Yang, Lijuan
A icle
Ca alys o ba ie ? Impac o ce eal ade on u baniza ion
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Ca alys o ba ie ? Impac o ce eal ade on
u baniza ion
Lijuan Yang
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2024, VoL. 11, no. 1, 2375997
Ca alys o ba ie ? Impac o ce eal ade on u baniza ion
lijuan Yang
school o economics, Lanzhou uni e si y, Lanzhou, China
ABSTRACT
cla i ying he impac o ce eal ade on u baniza ion is c ucial o enhancing e ec i e
ood secu i y policies and p omo ing sus ainable u ban de elopmen . howe e , he
he e ogeneous impac o he ce eal ade on u baniza ion emains unde explo ed. his
s udy applies in e na ional ade heo y o explo e he causal e ec s and supplemen s
panel da a on 216 economies om 1990 o 2018 using wo-s age leas squa es
eg ession (2sls). he esul s show ha bo h ce eal expo s and impo s signi ican ly
p omo e u baniza ion, wi h he magni ude o impo s being highe han ha o
expo s. Fu he mo e, global ce eal ade p omo es u baniza ion in bo h eme ging and
de eloped economies. he indings p o ide insigh s o policymake s on how o
le e age adjus men s in ce eal ade policies o enhance u baniza ion, pa icula ly in
economies s i ing o balance ood secu i y wi h u ban de elopmen .
PUBLIC INTEREST STATEMENT
his s udy explo es how he ade o ce eals – such as whea and ice – a ec s he
g ow h o ci ies wo ldwide. By examining da a om 216 coun ies o e nea ly h ee
decades, we disco e ed ha coun ies ha expo o impo ce eals end o see mo e
u ban de elopmen . he impac o impo ing ce eals on ci y g ow h is e en s onge
han ha o expo ing hem. his inding is c ucial o coun ies looking o balance
hei ood needs wi h u ban expansion. i sugges s ha managing he ce eal ade can
be a s a egy o enhance u baniza ion while ensu ing ood secu i y. Ou esea ch
p o ides a esh pe spec i e on he global discussion abou how ade policies can
in luence he de elopmen o u ban a eas, o e ing insigh s o policymake s on
os e ing sus ainable ci ies.
1. In oduc ion
h oughou his o y and in o he e a o globaliza ion, ce eal ade has consis en ly been a c ucial d i e
in e ol ing in e na ional ade pa e ns and he de elopmen o u ban landscapes (Fede ico, 2005; huang
e al., 1999; O’Rou ke & Williamson, 2002; swinnen & squiccia ini, 2012). ce eals, as a p ima y ood
sou ce, play a s a egic ole in na ional ood secu i y and ha e unique ma ke cha ac e is ics due o hei
seasonal a iabili y and essen ial demand. Resea che s in es iga ed he nexus be ween ce eal impo s
and u baniza ion in de eloping economies (Zhang & Wan, 2015, 2017); howe e , he e is limi ed empi -
ical e idence on whe he global ce eal ade in luences u baniza ion. he e o e, his s udy empi ically
in es iga es he impac o ce eal ade on u baniza ion ac oss de eloped and eme ging economies.
he apid g ow h o global ce eal ade since 1990, om 250 million ons in 2000 o o e 500 million
ons by 2019, as epo ed by he Uni ed na ions (Un) epo on wo ld ood secu i y and nu i ion (Uni ed
na ions, 2019), unde sco es he inc easing in e connec i i y o ce eal ma ke s wo ldwide. his expansion
coincides wi h a signi ican u ban shi , whe e he p opo ion o he wo ld’s u ban popula ion has
inc eased om app oxima ely 30% in he las cen u y o 56.15% in 2020 and is expec ed o each 62.5%
by 2035. no h ame ica and la in ame ica a e he la ges ne ce eal expo e s; eu ope is a ne expo e ;
and asia and a ica a e he la ges ne impo e s (Wo ld Bank, 2018). he co ela ion be ween he
© 2024 he au ho (s). Published by in o ma uK Limi ed, ading as aylo & F ancis g oup
CONTACT Lijuan Yang [email p o ec ed].cn school o economics, Lanzhou uni e si y, Lanzhou, China .
h ps://doi.o g/10.1080/23311975.2024.2375997
his is an open access a icle dis ibu ed unde he e ms o he C ea i e Commons a ibu ion License (h p://c ea i ecommons.o g/licenses/by/4.0/), which
pe mi s un es ic ed use, dis ibu ion, and ep oduc ion in any medium, p o ided he o iginal wo k is p ope ly ci ed. he e ms on which his a icle has been
published allow he pos ing o he accep ed Manusc ip in a eposi o y by he au ho (s) o wi h hei consen .
ARTICLE HISTORY
Recei ed 28 Ma ch 2022
Re ised 19 Feb ua y 2024
accep ed 1 July 2024
KEYWORDS
ce eal expo s; ce eal
impo s; u baniza ion,
ood secu i y, eme ging
economies
REVIEWING EDITOR
hui en (helen) cai,
Middlesex Uni e si y
Business school,
Uni ed Kingdom
SUBJECTS
in e na ional ade (incl.
ade ag eemen s &
a i s); De elopmen
economics; U ban
economics
2l. Yang
inc easing ce eal ade and u baniza ion ends p omp s a c ucial inqui y in o he impac s o ce eal ade
on u baniza ion.
his s udy aims o unco e whe he and how ce eal ade ac s as a ca alys o ba ie o u baniza ion,
ocusing on he di e en ial e ec s o ce eal expo s and impo s. Based on he classical heo y o in e -
na ional ade, i analyzes he e ec s o ce eal expo s and impo s on u baniza ion using ansna ional
panel da a on 216 economies om 1990 o 2018. he esul s indica e ha he impac o ce eal expo s
and impo s on u baniza ion is he e ogeneous. global ce eal ade p omo es u baniza ion, while he
magni ude o impo s is highe han ha o expo s. Mo eo e , ce eal ade accele a es he u baniza ion
o bo h de eloped and eme ging economies.
he con ibu ions o he s udy a e 3- old. Fi s , i expands he unde s anding o ade-u baniza ion
dynamics. By dissec ing he he e ogeneous impac s o ce eal ade (expo s and impo s) on u baniza-
ion, his s udy en iches he heo e ical analysis o he e ec s o in e na ional ade on egional de el-
opmen . second, i deepens he empi ical analysis o he spa ial dimensions o ade libe aliza ion
(B ülha , 2011; hi e e al., 2020) wi h global da a. le e aging a comp ehensi e panel da ase , his s udy
o e s obus empi ical e idence on he di e en ial impac s o ce eal expo s and impo s on u baniza-
ion ac oss bo h de eloped and eme ging economies. hi d, i in o ms policy design o sus ainable
u ban de elopmen . he s udy’s indings ha e implica ions o policymake s wo ldwide, o e ing
e idence-based insigh s o in o m he de elopmen o in eg a ed ade, ood secu i y and u baniza ion
s a egies, pa icula ly o eme ging economies, o uel u ban de elopmen and enhance o e all eco-
nomic esilience.
he emainde o his a icle is o ganized as ollows: sec ion 2 e iews he li e a u e. sec ion 3 p es-
en s he heo e ical amewo k. sec ions 4 and 5 discuss he me hodology and esul s. sec ion 6 p o-
ides a case analysis o he u baniza ion le el be ween a ce eal expo e (Usa) and wo ce eal impo e s
(china and india). sec ion 7 concludes he a icle.
2. Li e a u e e iew
2.1. Theo e ical analysis linking in e na ional ade and u ban de elopmen
U ban sys em and new economy heo ies o e amewo ks linking in e na ional ade o u ban de elop-
men , in luenced by economic, demog aphic and geog aphic ac o s. Rosen and Resnick (1980) and
Whea on and shishido (1981) ocus on he ounda ional ole o hese condi ions in u ban de elopmen .
in hei seminal wo k, Fuji a e al. (1999) hypo hesized ha ade in luences u ban sys ems’ e olu ion,
wi h ci ies de eloping hie a chically based on compa a i e ad an ages and economies o scale in ade.
hese heo ies unde sco e he ole o ade in u ban a chi ec u e, sugges ing ha ade uels he expan-
sion o exis ing u ban a eas and ca alyzes he eme gence o new u ban cen e s in s a egically ad an a-
geous loca ions, hus eshaping he u ban landscape in esponse o e ol ing ade.
Ru al labo mig a ion heo y also o e s a heo e ical ounda ion o examining he nexus be ween
ade and u baniza ion. his amewo k sugges s ha dispa i ies in income and employmen be ween
u al and u ban a eas can ca alyze a mig a ion low, pa icula ly when ade policies and in e na ional
ma ke dynamics a e in oduced (ha is & oda o, 1970; lewis, 1954; oda o, 1969). Pe akos (1989)
ex ends his heo y o a global con ex , whe e he economic shi s due o ade can spu u al- o-u ban
labo mo emen s. hese mo emen s a e magni ied in eme ging economies whe e ade de elopmen s,
including echnological ad ancemen s in ce eal p oduc ion, lead o an ine i able edis ibu ion o labo
owa d u ban cen e s. his analysis connec s ade- ela ed economic changes o u ban mig a ion ends,
showing how speci ic ade policies and global ma ke shi s d i e labo lows om u al a eas o ci ies,
he eby shaping u ban g ow h h ough he lens o in e na ional comme ce.
2.2. Empi ical e idence o he e ec s o ade on u ban de elopmen
empi ical s udies g ounded in u ban sys ems and new economy heo ies p esen indings on he e ec
o ade libe aliza ion on u ban de elopmen . While ades and glaese (1995) ha e empi ically suppo ed
he g ow h o cen al ci ies in open economies due o ade, B ülha (2011) and Da is and hende son
cOgen BUsiness & ManageMen 3
(2003) indica e ha he o e all p omo ion o u baniza ion h ough ade libe aliza ion is s ill deba ed.
K ugman and elizondo (1996) a gue ha wi hou in e na ional ade, indus ial concen a ion can lead o
he de elopmen o la ge ci ies due o economies o scale. howe e , hey also sugges ha he ad en
o ade can di use his concen a ion by edis ibu ing ac i i ies o loca ions wi h ade cos ad an ages.
coşa and Fajgelbaum (2016) ind ha ade openings inc ease he spa ial concen a ion o ci ies wi h
o eign ade cos ad an ages, especially coas al ci ies. Moomaw and sha e (1996) con ibu e o his
discou se by demons a ing ha expo -o ien ed policies can be po en d i e s o u baniza ion. hi e
e al. (2020) demons a e how ade cos he e ogenei y wi hin a coun y can in ensi y egional economic
dispa i ies, in luencing u baniza ion in mul i ace ed ways. his e idence sugges s ade policy in luences
u baniza ion, wi h he po en ial o cen alize and decen alize u ban g ow h depending on he s uc u e
and managemen o ade cos s wi hin na ional and global con ex s. Fu he mo e, ade policies ha e
asymme ic e ec s in eme ging economies (Udeagha & ngepah, 2021).
D awing om u al labo mig a ion heo y, empi ical e idence sugges s ha ade openness impac s
u baniza ion, pa icula ly h ough i s in luence on he sec o al makeup o economies (Da is & hende son,
2003). ne ce eal impo s inc eased he le el o u baniza ion in asian eme ging economies (Zhang &
Wan, 2015), which can impo ce eal o p omo e u baniza ion (Zhang & Wan, 2017). he e ec s o maize
on china’s u baniza ion we e no p onounced (chen & Kung, 2016). aking china as an example, expo s
ha e signi ican impac s on he u baniza ion o china’s coas al a ea (chen & Wu, 2017). since china’s
e o m and opening up and i s en y in o he Wo ld ade O ganiza ion (W O), he g ow h o impo s o
ag icul u al p oduc s has dep essed u al income, and he expansion o expo s o labo -in ensi e p od-
uc s has inc eased u ban wages and p omo ed he mig a ion o he labo o ce and u baniza ion (gu
e al., 2017; Zhang & song, 2003). hese empi ical s udies demons a e he signi ican ole o ag icul u al
ade in ans o ming economic sec o s and in luencing labo dis ibu ion, he eby con ibu ing o he
u baniza ion ends obse ed in eme ging asian economies.
his o ical e idence unde sco es he ole o he ce eal ade in u ban de elopmen ac oss con inen s.
he undamen al necessi y o ce eal abundance o ci y o ma ion has been documen ed, wi h a ica’s
u baniza ion p opelled by he alloca ion o su plus ce eals o non-ag icul u al sec o s (Walshaw, 2005)
and u ban g ow h linked o ce eal expo s (Jedwab, 2013). in eu ope, he Bal ic g ain ade acili a ed
u baniza ion by al e ing he egional labo di ision be ween eas e n and wes e n eu ope (hybel, 2002).
heblich e al. (2022) demons a e ha he Repeal o he co n laws led o socio-economic shi s in
england and Wales, including u al ou mig a ion and s uc u al ans o ma ion away om ag icul u e.
his highligh s he impac s o ade policies on u baniza ion and u al de elopmen . hese his o ical
ins ances p o ide aluable insigh s in o he longs anding economic and socie al impac s o he ce eal
ade on u ban landscapes. his o ical s udies indica e ce eal ade as he co ne s one o u ban expansion,
whe e i s abundance sus ains ci y g ow h and ini ia es socio-economic ans o ma ions. his is obse ed
in he case o he Repeal o he co n laws, which eshaped england’s u al and u ban landscapes.
2.3. Li e a u e gaps
Despi e he heo e ical and empi ical esea ch, se e al gaps emain in add essing he he e ogeneous
impac s o ce eal ade on u baniza ion, pa icula ly h ough a global lens. Fi s , wi hin he amewo ks
o u ban sys ems and new economy heo ies, an oppo uni y exis s o in es iga e he a ied impac s o
a ious ade commodi ies and lows, pa icula ly he speci ic e ec s o ce eal expo s e sus impo s on
u baniza ion. he e is also oom o he enhancemen o u al labo mig a ion heo y in explo ing he
in e ac ion be ween ade policies and labo mig a ion dynamics wi h u baniza ion in bo h de eloped
and eme ging economies. second, empi ical s udies ha e ocused on eme ging economies, wi h less
a en ion paid o de eloped economies o a compa a i e analysis be ween he wo. he e ec o ce eal
expo s and impo s on u baniza ion needs u he explo a ion. hi d, in his o ical analyses, while con i-
bu ions ha e been made o unde s anding he his o ical ole o ce eal ade in u ban de elopmen ,
esea ch could b idge hese insigh s wi h he con empo a y globalized wo ld. his ad ancemen would
inspi e an in eg a ed pe spec i e on how ce eal ade in o ms cu en u baniza ion ends and policy-
making. he e o e, his s udy aims o es ablish a heo e ical amewo k and p o ide empi ical e idence
om a global da ase o ce eal ade and u baniza ion.
4l. Yang
3.Theo e ical amewo k
By e e ing o he analysis amewo k (hi e e al., 2020; Pe akos, 1989) and he modeling ideas o
ce eal ade and u baniza ion (ha is & oda o, 1970; Zhang & Wan, 2015), his s udy applies a classical
in e na ional heo y, ha is, compa a i e ad an age and esou ce endowmen heo ies, o in es iga e he
impac o ce eal ade on u baniza ion.
classical in e na ional ade heo y holds ha labo and land a e in eg al ac o s in ce eal p oduc ion.
gene ally, a coun y has a high e iciency in p oducing p oduc s wi h ela i ely abundan esou ces.
he e o e, economies wi h a high supply o labo and cul i a ed land engaged in ce eal p oduc ion ha e
a compa a i e ad an age in ce eal p oduc ion. Domes ic ce eal p oduc ion depends on he scale o he
labo o ce engaged in p oduc ion and he cul i a ed land a ea. he scale o ce eal p oduc ion is a p e-
equisi e o he ce eal ade. economies wi h a compa a i e ad an age in ce eal p oduc ion will expo
ce eal and bene i om ade.
he labo o ce engaged in ag icul u al p oduc ion is concen a ed in u al a eas o ce eal p oduc ion.
he mo e he labo o ce is engaged in u al ce eal p oduc ion, he lowe he amoun o labo o ce
en e ing ci ies o employmen and he mo e limi ed he p ocess o u baniza ion. simul aneously, he
la ge he a ea o cul i a ed land, he mo e nega i ely i will a ec he space equi ed o u ban de el-
opmen . a ce eal-expo ing coun y can eap he bene i s o in e na ional ade. howe e , a coun y
expo ing ce eal o he in e na ional ma ke also means ha he coun y bea s he p essu e o ce eal
p oduc ion o mee he needs o he in e na ional ce eal ma ke . he coun y mus ensu e ha a su i-
cien scale o he labo o ce is engaged in ce eal p oduc ion and ha he e is su icien cul i a ed land
a ea o ensu e ce eal p oduc ion.
a coun y expo s ce eal when i s domes ic ce eal supply ela i e o domes ic demand is abundan ,
whe eas i impo s ce eal when he domes ic demand o ce eal canno be me . a p econdi ion o
ensu ing an adequa e supply is su icien cul i a ed land and a labo o ce specializing in ce eal p oduc-
ion. U baniza ion is he p ocess by which people o iginally engaged in ag icul u al p oduc ion mo e
om u al a eas o ci ies o employmen . heo e ically, he ce eal ade will impac u baniza ion.
ce eal p oduc ion is he basic gua an ee o a coun y’s economic and social de elopmen ; a coun y
will no comple ely gi e up ce eal p oduc ion. howe e , i he domes ic ce eal supply is insu icien ,
economies wi hou a compa a i e ad an age in ce eal p oduc ion will impo ce eal. hus, when he
scale o domes ic ce eal p oduc ion is small, ag icul u al p oduc i i y is no high and he a ea o cul i-
a ed land is limi ed, a coun y’s ce eal demand can be me h ough he wo ld ce eal ma ke . ce eal
impo s elax he cons ain s on he scale o he domes ic labo o ce engaged in ce eal p oduc ion and
he a ea o cul i a ed land o ce eal p oduc ion, which is conduci e o p omo ing u baniza ion. howe e ,
he inc ease in ce eal impo s makes a coun y mo e dependen on o eign ce eal and he ising isk o
ood secu i y nega i ely impac s u baniza ion.
he o e all e ec o ce eal impo s and expo s on u baniza ion depends on he balance o posi i e
and nega i e in luences (see able 1). he ce eal ade’s e ec s on u baniza ion a e as ollows: ce eal
expo s bene i om ade and accele a e u baniza ion. ce eal impo s educe domes ic ce eal p oduc-
ion and accele a e u baniza ion. howe e , he inc ease in domes ic ce eal p oduc ion demand caused
by ce eal expo s educes ce eal-expo ing coun ies’ u baniza ion. his is because, o expo ce eal, he
coun y has o make su e he e is a labo o ce in u al a eas and cul i a ed land; an inc easing labo
o ce in u al a eas and cul i a ed land will educe i s u baniza ion. Mo eo e , he inc ease in ood
Table 1. e ec s o ce eal expo s and impo s on u baniza ion.
Ce eal ade Reason
impac on u baniza ion in De eloped
economies impac on u baniza ion in eme ging economies
expo s Domes ic ce eal p oduc ion is
su icien
Posi i e: gain ade bene i s and
accele a e u baniza ion
nega i e: P essu e o sus ain expo s limi u ban
g ow h
nega i e: High p oduc i i y educes u ban
labo demand
Posi i e: expo s und u ban in as uc u e and
se ices
impo s Domes ic ce eal p oduc ion is
insu icien
Posi i e: Reduces p essu e on domes ic
p oduc ion, os e ing u ban ac i i ies
Posi i e: suppo s u baniza ion by mee ing
u ban ood demand
nega i e: Leads o dependency and
economic ulne abili y
nega i e: Po en ial o inc eased ood secu i y
isks
Da a Sou ce: P epa ed by he au ho .
cOgen BUsiness & ManageMen 5
secu i y isk caused by ce eal impo s educes u baniza ion. speci ically, ce eal expo s can s imula e eco-
nomic bene i s and u ban g ow h bu may also in ensi y u al–u ban dispa i ies. con e sely, impo s
migh p omp u ban expansion by educing he demand o domes ic ce eal p oduc ion; none heless,
hey isk ood secu i y and u al li elihoods. he e o e, his s udy hypo hesizes ha ce eal expo s and
impo s a ec u baniza ion, and he impac is he e ogeneous (see Figu e 1).
he dis inc economic s uc u es be ween de eloped and eme ging economies shape he impac o
ce eal ade on u baniza ion. in de eloped na ions, ad anced ag icul u al echnology and in as uc u e
suppo e icien ce eal p oduc ion o expo wi hou hampe ing u ban labo ma ke s, acili a ing u ban
g ow h. Fo eme ging economies, he eliance on ce eal impo s highligh s he challenges o balancing
ag icul u al p oduc i i y wi h u ban ood equi emen s, emphasizing he need o policies ha enhance
ood secu i y while p omo ing u ban de elopmen . Fu he mo e, he dependence on ce eal impo s in
eme ging economies unde sco es he impo ance o global ade ne wo ks and he ulne abili ies asso-
cia ed wi h luc ua ions in global ce eal ma ke s.
4. Me hodology
4.1. Empi ical me hods
D awing om he li e a u e (ades & glaese , 1995; hi e e al., 2020; Zhang & Wan, 2015), his s udy
cons uc s he ollowing equa ion o in es iga e he impac o ce eal ade on u baniza ion. he model
in eg a es bo h mac oeconomic indica o s and sec o -speci ic a iables o cap u e he e ec s, highligh -
ing he di e en ial impac s o expo s and impo s on u baniza ion.
u aniza ion ade x
i i i i i i
b
= + + + +∑ +
δδδ α β ε
,
(1)
whe e
u baniza ioni
is measu ed by he p opo ion o u ban popula ion in he o al popula ion; and
adei
he model’s co e explana o y a iable, ep esen ing wo dimensions o ce eal ade: (1) he p opo -
ion o ce eal expo s o gDP, and (2) he p opo ion o ce eal impo s o gDP, hus dis inguishing he
impac o ce eal expo s and impo s on u baniza ion.
∑
x
i
ep esen s con ol a iables. he heo e ical amewo k unde pinning he selec ion o con ol a i-
ables d aws upon a blend o u ban sys em heo y, new economy heo ies and u al labo mig a ion
heo y. hese heo ies collec i ely elucida e he mul i ace ed na u e o u baniza ion, emphasizing he
signi icance o economic g ow h, demog aphic shi s, ag icul u al p oduc i i y and land use pa e ns.
he con ol a iables we e selec ed o accoun o hese aspec s, acili a ing a comp ehensi e analysis o
he ce eal ade’s impac on u baniza ion. his app oach ensu es ha he empi ical model cap u es he
complex in e play be ween ade, economic de elopmen and u ban g ow h, he eby suppo ing he
condi ional independence assump ion o he ins umen al a iable. he e o e, ollowing ades and glaese
Figu e 1. e ec s o ce eal ade on u baniza ion.
6l. Yang
(1995), hi e e al. (2020) and Zhang and Wan (2015), his s udy u ilizes pe -capi a gDP, o al popula ion,
and he p opo ion o ag icul u e and indus y o gDP as con ol a iables.
his s udy u he u ilizes a wo-s age leas -squa e eg ession, adding he con ol a iables pe -capi a
ce eal ou pu , p opo ion o a able land a ea o o al land a ea and pe -capi a a able land a ea. Mo eo e ,
we con ol he coun y ixed e ec s (
δ
i
), yea ixed e ec s (
δ
)
and coun y–yea ixed e ec s (
δ
i
)
.
ε
i
is
he andom e o e m.
4.2. Da a and a iables
his s udy u ilizes da a om 216 economies (see appendix 1) om 1990 o 2018.1 he s a is ics a e
ob ained om he Wo ld De elopmen indica o s (WDi) da abase. ables 2 and 3 epo he de ini ions,
uni s and desc ip i e s a is ics o he a iables. he selec ion o a iables in his s udy was designed o
e lec bo h he di ec and indi ec pa hways h ough which ce eal ade impac s u baniza ion. he p i-
ma y a iables o in e es , ce eal expo s and impo s, we e selec ed o cap u e he essence o in e na-
ional ade dynamics ele an o u ban de elopmen . con ol a iables, including gDP pe capi a, o al
popula ion, ce eal ou pu pe capi a and he p opo ion o ag icul u al land, we e selec ed based on
hei heo e ical and empi ical ele ance o u baniza ion p ocesses. hese a iables a e commonly
Table 2. Da a and de ini ions o a iables.
Ca ego y Va iable De ini ion uni o a iable Me hod o calcula ion
Dependen a iable
u baniza ion
u baniza ion % u ban popula ion/ o al
popula ion
Co e explana o y a iables
ex gdp
_Ce eal expo dependence %Ce eal expo s/gDP
im gdp
_Ce eal impo dependence %Ce eal impo s/gDP
Con ol a iables
logpe gdp
Pe -capi a gDP Cons an p ice usD in 2010 gDP/ o al popula ion
logpopula ion
o al popula ion 1000 people o al popula ion o each
coun y
ag i gdp
_P opo ion o ag icul u e in
gDP
% ag icul u e/gDP
indus y gdp
_P opo ion o indus y in
gDP
% indus y/gDP
loga ece eal
Ce eal p oduc ion pe capi a Kilog am pe hec a e Ce eal p oduc ion/ o al
popula ion
a land
_P opo ion o a able land o
o al land
%a able land a ea /land a ea
loga pe
_Pe -capi a a able land a ea Hec a e a able land a ea/ o al
popula ion
ppdensi y
Popula ion densi y Pe son/km2 o al popula ion/land a ea
de eloped
De eloped economy 0, 1 dummy acco ding o Wo ld Bank
classi ica ion
landlocked
inland coun y 0, 1 dummy no majo i e
Table 3. Desc ip i e s a is ics o a iables.
Va iable ob Mean s d. De Min Max
u baniza ion
6199 56.113 24.054 5.416 100.000
ex gdp
_4267 25.935 26.327 0.000 99.940
im gdp
_4261 14.192 7.596 0.362 62.416
pe gdp
5597 13,525.120 20,916.850 164.337 195,879.600
popula ion
6246 31,200 122,000 8.913 1,390,000
ppdensi y
6159 256.3863 1220.242 0.136 19,196
a ece eal
4915 2909.401 2416.331 34.300 28,130.100
a land
_5483 13.831 13.380 0.001 72.643
a p e _
5475 0.218 0.274 0.000 2.807
ag i gdp
_5212 13.155 12.506 0.025 79.042
indus y gdp
_5168 26.968 12.513 2.073 87.797
de eloped
6255 0.167 0.373 0 1
landlocked
6264 0.199 0.399 0 1
Da a Sou ce: WDi.
cOgen BUsiness & ManageMen 7
acknowledged in he li e a u e as key ac o s in luencing u ban g ow h, economic de elopmen and he
capaci y o a coun y o engage in in e na ional ade.
4.3. S ylized ac s
some s ylized ac s abou ce eal ade and u baniza ion a e epo ed in his subsec ion. U baniza ion o
he wo ld’s ce eal ading coun ies has shown di e ences, while gene ally, u baniza ion has inc eased.
U baniza ion o ce eal expo e s has inc eased om 1990 o 2018, bu he ange has been small. he
la ges ange was in he Uni ed s a es, wi h an inc ease o 9.23% ( om 75.3% in 1990 o 82.26% in
2018), whe eas Russia had he smalles , wi h an inc ease o less han 1.5% ( om 73.39% in 1990 o
74.43% in 2018). he u baniza ion o ce eal impo e s has inc eased as well, especially in china, nige ia
and Japan, wi h 2.24 imes, 1.70 imes and 1.18 imes highe le els o u baniza ion han hose in 1990,
espec i ely (Figu es 2 and 3).
5. Empi ical esul s
5.1. Baseline eg ession
able 4 displays he eg ession esul s.2 columns (1) o (6) con ol o coun y- ixed e ec s, yea ixed
e ec s and coun y–yea ixed e ec s. columns (2) and (5) con ol o he a io o ag icul u e o gDP, and
columns (3) and (6) con ol o indus y/gDP. Besides column (4), he coe icien s o he p opo ion o
ce eal impo s/gDP and he p opo ion o ce eal expo s/gDP in all eg essions a e posi i e and signi i-
can a he 1%–5% le el, indica ing ha ce eal expo s and impo s p omo e u baniza ion. combined
wi h columns (3) and (6), he coe icien s o he p opo ion o ce eal impo s/gDP a e la ge han ha
o ce eal expo s/gDP and a e signi ican a 5%. By u he compa ing he a iable coe icien s in col-
umns (3) and (6), we ind ha he coe icien o ce eal expo s/gDP is less han ha o ce eal impo s/
gDP, indica ing ha bo h ce eal expo s and impo s inc ease u baniza ion, wi h impo s ha ing a g ea e
ole. his conclusion is consis en wi h he heo e ical analysis abo e.
hese esul s show ha economies eap he ade bene i s om ce eal expo s, hus p omo ing u ban-
iza ion. hese p omo ing e ec s o ce eal expo s on u baniza ion exceed he possible u baniza ion mi -
iga ion e ec caused by he inc ease in domes ic ce eal p oduc ion caused by ce eal expo s. ce eal
Figu e 2. u baniza ion o he wo ld’s se en majo ce eal expo e s (1990–2018); uni : %. Sou ce: Wo ld Bank Wo ld
De elopmen indica o s Da abase. No e: Ce eal ading economies a e selec ed acco ding o he Repo on Wo ld Food
secu i y and nu i ion, issued by he uni ed na ions in July 2019 (uni ed na ions, 2019).
14 l. Yang
u baniza ion, whe e ade bene i s bols e u ban de elopmen wi hou comp omising ood secu i y.
india’s posi ion, balancing be ween expo dec eases and impo inc eases, illus a es a ansi ional
u baniza ion phase in luenced by bo h domes ic ag icul u al p oduc i i y and in e na ional ade
dynamics.
he indings om he case analyses esona e wi h he heo e ical amewo ks discussed in he li -
e a u e e iew, pa icula ly he u ban sys em and new economy heo ies and u al labo mig a ion
heo y. hese heo ies p opose ha ade can ca alyze u ban de elopmen by eshaping economic
s uc u es and labo dis ibu ion. he empi ical e idence con i ms hese p oposi ions, demons a ing
how ce eal ade, h ough i s complex in e play wi h economic de elopmen s ages and ag icul u al
p oduc i i y, dis inc i ely shapes u baniza ion pa e ns ac oss di e en coun ies. his di ec applica-
ion o heo e ical insigh s o empi ical da a p o ides a conc e e analysis o ade’s mul i ace ed impac
on u ban g ow h.
he compa a i e case analysis o e s aluable policy insigh s, pa icula ly o eme ging economies
g appling wi h he challenges o u baniza ion and ood secu i y. By delinea ing he speci ic oles o
ce eal expo s and impo s in u ban de elopmen , his s udy highligh s he need o nuanced ade
policies ha conside bo h he di ec and indi ec e ec s o ag icul u al ade on u ban g ow h.
addi ionally, i opens a enues o u u e esea ch o explo e simila ade-u baniza ion dynamics in o he
commodi ies and egions, o e ing a empla e o assessing ade’s b oade implica ions o u ban
de elopmen .
7. Conclusion
7.1. Majo conclusions
his s udy p o ides compelling e idence ha ce eal ade signi ican ly in luences global u baniza ion,
wi h no able di e ences in he e ec s o expo s e sus impo s. Ou analysis demons a es ha , while
bo h ce eal expo s and impo s os e u ban g ow h, he impac o impo s on u baniza ion is mo e
p onounced han ha o expo s. Fu he mo e, we unco e ha he ela ionship be ween ce eal ade
and u baniza ion is complex and mul i ace ed ac oss de eloped and eme ging economies bu consis-
en ly shows a posi i e co ela ion wi h u baniza ion a es. he indings highligh he c i ical ole o
ag icul u al land use e iciency in suppo ing u baniza ion, sugges ing a pi o al a ea o policy
in e en ion.
7.2. Policy sugges ions
(1) in eg a ing u baniza ion in o ce eal ade policy amewo ks. Policymake s should adop a comp e-
hensi e app oach ha inco po a es he dual objec i es o p omo ing u ban g ow h and ensu ing
ood secu i y in he de elopmen o ce eal ade policies. his in ol es assessing he u baniza ion
po en ial o ce eal ade ac i i ies and aligning hem wi h na ional u ban de elopmen s a egies.
coun ies should es ablish mul i-s akeholde pla o ms o ensu e ha ade policies a e esponsi e o
u baniza ion needs and challenges.
(2) s eng hening u al de elopmen and di e si ica ion. conce ning he cOViD-19 pandemic’s impac on
global ce eal supply chains and i s po en ial o slow u baniza ion p ocesses, go e nmen s, pa icula ly
in eme ging coun ies, should p io i ize u al de elopmen ini ia i es. his includes in es ing in ag i-
cul u al inno a ion and echnology ans e o enhance p oduc i i y and esilience. addi ionally, pol-
icies should suppo u al di e si ica ion by p omo ing al e na i e employmen oppo uni ies beyond
ag icul u e, such as in he ligh manu ac u ing sec o , o educe u al–u ban mig a ion p essu es and
os e balanced egional de elopmen .
(3) suppo o ce eal-expo ing egions. Fo egions dependen on ce eal expo s, i is c ucial o
implemen measu es ha p o ec u al li elihoods om he ola ili y o global ma ke s. his may
in ol e inancial ins umen s such as p ice s abiliza ion unds and insu ance schemes agains
expo income luc ua ions. Fu he mo e, in es ing in sus ainable ag icul u al p ac ices and
cOgen BUsiness & ManageMen 15
echnologies can enhance he compe i i eness o ce eal expo s while ensu ing en i onmen al
conse a ion.
(4) adap ing o he impac s o ce eal impo s on u baniza ion. he inding ha ce eal impo s ha e a
mo e signi ican posi i e impac on u baniza ion han expo s highligh s he ulne abili y o eme g-
ing coun ies o luc ua ions in global ce eal supply. o mi iga e hese isks, go e nmen s should
ocus on enhancing he domes ic ag icul u al sec o ’s capaci y h ough policy e o ms and in es -
men s ha encou age sus ainable in ensi ica ion and di e si ica ion o c op p oduc ion. his s a egy
aims o educe dependency on impo s while suppo ing u ban ood secu i y.
(5) c oss-sec o al coo dina ion o comp ehensi e policymaking. e ec i e policy esponses equi e coo -
dina ion ac oss ag icul u al, ade, u ban de elopmen and en i onmen al sec o s. By os e ing
c oss-sec o al collabo a ion, go e nmen s can ensu e ha policies a e syne gis ic and con ibu e o
achie ing sus ainable u baniza ion, ood secu i y and economic de elopmen goals.
7.3. Limi a ions and di ec ions o u u e esea ch
While his s udy has p o ided aluable insigh s in o he impac s o ce eal expo s and impo s on
u baniza ion, i acknowledges ce ain limi a ions ha o e a enues o u u e esea ch. One limi a ion
is he absence o an e alua i e s ance on whe he he u baniza ion d i en by he ce eal ade is
inhe en ly posi i e o sus ainable in he long e m. Fu u e s udies could hus bene i om in eg a ing
sus ainabili y assessmen s in o he analysis, examining how u baniza ion in luenced by ce eal ade
aligns wi h sus ainable de elopmen goals. Mo eo e , as global ade and u baniza ion pa e ns
e ol e, speci ically in he con ex o pos -pandemic eco e y, ongoing esea ch should moni o hese
ends o eme ging pa e ns, conside ing he po en ial o shi s in he ade-u baniza ion ela ion-
ship o e ime.
No es
1. analyzing a b oad spec um o coun ies allows us o explo e he impac s o ce eal ade on u baniza ion,
le e aging he la ges a ailable sample size in he da abase o comp ehensi e insigh s.
2. he model sepa a ion o impo s and expo s in his s udy is chosen o isola e he dis inc e ec s each ade
low has on u baniza ion, e lec ing he di e ences in hei espec i e mechanisms. Finding addi ional ins u-
men s ha mee he necessa y exogenei y and ele ance c i e ia is challenging owing o he in ica e na u e
o global ade dynamics and he limi ed a iables ha exclusi ely a ec one ade low wi hou in luencing
he o he . By main aining sepa a e models, we ensu e ha he in luences and policy implica ions o ce eal
expo s and impo s a e no con la ed, p o iding clea e insigh s in o economic s a egies in bo h de eloped
and eme ging economies.
3.
Kleibe gen Paap k LM−
es s he co ela ion be ween he ins umen al a iables and he endogenous a iables.
he null hypo hesis is ha he iden i ica ion o he ins umen al a iables is insu icien .
Kleibe gen Paap kWald F−
es s whe he he ins umen s a e weakly iden i ied. his es ejec s he null hypo hesis ha he ins umen s
a e weakly iden i ied. howe e , cau ion mus be used in conduc ing his es in he p esence o he e oscedas-
ici y, au oco ela ion, o clus e ing. in such a case, when he e o s may no be i.i.d., as a ule o humb, i is
ad isable o conclude ha weak iden i ica ion is no an issue i he F-s a is ic is a leas 10 (see s aige &
s ock, 1997).
HansenJ
s a is ics es whe he he ins umen al a iables a e o e -iden i ied. i he alue is ze o,
he model is iden i ied. Bo h he weak ins umen al a iable es and he un ecognizable inspec ion a e ela -
ed o obus ness checks in empi ical esea ch. hese es s a e c ucial o alida ing he eliabili y and alidi y
o he ins umen al a iables used in he analysis, ensu ing ha he ins umen s a e app op ia ely s ong and
co ec ly iden i ied, which di ec ly impac s he obus ness and c edibili y o he es ima ed e ec s in he s udy.
4. his s a i ica ion p o ides a me hodological e inemen , allowing o a a ge ed analysis o how ce eal ade
in luences u baniza ion ends wi hin dis inc economic classi ica ions, hus enhancing he obus ness o he
indings.
5. he dynamics o u baniza ion di e be ween de eloped and de eloping coun ies. Pa icula ly, he pe cen -
age o u ban popula ion ends o be la in cu en ly de eloped coun ies, whe e i has esul ed om an
inc ease in ag icul u al p oduc i i y and s uc u al change o e he las cen u ies. con e sely, booming u -
baniza ion in he global sou h ends o be associa ed wi h low ag icul u al p oduc i i y and u al po e y
push ac o s.
16 l. Yang
Disclosu e s a emen
none.
Funding
his wo k was suppo ed by he na ional social science Fund o china, ‘Resea ch on academic on ie heo y and
policy o he economics o s anda ds’ [g an no. 21FJlB039]; he china associa ion o ade in se ices, ‘Resea ch on
he impac o digi al ade on manu ac u ing p oduc ion e iciency’ [g an no. FWMYK -202429]; and he gansu
P o incial science and echnology P og am Fund, ‘Resea ch on p omo ing ade de elopmen be ween gansu and
coun ies along he silk Road h ough ha moniza ion o s anda ds’ [g an no. 23JRZa385].
Abou he au ho
Lijuan Yang, associa e p o esso , school o economics, lanzhou Uni e si y, lanzhou, china. he
esea ch in e es s include in e na ional ade and he economics o s anda ds.
ORCID
lijuan Yang h p://o cid.o g/0000-0003-2042-6431
Da a a ailabili y s a emen
he da a a e a ailable om he au ho upon easonable eques .
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Appendix 1: Sample economies in he wo ld
Eme ging economies: a ghanis an; albania; alge ia; ame ican samoa; ando a; angola; an igua and Ba buda; a uba;
aze baijan; a ab Wo ld; a gen ina; a menia; Bahamas; Bah ain; Bangladesh; Ba bados; Bela us; Belize; Benin; Be muda;
Bhu an; Boli ia; Bosnia and he zego ina; Bo swana; B azil; B i ish; Vi gin islands; B unei; Bulga ia; Bu kina Faso;
Bu undi; cabo Ve de; cambodia; came oon; ca ibbean small s a es; cayman; cen al a ican; chad; channel islands;
chile; china; colombia; como os; congo, Dem. Rep.; congo, Rep.; cos a Rica; co e d’i oi e; c oa ia; cuba; cu acao;
Djibou i; Dominica; Dominican Republic; ecuado ; egyp ; el sal ado ; equa o ial guinea; e i ea; es onia; eswa ini;
e hiopia; Fa oe islands; Fiji; F ench Polynesia; gabon; gambia; geo gia; ghana; g eenland; g enada; guam; gua emala;
guinea; guinea-Bissau; guyana; hai i; hondu as; hunga y; india; indonesia; i an; i aq; isle o Man; Jamaica; Jo dan;
Kazakhs an; Kenya; Ki iba i; Ko ea, Dem. People’s Rep.; Ko ea, Rep.; Koso o; Kuwai ; Ky gyz; lao; lebanon; leso ho;
libe ia; libya; Madagasca ; Malawi; Malaysia; Maldi es; Mali; Ma shall islands; Mau i ania; Mau i ius; Mexico; Mic onesia;
Moldo a; Monaco; Mongolia; Mon eneg o; Mozambique; Myanma ; namibia; nau u; nepal; new caledonia; nica agua;
nige ; nige ia; no h Macedonia; no he n Ma iana islands; Oman; Pakis an; Palau; Panama; Papua new guinea;
Pa aguay; Pe u; Philippines; Poland; Pue o Rico; Qa a ; Romania; Russia; Rwanda; samoa; sao ome and P incipe;
saudi a abia; senegal; se bia; seychelles; sie a leone; sin Maa en; solomon islands; somalia; sou h a ica; sou h
sudan; s i lanka; s . Ki s and ne is; s . lucia; s . Ma in; s . Vincen and he g enadines; sudan; su iname; sweden;
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sy ia; ajikis an; anzania; hailand; imo -les e; ogo; onga; inidad and obago; unisia; u key; u kmenis an;
u ks and caicos islands; u alu; Uganda; Uk aine; Uni ed a ab emi a es; U uguay; Uzbekis an; Vanua u; Venezuela;
Vie nam; Vi gin islands; Wes Bank and gaza; Yemen; Zambia; Zimbabwe.
De eloped economies: aus ia; aus alia; Belgium; canada; cyp us; czech Republic; Denma k; Finland; F ance;
ge many; g eece; iceland; i eland; is ael; i aly; Japan; la ia; liech ens ein; li huania; luxembou g; Mal a; Mo occo;
ne he lands; new Zealand; no way; Po ugal; san Ma ino; singapo e; slo ak; slo enia; spain; swi ze land; Uni ed
Kingdom; Uni ed s a es.
Appendix 2: Figu es 4–17
Figu e 4. u baniza ion o China and usa (1990–2018); uni : %. Sou ce: Wo ld Bank.
Figu e 5. o al popula ion o China and usa (1990–2018); uni : 1000 people. Sou ce: Wo ld Bank.
cOgen BUsiness & ManageMen 19
Figu e 7. P opo ion o ce eal impo s o gDP o China and usa (1990–2018); uni : %. Sou ce: Wo ld Bank.
Figu e 8. Pe -capi a ce eal ou pu o China and he usa (1990–2018); uni : kilog am pe hec a e. Sou ce: Wo ld Bank.
Figu e 6. P opo ion o ce eal expo s o gDP o China and usa (1990–2018); uni : %. Sou ce: Wo ld Bank.
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Figu e 9. P opo ion o cul i a ed land o o al land o China and he usa (1990–2018); uni : %. Sou ce: Wo ld Bank.
Figu e 10. Pe -capi a cul i a ed land o China and he usa (1990–2018); uni : hec a e. Sou ce: Wo ld Bank.
cOgen BUsiness & ManageMen 21
Figu e 11. u baniza ion o China and india (1990–2018); uni : %. Sou ce: Wo ld Bank.
Figu e 12. o al popula ion o China and india (1990–2018) 1000 people. Sou ce: Wo ld Bank.
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Figu e 13. P opo ion o ce eal expo s o gDP o China and india (1990–2018); uni : %. Sou ce: Wo ld Bank.
Figu e 14. P opo ion o ce eal impo s o gDP o China and india (1990–2018); uni : %. Sou ce: Wo ld Bank.
cOgen BUsiness & ManageMen 23
Figu e 15. Pe -capi a ce eal ou pu o China and india (1990–2018); uni : kilog am pe hec a e. Sou ce: Wo ld Bank.
Figu e 16. P opo ion o cul i a ed land o o al land a ea o China and india (1990–2018); uni : %. Sou ce: Wo ld Bank.
