Kuma , Pa een; Mo idian, Ali; Rădulescu, Magdalena; Ma ga i a, Ilinca
A icle
The impac o o eign di ec in es men on expo s: A
s udy o selec ed coun ies in he CESEE egion
Economies
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Sugges ed Ci a ion: Kuma , Pa een; Mo idian, Ali; Rădulescu, Magdalena; Ma ga i a, Ilinca (2025) :
The impac o o eign di ec in es men on expo s: A s udy o selec ed coun ies in he CESEE
egion, Economies, ISSN 2227-7099, MDPI, Basel, Vol. 13, Iss. 6, pp. 1-25,
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Ci a ion: Kuma , P., Mo idian, A.,
Radulescu, M., & Ma ga i a, I. (2025).
The Impac o Fo eign Di ec
In es men on Expo s: A S udy o
Selec ed Coun ies in he CESEE
Region. Economies,13(6), 150.
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A icle
The Impac o Fo eign Di ec In es men on Expo s: A S udy o
Selec ed Coun ies in he CESEE Region
Pa een Kuma 1, Ali Mo idian 2, Magdalena Radulescu 3,4,5,6,* and Ilinca Ma ga i a 6
1Depa men o Humani ies and Social Science, Na ional Ins i u e o Technology Ku ukshe a,
Ku ukshe a 136119, India; [email p o ec ed]
2Depa men o Economics and Managemen , U imia Uni e si y, U mia 57179-44514, I an;
[email p o ec ed]
3Depa men o Finance, Accoun ing and Economics, Na ional Uni e si y o Science and Technology
Poli ehnica Bucha es , 060042 Bucha es , Romania
4BEU-Scien i ic Resea ch Cen e , Baku Enginee ing Uni e si y, Hasan Aliye S ., 120,
Khi dalan Ci y AZ0101, Aze baijan
5UNEC Resea ch Me hods Applica ion Cen e , Aze baijan S a e Uni e si y o Economics (UNEC),
Is iqlaliyya S . 6, Baku 1001, Aze baijan
6Ins i u e o Doc o al and Pos doc o al S udies, Uni e si y Lucian Blaga o Sibiu, 550024 Sibiu, Romania;
[email p o ec ed]o
*Co espondence: [email p o ec ed]o
Abs ac : The e ol ing mac oeconomic landscape, shaped by he global inancial c isis
and he COVID-19 pandemic, poses signi ican challenges o economies wo ldwide. How-
e e , Cen al, Eas e n, and Sou heas e n Eu opean (CESEE) coun ies ha e demons a ed
esilience and apid eco e y du ing c ises, d i en by a su ge in consump ion ueled by
domes ic c edi and obus expo g ow h suppo ed by lexible exchange a es and adap-
i e mone a y policies. P io o EU accession, subs an ial o eign di ec in es men (FDI)
du ing p i a iza ion and es uc u ing acili a ed knowledge and echnology ans e s
in CESEE economies. This s udy examines he in e play o expo s, eal exchange a es,
GDP g ow h, FDI, in la ion, domes ic c edi , and he human de elopmen index (HDI)
in he CESEE egion om 1995 o 2022, co e ing he ansi ion pe iod, EU accession, and
majo c ises. Employing a panel ARDL model, we accoun o asymme ic e ec s o hese
a iables on expo s. The esul s e eal ha GDP, FDI, in la ion, domes ic c edi , and HDI
signi ican ly and posi i ely in luence expo s, wi h HDI and GDP exe ing he s onges
e ec s, unde sco ing he pi o al oles o human capi al and economic g ow h in enhancing
expo compe i i eness. Con e sely, eal exchange a e dep ecia ion nega i ely impac s ex-
po s, hough non-p ice ac o s, such as p oduc quali y, mi iga e his e ec . These indings
p o ide a obus basis o a ge ed policy measu es o s eng hen economic esilience and
expo pe o mance in he CESEE egion.
Keywo ds: FDI; eal exchange a e; GDP; in la ion; domes ic c edi ; expo ; CESEE coun ies
JEL Classi ica ion: C01; E31; F14; F21
1. In oduc ion
The Eu opean Union’s economic compe i i eness is acing moun ing challenges, espe-
cially wi hin i s Cen al, Eas e n, and Sou h-Eas e n (CESEE) membe s a es (Fe azzi e al.,
2025). P io o he 2008 global economic and inancial c isis, he CESEE egion expe ienced
a pe iod o obus economic g ow h. Rapid GDP expansion was d i en by s ong domes ic
consump ion, ueled by accessible c edi , signi ican o eign di ec in es men (FDI), and
Economies 2025,13, 150 h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies13060150
Economies 2025,13, 150 2 o 25
g owing expo s. Op imism su ounding EU membe ship and po en ial eu o adop ion
u he ampli ied his momen um. When he global c isis hi in 2008, he CESEE egion
demons a ed no able esilience, achie ing a swi eco e y. Howe e , ulne abili ies in
he ex e nal and banking sec o s exposed ce ain economic weaknesses (Ga do & Ma in,
2010). F om Sep embe 2008, he c isis in ensi ied, disp opo iona ely a ec ing he mos
ulne able coun ies. Declining domes ic demand in he CESEE egion s emmed om de e-
io a ing labo ma ke s, educed income p ospec s, slowing emi ances, waning business
and consume con idence, and igh e c edi condi ions. Consequen ly, he composi ion
o GDP g ow h shi ed signi ican ly, pa icula ly in he c isis’s ea ly s ages. G oss ixed
capi al o ma ion, a cyclical componen sensi i e o unding a ailabili y, saw sha p declines,
especially in he Bal ics, Romania, and Bulga ia, whe e in es men had p e iously su ged.
P i a e consump ion also slowed, wi h he Bal ic S a es and Romania mos a ec ed due o
hei eliance on c edi -d i en consump ion g ow h. Domes ic c edi in he CESEE egion
expanded s eadily un il he 2008 c isis, a e which g ow h s abilized h ough 2022 wi h
minimal luc ua ions. Czechia, Poland, and Bulga ia led in c edi g ow h, hough Bulga ia
aced a signi ican con ac ion du ing he ansi ion pe iod, and Czechia expe ienced a
decline in he 1990s (see Figu e 1).
Figu e 1. T end o Domes ic c edi o p i a e sec o pe cen age o GDP in CESEE coun ies. Sou ce:
Elabo a ed by he au ho s based on Wo ld Bank da a. No e: The a iable is in loga i hmic o m.
The CESEE coun ies eco e om he mos se e e ecession since hei ansi ion
o ma ke -o ien ed economies (Sch eine ,2022). Since he second hal o 2009, nea ly all
na ions expe ience posi i e qua e -on-qua e GDP g ow h a es. Howe e , he pace and
obus ness o economic eco e y a y signi ican ly ac oss coun ies. Poland, he Czech
Republic, and Es onia emba k on hei eco e y ea lie and demons a e mo e esilien
ebounds (EU Repo ,2023). In con as , Hunga y, La ia, Li huania, Bulga ia, and Romania
ini ia e hei eco e y la e (Eu opean Cen al Bank,2010). As illus a ed in Figu e 2, CESEE
coun ies o m a cohesi e g oup in e ms o economic g ow h a es (GDP pe capi a) om
1995 o 2022. The Czech Republic leads, ollowed closely by Poland and Hunga y.
Economies 2025,13, 150 3 o 25
Figu e 2. T end o GDP pe capi a in CESEE coun ies. Sou ce: Elabo a ed by he au ho s based on
Wo ld Bank da a. No e: The a iable is in loga i hmic o m.
The CESEE egion eco ds ema kable economic p og ess, achie ing a cumula i e
117% g ow h in GDP pe capi a om 1995 o 2017, compa ed o jus 27% o majo EU
economies (Ge many, F ance, I aly, Spain, and he UK) (Eu opean Cen al Bank,2020).
This g ow h signi ican ly na ows he economic gap wi h Wes e n Eu ope, posi ioning
CESEE economies as highly a ac i e ma ke s o in es o s. Indus ies such as au omo i e
and manu ac u ing, subs an ial FDI, dynamic expo g ow h, compe i i e wages, and EU
inancial unds d i e his economic su ge (Ban & Adascali ei,2022;Fid muc & Ma in,
2011;Med e-Bálin & Él e ˝o,2024). Howe e , hese compe i i e ad an ages weaken
o e ime. FDI declines ollowing he comple ion o p i a iza ion p ocesses, and ising
wages e ode cos ad an ages. Global iscal compe i ion in ensi ies, challenging e o s o
a ac o eign in es o s (Kuma e al.,2024a). Labo p oduc i i y lags behind Wes e n
Eu ope, and low unemploymen a es in he CESEE egion signal limi ed labo ese es
compa ed o he b oade EU. Addi ionally, hese economies emain unde capi alized in
e ms o capi al s ock, and EU unding alloca ions end downwa d pos -2020 (Ma ciniak
e al.,2018). Amid ongoing global economic, en i onmen al, and poli ical dis up ions, he
concep o de elopmen e ol es o add ess eme ging challenges, including po e y, social
exclusion, aging popula ions, esou ce deple ion, en i onmen al c ises, globaliza ion, and
poli ical ins abili y (Kuma e al.,2024b). These in e connec ed issues highligh he need
o comp ehensi e, holis ic solu ions (Radulescu e al.,2018).
A he hea o a de eloped economy lies sus ained economic p og ess, which enables
esou ce alloca ion o enhance wel a e and main ain high li ing s anda ds h ough s a egic
public in es men s in c i ical sec o s (Hunj a e al.,2023;Kuma e al.,2024a). As global
challenges like globaliza ion, esou ce cons ain s, and demog aphic shi s in ensi y, he
CESEE egion mus p oac i ely shape i s u u e. His o ical e idence om ecen decades
demons a es ha high g ow h a es and success ul ca ch-up by less- o medium-de eloped
Economies 2025,13, 150 4 o 25
small economies closely ie o expo -o ien ed de elopmen s a egies. Since 1990, CE-
SEE na ions ac i ely emo e ba ie s o FDI by easing ma ke access and o e ing iscal
incen i es. These e o s a ac FDI, which d i es knowledge sha ing and echnological
ad ancemen s. Concu en ly, he egion expe iences inc eased ade openness, p i a i-
za ion o s a e-owned en e p ises, a shi om socialis o ma ke -d i en economies, and
he es ablishmen o democ a ic go e nance amewo ks (Rădulescu & ¸Se bănescu,2012).
O e he pas wo decades, CESEE coun ies signi ican ly expand hei p esence in global
ma ke s. Be ween 1995 and 2014, Bulga ia’s sha e o wo ld expo s ises om 0.1% o
0.2%, he Czech Republic’s om 0.4% o 0.9%, Hunga y’s om 0.2% o 0.6%, Poland’s
om 0.4% o 1.1%, Romania’s om 0.2% o 0.4%, and Slo akia’s om 0.2% o 0.5% (Bie u
& Kuziemska,2016). CESEE coun ies eme ge as a key d i e o EU economic g ow h,
ou pacing Wes e n Eu ope in expo g ow h. F om 2010 o 2020, CESEE goods expo s
su ge by 53% and se ices expo s by 49%, compa ed o Wes e n Eu ope’s modes inc eases
o 15% and 9%, espec i ely. Poland leads he CESEE egion wi h he highes le els o
goods and se ices expo s, ollowed by Czechia and Hunga y o goods expo s, and
Romania o se ices expo s. Slo akia also plays a signi ican ole in goods expo s, while
Bulga ia emains a smalle con ibu o in bo h goods and se ices (CCS,2022). Despi e
hese achie emen s, challenges pe sis , pa icula ly o he Czech Republic, which g apples
wi h he Russia–Uk aine con lic , in la iona y p essu es, supply chain dis up ions, and pe -
sis en budge de ici s. Risks o heigh ened in la ion and iscal de ici s exceeding p ojec ions
loom la ge. Ac oss he CESEE egion, expo s as a sha e o GDP e lec a cohesi e g oup,
wi h a s eady upwa d end om 1995 o 2022, led by Hunga y and Czechia (Figu e 3).
Figu e 3. T end in Expo s o Goods and se ices in CESEE coun ies. Sou ce: Elabo a ed by he
au ho s based on Wo ld Bank da a. No e: The a iable is in loga i hmic o m.
Fo eign di ec in es men (FDI) ends emain s able ac oss he in es iga ed pe iod,
wi h minimal luc ua ions, excep in Hunga y, whe e ne in lows as a pe cen age o GDP
Economies 2025,13, 150 5 o 25
show signi ican posi i e and nega i e swings (see Figu e 4). Poland a ac s subs an ial
FDI un il he 2008 c isis, while o he CESEE coun ies o m a ela i ely uni o m g oup.
Figu e 4. T end o o eign di ec in es men CESEE coun ies. Sou ce: Elabo a ed by he au ho s
based on Wo ld Bank da a.
This pape closely aligns wi h p io empi ical esea ch, including s udies by Beck
(2003), Capo ale e al. (2022), Jakši´c (2022), Leibo ici (2021), and Mano a (2013). These
wo ks explo e he ela ionship be ween inancial de elopmen and he scale o in e na ional
ade ac oss a ious sec o s. They show ha well-de eloped inancial ma ke s co ela e
wi h highe ade olumes, especially in inance- ela ed indus ies. Despi e subs an ial
esea ch on he economic esilience and expo pe o mance o CESEE coun ies, c i ical
gaps pe sis in unde s anding he complex in e play among FDI, inancial de elopmen ,
eal exchange a es, and expo s. P io s udies, such as Beck (2003), Capo ale e al. (2022)
and Mano a (2013), es ablish ha obus inancial ma ke s enhance ade olumes, ye hey
p ima ily ocus on global ade pa e ns o speci ic sec o s, o en o e looking he CESEE
egion’s dis inc pos - ansi ion and c isis- eco e y dynamics. Al hough exis ing li e a u e
ecognizes FDI’s con ibu ions o echnology ans e and economic g ow h du ing he
CESEE’s p i a iza ion and EU accession phases, i a ely examines FDI’s he e ogeneous
e ec s on expo s ac oss a ying le els o expo pe o mance. Fu he mo e, he combined
in luence o eal exchange a es and inancial de elopmen on expo dynamics emains
unde explo ed, pa icula ly in he con ex o lexible mone a y policies and ex e nal shocks
induced by c ises like he 2008 inancial c isis and he COVID-19 pandemic. The absence o
causali y be ween FDI and expo s, as iden i ied in his s udy, highligh s ano he o e looked
a ea, as mos esea ch assumes a di ec ela ionship wi hou igo ously es ing di ec ional
linkages. This s udy add esses hese gaps by in es iga ing he e ec s o FDI, inancial
de elopmen , domes ic c edi and eal exchange a es on expo s in i e CESEE coun ies—
Poland, Romania, Hunga y, he Czech Republic, and Bulga ia—using da a om 1995
Economies 2025,13, 150 6 o 25
o 2022, spanning hei ansi ion, EU accession, and c isis pe iods. These coun ies,
all EU membe s bu no pa o he eu ozone, demons a e g ea e esilience and as e
economic eco e y compa ed o eu ozone coun e pa s, aising ques ions abou he ole
o hei au onomous mone a y and exchange a e policies and inancial de elopmen in
d i ing expo -led g ow h. Unlike p io s udies, his esea ch accoun s o coin eg a ion,
c oss-sec ional dependence, and he asymme ic impac s o hese a iables on expo s,
by employing Panel ARDL o cap u e hei he e ogeneous e ec s ac oss di e en le els
o expo pe o mance. By doing so, i p o ides a nuanced unde s anding o how FDI,
inancial de elopmen , and exchange a es shape expo dynamics in he CESEE egion,
o e ing e idence-based policy ecommenda ions o enhance economic esilience and
expo pe o mance.
The pape is s uc u ed as ollows: Sec ion 2p o ides a concise o e iew o ele an
li e a u e, while Sec ion 3ou lines he me hodology employed. Sec ion 4add esses he
indings, ollowed by Sec ion 5, which o e s concluding ema ks and u he discussion.
2. Li e a u e Re iew
2.1. Theo e ical F ame Wo k
The expo -led g ow h heo y posi s ha sus ained economic p ospe i y depends on
a ib an expo sec o , a p inciple pa icula ly c ucial o de eloping economies whe e
FDI and inancial de elopmen o en ancho s de elopmen . To elucida e he dynamic
ela ionship be ween FDI and expo g ow h in CESEE egion, he g a i y model p o ides
a sophis ica ed amewo k, inspi ed by New on’s law o g a i a ion (Linde s,2006). This
model connec s ade and FDI lows o he economic “mass” o na ions, measu ed by
GDP, which e lec s ma ke po en ial and p oduc ion capaci y. Ini ially applied o ade by
Tinbe gen (1962) and Linnemann (1966), he model’s ea ly empi ical success ou s ipped
i s heo e ical igo , p omp ing schola ly e inemen s. Ande son (1979) g ounded i in
mic oeconomic p inciples, Be gs and (1985) inco po a ed supply-side dynamics, Helpman
and K ugman (1985) linked i o economies o scale, and Dea do and S e n (1998) aligned
i wi h classical ade heo ies, leading F ankel e al. (1997) o celeb a e i s ans o ma ion
in o an “emba assmen o iches” (F ankel e al.,1997), FDI ca alyzes expo s by enhancing
p oduc ion capabili ies and le e aging inancial de elopmen , which acili a es capi al
access and d i es inno a ion (Mano a,2013). Zwinkels and Beugelsdijk (2010) emphasize
ha ade libe aliza ion has ueled CESEE’s expo su ge, wi h FDI ampli ying his e ec .
High ins i u ional quali y—ma ked by e ec i e go e nance, egula o y s abili y, and secu e
p ope y igh s— u he bols e s his dynamic by os e ing s able en i onmen s ha a ac
FDI and enhance ade (Zhao e al.,2017) and Kuma and Radulescu (2024). This amewo k
illus a es how FDI, suppo ed by obus inancial and ins i u ional ecosys ems, powe s
CESEE’s expo boom, capi alizing on seamless in eg a ion wi h EU ma ke s. The ela ion-
ship be ween expo s and a ious mac oeconomic ac o s plays a c i ical ole in shaping a
coun y’s economic pe o mance. Key among hese ac o s a e exchange a es, o eign di-
ec in es men (FDI), g oss domes ic p oduc (GDP), and in la ion, each in luencing expo
dynamics in dis inc ye in e connec ed ways. No ably, he linkage be ween expo s and
FDI has ga ne ed signi ican a en ion due o i s po en ial o d i e ade compe i i eness
and economic g ow h Pod o ica e al. (2025). The ollowing li e a u e e iew explo es
hese ela ionships, beginning wi h expo s and exchange a es, ollowed by expo s and
FDI, expo s and GDP, and expo s and in la ion.
2.2. Expo s and Exchange Ra e (EXCH)
In hei 2017 s udy, Iwaisako and Naka a e alua ed he impac o exchange a e (EXCH)
shocks on Japanese expo s using da a om 1977 o 2014. Employing ec o au o eg ession
Economies 2025,13, 150 7 o 25
(VAR) and impulse esponse unc ion echniques, hey ound ha EXCH shocks had a
negligible e ec on expo s, while global demand shocks we e a mo e signi ican d i e
o expo luc ua ions. They also iden i ied oil p ice ola ili y as a key ac o in luencing
Japanese expo pa e ns. In 2014, Simasko a in es iga ed he e ec s o exchange a e
changes on Czech Republic ade lows. Using he Johansen co-in eg a ion es , he s udy
analyzed he long- e m ela ionship be ween EXCH ola ili y and bila e al ade. Empi ical
esul s showed ha inc eased Czech ko una ola ili y educed bo h impo s and expo s
wi h Aus ia, I aly, he Ne he lands, F ance, Ge many, and Poland. Expec ed nega i e
ade impac s we e con i med o he Slo ak Republic and he Uni ed Kingdom. Audzei
and B ázdik (2018) examined he e ec s o symme ic and asymme ic shocks on business
cycles in Cen al and Eas e n Eu opean (CEE) coun ies, ocusing on eal EXCH shocks’
con ibu ion o mac oeconomic ola ili y. Using ime se ies da a om Q1 1998 o Q1 2017
and a iance decomposi ion in wo-coun y s uc u al VAR models, hey de e mined ha
eal EXCH shocks had minimal impac on mac oeconomic ola ili y in mos CEE coun ies,
excep Bulga ia and Slo enia. Todo o e al. (2021) analyzed he in luence o EXCH egimes
and eu o a ea membe ship on he GDP o en CEE coun ies ha joined he EU in 2004 and
2007. The s udy ound ha coun ies wi h loa ing exchange a es o eu o a ea membe ship
expe ienced mo e a o able GDP ou comes compa ed o hose wi h ixed exchange a es o
ou side he eu o a ea. Howe e , he e ec s o EXCH egimes and eu o a ea membe ship on
eal GDP g ow h we e no s a is ically signi ican in ei he he sho o long e m. She chuk
(2022) explo ed he long- e m e ec s o an icipa ed cu ency dep ecia ion in CEE coun ies
om 2002 o 2019. The analysis e ealed ha expec ed EXCH dep ecia ion only pa ially
in luenced consume p ice changes.
Addi ionally, i ound ha he an icipa ed dep ecia ion led o a decline in ou pu . The
s udy also e ealed ha libe aliza ion e o s inc eased consume p ices and con ac iona y
e ec s o ade. Mo eo e , i iden i ied a ade-o be ween he e ec s on p ices and ou pu
conce ning changes in he money supply.
2.3. Expo s and FDI
Anwa and Nguyen (2011) examined he impac o FDI on Vie nam’s expo s, impo s,
and ne expo s using a g a i y model. Thei s udy analyzed ade da a om 1990 o 2007
ac oss 19 majo ading pa ne s, co e ing he p e-Asian inancial c isis, Asian inancial
c isis, and pos -c isis pe iods. Employing o dina y leas squa es (OLS) and gene alized
leas squa es (GLS) echniques, hey ound ha FDI signi ican ly boos ed ne expo s in
he pos -c isis pe iod, d i en by s eng hened backwa d linkages be ween domes ic and
o eign i ms in Vie nam. Sul an (2013) in es iga ed he ela ionship be ween FDI in lows
and expo s om 1980 o 2010 using he Johansen co-in eg a ion me hod and Vec o E o
Co ec ion Model (VECM). The esul s con i med ha FDI enhanced expo s by imp o ing
e iciency and p oduc i i y. While no sho - e m causali y exis ed be ween expo s and FDI,
a s able long- e m equilib ium ela ionship was es ablished. Pelinescu and Radulescu (2009)
assessed FDI’s e ec s on Romania’s GDP and expo s om 2000 o 2009. Thei analysis
demons a ed ha FDI signi ican ly p omo ed expo g ow h by enhancing p oduc ion
capaci y and compe i i eness. Addi ional ac o s, such as local cu ency dep ecia ion and
in e es a e luc ua ions, also in luenced expo pe o mance. Penko a-Pea son (2011)
s udied expo and impo demand unc ions in Bulga ia and Romania om 2000 o 2008.
The indings highligh ed EU economic g ow h and FDI in lows as key d i e s o expo
dynamics. No ably, eal exchange a e app ecia ion had negligible e ec s on expo s. The
s udy also obse ed ha ade con e gence be ween Bulga ia and Romania emained
obus , e lec ing s uc u al simila i ies in ade pa e ns despi e exchange a e luc ua ions.
Rădulescu and ¸Se bănescu (2012) analyzed he ela ionship be ween FDI and expo s in
Economies 2025,13, 150 8 o 25
Cen al and Eas e n Eu opean (CEE) coun ies om 1990 o 2010. Thei heo e ical ame-
wo k posi ed a bidi ec ional link be ween FDI and expo s. Empi ical esul s con i med
ha FDI signi ican ly inc eased expo s, pa icula ly in new EU membe s a es, by en-
hancing supply capaci y. Aca a ci and Oz u k (2012) explo ed he in e play among FDI,
expo s, and economic g ow h using he au o eg essi e dis ibu ed lag (ARDL) app oach
o co-in eg a ion. Thei indings indica ed ha FDI posi i ely in luenced economic g ow h,
wi h FDI-led g ow h e iden in he Czech Republic and Slo ak Republic. Howe e , no
consis en long- e m equilib ium ela ionship among eal GDP, expo s, and FDI was ound
in Bulga ia, Es onia, Hunga y, Li huania, Romania, and Slo enia.
2.4. Expo s and GDP
Aca a ci and Oz u k (2012) in es iga ed he ela ionships among o eign di ec in-
es men (FDI), expo s, and GDP in Cen al and Eas e n Eu opean (CEE) coun ies om
1994 o 2008. Thei analysis con i med a posi i e link be ween FDI in lows and economic
g ow h, wi h FDI di ec ly boos ing GDP in he Czech Republic and Slo ak Republic. No
G ange causali y was ound be ween expo s and GDP in he Czech Republic o Poland.
In La ia, FDI indi ec ly enhanced GDP h ough i s e ec on expo s.
Silaghi and Ioana (2009) conduc ed a ho ough examina ion o he ela ionship be-
ween expo s and GDP ac oss all CEE coun ies. Using G ange and Sims causali y es s,
hey iden i ied bidi ec ional causali y be ween expo s and GDP in ce ain CEE coun ies.
Thei indings suppo ed he G ow h-Led Expo (GLE) hypo hesis in Hunga y, Romania,
and Slo enia, demons a ing ha GDP g ow h p eceded expo inc eases in hese na ions.
D i sakis (2004) analyzed he in e play among expo s, in es men s, and economic de el-
opmen in he Eu opean Union, Bulga ia, and Romania, employing ec o au o eg ession
(VAR) and e o co ec ion model (ECM) echniques. The esul s indica ed ha expo s
d o e economic de elopmen in bo h Bulga ia and Romania, while GDP g ow h spu ed
expo expansion. In Bulga ia, GDP also exhibi ed a s ong co ela ion wi h in es men
g ow h, highligh ing a complex in e dependence among hese a iables.
2.5. Expo s and In la ion
Pu usa and Is iqomah (2018) in es iga ed he e ec s o o eign di ec in es men (FDI),
in la ion, and c ude oil p ices on expo s in Indonesia, Malaysia, he Philippines, Thailand,
and Vie nam om 2000 o 2015, using he Gene alized Me hod o Momen s (GMM). Thei
analysis e ealed ha FDI and c ude oil p ices signi ican ly inc eased expo s, while
in la ion exe ed a signi ican nega i e impac . Jacob e al. (2021) examined he sho - and
long- e m e ec s o mac oeconomic ac o s on India’s expo pe o mance om 1995 o 2020.
Thei indings indica ed ha in la ion and exchange a e dep ecia ion posi i ely in luenced
expo s. Addi ionally, exchange a e app ecia ion helped cu b in la ion, main ained a
a o able ade balance, and p omo ed expo s o domes ic goods, con ibu ing o sus ained
economic g ow h. De G auwe and Schnabl (2008) analyzed he impac o exchange a e
egimes on in la ion and economic g ow h in Sou h, Eas e n, and Cen al Eu ope om
1994 o 2004. Thei s udy p o ided s ong e idence ha s able exchange a es suppo ed
mac oeconomic s abiliza ion, c ea ing a a o able en i onmen o in e na ional ade and
paymen lows. Embe geno e al. (2022) explo ed he ela ionship be ween ade openness
and in la ion in Uzbekis an using ime se ies da a om 1997 o 2018. Thei esul showed
ha ade openness was associa ed wi h highe in la ion. Speci ically, expo openness
educed in la ion, while impo openness inc eased i . Economic g ow h, measu ed by GDP,
also d o e in la ion, wi h bo h GDP and ade openness iden i ied as key de e minan s.
The s udy u he no ed a nega i e co ela ion be ween expo openness and in la ion,
con as ed by a posi i e link be ween impo openness and in la ion.
Economies 2025,13, 150 15 o 25
Figu e 8. Rela ionship o Expo and in la ion a e in (1995 o 2022).
Figu e 9. Rela ionship o Expo and domes ic c edi (1995 o 2022).
Figu e 10. Rela ionship o Expo and HDI (1995 o 2022).
Economies 2025,13, 150 16 o 25
4.1. Majo Findings
4.1.1. Desc ip i e S a is ics and Co ela ion
The desc ip i e s a is ics (Table 3) p o ides a summa y o he key a iables used in he
analysis based on 140 obse a ions o each. The expo a iable has a mean o 3.86 wi h a
s anda d de ia ion o 0.395, indica ing mode a e a ia ion ac oss he sample, wi h alues
anging om 3.07 o 4.50. This sugges s ela i ely s able expo le els among he obse ed
coun ies o ime pe iods. The exchange a e has a mean alue o 4.47 and a low s anda d
de ia ion o 0.172, showing minimal luc ua ion, wi h a ange be ween 3.83 and 4.74. This
implies exchange a e s abili y ac oss he panel. GDP, likely in loga i hmic o m, shows
a mean o 9.14 wi h a s anda d de ia ion o 0.442, and alues anging om 8.17 o 9.93,
e lec ing di e ences in economic size ac oss coun ies. FDI displays signi ican a ia ion,
wi h a mean o 6.51 and a e y high s anda d de ia ion o 13.39, spanning om
−
40.08 o
106.59. This wide ange sugges s he p esence o bo h s ong in lows and nega i e alues
(possibly disin es men s o ne ou lows) in some coun ies o pe iods. In la ion shows
he highes a iabili y, wi h a mean o 16.97 and an ex emely high s anda d de ia ion o
90.64, and alues anging om
−
1.545 o 1058.37. This indica es subs an ial dispa i ies
in in la ion dynamics, likely e lec ing economic ins abili y o hype in la ion episodes in
ce ain coun ies. The domes ic c edi o p i a e sec o a iable has a mean o 3.52 and a
s anda d de ia ion o 0.534, wi h alues anging om 1.96 o 4.234, sugges ing mode a e
a ia ion in inancial de elopmen . Finally, he HDI is shown in a ans o med (possibly
no malized o di e enced) o m, wi h a mean o
−
0.214 and s anda d de ia ion o 0.065,
anging om
−
0.368 o
−
0.11, indica ing some dispe sion in human de elopmen le els
ac oss he coun ies obse ed.
Table 3. Desc ip i e s a is ics.
Va iable Obs Mean S d. De . Min Max
Expo 140 3.86 0.395 3.07 4.50
Exch 140 4.47 0.172 3.83 4.74
GDP 140 9.14 0.442 8.17 9.93
FDI 140 6.51 13.39 −40.08 106.59
In la ion 140 16.97 90.64 −1.545 1058.37
Domes ic 140 3.52 0.534 1.96 4.234
HDI 140 −0.214 0.065 −0.368 −0.11
Sou ce: Au ho s’ calcula ions.
The co ela ion ma ix (Table 4) e eals ha expo s a e s ongly and posi i ely as-
socia ed wi h GDP (0.65), Domes ic (0.62), and HDI (0.62), indica ing ha highe income,
inancial de elopmen , and human de elopmen boos expo pe o mance. Exch (0.26)
and FDI (0.17) show mode a e o weak co ela ions wi h expo s, while in la ion (
−
0.06) has
a negligible nega i e e ec . GDP co ela es s ongly wi h HDI (0.92) and mode a ely wi h
Domes ic (0.59) and exchange a e (0.40), e lec ing close ies be ween economic size and
de elopmen . In la ion is nega i ely co ela ed wi h mos a iables, especially exchange
a e, GDP, Domes ic, and HDI, sugges ing i s des abilizing na u e. FDI shows weak links
o e all, while HDI main ains s ong posi i e associa ions wi h majo g ow h and ade
a iables, unde lining i s cen al ole in expo pe o mance.
In o de o con i m mul icollinea i y and make su e he model is ee o bias om
missing a iables, we also pe o med a mul icollinea i y assessmen . The absence o
signi ican alue in Table 5’s es esul s indica es ha mul icollinea i y is no a p oblem.
Economies 2025,13, 150 17 o 25
Table 4. Co ela ion ma ix.
Va iables EXPORT EXCH GDP FDI
INFLATION DOMESTIC
HDI
EXPORT 1
EXCH 0.26 1.00
GDP 0.65 0.40 1.00
FDI 0.17 0.01 0.06 1.00
INFLATION
−0.06 −0.32 −0.27 −0.03 1.00
DOMESTIC 0.62 0.42 0.59 0.07 −0.30 1.00
HDI 0.62 0.61 0.92 0.02 −0.30 0.66 1
Sou ce: Au ho s’ calcula ions. No e: Va iable de ini ions a e as ollows: EXPORT = Expo s o goods and se ices;
EXCH = Real e ec i e exchange a e index; GDP = GDP pe capi a; FDI = Fo eign di ec in es men ; INFLATION
= In la ion a e; DOMESTIC = Domes ic c edi o he p i a e sec o ; HDI = Human De elopmen Index.
Table 5. VIF es .
Va iable VIF 1/VIF
Domes ic 1.71 0.585358
GDP 1.64 0.611136
Exch 1.35 0.738993
In la ion 1.16 0.861528
FDI 1.01 0.993249
HDI 1.75 0.571886
Sou ce: Au ho s’ calcula ions.
4.1.2. C oss-Sec ional Dependence Resul s
Table 6displays he indings om he CD s udy. The Pesa an scaled exam is used o
adminis e he CD es . The esul s suppo he al e na i e CSD hypo hesis in he expo
esidual wi h exchange a e, o eign di ec in es men , GDP, in la ion, and domes ic c edi .
Table 6. CD- es Pesa an (2006).
Va iable CD-Tes p-Value
Expo 14.005 * 0.000
Exch 13.644 * 0.000
FDI 5.115 * 0.000
GDP 16.335 * 0.000
In la ion 10.305 * 0.000
Domes ic 7.677 * 0.000
HDI 16.435 0.000
Sou ce: Au ho s’ calcula ions. No e: * indica es 1% signi icance le el.
4.2. Uni -Roo Findings
In his sec ion, we looked a he s a iona i y s a us o a oid spu iously eg essed,
biased, inconsis en , and alse conclusions. The esul s o he uni oo o he whole panel
a e shown in Table 7. We i s implemen ed he second-gene a ion CIPS uni oo es .
The indings suppo ha exchange a e, FDI, and in la ion a e s a iona y a le els I(0). In
con as , he expo s, GDP, and domes ic c edi a e s a iona y a he i s le el I(1).
Table 7. Panel Uni -Roo Tes Pesa an (2007).
Va iables I(0) I(1)
-S a is ic -S a is ic
Exch −2.457 **
Expo −1.820 −5.454 **
Economies 2025,13, 150 18 o 25
Table 7. Con .
Va iables I(0) I(1)
-S a is ic -S a is ic
FDI −2.625 **
GDP −2.284 −4.709 **
In la ion −3.644 **
Domes ic −1.947 −3.901 **
HDI −1.718 −3.716 **
Sou ce: Au ho s’ calcula ions, No e: ** indica e 5% signi icance le el.
4.3. Co-In eg a ion Findings
We applied he co-in eg a ion es s o Kao (1999), Ped oni (1999) and Wes e lund (2007).
Del a es s a is ics p o e co-in eg a ion a 1% and 5% signi icance le els, espec i ely. This
shows ha a iables a e co-in eg a ed; namely, he e is a long- e m ela ionship be ween
hem (Table 8).
Table 8. Co-in eg a ion es s.
Tes S a is ic p-Value
Kao −3.3579 * 0.0004
Ped oni 2.4875 * 0.0064
Wes e lund −1.986 ** 0.0235
Sou ce: Au ho s’ calcula ions. No e: * and ** indica e 1% and 5% signi icance le el.
4.4. Panel ARDL Reg ession Resul s
Table 9p esen s he PMG panel ARDL model esul s o CESEE coun ies, wi h expo s
as he dependen a iable. The indings e eal signi ican long- un ela ionships be ween
expo s and key explana o y a iables. The exchange a e exhibi s a nega i e e ec , wi h a
coe icien o
−
0.295035 (p= 0.0011), indica ing ha a 1% cu ency dep ecia ion educes
expo s by app oxima ely 0.3%. This inding aligns wi h p io s udies (Kuziemska-Pawlak
& Mu´ck,2024;Audzei & B ázdik,2018;Todo o e al.,2021), which sugges ha while
a weake eal exchange a e can enhance p ice compe i i eness, non–p ice ac o s, such
as p oduc quali y and ma ke di e si ica ion, a e c i ical d i e s o expo pe o mance
(Wanzala e al.,2024;Rădulescu & ¸Se bănescu,2012). The decision by CESEE coun ies,
including Poland, Romania, Hunga y, he Czech Republic, and Bulga ia, o e ain na ional
cu encies un il 2024 has p ese ed mone a y policy au onomy. This lexibili y enables
ailo ed in e en ions, such as in e es a e adjus men s, o bols e expo compe i i eness.
No ably, a 1% inc ease in GDP boos s expo s by app oxima ely 0.37%, as indica ed by
a long- un coe icien o 0.374544 (p= 0.0000). This co obo a es p io s udies (Buga ˇci´c
e al.,2024;Simako a,2024;She chuk,2022;Aca a ci & Oz u k,2012), which sugges ha
economic g ow h d i es he adop ion o ad anced echnologies and e icien p oduc ion
me hods, enhancing expo quali y and global compe i i eness. Fu he mo e, highe GDP
acili a es g ea e esou ce alloca ion o imp o ed ma ke ing s a egies and dis ibu ion
ne wo ks in in e na ional ma ke s. Fo eign di ec in es men (FDI) exe s a posi i e long-
un e ec on expo s in CESEE coun ies, as e idenced by he PMG panel ARDL model.
Wi h a coe icien o 0.003771 (p= 0.0375), a 1% inc ease in FDI is associa ed wi h a modes
0.004% ise in expo s. FDI enhances expo capaci y by injec ing capi al, in oducing
ad anced echnologies, and acili a ing access o global ma ke s, al hough i s impac
weakens a highe le els o in es men in ensi y. These indings align wi h p io s udies
(Wenxuan,2024;Rudy,2024;Dai,2024;Kuma e al.,2025;Pelinescu & Radulescu,2009),
which emphasize FDI’s ole in boos ing p oduc i i y and compe i i eness. Collec i ely,
Economies 2025,13, 150 19 o 25
hese esul s highligh he in e play o p ice and non-p ice ac o s in d i ing CESEE expo
g ow h, wi h FDI complemen ing o he dynamics, such as exchange a e e ec s, o shape
expo pe o mance. The indings om model indica es ha in la ion has a s a is ically
signi ican bu minimal posi i e e ec on expo s in CESEE coun ies, wi h a coe icien o
0.002173 (p= 0.0000). This sugges s ha a 1% inc ease in in la ion leads o a sligh 0.002%
ise in expo s. The modes expo boos can be a ibu ed o in la ion’s in e ac ion wi h
lexible exchange a es, which o en esul s in cu ency dep ecia ion, making CESEE expo s
mo e p ice-compe i i e in in e na ional ma ke s. Addi ionally, in la ion may incen i ize
i ms o enhance p oduc i i y and adop cos -e icien p oduc ion me hods o o se ising
cos s, he eby main aining o imp o ing expo quali y. S a egic ma ke di e si ica ion
u he mi iga es in la iona y p essu es by educing eliance on p ice-sensi i e ma ke s,
allowing CESEE coun ies o sus ain expo g ow h. These indings align wi h p io
s udies (Daianu e al.,2024;Benk e al.,2024), which highligh how lexible exchange
a es, p oduc i i y gains, and di e si ied ma ke s a egies enable CESEE coun ies o
p ese e expo compe i i eness despi e in la iona y challenges. Domes ic c edi o he
p i a e sec o signi ican ly enhances wi h a long- un coe icien o 0.099965 (p= 0.0000).
This indica es ha a 1% inc ease in domes ic c edi leads o a 0.1% ise in expo s. The
subs an ial impac e lec s he pi o al ole o c edi a ailabili y in expanding p oduc ion
capaci y, os e ing inno a ion, and imp o ing p oduc quali y, which collec i ely s eng hen
expo compe i i eness. These indings a e consis en wi h p io s udies (Hege y,2024;
Bako,2024), which highligh how access o domes ic c edi empowe s i ms o in es
in echnology, scale ope a ions, and pene a e global ma ke s, he eby d i ing expo
pe o mance in CESEE economies. The coe icien o HDI indica es ha a 1-uni inc ease in
HDI boos s expo s by o e 6%. The subs an ial impac s ems om HDI’s componen s—
educa ion, heal h, and income—which enhance expo pe o mance h ough mul iple
channels. Imp o ed educa ion os e s a skilled wo k o ce capable o inno a ion and high-
alue p oduc ion, ele a ing he quali y and compe i i eness o expo s. Be e heal h
ou comes ensu e a p oduc i e labo o ce, educing absen eeism and inc easing ou pu
o expo -o ien ed indus ies. Highe income le els enable in es men s in echnology
and in as uc u e, u he s eng hening ade pa icipa ion. These indings align wi h
p io s udies (Bozduman,2025;Šlande -Wos ne e al.,2025;Syam,2025), which emphasize
human capi al’s ole in d i ing p oduc i i y and global ma ke engagemen . In con as ,
he cons an e m (0.660396, p= 0.1313) is s a is ically insigni ican , indica ing no inhe en
baseline e ec on expo s. These esul s unde sco e he mul i ace ed d i e s o CESEE
expo g ow h, wi h HDI and GDP exe ing he mos signi ican long- un impac s. The
sho - un coe icien s om he PMG panel ARDL model indica e ha app oxima ely 39.67%
o any disequilib ium in expo s is co ec ed annually, e lec ing a mode a e adjus men
speed owa d he long- un equilib ium. The di e enced in la ion a iable (D(INFLATION)),
wi h a coe icien o 0.004363 (p= 0.0173), sugges s ha a 1% inc ease in in la ion boos s
expo s by 0.004% in he sho un, likely due o empo a y p ice compe i i eness gains om
cu ency dep ecia ion. Con e sely, he lagged di e enced in la ion
(D(INFLATION(-1)
,
wi h a coe icien o
−
0.004300 (p= 0.0533), implies ha a 1% inc ease in p io -pe iod
in la ion educes expo s by 0.004%, possibly as i ms adjus p ices o lose compe i i eness.
These signi ican coe icien s unde sco e he ole o in la ion dynamics and equilib ium
adjus men in shaping sho - un expo pe o mance in CESEE coun ies. The Mean G oup
(MG) es ima ion e eals se e al s a is ically signi ican ela ionships, gene ally consis en
wi h he PMG esul s, al hough he la e demons a e a be e o e all i . The exchange a e
(EXCH) has a nega i e and signi ican e ec , while FDI exe s a weak posi i e in luence.
GDP, in la ion, domes ic in es men , and HDI all exhibi posi i e and signi ican impac s,
unde sco ing hei impo ance in de e mining he dependen a iable. The cons an e m
Economies 2025,13, 150 20 o 25
is s a is ically insigni ican . O e all, while he MG esul s a e cohe en , he PMG es ima es
a e mo e obus and eliable.
Table 9. Panel ARDL Reg ession.
Selec ed Model: PMG (2, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 2) Mean G oup
Va iable Coe icien S d. E o P ob. Coe icien S anda d E o P ob.
Long- un (Pooled) Coe icien s
EXCH −0.295035 * 0.088330 0.0011 −0.1556 ** 0.1051 0.0041
FDI 0.003771 ** 0.001793 0.0375 0.0020 ** 0.0231 0.0451
GDP 0.374544 * 0.076959 0.0000 0.2922 *** 0.0101 0.0064
INFLATION 0.002173 * 0.000455 0.0000 0.0013 *** 0.0121 0.0034
DOMESTIC 0.099965 * 0.018671 0.0000 0.1155 *** 0.0542 0.0054
HDI 6.266831 * 0.793466 0.0000 5.2345 *** 0.1515 0.0051
C 0.660396 0.434662 0.1313 0.4515 0.4813 0.5132
Sho - un (Mean-G oup) Coe icien s
COINTEQ −0.396714 ** 0.171727 0.0226 −0.5031 *** 0.1943 0.000
D(EXPORT(-1)) 0.146015 0.148117 0.3263 0.15122 0.4561 0.370
D(EXCH) −0.105659 0.275743 0.7023 −0.0021 0.3515 0.234
D(FDI) 0.002642 0.003437 0.4436 0.00912 0.0055 0.093
D(FDI(-1)) 0.001391 0.003023 0.6464 0.03554 ** 0.0012 0.7541
D(GDP) 0.332254 0.284231 0.2448 0.27135 0.3255 0.3516
D(INFLATION) 0.004363 ** 0.001808 0.0173 0.00356 0.0021 0.0462
D(INFLATION(-1)) −0.004300 * 0.002203 0.0533 −0.0054 * 0.0065 0.0652
D(DOMESTIC) −0.007001 0.157603 0.9646 −0.0521 0.1813 0.9324
D(DOMESTIC(-1)) −0.054056 0.108829 0.6203 −003254 0.1510 0.2546
D(HDI) 1.490440 1.985268 0.4543 1.14552 2.1516 0.5401
D(HDI(-1)) −4.578443 2.865118 0.1127 −4.2136 3.161 0.1446
Hausman Tes (p-Value) 0.5621
Sou ce: Au ho s’ calcula ions. No e: *, **, and *** deno e s a is ical signi icance a he 1%, 5%, and 10% le els,
espec i ely. Va iable de ini ions a e as ollows: EXPORT = Expo s o goods and se ices; EXCH = Real e ec i e
exchange a e index; GDP = GDP pe capi a; FDI = Fo eign di ec in es men ; INFLATION = In la ion a e;
DOMESTIC = Domes ic c edi o he p i a e sec o ; HDI = Human De elopmen Index, D = deno es i s -
di e ence ope a o ; (-1) indica es lagged i s di e ence. Null Hypo hesis (H
0
):-PMG es ima o is e icien and
consis en , bu MG is no e icien .
5. Conclusions and Policy Recommenda ions
This s udy in es iga es he de e minan s o expo pe o mance in Cen al, Eas e n,
and Sou heas e n Eu opean (CESEE) coun ies—Poland, Romania, Hunga y, he Czech
Republic, and Bulga ia—using da a om 1995 o 2022. I examines he oles o o eign
di ec in es men (FDI), exchange a es, GDP, in la ion, domes ic c edi , and he human
de elopmen index (HDI) h ough he PMG panel ARDL model. The PMG panel ARDL
model esul s p o ide u he insigh s in o he long- un and sho - un dynamics o expo
pe o mance. In he long un, HDI has he mos subs an ial impac , wi h a 1-uni inc ease
boos ing expo s by o e 6%, d i en by enhanced educa ion, heal h, and income le els
ha os e inno a ion and p oduc i i y. GDP signi ican ly enhances expo s, wi h a 1%
inc ease aising expo s by 0.37%, e lec ing he ole o economic g ow h in ad ancing
echnology and ma ke access. Domes ic c edi o he p i a e sec o con ibu es no ably,
wi h a 1% inc ease leading o a 0.1% expo ise, suppo ing p oduc ion and inno a ion.
In la ion has a sligh posi i e e ec , wi h a 1% ise inc easing expo s by 0.002%, acili a ed
by cu ency dep ecia ion and di e si ied ma ke s. FDI con ibu es modes ly, wi h a 1%
inc ease yielding a 0.004% expo g ow h, hough i s e ec weakens a highe in ensi ies.
Con e sely, exchange a e dep ecia ion nega i ely impac s expo s, wi h a 1% dep ecia ion
educing expo s by 0.3%, hough non-p ice ac o s mi iga e his e ec . The e en ion o
na ional cu encies un il 2024 has p ese ed mone a y policy au onomy, enabling ailo ed
in e en ions o suppo compe i i eness. In he sho un, in la ion dynamics and a mod-
Economies 2025,13, 150 21 o 25
e a e adjus men speed (39.67% annually) owa d equilib ium shape expo pe o mance.
The Mean G oup (MG) es ima ion e eals se e al s a is ically signi ican ela ionships,
gene ally consis en wi h he PMG esul s, al hough he la e demons a e a be e o e all
i . The exchange a e (EXCH) has a nega i e and signi ican e ec , while FDI exe s a weak
posi i e in luence. GDP, in la ion, domes ic in es men , and HDI all exhibi posi i e and
signi ican impac s, unde sco ing hei impo ance in de e mining he dependen a iable.
The cons an e m is s a is ically insigni ican . O e all, while he MG esul s a e cohe en ,
he PMG es ima es a e mo e obus and eliable.
The indings om he PMG panel ARDL model unde sco e key s a egies o en-
hancing expo pe o mance in Cen al, Eas e n, and Sou heas e n Eu opean (CESEE)
coun ies. Policymake s should p io i ize sus ainable GDP g ow h by suppo ing high-
po en ial expo indus ies h ough in es men s in inno a ion, echnology, and p oduc i i y
enhancemen s. S eng hening human capi al ia a ge ed in es men s in educa ion and
heal h is essen ial o os e ing a skilled and p oduc i e wo k o ce, which d i es long- e m
expo compe i i eness. Imp o ing access o domes ic c edi is c i ical, as i enables i ms o
expand ope a ions, inno a e, and compe e globally, pa icula ly in ad anced inancial sys-
ems. P omo ing ma ke di e si ica ion helps mi iga e in la iona y p essu es and exchange
a e ola ili y, ensu ing CESEE coun ies main ain hei global ma ke compe i i eness.
Enhancing in as uc u e is i al o educing expo - ela ed cos s and imp o ing e iciency,
he eby bols e ing global compe i i eness. P uden iscal and mone a y policies can help
manage in la ion, p e en ing cos escala ions ha could unde mine expo pe o mance.
Expo e s should le e age pe iods o GDP g ow h o expand p oduc ion and explo e new
ma ke s, while employing inancial hedging s a egies o minimize he impac o in la ion
and exchange a e luc ua ions on cos s and p icing. Awa eness o and pa icipa ion in
go e nmen ini ia i es o expo inancing a e c ucial o expo e s o secu e necessa y
c edi access.
This s udy acknowledges ce ain limi a ions. The da ase is cons ained, lacking
da a o key a iables such as labo p oduc i i y, eal wages, s ock ma ke capi aliza ion,
and ins i u ional ac o s like poli ical s abili y, go e nance e ec i eness, and co up ion
con ol. These ac o s, pa icula ly ele an gi en he ansi ional and s uc u al changes
in CESEE economies, wa an u he in es iga ion. Addi ionally, he s udy does no
dis inguish be ween immedia e and pe sis en e ec s o p edic o s on expo s. Fu u e
esea ch could add ess hese gaps by employing al e na i e es ima ion me hods, such
as mean-based app oaches, o comp ehensi ely analyze hese dynamics and inco po a e
ins i u ional a iables.
Au ho Con ibu ions: Concep ualiza ion, P.K. and M.R.; Da a cu a ion, P.K.; Fo mal analysis,
P.K. and A.M.; So wa e, M.R.; Me hodology, M.R., Valida ion, M.R.; W i ing o iginal d a , M.R.;
In es iga ion, I.M.; Re iewing and edi ing, I.M. All au ho s ha e ead and ag eed o he published
e sion o he manusc ip .
Funding: This esea ch ecei ed no ex e nal unding.
Ins i u ional Re iew Boa d S a emen : No applicable.
In o med Consen S a emen : No applicable.
Da a A ailabili y S a emen : Da a will be a ailable on eques om he co esponding au ho .
Con lic s o In e es : Au ho s decla e no con lic o in e es s.
Economies 2025,13, 150 22 o 25
Abb e ia ions
CESEE Cen al, Eas e n, and Sou h-Eas e n Eu ope
EXCH Exchange Ra e
FDI Fo eign Di ec In es men
GDP G oss Domes ic P oduc
HDI Human De elopmen Index
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