Aydın, Yaşa
Resea ch Repo
Geopoli ics on wheels: The eposi ioning o he Tu kish
au omo i e indus y
SWP Commen , No. 45/2025
P o ided in Coope a ion wi h:
S i ung Wissenscha und Poli ik (SWP), Ge man Ins i u e o In e na ional and Secu i y A ai s,
Be lin
Sugges ed Ci a ion: Aydın, Yaşa (2025) : Geopoli ics on wheels: The eposi ioning o he Tu kish
au omo i e indus y, SWP Commen , No. 45/2025, S i ung Wissenscha und Poli ik (SWP), Be lin,
h ps://doi.o g/10.18449/2025C45
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NO.
45
NOVEMBER 2025
In oduc ion
Geopoli ics on Wheels:
The Reposi ioning o he Tu kish
Au omo i e Indus y
Yaşa Aydın
Tu key is no only an impo an ma ke o Ge man au omobiles – i also expo s a
signi ican olume o au omobiles and componen s o Ge many. Th ough hei in e-
g a ion in o Ge man supply chains, Tu kish supplie s a e making a signi ican con-
ibu ion o he in e na ional compe i i eness o he Ge man au omo i e indus y.
Howe e , he Tu kish au omo i e indus y is acing complex economic, echnological,
and geopoli ical challenges, including ade ba ie s, in ensi ica ion o in e na ional
compe i ion, and mac oeconomic imbalances. These challenges a e now becoming
mo e ele an o he Ge man au omo i e indus y as well as he coun y’s secu i y
policy, as hey pose secu i y and geopoli ical isks and could weaken ies be ween he
coun ies. Tu kish ca manu ac u e s and go e nmen ep esen a i es a e espond-
ing o hese challenges wi h a s a egic eposi ioning owa ds digi alisa ion and elec-
i ica ion, which is c ea ing new oppo uni ies o coope a ion wi h Ge many.
In July 2024, he Tu kish go e nmen
eached an ag eemen wi h he Chinese
elec ic ehicle manu ac u e Build You
D eams (BYD) o de elop a p oduc ion
acili y in Manisa, a p o incial capi al in
wes e n Tu key nea he po ci y o İzmi .
E en be o e ha , he Chinese ca manu ac-
u e Speedy Wo king Mo o s (SWM Mo o s)
had announced simila plans o expand
in o he Tu kish ma ke . Fu he Chinese
di ec in es men is on he agenda: Acco d-
ing o he Tu kish Minis e o Indus y,
Mehme Fa ih Kacı , he Chinese au omo-
bile manu ac u e Che y is in nego ia ions
o es ablish a p oduc ion acili y in Samsun.
The planned in es men is expec ed o be
simila in scale o ha o BYD. Tu key’s
a ac i eness as a p oduc ion loca ion is
u he demons a ed by he Ge man-F ench
g oup Fo ia’s planned in es men . As he
wo ld’s se en h-la ges au omo i e sup-
plie , i gene a es abou one-qua e o i s
e enue in China and plans o es ablish a
supply ac o y in Tu key. In doing so, i
aims o compensa e o he decline in o de s
om Eu opean ehicle manu ac u e s and
o p omo e he in eg a ion o Chinese sup-
plie s in o al e na i e supply chains.
SWP Commen 45
No embe 2025
2
Such de elopmen s uel op imism abou
he sec o ’s p ospec s, ye conceal signi ican
economic and secu i y challenges.
Realignmen be ween he mobili y
ansi ion and geopoli ics
The au omo i e indus y, a cen al pilla o
he Tu kish economy, is acing inc easing
compe i i e p essu e. Au omake s and he
go e nmen a e esponding o he mobili y
ansi ion and geopoli ical shi s by s a e-
gically eposi ioning hemsel es owa ds
digi alisa ion and elec i ica ion. This e-
qui es in es men s in new echnologies
and p opulsion sys ems, as well as s onge
in eg a ion in o e ol ing in e na ional sup-
ply chains. Howe e , he adap a ion e o s
and long- e m s a egies o he Tu kish
au omo i e indus y a e being hampe ed
by mone a y and legal unce ain ies, egu-
la o y hu dles, and poli ical ola ili y in
he coun y.
G ow h, inno a ion, and
expo powe
Since he in oduc ion o he Cus oms Union
be ween Tu key and he Eu opean Union
(EU) in 1996, he EU has become Tu key’s
mos impo an ading pa ne . Among
he EU coun ies, Ge many is Tu key’s key
ading pa ne . Rega ding he au omo i e
indus y, Tu key’s a i - ee access o he
EU single ma ke has, on he one hand,
con ibu ed o an inc ease in ehicle p o-
duc ion in Tu key: om 300,000 ehicles
in 2002 o 1,332,755 in 2024, o which
980,341 we e passenge ca s. On he o he
hand, he coun y bene i s om deepe
in eg a ion in o Eu opean alue chains and
has become an a ac i e p oduc ion loca-
ion o in e na ional au omobile manu ac-
u e s and supplie s.
The la ges playe s in he Tu kish au o-
mo i e indus y include join en u es wi h
in e na ional ca manu ac u e s: Anadolu
Isuzu, TOFAŞ-S ellan is, Fo d O osan, BMC
(B i ish Mo o Co po a ion, cu en ly a
Tu kish-Qa a i join en u e), Me cedes-
Benz Tü k, Hyundai Assan, MAN Tü kiye,
Oyak Renaul , and Tü k T ak ö . In 2024,
Tu key anked wel h wo ldwide among
passenge ca p oduce s, ou h in Eu ope,
and second in Eu ope o comme cial ehicle
p oduc ion.
The au omo i e sec o makes an impo -
an con ibu ion o Tu key’s economic
g ow h by s imula ing demand in nume -
ous ups eam indus ies. Simila o Ge -
many, i c ea es well-paid jobs, which has
a posi i e impac on Tu key’s o e all pu -
chasing powe . Mo e han 56,000 people
a e employed di ec ly in he au omo i e
indus y, and o e 550,000 wo k in up-
s eam and downs eam sec o s. Indus ies
such as me allu gy, plas ics p ocessing,
elec onics, and logis ics a e de eloping in
pa allel wi h he g ow h o he au omo i e
sec o . Companies in his sec o a e in es -
ing in echnological inno a ion – he e
a e 167 esea ch and de elopmen cen es
na ionwide – he eby s eng hening he
coun y’s echnological in as uc u e and
inno a i e capaci y in a sus ainable way.
A he same ime, he au omo i e indus-
y is one o Tu key’s mos impo an expo
sec o s and is con ibu ing owa ds educing
he coun y’s high ade de ici . Acco ding
o he Au omo i e Indus y Expo e s’ Asso-
cia ion (OİB), au omobile expo s eached a
olume o US$36.65 billion in 2024, an
inc ease o 6 pe cen compa ed wi h he
p e ious yea . The au omo i e sec o hus
accoun ed o 17.3 pe cen o o al Tu kish
expo s; o almos wo decades i has held
he op posi ion in Tu key’s expo s a is ics.
Almos wo- hi ds o Tu key’s au omobile
expo s wen o he EU in 2024, which is
he la ges ma ke o Tu kish ehicles and
componen s. Thi een pe cen o Tu kish
au omo i e expo s we e des ined o Ge -
many, making i he single la ges impo -
ing coun y (see Table, page 3).
The deepe in eg a ion o he Tu kish
au omo i e indus y in o he EU ma ke –
pa icula ly he supply chains o he EU and
Ge many – s ems om he Cus oms Union.
Tu key s eng hens he in e na ional com-
pe i i eness o he Ge man au omo i e
indus y in se e al ways: Tu kish supplie s
SWP Commen 45
No embe 2025
3
deli e componen s eliably and cos -e ec-
i ely, while he coun y o e s compe i i e
p oduc ion condi ions; and, as a logis ics
hub, i acili a es access o ma ke s o in e -
es o he Ge man au omo i e indus y, o
example in A ica.
Challenges and s agna ion
Ne e heless, he Tu kish au omo i e
indus y aces h ee challenges.
Economic challenges: In la ion has, on he
one hand, inc eased domes ic demand o
ca s, pa ly because mo e consume s now
iew he pu chase o a ehicle as an in es -
men . A he same ime, he ola ili y o he
na ional cu ency, high consume axes,
and he ise in he co po a e ax a e om
25 o 30 pe cen a e dampening bo h in-
es men appe i e and consume con idence
in Tu key. A close look e eals ha indus-
y p o i s a e declining, while compe i i e-
ness and p oduc i i y a e dec easing, pa ly
due o ising p oduc ion, anspo , and
dis ibu ion cos s. The s agna ion end in
he au omo i e sec o is also e lec ed in
he sha p d op in a e -sales e enues.
Poli ical, legal, and en i onmen al challenges:
The Tu kish au omo i e indus y is bu -
dened by EU en i onmen al egula ions,
pa icula ly s ic e CO₂ limi s. These e-
qui e manu ac u e s o adap hei p oduc-
ion p ocesses and ange o a ailable models,
which necessi a es subs an ial in es men
in low-emission echnologies. The sec o
mus he e o e in es in mo e en i onmen-
ally iendly p oduc ion me hods, al e -
na i e d i e sys ems such as e-mobili y,
and ci cula economy concep s. The EU’s
scheduled ban on he sale o new ca s wi h
in e nal combus ion engines om 2035 is
c ea ing signi ican planning unce ain y.
As a esul , he demand o con en ionally
powe ed ehicles could decline conside -
ably.
Addi ional unce ain ies a e eme ging
due o he poli ical clima e in Tu key.
Rep essi e measu es aimed a consolida ing
he egime – as in he case o he a es o
Is anbul’s mayo , Ek em İmamoğlu – can
unde mine ma ke con idence, igge
capi al ou lows, and weaken he li a.
Technological challenges: The shi owa ds
elec ic powe ains is o cing he Tu kish
Table
Expo s o he Tu kish au omo i e indus y, 2021–2024 (in billion US dolla s)
2021
2022
2023
2024
Change om
2023 o 2024
in %
Sha e
in 2024
in %
Supplie indus y
11.80
12.98
14.15
14.88
5
41
Au omobiles
9.50
9.26
11.06
12.37
12
34
Vehicles o he anspo o goods
5.33
5.05
4.90
5.58
14
15
La ge and mini-buses
1.27
1.47
2.31
2.57
11
7
Semi- aile ac o s
1.03
1.76
2.15
1.25
-42
3
To al
28.93
30.52
34.57
36.65
6
100
Expo s o he EU
16.20
17.35
20.93
21.77
4
59
Expo s o Ge many
3.22
4.38
4.85
4.86
0
13
Sou ces: Uludağ Au omo i e Indus y Expo e s’ Associa ion (OİB), “Expo Figu es”, h ps://oib.o g. /en/expo - igu es.h ml
(accessed 24 Oc obe 2025); In e na ional T ade Cen e, T ade Map, “Lis o Impo ing Ma ke s om Eu opean Union (EU 27)
o a P oduc Expo ed by Tü kiye”, h p://bi .ly/47uAHxY (accessed 29 Oc obe 2025).
SWP Commen 45
No embe 2025
4
au omo i e indus y o in es mo e hea ily
in he esea ch, de elopmen , and p oduc-
ion o elec ic ehicles, as well as in au ono-
mous mobili y, digi alisa ion, and connec -
ed sys ems. Expe s wa n ha , o he wise,
Tu key could be educed o he ole o an
assembly loca ion. New egula o y equi e-
men s such as he EU Ba e y Passpo could
c ea e addi ional obs acles. I , o example,
ba e y cells, in e e s, and so wa e a e
only assembled in Tu key, he e is he isk
o a eg ession o low- alue c ea ion, limi -
ing he Tu kish au omo i e indus y’s ole
in global p oduc ion chains o basic manu-
ac u ing.
Adap ing o a new echnological
and geopoli ical eali y
In coope a ion wi h ca manu ac u e s and
supplie s, he Tu kish go e nmen is pu -
suing he goal o s eng hening he in e -
na ional compe i i eness o i s au omo i e
indus y. The main objec i e is o expand
i s ma ke p esence in Eu ope and o posi-
ion Tu key s a egically as a leading
loca ion o e-mobili y – o ins ance, by
speci ically a ac ing o eign in es o s o
he coun y. The s a egic eo ien a ion also
includes building independen indus ial
capabili ies and u he de eloping he
na ional elec ic ehicle b and, Togg, which
made i s in e na ional debu in Sep embe
2025 when i en e ed he Ge man ma ke .
In doing so, Tu key is inc easingly posi ion-
ing he coun y as a sel -con iden indus-
ial playe ha no longe wishes o see i s
ole limi ed o ha o a supplie o assem-
bly loca ion.
A he cen e o his s a egy is he delib-
e a e ec ui men o manu ac u e s om
non-Wes e n coun ies as well. In his ega d,
he ag eemen wi h he Chinese elec ic
ehicle manu ac u e BYD has d awn pa -
icula a en ion: The company is es ablish-
ing a manu ac u ing plan in Tu key – a
signi ican s ep owa ds s eng hening he
coun y’s posi ion as a p oduc ion hub o
e-mobili y.
Wo king in a ou o he Tu kish au o-
mo i e indus y is he ac ha he Tu kish
b and Togg has managed o hold i s g ound,
despi e he ma ke en y o BYD and Tesla:
I main ained i s high sales igu es in 2024
and emains a key playe in he elec ic
ehicle ma ke , whe e he e has been a no-
iceable up end in gene al, u he unde -
sco ing he s uc u al ans o ma ion o he
indus y.
In 2024, o al sales in Tu key we e as
ollows: By a he la ges ma ke sha e was
held by pe ol-powe ed ehicles a 60.1 pe
cen . Howe e , plug-in hyb ids (wi h elec i-
cally assis ed combus ion engines) eco ded
he s onges g ow h, wi h hei ma ke
sha e ising o 18.8 pe cen , placing hem
o he i s ime in second place in he
powe ain anking. Diesel ehicles con-
inued o lose impo ance, wi h hei ma -
ke sha e alling o 9.8 pe cen . Sales o
elec ic ehicles su ged compa ed o 2023,
om 72,179 o 105,315 uni s. As a esul ,
elec ic ehicles su passed he 10 pe cen
h eshold o he i s ime, eaching a ma -
ke sha e o 10.7 pe cen . The mos in-
demand model was he Togg T10X, he i s
domes ically p oduced elec ic ehicle,
wi h 30,094 uni s sold. In second place was
he Tesla Model Y wi h 11,534 uni s, while
he BYD A o 3 anked eigh h wi h 2,252
ehicles sold.
E-mobili y in Tu key is s ongly p omo ed
h ough ax incen i es. In pa icula , egu-
la ions unde he Special Consump ion Tax
(ÖTV) ha e c ea ed incen i es o he p o-
duc ion and impo o elec ic ehicles. As
a esul , nume ous manu ac u e s began
impo ing models ha we e subjec o he
educed ax a e o 10 pe cen – ehicles
wi h a powe ou pu below 160 kW. This
egula ion has acili a ed ma ke access o
a o dable elec ic ehicles: 81 pe cen
o hose sold in 2024 ell in o his pe o -
mance ca ego y.
Hyb id ehicles a e also bene i ing om
ax incen i es, which ha e no iceably
inc eased hei ma ke sha e. In addi ion,
ade policy measu es ha e been imple-
men ed: On 31 Decembe 2024, he Tu kish
go e nmen decided o aise he addi ional
a i on ehicles p oduced in China om
40 o 50 pe cen . This measu e, e ec i e
SWP Commen 45
No embe 2025
5
om 2025, is aimed a bo h p o ec ing
indus ial policy and con olling ma ke
playe s.
In e dependence wi h China –
challenges and oppo uni ies
In e ms o economic and echnology
policy, Anka a is inc easingly o ien ing
i sel owa ds China wi hou u ning away
om he Wes . Tu key is explo ing oppo -
uni ies o a deepe pa ne ship wi h
China, pa icula ly in 5G and ba e y ech-
nology. In line wi h his s a egy, he Tu k-
ish go e nmen has opened i s ma ke o
Chinese ca manu ac u e s and supplie s.
A he same ime, i is p omo ing a lagship
p ojec wi h he na ional elec ic ehicle
b and, Togg, suppo ed by go e nmen sub-
sidies and impo es ic ions on o eign
compe i o s.
The cen al challenge o Tu key is o
educe i s dependence on o eign o iginal
equipmen manu ac u e s (OEMs), inc ease
local alue c ea ion, and de elop a compe i-
i e cos s uc u e – ideally wi hou elying
on pe manen s a e suppo o p o ec ionis
measu es.
Chinese manu ac u e s a e becoming
inc easingly impo an in Tu key, and hei
ma ke sha e is expec ed o con inue ising,
suppo ed by s a egic in es men s in local
p oduc ion and dis ibu ion. Tu key emains
an a ac i e sales ma ke : In 2024, a o al
o 1,238,509 ehicles we e sold, including
980,341 passenge ca s and 258,168 ligh
comme cial ehicles. O he passenge
ca s pu chased in Tu key, 290,675 we e
domes ically p oduced, while 689,666 we e
impo ed. This is a clea indica ion o he
s ong demand o o eign b ands.
Fo Chinese ca manu ac u e s, Tu key
now also se es as a sp ingboa d in o he
Eu opean ma ke . The es ablishmen o
local p oduc ion capaci ies in Tu key is
pa ly being d i en by he aim o ci cum-
en ing EU-imposed a i s on Chinese elec-
ic ehicles. Thanks o he Cus oms Union
wi h he EU, ehicles p oduced in Tu key
ha e a i - ee access o he EU single ma -
ke – a clea compe i i e ad an age ha
Chinese companies a e le e aging o hei
expansion in o Eu ope.
Rega ding he s a egic ealignmen o
he Tu kish au omo i e sec o , wo ques-
ions a ise: Will Tu key succeed in shaping
i s g owing in e dependence wi h China
in e ms o indus ial policy in such a way
ha i esul s in an independen echnolog-
ical upg ade? And how likely is i ha his
could gi e ise o a new o m o ex e nal
dependency?
Economic ad an ages and
disad an ages
Economic expe s see eal oppo uni ies
wi h he ma ke en y o Chinese ca manu-
ac u e s in Tu key. Fo example, he ex-
pansion o cha ging and se ice ne wo ks
could be accele a ed, which would also
bene i he na ional b and, Togg. C i ics,
howe e , wa n ha inc easing economic
in eg a ion wi h Chinese companies could
in ensi y compe i ion, displace domes ic
manu ac u e s, and os e s a egic depend-
encies. Ne e heless, no all o hese con-
ce ns can be subs an ia ed by he cu en
ma ke s uc u e.
Fi s ly, he Tu kish au omo i e ma ke
is di e si ied, bo h in e ms o supply and
demand. Secondly, he ma ke sha e o
Chinese b ands emains limi ed. Al hough
BYD d ew a en ion by selling 6,591 ehicles
in he inal 32 days o 2024, o he manu ac-
u e s such as Ne a we e o ced o wi hd aw
om he Tu kish ma ke due o low sales
and highe a i s. Che y anked i h among
he bes -selling b ands in 2024, ye i s sales
declined as a esul o he new a i s. A
he end o 2024, as men ioned abo e, he
Tu kish go e nmen aised he addi ional
a i on Chinese ehicles om 40 o 50 pe
cen o p o ec domes ic p oduc ion.
The Tu kish au omo i e indus y would
only ace a subs an ial h ea om Chinese
manu ac u e s i a i ba ie s we e signi i-
can ly educed o emo ed. In such a sce-
na io, Chinese p oduce s could quickly
expand hei ma ke sha es a he expense
o domes ic manu ac u e s such as Togg. To
SWP Commen 45
No embe 2025
6
emain compe i i e unde hese condi ions,
Togg would con inue o ely on s a e sup-
po and egula o y assis ance.
Tu kish ca manu ac u e s and supplie s
expec ha he planned BYD p oduc ion
acili y, once ope a ional, will p omo e
echnology ans e , s eng hen local alue
c ea ion, and u he di e si y Tu key’s
in eg a ion in o global supply chains, pa -
icula ly in e-mobili y. Collabo a ion in he
o m o join en u es in ba e y p oduc ion
appea s especially p omising, as Chinese
manu ac u e s hold a leading global posi-
ion in key echnologies such as ba e y
cells, powe elec onics, and sola modules.
This is likely o no ably inc ease compe i-
i e p essu e on he Eu opean au omo i e
indus y – no only globally, bu also wi h-
in he EU single ma ke , o which Tu key
has access h ough he Cus oms Union.
A he same ime, coope a ion wi h
China holds undamen al isks, such as a
deepening dependence on Chinese ech-
nology and an inc ease in he ade de ici ,
no o men ion exis ing geopoli ical en-
sions. Should he ade con lic be ween
China, he EU, and he Uni ed S a es esca-
la e, his could lead o es ic ions ha
impac he Tu kish au omo i e sec o .
Secu i y policy consequences
I canno be uled ou ha he con lic
be ween Washing on and Beijing in he
ield o digi ally connec ed ehicles will
in ensi y. In his case, close coope a ion
be ween he Tu kish and Chinese au o-
mo i e indus ies could lead o ensions
in Tu key’s ela ions wi h he EU and he
Uni ed S a es. The US go e nmen is
al eady conside ing a ban on impo ing
ehicles om China and o he coun ies
deemed secu i y isks. This is jus i ied on
he g ounds o na ional secu i y in e es s,
which could be h ea ened by elec ic
ehicles. Ce ain elec ic ehicles oday a e
a mo e han jus a means o anspo :
They a e highly connec ed IT sys ems. They
ea u e acking and da a collec ion capabil-
i ies, making hem poli ically and s a egi-
cally ele an – bo h as po en ial a ge s
o cybe a acks and espionage, and as a
medium o su eillance.
Mass su eillance: Digi ally connec ed
ehicles can collec ex ensi e pe sonal da a,
including d i ing beha iou , mo emen
pa e ns, esiden ial and wo k loca ions, as
well as business and p i a e con ac s. In
au ho i a ian s a es such as China, he use
o such da a is no subjec o independen
o e sigh . Ins ead, i is e alua ed by he
s a e – o example o moni o indi iduals
li ing ab oad o o delibe a ely in luence
poli ical, economic, o socie al ac o s.
Such access o da a en ails signi ican
isks, especially in coun ies wi h weak
ule-o -law p o ec ions, like Tu key. The
abili y o c ea e digi al shadow p o iles o e
a long pe iod would h ea en no only he
p i acy o indi idual use s bu also collec-
i e secu i y. The possibili y ha Chinese
au ho i ies could gain access o sensi i e
secu i y o mili a y da a h ough ehicle
echnologies deployed in Tu key canno be
uled ou .
Espionage: Digi ally connec ed ehicles –
equipped wi h mic ophones, came as, and
senso s – ha e he capabili y o collec
in o ma ion co e ly. They can ack loca-
ions, mo emen pa e ns, and e en
con e sa ions – hus losing hei unc ion
as p o ec ed spaces o sensi i e communi-
ca ion, whe he in business, poli ical, o
diploma ic con ex s. In he case o close
echnological coope a ion wi h China, he e
is a isk ha his in as uc u e could be
used o s a e-di ec ed espionage. The
deploymen o Chinese ehicle echnologies
in Tu key would no only endange na ional
secu i y; i Chinese ac o s we e o gain access
o secu i y- ele an in o ma ion h ough
such sys ems, he consequences could ex-
end o he No h A lan ic T ea y O ganiza-
ion (NATO), he EU, and he Uni ed S a es.
Sabo age: The abili y o emo ely con ol
mode n elec ic ehicles enables he possi-
bili y o digi al sabo age. Cybe a acks could
delibe a ely disable nume ous ehicles in
u ban a eas simul aneously – wi h se e e
consequences o a ic low, eme gency
se ices, and secu i y au ho i ies. A acks
on he ene gy in as uc u e would be pa -
SWP Commen 45
No embe 2025
7
icula ly ha m ul: I cha ging ope a ions
o housands o ehicles a e coo dina ed o
s a o s op simul aneously, i could des a-
bilise he powe g id. Addi ional isks a ise
om bidi ec ional cha ging, whe eby
ehicles eed elec ici y back in o he g id;
his could se e as a po en ial en y poin o
dis up he powe supply and o he c i ical
in as uc u e.
I is concei able ha his po en ial o
sabo age could be used as a s a egic means
o exe ing p essu e. Beijing could be em-
powe ed o exe poli ical o economic
in luence o e Anka a h ough echnical
access poin s, o example in mul ila e al
bodies o secu i y policy decision-making
p ocesses. These isks a ec no only Tu -
key’s na ional secu i y bu also ca y s a-
egic implica ions o NATO as an o ganisa-
ion as well as Tu key’s pa ne s in NATO.
Ou look and po en ial cou ses o
ac ion o Ge many
The ealignmen o he Tu kish au omo i e
indus y is no an isola ed, pu ely economic
s a egy. I is embedded in a p ocess o
ene gy policy and echnological ans o ma-
ion, as well as in a complex global-poli ical
cons ella ion in which geopoli ical and geo-
economic logic inc easingly p e ails.
The digi alisa ion, deca bonisa ion, and
au oma ion o mobili y a e closely linked o
secu i y- ele an echnologies and equi e
legal egula ion. In his con ex , he au o-
mo i e indus y is inc easingly becoming
he ocus o secu i y policy conside a ions,
as he implica ions o deepe coope a ion
be ween Tu key and China mus be gi en
g ea e weigh wi hin he amewo k o
EU in es men assessmen s. This, in u n,
equi es he in elligen in eg a ion o indus-
ial and secu i y policy.
Tu kish indus ial policy in gene al, and
he ealignmen o he au omo i e indus y
in pa icula , ollow bo h geopoli ical and
geoeconomic logic. The ag eemen wi h
BYD o es ablish a p oduc ion acili y in
Tu key s ems om he same s a egic
calculus as he acquisi ion o he Russian
S-400 missile de ence sys em and he co-
ope a ion wi h Rosa om in he cons uc ion
o Tu key’s i s nuclea powe plan . In
all o hese cases, he aim is o di e si y
op ions o coope a ion in echnology, he
economy, and geopoli ical ma e s.
A he same ime, Anka a is pu suing an
indus ial policy s a egy h ough which
Tu key aims o play a key ole in he Eu o-
pean e-mobili y a chi ec u e. The coun y
seeks o es ablish i sel as a egional p oduc-
ion hub and anspo co ido be ween
Eu ope, Asia, and A ica, ac i ely cou ing
Chinese capi al and echnological know-
how.
Fo Ge man ca manu ac u e s, Tu key
se es bo h as a p oduc ion loca ion and
a sales ma ke . Tu kish supplie s o m an
essen ial pa o Ge man supply chains.
Ge man decision-make s and au omake s
should he e o e closely moni o de elop-
men s in he Tu kish au omo i e sec o ,
especially since he Ge man au omo i e
indus y aces simila challenges o hose
in Tu key and is pu suing compa able s a -
egies o s eng hen i s in e na ional com-
pe i i eness.
Fi s , he Ge man au omo i e sec o is
unde going a p o ound ans o ma ion.
Technological uphea als a e weighing on
he indus y, pa icula ly because p og ess
in e-mobili y is slow, supply chains ace
dis up ions, and echnological gaps mus
be closed. Second, he Ge man ca indus y
aces in ense compe i i e p essu e. Chinese
manu ac u e s such as BYD o e echnolog-
ically ad anced, ye cos -e ec i e elec ic
ehicles and a e agg essi ely expanding
in o Eu ope. Ge man au omo i e b ands
a e losing ma ke sha e and mus s uggle
o main ain hei posi ions in Eu ope,
No h Ame ica, and China. Al hough he
Uni ed S a es has empo a ily lowe ed
impo a i s on ca s om he EU, he e is
s ill a isk o ade policy escala ion. Thi d,
EU a i s a e o cing Chinese manu ac u -
e s o eloca e p oduc ion close o he EU
single ma ke , including Tu key, in o de o
expo om he e o he EU.
Gi en hese challenges, i seems p uden
o he Ge man au omo i e indus y o
SWP Commen 45
No embe 2025
8
expand coope a ion wi h he Tu kish ca
indus y. This would also be a ac i e o
Tu key, which mus in es mo e hea ily in
esea ch and de elopmen , e-mobili y p o-
duc ion, au onomous mobili y, digi alisa-
ion, and connec ed sys ems. Tu kish com-
panies, howe e , do no possess su icien
inancial esou ces o unde ake hese
in es men s on hei own.
The Ge man go e nmen could pa e he
way o deepe Ge man-Tu kish coope a-
ion. Fo ins ance, i could emo e ins i u-
ional ba ie s, acili a e isas o Tu kish
na ionals and en ep eneu s, and ad oca e –
a he EU le el – o a mode nisa ion o
he Cus oms Union ag eemen . This e o m
would also c ea e he oppo uni y o close
egula o y gaps o p e en Tu key om
being misused as a ansi poin o Chinese
elec ic ehicles in o he EU.
E en mo e han he ede al go e nmen ,
howe e , he p i a e sec o is being called
upon o con ibu e owa ds s abilising bila -
e al economic ela ions in he au omo i e
indus y h ough cons uc i e and long-
e m coope a ion.
D Yaşa Aydın is a esea che a SWP’s Cen e o Applied Tu kish S udies (CATS).
The Cen e o Applied Tu key S udies (CATS) is unded by
S i ung Me ca o and he Ge man Fede al Fo eign O ice.
This wo k is licensed
unde CC BY 4.0
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S i ung Wissenscha und
Poli ik
Ge man Ins i u e o
In e na ional and
Secu i y A ai s
Ludwigki chpla z 3–4
10719 Be lin
Telephone +49 30 880 07-0
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ISSN (P in ) 1861-1761
ISSN (Online) 2747-5107
DOI: 10.18449/2025C45
(English e sion o
SWP-Ak uell 45/2025)
