G azini, Chia a; Gua ini, Giulio
A icle
En i onmen al policy and g een expo compe i i eness:
The enhancing e ec o economic complexi y
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
Associazione Economia ci ile, Rome
Sugges ed Ci a ion: G azini, Chia a; Gua ini, Giulio (2025) : En i onmen al policy and g een expo
compe i i eness: The enhancing e ec o economic complexi y, PSL Qua e ly Re iew, ISSN
2037-3643, Associazione Economia ci ile, Rome, Vol. 78, Iss. 312, pp. 27-50,
h ps://doi.o g/10.13133/2037-3643/18917
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ol. 78 n. 312 (Ma ch 2025)
En i onmen al policy and g een expo compe i i eness:
The enhancing e ec o economic complexi y
CHIARA GRAZINI, GIULIO GUARINI
Abs ac :
De elopmen depends on a na ion’s abili y o p oduce
sophis ica ed goods, making economic complexi y c ucial.
Conside ed as an ecological sophis ica ion o echnological,
social, and cul u al ac o s, ecological s uc u al change, he
co e o G een New De elopmen alism, can add ess
en i onmen al and socio-economic challenges, pa icula ly in
de eloping coun ies. As g een policies can ac as d i e s o
s uc u al changes, eco-inno a ions, and in e na ional g een
compe i i eness, his pape examines he impac o g een policies
on g een expo compe i i eness, es ing he s ic ly s ong
e sion o he Po e hypo hesis and e alua ing he mode a ing
e ec o economic complexi y and pollu ion in ensi y. This pape
used a panel da ase co e ing 40 OECD coun ies om 1990 o
2016, and he esul s indica e ha s ingen en i onmen al
egula ions posi i ely impac g een expo s only in he medium
e m. When he mode a ing ac o s a e in oduced, s ingen
g een policies become e ec i e in he sho e m, and hei
posi i e impac inc eases wi h he coun y’s economic
complexi y and pollu ion in ensi y. Combining s ingen
en i onmen al policies and g een economic sophis ica ion could
allow o in eg a ing economic g ow h, sus ainable p oduc ion,
and in e na ional g een compe i i eness.
G azini: Uni e si y o Tuscia, Vi e bo (I aly),
email: c.g azini@uni us.i
Gua ini: Uni e si y o Tuscia, Vi e bo (I aly),
email: giuliogua ini@uni us.i
How o ci e his a icle:
G azini C., Gua ini G. (2024), “En i onmen al policy and
g een expo compe i i eness: The enhancing e ec o
economic complexi y”, PSL Qua e ly Re iew, 78 (312), pp.
27-50.
DOI: h ps://doi.o g/10.13133/2037-3643/18917
JEL codes:
O11, O14, Q56, Q57, F14
Keywo ds:
in e na ional g een compe i i eness, En i onmen al
Policy S ingency index, mode a ing ac o s, economic
complexi y, ecological s uc u al change
Jou nal homepage:
h ps:// osa.uni oma1.i / osa04/psl_qua e ly_ e iew
Al hough leading global ins i u ions such as he Eu opean Commission, he In e na ional Ene gy
Agency, he Uni ed Na ions, he En i onmen al P o ec ion Agency, and he O ganiza ion o
Economic Coope a ion and De elopmen (OECD) ha e been in ensi ely wo king o add ess he
mul i- ace ed challenges posed by clima e change, bo h a he local and he global le els (Bashi
e al., 2020), he in e na ional communi y con inues o g apple wi h sus ainable de elopmen
challenges, so ha i becomes c i ical o comp ehend he complex in e play be ween economic
de elopmen and he ecological ansi ion. The po en ial bene i s o economic de elopmen , such
as c ea ing employmen oppo uni ies, inc easing incomes, and educing po e y, mus no
comp omise he quali y o li e o u u e gene a ions o he heal h o ou plane . Expe s hus
con end ha heigh ened echnology adop ion, signi ican economic expansion and a shi om
pollu ion-in ensi e indus ial ac i i ies o se ice-o ien ed economies will subs an ially educe
Special issue on p ema u e deindus ializa ion and clima e change: global No h and Sou h pe spec i es
28 En i onmen al policy and g een expo compe i i eness: The enhancing e ec o economic complexi y
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
en i onmen al pollu ion (Agozie e al., 2022). The e o e, p omo ing a mo e sus ainable and
equi able g ow h pa h, whe e economic ad ancemen aligns wi h en i onmen al p ese a ion
and socie al well-being, is o he u mos impo ance (Wang e al., 2023).
A coun y’s p oduc i e s uc u e embodies i s echnological and p oduc i e capaci ies,
shaping i s pa hways o di e si ica ion and delinea ing i s po en ial o economic de elopmen
(Hidalgo e al., 2007). Economic de elopmen heo is s like Rosens ein-Rodan (1943), Singe
(1950), and Hi schman (1958) highligh ed he ela ionship be ween a na ion’s p oduc i e
s uc u e and i s income dis ibu ion capabili ies, emphasising “s uc u al ans o ma ions” as
c ucial o economic de elopmen . Acco ding o hese au ho s, de elopmen and g ow h can be
unde s ood as a p ocess o s uc u al change o he p oduc i e s uc u e, whe ein esou ces a e
ealloca ed om lowe p oduc i i y ac i i ies o highe p oduc i i y ones. In pa icula , he New
De elopmen alism heo y emphasises he pa e ns o s uc u al ans o ma ion om he p ima y
sec o , which elies on he exploi a ion o na u al esou ces, o he mode n sec o , ypically
ep esen ed by he manu ac u ing indus y. Indus ializa ion is undamen al o economic
de elopmen , p oposing a causal ela ionship be ween he g ow h o manu ac u ing ou pu and
he enhancemen o bo h GDP and labou p oduc i i y. In con as o he diminishing e u ns o
he ag icul u al sec o , manu ac u ing sec o s a e cha ac e ized by signi ican inc easing e u ns
and a high a e o echnological change and inno a ion, as well as s ong syne gies and linkages
d i en by labou di ision, which play a pi o al ole in os e ing economic de elopmen (Angeles-
Cas o e al., 2023). Technological change is acknowledged as cumula i e and pa h-dependen ,
balancing dis up i e inno a ions ha eshape de elopmen al ajec o ies (pa h-dis up ing) wi h
cumula i e inno a ions ha consolida e exis ing s eng hs (pa h- ein o cing), equen ly c ea ing
signi ican en y ba ie s o new compe i o s (A hu , 1983; Scho and S einmuelle , 2018). Pa h
dependence mani es s h ough he pe sis ence and en enchmen o speci ic echnological
choices, d i en by inc easing e u ns associa ed wi h he p oduc ion o adop ion o echnologies
and p oduc s, as well as by posi i e eedback mechanisms and ne wo k ex e nali ies (Cas aldi e
al., 2011).
Mo eo e , his mode n sec o is no ed o i s subs an ial po en ial o enhance labou
p oduc i i y h ough inc easing p oduc i e sophis ica ion and economic complexi y (B esse -
Pe ei a, 2015, 2019). The s uc u al ans o ma ion owa d mo e complex indus ies equi es
specialized inpu s like knowledge, in as uc u e, and labou aining, c ea ing signi ican ba ie s
o less de eloped na ions. This highligh s he need o ac i e s a e in e en ion o o e come hese
challenges and p omo e economic di e si ica ion (Ca son, 2010). Less de eloped coun ies ace
cons ain s in di e si ying owa d sophis ica ed goods due o hei poo ly in eg a ed economic
s uc u e (Bo a e al., 2018); s uc u al change is pa h-dependen , and achie ing compe i i eness
in complex goods demands ime and lea ning new capabili ies. The need o public in e en ion
is e en mo e ob ious when we conside en i onmen al sus ainabili y, since economic
de elopmen should be g ounded in s uc u al ans o ma ions ha simul aneously mode nize
he p oduc i e sys em and add ess clima e change and i s associa ed isks (Rome o and
G amkow, 2021).
Ecological mac oeconomics explo es how o achie e en i onmen al sus ainabili y and
economic s abili y. While a s and o li e a u e highligh s how g een g ow h may os e cleane
p oduc ion, job c ea ion, income g ow h, and po e y alle ia ion in de eloping coun ies by
educing esou ce use and ossil uels (Ba bie , 2019) and c i iques i s easibili y, bo h sides ag ee
on he necessi y o e ec i e go e nmen in e en ion o guide economies owa d deca boniza ion
and long- e m s abili y (Obe holze , 2023). In pa icula , G een New De elopmen alism aims o
iden i y an ecologically sus ainable g ow h pa h by in eg a ing economic de elopmen wi h
C. G azini, G. Gua ini 29
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
en i onmen al sus ainabili y and emphasizing ne -ze o g eenhouse emissions, balance o
paymen s s abili y, and he ad ancemen o p oduc i e s uc u al sophis ica ion (G azini e al.,
2024). Focusing on clima e change and he cu en ecological c ises, ecological s uc u al change
is posi ed by Gua ini and O ei o (2023) as a iable solu ion o en i onmen al and social
challenges. P omo ing he eloca ion o labou and esou ces om adi ional (“b own”) sec o s
o mode n (“g een”) ones, ecological s uc u al change is impe a i e o enhancing he
en i onmen al aspec s o p oduc ion ou pu . Wi hin his pe spec i e, ecological s uc u al change
aligns wi h en i onmen al objec i es and se es as a s a egic manoeu e o i ms o na iga e
he e ol ing economic landscape; his ensu es hei long- e m iabili y and in e na ional
compe i i eness h ough s a egies based on g een inno a ions because p e ailing echnological
app oaches o clima e change mi iga ion depend on he unsus ainable deple ing non enewable
esou ces (G azini e al., 2024).
In pa icula , he escala ing challenges o clima e change necessi a e a mo e p oac i e ole
om ins i u ions and a se o public policies o achie e en i onmen al objec i es while os e ing
social and echnological de elopmen (Fon ana and Sawye , 2016). This need is e en mo e
subs an ial o se e al de eloping and eme ging coun ies whe e he ecological s uc u al
ans o ma ion is mo e di icul ; and i is pa icula ly he case o La in Ame ican coun ies, which,
due o a p ema u e de-indus ialisa ion
1
p ocess, ha e seen an inc eased eliance on he
p oduc ion and expo o p ima y goods and low- ech manu ac u ed p oduc s and an in e sion o
he sophis ica ion p ocess o he p oduc i e s uc u e (Johnson and Papageo giou, 2020; O ei o
e al., 2020a) and whe e ecological c isis exace ba es and in ensi ies he s uc u al dispa i ies ha
de ine hei socio-economic de elopmen . The e o e, ECLAC (2020) highligh s he need o a “big
push o sus ainabili y” ha is based on coo dina ing policies o mobilise and expedi e sus ainable
in es men s. These in es men s aim o c ea e a i uous cycle o economic g ow h, inc eased
income, job c ea ion, and educed inequali ies and s uc u al dispa i ies while p ese ing and
egene a ing he na u al esou ce base essen ial o de elopmen . The goal o his s a egy is o
enhance echnological capabili ies and p omo e esilien , low-ca bon solu ions while suppo ing
a mo e di e si ied, complex, and compe i i e in eg a ion in o he global economy. As empi ically
obse ed by Rome o and G amkow (2021), a well-es ablished p oduc i e sys em and a b oad
ange o p oduc i e capabili ies will c ea e a ou able condi ions o g een inno a ions and
s uc u al change owa ds mo e complex high- ech goods, leading o a educ ion in he le el o
g eenhouse emissions. So, p omo ing economic complexi y h ough g een indus ial policies is
c ucial o sus ainable de elopmen , add essing social, economic, and en i onmen al dimensions
while os e ing inno a ion and di e si ica ion.
Wi hin his amewo k, Rennings (2000) a gues ha echnology-push and ma ke -pull ac o s
do no p o ide enough incen i es o de elop complex g een inno a ions. Ecological policies mus
anscend compensa o y measu es o nega i e ex e nali ies, ac ing ins ead as d i e s o
s uc u al changes and inno a ions o acili a e he en i onmen al ans o ma ion o p oduc ion
sys ems (Gua ini, 2020). The Po e hypo hesis pos ula es his c ucial ole, pa icula ly he s ong
e sion, which posi s ha egula o y policies can os e en i onmen al inno a ions and acili a e
he ecological ansi ion by c ea ing new economic oppo uni ies suppo ing in e na ional
compe i i eness (Po e and Van de Linde, 1995). Howe e , Pe oni e al. (2019) asse ha he
1
In he La in Ame ican coun ies, he Du ch disease is conside ed one o he main causes o p ema u e
deindus aliza ion, ha is, “a educ ion o he sha e o manu ac u ing indus y in ou pu and employmen be o e he
“Lewis’s poin ” is eached” (Gua ini and O ei o, 2023, p. 2). In pa icula , he o e alua ion o he exchange a e, d i en
by he p oduc ion and expo o na u al- esou ce-in ensi e goods, unde mines he p ice compe i i eness o he
manu ac u ing sec o , he eby comp omising in es men p o i abili y and widening he echnological gap.
30 En i onmen al policy and g een expo compe i i eness: The enhancing e ec o economic complexi y
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
alidi y o he Po e hypo hesis canno be uni e sally es ablished, as he p o i abili y cons uc
may be signi ican ly in luenced by en i onmen al egula ion, bo h posi i ely and nega i ely;
mo eo e , nume ous o he ac o s, such as pollu ion in ensi y, subs an ially impac his cons uc ,
which can ei he alida e o e u e he hypo hesis.
In e na ional compe i i eness is shaped by bo h p ice and nonp ice ac o s, which a e
enhanced by g een ac i i ies (Blecke , 2016; Gua ini and Po cile, 2016). G een ini ia i es educe
uni p oduc ion cos s and c ea e new business oppo uni ies, bols e ing p ice compe i i eness in
manu ac u ing indus ies (G amkow, 2020). Simul aneously, imp o ed en i onmen al e iciency
s eng hens nonp ice compe i i eness, d i ing expo g ow h by enabling he p oduc ion o
seconda y aw ma e ials, inc easing employmen a es, and accele a ing ou pu g ow h (Dá ila-
Fe nández e al., 2023). Indeed, se e al adi ional sec o s cu en ly possessing subs an ial
compa a i e ad an ages a e lagging in g een con e sion, indica ing ha hey may isk losing hei
compe i i e edge (Fankhause e al., 2013). Con e sely, coun ies ha expo g een p oduc s a e
well-posi ioned o gain a compe i i e ad an age (Mealy and Tey elboym, 2022). E en examining
he ene gy ansi ion alone, Obe holze (2023) sugges s ha g een policies can enhance he
esilience o he balance o paymen s by imp o ing he cu en accoun ; such policies also ha e
he po en ial o s imula e in e na ional compe i i eness, o e ing a p omising de elopmen
s a egy o eme ging economies (Obe holze , 2023). In pa icula , Cos an ini and Mazzan i
(2012) obse e ha en i onmen al policies, especially hose ocusing on inno a ion, play a c ucial
ole in enhancing g een expo s, an e ec ha he wo au ho s de ine as he s ic ly s ong e sion.
Howe e , o he au ho s’ knowledge, he d i e s o g een in e na ional compe i i eness a e s ill
li le s udied in he li e a u e, and ew wo ks ha e e alua ed he possible mode a ing ac o s. To
ill his gap, his pape wan s o e i y he s ic ly s ong e sion o he Po e hypo heses using a
panel da ase ex ac ed om he OECD da abase o 40 coun ies co e ing 1990-2016. Ou
in e es is o examine whe he en i onmen al egula ion could di ec ly suppo g een
in e na ional compe i i eness and he indi ec impac o possible mode a ing ac o s, such as
pollu ing in ensi y. Acco ding o Hidalgo and Hausmann (2009), a na ion’s de elopmen al
ajec o y depends on i s capaci y o acqui e he essen ial capabili ies o p oducing a di e se
a ay o highly sophis ica ed goods. Hence, he complexi y o he na ion’s p oduc i e s uc u e is
a c ucial d i e o de elopmen (Felipe e al., 2012). The e o e, highe economic complexi y also
signi ies enhanced g een p oduc ion capabili ies, which may acili a e echnological
ad ancemen s owa ds a g eene economy (Doğan e al., 2022). Wi hin his amewo k, he no ion
o ecological s uc u al change can be in e p e ed as an ecological sophis ica ion encompassing
social, cul u al, and, in pa icula , echnological dimensions. Leading complex economies,
cha ac e ised by a g een and sophis ica ed a ay o expo p oduc s, can be pi o al in p omo ing
sus ainable de elopmen and en i onmen al sus ainabili y (Ra ique e al., 2022). The Economic
Complexi y Index by Hidalgo and Hausmann (2009) o e s a complemen a y pe spec i e on
economically signi ican ac i i ies, such as ade, echnical inno a ion, and scien i ic esea ch; his
con as s wi h adi ional agg ega e indica o s (Calda ola e al., 2024), enhancing ou capaci y o
quan i y a na ion’s p oduc i e s uc u e and he mac oeconomic signi icance o s uc u al
ans o ma ions (Ha mann e al., 2017). This pape wan s o con ibu e o he li e a u e by
joining he s uc u alis and e olu iona y economics li e a u e, emphasizing he ole o
capabili ies and sec o al alloca ion in g een inno a ion and in e na ional compe i i eness. In
pa icula , he pape ’s inno a i e con ibu ion is analysing he single mode a ing e ec o
economic complexi y, as well as he join mode a e e ec o economic sophis ica ion and pollu ion
in ensi y on he e ec i eness o he s ingency o en i onmen al egula ion on in e na ional g een
compe i i eness. The e o e, he pape in ends o iden i y possible complemen a i y be ween he
C. G azini, G. Gua ini 31
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
di e en policy ools and he deg ee o sophis ica ion o he economic sys em, exp essed h ough
he Economic Complexi y Index, o alida e he hypo hesis ha s ingen en i onmen al policies,
combined wi h a sophis ica ion o echnology and expo s, could ep esen a winning s a egy o
acili a e ecological s uc u al change.
The emainde o he pape is s uc u ed as ollows: Sec ion 1 in oduces he concep ual
amewo k o he pape , sec ion 2 desc ibes he da a and he es ima ion s a egy, sec ion 3
discusses he esul s, and sec ion 4 concludes.
1. The concep ual amewo k
A i m’s en i onmen al and economic success elies on inno a ions ha os e sus ainabili y and
compe i i eness (Fab izi e al., 2024a). A “ i uous cycle” s a s om inno a ion, pa icula ly
g een inno a ion, which leads o enhanced p oduc i i y and inc eased expo ma ke sha e
(Fos e e al., 2008). Eco-inno a ions gene a e mo e e icien p ocesses, imp o e p oduc i i y and
en i onmen al pe o mance, and p o ide a compe i i e ad an age o i ms (Chis o e al., 2021).
The e o e, hey ep esen a c ucial d i e o indus ialisa ion and in e na ional g een
compe i i eness (Gua ini and O ei o, 2023; Fab izi e al., 2024b). On he one hand, g een
echnological ad ancemen s, h ough he educ ion o uni ene gy and aw ma e ial cos s, can lead
o a dep ecia ion o he eal exchange a e, he eby enhancing p ice compe i i eness in he global
ma ke (Galindo e al., 2020) On he o he hand, implemen ing an ecological s uc u al change can
inc ease nonp ice compe i i eness by posi i ely a ec ing he income elas ici y o expo s (Dá ila-
Fe nández and So di, 2020).
Al hough a ou ing en i onmen al sus ainabili y and employmen c ea ion, eco-inno a ions
a e mo e complex han s anda d ones; hei implemen a ion equi es companies o possess
mul idisciplina y knowledge and skills conce ning he s anda d echnologies, so hey necessi a e
he suppo o s ic e en i onmen al egula ions o ensu e hei success ul implemen a ion
(Kemp and Pea son, 2007; Ho bach e al., 2013). Co ec i e ecological egula ions ha e been
enac ed o mi iga e en i onmen al damage, he eby os e ing he g een ans o ma ion o he
economy h ough ad ancemen s in g een echnology inno a ion (Guo e al., 2023). Howe e , wo
di e en posi ions eme ge in academic li e a u e. In he neoclassical heo y, en i onmen al
p o ec ion leads o addi ional cos s o i ms, e oding hei p o i abili y and compe i i eness.
Ecological egula ion o ces i ms o alloca e inpu s, such as labou o capi al, o educe pollu ion,
which is unp oduc i e om he common p o i -maximisa ion pe spec i e, iden i ying
en i onmen al policies as a cause o cos inc eases (Ambec e al., 2013). This pe spec i e ga e ise
o he Pollu ion ha en hypo hesis, which posi s ha pollu ing indus ies may eloca e o coun ies
o egions wi h mo e lenien en i onmen al egula ions, e e ed o as pollu ion ha ens (Dou and
Han, 2019).
The o he posi ion, in he e odox li e a u e, ecognises en i onmen al egula ion as
s imula ing he de elopmen and dissemina ion o new, cleane echnologies, which a e c ucial
o educing he en i onmen al impac o human ac i i ies. Addi ionally, p omo ing eco-
inno a ion can c ea e a win-win s a egy whe e he gene a ion and di usion o echnologies ha
enhance ecological pe o mance lead o knowledge spillo e s, he eby imp o ing he
in e na ional compe i i eness o high- ech sec o s (Cos an ini e al., 2017). In pa icula , Po e
and an de Linde con es ed he pollu ion ha en hypo hesis in he ea ly 1990s (Fab izi e al.,
2024a); hey ound ha , while he adi ional con lic be ween ecology and he economy a ises
om a s a ic iew o en i onmen al egula ion, whe e echnology, p oduc s, p ocesses, and
32 En i onmen al policy and g een expo compe i i eness: The enhancing e ec o economic complexi y
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
cus ome needs a e conside ed ixed, he pa adigm o in e na ional compe i i eness is a dynamic,
inno a ion-based model (Po e and Van de Linde, 1995). This ision has been o malised in he
well-known Po e hypo hesis (PH), which has been di ided in o ou e sions: weak, na ow,
s ong and s ic ly s ong. The weak PH s a es ha en i onmen al policies may spu inno a ion.
The na ow PH main ains ha lexible en i onmen al egula ion, pa icula ly ma ke -based
ins umen s, can imp o e i ms’ pe o mance by s imula ing he adop ion o inno a ions. The
s ong PH a i ms ha en i onmen al egula ion ep esen s an essen ial d i ing o ce o
en i onmen al inno a ions, imp o ing i ms’ ma ke compe i i eness hanks o he gene a ed
cos sa ings and p oduc i i y inc eases (Kunapa a awong and Ma ínez-Ros, 2016). Indeed, by
spu ing en i onmen al inno a ions, g een policies can inc ease p ice compe i i eness by
educing inpu s and p oduc ion cos s. A he same ime, hey can enhance en i onmen al
pe o mance and he quali y o p oduc s as pe cei ed by he in e na ional ma ke s, sus aining
nonp ice compe i i eness (Gua ini and O ei o, 2022). Cos an ini and Mazzan i (2012) in oduced
he ollowing s ic ly s ong e sion. In hei es ing, hey iden i ied wo di e en posi i e e ec s.
Fi s o all, he o e all impac o en i onmen al policies does no appea o be de imen al o he
expo compe i i eness o he manu ac u ing sec o . Con e sely, a ge ed ene gy ax policies and
inno a ion ini ia i es posi i ely in luence he dynamics o expo lows, suppo ing he
mechanism indica ed by he PH. In pa icula , he au ho s highligh a signi ican posi i e e ec o
en i onmen al policies, and, in pa icula , o mo e incisi ely en i onmen al inno a ion e o s on
in e na ional g een compe i i eness. Indeed, Mahmood e al. (2022) ecen ly ound ha
en i onmen al egula ions signi ican ly s imula e eco-inno a ions and os e g een g ow h in
OECD coun ies.
Obse ing he ambigui y su ounding s udies aimed a alida ing o e u ing he s ong
e sion o he Po e hypo hesis, Pe oni e al. (2019) highligh ha , while i s ec ui men and
policy implica ions a e inc edibly ele an , i s alidi y is con o e sial and subjec o ce ain
condi ions, unde which en i onmen al egula ion can lead o p o i able ou comes and/o
enhance he compe i i eness o i ms o indus ies. Di e en mode a ing ac o s can a ec he
impac o en i onmen al egula ion on in e na ional compe i i eness. Fo ins ance, analysing he
Chinese manu ac u ing sec o , He e al. (2020) obse e how p ope y igh s p o ec ion in luences
he ela ionship be ween en i onmen al egula ion and co po a e pe o mance. In pa icula , he
e ec i eness o en i onmen al egula ion on in e na ional compe i i eness can especially depend
on he coun y’s pollu ion in ensi y. Howe e , he e is no consensus in li e a u e on he
mode a ing e ec o his ac o . On he one hand, Pe oni e al. (2019) main ain ha s ingen
en i onmen al egula ions in luence i ms’ en i onmen al s a egies and p o i abili y so ha hey
can a ou less-pollu ing i ms; his is because he la e may incu lowe compliance cos s
compa ed o mo e hea ily pollu ing indus ies, which a e subjec o highe pollu ion aba emen
equi emen s and highe compliance cos s, h ea ening hei p o i abili y and ma ke su i al. On
he con a y, Fab izi e al. (2024a) obse e ha pollu ion in ensi y has a posi i e mode a ing
impac on he e ec i eness o g een policies on in e na ional compe i i eness, sugges ing ha
highe pollu ion le els make ecological con e sion mo e economically ad an ageous globally.
Following hei wo k, his pape wan s o e i y he mode a ing ole o pollu ion in ensi y on
in e na ional g een compe i i eness.
Ano he signi ican ac o a ec ing he impac o en i onmen al egula ions on in e na ional
g een compe i i eness could be he economic complexi y o he p oduc i e s uc u e. Technical
p og ess c ea es inc easingly sophis ica ed and complex p oduc s and se ices, in eg a ing a
g ea e and mo e di e se a ay o echnical and scien i ic knowledge as well as s uc u al changes
ha ealloca e p oduc i e esou ces and wo ke s om lowe - alue o highe -added- alue sec o s
C. G azini, G. Gua ini 33
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
(O ei o e al., 2020b). Technical change in ol es acqui ing inc easingly complex capabili ies, ha
is, a lea ning p ocess ocused on enhancing he p oduc ion and expo o highly sophis ica ed
goods (Hidalgo and Hausmann, 2009). The e o e, economic complexi y e lec s a coun y’s
capabili ies, including human and social capi al, ins i u ions, and echnology, which collec i ely
con ibu e o he sophis ica ion le el o i s expo ed p oduc s (Zhu and Fu, 2013). Indeed,
coun ies ha excel in high- ech p oduc ion and di e si ica ion ank highly on he Economic
Complexi y Index and enjoy a compe i i e ad an age in expo ma ke s (E kan and Yildi imci,
2015).
A body o li e a u e sugges s ha economic complexi y can po en ially sa egua d
en i onmen al quali y. Focusing on he ecological ansi ion, a highe le els o economic
complexi y, he e occu s uc u al shi s owa ds knowledge-in ensi e indus ies; hese impac
ene gy demand and esou ce de elopmen and alloca ion, and hey exe signi ican e ec s on he
en i onmen , economy, and socie y (Neagu e al., 2022). This inc ease in economic complexi y
p o ides he knowledge and echnology o economies o ansi ion owa ds en i onmen ally
sus ainable ac i i ies, including, o example, clean p oduc ion echnology expe ise and
knowledge o a coun y (Swa and B inkmann, 2020; Sa i e al., 2023). Consequen ly, as a
coun y’s economic complexi y inc eases, i s en i onmen al quali y will likely imp o e h ough
he adop ion o ad anced knowledge and echnologies (Hausmann e al., 2014). Bole i e al. (2021)
e i y ha highe le els o economic complexi y co ela e wi h supe io en i onmen al
pe o mance, as economic complexi y may acili a e he adop ion o g een inno a ions. Indeed,
his ela ionship is based on he p emise ha highe economic complexi y indices co ela e wi h
inc eased esea ch and inno a ion ac i i ies, which d i e g een inno a ion and en i onmen ally
sus ainable p oduc ion me hods (Agozie e al., 2022). Engagemen in g een ac i i ies can pa e he
way o no el sou ces o compe i i eness and business oppo uni ies, pa icula ly in sec o s
cha ac e ised by inno a ion and he gene a ion o signi ican added alue. Empi ically, as shown
by Shahbaz e al. (2019), mo e sophis ica ed expo s ha a e gene a ed by lea ning-by-doing and
lea ning-by-expo ing ac i i ies allow, o ins ance, he con ol o ene gy demand, and hey a e
associa ed wi h lowe g eenhouse gas emissions pe uni o ou pu (S ojkoski e al., 2023).
Howe e , he e is no e idence abou he mode a ing e ec o economic complexi y on he impac
o en i onmen al egula ions on in e na ional g een compe i i eness. The only e idence is he
s udy o Mealy and Tey elboym (2022) ha builds an ad hoc G een Complexi y Index showing he
coun y’s capabili y o expo g een, echnologically sophis ica ed p oduc s compe i i ely; in
pa icula , using a linea eg ession model, hey obse e ha highe g een p oduc i e capabili ies
a e posi i ely co ela ed wi h highe en i onmen al pa en ing a es, lowe CO2 emissions, and
mo e s ingen en i onmen al policies.
2. Es ima ion s a egy and econome ic model
This sec ion p esen s he da ase , he main a iables, and he econome ic model implemen ed o
e i y he alidi y o he s ic ly s ong e sion o he Po e hypo hesis.
2.1. The da ase , En i onmen al Policy S ingency index, and Economic Complexi y Index
The OECD p o ides eliable and ha monised da a on en i onmen al issues o espond o he
g owing in e na ional conce n o sus ainable de elopmen (G azini and Gua ini, 2023a). To
e alua e he impac o en i onmen al egula ion on g een expo compe i i eness and he
34 En i onmen al policy and g een expo compe i i eness: The enhancing e ec o economic complexi y
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
mode a ing e ec o economic complexi y, we use he lis o en i onmen ally ela ed goods
p oposed by he OECD
2
o c ea e he dependen a iable ENV_EXP, which is he en i onmen al
goods expo in cu en USD. Following Cos an ini and Mazzan i (2012), we use his a iable as a
p oxy o g een expo compe i i eness. The en i onmen al goods expo s a e buil by
agg ega ing he ollowing 11 en i onmen al goods ca ego ies p oposed by he OECD (S eenblik,
2005): 1) ai pollu ion con ol, 2) en i onmen al moni o ing, analysis and assessmen equipmen ,
3) managemen o solid and haza dous was e and ecycling sys ems, 4) noise and ib a ion
aba emen , 5) was e wa e managemen and po able wa e ea men , 6) cleane o mo e
esou ce e icien echnologies and p oduc s, 7) en i onmen ally p e e able p oduc s based on
end use o disposal cha ac e is ics, 8) clean up o emedia ion o soil and wa e , 9) hea and
ene gy managemen , 10) na u al esou ces p o ec ion, and 11) enewable ene gy plan .
We p oxy he en i onmen al egula ion by using he En i onmen al Policy S ingency (EPS)
index. To con on clima e challenges and, pa icula ly, espec he Pa is Ag eemen , na ions a e
commi ing o mo e ambi ious en i onmen al a ge s and policy ac ions. As coun ies adop
s ic e en i onmen al policies, he demand o ools o measu e, compa e, and e alua e hei
impac s is inc easing. Measu ing policy s ingency ac oss coun ies and ime se es h ee
pu poses: o moni o p og ess, o iden i y and benchma k leade s and lagga ds, and o assess he
impac o policies on pollu ion, economic, and social ou comes. E ec i e policy implemen a ion
equi es unde s anding which measu es wo k bes and ensu ing p o ec ion o ulne able g oups
o a oid eg essi e e ec s (K use e al., 2022). The OECD EPS index was de eloped in 2014 o
o e come he lack o ha monised da a ha would allow spa ial and empo al compa ison; i
allowed, o he i s ime, a comp ehensi e e alua ion o a di e se a ay o policies ac oss
di e en coun ies and pe iods. E en hough his index encompasses clima e change and ai
pollu ion policies, as hese opics ha e he mos comp ehensi e da a a ailable, i excludes
signi ican en i onmen al a eas such as wa e , biodi e si y, and was e managemen due o he
una ailabili y o ex ensi e c oss-coun y panel da a o hese sec o s. While i ini ially ocused
only on ma ke and nonma ke ins umen s, his index was upda ed in 2022, adding he
echnology suppo policy so ha oday, i measu es he se e i y o en i onmen al egula ion o
40 coun ies by examining 13 di e en policy ools.
3
Once he alues o he ins umen -speci ic
indica o s a e agg ega ed in o he h ee b oade ca ego ies desc ibed in oo no e 3, hese alues
a e agg ega ed in o a composi e indica o anging om 0 o 6, acco ding o he deg ee o
s ingency o en i onmen al egula ions.
Finally, we use he Economic Complexi y Index (ECI) o measu e he sophis ica ion o a
coun y’s p oduc i e s uc u e because i ep esen s he ex en o knowledge a socie y u ilises o
cons uc i s economic s uc u e and he know-how o i s popula ion (Hidalgo, 2015). De eloped
by Hidalgo and Hausmann (2009) wi hin Ha a d’s G ow h Lab,
4
his index e alua es a coun y’s
cu en p oduc ion knowledge by analysing ade da a and assessing he di e si ica ion and
2
Sou ce: OECD Da a Explo e (a ailable online).
3
The ma ke ins umen ocuses on ools a ibu ing a p ice o pollu ion, such as CO2 axes, uel axes, NOx ax, SOx ax,
CO2 ading schemes, and enewable ene gy ading schemes. The nonma ke ca ego y is ela ed o policies ha impose
an emissions s anda d, such as emission limi alue (ELV) o NOx, ELV o Sox, ELV o pa icula e ma e , and sulphu
con en limi o diesel. “Well-designed en i onmen al policies p o ide incen i es ha inc ease inno a ion in clean
echnologies. Accele a ing inno a ion in low-ca bon echnologies may equi e u he echnology suppo policies
incen i ising inno a ion in and adop ion o low-ca bon echnologies” (K use e al., 2022, p. 36). The hi d sub-index
ela ed o he s eng h o echnology suppo policies allows o he isola ion o ups eam and downs eam ins umen s
ha di ec ly suppo inno a ions in clean echnologies: he i s ca ego y aims o encou age and inance inno a ions,
while he pu pose o he second one is o p omo e hei adop ion.
4
Sou ce: h ps://a las.hks.ha a d.edu/da a-downloads.
C. G azini, G. Gua ini 41
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
p oxy o knowledge and g een p oduc ion capabili ies wi hin he economy, o enhancing
in e na ional g een compe i i eness; bu , abo e all, hey’ e unde sco ed he signi ican ole o
economic complexi y in mode a ing he impac o en i onmen al egula ions on g een expo s,
which becomes posi i e and signi ican e en in he sho e m. Coun ies wi h highe economic
complexi y a e mo e adep a u ilizing s ingen en i onmen al egula ions o s imula e g een
inno a ions and enhance hei in e na ional compe i i eness. Con e sely, ecological s uc u al
change is mo e di icul o eme ging economies, whe e he low sophis ica ion o he p oduc ion
s uc u e p oduced by he de-indus ializa ion p ocess can comp omise he e ec i eness o
policies inducing echnological change. The join impac o he ECI and he EPS index highligh s
he impo ance o ad ancing economic di e si ica ion and enac ing e ec i e en i onmen al
policies. As main ained by ECLAC (2020), g een con e sion needs a “big push o sus ainabili y”,
which in ol es he coo dina ion o policies o mobilize and accele a e sus ainable in es men s o
os e a i uous cycle o economic g ow h, inc eased income, job c ea ion, and educed
inequali ies. A he same ime, policymake s can p omo e in es men s in inno a i e and high-
alue-added ac i i ies ha acili a e he ansi ion o di e si ied economic s uc u es and
sophis ica ed g een goods p oduc ion. Go e nmen s should p io i ize sec o s wi h lowe
en i onmen al impac and encou age i ms o in es in en i onmen ally iendly p oduc s. This
s a egy can add ess ecological challenges while s eng hening economic esilience and
enhancing in e na ional compe i i eness by e ec i ely posi ioning coun ies o le e age g een
inno a ions and sus ainable p ac ices. Mo eo e , coun ies ha expo complex indus ial
p oduc s gene ally exhibi g ea e inclusi i y and expe ience lowe income inequali y le els han
do hose expo ing mo e s aigh o wa d p oduc s (Ha mann e al., 2017). The e o e, he
combina ion o s ingen en i onmen al policies and g een economic sophis ica ion could
ep esen ECLAC’s (2012) “s uc u al change o equali y”, which in eg a es economic g ow h
wi h sus ainable p oduc ion and uni e sal social p o ec ion o p omo e knowledge-in ensi e
sec o s, educe income dispa i ies, and ensu e equal igh s o all. Finally, indings ha e also
e ealed ha pollu ion in ensi y in luences bo h he di ec e ec i eness o en i onmen al
egula ions and he mode a ing e ec o he ECI. S ingen egula ions a e mo e e ec i e in
p omo ing in e na ional g een compe i i eness in highly pollu ing coun ies cha ac e ised by
high economic sophis ica ion, as hey ha e mo e oppo uni ies o educe ine iciencies and bene i
om g een con e sion. This implies ha he p e ious g een compe i i e s a egy should be
ailo ed o di e en coun ies’ pollu ion in ensi y and g een knowledge o maximize hei
e ec i eness.
This pape has limi a ions due o he a ailabili y o OECD en i onmen al da a ha may guide
u u e esea ch di ec ions. Fi s ly, al hough he OECD p o ides ha monised da a o c oss-coun y
compa isons, he sample is limi ed o only 40 coun ies, mos o which a e high-income OECD
coun ies. Fu he esea ch could enla ge he sample, including mo e eme ging and de eloping
coun ies, o es he alidi y o he s ic ly s ong e sion o he PH and p o ide a mo e
comp ehensi e unde s anding o he global dynamics o g een compe i i eness. Secondly, he
ime se ies o en i onmen al expo s co e s only he pe iod om 1990 o 2016; u u e esea ch
should ex end he analysis o include mo e ecen da a o cap u e he la es ends and policy
impac . Mo eo e , u he esea ch could ui ully explo e and analyse in mo e dep h he e ec s
o he EPS index and he ECI by disagg ega ing en i onmen al expo s. Con i ming and ex ending
he indings o Fab izi e al. (2024a), his pape has iden i ied pollu ion in ensi y as ano he
mode a ing ac o o he ela ionship be ween en i onmen al egula ion and in e na ional g een
compe i i eness. To achie e di e si ica ion in g een echnology, i is o en essen ial o access
o eign expe ise and de elop he necessa y domes ic capabili ies, equi ing in e na ional
42 En i onmen al policy and g een expo compe i i eness: The enhancing e ec o economic complexi y
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
linkages and c oss-coun y coope a ion, which a e c ucial o enhancing in e na ional
compe i i eness. Indeed, he UN (UNCTAD, 2023) ad oca es in e na ional coope a ion in he
g een economy, emphasizing he impo ance o ac i i ies in science, echnology, and inno a ion.
A he na ional le el, uni e si ies and go e nmen s can suppo i ms by p o iding economic
incen i es and acili a ing he ans e o complex knowledge o de eloping g een inno a ions.
Wi hin his pe spec i e, Fab izi e al. (2024b) iden i y a posi i e ela ionship be ween
en i onmen al ne wo ks and g een expo s. The e o e, u he wo k will e alua e how
in e na ional collabo a ion and ade policies in luence he adop ion o g een echnologies and
p ac ices and include o he mode a ing ac o s. The na ow e sion o he PH sus ains he
e ec i eness o en i onmen al egula ion on eco-inno a ion di usion, and en i onmen al
pe o mance a ies acco ding o he speci ic en i onmen al policy ool, so di e en ypes o
en i onmen al policies ha e a ying impac s on g een expo s (Kang and Lee, 2021). This pape
has iden i ied he exis ence o a di ec impac o en i onmen al policy’s s ingency and he single
and join mode a ing e ec s o economic sophis ica ion and pollu ion in ensi y o i s e ec i eness
on in e na ional g een compe i i eness. Howe e , u he esea ch could es he na ow e sions
o he PH by examining in mo e dep h he impac o speci ic policy ins umen s and egula o y
amewo ks, using he decomposi ion o he EPS index, on in e na ional g een compe i i eness,
as well as he mode a ing ac o s a ec ing i s alidi y, o p o ide mo e ac ionable insigh s o
policymake s.
Appendix A
Figu e A1 – The las a ailable global classi ica ion acco ding o he ECI (2023)
Sou ce: h ps://a las.cid.ha a d.edu/ ankings
C. G azini, G. Gua ini 43
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
Appendix B
Table B1 – Summa y s a is ics o dependen and independen a iables (exp essed in loga i hms)
Obs.
Mean
S d. De .
Min.
Max.
ENV_EXP
546
22.85623
1.64420
17.09108
26.2739
WGDP
1240
32.02996
0.30085
31.57146
32.50363 0
RER
1'079
4.572144
0.174392
3.763807
5.102513
ECI
914
–0.0998606
0.9288676
–5.6003275
1.0504261
EPS
1'196
0.2938750
0.9491239
–2.8903718
1.586965
GHG_GDP
1'128
0.37166
0.66423697
–4.42284862
1.626
GHG_CAP
1'120
2.260371
0.658944
–1.870803
3.92235
EDU
852
3.2312
0.5086
1.5597
4.0936
FIT
819
0.7400
0.7937
–2.0241
2.3691
GDP_POP
1'209
3.3319
0.6926
0.3396
4.7447
TRADE_OPEN
1'044
–0.7056
0.4981
–2.3161
0.5200
GOV_R&D
724
–6.3015
0.7041
–9.0496
–4.9230
Figu e B1 – T end o he a e age o he EPS index be ween 1990 and 2016 acco ding o he
de elopmen le el
Sou ce: Au ho s’ elabo a ion on he OECD da abase (h ps://da a-explo e .oecd.o g).
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
De eloped coun ies Eme ging coun ies T ansi ioning coun ies
44 En i onmen al policy and g een expo compe i i eness: The enhancing e ec o economic complexi y
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
Figu e B2 – The dynamic o ENV_EXP be ween 2003 and 2016 o se e al coun ies
Sou ce: Au ho s’ elabo a ion on he OECD da abase (h ps://da a-explo e .oecd.o g).
Table B2 – Co ela ion ma ix
N .
Va iables
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
ENV_EXP
1.000
2
WGDP
0.084
1.000
3
RER
0.195
–0.090
1.000
4
EPS
0.437
0.249
0.089
1.000
5
ECI
0.602
–0.205
0.119
0.232
1.000
6
FIT
0.810
–0.118
0.100
0.221
0.552
1.000
7
GHG_GDP
–0.070
–0.273
–0.072
–0.341
–0.113
0.024
1.000
8
GHG_CAP
0.080
–0.223
0.034
–0.171
0.031
0.017
0.807
1.000
9
EDU
0.127
0.348
0.116
–0.064
0.031
–0.151
–0.190
0.101
1.000
10
GDP_POP
0.234
0.140
0.170
0.330
0.235
–0.015
–0.528
0.075
0.468
1.000
11
GOV_R&D
0.399
–0.034
0.015
0.155
–0.024
0.200
0.276
0.100
–0.048
–0.321
1.000
12
TRADE_OPEN
–0.293
0.125
–0.095
0.086
0.178
–0.330
0.055
–0.052
–0.313
–0.167
–0.162
1.000
21,6
22,1
22,6
23,1
23,6
24,1
24,6
25,1
25,6
26,1
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
B azil China F ance
Ge many India I aly
Mexico Spain Uni ed S a es
C. G azini, G. Gua ini 45
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
Appendix C
Table C1 – The in oduc ion o one, wo, and ou lags and o he Fi ness Economic Me ic Index,
and es ima ions wi h a ixed e ec ins umen al a iables model (column 5)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
LAG 1
LAG 2
LAG 4
Fi ness
Economic
Me ic, FIT
FE
ins umen al
a iable
model
WGDP
0.757***
0.768***
0.771***
0.535
–0.320
(78.26)
(74.17)
(84.83)
(1.52)
(–0.25)
RER
0.207***
0.150**
0.141**
0.252***
0.456***
(3.01)
(2.04)
(2.20)
(3.78)
(3.98)
ECI
0.166**
–0.0148
0.00269
0.112
(2.50)
(–0.21)
(0.04)
(0.40)
EPS
0.0548
0.110***
0.0914***
–0.0395
0.122
(1.21)
(2.81)
(3.10)
(–1.00)
(0.99)
EPS*ECI
0.280***
0.218***
0.196***
0.524**
(4.82)
(3.86)
(4.29)
(2.02)
GHG_GDP
–0.109**
–0.0680
–0.0204
–0.00143
–0.0212
(–2.04)
(–1.33)
(–0.46)
(–0.04)
(–0.21)
EPS*GHG_GDP
0.0639*
0.115***
0.0545**
0.0103
0.177**
(1.84)
(3.77)
(2.21)
(0.47)
(2.46)
ECI*GHG_GDP
0.00822
–0.119*
–0.0957*
–0.173
(0.13)
(–1.93)
(–1.78)
(–0.81)
EPS*ECI*GHG_GDP
0.252***
0.193***
0.143***
0.471***
(5.13)
(3.98)
(3.79)
(2.75)
FIT
0.237***
(3.45)
EPS*FIT
0.110***
(2.58)
FIT*GHG_GDP
0.0212
(0.56)
EPS*FIT*GHG_GDP
0.0949***
(3.83)
Time dummies
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Coun y dummies
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No. obse a ions
405
404
404
444
400
Coun ies
30
30
30
33
30
Yea s
14
14
14
14
13
Wald es
1.36e+07
1.30e+07
1.51e+07
64502.51
Unde iden i ica ion es (p- alue)
0.0545
Hansen J s a is ic (p- alue)
0.3504
No e: s a is ics in pa en heses. *, **, and *** indica e 10 %, 5 %, and 1 % signi icance le els. In column (5), a ixed e ec
ins umen al a iables model is es ima ed: all economic eg esso s a e conside ed po en ially endogenous by using
hese eg esso s wi h lag 2, popula ion, and popula ion densi y as ins umen s.
46 En i onmen al policy and g een expo compe i i eness: The enhancing e ec o economic complexi y
PSL Qua e ly Re iew
Table C2 – The in oduc ion o o he con ol a iables
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
ETC
GHG_CAP
GDP_POP
EDU
TRADE_OPEN
GOV_R&D
WGDP
0.757***
0.677***
0.677***
0.694***
0.785***
0.614***
(78.26)
(57.53)
(57.19)
(57.61)
(77.03)
(42.27)
RER
0.207***
0.130**
0.133**
0.263***
0.201***
0.298***
(3.01)
(2.04)
(2.08)
(3.77)
(3.00)
(3.62)
ECI
0.166**
0.220***
0.218***
0.0342
0.226**
0.245**
(2.50)
(3.43)
(3.41)
(0.37)
(2.53)
(2.42)
EPS
0.0548
–0.0463
–0.0453
0.0500
0.0305
0.209**
(1.21)
(–1.13)
(–1.11)
(1.09)
(0.59)
(2.54)
EPS*ECI
0.280***
0.210***
0.207***
0.294***
0.346***
0.284***
(4.82)
(3.83)
(3.79)
(4.08)
(4.54)
(2.96)
GHG_GDP
–0.109**
–0.753***
0.00711
–0.176***
–0.155**
–0.336***
(–2.04)
(–8.89)
(0.14)
(–3.02)
(–2.41)
(–3.92)
EPS*GHG_GDP
0.0639*
–0.0164
–0.0154
0.0952***
0.0233
0.171***
(1.84)
(–0.49)
(–0.46)
(2.73)
(0.56)
(2.89)
ECI*GHG_GDP
0.00822
0.0589
0.0586
–0.0614
0.0920
0.0625
(0.13)
(1.01)
(1.00)
(–0.84)
(1.07)
(0.65)
EPS*ECI*GHG_GDP
0.252***
0.199***
0.196***
0.254***
0.296***
0.235***
(5.13)
(4.32)
(4.25)
(4.79)
(4.21)
(2.88)
ETC
–1.468***
(–18.05)
GHG_CAP
0.757***
(8.61)
GDP_POP
0.759***
(8.63)
EDU
0.452***
(6.26)
TRADE_OPEN
0.610***
(8.73)
GOV_R&D
0.0412
(1.25)
Time dummies
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Coun y dummies
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No. obse a ions
405
405
405
367
387
234
Coun ies
30
29
29
28
21
30
Yea s
14
14
14
14
14
14
Wald es
1.36e+07
1.58e+07
1.58e+07
1.56e+07
1.68e+07
1.65e+07
No e: s a is ics in pa en heses. *, **, and *** indica e 10 %, 5 %, and 1 % signi icance le els.
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