Li, Jun; Li, Shuqi; Qiu, Yi eng
A icle
How does public policy d i e u ban ene gy ansi ion?
E idence om China
Economies
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Sugges ed Ci a ion: Li, Jun; Li, Shuqi; Qiu, Yi eng (2025) : How does public policy d i e u ban ene gy
ansi ion? E idence om China, Economies, ISSN 2227-7099, MDPI, Basel, Vol. 13, Iss. 7, pp. 1-16,
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Ci a ion: Li, J., Li, S., & Qiu, Y. (2025).
How Does Public Policy D i e U ban
Ene gy T ansi ion? E idence om
China. Economies,13(7), 195. h ps://
doi.o g/10.3390/economies13070195
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A icle
How Does Public Policy D i e U ban Ene gy T ansi ion?
E idence om China
Jun Li 1, Shuqi Li 2and Yi eng Qiu 3,*
1School o Public Managemen , Sou h China Ag icul u al Uni e si y, Guangzhou 510642, China;
[email p o ec ed]
2College o Business and Logis ics, Luohe Voca ional Technology College, Luohe 462002, China;
[email p o ec ed]
3Cen e o China Special Economic Zone S udies, Shenzhen Uni e si y, Shenzhen 518060, China
*Co espondence: [email p o ec ed]
Abs ac
P omo ing u ban ene gy ansi ion is essen ial o achie ing en i onmen al sus ainabili y,
ye how o e ec i ely guide his p ocess h ough public policy emains a key esea ch
ques ion. This s udy aims o e alua e he e ec i eness o go e nmen policy in acili a ing
u ban ene gy ansi ion, wi h a speci ic ocus on China’s Na ional New Ene gy Demon-
s a ion Ci y Cons uc ion (NEDC) Policy. Using a di e ence-in-di e ences model wi h
panel da a om 274 Chinese ci ies, he empi ical esul s indica e ha he NEDC policy
signi ican ly ad ances u ban ene gy ansi ion, esul ing in a no able inc ease o 0.571 uni s
in he U ban Ene gy T ansi ion Index and an imp o emen o 0.0321 uni s in he U ban
Ene gy T ansi ion E iciency Index. Mechanism analysis u he e eals ha he NEDC
policy p omo es u ban ene gy ansi ion p ima ily by ad ancing inancial de elopmen ,
s eng hening en i onmen al egula ions, and encou aging capi al-biased echnological
p og ess. He e ogenei y analysis indica es ha he NEDC policy signi ican ly boos s u -
ban ene gy ansi ion in esou ce-based ci ies, whe eas i exe s a supp essi e e ec on
u ban ene gy ansi ion in non- esou ce-based ci ies. This s udy o e s aluable policy
implica ions o de eloping coun ies seeking sus ainable u ban ans o ma ion.
Keywo ds: u ban ene gy ansi ion; capi al-biased echnological p og ess; ene gy s uc u e;
ene gy consump ion e iciency
1. In oduc ion
Unde s anding how public policy can e ec i ely p omo e u ban ene gy ansi ion
is a c i ical esea ch aim in he con ex o achie ing global en i onmen al sus ainabili y.
The u gency o en i onmen al sus ainabili y has p omp ed na ions wo ldwide o explo e
new u ban de elopmen models ha balance economic g ow h and ecological p ese a ion.
China’s sys ema ic p ac ices in eco-ci y ans o ma ion ha e eme ged as a ep esen a i e
case s udy in he explo a ion o new u ban pa adigms (Islam,2024;Y. Wu & Zhang,2024;
Dai,2025). To add ess en i onmen al p essu es om apid u baniza ion and indus ial
expansion, he Chinese go e nmen implemen ed he New Ene gy Demons a ion Ci ies
Cons uc ion (NEDC) policy in 2014, aiming o inc ease he p opo ion o enewable ene gy
consump ion in designa ed pilo ci ies (Jiao e al.,2024;J. Zhang e al.,2020). Howe e , he e
is s ill a lack o empi ical esea ch examining he impac o simila policies on u ban ene gy
ansi ion. The e o e, his s udy seeks o add ess his gap by sys ema ically e alua ing he
e ec i eness and unde lying mechanisms o he NEDC policy in p omo ing u ban ene gy
Economies 2025,13, 195 h ps://doi.o g/10.3390/economies13070195
Economies 2025,13, 195 2 o 16
ansi ion, he eby p o iding aluable policy insigh s o de eloping coun ies pu suing
sus ainable u ban ans o ma ion. As he la ges de eloping coun y, China’s expe ience
o e s a dis inc i e case, and al hough he empi ical analysis is g ounded in he Chinese
con ex , he co e mechanisms and policy a ionale—such as di e en ia ed go e nance
s a egies and ins i u ional inno a ion—may se e as use ul insigh o o he de eloping
coun ies con on ing simila challenges in hei u ban ene gy ansi ions.
Some s udies indica e ha Chinese u ban a eas accoun ed o app oxima ely 85% o
na ional ca bon emissions (Z. Liu e al.,2022), making u ban ans o ma ion ou comes
c i ical de e minan s o achie ing China’s na ional dual ca bon goals. Exis ing s udies
indica e ha he in luen ial ac o s o u ban ene gy u iliza ion mainly include inancial
de elopmen le els (I an e al.,2023), ene gy p ices (Geng e al.,2021), echnological
inno a ion (Ma can onini & Elle man,2015), go e nmen incen i es (Shahbaz e al.,2022),
and indus ial s uc u es (Zhao e al.,2023). The u ban ene gy ansi ion policy incen i e
essen ially ep esen s a pa adigma ic inno a ion ha in eg a es ecological alues in o
economic g ow h sys ems (Dai e al.,2025;Xu e al.,2024). Empi ical indings also show
ha he NEDC p og am has signi ican ly imp o ed en i onmen al pe o mance (Shao
e al.,2024) and accele a ed ecological ansi ions (J. Wu e al.,2018;Q. Zhang e al.,2022)
in pilo ci ies h ough policy-guided echnological inno a ion and indus ial upg ading.
Addi ionally, p io esea ch ends o ocus on he heo e ical and domes ic dimensions o
u ban ene gy policy impac s, wi h limi ed a en ion gi en o po en ial c oss-bo de e ec s,
such as echnology spillo e s and in e na ional coope a ion. The e o e, his s udy seeks o
add ess hese con adic ions by conduc ing a comp ehensi e and sys ema ic analysis o
he NEDC policy’s impac on u ban ene gy ansi ions in China. In pa icula , i aims o
cla i y he mechanisms d i ing ene gy ansi ion, he eby con ibu ing o a mo e nuanced
unde s anding o u ban ans o ma ion unde dual ca bon cons ain s.
Using a quasi-na u al expe imen design based on China’s 2014 NEDC policy im-
plemen a ion, his s udy employs panel da a om 274 Chinese p e ec u e-le el ci ies
(2011–2018) o examine policy impac s and mechanisms ia a di e ence-in-di e ences
(DID) model. Findings e eal ha he NEDC policy inc eased ene gy s uc u e ans o ma-
ion by 0.57 uni s and ene gy e iciency ans o ma ion by 0.03 uni s in pilo ci ies compa ed
o non-pilo coun e pa s. Resul s emain obus a e adjus ing clus e - obus s anda d
e o s, adding ime/ci y ixed e ec s, and some u he obus ness checks using s agge ed
policy iming, al e na i e ea men a iables, and placebo analysis con i m es ima ion
eliabili y. Mechanism analysis iden i ies h ee impac pa hways: p omo ing inancial
de elopmen , s eng hening en i onmen al egula ions, and s imula ing capi al-biased
echnological p og ess. This s udy enhances he unde s anding o u ban ene gy ansi ion
policies in eme ging economies.
This s udy makes h ee key con ibu ions o he exis ing li e a u e. Fi s , i add esses
an impo an esea ch gap by empi ically examining he e ec i eness o China’s public
policy (New Ene gy Demons a ion Ci y Policy) in d i ing u ban ene gy ansi ion—a
policy a ea ha has ecei ed limi ed a en ion in p io s udies. While much o he exis ing
li e a u e has ocused on he na ional le el, he speci ic impac s o ci y-le el demons a ion
policies on ene gy ansi ion emain unde explo ed. By ocusing on he NEDC policy ini-
ia i e, his s udy en iches he ield o ene gy economics wi h esh empi ical e idence on
how place-based policies can eshape u ban ene gy sys ems. Second, his s udy ad ances
he unde s anding o he mechanisms unde lying policy-d i en u ban ene gy ansi ions.
Speci ically, i iden i ies h ee c i ical channels— inancial de elopmen , en i onmen al
egula ion, and capi al-biased echnological p og ess— h ough which he NEDC policy
acili a es u ban ene gy ansi ion. This mechanism analysis p o ides aluable insigh s o
designing di e en ia ed and a ge ed policy in e en ions in u u e sus ainable u ban de-
Economies 2025,13, 195 3 o 16
elopmen s a egies. Thi d, his esea ch employs a mul i-pe iod di e ence-in-di e ences
(DID) me hodology o igo ously iden i y he causal e ec o he NEDC policy on u ban
ene gy ansi ion ou comes, e ec i ely add essing po en ial endogenei y and selec ion bias
issues ha may ha e unde mined he alidi y o ea lie s udies. The adop ion o his obus
empi ical s a egy enhances he c edibili y o he indings and suppo s he o mula ion o
e idence-based policy ecommenda ions o de eloping coun ies aiming o implemen
simila eco-ci y ini ia i es.
2. Theo e ical Analysis and Resea ch Hypo heses
As a co e policy wi hin he ins i u ional inno a ion amewo k o he new ene gy
go e nance pa adigm, China’s Na ional New Ene gy Demons a ion Ci y Cons uc ion
(NEDC) policy dis inguishes i sel h ough i s e ical in eg a ion mechanism o “goal
ancho ing- echnological adap a ion-scena io de elopmen ”. Unlike adi ional one-way
ene gy planning models, he NEDC policy employs an u ban-subjec i e de elopmen logic,
linking inno a i e ene gy demand-side managemen ools (e.g., g een elec ici y ading
mechanisms) wi h supply-side s uc u al e o ms o o m mul i-scale nes ed sus ainable
ene gy ecosys ems.
Building on his ounda ion, he NEDC policy unc ions as a sys ema ic s a egy o
accele a e he ansi ion om ossil uel-based o sus ainable ene gy sys ems. P io s udies
show ha he policy educes en e p ise ene gy in ensi y ia echnological inno a ion and
ax incen i es (X. Liu e al.,2023). Fo ins ance, Chen e al. (2023) inds ha NEDC di ec ly
d i es ene gy s uc u al ans o ma ion by boos ing enewable ene gy use, while e iciency
gains a e indi ec esul s o echnological p og ess. Q. Zhang e al. (2022) con i ms his
dual ansi ion enhances u ban ene gy ca bon pe o mance (ECP). J. Yang e al. (2024)
demons a e ha go e nmen guidance combined wi h g een echnological inno a ion
unde NEDC yields sys ema ic imp o emen s in bo h ene gy s uc u e and e iciency.
Collec i ely, hese indings sugges ha NEDC’s composi e app oach le e ages bo h di ec
p omo ion o new ene gy de elopmen and indi ec acili a ion o echnological p og ess.
Based on he heo e ical analysis abo e, we p opose he ollowing:
Hypo hesis 1: The NEDC policy exe s posi i e e ec s on u ban ene gy ansi ion.
Financial de elopmen plays a pi o al ole in his p ocess by enabling e icien capi al
alloca ion o g een indus ies, educing inancing cos s and isks associa ed wi h enew-
able p ojec s. A he i m le el, imp o ed inancial accessibili y helps o e come unding
cons ain s, accele a ing g een in es men s (He e al.,2021). The g ow h o g een inan-
cial ins umen s, such as sus ainabili y-linked bonds, u he suppo s capi al-in ensi e
clean ene gy p ojec s. Mac oeconomically, inancial de elopmen s eng hens iscal and
egula o y amewo ks, enabling a ge ed subsidies, ax incen i es, and public in es men
in g een in as uc u e. Financial libe aliza ion and eme ging g een inance ma ke s, in-
cluding ca bon ading and ESG-based s a egies, c ea e an enabling en i onmen aligning
inancial decisions wi h sus ainabili y goals (C. Li e al.,2022). These mechanisms in eg a e
closely wi h he NEDC policy’s inancial incen i es o d i e u ban ene gy ansi ion.
Based on he heo e ical analysis abo e, we p opose he ollowing:
Hypo hesis 2: NEDC policy p omo es u ban ene gy ansi ion by p omo ing inancial de elopmen .
Beyond inancial de elopmen , iscal esou ces and en i onmen al egula ions a e
also i al acili a o s o ene gy ansi ion. A s able iscal e enue base p o ides necessa y
unding o enewable ene gy inno a ion and enables go e nmen s o s eng hen en i on-
men al o e sigh (Hou e al.,2024). The NEDC policy le e ages iscal subsidies and ax
Economies 2025,13, 195 4 o 16
incen i es o build a egula o y amewo k ha encou ages clean ene gy adop ion. Unlike
inancial de elopmen , which mainly in luences ene gy ansi ion ia capi al alloca ion
and in es men e iciency, en i onmen al egula ions ope a e h ough en o cemen and
ins i u ional cons ain s ha shape co po a e and consume beha io owa d sus ainabili y.
These egula ions p omo e ene gy ansi ion h ough mul iple pa hways: imposing com-
pliance cos s on pollu ing indus ies o d i e g eene p oduc ion; incen i izing R&D in
enewable echnologies o accele a e inno a ion; and employing ma ke -based ins umen s
like ca bon p icing and emission ading o shi ene gy consump ion pa e ns.
The e ec i eness o hese egula ions is enhanced by inancial de elopmen , which
supplies he capi al i ms need o comply and in es in low-ca bon echnologies. This in e -
play aligns wi h p e ious indings emphasizing he ole o inno a i e inancial ins umen s
in enewable ene gy g ow h (Song e al.,2023), he posi i e e ec s o inancial openness
on s uc u al ene gy ans o ma ion (Jia e al.,2024), and he in luence o g een inance on
consump ion and pollu ion educ ion (C. Li e al.,2022).
Based on he heo e ical analysis abo e, we p opose he ollowing:
Hypo hesis 3: NEDC policy p omo es u ban ene gy ansi ion by s eng hening en i onmen al
egula ions.
Technological p og ess, especially capi al-biased echnological p og ess (IBTE), is
a co e d i e o ene gy s uc u al ans o ma ion (Hassan e al.,2022;Webe & Doma-
zlicky,1999). Unde he NEDC policy, binding enewable ene gy and ca bon in ensi y
a ge s phase ou ene gy-in ensi e i ms, edi ec ing capi al o g een inno a ion sec o s.
The policy’s combina ion o R&D subsidies and ca bon ma ke incen i es c ea es a e-
in o cing inno a ion loop, enhancing capi al-biased echnological ad ances (Wang & Yi,
2021). Ci y- ype he e ogenei y mode a es his e ec : esou ce-based ci ies, wi h es ablished
g een egula o y amewo ks and hea y capi al s ocks, expe ience s onge capi al-biased
p og ess due o suppo i e ins i u ional and inancial condi ions (X. Zhang e al.,2022).
Based on he heo e ical analysis abo e, we p opose he ollowing:
Hypo hesis 4: NEDC policy p omo es u ban ene gy ansi ion by s imula ing capi al-biased
echnological p og ess.
3. Da a and Me hod
3.1. Sample Selec ion and Da a Sou ces
3.1.1. Dependen Va iable
U ban ene gy ansi ion, he dependen a iable o his s udy, encompasses wo
dimensions: ene gy supply-side s uc u al op imiza ion and demand-side e iciency im-
p o emen (Fan & Yi,2021). This s udy ocuses on he dimension o ene gy s uc u e
ansi ion (UET), while simul aneously examining he impac o policies on ene gy e i-
ciency ansi ion (CTFP).
Fo measu ing UET, e e ing o he esea ch amewo k o Shen e al. (2023), a
wo-dimensional assessmen sys em is de eloped, inco po a ing ene gy sys em ansi ion
pe o mance and ene gy ansi ion eadiness. The o me measu es he cu en s a e o
he ene gy sys em, co e ing ene gy s uc u e and en i onmen al sus ainabili y, while he
la e e lec s ansi ion-d i ing ac o s, including economic ounda ion, capi al in es men ,
echnological applica ion, and alen ese es. In addi ion, o e i y he in e nal consis ency
and eliabili y o he a iable scale, his s udy calcula es he C onbach’s Alpha coe icien .
This coe icien is used o assess he in e nal consis ency among mul iple indica o s wi hin
a measu emen ool, wi h alues anging om 0 o 1. Gene ally, a alue o
α
> 0.7 is
Economies 2025,13, 195 5 o 16
conside ed o indica e high eliabili y (Nunnally,1978). In his s udy, he C onbach’s
Alpha coe icien o he UET a iable exceeds 0.75 (Shen e al.,2023), demons a ing ha
he cons uc ed measu emen sys em has good consis ency and s abili y in e lec ing he
co e concep .
Fo ene gy e iciency e alua ion, we inno a i ely in oduce he ca bon o al ac o
p oduc i i y (CTFP) indica o . Roo ed in he en i onmen al p oduc ion echnology heo y
p oposed by Fä e e al. (1989,1993), CTFP inco po a es ca bon emissions as a non-desi able
ou pu in o he TFP calcula ion amewo k using he Shephe d dis ance unc ion. Unlike
adi ional g een o al ac o p oduc i i y (GTFP) ha only conside s pollu an s, CTFP
u he dis inguishes he he e ogeneous impac s o ene gy inpu and ca bon emissions
h ough he ollowing o mula:
CTFP =Y
LαKβEγCOδ
2
(1)
whe e Y ep esen s egional GDP, L, K, and E deno e labo , capi al, and ene gy inpu s,
espec i ely, CO
2
is he non-desi able ou pu , and
α
,
β
,
γ
,
δ
a e he ou pu elas ici y
coe icien s o co esponding ac o s. A highe CTFP alue indica es highe comp ehensi e
e iciency in achie ing economic g ow h and ca bon emission con ol unde he same
ac o inpu s.
3.1.2. Independen Va iable
The co e independen a iable is China’s Na ional New Ene gy Demons a ion Ci y
(NEDC) policy, ep esen ed by he in e ac ion e m DID
i
be ween he policy dummy
a iable and ime dummy a iable. This policy adop s a pu pose ul sampling s a egy
based on he 2014 NEDC lis issued by he Na ional Ene gy Adminis a ion, selec ing
59 pilo ci ies as he ea men g oup (excluding emo e a eas like Tibe and Xinjiang).
When es ablishing he NEDC, China se speci ic en y c i e ia o selec ed ci ies, equi ing
hem o mee s anda ds in economic, social, ene gy, and en i onmen al de elopmen
capaci y. Pilo ci ies we e also equi ed o comple e na ional and p o incial a ge s o
o al pollu an emission educ ion wi hin he designa ed ime ame (X. Yang e al.,2021;
X. Liu e al.,2023). The scien i ic a ionale o his sampling design lies in he ac ha he
pilo ci ies we e uni o mly designa ed by he cen al go e nmen , which helps elimina e
selec ion bias s emming om ci ies’ own ene gy cha ac e is ics (Jacobson e al.,1993).
The con ol g oup, consis ing o 215 non-pilo ci ies, was de e mined based on a dual
ma ching p inciple: geog aphic p oximi y, o con ol o di e ences in clima e condi ions
and ene gy in as uc u e; and indus ial s uc u e simila i y, o ensu e he compa abili y
o ene gy consump ion cha ac e is ics. This sampling design aligns wi h he equi emen s
o he DID model’s coun e ac ual amewo k and e ec i ely isola es he ne e ec o
policy in e en ion.
Ul ima ely, his app oach o ms a balanced panel da ase comp ising 274 ci ies o e
he pe iod 2011–2018. The policy implemen a ion yea is se as 2014, wi h he DID
i
a iable
assigned a alue o 1 o ea men g oup ci ies in yea s ≥2014, and 0 o he wise.
3.1.3. Mechanism Va iables
The mechanism a iables include inancial de elopmen , en i onmen al egula ions,
and capi al-biased echnological p og ess. Financial de elopmen (FDI) is measu ed using
he inclusi e inance index de eloped by G. Li e al. (2023), which comp ehensi ely
e lec s inancial accessibili y and se ice e iciency h ough 12 indica o s such as bank
ou le densi y and mobile paymen co e age. En i onmen al egula ions (IPCI) ollow he
me hodology p o ide by He e al. (2021) and Ye e al. (2021), calcula ed as he a io o
Economies 2025,13, 195 6 o 16
indus ial pollu ion con ol in es men o en i onmen al p o ec ion in es men . A highe
IPCI alue indica es g ea e iscal in es men in ensi y in pollu ion go e nance.
The measu emen o capi al-biased echnological p og ess (IBTE) ollows he me hod-
ology o Webe and Domazlicky (1999) and Fä e e al. (1997). Based on he Malmquis inpu
p oduc i i y index, o al ac o p oduc i i y (TFP) change is decomposed in o o e all ech-
nical e iciency change (OTEC) and echnological p og ess (TECH). Technological p og ess
is u he decomposed in o he p oduc o ou pu -biased echnological p og ess (OBTE),
inpu -biased echnological p og ess (IBTE), and neu al echnological p og ess (MATE).
The IBTE coe icien is used o quan i y he echnology bias cha ac e is ics o capi al ac o s.
The calcula ion da a is sou ced om C. Li e al. (2022). The speci ic calcula ion equa ions
a e as ollows:
MALM =OTEC ∗TECH (2)
TECH =OBTE ∗IBTE ∗MATE (3)
3.1.4. Con ol Va iables
In he selec ion and measu emen o con ol a iables, his s udy sys ema ically in-
co po a es some key a iables ha may in luence u ban ene gy ansi ion (UET), wi h
indica o cons uc ion s ic ly adhe ing o heo e ical logic and measu emen s anda ds
es ablished in p io esea ch. Indus ial s uc u e le el (IND) is measu ed using he na u al
loga i hm o seconda y indus y added alue, e ec i ely cap u ing he s uc u al impac
o ene gy-in ensi e sec o s such as manu ac u ing and hea y indus ies on u ban ene gy
consump ion. Economic de elopmen s age (XGDP) is cha ac e ized by he na u al log-
a i hm o pe capi a GDP, con olling o di e en ial e ec s o u ban economic scale and
li ing s anda ds on ene gy demand elas ici y. G een echnological inno a ion capaci y
(GTFP) is calcula ed as he na u al loga i hm o annual g een pa en coun s (including
u ili y and in en ion pa en s) plus one, a ea men ha a oids ze o- alue bias while
quan i ying he ma ginal con ibu ion o en i onmen ally iendly echnologies o ene gy
sys em op imiza ion. Technological R&D in ensi y (RD) is measu ed by he a io o R&D
expendi u e o GDP. The selec ion o hese con ol a iables aligns wi h b oad consensus
in ene gy economics li e a u e and co esponds o he heo e ical amewo k posi ing
h ee-dimensional impac s o indus ial s uc u e, economic ounda ion, and echnological
inno a ion on ene gy ansi ion. Table 1p esen s he de ini ions o he ele an a iables.
Table 1. De ini ion o Va iables.
Va iable Name De ini ion
UET U ban Ene gy T ansi ion Measu es s uc u al change in u ban ene gy sys ems, based
on ansi ion pe o mance and eadiness.
CTFP Ca bon To al Fac o P oduc i i y E alua es ene gy e iciency, inco po a ing ca bon emissions
as undesi able ou pu s wi hin a TFP amewo k.
DID Policy T ea men Indica o
In e ac ion e m o NEDC pilo ci ies and pos -policy pe iod
(pos -2014), co e explana o y a iable.
FDI Financial De elopmen Index Measu es inancial accessibili y and se ice e iciency using
inclusi e inance indica o s.
IPCI En i onmen al Regula ion In ensi y Ra io o indus ial pollu ion con ol in es men o o al
en i onmen al p o ec ion in es men .
IBTE Capi al-Biased Technological P og ess Inpu -biased echnological p og ess calcula ed ia
Malmquis index decomposi ion.
Economies 2025,13, 195 7 o 16
Table 1. Con .
Va iable Name De ini ion
IND Indus ial S uc u e Loga i hm o he added alue o he seconda y indus y,
ep esen ing ene gy-in ensi e economic ac i i y.
XGDP Economic De elopmen Le el Loga i hm o pe capi a GDP, con olling o di e ences in
ci y de elopmen s ages.
GTFP G een Inno a ion Capaci y Loga i hm o he numbe o g een pa en s (u ili y and
in en ion) plus one.
RD R&D In ensi y Ra io o R&D expendi u e o GDP, cap u ing inno a ion
in es men s eng h.
CCT Ca bon T ading Policy Dummy Indica es whe he a ci y is co e ed by he na ional ca bon
emission ading scheme, used in obus ness es s.
3.2. Model
Rega ding empi ical model cons uc ion, his s udy ea s he 2014 New Ene gy
Demons a ion Ci ies (NEDC) policy implemen a ion as a quasi-na u al expe imen . A
di e ence-in-di e ences (DID) model is employed o es ima e he ne e ec s o policy
in e en ion on u ban ene gy s uc u e ans o ma ion (UET) and ene gy e iciency en-
hancemen (CTFP). Le e aging he lis o policy pilo s, ci ies a e ca ego ized in o ea men
g oups (policy pilo ci ies) and con ol g oups (non-pilo ci ies). The DID design o e s
signi ican me hodological ad an ages: Fi s , he exogenous na u e o policy shocks sub-
s an ially mi iga es endogenei y caused by e e se causali y, as local go e nmen selec ion
o pilo ci ies ypically ollows cen al policy di ec i es a he han inhe en u ban ene gy
endowmen s. Second, he inclusion o wo-way ixed e ec s can educe es ima ion bias
om omi ed a iables. The model speci ica ion, as shown in Equa ions (4) and (5), di ec ly
e lec s he magni ude o ene gy ansi ion imp o emen in ea men g oups ela i e o
con ol g oups pos -policy implemen a ion h ough i s in e ac ion e m coe icien .
CETi =β0+β1DIDi +β2con oli +λ +γi+εi (4)
CTFPi =β0+β1DIDi, +β2con oli +λ +γi+εi (5)
CETi
and
CTFPi,
ep esen he dependen a iables, which mean he u ban ene gy
ansi ion and u ban ene gy e iciency ansi ion o ci y iin yea , espec i ely.
DIDi,
is a
s a egic dummy a iable, e lec ing he implemen a ion o NEDC policy in yea by ci y i,
which is coun ed as 1 o implemen a ion and 0 o non-implemen a ion. Fo he con ol
a iables
con oli,
, including indus ial le el (IND), economic de elopmen le el (XGDP),
g een inno a ion le el (GTFP) and echnology esea ch and de elopmen le el (RD);
γi
ep esen s he ixed e ec o ci ies, which is used o con ol he inhe en cha ac e is ics
o di e en ci ies;
λ
is a ixed e ec o he yea s o con ol he in luence o he mac o
en i onmen o e ime;
εi
is an e o e m ha co e s andom in e e ence ac o s ha a e
no conside ed by he model.
The da a used in his s udy a e sou ced om he U ban S a is ical Yea books o a ious
Chinese ci ies and om ele an da a manually collec ed by he au ho s om di e en ci ies.
Table 2p esen s he desc ip i e s a is ics o he a iables. Table 3p esen s he desc ip i e
s a is ics o he ea men and con ol g oups, be o e and a e he implemen a ion o
he policy.
Economies 2025,13, 195 8 o 16
Table 2. Desc ip i e s a is ics.
Va iable N Mean S d Min Max
UET 2192 46.284 12.536 17.598 82.724
CTFP 2129 −0.029 0.212 −4.073 0.762
DID 2192 0.135 0.341 0 1
FDI 2192 4.942 0.507 2.972 5.714
IPCI 2188 11.445 7.261 0.221 42.622
IBTE 2192 0.999 0.008 0.967 1.214
IND 2192 15.808 0.948 13.046 18.416
XGDP 2192 10.676 0.565 8.772 13.055
GTFP 2192 4.772 1.67 0 10.122
RD 2188 0.296 0.311 0.125 5.033
CCT 2192 0.1 0.301 0 1
Table 3. Desc ip i e S a is ics: T ea men and Con ol G oups Be o e and A e Policy Implemen a ion.
P e-Policy Pos -Policy
Con ol
G oup
T ea men
G oup Di e ence Con ol
G oup
T ea men
G oup Di e ence Di e ence in
Di e ence
UET 43.814 43.931 0.117 48.552 49.178 0.626 0.509
Ene gy
Consump ion (Uni :
100 million ons o
s anda d coal)
1330 1336 6 1272 1212 −60 −66
Ene gy In ensi y
(Uni : 100 million
ons o s anda d coal
pe 10,000 USD)
4.023 4.035 0.012 3.211 3.031 −0.18 −0.192
FDI 4.416 4.418 0.002 5.245 5.392 0.147 0.145
IPCI 9.689 9.652 −0.037 10.266 10.457 0.191 0.228
IBTE 1.0004 1.0006 0.0002 0.9986 0.9997 0.0011 0.0009
Numbe o ci y 215 59 215 59
4. Empi ical Resul s and Analysis
4.1. Baseline Reg ession Resul s
In Table 4, he baseline eg ession esul s based on he di e ence-in-di e ences (DID)
model e eal ha China’s New Ene gy Demons a ion Ci y (NEDC) policy signi ican ly
p omo es u ban ene gy ansi ion. Speci ically, columns (1) and (2), whe e he U ban Ene gy
T ansi ion Index (UET) se es as he dependen a iable, indica e ha he implemen a ion
o he NEDC policy has led o an inc ease o 0.571 uni s in UET in he pilo ci ies, a e
con olling o o he a iables. The coe icien is s a is ically signi ican a he 5% le el.
Columns (3) and (4), which use he Ci y-le el Ene gy T ansi ion E iciency Index (CTFP) as
he dependen a iable, indica e ha he NEDC policy led o a 0.0321-uni inc ease in CTFP,
wi h he coe icien being s a is ically signi ican a he 5% le el. All models con ol o bo h
ci y-speci ic and yea -speci ic ixed e ec s. These indings suppo Resea ch Hypo hesis 1,
sugges ing ha he NEDC policy can p omo e u ban ene gy ansi ion.
Economies 2025,13, 195 15 o 16
S.L.; isualiza ion, J.L.; supe ision, J.L.; p ojec adminis a ion, J.L.; unding acquisi ion, S.L. All
au ho s ha e ead and ag eed o he published e sion o he manusc ip .
Funding: Na ional Na u al Science Founda ion o China P ojec (G an No. 72364014). Jiangxi
P o incial Social Science Founda ion P ojec (G an No. 25JL06).
Ins i u ional Re iew Boa d S a emen : No applicable.
In o med Consen S a emen : No applicable.
Da a A ailabili y S a emen : The aw da a suppo ing he conclusions o his a icle will be made
a ailable by he au ho s on eques .
Con lic s o In e es : The au ho s decla e no con lic o in e es .
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