha he e olu ion o sus-
ainable de elopmen is di ﬁcul o quan i y, and i s inﬂuence on mac oeconomic indica o s
is challenging o analyze. In his pape , we aim o p esen he means o measu ing he im-
pac o digi al de elopmen on an essen ial pa o sus ainable de elopmen : he educ ion
o he po e y headcoun ( his being pa o he ﬁ s wo Sus ainable De elopmen Goals
( educing po e y and e adica ing amine) s a ed by he Uni ed Na ions).
In o he a icles [
13
,
14
], we can see ha he ele an scien iﬁc li e a u e conside s
using indica o s o assessing he e olu ion o he Sus ainable De elopmen Goals agenda.
These a emp s deal wi h s udying he p og ess o a sho pe iod o ime and o a ious
egions. Due o he ac ha , in he p esen pape , we seek o analyze he p og ess owa d
he educ ion o po e y which has been mani es ing in he las wo decades, we decided
o use he po e y headcoun a e as a p oxy o sus ainable de elopmen , and we aimed
o de e mine i s co ela ions and ela ions wi h a echnology de elopmen index.
In addi ion o he men ioned scien iﬁc pape s, a majo con ibu ion in he ad ance-
men o he measu emen o po e y is he 2030 Agenda i sel [
3
]. This ep esen s a holis ic
app oach o he p oblems ha he Uni ed Na ions conside o be undamen al o sol e un il
2030. In he case o he ﬁ s goal, which is he e adica ion o po e y in all i s o ms, he
agenda o e s se e al a ge s: e adica e ex eme po e y, educe po e y by a leas 50%, im-
plemen na ionally app op ia e social p o ec ion sys ems, equal igh s o owne ship, basic
se ices, echnology and economic esou ces, build esilience o en i onmen al economic
and social disas e s, he mobiliza ion o esou ces o end po e y and he es ablishmen o
po e y e adica ion amewo ks a all le els. As s a ed, we a e in e es ed in he e adica ion
o ex eme po e y. The indica o ha he UN conside s o be he mos impo an is he
p opo ion o he popula ion li ing below he in e na ional po e y line, agg ega ed by sex,
age, employmen s a us and geog aphical loca ion. The UN conside s he po e y line o
be USD 1.90 pe day, and in his pape , we used he USD 5.50 po e y line indica o due o
i s a ailabili y o mo e coun ies and because we conside ed ha o de eloped coun ies,
he USD 5.50 pe day h eshold was close o he na ional po e y line (which is linked
o an indica o o he second a ge — educe po e y by a leas 50%—wi h he indica o
o he p opo ion o he popula ion li ing below he na ional po e y line). Fo example,
he USA po e y line was USD 35 pe day in 2020 [
15
], and India’s was USD 12 pe day in
u ban a eas and USD 7.50 in u al a eas in 2005 [16].
By analyzing he li e a u e ega ding he Sus ainable De elopmen Goals and hei
ela ion o he economic de elopmen o a coun y, we can s a e ha hey ep esen mo e
han a lis o goals. They ep esen a de elopmen p og am o be e ing he u u e o he
wo ld and a bluep in o sus ainable de elopmen . Wi h ha being said, in he p esen
pape , we a emp o analyze he ela ion be ween digi al de elopmen and he po e y
a e. This is due o he a emp o ob ain a ocused iew on he ela ion be ween hese
wo a iables in o de o obse e i encou aging digi al de elopmen (e.g., by subsidizing
he acquisi ion o compu e s) could lead o ad ancemen in he Sus ainable De elopmen
Goals. In addi ion, he adop ion o echnology could also lead o an inc ease in equi y due
o mo e access o in o ma ion and oppo uni ies.
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Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 10667
2.2. Measu ing he Impac o Digi al De elopmen on Po e y
In he scien iﬁc li e a u e, he e has been a numbe o a icles ha ocus on analyz-
ing he e ec o digi al de elopmen on he po e y le el. One such pape is he one
w i en by Kwilinski e al. [
17
], whe e he digi al economy and socie y index we e used
o e alua e he digi aliza ion o he coun ies o he Eu opean Union and we e analyzed
along wi h he AROPE indica o (people a isk o po e y and social exclusion). As he
main esea ch me hods, he pape implemen s a co ela ion analysis and uses he Mon e
Ca lo me hod o ake in o conside a ion he p obabili y ha a change in he alue o he
AROPE indica o will happen in 2021. The conclusions s a e clea ly ha he coun ies wi h
a highe digi aliza ion le el ha e a lowe pe cen age o people in po e y and lowe social
exclusion isk.
O he a icles [
18
,
19
] a gue ha in he case o he A ican con inen , mobile phone
de elopmen has led o a signiﬁcan inc ease in in o mal ﬁnancial de elopmen , e en
hough i s e ec s a e less no iceable a he mac oeconomic le el, and ha he use o mobile
phones wi h in e ne access in 44 A ican coun ies in he pe iod be ween 2000 and 2016 has
led o an inc ease in ﬁnancial inclusion. O he li e a u e e iew-based s udies [
20
] claim
ha he e a e ew pape s ha can p esen a causal in e ence be ween ICT de elopmen and
po e y. The in e ac ion be ween he in e ne and mobile phone access o o he echnologies
and po e y is a opic o ocus o many pape s [
21
–
25
], which ha e applied a mul i ude o
me hodologies in o de o analyze his ela ion o di e en coun ies.
Addi ionally, in he scien iﬁc li e a u e, he e has been a end owa d analyzing he
impac s o echnology as a means o inclusion and access o in o ma ion on po e y in
ei he Sou h Asia o Sub-Saha an A ica [
26
] o in La in Ame ica [
27
]. The s udies conclude
ha in he case o Sou h Asia and Sub-Saha an A ica, he adop ion o new echnologies
is an impo an ac o in sus aining he educ ion o po e y in de eloping coun ies.
In he case o La in Ame ica, he s udy p oposes a he e odox ype o g ow h s a egy in
o de o coun e he pe cei ed inequali y gene a ed by he accele a ion o weal h c ea ion. In
s udying indi idual coun ies, om se e al s udies ha we conside ed o be o in e es [
28
–
31
],
due o hei implica ions o he p esen a icle, we ound ha he majo i y o he esul s
indica e ha he impac o in e ne adop ion was mainly a posi i e one, as i educed he
a es o po e y. Howe e , a p oblem s ill emains ega ding he a o dabili y o compu e s
and in e ne access.
Fu he mo e, in se e al a icles [
32
,
33
], he e has been a ocus on he ela ion be ween
he in e ne and echnology and he knowledge economy. This ela ion is signiﬁcan
because he g ow h in he pe cen age o in e ne use s can inc ease he ansi ion o he
knowledge economy, and his a o s he educ ion o he po e y a e.
2.3. Using an Index o Measu e Digi al De elopmen
The use o an index o measu e digi al de elopmen has been widely desc ibed in
he scien iﬁc li e a u e, and se e al a icles [
34
–
37
] ha e p oposed and used indices o
measu ing digi al de elopmen , such as he one w i en by A chibugi and Coco [
34
],
which had a ocus on he de eloping coun ies and calcula ed a p op ie a y index—A Co—
based on h ee main componen s: he c ea ion o echnology, he a ailable echnological
in as uc u e, and he le el o de elopmen o human skills.
In he p esen pape , we conside ed ha a be e ocus o ou index was he pe sonal
adop ion o echnological de elopmen . As such, he au ho s used indica o s ha we e
ela ed o he adop ion o echnology by o dina y ci izens. App oaches ega ding he mea-
su emen o he impac o he pe sonal adop ion o echnology ha e been published [
38
–
41
],
wi h he no el y o ou app oach being he e o o quan i y he le el o digi al pe sonal
adop ion a he coun y le el by using a digi al de elopmen index buil wi h da a made
a ailable by he In e na ional Telecommunica ion Union.
Ano he impo an ﬁeld o s udy in he scien iﬁc li e a u e is he analysis o he
di e ences in digi al de elopmen be ween di e en egions o a coun y o be ween
coun ies [
42
–
52
]. These s udies analyze he concep o he digi al di ide. The digi al di ide
63
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 10667
Table 2. This able p esen s he ankings o he coun ies acco ding o he index.
Rank Coun y
1 Hong Kong, China
2 Uni ed A ab Emi a es
3 Japan
4 Ko ea (Rep. o )
5 Ge many
6 Singapo e
7 Swi ze land
8 Uni ed Kingdom
9 F ance
10 Ne he lands
128 Cen al A ican Rep.
129 E hiopia
130 Libe ia
131 Sou h Sudan
In Table 2, we decided o implemen a es ic ion ega ding he size o he popula ion
o he analyzed coun ies. This was pe o med o elimina e he bias o he index owa d
small coun ies (e.g., Luxembou g, Seychelles, e c.). The esul s o he ull da a sample a e
p esen ed in Appendix A (Table A1). We decided o p esen a e sion o he able wi hou
he small coun ies because we conside ed ha he esul s we e signiﬁcan o bigge and
la ge coun ies, due o he index being composed o indica o s ha we e p esen ed o
100 inhabi an s.
In Figu e 3, he au ho s p esen he e olu ion o ou coun ies om he da abase ha
we e conside ed o be o in e es : Hong Kong, he Uni ed S a es o Ame ica, Ge many,
and Sou h A ica. We can see ha all he coun ies ha e e ol ed o e ime, bu he digi al
index saw signiﬁcan g ow h in he case o Hong Kong in he las 5 yea s. On he y-axis, we
p esen he alue o he digi al de elopmen index, and on he x-axis, we p esen he yea s
o which he index was calcula ed.
Figu e 3. E olu ion o he index o he selec ed coun ies.
By analyzing Figu e 3, we can see ha in he case o Sou h A ica, he digi al de el-
opmen index saw a signiﬁcan inc ease in he analyzed ime pe iod. The au ho s also
obse ed he ac ha he analyzed coun ies expe ienced g ow h in digi al de elopmen ,
bu he di e ence be ween Hong Kong and Sou h A ica emained ela i ely cons an o
70

Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 10667
he analyzed ime pe iod. Mo eo e , he US, Ge many, and Sou h A ica we e close in he
e ms o digi al de elopmen in 2019 compa ed wi h hei posi ions in 2000.
4.2. The Rela ion be ween he Po e y Headcoun Ra io and Digi aliza ion
We decided o s udy he ela ion be ween he digi al de elopmen index and he
headcoun po e y a e (as measu ed by he po e y headcoun a io a USD 5.50 a day
(2011 PPP) (pe cen age o popula ion) [
64
]) by applying a wo-s ep dynamic panel ec o
au o eg essi e es ima ion wi h wo lags. In he model, we used he ﬁ s di e ence o he
indica o s by implemen ing a na u al loga i hm di e ence be ween he cu en alue and
he las alue egis e ed by he a iable. The da a used o he model we e o he ime
pe iod be ween 2005 and 2018 o he ollowing coun ies: A menia, Aus ia, Belgium,
Bela us, Cos a Rica, he Czech Republic, Denma k, he Dominican Republic, Ecuado , Spain,
Es onia, Finland, F ance, Geo gia, G eece, Hondu as, Hunga y, Indonesia, Kazakhs an,
Li huania, La ia, Moldo ia, he Ne he lands, No way, Panama, Pe u, Poland, Po ugal,
Pa aguay, he Russian Fede a ion, Slo enia, Sweden, Tu key, Uk aine, and he Uni ed
S a es o Ame ica. We selec ed hese 35 coun ies due o he a ailable da a ega ding he
po e y headcoun a io. In his way, only hese coun ies had all he da a a ailable o
he analyzed ime pe iod. This explains he way in which he model was cons uc ed.
One use ul indica ion was ha we had coun ies om almos all o he con inen s (excep
Oceania), and his allowed us o s ill p esen a global o e iew o he selec ed da a.
The esul s o he es ima ion o he model a e p esen ed in Figu e 4. We can s a e ha
he po e y a e was inﬂuenced by he digi al de elopmen index o bo h lags. Fo he
ﬁ s lag o he digi al de elopmen index, he alue o he coe ﬁcien was
−
1.7551 and was
signiﬁcan o a h eshold o 95% o he po e y a e headcoun . Mo eo e , he second
lag o he digi al de elopmen index was signiﬁcan in he equa ion o he po e y a e,
ha ing a alue o 1.3426. Consequen ly, we can s a e ha he alues o he po e y a e
headcoun we e inﬂuenced by he alues o he digi al de elopmen index, wi h he alue
o he index in he p e ious yea exe ing a signiﬁcan inﬂuence on educing he po e y
a e headcoun , and he coe ﬁcien o he second lag indica ed a posi i e inﬂuence on he
po e y headcoun a e. This could be due o he ac ha he ime in e al was sho and
may ha e p esen ed con adic o y phases o he e olu ion o socie y.
Figu e 4. Vec o au o eg ession model esul s o he analyzed da a.
71
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 10667
In Figu e 4, ID__1 ep esen s he e olu ion o he digi al de elopmen index, and
he Po _ a e ep esen s he e olu ion o he po e y a e calcula ed as he loga i hmic
di e ence o he alues o he po e y headcoun a io a USD 5.50 a day (2011 PPP)
(pe cen age o popula ion) [
86
], as calcula ed by he Wo ld Bank. In Figu e 5, we can see
he esul s o he impulse esponse unc ion o he ec o au o eg essi e model.
Figu e 5. Impulse esponse unc ion o he po e y headcoun a e o he digi aliza ion index.
By analyzing he esul s in Figu e 5, we can see ha he e was a ce ain signiﬁcan
impac om he po e y a e headcoun on he digi al de elopmen index. This is impo an
because i implies ha he po e y a e can be dec eased by he digi al de elopmen index.
Mo eo e , he shock had an e ec on he las pe iods analyzed. E en hough he impulse
esponse unc ion seemed o depic a small bu signiﬁcan e ec , he esul s o he VAR
model es ima ion as s a ed p esen ed a signiﬁcan coe ﬁcien o
−
1.7551 o he a iable
o he ﬁ s lag o digi al de elopmen in he equa ion ha app oxima ed he alue o he
po e y headcoun a io.
4.3. The Pe o mance o he Digi al De eloped Economies du ing he COVID-19 Pandemic
In he ollowing sec ion, we p esen an analysis ega ding he way in which he g oss
domes ic p oduc s o he mos digi ally de eloped coun ies ha e e ol ed in he ime o
he COVID-19 pandemic. Fo his, we ake he mos de eloped coun ies acco ding o ou
digi al de elopmen index and compa e hem o he o he coun ies in he sample.
In Figu e 6, he au ho s depic he e olu ion o he economic g ow h alues o
ou coun ies ha we e conside ed o be in he ca ego y o he mos -de eloped coun ies
om he s udied sample (Swi ze land, Ge many, Japan and Sou h Ko ea) and compa ed
hem o he a e age o he coun ies ha a e membe s o he OECD, Eu opean Union and
he eu o a ea.
By analyzing he ﬁgu e, we can obse e ha he digi ally de eloped coun ies had
mo e s able economic g ow h in he pandemic pe iod when compa ed wi h he a e age o
he Eu opean Union, eu ozone o he OECD. This ac indica es ha a highe le el o digi al
de elopmen led o a mo e equilib a ed esponse o he pandemic’s shock. The comple e
da a o he ﬁgu e a e depic ed in Table 3, wi h he da a being a ailable om he OECD
da abase [93].
72
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 10667
Ͳϭϯ
Ͳϴ
Ͳϯ
Ϯ
ϳ
ϭϮ
ϮϬϮϬͲYϭ ϮϬϮϬͲYϮ ϮϬϮϬͲYϯ ϮϬϮϬͲYϰ ϮϬϮϭͲYϭ ϮϬϮϭͲYϮ ϮϬϮϭͲYϯ ϮϬϮϭͲYϰ
, h :WE <KZ ϭϵ K hϮϳ
Figu e 6. E olu ion o he economic g ow h o he s udied coun ies.
Table 3. Economic g ow h o he analyzed coun ies as pe cen ages.
Da e CHE DEU JPN KOR EA19 OECD EU27
2020-Q1 −1.59 −1.76 0.49 −1.26 −3.53 −1.70 −3.09
2020-Q2 −6.14 −10.00 −7.90 −3.05 −11.67 −10.45 −11.27
2020-Q3 6.30 9.04 5.28 2.35 12.82 9.49 11.91
2020-Q4 0.04 0.74 1.76 1.21 −0.40 1.02 −0.20
2021-Q1 −0.24 −1.68 −0.40 1.72 −0.12 0.75 0.07
2021-Q2 1.97 2.17 0.64 0.83 2.16 1.72 2.11
2021-Q3 1.87 1.67 −0.80 0.21 2.32 1.12 2.18
2021-Q4 0.16 −0.35 0.98 1.34 0.25 1.21 0.45
In Table 3, he au ho s p esen he esul s o p esen ing he economic g ow h om he
ﬁ s qua e o 2020 o he ou h qua e o 2021. The analyzed coun ies we e Swi ze land,
Ge many, Japan and Ko ea. In he able, we also p esen he alues epo ed o he
eu o a ea, he OECD and he Eu opean Union. The coun ies ha we e he mos digi ally
de eloped, such as Japan ( anked hi d in 2019) and Sou h Ko ea ( anked ou h in 2019) had
a g ow h a e highe han he eu ozone, OECD and he Eu opean Union. In he ollowing
pa , we p esen he discussions ega ding he ﬁndings o his a icle and he conclusions.
By analyzing hese esul s, we can conclude ha he coun ies ha had be e digi al
de elopmen had a be e e olu ion du ing he COVID-19 pandemic and also had a less
powe ul impac han in he case o he a e age o he OECD, he eu o a ea and he
Eu opean Union coun ies. The numbe o coun ies in he sample was ela i ely small
compa ed wi h he numbe o coun ies used in he index (35 s. 175) due o he lack o
da a ega ding he po e y headcoun a io o he pe iod be ween 2005 and 2018.
5. Discussion
In he p esen a icle, we desc ibed how o compu e an index o digi al de elopmen
ha akes in o accoun he pe sonal adop ion o echnology. This was achie ed by aking
in o accoun da a made a ailable by he In e na ional Telecommunica ion Union in o de
o ob ain a be e unde s anding o he le el o de elopmen o each coun y and o e s he
possibili y o compa ing he digi al de elopmen o he coun ies.
Some esea che s [
94
] e ealed ha he anspo a ion and accommoda ion sec o s
ha e been signiﬁcan ly a ec ed by COVID-19- ela ed lockdowns, bu on he con a y, o he
sec o s o he sha ing economy such as eelance wo k, s eaming se ices and online
deli e ies ha e eached inc easing le els o de elopmen and p oﬁ . A he quan i a i e
le el, he mos likely e ec o he COVID-19 pandemic on he global economy has been
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Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 10667
quan iﬁed o be be ween USD 5.8 illion and 8.8 illion, equi alen o 6.4–9.7% o he
global g oss domes ic p oduc (GDP) as app oxima ed by he Asian De elopmen Bank
(ADB) on May 2020 [
95
]. Acco ding o o he esea che s [
96
], he COVID-19 pandemic
aised unp eceden ed challenges while ea nes ly a ec ing all businesses wo ldwide.
The esul s o he ec o au o eg essi e model led o he conclusion ha he e is a
signiﬁcan s a is ical inﬂuence om he digi al de elopmen index ha we cons uc ed
in his pape and he po e y headcoun a e as desc ibed by he Wo ld Bank indica o
(po e y headcoun a io a USD 5.50 a day (2011 PPP) (pe cen age o popula ion)) [
86
]. This
led o he idea ha by inc easing he access o echnology, go e nmen s could con ibu e
o he educ ion o po e y. This educ ion in po e y could lead o he ad ancemen o
he Sus ainable De elopmen Goals and p og ess in implemen ing he 2030 Agenda o he
UN [
3
]. The p esen ed ﬁndings a e simila o he ones ob ained in o he pape s [
26
–
31
],
wi h he excep ion ha he da a sample used in his a icle con ained coun ies om all
o e he wo ld, and we p o ided a compa ison o he inﬂuence o digi al de elopmen on
he educ ion o po e y ha is easie o unde s and a a global le el. In his con ex , we can
s a e ha he digi al de elopmen o a coun y leads o a educ ion in he po e y headcoun .
These esul s ag ee wi h hose o he majo i y o he pape s in he scien iﬁc li e a u e. An
in e es ing de elopmen con ibu ion is he way in which digi al de elopmen is measu ed
in he p esen a icle. The au ho s decided o use an index ha measu ed he pe sonal
adop ion o echnology due o he e ec ha echnology a an indi idual le el has on
he educ ion in po e y. The use ulness o he p esen esea ch is he ac ha i p o es
ha he adop ion o echnology a he pe sonal le el leads o a educ ion in po e y. This
could be used as he basis o shaping policies ega ding he e adica ion o po e y a he
in e na ional le el. By inc easing he access o echnology among he popula ion, ci izens
could access job oppo uni ies ha hey o he wise would no ha e seen, o hey could
ha e access o in o ma ion a an unp eceden ed scale. These esul s could be seen as a
con inua ion o he wo k conduc ed in se e al pape s [
43
,
46
,
50
–
52
] ega ding he way in
which echnology inc eases he oppo uni y o pa icipa e in he economy o all he ci izens.
In his case, he au ho s ecommend an inc ease in he in e es ha go e nmen s ha e in
he adop ion o echnology a he pe sonal le el by c ea ing p og ams which encou age he
use o and access o echnology and also make he acquisi ion o IT de ices easie (e.g., his
could be achie ed wi h ouche s o discoun s o an indi idual’s ﬁ s compu e ).
In addi ion, we no e ha he esul s o his pape seem o gene alize ce ain ﬁndings
o speciﬁc con inen s [
18
,
19
,
26
,
27
], such as he beneﬁcial e ec o digi al de elopmen on
he educ ion o po e y in A ica and o he 35 coun ies analyzed in he model (which
a e mos ly in Eu ope and he No h and Sou h Ame ican con inen s). In his way, ou s udy
demons a es a clea ela ion be ween digi al de elopmen (concen a ed on he pe sonal
adop ion o echnology due o he composi ion o he index: he pe cen age o indi iduals
using he in e ne , he mobile cellula subsc ip ions o 100 people and he ﬁxed elephone
subsc ip ions o 100 people) and he educ ion o po e y. This conﬁ ms he ﬁndings o
se e al s udies [
43
,
46
,
50
–
52
,
67
–
70
], which s a ed ha he adop ion o he in e ne leads o
he educ ion o po e y. The mechanism o his inﬂuence is, as s a ed by Dawood [
52
],
o he case o he u al communi ies o no he n Malaysia, and i wo ks by encou aging
a connec ion be ween indi iduals and ac ion a he g ass oo s le el. This implies ha
echnology changes socie y by gi ing powe o he people o communica e and c ea e
g oups in an easie and mo e in e es -based way. Fo example, a g oup ha p omo es he
c ea ion o pa king lo s in a ce ain a ea o he ci y could p omo e he idea on he in e ne
and, by doing his, make i mo e isible o he ci y council. In his way, we conside ha
he adop ion o he in e ne will lead o he educ ion o po e y by inc easing he eedom
o he popula ion and access o in o ma ion, which p omo es a be e unde s anding o he
way go e nmen unc ions.
Addi ionally, he index p esen ed in his pape could be used on i s own o assessing
he digi al de elopmen o he wo ld’s coun ies. In his way, he index is simila o he one
de eloped by A chibugi and Coco [
34
] in hei pape “A New Indica o o Technological
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Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 10667
Capabili ies o De eloped and De eloping Coun ies (A co)”, which anked Sweden as
he mos digi ally de eloped coun y in 2000. In ou index, he mos digi ally de eloped
coun y in 2019 was Hong Kong, which in [
34
] was numbe 21. This g ow h seems o
be conﬁ med by he esul s p esen ed in Figu e 3. In his way, he index de eloped in
ou a icle, along wi h he digi al di ide indices de eloped in o he pape s [
42
–
52
], can
o e a way o compa e digi al de elopmen and he p og ess o coun ies in he adop ion
o echnology. Possible u u e esea che s could, by using he me hodology desc ibed in
his pape , compa e esul s and see he way in which coun ies e ol ed om a digi al
de elopmen s andpoin . The p esen pape desc ibes an o iginal and in e es ing esea ch
s udy ega ding he inﬂuence o he pe sonal adop ion o digi al echnology on he po e y
a e. The au ho s also app ecia e ha he esul s o he p esen s udy could be o in e es o
go e nmen al ins i u ions and o in e na ional o ganiza ions such as he Uni ed Na ions
and he OECD due o i s implica ions o he planning and achie emen o he Sus ainable
De elopmen Goals, as s a ed in he 2030 Agenda [
3
]. In his way, he p esen s udy could
inspi e simila app oaches and lead o ad ancemen o he a e o he e adica ion o po e y
by making echnology a ailable o all ci izens.
Rega ding he ela ion be ween digi al de elopmen and he COVID-19 pandemic,
we can s a e ha he economies o he mo e digi ally de eloped coun ies ha e been mo e
s able in he ace o he COVID-19 pandemic. These obse a ions a e in line wi h he
ele an scien iﬁc li e a u e [
59
–
75
], meaning ha digi al de elopmen helps de elop a
s onge economy ( ha esponds o ex e nal shocks, such as he COVID-19 pandemic,
be e ). This obse a ion leads o he idea ha by de eloping he digi al capaci y o a
coun y, he au ho s can imp o e i s esponse in he ace o he COVID-19 pandemic.
The p esen ed esul s a e simila o hose in he scien iﬁc li e a u e, and hey p esen
a co ela ed and signiﬁcan iew o digi al de elopmen as a key ac o in educing he
po e y headcoun a io. Ou esul s a e simila o he ones p esen ed in se e al ci ed
s udies [
43
,
46
,
50
–
52
,
67
–
70
], and by gene alizing aspec s ha we e obse ed a con inen al
le el by se e al a icles [
18
,
19
,
26
,
27
], hese esul s should be o in e es o he scien iﬁc and
academic communi ies as well as esea che s in he economic a ea.
6. Conclusions
S a ing om he esea ch hypo hesis s a ed in he in oduc ion, (“How does he
inc ease in echnological de elopmen inﬂuence he a e o po e y a he na ional le el,
and how does digi al de elopmen ela e o he esponse o he COVID-19 pandemic?”)
we can say ha his esea ch s udy p esen s a clea and signiﬁcan inﬂuence be ween
he digi al de elopmen o a coun y and he po e y headcoun a io, as calcula ed by
he Wo ld Bank [
64
]. The p esen pape shows a co ela ion be ween he adop ion o
echnology a he pe sonal le el (due o he way in which he digi al de elopmen index
is calcula ed: conside ing he pe cen age o indi iduals using he in e ne , he mobile
cellula subsc ip ions pe 100 people and he ﬁxed elephone subsc ip ions pe 100 people)
and he educ ion in he po e y headcoun a io. In addi ion, his s udy’s con ibu ions
o he gene al ﬁeld o knowledge ega ding he analysis o digi al de elopmen , as well
as i s impo ance in he educ ion o he po e y headcoun a io, a e signiﬁcan and
in e es ing. Fi s , his s udy es ablishes a connec ion be ween he de elopmen o he
digi al capaci y o a coun y, as measu ed by using he digi al de elopmen index, and
economic de elopmen . The index is calcula ed as he sum o he ollowing indica o s: he
pe cen age o indi iduals using he in e ne , he mobile cellula subsc ip ions pe 100 people
and he ﬁxed elephone subsc ip ions pe 100 people, as published by he In e na ional
Telecommunica ion Union [
76
]. This connec ion is simila o he one desc ibed in se e al
pape s [
34
–
37
] ha ha e p oposed and used indices o measu ing digi al de elopmen ,
such as he one w i en by A chibugi and Coco [
34
]. These in e es ing esul s a e doubled by
he in e es ing connec ion be ween he digi al de elopmen o a coun y and he educ ion
o he po e y headcoun a io. This esul is o g ea in e es due o he in e es ing
e ec s ha digi aliza ion has o inc easing he weal h o na ions. In his case, such an
75

Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 10667
obse a ion, hough s a ed in se e al pape s [
18
,
19
], only applied o limi ed da ase s ha
we e ela ed o single con inen s. Fo example, Asongu [
18
] and E ans [
19
] p esen ed a
hypo hesis ha explains, in he case o he A ican con inen , he way in which mobile
phone de elopmen led o a signiﬁcan inc ease in in o mal ﬁnancial de elopmen , e en
hough i s e ec s we e less no iceable a he mac oeconomic le el, and ha he use o
mobile phones wi h in e ne access in 44 A ican coun ies in he pe iod be ween 2000
and 2016 led o an inc ease in ﬁnancial inclusion, al hough he li e a u e e iew-based
s udies [
20
] make claims ha he e a e ew pape s ha can p esen a causal in e ence
be ween ICT de elopmen and po e y. The ac is ha he in e ac ion be ween he in e ne ,
mobile phone access o o he echnologies and po e y, which was also he ocus o many
pape s [
21
–
25
], was demons a ed in his esea ch pape o he 35 coun ies ha we e
analyzed in he da a sample.
Addi ionally, in he scien iﬁc li e a u e, he e has been a end owa d analyzing he
impac s o echnology as a means o inclusion and access o in o ma ion on po e y, ei he
in Sou h Asia, Sub-Saha an A ica [
26
] o in La in Ame ica [
27
]. This also makes ou
s udy o in e es ega ding he way in which digi al de elopmen has led o wo ldwide
de elopmen s ins ead o egionally based implica ions. This concen a ion o he s udy on
p o ing and p esen ing esul s a he global le el is, in ou opinion, i s bigges s eng h
and se s i apa as an in e es ing and dynamic app oach o a much-s udied and deba ed
economic and social phenomenon [97–99].
The esul s o his s udy sugges ha by making echnology mo e a o dable and
a ailable o a popula ion, he Sus ainable De elopmen Goal o e adica ing po e y could
be accomplished in a as e and mo e e ﬁcien way. One o he challenges ha we me in
he de elopmen o he p esen s udy was he lack o da a ega ding he po e y a e o he
analyzed coun ies, wi h his being due o he ac ha we de e mined he applica ion o
he model o only be o 35 coun ies and o he pe iod be ween 2005 and 2018, as hese
we e he only a ailable da a on he subjec a he na ional le el.
This pape p esen s a quan iﬁable me hod o analyzing he impac o digi al echnology
adop ion a he pe sonal le el on he po e y headcoun a io. This app oach is an o iginal
one due o he way in which we can obse e he impac o he possible inc ease in he
adop ion o echnology. O addi ional in e es is he composi ion o he digi al de elopmen
index. The index allowed us o compa e he e olu ion o he coun ies in he analyzed
pe iod o ime. The index is easy o build and can o e a benchma k o de eloping a
compa a i e analysis be ween di e en coun ies and obse ing he way in which policies
ha e shaped he e olu ion o digi al de elopmen in each coun y. Ano he con ibu ion
o he index could be i s use in he be e unde s anding o he p oblems o de eloping
coun ies, as we obse ed ha he coun ies o he A ican con inen we e he ones ha
p esen ed he g ea es gap in digi al de elopmen . This is o in e es due o he ac ha
sus ainable de elopmen should p omo e g ow h a he global le el. In his con ex , he
calcula ion o his index in he u u e could p o ide esea che s wi h a pe spec i e o
he p og ess made by de eloping coun ies, and i could also se e as an indica o o
app op ia e egional policy and a sus ainable app oach a he in e na ional le el.
On he o he hand, a no able esea ch limi a ion is ha he da a analyzed in his pape
deal wi h coun y-based indica o s. This app oach leads o he exclusion o he idea ha
wi hin a coun y, he e migh be se e al le els o echnological adop ion, depending on
he egions o he coun y o whe he he popula ion li es in u al o u ban en i onmen s.
Mo eo e , in he de elopmen o he s udy, he au ho s no iced a lack o da a ega ding
he po e y headcoun a io o mos o he wo ld’s coun ies. This ac led us o use only
35 coun ies in he ﬁnal s udy in o de o de elop he ec o au o eg essi e model. Ano he
limi a ion o ake in o conside a ion is ep esen ed by he bias o he index owa d small
coun ies. This is explained by he way in which he index akes in o accoun indica o s ha
a e exp essed as pe cen ages. Al hough such an app oach could a o small coun ies, using
nominal alues o he indica o s (e.g., millions o in e ne use s) could lead o con using
esul s, and he index is mo e unde s andable as a o al sco e o all he pe cen age-based
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Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 10667
indica o s. Ano he limi a ion is ep esen ed by he ac ha po e y i sel is a complex
phenomenon, and in his pape , he au ho s a emp ed o analyze only he ela ion be ween
digi al de elopmen and po e y wi hou aking in o conside a ion o he de e mining
ac o s o po e y, such as go e nmen - and socie y- ela ed ac o s, in o de o analyze he
ela ion a a undamen al and singula le el. Howe e , his app oach has he ad an age
and he limi a ion o o e ing a clea iew o only a small piece o he ela ions o po e y
and i s de e mining ac o s.
Ano he in e es ing e ec o digi al de elopmen on he economy is aising i s e-
silience in on o ex e nal shocks. One such shock is he COVID-19 pandemic, wi h which
he wo ld has been con on ed in he las wo yea s. By analyzing he e olu ion o he mos
digi ally de eloped economies, du ing he pandemic, we can conclude ha he ones ha
we e he mos de eloped acco ding o he digi al de elopmen index (Japan and Sou h
Ko ea) pe o med be e han he Eu opean Union, eu o zone and OECD a e ages. This is
o in e es because i shows ha by inc easing he access o echnology, he go e nmen no
only educes he po e y headcoun a io, bu i also makes he economy mo e esilien o
ou side shocks. This leads o he idea ha digi al de elopmen has many posi i e impac s
ha should be u he esea ched.
The p esen s udy also has in e es ing manage ial implica ions o p esen ing a global
pe spec i e o he digi al de elopmen o he wo ld’s coun ies. Fo a company ha wan s
o become ac i e in a digi ally de eloped coun y, i could use he esul s o his s udy
as a guideline o analyzing he de elopmen o each coun y. In addi ion, he ela ion
be ween he digi al de elopmen o a coun y and educ ion o he po e y headcoun is
use ul o quan i ying he way in which a ce ain coun y could e ol e in he u u e om a
digi al s andpoin .
Fu he esea ch s udies should ocus on in es iga ion o he ela ion be ween echno-
logical adop ion and o he Sus ainable De elopmen Goals. This could be use ul because i
holds signiﬁcance in demons a ing ha echnology is an impo an d i ing o ce in he
c ea ion o a mo e sus ainable economy. Ano he in e es ing esea ch di ec ion could be
he impac o he echnology p ice le el on he po e y headcoun a e, so his could be o
in e es due o he connec ions be ween he a o dabili y o echnology and i s adop ion.
Thus, i can be concluded ha he p esen esea ch pape p esen s an es ablished and
clea co ela ion be ween digi al de elopmen and he po e y headcoun a io. This is
no only a new app oach o he ﬁeld o s udy bu also p esen s signiﬁcan ele ance o he
eade . In his way, his a icle is o g ea in e es o all o he scien iﬁc communi y and he
poli ical decision ac o s due o he implica ions o he esea ch pe o med. In his way, by
encou aging digi al de elopmen o he popula ion (by adop ing new echnologies), he
go e nmen can lead o educ ion o he po e y headcoun a io. E en hough in es men
in shel e and p ima y goods can be seen as he way o go o a de eloping na ion, we
conclude ha be e and mo e consis en esul s ega ding he educ ion o po e y can be
ob ained by inc easing he digi al de elopmen o he coun y.
Au ho Con ibu ions:
All au ho s con ibu ed equally o his esea ch. All au ho s discussed he
esul s and con ibu ed o he ﬁnal manusc ip . All au ho s ha e ead and ag eed o he published
e sion o he manusc ip .
Funding: This esea ch ecei ed no ex e nal unding.
Ins i u ional Re iew Boa d S a emen : No applicable.
In o med Consen S a emen : No applicable.
Conﬂic s o In e es : The au ho s decla e no conﬂic o in e es .
77
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 10667
Appendix A
Figu e A1. Gene alized impulse esponse unc ion.
Table A1. Lis o coun ies based on ank in 2019.
Coun y Rank in 2019 Coun y Rank in 2019
Hong Kong, China 1 San Ma ino 89
Uni ed A ab Emi a es 2 Ghana 90
Mal a 3 Pa aguay 91
Japan 4 Cabo Ve de 92
Ko ea (Rep. o ) 5 Cô e d’I oi e 93
Seychelles 6 Albania 94
Mon eneg o 7 Fa oe Islands 95
Luxembou g 8 Alge ia 96
Ge many 9 Indonesia 97
78
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 10667
Table A1. Con .
Coun y Rank in 2019 Coun y Rank in 2019
Singapo e 10 S i Lanka 98
Swi ze land 11 Dominican Rep. 99
Cyp us 12 Cu acao 100
Uni ed Kingdom 13 B i ish Vi gin Islands 101
F ance 14 Gua emala 102
Ne he lands 15 Pales ine 103
Iceland 16 Su iname 104
Es onia 17 Maldi es 105
Li huania 18 Egyp 106
Taiwan, P o ince o China 19 Aus alia 107
Uni ed S a es 20 Chile 108
Is ael 21 A gen ina 109
Kuwai 22 Boli ia (Plu ina ional S a e o ) 110
Russian Fede a ion 23 Gambia 111
Bela us 24 Bahamas 112
Denma k 25 Namibia 113
Spain 26 Senegal 114
U uguay 27 G eenland 115
Cos a Rica 28 Mali 116
Sweden 29 Ky gyzs an 117
Po ugal 30 Sy ian A ab Republic 118
Aus ia 31 Cuba 119
Thailand 32 Moldo a 120
G eece 33 India 121
Mau i ius 34 Kenya 122
I aly 35 Jamaica 123
Slo enia 36 Nige ia 124
I an (Islamic Republic o ) 37 Sain Vincen and he G enadines 125
Canada 38 Guinea 126
Qa a 39 Leso ho 127
Belgium 40 Came oon 128
B unei Da ussalam 41 Bangladesh 129
Slo akia 42 Bu kina Faso 130
Se bia 43 Zimbabwe 131
I eland 44 Benin 132
Malaysia 45 Zambia 133
Finland 46 Ecuado 134
No way 47 I aq 135
Monaco 48 Sao Tome and P incipe 136
Czech Republic 49 Guinea-Bissau 137
Saudi A abia 50 Timo -Les e 138
Oman 51 Djibou i 139
Hunga y 52 Mau i ania 140
Kazakhs an 53 Tanzania 141
Poland 54 Sie a Leone 142
C oa ia 55 Sudan 143
Bah ain 56 Rwanda 144
Geo gia 57 Bhu an 145
Sou h A ica 58 Togo 146
Pue o Rico 59 Pakis an 147
Romania 60 Nica agua 148
El Sal ado 61 Hai i 149
La ia 62 Venezuela 150
Bo swana 63 Vanua u 151
China 64 Hondu as 152
Vie nam 65 Macao, China 153
Panama 66 Jo dan 154
Gib al a 67 Angola 155
79
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 3646
ag icul u al commodi y p ices we e much g ea e han hey used o be in ecen yea s [
8
].
Uncon en ional policy decisions in oduced by na ional go e nmen s may ha e been mo e
dange ous han he pandemic i sel [
9
]. Wes e n socie ies, including he Eu opean ones,
appea ed mo e ulne able in he ace o a new pandemic compa ed o Eas e n ones [
10
].
Achie ing sus ainable de elopmen , wi h espec o he en i onmen and economics has
become qui e a challenging ask in ecen yea s. This has been inﬂuenced by he ecen
economic c isis and he e ec s o clima e change. In he con ex o he COVID-19 pandemic
ou b eak, sus ainabili y can be conside ed no only om an economic o en i onmen al
poin o iew, bu also om a public heal h pe spec i e [
11
]. The pandemic c isis has
demons a ed he exis ence o a complex se o inequali ies ha ha e eme ged wi hin
he global sys em a di e en le els: he global economy and ﬁnance, heal hca e, edu-
ca ion, he judicia y, go e nance, he non-go e nmen al sphe e, public a ai s, business
and en ep eneu ship, poli ical igh s and ci il libe ies, amily li e, e c. The down u n
in indus ial p oduc ion and in oduced es ic ions hampe ing economic ac i i y ha e
pa icula ly a ec ed he labou ma ke .
EU Membe S a es ha e signiﬁcan di e ences in he le el o human de elopmen .
A dis inc ion has been made be ween dynamically de eloping egions and egions ha
di e signiﬁcan ly om his le el [
12
–
17
]. In such si ua ion, i is ex emely impo an o
cons an ly supe ise changes in he le el o social de elopmen o he EU coun ies and o
de e mine he ank ha a gi en coun y occupies in ela ion o he o he ones.
The Sus ainable De elopmen Goals Repo 2021 indica es ha he COVID-19 c isis
dis u bed economic ac i i ies in he whole wo ld and caused he s onges ecession since
he G ea Dep ession [
18
]. A ound 255 million ull- ime jobs we e los in 2020—abou ou
imes mo e han du ing he global ﬁnancial c isis o 2007–2009. The pandemic has caused
g ea isk o he wo ke s in in o mal employmen because hey do no ha e p o ec ion
agains illness o lockdowns. The c isis a ec ed young wo ke s and women pa icula ly
s ongly.
The aim o he s udy is he assessmen o he simila i y o he si ua ion in he EU
labou ma ke s and hei changes using selec ed indica o s in he pe iod be o e and du ing
he COVID-19 pandemic. The e o e, wo esea ch ques ions a ise:
Q1–Does he COVID-19 pandemic inﬂuence simila i ies o he labou ma ke s in he
EU coun ies?
Q2–Does he COVID-19 pandemic inﬂuence simila i ies o changes in he labou ma ke s
in he EU coun ies?
Un il now, many scien iﬁc a icles ha e appea ed on he economic impac o he
COVID-19 pandemic. These a e mos ly s udies on indi idual coun ies o small g oups o
hem. Howe e , o ou knowledge, he e ha e been no published s udies compa ing ime
se ies o all EU coun ies be o e and du ing he pandemic. The e is he e o e a esea ch
gap in his a ea, which we a e ying o ﬁll wi h ou s udy.
We e e ou analysis o he benchma k coun ies, i.e., he ones ha mos closely mee
he Sus ainable De elopmen Goals ela ed o he labou ma ke . We assess he simila i y
o he si ua ion by using he TOPSIS me hod, and he simila i y o changes by using he
Dynamic Time Wa ping me hod. We ob ain homogeneous clus e s o coun ies due o ime
se ies simila i y using hie a chical clus e ing.
The manusc ip is o ganised as ollows: Sec ion 2 p esen s he li e a u e e iew. In
Sec ion 3, we p esen he ma e ials and esea ch me hods. Sec ion 4 p esen s he esul s
o empi ical analysis. In Sec ion 5, we p esen he discussion o ob ained esul s. The
manusc ip ends wi h conclusions.
2. Li e a u e Re iew
Achie ing sus ainable de elopmen wo ldwide equi es a ai and balanced social
and economic en i onmen [
19
]. Ba ska e al. [
20
] assess he human de elopmen o EU
coun ies in he backg ound o sus ainable de elopmen om 2014 o 2018. On he basis
o hei esul s, we can d aw a conclusion ha many coun ies expe ience posi i e ends
86

Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 3646
ha b ing hem close o he success ul implemen a ion o he sus ainable de elopmen
pa adigm. Howe e , hey a e also obse ing un a ou able ends. In almos hal o he EU
coun ies, he pe cen age o po e y-s icken wo king people and he isk o po e y o
olde people (65+) inc eased be ween 2014 and 2018. The analysis also e eals ha he e
a e la ge disc epancies be ween he coun ies s udied, ela ing o di e en a eas o human
de elopmen . They a e pa icula ly clea o labou ma ke indica o s. Sweden, Denma k,
and The Ne he lands a e among he highes - anking coun ies o se e al hema ic a eas.
A he opposi e end o he spec um a e Romania, Bulga ia, G eece, and I aly. In many
coun ies, he e a e signiﬁcan gaps be ween he hema ic a eas. They pe o m e y well in
some a eas and e y poo ly in o he s. E e y EU coun y has a oom o imp o emen in a
leas one o he analysed a eas, bu he e a e also coun ies (e.g., Romania, Bulga ia, and
G eece) ha need o change and imp o e in all examined a eas.
Sus ainable economic de elopmen needs a well-balanced wo k o ce o young and
olde people [
21
]. As he balance is mo ing owa ds olde people, he p oduc i i y ends o
su e . Fu he mo e, he olde people demand mo e om heal h se ices. The esul s show
ha he e is a signiﬁcan di e ence be ween he de eloped and de eloping EU coun ies.
I sugges s he need o speciﬁc policies and s a egies o he labou ma ke in eg a ion o
olde people. I also implies highe public heal h expendi u es, which has consequences
o EU labou ma ke pe o mance.
C ises o all kinds ha e a nega i e impac on labou ma ke equilib ium. The eco e y
pe iod poses signiﬁcan isk o sus ainable de elopmen goals. I is he e o e impo an o
communi ies in pandemic-a ec ed coun ies o p epa e o a e u n o sus ainable g ow h.
Kapecki [
22
] analyses he impac o en i onmen al, ﬁnancial, and humani a ian c ises on
sus ainable de elopmen . He pays pa icula a en ion o he ﬁnancial c isis o 2007 and
he c isis caused by he ou b eak o he COVID-19 pandemic.
Since he onse o he pandemic, a ious s udies ha e been ca ied ou on i s impac on
he economies o pa icula coun ies and he wo ld economy. As he pandemic con inues
o de elop, he esul s o ea ly s udies a e also changing. S udies on he nega i e impac
o he pandemic on global GDP ha e s a ed o appea in he global li e a u e [
23
–
27
] and
on ﬁnancial pe o mance on global s ock exchanges
[28–32]
. In line wi h p e ious li e a-
u e
[33,34]
, he COVID-19 pandemic can igge ﬁnancial panics and lead go e nmen s o
adjus hei economic policies, as in o he c isis pe iods [35].
Su e al. [
36
] (2022) analyse he ela ion o COVID-19 o co po a e sus ainabili y om
he poin o iew o bo h in e nal o ganiza ion and ex e nal social en i onmen . They
a emp o analyse and ﬁnd implica ions o companies and socie y o be e cope wi h
c ises and achie e sus ainable de elopmen in he pos -pandemic e a. They conclude ha
i en e p ises aim a main aining sus ainable de elopmen in he pos -COVID-19 e a wi h
coexis ence o challenges and oppo uni ies, hey mus ha e ull in eg a ion o in e nal
and ex e nal esou ces. They should also ely on digi al ans o ma ion o achie e su i al,
de elopmen , and upg ade. The pandemic causes many nega i e emo ions amongs
employees such as loneliness, anxie y, ea , wo y, o collapse. This, in u n, a ec s job
pe o mance and employee sa is ac ion, hen poses dange s o sus ainable human esou ce
managemen .
In analyses ela ed o he impac o COVID-19 on he economic and ﬁnancial si ua ion,
a end o esea ch on he impac o COVID-19 on he labou ma ke has eme ged. In
imes o c isis, he labou ma ke becomes one o he ﬁ s o expe ience se e e u bulence.
Employabili y is one o he pa ame e s ha has changed signiﬁcan ly due o he exis ence o
he global heal h c isis. People employed in ﬂexible o ms o employmen , which a e ha dly
subjec o any legal p o ec ion, a e he ﬁ s o lose hei jobs [
37
,
38
]. In o mal wo ke s,
you h, and women [
39
], as well as small ade s, he sel -employed, mig an wo ke s, and
daily wage ea ne s [
40
] we e he ﬁ s o expe ience employmen p oblems. Ni akoski
and Masche ini [
41
] no e ha he COVID-19 may ha e had a di e en impac on gende
equali y han p e ious ecessions. Eme ging e idence sugges s ha women’s paid wo k
has declined in many coun ies due o bo h labou demand and labou supply ac o s.
87
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 3646
Demand o labou declined because women’s wo k is o en associa ed wi h close con ac
wi h o he people, o example hospi ali y, a el, pe sonal ca e, and cleaning. These a e
he indus ies o which ac i i ies we e signiﬁcan ly educed a he s a o he pandemic.
Bo ha e al. [
42
] showed he signiﬁcan nega i e ela ionship be ween labou ma ke shocks
igge ed by he COVID-19 c isis and ﬁnancial wellbeing. They show hese labou ma ke
shocks a e disp opo iona ely el by people a he lowe end o he ﬁnancial wellbeing
dis ibu ion. In 2020, he ou ism indus y was pa icula ly a ec ed, including ha in
Eu opean coun ies. Changes in he numbe o a i als and o e nigh s ays we e ela ed o
he deg ee o es ic ions imposed [43].
S abo a e al. [
44
] analyses changes in unemploymen in he Slo ak Republic due
o he impac o he an i-sp eading egula ions adop ed by he go e nmen . The au ho s
showed ha he educ ion in economic ac i i y o ﬁ ms ope a ing in Slo akia esul ed in a
dec ease in consume demand, which pu p essu e on employe s o educe cos s h ough
lay-o s. This esul ed in an inc ease in unemploymen . The es ic ions adop ed o p e en
he sp ead o COVID-19 had a nega i e impac on he Slo ak labou ma ke .
Many analyses highligh he majo change b ough abou in he EU-27 by ‘ elewo king’
and he ins abili y o adi ional jobs in he new con ex based on digi isa ion [
45
–
48
].
This si ua ion was exace ba ed du ing he pandemic pe iod. The empi ical ﬁndings poin
o a si ua ion o deep economic c isis gene a ed by he economic down u n and high
unemploymen a es in he EU-27.
Galik e al. [
49
] assess labou ma ke ﬂexibili y using he TOPSIS me hod and mul i-
c i e ia decision analysis (MCDA) me hods. The p ocesses o sus ainable indus ial ela ions
a e conside ed in he con ex o shaping labou ma ke ﬂexibili y in 15 Eu opean Union
coun ies be ween 2009 and 2018. Thei esul s indica e ha he TOPSIS me hod is a sui able
app oach o measu ing labou ma ke ﬂexibili y on he in e na ional scale. Mo eo e ,
wi h ega d o labou o ce phenomena, his me hod p o ides an oppo uni y o examine
he impac o indi idual ac o s ela ed o social and employmen policies in he con ex
o sus ainable de elopmen and socio-economic g ow h. The lack o p ecise ools o
o ecas ing he de elopmen o na ional and ansna ional labou ma ke s, especially in he
COVID-19 e a, highligh s he impo ance o such a me hod o planne s and policy make s.
The empi ical s udy by Ga ilu a e al. [
50
] p esen s he si ua ion o employabili y
in he EU-27 unde he condi ions o he COVID-19 pandemic. The c isis caused by he
pandemic highligh s exis ing di e ences in he labou ma ke in di e en egions o Eu ope.
These di e ences ha e o en inc eased unde he inﬂuence o egula ions in oduced by
na ional go e nmen s. The socio-economic ca ego y mos a ec ed by he economic impac
o he COVID-19 pandemic is young people wi h p ima y o seconda y educa ion. In hei
conclusions, he au ho s s ess ha such phenomena as an inc ease in educa ion le els and
a educ ion in gende inequali ies and ma e ial and social dep i a ion should be co ela ed
wi h economic eedom and inc eased oppo uni ies o en ep eneu ship. Such measu es
a e beneﬁcial in he con ex o sus ainable de elopmen in he EU.
An in e es ing s udy is conduc ed by Guo e al. [
51
] on he economic impac on COVID-
19 accina ion a es in he USA. They ﬁnd ha he e is posi i e co ela ion be ween bo h
he coun y-le el pe capi a income and coun y-le el unemploymen a es and coun y-le el
COVID-19 accina ion a es ac oss he U.S. Howe e , hese associa ions a e di e gen wi h
espec o ace/e hnici y.
3. Ma e ials and Me hods
3.1. Ma e ials
We use he qua e ly Eu os a da a o all 27 EU membe s a es, a ailable online a :
h ps://ec.eu opa.eu/eu os a /web/main/da a/da abase (accessed on 7 Feb ua y 2022).
The da a co e he basic indica o s o labou ma ke :
• unemploymen a e;
• ac i i y a e;
• employmen a e.
88
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 3646
We conside e e y indica o o he o al popula ion, o young people (aged
15–24
yea s), and o people aged 55 yea s o mo e. The only excep ion is he unem-
ploymen a e, which excludes he da a o people aged 55 yea s o mo e. The eason o
his is he lack o da a o Mal a and Luxembou g. The da a co e he pe iod s a ing a he
1s qua e o 2018 and ending a he 3 d qua e o 2021. We di ide he pe iod in o wo
sub-pe iods. The ﬁ s (1s qua e 2018–4 h qua e 2019) is he p e-pandemic pe iod, and
he second (1s qua e 2020–3 d qua e 2021) is he pandemic pe iod.
We conside he coun ies ha closely mee he Sus ainable De elopmen Goal (SDG)
ela ed o he labou ma ke as he benchma k ones. The SDG ha includes he indica o s
ela ed o he labou ma ke is he SDG8 (P omo e sus ained, inclusi e, and sus ainable
economic g ow h, ull and p oduc i e employmen , and decen wo k o all). SDG8 is one o
he 17 Sus ainable De elopmen Goals (SDGs) ha we e es ablished by he Uni ed Na ions
Gene al Assembly in 2015 [
52
]. P og ess owa ds he goals is measu ed, moni o ed, and
e alua ed h ough 17 indica o s. SDG8 has a o al o wel e a ge s. These a e: sus ainable
economic g ow h (8.1); di e si y, inno a e, and upg ade o economic p oduc i i y (8.2);
p omo e policies o suppo job c ea ion and g owing en e p ises (8.3); imp o e esou ce
e ﬁciency in consump ion and p oduc ion (8.4); ull employmen and decen wo k wi h
equal pay (8.5); p omo e you h employmen , educa ion, and aining (8.6); end mode n
sla e y, a ﬁcking, and child labou (8.7); p o ec labou igh s and p omo e sa e wo king
en i onmen s (8.8); p omo e beneﬁcial and sus ainable ou ism (8.9); uni e sal access o
banking, insu ance, and ﬁnancial se ices (8.10); inc ease aid o ade suppo (8.a); and
de elop a global you h employmen s a egy (8.b). SGD8 is he aspi a ion ha he economic
sec o o each coun y should p o ide i s ci izens wi h he necessa y needs o a good li e,
ega dless o hei o igin, ace, o cul u e. As we wish o assess he SDG indica o s o
e e y analysed qua e , we selec he ollowing, as only hey we e a ailable in he o m o
qua e ly da a:
• young people nei he in employmen no in educa ion o aining (NEET);
• employmen a e;
• long- e m unemploymen a e.
3.2. Me hods
We pe o m he analysis in he ollowing s eps:
1. By means o he TOPSIS me hod, we c ea e he anking o he coun ies wi h espec
o ulﬁlmen o he sus ainable de elopmen goals ega ding he labou ma ke . The
bes coun ies in he whole pe iod c ea e he benchma k.
2.
Fo e e y qua e , by means o he TOPSIS me hod, we assess he si ua ion o he EU
coun ies in hei labou ma ke s, using unemploymen , ac i i y, and employmen
a es o o al popula ion, o young people, and o people aged 55 yea s o mo e.
3.
Wi h espec o he alues o he TOPSIS measu e, we selec he g oups o coun ies wi h
e y good, a he good, a he poo , and e y poo si ua ion in hei labou ma ke s.
4.
We analyse simila i ies o ime se ies o he si ua ion in he labou ma ke s (assessed
by he TOPSIS me hod) be ween he coun ies by means o he Dynamic Time Wa ping
(DTW) me hod in he p e-pandemic and pandemic pe iods.
5. The simila i ies be ween he ime se ies a e assessed by means o he DTW dis ance.
6.
The DTW dis ance is hen used in hie a chical clus e ing o dis inguish he homoge-
neous clus e s o coun ies wi h espec o simila i y o changes o he si ua ion in
hei labou ma ke s in bo h p e-pandemic and pandemic pe iods.
3.2.1. The TOPSIS Me hod
The TOPSIS (Technique o O de o P e e ence by Simila i y o Ideal Solu ion) is he
echnique c ea ed o he need o he mul i-c i e ia decision making. I is, howe e , also
widely used in he mul i a ia e s a is ical analysis. I was c ea ed by Hwang and Yoon [
53
]
and is based on he weighed dis ance o each objec (in ou case coun y) om he so-called
89
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 3646
pa e n (i.e., he bes alues o a iables in he da ase ) and om he an i-pa e n (i.e., he
wo s alues o a iables in he da ase ).
A s a ing poin o he TOPSIS me hod is he obse a ion ma ix X:
X=⎡
⎢
⎢
⎢
⎣
x11 x12 ··· x1m
x21 x22 ··· x2m
.
.
..
.
.....
.
.
xn1xn2··· xnm
⎤
⎥
⎥
⎥
⎦(1)
whe e
xij
is he alue o
j
- h a iable in
i
- h objec (
i=
1,
...
,
n
,
j=
1,
...
,
m
),
m
is he
numbe o a iables, and nis he numbe o objec s.
As all a iables in ou da ase a e measu ed on he a io scale, we can no malise
hem by means one o he quo ien in e sions (such no malisa ion me hod p ese es he
scale s eng h):
zij =xij
∑n
i=1x2
ij
(2)
whe e zij is he no malised alue o j- h a iable in i- h objec (i=1,...,n,j=1,...,m).
The nex s ep o he TOPSIS me hod is de e mina ion o weigh s. The p oblem o
de e mining he a iables’ weigh s is no an easy ask. The e is also no single me hod o
weigh s de e mina ion ecognised as bes . We can assign weigh s o a iables s a is ically
(on he basis o a iables’ dispe sion, mu ual co ela ions, o en opy measu es) o by using
he expe me hods. The ﬁ s me hod would cause weigh s in e e y analysed pe iod o
be di e en , and he second would indica e a high deg ee o subjec i ism. I he e is no
clea indica ion ha some a iables a e mo e impo an han he o he s, we should assume
equal weigh s.
We mul iply he no malised alues o a iables by hei weigh s, hus c ea ing he
weighed, no malised obse a ion ma ix:
ij =wjzij,i=1, . . . , n,j=1, . . . , m(3)
whe e wj=1
ma e he a iables’ weigh s (j=1, ···,m).
In he nex s ep o he TOPSIS me hod we calcula e he pa e n (
Ab
) and he an i-
pa e n (Aw):
Ab=max
i ij|j∈J+,min
i ij|j∈J−|i=1, . . . , n= b1,..., bj,..., bm(4)
Aw=min
i ij|j∈J+,max
i ij|j∈J−|i=1, . . . , n= w1,..., wj,..., wm(5)
whe e
J+
indica es s imulan s ( a iables o which he highes alues a e he mos desi -
able) and
J−
indica ed des imulan s ( a iables o which he lowes alues a e he mos
desi able).
Nex , we calcula e he weighed dis ances o each objec om he pa e n (
d+
i0
) and
an i-pa e n (d−
i0) by means o he Euclidean me ic:
d+
i0=


m
∑
j=1 ij − bj2,i=1, . . . , n(6)
d−
i0=


m
∑
j=1 ij − wj2,i=1, . . . , n(7)
90
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 3646
Finally, we calcula e he composi e measu e qi:
qi=d−
i0
d−
i0+d+
i0
,i=1, . . . , n(8)
The composi e measu e
qi
has he ollowing p ope ies:
qi∈[
0,1
]
,
maxi{qi}
— he bes
objec , and mini{qi}— he wo s objec .
3.2.2. The Dynamic Time Wa ping Me hod
The Dynamic Time Wa ping (DTW) me hod was in en ed by Bellman and Kalaba [
54
].
O iginally, i was used o speech ecogni ion p oblems [
55
–
57
]. O he ﬁelds o i s appli-
ca ion include music in o ma ion e ie al [
58
], ges u e ecogni ion [
59
], o in bioin o -
ma ics [
60
]. I is now mo e and mo e o en used in esea ch on ime se ies desc ibing
economic and social phenomena. Landmesse [
61
] uses i o ﬁnd simila i ies in ime se ies
desc ibing he dynamics o he numbe o cases and dea hs o COVID-19 in he p o inces
o Poland. Dmy ów and Bieszk-S olo z [
62
] look o co ela ions and links be ween unem-
ploymen a es and unemploymen du a ion in he Viseg ad coun ies. Dmy ów e al. [
63
]
assess he links be ween he numbe o COVID-19 cases and he ene gy commodi y sec o .
Denkowska and Wana [
64
] use he DTW algo i hm o g oup insu ance ins i u ions by he
simila i y o hei con ibu ion o sys emic isk, as exp essed by Del aCoVaR. S übinge [
65
]
uses he DTW me hod o ﬁnd op imal causal pa h algo i hm o he minu e-by-minu e da a
o he S&P 500 cons i uen s om 1998 o 2015.
By using he DTW algo i hm we can measu e simila i y be ween wo ime se ies. The
DTW me hod looks o an op imal alignmen be ween hem by using he dynamic p og am-
ming. The alignmen is desc ibed by a gi en sco ing unc ion. Le
X=(x1
,
x2
,
...
,
xN)
and
Y=(y1
,
y2
,
...
,
yM)
be wo ime se ies. In o de o be able o compa e hem, bo h ime
se ies mus be no malised. The mos equen ly used me hod is
z
-no malisa ion. The need
o no malisa ion o ime se ies is o en highligh ed in classiﬁca ion o clus e ing me hods
wi h he DTW and o he dis ance measu es [66,67].
Nex , we deﬁne he local cos measu e o wo elemen s o
X
and
Y
by means o
he equa ion:
cxi,yj=xi−yj,i=1,...,N,j=1,...,M(9)
We calcula e his measu e o e e y pai o elemen s o
X
and
Y
, hus ob aining he
local cos ma ix
LCM ∈RN×M
. The op imal alignmen be ween ime se ies
X
and
Y
is
he one ha ing minimal o e all cos .
The poin - o-poin ma ch be ween he ime se ies Xand Yis ep esen ed by he ime
wa ping pa h. I is a sequence
p=(p1
,
...
,
pL)
, whe e
pl=(nl
,
ml)∈{
1,
...
,
N}×
{
1,
...
,
M}
o
l∈{
1,
...
,
L}(L∈{max (N,M),...,N+M−1})
. The sequence sa isﬁes
h ee condi ions: bounda y, mono onici y, and s ep size condi ions [
68
]. The bounda y
condi ion ensu es ha he ﬁ s and he las elemen o
p
a e
p1=(
1,1
)
and
pL=(N
,
M)
,
espec i ely. I means ha he ﬁ s (las ) index om he ﬁ s sequence mus be ma ched
wi h he ﬁ s (las ) index om he second one. The mono onici y condi ion ensu es ha
he pa h always mo es up, igh , o up and igh o he cu en posi ion, i.e.,
pl+1−pl∈
{(1,0),(0, 1),(1,1)}
o
l=
1,
...
,
L−
1. The s ep size condi ion ensu es ha e e y index
om he ime se ies
X
mus be ma ched wi h one o mo e indices om he ime se ies
Y
(and ice e sa).
The op imal ma ch is he one ha sa isﬁes all he abo e-men ioned condi ions and
ha has he minimal o al cos . The o al cos cp(X,Y)o a wa ping pa h pis deﬁned as:
cp(X,Y)=
L
∑
l=1
c(xnl,yml)=
L
∑
l=1
|xnl −yml|(10)
91

Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 3646
The op imal ma ch be ween Xand Yis hen:
DTW(X,Y)=cp∗(X,Y)=mincp(X,Y)|p∈P(11)
whe e Pis he se o all possible wa ping pa hs.
By means o he DTW algo i hm, we ﬁnd he pa h ha minimises he alignmen
be ween
X
and
Y
. I i e a i ely s eps h ough he local cos ma ix and agg ega es he cos .
We ﬁnd he op imal pa h
p∗
by using a dynamic p og amming algo i hm. The ob ained
alue DTW(X,Y)is he measu e o dis ance be ween he ime se ies Xand Y.
We use ob ained by he Equa ion (11) dis ances be ween all ime se ies o c ea e he
dissimila i y ma ix. In he nex s ep, we use his ma ix in agglome a i e hie a chical
clus e ing o ime se ies [
69
]. I s main ad an age is he isualisa ion capabili ies. In ou
esea ch we use he Wa d’s me hod o minimise he a iance wi hin he clus e s. We check
he obus ness o he clus e ing algo i hm and se he numbe o clus e s by means o he
silhoue e index.
Clus e ing me hods a e used in many economic and social issues. Rozmus [
70
] uses
di e en measu es o s abili y o g oup EU membe s a es by hei le el o sus ainabili y.
Zalewska [
71
] uses clus e analysis o iden i y and compa e de e minan s inﬂuencing he
opinion o s uden s and lec u e s on he e alua ion o he possibili y and e ec i eness
o in oducing he CQI sys em in Polish highe educa ion. Siko a-Alicka [
72
] pe o ms a
compa a i e analysis o Polish eaching hospi als. The aim o he s udy is o conﬁ m he
hesis ha eaching hospi als, despi e signiﬁcan o ganisa ional and unc ional di e ences,
due o he speciﬁci y o hei ac i i ies, do no di e signiﬁcan ly in he s uc u e o gene -
a ed cos s. Małkowska e al. [
73
] use he TOPSIS me hod and clus e analysis o measu e
and assess he impac o digi al ans o ma ion on he EU coun ies. Roman e al. [43] use
clus e analysis o g oup Eu opean coun ies in e ms o changes in ou ism due o he
ou b eak o he pandemic.
4. Resul s
4.1. Sus ainable De elopmen Goals Rela ed o Labou Ma ke
In he ﬁ s s ep o he analysis, we c ea e he anking o coun ies wi h espec o
ulﬁlmen o he sus ainable de elopmen goals (SDG) ega ding he labou ma ke . We
conside he ollowing a iables: young people nei he in employmen no in educa ion o
aining (NEET)
(SDG
8
1)
, employmen a e
(SDG
8
2)
, and long- e m unemploymen a e
(SDG
8
3)
. Va iables
SDG
8
1
,
SDG
8
2
, and
SDG
8
3
a e ela ed o he implemen a ion o SDG8
a ge s 8.5 and 8.6 and ela e di ec ly o he labou ma ke . The ﬁ s and he hi d a iables
a e he des imulan s, while he second is he s imulan . We se he pa e n and an i-pa e n
alues o he whole pe iod (Table 1).
Table 1.
Pa e n and an i-pa e n alues o he SDG- ela ed a iables. Sou ce: own calcula ions on he
basis o he Eu os a da a.
Speciﬁca ion (SDG81)(SDG82)(SDG83)
pa e n 5.0% 71.5% 12.5%
an i-pa e n 24.4% 43.3% 73.1%
The bes (pa e n) alue o he pe cen age o NEETs (5.0%) is in he ﬁ s qua e o
2020 in he Ne he lands and he wo s (an i-pa e n) (24.4%) in he second qua e o 2020
in I aly. The bes alue o he employmen a e (71.5%) is in he hi d qua e o 2021 in he
Ne he lands and he wo s (43.3%) in he second qua e o 2020 in G eece. The pa e n
alue o he long- e m unemploymen a e (12.5%) is obse ed in he hi d qua e o 2019
in Sweden and he an i-pa e n (73.1%) in he hi d qua e o 2018 in Slo akia. Fo he
he pe cen age o NEETs and he long- e m unemploymen a e, he ela i e di e ences
be ween he bes and he wo s alues a e e y la ge. The bes alue o he o me is jus
abo e 1
5o he wo s and o he la e his a io equals abou 1
6.
92
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 3646
We hen apply he Equa ions (1)–(8) o calcula e he TOPSIS measu e o e e y qua e
o he analysed pe iod. Ha ing calcula ed he TOPSIS measu es, o e e y qua e we
calcula e he median (
Me
), he ﬁ s (
Q1
) and he las (
Q3
) qua ile, and di ide he coun ies
in o ou g oups (Table 2).
Table 2. G oups wi h espec o ulﬁlmen o he SDGs. Sou ce: own elabo a ion.
G oup Value o he TOPSIS Measu e
A— e y high ulﬁlmen (Q3,1]
B— a he high ulﬁlmen (Me,Q3]
C— a he low ulﬁlmen (Q1,Me]
D— e y low ulﬁlmen [0, Q1]
The coun ies, o which he TOPSIS measu e calcula ed o labou ma ke a iables
ha a e ela ed o SDGs alls in he ﬁ s in e al—
(Q3
,1
]
in he la ges numbe o qua e s
o he analysed pe iod, c ea e he benchma k.
In he whole analysed pe iod (ﬁ s qua e 2018– hi d qua e 2021) we can dis inguish
ou coun ies ha ulﬁl he sus ainable de elopmen goals ela ed o he labou ma ke
o he highes deg ee—Denma k, The Ne he lands, Finland, and Sweden. The e o e, we
ea hese coun ies as he benchma k in u he analysis. I is also wo h no ing ha , on
he o he side, he e a e coun ies wi h e y low ulﬁlmen o he SDGs—Bulga ia, G eece,
Spain, I aly, Romania, and Slo akia. These coun ies ha e he lowes deg ee o ulﬁlmen o
SDGs ela ed o he labou ma ke in he whole analysed pe iod. We p esen he esul s o
g ouping coun ies wi h espec o he ulﬁlmen o he SDGs ela ed o he labou ma ke
in Table 3.
Table 3. G oups o coun ies wi h espec o ulﬁlmen o he SDGs. Sou ce: own calcula ions on he
basis o he Eu os a da a.
Coun y 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3
Belgium C C C C C C C C D DCDCCC
Bulga ia D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Czechia A A B B B B B B B A ABABA
Denma k A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A
Ge many B B B B C C C B B C C B B B B
Es onia A B B A B A A A A A A ABAB
I eland B C C C B C C B B C C C A A A
G eece D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Spain D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
F ance B B B B B B B B B B B B C C B
C oa ia D D D D D C D D C C C CDCD
I aly D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Cyp us C C C C C D C C C C D C C D C
La ia C C C C C C C B C B B B C B B
Li huania B A A B B B B C C C C B C C C
Luxembou g A A A A A A A A A B A A B B C
Hunga y C C B B B C B B B B B C C C B
Mal a C B C C A A A C A A B A A C A
Ne he lands A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A
Aus ia B B A A A B B A B B B B B A B
Poland C C C C C B B C C B C C B B C
Po ugal C C C C C C C C C C C C C C C
Romania D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Slo enia B B B B C B C C C C B C B B C
Slo akia D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Finland A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A
Sweden A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A
4.2. Assessmen o he Si ua ion o EU Coun ies in Thei Labou Ma ke s
We use he ollowing a iables o assessmen o he si ua ion in he labou ma ke s o
he EU coun ies:
x1— o al unemploymen a e (in %);
x2—unemploymen a e o people aged 15–24 yea s (in %);
x3— o al ac i i y a e (in %);
93
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 3646
x4—ac i i y a e o people aged 15–24 yea s (in %);
x5—ac i i y a e o people aged 55 yea s o mo e (in %);
x6— o al employmen a e (in %);
x7—employmen a e o people aged 15–24 yea s (in %);
x8—employmen a e o people aged 55 yea s o mo e (in %).
Many au ho s also iden i y o he indica o s o labou ma ke condi ions, including
job ﬁnding and sepa a ion a es, job acancy a e, long- e m unemploymen a e, hou s o
wo k, wages and compensa ion cos s, labou p oduc i i y, and employmen in he in o mal
economy [
74
,
75
]. Howe e , including hem in ou analysis is impossible o wo main
easons. Fi s , hey a e no always qua e ly, bu annual da a. Second, hey a e no a ailable
o all EU coun ies. As he ime se ies used mus be comple e due o he me hods used,
we ha e decided o limi ou sel es o only he selec ed a iables.
In o de o ini ially assess he gene al si ua ion in he labou ma ke in he EU, we
p esen some basic desc ip i e s a is ics (a i hme ic mean, s anda d de ia ion, coe ﬁcien o
a ia ion, median, skewness, minimum, and maximum) o o al unemploymen , ac i i y,
and employmen a es in Tables A1–A3 in Appendix A. The a e age and median alues o
analysed a iables had been imp o ing du ing he p e-pandemic pe iod. When he s a e o
he pandemic was decla ed (11 Ma ch 2020), he indica o s had begun o de e io a e and
eached hei wo s alues in he hi d qua e o 2020. The gene al si ua ion hen s a ed
o imp o e. All analysed indica o s eached he bes alues in he whole analysed pe iod
in he hi d qua e o 2021. We may ha e been obse ing a e i al om he ecession
caused by he COVID-19 pandemic. Howe e , u he da a on he si ua ion in he EU
labou ma ke a e a he unclea due o he ongoing wa in Uk aine.
The unemploymen a e has much highe ola ili y han he ac i i y and employmen
a es. I means ha he e is much highe di e ence be ween he bes (Czechia, Ge many,
and The Ne he lands) and he wo s (G eece, Spain, o I aly) coun ies. Addi ionally, in
case o G eece and I aly, we can obse e high, ou lying alues o he unemploymen a e.
This causes a high, posi i e skewness o he dis ibu ion o his indica o . In case o he
ac i i y and employmen a es, he dis ibu ions ha e mode a e, nega i e skewness.
The pa e n and an i-pa e n alues o all a iables in he whole pe iod a e p esen ed
in Table 4.
Table 4. Pa e n and an i-pa e n alues. Sou ce: own calcula ions on he basis o he Eu os a da a.
Speciﬁca ion x1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8
pa e n 2.0% 5.1% 74.4% 79.9% 83.6% 71.5% 73.5% 78.7%
an i-pa e n 20.7% 44.0% 53.3% 19.4% 39.0% 43.3% 11.8% 37.6%
The bes alues o he unemploymen a es ( o al and o young people) a e in Czechia
(in he whole yea 2019 and in he ﬁ s qua e o 2020 o he o me and in he ou h qua -
e o 2019 o he la e ). The wo s alues o he unemploymen a es a e in G eece (in he
ﬁ s qua e o 2018 o bo h a es). The pa e n alues o ac i i y and employmen a es
o o al popula ion and o young people a e in he Ne he lands (all o hem in he hi d
qua e o 2021), while he pa e n alues o hese indica o s o people aged 55 yea s o
mo e a e in Sweden ( o ac i i y a e in he ou h qua e o 2020 and o employmen a e
in he ou h qua e o 2018). The an i-pa e n alue o o al ac i i y a e is in I aly (in he
second qua e o 2020), ac i i y a e o young people in Bulga ia (in he hi d qua e o
2021) and ac i i y a e o people aged 55 yea s o mo e in Romania (in he second qua e
o 2018). The wo s alues o o al employmen a e and employmen a e o young people
a e in G eece (bo h in he second qua e o 2020), employmen a e o young people in
and employmen a e o people aged 55 yea s o mo e in Romania (in he second qua e
o 2018). In e es ingly, we canno say ha he pandemic pe iod has b ough a wo sening
o he labou ma ke indica o s—in 6 ou o 8 cases, he bes alues ha e been achie ed
94
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 3646
du ing he pandemic pe iod. In hal o cases, he wo s alues o indica o s ha e happened
in he p e-pandemic pe iod.
In addi ion, as in he case o indica o s ela ed o he sus ainable de elopmen goals,
he di e ences a e some imes e y high. Such a si ua ion is he case o o al unemploymen
a e ( he wo s alue is o e 10 imes highe han he bes one) and unemploymen a e o
young people ( he wo s alue is almos 9 imes highe han he bes one).
We now epea he TOPSIS me hod o he a iables desc ibing he si ua ion in he
labou ma ke . A e applying Equa ions (1)–(8) and calcula ing he TOPSIS measu e, we
ob ain he assessmen o he si ua ion in he labou ma ke . We hen calcula e median and
qua iles o e e y qua e in he analysed pe iod and c ea e he g oups o coun ies. The
in e als a e he same as in Table 2. Howe e , in case o he assessmen o he si ua ion, he
g oups a e as ollows: A— e y good si ua ion, B— a he good si ua ion, C— a he poo
si ua ion, and D— e y poo si ua ion. We p esen he esul s in Table 5.
Table 5.
G oups o coun ies wi h espec o he si ua ion in hei labou ma ke s. Sou ce: own
calcula ions on he basis o he Eu os a da a.
Coun y 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2021Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3
Belgium C D C C C C C C C C C C C C C
Bulga ia C C D C C C C C C D C C C C C
Czechia B B B B B B B B B A A B B A B
Denma k A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A
Ge many A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A
Es onia A A B A A B A A A B B B A B B
I eland B BABAAAAABBABBA
G eece D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Spain D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
F ance D D D D D D D D D C C C C C C
C oa ia D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
I aly D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Cyp us D C C D D C C C C C C C C C B
La ia C C B C C C C B C B B B C C C
Li huania C B B B B B B C C C C C B C C
Luxembou g C C C C C C D C D D D D C B C
Hunga y B B B B B C B B B B B B B B B
Mal a A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A
Ne he lands A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A
Aus ia A A A A A A A A A A A A A A A
Poland B C C C C B B B B A B B B B B
Po ugal C C C C CDCDCCDDDDD
Romania D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Slo enia B B C B B B C C B C C C C C B
Slo akia C C C C C C C C C C C C D D D
Finland B B B B B B B B B B A A A A A
Sweden A A A A B A B B B B B B B B C
Denma k, Ge many, Mal a, The Ne he lands, and Aus ia a e amongs he coun ies
wi h he bes si ua ion in hei labou ma ke s in he whole analysed pe iod (in bo h p e-
pandemic and pandemic pe iods). On he o he hand, G eece, Spain, C oa ia, I aly, and
Romania a e he coun ies wi h he wo s si ua ion in he whole analysed pe iod. When we
compa e he esul s o analysis o he si ua ion in he labou ma ke s o ulﬁlmen o SDGs,
i u ns ou ha he bes si ua ion does no always co espond wi h he highes ulﬁlmen
o he SDGs. Denma k and The Ne he lands a e he coun ies wi h he bes ou look wi h
espec o bo h hei labou ma ke s and ulﬁlmen o SDGs (in he whole analysed pe iod).
Finland and Sweden a e always among he bes wi h espec o ulﬁlmen o he SDGs, bu
no in he case o hei gene al si ua ion in hei labou ma ke s. In e es ingly, hei si ua ion
changes in di e en di ec ions. Finland, since he beginning un il he end o 2nd qua e
2020, is in g oup “B” and in g oup “A” a e wa ds, while Sweden is in g oup “A” un il he
2nd qua e 2019, in g oup “B” a e wa ds and un il he end o he 2nd qua e 2021. In he
las analysed pe iod, i alls in o he g oup “C”. I is mos ly caused by ela i ely high (as
compa ed o he bes coun ies) unemploymen a es. Finland’s si ua ion imp o es mos ly
due o inc ease in ac i i y and employmen a es.
Ge many, Mal a, and Aus ia— he emaining coun ies wi h he bes si ua ion in hei
labou ma ke s—a e no in he g oup o coun ies wi h he highes deg ee o ulﬁlmen o
95
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 3646
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104
Ci a ion: Bieszk-S olo z, B.;
Ma kowicz, I. The Impac o he
COVID-19 Pandemic on he Si ua ion
o he Unemployed in Poland.
A S udy Using Su i al Analysis
Me hods. Sus ainabili y 2022,14,
12677. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/
su141912677
Academic Edi o s: ¸S e an C is ian
Ghe ghina and Liliana Nicole a
Simionescu
Recei ed: 30 Augus 2022
Accep ed: 2 Oc obe 2022
Published: 5 Oc obe 2022
Publishe ’s No e: MDPI s ays neu al
wi h ega d o ju isdic ional claims in
published maps and ins i u ional a ﬁl-
ia ions.
Copy igh : © 2022 by he au ho s.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Swi ze land.
This a icle is an open access a icle
dis ibu ed unde he e ms and
condi ions o he C ea i e Commons
A ibu ion (CC BY) license (h ps://
c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/
4.0/).
sus ainabili y
A icle
The Impac o he COVID-19 Pandemic on he Si ua ion o
he Unemployed in Poland. A S udy Using Su i al
Analysis Me hods
Bea a Bieszk-S olo z * and Iwona Ma kowicz
Ins i u e o Economics and Finance, Uni e si y o Szczecin, 71-101 Szczecin, Poland
*Co espondence: [email p o ec ed]
Abs ac :
Many s udies poin o he impac o he COVID-19 pandemic on he socio-economic
si ua ion o coun ies and, consequen ly, on he achie emen o sus ainable de elopmen goals.
Al hough e med a heal h c isis, he pandemic has also had an impac on he labou ma ke . The
imposed es ic ions caused companies o close o educe hei ope a ions. Employees swi ched
o emo e wo k, bu also o en los hei jobs empo a ily o pe manen ly. Howe e , he impac o
he pandemic on he labou ma ke is no so ob ious. This is indica ed by ou esea ch and ha o
o he esea che s. In his pape , we used indi idual da a on he unemployed egis e ed a he labou
o ﬁce in Szczecin (Poland) and we e hus able o apply su i al analysis me hods. These me hods
allowed us o assess changes in he du a ion o unemploymen and he in ensi y o aking up wo k
o indi idual coho s (unemployed people de egis e ed in a gi en qua e ). The esul s indica e, on
he one hand, he p oblems in he labou ma ke du ing he pandemic and, on he o he hand, he
adap ed eac ion o he unemployed o he si ua ion and he accele a ion o he decision o accep an
o e ed job.
Keywo ds: egis e ed unemploymen ; COVID-19 pandemic; su i al analysis
1. In oduc ion
E en be o e he pandemic eme ged, he global economy had slowed down. Acco ding
o The Sus ainable De elopmen Goals Repo 2021 [
1
], he heal h c isis caused by COVID-
19 dis up ed economic ac i i y wo ldwide and caused he wo s ecession since he G ea
Dep ession. COVID-19 c ea ed a heigh ened ad e se impac on human li e, he economy,
he en i onmen , and he ene gy and anspo sec o s compa ed o he p e-COVID-19
scena io [
2
]. In 2020, 255 million ull- ime jobs we e los . This is abou ou imes he
numbe los du ing he global ﬁnancial c isis in 2009. The pandemic has placed in o mally
employed wo ke s, young wo ke s, wo ke s wi h disabili ies, and women a a pa icula
isk. The e is a high p obabili y o job loss o empo a y agency wo ke s, ma ginal pa -
ime wo ke s, on-call wo ke s, and independen con ac o s in sec o s ha a e hea ily
a ec ed [
3
]. The au ho s o he Sus ainable De elopmen Goals Repo 2022 [
4
] ound ha
in 2021 he global economy s a ed o ebound and e ec ed some imp o emen in e ms
o unemploymen . Howe e , his eco e y a ied conside ably ac oss egions, coun ies,
sec o s, and labou ma ke g oups. In low- and lowe middle-income coun ies, small ﬁ ms
we e pa icula ly disad an aged. The conﬂic in Uk aine is expec ed o se iously slow
global g ow h in 2022.
In he ace o all hese e en s, he p ocess o achie ing he Sus ainable De elopmen
Goals is h ea ened. The COVID-19 pandemic inc eased unemploymen as manu ac u ing
and o he indus ies closed due o manda ed social isola ion, esul ing in a descen in o
po e y [
5
]. Ad e se changes ha e a ec ed many sphe es o human li e. En i onmen al
pollu ion inc eased due o an inc ease in o ganic and ino ganic was e [
6
]. Wi h he de-
elopmen o he COVID-19 pandemic, e y se e e economic deg ow h and imbalances
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 12677. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/su141912677 h ps://www.mdpi.com/jou nal/sus ainabili y
105
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 12677
began [
7
–
10
]. Among o he hings, he achie emen o SDG Goal 8— o p omo e sus ained,
inclusi e, and sus ainable economic g ow h; ull and p oduc i e employmen ; and decen
wo k o all—was h ea ened. Alibego ic e al. [
11
] anked his goal among he mos
h ea ened by he pandemic. High unemploymen a es in he EU sugges ed labou ma ke
imbalances and signalled an economic ecession. A s udy by Ga ilu
,
ăe al. [
12
] sugges s
ha he labou ma ke si ua ion in Poland du ing he pandemic was no bad. The un-
employmen a e inc eased be ween 2020 and 2021 bu was much lowe han in many
EU-27 coun ies (below a e age). Poland’s employmen a e was only sligh ly lowe han
he a e age se o he EU-27. Poland’s ela i ely good posi ion is also conﬁ med by a
s udy by Lee e al. [
13
]. In he anking o economic esilience o 52 coun ies wo ldwide,
Poland achie ed an a e age sco e. Howe e , as Lee e al. [
14
] poin ou , he labou ma ke
indica o s in he ini ial phase o he pandemic should be iewed wi h cau ion. Unemploy-
men does no indica e he ac ual scale o dis up ion o wo ke s, as many people keep
hei jobs bu a e no wo king ( he e o e, hey a e conside ed employed), ha e los hei
jobs bu do no sea ch o jobs ( he e o e, hey a e conside ed inac i e), o a e wo king
sho e hou s ( he e o e, hey a e conside ed employed again). In he longe e m, he
impac o he pandemic on labou ma ke s in he EU will become e iden once p o ec i e
labou ma ke policies a e abolished [
15
]. Cu en ly, he labou ma ke si ua ion in Poland
is good conside ing he si ua ion in EU coun ies (Figu e 1). In e ms o he ha monised
unemploymen a e, Poland anks hi d among he coun ies wi h he lowes a es.
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Figu e 1.
Ha monised unemploymen a e in EU coun ies in he 1s qua e o 2022. Sou ce: own
elabo a ion on he basis o da a om S a is ics Poland— egis e ed unemploymen qua e 2022
(h ps://s a .go .pl/en, accessed on 1 June 2022).
The unemploymen a e in Poland has been s eadily dec easing since he beginning
o i s EU accession. In May 2004, i was 19.4% and in Oc obe 2019 i was only 5.0%. This
end was un o una ely bucked du ing he pandemic pe iod. A he end o 2020, he
unemploymen a e was 6.3% and a he end o 2021 i was 5.4%. The yea 2020 was unique
due o he global COVID-19 pandemic. This also se e ely inﬂuenced he labou ma ke ,
which, simila o a lens, concen a es he e ec s o he majo changes aking place in bo h
he economy and social li e. In Poland, a s a e o epidemic was announced in Ma ch 2020.
Bo h i s cou se and he measu es aken o p e en he sp ead o he i us dis up ed he
ypical ma ke game o supply and demand o labou [16].
In his eme gency si ua ion, many companies closed down o educed hei ac i i ies.
O cou se, his ansla ed in o job losses, inc eased unemploymen , and a dec ease in he
popula ion’s income. As we ha e al eady no ed, his si ua ion was empo a y. In many
coun ies, legisla ion, online lea ning, and wo k oppo uni ies ha e been pu in place o
educe he nega i e e ec s o he pandemic. Ne e heless, i has been poin ed ou ha 2020
106
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 12677
was o a speciﬁc signiﬁcance o he labou ma ke si ua ion. In Poland, he si ua ion be o e
he pandemic was sys ema ically imp o ing ( he wo king popula ion was inc easing, and
he unemployed popula ion was dec easing). The posi i e ends in he labou ma ke , as
indica ed by he inc easing employmen a e, he s abilisa ion o he ac i i y a e, and he
dec easing unemploymen a e, we e dis up ed a e he announcemen o he epidemic in
Ma ch 2020.
As S a is ics Poland poin s ou , he la ges changes in he economic ac i i y o he
popula ion— esul ing om he ci cums ances accompanying he ﬁgh agains he COVID-
19 pandemic— ook place in he second qua e o 2020. The in oduc ion o emo e wo k
and he educ ion in he a e age weekly wo king ime we e impo an aspec s. I should
be no ed ha in he yea s o an economic boom, he second and he hi d qua e o a
yea compa ed o he ou h and he ﬁ s qua e a e usually cha ac e ised by dec easing
unemploymen , whe eas his seasonal pe iodici y was no main ained in 2020.
We pu o wa d he ollowing esea ch hypo heses:
Hypo hesis 1 (H1): An inc ease in unemploymen as a esul o he heal h c isis.
Hypo hesis 2 (H2): A longe job sea ch ime a e he onse o he pandemic.
Hypo hesis 3 (H3): A educed in ensi y o aking up wo k a e he onse o he pandemic.
These hypo heses we e based on he belie ha he pandemic, as a c isis phenomenon,
would ha e a nega i e impac on he labou ma ke . The closu e o companies o he
educ ion in hei ac i i ies clea ly indica es a educed demand o labou du ing a di ﬁ-
cul pe iod.
The aim o he esea ch is o assess he impac o he COVID-19 pandemic on he
si ua ion o he unemployed in Szczecin. The s udy uses indi idual da a on he du a ion
o unemploymen o people egis e ed wi h he Po ia Labou O ﬁce in he pe iod om
Q1 2019 o Q1 2022. Such da a enable he use o su i al analysis me hods o indica e
whe he he du a ion o a job sea ch by he unemployed changed du ing he pe iod o he
pandemic’s eme gence. Thanks o he possibili y o using censo ed da a, i was possible
o include people who we e de egis e ed o wo k and hose who we e de egis e ed o
o he easons.
I should be added ha Szczecin is a la ge oi odeship ci y. I is loca ed in he no h-
wes e n pa o Poland. I has a ound 400,000 inhabi an s. As in o he ci ies, i is no
only a place o wo k o he inhabi an s o Szczecin, bu also o he inhabi an s o he
egion. I s loca ion on he Bay o Pome ania makes Szczecin a po ci y wi h access o he
Bal ic Sea. Szczecin used o be a shipbuilding ci y. Today, employmen in he shipya ds
is ma ginal. Howe e , Szczecin s ill has a po ha o ms a single en i y wi h he po o
´
Swinouj´scie. I is domina ed by he g owing e-comme ce sec o , he logis ics sec o , he
in o ma ion echnology sec o , and mode n business se ices. Special economic zones and
la ge wa ehouses (Zalando, Amazon, e c.) a e being es ablished in he icini y o Szczecin.
This c ea es jobs o he capi al o he egion. Thus, he di ec ions o he de elopmen o he
labou ma ke in Szczecin a e he same as in o he ci ies and he esea ch esul s ob ained
may be help ul in c ea ing labou ma ke policies in c isis pe iods in o he ci ies, Poland,
and o he coun ies.
The manusc ip is o ganised as ollows: Sec ion 2 p esen s he li e a u e e iew. In
Sec ion 3, we p esen he da a and esea ch me hods. Sec ion 4 p esen s he esul s o he
empi ical analysis. In Sec ion 5, we p esen he discussion o he ob ained esul s. The
manusc ip ends wi h ou conclusions.
2. Li e a u e e iew
The dynamics o he COVID-19 pandemic and i s impac on he socio-economic si -
ua ion ha e become he subjec o many scien iﬁc s udies [
17
–
25
]. The esul s o hese
s udies ha e been published in a numbe o jou nals [
26
]. These s udies include he impac
107

Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 12677
o COVID-19 on he e ﬁciency o heal hca e sys ems [
27
], on ene gy ma ke s [
28
,
29
], on
labou ma ke s [
30
–
32
], on capi al ma ke s [
33
–
35
], and on selec ed indus ies [
36
,
37
]. Fo
he mos pa , he esul s o he s udies indica e a nega i e impac o he pandemic on he
socio-economic si ua ion. The eme gence o COVID-19 caused an economic shock in many
coun ies on an unp eceden ed scale. This mani es ed i sel as a decline in he alue o
he GDP. Fo example, du ing he ﬁ s wa e o he pandemic, he decline in he alue o
he GDP in he UK was 21%— he la ges in o e 60 yea s [
38
]. The decline in he alue o
he GDP in he USA du ing he same pe iod was 31.7% [
39
]. Howe e , some esea che s
also highligh he posi i e impac o COVID-19 on sus ainable de elopmen . This e e s
o he educ ion in g eenhouse gas emissions [
40
]. The le el o g eenhouse gas emissions
could ha e dec eased by abou 10%. Acco ding o Co es and Fo sy he [
41
], he pandemic
has exace ba ed p e-exis ing inequali ies in he Canadian labou ma ke . The employmen
losses we e widesp ead. They mo e in ensely a ec ed he lowe -paying occupa ions and
indus ies. People om disad an aged g oups we e in a pa icula ly di ﬁcul si ua ion in
he labou ma ke , such as Hispanics, younge wo ke s, hose wi h lowe le els o educa-
ion, and women. Blus ein e al. [
42
] also epo ha he pandemic e eals and exace ba es
exis ing inequali ies in he labou ma ke . They hink ha he COVID-19 pandemic g an s
he oppo uni y o deﬁne and desc ibe how p eca ious wo k c ea es physical, beha iou al,
ela ional, economic, psychological, and emo ional ulne abili ies ha wo sen ou comes
om c ises. The au ho s also pos ula e he applica ion o igo ous quan i a i e me hods o
de elop a new unde s anding o he na u e o unemploymen du ing his pe iod and o
de elop and assess in e en ions. An ipo a [
43
] s udied economic impac s in he con ex
o social disad an age. This wo k speciﬁcally conside s economic condi ions in egions
wi h p e-exis ing inequali ies and examines labou ma ke ou comes in al eady socially
ulne able a eas. Mo e ma ginalised egions may ha e b oade economic damages ela ed
o he pandemic. The ou comes o he s udy in [
44
] highligh ha he pandemic inc eases
he unemploymen a e obus ly mos ly in Eu opean economies. The esul s show ha
Ge many, Spain, and he UK ha e expe ienced a posi i e and signiﬁcan change in un-
employmen due o COVID-19. F ance and I aly a e expe iencing a be e employmen
si ua ion wi h espec o he COVID-19 pandemic. Tha is one o he a e nega i e e ec s o
he i us on he Eu opean labou ma ke . Bo ha e al. [
45
] analysed he impac o COVID-19
on he labou ma ke in Aus alia. They showed ha he in oduc ion o a wage subsidy
(JobKeepe ) and inc eased wel a e beneﬁ paymen s we e unable o elimina e he unce -
ain y el by indi iduals abou hei u u e ﬁnancial si ua ion. Mamgain [
46
] analysed he
labou ma ke in India du ing he pandemic. He poin ed ou ha hose a isk o losing
hei jobs du ing his pe iod we e mainly mig an wo ke s, sel -employed, small ade s,
daily wage labou e s, you h, and women, wi h he la e wo being he wo s a ec ed, as
hey mos ly wo k in he g ey zone o he Indian economy. The ag icul u al sec o abso bed
su plus labou . The au ho poin s ou ha in addi ion o measu es aimed a imp o ing
he cu en labou ma ke si ua ion, he skilling/ eskilling o he labou o ce o wo k in
pos -COVID-19-changed si ua ions is impo an . Acco ding o Edwa ds e al. [
47
], he U.S.
labou ma ke con inued o eco e in 2021 om he ecession caused by he co ona i us
pandemic. Bo h he numbe o people who we e unemployed and he unemploymen
a e dec eased o e he yea , al hough bo h measu es we e s ill abo e hei p e-pandemic
le els. A he s a o he pandemic in he USA, he numbe o unemployed in each ca -
ego y sepa a ed by he du a ion o unemploymen inc eased. In 2021, he numbe o
sho - e m unemployed pe sons declined. Tha numbe began o dec ease as people ei he
e u ned o wo k, s opped looking, o mo ed in o he longe du a ion ca ego ies. This is
e idenced by he numbe o long- e m unemployed and hei sha e o o al unemploymen
in 2021. Bo h hese indica o s emained well abo e he le els seen be o e he pandemic.
Ghe ghina e al. [48]
showed ha e-comme ce has la gely sa ed jobs, educed spending,
and p o ided employmen .
O cou se, he pandemic is one o many ac o s a ec ing he labou ma ke in Poland.
Geopoli ical ac o s, which can be ex e nal and in e nal, ha e a la ge impac . Among he
108
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 12677
ex e nal ac o s, he labou ma ke in Poland is inﬂuenced by i s EU membe ship [
49
,
50
].
The in e nal ac o s may include he e ﬁciency o he use o unds ea ma ked o coun e -
ac ing unemploymen [
51
]. Dmy ów and Bieszk-S olo z [
52
] analysed he ela ionship
be ween he unemploymen a e and he median du a ion o unemploymen in he Viseg-
ad coun ies be ween 2001 and 2017. The esea ch indica ed he exis ence o a lag in he
esponse o he du a ion o unemploymen o changes in he unemploymen a e. The
au ho s showed ha in he analysed yea s, Poland had he sho es lag (1 yea ) and he
highes co ela ion be ween hese indica o s. The implica ion is ha an inc ease in he
du a ion o unemploymen can occu e en one yea a e an inc ease in he unemploymen
a e. Thus, he e ec s o he pandemic may s ill be el a e he ﬂuc ua ions caused by
he pandemic, i.e., in 2022 o e en 2023. Howe e , he s udy o his ela ionship will be
hampe ed by he apid changes in he Polish labou ma ke caused by he ou b eak o he
wa in Uk aine.
Du ing he pandemic, a emo e o m o wo king became widesp ead. In Poland, hese
changes we e no ha a ou able. In 2018, be o e he pandemic, he sha e o emo e wo k
was 4.6%, lowe han he EU a e age o 5.2%. In 2021, he sha e in Poland inc eased o
8.9%, while he EU a e age was 12.3% [
32
]. Howe e , he pe cen age has a ied om
qua e o qua e . The esea ch conduc ed by S a is ics Poland showed ha he pe cen age
o people wo king emo ely in Poland was 11% in Q1 o 2020, 2.8% in Q3 o 2020, and 14.2%
in Q1 o 2021 [53].
Pa olo áe al. [
7
] analysed he impac o COVID-19 on he economic de elopmen o
selec ed EU coun ies in e ms o selec ed mac oeconomic indica o s. The selec ed coun ies
we e he Viseg ad g oup coun ies. They ound ha du ing he pandemic yea s (2020–2021),
Poland showed he bes economic de elopmen and Slo akia showed he wo s . Ab hám
and Voš a [
8
] assessed he selec ed economic indica o s in he Membe S a es o he EU
in he pe iod om 2010–2020. They showed ha in 2020, he unemploymen a e o he
EU27 coun ies inc eased by 5.9%, while in 2021 i dec eased by 2.8%. In some coun ies,
including Poland, i was he opposi e. The unemploymen a e in Poland dec eased by 3%
in 2020 and inc eased by 6.2% in 2021.
In o de o discuss unemploymen in Poland du ing he pandemic, i is necessa y o
men ion he de e minan s o his phenomenon. A he u n o he 20 h and 21s cen u ies,
unemploymen in Poland was cha ac e ised by ﬂuc ua ions. A he end o he 20 h cen u y,
he e was a la ge inc ease in unemploymen as a esul o he economic slowdown and he
ans o ma ion o he economy (16.4% in 1993). A e Poland’s accession o he EU (2004),
unemploymen ell s eadily om 19.0% as a esul o economic eco e y. By he onse o
he pandemic, unemploymen was dec easing ( o 5.2% in 2019). I is emphasised ha his
decline is he esul o an inc ease in demand o labou and ha s a e policy should be
di ec ed owa ds he c ea ion o new jobs. In Poland, he si ua ion on he labou ma ke
un il he pandemic was e y a ou able. The numbe o unemployed was dec easing.
The unemploymen a e in Poland in 2019 was a he lowes le el in he EU, jus a e
Czechia. Du ing he pandemic, he egis e ed unemploymen a e ose om 5.2 pe cen o
a maximum o 6.6 pe cen in Feb ua y 2021. Du ing a heal h c isis, a policy o inc easing
labou demand is di ﬁcul o e en impossible. Exis ing jobs a e sh inking, no new jobs
a e being c ea ed, and no new companies a e being es ablished. This si ua ion applies o
all coun ies.
The labou ma ke has undoub edly su e ed du ing he pandemic bo h in Poland and
elsewhe e. Resea ch shows ha employmen in U.S. ell by 21% in Ap il 2022 compa ed o
Feb ua y and an inc ease was seen in June [
54
]. Resea ch also conﬁ ms ha he pandemic
is he cause o inc eased unemploymen in Slo akia [
55
]. Since Ma ch 2020, he egis e ed
unemploymen a e has inc eased ( om 6.2% o 8.4% in July) and he e was a la ge inﬂux
o jobseeke s in Ap il.
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Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 12677
3. Ma e ials and Me hods
3.1. Da a
Ou esea ch is based on he indi idual da a om he Po ia Labou O ﬁce (Polish
abb e ia ion PUP) in Szczecin (Poland). The s udy, he e o e, ocused on egis e ed unem-
ploymen . I should be no ed ha only Po ia Labou O ﬁces in Poland a e he sou ce o
such da a. The Cen al S a is ical O ﬁce in Poland and Eu os a only ha e agg ega ed da a,
which a e no use ul o s udies using su i al analysis models. Fo his eason, he da a
used in he s udy a e unique. The da a ex ac ed included 31,961 people de egis e ed om
he labou o ﬁce in he pe iod 01.01.2019–31.03.2022. The da a included he da e o egis a-
ion and he da e o de egis a ion, as well as he eason o de egis a ion. The easons
o de egis a ion can a y, and he e a e dozens o hem. Since we analysed he e en o
aking up a job, we di ided all he unemployed in o wo g oups: hose who ook up a job
and hose who we e de egis e ed o o he easons (e.g., esigna ion om he agency o he
o ﬁce, going ab oad, o e i emen ). Based on he da e o egis a ion and de egis a ion,
we de e mined he du a ion o egis e ed unemploymen — he andom a iable T. The end
e en o he obse a ion is aking up a job. De egis a ion o o he easons was aken as
a censo ed obse a ion. The analysis was conduc ed o he 13 qua e s comp ising he
esea ch pe iod. The size o each subg oup is shown in Table 1.
Table 1. Pe sons de egis e ed om he PUP in Szczecin in he pe iod Q1 2019–Q1 2022.
Qua e Comple e
Obse a ions
Censo ed
Obse a ions To al
I 2019 1490 1853 3343
II 2019 1429 1826 3255
III 2019 1402 1788 3190
IV 2019 1499 1589 3088
I 2020 1426 1337 2763
II 2020 1000 309 1309
III 2020 1529 332 1861
IV 2020 1518 449 1967
I 2021 1359 632 1991
II 2021 1467 727 2194
III 2021 1417 1041 2458
IV 2021 1424 913 2337
I 2022 1188 1017 2205
To al 18,148 13,813 31,961
The obse a ion was e mina ed in he ﬁ s qua e o 2022. The e we e wo easons
o his:
1.
Reduc ion in he numbe o cases and dea hs due o COVID-19. Acco dingly, he
Polish go e nmen li ed sani a y egime es ic ions in 2022.
2.
The labou ma ke in Poland in he nex qua e , i.e., Q2 2022, was undoub edly
hea ily inﬂuenced by he s a o wa in Uk aine. Poland has aken in se e al million
e ugees, who ha e had a majo inﬂuence on he labou ma ke , also in Szczecin.
3.2. Me hodology
In he s udy o he du a ion o unemploymen , we used he su i al analysis me hods.
These me hods enabled he use o censo ed da a. The basis o he su i al analysis is a
andom a iable Tdesc ibing he du a ion (su i al ime) o an indi idual in a pa icula
s a e. The obse a ion o an indi idual con inues un il an e en occu s ha ends he obse -
a ion. I he e en does no occu wi hin he speciﬁed ime in e al, such an obse a ion is
assumed o be censo ed. The inclusion o censo ed obse a ions in subsequen analyses
is one o he many ad an ages o su i al analysis. O iginally, hese me hods we e used
in demog aphy, medicine, and eliabili y heo y. In he case o he du a ion o a pe son’s
li e o he ope a ing ime o a de ice, ce ain egula i ies ha e been obse ed ha make
110
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 12677
pa ame ic me hods possible. In he case o he du a ion o socio-economic phenomena, he
dis ibu ion o he du a ion o he phenomenon is mos ly unknown, so non-pa ame ic o
semipa ame ic me hods a e used. Me hods o he su i al analysis a e used in he eal es-
a e ma ke [
56
,
57
], in he capi al ma ke [
29
,
34
] in he s udy o he du a ion o ﬁ ms [
58
,
59
],
in he s udy o du a ion o ade ela ionships [
60
], and in he labou ma ke [
61
,
62
]. The
cumula i e dis ibu ion unc ion o andom a iable T(F( )) desc ibes he p obabili y o an
e en occu ing no la e han ime . The basic unc ion in su i al analysis is he su i al
unc ion S( ), which desc ibes he p obabili y ha an e en will no occu by ime .I is
desc ibed by he ollowing o mula [63]:
S( )=P( >T)=1−F( )(1)
whe e
T—du a ion;
F( )—cumula i e dis ibu ion unc ion o andom a iable T.
Since o mos socio-economic phenomena he dis ibu ion o du a ion is no known,
s udies o en use he non-pa ame ic Kaplan–Meie es ima o [64]:
ˆ
S( i)=
i
∏
j=11−dj
nj o i=1, 2, . . . , k, (2)
whe e
i— he poin in ime when a leas one e en occu s, 1< 2<···< k, 0=0;
di—numbe o e en s in ime i;
ni—numbe o uni s obse ed in ime i,ni=ni−1−di−1−zi−1;
zi—numbe o censo ed obse a ions in ime i.
Qua iles o he andom a iable wi h he cumula i e dis ibu ion unc ion
F( )
a e
de e mined om he ela ion:
F( )=
0.25,
F( )=
0.50 and
F( )=
0.75. Du a ion qua iles
a e momen s o ime o which he su i al unc ion
S( )
akes he ollowing alues:
S( )=
0.25,
S( )=
0.50, and
S( )=
0.75. No all qua iles o du a ion can exis . This is
because o he exis ence o censo ed obse a ions. Du ing he obse a ional pe iod, no
all indi iduals belonging o he coho expe ience he e en . These ones s ill emain in
he coho .
Two su i al cu es can be compa ed. App op ia e es s can be used o his pu pose.
They allow us o analyse he signiﬁcance o di e ences be ween wo su i al cu es. The e
a e many o hem, and we do no ha e a consis en se o c i e ia o decide which es has
he g ea es powe and should be used in he analysis. Some o hem a e mo e sensi i e o
he cou se o he su i al cu e in i s ini ial pa and o he s in i s ﬁnal pa . The sample
size, p obabili y densi y o he su i al unc ion, and censo ship mechanism de e mine
he powe o hese es s [
65
]. We used wo es s in he s udy: he log- ank es and Gehan’s
gene alised Wilcoxon es . The log- ank es (also known as he Man el log- ank es , he
Cox Man el log- ank es , and he Man el–Haenszel es ) is he mos commonly used es
o compa ing su i al dis ibu ions. I can be applied o da a wi h p og essi e censo ing
and gi es equal weigh o ea ly and la e ailu es. I assumes ha su i al cu es o
he wo g oups a e pa allel. In p ac ice, his is o en no he case. Then, he gene alised
Wilcoxon Gehan es (also known as he B eslow’s es and Gehan’s es ) can be applied. I
is applicable o da a whe e he e is p og essi e censo ing. When he su i al unc ions a e
no pa allel and when he e a e ew censo ed da a, he Wilcoxon Gehan es has g ea e
powe han he log- ank es . I has low powe when he deg ee o censo ing is high. I
gi es mo e weigh o ea ly ailu es [
66
]. I we a e compa ing su i al cu es in he ini ial
un, we should use his es .
The su i al analysis examines he in ensi y o occu ence o an e en in he momen
unde he condi ion o su i al un il ime . This in ensi y is desc ibed by he haza d
111
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 12677
h ea o a wo sening si ua ion in he labou ma ke , likely alongside ewe oppo uni ies o
wo k in he g ey economy, inﬂuenced he accele a ion o decisions among he unemployed.
Co es and Fo sy he [
41
] also indica e ha he inﬂuence o he COVID-19 pandemic
on he labou ma ke is he e ogeneous in he Uni ed S a es. This he e ogenei y applies
o a ious occupa ions and indus ies as well as demog aphic subg oups. The au ho s
concluded ha he pandemic has had he e ec o exace ba ing p e-exis ing inequali ies.
Lo on e al. [
69
] highligh he pa icula ly di ﬁcul si ua ion o mo he s in he labou
ma ke du ing he pandemic (due o school closu es). Acco ding o G oshen [
70
], he
impac o he pandemic on he labou ma ke in he U.S. was signiﬁcan . The ini ial shock
was e y ab up and deep by all his o ical s anda ds. The au ho used wo indica o s, he
na ional unemploymen a e and he change in pay oll jobs, in he s udy. The COVID-19
pandemic has had a pa icula ly s ong impac on he ou ism sec o . I has a ec ed he
coun ies o he Medi e anean a ea o he highes deg ee. In addi ion o he high numbe
o in ec ions and dea hs, he e ha e been signiﬁcan economic losses in he egion [
71
]. The
impac o he COVID-19 pandemic on he labou ma ke has encou aged many scien is s
o examine and quan i y i s consequences in his a ea. The li e a u e mainly p esen s
mac oeconomic analyses. The e is a lack o s udies aimed a examining he impac on he
labou ma ke in he indi idual municipali ies. In addi ion, Ko e a and Schmi man [
72
]
used mac o and mic o da a o s udy he labou ma ke . They concluded ha he pandemic
in Japan had a la ge nega i e impac on employmen , labou o ce pa icipa ion, ea nings,
and labou ma ke mobili y. Ou esea ch is also pa o his end, and i conce ns he
labou ma ke o smalle a eas o he coun y ( ega ding he speciﬁcs o business and
demog aphic cha ac e is ics). I is he peculia i ies o bo h he local and na ional labou
ma ke s ha a e impo an in he p ocesses o esponse and adap a ion in a pandemic
si ua ion [
73
,
74
]. Zieli´nski [
75
] analysed he impac o he pandemic on he labou ma ke
in he Viseg ad G oup (V4) coun ies, including he Polish labou ma ke . He compa ed he
yea s 2018–2019 o 2020–2021, and he esul s o his s udy coincide wi h ou obse a ions.
He showed ha he pandemic a ec ed labou ma ke imbalances ela i ely mode a ely.
Impo an ly, i s opped he end o dec easing unemploymen a es obse ed in all V4
coun ies in 2018–2019. The highes unemploymen a e in Poland in Q1 2021 co esponded
o he lowes numbe o hou s wo ked pe week (usual weekly hou s o wo k). Poland
expe ienced a e u n o p e-pandemic unemploymen a es in Q4 2021.
The speed a which jobs a e aken up du ing a pandemic depends on he ype o
job. Resea ch indica es ha he g ea es nega i e impac o a pandemic is on he ca e -
ing indus y and sales and cus ome se ice jobs. In con as , jobs in wa ehousing and
anspo may inc ease as a esul o he inc ease in e-comme ce and he deli e y o goods
o cus ome s [
76
]. The esea ch shows ha in Aus alia and Canada, he inc ease in he
numbe o acancies being pos ed online men ioning ‘wo k om home’ a angemen s was
especially s ong [77].
Losing a job o no being able o ob ain one a e pa icula ly acu e si ua ions du ing
a c isis. The pandemic uels unemploymen , whose sou ce is usually exogenous o he
indi idual and can a ec men al heal h [
78
]. The ea o a di ﬁcul si ua ion may mobilise
indi iduals o in ensi y hei job sea ch and o accep any kind o job.
Di e en ﬁndings om ou s a e p esen ed by
Hens ik e al. [79]
. Acco ding o hese
au ho s, he COVID-19 pandemic pa icula ly a ec ed labou ma ke s. The e was a sha p
inc ease in unemploymen and a decline in job acancies. Depending on how he in ensi y
o job sea ch changes a e he shock, he supply side o he labou ma ke may exace ba e
o mi iga e he e ec s o he shock on he demand o labou . The au ho s analysed how
jobseeke s in Sweden adjus ed he in ensi y and di ec ion o hei sea ch a he onse o he
c isis. They ound ha job sea ch in ensi y ell by 40% in Ma ch and Ap il 2020 and e u ned
o i s p e ious le el in July 2020. They explain he d op in sea ch in ensi y by a decline in
he numbe o acancies and by ea s o illness on he pa o bo h employe s and po en ial
employees ( he Swedish go e nmen ’s p e en i e measu es we e ex emely mild). Acco d-
ing o Sheldon [
80
], unique o he cu en c isis in Swi ze land is he sha p upsu ge in bo h
118

Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 12677
he incidence and du a ion o unemploymen . These wo a iables ha e ne e inc eased so
quickly in such a sho pe iod. Hens ik e al. [
79
], simila ly o
Be ns ein e al. [81]
, indica e
a change o di ec ion wi h espec o job sea ches. Bo h s udies poin o he phenomenon
o ‘a ﬂigh o sa e y in labou ma ke ’ occu ing du ing a heal h c isis. Small ﬁ ms o
sel -employmen a e less equen ly chosen as places/ o ms o wo k. We also ﬁnd ha he
inc ease in he in ensi y o he unemployed aking up wo k du ing he pandemic is a esul
o changes in he di ec ion o he sea ch o employmen . Many companies a e closing
down o scaling back hei ope a ions, new en ep eneu ial ini ia i es a e no being c ea ed,
and he e is a lack o casual o in o mal wo k. This con ibu es o a g ea e p opensi y o
accep jobs in he o ﬁce.
6. Conclusions
Ou s udy conﬁ med he ﬁndings o o he esea che s who ound ha he impac o
he pandemic on he labou ma ke had no been unequi ocal and a ied acco ding o
he economic si ua ion o he coun y s udied. This is also highligh ed by he au ho s o
The Sus ainable De elopmen Goals Repo 2022. De eloped economies a e expe iencing
a mo e obus eco e y. O pa icula conce n is he conﬂuence o c ises, domina ed by
COVID-19, clima e change, and conﬂic s. Resea ch conduc ed by S a is ics Poland [
82
]
shows a decline in labou demand in 2020 and a la ge inc ease in 2021. This shows ha
he ini ial unce ain y associa ed wi h he ou b eak o he pandemic was con ained ai ly
quickly. Howe e , we mus emphasise he e ha he Polish labou ma ke in 2022 and
beyond will be inﬂuenced by cu en poli ical and economic e en s. How his will a ec
he Szczecin labou ma ke will only become appa en in a ew mon hs’ ime. This will be a
s imulus o us o conduc u he esea ch.
The limi a ion o ou s udy was he use o da a om only one la ge ci y, Szczecin.
Howe e , due o he s a e policy, egional analyses a e mo e impo an han an o e all anal-
ysis (conce ning Poland as a whole). We mus poin ou ha he applied su i al analysis
me hods equi e he use o indi idual da a. Public s a is ics only p o ide agg ega ed da a.
The e o e, he added alue o ou s udy is he acquisi ion o such da a and hei use in he
s udy o egis e ed unemploymen . On he o he hand, ano he ad an age o he me hods
we ha e chosen is he possibili y o using he censo ed da a.
The ob ained empi ical esul s may p o e aluable o scien is s in e es ed in he
inﬂuence o he pandemic on he labou ma ke . These analyses a e also impo an o
poli ical decision-make s in ol ed in he e o s o mi iga ing he nega i e e ec s o he
COVID-19 pandemic wi hin na ional and egional economic sys ems. The s udy p esen ed
he e could also be use ul in he e o o eﬁne he heo e ical app oach o he economic c isis
caused by he sp ead o he i us. Ou esea ch showed ha he egis e ed unemployed
ook up wo k ela i ely quickly, bu he e a e always people on he egis e s who o en
mo e in o long- e m unemploymen . Poli ical decision-make s can educe he nega i e
impac o COVID-19 on he unemployed by p omo ing mo e aining and ac i e labou
ma ke policies o acili a e hei e u n o wo k a a decen job, which would be pa icula ly
beneﬁcial o hose who ha e been unemployed o a long- e m. The s udy p esen ed he e
could also be use ul in he e o o eﬁne he heo e ical app oach o he economic c isis
caused by he sp ead o he i us.
A e a signiﬁcan inc ease a he s a o he pandemic, unemploymen is alling
in many OECD coun ies [
83
]. Howe e , unemploymen is p ojec ed o be highe in
mos o hem han be o e he c isis. Howe e , in he con ex o his pandemic and he
accompanying labou ma ke policies, unemploymen alone p o ides only a pa ial pic u e.
In he ea ly phases o he c isis, a la ge numbe o people wi hd ew om he labou
ma ke due o cons ain s on hei job sea ch and he inc eased bu den o hei household
esponsibili ies. A he same ime, many people who main ained employmen expe ienced
a educ ion in wo king hou s (job e en ion p og ammes). I is wa ned ha in he u u e,
many o he wo ke s mos a ec ed by he pandemic may ﬁnd i di ﬁcul o e u n o
hei p e ious jobs due o a lack o app op ia e skills (e.g., due o new echnologies in
119
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 12677
p oduc ion). Suppo in he o m o upskilling and e aining is needed o ensu e ha he
eco e y is socially inclusi e. An in e es ing solu ion is he in oduc ion o a empo a y
inc ease in unemploymen beneﬁ s in Sweden [
79
]. This is ce ainly a la ge help o he
people in di ﬁcul si ua ions, bu i is a solu ion o weal hy coun ies. The ull impac o
he c isis on he labou ma ke is no ye behind us [
83
]. The e is, he e o e, a need o
con inued labou ma ke esea ch. Medical sou ces poin o he possibili y o u he wa es
o pandemics, al hough we expec hese o be much smalle in scope due o he p e alence
o accina ion and ea men expe ience. We will also obse e changes ha a e d i en by
he expe ience o en ep eneu s, such as he inc eased p ominence o e-comme ce a he
expense o adi ional ade.
Au ho Con ibu ions:
Concep ualiza ion, B.B.-S. and I.M.; me hodology, B.B.-S. and I.M.; so wa e,
B.B.-S.
and I.M.; alida ion,
B.B.-S.
and I.M.; o mal analysis, B.B.-S. and I.M.; in es iga ion,
B.B.-S.
and I.M.; esou ces, B.B.-S. and I.M.; da a cu a ion, B.B.-S. and I.M.; w i ing—o iginal d a p epa a-
ion, B.B.-S. and I.M.; w i ing— e iew and edi ing, B.B.-S. and I.M.; isualiza ion, B.B.-S. and I.M.;
supe ision, B.B.-S. and I.M.; p ojec adminis a ion, B.B.-S. and I.M.; unding acquisi ion, B.B.-S. and
I.M. All au ho s ha e ead and ag eed o he published e sion o he manusc ip .
Funding:
The p ojec is ﬁnanced wi hin he amewo k o he p og am o he Minis e o Science and
Highe Educa ion unde he name “Regional Excellence Ini ia i e” in he yea s 2019–2022; p ojec
numbe 001/RID/2018/19; he amoun o ﬁnancing PLN 10,684,000.
Ins i u ional Re iew Boa d S a emen : No applicable.
In o med Consen S a emen : No applicable.
Da a A ailabili y S a emen :
Da a come om: h ps://s a .go .pl/en (accessed on 7 July 2022) and
Po ia Labou O ﬁce in Szczecin.
Conﬂic s o In e es : The au ho s decla e no conﬂic o in e es .
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123

Ci a ion: C aw o d, J. Wo king om
Home, Telewo k, and Psychological
Wellbeing? A Sys ema ic Re iew.
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 11874.
h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/
su141911874
Academic Edi o s: ¸S e an
C is ian Ghe ghina and Liliana
Nicole a Simionescu
Recei ed: 1 Sep embe 2022
Accep ed: 20 Sep embe 2022
Published: 21 Sep embe 2022
Publishe ’s No e: MDPI s ays neu al
wi h ega d o ju isdic ional claims in
published maps and ins i u ional a ﬁl-
ia ions.
Copy igh : © 2022 by he au ho .
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Swi ze land.
This a icle is an open access a icle
dis ibu ed unde he e ms and
condi ions o he C ea i e Commons
A ibu ion (CC BY) license (h ps://
c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/
4.0/).
sus ainabili y
Re iew
Wo king om Home, Telewo k, and Psychological Wellbeing?
A Sys ema ic Re iew
Joseph C aw o d
Tasmanian School o Business and Economics, Uni e si y o Tasmania, Newnham, TAS 7248, Aus alia;
[email p o ec ed]
Abs ac :
The p ac ice o elewo k, emo e wo k, and wo king om home has g own signiﬁcan ly
ac oss he pandemic e a (2020+). These p ac ices o e new ways o wo king bu come wi h a lack o
cla i y as o he ole i plays in suppo ing he wellbeing o s a . (1) Backg ound: The pu pose o his
s udy is o examine he cu en li e a u e on wellbeing ou comes and e ec s o elewo k; (2) Me hods:
This s udy adop s a sys ema ic li e a u e e iew om 2000–2022 using he PRISMA app oach and
hema ic analysis guided by he Uni ed Na ions Sus ainable De elopmen Goals (Wellbeing, Decen
Wo k, Gende Equali y, and Inclusi e P oduc ion); (3) Resul s: I was e iden ha he e is a lack o
cla i y on he ac ual e ec s o elewo k on employee wellbeing, bu i appea ed ha i had a gene ally
posi i e e ec on he sho - e m wellbeing o s a , and c ea ed mo e ﬂexible and p oac i e wo k
design oppo uni ies; (4) Conclusions: The e is a need o mo e a ge ed esea ch in o wo k designs
ha suppo wellbeing and p oduc i i y o s a , and conside he en i onmen al sus ainabili y
changes om educed o ﬁce and onsi e wo k and inc eased wo king om home.
Keywo ds: emo e wo k; elewo k; sys ema ic li e a u e e iew; wo k design; wo k o ce planning
1. In oduc ion
Telewo k and wo king om home ha e become necessa y ools in he o ganiza ion’s
a senal o comba ing he COVID-19 pandemic. The concep , while no a di ec p oduc o
he global ou b eak has mo ed om he pe iphe y o he o e o wo k and o ganizing. Full
ime wo k be o e 2019 was ypically si ua ed in o ﬁces and wo kplaces onsi e, wi h only
3.6 pe cen o U.S. wo ke s and 5.4 pe cen o Eu opean wo ke s equi ed o wo k om
home [
1
]. Gallup [
2
] ﬁnds ha 37 pe cen o U.S. wo ke s had engaged in some o m o
elecommu ing wi hin hei oles, wi h 32 pe cen in 2006, and only 9 pe cen in 1995. In
2013, he CEO o Yahoo, Ma issa Maye , made i company policy o s a o wo k inside
o he co po a e o ﬁce, and p io o 2020 his was a common posi ion o o ganiza ions
o adop .
Indeed, s udies on he na u e o wo k, ha e p ima ily emphasized on-si e wo k wi h
a e -hou s answe ing o emails and in e na ional elecon e encing a seconda y conce n [
3
].
Ye , wo king om home is qui e di e en han o mal p ac ices o a i ing a a p e iously
designa ed ime, occupying a p o essional wo kspace o comple e daily wo k, and a ec-
ommended end ime o depa u e. Ac oss o y in-dep h in e iews, elewo ke s c ea ed
physical, empo al, beha io al, and communica i e bounda ies o enable hem o sepa a e
wo k and li e [
4
]. Ye , he au ho s acknowledge ha hese bounda ies may no be ans e -
able o ‘always on’ wo kplaces. These bounda ies o ien owa d egimen ed bu eauc a ic
me hods o o ganizing wo k [
5
], and o e conside able cons ain s o con empo a y wo k.
The esu gence o elewo k oppo uni ies o e s a p ospec i e oppo uni y o e-e alua e
es ic ed measu es o o ganizing wo k in o ﬁxed 9-5 wo k hou s.
This sys ema ic e iew e alua es he impac o elewo k on wo ke wellbeing. This
is ecognizing ha o wo kplaces—and indi iduals wi hin hem— o be sus ainable, all
wo ke s should be suppo ed o ha e and expe ience ull and p oduc i e employmen and
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 11874. h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/su141911874 h ps://www.mdpi.com/jou nal/sus ainabili y
124
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 11874
decen wo k. Decen wo k is Goal Eigh o he Uni ed Na ions Sus ainable De elopmen
Goals enume a ed in he his o ic 2030 Agenda o Sus ainable De elopmen mani es o [
6
].
While wo ke wellbeing is only one ace o he Sus ainable De elopmen Goal, i does
p o ide a key ounda ion o unde s anding how wo k e ec s wo ke s. In be e unde -
s anding how elewo k con ibu es o, o challenges, wo ke wellbeing, his e iew cu a es
ounda ional knowledge o de elopmen o decen elewo k condi ions. As a esul , he
esea ch objec i e o his s udy is o iden i y he cu en ole elewo k is ha ing on wo ke
wellbeing. To do so, he Uni ed Na ions Sus ainable De elopmen Goals is used as a
guiding amewo k o add ess he esea ch objec i e.
1.1. COVID-19 Lockdown Wo king om Home
Many o he s udies published on wo king om home du ing 2020–2022 ha e been
based on unde s anding how COVID-19 has a ec ed he wellbeing o wo ke s. Fo ex-
ample, Canales-Rome o e al. [
7
] ﬁnd ha wo king om home du ing he pandemic did
no gene ally con ibu e o nega i e wellbeing (al hough his does conﬂic s wi h much
o he li e a u e p esen ed below). Howe e , hey did ﬁnd ha pa en s wo king om
home who se ed in dual oles as ‘assis an eache s’ o hei child en did expe ience
declining wellbeing. In his s udy, he emphasis was on he es ing o ela ionships ha
ha e limi ed ans e abili y o a non-COVID-19 con ex ; wo king om home p ac ices do
no usually coincide wi h sus ained home-based emo e s uden lea ning o school-aged
child en. Ins ead, hese a e es ic ed o scena ios whe e pa en s choose o home school,
o child en ha e pe iods o school holidays, whe e hey a e no usually expec ed o join
i ual class ooms om home.
Likewise, when eﬂec ing on he COVID-19 s esso s, i becomes clea e ha wo king
om home p ac ices du ing lockdowns a e ma e ially di e en han wo king om home
du ing o beyond he pandemic e a. The de elopmen o he pandemic induced s ess
scale [
8
] assumed ha li ing and wo king du ing lockdowns c ea ed unique s ess o
humans. This included he in oduc ion o home conﬁnemen o de s, economic, social, and
p o essional loss, edesigning wo k p ac ices wi h inadequa e o unce ain esou cing, and
heigh ened anxie y om scaled heal h in o ma ion dissemina ion. This is conﬁ med in one
s udy ha examined how daily sel -leade ship enabled posi i e ou comes o daily basic
need sa is ac ion du ing he pandemic. Howe e , his ela ionship was mode a ed by daily
umina ion abou COVID-19 [
9
]. Tha is, baseline hough s abou COVID-19 ha e a di ec
e ec on how well indi iduals sa is y hei own basic needs.
1.2. P oblem S a emen
The e is cu en ly inconsis en empi ical e idence on how he p ac ices o wo king
om home and elewo k e ec employee wellbeing. While some ha e a emp ed o
esol e his, he e is a need o a social and ela ional wo k design pe spec i e on his
opic. P io o his e iew, he e ha e been wo e iews ha ha e sough o espond o he
ela ionship be ween elewo k and wellbeing. This e iew, howe e , o e s a c i ical poin o
di e ence. The ﬁ s e iew by Chi ico e al. [
10
] examines 15 manusc ip s on how wo king
om home du ing lockdowns a ec ed employee wellbeing published du ing 2020–2021.
The Chi ico e al. [
10
] e iew o e s a use ul iew o how lockdown measu es c ea ed
condi ions o declining wellbeing in employees, ye i was highly es ic i e o he lockdown
con ex . In dis inguishing, his e iew is di e en om pandemic elewo k e iew, as
i ocuses ca e ully on how elewo k is measu ed, discussed, and e alua ed ou side o
speciﬁc-pandemic lockdown scena ios. While some s udies in he ﬁnal sample a e si ua ed
inside o he pandemic, hose whose ﬁndings a e ela ed o lockdown-speciﬁc con ex s
we e excluded.
The second e iew by Beckel and Fishe [
1
] p o ides sho desc ip ions o ou -
een an eceden s, ou media o s, six mode a o s, and ﬁ een ou come a iables wi hin
a elewo k nomological ne wo k, g ouped by upda ed ca ego ies o iginally p oposed by
Allen e al. [
11
]. Adop ing a job demands- esou ces and mac o-e gonomics sys ems ap-
125
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 11874
p oach, Becke and Fishe [
1
] examine how managemen -designed s uc u es o wo k e ec
he wellbeing o employees si ua ed in hose wo kspaces. I acknowledge he key con i-
bu ion ha hese schola s made o a b oad-based unde s anding o elewo k s uc u es,
indi idual di e ence, and wellbeing om an occupa ional heal h pe spec i e. In dis in-
guishing he wo k o Beckel and Fishe [
1
] om his s udy, I adop a p oac i e wo k design
app oach ha ocuses on unde s anding how employees and employe s co-cons uc mean-
ing ul wo k en i onmen s wi hin hyb id con ex s. I ocus on he elewo k ou come o he
manage -subo dina e co-cons uc ion.
2. Theo e ical F amewo k: P oac i e Wo k Design
In a 100-yea e iew o wo k design esea ch, he e a e ﬁ e dis inc his o ical de el-
opmen s iden iﬁed [
12
]. Namely socio echnical sys ems, job cha ac e is ics, job demands-
con ol, job demand- esou ces, and ole heo y. Many o hese adop indus ialis ap-
p oaches o connec ion be ween wo k as a highly s uc u ed ac i i y. P og ession in
elewo k and mo e ﬂexible wo k design esea ch ha e been s udied in some o hese con-
ex s [
1
], howe e i seems less common ha elewo k is examined h ough wo k designs
mo e sui ed o he changing na u e o wo k. As an ou come o his e iew [
12
], he e is
ecogni ion ha p oac i e wo k designs can suppo mo e posi i e ou comes and educe
nega i e ou comes in wo kplaces.
G an and Pa ke [
13
] w o e on he changing na u e o wo k and o ganiza ions be-
cause o a global ansi ion owa ds a knowledge economy and away om indus ial
e olu ion no ions o o ganizing. The s udy highligh s p oac i e pe spec i es o wo k,
whe e a highe deg ee o unce ain y c ea es a need o dynamic esponse. In hei e iew,
social suppo , ou side in e ac ions, in e pe sonal eedback, and social con ex we e consid-
e ed key ounda ions o wo k design heo ies. In e es ingly, while G an and Pa ke [
13
]
ocus on he wo k e ec s on indi iduals and o ganizing, Fulle e al. [
14
] e idence how
employee p oac i e pe sonali y suppo s a esponse o he e ec ha s uc u al and social
challenges (e.g., hie a chical posi ion, esou ce access) ha e on hei el esponsibili y o
cons uc i e change. Tha is, he ex en o which people wi h a high p oac i e pe sonali y
ake psychological owne ship o changes made. In he con ex o elewo k, employees wi h
high p oac i e pe sonali ies may be mo e posi i e in esponding and leading change.
While indus ial and bu eauc a ic o ganiza ions adop o en igid pe spec i es o
wo k, whe e manage s design jobs o employees o be placed inside o , and engage wi h
limi ed agency in ulﬁlling hose oles, i is no as common among lea ned employees.
Bakka e al. [
9
] p opose ha sel -leade ship and play ul wo k designs enable psychological
need ulﬁlmen and ole pe o mance du ing he pandemic. Unde lying hese assump ions
is sel -de e mina ion, whe e he indi idual has agency o de e mine hei wo k, and o
achie e. In his ega d, his s udy adop s a p oac i e pe spec i e o wo k design, whe e
wo k is buil in a condi ion whe e employees can adap hei wo k pa e ns and beha io s o
suppo hei own sel -de e mined pa hway o pe o mance. In hyb id wo k en i onmen s,
his becomes mo e p ominen , al hough he e appea s o be ins i u ional esis ance o
sel -designed me hods o pe o ming.
3. Ma e ials and Me hods
This s udy adop s a sys ema ic e iew me hod o add ess he esea ch ques ion, using
he P e e ed Repo ing I ems o Sys ema ic e iews and Me a-Analyses (PRISMA) S a e-
men as guidance [
15
], and B aun and Cla ke’s [
16
] me hod o hema ic analysis o deﬁne
hemes wi hin he da a. To ensu e cla i y, and ha he ﬁndings in his pape eﬂec on
elewo k/wo king om home p ac ices, a he han ou comes ha could be a ibu able o
COVID-19 lockdowns, hose s udies whose p ima y e e ence poin is wi hin a lockdown
a e excluded. Fo example, whe e s udies measu e e ec s o go e nmen -manda es on
wellbeing. S udies ha we e published du ing he pandemic, bu speciﬁcally on ele-
wo k and wo king om home and examined he wellbeing-e ec s o wo king om home
we e included.
126
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 11874
3.1. Sea ch S a egy
The sea ch s a egy o his s udy includes wo phases. Fi s , a da abase-d i en sea ch
using Web o Science, Scopus, PsycIn o and PubMed we e used. This sea ch was limi ed o
academic jou nals, English language, and da e anged om 1 Janua y 2000 o 31 July 2022.
The sea ch ph ase was:
Ti le ( elewo k OR elecommu * OR wo k om home) AND Ti le/abs ac (wellbeing
OR well-being OR men al heal h OR men al ill-heal h).
Following he ini ial sea ch, a second sea ch using manual scanning o Google Schola
was used o iden i y any a icles missed in he sea ch (o he ﬁ s 10 pages), wi h a ﬁnal
snowball sea ch o e e ence lis s o a icles in he ﬁnal sample. A icles iden iﬁed in hese
s ages we e added a he sc eening s age (see Table 1 o summa y).
Table 1. Sea ch esul s.
Da abase Sea ch 1 Sea ch 2
Scopus 104 esul s
PsycIn o 61 esul s
Web o Science 53 esul s
PubMed 34 esul s
Google Schola 18 esul s
Re e ence e iew 4 esul s
Sub o al 252 esul s 22 esul s
To al 274 esul s
3.2. Selec ion P ocedu e and Quali y Assessmen
The PRISMA S a emen (Figu e 1 [
15
]) highligh s he p og ession o 274 manusc ip s
iden iﬁed o po en ial inclusion, using a e iew agains he in en ion o he sea ch s a egy.
Tha is, manusc ip s mus speak o elewo k (o he equi alen ) and explici ly discuss
wo ke wellbeing. PRISMA is commonly used in sus ainabili y and o ganiza ional e-
sea ch [
17
]. Th ough a sc eening o i le and abs ac s, and a second ull- ex e iew, 43
and 70 manusc ip s we e excluded, espec i ely. The ﬁnal sample was 58, and hese a e
ep esen ed in he e e ences wi h an as e isk. Impo an ly, conside able e o was made o
emo e s udies ha ocused on he e ec s o COVID-19 lockdowns (n= 34), whe e he ﬁnd-
ings we e no compa able o wo king om home con ex s ou side o he lockdown con ex .
Many s udies included, howe e , we e si ua ed wi hin he b oad pandemic landscape. The
key poin o di e ence was ha hese we e s udies no speciﬁcally on he lockdown e ec s,
and hey we e no explo ing ela ionships ha we e unique o he lockdown. While some
conﬂa ion will exis (e.g., s udies no desc ibing when hei da a was collec ed), he aim
was o only include s udies ha aimed o s udy wo king om home con ex s.
3.3. Thema ic Analysis
Adop ing he me hod o hema ic analysis [
16
], his au ho e iewed each manusc ip
mul iple imes du ing he sc eening p ocess o da a amilia iza ion. Following, ﬁndings
we e ex ac ed om each manusc ip o suppo da a coding and heme sea ching using
he Uni ed Na ions’ Sus ainable De elopmen Goals (SDGs) as guidance [
6
]. Finally, each
eme gen heme was classiﬁed and deﬁned, and he sample was e-assessed o inclusion
o ﬁnalize each hema ic ep esen a ion in s udies.
127
Sus ainabili y 2022,14, 11874
si ua ed du ing he pandemic e a. Tha is, some o he s eng h o weakness o ela ionships
may be a ibu able o empo ally speciﬁc a he han a ibu able o elewo k p ac ices. In
a c i ical assessmen o he s udies ha we e included, I now u n o conside concep s ha
we e less p esen in he ne o esea ch on elewo k and wo king om home p ac ices. I
g oup hese by wo k cul u e, en i onmen al sus ainabili y, and ansi o y s a es.
5.1. Wo k Cul u e Gaps
The s udies included ha e begun o explo e pocke s o pa hways by which wo k-
places, wo k designs, and people e ec employee wellbeing ou comes. Addi ionally, his
is impo an as schola s become clea e on wha le e s incen i ize and hinde decen and
meaning ul wo k. O c i ical impo ance is conside ing changes in he undamen al na u e
o wo k. One s udy w o e ha when manage s ocus on esul s o e speciﬁcs a ound
hou s con ibu ed, wellbeing imp o es [
38
]. Howe e , his could also ad e sely a ec
unde se ed wo ke s o incen i ize as e and lowe quali y wo k. Wha mode a ion migh
be needed o ensu e he e ec o ﬂexible wo k on wo ke s is sus ainable o e empo al and
spa ial loca ions.
Indeed, belongingness esea ch has ound mo e signiﬁcan challenges o he way in
which employees engage, s ay, o lea e wo kplaces. While job u no e could be conside ed
a lagging indica o o belongingness and wellbeing [
66
], a be e unde s anding o wha
happens o engagemen , belonging, and wellbeing o e pe iods o ime is c i ical [
67
,
68
].
Leade ship and ollowe ship co-c ea ion p ac ices [
69
] also seem o be la gely absen om
he elewo k li e a u e. When people wi h speciﬁc i les (e.g., ‘manage ’ and ‘employee’)
come oge he in onsi e wo k, he spa ial condi ions e ec he way leade ship is claimed
and g an ed. How does he blended and hyb id spa ial condi ions e ec how leade s
and ollowe s co-c ea e ela ionships, and likewise con ibu e o ou comes o wellbeing
and belonging?
In ela ion o equi y and ela ional no ms, in adi ional onsi e o ganiza ions, wo ke s
a e a o ded a deg ee o equi alen oppo uni y o ne wo k wi h manage s, colleagues, and
clien s. Tha is, by i ue o being in he same p oxima e loca ion (e.g., he wo k o ﬁce),
each employee can a emp o build ela ionships wi h mos o hei pee s. O e ime,
as leade -membe exchange heo is s would desc ibe [
70
,
71
], some o hese ela ionships
become psychologically close and o he s emain dis an . Fo elewo ke s, i hey ha e
less ace- o- ace in e ac ion oppo uni ies, will hey expe ience heigh ened disconnec ion
and social isola ion om hei colleagues? Likewise, equal oppo uni y o p omo ions o
quali a i e pe cep ions o hei pe o mance by manage s may also be di e en .
5.2. En i onmen al Sus ainabili y
Among he s udies, many examined social and physical changes expe ienced by ele-
wo ke s in con as o simila onsi e wo ke s. Ye , he e we e ew s udies ha discussed he
impac o decen alized wo k s uc u es on en i onmen al ou comes. This seems cong uen
wi h wo k on highe educa ion du ing he pandemic, ha indica ed en i onmen al sus-
ainabili y was dep io i ized in he place o con inui y o wo k and lea ning. In one s udy,
wo king om home was iden iﬁed as educing anspo cos s [
72
]. Howe e , in pandemic
s udies ha ea u e wo king om home, ea ing habi s we e seen o be heal hie [
73
], ye
i was no clea i ou -o -home ea ing changed. Highe consump ion o akeaway ood
om ca és and es au an s can ha e a con ibu o y e ec on landﬁll and single-use plas ic
consump ion, when con as ed o home-based meal p epa a ion.
In conside ing elec ici y consump ion, COVID-19 manda es ha e ec ed wo k om
home pa e ns saw inc eased powe consump ion a home by 13 pe cen [
74
]. I is howe e ,
unclea i he inc eased domes ic elec ici y consump ion ea u es a decline in o ﬁce and
wo k en i onmen le els by an equi alen le el (i.e., less o mo e o e all elec ici y con-
sump ion). The e is mo e esea ch needed wi h ela ion o he ela i e e ec s o social and
en i onmen al ou comes and di e ences in elewo k con ex s, including con olling o
pandemic-e ec s.
134

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