The technologies of the future in the field of fertilisers and Romania's opportunities to recover this industry

Moisoiu, Cristian; Ciupagea, Constantin; Oprea, Stefan-Radu; Pircalabescu, Razvan Article The technologies of the future in the field of fertilisers and Romania's opportunities to recover this industry Amfiteatru Economic Provided in Cooperation with: The Bucharest University of Economic Studies Suggested Citation: Moisoiu, Cristian; Ciupagea, Constantin; Oprea, Stefan-Radu; Pircalabescu, Razvan (2025) : The technologies of the future in the field of fertilisers and Romania's opportunities to recover this industry, Amfiteatru Economic, ISSN 2247-9104, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Vol. 27, Iss. 69, pp. 688-702, https://doi.org/10.24818/EA/2025/69/688 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/319832 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. 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If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ AE The Technologies of the Future in the Field of Fertilisers and Romania’s Opportunities to Recover this Industry 688 Amfiteatru Economic THE TECHNOLOGIES OF THE FUTURE IN THE FIELD OF FERTILISERS AND ROMANIA’S OPPORTUNITIES TO RECOVER THIS INDUSTRY Cristian Moisoiu1 * , Constantin Ciupagea2, Ștefan-Radu Oprea3 and Răzvan Pîrcălăbescu4 1)2) Institutul de Economie Mondială, București, România 3) Cancelaria Prim-Ministrului, Guvernul României 4) Academia de Studii Economice, București, România Please cite this article as: Moisoiu, C., Ciupagea, C., Oprea, S.R., and Pîrcălăbescu, R., 2025. The Technologies of the Future in the Field of Fertilisers and Romania’s Opportunities to Recover this Industry. Amfiteatru Economic, 27(69), pp. 688-706. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24818/EA/2025/69/688 Article History Primit: 25 November 2024 Revizuit: 20 December 2024 Acceptat: 2 February 2025 Abstract The fertiliser industry in the European Union is undergoing structural transformations imposed by EU commitments to become carbon neutral by 2050. In terms of the existing possibilities, the industry is in the attention of decision-makers and investors, with various business models being analysed that enable technologies of the fourth industrial revolution that will improve the efficiency of manufacturing of fertilisers necessary for sustainable agriculture, with the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions. The present paper aims to analyse the evolution of the fertiliser industry in Romania, in terms of international competitiveness and economic performance of companies, as well as to evaluate the existing possibilities for modernising and recovering the industry. These analyses and evaluations can provide a basis for formulating recommendations to decision-makers in reindustrialisation policies, taking into account new technologies that can capitalise on the resources and opportunities of the regional market, while maintaining or intensifying the policies undertaken to decarbonise the energy-intensive industries. Keywords: industrial policies, foreign trade, international competitiveness, fertilisers industry, green technologies, green transition, green and blue ammonia JEL Classification: L52, L65, L81, O33, Q58 * Corresponding author, Cristian Marius Moisoiu – email: [email protected]. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © 2025 The Author(s). Amfiteatru Economic recommends AE Vol. 27 • No. 69 • May 2025 689 Introduction The fertiliser industry is one of the heavy industries of strategic importance for Romania. Given the size of the agricultural sector and the areas dedicated to agricultural crops, Romania is one of the main consumers of fertilisers for agriculture in the EU. Against the backdrop of structural transformations taking place in the economy and the EU’s commitments to become carbon neutral by 2050, the fertiliser industry needs a significant boost for retrofitting and modernisation. At the beginning of the 1990s, Romania had 11 chemical plants that produced raw materials for fertilisers and nitrogen fertilisers. Currently, only three of them are still functional, but they also operate at a very low capacity and with temporary interruptions of production, due to unfavourable market factors. In recent years, the increase in energy prices, especially natural gas, which is the main raw material used in the technological process, in conjunction with the tightening of environmental restrictions, has led to an increase in the cost of production to an uncompetitive level. Although Romania has a demand of raw materials and fertilisers of about 1.5 million tons annually, currently, it covers most of the demand by imports. In terms of drivers of change, the technological progress and the shaping of the fourth industrial revolution (IR4.0), in a fiercely competitive environment worldwide (Jora et al., 2025), are the premises for the relaunch of the chemical industry, including fertilisers manufacturing, bringing advanced, physical and digital technologies (Van Thienen, 2016). Solutions for the decarbonisation of the chemical industry bring new manufacturing and business models, which involve the adoption of green technologies. One such solution is blue ammonia, using natural gas to obtain ammonia, while capturing and storing carbon dioxide from manufacturing processes. Companies that pursue such investments also come up with models for optimising production through technologies of the fourth industrial revolution. The present paper aims to analyse the evolution of the fertiliser sector in Romania, in terms of economic performance at the level of companies in the sector and in the context of international competitiveness, as well as to evaluate the existing possibilities for the recovery of the fertiliser manufacturing through refurbishment and implementation of new business models. These analyses and evaluations can provide a basis for making recommendations to decision-makers in reindustrialisation policies, taking into account new technologies that can capitalise on existing resources and regional market opportunities, while maintaining or intensifying the policies committed to decarbonising the energy-intensive industries. For the authors, the topic is also interesting in terms of direct professional commitments to the elaboration and implementation of Romania’s industrial policies. 1. The fertiliser industry and the fourth industrial revolution in the literature Industry 4.0 combines interconnected technologies such as the Internet of Things, Big Data, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Advanced Materials and Additive Manufacturing, etc. With technological progress, the interest of academia and companies to identify possible capitalisations of those technologies in manufactures has also increased. Companies in the manufacture sectors have realised that automation solutions by moving towards the Internet of Things and digitalisation can bring significant improvements in the efficiency of the processes. One can improve the productivity of chemical plants by various smart techniques: AE The Technologies of the Future in the Field of Fertilisers and Romania’s Opportunities to Recover this Industry 690 Amfiteatru Economic predictive asset management, process control, manufacture simulation, etc. The new technologies can be integrated into the core conversion processes of chemical plants, marketing, and the activation of smart supply chains, as well as to set up new business models (Van Thienen, 2016). In any case, studies on the applications of Industry 4.0 technologies in the fertiliser industry in each country are just at the beginning (Shabur, 2024). Due to the nature of manufacturing processes, which imply basic chemical reactions, the fertiliser industry is not among the first industries to be impacted by technological advances. Studies on the applications of Industry 4.0 in chemical fertilisers have evolved mainly in the direction of streamlining agricultural processes, which leads to limiting soil pollution with nitrates, in accordance with sustainable objectives (Subei, 2023), at the same time as an improvement in plant yield. Nanotechnologies have the potential to improve fertilisation formulas (DeRosa, 2010). The green and digital transition creates the opportunity for companies to evolve in both directions. The refurbishment of old chemical plants or the development of new factories for ammonia go together with new digital solutions to streamline the production process and its conversion into physical products. Environmental pressures and climate policies have led companies to adopt sustainable manufacturing processes. In that sense, new chemical plants consume a third less energy per ton of ammonia than older plants. Innovations in advanced catalytic processes, which facilitate the chemical reactions required to obtain ammonia, have led to an 85% reduction in nitrogen oxide emissions in the manufacturing process (International Finance Corporation, 2023). Table no. 1. IR4.0 and green technologies available for the fertiliser industry IR4.0 Technologies Positive outcomes  Internet of Things  Sensors and connected devices for real-time monitoring of temperature, pressure, and chemical concentrations  Predictive management of chemical reactions  Big data analysis  Process optimisation,  Reduction of energy consumption  Artificial intelligence  Algorithms predict equipment wear, optimise supply chains, and improve process control  Minimisation of interruptions,  Program optimisation,  Advanced process control  Use of real-time data to adjust parameters in the technological process  Improving the stability and efficiency of production processes, reducing residual losses  Automation and robots  Reducing labour costs,  Minimising human error,  Improving safety  Energy Management Systems  Reducing energy costs and carbon emissions Green technologies Positive outcomes  NH3 blue = natural gas + CCS  Reducing carbon emissions  Green NH3 = hydrolysis + green energy + nitrogen obtained by air separation +  H2 + N2  Net-zero emissions Source: prepared by the authors. Amfiteatru Economic recommends AE Vol. 27 • No. 69 • May 2025 691 2. Ammonia in a global and regional context The global demand for fertilisers will continue to grow due to the increase in population and implicitly for the demand in agriculture. Also, ammonia, a raw material for nitrogen fertilisers (urea and nitrates), can be used as a sustainable fuel especially in maritime transport, but also as a transport vehicle for hydrogen, which will play a significant role in the green transition in transport. As a result, ammonia plays a key role in the global economy. The European Union has set itself the goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050. As an intermediate step, the European Commission agreed on a package of measures in 2021 (Fitfor55) to reduce carbon emissions by 55% by 2030, compared to 1990 levels (European Commission, 2021). Pressures to reduce carbon dioxide emissions will increase internationally, so incentives and support policies from states are rising. Hydrogen and ammonia will be of particular relevance for achieving the 2030 and 2050 targets. Ammonia (NH3) is a gaseous chemical compound that can be obtained either from natural gas through conventional methods (“grey ammonia”), or by using hydrogen resulting from the process of electrolysis in combination at high temperatures with nitrogen obtained from air, using an air separation unit (“green ammonia”). “Blue hydrogen” is the hydrogen obtained from the electrolysis by using electricity from conventional sources, together with the storage of carbon emissions. “Green hydrogen” is the one obtained by using renewable energy in the electrolysis process. “Blue ammonia” results from natural gas through the conventional method and the capture and storage of carbon emissions. As subjects of the EU-ETS trading system, the producers in the chemical industry will have to purchase emission allowances and bear the cost of carbon as soon as the free allocation of permits drops. As an exception, producers of ammonia and blue hydrogen will not have to bear the cost of pollution if they meet European standards for storing carbon dioxide emissions (European Commission, 2023). With the rising price of carbon, the production of fertilisers by conventional methods becomes uncompetitive as compared to countries that have not committed to equally restrictive environmental policies. Lately, the crisis of energy prices on regional markets has generated major fluctuations in the price of fertilisers. Even after the gas price stabilised after the peaks of 2022, it is still too high for domestic producers to be able to produce fertilisers at a competitive price level. Additionally, with the imposition of economic sanctions against Russia as a result of its aggression against Ukraine, the volume of EU natural gas imports from Russia decreased by 59% (volumes imported in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter of 2021) (Eurostat, 2024). At the same time, although the import volumes of fertilisers from Russia decreased by 52% compared to the volume in 2021, there is a suspicion that part of the volumes imported by the EU from other countries contain intermediary goods (ammonia) from Russia. The Russian Federation can export chemicals at a much lower price than regional competitors due to the cheap gas and the surplus of domestic production it achieves following the decline in natural gas exports. If we refer to the construction of new plants for the production of green ammonia, this has great potential globally, but it is not yet economically feasible, the investment costs being too high to be able to offer a competitive price. AE The Technologies of the Future in the Field of Fertilisers and Romania’s Opportunities to Recover this Industry 692 Amfiteatru Economic Therefore, blue ammonia is considered a transitional solution in the next 20-30 years, with a lower carbon footprint than grey ammonia, until green ammonia becomes economically feasible. This approach allows for the continued use of existing ammonia production infrastructure, requiring investment only in carbon capture and storage solutions in technical or natural reservoirs. Because there are too many conventional ammonia plants, there is an opportunity to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from these plants either by capturing and storing the carbon dioxide resulting from the production process or by developing adjacent green ammonia plants. Global ammonia production capacity is expected to expand from 240 million metric tons in 2022 to 290 million metric tons by 2030. There are plans to build about 107 new ammonia plants, located mainly in Asia and the Middle East, which are expected to enter production by 2030. The global blue ammonia market is projected to grow from $78 billion in 2023 to $17.9 billion in 2030. The global green ammonia market is expected to grow from USD 40 million in 2023 to USD 4.7 billion in 2030 (Statista, 2024). Green ammonia is currently 1.5 times more expensive than ammonia produced from natural gas, but as green energy becomes cheaper, green ammonia production will overtake that of grey ammonia. This is expected to happen by 2040 (Subei, 2023). The regions targeted by investments in blue ammonia are those that have significant gas reserves, such as the Middle East, North America, and Russia (Tanzeem, 2023). The regions targeted by investments in green ammonia are those that have cheap renewable energy, such as Australia, South America, the Middle East, and Northern Europe. Investment projects for nitrogen-based fertilisers are also concentrated in Russia, North America, Asia, the Middle East, the presence in Europe being almost non-existent (Urea Know How, 2024). 3. Methodology In the present paper, we used data from official national and international sources in order to perform the quantitative analysis. The data were extracted both at the level of the NACE code Rev.2 2015 branch – Manufacture of fertilisers and nitrogen products – and at the level of representative companies in this branch of activity (companies that accumulated over 98% of the total turnover of the branch in the period 2000-2023 were selected). The main sources of the data are: - National Institute for Statistics (TEMPO Database, annual, monthly statistics), - Top Companies Romania, published on the topfirme.com website, which centralises public data and taken from the website of the Ministry of Finance and other public government sources, - Eurostat. Based on the time series, we generated some graphs regarding the main economic and financial indicators of the industrial branch and we performed an econometric analysis toexemplify the recent developments in the case of a flagship company for the Romanian nitrogen fertiliser industry, namely Azomureș S.A. The econometric analysis consisted of two stages: - Verification of the stationarity of the time series used in the econometric analysis, - Linear regression with the error correction mechanism attached. Amfiteatru Economic recommends AE Vol. 27 • No. 69 • May 2025 693 In verifying the stationarity of the time series, the Integrated Durbin-Watson (IDW) test was used (Charemza, 1997), which in cases with statistically consistent results is simpler to apply than complex tests with equal margins of error, such as Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF). The linear regression used was performed on stationary time series by deriving the initial series, which were economic indicators in current prices, time series that are usually integral at level 1 (in other words, they become stationary by compiling the logarithm/derivation). In order to avoid the possible error arising from the autocorrelation between the tested economic variables, regression was used, in which an error correction mechanism was introduced among the independent variables, i.e., an error compensation term calculated on the basis of linear regression between the level 1 integral variables (not yet unconditional). In a separate section, we performed a qualitative analysis, using the SWOT model, targeting the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the fertiliser industry. 4. The current state of the fertiliser industry in Romania In the fertiliser sector in Romania, three large chemical plants are still operational: Azomureș, CICH Năvodari, and Nitramonia BC Slobozia (formerly Amonil, then ChemGas Holding Corporation S.R.L.). Two others could still be functional: Donau Chem Turnu Măgurele and Ga Pro Co Săvinești (formerly Azochim), which are in liquidation following bankruptcy. In addition to these, several dozen SMEs also operate at national level. Romania has a chemical fertiliser demand of about 1.5 million tons annually, of which about 450-500 thousand tons of nitrogen-based fertilisers for agriculture (the sixth consumer in the EU, 5.2% of the total consumption in the EU) and 80-100 thousand tons of phosphorus-based fertilisers (Eurostat, 2024). Currently, all functional Romanian chemical plants either have closed or are operating at low capacity or with temporary interruptions. Azomureș is the main producer of fertilisers for agriculture and raw materials for fertilisers, with an annual capacity of 1.8 million tons. The company temporarily seized the production during 2023-2024, due to the price of gas in conjunction with the decrease in fertiliser prices (Economica, 2024). The Chemical Fertilizer Plant S.R.L. Năvodari (CICH) produces nitrogen-based fertilisers, phosphorus-based fertilisers, professional biostimulants (the only producer in the country on this type of products), with a theoretical capacity of 1,400 tons/day. Three former plants of the former Interagro group, in bankruptcy, were taken over by Pambac S.A. Bacău: Amurco Bacău, Nitroporos Făgăraș, and Nitramonia BC S.R.L. Two other plants part of the Interagro Group are in liquidation following bankruptcy and are in the process of being sold through direct negotiation: Donau Chem Turnu Măgurele and Ga Pro Co Chemicals Săvinești. Another plant part of the Interagro Group is in insolvency, namely Viromet S.A. Victoria. The chemical fertiliser sector achieved a turnover of RON 2.62 billion in 2022, a decrease of 18% compared to the previous year, amid the decrease in domestic production as a result of natural gas prices (Figure 1). AE The Technologies of the Future in the Field of Fertilisers and Romania’s Opportunities to Recover this Industry 694 Amfiteatru Economic Figure no. 1. Turnover of the nitrogen fertilisers sector, 2012-2022, million lei Source: processed by the authors with data from INS (2024). Since 2015, Romania has experienced a steady decrease in the domestic production of chemical fertilisers, so that the volume of imports has increased rapidly, with an annual pace of over 15% (INS, 2023). The evolution of employees in the sector, from over 6,500 employees in 2012 to 1550 in 2022, also reflects the losses of competitiveness (INS, 2024). The main factors that influenced the decrease in the competitiveness of this industrial branch both in Romania and in the European Union were the unfavourable evolution of the price of natural gas for non-household consumers, as well as the increase in real terms of the average salary on the NACE code 2015 branch. The gross salary in the chemical industry exceeded the average salary in the Romanian industry, and, in certain years, its increase was above the increases in the prices of industrial production. 4.1. Foreign trade analysis In 2023, Romania produced only 95 thousand tons of nitrogen-based fertilisers, 90% less than in 2021, but 18% above the 2022 level (Economica, 2024). Therefore, the domestic demand is covered by imports. In 2023, Romania imported a volume of 1.6 million tons of nitrogen fertilisers, respectively 0.77 million tons of raw materials for fertilisers. Exports of nitrogen fertilisers amounted to 236 thousand tons and raw materials for fertilisers amounting to 95 thousand tons. Therefore, the trade deficit in the category of chemical fertiliser products was EUR 884 million in value. The record was reached in 2022, when imports valued EUR 1.96 billion, amid the escalation of prices on the global market as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, thus generating a trade deficit of EUR 1.74 billion (5% of the total trade deficit of the country) (INS, 2023) (Figure 2). 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 million RON Amfiteatru Economic recommends AE Vol. 27 • No. 69 • May 2025 695 Figure no. 2. Evolution of Romania’s foreign trade in chemical fertilisers, 2012-2023, million euros Source: ARICE (2024). The main countries of origin of imports of nitrogen fertilisers were in 2023, Bulgaria (20.9%), Egypt (16.8%), Turkmenistan (10.6%), Hungary (7%), Azerbaijan (5.8%), and Russia (4.7%). Regarding chemical raw materials for fertilisers, the main countries of origin of imports were Greece (16.5%), Russia (14%), Bulgaria (13.6%), Morocco (12.1%), and Austria (11.6%). The negative evolution of domestic production in the last 10 years has reflected in a downward trend in the export rate (Figure 3). Figure no. 3. Ratio of exports to turnover in the chemical fertilisers sector, 2012-2022 Source: developed by the authors, based on data from INS (2024) and ARICE (2024). 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 million EUR Export value (FOB) Import value (CIF) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 AE The Technologies of the Future in the Field of Fertilisers and Romania’s Opportunities to Recover this Industry 702 Amfiteatru Economic Economica, 2024. Cum se reflectă sincopele de producție de la Azomureș în importurile de îngrășăminte pentru agricultură. [online] Available at: https://www.economica.net/ aingrasaminte-pentru-agricultura-cum-se-reflecta-sincopele-de-productie-de-laazomures-in-importuri_771375.html. European Commission, 2021. Fitfor55. Brussels: European Commission. European Commission, 2023. Directive (EU) 2023/959 of the European Parliament and of the Council amending Directive 2003/87/EC establishing a system for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Union and Decision (EU) 2015/1814. Luxembourg: Official Journal of the European Union. Eurostat, 2024. Agri-environmental indicator - mineral fertilizers consumption. [online] Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Agrienvironmental_indicator_-_mineral_fertiliser_consumption#Analysis_at_country_level. Eurostat, 2024. EU trade with Russia - latest developments. [online] Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statisticsexplained/index.php?title=EU_trade_with_Russia__latest_developments#Latest_developments. 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Annex Summary – Testing the Gross Profit error correction mechanism Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.316863206 R Square 0.100402291 Adjusted R Square 0.01044252 Standard Error 0.428100926 Observations 23 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 2 0.409088822 0.204544411 1.11608 0.34712301 Residual 20 3.665408062 0.183270403 Total 22 4.074496884 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 1.075868499 0.246640665 4.362088859 0.000302 0.56138509 1.590351911 0.561385 1.590352 Salariu brut anual CAEN20 (RON) cst 2021 -0.54876415 0.452114916 -1.213771391 0.238975 -1.49185934 0.394331038 -1.49186 0.394331 Pret gaze intern cu taxe cst 2021 (t-1) 0.00086256 0.217511338 0.003965587 0.996875 -0.45285814 0.454583261 -0.45286 0.454583 Summary – Testing of the turnover error correction mechanism Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.61343065 R Square 0.37629716 Adjusted R Square 0.31392688 Standard Error 0.17667894 Observations 23 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 2 0.37666283 0.188331 6.03327638 0.008907939 Residual 20 0.62430893 0.031215 Total 22 1.00097177 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 0.48956639 0.10178957 4.809593 0.00010661 0.277237057 0.701896 0.277237 0.701896 Salariu brut anual CAEN20 (RON) cst 2021 0.64693025 0.1865896 3.467129 0.00243333 0.257711153 1.036149 0.257711 1.036149 Pret gaze intern cu taxe cst 2021 -0.166611 0.08976779 -1.85602 0.07824637 -0.353863366 0.020641 -0.35386 0.020641 Regression of the Gross Profit Differential in relation to the Annual Gross Salaries Differential and the Natural Gas Price Differential Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.467259904 R Square 0.218331818 Adjusted R Square 0.088053788 Standard Error 0.810109384 Observations 22 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 3 3.299547831 1.099849277 1.675891 0.2077234 Residual 18 11.81298985 0.656277214 Total 21 15.11253768 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 0.186224081 0.269625006 0.690678079 0.498578 -0.38023704 0.752685198 -0.38024 0.752685 Delta(LN(Sal cst)) -2.1746993 2.961008173 -0.734445558 0.472137 -8.39554663 4.046148033 -8.39555 4.046148 Delta(LN(PrGaz cst)-1) -0.92103909 0.758601944 -1.214126981 0.240389 -2.51480263 0.672724456 -2.5148 0.672724 ECM1(t-1) -0.95853295 0.456587218 -2.099342491 0.050155 -1.9177871 0.000721202 -1.91779 0.000721 Regression of the Turnover differential in relation to the annual gross salaries differential and the Natural Gas Price differential Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.599078 R Square 0.358894 Adjusted R Square 0.238778 Standard Error 0.204437 Observations 22 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 3 0.44453785 0.148179285 3.545435 0.035502 Residual 19 0.79409327 0.041794383 Total 22 1.23863112 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 0 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A Delta(LN(Sal cst)) 0.547155 0.52629779 1.039630755 0.311561 -0.5544 1.648709 -0.5544 1.648709 Delta(LN(PrGaz cst)) (t-1) -0.49710 0.18142749 -2.739939205 0.013016 -0.87683 -0.11737 -0.87683 -0.11737 ECM2(t-1) -0.82945 0.29856351 -2.778144147 0.01198 -1.45435 -0.20455 -1.45435 -0.20455