K a chenko, Ka e yna; G uchmann, Tim; I ano a, Ma ina; I ano , Dmi y
A icle
Responding o he ipple e ec om sys emic dis up ions:
Empi ical e idence om he semiconduc o sho age
du ing COVID-19
Mode n Supply Chain Resea ch and Applica ions
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Eme ald Publishing Limi ed
Sugges ed Ci a ion: K a chenko, Ka e yna; G uchmann, Tim; I ano a, Ma ina; I ano , Dmi y
(2024) : Responding o he ipple e ec om sys emic dis up ions: Empi ical e idence om he
semiconduc o sho age du ing COVID-19, Mode n Supply Chain Resea ch and Applica ions, ISSN
2631-3871, Eme ald, Bingley, Vol. 6, Iss. 4, pp. 354-375,
h ps://doi.o g/10.1108/MSCRA-03-2024-0011
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Responding o he ipple e ec
om sys emic dis up ions:
empi ical e idence om he
semiconduc o sho age du ing
COVID-19
Ka e yna K a chenko
Be lin School o Economics and Law, Be lin, Ge many
Tim G uchmann
Fachhochschule Wes kus e, Heide, Ge many
Ma ina I ano a
Ins i u e o Managemen and Fac o y Sys ems, Chemni z Uni e si y o Technology,
Chemni z, Ge many, and
Dmi y I ano
Be lin School o Economics and Law, Be lin, Ge many
Abs ac
Pu pose –The ipple e ec (i.e. dis up ion p opaga ion in ne wo ks) belongs o one o he cen al pilla s
in supply chain esilience and iabili y esea ch, cons i u ing a ype o sys emic dis up ion. A
conside able body o knowledge has been de eloped o he las wo decades o examine he ipple e ec
igge ed by ins an aneous dis up ions, e.g. ea hquakes o ac o y i es. In con as , a less esea ch has
been de o ed o s udy he ipple e ec unde long- e m dis up ions, such as in he wake o he COVID-19
pandemic.
Design/me hodology/app oach –This s udy quali a i ely analyses seconda y da a on he ipple e ec s
incu ed in au omo i e and elec onics supply chains. Th ough he analysis o i e dis inc case s udies
illus a ing ope a ional p ac ices used by companies o cope wi h he ipple e ec , we unco e a dis up ion
p opaga ion mechanism h ough he supply chains du ing he semiconduc o sho age in 2020–2022.
Findings –Applying a heo y elabo a ion app oach, we sequence he igge s o he ipple e ec s induced by
he semiconduc o sho age. Second, he measu es o mi iga e he ipple e ec employed by au omo i e and
elec onics companies a e delinea ed wi h a cos -e ec i eness analysis. Finally, he esul s a e summa ised and
gene alised in o a causal loop diag am p o iding a mo e comple e concep ualisa ion o long- e m dis up ion
p opaga ion.
O iginali y/ alue –The esul s add o he academic discou se on app op ia e mi iga ion s a egies. They can
help build scena ios o simula ion and analy ical models o in o m decision-making as well as inco po a e
sys emic isks om ipple e ec s in o a no mal ope a ions mode. In addi ion, he indings p o ide p ac ical
ecommenda ions o implemen ing sho - and long- e m measu es du ing long- e m dis up ions.
Keywo ds Supply chain esilience, Ripple e ec , Sys ems hinking, Sys emic isk, Semiconduc o sho age,
Case-s udy
Pape ype Case s udy
MSCRA
6,4
354
© Ka e yna K a chenko, Tim G uchmann, Ma ina I ano a and Dmi y I ano . Published in Mode n
Supply Chain Resea ch and Applica ions. Published by Eme ald Publishing Limi ed. This a icle is
published unde he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion (CC BY 4.0) licence. Anyone may ep oduce,
dis ibu e, ansla e and c ea e de i a i e wo ks o his a icle ( o bo h comme cial and non-comme cial
pu poses), subjec o ull a ibu ion o he o iginal publica ion and au ho s. The ull e ms o his licence
may be seen a h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licences/by/4.0/legalcode
The cu en issue and ull ex a chi e o his jou nal is a ailable on Eme ald Insigh a :
h ps://www.eme ald.com/insigh /2631-3871.h m
Recei ed 25 Ma ch 2024
Re ised 25 Ap il 2024
19 July 2024
Accep ed 22 July 2024
Mode n Supply Chain Resea ch
and Applica ions
Vol. 6 No. 4, 2024
pp. 354-375
Eme ald Publishing Limi ed
2631-3871
DOI 10.1108/MSCRA-03-2024-0011
1. In oduc ion
The ipple e ec (i.e. dis up ion p opaga ion in ne wo ks) has been a isible opic in supply
chain esilience and iabili y (I ano e al., 2014;Chowdhu y e al., 2020;Li e al., 2021;Sawik,
2022), cons i u ing a c i ical sys emic isk (Ghadge e al., 2013;Ga ey e al., 2015;Llaguno
e al., 2022;Alikhani e al., 2023). While a conside able body o knowledge has been de eloped
o he ipple e ec igge ed by ins an aneous dis up ions, e.g. ea hquakes o ac o y i es,
li le is known abou he ipple e ec unde long- e m dis up ions (Dolgui and I ano , 2021;
I ano and Dolgui, 2021;Sindhwani e al., 2023). This no el con ex o long- e m dis up ions
has appea ed in he wake o he COVID19 pandemic and ecei ed inc easing esea ch
a en ion (I ano , 2020;Singh e al., 2021;B usse - e al., 2022;Delasay e al., 2022).
Since 2020, companies wo ldwide ha e expe ienced signi ican sho ages in he supply o
semiconduc o s. Many coun ies wo ldwide imposed lockdowns o di e en ex en s o
p e en he apid sp ead o he co ona i us (Paul and Chowdhu y, 2021;Quei oz e al., 2022).
Lockdowns and high le els o sickness led o employee sho ages, leading o p oduc ion
dis up ions (Rozhko e al., 2022;Li e al., 2023). Fu he , bo lenecks a po s and shipping
delays con ibu ed o he sho age. Semiconduc o p oduce s had o ca y addi ional
shipping cos s since he con aine s we e s uck a po s o longe . Mo eo e , con aine
shipping cos s sky ocke ed (Ramani e al., 2022). Se e al o he dis up ions apa om he
pandemic in ensi ied he impac s o he ollowing ipple e ec s. “A cold wa e in Texas in
ea ly 2021 impac ed p oduc ion a he Samsung, In ineon Tech, and NXP semiconduc o
plan s. In addi ion, a i e a he Renesas Elec onics Co p acili y in Japan added o he
p oduc ion dis up ions ela ed o he p oduc ion o au omo i e chips”(Ramani e al., 2022).
Besides, he legally p o ec ed know-how in ol ed in semiconduc o p oduc ion con ibu ed
o he p opaga ion o he sho age. Facili ies mainly belong o US companies, while he US
go e nmen p ohibi ed he expo o manu ac u ing equipmen o se e al Chinese companies.
“In addi ion, he US go e nmen imposed sanc ions on Huawei Technologies and coo dina ed
wi h TSMC [Taiwan Semiconduc o Manu ac u ing Company] o p e en he sale o
semiconduc o chips o Huawei and ZTE. In an icipa ion o being pu on a US ade
blacklis , he i m began s ockpiling chips in 2019, con ibu ing o igh capaci y a Huawei’s
leading ound y supplie TSMC”(Ramani e al., 2022). As a esul , some clien s s a ed buying
mo e and hoa ding he componen s o ensu e hei a ailabili y, leading o supply chain
unce ain y (Bloombe g, 2022). The semiconduc o sho age acco dingly ep esen ed a unique
challenge o companies dealing wi h long- e m and o e lapping ipple e ec s esul ing om
supply chain complexi y, ulne abili y, and ola ili y.
This s udy aims o complemen and s eng hen he exis ing esea ch on he ipple e ec in
global supply chains, asking he ollowing esea ch ques ion:
RQ1. How can companies mi iga e he ipple e ec in hei supply chains esul ing om a
long- e m, sys emic dis up ion?
To answe he p oposed esea ch ques ion, we quali a i ely analysed seconda y da a on he
ipple e ec s incu ed by au omo i e and elec onics supply chains. A mul iple case s udy
app oach was used o s udy he complex s uc u es o he ipple e ec du ing COVID19,
d awing on mul iple sou ces o in o ma ion (Eisenha d and G aebne , 2007). The s udy
ocused on he empi ical analysis o i e published case s udies and iangula ed da a om
addi ional quali a i e sou ces, analysing ope a ional p ac ices used by companies wi h a
cos -e ec i eness analysis (CEA) (Tuominen e al., 2015). Applying heo y elabo a ion as
p oposed by Fishe and Aguinis (2017) in he second s ep, we sequence he igge s o he
ipple e ec and unco e he dis up ion p opaga ion mechanism du ing he semiconduc o
sho age in 2020–2022. In he las s ep, he measu es o mi iga e he ipple e ec employed by
he companies a e delinea ed h ough a sys ems hinking app oach, esul ing in a causal loop
Mode n Supply
Chain Resea ch
and Applica ions
355
diag am (CLD) (S e man, 2001). In his con ex , he CLD helps o gain sense o he beha iou
o a nonlinea sys em based on speci ic eedback s uc u es (Sedlacko e al., 2014).
Ou esul s show ha mos o he igge s o he sho age we e simila among he
manu ac u ing indus ies. Fo ins ance, a dec eased demand o ehicles a he beginning o
he COVID-19 pandemic o ced ca manu ac u e s o limi chip p ocu emen . In u n,
inc eased demand o consume elec onics led o inc eased o de s o chips om he indus y.
Semiconduc o manu ac u e s hence de o ed hei p oduc ion capaci ies o he elec onics
sec o . The esea ch demons a es ha bo h indus ies expe ienced common e ec s:
p oduc ion capaci y educ ion, ac o y shu downs, longe lead imes, educed ou pu s,
employee layo s, p oduc mix changes, inc eased cos s, p oduc una ailabili y, and deli e y
delays (MacCa hy and I ano , 2022). Among he iden i ied measu es, all case companies
deal wi h he ipple e ec s by including s ockpiling, p oduc ion capaci y es ic ion, p oduc
mix adjus men s, and p oduc ion o hei own chips. Speci ic mi iga ion s a egies we e
appliedonlyby heca make s,whichincluded pa ial p oduc ion, sales s a egy
mode nisa ion, and chip usage educ ion.
Ou s udy con ibu es o he domaino esilience and iabili y esea ch (I ano , 2020;Singh
e al., 2021;B usse e al., 2022;Delasay e al., 2022). We add o he academic discou se by
explaining how speci ic s a egies mi iga e he ipple e ec and syn hesise he empi ical
indings in o a CLD. The CLD pa icula ly can be used in u u e esea ch o building mo e
nuanced scena ios in simula ion and analy ical models on he ipple e ec and sys emic isks
unde long- e m dis up ions. Ou s udy p o ides manage ial insigh s o implemen ing sho -
andlong- e m measu es du ing long- e m dis up ions. The emainde o his pape is o ganised
as ollows: Sec ion 2 analyses li e a u e ela ed o he ipple e ec and he semiconduc o
sho age du ing COVID19. Sec ion 3 p esen s he esea ch me hodology. Sec ion 4 p esen s he
case s udy esul s. C oss-case analysis, heo y elabo a ion and building o he CLD ollow in
Sec ion 5.WeconcludeinSec ion 6 by discussing he main indings o ou esea ch.
2. Resea ch backg ound
The ipple e ec is one o he mos p ominen esea ch a enues in supply chain esilience. De ined
by I ano e al. (2014) as “ he impac o a dis up ion on supply chain pe o mance and dis up ion-
based scope o changes in he supply chain s uc u es and pa ame e s”and la e by Dolgui e al.
(2020) as “a downs eam p opaga ion o he downscaling in demand ul ilmen in he supply chain
as a esul o a se e e dis up ion,” esea ch on he ipple e ec has been g own conside ably as
documen ed in li e a u e e iews by Dolgui e al. (2020),Hosseini e al. (2019),I ano and Dolgui
(2021),andLlaguno e al. (2022). Resea ch published be o e he COVID19 pandemic has ocused
chie ly on he p opaga ion o a single dis up ion h ough some downs eam echelons (Li and
Zobel, 2020;Li e al., 2021;Hosseini and I ano , 2022). Valuable me hods o mi iga ing he ipple
e ec h ough backup sou cing, capaci y lexibili y, and in en o y op imisa ion ha e been
de eloped (I ano , 2022a,b;Pa k e al., 2022;Ald ighe i e al., 2023).
While many componen sho age mi iga ion s a egies exis in he li e a u e, mos
conside sho - e m solu ions (I ano , 2017;Pa lo e al., 2019;Lei e al., 2021). I is implied
ha he sho age is empo a y and can be eco e ed by some adjus men s o he company’s
sou cing s a egy, in en o y, o o de ing policy a e a dis up ion (I ano e al., 2019).
Componen sho ages be o e he semiconduc o c isis we e mainly caused by dis inc
dis up ions, such as an acciden a a ac o y o a machine b eakdown a one o he supplie s.
Such single dis up ions can indeed cause a ipple e ec ac oss he whole supply chain, bu
hei impac can be mi iga ed in he sho - e m (Hosseini e al., 2019;Dolgui e al., 2020).
Howe e , he semiconduc o sho age esul ed om he long- e m COVID19 pandemic. This
wo ldwide pandemic is a unique and sys emic dis up ion o he ollowing easons (I ano ,
2020;Paul and Chowdhu y, 2021;Ghadge e al., 2022;Pa lo e al., 2022;H€
agele e al., 2023):
MSCRA
6,4
356
(1) Long-las ing dis up ion wi h ha dly p edic able scaling and dynamics
(2) Simul aneous dis up ion in supply, demand, and logis ics in as uc u e
(3) Simul aneous dis up ion and epidemic sp ead
(4) Reco e y in he p esence o a dis up ion
The semiconduc o sho age du ing he pandemic ollows he abo e dis up ion speci ics
(Ramani e al., 2022). As he COVID19 pandemic s a ed and p opaga ed wo ldwide, he
au omo i e supply chain expe ienced many shocks. As a esul o a decline in demand and
limi ed p oduc ion capaci ies, he au omo i e indus y p ocu ed ewe semiconduc o s.
A he same ime, he demand o consume elec onics inc eased signi ican ly. People s a ed
wo king emo ely and spending mo e ime a home in gene al. The e o e, gadge s like
compu e sc eens, lap ops, headse s, and en e ainmen elec onics like gaming consoles we e
highly desi ed. This o ced semiconduc o p oduce s o alloca e hei al eady limi ed
capaci ies o his sec o . As he demand o ehicles s a ed eco e ing owa ds he end o
2020, ca manu ac u e s inc eased hei p oduc ion olumes. Thus, hey o de ed mo e
semiconduc o chips, leading o inc eased demand ha p opaga ed ups eam. Howe e ,
supplies could no mee he highe demand because o limi ed capaci ies. Semiconduc o s
we e una ailable in he amoun equi ed, which dis up ed supply o he au omo i e
indus y.
Du ing long- e m c ises, acco dingly, dis up ions a e no longe only occasional inciden s
bu ans o med in o long- e m e e yday challenges o ganiza ions ace, which o m a new
business-as-usual-mode, blu ing he lines be ween adi ional ope a ion’s mode sepa a ion
(I ano , 2024). Hence, mo e esea ch mus be de o ed o e ealing he ai s o co po a e
decisions, which ackling mul iple dimensions (see Figu e 1). The semiconduc o sho age
ep esen s unique challenges o manu ac u ing companies by causing a ipple e ec and
dis up ion cascading along he en i e alue chain when eco e y measu es should be aken in
he p esence o a dis up ion. Recen esea ch poses ha his no el con ex ex ends a adi ional
unde s anding o esilience owa d supply chain iabili y as an abili y o su i e in he
p esence o long- e m c ises and dis up ions compounding economic and socie al aspec s
(I ano and Dolgui, 2020;I ano , 2022c,2023;I ano and Keskin, 2023;I ano e al., 2023).
Rela ed mi iga ions s a egies emphasise aking adap i e measu es o ensu e he con inui y
and su i abili y o he supply chain o ace he newly eme ging con inuous base o
dis up ions, which is becoming an essen ial pa o he no mal ope a ions mode (I ano , 2024).
3. Resea ch design
This esea ch applies a mul iple-case s udy app oach sui able o (middle- ange) heo y
de elopmen and e inemen (Voss, 2010). Based on he empi ical e idence, he s udy
Risks om
ipple e ec s
Vola ili y and
p ocess
Global
s uc u e
Quan i y and
demand
A ailabili y
and supply
Sou ce(s): I ano e al. (2014)
Figu e 1.
Risks om ipple
e ec s
Mode n Supply
Chain Resea ch
and Applica ions
357
elabo a es on mi iga ion s a egies o ex end he unde s anding o how companies can cope
wi h he ipple e ec in hei supply chains esul ing om a long- e m, sys emic dis up ion.
Figu e 2 p o ides an o e iew o he esea ch design. The uni o analysis is he mi iga ion
p ac ice al eady ealised a he companies. The cases we e selec ed based on he heo e ical
sampling me hod p oposed by Eisenha d (1989), in ol ing 4 o 10 cases om mul iple
indus ies. Fu he mo e, quali y p ocedu es ega ding ex e nal alidi y, cons uc alidi y,
and eliabili y we e in place o ensu e me hodological igou (Yin, 2009)(Table 1).
3.1 Case selec ion and da a collec ion
Following he scope o he s udy, cases we e chosen om he popula ion o exis ing
companies a ec ed by he ipple e ec s o COVID19. The cases we e chosen om he
au omo i e and consume elec onics indus ies, as he pandemic signi ican ly a ec ed hose
indus ies. Secondly, he selec ed companies had o ep esen di e en egions o he wo ld o
conside i he loca ion impac ed any no iceable decisions unde aken. Fu he mo e, he
supply chains o he companies had o be global. Thi dly, he cases wi h di e en s a egies
applied we e chosen o ge a comp ehensi e o e iew o possible app oaches. Finally, since
he esea ch is based on seconda y da a, choosing case companies wi h su icien publicly
a ailable in o ma ion was essen ial. The s udy’s ocus on he au omo i e and consume
elec onics indus ies limi s applicabili y o he indings, acknowledging ha ex an
li e a u e al eady ackled o he indus ies such as he appa el and ex ile indus y (Poly iou
e al., 2023). Table 2 gi es an o e iew o he obse ed companies and ini ia i es and he
analysed da a sou ces.
This esea ch applies seconda y da a collec ion, which se es as a eliable sou ce o case
s udy esea ch and heo y de elopmen (Eisenha d and G aebne , 2007). Se e al ope a ions
and supply chain managemen s udies ha e al eady conduc ed case s udy esea ch on
seconda y da a sou ces as hey pa icula ly p o ide up- o-da e da a (e.g. Meie e al., 2023).
• Case selec ion
• Da a collec ion
Phase 1
• Quali a i e con en
analysis (coding)
•T iangula ionac oss
sou ces
Phase 2 • Mapping o causal
connec ions
•Men almodel
•CausalLoop
Diag am (CLD)
Phase 3
• Theo y elabo a ion
•S a egy
de elopmen
• Cos -e ec i eness
analysis
Phase 4
Sou ce(s): Figu e c ea ed by au ho s
C i e ia Realisa ion
In e nal alidi y Da a analysis was pe o med by wo esea che s
Ex e nal alidi y T iangula ion, compa isons ac oss mul iple sou ces
Cons uc alidi y Collec ing da a om mul iple sou ces
In e - a e eliabili y Exposing ele an pa allels ac oss mul iple sou ces
Sou ce(s): Yin (2009)
Figu e 2.
Resea ch design
Table 1.
Quali y p ocedu es
MSCRA
6,4
358
To achie e a high epu a ion and us wo hiness o he da a, we d aw on mul iple
au ho i a i e hi d-pa y sou ces, also o a oid esea che bias (Calan one and Vicke y, 2010).
The sou ces included public epo s and websi es, as well as p o essional newspape s and
magazines such as Reu e s, Fo bes, and o he jou nals. The iangula ion o mul iple da a
sou ces helped o achie e cons uc alidi y. Fo ins ance, in o ma ion on he ma ke sha e,
p oduc ion olumes, sales and e enue alues we e e ie ed om S a is a and compa ed
wi h he main sou ces o conclude o e all pe o mance. The hi d-pa y da a u he educed
o e - eliance on in e nal da a, inc easing eliabili y. The collec ed da a o each case we e
sa ed in sepa a e documen s o p epa e o he subsequen coding and analysis.
3.2 Da a analysis and heo y elabo a ion
To analyse he quali a i e da a, a quali a i e con en -analysis app oach was conduc ed in a
s uc u ed, abduc i e manne (Sch eie , 2012). A deduc i e ca ego y sys em de i ed om
he li e a u e was used i s o code he empi ical da a (see Figu e 1). Final codes we e buil
induc i ely when men ioned equen ly in he documen s based on he esea che ’s
in e p e a ion o he speci ic cons uc (see Figu e 3). This allowed o lexible coding and
clus e ing o he esul s. The codes on cos s and e enues we e pa icula ly aluable o
subsequen ly conduc he CEA (B yan e al., 2007). Following Fishe and Aguinis (2017),a
heo y-elabo a ion echnique o s uc u ing sequence ela ions was u he used o e ine
he eme ging cons uc s ega ding indus y con ex s and hei ela ionships wi h each
o he . In his app oach, heo y elabo a ion can be desc ibed as a p ocess o concep ualising
and execu ing empi ical esea ch using p e-exis ing concep ual models as a basis o
Cases Scope Sou ces
Tesla Tesla, Inc., is an au omo i e company ounded in 2003. I is
ocused on designing, de eloping, manu ac u ing, and
selling elec ic ehicles wi h sel -d i ing capabili y,
s a iona y, as well as sola ene gy gene a ion and s o age
sys ems
Media in e iews/p ess eleases,
i m websi e pages, li e a u e
Hyundai Hyundai Mo o s is a mul ina ional au omo i e
manu ac u e om Sou h Ko ea ounded in 1967. As an
au omo i e manu ac u e ope a ing in all segmen s,
Hyundai has mainly g own in he SUV, elec ic ehicle, and
luxu y segmen s in ecen yea s
Media in e iews/p ess eleases,
i m websi e pages, li e a u e
Fo d Fo d Mo o Company is an Ame ican mul ina ional
au omo i e company ounded in 1903 by Hen y Fo d. I
owns he Fo d and Lincoln ca b ands. Fo d, as well, is
ope a ing in all ca segmen s
Media in e iews/p ess eleases,
i m websi e pages, li e a u e
Sony Sony G oup Co po a ion is a Japanese mul ina ional
co po a ion ounded in 1946. I is one o he wo ld’s la ges
consume and p o essional elec onics manu ac u e s. I s
p oduc po olio includes a ious elec onic p oduc s such
as audio/ ideo equipmen , digi al came as, home
appliances, ideo games, and gaming consoles
Media in e iews/p ess eleases,
i m websi e pages, li e a u e
Apple Apple Inc. is an Ame ican mul ina ional ech company
ounded in 1976. Apple’s p oduc po olio includes
sma phones, able s, PCs, lap ops, and sma wa ches, as
well as ela ed so wa e, accesso ies, se ices, and
applica ions. I s supply chains a e conside ed a benchma k
among manu ac u ing companies
Media in e iews/p ess eleases,
i m websi e pages, li e a u e
Sou ce(s): Table c ea ed by au ho s
Table 2.
Case cha ac e is ics
Mode n Supply
Chain Resea ch
and Applica ions
359
de elop new heo e ical insigh s by s uc u ing heo e ical cons uc s and ela ions o
explain empi ical obse a ions (c . Fishe and Aguinis, 2017). Acco dingly, he obse ed
ipple e ec s we e sequenced o es ablish cause-e ec ela ionships. As a esul , he
p opaga ion o he ipple e ec h ough he supply chains could be demons a ed. Finally,
ipple e ec mi iga ion s a egies could be deduced as p ac ical guidelines o
manu ac u ing companies.
3.3 Sys ems hinking and causal loop diag am
Sys ems hinking and sys em dynamics (SD) modelling deals wi h he nonlinea beha iou
o complex sys ems o e ime (Mo ec o , 1992), aiming o unde s and how eedback
s uc u es de e mine a sys em’s beha iou (Coyle, 1996). Following Da is e al.(2007),SDis
also inc easingly used as a me hodology o heo y de elopmen . Pa icula ly o
longi udinal and nonlinea p ocesses, hey can help o build a mo e comp ehensi e and
p ecise heo y om so-called simple heo y (Da is e al., 2007). CLDs a e he mos impo an
quali a i e modelling me hod in sys ems hinking (Coyle, 1996;S e man, 2001). They
comp ise a se o nodes and edges, connec ed by a ows deno ing he causal in luences
among hem. To be e unde s and he p opaga ion o he ipple e ec , a sys ems hinking
app oach was applied o de e mine causal connec ions and es ablish cause-e ec
ela ionships be ween he a iables, ollowed by an a emp o lead back hese e ec s
di ec ly o he causes. In ou analysis, we sequenced he impac s o he ipple e ec
(i.e. demand a ia ions, labou sho ages, lockdowns, acili y shu downs, and ope a ing wi h
limi ed capaci ies), o cons uc he cause-e ec ela ionships. The eedback s uc u e was
inco po a ed by closing cycles be ween he single ac o ’s ac ions (i.e. au omake s could
inc ease hei p oduc ion le els and o de ed mo e semiconduc o s, a he same ime
supplie s could no sa is y he inc eased demand since o de s om o he indus ies o e ook
hei capaci ies). Such s uc u ed mapping inc emen ally added and connec ed he obse ed
a iables o he CLD.
Figu e 3.
Coding scheme om
he quali a i e con en
analysis
MSCRA
6,4
360
4. Wi hin-case analysis
4.1 Tesla
When he COVID-19 pandemic s a ed, he semiconduc o sho age caused ollou delays o
Tesla’s long-awai ed elec ic pickup and semi- aile ucks (Ashc o , 2022). The s a o
p oduc ion o bo h models was planned o 2021 bu was pos poned o 2022 and 2023,
espec i ely. Tesla had o empo a ily close one o i s plan s in Cali o nia a he beginning o
2021 because o componen sho ages. Howe e , in he second hal o 2020, Tesla’s o de s
eached he highes le el in he company’s his o y, inc easing by 45%. This numbe was
unde he 500.000-uni sales goal o he yea , e en hough he COVID-19 pandemic was a i s
peak (Cohen, 2021). As o 2021, Tesla epo ed ha deli e ies in 2021 inc eased by 87%
compa ed o 2020 (Ashc o , 2022). When looking a he es o he ca manu ac u e s, such
esul s we e su p ising, conside ing ha Tesla ca s usually equi e mo e chips han o he s.
Se e al ac o s enabled Tesla’s esilience du ing he dis up ion. Besides adi ional
s a egies, such as building sa e y s ock, Tesla ound c ea i e ways o app oach he p oblem.
Fi s ly, hey usually “p oduce i e a ions o ehicle models ha o en s e ch back o e
gene a ions”(Ashc o , 2022). Tesla is a mo e lexible company ha designs and builds
ehicles om sc a ch. The expe ise o in e nal so wa e enginee s helped o main ain
ope a ions and p oduc ion plans. Acco ding o he company’s CFO Zacha y Ki kho n: “ou
expe ise in he chip indus y and consis en messaging o supplie s has helped us manage
supply chain challenges”(Ashc o , 2022). He also claimed ha Tesla did no educe i s
p oduc ion o ecas s wi h supplie s. Ins ead, hey we e adding capaci y in he as es way
possible. CEO Elon Musk admi ed ha Tesla managed o al e he so wa e apidly o use
di e en ypes o chips o he ehicles. “We we e able o subs i u e al e na i e chips and hen
w i e he i mwa e in a ma e o weeks. I is no jus a ma e o swapping ou a chip; you also
ha e o ew i e he so wa e”(Hawkins, 2021). In some cases, a e ew i ing he so wa e, one
chip could pe o m dual unc ions.
As a esul , he numbe o semiconduc o s needed o ehicles was dec eased due o he
company’s s a egic use, leading o p oduc ion maximisa ion (Zimme man, 2022). Acco ding
o Elon Musk, he sho age “has se ed as a o cing unc ion o us o educe he numbe o
chips in he ca ”(Zimme man, 2022). Tesla’s semiconduc o supplie base comp ises 43
endo s, which p o ide a ound 1,600 unique silicon chips. Disco e ing al e na i e ways o
applying hem enabled cos educ ions, p oduc ion maximisa ion, and dec eased ailu e
poin s. Secondly, he company’s managemen ealised a need o dec ease dependence on
Asian semiconduc o endo s e en be o e he pandemic. The e o e, i was decided o pu
e o in o p oducing i s chips in-house. Addi ionally, Tesla decided o use a new ma e ial
echnology–silicon ca bide (SiC) ins ead o commonly used pu e silicon. “The unique
p ope ies o silicon-ca bide make i much mo e ene gy e icien and du able ela i e o
adi ional silicon wa e s. Due o hei imp o ed he mal conduc i i y, SiCs educe ene gy
loss by as much as 50%”(Cohen, 2021). By p oducing i s own semiconduc o ma e ials
du ing he pandemic, Tesla has made i s supply chain mo e esilien and a oided “a sho -
e m c isis”(Cohen, 2021).
4.2 Hyundai
Despi e he semiconduc o sho age impac ing au omo i e supply chains wo ldwide,
Hyundai main ained cons an p oduc ion le els. Fo ins ance, Hyundai Mo o India was
ahead o i s p ima y compe i o s in he coun y, Ma u i Suzuki and Mahind a & Mahind a.
They bo h we e o ced o cu down p oduc ion because o chip sho ages. On he con a y,
Hyundai handled he c isis by al e ing he p oduc mix and alloca ing a ailable componen s
o p oduce high-demand models. “The semiconduc o supply issue is common o all OEMs,
and e e yone is unde he same challenging condi ions. Bu he esul s a e o ally di e en
Mode n Supply
Chain Resea ch
and Applica ions
361
du ing long- e m dis up ions and iden i y which measu es we e implemen ed by each
company o mi iga e he ipple e ec . Da a om mul iple sou ces, such as company websi es,
websi es o supply chain consul ing agencies, and a icles om business magazines, we e
me ged o ge a comple e o e iew o each company’s ac ions in 2020–2022. The indings
pa icula ly con ibu e o he g owing academic discou se on app op ia e mi iga ion
s a egies. While Poly iou e al. (2023) ound supplie concen a ion and ca ie
di e si ica ion as po en ial measu es o mi iga e he ipple impac o supply dis up ions
du ing COVID19 in he appa el and ex ile indus y, he p esen esul s pa icula ly o e o
in es men in enginee ing change ac i i ies, sales mode nisa ion, as well as in es men s in o
he lexibiliza ion o p oduc ion acili ies.
6.1 Theo e ical implica ions
Li e a u e on he ipple e ec mi iga ion is ela i ely nascen , ha ing i s oo s in he seminal
wo k by I ano e al. (2014). While he e a e al eady s udies p o iding speci ic insigh s in o
he ipple e ec o COVID19 in single indus ies, i.e. in he medical indus y in Tu key (Yilmaz
e al., 2023), he p esen s udy complemen s exis ing esea ch by s udying he semiconduc o
sho age in he au omo i e and elec onics indus y. In his ein, i can be indeed concluded
ha he semiconduc o sho age is no a egula dis up ion bu a sys ema ic one. Fo he
speci ic con ex o he au omo i e indus y, he s udy d aws pa allels o o he speci ic ypes
o sho - e m ipple e ec s, such as he ho izon al bullwhip e ec (c . G uchmann and
Neuki chen, 2019), showing ha demand a ia ions a e no jus p esen be ween i s - ie
supplie s wi hin one indus y bu also be ween wo o mo e indus ies. Thus, he esea ch
adds o he academic discou se by desc ibing he mechanism o sys emic dis up ions h ough
a CLD and explaining how ce ain s a egies mi iga e he ela ed ipple e ec s o in e wined
supply ne wo ks (I ano , 2024).
Fu u e esea ch may pa icula ly use he p oposed CLD and obse ed mi iga ion
s a egies o building mo e nuanced scena ios in simula ions and analy ical models on he
ipple e ec s udying sys emic isks unde long- e m dis up ions. While we obse ed
di e ences be ween he au omo i e and cus ome elec onics case companies (e.g. a
p io i ised access o componen supplie s o he elec onics cases), he simula ions may
p o ide u he insigh s in o p oac i ely managing ipple e ec s. While he obse ed
mi iga ion p ac ices inco po a e he ( adi ional) esilience p ac ices, such as supply chain
Measu es Cos implica ions E ec i eness Cases
P oduc ion cu downs Cu ing a iable cos s, bu
dec eased sales
Sho - e m Tesla, Fo d, Sony,
Apple
P io i ising p oduc ion wi h
highe ma gins
Inc eased e enues Sho - e m Hyundai
Pa ial p oduc ion Cu ing a iable cos s, bu
dec eased sales
Sho - e m Fo d
Enginee ing changes In es men in e-enginee ing
ac i i ies
Mid- o long-
e m
Tesla
Supplie nego ia ions Inc eased componen cos s Sho - e m Sony, Apple
S ock pilling Inc eased s ocking- and shipping
cos s
Sho - e m Tesla, Fo d, Sony
Sales mode nisa ion Inc eased e enues Mid- e m Fo d
In es men in addi ion
componen supply
Rema kable in es men s in o new
p oduc ion acili ies
Long- e m Tesla, Hyundai,
Sony, Apple
Sou ce(s): Table c ea ed by au ho s
Table 4.
Cos -e ec i eness
analysis
MSCRA
6,4
368
lexibili y ha a ises om p oduc subs i u ion, lexible con ac ing, supplie swi ching,
po olio di e si ica ion, and dynamic p icing p ac ices (Balak ishnan and Ramana han,
2021), some pa icula ly go beyond eac i e esilience owa ds supply chain iabili y. Fi s ,
long- e m dis up ions lead o he long- e m adap a ion o supply chain s uc u es (supply
chain s a egy le el, i.e. closing ac o ies) ha may las a e he end o he dis up ion. Second,
he equi ed adap ions a ec ed no jus ope a ions bu also ma ke ing (i.e. p oduc mix, sales
s a egy) o sus ainabili y s a egies (He and Ha is, 2020). Thi d, enginee ing change
managemen p ac ices a e coming o he o e in he con ex o long- e m dis up ions
(Gollmann e al., 2023).
6.2 Manage ial implica ions
Implica ions o he semiconduc o indus y: Ou analysis showed ha companies in bo h
indus ies applied s ockpiling, which implies accumula ing mo e ex ensi e semiconduc o
s ocks o ensu e he u u e a ailabili y o componen s. Some companies ied o place o de s
well in ad ance (e.g. Sony), while o he s es ablished close communica ion wi h c i ical
supplie s and nego ia ed p io i isa ion o hei o de s (e.g. Apple). Fo ins ance, Apple
decided o p ocu e a sha e o semiconduc o s om a u u e plan in A izona. Howe e , poo
supply chain isibili y was men ioned as one o he con ibu o s o he ad e se e ec s
companies expe ience due o semiconduc o sho age. Acco dingly, one o he objec i es is o
inc ease supply chain isibili y and imp o e o ecas ing and p ocu emen decisions (I ano
e al., 2021). In his ein, companies may make use o digi al echnologies. Adop ing digi al
win echnologies (DTT), o ins ance, enhances esilience by p o iding eal- ime isibili y,
acili a ing quick decision-making, and enabling immedia e ac ions o esponses o
dis up ions in he supply chain. Mo eo e , isibili y can be achie ed om enhanced
moni o ing using DTT (Bu gos and I ano , 2021).
Implica ions o he semiconduc o indus y: Speci ically in he au omo i e indus y,
pa ial assembly is a widely implemen ed s a egy du ing COVID19. Semiconduc o sca ci y
has made building pa ks o un inished ehicles wai o he a ailabili y o componen s (e.g.
FORD). Such an app oach is likely no applicable o consume elec onics since elec onic
de ices a e highly in eg a ed wi h chips. Thei ins alla ion is embedded in o he p oduc ion
p ocess, which does no allow adding hem la e o mos p oduc s. Some companies, such as
Fo d, decided o mode nise sales s a egy by sac i icing he numbe o ca s a ailable a
deale ships and using a build- o-o de p oduc ion app oach. This gi es a be e o e iew o
o de s and acili a es in en o y managemen . Such a s a egy can be applied in he
au omo i e indus y. To educe he numbe o chips equi ed o a ehicle, Tesla de eloped a
unique solu ion o ew i e he so wa e o se e al semiconduc o ypes (Ashc o , 2022). Such
an app oach, howe e , equi es high echnological enginee expe ise, which is only a ailable
o some companies. No ably, au omo i e i ms alloca ed a ailable componen s o he mos
demanded and p o i able models. The same end could be obse ed in consume elec onics,
whe e i ms hal ed p oduc ion o speci ic models empo a ily o e en pe manen ly.
Implica ions o digi al ans o ma ion: One majo elemen dec easing ipple e ec du ing
long- e m dis up ions is he applica ion o digi al echnologies (Balak ishnan and
Ramana han, 2021;I ano and Dolgui, 2021). Digi al echnologies in supply chain
managemen can be conside ed dis up i e echnologies ha in luence mode n SC
managemen (I ano e al., 2019). They signi ican ly suppo iabili y as inc easing
complexi y and s uc u al a ie y in supply ne wo ks equi e da a a ailabili y and capable
da a p ocessing echnology (Balak ishnan and Ramana han, 2021). To mi iga e long- e m
ipple e ec s, blockchain echnology is p omising (G uchmann e al., 2023), acknowledging
ha blockchain ini ia i es a e o en on a pilo s age (Gong e al., 2022). In his ein, blockchain
echnology pa icula ly enhances collabo a ion p ac ices by suppo ing he sha ing o
Mode n Supply
Chain Resea ch
and Applica ions
369
in o ma ion be ween wo o mo e pa ies in a anspa en way and eco ding he da a among
he single supply chain membe s (Balak ishnan and Ramana han, 2021;Gong e al., 2022;
G uchmann e al., 2023).
6.3 Limi a ions
The usage o only seconda y sou ces is a limi a ion o he s udy. Only publicly a ailable
in o ma ion could be used o iden i y measu es ha companies ook o deal wi h he
semiconduc o sho age. Companies may no communica e sensi i e in o ma ion abou hei
ope a ions. Acco dingly, u u e esea ch may collec p ima y da a h ough in e iews and
su eys o blend wi h he p esen indings. Addi ionally, he s udy is ocused o he
au omo i e and consume elec onics indus ies ep esen ing a bounda y condi ion o
ans e abili y o he esul s. Expe ience in o he manu ac u ing indus ies, such as he LED
ligh ning o powe u bines/sola indus ies, migh lead o de eloping addi ional ipple e ec
mi iga ion s a egies applicable mo e gene ally. Finally, only he p ac ices o manu ac u ing
companies we e conside ed in he s udy. The semiconduc o sho age is c i ical, and o he
s akeholde s may con ibu e o i s solu ion. Fo ins ance, go e nmen s o di e en coun ies
ealise he impo ance o chip a ailabili y and in es in new p oduc ion acili ies. Thei
ac ions mus also be conside ed in he decision-making p ocess by he supply chain
manage s. Fu u e esea ch may ackle hese limi a ions, o ins ance, by in es iga ing he use
o supply chain digi alisa ion o ad anced mi iga ion s a egies. Fu u e esea ch can ocus
on de e mining how digi al ans o ma ion can suppo companies and hei supply chains in
case o sys emic dis up ion.
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Co esponding au ho
Tim G uchmann can be con ac ed a : [email p o ec ed]
Fo ins uc ions on how o o de ep in s o his a icle, please isi ou websi e:
www.eme aldg ouppublishing.com/licensing/ ep in s.h m
O con ac us o u he de ails: [email p o ec ed]
Mode n Supply
Chain Resea ch
and Applica ions
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