Climate change perception, adaptation, and constraints in irrigated agriculture in Punjab and Sindh, Pakistan

Mobeen, Muhammad; Kabir, Khondokar H.; Schneider, Uwe A.; Ahmed, Tauqeer; Scheffran, Jürgen Article — Published Version Climate change perception, adaptation, and constraints in irrigated agriculture in Punjab and Sindh, Pakistan Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Provided in Cooperation with: Springer Nature Suggested Citation: Mobeen, Muhammad; Kabir, Khondokar H.; Schneider, Uwe A.; Ahmed, Tauqeer; Scheffran, Jürgen (2025) : Climate change perception, adaptation, and constraints in irrigated agriculture in Punjab and Sindh, Pakistan, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, ISSN 1573-1596, Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, Vol. 30, Iss. 4, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-025-10212-1 This Version is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/323378 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. 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If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Vol.:(0123456789) Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2025) 30:23 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-025-10212-1 ORIGINAL ARTICLE Climate change perception, adaptation, andconstraints inirrigated agriculture inPunjab andSindh, Pakistan MuhammadMobeen1,3,7 · KhondokarH.Kabir2,4,5 · UweA.Schneider2 · TauqeerAhmed6 · JürgenScheffran1,3 Received: 17 April 2023 / Accepted: 7 March 2025 / Published online: 2 April 2025 © The Author(s) 2025 Abstract Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture suffers from climate change due to its high exposure to climateextreme events and the low adaptation of its farming systems. Understanding the human aspects of adaptation decisions in a vulnerable climatic environment is integral for policymakers who want to enhance farmers’ adaptive capacity. This study investigates how farmers perceive climate change and what adaptation strategies they consider. Furthermore, we assess the enabling and constraining factors influencing farmers’ adaptation decisions. We conducted in-person interviews with 800 farmers across Pakistan’s irrigated districts of the Punjab and Sindh provinces. We used a standardized questionnaire to gather primary cross-sectional data, which we analyzed with descriptive statistics. The results show that farmers in the Indus Plain have noticed changes in climate extremes along with longer summer and shorter winter seasons during the last ten years. Most farmers are aware of adaptation options and have already applied some measures. However, the dominant adaptation strategies differ between regions. The farmers in Punjab have primarily adopted crop and farm management practices, while farmers in Sindh have focused on implementing irrigation measures. In both provinces, farmersregarded rainwater harvesting as the least adopted strategy due to perceived lower effectiveness and practical challenges. The main constraints in the region are a lack of financial resources, water scarcity, and poor soil fertility. Farming decisions are primarily influenced by the availability of financial capital, and specific challenges such as variable rainfall patterns and rising temperatures. Our findings can help policymakers design better policy instruments that account for farmers’ perceptions, motivations, and constraints and are thus more effective in promoting sustainable farming practices in Pakistan. Keywords Climate change perception· Adaptation· Constraints· Irrigated agriculture· Indus plain· Pakistan Extended author information available on the last page of the article Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2025) 30:23 23 Page 2 of 27 1 Introduction Climate change presents a critical challenge to agriculture in Pakistan, a country heavily reliant on its agricultural sector, constituting 22.9% of its GDP and engaging 37.4% of its labor force as of 2022 (GoP 2023). Despite the dependenceof agriculture on canal irrigation, Pakistan is notably vulnerable to climate change due to arid conditions in many parts (Abdullah etal. 2023; Adnan etal. 2017; Ahmed etal. 2019; Schilling etal. 2013; Ullah etal. 2022). This vulnerability is further aggravated by global climate change as Pakistan is the fifth most highly affected country from 1999 to 2018 (Eckstein etal. 2019). These circumstances highlight the urgency for research in climate change perception, adaptation, constraints, and factors of adaptation decisions, particularly in significant food-producing areas like irrigated plains of Punjab and Sindh provinces. The agricultural sector in Pakistan is already facing severe challenges from rising temperatures, droughts, floods, and low crop yields (Abbas 2013; Ahmad etal. 2020; Ahmed & Schmitz 2011; Mohsin & Adnan 2023; Waseem etal. 2022). The climate of the regions is now confronting an even more significant threat from projected climatic variations (Easterling etal. 2000). These projections suggest an intensification of climate change effects on the country’s rain-fed and irrigated agricultural systems. Specifically, Punjab and Sindh are the key wheat and rice production regions. These regions have witnessed declining crop yields and rising crop diseases due to climate extremes such as floods, droughts, and heat waves (Ishfaq etal. 2019). It is estimated that the crop yield can further decline in productivity under various climate scenarios (IPCC 2014), necessitating examining local adaptation measures to avoid these adverse effects. Current research on climate change perception and adaptation to Pakistan’s agriculture has provided substantial insights. However, it often lacks comprehensive coverage across diverse agroecological zones, especially the irrigated plains of Punjab and Sindh (Abid etal. 2015; Abid etal. 2019; Abid etal. 2016a, b; Ali & Rose 2021; Gorst etal. 2018; Salman etal. 2018; Sargani etal. 2022; Syed etal. 2022). Most of these studies cover smaller farming areas and sample sizes. This limitation restricts the applicability of findings and challenges the development of effective policies. Furthermore, a notable deficiency exists in understanding how local farmers perceive climate change and its direct impact on their livelihoods. The interaction between environmental drivers and farmers’ decision-making processes in these areas remains underexplored. This study, which recognizes this gap, focuses on both Punjab and Sindh provinces, aiming to offer a more comprehensive view of climate change adaptation in the irrigated plains of the Indus. In light of the above context, this study explores the adaptation dynamics in irrigated zones, emphasizing the specific constraints and factors affecting the farmers’ adaptation strategies. Our research, aiming to address these issues, encompasses an extensive field survey in the Punjab and Sindh provinces. This approach allows a deeper understanding of these provinces’ adaptation strategies across diverse environmental and socio-economic settings. The survey, with a significant sample size (n = 800), is designed to capture farmers’ perceptions, adaptation, constraints, and factors of adaptation in the upper and lower irrigated plains of the Indus basin. We investigate the following three principal research questions: 1. How do farmers perceive climate change and its impacts on irrigated agriculture? 2. Which adaptation options do they know, and what is their adoption status in the study area? 3. What factors and constraints influence farmers’ adaptation decisions? Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2025) 30:23 Page 3 of 27 23 These questions are essential for understanding the challenges of effective adaptation strategies in agricultural practices, particularly regarding farmers’ perceptions and behaviors in Punjab and Sindh provinces. 2 MPPACC asatheoretical framework Several studies have investigated the climate change perception of farmers and their adaptation actions using a variety of theoretical assumptions. Below are some of the most widely used theories for understanding perception-based adaptation actions. These theories are based on the understanding of the socio-cognitive processes of individuals. Some relevant theories are given below. Ajzen (1985) proposed the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), which states that individual intention can explain individual behavior. Individuals’ intentions depend on their attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control. The TPB has its roots in the Theory of Reason Action (TRA), which states that an individual’s intention to engage in a behavior is determined by their attitude toward the behavior and subjective norms (Fishbein & Ajzen 1977). TRA and TPB effectively explain how attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavior control intended behavior, but they overlook other intrapersonal factors and socio-environmental contexts. The Values Beliefs Norms Theory (VBN) focuses on how personal values, environmental beliefs, and moral norms drive pro-environmental behavior, underscoring the role of normative influences but neglecting socio-environmental contexts (Stern 2000). The Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) of Rogers (1983); and Rogers and Prentice-Dunn (2014) urges the role of threat appraisal and coping appraisal to motivate the intention to protect oneself against perceived threats without considering the influence of socio-environmental context (Floyd etal. 2000). Later, Grothmann and Patt (2005) proposed the Model of Private Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change (MPPACC), which modified the PMT’s cognitive processes and supplemented socio-environmental factors into the model to address climate change risk and adaptation appraisal. The PMMACC’s focus on climate change as a risk, appraisal of adaptation, and inclusion of socio-ecological elements makes it an apt theoretical framework for the present study. This theory is suitable for analyzing farmer’s climate change adaptation appraisal. The process model of MPPACC covers how farmers perceive climate change as a risk and their ability to adapt, which perfectly aligns with our study’s focus. The model also addresses adaptation strategies known to the farmers and the extent of their implementation. The model also considers the role of external cognitive factors and constraints that challenge farmers’ decision to adapt. All these aspects are the focus of the present study. Many studies employed the PMMACC to understand climate change perception, and adaptation in agriculture. We tabulate some of them below in Table1 Table1 summarizes that farmers’ adaptation intention is significantly influenced by their self-efficacy and empirical adaptive capacity rather than merely cognitive perceptions of risk. Additionally, social and political capabilities, alongside awareness of effective measures, play a critical role in shaping adaptation behaviors, with a notable impact of social identity on climate risk perception and motivation. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2025) 30:23 23 Page 4 of 27 Table 1 Studies on the use of MPPACC as a theoretical framework Author Study area Sample Approach Study’s Insight (Yang etal. 2024) China 2230 Quantitative Self-efficacy is a positive predictor of adaptive action (Mitter etal. 2024) India 20 Qualitative Farmers have diverse adaptation intentions, including innovative and contractive measures (Bagambilana and Rugumamu2023) Tanzania 328 Quantitative The adaptation intention of farmers is largely explained by empirical adaptive capacity rather than cognitive factors (Zobeidi etal. 2022) Iran 250 Quantitative Self-efficacy has a negative effect on adaptive behavior. Perceived susceptibility affects maladaptation and adaptive behavior (Mitter etal. 2019) Austria 29 Qualitative Adaptation intentions are only formed if farmers are aware of effective adaptation measures (Woods etal. 2017) Denmark 1053 Quantitative Farmers expressed limited concern about climate change impacts but show a moderate willingness to take adaptive actions in the future if they see benefits arising from climate change impacts (Burnham and Ma2017) China 483 Quantitative Self-efficacy predicts the intention to adapt, while merely perceiving climate change risks and impacts does not necessarily result in an adaptation intention (Eakin etal.2016)USA 33 Quantitative Linking capabilities like social and political capital motivates collective decisions of action (Frank etal. 2011) Mexico 318 Quantitative Social identity shapes farmers’ climate risk perception, motivation, and adaptation (Kuruppu and Liverman2011) Kiribati 132 Quantitative Self-efficacy is a driver of adaptation intention Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2025) 30:23 Page 5 of 27 23 3 Literature review Climate change is a significant challenge to agriculture (Smith & Olesen 2010), and all around the world, people are asking to adapt to the current climate conditions (Howden etal. 2007). This urgency to adapt is equally pronounced worldwide, particularly in South Asia where a major glacial melt and monsoon changes pose serious challenges to agriculture (Mishra etal. 2020). So, this region is under natural and man-made constraints (Aryal etal. 2019). These constraining factors are more daunting for the smallholders due to their low adaptative capacity (Ozor etal. 2011). However, higher adaptive capacity positively influences adaptation practices (Masud etal. 2022; Mobeen etal. 2023). Several studies have reported that the effectiveness of adaptation decisions is linked to stronger climate change perception (Ahmad 2021; Elum & Snijder 2023; Ifeanyi-obi etal. 2023; Irham etal. 2022; Priyanto etal. 2021). The link between perception and adaption is significant as it shapes the attitude and willingness to adapt as a consequence of climate change (Arbuckle etal. 2013; Zhang etal. 2022). Furthermore, the awareness of climatic changes among farmers influences the choice of their adaptive actions (Ifeanyi-obi etal. 2023). However, the decision-making of adaptive actions is not straightforward rather is constrained by several factors like limited resources, capabilities, technological awareness, and financial resources (Kabir etal. 2020; Phương etal. 2017). These constraints deter farmers from adopting adaptive decision-making to respond effectively to climate change and further complicate the influence of decision-making factors (Tessema 2019). Consequently, the adaptation strategies of a farmer are not a simple process to understand; rather they are a complex interplay of perception, adaptive capacity, and local constraints to their decisions. In Pakistan, the climate change perception and adaptation is well researched. The previous studies report diverse findings ranging from the negative impacts of changing temperature and climate change to some yield-increasing case studies. The perception of climate change and its effects are well recognized among the farming community, compelling them to adapt. The number of citations in a paper is a crucial metric for judging the influence and quality of research (Waltman 2016). The semantic scholar compiles extensive data based on these citations (Lwoga etal. 2017). Here we mention 10 highly cited (≥ 100 citations) papers published after 2015 on climate change perception and adaptation in Pakistan’s agriculture. Ali etal. (2017) studied the effects of climate on Pakistan’s agriculture, highlighting the vulnerability of wheat production to climate change which has gotten more than 319 citations so far. They also investigated the vulnerability of farmers in Punjab to climate risks which are further aggravated by socioeconomic constraints, cited 187 times. Fahad and Wang (2018) explored the adaptive actions of farmers to climate variability through diversification strategies, despite systemic hindrances such as labor shortages and insecure land tenure.Their study has been cited 260 times, highlighting its significance in the field. The anticipated decline in cotton yield due to climate variability, as projected by Rahman etal. (2018), and the impacts of carbon emissions on various sectors, as investigated by Rehman etal. (2021), are notable contributions with 161 and 154 citations each. The alignment of farmers’ perceptions with observed climatic trends, as discussed by Abid etal. (2018), and the demographic determinants of adaptive practices, as investigated by Khan etal. (2020), are critical insights from works cited 131 and 122 times, respectively. Abbas etal. (2017) addressed the accelerated phenology of maize, highlighted adaptive sowing practices as mitigation, was cited 114 times. Hussain etal. (2019) concluded the discourse by assessing climate change’s broad impacts on Pakistan’s agriculture and Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2025) 30:23 23 Page 6 of 27 economy. Their studywascited 107 times. This body of work collectively underscores the intricate dynamics of climate change impacts and adaptive behaviors within Pakistan’s agricultural sector. Despite this extensive body of literature, there is a gap in the literature regarding the distinction between adaptation practices in irrigated agriculture from rain-fed agriculture (Torre etal. 2021) which is a vast area in Pakistan. The adaptation dynamics of irrigated and rainfed agriculture differ (Gopalakrishnan etal. 2019; Rockström, 2003). 4 Data andmethods 4.1 Research design We applied a quantitative research approach and developed a questionnaire to collect the data through face-to-face interviews with farmers from December 2021 to April 2022. We included small farmers with landholding up to 16 acres (Hussain & Thapa 2012) in the irrigated plains of Punjab and Sindh, Pakistan. We employed a sampling frame of 800 farmers from 10 districts covering 39 Tehsils/Talukas (district’s subunits) with 80 samples from each district. Figure1 illustrates the geographic location of our survey. Moreover, our survey excluded farmers with landholdings situated beyond the canal command areas within the districts studied. Fig. 1 Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the study area Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2025) 30:23 Page 7 of 27 23 4.2 Description ofthestudy area The Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) covers a total area of 16.85 million hectares (Mha). It consists of the Indus River and its tributaries; Kabul, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej (shown in Fig.1). For irrigation control, the IBIS comprises three significant reservoirs, 12 inter-river link canals, and 44 main canals (Hasan etal. 2021; Steenbergen etal. 2015). The region has the world’s most extensive irrigation system, where almost 80% of the cultivated area is irrigated (Muhammad etal. 2016), producing 90% of the country’s harvests (Zhu etal. 2013). Our study focused on the irrigated regions within the Punjab and Sindh provinces, encompassing all the major rivers (excluding the Kabul River), every link canal, and a total of 39 main canals.. Out of 16.85 Mha, 7.8 Mha of Punjab is irrigated with the help of 25 canals, two reservoirs, and seven barrages, while 5.3 million hectares of Sindh are irrigated with the help of three barrages and 14 canals. We selected this study area for two reasons; first, it contributes considerably to the country’s agricultural output and is vulnerable to climatic change. The area shares borders with neighboring India from the east and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and Baluchistan provinces from the west. It is approximately 40% of the total area of Pakistan, where 74% of the country’s total population lives. The soil of these plains comprises alluvium deposits accumulated by the river actions of the Indus River and its associated tributaries in the geological past. This soil property makes the area fertile for agricultural purposes. Pakistan is among the world’s top ten producers of cotton, sugarcane, wheat, mango, dates, and Kinnow (citrus). Major crops (rice, cotton, wheat, and sugarcane) alone contribute 4.9% of Pakistan’s economy (AARI 2024; FAO 2023). However, water resources in the region are highly stressed, whether judged by per capita water availability or by the ratio of withdrawals to runoff(Archer etal. 2010). The mean average temperature in Punjab ranges from − 2° to 45 °C, and exceptionally reaches 50°C in summer and drops down to − 8°C in winter. In Sindh, temperatures rise above 46°C from May to August and drop to 2°C in winter. The interior of lower Sindh experienced up to 53.5°C in 2010, the fourth-highest reading ever recorded in Asia (Abbas etal. 2018; Huber & Gulledge 2011). Recent calculations in 2021 estimate a decreasing precipitation trend all around Pakistan with − 1.11mm/year (Ali etal. 2021). Most of the regions in Punjab province receive moderate to high rainfall ranging from ~ 275 to 830mm/ year, while Sindh province receives ~ 150 to 180mm/year. The amount of rain declines if we approach from north to south. The elevation of the Indus plains varies from 300m in northern Punjab to 75m near the southern border of Punjab, down to the Arabian Sea. In the plains, the slope fall rate is 0.3m per 1.6km (Khan 2016). The lower Indus Plain is part of Sindh province, the second largest province in population. Figure1 shows the Digital Elevation Map of the area where we conducted our fieldwork. The area of both provinces is mainly agricultural, which is under stress due to the region’s lack of rain and desertification trends. 4.3 Population andsampling Small farmers (with landholdings ≤ 16 acres) cultivating irrigated areas of Punjab and Sindh were the population under study. In Pakistan, 80% of farmers own 28% of cultivable land. There are 7.4 million smallholders in Pakistan who hold less than 12 acres of land (5 hectares) (ASF 2021; GoP 2010; Khan 2022). We chose small farmers because they are Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2025) 30:23 23 Page 8 of 27 important to Pakistan’s agriculture for several reasons. Firstly, most of them live in rural areas and make their living through agriculture. Secondly, small landholdings are so common throughout the country. Therefore, they are so important for a country’s food security. Thirdly, small farmers are often the ones most affected by economic shocks and natural disasters because they don’t have the money or credit that commercial farmers do. Therefore, small farmers are important for promoting sustainable farming practices because they depend more on natural resources and have more at stake in keeping them around for future generations. These small farmers are distributed in the entire IBIS of Punjab and Sindh province, which have 66 (36 + 30) districts. We used a multistage spatial cluster sampling strategy to select the respondents from these districts. Table1 contains the distribution of our interviewees in our selected locations. In the first stage, we chose an equal number of districts from both provinces. We selected five districts from Punjab and five from Sindh based on the physiographic and irrigation control of the provinces. We used the Punjab and Sindh physiographic and irrigation maps to select districts. Punjab plains are divided into four interfluves, while Sindh has relatively uniform physiography. In Punjab, Terbela and Mangal reservoirs provide water for irrigation. In Sindh, Guddu, Sukkur, and Kotri Barrage irrigate its agricultural land. In Punjab, we randomly selected at least one district from each interfluve. We selected Bhakkar from Sagar doab, Vehari from Bari doab, Sargodha from Chaj doab, Gujranwala from Rachna doab, and Rajanpur from the lowermost part of Punjab. Terbela reservoir controls the irrigation of Bhakkar, Vehari, and Rajanpur, while Mangal controls the irrigation of the Sargodha district. Sindh province has not had much physiographic heterogeneity in its irrigated areas. Therefore, in Sindh, we selected districts based on irrigation-controlling structures. We selected Shikarpur from the Guddu barrage, Badin from the Kotri barrage, and Larkana, Naushahro Feroze, and Shaheed Benazirabad from the Sukkur barrage. In stage two, we covered all Tehsils and Talukas (Sub-unit of the district) in every district and visited a total of 39 Tehsils. In stage three, we randomly selected mauzas (the smallest revenue-collecting unit in Pakistan) based on the best spatial coverage of the Tehsil. In the last stage, we selected farmland and the respondents for the interview based on our convenient road connectivity to reach any farmer. Overall, 800 and precisely 80 farmers from each district were interviewed. We interviewed a minimum of 10 and a maximum of 35 farmers from each Tehsil, but our target for each district was 80 interviews. The number of Tehsils in each district is different, and the number of interviews in each Tehsil is varied. Table1 shows the valid samples in every district and tehsils which we included in the study. 4.4 Development ofquestionnaire anddata collection Similar to previous studies (Bhalerao etal. 2022, 2021), we developed a standardized questionnaire comprising 51 questions to study our research question. We divided perception into 16 questions, adaptation into 18 questions, constraints into eight questions, and decision-making variables into nine statements. We subdivided the perception part into the following categories: Perception about climatic indicators (CI), Perception about soil (SO), Perception about climatic hazards (CH), Perception about farming (FA), and Perception about water (WA). We categorized adaptation into three categories; Crop management (CM), Farm management (FM), and Irrigation management (IM). We adapted these categories from the adaptation paradigm Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2025) 30:23 Page 15 of 27 23 could translate these changes to their cropping calendar. Finally, regarding climate change’s effects on water quality, we found that 73% believed groundwater quality has deteriorated. In comparison, 72% of the respondents’ irrigation water quality has declined over the last ten years. 5.3 Adaptation measures andtheir implementation Our results show that most farmers (60%) have adapted to changes in their cultivation techniques (see Fig.4). They started using hybrid seeds and shifting to a crop variety that a farmer could harvest early. Due to the recent hike in inflation in Pakistan, farmers have Fig. 9 Constraints to adaptation (HCOs are Human constraints; NCOs are Natural constraints) Fig. 10 Factors of farmer’s adaptation decision making Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2025) 30:23 23 Page 16 of 27 shifted to cost-effective crops (56%). The farmers prioritized cheaper seeds rather than their higher productivity. More than half of the farmers (53%) changed their fertilizers. However, the underlying reason for fertilizer change was inflation or the marketing of fertilizer and pesticide companies. As the study area was the irrigated region of Pakistan, rainwater harvesting is not even known to most farmers. Few farmers are just aware of the practice but are not applying it. Cultivating salt-tolerant crops has been introduced by some agriculture research institutes, especially in the Punjab region. However, most people (56%) are unaware of them, and some are aware but unable to implement them on their farms. Regarding Irrigation-related management (IM), canal dredging (IM4) is the most widely implemented adaptation practice (55%). Tube well installation has been adapted by 46%, while almost half of them cannot install it due to its high economic cost. In some areas, local modification of irrigation rules (IM5) is in practice (19%), but most farmers are unaware of it. Only 25% are applying plantation on the farm (FM4). 5.4 Adaptation level inPunjab andSindh Figures5 and 6 compare the adaptation levels in both provinces (Punjab N = 400 and Sindh N = 400) in our study area. To represent the degree of adaptation, we categorized adaptation into no adaptation, low, medium, and high adaptation levels in crop, farm, and irrigation management adaptation practices. In Punjab, the overwhelming majority (87%) practice cost-effective cropping (CM4), 84% tried different fertilizers (FM3), and 83% adapted changes in the scheduling of their farmland preparation (FM2). Regarding the least practiced adaptations, only 10% adapted to rainwater harvesting (IM6), 32% adapted through legume cropping (CM6), and 33% sifting to salt-tolerant cropping (CM3). Farmers in Punjab adapted early cultivars (68%). The agriculture of Punjab is more market-oriented than that of Sindh because 87% of the farmers in Punjab adapted to cultivate cost-effective crops, while this percentage is 60% in Sindh (see Fig.6). In Sindh, 75% adapted with on-farm tree plantation (FM4) due to intense heat waves during recent times, 74% applied canal dredging (IM4), and 74% adapted through changes in cultivation techniques (FM1). On the other hand, only 34% apply rainwater harvesting (IM6), and 38% change their irrigation methods (IM2). In addition, almost 40% are employing tillage and water allocation rules. Table2 shows our field survey data on individual adaptation practices by farmers in the Punjab and Sindh provinces. We show here the adaptors and non-adaptors in crop, farm, and irrigation management in both provinces. In Sindh, tree plantation (75%) and agroforestry (72%) are better adapted than in Punjab (50% and 46%, respectively). It is because of the heat waves and hotter summer in the region where the temperature touches 52 to 53C Table3. Figures7 a and b compare adaption in the provinces of Punjab and Sindh. Farmers in Punjab switched to farm management strategies rather than irrigation. Adaptive crop management practices are also more common in Punjab than in Sindh. In irrigation management, however, farmers in Sindh (337) adapted better than those in Punjab (302). Table2 and Fig.7 a show our findings from individual adaptation measures. The map below (Fig.8) shows the spatial distribution of adaptation actions within our study units. In our study area, we plot the computed adaptation score of crop management, farm management, and irrigation management for 39 spatial units (Tehsils and Talukas). Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2025) 30:23 Page 17 of 27 23 In crop management, the northernmost (Gujranwala) and the southernmost (Badin) districts have the highest adaptation, while the southern Punjab region (Vehari and Rajanpur) has very low or no adaptation. In Farm management, the two northern districts in Punjab province (Gujranwala and Sargodha) showed the highest adaptation score. District Vehari in Punjab is again found low in adapting strategies at the farm. Interestingly irrigation management is the highest in Gujranwala and medium in Rajanpur. District Bhakkar (half desert) was the lowest in adapting irrigation-related adaptation strategies. There is no clear trend in the lower Indus plains (Sindh), whereas it shows a mix-up of all possible adaptation scores (low to high). 5.5 Constraints andfactors inadaptation Despite having enough realization regarding climate change in our study area, many farmers did not make significant adjustments to their farming. We identified and ranked some constraints preventing farmers from adopting different climate change mitigation strategies. We found that a lack of financial resources (cited by 69% of respondents) was the most significant barrier to adaptation. Table 3 On-farm adaptation in Punjab and Sindh, Pakistan Adaptation Punjab (n = 400) Sindh (n = 400) Crop Management Code Adaptors Non-Adaptors Adaptors Non-Adaptors CM1 343 57 264 136 CM2 314 86 268 132 CM3 210 190 269 131 CM4 389 11 381 19 CM5 330 70 355 45 CM6 312 88 262 138 Avg 316 84 300 100 Farm Management FM1 363 37 377 23 FM2 381 19 296 104 FM3 364 36 296 104 FM4 338 62 365 35 FM5 301 99 243 157 Avg 349 51 315 85 Irrigation Management IM1 298 102 379 21 IM2 337 63 336 64 IM3 376 24 379 21 IM4 367 33 378 22 IM5 244 156 259 141 IM6 105 295 242 158 IM7 386 14 385 15 Avg 302 98 337 63 Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2025) 30:23 23 Page 18 of 27 We found that water scarcity (57%) and poor soil fertility (44%) are second and third if we rank the constraints to adaptation. Figure9 expresses the constraints faced by the farmers in our study area. A previous study found inadequate irrigation supplies and knowledge about appropriate adaptation options were significant roadblocks to the adaptation process (Ali & Rose 2021). (Shah etal. 2022) recently reported financial constraints (28%), lack of knowledge and information (25%), and inadequate farm resources (23%) in the northwestern province of Pakistan. We see factors as variables that influence farmers’ decisions. Figure10 shows the ranking of agricultural decision-controlling factors in our study area. We found that financial liquidity and crop price sensitivity are the critical factors that control farmers’ farming decisions in our study area with their significance quantified at 78% and 77%, respectively. Interestingly, climatic factors (temperature 70%, rain 68%, water availability 63%, and pest attacks 55%) are secondary if we compare them with money-related factors. According to Bryan Bryan etal. (2013), wealth, access to extension services, credit, and knowledge of the local climate are all factors that affect farmers’ decisions to adapt in South Africa and Ethiopia. 6 Discussion This study was aimed to highlight farmers’ perceptions of climate change, their adaptation strategies, and the constraints they face and factors that shape their decision making in the irrigated plains of Punjab and Sindh, Pakistan. Our findings confirm that climate change is a key challenge in the region shaping perception and adaptation decisions, as evidenced by the significant impacts on crop yields and water quality reported by farmers in both provinces. Climate change is a daunting challenge for a fragile farming system in Pakistan (Syed etal. 2022). Rising temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns in the Indus Plains are reported (Mobeen etal. 2017). According to our survey results, farmers in Punjab and Sindh provinces perceive changing seasonal patterns, which aligs with Bhatti etal. (2019). According to Abbas (2013), rising heat waves and more rainy days are severe challenges for agricultural practices in Pakistan. Several studies (Abid etal. 2019; Arshad etal. 2017) have yielded similar outcomes in the last five years. Insitu meteorological observations from 1981–2010 also reported extended summers by 4.19 nights and 0.92days per decade (Abbas 2013). Most farmers are well aware of climate change and believe it is one reason for their low crop yield. In addition, most respondents believe climate change is responsible for deteriorated irrigated water and groundwater quality in the last ten years. Shah etal. (2019) also reported the perceived decline in irrigated water quality and groundwater table. Climate changes and subsequent regional perception shifts influenced agricultural practice in all respects. Especially the effects of climate change on agricultural output in Punjab province have been the subject of extensive research (Bashir & Mobeen 2018), which reported a decline in productivity due to climate change. Scientific literature highlights that climate change is fueling existing problems and creating new ones, such as changes in rainfall and temperature, which are pushing farmers to change their cultivation practices for better results.Scheffran etal. (2012) investigated this nexus of defining the role of climate change, which was later reported on by Froese and Schilling (2019); Ide etal. (2016). Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2025) 30:23 Page 19 of 27 23 Adaptation to climate change is a complex process requiring a sound understanding of how farmers perceive and interpret climatic changes locally (Abbas etal. 2022). According to our survey, the awareness of adaptation strategies varies from place to place. Farmers in Sindh are less likely to be aware of improved crop varieties and cultivation methods, which is not the case in Punjab. Therefore, the farmers in Punjab have strongly adopted to salttolerant and water-stress-tolerant crop varieties. Farmers in Punjab are also adapted to cultivating early cultivars, especially in upper Punjab. Another contrast is that the agriculture of Sindh is less market-oriented than that of Punjab because 87% of the farmers in Punjab adapted to cultivate cost-effective crops, while this percentage is 60 in Sindh. Tree plantation (75%) and agroforestry (72%) are more adapted in Sindh, while in Punjab, the percentage is 50 and 46, respectively. The underlying cause of this disparity could be heat waves and a hotter summer in the region where temperatures reach 52 to 53°C. Lack of knowledge regarding adaptation measures is a significant cause of low adaptation rates in rural areas. We found that many farmers in the Indus Plain were unaware of many useful adaptation measures. For example, farmers do not know enough about using salt-tolerant crop varieties, legume cropping, tillage modification, local modification of irrigation rules, and rainwater harvesting. The agriculture extension department should address the lack of awareness by launching an awareness campaign in rural areas. Many farmers knew the possible adaptation practice but could not apply it despite their positive adaptation intention. For example, cultivation of high revenue-producing crops, irrigation rescheduling, watercourse certification, and new tub well installation are those measures that are well known to most farmers. They want to adopt these measures but cannot do it due to insufficient resources. Therefore, we recommend that governmental financial institutions and banks dispense interest-free loans and subsidies. An appropriate adaptation strategy needs a clear understanding of farmers’ perception ofclimaticpatterns and the drivers and constraints toadaptation (Esham & Garforth 2013). However, despite realizing enough about climate change in our study area, many farmers did not significantly adjust their farming. Surprisingly, there were a large number of farmers who were well aware of some helpful adaptation practices but were not ready to implement them. We can attribute this adaptation delay to perceived constraints and decision-making factors. Nevertheless, we need to explore this further from the behavioral study viewpoint. In our results, we found that some farmers were not ready to adapt even though they were pretty sure about the benefit of some adaptation measures. For example, 42% farmers avoided installing new tube wells to address water shortage due to their high cost. However, they did not apply even the lowcost measures, i.e., Changing irrigation methods (43.5%) and local modification of irrigation rules (16.25%). The reason behind this behavior is worth exploring for future research regarding climate change adaptation in Pakistan’s agriculture sector. Some studies dealt with this behavior as cognitive dissonance of the people (Oswald & Bright 2022). The main constraints to adaptation in the study area are lack of money, water scarcity, poor soil fertility, and small landholdings. The fact is in line with the findings of a study (Ali etal. 2020) in different agro-ecological units of Punjab province, which also identified that lack of money, high cost of farm inputs, and lack of knowledge about appropriate adaptations are the most critical constraints in adaptation practices. In another study (Bhalerao etal. 2022) in mountainous regions in India, most farmers (68.1%) indicated that the high cost of agricultural inputs is the most significant constraint, which slows down the adaptation process. Financial resource is a universal factor as it is equally influential all around the globe. Even in the developed world, Australia’s major adaptation constraint was high production costs and debt (Brown etal. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2025) 30:23 23 Page 20 of 27 2016). These constraints work as a deterrent factor in the adaptation process. On the other hand, larger farmer landholding size, capital, farming experience, farmer education level, soil fertility, water availability, and access to the latest information can positively affect the adaptation process. The lower value of any of these factors limits the farmer’s capability to adapt or act. We found an evident spatial variation in adaptation levels across the study area. This contrast may be due to farmers’ heterogeneous capabilities and constraints across the region. In our findings, the magnitude of constraints is also different in different areas. Lack of financial resources is our study area’s most widespread constraint on adaptation. To address this constraint, the government of Pakistan introduced many subsidies and financial loan schemes through banks. However, most farmers were reluctant to use bank credit financing due to high-interest rates and cumbersome documentary procedures. Simplifying this loan procurement procedure through banks can help farmers to deal with their problems (Saqib etal. 2016). However, the literature reports that such loans are not used to address agricultural challenges. Instead, they are used for non-farm expenditures like farmers’ leisure activities and purchasing household items of daily use (Shabir etal. 2020). According to our findings, poor soil fertility is another critical constraint in the Indus Plain. Low soil fertility is also a limiting factor that deters farmers from adopting new crop varieties. The studies have reported multiple soil nutrient deficiencies in the intensive cropping regions, especially cotton-wheat cropping areas of Sindh (Bux etal. 2022). The soil fertility loss was significantly improved when sustainable soil management and fertilizer treatment were applied in the affected regions of Punjab (Qazi & Khan 2021). Smaller landholdings are another constraint in adapting new adaptation measures. Saqib et al. (2016) reported that smaller landholdings in Sindh were a significant factor in low credit access to the farmers. Various factors influence farmers’ decisions, and there are multiple ways of grouping these factors (Chilonda & Van Huylenbroeck 2001). We grouped these factors into climatic and non-climatic factors. The farmers rated climatic factors significantly, but financial resources from the non-climatic factor group were found to be the most influential factor influencing their decisions. We also found that the role of government agricultural advisory and government policies significantly influences the decision of farmers. Peer advice is rated more important than advisory services in the region. This is typical of underdeveloped social structures where informal social capital is trusted more than formal, which was studied by Escandon-Barbosa etal. (2019). The above discussion highlights some important underlying dimensions shaping the perception and adaptation decisions of the farmers. First, the differential adaptation responses between Punjab and Sindh indicate a broader socio-economic and cultural landscape influencing farmers’ decisions beyond purely climatic factors. This disparity suggests further study of some localized solutions, sensitive to the socio-economic and cultural context of each province. Secondly, the role of financial constraints in shaping adaptation decisions reveals the deeper problem with resource accessibility among the farming community. The focus on economic constraints and the prioritization of cost-effective crops over higher productivity options reflect a survival strategy rather than optimal agricultural practice. This hints at the untapped potential for significant yield improvements through intervention. Furthermore. The high awareness about climate change impact as well as the gap in implementations of adaptation options indicate a knowledge transfer bottleneck. This situation highlights the need for a localized agricultural extension program to disseminate adaptation options. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2025) 30:23 Page 21 of 27 23 7 Conclusion The farmers in the Indus Plains have a significant perception of frequent heat waves, an extended summer, and a contracted winter. However, half of them can translate this seasonal change into changes in their cropping calendar. They strongly perceive the decline in crop yields in the last ten years because of climate change. Farmers in our study area report a loss of soil fertility and a decline in irrigated water quality. Most farmers are aware of the majority of adaptation options and have already adopted the measures. In Punjab, the farmers adapted more to crop and farm management; in Sindh, the farmers adapted to irrigation-related arrangements. It indicates that the water problem is more pronounced in the lower riparian region than in the upper riparian region, suggesting a critical need for policies that facilitate effective adaptation strategies, especially in resource-limited settings. Future research can explore this variation of adaptation strategies in the Indus Plains. Rainwater harvesting is unknown to most of the farmers in the region. Recognizing the economic constraints highlighted by our findings, we advocate for targeted interventions such as promoting rainwater harvesting to cope with water challenges, using solar energy for tube wells to deal with energy crises, and integrating credit financing to mitigate financial challenges. Targeted subsidies for strategically important crops or regions most affected by climate change could enhance farmers’ financial capacity, similar to the current cotton subsidies in the south Punjab region, ensuring sustainability and economic viability.. The use of organic fertilizers (manure use) should be promoted as they incur a meager cost, offering a cost-effective method to improve soil fertility. We identified knowledge gaps about some important adaptation options. For example, there is a lack of knowledge about new irrigation methods, legume cropping, and new crop varieties. An information campaign with the help of the agriculture extension department can be helpful to close these gaps. We also revealed that some farmers are not ready to adapt despite knowing the benefits of adaptation, and some have delayed their adaptation actions for the future. Exploring the reluctance to make adaptation decisions should be the subject of future research. Constraints and factors, we believe, play moderating roles in the adaptation process. Lack of financial assets, limited water availability, poor soil fertility, inadequate land size, and a lack of information related to adaptation measures were significant constraints at the farm level. We also discovered that money and the market were important factors in Pakistani farmers’ decisions, underscoring the necessity for targeted educational programs and financial support mechanisms. The farmers perceive the role of natural factors (temperature, rainfall, and water availability) as less important than the availability of financial resources. To address the lack of financial resources, timely payment for the crop from the mill owners, credit financing from banks, and subsidies on electricity can show good results. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at https:// doi. org/ 10. 1007/ s1102702510212-1. Acknowledgements This study is partially funded bythe Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under Germany‘s Excellence Strategy – EXC 2037 ’CLICCS - Climate, Climatic Change, and Society’ – Project Number: 390683824 and contributes to the Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) of Universität Hamburg. Funding Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change (2025) 30:23 23 Page 22 of 27 Data availability This paper is based on primary data, which can be provided upon request to the first author. Declarations Conflicts of interest The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. 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