Independen G ow h S udy G oup on Sus aining T ans o ma i e G ow h in S i
Lanka
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Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025-2030: Repo o an
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Sus aining ans o ma i e
g ow h in S i Lanka
2025–2030
Repo o an Independen G ow h S udy G oup
unde he auspices o ODI Global and he Cen e
o Po e y Analysis (CEPA)
July 2025
Sus aining ans o ma i e
g ow h in S i Lanka
2025–2030
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How o ci e: ODI Global and CEPA (2025) Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in
S i Lanka 2025–2030. ODI Global epo . London: ODI Global (www.odi.o g/
publica ions/sus aining- ans o ma i e-g ow h-in-s i-lanka-odi-cepa-
g ow h-s udy- epo )
i
Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
Acknowledgemen s
Abou his publica ion
This epo has been d a ed by Si imal Abey a ne, Chand ana h Ame aseke a,
Ra in Basnayake, Ind aji Cooma aswamy, Y e e Fe nando, Di k Willem e
Velde, Esala Wee akoon, Shea Wick emasinghe and Ganeshan Wigna aja. Unde
he auspices o wo hink anks – ODI Global in London and he Cen e o
Po e y Analysis (CEPA) in Colombo, hese indi iduals o med an Independen
G ow h S udy G oup wi h Ganeshan Wigna aja as he con eno .
The Independen S udy G oup consis s o p o essionals wi h deep expe ience
in he public sec o , he p i a e sec o , hink anks and in e na ional inancial
ins i u ions. The ollowing membe s ha e se ed in hei pe sonal capaci ies,
and he indings should no be a ibu ed o he o ganisa ions hey ep esen o
we e a ilia ed wi h.
Abou he au ho s
Si imal Abey a ne is Execu i e Di ec o o CEPA and Eme i us P o esso a
Colombo Uni e si y.
Chand ana h Ame aseke a is Assis an Go e no a he Cen al Bank o S i Lanka.
Ra in Basnayake is Managing Di ec o /Ci i Coun y O ice a Ci i S i Lanka.
Ind aji Cooma aswamy is o me Go e no o he Cen al Bank o S i Lanka
and o me Di ec o o he Economic A ai s Di ision o he Commonweal h
Sec e a ia , London.
Y e e Fe nando is o me Senio Depu y Go e no a he Cen al Bank o S i Lanka.
Di k Willem e Velde is Di ec o and P incipal Resea ch Fellow a ODI Global’s
In e na ional Economic De elopmen G oup. He is also P o esso o P ac ice a
SOAS, Uni e si y o London.
Esala Wee akoon is o me Sec e a y Gene al o he Sou h Asian Associa ion
o Regional Coope a ion; o me Fo eign Sec e a y o S i Lanka; and o me
Senio Addi ional Sec e a y o he P esiden o S i Lanka.
Shea Wick emasinghe is G oup Managing Di ec o a CBL G oup.
ii Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
Ganeshan Wigna aja is Con eno o he Independen G ow h S udy G oup.
He is Visi ing Senio Fellow a ODI Global; o me Execu i e Di ec o o S i
Lanka’s Fo eign Minis y hink ank; and o me Di ec o o Resea ch, Asian
De elopmen Bank Ins i u e.
The Sec e a ia consis ed o Anishka De Zyl a, Angela Kolongo, and Ch is een
Masha. Backg ound in o ma ion was p o ided by Max Mendez-Pa a, Phyllis
Papada id and She illyn Raga.
The wo k o his g oup builds on he ODI Global book o essays, S i Lanka:
om deb de aul o ans o ma i e g ow h, whose second edi ion
(upda ed o e en s in Ap il 2025) is a ailable a : www.odi.o g/publica ions/s i-
lanka- om-deb -de aul - o- ans o ma i e-g ow h-second-edi ion. The
g oup me i e imes du ing he cou se o Janua y o June 2025 o p epa e his
epo .
The membe s o he Independen G ow h S udy G oup on Sus aining
T ans o ma i e G ow h in S i Lanka a e g a e ul o he nume ous commen s,
sugges ions and inpu s o many indi iduals and ins i u ions du ing he cou se
o his wo k, including business associa ions, uni e si ies, go e nmen o icials,
diploma ic co ps, de elopmen pa ne s and ODI Global and Cen e o Po e y
Analysis colleagues.
iii
Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
Con en s
Acknowledgemen s / i
Table and igu es / i
Ac onyms /
Execu i e summa y / i
1 In oduc ion: o e iew and policy p oposals / 1
2 Causes o he economic c isis / 3
3 Rema kable economic s abilisa ion – bu isks emain / 6
4 Key ing edien s o and policies o a g ow h plan / 10
4.1 Sound mac oeconomic policy / 10
4.2 S uc u al e o ms / 12
4.3 Po en ial high-g ow h sec o s / 13
4.4 Imp o ed policies o educe po e y / 16
5 Lessons o implemen ing e o ms / 18
5.1 A lack o poli ical consensus / 18
5.2 Weak s a e capaci y / 19
5.3 Limi ed p ojec moni o ing / 20
5.4 Key ac ions o e ec i e implemen a ion / 21
6 A las wo d / 23
Re e ences / 24
Appendix 1 Goods and se ices expo s, FDI in lows and ou ism ea nings, coun y
compa ison / 28
Appendix 2 Good p ac ice p ojec moni o ing / 30
i Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
Table and igu es
Table
Table ES1 P oposals o accele a ing g ow h and educing po e y in S i Lanka, 2025–2030 / iii
Figu es
Figu e ES1 Economic pe o mance: om c isis o eco e y / ii
Figu e 1 GDP pe capi a (cu en US$) / 1
Figu e 2 Public deb as a sha e o GDP (%) / 3
Figu e 3 Po e y headcoun a io a $3.65 a day, 2017 PPP (% o popula ion) / 4
Figu e 4 G oss O icial Rese es, excluding People›s Bank o China Swap / 7
Figu e 5 S i Lanka’s annual and qua e ly GDP g ow h a es (%) / 8
Figu e 6 Un apped Po en ial o S i Lanka’s G ow h – ade and in es men / 12
Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
Ac onyms
ASEAN Associa ion o Sou heas Asian Na ions
CEPA Cen e o Po e y Analysis
CSF Cen e o a Sma Fu u e
EU Eu opean Union
FDI o eign di ec in es men
FIT lexible in la ion a ge ing
FTA ee ade ag eemen
GDP g oss domes ic p oduc
ICT in o ma ion and communica ion echnology
ID iden i ica ion
IMF In e na ional Mone a y Fund
IT in o ma ion echnology
MSMEs mic o, small and medium en e p ises
NPP Na ional People’s Powe
PPP pu chasing powe pa i y
SOE s a e-owned en e p ise
UK Uni ed Kingdom
UNDP Uni ed Na ions De elopmen P og amme
US Uni ed S a es
WTO Wo ld T ade O ganiza ion
xii Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
P oposal Rema ks
24. In es in digi al public in as uc u e, imp o e
e-go e nmen public se ices and inc ease he
a ac i eness o digi al paymen s.
Expedi e he in oduc ion o he digi al ID wi h s ong
da a p o ec ion and cybe secu i y s anda ds and
egula o y e o ms.
P epa e a da abase on he digi al economy and se ices
(e.g. a su ey on e-comme ce and e-paymen s).
Reducing po e y
25. Reduce pos -ha es losses and ackle sho ages o
imp o e ood secu i y and educe high ood p ices.
Libe alise ood impo s as an eme gency measu e (as
needed) o alle ia e sho ages o educe ood p ices.
Pa ne wi h supe ma ke s/ ade s in be e cold s o age
sys ems, in oduce mode n cold s o age con aine s o
anspo ing pe ishable ood, explo e a pilo p ojec
o use CTB buses o anspo ood and in es in ail
anspo (whe e possible) o educe pos -ha es losses.
Upg ade Sa hosa ou le ne wo ks o sell a baske o basic
ood a con olled p ices o hose on a low income.
26. Unde he Aswesuma p og amme, be e a ge
ime-bound cash ans e s owa ds he poo es o sus ain
essen ial consump ion o a empo a y pe iod while
p o iding coo dina ed suppo o g adua ion in o quali y
wo k.
Household elec ici y consump ion o mobile da a usage,
o ins ance, may be used as an income p oxy in he
absence o mo e p ecise a ge ing.
Expedi e implemen a ion o he Unique Digi al ID Scheme
o enable e-cash ans e s and imp o e cybe secu i y
capabili ies.
Encou age he poo o open bank accoun s o enable
e-cash ans e s.
27. S udy he ixabili y o inc eased de elopmen inance
o mic o, small and medium en e p ises (MSMEs)
h ough exis ing inancial ins i u ions (and o new
ins i u ion) and se ing up a c edible c edi sco ing
sys em na ionally.
Seek long- e m c edi lines om he Asian De elopmen
Bank o Japan o educe he ma u i y misma ch ha
inc eases he isks o MSME lending.
Focus on inance o sec o s like ou ism and ag icul u e.
Expand he c edi sco ing se ices o he C edi
In o ma ion Bu eau o S i Lanka by inco po a ing all
ele an da a sou ces.
Encou age indus ies wi h mo e alue addi ion a ge ed
owa ds expo di e si ica ion
S eng hen he se ices o Expo De elopmen Boa d,
he Indus ial De elopmen Boa d, he Comme ce
Depa men , he S i Lanka Expo C edi Insu ance
Co po a ion, e c. o acili a e MSMEs o access inancing
and ma ke s.
Add ess he low pene a ion o insu ance p oduc s o
mi iga e business isks.
Implemen he Na ional Financial Inclusion S a egy o he
Cen al Bank o S i Lanka (including he Financial Li e acy
Roadmap) in collabo a ion wi h all s akeholde s.
xiii
Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
P oposal Rema ks
Build policy consensus and s a e capaci y
28. Go e nmen o appoin an independen g ow h
commission o o mula e a na ional g ow h plan d awing
on examples o successes like Ko ea, Malaysia, Singapo e,
Thailand, Vie Nam, he Uni ed A ab Emi a es and India.
Go e nmen o con ene a na ional con e ence wi h key
s akeholde s o de elop a consensus on he plan and
long- e m implemen a ion. Ideas om his should in o m
he e ision o he Economic T ans o ma ion Ac .
29. De elop a lase -like ocus on policy implemen a ion
and p ojec moni o ing h ough se ing up a commi ee
o sec e a ies o de elopmen minis ies o s eng hen
p io i y-se ing and coo dina ion o implemen a ion; a
na ional ope a ions oom o moni o ing o all policies,
p og ammes and p ojec s; a igo ous p ocess o
onboa ding p ojec s; and a p ojec moni o ing commi ee
o moni o he p og ess o p io i ised la ge-scale
p ojec s.
Such ini ia i es should also be guided by he need o
sus ain mac oeconomic s abili y.
30. Signi ican ly upg ade aining on public policy and
adminis a ion o public se an s and membe s o
pa liamen .
Es ablish a op public policy and public adminis a ion
school o execu i e educa ion o public se an s and
membe s o pa liamen by pa ne ing wi h a wo ld
class in e na ional uni e si y (e.g. Science Po in Pa is,
he C aw o d School o Public Policy a he Aus alian
Na ional Uni e si y in Canbe a and Lee Kuan Yew School
in Singapo e).
Explo e ying he S i Lanka Ins i u e o De elopmen
Adminis a ion wi h in e na ional equi alen s (e.g.
Malaysia, India and Aus alia) o ain public se an s in
mode n public se ice managemen , alue o money
se ice deli e y and in eg i y.
1
Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
1 In oduc ion: o e iew and
policy p oposals
1 Explana ions o S i Lanka’s de elopmen slippage a e o be ound in Kelegama (2000) and
Ame aseke a and Venuganan (2021).
A Independence in 1948, S i Lanka was
second o Japan on mos socioeconomic
indica o s; in 1960 i was ahead o
Ko ea on pe capi a income. I has since
slipped behind mos Asian neighbou s
(see Figu e 1 and able in Appendix 1).1
Fa wo se in e ms o he impac on he
economy and he S i Lankan people,
in 2022 he coun y ell in o i s wo s
economic c isis since Independence,
p ecipi a ed by de aul ing on i s o eign
deb , and en e ed i s 17 h In e na ional
Mone a y Fund (IMF) p og amme.
S i Lanka’s expe ience o e s aluable
lessons o middle-income coun ies
g appling wi h pos -Co id deb dis ess.
While he economy is showing signs
o s abilisa ion since 2024 – bols e ed
by posi i e g ow h, low in la ion, a
boom in ou ism and a bullish s ock
ma ke (IMF, 2025) – he challenges o
achie ing con inued inclusi e g ow h
and economic ans o ma ion a e a
om o e .
Figu e 1 GDP pe capi a (cu en US$)
Bangladesh $2,551
Cambodia $2,430
Ko ea, Rep. $33,121
S i Lanka $3,828
Thailand $7,182
Vie Nam $4,282
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
Sou ce: Wo ld Bank Wo ld De elopmen Indica o s da abase
S i Lanka inds i sel on he p ecipice o
bo h oppo uni y and isk. In his con ex ,
i is c ucial ha he new Na ional People’s
Powe (NPP) go e nmen cha a new
pa h owa ds inclusi e and
ans o ma i e g ow h ha ensu es deb
sus ainabili y, a oids u u e c ises and
deli e s o all S i Lankans. ‘Business as
2Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
usual’ ep esen s a cul de sac o lowe
compe i i eness, pe e ing ou o g ow h
and indeb edness.
To add ess his c i ical need, ODI Global
has ini ia ed a s udy g oup wi h eminen
S i Lankan economic hinke s o de elop
a new g ow h plan o he coun y. This
exe cise builds on ou co-edi ed essay
se ies, S i Lanka: om deb de aul o
ans o ma i e g ow h, which p esen s
27 p agma ic policy p oposals d awing
on insigh s by leading S i Lankan and
in e na ional expe s (Wigna aja and e
Velde, 2025).
Wi hin i s eco e y p og amme,
S i Lanka mus na iga e eme ging
global challenges esul ing om he
in oduc ion o US ecip ocal a i s.
I implemen ed as p oposed, hese
a i s would ha e di ec impac s
on a qua e o S i Lanka’s expo s,
while e oding he coun y’s expo
compe i i eness wi h i s i als. Global
ade ensions, policy unce ain ies
and a po en ial down u n in he
wo ld economy u he complica e
S i Lanka’s eco e y ajec o y. These
challenges highligh he complexi ies
o S i Lanka’s p o ec i e ade policy
egime bu also p esen oppo uni ies
o necessa y e o ms.
In ligh o he linge ing e ec s o he
economic c isis and hese ex e nal
p essu es, achie ing ans o ma i e
and sus ained g ow h is c i ical o S i
Lanka. G ow h is essen ial o suppo
he eco e y p og amme ia iscal
consolida ion and deb sus ainabili y.
Fu he mo e, be e iscal spending
deli e s as e g ow h. I would educe
he coun y’s ulne abili y o ex e nal
shocks, helping a e any u u e economic
c isis. G ow h se es as a pa hway o
add ess c isis-induced income losses
and mass po e y le els by c ea ing
jobs and gene a ing incomes. Finally, a
sus ained highe g ow h momen um is
he unde lying equi emen o achie ing
S i Lanka’s ambi ious high-income a ge
wi hin nex 25 yea s.
This epo is s uc u ed as ollows.
Sec ion 2 b ie ly discusses he causes
o he economic c isis. Sec ion 3
e iews he ema kable economic
s abilisa ion S i Lanka has achie ed,
albei wi h g owing isks. Sec ion 4 se s
ou he key ing edien s o and policies
o a g ow h plan. Sec ion 5 discusses
lessons o implemen ing e o ms.
Sec ion 6 concludes. Table ES1 in he
Execu i e Summa y p o ides p oposals
o accele a ing g ow h and educing
po e y in S i Lanka.
3
Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
2 Causes o he economic
c isis
Achie ing highe g ow h in S i Lanka is
a p io i y o he NPP go e nmen , led
by P esiden Anu a Kuma a Dissanayake,
which en e ed o ice in la e 2024 a a
pi o al momen (Wigna aja, 2024a).
S i Lanka is eme ging om i s wo s
pos -Independence economic c isis
(2022–2023), which esul ed in a de aul
on ex e nal deb obliga ions in Ap il
2022 (Basu, 2022; Eas Asia Fo um,
2023). S i Lanka’s public deb o g oss
domes ic p oduc (GDP) a io inc eased
signi ican ly om 84% o 116% be ween
2018 and 2022 (see Figu e 2). The
de aul ollows a 15-yea pe iod du ing
which S i Lanka’s deb p o ile changed
signi ican ly in e ms o composi ion
and isks, including a mo e o less
concessional inancing, loss o access
o in e na ional capi al ma ke s, bigge
bila e al bo owing and a lack o e enue
(Smi h, 2025).
Figu e 2 Public deb as a sha e o GDP (%)
83.6 82.6
96.9 102.7
115.9
110.4
99.4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023e 2024e
No e: e = es ima e
Sou ce: IMF Wo ld Economic Ou look Ap il 2025 da abase
The de aul ep esen ed a de elopmen
se back o S i Lanka, which was o en
ci ed as a ‘basic needs’ success s o y as
ea ly as he 1970s despi e being a poo
coun y (Isenman, 1980). The Wo ld
Bank es ima es he sha e o he
popula ion in po e y (income po e y
measu ed a $3.65 a day) o ha e mo e
han doubled om 11.3% o 27.1%
be ween 2019 and 2023 (see Figu e 3).
4Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
The e e sal in po e y educ ion gains
du ing he c isis has aken S i Lanka
back o he high po e y le els o he
ea ly 2000s.
Figu e 3 Po e y headcoun a io a $3.65 a day, 2017 PPP (% o popula ion)
51.8
49.9 47.6
42.2
29.8
23.8
19.7
13.8 11.3 12.7 13.1
22.7
27.1 24.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1985 1990 1995 2002 2006 2009 2012 2016 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e
No es: e = es ima e. Es ima es o 2020–2024 a e based on Wo ld Bank’s nowcas .
Sou ces: Wo ld De elopmen Indica o s o 1985–2019 da a; Wo ld Bank G oup (2023 o 2020–
2021 da a; Wo ld Bank G oup (2025a) o 2022–2024 da a
Fu he mo e, based on he 2022–2023
Na ional Ci izen Su ey o 25,000
households, he Uni ed Na ions
De elopmen P og amme (UNDP)
es ima es ha 55.7% o he popula ion
in S i Lanka is mul idimensionally
ulne able (UNDP, 2023). This means
ha an eye-ca ching 12.3 million people
a e dep i ed on a leas h ee ou o
he 12 indica o s ha span he c i ical
dimensions o educa ion, heal h, disas e
and li ing s anda ds. Howe e , some
double-coun ing may be in ol ed, leading
o highe - han-expec ed dep a a ion
numbe s.
The causes o his c isis a e complex
and widely deba ed. B oadly speaking,
hey can be ca ego ised in o ex e nal
and in e nal o S i Lanka (Wee asinghe,
2021; Abey a ne, 2023; Wigna aja, 2024b;
A huko ala, 2025; De a ajan, 2025). The
ex e nal ac o s include ex e nal shocks
like he allou om he Eas e Bomb
a acks in 2019, he Co id-19 pandemic,
he Russia–Uk aine c isis and he Red
Sea con lic . The in e nal ac o s include
an inadequa e shi o he economy o
adable p oduc ion and expo g ow h;
comme cial bo owing om China’s
policy banks o a ple ho a o low- e u n
in as uc u e p ojec s (e.g. Hamban o a
Po and Ma ala Ai po ); pe sis ence o
iscal and balance o paymen s de ici s
and acu e economic mismanagemen
du ing 2019–2022 (locally known as
5
Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
‘homeg own solu ions’); lack o a en ion
o p oduc i i y g ow h; and limi ed
accoun abili y o en ep eneu s o
ma ke s and go e nmen s o ci izens.
The e is g owing consensus ha he
in e nal ac o s ha e g ea e explana o y
powe han he ex e nal ones.
P esiden Dissanayake and he
NPP campaigned on a pla o m o
compassiona e and co up ion- ee
go e nance, p omising a clea pa hway
ou o he c isis o all S i Lankans
(NPP, 2024).
6Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
3 Rema kable economic
s abilisa ion – bu isks
emain
S i Lanka’s ecen economic ou look
o e s easons o cau ious op imism
(Wigna aja and e Velde, 2025). Thanks o
p uden mone a y and inancial s abili y
policies by he Cen al Bank o S i Lanka,
a $3 billion ou -yea IMF p og amme and
$4 billion o b idging inance om India,
he economy appea s o ha e s abilised
a e se e e mac oeconomic u bulence
(B eue and Woldemichael, 2025;
Wee asinghe e al., 2025). To his c edi ,
P esiden Dissanayake has commi ed o
he IMF p og amme, bu wi h inc eased
social spending o educe high po e y.
The ecen comple ion o he deb
es uc u ing p ocess also p o ides
much-needed con inui y. A $17.5 billion
deb es uc u ing deal wi h p i a e
bondholde s and China has p o ided
much-needed b ea hing oom, and
a esu gence in ou ism has boos ed
o eign exchange ese es (Minis y o
Finance, Economic S abilisa ion and
Na ional Policies, 2024). Figu e 4 shows
he g adual build up o g oss o icial
ese es (US$) om a his o ic low a
he so e eign de aul in Ap il 2022 and
May 2025. The da a exclude he
People's Bank o China (PBoC) swap,
o iginally signed in 2021, o abou $1.4
billion. The ag eemen was enewed in
Decembe 2024, ex ending he PBoC
swap o ano he h ee yea s. The swap
becomes usable once g oss o eign
ese es ise abo e h ee mon hs o
he p e ious yea 's impo co e .
7
Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
Figu e 4 G oss O icial Rese es, excluding People’s Bank o China Swap
Sou ce: Cen al Bank o S i Lanka
The new go e nmen ’s i s budge , in
mid-Feb ua y 2025, sugges s con inui y
wi h iscal consolida ion and economic
e o m e o s. I highligh s he new
go e nmen ’s p agma ic a emp o
balance mee ing he equi emen s o
he IMF p og amme wi h ul illing i s
manda e o equi able g ow h. The ocus
is on e enue- aising measu es amid
g adual iscal consolida ion, inc eased
spending on social wel a e and educa ion,
e o ms o enhance he digi al economy,
mee ing deb epaymen s and economic
s abili y (Pa liamen o S i Lanka, 2025).
Th ough hese measu es, he new
go e nmen expec s economic g ow h o
5% in he medium e m.
In his en i onmen , he new go e nmen
has inhe i ed a s abilising economy.
Figu e 5 shows ha g ow h picked up
om -2.3% o 5.0% be ween 2023 and
2024. The pick-up con inued in ea ly
2025 wi h g ow h o 4.8% in 2025Q1.
Howe e , IMF o ecas s published a e
he budge p ojec g ow h as slowing
om 4.5% o 3.0% be ween 2024 and
2025 and o emain a ound 3% o he
nex i e yea s ill 2030 (IMF, 2025).
In e es ingly, Wo ld Bank g ow h
o ecas s also poin o g ow h slowing,
om 5.0% in 2024 o 3.5% in 2025 (Wo ld
Bank, 2025b). The oad ahead is s ill
augh wi h unce ain y. The bes way
o o e come his unce ain y is o ha e
a obus g ow h plan in place o add ess
po en ial isks.
7.2
7.6
7.2
5.7
4.5
1.6
0.3 0.5
1.3
3.0
3.9
4.7 5.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
End
Ap
2019
End
Dec
2019
End
Ap
2020
End
Dec
2020
End
Ap
2021
End
Dec
2021
End
Ap
2022
End
Dec
2022
End
Ap
2023
End
Dec
2023
End
Ap
2024
End
Dec
2024
End
May
2025
USD billions
8Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
Figu e 5 S i Lanka’s annual and qua e ly GDP g ow h a es (%)
Sou ce: Cen al Bank o S i Lanka Annual Repo s, a ious yea s
While he economic ou look is posi i e,
he e a e looming isks ha he new
go e nmen mus ackle head-on.
One signi ican isk is ex e nal o S i
Lanka. This ela es o an unp edic able
in e na ional ade policy en i onmen ,
whe ein he US Adminis a ion’s
signa u e a i - aising policies and ough
policies owa ds China and i - o - i
ac ions by ading pa ne s could a ec
he geoeconomics o he Indo-Paci ic
and lead o a ade wa (Takada, 2025).
On 2 Ap il 2025, he US announced 44%
ecip ocal a i s on S i Lanka based
on a o mula inco po a ing a ade
su plus is-à- is he US, na ional ade
ba ie s and exchange a e policy. I
he US implemen s ecip ocal a i s
as announced, S i Lanka is likely o lose
expo compe i i eness, a ec ing a
qua e o i s expo s o he US ma ke .
Addi ionally, he coun y may ace a
disad an age compa ed wi h mos
compe i o na ions, which would be
subjec o lowe ecip ocal a i s han
hose imposed on S i Lanka.
While i is oo ea ly o judge he impac s
on he S i Lankan economy, he o e all
di ec ion will be nega i e on o eign
exchange ea nings, wi h implica ions o
g ow h, jobs and po e y. Some say ha ,
globally, his could be a e u n o a gloomy
1930s global economic scena io o begga -
hy-neighbou a i s and, ul ima ely, a
deep global economic ecession. S i Lanka
needs a mo e esilien app oach o deal
wi h his unce ain in e na ional ade
policy en i onmen .
O he issues a e in e nal o S i Lanka. Fo
ins ance, public deb le els could emain
high (a abou 95% o GDP in 2027 a e
he end o he cu en IMF p og amme)
despi e he es uc u ing deal wi h
p i a e and o icial c edi o s. The e a e
Qua e ly GDP g ow h (%) Annual GDP g ow h (%)
2.3
-0.2
-4.6
4.2
-7.3
-2.3
5
2018 Q1
2018 Q2
2018 Q3
2018 Q4
2019 Q1
2019 Q2
2019 Q3
2019 Q4
2020 Q1
2020 Q2
2020 Q3
2020 Q4
2021 Q1
2021 Q2
2021 Q3
2021 Q4
2022 Q1
2022 Q2
2022 Q3
2022 Q4
2023 Q1
2023 Q2
2022 Q3
2022 Q4
2024 Q1
2024 Q2
2024 Q3
2024 Q4
2025 Q1
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
15
Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
4.3.3 Manu ac u ing
Manu ac u ing, wi hin a conduci e
en i onmen , is pi o al in accele a ing
g ow h o highe le els in he medium
e m and sus aining i o e he long
e m, ul ima ely ansi ioning he
coun y o a high-income s a us. A
conduci e en i onmen encompasses
in eg a ion wi h he global economy,
add essing he ‘small ma ke ’ issue. Such
in eg a ion enables indus ies o expand
and capi alise on economies o scale.
Addi ionally, i a ac s FDI a ge ing
in e na ional ma ke s and global supply
chains. FDI b ings no jus capi al bu
also echnology, managemen expe ise,
p o essionalism and access o inpu and
ou pu ma ke s – os e ing spillo e
bene i s o he hos coun y. Possible
a eas include joining global alue chains
(e.g. high- alue added ex iles and
ga men s, ood p ocessing and niche
manu ac u ing [au o pa s, boa -building
and elec onic componen s]).
Manu ac u ing also acili a es he
ansi ion o excess labou om domes ic
ag icul u e while enhancing inno a ion
and p oduc i i y g ow h in he ag icul u e
sec o . Fu he mo e, i bols e s se ice
sec o g ow h, gene a ing alue addi ions
du ing he manu ac u ing p ocess and
p e en ing he ‘non- adable bias’ in
economic g ow h.
To suppo manu ac u ing e ec i ely,
policies and e o ms mus ocus on
elimina ing ba ie s and imp o ing
compe i i eness. Key ac ions include
he ollowing:
• Simpli y and a ionalise egula ions,
ins i u ions and p ocedu es o c ea e
a mo e conduci e en i onmen o
business ope a ions.
• Ensu e he a ailabili y, a o dabili y
and quali y o inpu s – bo h p ima y
and seconda y – o main ain an
unin e up ed indus ialisa ion p ocess
and in e na ional compe i i eness o
indus ies.
• Re o m c oss-bo de policies and
egula ions while adop ing digi alised
p ocesses and a ‘single window’ sys em
o s eamline ade and in es men
lows.
• Align indus ialisa ion wi h 21s -
cen u y equi emen s by emb acing
sus ainabili y s anda ds and ad anced
digi al p ocesses.
• Expand he go e nmen ’s ole in
h us a eas such as he small and
medium en e p ise sec o , egional
indus ialisa ion and a ge ed
indus ies o os e mo e equi able
g ow h and suppo s a egic
indus ies.
4.3.4 Digi al economy
The digi al economy is eme ging apidly
in S i Lanka and could be on cou se
o con ibu e 12% o GDP by 2030. As
he p esiden ’s budge speech o 2025
shows, he go e nmen ecognises he
ans o ma i e aspec o his sec o .
The cu en ocus is on he p o ision o
digi al public in as uc u e; ex ending
e-go e nmen se ices (e.g. digi isa ion
16 Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
o ax collec ion and cus oms e enue
collec ion) and amewo ks; se ing up
ules o os e inno a ion; and adop ion
o digi al echnologies and digi al
paymen sys ems4 h oughou he
economy. Inc easing digi al awa eness
and skills ac oss he popula ion and
be e cybe secu i y sys ems5 a e
o he impo an aspec s o digi al
economy de elopmen .
4.4 Imp o ed policies o
educe po e y
S i Lanka’s B i ish-s yle wel a e sys em
p o ides ee uni e sal heal hca e
h ough a sys em o public hospi als
and uni e sal educa ion h ough s a e
schools and uni e si ies. S i Lanka
has also implemen ed a ious income
ans e p og ammes, including he
Janasa iya and Samu dhi P og ammes.
Aswesuma, a new cash subsidy
p og amme, has been in place since
2023 and is being imp o ed wi h Wo ld
Bank suppo . I aims a add essing
pos -c isis po e y by ackling he
inhe en weaknesses o he p e ious
cash ans e p og ammes. This
imp o ed, a ge ed and ime-bound
p og amme ope a es on a digi ised
pla o m, wi h bank ans e s as i s
ounda ion. I cu en ly bene i s 2
million people; his each appea s
4 The go e nmen needs o wo k wi h banks and paymen ga eways o nego ia e be e
me chan discoun a es so as o c ea e a le el playing ield o digi al paymen s. Cu en ly,
S i Lanka is epu ed o ha e high me chan discoun a es o as much as 2.5% o 3% o he
cos o goods and se ices. This means ha digi al ansac ions a e ela i ely expensi e
compa ed wi h cash paymen s.
5 This is especially impo an in a wo ld expe iencing a g owing sp ead o new echnologies
such as a i icial in elligence and ising cybe a acks by s a e and non-s a e ac o s.
6 h ps://uidai.go .in/en/
limi ed when compa ed wi h he pos -
c isis mass po e y le el, es ima ed o
be 7–10 million indi iduals.
Recen su eys by he Cen e o
Po e y Analysis (CEPA) sugges ha
Aswesuma could be u he e ined by
add essing exclusion and inclusion e o s
and adop ing mo e ealis ic p oxies
o minimise a ge ing inaccu acies
(CEPA, o hcoming). Despi e he quick
u na ound o he economy since he
c isis and he apid eco e y, he IMF
no es ha social spending con inues o
lag behind expec a ions (IMF, 2025).
In an ideal wo ld, a ge ed cash ans e s
should be in oduced a he onse o an
economic c isis, along wi h a a ioning
o basic ood and uel whe e necessa y.
Eligibili y also should be de e mined
h ough a Unique ID Sys em, and he
bene i s should be ans e ed di ec ly
o he bank accoun s o bene icia ies (as
in he Unique Iden i ica ion Au ho i y
o India’s Aadha Sys em)6 o elimina e
en -seeking and ine iciencies.
Aswesuma will include a Unique ID
Sys em o ensu e be e a ge ing, educe
leakages and expand bank accoun access
o he poo .
Add essing c isis-d i en po e y
equi es a dis inc app oach, as i
17
Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
di e s signi ican ly om po e y unde
no mal ci cums ances. In S i Lanka,
p e-c isis po e y was p edominan ly
a ‘de elopmen issue’, s emming om
indi iduals being excluded om he
mains eam de elopmen p ocess.
In con as , c isis-d i en po e y is a
‘mac oeconomic issue’, igge ed by
ac o s such as economic ins abili y
– deb de aul s, in la ion, in e es a e
hikes and cu ency dep ecia ion – and
economic con ac ion, which esul s in
business closu es, job losses and declining
li elihoods and incomes. In addi ion, he
immedia e policy esponse o he c isis
has inad e en ly exace ba ed po e y
le els, u he complica ing e o s o
mi iga e i s impac .
This dis inc ion unde sco es ha pos -
c isis po e y canno be e ec i ely
add essed h ough social p o ec ion
measu es alone, as hese p o ide only
empo a y elie . Ins ead, he ocus mus
shi o achie ing and sus aining highe
g ow h momen um. By os e ing job
c ea ion and income gene a ion, such
g ow h becomes he co ne s one o
d i ing long- e m economic eco e y and
alle ia ing c isis-d i en po e y.
18 Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
5 Lessons o implemen ing
e o ms
The impo ance o some economic
policies has been known o
some ime. Howe e , S i Lanka’s
de elopmen his o y is eple e wi h
examples o pa ial and inconsis en
implemen a ion o economic policies,
and his has cons ained he coun y’s
g ow h pe o mance. This sec ion
looks a he six h policy a ea – o
implemen ing he i s i e g ow h
policies – namely, how o build poli ical
consensus and s a e capaci y.
I can be a gued ha lack o ull and
e ec i e policy implemen a ion owes
la gely o:
1. a lack o a poli ical consensus o e he
di ec ion o economic policy
2. weak s a e capaci y and poli ical
incen i es
3. a lack o p ojec moni o ing.
5.1 A lack o poli ical
consensus
A poli ical economic iewpoin sugges s
ha he oo s o he cu en economic
c isis in S i Lanka lie in he lack o poli ical
consensus on a clea and consis en
de elopmen s a egy. Since he 1960s,
S i Lanka has seen a se ies o epea ing
cycles cha ac e ised by cons an policy
e e sals, which ha e b ed economic
ins abili y and unce ain y. S i Lanka
pu sued inwa d-looking impo
subs i u ion policies in he 1960s and
1970s. This is pe haps a ibu able o
lack o poli ical consensus on e o ms
igge ed by es ed in e es s; o many
yea s, he e was a ension among hose
who eme ged a e he ‘1956 Re olu ion’,
which ga e p ominence o inwa d-
looking na ionalis - hinking policies. The
upsho was an economy cha ac e ised
by low in es men , low g ow h and high
unemploymen . This mean , in u n,
ha S i Lanka was no able o eplica e
he economic success o expo -led
neighbou s in Eas and Sou heas Asia.
By 1977, he coun y was ipe
o economic e o m. The 1977
pa liamen a y elec ions esul ed in
a Uni ed Na ional Pa y go e nmen
commi ed o ex ensi e policy e o ms
o c ea e an economy mo e o ien ed
o in e na ional ade and ma ke s. The
package o policy e o ms included ade
policy libe alisa ion, iscal policy e o m,
elimina ion o p ice con ols, inancial
libe alisa ion, public en e p ise e o m
and indus ial policy e o m. The policy
e o ms in oduced in 1977 ocused on
c ea ing mo e app op ia e incen i es and
s eng hening he amewo k o p i a e
sec o de elopmen . The objec i e
was o shi he emphasis away om
p oduc ion o he domes ic ma ke o
expo s. Howe e , he momen um o
e o ms soon s alled owing o a lack
o poli ical will o deepen s uc u al
19
Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
e o ms in p oduc (e.g. e o ms o
SOE and domes ic compe i ion) and
ac o ma ke s (e.g. land, labou and
capi al). Indeed, a lack o consensus on
he di ec ion o he coun y’s ade and
g ow h s a egies o e he decades has
also con ibu ed o he cu en economic
p edicamen .
A consensus on a new i e-yea ision
o na ional economic de elopmen
should be eached among poli ical
pa ies, business o ganisa ions, ade
unions and ci il socie y (Cooma aswamy
and Wigna aja, 2023). Con e ences
and semina s co-hos ed by hink anks
and he media can acili a e candid
con e sa ions on he me i s o inwa d-
e sus ou wa d-looking policies in an
unce ain global economy, and wha
could be c edible sou ces o economic
g ow h and ans o ma ion. A eas o
ag eemen should be codi ied in o a
eadable na ional economic de elopmen
ision documen o he nex decade
ou lining:
• economic de elopmen achie emen s
and ailu es
7 Su p isingly, he e a e e y ew s udies on he e ec i eness o s a e capaci y o public
policy managemen in S i Lanka. One ea ly s udy is Wanasinghe and Guna a na (1996).
• ealis ic a ge s o economic
de elopmen including in es men and
p oduc i i y change
• an ou wa d-o ien ed, ma ke - iendly
policy agenda
• isks o implemen a ion
To aise public awa eness o he na ional
ision o economic de elopmen ,
na ionwide ou each ac i i ies should be
conduc ed. O en ci ed success s o ies o
Ko ea, Malaysia, Singapo e, Thailand, Vie
Nam, he Uni ed A ab Emi a es and India
o e p ac ical lessons in c a ing and
implemen ing such na ional isions o
economic de elopmen .
5.2 Weak s a e capaci y
A ela ed conce n is ha ing he equisi e
legisla i e and echnical capaci y o
enac he c i ical/c ucial economic
e o ms, as well as good o e sigh .7
On o e sigh , many ecen pa liamen s
ha e had a mixed expe ience. Some say
he e is a end owa ds pa liamen s
wi h la ge coho s o un es ed i s -
ime ep esen a i es, which has aised
conce ns abou he legisla i e and
20 Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
echnical capaci y in place o enac he
economic e o ms S i Lanka so despe a ely
needs. Fu he mo e, ec ui men o
he ci il se ice is usually om among
g adua es om a a ie y o disciplines, and
he main mode o aining is on he job.
The Cen al Bank o S i Lanka p o ides
oppo uni ies o mid-ca ee p o essionals
o pu sue g adua e s udies in economics
and ela ed subjec s in o e seas uni e si ies
and con inuous lea ning h ough sho -
e m aining, which has imp o ed he
ins i u ion’s echnical capaci y and
suppo ed ca ee ad ancemen . Howe e ,
his p ac ice o suppo ing o eign
g adua e-le el aining does no apply o
many o he s a e ins i u ions. Ins ead, he e
is a hea y eliance on s a e ins i u ions
(which may lack inance and acul y) o
dono - unded ad hoc sho cou ses o
p o ide o mal aining.
As such, he go e nmen mus p io i ise
public sec o se ice deli e y, e ain key
alen wi hin he s a e sec o and c ea e
policies ha encou age he de elopmen
o expe ise in go e nance and public
adminis a ion. Imp o ed planning
o unde ake ma ke -o ien ed public
policies, digi isa ion o public se ices,
aining o legisla o s and unde s anding
he complexi ies o economic e o ms,
a e also c ucial. Es ablishing a s a e-o -
he-a public policy aining ins i u e
o capaci y-building o legisla o s and
senio adminis a o s would be a aluable
addi ion o S i Lanka’s uni e si y ne wo k.
5.3 Limi ed p ojec moni o ing
Mos de elopmen p ojec s in S i Lanka
ha e ailed o deli e hei in ended
bene i s in a imely manne o he
public, o a ious easons, such
as lack o p epa edness, delays in
p ocu emen s, poo pe o mance o
con ac o s, delays in ecei ing hi d-
pa y clea ance, insu icien alloca ions,
suspension o loan disbu semen s
and poo p ojec managemen . I
de elopmen p ojec s a e o be
e ec i ely implemen ed, hey need
o be endo sed by he highes le els
o go e nmen in o de o ensu e
conc e e ac ion. A s ong leade
o poli ical champion will ha e he
abili y o push he p ocess ahead.
Coope a ion be ween minis ies,
high-le el o icials and he a ious
s akeholde s is indispensable.
P ojec moni o ing is c ucial o
go e nmen p ojec s as i ensu es
accoun abili y, anspa ency and
e icien esou ce alloca ion. A
moni o ing amewo k helps in acking
p og ess, iden i ying issues and making
in o med decisions, ul ima ely leading o
be e p ojec ou comes and inc eased
public us .
Mos p ojec managemen sys ems
in ol e a a ie y o p ocesses h ough
which p ojec s a e implemen ed.
Such sys ems can be di ided in o i e
main ca ego ies: ini ia ing, planning,
execu ing, moni o ing and con olling,
and closing. Each ca ego y comp ises
se e al sepa a e p ocesses; o en,
i is necessa y o upda e o add
in o ma ion on a pa icula s age o he
p ojec managemen sys em. P ojec
managemen is a con inuous p ocess,
equi ing app op ia e changes o wo k
21
Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
conduc ed p e iously and plans in line
wi h end objec i es/goals. Mo eo e ,
p ojec scope managemen includes
ac ions gua an eeing he iden i ica ion
and inclusion o ac i i ies necessa y
o c ea e he p ojec p oduc and i s
success ul comple ion.
5.4 Key ac ions o e ec i e
implemen a ion
This sec ion discusses o ganisa ional
inno a ions which can suppo e ec i e
implemen ing o e o ms sugges ed in
Table ES1.
• Es ablish a commi ee o sec e a ies o
de elopmen minis ies, chai ed by he
sec e a y o he p esiden , o imp o e
consis ency and p edic abili y o
policy-making as well as o s eng hen
p io i y-se ing and coo dina ion o
implemen a ion.
• Es ablish a na ional ope a ions oom
o a policy implemen a ion and
moni o ing di ision in he P esiden ial
Sec e a ia unde he pu iew o a
senio addi ional sec e a y o he
p esiden , o he moni o ing o all
policies, p og ammes and p ojec s, and
ensu e imely implemen a ion and he
achie emen o desi ed a ge s.
• Se up a igo ous p ocess o
onboa ding p ojec s in acco dance
wi h na ional economic p io i ies.
Conside he impo ance o selec ing
high-p io i y/mega-scale de elopmen
p ojec s, in line wi h he needs o he
people, and implemen he p ojec s
e icien ly and e ec i ely, including by
es ablishing a high-le el commi ee,
chai ed by he p ime minis e o
a senio minis e , o p io i ise and
o e see egional de elopmen
p ojec s, such as:
– p ojec s implemen ed unde he
Decen alised Capi al Budge
P og amme
– p ojec s implemen ed by cabine
minis ies
– p ojec s implemen ed by p o incial
councils.
– o eign unded p ojec s
• No e: A senio addi ional sec e a y
o he p esiden will unc ion as he
sec e a y and con eno o his high-
le el commi ee.
• Es ablish a p ojec moni o ing
commi ee o moni o he p og ess
o he p io i ised la ge-scale p ojec s
(o e Rs 1,000 million) o ensu e
hei imely implemen a ion and he
achie emen o a ge s, chai ed by
a senio addi ional sec e a y o he
p esiden . Membe s o his commi ee
should include he di ec o s gene al o
he ollowing:
– Depa men o Ex e nal Resou ces
– Depa men o Na ional Planning
– Depa men o P ojec Managemen
and Moni o ing
– Depa men o Na ional Budge
– Depa men o T easu y Ope a ions
• No e: An addi ional sec e a y o
he p esiden , may unc ion as he
sec e a y and con eno o he p ojec
moni o ing commi ee.
22 Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
Public o icials who ha e been in ol ed in
s a egic ade and in es men e o s in
p e ious yea s mus be b ough in om
ac oss he ci il se ice, as hey possess
ins i u ional memo y, echnical expe ise
and p ac ical insigh s (CSF, 2025).
The go e nmen should engage he
expe ise a ailable in he coun y and
ensu e an inclusi e and anspa en
p ocess o dialogue and consul a ion.
Ad iso y commi ees and special wo king
g oups, when appoin ed, should be
uly ep esen a i e o all sec o s/
s akeholde s in he ele an ields.
All commi ees and wo king g oups
should ha e ac ion-o ien ed e ms o
e e ence wi h ime-bound deli e ables
and pe iodic p og ess epo ing o he
app op ia e au ho i ies. (See Appendix
2 o mo e de ails on good p ac ice
p ojec moni o ing.)
23
Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
6 A las wo d
S i Lanka s ands a a c oss oads and he
wo ld is wa ching. The new go e nmen
has made a p omising s a . The e has
been imp essi e s abilisa ion o he
economy. The IMF p og amme is on
ack and he complex nego ia ions on
deb es uc u ing ha e been comple ed
success ully. Abo e all, he e is now a new
pa adigm o mac oeconomic policy-
making, wi h clea amewo ks ha a e
embedded in laws. Fiscal ules ha e been
igh ened and he channels o iscal
o bea ance in mone a y policy ha e
been elimina ed, wi h g ea e au onomy
o he Cen al Bank o S i Lanka. Unde
his new egime, he exchange a e
will be managed lexibly. The epea ing
bou s o mac oeconomic s ess should
hope ully be a ma e o he pas . Taking
s eps o imp o e he so e eign a ing and
business con idence is essen ial o a ac
much-needed FDI.
Howe e , he e a e s ill o midable
challenges ahead in achie ing inclusi e
and ans o ma i e g ow h in hese
unce ain global economic imes. A ‘big
bang’ app oach o s uc u al e o ms is
equi ed o ans o m he economy,
s eng hen and di e si y i s p oduc ion
base and he eby aise g ow h om
3% o a sus ained 5% o e he nex
i e yea s. We hink 5% g ow h is he
minimum necessa y o a oid ano he
deb es uc u ing in 2027/28, wi h
mo e aus e i y. G ow h accele a ion
is also needed o make ma e ial
headway in e e sing he sha p
inc ease in po e y and ulne abili y
ha has occu ed in S i Lanka. Fo
his, he commi men in he budge
speech o implemen he Economic
T ans o ma ion Ac (wi h amendmen s)
mus be gi en e ec wi h he u mos
u gency. This g ow h plan cha s
pa hways o doing his e ec i ely. I
also ad oca es building s a e capaci y
o e ec i e implemen a ion.
Success ul ou comes will equi e
p agma ic leade ship, bold policy
decisions, a clea ision o S i Lanka’s
u u e p ospe i y and suppo om
de elopmen pa ne s. Now is he
ime o such leade ship o g asp he
oppo uni ies o ans o ma i e g ow h
and a oid sliding back in o ano he
mac oeconomic c isis.
24 Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
Re e ences
Abey a ne, S. (2023) ‘Economic c isis in S i Lanka: he way-in and he way-ou ’. S i
Lanka Economic Jou nal 20: 1–16
Abey a ne, S. (2025) ‘Tou ism: pe ils o playing i by ea !’ Sunday Times, 30 Ma ch
(www.sunday imes.lk/250330/business- imes/ ou ism-pe ils-o -playing-i -by-
ea -2-593418.h ml).
Ama aseka a, C. and Venuganan, P. (2021) ‘Compa a i e e iew o he human
capi al de elopmen jou neys o Vie nam and S i Lanka’. Vie nam Jou nal o
Indian and Asian S udies 9(106): 14–27.
A huko ala, P. (2025) ‘The S i Lankan economy: om op imism o deb ap’.
Wo king Pape 2025-1-3. Tokyo: Japan Cen e o Economic Resea ch.
Basu, K. (2022) ‘Why S i Lanka imploded., P ojec Syndica e, 20 July (www.
p ojec -syndica e.o g/commen a y/s i-lanka-why-i -has-collapsed-by-kaushik-
basu-2022-07).
B eue , P. and Woldemichael, M. T. (2025) ‘S i Lanka’s economic e o m p og am
is deli e ing—keep going o a ull eco e y’. IMF Op-Ed, 25 Ma ch (www.im .
o g/en/News/A icles/2025/03/25/032525-b eue -and-woldemichael-oped-s i-
lanka-economic- e o m-p og am-is-deli e ing).
CEPA – Cen e o Po e y Analysis ( o hcoming) ‘C isis-d i en po e y
dynamics in S i Lanka’. Colombo: CEPA.
Cooma aswamy, I. and Wigna aja, G (2023) ‘Wha can we lea n om S i Lanka’s
deb de aul ?’ LSE Blog, 16 Oc obe (h ps://blogs.lse.ac.uk/sou hasia/2023/10/16/
wha -can-we-lea n- om-s i-lankas-deb -de aul /).
CSF – Cen e o a Sma Fu u e (2025) ‘Responding o global economic
challenges: eigh p io i y ade and compe i i eness e o ms o S i Lanka’.
Policy No e, 15 Ap il (www.cs -asia.o g/wp-con en /uploads/2025/04/CSF-Policy-
No e_Eigh -P io i y-T ade-and-Compe i i eness-Re o ms-S i-Lanka_15042025.
pd ).
De a ajan, S. (2025), ‘Accoun abili y: he key o sus ained and inclusi e g ow h in
S i Lanka’ in G. Wigna aja and D.W. e Velde (eds) S i Lanka: om deb de aul o
ans o ma i e g ow h. Second edi ion. London: ODI Global.
Eas Asia Fo um (2023) ‘In S i Lanka, economic necessi y collides wi h poli ical
eali y’. Eas Asia Fo um, 18 Decembe (h ps://eas asia o um.o g/2023/12/18/in-
s i-lanka-economic-necessi y-collides-wi h-poli ical- eali y/).
31
Sus aining ans o ma i e g ow h in S i Lanka 2025–2030
• quali y: assessing he quali y o deli e ables and ensu ing hey mee expec a ions
• isks: iden i ying and mi iga ing po en ial h ea s o p ojec success
• s akeholde communica ion: main aining open and e ec i e communica ion wi h all
s akeholde s
Moni o ing me hods
Moni o ing is a c ucial componen in p ojec managemen , esea ch and a ious
ields ha equi e sys ema ic acking o ac i i ies and ou comes. I in ol es he
egula collec ion, analysis and use o in o ma ion o ensu e a p ojec o p og amme
is on ack o achie e i s goals. Di e en ypes o moni o ing me hods se e a ious
pu poses, each p o iding unique insigh s and da a ha can d i e e ec i e decision-
making. Key moni o ing me hods a e s a ed below:
• egula mee ings: p ojec s a us mee ings, s ee ing commi ee mee ings
• p og ess epo s: w i en epo s, dashboa ds, p esen a ions
• key pe o mance indica o s: key me ics ha measu e p ojec pe o mance
• issue acking sys ems: ools o iden i ying and esol ing issues
• isk egis e s: ools o iden i ying, assessing and mi iga ing p ojec isks
Bes p ac ices
Bes p ac ices in moni o ing and e alua ion a e essen ial o ensu e he success o any
p ojec o p og amme. The p ocess o moni o ing and e alua ion helps highligh any
a eas ha need a en ion o any changes ha need o be made o ensu e he desi ed
ou comes a e achie ed. Mo eo e , an e ec i e moni o ing and e alua ion p ocess can
p o ide mo e accu a e and imely da a o in o m decision-making. By ollowing hese
bes p ac ices, o ganisa ions can ensu e he moni o ing and e alua ion p ocess is
success ul and helps hem each hei goals. These p ac ices include:
• es ablish a clea moni o ing plan: de ine wha o moni o , how o moni o and who is
esponsible
• use a da a-d i en app oach: collec and analyse da a objec i ely o in o m decisions
• egula ly e iew and adjus : con inuously e ine he moni o ing p ocess based on
eedback and lessons lea ned
• in ol e s akeholde s: keep s akeholde s in o med and engaged h oughou he
moni o ing p ocess
• ocus on con inuous imp o emen : use moni o ing da a o iden i y a eas o
imp o emen and enhance u u e p ojec s
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o inspi e people o ac
on injus ice and inequali y.
Th ough esea ch, con ening
and in luencing, we gene a e
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and he plane .
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S i Lanka s ands a a c oss oads. Ha ing eme ged om i s wo s economic c isis since independence,
he coun y aces he dual challenge o main aining ha d-won mac oeconomic s abili y while
igni ing ans o ma i e g ow h. This epo , a collabo a i e e o by ODI Global and he Cen e
o Po e y Analysis (CEPA), o e s a c ucial oadmap o na iga ing his complex landscape. While
ecen s abilisa ion e o s ha e yielded posi i e esul s, including enewed g ow h and educed
in la ion, po e y le els emain ala mingly high. This s udy a gues ha con inued s uc u al e o ms
a e essen ial o a e u u e c ises and unlock S i Lanka’s as po en ial. By ocusing on six key
policy a eas – mac oeconomic s abili y, global supply chain in eg a ion, imp o ed ac o ma ke s,
a ge ed sec o al policies, po e y educ ion and consensus-building – S i Lanka can capi alise
on oppo uni ies in ou ism, he digi al economy, niche manu ac u ing and ag icul u e o achie e
sus ainable and inclusi e g ow h be ween 2025 and 2030.
