Dube, Isha; Quaas, Ma in; Sagebiel, Julian; Voss, Rudi
A icle — Published Ve sion
Consume p e e ences o sus ainably sou ced sea ood:
Implica ions o ishe ies dynamics and managemen
Ame ican Jou nal o Ag icul u al Economics
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p e e ences o sus ainably sou ced sea ood: Implica ions o ishe ies dynamics and managemen ,
Ame ican Jou nal o Ag icul u al Economics, ISSN 1467-8276, Wiley, Hoboken, NJ, Iss. Ea ly View, pp.
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ARTICLE
Consume p e e ences o sus ainably sou ced
sea ood: Implica ions o ishe ies dynamics
and managemen
Isha Dube
1
| Ma in Quaas
2,3,4
| Julian Sagebiel
2,3
| Rudi Voss
2,5
1
Depa men o Business Adminis a ion,
Economics and Law, Ca l on Ossie zky
Uni e si y Oldenbu g, Oldenbu g, Ge many
2
Ge man Cen e o In eg a i e Biodi e si y
Resea ch (iDi ) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig,
Ge many
3
Depa men o Economics, Uni e si y o Leipzig,
Leipzig, Ge many
4
Kiel Ins i u e o he Wo ld Economy, Kiel,
Ge many
5
Cen e o Ocean and Socie y, Uni e si y o Kiel,
Kiel, Ge many
Co espondence
Ma in Quaas, Ge man Cen e o In eg a i e
Biodi e si y Resea ch (iDi ) Halle-Jena-Leipzig,
Leipzig, Ge many.
Email: [email p o ec ed]
Abs ac
Many ish consume s e eal a p e e ence o sus ainably
sou ced sea ood in hei pu chasing decisions. We p o-
pose a bioeconomic modeling app oach and an empi ical
s a egy, based on a disc e e choice expe imen , o quan-
i y he esul ing e ec s on ishe y dynamics and o de i e
implica ions o e icien ishe y managemen . We show
ha a “consume s ock e ec ”a ises, which s abilizes a
ishe y unde open access and which dec eases ca ches
unde economically e icien managemen . We quan i y
hese e ec s o he Wes e n Bal ic cod ishe y.
KEYWORDS
bioeconomic model, disc e e choice expe imen , ishe ies, enewable
esou ce managemen , sus ainabili y label
JEL CLASSIFICATION
Q11, Q22
1|INTRODUCTION
Wo ldwide, ish and ishe y p oduc s o m an impo an sou ce o p o ein and income o millions
o people (FAO, 2024). Howe e , inc easing exploi a ion as well as en i onmen al s esso s pose se i-
ous h ea s o ish s ocks, and he pe cen age o global s ocks being classi ied as o e used by he
FAO has been inc easing o decades (FAO, 2024). Fish consume s a e awa e o his and inc easingly
pay a en ion o he sus ainabili y o he ishe ies in hei pu chasing decisions (Asche &
B onnmann, 2017; B onnmann e al., 2021; B onnmann & Asche, 2017; Zheng e al., 2021). Acco d-
ingly, sea ood labels such as he Ma ine S ewa dship Council (MSC) label a e gaining ac ion, wi h
nea ly 20% o global ish ca ches being MSC ce i ied (MSC, 2024). Ecolabeled sea ood can ecei e a
Recei ed: 12 Decembe 2023 Accep ed: 21 Feb ua y 2025
DOI: 10.1111/ajae.12544
This is an open access a icle unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons A ibu ion License, which pe mi s use, dis ibu ion and ep oduc ion
in any medium, p o ided he o iginal wo k is p ope ly ci ed.
© 2025 The Au ho (s). Ame ican Jou nal o Ag icul u al Economics published by Wiley Pe iodicals LLC on behal o Ag icul u al & Applied
Economics Associa ion.
Ame J Ag Econ. 2025;1–23. wileyonlinelib a y.com/jou nal/ajae 1
subs an ial p ice p emium, showing ha consume s a e willing o pay mo e o ish om a
sus ainabili y-ce i ied ishe y (Asche e al., 2015; Asche & B onnmann, 2017; B onnmann
e al., 2021; Ho i e al., 2020). This highe willingness o pay is mos ly mo i a ed by a conce n o
s ock s a us and en i onmen al impac o ishing (B onnmann e al., 2021). Howe e , in he cu en
ma ke s, he po en ial o sus ainable ish p oduc s is no ully exploi ed (Al in zoglou &
Nøs old, 2014; B éca d e al., 2009; Pieniak e al., 2013).
Acco ding o bioeconomic heo y, he ac ha ishing cos s dec ease wi h ish s ock size esul s
in inc eases in he size o he ished popula ion in s eady s a e, bo h unde open access and unde
economically op imal ha es ing (Cla k & Mun o, 1975; Hannesson, 2007). This so called “s ock
e ec ” esul s in he conclusion ha he “maximum economic yield”s ock size, ha is, he economi-
cally op imal s ock size in he long un wi hou discoun ing, is la ge han he s ock size ha would
gene a e he maximum sus ainable yield (Cla k, 1991; Cla k & Mun o, 1975; G a on e al., 2007;
Hannesson, 2007), which conside s yield alone bu dis ega ds ha es ing cos s. He e, we discuss a
new a ian o s ock e ec , which a ises as he alue o ish inc eases wi h a la ge (mo e sus ainable)
s ock s a us. This is jus i ied wi h he highe willingness o pay o consume s o ish om sus ain-
able ishe ies, leading o an upwa d shi o demand i he s ock size is in a heal h shape. We call his
e ec he “consume s ock e ec .”
We de elop and apply a bioeconomic model ha seamlessly in eg a es he s a is ical analysis o
s ock assessmen da a and a demand model ha is based on bo h ime se ies o ma ke p ice da a
and choice expe imen da a on p e e ences o di e en a ibu es o ish p oduc s. We assess he
ole o he consume s ock e ec by con as ing esul s o model a ian s wi h and wi hou conside -
ing he consume s ock e ec , bo h in a se ing o open access and unde economically op imal ish-
e ies managemen . We also quan i y he esilience o he s eady s a e in an open access se ing by
compu ing he cha ac e is ic ime o app oach he s eady s a e (Pimm, 1984).
As a case s udy, we quan i y he model based on de ailed da a o he Wes e n Bal ic cod ishe y.
This s ock is a ac ing high in e es , in pa icula ecen ly, as i is ou side sa e biological limi s
(ICES, 2022a,2022b; Möllmann e al., 2021; Voss e al., 2021). The bioeconomic model we de elop
o he Wes e n Bal ic cod ishe y is based on Tah onen e al. (2018). To be as close as possible o
ac ual ishe ies managemen , we use a single species age-s uc u ed ish popula ion model, ollowing
he s anda d ICES (2022a,2022b) s ock assessmen , and discuss sus ainabili y e e ence poin s based
on he scien i ic ad ice om ICES (2022a,2022b). Cu en ly, he Wes e n Bal ic cod ishe y is bes
desc ibed as a es ic ed open access ishe y: The ishe y is subjec o a numbe o inpu es ic ions,
including limi ed en y, gea es ic ions, and seasonal closu es. Ye , quo as ha e no been su i-
cien ly es ic i e in he pas . Fo he Ge man lee , he ac ual ca ches ha e been conside ably lowe
han he ishing quo a o 9 ou o he 10 yea s in he pe iod 2012–2022 (ICES, 2022a,2022b). This
indica es ha i has no been p o i able o he ishe men o ully exhaus he quo a (Quaas &
Skonho , 2022). One eason migh be a consume conce n o he sus ainabili y o ma ine ishe ies,
which is p e alen among Ge man ish consume s (Asche & B onnmann, 2017; B onnmann
e al., 2021; B onnmann & Ho mann, 2018). The educed demand om consume s may ha e
educed he incen i es o con inue ishing on he al eady o e ished s ock. A he same ime, his
consume conce n o sus ainabili y may p o ide an ex a economic eason o ebuild he s ock. The
aim o his pape is o quan i y hese e ec s o bo h se ings, ( es ic ed) open access and op imal
managemen , o a eal-wo ld ishe y.
Fo he case o he Wes e n Bal ic cod ishe y, we ind ha he implica ions o he consume
s ock e ec a e o la ge magni ude in he ( es ic ed) open access ishe y and would ha e signi ican
implica ions o op imal ishe ies managemen . We ind ha he s onge he consume p e e ences
o ish s ock sus ainabili y is, he lowe is he cha ac e is ic ime o app oach he s eady s a e, imply-
ing a highe esilience. Whe eas he cha ac e is ic ime wi h he consume s ock e ec es ima ed
om he da a o he ac ual ishe y is abou 5 yea s, he hypo he ical cha ac e is ic ime wi hou a
consume s ock e ec would be mo e han 25 yea s, ha is, mo e han i e imes longe . Howe e ,
we also ind ha he consume conce n o sea ood sus ainabili y is no su icien o achie e an
2PREFERENCES FOR SUSTAINABLY SOURCED SEAFOOD
14678276, 0, Downloaded om h ps://onlinelib a y.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajae.12544, Wiley Online Lib a y on [23/05/2025]. See he Te ms and Condi ions (h ps://onlinelib a y.wiley.com/ e ms-and-condi ions) on Wiley Online Lib a y o ules o use; OA a icles a e go e ned by he applicable C ea i e Commons License
e icien ou come o he ishe y wi hou p ope egula ion. Ra he , he economically op imal man-
agemen should ake he consume conce n o s ock s a us in o accoun . A any gi en ish popula-
ion size, he e icien ca ches wi h he consume s ock e ec a e lowe han he ac ual ca ches unde
open access and also han he ca ches ha would be e icien wi hou a consume s ock e ec .
Whe eas he e icien ca ches wi hou a consume s ock e ec would be close o maximum sus ain-
able yield managemen , he e icien ca ches ha ake in o accoun he consume s ock e ec a e less
han hal as la ge. These quan i a i e esul s a e ob ained o he special case o he Wes e n Bal ic
cod ishe y, and unce ain ies in bo h s ock assessmen and empi ical quan i ica ion o consume
p e e ences ansla e in o unce ain ies in he magni ude o esul s. Ye , a leas o his ishe y, ou
esul s sugges ha ishe ies managemen ha adequa ely e lec s consume p e e ences o sus ain-
ably sou ced sea ood should be mo e conse a i e han cu en managemen .
2|RELATED LITERATURE
We build on he ex ensi e li e a u e ha s udies how he managemen o li ing esou ces should ake
in o accoun use and non-use alues o he ecosys em. In his li e a u e, he non-use alues a e o en
a ached o s ocks ha a e di e en om he ha es ed esou ce i sel . A ms ong e al. (2017)
include he alue o habi a in a bioeconomic analysis o ishing wi h gea s ha a e des uc i e e sus
ishing wi h gea s ha a e nondes uc i e o cold-wa e co als. The s ock wi h non-use bene i s, in
his case, a e cold-wa e co als, whe eas he ha es ed esou ce is he ish popula ion. Using da a
om a choice expe imen and a bioeconomic model o he No heas A c ic cod ishe y, hey show
ha he non-use alue o cold-wa e co als o he No wegian gene al popula ion s ongly a ec s
op imal ishing ac i i ies. Ansua egi e al. (2019) conside local communi ies ishing on a sh imp
s ock in Baja, México, and na u e-based ou ism, in pa icula whale-wa ching ios, as a non-
ex ac i e ac i i y. They show ha ishing ac i i y mode a ely dec eases wi h he s ock size o he
whale popula ion.
Simila in spi i o ou pape bu conside ing o he ypes o na u al esou ces a e Manning e al.
(2020) and En iquez and Finno (2021). In bo h o hese s udies, i is he s ock o he ha es ed
esou ce ha has a non-use alue. Manning e al. (2020) use esul s om a dicho omous choice con-
ingen alua ion su ey in an in eg a ed assessmen model o g oundwa e use in Kansas. They use
his app oach o es ima e he alue o a wa e igh e i emen p og am ha aims a inc easing he
s ock o g oundwa e . En iquez and Finno (2021) de elop a bioeconomic model o hun ing and
conse a ion o g izzly bea s in he G ea e Yellows one Ecosys em, including non-use alues o he
g izzly bea popula ion as well as damages om bea –human con lic s ha inc ease wi h he g izzly-
bea popula ion. En iquez and Finno (2021) build on he b oade li e a u e on “mul i-use”wildli e
popula ions, which analyzes how o manage popula ions ha a e bo h a alue and a nuisance on a
mo e concep ual le el (Rondeau, 2001), including A ican elephan s (Ho an & Bul e, 2004), moose
in No way (Skonho & Olaussen, 2005), and he ed king c ab in he Ba en s Sea (Skonho &
Kou an idou, 2021).
Mos closely ela ed o ou pape a e Bul e and Koo en (1999), A nason (2008), and Ke sulec
e al. (2024), as hey conside he managemen o a li ing ma ine esou ce, which a he same ime
has a consump i e alue om ha es ing and a non-use alue a ached o he s ock. Bul e and
Koo en (1999) in eg a e non-use bene i s o p ese ing he s ock o minke whales in a bioeconomic
analysis o ha es ing hese whales o hei consump ion alue. They ind ha including he non-
use alue subs an ially inc eases he op imal s eady-s a e whale popula ion size. Bul e and Koo en
(1999) conside he p ese a ion alue o whales as a pu e public good, and acco dingly he objec i e
unc ion is addi i ely sepa able in he consump ion bene i and non-use alue o whales. In con as ,
he consume p e e ences o sus ainably sou ced sea ood, conside ed he e, is a p i a e alue o a
mo e heal hy s ock size, which shi s he demand unc ion o esou ce ha es up o down. A nason
(2008) includes “conse a ionis s,”who only ca e abou he s ock s a us, as one s akeholde g oup in
DUBE ET AL.3
14678276, 0, Downloaded om h ps://onlinelib a y.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajae.12544, Wiley Online Lib a y on [23/05/2025]. See he Te ms and Condi ions (h ps://onlinelib a y.wiley.com/ e ms-and-condi ions) on Wiley Online Lib a y o ules o use; OA a icles a e go e ned by he applicable C ea i e Commons License
he analysis o op imal ishe ies managemen , and s udies he e iciency o an indi idual ans e able
quo a sys em in his se ing. He e, we ocus on consume s o he esou ce who ha e a p e e ence o
consuming ish om a sus ainably managed s ock. Ke sulec e al. (2024) s udy how consume p e e -
ences a ec he sus ainabili y o a coas al mul ispecies ishe y in F ench Guiana. They conside he
demand model p oposed by Quaas and Requa e (2013) and use i o de i e condi ions o biologi-
cally sus ainable consume p e e ences while a he same ime main aining iable economic p o i s.
We di e om Ke sulec e al. (2024) as we explici ly de i e demand o ish om a disc e e choice
expe imen , which akes in o accoun s ock s a us o he esou ce.
In many s udies ha conside en i onmen al p e e ences, he di ec use alue om ha es ing
and he non-use alue om he ecosys em s ock en e he socie al objec i e linea ly. This implies
ha unde open access, when he non-use alue is an ex e nali y in he decision making o esou ce
ha es e s, i has no e ec on esou ce dynamics. In con as , ou ocus is on he non-use alue ha
di ec ly in e ac s wi h he use alue, as consume willingness o pay o esou ce consump ion
inc eases wi h he esou ce s ock size. This in e ac ion be ween use alue and non-use alue has an
e ec on esou ce dynamics also unde open access, as changes in he esou ce s ock size a ec he
alue o esou ce ha es . Unde economically op imal managemen , he in e ac ion be ween use
alue and non-use alue has a non i ial e ec , as i a ec s no only he alue o he s ock bu also
demand o esou ce ha es .
This is an e ec on he demand sys em ha comes in addi ion o he usual downwa d-sloping
demand. A downwa d-sloping demand unc ion means ha consume s a e willing o pay a ela i ely
high p ice i ish is ge ing sca ce. In an open-access ishe y, his implies ha incen i es o ca ch
emain ela i ely high i he s ock is dec easing. This e ec may be s ong enough ha he ishe y
becomes uns able a low s ock sizes (Dao e al., 2023; Holden & McDonald-Madden, 2017; Quaas &
Requa e, 2013; Smi h, 1969), and i also ends o dec ease economically op imal ha es a high s ock
sizes (Zimme mann e al., 2011b). Ou analysis akes his e ec in o accoun and he e o e includes
bo h e ec s: Demand is a dec easing unc ion o he ish quan i y a ailable on he ma ke and also
an inc easing unc ion o he cu en size o he ish popula ion size.
Ou s udy also builds on p e ious wo k ha includes a posi i e e ec o ish popula ion size on
sea ood demand in bio-economic analysis. These s udies come o simila conclusions as we do bu
o easons o he han a consume conce n o ish s ock sus ainabili y. Se e al s udies include he
e ec ha he quali y o landed ish is inc easing wi h he ish s ock size, which inc eases he ma ke
p ice ha consume s a e willing o pay. One aspec is ha la ge ish o he same species ge a highe
ma ke p ice (Quaas e al., 2013; Zimme mann & Heino, 2013). Zimme mann e al. (2011a) show
ha his e ec educes ha es a es and implies a la ge op imal s ock size. Wo ld Bank (2016) p e-
sen a bio-economic model o he global ma ine ishe ies, whe e he ish p ice is an inc easing unc-
ion o ish biomass. This is supposed o cap u e he e ec s ha a la ge global ish popula ion
biomass also means ha landings inc easingly consis o mo e aluable species and la ge indi idual
ish, which ge a highe ma ke p ice, as also discussed in G a on e al. (2005) and Cos ello e al.
(2016). These e ec s ampli y he bene i s o mo e e ec i e ishe ies managemen . We use exac ly he
same o mula ion o he demand model as Wo ld Bank (2016) bu in a single-species age-s uc u ed
popula ion model, wi h he aim o cap u e a consume conce n o sus ainably sou ced sea ood, no
an inc easing quali y o he sea ood p oduc i sel . Whe eas his dis inc ion does no ma e o gen-
e al heo e ical esul s, i is impo an o he quan i ica ion o he e ec s, which is he main pu pose
o he p esen pape .
3|THEORY
3.1 |Model o sea ood demand wi h consume s ca ing o s ock s a us
We conside a ep esen a i e consume making a choice o e he quan i y qo sea ood consump-
ion, which may depend on he s ock size (o s ock s a us) Band on a ec o o o he cha ac e is ics
4PREFERENCES FOR SUSTAINABLY SOURCED SEAFOOD
14678276, 0, Downloaded om h ps://onlinelib a y.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajae.12544, Wiley Online Lib a y on [23/05/2025]. See he Te ms and Condi ions (h ps://onlinelib a y.wiley.com/ e ms-and-condi ions) on Wiley Online Lib a y o ules o use; OA a icles a e go e ned by he applicable C ea i e Commons License
o he ishe y A, in addi ion o he ish p ice p. The consume has a budge ma ailable o he con-
sump ion o ish and he nume ài e z, ha is, a composi e good o p ice no malized o one, so ha
m¼pqþz. We speci y an iso-elas ic in e se demand unc ion
PqðÞ¼aAχBσqη:ð1Þ
In his equa ion, Bdeno es s ock biomass, wi h σbeing he s ock elas ici y o demand; qdeno es he
quan i y o ish consump ion, and acco dingly, ηdeno es p ice lexibili y. Gi en η> 0, he demand
unc ion (1) has he usual downwa d-sloping p ope y. We u he assume η< 1, which means ha
expendi u es inc ease wi h he consumed quan i y. Finally, aAχ> 0 is a demand shi e ha cap u es
po en ially obse able as well as unobse ed e ec s on demand, including o he ishe y- ela ed a i-
ables A he consume may ca e abou , which en e wi h an elas ici y χ. Whe eas he empi ical analy-
sis equi es us o speci y he demand unc ion, such a speci ica ion na u ally comes wi h es ic ions.
One is ha he iso-elas ic o m can only be ega ded as an app oxima ion o e a limi ed in e al o
p ices and quan i ies o ish consump ion. Second, he iso-elas ic ela ionship o he demand shi e
on he a iables o in e es may also become p oblema ic i hese a iables exceed ce ain limi s.
Thi d, a mul iplica i e demand shi e implies a pa icula complemen a i y be ween s ock s a us
and consumed quan i y, such ha he e ec o he demand shi —in absolu e quan i ies—is pa icu-
la ly la ge as he consumed quan i y is small.
The in oduc ion o he demand shi e allows cap u ing demand e ec s o c edence a ibu es o
he ish such as he sus ainabili y o he ishe y. In ou case, we use he demand shi e o cap u e
p e e ences o a heal hy s ock. As ound o example in B onnmann e al. (2021), demand shi s
upwa d i he p oduc comes om a ishe y wi h a heal hy s ock (Figu e 1, using da a o he case o
Wes e n Bal ic cod).
The demand unc ion (1) implies an indi ec u ili y unc ion, which can be de i ed using Roy’s
Iden i y unde he assump ion o cons an income elas ici y. Speci ically, we in eg a e (1) o ob ain
(see online Appendix S1)
Vp,A,BðÞ¼mþ1
1ηaAχBσ
ðÞ
1
ηp11
η:ð2Þ
o e ished s ock
sligh ly o e ished
no o e ished
q
uan i
y
[1000 ons]
p ice [EUR/kg]
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
5
4
3
2
1
0
FIGURE 1 Demand unc ion o cod o h ee le els o he s ock s a us: o e ished (Blim), sligh ly o e ished (Bpa), and
no o e ished (Bmsy)–o Wes e n Bal ic cod.
DUBE ET AL.5
14678276, 0, Downloaded om h ps://onlinelib a y.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajae.12544, Wiley Online Lib a y on [23/05/2025]. See he Te ms and Condi ions (h ps://onlinelib a y.wiley.com/ e ms-and-condi ions) on Wiley Online Lib a y o ules o use; OA a icles a e go e ned by he applicable C ea i e Commons License
In his equa ion, mis a cons an o in eg a ion ha cap u es all e ec s on u ili y no di ec ly in e -
ac ing wi h ish consump ion. This includes income, as we ha e o igno e income e ec s in he
model, due o lack o da a.
3.2 |Fishe y economic beha io
Fishe s a e assumed o maximize p o i s, aking as gi en ma ke p ices, ishing echnology, and egu-
la o y cons ain s. Using H o deno e o al ca ches and B o deno e ish popula ion biomass in yea
, we model he ishing cos unc ion as
CH
,B
ðÞ¼
c
1þε
H1þε
B
:ð3Þ
He e, c> 0 is a cos pa ame e , which possibly includes he cos s o echnical cons ain s, such as
mesh size es ic ions o seasonal closu es, and 1þε> 1 is he elas ici y o he ishing cos unc ion
wi h espec o ca ch. This cap u es an e ec ha uni ishing cos inc ease wi h ha es H due o
conges ion ex e nali ies (Smi h, 1969).
The cos unc ion speci ied in Equa ion (3) also ea u es he classical s ock e ec ha ishing
cos s dec ease wi h inc easing s ock size B (Cla k & Mun o, 1975; Hannesson, 2007), which is a sen-
sible assump ion o a sea ch ishe y, as he Wes e n Bal ic cod ishe y is. Fo he pu poses o model
iden i ica ion and ha ing lack o mo e p ecise in o ma ion on cos elas ici y wi h espec o s ock
size, we assume ha he uni ishing cos s a e in e sely p opo ional o ish popula ion biomass. We
no e ha his is a es ic i e assump ion, which possibly o e es ima es he classical cos -based s ock
e ec , as his elas ici y may di e om (minus) one (S einshamn, 2011), and also ha we igno e any
(quasi ixed) cos s ha a e independen o he ha es and biomass.
3.3 |Fish popula ion dynamics
We conside an age-s uc u ed popula ion model wi h Sage classes, using he no a ion o Tah onen
e al. (2018), whe e xs deno es he s ock numbe s o age sin yea , and αs he su i al a e om age
s o age sþ1. Rec ui men a age 1 is gi en by he s ock- ec ui men unc ion φx0
ðÞ, which models
ec ui men as a unc ion o spawning s ock biomass x0 . Spawning s ock biomass is de ined as
x0 ¼X
S
s¼1
wsγsxs :ð4Þ
In his equa ion, wsis he a e age weigh o an indi idual o age sand γsis he ac ion o ish o age
s ha is ma u e.
Using hs o deno e he ha es o ish aged sin yea , he popula ion dynamics can be summa-
ized as
x1, þ1¼φx0
ðÞ ð5aÞ
xsþ1, þ1¼αsxs hs o s¼1,…,S1ð5bÞ
xS, þ1¼αS1xS1, þαSxS hS :ð5cÞ
6PREFERENCES FOR SUSTAINABLY SOURCED SEAFOOD
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We use S o deno e he oldes age class. Fo he case o Wes e n Bal ic cod we speci y S¼7 yea s, ol-
lowing he ICES (2022a,2022b) s ock assessmen . Following Tah onen e al. (2018) and S oe en
e al. (2021), he numbe o ish ha is ha es ed om age sis gi en by
hs ¼qs
H
Be
xs :ð6Þ
The cons an s qsdeno e age-speci ic ca chabili y coe icien s. These cons an s depend on mesh size,
which we conside o be ixed. Mo eo e , H ≔PS
s¼1wshs is agg ega e ca ch, and Be
≔PS
s¼1qswsxs
is he “e icien biomass”(Tah onen e al., 2018; Zimme mann & Jø gensen, 2015), such ha H =Be
can be in e p e ed as he exploi a ion a e o he ishe y in yea .
3.4 |Fishe y dynamics unde open access
One o he wo managemen scena ios we conside is ( es ic ed) open access: he ishe y is subjec
o echnical egula ions such as gea es ic ions and seasonal closu es bu wi hou an e ec i e quo a
managemen (Quaas & Skonho , 2022; Reime & Wilen, 2013). The echnical egula ions e ec i ely
inc ease (ma ginal) ishing cos s, and only his is es ic ing ca ches compa ed o pu e open access.
We e e o his si ua ion as es ic ed open access, o simply open access. Unde es ic ed open
access, he ha es ed quan i y is de e mined by he ze o-p o i condi ion ha he p ice equals ishing
cos (Quaas & Skonho , 2022). Using he demand unc ion (1) and he cos unc ion (3), his condi-
ion becomes
aAχBσ
Hη
¼p ¼cB1
Hε
ð7Þ
F om his we ob ain he ish ca ch unde open access as a unc ion o he cu en biomass,
H ¼aAχ
c
1
εþη
B
1þσ
εþη
:ð8Þ
Using (8) and (6)in(5a)–(5c), we can w i e he dynamics o he ish popula ion ha es ed unde
open access in ma ix o m
x1, þ1
.
.
.
xsþ1, þ1
.
.
.
xS, þ1
0
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
@
1
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
A
¼
φx0
ðÞ0 0
.
.
...
...
...
..
.
.
0 αs 0
.
.
...
...
...
..
.
.
0 αS1αS
0
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
@
1
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
A
1
.
.
.
xs
.
.
.
xS
0
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
@
1
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
A
q1aAχ
c
1
εþηB
1þσ
εþη1
x1
.
.
.
qsaAχ
c
1
εþηB
1þσ
εþη1
xs
.
.
.
qSaAχ
c
1
εþηB
1þσ
εþη1
xS
0
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
B
@
1
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
A
:ð9Þ
He e, x0 is he spawning s ock biomass (SSB; Equa ion 4), and B is o al s ock biomass.
The dynamics o he ishe y unde ( es ic ed) open access can be simula ed, s a ing om he
cu en s a e desc ibed by he age-speci ic s ock numbe s in he ansi ion owa d a s eady s a e.
The eigen alues associa ed wi h he Jacobian o (9) e alua ed a s eady s a e p o ide in o ma ion
abou he s abili y p ope ies o he s eady s a e. I he s eady s a e is asymp o ically s able, he cha -
ac e is ic ime a which he ishe y app oaches he s eady s a e is gi en by he leading eigen alue
(Pimm, 1984).
DUBE ET AL.7
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3.5 |Fishe y dynamics unde economically op imal managemen
The second o he wo managemen scena ios we conside is ha o a ishe y ha is managed such
as o maximize he p esen alue o economic su plus, which is he sum o consume and p oduce
su pluses (Ande son, 1980; Copes, 1972; Jensen e al., 2019; K oe z e al., 2022; Quaas e al., 2018).
We e e o his as economically op imal o e icien managemen . Using δ o deno e he social dis-
coun a e, he economically op imal ca ches H a e de e mined by he solu ion o he dynamic op i-
miza ion p oblem
max
H
g
X
∞
¼0
1
1þδðÞ
aAχ
1ηBσ
H1η
c
1þεB1
H1þε
ð10Þ
subjec o ish popula ion dynamics (5a)–(5c), gi en ini ial ish popula ion size, and non-nega i i y
cons ain s H ≥0 and xs ≥0, s¼1,…,S, ¼0,…. Consume su plus is de i ed om he demand
unc ion (1) o equi alen ly om he indi ec u ili y unc ion (2); p oduce su plus om he cos
unc ion (3). As expendi u es o he consume s equal e enues o he ishe s, hey d op ou om
he wel a e unc ion. As he p ice o ish depends on ha es and biomass, which bo h a e con olled
in he op imal ishe y, he objec i e en angles he posi i e e ec o inc easing ca ch and s ock size o
consume s and o ishe s, who also bene i om highe p ices.
We quan i y he model pa ame e s empi ically using da a o he Wes e n Bal ic Sea and sol e
he op imiza ion p oblem (10) nume ically. The ime ho izon is se o an a bi a y alue long enough
ha a s eady s a e is eached, and esul s a e p esen ed only o he pe iod o he ansi ion owa d
he s eady s a e, which is a e abou 30 yea s. The nume ical op imiza ion is pe o med using he
s a e-o - he a in e io poin algo i hm implemen ed in Kni o ( e sion 14.0) wi h AMPL (By d
e al., 2006). P og amming codes a e p o ided in he online Appendix S1.
4|DATA AND METHODS
4.1 |Popula ion dynamics o Wes e n Bal ic cod s ock
The cod popula ion in he Wes e n Bal ic Sea has been subjec o o e ishing o many yea s and
ecen ly has been assessed as ecologically collapsed (Möllmann e al., 2021). Acco ding o he s ock
assessmen by he In e na ional Council o he Explo a ion o he Sea (ICES), he s ock has been o
se e al yea s below he spawne biomass Blim whe e ec ui men s a s o be impai ed (ICES, 2022a,
2022b).
We quan i y he pa ame e s o he age-s uc u ed ish popula ion model (5a)–(5c) based on he
da a p o ided by he ICES (2022a,2022b) s ock assessmen epo . The age-speci ic su i al a es
a e compu ed om he age-speci ic mo ali y a es Ms, which a e gi en in ICES (2022a,2022b), as
α¼exp Ms
ðÞ. Weigh s a age ws, which a e used o compu e he biomass, and he age speci ic ac-
ions o ma u e ish γsused o compu e spawning s ock biomass (4), a e di ec ly gi en in
ICES (2022a,2022b). Age-speci ic ca chabili ies qsa e de i ed om age-speci ic ishing mo ali ies
es ima ed by ICES (2022a,2022b), no malizing he ishing mo ali y o he la ges ish o one. The
speci ica ions o hese pa ame e s can be ound in he p og amming codes in he online
Appendix S1.
Fo he s ock- ec ui men model, we ollow ICES and assume ha ec ui men mono onically
inc eases wi h spawning s ock biomass i i is below Blim . In line wi h ICES (2022a,2022b), Blim is
de e mined as he a e age o lowes SSB in yea s wi h abo e a e age ec ui men (1990, 1991, 1993,
2016). The co esponding es ima e o he Wes e n Bal ic cod ishe y is Blim ¼15,067 ons.
Acco ding o he model used by ICES (2022a,2022b), ec ui men is cons an abo e he limi ing
8PREFERENCES FOR SUSTAINABLY SOURCED SEAFOOD
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Con as ing ishe y dynamics wi h and wi hou consume p e e ences o s ock sus ainabili y in
open access, we i s con as he ishe y dynamics o he Wes e n Bal ic cod ishe y o he ac ual
managemen egime, which is bes cha ac e ized as es ic ed open access (Quaas & Skonho , 2022),
o he ac ual demand unc ion and o a hypo he ical demand unc ion wi hou a consume p e e -
ences o sus ainably sou ced sea ood.
The esul s a e shown as a phase diag am (Figu e 2), plo ing ca ches and biological g ow h as
unc ions o spawning s ock biomass. The g een cu e shows he equilib ium yield o he ishe y.
This cu e is no symme ic as i would be in a s anda d logis ic g ow h equa ion, bu a he , i
shows a ypical skewness wi h a slow dec ease o equilib ium yield a high s ock sizes. The do s in
Figu e 2show da a om ICES (2022a,2022b) s ock assessmen . The ed cu e shows he ca ch
unde es ic ed open access as simula ed om he ull bioeconomic model, as summa ized in
Equa ion (9). As he model is es ima ed om he da a unde he assump ion o es ic ed open
access, i is no su p ise ha he model closely ollows he da a.
The blue cu e shows he ca ch unde es ic ed open access in he hypo he ical si ua ion whe e
consume demand would no change wi h ish s ock s a us. The demand shi e o his model a i-
an is calib a ed such ha he s eady s a e is he same as o he ull model. The blue cu e ha
shows he ca ch wi hou consume p e e ences o sus ainabili y has a s ikingly di e en shape om
he model wi h he eedback om s ock s a us o demand. In pa icula , ca ches would be much
lowe a high s ock sizes and much highe a small s ock sizes, as p ices would be a he high. The
o e all esul is ha he ishe y would ha e been much less esilien i he e ec o consume s
dec easing demand in esponse o declining ish popula ion was no p esen .
To mo e igo ously explo e his e ec o consume p e e ences o sea ood sus ainabili y in he
es ic ed open-access ishe y, we conside he dynamics as desc ibed by (9) in he neighbo hood o
he s eady s a e. The s eady s a e is asymp o ically s able i all eigen alues o he Jacobian ha e eal
pa s ha a e less han one in absolu e alue. In pa icula , s abili y equi es ha he la ges o he
nega i e eigen alues (i.e., he smalles in absolu e alue) is s ill smalle han one (in absolu e e ms).
Pimm (1984) p oposes o measu e he esilience by his la ges eigen alue. The smalle i is, he mo e
esilien is he s eady s a e o he ishe y unde es ic ed open access. Somewha mo e in ui i e is o
compu e, om he la ges eigen alue, he cha ac e is ic ime a which he ishe y asymp o ically
app oaches he s eady s a e. The la ge he cha ac e is ic ime, he less s able he s eady s a e is.
We measu e he consume p e e ences o sea ood sus ainabili y by he elas ici y σa which
demand inc eases wi h s ock size. Empi ically i is σ¼0:45 o cod. We ask how he s abili y o he
s eady s a e, as measu ed by he cha ac e is ic ime, changes wi h σ, keeping he s eady-s a e ish
popula ion size cons an .
The esul s a e shown in Figu e 5. We ind ha he s onge he consume p e e ences o a
heal hy s ock s a us, ha is, he la ge he s ock elas ici y o demand, σ, he as e is he cha ac e is ic
ime a which he ishe y app oaches he s eady s a e. In pa icula con as ing he ac ual ishe y wi h
σ¼0:45 o a ishe y wi hou he consume p e e ences o sus ainable sou ced sea ood, σ¼0, he
cha ac e is ic ime o app oach he s eady s a e would be mo e han six imes longe , ha is, mo e
han 30 yea s ins ead o 5 yea s in he ac ual ishe y. This sugges s ha consume p e e ences o a
heal hy s ock s a us play an impo an ole in s abilizing he ishe y unde es ic ed open access.
Con as ing ishe y dynamics wi h and wi hou consume p e e ences o s ock sus ainabili y
unde op imal ishe y managemen , we nex con as he ishe y dynamics o he Wes e n Bal ic cod
ishe y o op imal ishe y managemen . Op imal ishe y managemen , he eby, is de ined as ishing
ha maximizes he ne p esen alue o economic su plus om he ishe y, Equa ion (10). We use a
social discoun a e o 2%pe yea . Again, we summa ize he esul s in a phase diag am, shown in
Figu e 6, plo ing ca ches and ish popula ion g ow h as unc ions o spawning s ock biomass.
As in Figu e 2, he g een cu e shows he equilib ium yield o he ishe y also in Figu e 5bu
now o e a la ge ange o s ock sizes. This shows ha he un ished biomass o he Wes e n Bal ic
cod popula ion is es ima ed o be 270,000 ons. The do s again show he da a om ICES (2022a,
DUBE ET AL.15
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2022b) s ock assessmen , and he ed cu e shows he ca ch unde es ic ed open access, as simu-
la ed om he ull bioeconomic model.
The h ee o he cu es show esul s o dynamic op imiza ion s a ing om he ac ual ish popu-
la ion in 2021 o h ee scena ios. The ull model includes bo h a cos -based s ock e ec —as ishing
Cha ac e is ic ime o app oach s eady s a e
Consume p e e ence o sea ood sus ainabili y, σ
slowe app oach
less esilien
as e app oach
mo e esilien
Cha ac e is ic ime [yea s]
0.5.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
FIGURE 5 Resilience o he ishe y in unde es ic ed open access, as measu ed by he cha ac e is ic ime a which he
ishe y app oaches he s eady s a e (Pimm, 1984).
op imal ca ch, ull model
no consume s ock e ec
no consume o cos s ock e ec s
ca ch unde es ic ed open access
equilib ium yield
ICES s ock assessmen
s
p
awne biomass [1000 ons]
ca ch [1000 ons]
250
200
150
100
50
0
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
FIGURE 6 Phase diag am summa izing he dynamics o he Wes e n Bal ic cod ishe y unde es ic ed open access and
unde economically op imal managemen . The g een cu e shows he equilib ium yield o he ishe y de i ed om he age-
s uc u ed ish popula ion model wi h ixed age-speci ic ca chabili ies. The do s show da a om ICES (2022a,2022b) s ock
assessmen . The ed cu e shows he ca ch unde es ic ed open access as simula ed om he ull bioeconomic model. The
o he cu es show he ou come o dynamic op imiza ion s a ing om he ac ual ish popula ion in 2021 o h ee scena ios,
namely he ull model (black cu e), only cos -based s ock e ec (i.e., se ing σ¼0, blue cu e), and no s ock e ec
(i.e., se ing σ¼0 and assuming a cons an s ock biomass in he cos unc ion 3, yellow cu e).
16 PREFERENCES FOR SUSTAINABLY SOURCED SEAFOOD
14678276, 0, Downloaded om h ps://onlinelib a y.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajae.12544, Wiley Online Lib a y on [23/05/2025]. See he Te ms and Condi ions (h ps://onlinelib a y.wiley.com/ e ms-and-condi ions) on Wiley Online Lib a y o ules o use; OA a icles a e go e ned by he applicable C ea i e Commons License
cos s (3) dec ease wi h s ock size—and he consume s ock e ec . This is con as ed wi h a model
whe e we hypo he ically swi ch o he consume s ock e ec , by se ing σ¼0, and a hi d one whe e
we also swi ch o he usual cos -based s ock e ec , addi ionally eplacing B in he cos unc ion (3)
by a cons an .
In his la e model, he s eady s a e is close o he maximum sus ainable yield, as could be
expec ed o he ela i ely low social discoun a e o 2% pe yea . The cos -based s ock e ec shi s
he s eady s a e o a s ock size la ge han he one ha would deli e he maximum sus ainable yield.
This educes he ishing cos s bu a he expense o a sligh ly educed equilib ium yield. This model
wi hou consume s ock e ec closely esembles he s anda d bioeconomic model whe e he s ock
e ec comes om ha es ing cos s only (Cla k & Mun o, 1975; G a on e al., 2007).
The ull model ha also includes he consume s ock e ec leads o a ha es ha is much lowe ,
a any gi en s ock size, han op imal ha es ing in he s anda d model ha does no exhibi a con-
sume s ock e ec . The eason is ha a highe s ock size would s ongly inc ease he ish p ice and
hus he economic bene i de i ed om he ishe y. This wa an s a s ong sac i ice o yield, because
ca ch om he mo e sus ainable ishe y is much mo e aluable o he consume s.
To u he analyze he dynamics o he ishe y unde economically op imal managemen in he
di e en scena ios, Figu e 7shows he de elopmen o spawning s ock biomass (panel a), Simpson
di e si y o he ish popula ion age s uc u e (panel b), cod ca ch (panel c), and economic su plus
(panel d) as unc ions o ime. The ull model esul s in a as e and mo e p onounced ebuilding o
he s ock (Figu e 7a). Including he consume s ock e ec esul s in lowe ca ches o e he comple e
ime pa h as compa ed o igno ing his e ec (Figu e 7c). Economic su plus shows he in e es ing
pa e n ha i is lowe in he ull model o he i s h ee yea s, as ebuilding o he s ock has p io -
i y in he beginning o he simula ion (Figu e 7d). S a ing om 2025 onwa d, he posi i e ou comes
yea
spawne biomass [1000 ons]
(a)
es ic ed open access
no s ock e ec s
no consume s ock e ec
ull model
54020502
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
yea
Simpson biodi e si y
(b)
es ic ed open access
no s ock e ec s
no consume s ock e ec
ull model
54020502
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
y
ea
ca ch [1000 ons]
(c)
es ic ed open access
no s ock e ec s
no consume s ock e ec
ull model
54020502
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
y
ea
economic su plus [million eu os]
(d)
es ic ed open access
no s ock e ec s
no consume s ock e ec
ull model
54020502
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
FIGURE 7 Time pa h o spawning s ock biomass (a), Simpson biodi e si y index (b), ca ch (c), and economic su plus
(d) o di e en model con igu a ions.
DUBE ET AL.17
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in e ms o s ock size, economic su plus as well as biodi e si y (Figu e 7c) s a o ma e ialize. Unde
ull op imiza ion, economic su plus is lowe han in any o he o he scena ios o a s ock ebuilding
phase o app oxima ely 3 o 4 yea s, and highe only he ea e . O e coming such a ansi ion phase
may be a challenge o ishe ies policy. Ye , in p esen alue e ms, wel a e is mo e han doubled i
managemen would ollow he ully op imal pa h.
5.3 |E ec s on he age s uc u e o he ish popula ion
We conclude he analysis by s udying he e ec o he di e en model scena ios on he age s uc u e
o he ish popula ion. Figu e 7shows ha , a e a ansi ion pe iod o abou 5 yea s, he age s uc-
u e o he ish popula ion unde economically op imal managemen wi h consume p e e ences o
s ock sus ainabili y is subs an ially mo e di e se han in he o he scena ios. This e ec becomes pa -
icula ly clea ly isible in s eady s a e. The esul s o he s eady s a e a e shown in Figu e 8.
The es ic ed open-access ishe y leads o a s ongly unca ed age s uc u e, domina ed by
young and e y small ish (Figu e 8, panel a). Such a popula ion s uc u e is a he suscep ible o
en i onmen al luc ua ions (Ba neche e al., 2018) and possibly de imen al e ec s o clima e change
(Möllmann e al., 2021). Op imal ishing would lead o a mo e balanced age s uc u e, e en when
igno ing consume p e e ences o s ock sus ainabili y (Figu e 8, panel b). Including ha p e e ence
would lead o an age s uc u e o he ish popula ion whe e he la ges and oldes age class con ib-
u es a subs an ial ac ion o he o e all s ock (Figu e 8, panel c).
5.4 |Sensi i i y analysis
As he main con ibu ion o he p esen pape is o quan i y he magni ude o he consume s ock
e ec o ishe ies ou comes, i is impo an o ge an imp ession o he unce ain y o he quan i a-
i e esul s. One ele an unce ain y conce ns biological ish popula ion dynamics, which a ises in
pa icula due o he e ec s o clima e change (Möllmann e al., 2021; Voss e al., 2019). This unce -
ain y has been s udied elsewhe e and is no o pa icula in e es o he esea ch ques ion o his
pape . We hus a he ocus on he unce ain y in he economic pa o he model.
Speci ically, he aim is o assess he sensi i i y o esul s wi h espec o he elas ici ies o he
demand and cos unc ion ha a e ela ed o he consume s ock e ec , and he o dina y s ock e ec
on ishing cos s. Thus, we a e in e es ed in he unce ain y o he s ock elas ici y o demand, σ; he
p ice lexibili y, η; and he elas ici y o ma ginal ha es ing cos s, ε. To assess he pa ame e unce -
ain y wi h espec o hese elas ici ies, we p esen esul s om a Mon e Ca lo sensi i i y analysis,
based on 1000 andomly d awn pa ame e se s om no mal dis ibu ions wi h means gi en by he
es ic ed open access
a
g
e[
y
ea s]
numbe o ish [millions]
(a)
12345678 12345678 12345678
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
no consume s ock e ec
a
g
e[
y
ea s]
(b)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
ull model
a
g
e[
y
ea s]
(c)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
FIGURE 8 Age s uc u e o he s eady-s a e ish popula ion in h ee model scena ios.
18 PREFERENCES FOR SUSTAINABLY SOURCED SEAFOOD
14678276, 0, Downloaded om h ps://onlinelib a y.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajae.12544, Wiley Online Lib a y on [23/05/2025]. See he Te ms and Condi ions (h ps://onlinelib a y.wiley.com/ e ms-and-condi ions) on Wiley Online Lib a y o ules o use; OA a icles a e go e ned by he applicable C ea i e Commons License
es ima es epo ed in Tables 2and 3, and s anda d de ia ions gi en by he espec i e s anda d e o s.
Fo each o hese pa ame e se s, we compu ed he op imal s eady s a e. Figu e 9shows he his o-
g am (wi h 10 bins) o he esul ing alues o he op imal spawne biomass. This analysis e eals a
conside able unce ain y o esul s: The s anda d de ia ion is 33,400 ons, abou 19% o he op imal
s eady s a e s ock size o he s anda d pa ame e se , which is 174,400 ons. The eby, he dis ibu-
ion o possible op imal s eady s a e s ock sizes is skewed: The di e ence be ween he uppe bound
o he con idence in e al (abou 256,000 ons) o he mean esul is la ge han he di e ence
be ween he mean esul and he lowe bound o he con idence in e al (abou 112,000 ons).
Ano he ele an pa ame e is he discoun a e, which we ha e se o δ¼2%pe yea in he e -
e ence pa ame e se . Va ying he discoun a e, we ind an almos linea decline o he op imal
s eady s a e s ock size wi h he discoun a e: The op imal s eady s a e spawning s ock is 182,000 ons
o an in e es a e o ze o and 150,000 ons o an in e es a e o 10% pe yea .
6|DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION
We ha e de eloped a model ha seamlessly in eg a es consume p e e ences o s ock sus ainabili y
es ima ed om a choice expe imen wi h an empi ical age-s uc u ed bioeconomic ishe y model.
We ha e applied his model o he case o he Wes e n Bal ic cod ishe y and de i ed insigh s in o
how consume p e e ences o sus ainably sou ced sea ood changes ishe y dynamics unde
( es ic ed) open access and unde economically op imal managemen .
We ound ha a “consume s ock e ec ”a ises, which s abilizes a ishe y unde open access and
which dec eases ca ches unde economically e icien managemen . Fo he case o he Wes e n Bal-
ic cod ishe y, and conside ing he p e e ences o Ge man ish consume s, we ind ha hese e ec s
a e o la ge magni ude. Swi ching o he consume p e e ences o s ock sus ainabili y, he cha ac-
e is ic ime o app oach he es ic ed open access s eady s a e would be mo e han six imes longe
han o he ac ual ishe y whe e consume s ca e abou he sus ainabili y o he s ock ha p o ides
he ish. Swi ching o he e ec ha he p ice would dec ease when he s ock is o e ished would
lead o much highe ca ches a low s ock sizes, possibly leading o a as collapse o he esou ce
s ock. We conclude ha he consume p e e ence o sus ainably sou ced sea ood has he impo an
e ec ha i enhances he esilience o he poo ly managed ishe y.
o
p
imal s ead
y
s a e s
p
awne biomass [1000 ons]
ela i e equency
250
200
150
100
50
0
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
FIGURE 9 His og am showing he esul s o a Mon e-Ca lo sensi i i y analysis wi h espec o pa ame e unce ain y in
he elas ici ies ele an o he s ock e ec : he s ock elas ici y o demand, p ice lexibili y, and elas ici y o ma ginal ha es ing
cos . The g aph shows he ela i e equency o spawne biomass in op imal s eady s a e in 10 bins. The esul o he s anda d
pa ame e se is an op imal s eady s a e s ock size o 174,400 ons, shown as dashed line.
DUBE ET AL.19
14678276, 0, Downloaded om h ps://onlinelib a y.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajae.12544, Wiley Online Lib a y on [23/05/2025]. See he Te ms and Condi ions (h ps://onlinelib a y.wiley.com/ e ms-and-condi ions) on Wiley Online Lib a y o ules o use; OA a icles a e go e ned by he applicable C ea i e Commons License
Conside ing he case o economically op imal managemen , we ound ha he consume s ock
e ec s ongly educes op imal ca ches o less han hal he amoun ha a s anda d model wi hou
consume s ock e ec would imply o he pa icula ishe y s udied he e. Acco dingly, he op imal
s eady s a e o he Wes e n Bal ic cod ishe y is much highe han he s ock ha would deli e he
maximum sus ainable yield. This would also bene i biodi e si y, as i would lead o a mo e a o able
age s uc u e o he ish popula ion, wi h olde indi iduals mo e abundan han a p esen . This, in
u n, could also con ibu e o he esilience o he s ock agains en i onmen al luc ua ions
(Ba neche e al., 2018). We conclude ha economically op imal ishe ies managemen , which ade-
qua ely akes in o accoun consume p e e ences o sus ainably sou ced sea ood, should be mo e
conse a i e han implied by pu ely biological models.
In case o he Wes e n Bal ic cod ishe y, managemen is mo ing owa d ecosys em-based ishe -
ies managemen (EBFM), and scien i ic ad ice inc easingly akes in o accoun economic conside -
a ions. Ou s udy sugges s ha his should also conside mo e ho oughly he consume p e e ences
o sus ainably sou ced ish p oduc s. I also con ibu es o he e idence ha managemen o he
Wes e n Bal ic should se o al allowable ca ches a much mo e conse a i e le els han p e iously
and ha he key challenge emains o educe he ishing mo ali y o sus ainable le els, which would
e en ually allow o a ebuilding o he s ock. Acco ding o ou model, he ansi ion dynamics ake
3 o 4 yea s un il economic su plus, including he consume s ock e ec , ou pe o ms he al e na-
i es. Du ing his pe iod wi h low ca ches and p o i s, b idging solu ions o he ishe y need o be
ound.
The demand unc ion in ou model has he usual downwa d-sloping p ope y: The p ice ha
consume s a e willing o pay o a kilog am o ish is dec easing wi h he o e all quan i y on he
ma ke . Dao e al. (2023) show ha his e ec ends o go in he opposi e di ec ion as he “consume
s ock e ec ,”which is he ocus o he p esen pape : Gene ally, ca ches inc ease wi h s ock size, bu
his e ec is a enua ed i he p ice lexibili y is high. Acco dingly, a high p ice lexibili y dec eases
he esilience o he ishe y unde open access (Dao e al., 2023). We would expec p ice lexibili y o
be high i he ish is p ima ily sold on a local ma ke o i ew subs i u es a e a ailable o he ish
unde conside a ion. In such si ua ions, he conside a ion o he consume s ock e ec may be e en
mo e impo an .
Na u ally, ou analysis comes wi h a numbe o limi a ions. One is ha he disc e e choice expe -
imen is a s a ed p e e ence me hod, which always comes wi h he ques ion abou he ex e nal alid-
i y o esul s. We a e con iden ha consume s ac ually do ca e o he s a us o he ish s ock, as his
is con i med by e ealed p e e ence s udies (Asche e al., 2015). The exac magni ude o he e ec
may be o e - o unde es ima ed, hough. Mo eo e , ou model uses a pa icula speci ica ion o he
demand unc ion, in his case an iso-elas ic speci ica ion. This means ha we assume consume s a e
always willing o pay mo e i he s ock is highe —e en i he s ock is well wi hin sa e biological
limi s. This means ha he quan i a i e esul s, especially on op imal managemen a la ge s ock
sizes, should no be aken oo li e ally. Also, we ha e igno ed ha consume s ha e a p e e ence o
la ge ish (Quaas e al., 2013; Zimme mann & Heino, 2013), which may ha e simila e ec s as he
consume p e e ences o s ock sus ainabili y (Zimme mann e al., 2011a). A simila unce ain y
applies o he biological pa o he model. Clima e change is imposing a se ious h ea o he cod
popula ions in he Bal ic Sea. Op imal managemen would ha e o espond o clima e change (Voss
e al., 2019; Voss e al., 2021). Al hough his does no quali a i ely change ou conclusions abou he
e ec o a consume p e e ences o s ock sus ainabili y, he quan i a i e esul s o he Wes e n Bal-
ic cod ishe y will likely ha e o be adjus ed in he u u e due o clima e change e ec s.
Also in e ms o consume p e e ences, he Wes e n Bal ic cod ishe y has some special cha ac-
e is ics: Ge man households a e pe haps mo e en i onmen ally conscious han o he s. The e o e,
he quan i a i e esul s migh no be ep esen a i e o o he ishe ies. Ye , a ecen e iew ound a
willingness o pay o sus ainable ood also o A ica, Ame ica, Asia, and Eu ope ou side Ge many
(Cecchini e al., 2018), indica ing ha simila e ec s can be expec ed o o he ishe ies as well.
20 PREFERENCES FOR SUSTAINABLY SOURCED SEAFOOD
14678276, 0, Downloaded om h ps://onlinelib a y.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajae.12544, Wiley Online Lib a y on [23/05/2025]. See he Te ms and Condi ions (h ps://onlinelib a y.wiley.com/ e ms-and-condi ions) on Wiley Online Lib a y o ules o use; OA a icles a e go e ned by he applicable C ea i e Commons License
In sum, we conclude ha ishe y managemen should ake he consume p e e ences o sus ain-
ably sou ced sea ood se iously and acco dingly se ishing quo as mo e conse a i ely o gene a e
he ex a alue associa ed wi h sus ainably sou ced sea ood.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We a e g a e ul o ui ul discussions a he 7 h Wo kshop on Age-s uc u ed Models in Na u al
Resou ce Economics, Wü zbu g, Ge many, and he XIV annual BIOECON con e ence, San iago de
Compos ela, Spain. The s udy was unded by he Ge man Fede al Minis y o Educa ion and
Resea ch (BMBF) unde g an numbe s 01UT1410, 01LC1826A and 01LC2326A. Open Access
unding enabled and o ganized by P ojek DEAL.
ORCID
Ma in Quaas h ps://o cid.o g/0000-0003-0812-8829
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SUPPORTING INFORMATION
Addi ional suppo ing in o ma ion can be ound online in he Suppo ing In o ma ion sec ion a he
end o his a icle.
How o ci e his a icle: Dube, Isha, Ma in Quaas, Julian Sagebiel, and Rudi Voss. 2025.
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ajae.12544
DUBE ET AL.23
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